Goyf was $2 at the pre-release. It was around $5 for about a month or two after the release. It rose to $15-$25 in block and standard. After block rotated out, it didn't drop in price, it started to catch on with magic players and rose to $40-$50 and stayed there until it rotated out of standard and was only legal in Extended, Legacy and Vintage. Decks at that time were splashing green just to play Goyf. It was pretty stable at $50 for a year or so I think. However, it eventually started to climb again and rose to around $75 even as it came closer and closer to rotating out of extended. In 2011 I sold my $2-$5 Goyfs for around $70 each as I consolidated my collection and I never play green. I bought them back when they were cheap as a cool niche card to play in my casual decks and watched it explode and just rode the roller coaster. I got off when I decided to move, otherwise I would still have them. It wasn't until Modern became a thing that Goyf rose to $100, to $150 and more. I think it is $200 or so now.
Even if Goyf was banned in modern, it wouldn't take a massive hit. I cannot possibly see it crashing much lower than back to $150 or $125 at the most. Future shifted cards were pretty much a disguised test for the production, distribution and consumer reaction to mythic rares before there were mythic rares. Even if Goyf were banned, it is still a card in high demand to legacy and vintage players who would be more than happy to buy up copies from modern players. it has an established place in Magic's history and even if you don't play vintage or legacy, and you don't know anyone near you who does, doesn't mean that there aren't a lot of vintage and legacy players out there, along with non-sanctioned proxy tournaments where you pay $30+ for a chance to win expensive cards.
==================================
A vintage and/or legacy masters set would not have a significant negative impact on the classic Alpha/Beta/Unlimited/Revised and original printings of classic cards. Just as i posted some 40+ pages ago, you have to look no further than Shivan Dragon and Wrath of God to prove my point. The current printing of Shivan Dragon is worth around ten to fifty cents each. A couple of beta Shivan Dragons recently closed on ebay between $130 & $480.
The same is true about Wrath of God. Several copies are worth around $5. The 10th edition is about $8, and the Beta has an asking price of about $320. How much would those beta copies be worth if they had not been printed 15+ times? They aren't good in any legal format. Power and dual lands are format staples in that they are legal in, cause their prices to be driven up exponentially higher than just the raw collector's value. It is my personal opinion that Modern Masters 1 proved and Modern masters 2015 will continue to prove that limited reprints will actually raise the value of in-demand cards. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if we saw Liliana of the Veil reprinted in MM2015 and it's price shoot up yet again from $80 (average) to over $100. Please quote me on that and tell me I was wrong if that doesn't happen (if she doesn't get reprinted, that doesn't count - though you could do the same about Karn and Goyf.) I was talking about this in persona and online back in 2011 long before Modern Masters that they needed to do a set like that and they finally did. They need to do the same for vintage/legacy. They have for MODO, and my understanding is that it is a huge success.
A Vintage Masters Black Lotus is roughly $140. A digital copy of black lotus is $140. Let that sink in. Online, Tarmogoyf is only worth $60+, and I don't know the distribution numbers, but the point stands that if a digital copy, which are always significantly cheaper than the paper versions have a Vintage Master copy of black lotus at $140, how much do you think a paper Vintage master copy would be worth? I can almost guarantee you it would have a market price of $500+ at release and would stabilize between $400-$600 based on trends and distribution. In 2007 when I was really into collecting and the details of the market, a beta Black lotus was roughly $2,000. Now it is closer to $7,000+ and the only thing that has changed is time. It didn't suddenly become more useful. It is just 8 years older. That's it.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Whatever style you wish to play, be it fast and frenzied or slow and tactical, the surest way to defeat your opponent consistently is by dominating him or her in the war of card advantage." - Brian Wiseman, April 1996
Shenanigans. Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game. Price of duals and power are based both on collecatbiity and playablility, meaning they're in demand. Being in demand = price goes up = old printing of the cards's price go up because they're the pimp version of the cards that are already hard to get. Simple.
Think of alpha and beta cards as super foils. They go up with the price of the card meaning its very much tied to how expensive the non foil version of the card is.
The rest of you players have Modern, Standard, Cube, EDH, Kitchen table, pauper, peasant.
Magic has plenty of room to grow. Players have plenty of formats to play.
The only gripe people have about the reserve list is that it makes 2 formats too pricey.
You know both EDH and Cube play RL cards, right?
It's ridiculous and based on jealousy. People see a card worth 1000 dollars and that ...just makes them go insane. it just rubs people the wrong way.
It's not steeped in ANY logic at all. It's pure emotion that people rationalize around.
It's not even as if Wizards declared to people. You CANT play legacy or Vintage.
Wizards never told anyone they can't play magic. Heaven forbid wizards actually do something to keep the financial confidence of magic players (and GAME SHOPS!) who have bought in already.
Considering that many of the advocates in fact already have collections, right? Also, how is what you're talking about not simply based on emotion?
Yes, but unlike the duallands he is played in modern, which also has a big playerbase. Do you really believe goyf would be as expensive if he was banned in modern tomorrow?
STATISTICS.
All of these "Let's eliminate bad cards" crusades are simply ignorant. And when they start to devolve into "WotC is conspiring to give us crappy cards," they just become embarrassing. MATH is conspiring to give you crappy cards.
Magic isnt like this. It is an investment , like it or not.
No, it's a game. Arcelor Mittal stock is an investment.
EDIT: this goes beyond any Reserved List discussion too. Buy Magic cards, open Magic card packs, keep collections of Magic cards in binders and play Magic card games with Magic cards, but please please please do not 'invest' in a game.
If you say so. I just wanted to be on the safe side, because i never saw serious vintage decklists with tarmogoyf, but i am not a vintage expert anyway.
I've seen him played in gro and some other lists, though I'll admit he's less popular in vintage.
STATISTICS.
All of these "Let's eliminate bad cards" crusades are simply ignorant. And when they start to devolve into "WotC is conspiring to give us crappy cards," they just become embarrassing. MATH is conspiring to give you crappy cards.
Magic isnt like this. It is an investment , like it or not.
No, it's a game. Arcelor Mittal stock is an investment.
EDIT: this goes beyond any Reserved List discussion too. Buy Magic cards, open Magic card packs, keep collections of Magic cards in binders and play Magic card games with Magic cards, but please please please do not 'invest' in a game.
Magic isnt like this. It is an investment , like it or not.
No, it's a game. Arcelor Mittal stock is an investment.
EDIT: this goes beyond any Reserved List discussion too. Buy Magic cards, open Magic card packs, keep collections of Magic cards in binders and play Magic card games with Magic cards, but please please please do not 'invest' in a game.
Sure it's a investment. In fact if you invested in magic(hell for some eternal cards, even a year ago) from the get go, you would be doing extremely well right now.
Shenanigans. Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game. Price of duals and power are based both on collecatbiity and playablility, meaning they're in demand. Being in demand = price goes up = old printing of the cards's price go up because they're the pimp version of the cards that are already hard to get. Simple.
Think of alpha and beta cards as super foils. They go up with the price of the card meaning its very much tied to how expensive the non foil version of the card is.
You pretty much repeated my point for me. Did you not ever read what I wrote? Take two cards with no current playability, just pure nostalgia, a ten cent card, was sole for $480 like a month ago. If power were reprinted, what a number of ignotant collectors think is that it would cause their beta and unlimited P9 cards to plummet. Who here really thinks that reprinting Library of Alexandria would have a negative impact on the original AN printings? Modern Masters has shown that reprints of in-demand cards have raised the value by raising said demand. This isn't 1996. We are no longer in the middle of a comic book crash, sports card saturation crash, and Beanie Baby fad. The reserve list was a knee jerk reaction to a knee jerk reaction and a huge mistake.
I can't find he link in my history, but I was reading old MaRo articles last week and I copy and pasted some of his quotes to my Facebook on this very subject, so I will do the same here:
Quote from Mark Rosewater »
I've talked about this before but it's an important enough point to make again. The reserve list (the list that tells us what cards we can never reprint, for those who don't know) was created long ago by people who no longer work at Wizards. It was done to help ease concerns of our player base at the time. The majority of current R&D feels that the reprint list isn't fulfilling the function it was created for (and at times seems to actually counteract it), but, and this is the important sticking point, we've learned through market research that the majority of our audience feels it's important for Wizards of the Coast, as a company, to keep its word. So we're stuck between a rock and a hard place. We want to do what is best for the game and our players and we want to keep the confidence of our consumers. If anyone has a solution to this Gordian knot, please let me know.
