Hi, welcome to another Proph micro. This time we're ripping off yet another mafiascum setup - Fortnight Mafia. However, in order to fit the size limit of a micro, we are cutting everything in half.
Silvercrys3467 will be co-modding this game with me. If you send me accusations please be sure to send it to him as well.
This will again be yet another experimental game, mainly focusing on reads accuracy and ability to project towniness.
How will this setup work?
1. This setup will consist of seven players:
6 Townies
1 Mafia
2. There will be only one Day - Day 1. This game will last from the start of Day 1 to the end of the game, 7 days.
3. Day 1 will work as normal. Majority lynches. If the town lynches the only mafia member, all six members of the town win.
4. If the town mislynches, then the game will progress into the Accusation Stage. Every living Town member becomes a Independent Private Investigator and will win or lose for themselves. The lynched townie will not become an investigator and will automatically lose.
5. At the end of 7 days, the game ends and the private investigator's accusations are frozen on their last accusation.
6. If 4 players vote to end the game early, the game will end early, and all accusations will be frozen.
7. A Private Investigator who receives more accusations than any other player will not make an accusation and will automatically lose.
8. The mafia player wins if you are not accused by any other living player.
9. A Private Investigator will win if he makes an accusation against the remaining mafia player.
SAMPLE ROLE PMs
You begin as a member of the Town. On Day 1, you may vote in order to lynch a player.
On Day 2, if you were not lynched, you will change from a member of the town to a Independent Private Investigator. At this point, you will accuse another player, attempting to identify the remaining mafia member. At the end of 7 days or whenever 4 people vote to end the game, the game ends.
You win IF:
1. Town lynches a mafia member Day 1.
2. You accuse the only mafia member. HOWEVER, if you receive the most accusations against you, you will NOT make an accusation and you will automatically lose. A tie will not automatically make you lose or remove your accusation.
Feel free to PM me or message me on Discord your accusation. You may change it at any time before one week or before 4 players vote to end the game early.
You are the only member of the Mafia.
If you are lynched Day 1, you lose.
You win IF:
1. You are not lynched on Day 1
2. You are not accused by a Independent Private Investigator (note that the player accused most does not get to make an accusation).
Feel free to PM me or message me on Discord your accusation. You can accuse people, but that doesn't mean anything for the game.
The game begins now, and the thread can be found here.
This is meant to be an experimental game. If it is successful, I may run more setups like these.
And immediately I recognize a problem with the setup.
In the original setup you're essentially choosing from 11 players since one scum escapes. You know you're town + someone was mislynched + one mafia escapes. In this game, you're essentially choosing from 5 players, since you know you're town and someone was mislynched.
It makes the only mafia's job more difficult. I have a couple of solutions I'd like to propose:
1) Making the mafia lose if they have 2+ accusations. If the mafia member only has one accusation, the player who accused that mafia AND the mafia win.
2) Closing the thread after Day 1, making people accuse others based solely on that Day 1
Not that it tells us anything because lol random lynching, but I think the chance of the mafia member winning if players lynch randomly is 34.45%.
That is the chance of a town mislynch during phase 1 (85.71%) multiplied by the chance no remaining town member selects them in phase 2 (83.33% x 83.33% x 83.33% x 83.33% x 83.33% = 40.19%).
For reference, mountainous set ups that are generally held to be "balanced" (11/2) have a /town/ win rate of around 40% when random lynching, which would make this at least appear to be super town sided. Although the town doesn't win together in this set up, so...
No, your math's right except that the second part is (4/5 ^ 5) rather than (5/6 ^ 5), because a Townie won't accuse himself.
Whoops. That's embarrassing.
So yeah, 28%ish is the correct mafia win rate, but the chance of an individual town winning /is/probably around the same? 14% to lynch correctly, 20% to accuse the mafia member? Something like that.
Actually, it's also 28%-ish. The chance of any individual to win is pretty comparable, which is why I don't think this is unbalanced as-is. (The inaccuracy with your math this time is that you're not considering the chance that the Townie gets mislynched before reaching the accusation stage. )
Chance of Mafioso winning = (chance of mislynch) * (chance of not being accused) = (6/7) * (4/5 ^ 5) = 28.08%
Chance of Townie winning = (chance of correct lynch) + ((chance of surviving) * (chance of accusing correctly) = (1/7) + ((5/7) * (1/5)) = (2/7) = 28.57%
So the Mafioso has only a very slightly lower chance of winning than a Townie.
EDIT: Actually, I forgot to account for rule #7, which makes a Townie automatically lose if accused too many times, so that drops the chance even lower. I don't think this is Town-sided at all.
OK, I should be starting this game sometime today.
Keep in mind that this game really is not mafia by any stretch of the imagination. I was briefly talking with Regfan and he said that if he was in this game he wouldn't know how to work out who is actually mafia because town and scum basically have the same win condition. Still, I think town and mafia have some minor distinctions between them (like the sole mafia knows that the other six are town) that I'm still kind of okay running it. Either way it'll be fun to watch.
