At Grand Prix Las Vegas, Pascal Maynard took a Foil Tarmogoyf over a Burst Lightning while drafting R/W Double Strike. He went on to make top 4, but not win the tournament, lose at least one game because he ran Mighty Leap when he would have run Burst Lightning instead, and not get enough pro points to get ahead in the race to make it into the World Championships. However, he did get the only MM2 foil Tarmogoyf with a GP Top 8 stamp in existence, which is awesome, is probably worth even more than a normal foil Tarmogoyf, and will cover his expenses for going to more Grand Prix (he didn't have enough money to attend more). If you were in Pascal Maynard's position, would you have taken the Burst Lightning or the foil Goyf?
Let's assume the Goyf is a blank (Goyf is playable in Limited but not great, and certainly not worth splashing).
Burst Lightning over Mighty Leap might add 1% to your match win rate. But let's err on the side of saying it was a bad call, and let's assume it adds 5%.
At 5% the tournament equity difference is $25 in the first T8 round, $60 in the semis (if you get there) and $65 in the finals if you get there.
So no ifs, no buts, no maybes - take the foil Goyf. It's the +EV call *even over a Comet Storm* (which might add 5% to your match win %) and it's not even close. Don't be results-focused; that's how poker players go broke. Make this highest +EV choice.
Edit: Not factored in the stamp, or the Pro Points situation as I don't know the value of a Pro Point.
It all depends on his goal. Is his goal to Draft the best deck possible no matter the circumstance? Is his goal to have had drafted a FOIL Goyf and yet win the biggest Grand Prix of all time? Or is his goal to secure some extra value while playing for the win?
I personally probably would have taken the FOIL Goyf, but who knows once I got to that stage. I played at that Grand Prix. I was pretty tired after the first 9 rounds, despite being a win short of Day 2. I have played a few Day 2s before, but never top 8ed a Grand Prix. I can imagine that at that point, you're not in the best mind frame. Mind you, I ate granola bars, Clif bars, drank water and Monster, and ate some Convention Center junk food, so I'm guessing his situation was not all that better. I'm not trying to make excuses. I'm just saying that everyone is not thinking 100% right in this situation. That being said, as a collector, I would love to have a Stamped GP Foil Goyf.
When I actually played Limited often and was good at it, I passed a Misty Rainforest in an 8 man Draft for Marsh Casualties. The primary reason I passed it was that I thought I would never be lucky enough to get Marsh Casualties again and that I already had preordered the play set of all of the fetches, so I didn't care about extras yet. I actually passed the Misty Rainforest to a Pro Player that was next to me and he was fairly surprised about it. I won that Draft and got a total of $20 (paying $12 for the Draft), so the EV wasn't really there, but I was fighting for DCI Rating at the time to give me Byes at events.
But nowadays since I don't play enough to actually be good at the game, I would definitely consider taking the stamped FOIL Goyf. That being said, I did pass a Leyline of Sanctity in one Draft that I did and did TAKE a Karn Liberated as a rare pick in the other Draft that I did over the GP Las Vegas weekend. So, you can see I am kind of split on what to do....
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I would pass the goyf, however, my decision is determined by the extra value of being on camera. A stamped foil goyf sure is a unique and high value card that comes with a story to tell, but there is also uniqueness in the moment of making the decision on camera. If I pass the goyf, I get immeasurable respect from other pros and fans around the world. It would be the ultimate display of restraint and commitment to strategy over value. Let someone else sell the goyf; it will always be known as the goyf that I opened and passed. Being a legend is worth more than a few thousand dollars.
On the other hand, it is tempting to be an even greater legend and still win the draft despite raredrafting. But that's risky. Ironically, in terms of how many badass points you get, passing the goyf is the correct "value" decision because you will be a man of godly restraint whether you win or lose.
I just read those tweets. They were pretty disappointing and it does in fact make them seem super salty. What does it even have to do with them at all? I think that it kind of sucks that someone can just pick apart every Draft choice afterward to "try" to make them feel badly.
Also, I agree completely with sirgog. Some people are being too results oriented.
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Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
It all depends on his goal. Is his goal to Draft the best deck possible no matter the circumstance? Is his goal to have had drafted a FOIL Goyf and yet win the biggest Grand Prix of all time? Or is his goal to secure some extra value while playing for the win?
This is true; my previous post was about PURE EV considerations. That's the mindset of someone that's dabbled in poker for you.
