I know that large vendors will find the average rate of expedition lands per case and will do as I have said. How do you think singles hit the market? Vendors and events do most of the pack cracking for the secondary market. Not every player buys a box. In fact doing so isn't at all economical in this game. Just to clarify it wont be your LGS doing this I'm talking about the largest vendors.
When you're talking about completely random, probabilities don't work that way. Cards cut from a sheet aren't completely random though. So yeah, if someone pulls a bling land, the last thing you want is the next pack in line. Should make for an interesting situation in some LGSs.
Not necessarily. I once opened 2 copies of Purphoros in Theros draft from packs that were together in their box. I also bought two consecutive boxes of Dark Ascension and pulled 9 mythics from one and 8 from the other, a total of 3 of which were foil.
Obviously the chances of that kind of thing happening are pretty slim, but still, it does happen.
Cards cut from a sheet aren't completely random though. So yeah, if someone pulls a bling land, the last thing you want is the next pack in line.
I admit I don't know the step-by-step process from sheet to box, but boxes couldn't be stocked without a randomization effect somewhere along the line or drafts would be considerably more predictable than they are. And once any sort of randomization is tossed into the mix, with a population as large as the MtG print run, the procedure Keats describes makes 0 sense.
When you're talking about completely random, probabilities don't work that way. Cards cut from a sheet aren't completely random though. So yeah, if someone pulls a bling land, the last thing you want is the next pack in line. Should make for an interesting situation in some LGSs.
Implying what exactly?
If one of the individuals sitting next to me open an expidition I ought to rage quit because I'm even less likely to get one?
If people are buying packs in hopes of getting a type of card that shows up once every 400+ packs then they are idiots
Packs are for drafting, children and the occasional "let's try my luck, I have five bucks go spare"
Once cut, the individual cards from the sheet are randomly placed, it's only in the very beginning of the process that the sheets uniformity has any effect.
My prediction is that these will be about the price of revised duals for the fetches, a little less for the shocks and the Tangolands will be about $25. We might see Tarn spike to $300-$500 but there will be enough low end to balance it out. An average of $75 to $100 already adds 60 cents to a dollar to the pack EV. More than that would be a strech.
I think we will see downward pressure on the khans foil fetches and the rtr shock foils. An even though I recently paid $40 for a Steam Vent, I'm not that worried.
The expeditions are just for extra bling. They are not reprints in the normal sense of the term. Many of us are heavily angry and disappointed over wizards continual refusal to reprint over priced cards in any significant way but we have very little power to influence their decision making process. Even if it would be in there best interest to sell products that contain high value reprints they do it in a very limited fashion to make it feel special to some people even if the bulk of us know it's just a long term marketing plan. Just imagine the hype behind modern masters 3.
There are at least 50 cards that need reprints in modern to lower their prices. Basically just modern masters done correctly, with a regular price point, sold everywhere to avoid re-selling of sealed products, hoarding, and price gouging. Enjoy whatever you can get. If there is a reprint in either of these sets you will get one per set unless the reprints are part of a cycle. That has been the limit of their reprint rate. Liliana of the Veil could be back to make you sacrifice an eldrazi.
You're assuming that WOTCs interests align with your interests of drastically lowering card prices. You are wrong. They do not want to drastically lower card prices. They want to increase availability of cards while keeping demand for cards high. If demand is always high, people will keep buying packs and playing the game.
As for Liliana in BFZ, it doesn't fit the story at all. We are in a new world of Magic where story comes first and gameplay comes second. A Planeswalker will not show up unless it fits the story, and the card they print will fit that story. It is unlikely we will see LotV in a Standard set again because they will want to tailor her card to the story they are telling.
The expeditions are just for extra bling. They are not reprints in the normal sense of the term. Many of us are heavily angry and disappointed over wizards continual refusal to reprint over priced cards in any significant way but we have very little power to influence their decision making process. Even if it would be in there best interest to sell products that contain high value reprints they do it in a very limited fashion to make it feel special to some people even if the bulk of us know it's just a long term marketing plan. Just imagine the hype behind modern masters 3.
