@Proph:
1. Because I had no confidence in the high/low thing as an ACTUAL THING. It was more "this feels like this could be the case, lets assume it's true and see where it goes" and it turned out to not be a thing.
2.I believe it was because I disliked DotA's lack of really doing anything at all more than I disliked Cantrip's play. I think I made a post addressing that somewhere, and when I come across it during my towncase I'll make a note.
3. IIRC I was reading his ISO when I posted that first post, and then was asked by Wisp to ISO him officially? Yeah no in a post just before it I said I was rereading Osie. And I think I made the "Cross might be scum" post because I'd already finished reading his ISO and that was the conclusion I'd come to?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Proph I hrrmmmmmm'ed at Cantrip's post because of him saying meta was a big part of his read. Felt very weird to claim a meta read on a suspected identity. Then he gave a bunch of hedging before sticking with the read. Had the potential of TMI.
The second question is because I didn't really want to argue again that you were being driven by an agenda. I had outlined my (incorrect) case on that elsewhere.
The third question will be answered in my self ISO but the short answer is I really thought I'd caught something early with you and was probably falling to confirmation bias in reading subsequent posts. I'd said early on that I should reevaluate if you were able to keep up not the activity but the direct engagement but never really did that. I took your reevaluation of me to be backing down from conflict after EoD1 when I survived. As for the "kid gloves" to use your words it wasn't exactly about the way you posted at KJ but the way you handled the thread flow. I thought it fit because you were leaving him in the PoE but not actively trying to bury him. I wouldn't call most of what you did actively defending him but prioritizing other targets.
1. Because I had no confidence in the high/low thing as an ACTUAL THING. It was more "this feels like this could be the case, lets assume it's true and see where it goes" and it turned out to not be a thing.
2.I believe it was because I disliked DotA's lack of really doing anything at all more than I disliked Cantrip's play. I think I made a post addressing that somewhere, and when I come across it during my towncase I'll make a note.
3. IIRC I was reading his ISO when I posted that first post, and then was asked by Wisp to ISO him officially? Yeah no in a post just before it I said I was rereading Osie. And I think I made the "Cross might be scum" post because I'd already finished reading his ISO and that was the conclusion I'd come to?
OK, you not doing much with the whole high/low posters kinda makes sense now because you didn't really push any scumreads or vote anybody based off of it. You just only hammered the two townies (and helped us vote scum Eco off the map)
Please point to me where you said you disliked DoTA.
Uhh I'll recheck context but I can buy this I think.
@Proph I hrrmmmmmm'ed at Cantrip's post because of him saying meta was a big part of his read. Felt very weird to claim a meta read on a suspected identity. Then he gave a bunch of hedging before sticking with the read. Had the potential of TMI.
The second question is because I didn't really want to argue again that you were being driven by an agenda. I had outlined my (incorrect) case on that elsewhere.
The third question will be answered in my self ISO but the short answer is I really thought I'd caught something early with you and was probably falling to confirmation bias in reading subsequent posts. I'd said early on that I should reevaluate if you were able to keep up not the activity but the direct engagement but never really did that. I took your reevaluation of me to be backing down from conflict after EoD1 when I survived. As for the "kid gloves" to use your words it wasn't exactly about the way you posted at KJ but the way you handled the thread flow. I thought it fit because you were leaving him in the PoE but not actively trying to bury him. I wouldn't call most of what you did actively defending him but prioritizing other targets.
Is there a reason why you didn't mention this, or pressure Cantrip for this during Day 1? I know you were pretty focused on Osie and I, but I don't think there was anything precluding either Cantrip/me or Cantrip/Osie being a team at the time - especially when Cantrip also expressed a townread on Osie during Day 1.
And why did you interpret me re-evaluating you at EoD1/SoD2 as a scummy thing? Wouldn't me as scum just try to railroad you and continue my dogged pursuit after we mislunched GJ?
Fair re: thread flow.
--
I'm still busy with a coding assessment but I'll try to be more active on Friday. Until then, y'all just post your cases.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Here's the random notes post I've been saving up all Day regarding Cantrip/Eco interactions. Very lazy, cursory analysis that is not formatted well.
Cantripmancer:
I tried to play the game last night, but MTGS kept throwing error messages, so I gave up and went to bed.
Caught up, ready to rock, let's get this bread.
Crossbell: I know high interaction doesn't automatically equate to town, but I always lean that way. Some general game solving vibes, too. I don't really get the suspicion on Axel. 98 might be a little try-hard, but, as has been noted, the Proph roleplay may be a factor there. Maybe I've got them higher than I ought just because they correctly noted that my absence was because of the weekend. If I'm right in my suspicions of who they are, though, they're solidly in their town meta. Certainly don't see why they're L-2. Town.
@Cross: Can you point to differences in other games from Axel? I'm just getting standard Axel vibes so far.
Killjoy: Pretty light in content, but that last post (150) is pretty solidly town paranoid KJ. Townlean.
DoTArchon: Feels like he wants to solve, especially with his insight into KJ's mindset. Townlean.
Wisp: I think a telling point here is the carelessness. Scum Wisp likes to pretend that they're careless, but they rarely actually post things that garner serious attention beyond "Why is Wisp the way Wisp be?" I'm not getting faked carelessness here (other than the drunkposting, but drunkposting always feels fake to me.) Mild townlean.
Axel: Not much here, but certainly not getting the "awkward" vibes that Cross is concerned about. Still null.
Grape: Some mindmeld on the Easy Breezy Beautiful Whisper read, and I like the long version of 73, but the TLDR feels waffly. Of course, it's coming from the Hedgelord, so I'll take it with a grain of salt and wait and see. Null.
DV: I hate reading DV. Scumlean.
Proph: The energy and engagement give me generally good vibes, but the progression from 22, where he says he will easily be able to read Wisp, to 30, where he votes Wisp for "clumsy" posts feels weird, especially with Proph saying it's for Wisp's "early" posts.
@Proph: Can you show me Wisp being "clumsy", as you note in 30? In their "early" posts only, please.
Also, I don't understand this:
Quote from Prophylaxis »
Do you think Wisp right now is engaged and relaxed? I think his posting has been quite clumsy and.. unconfident, for lack of a better term. He seems to be annoyed with both how I and Crossbell are treating him, which is understandable.
You seem to be listing Wisp's annoyance with you and Cross as a point against them, but then you say it's understandable?