Here is Aaron Forsythe talking about Modern and he hints at the reserve list a few times, linked with a time stamp: https://youtu.be/C-r-wfodlro?t=7m51s
WotC heads, prominent members of the community, and owners of the largest gaming stores in the world have all commented on this subject and at one point came together to secretly talk about the reserve list and its potential removal and allegedly, all came to the same conclusion - they want to get rid of it, but (as MaRo said in the above quote) WotC and Hasbro feel they have a promise to uphold. They are between a rock and a hard place.
It really is a mute point until someone can find the solution to the problem. in the mean time, if anyone wants to say they shouldn't remove the Reserved list because of fear of what reprints will do to the secondary value of the cards... they are 100% demonstrably wrong. There is no argument to keep the reserve list outside of upholding the promise they made. They agree and it is the only thing preventing them from going back on it.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Whatever style you wish to play, be it fast and frenzied or slow and tactical, the surest way to defeat your opponent consistently is by dominating him or her in the war of card advantage." - Brian Wiseman, April 1996
Shenanigans. Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game. Price of duals and power are based both on collecatbiity and playablility, meaning they're in demand. Being in demand = price goes up = old printing of the cards's price go up because they're the pimp version of the cards that are already hard to get. Simple.
Think of alpha and beta cards as super foils. They go up with the price of the card meaning its very much tied to how expensive the non foil version of the card is.
You pretty much repeated my point for me. Did you not ever read what I wrote? Take two cards with no current playability, just pure nostalgia, a ten cent card, was sole for $480 like a month ago. If power were reprinted, what a number of ignotant collectors think is that it would cause their beta and unlimited P9 cards to plummet. Who here really thinks that reprinting Library of Alexandria would have a negative impact on the original AN printings? Modern Masters has shown that reprints of in-demand cards have raised the value by raising said demand. This isn't 1996. We are no longer in the middle of a comic book crash, sports card saturation crash, and Beanie Baby fad. The reserve list was a knee jerk reaction to a knee jerk reaction and a huge mistake.
You're trying to say well since a Shivan Dragon sold for $480 therefor a alpha dual should stay at $2000. Which is false. If age and collectability was the only driving force for alpha cards a Shivan Dragon should also be $2000 since they are of the same rarity and printed in the same numbers.
This is basic supply and demand, demand causes revised duals to go to hundreds of dollars, which makes alpha duals to go to thousands of dollars. More supply = less demand = prices go down INDEPENDENT of age and collect ability. So yes, prices on old playable cards will definitely go down due to more supply.
Shenanigans. Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game. Price of duals and power are based both on collecatbiity and playablility, meaning they're in demand. Being in demand = price goes up = old printing of the cards's price go up because they're the pimp version of the cards that are already hard to get. Simple.
Think of alpha and beta cards as super foils. They go up with the price of the card meaning its very much tied to how expensive the non foil version of the card is.
You pretty much repeated my point for me. Did you not ever read what I wrote? Take two cards with no current playability, just pure nostalgia, a ten cent card, was sole for $480 like a month ago. If power were reprinted, what a number of ignotant collectors think is that it would cause their beta and unlimited P9 cards to plummet. Who here really thinks that reprinting Library of Alexandria would have a negative impact on the original AN printings? Modern Masters has shown that reprints of in-demand cards have raised the value by raising said demand. This isn't 1996. We are no longer in the middle of a comic book crash, sports card saturation crash, and Beanie Baby fad. The reserve list was a knee jerk reaction to a knee jerk reaction and a huge mistake.
You're trying to say well since a Shivan Dragon sold for $480 therefor a alpha dual should stay at $2000. Which is false. If age and collectability was the only driving force for alpha cards a Shivan Dragon should also be $2000 since they are of the same rarity and printed in the same numbers.
This is basic supply and demand, demand causes revised duals to go to hundreds of dollars, which makes alpha duals to go to thousands of dollars. More supply = less demand = prices go down INDEPENDENT of age and collect ability. So yes, prices on old playable cards will definitely go down due to more supply.
First of all, "more supply = less demand" makes no sense. Price is a function of supply and demand. Higher supply does not effect demand except in the most fringe of cases.
The reason a Beta Shivan Dragon is cheaper than a Beta dual is that demand for that Beta dragon is lower. Printing more duals doesn't decrease demand for Beta duals. It increases supply for duals in general. But increasing supply for duals in general only decreases the price of Beta duals if the reprint duals and Beta duals are substitute goods. You may be tempted to think that a Beta dual and a reprint dual are substitute goods because they have the same name, but they are absolutely not. The markets for a Beta dual and a revised dual are completely different just like the markets for a Beta Shivan Dragon and and a Revised Shivan Dragon are completely different. Reprinting duals could negatively affect Revised prices if the supply outpaces the increased demand due to wizard's support, but any negative effect on Betas would be negligible.
There's the pimp factor of alpha and beta cards and collectability. It's why SCG lists NM alpha underground sea at 8 grand. Functionally all u. sea's are created equal obviously but if play value was the only thing determining price by that rationale summer, alpha, beta, unlimited, and revised duals would cost the same amount monetarily. There will never be more alpha bayou's printed/the supply is fixed and only going down from this point onward. Unless WotC abolished the list and announced a re release of alpha that you could not distinguish from the original alpha but the odds of that occurring are 1 in a googolplex/never happening. If cards like power 9 were reprinted the originals would maintain or go up in price due to increased demand in vintage as a format not to mention how iconic original pieces of power would be in comparison to some newframe pieces of ***** that when looked at side by side would look absolutely terrible in comparison to the originals especially alpha and beta.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Yawgmoth," Freyalise whispered as she set the bomb, "now you will pay for your treachery."
Shenanigans. Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game. Price of duals and power are based both on collecatbiity and playablility, meaning they're in demand. Being in demand = price goes up = old printing of the cards's price go up because they're the pimp version of the cards that are already hard to get. Simple.
Think of alpha and beta cards as super foils. They go up with the price of the card meaning its very much tied to how expensive the non foil version of the card is.
You pretty much repeated my point for me. Did you not ever read what I wrote? Take two cards with no current playability, just pure nostalgia, a ten cent card, was sole for $480 like a month ago. If power were reprinted, what a number of ignotant collectors think is that it would cause their beta and unlimited P9 cards to plummet. Who here really thinks that reprinting Library of Alexandria would have a negative impact on the original AN printings? Modern Masters has shown that reprints of in-demand cards have raised the value by raising said demand. This isn't 1996. We are no longer in the middle of a comic book crash, sports card saturation crash, and Beanie Baby fad. The reserve list was a knee jerk reaction to a knee jerk reaction and a huge mistake.
You're trying to say well since a Shivan Dragon sold for $480 therefor a alpha dual should stay at $2000. Which is false. If age and collectability was the only driving force for alpha cards a Shivan Dragon should also be $2000 since they are of the same rarity and printed in the same numbers.
This is basic supply and demand, demand causes revised duals to go to hundreds of dollars, which makes alpha duals to go to thousands of dollars. More supply = less demand = prices go down INDEPENDENT of age and collect ability. So yes, prices on old playable cards will definitely go down due to more supply.
First of all, "more supply = less demand" makes no sense. Price is a function of supply and demand. Higher supply does not effect demand except in the most fringe of cases.
The reason a Beta Shivan Dragon is cheaper than a Beta dual is that demand for that Beta dragon is lower. Printing more duals doesn't decrease demand for Beta duals. It increases supply for duals in general. But increasing supply for duals in general only decreases the price of Beta duals if the reprint duals and Beta duals are substitute goods. You may be tempted to think that a Beta dual and a reprint dual are substitute goods because they have the same name, but they are absolutely not. The markets for a Beta dual and a revised dual are completely different just like the markets for a Beta Shivan Dragon and and a Revised Shivan Dragon are completely different. Reprinting duals could negatively affect Revised prices if the supply outpaces the increased demand due to wizard's support, but any negative effect on Betas would be negligible.
The price of beta duals directly reflect the price of revised duals. If revised duals are the same prices as a shivan dragon, beta duals will not fetch the price it does, which is not hard to see. This is extremely easy to prove: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Limited Edition Beta/Underground Sea#paper look at the price of the beta sea, and compare it to a revised sea. They follow the same trend, in fact try that with every dual from ABUR. As for reprints, any reprinting of cards needs to be done in a large enough scale to reduce demand(and price). Otherwise there's no point to reprinting them in the first place. People who can't play still can't play because of price and SCG + friends will likely be the only people that can reap the benefit.