There are at least 50 cards that need reprints in modern to lower their prices. Basically just modern masters done correctly, with a regular price point, sold everywhere to avoid re-selling of sealed products, hoarding, and price gouging. Enjoy whatever you can get. If there is a reprint in either of these sets you will get one per set unless the reprints are part of a cycle. That has been the limit of their reprint rate. Liliana of the Veil could be back to make you sacrifice an eldrazi.
You're assuming that WOTCs interests align with your interests of drastically lowering card prices. You are wrong. They do not want to drastically lower card prices. They want to increase availability of cards while keeping demand for cards high. If demand is always high, people will keep buying packs and playing the game.
As for Liliana in BFZ, it doesn't fit the story at all. We are in a new world of Magic where story comes first and gameplay comes second. A Planeswalker will not show up unless it fits the story, and the card they print will fit that story. It is unlikely we will see LotV in a Standard set again because they will want to tailor her card to the story they are telling.
At the end of the day, Modern is a format they conciously want to support, however at it's rate of growth, they seriously need to lower card prices of staples soon. Or bypass it like they did with goyf, keeping it a $100 card, but no longer part of the best deck in modern.
The expeditions are just for extra bling. They are not reprints in the normal sense of the term. Many of us are heavily angry and disappointed over wizards continual refusal to reprint over priced cards in any significant way but we have very little power to influence their decision making process. Even if it would be in there best interest to sell products that contain high value reprints they do it in a very limited fashion to make it feel special to some people even if the bulk of us know it's just a long term marketing plan. Just imagine the hype behind modern masters 3.
There are at least 50 cards that need reprints in modern to lower their prices. Basically just modern masters done correctly, with a regular price point, sold everywhere to avoid re-selling of sealed products, hoarding, and price gouging. Enjoy whatever you can get. If there is a reprint in either of these sets you will get one per set unless the reprints are part of a cycle. That has been the limit of their reprint rate. Liliana of the Veil could be back to make you sacrifice an eldrazi.
You're assuming that WOTCs interests align with your interests of drastically lowering card prices. You are wrong. They do not want to drastically lower card prices. They want to increase availability of cards while keeping demand for cards high. If demand is always high, people will keep buying packs and playing the game.
As for Liliana in BFZ, it doesn't fit the story at all. We are in a new world of Magic where story comes first and gameplay comes second. A Planeswalker will not show up unless it fits the story, and the card they print will fit that story. It is unlikely we will see LotV in a Standard set again because they will want to tailor her card to the story they are telling.
At the end of the day, Modern is a format they conciously want to support, however at it's rate of growth, they seriously need to lower card prices of staples soon. Or bypass it like they did with goyf, keeping it a $100 card, but no longer part of the best deck in modern.
Again, you're assuming that supporting the format means making it cheap. It does not. Supporting the format means making it popular. They are doing that extremely well.
The expeditions are just for extra bling. They are not reprints in the normal sense of the term. Many of us are heavily angry and disappointed over wizards continual refusal to reprint over priced cards in any significant way but we have very little power to influence their decision making process. Even if it would be in there best interest to sell products that contain high value reprints they do it in a very limited fashion to make it feel special to some people even if the bulk of us know it's just a long term marketing plan. Just imagine the hype behind modern masters 3.
There are at least 50 cards that need reprints in modern to lower their prices. Basically just modern masters done correctly, with a regular price point, sold everywhere to avoid re-selling of sealed products, hoarding, and price gouging. Enjoy whatever you can get. If there is a reprint in either of these sets you will get one per set unless the reprints are part of a cycle. That has been the limit of their reprint rate. Liliana of the Veil could be back to make you sacrifice an eldrazi.
You're assuming that WOTCs interests align with your interests of drastically lowering card prices. You are wrong. They do not want to drastically lower card prices. They want to increase availability of cards while keeping demand for cards high. If demand is always high, people will keep buying packs and playing the game.
