I think future sight looks like the closest thing to killing magic they've ever come up with. don't get me wrong from a playerspoint of veiw it looks very interesting with some potentially very powerful cards. but to a new player it is simply too many abilities that are virtually impossible to learn. magic as is is not the easiest game in the world to pick up and they are progresivly making it harder. in the few years i've been playing they have introduced +/- 27 (that i could find) new abilities and thats b4 FS which looks to have more than it's fair share. while theres a lot to be said for variety i feel it is cutting out potential new players.
I don't know that that's true, so long as they all have reminder text. Anything written on a card can be a mechanic, but that's never a problem. Keywords help players in many ways without causing any harm.
Consider one of the Future Sight mechanics - Gravestorm. It's only on one card, and it has reminder text. How is that different than figuring out what Blaze does?
Also, assuming new players play casually with older players, they're potentially exposed to all mechanics at once. With two exceptions - Phasing, Banding - there's very little confusion.
For the most part, once you understand the Core Set mechanics, you're in the clear, as other mechanics have reminder text. Interestingly enough, that's precisely what the Core Set exists for.
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My anecdotal evidence disagrees with yours! EXPLAIN THAT!
It's probably wishful thinking to hope that the game will last another 15 years, because as stated before, 15 years is a long time. But right now, Magic is definitely popular and alive in many areas. I live in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, about as close to a middle-of-nowhere city as you can get. We almost always see FNM turnouts of 30+ players, each and every week (exceptions might be pre-releases or PTQs in Des Moines). We have regulars, and we have guests coming from other cities from time to time. Our store, as far as I know, is remaining profitable. This Magic takes time to build and will take time to crumble away. I don't see Magic going under for at least another 6 years, if it ever does.
Besides, our Pro Tour system handsomely rewards the best and brightest who seek to constantly become better. As long as this system remains strong, Magic will have a base upon which players will strive to win and support the game.
I think future sight looks like the closest thing to killing magic they've ever come up with. don't get me wrong from a playerspoint of veiw it looks very interesting with some potentially very powerful cards. but to a new player it is simply too many abilities that are virtually impossible to learn. magic as is is not the easiest game in the world to pick up and they are progresivly making it harder. in the few years i've been playing they have introduced +/- 27 (that i could find) new abilities and thats b4 FS which looks to have more than it's fair share. while theres a lot to be said for variety i feel it is cutting out potential new players.
Completly agreed with you, this kind of a deck is too hard to new players get in, besides all this Time Spiral set has too much information coming from everywhere, destroying all possible Flavor.
Ravnica was sucessful for all variants it had creating decks, and so much Flavor creating Guilds with colors, it stopped people looking just for "what next set will bring up for [color]" and begun with " how's gonna be Azoriu's cards?, "Who's his leader?", "What is their ability?".
Now we are back on life looking for all traditional color cards, with no Flavor behind.
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"Are you a wizard? Where're your magics?" Dimir Follower
Completly agreed with you, this kind of a deck is too hard to new players get in,
Well, this is why all the expansion blocks like TS and it's 2 subsets are considered Expert Level. Beginner Level and Advanced (core sets) is where all new players should start. Once they feel comfortable playing, then they should get into the Expert level sets.
yea, TS did really F up the color wheel, abilities, etc...but this set seems like it was really for all the old school ppl (like me) to really get back into the game (incase they left for a bit of time)
The entire block is really great. Even more of a success in my opinion than Ravnica. I stopped playing back in RAV since it wasn't really appealing to me. It reminded me of Invasion, with a twist.
On topic: I think MTG will actually get killed off by another CCG made by Wizards. Eventually, the block ideas will just repeat every 2-4 years, like some of the abilities do, and ppl will want something fresh; outside of the dominaria/mtg multiverse. Maybe in the SciFi genre. ah hell. I think i just gave MaRo a block idea.:xd:
Wraith's got a point, you're encouraged to start by using the Core Game Pack, then once you're comfortable with the base mechanic you move up to theme decks, and then on to deck creater and booster packs not the other way 'round. After all, that's how I got started.