Shenanigans. Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game. Price of duals and power are based both on collecatbiity and playablility, meaning they're in demand. Being in demand = price goes up = old printing of the cards's price go up because they're the pimp version of the cards that are already hard to get. Simple.
Think of alpha and beta cards as super foils. They go up with the price of the card meaning its very much tied to how expensive the non foil version of the card is.
You pretty much repeated my point for me. Did you not ever read what I wrote? Take two cards with no current playability, just pure nostalgia, a ten cent card, was sole for $480 like a month ago. If power were reprinted, what a number of ignotant collectors think is that it would cause their beta and unlimited P9 cards to plummet. Who here really thinks that reprinting Library of Alexandria would have a negative impact on the original AN printings? Modern Masters has shown that reprints of in-demand cards have raised the value by raising said demand. This isn't 1996. We are no longer in the middle of a comic book crash, sports card saturation crash, and Beanie Baby fad. The reserve list was a knee jerk reaction to a knee jerk reaction and a huge mistake.
You're trying to say well since a Shivan Dragon sold for $480 therefor a alpha dual should stay at $2000. Which is false. If age and collectability was the only driving force for alpha cards a Shivan Dragon should also be $2000 since they are of the same rarity and printed in the same numbers.
This is basic supply and demand, demand causes revised duals to go to hundreds of dollars, which makes alpha duals to go to thousands of dollars. More supply = less demand = prices go down INDEPENDENT of age and collect ability. So yes, prices on old playable cards will definitely go down due to more supply.
First of all, "more supply = less demand" makes no sense. Price is a function of supply and demand. Higher supply does not effect demand except in the most fringe of cases.
The reason a Beta Shivan Dragon is cheaper than a Beta dual is that demand for that Beta dragon is lower. Printing more duals doesn't decrease demand for Beta duals. It increases supply for duals in general. But increasing supply for duals in general only decreases the price of Beta duals if the reprint duals and Beta duals are substitute goods. You may be tempted to think that a Beta dual and a reprint dual are substitute goods because they have the same name, but they are absolutely not. The markets for a Beta dual and a revised dual are completely different just like the markets for a Beta Shivan Dragon and and a Revised Shivan Dragon are completely different. Reprinting duals could negatively affect Revised prices if the supply outpaces the increased demand due to wizard's support, but any negative effect on Betas would be negligible.
The price of beta duals directly reflect the price of revised duals. If revised duals are the same prices as a shivan dragon, beta duals will not fetch the price it does, which is not hard to see. This is extremely easy to prove: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Limited Edition Beta/Underground Sea#paper look at the price of the beta sea, and compare it to a revised sea. They follow the same trend, in fact try that with every dual from ABUR. As for reprints, any reprinting of cards needs to be done in a large enough scale to reduce demand(and price). Otherwise there's no point to reprinting them in the first place. People who can't play still can't play because of price and SCG + friends will likely be the only people that can reap the benefit.
Beta prices are not based on revised prices. A Beta Underground Sea is not more expensive than a Beta Shivan Dragon because a revised Underground Sea is more expensive than a Revised Shivan Dragon. The Beta Underground Sea is more expensive because there is more demand for the dual than the dragon. You're just seeing the same trend because (obviously) there is a higher demand for Revised Underground Seas than Revised Shivan Dragons. Correlation is not causation. It is merely that for obvious reasons, both demands are moving together. Saying that a ton of reprints would drop the price of Beta duals is like saying that flooding the car market with Nissans would drop the price of Ferraris. They may do the same thing, but the markets for each are completely different.
You pretty much repeated my point for me. Did you not ever read what I wrote? Take two cards with no current playability, just pure nostalgia, a ten cent card, was sole for $480 like a month ago. If power were reprinted, what a number of ignotant collectors think is that it would cause their beta and unlimited P9 cards to plummet. Who here really thinks that reprinting Library of Alexandria would have a negative impact on the original AN printings? Modern Masters has shown that reprints of in-demand cards have raised the value by raising said demand. This isn't 1996. We are no longer in the middle of a comic book crash, sports card saturation crash, and Beanie Baby fad. The reserve list was a knee jerk reaction to a knee jerk reaction and a huge mistake.
You're trying to say well since a Shivan Dragon sold for $480 therefor a alpha dual should stay at $2000. Which is false. If age and collectability was the only driving force for alpha cards a Shivan Dragon should also be $2000 since they are of the same rarity and printed in the same numbers.
This is basic supply and demand, demand causes revised duals to go to hundreds of dollars, which makes alpha duals to go to thousands of dollars. More supply = less demand = prices go down INDEPENDENT of age and collect ability. So yes, prices on old playable cards will definitely go down due to more supply.
First of all, "more supply = less demand" makes no sense. Price is a function of supply and demand. Higher supply does not effect demand except in the most fringe of cases.
The reason a Beta Shivan Dragon is cheaper than a Beta dual is that demand for that Beta dragon is lower. Printing more duals doesn't decrease demand for Beta duals. It increases supply for duals in general. But increasing supply for duals in general only decreases the price of Beta duals if the reprint duals and Beta duals are substitute goods. You may be tempted to think that a Beta dual and a reprint dual are substitute goods because they have the same name, but they are absolutely not. The markets for a Beta dual and a revised dual are completely different just like the markets for a Beta Shivan Dragon and and a Revised Shivan Dragon are completely different. Reprinting duals could negatively affect Revised prices if the supply outpaces the increased demand due to wizard's support, but any negative effect on Betas would be negligible.
The price of beta duals directly reflect the price of revised duals. If revised duals are the same prices as a shivan dragon, beta duals will not fetch the price it does, which is not hard to see. This is extremely easy to prove: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Limited Edition Beta/Underground Sea#paper look at the price of the beta sea, and compare it to a revised sea. They follow the same trend, in fact try that with every dual from ABUR. As for reprints, any reprinting of cards needs to be done in a large enough scale to reduce demand(and price). Otherwise there's no point to reprinting them in the first place. People who can't play still can't play because of price and SCG + friends will likely be the only people that can reap the benefit.
Beta prices are not based on revised prices. A Beta Underground Sea is not more expensive than a Beta Shivan Dragon because a revised Underground Sea is more expensive than a Revised Shivan Dragon. The Beta Underground Sea is more expensive because there is more demand for the dual than the dragon. You're just seeing the same trend because (obviously) there is a higher demand for Revised Underground Seas than Revised Shivan Dragons. Correlation is not causation. It is merely that for obvious reasons, both demands are moving together. Saying that a ton of reprints would drop the price of Beta duals is like saying that flooding the car market with Nissans would drop the price of Ferraris. They may do the same thing, but the markets for each are completely different.
I don't follow that analogy, it's more applicable to comparing shocks to duals than duals to old duals. A better one would be if Ferrari put out a car exactly the same as their most expensive car, mass produced it and sold it at 1/100the price. The only difference being that their year of production is different. Of course the demand for their original is going to drop, because it will no longer be "special/desirable" since everyone will have it with a very minor detail change.
I consider the same with duals. If duals were to be reprinted enmass like Shivan Dragons and the price dropped to Shivan Dragon price, the beta/alpha printings of the duals will without a doubt drop from the current 2k+ range. Simply because it's won't be the pimp version of an already expensive and sought after card. Remember the difference from revised to beta is round 5x the price, if the price of duals do drop to say in the $20/30 range, then the difference between beta and the rest will grow to around 50x the price. That premium in my opinion (and I think common sense) is not going to be a justifiable price for "pimping" out your deck, and will infact be far more than every other pimp card ever printed by far. (this is a bit of a exaggeration, I'm just trying to point out that old duals do follow the prices of reprints).
Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game.
I think since verdict got printed. I know that *** is played as a one of sometimes in a gifts package but outside of that I haven't really seen any outside of edh.
You're trying to say well since a Shivan Dragon sold for $480 therefor a alpha dual should stay at $2000. Which is false. If age and collectability was the only driving force for alpha cards a Shivan Dragon should also be $2000 since they are of the same rarity and printed in the same numbers.
This is basic supply and demand, demand causes revised duals to go to hundreds of dollars, which makes alpha duals to go to thousands of dollars. More supply = less demand = prices go down INDEPENDENT of age and collect ability. So yes, prices on old playable cards will definitely go down due to more supply.
First of all, "more supply = less demand" makes no sense. Price is a function of supply and demand. Higher supply does not effect demand except in the most fringe of cases.