As for Liliana in BFZ, it doesn't fit the story at all. We are in a new world of Magic where story comes first and gameplay comes second. A Planeswalker will not show up unless it fits the story, and the card they print will fit that story. It is unlikely we will see LotV in a Standard set again because they will want to tailor her card to the story they are telling.
At the end of the day, Modern is a format they conciously want to support, however at it's rate of growth, they seriously need to lower card prices of staples soon. Or bypass it like they did with goyf, keeping it a $100 card, but no longer part of the best deck in modern.
Again, you're assuming that supporting the format means making it cheap. It does not. Supporting the format means making it popular. They are doing that extremely well.
And a format can only remain popular as long as people can afford to actually participate in said format. Look at vintage, I watched my first few matches this week, and fell in love with the format. Sadly, since I'll never play it, I see little reason paying attention to events.
But this is off topic to the main topic which is the Expeditions.
No, because Liliana has been established, lore-wise, as not caring enough about Zendikar to help, despite Gideon and Jace asking. She's busy with her demon deals. And even then, when we do see her, there's no particular guarantee (or necessity) for her to be the LotV incarnation. She could be something entirely new, even, especially if she's making progress against her demon foes.
The expeditions are just for extra bling. They are not reprints in the normal sense of the term. Many of us are heavily angry and disappointed over wizards continual refusal to reprint over priced cards in any significant way but we have very little power to influence their decision making process. Even if it would be in there best interest to sell products that contain high value reprints they do it in a very limited fashion to make it feel special to some people even if the bulk of us know it's just a long term marketing plan. Just imagine the hype behind modern masters 3.
There are at least 50 cards that need reprints in modern to lower their prices. Basically just modern masters done correctly, with a regular price point, sold everywhere to avoid re-selling of sealed products, hoarding, and price gouging. Enjoy whatever you can get. If there is a reprint in either of these sets you will get one per set unless the reprints are part of a cycle. That has been the limit of their reprint rate. Liliana of the Veil could be back to make you sacrifice an eldrazi.
You're assuming that WOTCs interests align with your interests of drastically lowering card prices. You are wrong. They do not want to drastically lower card prices. They want to increase availability of cards while keeping demand for cards high. If demand is always high, people will keep buying packs and playing the game.
As for Liliana in BFZ, it doesn't fit the story at all. We are in a new world of Magic where story comes first and gameplay comes second. A Planeswalker will not show up unless it fits the story, and the card they print will fit that story. It is unlikely we will see LotV in a Standard set again because they will want to tailor her card to the story they are telling.
We know a version of Lilianna is in the Zendikar story because at the Origins reveal it was stated these five walkers were included because they are the featured characters in the upcoming series.
Doesn't mean it will be LotV but we know that LotV was strongly considered for M15 and dropped not because she was too strong but because they didn't want to put counters in for her.
I agree totally about Wizards reprint policy. They want $100 rares and mythics so they can keep prices high on Modern Masters. Anyone who wants to stand against this refuse to buy any Modern Masters. I was looking forward to a new MM for ages, but I haven't spent a dime on it because we've got to a point where Wizards are taking the piss.
On Expeditions if we take what MaRo said at PAX at face value there will be around 2 per case. I suspect :
i) to someone like SCG who crack cases to sell as singles lands (Expeditions and full art basics and full art basic foils) will be worth comfortably over half the case cost (they pay around $430);
ii) prices out of the gate for Expeditions will be high but they will fall somewhat over time while boxes are available ( and significant amounts of product are available for up to years after a set rotates these days);
iii) the above plus the fact so much product will be opened chasing the above will cause a significant price drop in all other singles in the set some time not too long after release.
Wizards are sailing pretty close to jumping the shark and harming the hobby IMO.
The expeditions are just for extra bling. They are not reprints in the normal sense of the term. Many of us are heavily angry and disappointed over wizards continual refusal to reprint over priced cards in any significant way but we have very little power to influence their decision making process. Even if it would be in there best interest to sell products that contain high value reprints they do it in a very limited fashion to make it feel special to some people even if the bulk of us know it's just a long term marketing plan. Just imagine the hype behind modern masters 3.