That's how I got started too. way back in 6th edition. btw, who's Wraith? lol, no worries, it's apparently common for ppl to mispell my name on every site i use this name.
MTG could always just get in a really slowing slump of sale too. Probably won't be something you could see right away, but more of a chart with say 20 years in it. you might see a steady decline of sales at some point, and it would really make them work to pick up the cash draw.
I have played Magic since it came out in Beta. From day one I remember people saying "this won't last long, it's going to die etc etc" low and behold it has and will stay around for a very long time.
One thing I have noticed is that all roads in gaming lead back to magic. If you started with pokemon, yu gi oh, highlander, star wars, dnd, hell i met a person that played jyhad (when it was jyhad not vampire) and hadnt played a card game since the other day in card store learning how to play magic and drafting within 45 min of learning the game.
As long as there our social outcasts like most of us (aka nerds) we will all flock to something.
Well, I think they shouldn't have made the new 'tribal' cards work or whatever. That, and I don't think they hould have gave the "When deals damage to a creature, destroy it" kind of cards the ability. Just makes it more confusing. Just print it like it always has been. They're not saving any space, they will have to put reminder text on cards otherwise, i'll forget. I say, they're just too many abilities, and I say that as a player who picked the game up one day and learned. I understand a lot of the abilities, but I honestly think it's getting ridiculous.
Oh, and how does D&D lead back to Magic? Check the dates, D&D was around much earlier than magic dude.
Oh, and how does D&D lead back to Magic? Check the dates, D&D was around much earlier than magic dude.
Well that's not at all what he was saying, dude. Maybe you didn't actually read the post (or any of them)? What he said was that if you are some other kind of gamer, there's a good possibility that one day you'll come (back) to Magic.
Anyway, I believe that Future Sight is a clear sign that they're beginning to run out of ideas. However, I think Wizards will hang in there for a long time. Ravnica block in its day was the best selling block of all time and I wouldn't be surprised if Time Spiral has beaten that. The level of organized play and the solidity of these past few sets over all formats shows just how well they understand this game now, so I'm sure they'll find a way to make it work for at least a few more years
How does Future Sight show they're running out of ideas? I'd think that if anything pointed to that, it'd be the Great Designer Search.
But really, there's still a huge amount of unexplored space. The custom card section of this very forum is filled with excellent ideas and is getting more all the time. Magic is far from running dry for new cards and new set ideas.
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My anecdotal evidence disagrees with yours! EXPLAIN THAT!
I have played Magic since it came out in Beta. From day one I remember people saying "this won't last long, it's going to die etc etc" low and behold it has and will stay around for a very long time.
One thing I have noticed is that all roads in gaming lead back to magic. If you started with pokemon, yu gi oh, highlander, star wars, dnd, hell i met a person that played jyhad (when it was jyhad not vampire) and hadnt played a card game since the other day in card store learning how to play magic and drafting within 45 min of learning the game.
As long as there our social outcasts like most of us (aka nerds) we will all flock to something.
That is what I was saying. And yes, I read the post. The bolded is saying that all roads lead to magic, saying it is the source.
I also agree that future sight is a sign of running out of new ideas. I don't mind playing old mechanics, I believe too many is the bane of a good game, I actually would like to play old sets, it's just that many stores don't have the cards. New ideas aren't requireed, just a new twist on old ideas.
There has been some concern from a few hobby stores and tournament directors in my area (Mid-West) that general tournament attendance is down and slowly declinning. This has caused me to speculate a little bit about economic theory and what an old financial professor told me, "There will come a time when an item for mass sale meets or neers its saturation quota." (The point where an item is no longer consumed.) This is generally for re-usable items, the idea is once you have it you do not need it anymore thus you will not buy anymore of those items.