Vote: Prophylaxis
This post here makes me feel like he has TMI on Killjoy being town? Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but the way he just goes "town, town town" on Crossbell, KJ, and DoTA. He fencesits on Grape. He says that he gets "standard Axel vibes" from Axel, which makes me think that he may be TMIing on Killjoy, especially since he says this:
Quote from Cantripmancer »
It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ.
Epecially when the thread consensus was very much at KJ either a null or scumread.
Also again, might be confirmation biasing, but I kinda don't like this interaction between Cantrip and GF. It feels very softball-y. Also I especially don't like the "Hrmmmmmmmmm" coming from GF here.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
@Cantrip I don't get your town read on crossbell at all. You only added two details beyond engaged and solvey=town. The first was the Proph roleplay was a factor in other people (DV and myself notably) scum reading the wall post and you having a guess to the identity and projecting that to the town meta. I have a hard time seeing how that equals a top town read.
Quote from Cantripmancer »
The meta read is actually playing a lot stronger here than I think I realized. Each subsequent post makes me feel like it's more likely who I think it is, and I'm freaking loving it. (Spoiler: I'm probably completely wrong, because I'm almost always wrong on these things, but something something blind squirrel...) I'm also happy with the volume of output. Again, not necessarily town on its own, but in combination with everything, feels indicative to me. The Axel read still doesn't meld with me (nor the DoTa one, tbf), but the meta dive at least lets me see where Cross is coming from.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Hrmmmm.
Cantrip didn't really interact with either KJ or GF that much, so let's take a look at Ecophagy.
Reread complete!
Top town reads are Proph and Axelrod. Proph picked up the most + points as I was reading, but in general I think his D1 progression was organic and didn't really fit a mafia mindset. He makes a lot of big calls (LW from mafia to town under zero pressure, Crossbell as Town, DV Mafia then Town) when it would have been easy to ride on any read (or at least shelve them rather than reverse when they didn't gain traction). I also think his defence of Crossbell was towny - he put effort into the analysis and heart into arguing with DV, and he tried a couple of alternative wagons where mafia would have found it easy to park a vote and just not try to actually stop the Crossbell execute. This is just beyond what I think mafia Proph would think to do, especially since he caught some heat on D1 and didn't back down or go conservative.
Axelrod's town read is largely based on effort. I don't truly know the limit's of Axel's scum range, but the analysis he has posted reads like he's figuring players out one by one, not working toward a grander strategy (which I think is also supported by the resulting reads being fuzzy/relative rather than hard). I'm going to need a break before I can sift through them and decide how much I agree with though. I also wrote down #206 - I liked the fact that Axel not only directly went against the easiest mafia read at the time, but also didn't give out town points he wanted to because Crossbell claimed to not be Osie.
DoTArchon is my top mafia read - This isn't really groundbreaking, but he's been very focused on small things to the exclusion of having to interact with the thread at large (e.g. #259). Stuff like in #137 he's asking Crossbell for a very specific clarification but then just drops the (very predetermined looking) vote in #139. I know Axel liked #263 but I don't: "not T/T" a big call, but DoTA doesn't follow it up or push it - especially now that one half of it flipped town! #437 is probably the most content-dense post, but pretty much every read is either very fencesitty or comes from paranoia - nothing solid.
Others:
- GF really does not have a lot of content. I liked #66 for an against the grain LW town read. Similarly in #543 GF votes Proph in contrast to many easier wagons (GJ, DoTA, KJ) and it was a doubling down of an existing slightly dangerous read. The major problem is that GF hasn't done much else D2 other than just chip at Proph and make some fencesitting reads without voting anywhere. So he's either Mafia who's just clinging to a vanity vote or town in a tunnel who need to look back at the macro game. I think #768 is the latter direction but that's only a first step
- KJ I can broadly see what Axel is getting at in #842. KJ doesn't have a lot but the nuggets he does have are OK. I'm less high on the early NKA calls because I think they are very easy to present as content while also being useless. Agree also that KJ could have easily voted Crossbell early (countered by KJ joining that wagon in #524 specifically as heat was building on KJ). KJ feels peripheral but more in a manner where he doing his own thing in his own way rather than deliberately avoiding interaction. I guess like GF I need to see more thoughts on the game as a whole rather than narrow focuses. Probably starting with the Vote count analysis KJ has been mentioning a lot but not actually done.
Proph I need your help here on LW. During my reread I was nodding along with your early mafia-read of him - I thought he was overly defensive, inconsistent, trying pretty hard to seem relaxed/detached, and spent a lot of time agreeing and voting with you despite reading you as mafia. I picked out #230 as a broad "let's look at the low posters" very soon after you cased him in #181. Even in D2 while there's been more engagement he's been holding back waiting for results of this "game" which I'm very unimpressed by because needing to wait for everyone to answer is a great way to stall out when you have lurkers.
But, Proph, you've switched your read to pretty much ride or die town and I need you to help me because I don't get it. I get that you read him from a town mindset and it fit, and I can see some positives like it sounds like he's talking without a filter, and I think that his voting would be less erratic (or at least more tactical) if he was mafia. But I also feel like his votes have been pretty safe and he's tried quite hard to make sure we all know he's having trouble nailing down reads. So, uh, help please?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Overall I'm not wild about coming to basically the same PoE gamestate as the thread at large because for some mysterious reason I am very reluctant to just speed execute the whole consensus PoE pool. So although I'm down to clown on DoTA, I'm really hoping KJ and GF can most moar so we can work out if they're townies who are underwhelming or lurking scum rather than just triple-barreling them. It is also important that we force Proph and Axelrod to keep up their engagement so they can't coast on early game effort posts.
Vote DoTArchon
Pretty safe reads post here, townreading the obvious town while putting his potential buddy in the PoE/null section. The thing that's weirding me out here is that he's giving both GF and KJ a chance to redeem themselves by saying to GF "768 is a first step" and to KJ "start with this VCA".
Quote from Ecophagy »
I actually agreed that Osie's early read wall was a big red flag and I'd have pushed him for it if I'd been in the game. It is reasonable on the surface to retract to Osie read on reveal because the read wall a core component but Grape mentioned seeing Osie get "raked over the coals" for making one in another game. Grape did promise a reevaluation when he unvoted but it doesn't look like he ever did which is at best lazy. Moving over to his next scum read (you) is at least consistent.
I think it's slightly +town. The full reevalaution would have been much more so since without it the unvote could be tactical, but Grape had enough of a case in #290 that he could have easily stuck to his Osie vote as mafia if he'd wanted. Similarly the vote on Proph came at a time where both KJ and DoTA were softer wagons - I don't see why he would as mafia pick a fight with someone who agrees with him that Osie/GJ is not-mafia.