There are at least 50 cards that need reprints in modern to lower their prices. Basically just modern masters done correctly, with a regular price point, sold everywhere to avoid re-selling of sealed products, hoarding, and price gouging. Enjoy whatever you can get. If there is a reprint in either of these sets you will get one per set unless the reprints are part of a cycle. That has been the limit of their reprint rate. Liliana of the Veil could be back to make you sacrifice an eldrazi.
You're assuming that WOTCs interests align with your interests of drastically lowering card prices. You are wrong. They do not want to drastically lower card prices. They want to increase availability of cards while keeping demand for cards high. If demand is always high, people will keep buying packs and playing the game.
As for Liliana in BFZ, it doesn't fit the story at all. We are in a new world of Magic where story comes first and gameplay comes second. A Planeswalker will not show up unless it fits the story, and the card they print will fit that story. It is unlikely we will see LotV in a Standard set again because they will want to tailor her card to the story they are telling.
We know a version of Lilianna is in the Zendikar story because at the Origins reveal it was stated these five walkers were included because they are the featured characters in the upcoming series.
Doesn't mean it will be LotV but we know that LotV was strongly considered for M15 and dropped not because she was too strong but because they didn't want to put counters in for her.
I agree totally about Wizards reprint policy. They want $100 rares and mythics so they can keep prices high on Modern Masters. Anyone who wants to stand against this refuse to buy any Modern Masters. I was looking forward to a new MM for ages, but I haven't spent a dime on it because we've got to a point where Wizards are taking the piss.
On Expeditions if we take what MaRo said at PAX at face value there will be around 2 per case. I suspect :
i) to someone like SCG who crack cases to sell as singles lands (Expeditions and full art basics and full art basic foils) will be worth comfortably over half the case cost (they pay around $430);
ii) prices out of the gate for Expeditions will be high but they will fall somewhat over time while boxes are available ( and significant amounts of product are available for up to years after a set rotates these days);
iii) the above plus the fact so much product will be opened chasing the above will cause a significant price drop in all other singles in the set some time not too long after release.
Wizards are sailing pretty close to jumping the shark and harming the hobby IMO.
Actually, we know Liliana is not in the Zendikar story since Mark Rosewater specifically said so.
Modern was made because of the Legacy reserved list. Availability and price are directly related. Wizards promised to make cards readily available so that modern would not run into the same problem as legacy. Modern is running into that problem right now. Every few weeks another card has a huge price spike. Supporting the format means having tournaments for it and printing cards in the format so that people are able to buy them at a reasonable price. The flavor you are talking about has always been around. There were magic novels. There is no new flavor focus. It's just a talking point to write articles about for daily online postings. Wizards prints whatever they want in sets.
Wizards did not make modern popular. "I don't have to buy new cards! Great!" That is the entire format explained. "Promised reprinting of cards. Great!"
Yes, availability and price are directly related, but price is not the direct relative responsible to determine availability. That depends on movement, which is directly related to both price and availability. A card can have high price, but if its movement value is high (plenty of copies moving from buyers/sellers/players), the card is effectively available - there are sufficient people out there with the card and willing to sell it and a matching number of people willing to buy it at it's current price.
High prices usually slow down movement, but the slowing process itself will be slow if the entire market turns out to contain a lot of active people with generous pockets. Everyone has a different idea of "reasonable price", the higher the price goes, the less people will be in the market because of said process. But if a jump in prices (let's say something from 50 to 100), only reduced the market by a mere 10%, it means majority of the market still deems the prices as reasonable.
It doesn't doom the particular card to no-reprints, because our market works in the way that eventually those with generous pockets will obtain what they want, and movement will naturally slow down over time. So give it another year, the market size would have go down by 50% by itself, assuming it has been retaining the value of 100. Normally, in other markets, this would cause the price to drop by itself, but as all MTG players know, we are a bunch who'd rather hoard than sell at a lower price. That's when reprints come in, the increase the market, lowering the price and "restoring" the movement of the cards. I say "restoring", but in reality it'd be repeating the process. The old hoarders will just keep their cards for eternity/a very time, so effectively the supply then doesn't exist any more, so the same cycle will happen with the new batch of reprints.