The reason a Beta Shivan Dragon is cheaper than a Beta dual is that demand for that Beta dragon is lower. Printing more duals doesn't decrease demand for Beta duals. It increases supply for duals in general. But increasing supply for duals in general only decreases the price of Beta duals if the reprint duals and Beta duals are substitute goods. You may be tempted to think that a Beta dual and a reprint dual are substitute goods because they have the same name, but they are absolutely not. The markets for a Beta dual and a revised dual are completely different just like the markets for a Beta Shivan Dragon and and a Revised Shivan Dragon are completely different. Reprinting duals could negatively affect Revised prices if the supply outpaces the increased demand due to wizard's support, but any negative effect on Betas would be negligible.
The price of beta duals directly reflect the price of revised duals. If revised duals are the same prices as a shivan dragon, beta duals will not fetch the price it does, which is not hard to see. This is extremely easy to prove: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Limited Edition Beta/Underground Sea#paper look at the price of the beta sea, and compare it to a revised sea. They follow the same trend, in fact try that with every dual from ABUR. As for reprints, any reprinting of cards needs to be done in a large enough scale to reduce demand(and price). Otherwise there's no point to reprinting them in the first place. People who can't play still can't play because of price and SCG + friends will likely be the only people that can reap the benefit.
Beta prices are not based on revised prices. A Beta Underground Sea is not more expensive than a Beta Shivan Dragon because a revised Underground Sea is more expensive than a Revised Shivan Dragon. The Beta Underground Sea is more expensive because there is more demand for the dual than the dragon. You're just seeing the same trend because (obviously) there is a higher demand for Revised Underground Seas than Revised Shivan Dragons. Correlation is not causation. It is merely that for obvious reasons, both demands are moving together. Saying that a ton of reprints would drop the price of Beta duals is like saying that flooding the car market with Nissans would drop the price of Ferraris. They may do the same thing, but the markets for each are completely different.
I don't follow that analogy, it's more applicable to comparing shocks to duals than duals to old duals. A better one would be if Ferrari put out a car exactly the same as their most expensive car, mass produced it and sold it at 1/100the price. The only difference being that their year of production is different. Of course the demand for their original is going to drop, because it will no longer be "special/desirable" since everyone will have it with a very minor detail change.
I consider the same with duals. If duals were to be reprinted enmass like Shivan Dragons and the price dropped to Shivan Dragon price, the beta/alpha printings of the duals will without a doubt drop from the current 2k+ range. Simply because it's won't be the pimp version of an already expensive and sought after card. Remember the difference from revised to beta is round 5x the price, if the price of duals do drop to say in the $20/30 range, then the difference between beta and the rest will grow to around 50x the price. That premium in my opinion (and I think common sense) is not going to be a justifiable price for "pimping" out your deck, and will infact be far more than every other pimp card ever printed by far. (this is a bit of a exaggeration, I'm just trying to point out that old duals do follow the prices of reprints).
No. YOUR analogy doesn't work because with your Ferrari example, they're putting out the same exact car. Which a dual reprint is not doing.
You have to think about the market for Beta cards. Who is buying Underground Seas for 4-6000 dollars? That market is collectors and/or pimpers. They most assuredly would NOT see a reprint as a substitute good. It isn't the same thing at all. If having the same name were enough for the reprint and the alpha/beta version to be anywhere NEAR interchangeable, revised duals would have crashed alpha/beta a long time ago. You're saying 5x Revised price is reasonable for Beta, but a Beta Sea is currently TWENTY times the price of the revised version.
You have alpha/beta cards because you want THE pimp version of the card. This takes any substitute goods argument out of the picture. If duals are reprinted, the supply for pimp cards has not changed. The demand for pimp cards does not change. How does price change here?
Every version of a card has a supply and has a demand. Again, pimp duals and revised duals follow the same pattern because their demands follow similar patterns. But that doesn't mean there is some magical x5 multiplier. Revised Underground Sea is ~$300 because that is where Revised supply meets Revised demand. Beta Underground Sea is ~$6000 because that is where Beta supply meets Beta demand. There is no economic social planner looking at Revised Underground Sea and saying that the Beta should be 5 times the price. If a $20 Underground Sea came out (not that it would happen to begin with), no economic social planner is going to dictate that all Beta Underground Seas now cost $100, despite neither supply nor demand for it changing.
I read these forums everyday but never post, wanted to just comment on this thread because I've been a collector/player since the beginning. The reserved list had a purpose and still does, to protect consumer confidence. Back in those days things were so different, collecting was huge, company's all wanted to cash in on this new collecting craze. The problem was all things collectable were oversaturated into the market and of course said collected items crashed to the floor. Comics, baseball cards, beanie babies, those damn half dollar coin things.. Pogs? Lol. Wizards protected the original cards from this for consumer confidence and rightfully so. This rule is now outdated and needs updating, the reserved list needs to stay but changed. The original art stays on the reserved list along with black bordered cards. Anything reprinted from the list must be white bordered and new art. This was the original purpose of white border, it's ugly, but you could still play the game without breaking the bank. People will always want the originals due to their rarety/nostalgia/beauty/status quo. The people who want to play a part of the game restricted to so few now, can If this 20 year old rule would be updated.
Just to chime in on the car analogy, while not 100% transferable, there actually was a trend in the 1990's to "clone" classic cars. You can go out and buy a clone of a classic car today for a fraction of the price of the originals. These clones, reproductions, tributes, re-creations or whatever you want to call them had no impact on the value of the originals, yet the owners of these clones got to the enjoy the thrill own owning and driving what is effectively the same car.
As we have already discussed, it is all simple supply and demand. The supply of Alpha, Beta, unlimited and Revised dual lands cannot meet the demand, which causes the values to continuously skyrocket. Reprinting dual lands in a Vintage or Legacy Masters paper set would have a negative impact on revised dual lands for sure, as "nobody" wants white boarder duals. yes, as a nostalgic player, I have an attachment to revised duals. I also know people who love white boarder cards, but they are the outliers. The exceptions. Most players want black boarder cards. Players will clamor for the new prints, but that demand for original Alpha/Beta duels would actually increase as interest in duels would increase. I don't know what would happen to Unlimited Duals as unlimited cards have their own special appeal. An unlimited sea is worth roughly double that of a Revised Sea for some reason (Hint: supply/nostalgia).
Again, we can go back to Psionic Blast. Before it was reprinted in Time Spiral as a Time Shifted card, it was an uncommon in Alpha/Beta/Unlimited and had an asking price of around $15-$20. When it was reprinted, the Time Shifted version was worth $20+ and being standard legal again pushed the demand of the A/B/U versions into the $40+ range. However, because it wasn't any good in standard and was never used outside of a tier 2 eight-char deck, it eventually crashed back down to earth. Time shifted versions are only worth $1 (give or take), yet the A/B versions are worth $20-$30. The unlimited copies have crashed to around $5 each. The reality is that reprinting Psionic Blast had little to no effect on the original prints, and actually caused them to spike as interest in the card increased. Then, despite the access to black boarder classic frame versions of the card readily available at $1, people are still willing to buy and sell original versions for $20-$30 a pop.
Also, what better example of my point than basic lands? Basic lands are so cheap hat stores are known to just give them away at times to regular players/buyers if they need them for some deck. However, the full art Unglued, unhinged, and Zendikar basics are worth $2+, and Guru lands are worth hundreds of dollars each. The Arabian Nights Mountain is also worth $50+ currently. Despite the complete flood of basic lands on the market, the rare and collectable versions of basic lands can be worth a small fortune.
To argue that reprinting dual lands and power would have a negative impact on the Alpha and Beta prints is baseless. I am honestly not sure how much of an impact it would have on Unlimited copies, though history has shown that they are also quite collectable as well.
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"Whatever style you wish to play, be it fast and frenzied or slow and tactical, the surest way to defeat your opponent consistently is by dominating him or her in the war of card advantage." - Brian Wiseman, April 1996
You have alpha/beta cards because you want THE pimp version of the card. This takes any substitute goods argument out of the picture. If duals are reprinted, the supply for pimp cards has not changed. The demand for pimp cards does not change. How does price change here?
Nitpick but the demand for the pimp cards would likely rise a bit as more players become introduced to the possibility of playing with them. But yes, your statement is very accurate.
