Although it is impossible to put a monetary value on criminal interest, the Gambino Crime family is the richest, most prominent, and certainly the most powerful criminal organization in the United States today. Worth hundreds of millions of dollars, the family has a criminal workforce of at least eight-hundred men, and its empire ranges from every borough of New York City to the streets of Atlantic City and Las Vegas, and from the heroin plants of Sicily and Asia, to the stolen car outlets in Kuwait. In his reign from 1957-1976, Carlo Gambino took a second-string crime family and built it into the Mafia’s jewel in the crown, far wealthier than any criminal organization in the United States ever has been and ever will be, and will always be unless significant actions are taken to put an end to its total domination.
Currently in 1990, the Family is no less prevalent than it was decades ago, and here, in one small neighborhood on the streets of New York City, the citizens have rallied together for change. Unaware who is working for the Family, the citizens have arranged daily meetings to determine who the victims and villains of their heinous crimes are, but are cautious because liars are around every corner. Every day, by majority vote, one individual will breathe his last breath as the noose around his neck tightens, and the floor beneath him collapses. The town has agreed this is the only way to bring about an end to the torment and pain caused by the Family’s reign of terror, and thus, everyone is attending these meetings; the townspeople would rather die fighting for their rights as opposed to dying destitute in a cardboard box in the alleyway next to the place they once called home. Anyone who does not attend these meetings will be found and killed, and thus, the Family knows they cannot escape the wrath of the town, but must survive the meetings, day after day, until they control the majority vote. Even if just one of them is alive by the time it is all over, that will be enough for the Gambino Crime Family’s reign to continue on forevermore.
Players Alive: Emo_Pinata sandsoft blue Murphy Pale Mage HKKID
Those No Longer Living: Edghyatt - Tevante Brack, Ex-Mafia Conspirator (vanilla) -Modkilled Day 1 creampuffeater - Tanya Urbaniec, Prostitute (vanilla) - Lynched Day 1 Gubjub KirdKitty - Frank DeCicco, The Underboss (goon) - Lynched Day 2 KeyofDestiny - Samuel Guinness, Emergency Room Surgeon (doctor) - Never Seen Again Night 2 Baenre - Jason Zhang, Mafia Victim (vanilla) - Bullet Between the Eyes Night 2 Kpaca goatrevolt - Oswald Morrison, Bookie (vanilla) - Lynched Day 3 Xyre- Dale McQuades, Carwash Owner (vanilla) - Ignition Rigged Night 3 CropCircles -The Teflon Don, John Joseph Gotti, Jr, the boss of bosses (untargettable) - Gave Up and Lynched Without a Fight Day 4 loran16 - Allison Shapiro, Jewelry Store Owner (1-shot vig) - Shot Pointblank Night 4
Rules (Stolen from Stormblind, stolen from CropCircles, stolen from carrion pigeons, who stole them from loran16, who then stole them from SorryGuy, who retrieved them courteously from Xyre, who jacked them from Jobie, who stole them from Puzzle, but Puzzel stole them from Crippled_Fist, who stole them from Ljustus, who stole them from carrion pigeons, who copyrighted them from CropCircles, who first pirated them from Puzzle, who got them in a private message from Halo_Freak):
1. Bold your votes and unvotes please, this makes it easier for us. They should look like this: Vote loran16 2. If you are unvoting, I request that you write Unvote loran16 rather than just Unvote as this makes the vote counts easier and more accurate. 3. Any votes or unvotes not in bold will not be counted. 4. Do not communicate at night or day unless your role PM says otherwise. 5. Do not quote PM's or you will be modkilled. You can discuss the flavor and paraphrase it in your own words, but do not quote me. 6. Unvote before casting a new vote. Failure to unvote may result in the vote not being counted. 7. You may vote No lynch, and a majority of these votes will end the day without a death. 8. Please do not edit or delete your posts no matter how stupid a mistake you made. This will get you modkilled. This is your only warning. 9. Once you’re dead, you’re dead, so stop posting please. A single ‘bah’ post is permissible. 10. Even after you are dead, please refrain from discussing the game or your role with anyone, even other players who have also been eliminated. If you have any questions about this rule, please ask. 11. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 72-hour period, please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Otherwise, you may be prodded or replaced. 12. If you have a night choice to make, it is due by the posted deadline. I will not wait for you – if you do not submit a choice to me, tough! No choice will be made. You will receive a reminder one day before the deadline if you haven’t submitted your choice. Night will not end before the deadline to give the Gambino Crime Family time to talk. 13. Lynches will require a simple majority of votes. Once a player has reached the necessary majority, his pleas are useless and any attempts to unvote will go unheeded. 14. If you are requesting a mod prod or vote count, please bold you request so that we can see it more clearly. 15. In order to keep this game moving, everyone is expected to post at least once every two to three days and if you don't, you may be replaced or modkilled. WITHOUT WARNING, whatever your side. 16. The Town Win Condition is: When the entirety of the Gambino Crime Family has been eliminated, it will be immediately evident their reign of terror has ended. 17. HAVE FUN 18. Lastly and most importantly. Respect us and the rest of the players; I hope I do not have to modkill anyone.
GAME SPECIFIC RULES: 1. In order to keep the peace in the town's daily meetings, if I find you have received an infraction or warning for flaming, or feel your post is worthy of it, I will replace or modkill you depending on the severity. As part of the daily meetings, all citizens must remain calm and emotionally stable if they would like to continue living.
2. If I find a player to be purposely disruptive to the gameplay as a whole by attempting to sabatoge either the game in its entirety or another player, you will find yourself replaced or modkilled and potentially nominated for blacklisting from further mafia games. The town is trying to eliminate the vile scum in an organized fashion, and any blatant actions that can be seen as directly sabotaging these efforts will be punished by the penalty of death. If you cannot handle yourself in a reasonable fashion, the town will dispose of your useless body.
About a paragraph of flavor detailing your backstory, your life, whatever else I felt like including. Depending on whether or not your character is based on a real life person depends on how long this paragraph will be. Anyone based on real life had their character name changed, and there is no person here whose story occurred in 1990. Many of the people are inspired from people alive decades ago when the mafia first came to New York or from people currently alive. The mafia are real people, but for the record, the timeline is not correct, and I didn't really care because it's awesome how it is. As you can see, I am giving out all this information because games are always much more exciting when people get lynched based on behavior and acting scummy than something stupid in regards to Role PM information.