Slightly townreads Grape here. Will have to see his progression.
Quote from Ecophagy »
Speaking of KJ, I want to give #941 town points for looking at the game holistically and ending up with some...unusual reads. But the logic is really flimsy (as Grape has already pointed out) and it's missing the possible scenario that the mafia are all in the PoE and can't post enough to get out. Probably because the most likely team in that case is DoTA and KJ. So if KJ really believes that the game state means there's mafia in Proph/LW/Axelrod then I would really like to see some research to work out which one rather than picking softest option LW out of a hat. An option that KJ is immediately backing down from in the face of conflict.
Also slightly townreads KJ here, but then immediately backs down on it because he says that the logic is "really flimsy". Also gives the answer key to KJ here.
@KJ are you ever going to do your end of D1 VCA?
OK so we broadly feel the same way that KJ is kind of disconnected but doing his own thing is not actively wolfy for him. I wouldn't call it a slap in the face, but I would absolutely like more support of the world view he's pulled out of thin air. Also I did mean KJ backing down was scummy - I definitely don't like him floating this holistic system to avoid the current thread and bailing on it as soon as it get flak.
Not exactly sure if he shades KJ like this if he's buddies with him. Here's another shade attempt:
@KJ I don't really get why you've gone "here is a possible world based on game flow" then basically completely moved away from it when challenged/some counter evidence has been presented. And then you're not really doing anything about it. I'd expect you to be thinking more "here's my world view, let's check it against my reads and D1 VCA. Oh maybe I'm wrong about LW what does that mean for my world view?"
Your actions are all just disconnected and it's hard to not see them as doing Things To Look Town as opposed to trying to solve the game by using your tools together.
Quote from Killjoy »
Eco I'm trying to play the game on a few fronts.
Quote from Ecophagy »
But, are you? Or rather, you have presnted a few fronts (early NKA pairs, proposed VCA, verifying Axel's Cantrip read, the recent "game flow"). But you've not tried to unify any of these tools - I would expect you to be trying to build one coherent world view, not one disconnected world view per front.
Also kinda reads as unaligned tbh.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Proph just keeps coming back to scum for me. There just is an undercurrent of agenda to a lot of what he's doing. The Osie clear and urging to reveal the identity. The utterly bizarre in retrospect scum read and reversal on DV. The super eager to kill me to being more or less fine with me on D2. The complete focus on Dota before the last couple of hours. Just feels like he's pushing the game where he wants it to be rather than following what he's reading.
Quote from Ecophagy »
uh, what? If you're going to say things are "agenday" you have to explain what the scum agenda is. Because I'm reading those events essentially completely the opposite to you because I can't come up with a reason for mafia-Proph to have done them. If Proph was pushing the game where he wanted there were paths of significantly lower resistance he could have taken.
Kind of a neutral retort towards Grape, and also another attempt to dunk on KJ.
Day 3.. gonna take things with more of a grain of salt and figure out what the scum's plan was going into that Day. Still think the hypothesis of Eco/Grape converging towards KJ as the final mislunch is correct but we'll see.
@KJ Do you still believe in your "game flow" read?
Quote from KJ »
Eco: I have no confidence that it's actually a good tell, since its basically a feeling I had, but I'd certainly like it to be a thing.
It would pretty much mean the scum team is exactly you/Wisp but IDK if I could prove that theory at all.
@LW: I lumped KJ and GF together because if Proph is town, then it has to be exactly KJ and GF, so it doesn't really matter which is worse. But I totally agree that KJ is scummier, that's why I was asking him yesterDay about unifying his theories: because I felt that KJ had been using theory to create many possible worlds that had contradictions but hadn't been trying to unify them at all the way I would have expected town KJ to. I have been trying to give him some rope rather than just outright accuse him because KJ was much more likely to answer questions than DoTA was.
In fact, since Proph/Grape is a very unlikely team, KJ pretty much has to be Mafia here regardless of how strong the case is on him.
So, sorry I posted "just" facts at the start of the Day, but we are fundamentally on the same side here. Just trying to work out if Proph or Grape is the last bad guy.
Definitely feels like Eco is trying to prepare KJ as the final mislunch as opposed to bussing his buddy.
Quote from Killjoy »
@Eco: Why does Grape/Proph not make sense? What about Grape Wisp? Or Wisp Proph? Why am I scum?
GF/Proph is unlikely because I don't think scum-GF's strategy would be to spend the whole game trying to bus his senior (or at least more active) partner. Grape/Wisp because I think Wisp is town. Wisp/Proph because their interactions would be an unbelieveable and unnecesary level of scum theatre, espcially compared to how the interacted as buddies in the Throne of Lies game.
But that you don't know all this makes you look pretty desperate - or do you have some counter argument or behavioural evidence for one of these teams?
Lol
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Eco's walls on Proph and me are fine. I just don't have the time to dig into them right now but like I can't point to any massive red flags at a glance. And his little back and forth with Wisp about my EoD1 feels natural-ish, but like he kind of has to be scum here I think. I'll try to get back into this a bit more in depth but today is a bit busy and with Proph now looking like he might actually be town the game kind of feels easy. Wisp is never scum so if Proph is legit then it's solved.
Putting all the dead townies on ignore and only having to read flipped scum + KJ and GF is broken.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
@Proph You seem eager to get out of RVS, is this a new thing for you or am I misremembering your MO.
I still can't really get past this question. Grapefruit, you /saw/ my wolfgame in Snow White, where I did the stupid "popping bottles" thing and started things off way too early. Why did you ask me this question when you saw me effectively end RVS super early in Snow White?
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
First off I know that the game is young but you pushing a scum read off of something as minor as a change in RVS behavior feels very out of character for you.
HOW is it very out of character for me? What games were you using to base this comparison off of?
Quote from Cantripmancer »
It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ.
Still just trying to figure out here if this is Cantrip knowing that KJ is town and is easily to apply a townread on him for that, or if he's scum and this is Cantrip trying to defend him pre-emptively. I feeeeeeeel like Cantrip doesn't want to have a against-the-grain townread on KJ because it would make him look bad if KJ flipped before him?
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
And there go my good feelings from the Wisp pivot. The pivot itself is definitely town indicative but where is the reevaluation of the rest of the game. It's just a complete upheaval in how he's viewing the game but the only change in prospective is to add wisp to the town block. Just feels off to me. Bleh.
How was I supposed to re-evaluate the rest of the game with the Wisp pivot? Did you expect me to actually re-evaluate everything when it was Day 1 and most people hadn't geared up to post by then?
