I don't think the standard rules for mythics really apply to this set. Personally, I believe that Dark Confidant and Thoughtseize will be mythics in this set. I believe that Tombstalker will be in this set, and that Aether Vial will be a rare.
That's what I believe, I could be wrong, but all things considered, I'm probably not.
I'm going to Vegas for this set, that's all I know.
I could see Dark Confidant and Vendilion Clique being moved to mythic (both have unique enough effects, and bob is an invitational card/clique is a legendary creature which could all be used to justify the shift in rarity), but if they put Thoughtseize at mythic, I'll be a bit disappointed. There's no reason for that card to be moved up in rarity other than trying to preserve its price on the secondary market, which is understandable, but I'd hope they wouldn't just stick every value card at mythic. I'd hope they'd throw us a bone or two and leave a couple of them at rare.
It is super tough to reprint a 30 dollar card in a prepackaged product though. That is why Doubling Season hasn't been reprinted anywhere yet.
It is one mythic slot (in a color with not many good choices for mythics), and it makes more sense to use a mythic on a commander card than a 'format staple' which would be at rare instead.
If Doubling Season were the only case of it, I'd agree with you.
But there are so many of those cards on that list that have the lion's share of their value from EDH demand, and with the seemingly focused drive of "make Modern more accessible" and not "Make Modern-era cards more accessible", there's a WHOLE lot of cards that people are panting over that really shouldn't find their way into the product.
Doubling Season just happens to be a good poster child for it given it's high dollar value, constant popularity and lack of relevance to most tournament formats ever.
Also- and I may be wrong on this and would like some opinions- I've a feeling that printing the rares that are of this variety- the extremely popular/valuable kitchen table rares that see little play other than casual formats, you'd be much more likely to piss off a bunch of collectors than if you were to print off a number of heavily played tournament rares of the same value.
Heck, I'd almost think that a print of equal numbers of Thoughtseize and Doubling Season would lead to more complaints about degrading of the value of Doubling Season than that of Thoughtseize.
I don't think the standard rules for mythics really apply to this set. Personally, I believe that Dark Confidant and Thoughtseize will be mythics in this set. I believe that Tombstalker will be in this set, and that Aether Vial will be a rare.
That's what I believe, I could be wrong, but all things considered, I'm probably not.
They better not reprint kitchen finks, and remand as a rare, that's all I care about.
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Decks i'm currently playing:
Standard decks:
Competitive Boros aggro RW
Valroz Jund GRB
Modern decks:
Budget jund control RGB
GR tron ( not yet finished) GR
I hope modern master boxes don't cost 200+ after the set is spoiled.
They better not reprint kitchen finks, and remand as a rare, that's all I care about.
It all depends on average pack value. A box usually runs 75% over the value of the cards inside it, so if there's $100 of value on average the box will run $175. I can easily see it selling well over MSRP.
Yup, all we need is 4-5 decently valued RARES to make this box value jump. Mythics are just icing on the cake, esp since the number of boosters in a box is lower.
Since this set is also released on MTGO, do you expect Goyf prices to crash there? I mean there should be infinite supply to meet the demand, which should stabilize the prices I would think.
They also have not said how this will be released on MTGO. We do not know yet whether you can just buy endless packs or do endless drafts. There is precedent for limits as the masters editions were limited in the amount they'd put on the system iirc.
Goyf is at mythic because they decided to use the normal set rarity distribution and needed mythics. There isn't a better modern legal card to highlight and generate excitement about the set than goyf, so it was a shoe in as a chase mythic. Boosters are $7 because they can; and of course, for the reasons they stated in Aaron Forsythe's article about it. MSRP is kinda irrelevant however because of the limited print run. Many stores are going to be selling this product for more than MSRP. Now they ARE trying not to totally decimate the secondary market ala chronicles, and are using the limited print run as their vehicle for that.
If you are trying to expand modern, they should be more focused on increasing supply than retaining prices.