You certainly know that the Expedition Lands are just bling and don't actually have any significant part with this cycle of pricing, but I still felt the need to point out that "reasonable price" is a variable factor depending on the person, so the major factor for reprints is "movement of the cards in the market". When Wizards said they would make cards readily available, they meant "keep the market readily flowing" - if it's readily flowing at high prices, then it's still available.
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I am going to apply for a credit card with a 3,000 dollar spending limit so I can buy 5 or 6 cases of BFZ in order to get at least 5 zendikar expeditions.......
I noticed that the collector number on my scalding tarn is 22/45. There are however only 25 expeditions in print now.
This could mean:
- more will be printed (and the current ones probably reprinted)
- except for the enemy tangolands which I think we can safely assume are in the next batch we still have 15 slots open for speculation.
I do think that to 20 for the next set does mean that wizards is exploring a new rarity level. If this is a "Zendikar only" thing and it is likely that Oath won't contain the enemy duals, then we will be left with a set of 5 new duals as expeditions. If the enemy duals come out in a different block (ala fetches) then we won't have a set of enemy dual expeditions.
They'll have to reprint the expeditions to get the last 5 as a matching set. Heck it would be great to see the fastlands, checklands, and painlands as full art too, but fastlands are also only half filled.
I noticed that the collector number on my scalding tarn is 22/45. There are however only 25 expeditions in print now.
This could mean:
- more will be printed (and the current ones probably reprinted)
- except for the enemy tangolands which I think we can safely assume are in the next batch we still have 15 slots open for speculation.
There are 20 other expeditions in the next set
I seriously doubt there will be enemy BattleLands in OGW: eight rare lands are far too much for a small set even in a land block. The other three enemy manlands though are already confirmed, so we could get the ten manlands as Expeditions, covering half of the group. The other ten could be the Filterlands: I can't see another ten lands group not specifically connected to a world (like some of the Painlands to Dominaria or the Scarslands to Mirrodin), and it's difficult to choose ten disconnected lands to fill the gap.
Yeah, I'd say it's extremely unlikely we'll see enemy battle lands in OGW.
I'm hoping for the manlands and ten utility lands (Wasteland, please).
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Not necessarily. I once opened 2 copies of Purphoros in Theros draft from packs that were together in their box. I also bought two consecutive boxes of Dark Ascension and pulled 9 mythics from one and 8 from the other, a total of 3 of which were foil.
Obviously the chances of that kind of thing happening are pretty slim, but still, it does happen.
GGG [Primer] Omnath, Big Green Beatstick Machine GGG
I admit I don't know the step-by-step process from sheet to box, but boxes couldn't be stocked without a randomization effect somewhere along the line or drafts would be considerably more predictable than they are. And once any sort of randomization is tossed into the mix, with a population as large as the MtG print run, the procedure Keats describes makes 0 sense.
Implying what exactly?
If one of the individuals sitting next to me open an expidition I ought to rage quit because I'm even less likely to get one?
If people are buying packs in hopes of getting a type of card that shows up once every 400+ packs then they are idiots
Packs are for drafting, children and the occasional "let's try my luck, I have five bucks go spare"
http://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post/128232841423/zendikar-expeditions-are-more-rare-than-mythic#notes
I think we will see downward pressure on the khans foil fetches and the rtr shock foils. An even though I recently paid $40 for a Steam Vent, I'm not that worried.
You're assuming that WOTCs interests align with your interests of drastically lowering card prices. You are wrong. They do not want to drastically lower card prices. They want to increase availability of cards while keeping demand for cards high. If demand is always high, people will keep buying packs and playing the game.
As for Liliana in BFZ, it doesn't fit the story at all. We are in a new world of Magic where story comes first and gameplay comes second. A Planeswalker will not show up unless it fits the story, and the card they print will fit that story. It is unlikely we will see LotV in a Standard set again because they will want to tailor her card to the story they are telling.
Check out http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/author/john-murphy/ for my EDH articles!