Alignment: Town Abilities: Vanilla Win Condition: When the entirety of the Gambino Crime Family has been eliminated, it will be immediately evident their reign of terror has ended.
It must be said: I never jack anything from anyone. I merely relieve them of their services to the individuals in question and repurpose them to a higher calling in my direction.
The day has dawned, and starting at 6 a.m., one by one, the twelve citizens pass through the metal detector and into the meeting room they will stay in until the day has ended and someone has been lynched. It is essentially Twelve Angry Men brought to real life, but instead of deciding the fate of a young child, the twelve angry men are deciding the fates of themselves. It is unknown who will make it out alive, and if the townspeople will come out victorious or if they will crumble under the almighty power of the Family. Thus, upon entering the room, there is no going back to life as it once was; no one is allowed to leave the room until sunset under the penalty of death. Each man's fate rests in his own hands, but as long as his team wins, even if he died, he can rest in peace knowing he will be eternally victorious.
Day One has started. With 12 alive, it is 7 to lynch.
Almost immediately, a loud thud is heard and panic ensues amongst many of the people in the meeting room.
"It couldn't possibly have been a gun," a voice yells.
All twelve people are alright, for the most part. However, it appears sandsoft blue was trying to flush the toilet with his foot, when his foot slipped and went into the toilet. After missing a shoe, being soaking wet, and jamming the only toilet, sandsoft blue walks back into the main room and quietly takes his seat. Clearly he is embarassed, as he should be, because he successfully broke the toilet before the day even started, not to mention, he smells pretty awful.
loran16
Xyre
goatrevolt
sandsoft blue
Cropcircles
creampuffeater
On the simple basis that I am a noob and that the group consists of 6 noobs and 6 experienced players.
It stands to reason that Some One would not want his mafia game to be ruined by some noobish players giving themselves away as mafia by acting scummy as noobs tend to act. Thus I propose there is at least one Mafia member within the 6 experienced players and the possibility of a Mafia member within the noob section.
Normally the odds of hitting a Mafia member within the first day is only: 1/11= 9% chance.
If I go with my gut and pursue the experienced players as having at least one Mafia member within their ranks then suddenly my guess is raised to: 1/6= 17% chance.
The more information I gather based on everyone else's actions will allow me to raise that percentage, especially if we make it to day 2. I feel perfectly fine in this accusation in that the Mafia will actually be more inclined to destroy the noobs before the experienced players in this manner. For any experienced player that is lynched or murdered only increases the odds of the Mafia being discovered.
Thus I hope the other experienced players will come to this conclusion and see that there is a 1/5 chance(20%) for them of lynching a Mafia player. They can clearly remove themselves from the list and thus have 5 suspects to choose from hence the 1/5 shot of getting it right.
This may be a strategic fally on my part coming out this early to say everything as I am sure the mafia as well as the noobs will target me for lynching or death by night. This will be ok in the long run because I will be protecting the experienced players who will then be able to discover the most likely Mafia players.
If however I am not targeted and the rest of the players follow my logic. Then we can systematically target the experienced players in an attempt to have them lynched. Each time we lynch though we will get that much closer to hitting the mafia.
Should the Mafia target the experienced players as I have mentioned then we will get ever closer. For example if we lynch an experienced player with no result then follow up the next day to find another experienced player killed. Well then we have only 4 experienced players left. That gives the rest of the groups a 25% chance for determining the correct Mafia player.
This will also help our remaining experienced players because then they will have a 33% chance of determing who of the three other remaining experienced players are of the mafia. Combine that with there insight and possible roles gives the town a high chance of removing one of the Mafia.
I have said quite a bit so far and would like to conclude my opening statements. My primary goal is to provide the experienced players with the tools necessary to removing the Mafia. At the same time I seek to dissuade the Mafia from attacking our experienced players who will be far more insightful in fishing out scummy activity. Unfortunately for me, my opening statement may be construed as a gambit that the Mafia will jump on claiming as scummy activity. So by providing my insight and starting strategy I have also painted quite a large target on myself.
If this gets me lynched then so be it as long as the rest of you catch the Mafia. My only purpose is to see them dead for what they have done to me! If I die by making them sweat and shining light on a high chance of hitting them then fine. I don't like it but at least my experienced players will still be alive in the town. They are the ones I want to vote for the other experienced players. They have the highest chance of getting the Mafia. IF I die I am only one noob townie to go down.
Whatever the outcome our chances of lynching the Mafia increases with the fewer people we have. This is why I am taking such a big risk this early in the game. Now let's open the discussion with people's views on what I have said and for whom I am about to vote.
Vote Creampuffeater
Reasoning: Xyre psuedo posted as did Sandsoft blue. This would be a random vote with only a 17% chance of being correct. As of this post I have only seen sandsoft blue post with a random vote and a FoS. I also did not want to provide the Mafia a chance to bandwagon a vote by choosing Goatrevolt. Another reason for avoiding goatrevolt is due to the potential bandwagon effect. I want to see peoples responses before I provide anyone the chance to bandwagon.
I was told today that this kid on my team called 911 twice this morning and hung up both times. They called back and his dad answered. The reason the kid called 911? He got an erection and didn't know what to do. I wish I was making this up.
Are you seriously advocating that we random lynch all the best analysists in the game, just because they're good at it? Gawdzooks! If you weren't joking in that last post, then this vote just became serious.
I was told today that this kid on my team called 911 twice this morning and hung up both times. They called back and his dad answered. The reason the kid called 911? He got an erection and didn't know what to do. I wish I was making this up.
It's a joke. A few years back Loran flipped scum for half a million games consecutive games. As a result, people started saying that on day 1 it's a wise move to "Lynch All Lorans" because he's probably scum :p.
Statistically he's no more likely to be scum than anyone else, but Lynch All Cream Puff Eaters just doesn't have the same ring to it.
I was told today that this kid on my team called 911 twice this morning and hung up both times. They called back and his dad answered. The reason the kid called 911? He got an erection and didn't know what to do. I wish I was making this up.
Murphy: Don't make assumptions like that. While it would make sense that there would be an experienced player in the mafia, that doesn't necessarily hold. I've made that kind of mistake in the past (indeed, in a recent game I played on GG). It's equally likely the mod just assigned all the positions randomly.
Because he just made the longest post I've ever seen while in the random phase.
To be fair I am a noob and this is my very first game. I even admitted to taking a huge risk and gamble by revealing all of that information this early in the game.