Also the $7 does matter because that's what people use as a starting price, I'm sure people would have totally different expectations if the retail price was $4 or $15.
Not oversaturating the market is not the same thing as setting the prices for it however, and I am certain that noone at a meeting said "You know what? we can't put Clique in guys, our overall set value is too high..."
No the probably said, well if we're putting goyf, bob clique ect... that will make the set vaule high. lets put the at mythic to bring down the EV, but the EV is still high, so we can charge $7 a pack.
A 40 dollar mythic rare would constitute a must have 4 of that goes in many decks.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled. I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
First, Wizards has nothing to do with setting prices in the secondary market. Wizards isn't using the current price of the cards in the set to set the MSRP of the packs or limit the value of the cards in the set. It would in fact be foolish of them to do so since they cannot accurately predict how much the values of those cards will change with the increased number of cards in circulation (or the perception thereof).
"You know what? we can't put Clique in guys, our overall set value is too high..."
Too adorable for words. :3
They do nothing but assess value.
Why was Emmara so bad? Because they wanted a low $ rare in that white/green slot. They figured instead of making it bland and unmemorable, if they were going to make it suck, they were going to make it bomb spectacularly. To believe anything else is to believe them collectively stupid/incompetent.
Why was AVC above average in value? Because it was a standalone that was a massive shift from the block that came before it. The last thing they want is a tepid Ice Age.
Why did they create the Mythic rarity? So they could shuffle most of the few Good Rares in a set up into that slot, then make 15 fewer total rares on top of that. A big neon sign saying "these are the good rares" for new players, and 15 fewer pieces of cards to design and art to commission ups those profit margins; a big business win.
Why does it cost $850 for a Tarmogoyf in Modern Masters? Because they don't want to diminish its value on the secondary market. The last thing they want is some enraged sperglord who paid 3 million dollars for them to get upset; that guy's a big chunk of their business. Stability is everything for their ecosystem. (And once again, that's why 90+% of every set is filler wasting space.)
To believe they're not keenly aware of how much the slot machine gives back to the customers; wow.
Public service announcement once again: You can expect these things to be just a little less than twice as good as the average set's booster. The average set booster's value is pretty low. If you expect christmas (such as $40+ cards suddenly coming into the realm of sensibility), you should be disappointed already. If you want a fun little cube-like set with an above-average power level or expect two or three cards to become 5% cheaper, this is the product for you.
Also the $7 does matter because that's what people use as a starting price, I'm sure people would have totally different expectations if the retail price was $4 or $15.
Of course they would, and if this was a normal set, 7 dollar boosters would be a starting point for the prices of the cards in the set. This set is all reprints however, all the cards already have established values. Those values are all going to change of course, based on a variety of factors including rarity shifts, and size of the print run compared to how many copies already exist; however, the 7 dollar initial booster price likely won't matter as much as you think. This set is selling above MSRP (about $9.38/pack or ~134% of MSRP when you buy a box of MM on ebay) while normal sets sell below MSRP (about $2.78/pack or ~70% of MSRP when you buy a box of DGM on ebay). People's expectations of the value within are setting the price of the packs. Whatever Wizards says the packs are worth is irrelevant. Same thing happens every time a FTV comes out. Those things are packed with value, and as a result, are sold for far more than the MSRP.
Why was Emmara so bad? Because they wanted a low $ rare in that white/green slot. They figured instead of making it bland and unmemorable, if they were going to make it suck, they were going to make it bomb spectacularly. To believe anything else is to believe them collectively stupid/incompetent.
Or, they could have wanted a low power rare for that slot. It ends up that they get a low value rare because Emmara is neither powerful (tournament playable) nor splashy, but the motivations are completely different. If you really think that Wizards designs/develops their cards with their eventual prices in mind you are deluded. The most certainly DO keep power creep in mind and have a cap on how many cards are developed with standard/modern/legacy in mind per set.