To note to date we have seen Beanie Babies bust, Pokemon bust, Dot-Com's bust, parachute pants bust... I know each and everything noted so far had thier indiviual issues as to why they ran into a bust erra. Also note that each and everything noted is still around but at a much lower cost or resale value than before the bust occured.
Far be it for me to speculate this but I have slowly been noticing a general trend in non-Major cities as well as in some Mid-west major cities a decline in attendance. It seems the one big event for magic every so often is the pre-releases, those have been steady. I do speculate that means there is a healthy market out there.
But something still does not feel right. Busts occur as a constant trend because of the fact that an item has issues with its purchaser. Magic has not entered its bust stage yet nor does it appear to be getting close to its bust stage, do not disregard this possibility because busts occur unexpectedly. These are the issues I notice for magic:
1. You will eventually need a room or library totally dedicated to Magic the Gathering to keep your collection if you are a 'one of every' card collector. (Yes I know these people are rare nowadays but this statement is true for them. Also notice that ebay has so much junk bulk cards for sale... thats because they are running out of space, some not all.)
2. Magic Online is slowly putting a strain on 'Physical' Magic. Right now it's hardly noticable but slowly over time it WILL be an issue. (How? Ease of getting a player which is what can discourage those that pick up the game or are fans of the game and have no play group around. Also there are much more benefits to having an online colection than physical.) This may take some time but within 10 years this will catch up into becoming a noticable issue as computers and internet decreases in price and raise in availability.
3. The influx of 'new players' keeps the game going... if more new players tend to go with Magic Online (in the neer future) because technology shows the ease of owning one's collection online and the ability to play it while waiting in a grocery store line on your new 4'x6' I-Phone (not made yet) than 'physical' Magic may see its eventual decline. (Answer this, can you play MODO on a blackberry... if not... it will eventually! Afterall we do have wireless internet laptops... whats to stop the prices from being mainstream affordable, every year laptops at X-mas time drop by lot$!.)
I would like to open this discussion to the possibilities on your ideas. Please think things through before you post. I am looking for theories about how the bust will occur for physical magic or both if you have an interesting take on things. Will magic leave... no... will magic online bust... no... will "physical" magic take a bullet someday. YES. When? (My take is this... 9-12 years from now it will be considered an 'endangered species.')
I share many of your concerns. I've always been a tournament player. Back in the day when I begun playing, the usual Friday attendance was around 20, sometimes 15, sometimes even 25. Today, we barely manage 8 for a legal tournament. Granted, new tcg's arise every day, but I always thought MTG would easily weather it out.
Turns out it's simple supply and demand, those who know economics will understand where I'm going with this. MTG was a new product when it was released, not only was it new, but it was the "best form" of a new product called "complete novelty". Then it went through the standard product cycle: 1) the first phase - introduction of a new product. This went pretty well for MTG cards since they became an instant hit. This was followed by
2) the second phase - growth. No need to get into detail here, we all know how it became the world's leading TCG.
3) the third phase is tricky, production and supply are on a very high level, but the challengers start to surface. These were many in the last couple of years, WoW being the latest and took out a chunk of Magic players in my area.
Usually, this is followed by the decline of the product and its extinction. Since WOTC is obviously trying to keep their product afloat they must do something of the following to stay ahead of the competition: make the product cheaper (not likely), make it more appealing (this they did: you make the card, previews, Core set voting...), refresh the product (new frames, timeshifts, multiple rares/pack), change routine (inserting a fourth expansion each year...) and modifying the product (magic online).
As you can see, they know very well what they are doing. It also shows that MTG might be in a delicate situation right now.
The presence of computers in most homes makes playing MTG easier, makes keeping collections easier and also finding available players at every time of day. The problem is that computers alienate people. There are still many players out there who play paper cards, but as far as I see it, their number is dwindling a bit lately. I sincerely hope that MTG online is not the future of Magic and that people will still get together 10 years from now and enjoy a game without monitors and virtual 100$ cards.