I'm just trying to play devil's advocate myself here and figure out if there's any world where KJ is a wolf, because I've been leaning hard on GF scum for the majority of Yesterday and most of Today, and it's pretty hard to fully detach myself from that mindset.
Generally Grape's macro has been better than KJ's, but KJ's micro has been better. But overall in terms of a birds eye view, I just can't get past the fact that GF has no wolf pelts and pretty much just tunneled Osie and me all game. I really don't think that town GF would have just been stuck in the mud. I'll reread the MU game (Tarot Mafia) to see if he's the same or different.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
That's fair. I still think the slot has a decent chance to be scum. Less than I did before I knew the cross was Osie but still not zero. Especially since GJ's not scum with Proph and Proph's wall was howling.
This post still reads as bad to me lol
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Thanks, I'll look for them next time I iso him. And I'm don't have a strong opinion on GJ yet it's really almost all carry over from Osie but I don't really care right now because Proph is probably a wolf and GJ and Proph aren't aligned. Proph never handles Osie's identity the way he does as buddies. Or really any of their interactions at all. Or especially Proph's wall which has a feel of trying to cover up for TMI.
I still don't really understand the thought process here
Grapefruit says that he thought the slot still has a decent chance to be a wolf, but then he transitions into "GJ's not scum with Proph and Proph's wall is howling". And then he continues with the fact that GJ is not scum because he thinks I am. So why did he say the second sentence exactly? Grape, can you enlighten me?
I still don't really think that KJ re-evaluates on DV for literally no reason if he's a wolf? Like, why would you do that?
GF's EoD1 still looks decent for him minus the whole "legacy time" thing. I keep bringing that up bc it's so jarring. I also don't really understand why in his quoted post makes him think that DV thinks GJ is town.
Quote from DV »
Really don't want to vote grape...
But CFD onto KJ looks like out of the question. I really have no desire to do this again in 24 hours.
- GF really does not have a lot of content. I liked #66 for an against the grain LW town read. Similarly in #543 GF votes Proph in contrast to many easier wagons (GJ, DoTA, KJ) and it was a doubling down of an existing slightly dangerous read. The major problem is that GF hasn't done much else D2 other than just chip at Proph and make some fencesitting reads without voting anywhere. So he's either Mafia who's just clinging to a vanity vote or town in a tunnel who need to look back at the macro game. I think #768 is the latter direction but that's only a first step
- KJ I can broadly see what Axel is getting at in #842. KJ doesn't have a lot but the nuggets he does have are OK. I'm less high on the early NKA calls because I think they are very easy to present as content while also being useless. Agree also that KJ could have easily voted Crossbell early (countered by KJ joining that wagon in #524 specifically as heat was building on KJ). KJ feels peripheral but more in a manner where he doing his own thing in his own way rather than deliberately avoiding interaction. I guess like GF I need to see more thoughts on the game as a whole rather than narrow focuses. Probably starting with the Vote count analysis KJ has been mentioning a lot but not actually done.
I hate how these reads are basically the same. Just like a decent evaluation of both, but Eco's giving both of them outs to impress him here.
Quote from Ecophagy »
I actually agreed that Osie's early read wall was a big red flag and I'd have pushed him for it if I'd been in the game. It is reasonable on the surface to retract to Osie read on reveal because the read wall a core component but Grape mentioned seeing Osie get "raked over the coals" for making one in another game. Grape did promise a reevaluation when he unvoted but it doesn't look like he ever did which is at best lazy. Moving over to his next scum read (you) is at least consistent.
I think it's slightly +town. The full reevalaution would have been much more so since without it the unvote could be tactical, but Grape had enough of a case in #290 that he could have easily stuck to his Osie vote as mafia if he'd wanted. Similarly the vote on Proph came at a time where both KJ and DoTA were softer wagons - I don't see why he would as mafia pick a fight with someone who agrees with him that Osie/GJ is not-mafia.
Here he's giving himself another opportunity to townread Grape.
Quote from Killjoy »
I actually don't hate Wisps response to me though. Maybe my read is wrong
This post also feels legit
Quote from Ecophagy »
Speaking of KJ, I want to give #941 town points for looking at the game holistically and ending up with some...unusual reads. But the logic is really flimsy (as Grape has already pointed out) and it's missing the possible scenario that the mafia are all in the PoE and can't post enough to get out. Probably because the most likely team in that case is DoTA and KJ. So if KJ really believes that the game state means there's mafia in Proph/LW/Axelrod then I would really like to see some research to work out which one rather than picking softest option LW out of a hat. An option that KJ is immediately backing down from in the face of conflict.
Quote from Ecophagy »
@KJ are you ever going to do your end of D1 VCA?
Quote from Ecophagy »
OK so we broadly feel the same way that KJ is kind of disconnected but doing his own thing is not actively wolfy for him. I wouldn't call it a slap in the face, but I would absolutely like more support of the world view he's pulled out of thin air. Also I did mean KJ backing down was scummy - I definitely don't like him floating this holistic system to avoid the current thread and bailing on it as soon as it get flak.
I feeeeeeeeeel like Eco doesn't post this last part if he's scum with KJ. It feels like a dunk and unnecessary shade.
Quote from Killjoy »
I'm not backing down because conflict, I'm backing down because I've played with Wisp a fair bit and his jumping on me for not townreading him and Proph isn't something scum Wisp tends to do. He's not the type to think that he's being the paragon of towniness as scum, nor would he start a fight to try to change my opinion like that.
And I've just been wondering if this gamesize will produce good VCA honestly. It's what I normally gravitate to but this game is really small and has much less info.
I'll still try it, but I'm wondering if it won't produce much.
Again this is confirmation bias, but Eco's giving a chance for KJ to clear himself/look better and he just doesn't take it. He never does the vote analysis that Eco keeps suggesting. I feel like Eco would poke KJ in scumchat to do it, or KJ would have delivered on the VCA to make himself and Eco look good.
Quote from Ecophagy »
@KJ I don't really get why you've gone "here is a possible world based on game flow" then basically completely moved away from it when challenged/some counter evidence has been presented. And then you're not really doing anything about it. I'd expect you to be thinking more "here's my world view, let's check it against my reads and D1 VCA. Oh maybe I'm wrong about LW what does that mean for my world view?"
Your actions are all just disconnected and it's hard to not see them as doing Things To Look Town as opposed to trying to solve the game by using your tools together.