The story of Emmara/ Vice of resurgence for those that haven't read it: http://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post/48288088338/i-would-just-like-to-say-that-im-very-happy-that-you
Why was AVC above average in value? Because it was a standalone that was a massive shift from the block that came before it. The last thing they want is a tepid Ice Age.
I assume you mean AVR (Avacyn Restored)? If you do, AVR as a set is worth the same $170 for a complete set that every other standard legal large set is worth. Now, the value in that set is very top heavy and concentrated in a few cards, but the overall set value is the same as Innistrad, Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash. All standard legal complete sets compress to a like value, due in no small part to set redemption from magic online which by the way is not an option for MM.
Why does it cost $850 for a Tarmogoyf in Modern Masters? Because they don't want to diminish its value on the secondary market. The last thing they want is some enraged sperglord who paid 3 million dollars for them to get upset; that guy's a big chunk of their business. Stability is everything for their ecosystem. (And once again, that's why 90+% of every set is filler wasting space.)
To believe they're not keenly aware of how much the slot machine gives back to the customers; wow.
Once again, being aware of secondary market values and attempting not to crash them by over printing =|= setting prices. Prices are not going to be set by the MSRP of the packs. Also, you actually gave one of the reasons there is filler in every set in the next sentence you wrote. Opening packs is a gamble. Also acceptable answers are bad cards make good cards better, different demographics want different things, not every card can be good, limited is a low power format, etc.
Public service announcement once again: You can expect these things to be just a little less than twice as good as the average set's booster. The average set booster's value is pretty low. If you expect christmas (such as $40+ cards suddenly coming into the realm of sensibility), you should be disappointed already. If you want a fun little cube-like set with an above-average power level or expect two or three cards to become 5% cheaper, this is the product for you.
Seems to me that people are expecting ~3x the value of the average set's booster which isn't unreasonable considering all the potential $ uncommons and staple rares in the set, and the fact that every booster gets a foil. I'll wait for spoilers to make that assessment for myself however
If you expect Christmas (such as $40+ cards suddenly coming into the realm of sensibility), you should be disappointed already.
At $7 these are more than TWICE as much as Standard sets which often have $40 cards... Modern Masters better be chalked full of them especially if people believe this set is going above MSRP.
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
Of course they would, and if this was a normal set, 7 dollar boosters would be a starting point for the prices of the cards in the set. This set is all reprints however, all the cards already have established values. Those values are all going to change of course, based on a variety of factors including rarity shifts, and size of the print run compared to how many copies already exist; however, the 7 dollar initial booster price likely won't matter as much as you think. This set is selling above MSRP (about $9.38/pack or ~134% of MSRP when you buy a box of MM on ebay) while normal sets sell below MSRP (about $2.78/pack or ~70% of MSRP when you buy a box of DGM on ebay). People's expectations of the value within are setting the price of the packs. Whatever Wizards says the packs are worth is irrelevant. Same thing happens every time a FTV comes out. Those things are packed with value, and as a result, are sold for far more than the MSRP.
FTV's are known quantities. If modern masters packs retailed for $4 they would be getting resold for $6-8 right now, and if they retailed for $15 they'd probably be going for around $30.
Or, they could have wanted a low power rare for that slot. It ends up that they get a low value rare because Emmara is neither powerful (tournament playable) nor splashy, but the motivations are completely different. If you really think that Wizards designs/develops their cards with their eventual prices in mind you are deluded.
They design cards that will cause alot of packs to be opened over the course of the set, which is actually the same thing.
I assume you mean AVR (Avacyn Restored)? If you do, AVR as a set is worth the same $170 for a complete set that every other standard legal large set is worth. Now, the value in that set is very top heavy and concentrated in a few cards, but the overall set value is the same as Innistrad, Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash. All standard legal complete sets compress to a like value, due in no small part to set redemption from magic online which by the way is not an option for MM.