I also had the alterior motive of moving us along quickly and avoiding several days of random discussion. I also showed to everyone that I am a highly analytical player.
I also revealed the reasoning behind selecting among the experienced players. This is only because we have the highest chance of selecting Mafia from among them. This is for several other reasons, one of which being that the experienced players will be somewhat aware of the other players playing strategies. Hence they, the experienced players, will be most likely capable of selecting the Mafia within a confined set of numbers that will yield the highest results statistically.
I even stated how this strategy would yield protection to the rest of the experienced players by making the Mafia shy away from night killing them and focusing on the noobs like myself.
Yes, it sucks to eliminate an experienced player but there stands strong reason for there being at least one mafia player among them.
As for my posts being long you will notice that I tend to focus on content heavy material or very little to say. I do not like piping in on the random events. I like developing the conversation, logic, and flow of the conversations. I am well aware of the target I have painted on myself by doing such.
I am also aware of the amount of information that can be revealed as a result. I simply hope that the two of you do not create a bandwagon situation where I get lynched before I can fully discuss my strategy with the rest of you.
As you may have noticed though we have noobs those noobs are also capable of logic and indepth perception of the situation. Any other concerns with my argument thus far?
It's a joke. A few years back Loran flipped scum for half a million games consecutive games. As a result, people started saying that on day 1 it's a wise move to "Lynch All Lorans" because he's probably scum :p.
Statistically he's no more likely to be scum than anyone else, but Lynch All Cream Puff Eaters just doesn't have the same ring to it.
לך לאזאזל
(in the case that didnt process correctly, it poorly translates to go to hell.)
Also to correct you, Lynch All lorans actually predates my run of being scum 11 of 12 games in a row. i was town in my first 5 games, and someone joked that i should be likely to be scum soon. At the same time, fadeblue started lynching me a ton in irc mafia and coined the phrase lynch all lorans, and took it to forum mafia. And then before i could be bitter...i was scum, again and again and aggggggggggggggain.
Anyhow, i'm upset this game started already, i need more time to get my new trick ready.
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Mafia MVP Harry Potter Mafia!
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Murphy: Don't make assumptions like that. While it would make sense that there would be an experienced player in the mafia, that doesn't necessarily hold. I've made that kind of mistake in the past (indeed, in a recent game I played on GG). It's equally likely the mod just assigned all the positions randomly.
EBWODP
Yes, that is understandable but given our game situation where there is an equal number of noobs and experienced players then there still exists a 50% probability of an experienced player being a Mafia player.
1. We have no clue about how Some One randomized roles. Most people use random.org and don't actually "pick" players for roles. Based on that, it's possible all the scum are among the new players. It's also possible all the scum are among the more experienced players.
2. Assuming for a second you are correct. That means that Some One, in an effort to not "ruin" his game picked and chose who played what role. By your logic, that means there is at least 1 scum among the experienced players because he wouldn't want his game ruined by an all-noob scum team. However, by the same line of logic, he wouldn't want his game ruined by an all-experienced scum team tearing apart the noobs, so it stands to reason there is also at least 1 scum among the new players. What makes hunting the experienced players better than hunting newbs?
EBWODP: Also, I like this murphy. Super-analytical, definitely trying to win. Vote Murphy. ONLY I CAN LEAD THE TOWN TO VICTORY! NOT YOU! MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
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Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
What is a "not-so-random" vote? Can you clarify your stance here?
It IS part of the random-vote stage (therefore counts as a random vote.. for now), but if he WAS serious, I might just keep the vote (provided his behavior stays as "bloodthirsty").
Kind of like a "half-joke", but I guess it wasn't that easy to get.
4 Votes on Murphy already. That puts me within lynching distance of only three votes. The one thing I do like about my situation as the votes will provide enormous information for the rest of the players. Reasoning behind voting and the voting pattern of said people is quite helpful. This is also pushing us rapidly out of the random stage so that we can quickly get down to business.
I have only one request and that is everyone refrain from voting further until we can get more discussion going less you lose potential information from the methods of the other noobs. Unfortunately my play is allowing the Mafia to run things. Keep that in mind.
Remember even with a random generator there is still a 50% chance of a Mafia player being amongst the Experienced players. Just be sure to give me time to claim before all of you lynch me so I can have the chance to help all of you destroy the gambino family.
4 Votes on Murphy already. That puts me within lynching distance of only three votes. The one thing I do like about my situation as the votes will provide enormous information for the rest of the players. Reasoning behind voting and the voting pattern of said people is quite helpful. This is also pushing us rapidly out of the random stage so that we can quickly get down to business.
I have only one request and that is everyone refrain from voting further until we can get more discussion going less you lose potential information from the methods of the other noobs. Unfortunately my play is allowing the Mafia to run things. Keep that in mind.
Remember even with a random generator there is still a 50% chance of a Mafia player being amongst the Experienced players. Just be sure to give me time to claim before all of you lynch me so I can have the chance to help all of you destroy the gambino family.
Curious, why do you assume scum are on your wagon? Just math?
Do you have any previous mafia experience sir murphy?
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Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
It IS part of the random-vote stage (therefore counts as a random vote.. for now), but if he WAS serious, I might just keep the vote (provided his behavior stays as "bloodthirsty").
Kind of like a "half-joke", but I guess it wasn't that easy to get.
EBWOP
I am quite serious in my arguments as this avenue of discussion should reveal quite a bit of information even if all of you lynch me the first night. I simply need to get enough information across to all of you before I die.
I do not intend to live to the end. I know my death will serve a purpose for the town and ultimately result in the Mafia being destroyed. Hell there is a high chance that if I am not lynched than I will be night killed as I have provided a strong argument that makes attacking the experienced players a disincentive for the Mafia players. Thus I plan on providing protection for the rest of the players simply through my strategy while making the Mafia sweat. This is primarily because they will view me as a threat that cannot be easily fooled.
Curious, why do you assume scum are on your wagon? Just math?
Do you have any previous mafia experience sir murphy?
I have previous werewolf experience from Gen Con 2006. I played for one day and night. That however is different in that people are easier to read in person than through the words on the internet. Part of my assumption arises from my strategy and gut feeling along with the given data.
I have previous werewolf experience from Gen Con 2006. I played for one day and night. That however is different in that people are easier to read in person than through the words on the internet. Part of my assumption arises from my strategy and gut feeling along with the given data.
Great, he's a CPNumberLoverCultist.
