Will we be able to notice when we pass through the point of singularity? Futurists like Ray Kurzweil have suggested that the singularity will happen almost instantaneously, perhaps right after the first artificial intelligences come online. Vernor Vinge, the computer scientist and science fiction author who popularized the idea of a "technological singularity," has said that when it happens' it will be obvious because landscapes would transform before our eyes. Mountains would appear where before there had been ocean. People would be able to do differential equations in their heads. In other words, we would absolutely notice when the singularity arrived.'
I am in this camp usually, that there will be this transformative second and in a mere moment the entire world will be transformed into a technological miracle.
Though, now with the slow rolling out of things like Google Glass, and DIY cyber and genetic modifications, I wonder if we kind of trickle through the point of singularity, perhaps only be able to conceive of it in retrospect?
Everytime I read people getting excited about AI or the Singularity or uploading the human consciousnesses into android avatars, I flip on the evening news or see a video from WSHH and am pretty rudely reminded how backwards most of the human race still is.
Not sure if my opinion counts on this, since I tend to think that all of the technological singularity thinkers are simply wrong, but...
I also think we wouldn't notice it if it did happen. It's been 6 years since the first iPhone and frankly, that device (and the subsequent wave of smartphones) along with a few really very simple websites (twitter, facebook) have been about as in-your-face noticeably revolutionary as I can imagine technological advances being, and you still have to sit and think about it to notice how different the world is today compared to 2004.
No revolution is going to occur instantly. Virtually instantly will still necessarily mean a span of at least a few years - if nothing else, if suddenly we had a computer capable of almost instantly designing products a million times better than anything else can today design them, including means of almost instantly producing and delivering significant quantities of the items, it'd take months to years to roll out the physical capability of implementing that program of near instant production and shipping, since we would necessarily have to use our existing infrastructure to overhaul our infrastructure to be capable of delivering products in that way.
That's easily enough time for people to get used to the idea that new ideas will come at them at breakneck pace - if we're not already pretty much used to it right now. And that eliminates any hope of noticing a rate increase in the pace at which new ideas are conceived and implemented; it'd just be background noise.
Incidentally, this:
it will be obvious because landscapes would transform before our eyes. Mountains would appear where before there had been ocean. People would be able to do differential equations in their heads.
...is pure, fanciful garbage, and shows that, however intelligent he might be, Vernor Vinge is actually having a hard time conceiving of the future he's predicting. If the technological singularity comes to pass, people won't be doing differential equations in their heads. If it comes to pass, people won't be doing differential equations at all. The trick of this kind of event isn't that we take on superhuman powers, it's that our machines become capable of reworking the world to suit us. We'd obsolete differential equations done by humans, because a computer would already have done them before any human needs to notice that one could be applicable to a problem.
Though, now with the slow rolling out of things like Google Glass, and DIY cyber and genetic modifications, I wonder if we kind of trickle through the point of singularity, perhaps only be able to conceive of it in retrospect?
Thoughts?
Where can I find information on these? that sounds extremely interesting...
Everytime I read people getting excited about AI or the Singularity or uploading the human consciousnesses into android avatars, I flip on the evening news or see a video from WSHH and am pretty rudely reminded how backwards most of the human race still is.
I agree. I'm generally in favor of transhumanist schools of thought, but I think we just aren't ready for that kind of future yet. I'd want the transformation of humanity to be equitable and accessible to everyone, but the social and political landscape that we live in now suggests that won't happen any time soon. If we enter this kind of technological stage, we'd most likely see only the wealthy and well to do have the technology first. The last thing our species needs is for the "have-have not" gap become certain classes being objectively better than lower classes in terms of physical and mental abilities. I want the singularity to happen very much, but I want the results to be positive. I want all of us to transcend our current limitations.
Will we be able to notice when we pass through the point of singularity? Futurists like Ray Kurzweil have suggested that the singularity will happen almost instantaneously, perhaps right after the first artificial intelligences come online. Vernor Vinge, the computer scientist and science fiction author who popularized the idea of a "technological singularity," has said that when it happens' it will be obvious because landscapes would transform before our eyes. Mountains would appear where before there had been ocean. People would be able to do differential equations in their heads. In other words, we would absolutely notice when the singularity arrived.'
I am in this camp usually, that there will be this transformative second and in a mere moment the entire world will be transformed into a technological miracle.
Though, now with the slow rolling out of things like Google Glass, and DIY cyber and genetic modifications, I wonder if we kind of trickle through the point of singularity, perhaps only be able to conceive of it in retrospect?
Thoughts?
[Clan Flamingo]
I also think we wouldn't notice it if it did happen. It's been 6 years since the first iPhone and frankly, that device (and the subsequent wave of smartphones) along with a few really very simple websites (twitter, facebook) have been about as in-your-face noticeably revolutionary as I can imagine technological advances being, and you still have to sit and think about it to notice how different the world is today compared to 2004.
No revolution is going to occur instantly. Virtually instantly will still necessarily mean a span of at least a few years - if nothing else, if suddenly we had a computer capable of almost instantly designing products a million times better than anything else can today design them, including means of almost instantly producing and delivering significant quantities of the items, it'd take months to years to roll out the physical capability of implementing that program of near instant production and shipping, since we would necessarily have to use our existing infrastructure to overhaul our infrastructure to be capable of delivering products in that way.
That's easily enough time for people to get used to the idea that new ideas will come at them at breakneck pace - if we're not already pretty much used to it right now. And that eliminates any hope of noticing a rate increase in the pace at which new ideas are conceived and implemented; it'd just be background noise.
Incidentally, this:
...is pure, fanciful garbage, and shows that, however intelligent he might be, Vernor Vinge is actually having a hard time conceiving of the future he's predicting. If the technological singularity comes to pass, people won't be doing differential equations in their heads. If it comes to pass, people won't be doing differential equations at all. The trick of this kind of event isn't that we take on superhuman powers, it's that our machines become capable of reworking the world to suit us. We'd obsolete differential equations done by humans, because a computer would already have done them before any human needs to notice that one could be applicable to a problem.
Where can I find information on these? that sounds extremely interesting...
I agree. I'm generally in favor of transhumanist schools of thought, but I think we just aren't ready for that kind of future yet. I'd want the transformation of humanity to be equitable and accessible to everyone, but the social and political landscape that we live in now suggests that won't happen any time soon. If we enter this kind of technological stage, we'd most likely see only the wealthy and well to do have the technology first. The last thing our species needs is for the "have-have not" gap become certain classes being objectively better than lower classes in terms of physical and mental abilities. I want the singularity to happen very much, but I want the results to be positive. I want all of us to transcend our current limitations.
UAzami, Locus of All KnowledgeU
BMarrow-Gnawer, Crime Lord of ComboB
WBRTariel, Hellraiser StaxWBR
Annul is really good in EDH
Some of these guys definitely qualify:
http://io9.com/7-bio-artists-who-are-transforming-the-fabric-of-life-i-558156053
[Clan Flamingo]