We are running a Conspiracy draft tonight and were trying to figure out how often you get a specific 15th card slot rare like Lore Seeker. I guess it should depend on the number of Rares for that slot.
Without knowing the actual ratios the best we can do is guess.
"Draft simulator" cubes get the best results when they make uncommons twice as common as rares, and commons twice as common as uncommons, so we'll go with that. That means that there are 25 possible 15th card choices. Of these, 8 are rare, 8 are uncommon, and 9 are common. So we count each rare once, each common 4 times, and each uncommon twice. This leads us to 60 possible options.
So the odds of picking a specific rare are 1/60 (1.5%), a specific uncommon is 2/60 (3%), and a specific common is 4/60 (7%)
However, the odds of picking up *ANY* rare are 8/60 (13%), the odds of ANY uncommon are 16/60 (27%), the odds of ANY common are 36/60 (60%)
That means the odds of NOT seeing a rare are about 87%. Compound probability says we just need to multiply that percentage for however many packs are in the draft.
So 8 people means 24 packs. That means the odds of not seeing a rare are 87%^24. Or 3.5%. That means the odds of seeing a 15 slot rare is 96.5% for the whole playgroup.
Using similar math, the odds of seeing a specific rare (such as Lore Seeker) is about 48% for the entire playgroup.
So, based on the odds that I just kind've guessed at, you have about a 6% chance of seeing the conspiracy rare you want in your three booster packs, and the entire pod has a 48% chance of seeing a specific rare. Meanwhile, you are almost certain to see at least ONE rare, and it seems about 1/8 packs should have a rare, so seeing anywhere from 3-5 rare 15-slot cards is standard.
I reiterate! This math is based on formulas of rarity that may not be correct, but I'm confident it's a decent ballpark.
Hope you have fun OP! I certainly enjoy the set!
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
"Draft simulator" cubes get the best results when they make uncommons twice as common as rares, and commons twice as common as uncommons, so we'll go with that. That means that there are 25 possible 15th card choices. Of these, 8 are rare, 8 are uncommon, and 9 are common. So we count each rare once, each common 4 times, and each uncommon twice. This leads us to 60 possible options.
So the odds of picking a specific rare are 1/60 (1.5%), a specific uncommon is 2/60 (3%), and a specific common is 4/60 (7%)
However, the odds of picking up *ANY* rare are 8/60 (13%), the odds of ANY uncommon are 16/60 (27%), the odds of ANY common are 36/60 (60%)
That means the odds of NOT seeing a rare are about 87%. Compound probability says we just need to multiply that percentage for however many packs are in the draft.
So 8 people means 24 packs. That means the odds of not seeing a rare are 87%^24. Or 3.5%. That means the odds of seeing a 15 slot rare is 96.5% for the whole playgroup.
Using similar math, the odds of seeing a specific rare (such as Lore Seeker) is about 48% for the entire playgroup.
So, based on the odds that I just kind've guessed at, you have about a 6% chance of seeing the conspiracy rare you want in your three booster packs, and the entire pod has a 48% chance of seeing a specific rare. Meanwhile, you are almost certain to see at least ONE rare, and it seems about 1/8 packs should have a rare, so seeing anywhere from 3-5 rare 15-slot cards is standard.
I reiterate! This math is based on formulas of rarity that may not be correct, but I'm confident it's a decent ballpark.
Hope you have fun OP! I certainly enjoy the set!