Anyone got a dayvig, we could use an azwolg here. :-P
(Newbs will not get these last 2 jokes)
#s are not good ways at deriving attacks on day 1. Yes you've sort of spurred us quickly out of random. Course, randomness is fun lighthearted and useful, so thats not great.
Jerk.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Mafia MVP Harry Potter Mafia!
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
To be fair I am a noob and this is my very first game. I even admitted to taking a huge risk and gamble by revealing all of that information this early in the game.
You said something very important here, and I want to make sure you said it on purpose. Speculation is a best guess, and it could be wrong. For example "Some One didn't want his game ruined by making all the scum noobs, so there are probably experience players in the scum team". It's ok to do, so long as you remember it can be wrong. For example, I am going to speculate that in a 12 person game, there are probably three scum, since 2 seems too few, and 4 seems too many.
On the other hand INFORMATION is something that is accurate. For example "In my Role PM, Some One told me as a mod confirmed fact that the scum team consists of 2 experienced players and 1 noob".
When you claim to be sharing information, what you meant is that you're sharing speculation yes? Incidentally I somewhat agree with your guess (the odds of picking 3 newbs at random in a 12 man town are pretty low), but disagree completely on the plan of action to take. In fact, I could see a newb player looking at a 3-newb scum team, and thinking this would be an absolutely PERFECT play, since the town is guranteed to mislynch if they follow it.
I also had the alterior motive of moving us along quickly and avoiding several days of random discussion. I also showed to everyone that I am a highly analytical player.
I also revealed the reasoning behind selecting among the experienced players. This is only because we have the highest chance of selecting Mafia from among them. This is for several other reasons, one of which being that the experienced players will be somewhat aware of the other players playing strategies. Hence they, the experienced players, will be most likely capable of selecting the Mafia within a confined set of numbers that will yield the highest results statistically.
You sure showed something all right.
You say that an experienced player is more likely to catch scum. And thus you favor a plan that kills off experienced players. How does this do anything but benifit the scum?
I even stated how this strategy would yield protection to the rest of the experienced players by making the Mafia shy away from night killing them and focusing on the noobs like myself.
No. You didn't. Even a 3 veteran scum team would be willing to NK a vet if we mislynch. It stands to figure that if 3 of the 4 surviving vets on day 2 are scum, the town is in trouble.
Any other concerns with my argument thus far?
Yeah. What happens to your plan if the scum team consists of 3 noobs like I suggested earlier? And why is focusing on veteran players better than focusing on scummy players?
Your plan seems like a HORRENDOUSLY terrible idea. The last time I saw a strategy of this type getting pushed on day 1, I was doing it... as scum.
I was told today that this kid on my team called 911 twice this morning and hung up both times. They called back and his dad answered. The reason the kid called 911? He got an erection and didn't know what to do. I wish I was making this up.
I have a specific strategy in mind given my role and position in this game. This is only a slightly dicey strategy but can pay off greatly if there is enough development. My primary concern is that three have not posted yet and people are jumping on a bandwagon for voting me.
I would not be so concerned if I were not 3 votes away from lynching before being able to get a discussion going. I have no problem being lynched day 1 so long as I can get my discussion in. If those three show up though and vote me out before we can discuss then I will have made a grave error in my strategy. Primarily because all of you will not have learned what I wanted you to.
Thus could one person and only one person Unvote Murphy and change that to a FoS on Murphy instead. I simply want to have a buffer so that we may discuss before I get lynched.
I have a specific strategy in mind given my role and position in this game. This is only a slightly dicey strategy but can pay off greatly if there is enough development. My primary concern is that three have not posted yet and people are jumping on a bandwagon for voting me.
I would not be so concerned if I were not 3 votes away from lynching before being able to get a discussion going. I have no problem being lynched day 1 so long as I can get my discussion in. If those three show up though and vote me out before we can discuss then I will have made a grave error in my strategy. Primarily because all of you will not have learned what I wanted you to.
Thus could one person and only one person Unvote Murphy and change that to a FoS on Murphy instead. I simply want to have a buffer so that we may discuss before I get lynched.
This post is very interesting. I get a bad feeling from his tone. I need to ponder it to figure out exactly what it is that bothers me about it.
In the meantime, Murphy: why are you so afraid of being L-3? That's not a really serious margin.
Murphy seems to be going through the 5 stages of dying...
I think we're at the bargaining stage?
On a more serious note, I don't like his most recent post either. First of all, he just hinted at having a power role. Second, I'm confused as to why he's alright with getting lynched. Third, he's pretty worried about getting lynched when we haven't even left the first page.
...he also wants to teach us something, apparently.
Remember even with a random generator there is still a 50% chance of a Mafia player being amongst the Experienced players.
Don't use math if you're bad at it. Lets assume a 3 person scum team generated randomly. The odds of it being all new players are (6/12)*(5/11)*(4/10) = 1/11, or roughly 9%. So with a random number generator there's roughly a 91% chance of having at least one experienced player be scum.
I was told today that this kid on my team called 911 twice this morning and hung up both times. They called back and his dad answered. The reason the kid called 911? He got an erection and didn't know what to do. I wish I was making this up.
You said something very important here, and I want to make sure you said it on purpose. Speculation is a best guess, and it could be wrong. For example "Some One didn't want his game ruined by making all the scum noobs, so there are probably experience players in the scum team". It's ok to do, so long as you remember it can be wrong. For example, I am going to speculate that in a 12 person game, there are probably three scum, since 2 seems too few, and 4 seems too many.
On the other hand INFORMATION is something that is accurate. For example "In my Role PM, Some One told me as a mod confirmed fact that the scum team consists of 2 experienced players and 1 noob".
When you claim to be sharing information, what you meant is that you're sharing speculation yes? Incidentally I somewhat agree with your guess (the odds of picking 3 newbs at random in a 12 man town are pretty low), but disagree completely on the plan of action to take. In fact, I could see a newb player looking at a 3-newb scum team, and thinking this would be an absolutely PERFECT play, since the town is guranteed to mislynch if they follow it.
You sure showed something all right.
You say that an experienced player is more likely to catch scum. And thus you favor a plan that kills off experienced players. How does this do anything but benifit the scum?
No. You didn't. Even a 3 veteran scum team would be willing to NK a vet if we mislynch. It stands to figure that if 3 of the 4 surviving vets on day 2 are scum, the town is in trouble.
Yeah. What happens to your plan if the scum team consists of 3 noobs like I suggested earlier? And why is focusing on veteran players better than focusing on scummy players?