A set's vaule doesn't matter as much as where the value is. A set with just $100 rare value is going to have more value per box than a set with just $190 mythic value. Conflux is a perfect example of this
Once again, being aware of secondary market values and attempting not to crash them by over printing =|= setting prices.
First this contradicts your ealry stament of "Wizards has nothing to do with setting prices in the secondary market" As by your own admission wizards can crash the secondary market.
Second there are other ways to stop a card price from crashing besides limited print runs.
Prices are not going to be set by the MSRP of the packs. Also, you actually gave one of the reasons there is filler in every set in the next sentence you wrote. Opening packs is a gamble. Also acceptable answers are bad cards make good cards better, different demographics want different things, not every card can be good, limited is a low power format, etc.
1. The mythics and rares may not be affected due to the limited print run but the commons and uncommons will probably be.
2. More bad cards don't make good cards better, they just make them cost more.
A 40 dollar mythic rare would constitute a must have 4 of that goes in many decks.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled. I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
Why was Emmara so bad? Because they wanted a low $ rare in that white/green slot. They figured instead of making it bland and unmemorable, if they were going to make it suck, they were going to make it bomb spectacularly. To believe anything else is to believe them collectively stupid/incompetent.
Why was AVC above average in value? Because it was a standalone that was a massive shift from the block that came before it. The last thing they want is a tepid Ice Age.
Why did they create the Mythic rarity? So they could shuffle most of the few Good Rares in a set up into that slot, then make 15 fewer total rares on top of that. A big neon sign saying "these are the good rares" for new players, and 15 fewer pieces of cards to design and art to commission ups those profit margins; a big business win.
Why does it cost $850 for a Tarmogoyf in Modern Masters? Because they don't want to diminish its value on the secondary market. The last thing they want is some enraged sperglord who paid 3 million dollars for them to get upset; that guy's a big chunk of their business. Stability is everything for their ecosystem. (And once again, that's why 90+% of every set is filler wasting space.)
To believe they're not keenly aware of how much the slot machine gives back to the customers; wow.
Public service announcement once again: You can expect these things to be just a little less than twice as good as the average set's booster. The average set booster's value is pretty low. If you expect christmas (such as $40+ cards suddenly coming into the realm of sensibility), you should be disappointed already. If you want a fun little cube-like set with an above-average power level or expect two or three cards to become 5% cheaper, this is the product for you.
And it goes without saying, but shop prices aren't the real value of the cards, especially when it comes to the lower end.
Taste of Blood is not worth $0.15-$0.25. It's not worth even $0.01, though some stores might foolishly buy it for 1/2 a cent in a bulk lot. (I guess if you could scam them by amassing 1000 of the things, they'll just pass the screwage on to someone else by pumping them into a "Mystery Lot" kind of product. What's in the box? It's -1, +1 life for B Alex.)
The three potential bat token generators aren't crazy valuable, and they're what I expect ~70% of the set to be.
Yeah because all Mythics are so good right?!
No, obviously not. About 5/15ths of them tend to be significantly above the handling+comparative rarity fee - that's an absolutely tremendous ratio compared to the 10/60 for rares and lower for uncommons and commons..
(As a note, this is also an objective way to demonstrate how Tibalt was a failure. He doesn't even retail for the price of a booster. Not the kind of thing you want to happen to your marque cards.)
Thoughtseize at uncommon... lol, what are you guys on???
I'm sorry to burst your bubble guys, but it is SUPER unlikely that they will print a $60 card as an uncommon in a small set... You don't need 1cc discard for a limited environment. I would say that there is about a 10x greater chance they are going to make thoughtseize a mythic instead of an uncommon.
If you need ANY proof that Wizards is taking value of the cards into account when balancing their rarity, it's gofy. Gofy has a comparable complexity level with boneyard wurm or splinterfright. BUT because it's a $100 card, it got the bump to mythic. And if you needed ANY more proof, just remember WIZARDS IS A COMPANY TRYING TO MAKE MONEY. It is in their interest to have you cracking as many packs as possible trying to get your playset of thoughtseizes.