Yeah as Proph said the win conditions are very similar; Town lose if they are lynched. Mafia lose if they are lynched. Town lose if they are the most suspected post-lynch. Mafia lose if they are suspected post-lynch. Going to be very difficult to determine town from mafia, original had two mafia so you had interaction analysis to work with or information to glean from the scum that left during the night phase, there isn't any of that here. Will certainly be an entertaining game to observe though!
Silvercrys3467 will be co-modding this game with me. If you send me accusations please be sure to send it to him as well.
This will again be yet another experimental game, mainly focusing on reads accuracy and ability to project towniness.
How will this setup work?
1. This setup will consist of seven players:
6 Townies
1 Mafia
2. There will be only one Day - Day 1. This game will last from the start of Day 1 to the end of the game, 7 days.
3. Day 1 will work as normal. Majority lynches. If the town lynches the only mafia member, all six members of the town win.
4. If the town mislynches, then the game will progress into the Accusation Stage. Every living Town member becomes a Independent Private Investigator and will win or lose for themselves. The lynched townie will not become an investigator and will automatically lose.
5. At the end of 7 days, the game ends and the private investigator's accusations are frozen on their last accusation.
6. If 4 players vote to end the game early, the game will end early, and all accusations will be frozen.
7. A Private Investigator who receives more accusations than any other player will not make an accusation and will automatically lose.
8. The mafia player wins if you are not accused by any other living player.
9. A Private Investigator will win if he makes an accusation against the remaining mafia player.
SAMPLE ROLE PMs
On Day 2, if you were not lynched, you will change from a member of the town to a Independent Private Investigator. At this point, you will accuse another player, attempting to identify the remaining mafia member. At the end of 7 days or whenever 4 people vote to end the game, the game ends.
You win IF:
1. Town lynches a mafia member Day 1.
2. You accuse the only mafia member. HOWEVER, if you receive the most accusations against you, you will NOT make an accusation and you will automatically lose. A tie will not automatically make you lose or remove your accusation.
Feel free to PM me or message me on Discord your accusation. You may change it at any time before one week or before 4 players vote to end the game early.
If you are lynched Day 1, you lose.
You win IF:
1. You are not lynched on Day 1
2. You are not accused by a Independent Private Investigator (note that the player accused most does not get to make an accusation).
Feel free to PM me or message me on Discord your accusation. You can accuse people, but that doesn't mean anything for the game.
The game begins now, and the thread can be found here.
This is meant to be an experimental game. If it is successful, I may run more setups like these.
(/in)
1. tomsloger
2. Megiddo
3. Huntzilla
4. Rhand
5. D_V
6. Cythare
7. Tom
(/replace?)
1. shadowlancerx
2. Azrael
(/spectate)
1.
X.
In the original setup you're essentially choosing from 11 players since one scum escapes. You know you're town + someone was mislynched + one mafia escapes. In this game, you're essentially choosing from 5 players, since you know you're town and someone was mislynched.
It makes the only mafia's job more difficult. I have a couple of solutions I'd like to propose:
1) Making the mafia lose if they have 2+ accusations. If the mafia member only has one accusation, the player who accused that mafia AND the mafia win.
2) Closing the thread after Day 1, making people accuse others based solely on that Day 1
Thoughts?
That is the chance of a town mislynch during phase 1 (85.71%) multiplied by the chance no remaining town member selects them in phase 2 (83.33% x 83.33% x 83.33% x 83.33% x 83.33% = 40.19%).
For reference, mountainous set ups that are generally held to be "balanced" (11/2) have a /town/ win rate of around 40% when random lynching, which would make this at least appear to be super town sided. Although the town doesn't win together in this set up, so...
And yeah, that's the difference here: the Town isn't winning together, so the Mafioso has a comparable chance of winning to any Townie.
How you want to define balance (individual or factional) is up to you, though; there's really no right answer to that.
So yeah, 28%ish is the correct mafia win rate, but the chance of an individual town winning /is/probably around the same? 14% to lynch correctly, 20% to accuse the mafia member? Something like that.
Chance of Mafioso winning = (chance of mislynch) * (chance of not being accused) = (6/7) * (4/5 ^ 5) = 28.08%
Chance of Townie winning = (chance of correct lynch) + ((chance of surviving) * (chance of accusing correctly) = (1/7) + ((5/7) * (1/5)) = (2/7) = 28.57%
So the Mafioso has only a very slightly lower chance of winning than a Townie.
EDIT: Actually, I forgot to account for rule #7, which makes a Townie automatically lose if accused too many times, so that drops the chance even lower. I don't think this is Town-sided at all.
I haven't exercised my stats in a while.
/in
^
/In
And bump
/in
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
I bet no one on this forum guessed in their wildest dreams the 7th player would be me. (in)
Obviously haven't played for a while but I've got one week before school starts so lets give it a try.
That is, if I'm still alive in a week. Megs, settle North Korea down a bit will ya?
Keep in mind that this game really is not mafia by any stretch of the imagination. I was briefly talking with Regfan and he said that if he was in this game he wouldn't know how to work out who is actually mafia because town and scum basically have the same win condition. Still, I think town and mafia have some minor distinctions between them (like the sole mafia knows that the other six are town) that I'm still kind of okay running it. Either way it'll be fun to watch.