This feels like a dunk for dunk's sake moreso than distancing I /feeeeeeel/?
Quote from KJ »
Eco I'm trying to play the game on a few fronts.
this doesn't feeeeeeel like a buddy/buddy interaction?
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
That leaves Eco and KJ. Going to sort them. Eco has made a good inital impression on me but not enough to really get anywhere yet. KJ deciding to try and push Wisp in his 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf theory is definitely standing out to me right about now.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
KJ
Prophylaxis
Vote: Proph
I think this post is pretty wolfy ngl
He's giving Eco kind of a pass here while giving himself license to go after me and KJ and tie us as a team.
Quote from Ecophagy »
But, are you? Or rather, you have presnted a few fronts (early NKA pairs, proposed VCA, verifying Axel's Cantrip read, the recent "game flow"). But you've not tried to unify any of these tools - I would expect you to be trying to build one coherent world view, not one disconnected world view per front.
Again this feels like chaining a KJ mislunch once DoTA is dead moreso than "I'm gearing up to bus my buddy"
Quote from GF »
Definitely prefer this over Dota and I think I prefer it over Eco. Dota isn't buddied with Proph as I've said before. His reevaluation today doesn't mean as much because he's already been called out on it. As for Eco his heavy interactions with Proph don't strike me as W/W stuff. Feels like Eco is genuinely trying to figure Proph out despite having him as a town read. Time to actually read the walls and reply to stuff.
blurgh
don't like how he ties his scumread on me into an excuse to townread Eco here
Yeah and here is Grapefruit going deep into analyzing KJ/most likely pushing him as the game winning mislunch:
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
More than a little shade sent my way. Scum love to make these sort of second degree pushes. KJ is normally the type to question whatever catches his fancy but this one raises my eyebrow. Because he didn't really flag my RVS vote on his own only to suggest that Crossie should maybe suspect me for it.
326, 331, and 333 for what starts off as a probing question but fizzles into a meaty softball of "you're not scummy but why aren't you playing better?" I realize this is heavy confirmation bias from me but it definitely is a point in favor them being buddies.
475 is a readswall and again I mostly think it works for a buddy with Proph world. His town read of Proph is very ethereal compared to his other town read on Axel and his scum reads are in line with what I'd expect for a him/Proph world. The DV read in particular makes sense. Chainsawing a read on his buddy and agreeing with Proph's early read on Wisp. If his reads are that aligned with Proph then I'm surprised that it didn't factor into the town read.
Just got to the body pillow post and I have A no clue why Proph thinks it should have been AI and B no clue why Wisp thought KJ was robotic all game.
523 and 524 is a progression that is ummmmmm forced? If 523 is a a preview after doing the ISO it doesn't really match the tone of 524 and if it was excitement that lead to the ISO then why is the ISO so tepid and KJ not really disappointed at not finding his smoking gun?
The end of day is inscrutable. I want to read into it but it's not worth doing.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Onto Day 2
First post that feels worth diving into is his ISO on Cantrip. And it's solid. It's reasonably in depth and internally coherent. So far it's the strongest point in favor of town!KJ I've seen.
820 isn't alignment indicative at all but I disagree with it on a theory basis. Funny that he's focusing on town clearing Proph now but probably not AI. Despite my confirmation bias screaming that it is.
Then we have the game flow 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf stuff. Which still just feels agenda based to me. The lack of explanation of why the game didn't feel dominated (lack of consensus) that didn't match up with reality (there has been a ton of consensus this game) just is utterly bizarre. So bizarre it's hard to paint as purely scummy but the use of it to push at Wisp before eventually backing down after heavy pushback is a red flag.
1063 is another red flag on the 1 high/1 low thing because he mentions he's focusing on it because it's the higher win% for mafia. It means it's not really an attempt to solve because as town you are just trying to figure out what you think is happening not trying to guess what the mafia's optimal path is and basing your solve upon that. Really highlights the lack of a solving mindset.
A bit later in the day we see the start of his pivot away from suspecting Proph before this revelation that lead to the forthcoming ISO. It's first noticable when he muses me/Wisp/Dota were scum pushing him. Then he muses that 1085 never comes from scum.
And from there it's just statement of intent to clear Proph and his one bigger post answering questions. I found nothing at all that convinced me he can't be scum. Saw nothing that makes me think he and Proph are unaligned. Saw a decent amount of scummy stuff. I am still pretty convinced it's exactly Proph/KJ.
Quote from GF »
Why can't this be easy..... Time to re-reevaluate Proph. Him not thunderdoming me here is such an insane play to make here if he's scum that I don't believe it. Now I just want to vote KJ here I think and figure out Eco/Proph tomorrow. Still planning to read Eco today but man......
And to answer your question I never rolled scum on MU. Both my champs games were town. As was my The Thing and Tarot games.
Quote from GF »
@Proph if you're scum here that is the craziest play I have ever seen. I know you're still working on your ISO's but what do you make of KJ spending all day promising to try and clear you? I guess getting consumed by TMI like you said but that is an approach to try to avoid losing not to try and win.
If you're town here both KJ and Eco defending you when Wisp and I were working up to a vote is just wild stuff.
Quote from GF »
Eco's walls on Proph and me are fine. I just don't have the time to dig into them right now but like I can't point to any massive red flags at a glance. And his little back and forth with Wisp about my EoD1 feels natural-ish, but like he kind of has to be scum here I think. I'll try to get back into this a bit more in depth but today is a bit busy and with Proph now looking like he might actually be town the game kind of feels easy. Wisp is never scum so if Proph is legit then it's solved.
This is where I do not think that GF is being genuine about tunnelling me. I feel like he's happy that I am gearing up with him on the KJ misexecute and he's happy to stop pressuring me if we all agree on scum KJ. Also I would expect someone who was actually tunnelled on me to not flip a dime based on one post.
Quote from GF »
At this point KJ has to know his goose is cooked and is just anti-spewing. If he was truly trying to figure Proph out he would have done more than just use D1 and say his transitions are honest without further elaboration. D2 and D3 is where the nuance on Proph is, but KJ simply has no interest.
I will be voting in about 6 hours.
I feel like this is Eco just going in for the kill here as opposed to bussing. I feel like if he was actually scum with KJ he would be weighing GF more as an option and casing him more heavily in order to get the W yesterday, right?
Quote from Killjoy »
Oh, and @Proph: You were saying that Eco should have been confirmed scum from my perspective instead of just "has to be, right?" but that's not the case, as I haven't eliminated Wisp/Grape worlds yet. He could still have been town.