If you attach a sentimental or emotional value to winning (beyond the prizemoney) you need to reassess the calculations.
It's not the only foil goyf with the stamp in existence. My Friend Scott Lipp opened one in the second draft of day 2. There are two of them and Scott is currently asking for $1500 with no takers. He should have taken the burst lightning.
I think the GP Top 8 stamp is different from the Day 2 stamp, and it is the only foil MM2 Goyf opened in a GP top 8.
Also this tweet from BBD "I would have taken the Goyf. If "EV" calculations are the only thing you care about, then Magic is the wrong place to be. Have a little fun."
I'm not an expert, but I think there were a bunch of stamps (approximately 9?) at GP Vegas.
If chances of a foil goyf is correct at 1/249 packs (not sure if correct, seems roughly right) 395 and 366 players turned up for the day 2's (in event 1 and 2)
761 players.
2 drafts each
3 packs per draft.
4566 packs total
roughly equivalent to 18 Foil Goyfs?
probably not exactly 18, but almost certainly more than 2.
As for the P2P1… If it were me, I'd like to think I'd take the on-lane burst lightning, I really do. Foil Goyf would test my resolve though. I certainly don't agree with the crucifixion he is seeing from certain elements of the Pro community (I actually agree with lsv's thoughts that there are non-financial elements to a GP win etc, if you are making a decision based purely on money). Did he rare draft. Yes. Did he think long.and.hard. about it? Yes. Was it a mistake? Probably. it did appear to have an impact in the games he played.
If he'd palmed that Goyf and still won, this would not have bubbled over quite as much as it has. I do think there is a lot of hyperbole out there, most especially in some of the sporting comparisons...
For me, the most disappointing on this all is Owen Turtenwald's disgusting Twitter campaign. I lost all respect for this guy, as well as those who felt compelled to make pathetic statements like "I've devoted my life to Magic. It's very disappointing to see that one of my peers would sell out for so little" (Duke), "One could even say: If you can be bribed into rare drafting that easily, why are you spending all this time playing Magic?" (Mowshowitz) "I just lost all respect for Pascal Maynard." (Jensen). "have some goddamn respect for the game" (Utter-Leyton)
I have lost respect for all these guys. I do not know what motivates them to make such statements. It makes them look like elitist, pathetic poseurs beating one man who made a quite reasonable decision under time and stress restraint. I wonder how many of those smartasses would do otherwise in the same situation.
It just unveiled the true characters of some people, and what was seen is not pretty. And I am not talking about Maynard here.
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It's not the only foil goyf with the stamp in existence. My Friend Scott Lipp opened one in the second draft of day 2. There are two of them and Scott is currently asking for $1500 with no takers. He should have taken the burst lightning.
I think the GP Top 8 stamp is different from the Day 2 stamp, and it is the only foil MM2 Goyf opened in a GP top 8.
It's not different, Pascal and my friend compared them after the matches finished. 2 of them exist in the world.
For me, the most disappointing on this all is Owen Turtenwald's disgusting Twitter campaign. I lost all respect for this guy, as well as those who felt compelled to make pathetic statements like "I've devoted my life to Magic. It's very disappointing to see that one of my peers would sell out for so little" (Duke), "One could even say: If you can be bribed into rare drafting that easily, why are you spending all this time playing Magic?" (Mowshowitz) "I just lost all respect for Pascal Maynard." (Jensen). "have some goddamn respect for the game" (Utter-Leyton)
I have lost respect for all these guys. I do not know what motivates them to make such statements. It makes them look like elitist, pathetic poseurs beating one man who made a quite reasonable decision under time and stress restraint. I wonder how many of those smartasses would do otherwise in the same situation.
It just unveiled the true characters of some people, and what was seen is not pretty. And I am not talking about Maynard here.
I agree completely. It's shameful and embarrassing that these supposed icons of the game made such a big deal over such a small thing. Clearly, they have an opinion of what magic should be and say **** anything that does agree with exactly what they think.
He picked a treasure for life instead just trying as hard as he could to win. I think that's a fantastic decision.