Your plan seems like a HORRENDOUSLY terrible idea. The last time I saw a strategy of this type getting pushed on day 1, I was doing it... as scum.
EBWODP- just in case.
You are correct that given the initial information that all I could do as a noob in his first mafia game is provide his best guess. Unfortunately I am a highly analytical player who loves to rely on math and logic. By providing the first conflict in the game I am initiating everyone in conversation that will hopefully provide the more experienced players with the information they need.
Sadly, somewhat, I have every intention of being the sacrificial lamb for the group. All I care about is the Mafia getting taken out. It's my sole purpose in death.
Just to be clear all I have provided is my best possible guess with my initial information that has been given. Also do not forget that there may be a serial killer and 2 mafia players.
Please let's continue the discussion and continue scrutinizing me. I intend to get the scum to reveal information early on that the players will be able to use. My death will in a way be a validation of some of my claims. This is how I intend to help the town lynch the Mafia.
Any other questions? Bear in mind I am trying to get discussion going in that I had only made an opening remark to facilitate the discussion. Let's see what our other 3 players have to say as of this post.
More like his reincarnation.....CP quit mafia after a mason gambit ruined his perfect Harry Potter game </sarcasm>
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Don't use math if you're bad at it. Lets assume a 3 person scum team generated randomly. The odds of it being all new players are (6/12)*(5/11)*(4/10) = 1/11, or roughly 9%. So with a random number generator there's roughly a 91% chance of having at least one experienced player be scum.
And your plan is still a bad idea.
EBWOP
I agree my original plan is bad in certain circumstances as has been stated. Please pardon my mistake in the math. Also note that I am new and did not figure in the possibility of a 3rd scum.
I feel silly for not figuring in a 3rd scum now but still feel confident in my choice. I haven't played an online mafia game yet so I do not know how many scum there usually are. Please continue asking me questions if you like.
It IS part of the random-vote stage (therefore counts as a random vote.. for now), but if he WAS serious, I might just keep the vote (provided his behavior stays as "bloodthirsty").
Kind of like a "half-joke", but I guess it wasn't that easy to get.
If you're voting for serious reasons, it ceases to be a random vote, even if it happens during the "random vote stage." The random vote stage ends when people start voting for serious reasons. It looks like you're trying to get the best of both worlds. If you want to, you'll keep your vote on him, and it was a serious vote. If you don't want to, you'll take it off, and since it happened during the RVS it wasn't a serious vote. I think Murphy is entirely serious with his posts. How does that affect your vote?
How has he been bloodthirsty, and why do you think that makes him likely to be scum?
I agree my original plan is bad in certain circumstances as has been stated. Please pardon my mistake in the math. Also note that I am new and did not figure in the possibility of a 3rd scum.
I feel silly for not figuring in a 3rd scum now but still feel confident in my choice. I haven't played an online mafia game yet so I do not know how many scum there usually are. Please continue asking me questions if you like.
How could you not figure in a 3rd scum? If you've played any mafia at all, a game of 12 should have 3 scum. Unless your the third scum yourself. Which means you wouldn't need to factor the probability.
Obvious FoS Murphy
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KeyofDestiny, Animated God of Barning of The Æesir.
Mafia Stats:
2/3 Loss(#28 Town Disgaea,)
1/3 Wins(#29 Chess replacement, #1 Town GCF)
Murphy is displaying a lot of newb town tells here (Hinting at his role for no reason, not knowing the proper amount of scum) though they're all bits that may lose relevance depending on the setup (If there's an SK, his 2 mafia bit loses its value.)
Still, I don't think he's scum. Unvote
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
How could you not figure in a 3rd scum? If you've played any mafia at all, a game of 12 should have 3 scum. Unless your the third scum yourself. Which means you wouldn't need to factor the probability.
Obvious FoS Murphy
At Gen Con I played werewolf and we usually only had about 8-10 players with two werewolves. Finding out that there is a 3rd scum be it Mafia or Serial Killer adds in a few factors that I had not taken into consideration until recently. I still want to see the responses of Creampuffeater, crop circles, and kird kitty. 2 of those 3 are experienced players correct?
At Gen Con I played werewolf and we usually only had about 8-10 players with two werewolves. Finding out that there is a 3rd scum be it Mafia or Serial Killer adds in a few factors that I had not taken into consideration until recently. I still want to see the responses of Creampuffeater, crop circles, and kird kitty. 2 of those 3 are experienced players correct?
Yep, Murphy is really likely town..
CC is experienced. cpe is an experienced player who still plays like a newb. Pay him no mind.
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
I like to get the ball rolling and felt that this would be the most efficient way of doing so while revealing information both about myself and others through their reactions. My bad. Next time I'll let the random phase work it's ju-ju?
I like to get the ball rolling and felt that this would be the most efficient way of doing so while revealing information both about myself and others through their reactions. My bad. Next time I'll let the random phase work it's ju-ju?
The random phase is somewhat fun and lightheaded, while it does reveal some potential things to go on. See some other games for examples.
As it is, your actions here, have helped and i need to look through em, but there should be plenty to look for scum attacks in here.
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Players Alive:
Emo_Pinata
sandsoft blueMurphy
Pale Mage
HKKIDThose No Longer Living:
Edghyatt - Tevante Brack, Ex-Mafia Conspirator (vanilla) - Modkilled Day 1
creampuffeater - Tanya Urbaniec, Prostitute (vanilla) - Lynched Day 1
Gubjub
KirdKitty- Frank DeCicco, The Underboss (goon) - Lynched Day 2KeyofDestiny - Samuel Guinness, Emergency Room Surgeon (doctor) - Never Seen Again Night 2
Baenre - Jason Zhang, Mafia Victim (vanilla) - Bullet Between the Eyes Night 2
Kpaca
goatrevolt- Oswald Morrison, Bookie (vanilla) - Lynched Day 3Xyre- Dale McQuades, Carwash Owner (vanilla) - Ignition Rigged Night 3
CropCircles -The Teflon Don, John Joseph Gotti, Jr, the boss of bosses (untargettable) - Gave Up and Lynched Without a Fight Day 4
loran16 - Allison Shapiro, Jewelry Store Owner (1-shot vig) - Shot Pointblank Night 4
1. Bold your votes and unvotes please, this makes it easier for us. They should look like this: Vote loran16
2. If you are unvoting, I request that you write Unvote loran16 rather than just Unvote as this makes the vote counts easier and more accurate.