Some other notes:
Remand, if it's in, will be uncommon, it makes no sense at any other rarity.
Due to how similar geralf's messenger and kitchen finks are, it would not at all surprise me if the latter were upgraded to a rare
Wizards is going to want to be able to do this more than 1 year in a row, with different cards each time. Therefore, it's highly likely that a majority of the money cards are going to get left out of the set so they can use them for a future MM or judge / GP promo's.
Thoughtseize at uncommon... lol, what are you guys on???
I'm sorry to burst your bubble guys, but it is SUPER unlikely that they will print a $60 card as an uncommon in a small set... You don't need 1cc discard for a limited environment. I would say that there is about a 10x greater chance they are going to make thoughtseize a mythic instead of an uncommon.
If you need ANY proof that Wizards is taking value of the cards into account when balancing their rarity, it's gofy. Gofy has a comparable complexity level with boneyard wurm or splinterfright. BUT because it's a $100 card, it got the bump to mythic. And if you needed ANY more proof, just remember WIZARDS IS A COMPANY TRYING TO MAKE MONEY. It is in their interest to have you cracking as many packs as possible trying to get your playset of thoughtseizes.
Some other notes:
Remand, if it's in, will be uncommon, it makes no sense at any other rarity.
Due to how similar geralf's messenger and kitchen finks are, it would not at all surprise me if the latter were upgraded to a rare
Wizards is going to want to be able to do this more than 1 year in a row, with different cards each time. Therefore, it's highly likely that a majority of the money cards are going to get left out of the set so they can use them for a future MM or judge / GP promo's.
You mean a $30 or less card for the majority of the time MM was being developed?
I'm not expecting too much rarity creep, as the mythic slots are scarce and, with the exceptions of Bob and Goyf, will probably be used to showcase new arts for "mythic worthy" cards from older sets (i.e. symmetrizing the Swords cycle). I expect Kitchen Finks at uncommon, Thoughtseize at rare, nothing truly obnoxious. I'm willing to trust that Wizards put some serious thought into this.
Regardless of whether I'm right, I'm looking forward to it. Hasta la Vegas, Baby!
EDIT: overlooked Dread Return being an uncommon, it will probably stay there. ALSO, overlooked it being banned. Oh well.
That would be far too soon after the release of Dragon's Maze, so I would not expect any previews for this set to begin until at least a week after that.
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That would be far too soon after the release of Dragon's Maze, so I would not expect any previews for this set to begin until at least a week after that.
Though by Tuesday, it'll be a month before set release, usually when set spoilers start trickling out.
I wish my 4/4s with haste and first strike that acted as Goblin Warchiefs were better and didn't die to instants and overshadowed all other 4 drops in the format. And that they had evasion too, and some way to dodge wrath effects.
Talked to someone in the know at CardKingdom last night. As you know that have a large online store and a gaming space. He said they were going to receive approx. 1000 boxes of modern master and if you're lucky enough to live in Seattle, they will be hosting drafts of the set. Just thought I should leave that nugget here.
I could see Dark Confidant and Vendilion Clique being moved to mythic (both have unique enough effects, and bob is an invitational card/clique is a legendary creature which could all be used to justify the shift in rarity), but if they put Thoughtseize at mythic, I'll be a bit disappointed. There's no reason for that card to be moved up in rarity other than trying to preserve its price on the secondary market, which is understandable, but I'd hope they wouldn't just stick every value card at mythic. I'd hope they'd throw us a bone or two and leave a couple of them at rare.
If Doubling Season were the only case of it, I'd agree with you.
But there are so many of those cards on that list that have the lion's share of their value from EDH demand, and with the seemingly focused drive of "make Modern more accessible" and not "Make Modern-era cards more accessible", there's a WHOLE lot of cards that people are panting over that really shouldn't find their way into the product.