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3. The influx of 'new players' keeps the game going... if more new players tend to go with Magic Online (in the neer future) because technology shows the ease of owning one's collection online and the ability to play it while waiting in a grocery store line on your new 4'x6' I-Phone (not made yet) than 'physical' Magic may see its eventual decline. (Answer this, can you play MODO on a blackberry... if not... it will eventually! Afterall we do have wireless internet laptops... whats to stop the prices from being mainstream affordable, every year laptops at X-mas time drop by lot$!.)
I don't think portable Magic Online is in our future for one reason: the size of a the screen on any portable device is far too small to keep track of anything; your hand, in play permanents, the stack--they'd all be unreadable. The 4"x6" in your example (at least, what I assume your example should have been; 4'x6' is equivalent to a 90" television) is less than 2 physical cards worth of space. Imagine playing a whole game with just that.
Could it simply be interest in a block that is leading to the lower numbers? I know I'm not the only one who found Time Spiral boring after Ravnica, and if the issue is widespread, that can easily explain the lower number of players. Lorwyn may drag more people in, or a future set may do the same.
I'd love it if WOTC's policies in recent years lead to a decline in popularity for Magic, though.
No CCG has ever taken over Magic I see no reason why it should happen now.
Pokemon was the first to trump its sales too bad that didn't last long.
Then it was Yu-Gi-Oh! yeah it had better sales for a short while.
Fact is Magic has always taken back that player base and keeps adding to it. Magic is the chess of the CCG world and it will always have a special place in millions of gamers hearts.
Crap on some scale Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh! helped magic in they bring in younger gamers. That then grow tired of the simplicity and move on to a real CCG like Magic or similar ones.
Online Magic will continue to be strong but physical magic is the best by far. Nothing is more exhilarating as far as card games go to play against a real player in person. Not to mention the problem of a small screen on portable magic like said above.
I just don't go anymore because ravnica has made type2 way too expensive for me to play. Who has $200 laying around to spend on just lands? Not me. I still play limited though.
We can try the hard facts: Google Trends for Magic, the Gathering. and here's a comparison with Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh. There is a noticeable decline, and we even "lose" against two "dead" games (I know they're not just TCGs but the comparison is still useful).
It seems it has really been declining. Of course, there'll always be the hardcore fans - at least I hope when Magic bites the bullet, they don't ruin the game for the hardcore players by making some uber-powerful set or other nonsense.
Are we sure they are just talking CCG though Yu-gi-oh and pokemon both have tv shows not to mention more video games.
I think that might be why they have such a higher trend.
The biggest problem might be lack of knowledge about the game. WotC doesn't advertise it at all, so the only way to learn about it is through word of mouth. Where are the action figures? The TV shows?
I see MTG as strong as ever. Yes FNM is down a bit but as you mention this is partly due to MODO. But ask why else MODO is gaining in popularity? Gas Prices. I can play on MODO or spend $10 in gas just to drive 30 minutes each way to play FNM. With other less cost probative options, some players are choosing to limit their expenses and play less cardboard, except when it counts. This years Memphis Regional had almost as many players as the previous two years combined and the past PTQ Extended season had almost every tourney setting two year highs in attendance. Grand Prix Dallas and Montreal both had 700 + players. Magic is a game always in flux and as long as Gas Barons are in the White House running our economy into the ground, things will be tight and wise players will chose to spent their time, money and resources wisely. Yes MTG is strong and nowhere near a bust point anytime soon. Of course that is all just my opinion.
Back at the bar, when you thought we were getting all palsy-walsy, I was actually flipping through that sorry mind you call an organizer looking for dirt! You know what we call THAT? MIND-TAKING, BABY! ACCEPT NO SUBSTITUTES!
We can try the hard facts: Google Trends for Magic, the Gathering. And here's a comparison with Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh. There is a noticeable decline, and we even "lose" against two "dead" games (I know they're not just TCGs but the comparison is still useful).
Of course, there'll always be the hardcore fans - at least I hope when Magic bites the bullet, they don't ruin the game for the hardcore players by making some uber-powerful set or other nonsense.