I can respect Wrapter and Reid's comments, because they were talking about how as a professional player, you're meant to focus more on playing well, and building a better deck than money-drafting, and I completely understand what they meant. Turtenwald and Jensen, however, stepped out of line, saying that the act was wrong in every way, and that it's disgusting that he did that. Wrapter said that playing Magic isn't about the money. I can agree there. Reid said that he's disappointed that someone would draft value over drafting well, which is also understandable, however, after Pascal's explanation, Reid apologised, and admitted he was out of line. I can't expect Wrapter to apologise, purely because he was talking about the philosophy of Magic, and why we play it. Turtenwald also admitted that he used the wrong choice of words, actually intending to say that Pascal drafted badly, which he did, but followed up by saying that a professional player should strive for victory, and glory, not short term financial gain. Paul Reitzl said that it was a hideous choice, but it's no big deal. Good on him.
Pascal drafted badly, and I think it was the wrong choice, but he wanted money, which is not necessarily a bad thing, it just distinguishes between the pros, and the high-level pros.
I am genuinely confused by all of these comments. A comment like, "That was a bad pick", or "I probably would have taken something else" is fine.
But the name calling, the insults, suggesting that Pascal isn't really a pro and has no respect for the integrity of the game (whatever that means, was he cheating?) is just waaay too extreme of a reaction. The only people I have lost respect for are Reid, Owen, Huey and the others involved in this smear campaign.
It may not have even been a bad decision, considering that auction is currently over $1,500.
50% of the proceeds are going to charity. It's at $510 currently, meaning $250 is heading to charity at the very least. I wonder when Turtenwald last donated that much to charity?
Frankly, Pascal is coming out of this a hero. He's the everyman, not some elitist snob at the top of the game. Pros spend so much time trying to show they're just "one of us" (because our support is what keeps them in sponsorship money), and then they come out with this arrogant, patronising tripe to reinforce just how distant they are. Pascal did what 99% of us "scrubs" would do, and I love him for it.
I'm also extremely disappointed in some of the pros who have come out against him. People like Turtenwald, Jensen, Zvi... whatever. I don't care, I aways got the impression from interviews and watching them play that they were snobby elitists anyway (watching Turtenwald's salty face as my countryman Stephen Madden crushed him on camera with Strength from the Fallen at Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir was amazing). This reaction from them doesn't exactly surprise me. But Paul Rietzl, Reid Duke, Wrapter? I expected better of them, and I'm disheartened to see them joining in the online bullying campaign.
On the other hand, PV, BBD and Kibler have been even further elevated in my estimation. They're the pros we should be looking up to - bloody brilliant at the game, but friendly, welcoming and above all they don't take it too bloody seriously.
Current price is US $1,580.00. Hows that fit into the EV equation? I can't see a $1500+ card being a bad pick at all.
I go to one GP a year--whatever modern one is sort of closest.
Grinding and obsessing and traveling every weekend like these guys do its inhumane--and knowing that I semi-aspired to do it like the pro's--I lost all respect for them. Its a great game, but a real lame aspiration.
Their opinions should only be respected when its about cards, not about anything else--I don't think the majority of them have achieved a healthy balance of priorities to take seriously regarding any life matters.
I'd take the lightening and shoot to win as I'd more hope to achieve a better result as a memory than get an expensive card...but I get it, and if its worth more most likely then goyf is probably where its at.
50% of the proceeds are going to charity. It's at $510 currently, meaning $250 is heading to charity at the very least. I wonder when Turtenwald last donated that much to charity?
Frankly, Pascal is coming out of this a hero. He's the everyman, not some elitist snob at the top of the game. Pros spend so much time trying to show they're just "one of us" (because our support is what keeps them in sponsorship money), and then they come out with this arrogant, patronising tripe to reinforce just how distant they are. Pascal did what 99% of us "scrubs" would do, and I love him for it.
I'm also extremely disappointed in some of the pros who have come out against him. People like Turtenwald, Jensen, Zvi... whatever. I don't care, I aways got the impression from interviews and watching them play that they were snobby elitists anyway (watching Turtenwald's salty face as my countryman Stephen Madden crushed him on camera with Strength from the Fallen at Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir was amazing). This reaction from them doesn't exactly surprise me. But Paul Rietzl, Reid Duke, Wrapter? I expected better of them, and I'm disheartened to see them joining in the online bullying campaign.
On the other hand, PV, BBD and Kibler have been even further elevated in my estimation. They're the pros we should be looking up to - bloody brilliant at the game, but friendly, welcoming and above all they don't take it too bloody seriously.
Current price is US $1,580.00. Hows that fit into the EV equation? I can't see a $1500+ card being a bad pick at all.