Doubling Season just happens to be a good poster child for it given it's high dollar value, constant popularity and lack of relevance to most tournament formats ever.
Also- and I may be wrong on this and would like some opinions- I've a feeling that printing the rares that are of this variety- the extremely popular/valuable kitchen table rares that see little play other than casual formats, you'd be much more likely to piss off a bunch of collectors than if you were to print off a number of heavily played tournament rares of the same value.
Heck, I'd almost think that a print of equal numbers of Thoughtseize and Doubling Season would lead to more complaints about degrading of the value of Doubling Season than that of Thoughtseize.
Good god, man. Do you really want them to force fast aggro and nothing else in the format?
The only thing that'd be happy with a format where decks running black have a reasonable chance of having a pair of thoughtseizes would be fast aggro.
They better not reprint kitchen finks, and remand as a rare, that's all I care about.
Decks i'm currently playing:
Competitive Boros aggro RW
Valroz Jund GRB
Modern decks:
Budget jund control RGB
GR tron ( not yet finished) GR
Commander:
Aurelia, the Warleader RW
It all depends on average pack value. A box usually runs 75% over the value of the cards inside it, so if there's $100 of value on average the box will run $175. I can easily see it selling well over MSRP.
They also have not said how this will be released on MTGO. We do not know yet whether you can just buy endless packs or do endless drafts. There is precedent for limits as the masters editions were limited in the amount they'd put on the system iirc.
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If you are trying to expand modern, they should be more focused on increasing supply than retaining prices.
Also the $7 does matter because that's what people use as a starting price, I'm sure people would have totally different expectations if the retail price was $4 or $15.
No the probably said, well if we're putting goyf, bob clique ect... that will make the set vaule high. lets put the at mythic to bring down the EV, but the EV is still high, so we can charge $7 a pack.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled.
I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
Too adorable for words. :3
They do nothing but assess value.
Why was Emmara so bad? Because they wanted a low $ rare in that white/green slot. They figured instead of making it bland and unmemorable, if they were going to make it suck, they were going to make it bomb spectacularly. To believe anything else is to believe them collectively stupid/incompetent.
Why was AVC above average in value? Because it was a standalone that was a massive shift from the block that came before it. The last thing they want is a tepid Ice Age.
Why did they create the Mythic rarity? So they could shuffle most of the few Good Rares in a set up into that slot, then make 15 fewer total rares on top of that. A big neon sign saying "these are the good rares" for new players, and 15 fewer pieces of cards to design and art to commission ups those profit margins; a big business win.
Why does it cost $850 for a Tarmogoyf in Modern Masters? Because they don't want to diminish its value on the secondary market. The last thing they want is some enraged sperglord who paid 3 million dollars for them to get upset; that guy's a big chunk of their business. Stability is everything for their ecosystem. (And once again, that's why 90+% of every set is filler wasting space.)
To believe they're not keenly aware of how much the slot machine gives back to the customers; wow.
Public service announcement once again: You can expect these things to be just a little less than twice as good as the average set's booster. The average set booster's value is pretty low. If you expect christmas (such as $40+ cards suddenly coming into the realm of sensibility), you should be disappointed already. If you want a fun little cube-like set with an above-average power level or expect two or three cards to become 5% cheaper, this is the product for you.
Of course they would, and if this was a normal set, 7 dollar boosters would be a starting point for the prices of the cards in the set. This set is all reprints however, all the cards already have established values. Those values are all going to change of course, based on a variety of factors including rarity shifts, and size of the print run compared to how many copies already exist; however, the 7 dollar initial booster price likely won't matter as much as you think. This set is selling above MSRP (about $9.38/pack or ~134% of MSRP when you buy a box of MM on ebay) while normal sets sell below MSRP (about $2.78/pack or ~70% of MSRP when you buy a box of DGM on ebay). People's expectations of the value within are setting the price of the packs. Whatever Wizards says the packs are worth is irrelevant. Same thing happens every time a FTV comes out. Those things are packed with value, and as a result, are sold for far more than the MSRP.