On the other hand, if I replace "Magic the Gathering" with "Magic" in the Google Trends, we got a lot more, but I doubt that is a consequence of the TCG. I don't discount the possibility, though.
There could be any number of explanations as to why those graphs trend downwards for each CCG. As noted above, both Yu-Gi-Oh and Pokemon are more than just CCG's, and the trend could have much more to do with toys, TV shows, games, etc. Second, the decline of all 3 over the same timeline might mean that CCG's as a game genre are declining in popularity. Magic has such a large base that a declining CCG market will probably not bring Magic down with it. Third, people might search Google less these days because sites like Salvation, SCG, and Brainbust (now TCGplayer) have been mainstays for years now, so most players never search anything Magic related on a search engine like Google. Lastly, as Mistwalker noted, most things go in cycles, and Magic might just be in a downward cycle right now.
I do have some of the concerns shared by the OP, but I don't every see Magic going away any time soon, physical or otherwise. I think the comparison to chess if very apt, and I'm sure Chess goes through downturns where lots of players leave for awhile, but the game overall still stays around.
The biggest problem might be lack of knowledge about the game. WotC doesn't advertise it at all, so the only way to learn about it is through word of mouth. Where are the action figures? The TV shows?
If they make a TV show or action figure i will quit. I WILL quit. Nuff said.
Could it simply be interest in a block that is leading to the lower numbers? I know I'm not the only one who found Time Spiral boring after Ravnica, and if the issue is widespread, that can easily explain the lower number of players. Lorwyn may drag more people in, or a future set may do the same.
I'd love it if WOTC's policies in recent years lead to a decline in popularity for Magic, though.
I think that is actually completely the problem. There was a HUGE draw during the Ravinca block. The fact that something that looked kinda like a dual land was in the format again was huge. Timespiral got some good looks early on when we saw things like Akroma and Tormod's Crypt coming back too, but then we noticed, that most of the rest of the block wasnt great by comparison. Look at the majority of decks out there and you'll see they're more like Rav decks with a TS/9th splash in them.
The other problem is that they basically have to print broken cards or nearly broken cards to get peoples attention these days. If its a goblin that isnt ringleader, lackey, or piledriver, its not good enough. A counterspell that doesnt cost 1U, a white instant that costs W that isnt swords to plowshares. Distress for example is an amazingly balanced card, BB, look at their hand, pick a non-land, make it go away. But its neither duress nor hymn to tourach, so people will say its not good. Its hard to then hurt your product in the long run just to print stuff to sell sets. I think we'll see some of it though, Timespiral block was basically nothing more than a hype block, and hopefully, we showed WoTC that they need to deliver on their hype too.
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EDH Decks:
UWMerfolk (Sygg, River Guide) B Vampires (Anowon the Ruin Sage) BRU Zombies! (Lord of Tresserhorn) WUBRG Allies (Karona, False God) W Soldiers (Darien, King of Kjeldor)
Truth is, MTG has become a game for die hards like us. It has been around so long that the "wow" factor is gone. But do not fear, as long as there is a die hard fanbase as large as the global one, the game will still be in production. Besides Magic has something that no other game has, a Pro Tour. Seriously, a global Pro Tour for a card game is pretty special. I have a feeling Magic won't be dead for a long long time.
If they make a TV show or action figure i will quit. I WILL quit. Nuff said.
They already made action figures.
But to address the main issue, G0-DRAW raised all these concerns that are entirely based on "hobby store and tournament directors in his area" mentioning that tournament attendance had slowly declined. I don't think there's any reason at all to think that Magic is on the decline. The Google trends don't necessarily speak of sales or interest. Perhaps the Magic community knows where to go to get it's information and the search is no longer necessary. Wizards.com and Sally are the only stops I ever need to make for Magic on the web. But greater than that is the fact that Ravnica was financially the most sucessful block in Magic's history. From the amount of product I've seen floating around stores and the discussion on this board alone, I would say that Time Spiral has done just as well.