3. Any votes or unvotes not in bold will not be counted.
4. Do not communicate at night or day unless your role PM says otherwise.
5. Do not quote PM's or you will be modkilled. You can discuss the flavor and paraphrase it in your own words, but do not quote me.
6. Unvote before casting a new vote. Failure to unvote may result in the vote not being counted.
7. You may vote No lynch, and a majority of these votes will end the day without a death.
8. Please do not edit or delete your posts no matter how stupid a mistake you made. This will get you modkilled. This is your only warning.
9. Once you’re dead, you’re dead, so stop posting please. A single ‘bah’ post is permissible.
10. Even after you are dead, please refrain from discussing the game or your role with anyone, even other players who have also been eliminated. If you have any questions about this rule, please ask.
11. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 72-hour period, please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Otherwise, you may be prodded or replaced.
12. If you have a night choice to make, it is due by the posted deadline. I will not wait for you – if you do not submit a choice to me, tough! No choice will be made. You will receive a reminder one day before the deadline if you haven’t submitted your choice. Night will not end before the deadline to give the Gambino Crime Family time to talk.
13. Lynches will require a simple majority of votes. Once a player has reached the necessary majority, his pleas are useless and any attempts to unvote will go unheeded.
14. If you are requesting a mod prod or vote count, please bold you request so that we can see it more clearly.
15. In order to keep this game moving, everyone is expected to post at least once every two to three days and if you don't, you may be replaced or modkilled. WITHOUT WARNING, whatever your side.
16. The Town Win Condition is: When the entirety of the Gambino Crime Family has been eliminated, it will be immediately evident their reign of terror has ended.
17. HAVE FUN
18. Lastly and most importantly. Respect us and the rest of the players; I hope I do not have to modkill anyone.
GAME SPECIFIC RULES:
1. In order to keep the peace in the town's daily meetings, if I find you have received an infraction or warning for flaming, or feel your post is worthy of it, I will replace or modkill you depending on the severity. As part of the daily meetings, all citizens must remain calm and emotionally stable if they would like to continue living.
2. If I find a player to be purposely disruptive to the gameplay as a whole by attempting to sabatoge either the game in its entirety or another player, you will find yourself replaced or modkilled and potentially nominated for blacklisting from further mafia games. The town is trying to eliminate the vile scum in an organized fashion, and any blatant actions that can be seen as directly sabotaging these efforts will be punished by the penalty of death. If you cannot handle yourself in a reasonable fashion, the town will dispose of your useless body.
***********************************************************************
Sample Role PM:
You are Name, Sub-Role
About a paragraph of flavor detailing your backstory, your life, whatever else I felt like including. Depending on whether or not your character is based on a real life person depends on how long this paragraph will be. Anyone based on real life had their character name changed, and there is no person here whose story occurred in 1990. Many of the people are inspired from people alive decades ago when the mafia first came to New York or from people currently alive. The mafia are real people, but for the record, the timeline is not correct, and I didn't really care because it's awesome how it is. As you can see, I am giving out all this information because games are always much more exciting when people get lynched based on behavior and acting scummy than something stupid in regards to Role PM information.
Alignment: Town
Abilities: Vanilla
Win Condition: When the entirety of the Gambino Crime Family has been eliminated, it will be immediately evident their reign of terror has ended.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Day One has started. With 12 alive, it is 7 to lynch.
Vote Goatrevolt
FoS CropCircles
"It couldn't possibly have been a gun," a voice yells.
All twelve people are alright, for the most part. However, it appears sandsoft blue was trying to flush the toilet with his foot, when his foot slipped and went into the toilet. After missing a shoe, being soaking wet, and jamming the only toilet, sandsoft blue walks back into the main room and quietly takes his seat. Clearly he is embarassed, as he should be, because he successfully broke the toilet before the day even started, not to mention, he smells pretty awful.
Vote SandSoft Blue for breaking the toilet.
Mafia Stats:
2/3 Loss(#28 Town Disgaea,)
1/3 Wins(#29 Chess replacement, #1 Town GCF)
loran16
Xyre
goatrevolt
sandsoft blue
Cropcircles
creampuffeater
On the simple basis that I am a noob and that the group consists of 6 noobs and 6 experienced players.
It stands to reason that Some One would not want his mafia game to be ruined by some noobish players giving themselves away as mafia by acting scummy as noobs tend to act. Thus I propose there is at least one Mafia member within the 6 experienced players and the possibility of a Mafia member within the noob section.
Normally the odds of hitting a Mafia member within the first day is only: 1/11= 9% chance.
If I go with my gut and pursue the experienced players as having at least one Mafia member within their ranks then suddenly my guess is raised to: 1/6= 17% chance.
The more information I gather based on everyone else's actions will allow me to raise that percentage, especially if we make it to day 2. I feel perfectly fine in this accusation in that the Mafia will actually be more inclined to destroy the noobs before the experienced players in this manner. For any experienced player that is lynched or murdered only increases the odds of the Mafia being discovered.
Thus I hope the other experienced players will come to this conclusion and see that there is a 1/5 chance(20%) for them of lynching a Mafia player. They can clearly remove themselves from the list and thus have 5 suspects to choose from hence the 1/5 shot of getting it right.
This may be a strategic fally on my part coming out this early to say everything as I am sure the mafia as well as the noobs will target me for lynching or death by night. This will be ok in the long run because I will be protecting the experienced players who will then be able to discover the most likely Mafia players.
If however I am not targeted and the rest of the players follow my logic. Then we can systematically target the experienced players in an attempt to have them lynched. Each time we lynch though we will get that much closer to hitting the mafia.
Should the Mafia target the experienced players as I have mentioned then we will get ever closer. For example if we lynch an experienced player with no result then follow up the next day to find another experienced player killed. Well then we have only 4 experienced players left. That gives the rest of the groups a 25% chance for determining the correct Mafia player.
This will also help our remaining experienced players because then they will have a 33% chance of determing who of the three other remaining experienced players are of the mafia. Combine that with there insight and possible roles gives the town a high chance of removing one of the Mafia.
I have said quite a bit so far and would like to conclude my opening statements. My primary goal is to provide the experienced players with the tools necessary to removing the Mafia. At the same time I seek to dissuade the Mafia from attacking our experienced players who will be far more insightful in fishing out scummy activity. Unfortunately for me, my opening statement may be construed as a gambit that the Mafia will jump on claiming as scummy activity. So by providing my insight and starting strategy I have also painted quite a large target on myself.