Or, they could have wanted a low power rare for that slot. It ends up that they get a low value rare because Emmara is neither powerful (tournament playable) nor splashy, but the motivations are completely different. If you really think that Wizards designs/develops their cards with their eventual prices in mind you are deluded. The most certainly DO keep power creep in mind and have a cap on how many cards are developed with standard/modern/legacy in mind per set.
The story of Emmara/ Vice of resurgence for those that haven't read it: http://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post/48288088338/i-would-just-like-to-say-that-im-very-happy-that-you
I assume you mean AVR (Avacyn Restored)? If you do, AVR as a set is worth the same $170 for a complete set that every other standard legal large set is worth. Now, the value in that set is very top heavy and concentrated in a few cards, but the overall set value is the same as Innistrad, Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash. All standard legal complete sets compress to a like value, due in no small part to set redemption from magic online which by the way is not an option for MM.
Once again, being aware of secondary market values and attempting not to crash them by over printing =|= setting prices. Prices are not going to be set by the MSRP of the packs. Also, you actually gave one of the reasons there is filler in every set in the next sentence you wrote. Opening packs is a gamble. Also acceptable answers are bad cards make good cards better, different demographics want different things, not every card can be good, limited is a low power format, etc.
Seems to me that people are expecting ~3x the value of the average set's booster which isn't unreasonable considering all the potential $ uncommons and staple rares in the set, and the fact that every booster gets a foil. I'll wait for spoilers to make that assessment for myself however
At $7 these are more than TWICE as much as Standard sets which often have $40 cards... Modern Masters better be chalked full of them especially if people believe this set is going above MSRP.
FTV's are known quantities. If modern masters packs retailed for $4 they would be getting resold for $6-8 right now, and if they retailed for $15 they'd probably be going for around $30.
They design cards that will cause alot of packs to be opened over the course of the set, which is actually the same thing.
A set's vaule doesn't matter as much as where the value is. A set with just $100 rare value is going to have more value per box than a set with just $190 mythic value. Conflux is a perfect example of this
First this contradicts your ealry stament of "Wizards has nothing to do with setting prices in the secondary market" As by your own admission wizards can crash the secondary market.
Second there are other ways to stop a card price from crashing besides limited print runs.
1. The mythics and rares may not be affected due to the limited print run but the commons and uncommons will probably be.
2. More bad cards don't make good cards better, they just make them cost more.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled.
I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
Yeah because all Mythics are so good right?!
Taste of Blood is not worth $0.15-$0.25. It's not worth even $0.01, though some stores might foolishly buy it for 1/2 a cent in a bulk lot. (I guess if you could scam them by amassing 1000 of the things, they'll just pass the screwage on to someone else by pumping them into a "Mystery Lot" kind of product. What's in the box? It's -1, +1 life for B Alex.)
The three potential bat token generators aren't crazy valuable, and they're what I expect ~70% of the set to be.
No, obviously not. About 5/15ths of them tend to be significantly above the handling+comparative rarity fee - that's an absolutely tremendous ratio compared to the 10/60 for rares and lower for uncommons and commons..
(As a note, this is also an objective way to demonstrate how Tibalt was a failure. He doesn't even retail for the price of a booster. Not the kind of thing you want to happen to your marque cards.)
I'm sorry to burst your bubble guys, but it is SUPER unlikely that they will print a $60 card as an uncommon in a small set... You don't need 1cc discard for a limited environment. I would say that there is about a 10x greater chance they are going to make thoughtseize a mythic instead of an uncommon.
If you need ANY proof that Wizards is taking value of the cards into account when balancing their rarity, it's gofy. Gofy has a comparable complexity level with boneyard wurm or splinterfright. BUT because it's a $100 card, it got the bump to mythic. And if you needed ANY more proof, just remember WIZARDS IS A COMPANY TRYING TO MAKE MONEY. It is in their interest to have you cracking as many packs as possible trying to get your playset of thoughtseizes.