Basically, what's the fear here? Where's the evidence that Magic's in trouble? I personally don't see it.
Consider one of the Future Sight mechanics - Gravestorm. It's only on one card, and it has reminder text. How is that different than figuring out what Blaze does?
Also, assuming new players play casually with older players, they're potentially exposed to all mechanics at once. With two exceptions - Phasing, Banding - there's very little confusion.
For the most part, once you understand the Core Set mechanics, you're in the clear, as other mechanics have reminder text. Interestingly enough, that's precisely what the Core Set exists for.
Besides, our Pro Tour system handsomely rewards the best and brightest who seek to constantly become better. As long as this system remains strong, Magic will have a base upon which players will strive to win and support the game.
Completly agreed with you, this kind of a deck is too hard to new players get in, besides all this Time Spiral set has too much information coming from everywhere, destroying all possible Flavor.
Ravnica was sucessful for all variants it had creating decks, and so much Flavor creating Guilds with colors, it stopped people looking just for "what next set will bring up for [color]" and begun with " how's gonna be Azoriu's cards?, "Who's his leader?", "What is their ability?".
Now we are back on life looking for all traditional color cards, with no Flavor behind.
Well, this is why all the expansion blocks like TS and it's 2 subsets are considered Expert Level. Beginner Level and Advanced (core sets) is where all new players should start. Once they feel comfortable playing, then they should get into the Expert level sets.
yea, TS did really F up the color wheel, abilities, etc...but this set seems like it was really for all the old school ppl (like me) to really get back into the game (incase they left for a bit of time)
The entire block is really great. Even more of a success in my opinion than Ravnica. I stopped playing back in RAV since it wasn't really appealing to me. It reminded me of Invasion, with a twist.
On topic: I think MTG will actually get killed off by another CCG made by Wizards. Eventually, the block ideas will just repeat every 2-4 years, like some of the abilities do, and ppl will want something fresh; outside of the dominaria/mtg multiverse. Maybe in the SciFi genre. ah hell. I think i just gave MaRo a block idea.:xd:
That's how I got started too. way back in 6th edition. btw, who's Wraith? lol, no worries, it's apparently common for ppl to mispell my name on every site i use this name.
MTG could always just get in a really slowing slump of sale too. Probably won't be something you could see right away, but more of a chart with say 20 years in it. you might see a steady decline of sales at some point, and it would really make them work to pick up the cash draw.
One thing I have noticed is that all roads in gaming lead back to magic. If you started with pokemon, yu gi oh, highlander, star wars, dnd, hell i met a person that played jyhad (when it was jyhad not vampire) and hadnt played a card game since the other day in card store learning how to play magic and drafting within 45 min of learning the game.
As long as there our social outcasts like most of us (aka nerds) we will all flock to something.
Oh, and how does D&D lead back to Magic? Check the dates, D&D was around much earlier than magic dude.
Well that's not at all what he was saying, dude. Maybe you didn't actually read the post (or any of them)? What he said was that if you are some other kind of gamer, there's a good possibility that one day you'll come (back) to Magic.
Anyway, I believe that Future Sight is a clear sign that they're beginning to run out of ideas. However, I think Wizards will hang in there for a long time. Ravnica block in its day was the best selling block of all time and I wouldn't be surprised if Time Spiral has beaten that. The level of organized play and the solidity of these past few sets over all formats shows just how well they understand this game now, so I'm sure they'll find a way to make it work for at least a few more years
RRR Buy some of my art! Prints! RRR
But really, there's still a huge amount of unexplored space. The custom card section of this very forum is filled with excellent ideas and is getting more all the time. Magic is far from running dry for new cards and new set ideas.
That is what I was saying. And yes, I read the post. The bolded is saying that all roads lead to magic, saying it is the source.
I also agree that future sight is a sign of running out of new ideas. I don't mind playing old mechanics, I believe too many is the bane of a good game, I actually would like to play old sets, it's just that many stores don't have the cards. New ideas aren't requireed, just a new twist on old ideas.