FTR my gut is leaning Wisp/Eco based on how they're handling my slot. It's not for the high low thing either, though that may actually be a thing I have no real way to prove it. It's like a blind guy trying to point at a rainbow. There's just no way to know I'm right.
And I feeeeeel like if KJ was actually scum then he would engage in this crossbus with Eco, right? Because that's how you do the SQUEEZE PLAY - commit to bussing each other in xylo so that you come into f3 looking good.
And like I don't think KJ/Eco just come into f5 with the intention to townread me and Wisp and then fight each other. It makes more sense imo that Grape and Eco are scum and they've been coalescing around getting KJ as the final mislunch while working through the game from different ways. And they don't even spend a whole lot of time interacting, while Eco has a lot of posts late Day 2 where he's essentially just shading KJ.
I'll wait for you guys to post, but I'm leaning towards succumbing to confirmation bias and thinking it's just Grape.
There's a part of me who is very scared to lose to slanker KJ who essentially had very little impact throughout the game, and I can hear DV just lecturing me about how I screwed up and that I should have re-evaluated because I wasn't NK'd, but the evidence points to Grape
Also not to do KJ's work for him but I gave y'all four days to post. That's quite a bit of time, especially considering we knew what this xylo was likely going to be on Saturday (one of me or Wisp would have been left alive)
- Grape has had a continual tunnel on me for Days 1/2/3 and was focusing on Osie/GJ for most of Day 1. He later pivoted to a me/KJ team when it was obvious that he couldn't get me mislunched, but his reads have been very flat. That's the definition of static progression right there. He never really had any change of heart or major reads changes. It's always just been Osie for most of Day 1, then when I made Osie reveal himself it was me. Then Day 2 rolled around and he was pretty floaty for the beginning of Day 2, but soon refocused on me and to KJ. He focused his worldview on the assumption that I was going to flip scum and based most of his reads around that assumption, even though he didn't really try that hard to get me lunched. Like he basically used his tunnel on me as an excuse to look like he was doing something and he never bothered to really debate or engage with me like DV did - I think because he knew he'd get smoked. Even yesterday in xylo he bemoaned his ability to not get me lunched but quickly pivoted to KJ. I think town Grape, if he genuinely had that scumread on me, would try WAY harder to get me lunched and in general be more active and engaged with the game. Or would have townread me, and we would have worked together!
- Grapefruit and Eco BARELY interacted with each other. Grape asked a softball question to Eco, Eco replied. Eco did the same, Grape replied. But they largely kept out of each other's way. Grape was on team Proph/KJ and he cleared Eco because he didn't think it would makes sense with me as scum, but he never really went out of his way to interact with Eco. Eco, on the other hand, forced himself into believing it was KJ/Grape, and did try to convince me that it was Grape, but his primary focus throughout most of Yesterday was KJ (and he was forced to adopt that team because he boxed himself in). Grape said that Eco's walls were "fine" Yesterday but didn't really elaborate or analyse Eco in depth like he did with KJ. The game makes sense if KJ/Eco were approaching the game from different viewpoints but tried to end the game Yesterday by converging on KJ.
- Eco dunked on KJ a lot throughout the game in a way that makes me think that he was trying to set KJ up as the final mislunch as opposed to distancing. I feel like Eco taking the chance letting this game go to final 3 with either me alive or Last alive is too risky - he would have tried to end it in f5. If Eco was distancing, then I feel like KJ would have allowed himself to gain some towncred by answering Eco's questions, but he never did that. Like, I see very little reason for Eco to set KJ up for a bus here when he allowed himself the freedom to go more after Grape because Grape was tunneling me at the time, but Eco never really did that. This is kind of tautological logic but the way Yesterday was set up didn't feel like a crossbus was going on.
- The scum's game plan doesn't make sense if KJ/Eco are scum. Like, what are the scum going to do, crossbus and then have to fight in f3? Eco essentially boxed himself into voting KJ, and KJ if he was buddies with Eco should have gotten the memo and focused on Eco a LOT earlier. Instead, he just kinda floated unaware-ly. KJ and Eco essentially boxed themselves into voting themselves Yesterday if they're both scum, and that's not really a winning play as wolf. No, the winning play is to set KJ up as the final mislunch while you and your buddy convince me and Wisp that KJ is scum, and that's how Yesterday kinda felt. Also, Eco's posts towards EoD when I was re-evaluating had that touch of panic in them - he felt pretty flat and consistent when he was focusing on KJ.
- To top things off, KJ isn't really even that scummy. He's had a fair number of micro towntells throughout the game (him asking me if I'm rusty, him saying imagine if he caught scum this game, him saying that he couldn't leave a detailed answer to Wisp's game when if he's a wolf he just snap answers his two scum and four town) but for the most part I can sorta believe him in that he's been approaching the game from a super uninformed angle - a type of way that I think would be difficult to emulate as a wolf. I feel like it's more likely he's just town and disengaged. As scum I feel like he'd know more about the actual gamestate at least as opposed to constantly being clueless like he has been.
If I'm wrong, hopefully people see where I'm coming from at least. I know some of these points are kinda conf-biasy (like the third, there's nothing really stopping Eco from distancing from KJ... but I don't think he would do that gun to head as it's a play not to lose line as opposed to playing to win)
The only world where KJ could be scum is if he's super disengaged with the game thread, and isn't even responding to his buddy Eco in daychat. But the game just makes more sense with Grape being the last scum. I know he's a better townie than this, is what it comes down to. I don't think he rands town and spends the entire game just railing after me. That's such an agenda-driven push.
I'll wait for you both to post because you guys have barely posted this f3 but that's where I stand on things atm.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
also i feel like.... grape would be more excited/post more if he's town, right now
like we just dunked on a wolf right? he would work with me and try to turn this game from a bad end into a good one
don't want to prod on RL things but grape's stretches of absence unnerve me because it reminds me strongly of what i do as scum (post well for a stretch then peace from the thread for a bit)
Ok so first few posts of mine were not important. RVS and complaining about Curse. This is followed by some serious evaluatory questions to DV and DotA in 150 and 267 respectively, then a somewhat jokey question to Wisp about entrances in 309.
Then comes the post where I ask Cross to consider whther or not the second vote on an RVS wagon is relevent.
For jumping a second vote on a town player before that player entered the thread.
On a scale of RVS to Final 3 how serious is this vote?
Firmly RVS.
Actually, have you considered it seriously? This game size is 3/4 of the usual size. From a theory standpoint, is the second vote on a hypothetical town player in RVS actually be more significant than not?