I read these forums everyday but never post, wanted to just comment on this thread because I've been a collector/player since the beginning. The reserved list had a purpose and still does, to protect consumer confidence. Back in those days things were so different, collecting was huge, company's all wanted to cash in on this new collecting craze. The problem was all things collectable were oversaturated into the market and of course said collected items crashed to the floor. Comics, baseball cards, beanie babies, those damn half dollar coin things.. Pogs? Lol. Wizards protected the original cards from this for consumer confidence and rightfully so. This rule is now outdated and needs updating, the reserved list needs to stay but changed. The original art stays on the reserved list along with black bordered cards. Anything reprinted from the list must be white bordered and new art. This was the original purpose of white border, it's ugly, but you could still play the game without breaking the bank. People will always want the originals due to their rarety/nostalgia/beauty/status quo. The people who want to play a part of the game restricted to so few now, can If this 20 year old rule would be updated.
This isn't a bad idea. It would give utility back to white bordered cards again. I kind of miss having the distinction of white and black borders. This was one reason I didn't think chronicles was that bad personally. I REALLY wanted some of those cards but didn't have ready access to them until chronicles. That satisfied me. I was happy thinking I can use these UNTIL I can manage to get the REAL ones.
White boarders are outdated. The difference between limited (A/B) and Unlimited were the boarders. With revised, there was a small change to the colors, as revised looks faded compared to Unlimited cards, and the illustrator information is aligned differently. Set symbols (with the exception of Chronicles - which is what caused this mess in the first place) allow you to differentiate between edition printings easily. Additionally, in terms of cards on the reserved list, the modern card frames also serve as an immediate visual cue indicating they are reprints. Finally, there already is new art for Vintage Masters. I know they never will, but I would love to see a paper print run of Vintage Masters.
For those who haven't seen them:
Heck, I would be happy with at least a new "collectors edition" set with an alternate card back, so long as they had black boarders on the face. Though I would obviously much rather have legal cards, I would at least like high quality WotC playing cards that I could put in a cube.
"Whatever style you wish to play, be it fast and frenzied or slow and tactical, the surest way to defeat your opponent consistently is by dominating him or her in the war of card advantage." - Brian Wiseman, April 1996
I don't see how my analogy doesn't work. The main function of a dual is playbility, with collectability as a second. The dual reprint fulfills their main function. So many a better anaology is if it was the same car except a different paint job?
As for wether the pimping market follows reprints. It's easy to test this also. Take a Delta foil and look at the trend after KTK and prints were announced. http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Onslaught:Foil/Polluted Delta#paper
You can see it has ups and downs, all the way till between m15 - KTK, where the reprints were announced where into went into a steady decline losing around 10-15% of it's value to this day.
I don't see how my analogy doesn't work. The main function of a dual is playbility, with collectability as a second. The dual reprint fulfills their main function. So many a better anaology is if it was the same car except a different paint job?
KTK and prints were announced. http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Onslaught:Foil/Polluted Delta#paper
You can see it has ups and downs, all the way till between m15 - KTK, where the reprints were announced where into went into a steady decline losing around 10-15% of it's value to this day.
(1) Another example of why you can't assume that correlation is causation. What you're actually seeing is a trend of dropping during the summer that happens with many Legacy staples. Every. Year.
By only looking at Polluted Deltas, you don't realize that what you actually are seeing the corrections of a gigantic price spike that happened a year ago. A ton of Legacy cards skyrocketed. But you can't just look at the correlation between two things and assume, hey, those Khans fetches really did a number on the price of Revised duals and Wasteland and Abrupt Decay and Show and Tell. You have to understand the factors of why the card changed in price. You didn't perform a test. You looked at two cards that were consistent with your argument but did not prove your argument.
(2) English foils aren't even the correct pimp to look at. Comparing Onslaught cards to Beta doesn't work. Onslaught never was and never will be anything like Beta pimp. Looking at English foils makes it even worse.
(3) The main function of a revised dual is playability. There is no way the "main" function of a Beta dual is playability. You're kidding yourself if you think that anyone would buy a card for $6000 when there is a $300 option that has the same "main" purpose. They're completely different products.
I don't see how my analogy doesn't work. The main function of a dual is playbility, with collectability as a second. The dual reprint fulfills their main function. So many a better anaology is if it was the same car except a different paint job?
KTK and prints were announced. http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Onslaught:Foil/Polluted Delta#paper
You can see it has ups and downs, all the way till between m15 - KTK, where the reprints were announced where into went into a steady decline losing around 10-15% of it's value to this day.
(1) Another example of why you can't assume that correlation is causation. What you're actually seeing is a trend of dropping during the summer that happens with many Legacy staples. Every. Year.
By only looking at Polluted Deltas, you don't realize that what you actually are seeing the corrections of a gigantic price spike that happened a year ago. A ton of Legacy cards skyrocketed. But you can't just look at the correlation between two things and assume, hey, those Khans fetches really did a number on the price of Revised duals and Wasteland and Abrupt Decay and Show and Tell. You have to understand the factors of why the card changed in price. You didn't perform a test. You looked at two cards that were consistent with your argument but did not prove your argument.
(2) English foils aren't even the correct pimp to look at. Comparing Onslaught cards to Beta doesn't work. Onslaught never was and never will be anything like Beta pimp. Looking at English foils makes it even worse.
(3) The main function of a revised dual is playability. There is no way the "main" function of a Beta dual is playability. You're kidding yourself if you think that anyone would buy a card for $6000 when there is a $300 option that has the same "main" purpose. They're completely different products.
Please, there was no spike in foiled fetches, it's pretty easy to see the price was up and down within a given margin, followed by a consistent decline since the announcement of reprint. Your "foil fetches only followed the price change of legacy in general" holds no water, because there was no spike in foil fetches so they should have stay consistant with no real price correction instead of a constant decline. There was a decline, because the pimp version of cards still followed the normal version, which dropped due to the reprint which is the point I'm trying to make. http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/onslaught/polluted-delta , http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/onslaught/flooded-strand TCGplayer shows this better as their price history goes back further than Apr 2014.
AS for your third point. The main function of ANY dual is playability. If the card wasn't playable or was not played, the price wouldn't be driven up as high as it is. The reason it's a $6000 card in beta is because it's a $300 cards in revised. The reason it's a $300 card in revised, is because it's playability. Once again, see beta Shivan Dragon. A card card just as collectible as a beta dual, printed in the same numbers and of the same age. It's $500 because of it's playability. You buy a beta dual to play it in your pimp legacy/vintage deck, not to put it in your binder. That's where the beta Shivan Dragon and beta Wrath of God sits.
I don't see how my analogy doesn't work. The main function of a dual is playbility, with collectability as a second. The dual reprint fulfills their main function. So many a better anaology is if it was the same car except a different paint job?
KTK and prints were announced. http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Onslaught:Foil/Polluted Delta#paper
You can see it has ups and downs, all the way till between m15 - KTK, where the reprints were announced where into went into a steady decline losing around 10-15% of it's value to this day.
(1) Another example of why you can't assume that correlation is causation. What you're actually seeing is a trend of dropping during the summer that happens with many Legacy staples. Every. Year.
By only looking at Polluted Deltas, you don't realize that what you actually are seeing the corrections of a gigantic price spike that happened a year ago. A ton of Legacy cards skyrocketed. But you can't just look at the correlation between two things and assume, hey, those Khans fetches really did a number on the price of Revised duals and Wasteland and Abrupt Decay and Show and Tell. You have to understand the factors of why the card changed in price. You didn't perform a test. You looked at two cards that were consistent with your argument but did not prove your argument.
(2) English foils aren't even the correct pimp to look at. Comparing Onslaught cards to Beta doesn't work. Onslaught never was and never will be anything like Beta pimp. Looking at English foils makes it even worse.
(3) The main function of a revised dual is playability. There is no way the "main" function of a Beta dual is playability. You're kidding yourself if you think that anyone would buy a card for $6000 when there is a $300 option that has the same "main" purpose. They're completely different products.
Please, there was no spike in foiled fetches, it's pretty easy to see the price was up and down within a given margin, followed by a consistent decline since the announcement of reprint. Your "foil fetches only followed the price change of legacy in general" holds no water, because there was no spike in foil fetches so they should have stay consistant with no real price correction instead of a constant decline.
That's a pretty bold claim to make considering your only graph with foils goes back to April 2014, after the spikes. I do think that foils went up around the same time, but I'll look for a graph that does go back farther than a year before I make definitive claims of a spike/lack of spike with absolutely no backing, and you should do the same.
Uhh. Aren't those are just a graph of non-foil fetches? That doesn't show anything. It's like saying that a reprint could hurt the price of revised duals. Everyone knows that.