To note to date we have seen Beanie Babies bust, Pokemon bust, Dot-Com's bust, parachute pants bust... I know each and everything noted so far had thier indiviual issues as to why they ran into a bust erra. Also note that each and everything noted is still around but at a much lower cost or resale value than before the bust occured.
Far be it for me to speculate this but I have slowly been noticing a general trend in non-Major cities as well as in some Mid-west major cities a decline in attendance. It seems the one big event for magic every so often is the pre-releases, those have been steady. I do speculate that means there is a healthy market out there.
But something still does not feel right. Busts occur as a constant trend because of the fact that an item has issues with its purchaser. Magic has not entered its bust stage yet nor does it appear to be getting close to its bust stage, do not disregard this possibility because busts occur unexpectedly. These are the issues I notice for magic:
1. You will eventually need a room or library totally dedicated to Magic the Gathering to keep your collection if you are a 'one of every' card collector. (Yes I know these people are rare nowadays but this statement is true for them. Also notice that ebay has so much junk bulk cards for sale... thats because they are running out of space, some not all.)
2. Magic Online is slowly putting a strain on 'Physical' Magic. Right now it's hardly noticable but slowly over time it WILL be an issue. (How? Ease of getting a player which is what can discourage those that pick up the game or are fans of the game and have no play group around. Also there are much more benefits to having an online colection than physical.) This may take some time but within 10 years this will catch up into becoming a noticable issue as computers and internet decreases in price and raise in availability.
3. The influx of 'new players' keeps the game going... if more new players tend to go with Magic Online (in the neer future) because technology shows the ease of owning one's collection online and the ability to play it while waiting in a grocery store line on your new 4'x6' I-Phone (not made yet) than 'physical' Magic may see its eventual decline. (Answer this, can you play MODO on a blackberry... if not... it will eventually! Afterall we do have wireless internet laptops... whats to stop the prices from being mainstream affordable, every year laptops at X-mas time drop by lot$!.)
I would like to open this discussion to the possibilities on your ideas. Please think things through before you post. I am looking for theories about how the bust will occur for physical magic or both if you have an interesting take on things. Will magic leave... no... will magic online bust... no... will "physical" magic take a bullet someday. YES. When? (My take is this... 9-12 years from now it will be considered an 'endangered species.')
Turns out it's simple supply and demand, those who know economics will understand where I'm going with this. MTG was a new product when it was released, not only was it new, but it was the "best form" of a new product called "complete novelty". Then it went through the standard product cycle: 1) the first phase - introduction of a new product. This went pretty well for MTG cards since they became an instant hit. This was followed by
2) the second phase - growth. No need to get into detail here, we all know how it became the world's leading TCG.
3) the third phase is tricky, production and supply are on a very high level, but the challengers start to surface. These were many in the last couple of years, WoW being the latest and took out a chunk of Magic players in my area.
Usually, this is followed by the decline of the product and its extinction. Since WOTC is obviously trying to keep their product afloat they must do something of the following to stay ahead of the competition: make the product cheaper (not likely), make it more appealing (this they did: you make the card, previews, Core set voting...), refresh the product (new frames, timeshifts, multiple rares/pack), change routine (inserting a fourth expansion each year...) and modifying the product (magic online).
As you can see, they know very well what they are doing. It also shows that MTG might be in a delicate situation right now.
The presence of computers in most homes makes playing MTG easier, makes keeping collections easier and also finding available players at every time of day. The problem is that computers alienate people. There are still many players out there who play paper cards, but as far as I see it, their number is dwindling a bit lately. I sincerely hope that MTG online is not the future of Magic and that people will still get together 10 years from now and enjoy a game without monitors and virtual 100$ cards.
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I don't think portable Magic Online is in our future for one reason: the size of a the screen on any portable device is far too small to keep track of anything; your hand, in play permanents, the stack--they'd all be unreadable. The 4"x6" in your example (at least, what I assume your example should have been; 4'x6' is equivalent to a 90" television) is less than 2 physical cards worth of space. Imagine playing a whole game with just that.