It might actually be.
This was based on the fact that in a 12 player game, the third vote on an RVS wagon is sometimes relevent, and I was postulating whether the second would be similarly relevent in this game size.
331 is where I decide you are town for how you're playing. In the post I asked you if you were feeling rusty because your questions felt, I guess disconnected? Like you were obviously trying to figure out the game but you were just kind of questioning everything in order to find SOMETHING relevent. I think that's why I used to do it anyway, which I noted that it reminded me of me.
475 was a slightly lazy reads list which scumreads Wisp and DV, saying that :The two people I think currently are scum are DV and Wisp. DV has aggressively jumped on at least Proph for minutia and has also been hedgy in a bad way. Wisp I specifically think is scum for his progression on me. He keeps maintaining (353, 417, 432) that I've been really null. I feel like it's not just an opinion of his, he's trying to convince others of it, possibly to counteract the townleans people seem to have developed on me. He's not scumreading me as of now, so why is he pushing so hard that other's should not be townreading me? I think he knows I'm town and misyeetable so he's trying to preserve that."
516 is me trying to explain why I dislike Wisp's "extremely null" designation. The crux of that argument was basically I felt like people were tentitively townreading me and Wisp was trying to push a new narritive about me just being really null and not town. I did this with a longwinded paragraph about your Wisp bodypillow et al. You may remember it.
It's been said that 522 was a natural thought by me. It was, but I'm biased. The reason I posted this was obviously because I'm usually garbage at catching scum/commiting to the read.
523/524 was a response to Wisp asking my to ISO Cross, like I said.
I'm actually not sure what post of yours I was referring to in 627. I looked and couldn't find one that immediately made sense
In 629 I was softening on my scumread of DV, thinking maybe his aggression wasn't malicious, but he was just overly (and more importantly, genuinely) emotional. Also not in an agenda driven way, which malicious implies.
I end up voting GJ because I had thought Cross was scum, and GJ didn't really improve my read on the slot.
Short convo with Wisp, followed by an attempt to get into the game by ISOing Cantrip. I conclude he's likely scum.
In 485 I had some questions for DotA but one of them was nonsensical since I misread a post and based a question off of that.
941 is just... 100% wrong. It's actually kind of embarassing. I even discount Grape for having too many scumreads. And the gameflow thing was just... misguided to say the least.This is followed by Wisp and Grape questioning me on it. Wisp calls it BS and questions my reads, Grape asks what I would look for in a game dominated by scum.
Side note: now that Wisp is dead he is probably 100% cursing me in the spec chat now that he knows I was town the whole time.
956 is when I start thinking Wisp might be town again because during our discussion his response to me was townie.
in 977, Eco pokes me for not following through on my VCA, which I was reconsidering due to game size. He also accused me of backing down from a fight with Wisp, which wasn't true.
In response to Wisp's game: "I guess Proph wolf, wisp town, grape town, axel town, dota town eco scum." which was primarily based on recent reads and my high/low read which was wrong.
1063 is where I try to explain to YOU about high/low. I eliminate most other worlds here as well. Slightly later I explain why I landed on you/Eco as the team.
I appretntly never officially said why I disliked DotA. I just kinda voted him at the end of the day. The reason was just "I read his ISO and wasn't impressed". I think I said that before though?
Then is a conversation with Wisp where I was getting annoyed with him. I'm sure you remember it.
I attempt to towncase you in 1306 because eliminating you from the PoE would help solve the game significantly
Then I make some posts trying to show Grape is scum...
Aaaaaand that's everything that I've really done.
So, a summary!: I think you would think I'm town because I don't have a scum agenda. I have been very disconnected with this game due to time constraints, but I feel like the posts I do make aren't helping the scum team. I believe you could see where I'm coming from for the most part. There's also something to be said (as you pointed out) that Eco was trying to dunk me for a lot of Yesterday, and you would be correct to think that he's not doing that as a Hail Mary trying to win. A part of my case would also be that I've made some posts that Grape is scum with Eco.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
You said you thought DV was scum in 475, and you said that you hated his post where he voted me in 493. But in post 629/633 you no longer think he's scum. What changed during that timeframe? Like what posts from DV's make you think he was being genuinely emotional and not malicious.
(Also wow are these post links screwed up)
You tried to remove me from the PoE completely but you said this earlier. Why did you contradict your process?
I'm not seeing why you think I should see you as e facto town and why Axel should be completely eliminated from the PoE. I never fully eliminate people from the PoE unless there's mechanics involved because nonmechanical stuff is highly subjective.
As for your summary: Yes, I think I've given you a lot of room to maneuver as either alignment. I'm trying to figure out if continuing to give you room will win us the game or I'll just be MEGA POCKETED by you or something.
Also would love to see Grape show up sometime in the next 24 hours or so.
Let's examine the gamestate assuming that KJ is scum and Ecophagy was trying to distance/bus from him in f5.
- First assumption is that Grape was tunneling on me all game but shifted to an actually correct target in KJ late Day 2 and Day 3. So town Grape here was just never able to get there on me.
- Scum were majorly lurking for Day 1. I'll feel really silly if this is the case, because KJ/Cantrip were the lowest posters on Day 1/2 aside from DoTA I'm pretty sure.
- Cantrip was trying to slide KJ in his townreads by saying that his 150 was classic town KJ, and he thinks that the sharpness of his insight comes from town KJ.
- Killjoy calls Cantrip a Tricksy Hobbit and tries to distance/throw him under the bus when he cased Cantrip. However, if he truly wanted to get bus cred, then he would vote Cantrip/Eco there? Right? And try to fully commit to the bus, in order to get towncred?
- Killjoy tries to hop onto the GJ wagon after "scumreading" two townies, DV and Wisp.
- I have to say that Grape is still giving me a mixed feeling about his EoD. Like, his stuff where he thinks he's dead kinda comes off as genuine and.. it would be solid wolf play to fake that as scum. The other thing that I'm kinda reading into (but I shouldn't) is the nightkill. DV was offed randomly N1 for saying that Cantrip/KJ was the team; would scum Grape really kill someone that was defending him? And I could see KJ/Cantrip playing the wine game I think, and killing the person who thought they were aligned?
- Eco was giving KJ a lot of rope and a lot of opportunities for Eco to reverse his read on KJ. He was also giving Grape these opportunities though.
- So in the world where KJ is town, Eco is trying to distance from him while pushing town DOTA. Eco continues to engage with him about how he's playing the game but shading him in the process
Quote from Eco »
Also I did mean KJ backing down was scummy - I definitely don't like him floating this holistic system to avoid the current thread and bailing on it as soon as it get flak.