Some other notes:
Edric | Skithiryx | Merieke | Talrand
--------------------------
Well except for pauper EDH
Garruk's Packleader | Inkfathom Witch | Gelectrode | Sigil Captain | Glider Barin | Sludge Strider | Paragon of the Ameshsa
You mean a $30 or less card for the majority of the time MM was being developed?
Standard
W.I.P.
EDH
WNorn Tokens
Tarmogoyf
Dark Confidant
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
Elspeth, Knight-Errant
Sword of Light and Shadow
Sword of Fire and Ice
Progenitus
Beyond that, it becomes a matter of plugging holes. These cards look like the best fits for the remaining slots:
Kokusho, the Evening Star (black #2, could also be Damnation)
Dragonstorm (red #2, potentially Akroma, Angel of Fury)
AEther Vial and Knight of the Reliquary (remaining two "other" slots, although I could see Arcbound Ravager or maybe Zur the Enchanter or Rafiq of the Many for another gold legend, or Ajani Vengeant or Sarkhan Vol for more Planeswalkers)
Akroma, Angel of Wrath (white #2, few other options are obvious as I'm not honestly expecting two white 'walkers)
Tezzeret the Seeker and Vendilion Clique (blue slots; other potentials are Meloku the Clouded Mirror, Cryptic Command, or Master Transmuter although Tezzy and Vendi seem most likely)
Garruk Wildspeaker (green #2--there aren't too many great options, but I'm still not expecting to see Doubling Season at more than rare)
I'm expecting Shadowmoor/Eventide duals at rare (Graven Cairns etc.) as well as Mutavault, Reflecting Pool, Grove of the Burnwillows, Horizon Canopy, and Dark Depths; perhaps not all of these, but a good number.
Legacy-playable cards that don't see Modern, as well as casual and EDH all-stars, are likely in, i.e. Dread Return, Goblin Charbelcher, Bridge from Below, Mangara of Corondor, Gaddock Teeg, Doran, the Siege Tower, Rhys the Redeemed, Sliver Legion, and Memnarch.
I'm not expecting too much rarity creep, as the mythic slots are scarce and, with the exceptions of Bob and Goyf, will probably be used to showcase new arts for "mythic worthy" cards from older sets (i.e. symmetrizing the Swords cycle). I expect Kitchen Finks at uncommon, Thoughtseize at rare, nothing truly obnoxious. I'm willing to trust that Wizards put some serious thought into this.
Regardless of whether I'm right, I'm looking forward to it. Hasta la Vegas, Baby!
EDIT: overlooked Dread Return being an uncommon, it will probably stay there. ALSO, overlooked it being banned. Oh well.
Meanwhile, in the Modern Masters thread:
RRLONG AGO, THE FOUR COLORS LIVED IN HARMONYRR
RRBUT EVERYTHING CHANGED WHEN THE FIRE NATION ATTACKED RR
That would be far too soon after the release of Dragon's Maze, so I would not expect any previews for this set to begin until at least a week after that.
“When the people fear the government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.”-Thomas Jefferson
“A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends upon the character of its user.”-Theodore Roosevelt
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I can't imagine this getting pushed to Mythic.
-Yavimaya Ranger
Though by Tuesday, it'll be a month before set release, usually when set spoilers start trickling out.
My current decks!
http://tappedout.net/users/ThePhasewalker/
R Norin the Wary: I've Got a Bad Feeling About This
UG Thrasios & Kydele: Knowledge is Power
RG Borborygmos Enraged: The Breaking of the World
BG The Gitrog Monster: All Glory to the Hypnotoad
WUR Zedruu the Greathearted: Endless Possibilities, One Outcome
WBG Karador, Ghost Chieftain: What's Dead May Never Die
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