I'd love it if WOTC's policies in recent years lead to a decline in popularity for Magic, though.
Pokemon was the first to trump its sales too bad that didn't last long.
Then it was Yu-Gi-Oh! yeah it had better sales for a short while.
Fact is Magic has always taken back that player base and keeps adding to it. Magic is the chess of the CCG world and it will always have a special place in millions of gamers hearts.
Crap on some scale Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh! helped magic in they bring in younger gamers. That then grow tired of the simplicity and move on to a real CCG like Magic or similar ones.
Online Magic will continue to be strong but physical magic is the best by far. Nothing is more exhilarating as far as card games go to play against a real player in person. Not to mention the problem of a small screen on portable magic like said above.
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Are we sure they are just talking CCG though Yu-gi-oh and pokemon both have tv shows not to mention more video games.
I think that might be why they have such a higher trend.
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There could be any number of explanations as to why those graphs trend downwards for each CCG. As noted above, both Yu-Gi-Oh and Pokemon are more than just CCG's, and the trend could have much more to do with toys, TV shows, games, etc. Second, the decline of all 3 over the same timeline might mean that CCG's as a game genre are declining in popularity. Magic has such a large base that a declining CCG market will probably not bring Magic down with it. Third, people might search Google less these days because sites like Salvation, SCG, and Brainbust (now TCGplayer) have been mainstays for years now, so most players never search anything Magic related on a search engine like Google. Lastly, as Mistwalker noted, most things go in cycles, and Magic might just be in a downward cycle right now.
I do have some of the concerns shared by the OP, but I don't every see Magic going away any time soon, physical or otherwise. I think the comparison to chess if very apt, and I'm sure Chess goes through downturns where lots of players leave for awhile, but the game overall still stays around.
If they make a TV show or action figure i will quit. I WILL quit. Nuff said.
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I think that is actually completely the problem. There was a HUGE draw during the Ravinca block. The fact that something that looked kinda like a dual land was in the format again was huge. Timespiral got some good looks early on when we saw things like Akroma and Tormod's Crypt coming back too, but then we noticed, that most of the rest of the block wasnt great by comparison. Look at the majority of decks out there and you'll see they're more like Rav decks with a TS/9th splash in them.
The other problem is that they basically have to print broken cards or nearly broken cards to get peoples attention these days. If its a goblin that isnt ringleader, lackey, or piledriver, its not good enough. A counterspell that doesnt cost 1U, a white instant that costs W that isnt swords to plowshares. Distress for example is an amazingly balanced card, BB, look at their hand, pick a non-land, make it go away. But its neither duress nor hymn to tourach, so people will say its not good. Its hard to then hurt your product in the long run just to print stuff to sell sets. I think we'll see some of it though, Timespiral block was basically nothing more than a hype block, and hopefully, we showed WoTC that they need to deliver on their hype too.
UWMerfolk (Sygg, River Guide)
B Vampires (Anowon the Ruin Sage)
BRU Zombies! (Lord of Tresserhorn)
WUBRG Allies (Karona, False God)
W Soldiers (Darien, King of Kjeldor)
They already made action figures.
But to address the main issue, G0-DRAW raised all these concerns that are entirely based on "hobby store and tournament directors in his area" mentioning that tournament attendance had slowly declined. I don't think there's any reason at all to think that Magic is on the decline. The Google trends don't necessarily speak of sales or interest. Perhaps the Magic community knows where to go to get it's information and the search is no longer necessary. Wizards.com and Sally are the only stops I ever need to make for Magic on the web. But greater than that is the fact that Ravnica was financially the most sucessful block in Magic's history. From the amount of product I've seen floating around stores and the discussion on this board alone, I would say that Time Spiral has done just as well.
Basically, what's the fear here? Where's the evidence that Magic's in trouble? I personally don't see it.
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