As a side note, this entire Polluted Delta tangent is meaningless. Beta duals were printed in 1993 with a MAXIMUM of 3200 in existence (and we all know the real number is significantly less). Onslaught was printed in 2002 and although the print run is unknown, it's a no brainer that the amount of English (most pimpers don't care about anyways) Foil Polluted Deltas is a lot higher than the 3000 range. All that is to say that no version of Polluted Delta, a card from 2002, has ever had anywhere close to the pimp/collectibility of a Beta dual making them susceptible to substitute goods.
AS for your third point. The main function of ANY dual is playability. If the card wasn't playable or was not played, the price wouldn't be driven up as high as it is. The reason it's a $6000 card in beta is because it's a $300 cards in revised. The reason it's a $300 card in revised, is because it's playability. Once again, see beta Shivan Dragon. A card card just as collectible as a beta dual, printed in the same numbers and of the same age. It's $500 because of it's playability. You buy a beta dual to play it in your pimp legacy/vintage deck, not to put it in your binder. That's where the beta Shivan Dragon and beta Wrath of God sits.
Yeah, markets just don't work that way. In the case of non-substitutes, the price of a product A is not some multiplier of product B. The price of product A is based on the supply and demand of product A. Neither of which a reprint changes. I'll try again.
Aggregate Supply: how many Beta duals are sellers willing to sell at a given time at a given price point?
Aggregate Demand: how many Beta duals will buyers want to buy at a given time at given price points?
For the price of Beta duals to drop, one or both of those have to change.
You need either
a) Sellers to suddenly decide, hey, I like these duals as much and I'm willing to part with them for less money, or
b) Buyers to suddenly decide that they don't want to buy beta duals anymore at their current demand schedules.
Here's the thing about both group A and group B: neither will happen because if they saw reprinted duals as appropriate substitute goods, they would have seen Revised duals as appropriate substitutes at some time in the last twenty years. If Beta and Revised were substitute goods, we wouldn't be seeing this gigantic "multiplier" in the first place.
One need only look at the aforementioned Shivan Dragon. Revised and M2014 Shivan Dragons are substitute goods. 4th Edition and 8th edition Dragons are substitutable. 5th edition and freaking Beatdown are substitutable goods. Revised Shivan dragon is absolutely NOT a substitute good for Beta. There is no substitute good for any Beta card, except perhaps alpha or Foreign Black Border.
There are 2 graphs, the foil graph is under the normal graph. Hovering over the graph will show your the value of the foil at the time. So yes, there is price history on a website that makes actual sales. There was no spike in the foils.
First because there hasn't been a dual reprint, the only thing anyone can do is analyze past events that resemble what would happen and predict using that data. So far my data without a doubt suggests that, mass prints(in an amount that will effect the price of the "regular" version of the card) will also have a great effect on the pimp version of the card. This is proven (yes, proven) by the trend in fetches, which is the closest thing we have to a dual reprint because of the following factors:
1. The old printing price is fairly high pre-reprint (due to limited supply, onslaught boosters are ~15$ purely on their value)
2. It's a multiple of in many decks
3. A pimp version exist that is many times the regular price
4. It saw a mass reprint that greatly lowered the price of the regular card
5. The new printing has new art (which I assume new dual will have too)
So far what you've been giving me is basically "that's not how it happens because people won't see it this that or other way". Which is essentially on the same line as "cause I said so".
As for shivan dragon, back to my point again. If it's as you say, ever other printing is but a substitute and has no correlation to the price of the beta one, whose price is purely on age and collectability. Why oh why do they not cost the same as a U. Sea? A card that saw the same number of prints in beta and is of the same age?
My answer, by being a card that is highly in demand card adds a massive premium on the card, a premium that is multiplied many times in it's older, pimpy-er forms. Therefore, if the card is not highly in demand any more and say, was $1 like a Shivan Dragon, there will no longer be a premium on the card, which translates to a less expensive older, pimpy-er form.
If we're going by your explanation, if Wizards printed a (legal to play) U.Sea for every player on Earth tomorrow and the revised priced dropped to $1, a beta would still fetch $6000. Which, in my opinion, is not the case.
There are 2 graphs, the foil graph is under the normal graph. Hovering over the graph will show your the value of the foil at the time. So yes, there is price history on a website that makes actual sales. There was no spike in the foils.
First because there hasn't been a dual reprint, the only thing anyone can do is analyze past events that resemble what would happen and predict using that data. So far my data without a doubt suggests that, mass prints(in an amount that will effect the price of the "regular" version of the card) will also have a great effect on the pimp version of the card. This is proven (yes, proven) by the trend in fetches, which is the closest thing we have to a dual reprint because of the following factors:
1. The old printing price is fairly high pre-reprint (due to limited supply, onslaught boosters are ~15$ purely on their value)
2. It's a multiple of in many decks
3. A pimp version exist that is many times the regular price
4. It saw a mass reprint that greatly lowered the price of the regular card
5. The new printing has new art (which I assume new dual will have too)
So far what you've been giving me is basically "that's not how it happens because people won't see it this that or other way". Which is essentially on the same line as "cause I said so".
As for shivan dragon, back to my point again. If it's as you say, ever other printing is but a substitute and has no correlation to the price of the beta one, whose price is purely on age and collectability. Why oh why do they not cost the same as a U. Sea? A card that saw the same number of prints in beta and is of the same age?
My answer, by being a card that is highly in demand card adds a massive premium on the card, a premium that is multiplied many times in it's older, pimpy-er forms. Therefore, if the card is not highly in demand any more and say, was $1 like a Shivan Dragon, there will no longer be a premium on the card, which translates to a less expensive older, pimpy-er form.
If we're going by your explanation, if Wizards printed a (legal to play) U.Sea for every player on Earth tomorrow and the revised priced dropped to $1, a beta would still fetch $6000. Which, in my opinion, is not the case.
One can argue, that both shivan dragon and Wrath of God has a lot of reprints, because they didn´t stop at revised. That might actually show you what reprints do to the prices.
For this discussion I am assuming that the reprint will be big enough to greatly impact the price of duals. Otherwise there would be no point as the price barrier would still exist.
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Even if Goyf was banned in modern, it wouldn't take a massive hit. I cannot possibly see it crashing much lower than back to $150 or $125 at the most. Future shifted cards were pretty much a disguised test for the production, distribution and consumer reaction to mythic rares before there were mythic rares. Even if Goyf were banned, it is still a card in high demand to legacy and vintage players who would be more than happy to buy up copies from modern players. it has an established place in Magic's history and even if you don't play vintage or legacy, and you don't know anyone near you who does, doesn't mean that there aren't a lot of vintage and legacy players out there, along with non-sanctioned proxy tournaments where you pay $30+ for a chance to win expensive cards.
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A vintage and/or legacy masters set would not have a significant negative impact on the classic Alpha/Beta/Unlimited/Revised and original printings of classic cards. Just as i posted some 40+ pages ago, you have to look no further than Shivan Dragon and Wrath of God to prove my point. The current printing of Shivan Dragon is worth around ten to fifty cents each. A couple of beta Shivan Dragons recently closed on ebay between $130 & $480.
The same is true about Wrath of God. Several copies are worth around $5. The 10th edition is about $8, and the Beta has an asking price of about $320. How much would those beta copies be worth if they had not been printed 15+ times? They aren't good in any legal format. Power and dual lands are format staples in that they are legal in, cause their prices to be driven up exponentially higher than just the raw collector's value. It is my personal opinion that Modern Masters 1 proved and Modern masters 2015 will continue to prove that limited reprints will actually raise the value of in-demand cards. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if we saw Liliana of the Veil reprinted in MM2015 and it's price shoot up yet again from $80 (average) to over $100. Please quote me on that and tell me I was wrong if that doesn't happen (if she doesn't get reprinted, that doesn't count - though you could do the same about Karn and Goyf.) I was talking about this in persona and online back in 2011 long before Modern Masters that they needed to do a set like that and they finally did. They need to do the same for vintage/legacy. They have for MODO, and my understanding is that it is a huge success.
A Vintage Masters Black Lotus is roughly $140. A digital copy of black lotus is $140. Let that sink in. Online, Tarmogoyf is only worth $60+, and I don't know the distribution numbers, but the point stands that if a digital copy, which are always significantly cheaper than the paper versions have a Vintage Master copy of black lotus at $140, how much do you think a paper Vintage master copy would be worth? I can almost guarantee you it would have a market price of $500+ at release and would stabilize between $400-$600 based on trends and distribution. In 2007 when I was really into collecting and the details of the market, a beta Black lotus was roughly $2,000. Now it is closer to $7,000+ and the only thing that has changed is time. It didn't suddenly become more useful. It is just 8 years older. That's it.