At the end of the day, Modern is a format they conciously want to support, however at it's rate of growth, they seriously need to lower card prices of staples soon. Or bypass it like they did with goyf, keeping it a $100 card, but no longer part of the best deck in modern.
Again, you're assuming that supporting the format means making it cheap. It does not. Supporting the format means making it popular. They are doing that extremely well.
Check out http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/author/john-murphy/ for my EDH articles!
And a format can only remain popular as long as people can afford to actually participate in said format. Look at vintage, I watched my first few matches this week, and fell in love with the format. Sadly, since I'll never play it, I see little reason paying attention to events.
But this is off topic to the main topic which is the Expeditions.
We know a version of Lilianna is in the Zendikar story because at the Origins reveal it was stated these five walkers were included because they are the featured characters in the upcoming series.
Doesn't mean it will be LotV but we know that LotV was strongly considered for M15 and dropped not because she was too strong but because they didn't want to put counters in for her.
I agree totally about Wizards reprint policy. They want $100 rares and mythics so they can keep prices high on Modern Masters. Anyone who wants to stand against this refuse to buy any Modern Masters. I was looking forward to a new MM for ages, but I haven't spent a dime on it because we've got to a point where Wizards are taking the piss.
On Expeditions if we take what MaRo said at PAX at face value there will be around 2 per case. I suspect :
i) to someone like SCG who crack cases to sell as singles lands (Expeditions and full art basics and full art basic foils) will be worth comfortably over half the case cost (they pay around $430);
ii) prices out of the gate for Expeditions will be high but they will fall somewhat over time while boxes are available ( and significant amounts of product are available for up to years after a set rotates these days);
iii) the above plus the fact so much product will be opened chasing the above will cause a significant price drop in all other singles in the set some time not too long after release.
Wizards are sailing pretty close to jumping the shark and harming the hobby IMO.
Actually, we know Liliana is not in the Zendikar story since Mark Rosewater specifically said so.
Yes, availability and price are directly related, but price is not the direct relative responsible to determine availability. That depends on movement, which is directly related to both price and availability. A card can have high price, but if its movement value is high (plenty of copies moving from buyers/sellers/players), the card is effectively available - there are sufficient people out there with the card and willing to sell it and a matching number of people willing to buy it at it's current price.
High prices usually slow down movement, but the slowing process itself will be slow if the entire market turns out to contain a lot of active people with generous pockets. Everyone has a different idea of "reasonable price", the higher the price goes, the less people will be in the market because of said process. But if a jump in prices (let's say something from 50 to 100), only reduced the market by a mere 10%, it means majority of the market still deems the prices as reasonable.
It doesn't doom the particular card to no-reprints, because our market works in the way that eventually those with generous pockets will obtain what they want, and movement will naturally slow down over time. So give it another year, the market size would have go down by 50% by itself, assuming it has been retaining the value of 100. Normally, in other markets, this would cause the price to drop by itself, but as all MTG players know, we are a bunch who'd rather hoard than sell at a lower price. That's when reprints come in, the increase the market, lowering the price and "restoring" the movement of the cards. I say "restoring", but in reality it'd be repeating the process. The old hoarders will just keep their cards for eternity/a very time, so effectively the supply then doesn't exist any more, so the same cycle will happen with the new batch of reprints.
You certainly know that the Expedition Lands are just bling and don't actually have any significant part with this cycle of pricing, but I still felt the need to point out that "reasonable price" is a variable factor depending on the person, so the major factor for reprints is "movement of the cards in the market". When Wizards said they would make cards readily available, they meant "keep the market readily flowing" - if it's readily flowing at high prices, then it's still available.
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There are 20 other expeditions in the next set
They'll have to reprint the expeditions to get the last 5 as a matching set. Heck it would be great to see the fastlands, checklands, and painlands as full art too, but fastlands are also only half filled.
I expect manlands and filterlands in Oath.
Yeah, I'd say it's extremely unlikely we'll see enemy battle lands in OGW.
I'm hoping for the manlands and ten utility lands (Wasteland, please).
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