My calculations were that with the GP cash prize structure, a USD 150 blank card would be about equal in EV to a Comet Storm (the best card in the set in Limited), if you assume the Comet Storm adds 5% to your match win rate. This assumes pro points have no value to you (if you assess a pro point as being worth USD 1000 then the blank card needs to be worth a lot more).
Burst Lightning is no Comet Storm, and USD 790 + USD 790 to a charity you care about is much more than USD 150.
That said I wouldn't call the people espousing the other position "online bullies". They are jerks at worst.
It's pretty shocking to see a reasonable guy deciding not to pass hundreds of dollars getting treated worse than honest to god cheaters. It's pathetic to see how many pros are completely petulant manchildren. It's nice to see a few people acting sane, like PV and BBD at least.
so..he took a rare that could pose a threat over a common he was likely to see in another pack? seems kind of a no brainier if you ask me..i mean..isn't hate drafting a part of determining the meta while drafting?
also, honestly cant think of a single person, pro or not, that would pass that goyf. Pascel is just getting all this hate dumped on him when its clearly unwarranted.
tl/dr: move along, nothing to see here.
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Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Burst Lightning over Mighty Leap might add 1% to your match win rate. But let's err on the side of saying it was a bad call, and let's assume it adds 5%.
At 5% the tournament equity difference is $25 in the first T8 round, $60 in the semis (if you get there) and $65 in the finals if you get there.
So no ifs, no buts, no maybes - take the foil Goyf. It's the +EV call *even over a Comet Storm* (which might add 5% to your match win %) and it's not even close. Don't be results-focused; that's how poker players go broke. Make this highest +EV choice.
Edit: Not factored in the stamp, or the Pro Points situation as I don't know the value of a Pro Point.
I personally probably would have taken the FOIL Goyf, but who knows once I got to that stage. I played at that Grand Prix. I was pretty tired after the first 9 rounds, despite being a win short of Day 2. I have played a few Day 2s before, but never top 8ed a Grand Prix. I can imagine that at that point, you're not in the best mind frame. Mind you, I ate granola bars, Clif bars, drank water and Monster, and ate some Convention Center junk food, so I'm guessing his situation was not all that better. I'm not trying to make excuses. I'm just saying that everyone is not thinking 100% right in this situation. That being said, as a collector, I would love to have a Stamped GP Foil Goyf.
When I actually played Limited often and was good at it, I passed a Misty Rainforest in an 8 man Draft for Marsh Casualties. The primary reason I passed it was that I thought I would never be lucky enough to get Marsh Casualties again and that I already had preordered the play set of all of the fetches, so I didn't care about extras yet. I actually passed the Misty Rainforest to a Pro Player that was next to me and he was fairly surprised about it. I won that Draft and got a total of $20 (paying $12 for the Draft), so the EV wasn't really there, but I was fighting for DCI Rating at the time to give me Byes at events.
But nowadays since I don't play enough to actually be good at the game, I would definitely consider taking the stamped FOIL Goyf. That being said, I did pass a Leyline of Sanctity in one Draft that I did and did TAKE a Karn Liberated as a rare pick in the other Draft that I did over the GP Las Vegas weekend. So, you can see I am kind of split on what to do....
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)https://twitter.com/ReidDuke/status/605431735694680065
https://twitter.com/OwenTweetenwald/status/605214811736018944
https://twitter.com/HueyJensen/status/605211503914917888
On the other hand, it is tempting to be an even greater legend and still win the draft despite raredrafting. But that's risky. Ironically, in terms of how many badass points you get, passing the goyf is the correct "value" decision because you will be a man of godly restraint whether you win or lose.
I just read those tweets. They were pretty disappointing and it does in fact make them seem super salty. What does it even have to do with them at all? I think that it kind of sucks that someone can just pick apart every Draft choice afterward to "try" to make them feel badly.
Also, I agree completely with sirgog. Some people are being too results oriented.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)This is true; my previous post was about PURE EV considerations. That's the mindset of someone that's dabbled in poker for you.
If you attach a sentimental or emotional value to winning (beyond the prizemoney) you need to reassess the calculations.