Shenanigans. Shivan Dragon and ***'s price are based 100 percent on their collecatbility, because they're barely playable in todays game. Price of duals and power are based both on collecatbiity and playablility, meaning they're in demand. Being in demand = price goes up = old printing of the cards's price go up because they're the pimp version of the cards that are already hard to get. Simple.
Think of alpha and beta cards as super foils. They go up with the price of the card meaning its very much tied to how expensive the non foil version of the card is.
You know both EDH and Cube play RL cards, right?
Considering that many of the advocates in fact already have collections, right? Also, how is what you're talking about not simply based on emotion?
Goyf is played in every format he's legal.
No, it's a game. Arcelor Mittal stock is an investment.
EDIT: this goes beyond any Reserved List discussion too. Buy Magic cards, open Magic card packs, keep collections of Magic cards in binders and play Magic card games with Magic cards, but please please please do not 'invest' in a game.
BWR THE ARISTAHCRATZ!
I've seen him played in gro and some other lists, though I'll admit he's less popular in vintage.
Sure it's a investment. In fact if you invested in magic(hell for some eternal cards, even a year ago) from the get go, you would be doing extremely well right now.
You pretty much repeated my point for me. Did you not ever read what I wrote? Take two cards with no current playability, just pure nostalgia, a ten cent card, was sole for $480 like a month ago. If power were reprinted, what a number of ignotant collectors think is that it would cause their beta and unlimited P9 cards to plummet. Who here really thinks that reprinting Library of Alexandria would have a negative impact on the original AN printings? Modern Masters has shown that reprints of in-demand cards have raised the value by raising said demand. This isn't 1996. We are no longer in the middle of a comic book crash, sports card saturation crash, and Beanie Baby fad. The reserve list was a knee jerk reaction to a knee jerk reaction and a huge mistake.
I can't find he link in my history, but I was reading old MaRo articles last week and I copy and pasted some of his quotes to my Facebook on this very subject, so I will do the same here:
Here is Aaron Forsythe talking about Modern and he hints at the reserve list a few times, linked with a time stamp:
https://youtu.be/C-r-wfodlro?t=7m51s
WotC heads, prominent members of the community, and owners of the largest gaming stores in the world have all commented on this subject and at one point came together to secretly talk about the reserve list and its potential removal and allegedly, all came to the same conclusion - they want to get rid of it, but (as MaRo said in the above quote) WotC and Hasbro feel they have a promise to uphold. They are between a rock and a hard place.
It really is a mute point until someone can find the solution to the problem. in the mean time, if anyone wants to say they shouldn't remove the Reserved list because of fear of what reprints will do to the secondary value of the cards... they are 100% demonstrably wrong. There is no argument to keep the reserve list outside of upholding the promise they made. They agree and it is the only thing preventing them from going back on it.
You're trying to say well since a Shivan Dragon sold for $480 therefor a alpha dual should stay at $2000. Which is false. If age and collectability was the only driving force for alpha cards a Shivan Dragon should also be $2000 since they are of the same rarity and printed in the same numbers.
This is basic supply and demand, demand causes revised duals to go to hundreds of dollars, which makes alpha duals to go to thousands of dollars. More supply = less demand = prices go down INDEPENDENT of age and collect ability. So yes, prices on old playable cards will definitely go down due to more supply.
The reason a Beta Shivan Dragon is cheaper than a Beta dual is that demand for that Beta dragon is lower. Printing more duals doesn't decrease demand for Beta duals. It increases supply for duals in general. But increasing supply for duals in general only decreases the price of Beta duals if the reprint duals and Beta duals are substitute goods. You may be tempted to think that a Beta dual and a reprint dual are substitute goods because they have the same name, but they are absolutely not. The markets for a Beta dual and a revised dual are completely different just like the markets for a Beta Shivan Dragon and and a Revised Shivan Dragon are completely different. Reprinting duals could negatively affect Revised prices if the supply outpaces the increased demand due to wizard's support, but any negative effect on Betas would be negligible.
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The price of beta duals directly reflect the price of revised duals. If revised duals are the same prices as a shivan dragon, beta duals will not fetch the price it does, which is not hard to see. This is extremely easy to prove: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Limited Edition Beta/Underground Sea#paper look at the price of the beta sea, and compare it to a revised sea. They follow the same trend, in fact try that with every dual from ABUR. As for reprints, any reprinting of cards needs to be done in a large enough scale to reduce demand(and price). Otherwise there's no point to reprinting them in the first place. People who can't play still can't play because of price and SCG + friends will likely be the only people that can reap the benefit.
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I don't follow that analogy, it's more applicable to comparing shocks to duals than duals to old duals. A better one would be if Ferrari put out a car exactly the same as their most expensive car, mass produced it and sold it at 1/100the price. The only difference being that their year of production is different. Of course the demand for their original is going to drop, because it will no longer be "special/desirable" since everyone will have it with a very minor detail change.
I consider the same with duals. If duals were to be reprinted enmass like Shivan Dragons and the price dropped to Shivan Dragon price, the beta/alpha printings of the duals will without a doubt drop from the current 2k+ range. Simply because it's won't be the pimp version of an already expensive and sought after card. Remember the difference from revised to beta is round 5x the price, if the price of duals do drop to say in the $20/30 range, then the difference between beta and the rest will grow to around 50x the price. That premium in my opinion (and I think common sense) is not going to be a justifiable price for "pimping" out your deck, and will infact be far more than every other pimp card ever printed by far. (this is a bit of a exaggeration, I'm just trying to point out that old duals do follow the prices of reprints).
I think since verdict got printed. I know that *** is played as a one of sometimes in a gifts package but outside of that I haven't really seen any outside of edh.
You have to think about the market for Beta cards. Who is buying Underground Seas for 4-6000 dollars? That market is collectors and/or pimpers. They most assuredly would NOT see a reprint as a substitute good. It isn't the same thing at all. If having the same name were enough for the reprint and the alpha/beta version to be anywhere NEAR interchangeable, revised duals would have crashed alpha/beta a long time ago. You're saying 5x Revised price is reasonable for Beta, but a Beta Sea is currently TWENTY times the price of the revised version.
You have alpha/beta cards because you want THE pimp version of the card. This takes any substitute goods argument out of the picture. If duals are reprinted, the supply for pimp cards has not changed. The demand for pimp cards does not change. How does price change here?
Every version of a card has a supply and has a demand. Again, pimp duals and revised duals follow the same pattern because their demands follow similar patterns. But that doesn't mean there is some magical x5 multiplier. Revised Underground Sea is ~$300 because that is where Revised supply meets Revised demand. Beta Underground Sea is ~$6000 because that is where Beta supply meets Beta demand. There is no economic social planner looking at Revised Underground Sea and saying that the Beta should be 5 times the price. If a $20 Underground Sea came out (not that it would happen to begin with), no economic social planner is going to dictate that all Beta Underground Seas now cost $100, despite neither supply nor demand for it changing.
As we have already discussed, it is all simple supply and demand. The supply of Alpha, Beta, unlimited and Revised dual lands cannot meet the demand, which causes the values to continuously skyrocket. Reprinting dual lands in a Vintage or Legacy Masters paper set would have a negative impact on revised dual lands for sure, as "nobody" wants white boarder duals. yes, as a nostalgic player, I have an attachment to revised duals. I also know people who love white boarder cards, but they are the outliers. The exceptions. Most players want black boarder cards. Players will clamor for the new prints, but that demand for original Alpha/Beta duels would actually increase as interest in duels would increase. I don't know what would happen to Unlimited Duals as unlimited cards have their own special appeal. An unlimited sea is worth roughly double that of a Revised Sea for some reason (Hint: supply/nostalgia).
Again, we can go back to Psionic Blast. Before it was reprinted in Time Spiral as a Time Shifted card, it was an uncommon in Alpha/Beta/Unlimited and had an asking price of around $15-$20. When it was reprinted, the Time Shifted version was worth $20+ and being standard legal again pushed the demand of the A/B/U versions into the $40+ range. However, because it wasn't any good in standard and was never used outside of a tier 2 eight-char deck, it eventually crashed back down to earth. Time shifted versions are only worth $1 (give or take), yet the A/B versions are worth $20-$30. The unlimited copies have crashed to around $5 each. The reality is that reprinting Psionic Blast had little to no effect on the original prints, and actually caused them to spike as interest in the card increased. Then, despite the access to black boarder classic frame versions of the card readily available at $1, people are still willing to buy and sell original versions for $20-$30 a pop.