If this gets me lynched then so be it as long as the rest of you catch the Mafia. My only purpose is to see them dead for what they have done to me! If I die by making them sweat and shining light on a high chance of hitting them then fine. I don't like it but at least my experienced players will still be alive in the town. They are the ones I want to vote for the other experienced players. They have the highest chance of getting the Mafia. IF I die I am only one noob townie to go down.
Whatever the outcome our chances of lynching the Mafia increases with the fewer people we have. This is why I am taking such a big risk this early in the game. Now let's open the discussion with people's views on what I have said and for whom I am about to vote.
Vote Creampuffeater
Reasoning: Xyre psuedo posted as did Sandsoft blue. This would be a random vote with only a 17% chance of being correct. As of this post I have only seen sandsoft blue post with a random vote and a FoS. I also did not want to provide the Mafia a chance to bandwagon a vote by choosing Goatrevolt. Another reason for avoiding goatrevolt is due to the potential bandwagon effect. I want to see peoples responses before I provide anyone the chance to bandwagon.
FOS SSB. We all know that if there's a daykiller in this game, it's going to be crop circles.
Mafia Stats
Why is Loran more likely to be a scum?
Unvote Loran. Vote Murphy
Are you seriously advocating that we random lynch all the best analysists in the game, just because they're good at it? Gawdzooks! If you weren't joking in that last post, then this vote just became serious.
Mafia Stats
Because he just made the longest post I've ever seen while in the random phase.
It's a joke. A few years back Loran flipped scum for half a million games consecutive games. As a result, people started saying that on day 1 it's a wise move to "Lynch All Lorans" because he's probably scum :p.
Statistically he's no more likely to be scum than anyone else, but Lynch All Cream Puff Eaters just doesn't have the same ring to it.
Mafia Stats
Not-so-random vote: Murphy
Dude, are you serious? (just for the record, I'm not... not 100%)
I like 4/4s for 7.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
To be fair I am a noob and this is my very first game. I even admitted to taking a huge risk and gamble by revealing all of that information this early in the game.
I also had the alterior motive of moving us along quickly and avoiding several days of random discussion. I also showed to everyone that I am a highly analytical player.
I also revealed the reasoning behind selecting among the experienced players. This is only because we have the highest chance of selecting Mafia from among them. This is for several other reasons, one of which being that the experienced players will be somewhat aware of the other players playing strategies. Hence they, the experienced players, will be most likely capable of selecting the Mafia within a confined set of numbers that will yield the highest results statistically.
I even stated how this strategy would yield protection to the rest of the experienced players by making the Mafia shy away from night killing them and focusing on the noobs like myself.
Yes, it sucks to eliminate an experienced player but there stands strong reason for there being at least one mafia player among them.
As for my posts being long you will notice that I tend to focus on content heavy material or very little to say. I do not like piping in on the random events. I like developing the conversation, logic, and flow of the conversations. I am well aware of the target I have painted on myself by doing such.
I am also aware of the amount of information that can be revealed as a result. I simply hope that the two of you do not create a bandwagon situation where I get lynched before I can fully discuss my strategy with the rest of you.
As you may have noticed though we have noobs those noobs are also capable of logic and indepth perception of the situation. Any other concerns with my argument thus far?
לך לאזאזל
(in the case that didnt process correctly, it poorly translates to go to hell.)
Also to correct you, Lynch All lorans actually predates my run of being scum 11 of 12 games in a row. i was town in my first 5 games, and someone joked that i should be likely to be scum soon. At the same time, fadeblue started lynching me a ton in irc mafia and coined the phrase lynch all lorans, and took it to forum mafia. And then before i could be bitter...i was scum, again and again and aggggggggggggggain.
Anyhow, i'm upset this game started already, i need more time to get my new trick ready.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
EBWODP
Yes, that is understandable but given our game situation where there is an equal number of noobs and experienced players then there still exists a 50% probability of an experienced player being a Mafia player.
Vote Loran. Let us start here.
Murphy, the problem with your logic is this:
1. We have no clue about how Some One randomized roles. Most people use random.org and don't actually "pick" players for roles. Based on that, it's possible all the scum are among the new players. It's also possible all the scum are among the more experienced players.
2. Assuming for a second you are correct. That means that Some One, in an effort to not "ruin" his game picked and chose who played what role. By your logic, that means there is at least 1 scum among the experienced players because he wouldn't want his game ruined by an all-noob scum team. However, by the same line of logic, he wouldn't want his game ruined by an all-experienced scum team tearing apart the noobs, so it stands to reason there is also at least 1 scum among the new players. What makes hunting the experienced players better than hunting newbs?
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
This serious or random?
What is a "not-so-random" vote? Can you clarify your stance here?
It IS part of the random-vote stage (therefore counts as a random vote.. for now), but if he WAS serious, I might just keep the vote (provided his behavior stays as "bloodthirsty").
Kind of like a "half-joke", but I guess it wasn't that easy to get.
I like 4/4s for 7.
I have only one request and that is everyone refrain from voting further until we can get more discussion going less you lose potential information from the methods of the other noobs. Unfortunately my play is allowing the Mafia to run things. Keep that in mind.
Remember even with a random generator there is still a 50% chance of a Mafia player being amongst the Experienced players. Just be sure to give me time to claim before all of you lynch me so I can have the chance to help all of you destroy the gambino family.
Curious, why do you assume scum are on your wagon? Just math?
Do you have any previous mafia experience sir murphy?
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
EBWOP
I am quite serious in my arguments as this avenue of discussion should reveal quite a bit of information even if all of you lynch me the first night. I simply need to get enough information across to all of you before I die.
I do not intend to live to the end. I know my death will serve a purpose for the town and ultimately result in the Mafia being destroyed. Hell there is a high chance that if I am not lynched than I will be night killed as I have provided a strong argument that makes attacking the experienced players a disincentive for the Mafia players. Thus I plan on providing protection for the rest of the players simply through my strategy while making the Mafia sweat. This is primarily because they will view me as a threat that cannot be easily fooled.
We simply need to see the rest of the discussion.
I have previous werewolf experience from Gen Con 2006. I played for one day and night. That however is different in that people are easier to read in person than through the words on the internet. Part of my assumption arises from my strategy and gut feeling along with the given data.
sorry, I'm a noob
Great, he's a CPNumberLoverCultist.