Also
https://twitter.com/shaharshenhar/status/605443491972251649
https://twitter.com/wrapter/status/605231167835504640
https://twitter.com/TheZvi/status/605399797684662275
However, there are a lot of pros who disagree with those pros.
https://twitter.com/PVDDR/status/605444124469129216
https://twitter.com/Jonnymagic00/status/605520819536703488
https://twitter.com/CCalcano/status/605462206759575552
https://twitter.com/Gatormage/status/605480283278737409
https://twitter.com/tommartell/status/605453466442436609
https://twitter.com/kaibudde/status/605354731922419713
https://twitter.com/bmkibler/status/605442748368306177
https://twitter.com/InsayneHayne/status/605466375939723264
I personally would have taken the Goyf. It just seems like a nice fallback plan if you lose since it isn't like the Burst Lightning guarantees a win.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
I think the GP Top 8 stamp is different from the Day 2 stamp, and it is the only foil MM2 Goyf opened in a GP top 8.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
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If chances of a foil goyf is correct at 1/249 packs (not sure if correct, seems roughly right) 395 and 366 players turned up for the day 2's (in event 1 and 2)
761 players.
2 drafts each
3 packs per draft.
4566 packs total
roughly equivalent to 18 Foil Goyfs?
probably not exactly 18, but almost certainly more than 2.
As for the P2P1… If it were me, I'd like to think I'd take the on-lane burst lightning, I really do. Foil Goyf would test my resolve though. I certainly don't agree with the crucifixion he is seeing from certain elements of the Pro community (I actually agree with lsv's thoughts that there are non-financial elements to a GP win etc, if you are making a decision based purely on money). Did he rare draft. Yes. Did he think long.and.hard. about it? Yes. Was it a mistake? Probably. it did appear to have an impact in the games he played.
If he'd palmed that Goyf and still won, this would not have bubbled over quite as much as it has. I do think there is a lot of hyperbole out there, most especially in some of the sporting comparisons...
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I have lost respect for all these guys. I do not know what motivates them to make such statements. It makes them look like elitist, pathetic poseurs beating one man who made a quite reasonable decision under time and stress restraint. I wonder how many of those smartasses would do otherwise in the same situation.
It just unveiled the true characters of some people, and what was seen is not pretty. And I am not talking about Maynard here.
Let this great clan rest in peace (2001-2011)
It is different, here is a stamp on a foil tarmogofy opened on day 2. http://imgur.com/GRDUOi1
Here is a video of the top 8 one with a different stamp. http://www.twitch.tv/magic2/v/5666987?t=5h40m04s
I agree completely. It's shameful and embarrassing that these supposed icons of the game made such a big deal over such a small thing. Clearly, they have an opinion of what magic should be and say **** anything that does agree with exactly what they think.
He picked a treasure for life instead just trying as hard as he could to win. I think that's a fantastic decision.
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Legacy - BWG Junk Stoneblade
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Pascal drafted badly, and I think it was the wrong choice, but he wanted money, which is not necessarily a bad thing, it just distinguishes between the pros, and the high-level pros.
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But the name calling, the insults, suggesting that Pascal isn't really a pro and has no respect for the integrity of the game (whatever that means, was he cheating?) is just waaay too extreme of a reaction. The only people I have lost respect for are Reid, Owen, Huey and the others involved in this smear campaign.
It may not have even been a bad decision, considering that auction is currently over $1,500.
Current price is US $1,580.00. Hows that fit into the EV equation? I can't see a $1500+ card being a bad pick at all.
Grinding and obsessing and traveling every weekend like these guys do its inhumane--and knowing that I semi-aspired to do it like the pro's--I lost all respect for them. Its a great game, but a real lame aspiration.
Their opinions should only be respected when its about cards, not about anything else--I don't think the majority of them have achieved a healthy balance of priorities to take seriously regarding any life matters.
I'd take the lightening and shoot to win as I'd more hope to achieve a better result as a memory than get an expensive card...but I get it, and if its worth more most likely then goyf is probably where its at.
My calculations were that with the GP cash prize structure, a USD 150 blank card would be about equal in EV to a Comet Storm (the best card in the set in Limited), if you assume the Comet Storm adds 5% to your match win rate. This assumes pro points have no value to you (if you assess a pro point as being worth USD 1000 then the blank card needs to be worth a lot more).
Burst Lightning is no Comet Storm, and USD 790 + USD 790 to a charity you care about is much more than USD 150.
That said I wouldn't call the people espousing the other position "online bullies". They are jerks at worst.
also, honestly cant think of a single person, pro or not, that would pass that goyf. Pascel is just getting all this hate dumped on him when its clearly unwarranted.
tl/dr: move along, nothing to see here.