Also, what better example of my point than basic lands? Basic lands are so cheap hat stores are known to just give them away at times to regular players/buyers if they need them for some deck. However, the full art Unglued, unhinged, and Zendikar basics are worth $2+, and Guru lands are worth hundreds of dollars each. The Arabian Nights Mountain is also worth $50+ currently. Despite the complete flood of basic lands on the market, the rare and collectable versions of basic lands can be worth a small fortune.
To argue that reprinting dual lands and power would have a negative impact on the Alpha and Beta prints is baseless. I am honestly not sure how much of an impact it would have on Unlimited copies, though history has shown that they are also quite collectable as well.
Nitpick but the demand for the pimp cards would likely rise a bit as more players become introduced to the possibility of playing with them. But yes, your statement is very accurate.
This isn't a bad idea. It would give utility back to white bordered cards again. I kind of miss having the distinction of white and black borders. This was one reason I didn't think chronicles was that bad personally. I REALLY wanted some of those cards but didn't have ready access to them until chronicles. That satisfied me. I was happy thinking I can use these UNTIL I can manage to get the REAL ones.
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Heck, I would be happy with at least a new "collectors edition" set with an alternate card back, so long as they had black boarders on the face. Though I would obviously much rather have legal cards, I would at least like high quality WotC playing cards that I could put in a cube.
I don't see how my analogy doesn't work. The main function of a dual is playbility, with collectability as a second. The dual reprint fulfills their main function. So many a better anaology is if it was the same car except a different paint job?
As for wether the pimping market follows reprints. It's easy to test this also. Take a Delta foil and look at the trend after KTK and prints were announced. http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Onslaught:Foil/Polluted Delta#paper
You can see it has ups and downs, all the way till between m15 - KTK, where the reprints were announced where into went into a steady decline losing around 10-15% of it's value to this day.
Foil strands had even more of a decline http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Onslaught:Foil/Flooded Strand#paper though it does look like it's slowly trending up, probably due to the success of miracles.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Underground Sea#paper
Look at how those foil Polluted Deltas...uhh...made Underground Sea decline in price.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Tundra#paper
And also Tundra.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Volcanic Island#paper
and err...Volcanic Island.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Tropical Island#paper
and Tropical Island.
in fact...Every.Single.Dual.
Bayou.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Badlands#paper
Badlands as well.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Scrubland#paper
Scrubland.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Savannah#paper
too Savannah.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Taiga#paper
And Taiga.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Revised Edition/Plateau#paper
Even Plateau.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Tempest/Wasteland#paper
Wasteland
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Return to Ravnica/Abrupt Decay#paper
Abrupt Decay
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Return to Ravnica/Deathrite Shaman#paper
Deathrite Shaman
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Urzas Saga/Show and Tell#paper
Show and Tell
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Alliances/Force of Will#paper
Force of Will
By only looking at Polluted Deltas, you don't realize that what you actually are seeing the corrections of a gigantic price spike that happened a year ago. A ton of Legacy cards skyrocketed. But you can't just look at the correlation between two things and assume, hey, those Khans fetches really did a number on the price of Revised duals and Wasteland and Abrupt Decay and Show and Tell. You have to understand the factors of why the card changed in price. You didn't perform a test. You looked at two cards that were consistent with your argument but did not prove your argument.
(2) English foils aren't even the correct pimp to look at. Comparing Onslaught cards to Beta doesn't work. Onslaught never was and never will be anything like Beta pimp. Looking at English foils makes it even worse.
(3) The main function of a revised dual is playability. There is no way the "main" function of a Beta dual is playability. You're kidding yourself if you think that anyone would buy a card for $6000 when there is a $300 option that has the same "main" purpose. They're completely different products.
Please, there was no spike in foiled fetches, it's pretty easy to see the price was up and down within a given margin, followed by a consistent decline since the announcement of reprint. Your "foil fetches only followed the price change of legacy in general" holds no water, because there was no spike in foil fetches so they should have stay consistant with no real price correction instead of a constant decline. There was a decline, because the pimp version of cards still followed the normal version, which dropped due to the reprint which is the point I'm trying to make. http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/onslaught/polluted-delta , http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/onslaught/flooded-strand TCGplayer shows this better as their price history goes back further than Apr 2014.
AS for your third point. The main function of ANY dual is playability. If the card wasn't playable or was not played, the price wouldn't be driven up as high as it is. The reason it's a $6000 card in beta is because it's a $300 cards in revised. The reason it's a $300 card in revised, is because it's playability. Once again, see beta Shivan Dragon. A card card just as collectible as a beta dual, printed in the same numbers and of the same age. It's $500 because of it's playability. You buy a beta dual to play it in your pimp legacy/vintage deck, not to put it in your binder. That's where the beta Shivan Dragon and beta Wrath of God sits.
As a side note, this entire Polluted Delta tangent is meaningless. Beta duals were printed in 1993 with a MAXIMUM of 3200 in existence (and we all know the real number is significantly less). Onslaught was printed in 2002 and although the print run is unknown, it's a no brainer that the amount of English (most pimpers don't care about anyways) Foil Polluted Deltas is a lot higher than the 3000 range. All that is to say that no version of Polluted Delta, a card from 2002, has ever had anywhere close to the pimp/collectibility of a Beta dual making them susceptible to substitute goods. Yeah, markets just don't work that way. In the case of non-substitutes, the price of a product A is not some multiplier of product B. The price of product A is based on the supply and demand of product A. Neither of which a reprint changes. I'll try again.
Aggregate Supply: how many Beta duals are sellers willing to sell at a given time at a given price point?
Aggregate Demand: how many Beta duals will buyers want to buy at a given time at given price points?
For the price of Beta duals to drop, one or both of those have to change.
You need either
a) Sellers to suddenly decide, hey, I like these duals as much and I'm willing to part with them for less money, or
b) Buyers to suddenly decide that they don't want to buy beta duals anymore at their current demand schedules.
Here's the thing about both group A and group B: neither will happen because if they saw reprinted duals as appropriate substitute goods, they would have seen Revised duals as appropriate substitutes at some time in the last twenty years. If Beta and Revised were substitute goods, we wouldn't be seeing this gigantic "multiplier" in the first place.
One need only look at the aforementioned Shivan Dragon. Revised and M2014 Shivan Dragons are substitute goods. 4th Edition and 8th edition Dragons are substitutable. 5th edition and freaking Beatdown are substitutable goods. Revised Shivan dragon is absolutely NOT a substitute good for Beta. There is no substitute good for any Beta card, except perhaps alpha or Foreign Black Border.
There are 2 graphs, the foil graph is under the normal graph. Hovering over the graph will show your the value of the foil at the time. So yes, there is price history on a website that makes actual sales. There was no spike in the foils.
First because there hasn't been a dual reprint, the only thing anyone can do is analyze past events that resemble what would happen and predict using that data. So far my data without a doubt suggests that, mass prints(in an amount that will effect the price of the "regular" version of the card) will also have a great effect on the pimp version of the card. This is proven (yes, proven) by the trend in fetches, which is the closest thing we have to a dual reprint because of the following factors:
1. The old printing price is fairly high pre-reprint (due to limited supply, onslaught boosters are ~15$ purely on their value)
2. It's a multiple of in many decks
3. A pimp version exist that is many times the regular price
4. It saw a mass reprint that greatly lowered the price of the regular card
5. The new printing has new art (which I assume new dual will have too)
So far what you've been giving me is basically "that's not how it happens because people won't see it this that or other way". Which is essentially on the same line as "cause I said so".
As for shivan dragon, back to my point again. If it's as you say, ever other printing is but a substitute and has no correlation to the price of the beta one, whose price is purely on age and collectability. Why oh why do they not cost the same as a U. Sea? A card that saw the same number of prints in beta and is of the same age?
My answer, by being a card that is highly in demand card adds a massive premium on the card, a premium that is multiplied many times in it's older, pimpy-er forms. Therefore, if the card is not highly in demand any more and say, was $1 like a Shivan Dragon, there will no longer be a premium on the card, which translates to a less expensive older, pimpy-er form.
If we're going by your explanation, if Wizards printed a (legal to play) U.Sea for every player on Earth tomorrow and the revised priced dropped to $1, a beta would still fetch $6000. Which, in my opinion, is not the case.
For this discussion I am assuming that the reprint will be big enough to greatly impact the price of duals. Otherwise there would be no point as the price barrier would still exist.