Anyone got a dayvig, we could use an azwolg here. :-P
(Newbs will not get these last 2 jokes)
#s are not good ways at deriving attacks on day 1. Yes you've sort of spurred us quickly out of random. Course, randomness is fun lighthearted and useful, so thats not great.
Jerk.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
DO this instead of editing.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
No random leaves me a sad panda. I dislike the use of mathematical procedure in mafia. I'd trust more on tells and slip ups.
You said something very important here, and I want to make sure you said it on purpose. Speculation is a best guess, and it could be wrong. For example "Some One didn't want his game ruined by making all the scum noobs, so there are probably experience players in the scum team". It's ok to do, so long as you remember it can be wrong. For example, I am going to speculate that in a 12 person game, there are probably three scum, since 2 seems too few, and 4 seems too many.
On the other hand INFORMATION is something that is accurate. For example "In my Role PM, Some One told me as a mod confirmed fact that the scum team consists of 2 experienced players and 1 noob".
When you claim to be sharing information, what you meant is that you're sharing speculation yes? Incidentally I somewhat agree with your guess (the odds of picking 3 newbs at random in a 12 man town are pretty low), but disagree completely on the plan of action to take. In fact, I could see a newb player looking at a 3-newb scum team, and thinking this would be an absolutely PERFECT play, since the town is guranteed to mislynch if they follow it.
You sure showed something all right.
You say that an experienced player is more likely to catch scum. And thus you favor a plan that kills off experienced players. How does this do anything but benifit the scum?
No. You didn't. Even a 3 veteran scum team would be willing to NK a vet if we mislynch. It stands to figure that if 3 of the 4 surviving vets on day 2 are scum, the town is in trouble.
Yeah. What happens to your plan if the scum team consists of 3 noobs like I suggested earlier? And why is focusing on veteran players better than focusing on scummy players?
Your plan seems like a HORRENDOUSLY terrible idea. The last time I saw a strategy of this type getting pushed on day 1, I was doing it... as scum.
Mafia Stats
I would not be so concerned if I were not 3 votes away from lynching before being able to get a discussion going. I have no problem being lynched day 1 so long as I can get my discussion in. If those three show up though and vote me out before we can discuss then I will have made a grave error in my strategy. Primarily because all of you will not have learned what I wanted you to.
Thus could one person and only one person Unvote Murphy and change that to a FoS on Murphy instead. I simply want to have a buffer so that we may discuss before I get lynched.
This post is very interesting. I get a bad feeling from his tone. I need to ponder it to figure out exactly what it is that bothers me about it.
In the meantime, Murphy: why are you so afraid of being L-3? That's not a really serious margin.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
I think we're at the bargaining stage?
On a more serious note, I don't like his most recent post either. First of all, he just hinted at having a power role. Second, I'm confused as to why he's alright with getting lynched. Third, he's pretty worried about getting lynched when we haven't even left the first page.
...he also wants to teach us something, apparently.
Don't use math if you're bad at it. Lets assume a 3 person scum team generated randomly. The odds of it being all new players are (6/12)*(5/11)*(4/10) = 1/11, or roughly 9%. So with a random number generator there's roughly a 91% chance of having at least one experienced player be scum.
And your plan is still a bad idea.
Mafia Stats
[The Family]
EBWODP- just in case.
You are correct that given the initial information that all I could do as a noob in his first mafia game is provide his best guess. Unfortunately I am a highly analytical player who loves to rely on math and logic. By providing the first conflict in the game I am initiating everyone in conversation that will hopefully provide the more experienced players with the information they need.
Sadly, somewhat, I have every intention of being the sacrificial lamb for the group. All I care about is the Mafia getting taken out. It's my sole purpose in death.
Just to be clear all I have provided is my best possible guess with my initial information that has been given. Also do not forget that there may be a serial killer and 2 mafia players.
Please let's continue the discussion and continue scrutinizing me. I intend to get the scum to reveal information early on that the players will be able to use. My death will in a way be a validation of some of my claims. This is how I intend to help the town lynch the Mafia.
Any other questions? Bear in mind I am trying to get discussion going in that I had only made an opening remark to facilitate the discussion. Let's see what our other 3 players have to say as of this post.
...it reminds me of when I was in my first newbie, when I was a vengeful townie. Some_one was in that game as well...
More like his reincarnation.....CP quit mafia after a mason gambit ruined his perfect Harry Potter game </sarcasm>
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
EBWOP
I agree my original plan is bad in certain circumstances as has been stated. Please pardon my mistake in the math. Also note that I am new and did not figure in the possibility of a 3rd scum.
I feel silly for not figuring in a 3rd scum now but still feel confident in my choice. I haven't played an online mafia game yet so I do not know how many scum there usually are. Please continue asking me questions if you like.
If you're voting for serious reasons, it ceases to be a random vote, even if it happens during the "random vote stage." The random vote stage ends when people start voting for serious reasons. It looks like you're trying to get the best of both worlds. If you want to, you'll keep your vote on him, and it was a serious vote. If you don't want to, you'll take it off, and since it happened during the RVS it wasn't a serious vote. I think Murphy is entirely serious with his posts. How does that affect your vote?
How has he been bloodthirsty, and why do you think that makes him likely to be scum?
How could you not figure in a 3rd scum? If you've played any mafia at all, a game of 12 should have 3 scum. Unless your the third scum yourself. Which means you wouldn't need to factor the probability.
Obvious FoS Murphy
Mafia Stats:
2/3 Loss(#28 Town Disgaea,)
1/3 Wins(#29 Chess replacement, #1 Town GCF)
Still, I don't think he's scum. Unvote
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
At Gen Con I played werewolf and we usually only had about 8-10 players with two werewolves. Finding out that there is a 3rd scum be it Mafia or Serial Killer adds in a few factors that I had not taken into consideration until recently. I still want to see the responses of Creampuffeater, crop circles, and kird kitty. 2 of those 3 are experienced players correct?
I miss my random phase
Yep, Murphy is really likely town..
CC is experienced. cpe is an experienced player who still plays like a newb. Pay him no mind.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Sorry?
I like to get the ball rolling and felt that this would be the most efficient way of doing so while revealing information both about myself and others through their reactions. My bad. Next time I'll let the random phase work it's ju-ju?
The random phase is somewhat fun and lightheaded, while it does reveal some potential things to go on. See some other games for examples.
As it is, your actions here, have helped and i need to look through em, but there should be plenty to look for scum attacks in here.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
How about as a response?
Granted, that's how I respond to everything, these days.
[The Family]