I was playing around with trying to come up with a way to compare card expected values between different decks. What I came up with was using the number of times that a card appears in the deck divided by the number of cards in the deck (60) as a simple probability (I understand that this changes, but I just want a simple means of comparison) and multiplying that by the amount of damage that the card deals in one turn. So, for example, if I have 4 Gurmag Anglers and they deal 5 damage, then this would be (1/15)*5= 0.33. The expected value of a Gurmag Angler in one turn is 0.33 damage.
But, not all decks work on the basis of attacking life totals. And it occurs to me that Death's Shadow gains value from dealing itself damager whereas other decks don't. Aside from sheer estimation (it's turn 5 and boy I could really use removal this turn), has anyone looked at how to have a clear cut way of determining the EV for various cards in a 60 card deck?
And, for a reference, when there were creatures with variable damage or life loss from spells, I took the average damage or created my own estimation. Crude, but I'm not looking for anything too complicated (unless it's already out there).
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But, not all decks work on the basis of attacking life totals. And it occurs to me that Death's Shadow gains value from dealing itself damager whereas other decks don't. Aside from sheer estimation (it's turn 5 and boy I could really use removal this turn), has anyone looked at how to have a clear cut way of determining the EV for various cards in a 60 card deck?
And, for a reference, when there were creatures with variable damage or life loss from spells, I took the average damage or created my own estimation. Crude, but I'm not looking for anything too complicated (unless it's already out there).