Quote from Eco »
Your actions are all just disconnected and it's hard to not see them as doing Things To Look Town as opposed to trying to solve the game by using your tools together.
Quote from Eco »
But, are you? Or rather, you have presnted a few fronts (early NKA pairs, proposed VCA, verifying Axel's Cantrip read, the recent "game flow"). But you've not tried to unify any of these tools - I would expect you to be trying to build one coherent world view, not one disconnected world view per front.
- I have to say that in the world where KJ is scum he's kinda been pocketing me all game and... it's working? Idk.
- In 1174 Eco basically forces himself to tunnel KJ by saying that because me/Grape is a very unlikely team, then KJ has to be mafia here. So again he's locking himself in to going to f3 here or to make KJ look good if he flips scum.
Eco again dunks/distances from KJ here:
Quote from Eco »
GF/Proph is unlikely because I don't think scum-GF's strategy would be to spend the whole game trying to bus his senior (or at least more active) partner. Grape/Wisp because I think Wisp is town. Wisp/Proph because their interactions would be an unbelieveable and unnecesary level of scum theatre, espcially compared to how the interacted as buddies in the Throne of Lies game.
But that you don't know all this makes you look pretty desperate - or do you have some counter argument or behavioural evidence for one of these teams?
More dunking/distancing here.
Quote from GF »
The only thing giving me pause with KJ is that everyone seems to be on board with him being scum. In F5 like this I'd have thought scum would be trying to win toDay but maybe KJ is such a lost cause that Proph is just going to try and win tomorrow.
Quote from GF »
Wait nevermind. I'm an idiot and forgot how ties worked. The hammer makes sense in that world regardless. I forgot ties ended the day without a death and not a random result.
Quote from GF »
Yeah, it's just throwing me that no one is really even half heartedly attempting to defend KJ. But I guess his buddy (Proph) assumes he's as good as gone, and to be fair Proph has been promising a reread on KJ and not given it yet so it could have been coming and I just got weirded out before it happened. Still meaning to look through KJ's ISO today but going to be watching game 6 of Bucks/Suns so it will be slow going. If you have anything you want me to look at just ask.
I have to say that these chain of posts do look good for GF. Him hesitating as to why everyone's on board with executing KJ is a good look.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Eco is completely invisible though. Which isn't a good look at all.
This is kinda a dunk on his scum buddy but I can sorta see Eco kind of playing up his anger here to distance between themselves more?
Quote from Eco »
Pretty bloody harsh to be called invisible for having a real life. I'm not going into details, but I've been dealing with some things more important than a mafia game.
Quote from Eco »
Are you really expecting me to be an emotional player here? KJ just is boxed out scum. Maybe I'd be more excited if I wasn't inexplicably being listed as his buddy and having to gear up for a big F3 fight.
And yeah Eco keeps bashing on KJ.
---
My conclusion is... it's so hard to read into anything that happened in that f5 because I feel like Eco may have went into antispew at some point. He's definitely skilled enough to seed misguided interactions as scum.
I feel like if Eco was bussing, then that means that KJ just wasn't very active in scum chat or wasn't listening to Eco at all, because KJ's responses come off as very disconnected and again, unaware of the game state. Also, Eco's plan that f5 was to try and not to lose as opposed to win, because he didn't go after me, Wisp, or GF at all. He just boxed himself in and voted KJ. He was essentially guaranteeing a scum lunch there as opposed to trying to go for the win. And I feeeeeeel like scum Eco would just go for the win?
I still feel like Cantrip's post is TMI knowing that KJ is town, because he defended DOTA and Osie. But again I'm not sure if he sandwiched a buddy between two townreads..?
I need to reread Pirates to see if GF also had static progression in that game and to see if he is capable of faking his nuance.
I'm second guessing myself sigh. I really do feel like Eco/Grape were going for the W Yesterday, because again I feel that they could potentially convince Wisp or I to vote KJ. That's why they both were casing KJ and leading up to a vote on him,
I have to say that everyone who was NK'd suspected KJ. DV said that Cantrip/KJ was the team. Axel soured on him EoD2. Last was the more likely person to vote for KJ than me.
I'm gonna head to bed and then write out a list of Pros/Cons, then vote. Maybe people will actually show up to play this goddamn game instead of me echoing into the void by myself
I think it's like 60% Grape 40% KJ atm but we'll see. I'm trying to be even-keeled and evaluate all of the evidence objectively but my human brain loves playing tricks on me. The NK thing is spooky but again, not sure how much I should be reading into that. It's just that.. did Eco plan to go down during f5 and then have me waffle on Grape because Eco intentionally didn't interact with him? Did he plan all this out? How was he going to win in a Eco/(me or Wisp)/Grape f3? Was he gonna use his arguing of pushing KJ to get there when Grape also pushed KJ quite heavily?
Will reiterate: whomever the townie is here, you're making it difficult for me to get there on you.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
This is a post near the end of D1. I think all the voters on Grape are town, and interestingly all of the scum in this case would be on Proph (which continues to make him town if that's the case). Also all of the unknowns are between Proph and Grape, which makes them less likely a team.
Dota had a few town pings in tone but not enough that I really got there on him. Definitely liked his version of the KJ special where he just did his own thing and chased it down.
Given all the remaining players
tell me in one word, if you think they are a wolf or town, without saying anything else. I don't want an explanation, you can leave that for another post. I just want, town or wolf, mafia or villager, and no nulls.
Proph: wolf
DoTA: wolf
Cantrip: wolf
Wisp: Town
Axelrod: town
KJ: Wolf
Have everyone but Wisp and Axel at slightly above random to be a wolf.
Grape: Explain this progression. Why the wolf on Cantrip when you've barely mentioned him all game up to this point? You've at least mentioned me and things I've done at that point as if you're trying to evauluate me, but you never really said much about Cantrip.
Reading Axel's wall on me and it has reminded me that I need to go reread the end of day. Definitely joining the chorus that the change in opinion on me through the wall just feels incredibly natural. Especially since given my lack of cache Axel could just try to bury me here with little chance of blowback. If he was scum he is A in great position and B definitely does not need to defend me there. Doesn't even feel like he was trying to leave himself a back door to come back to me tomorrow while putting me on the backburner to focus on Dota or Eco toDay.
Need to dive into Eco's entrance a bit deeper but I am trying to figure out the repeated interactions with Proph. The repeated invocation of playing devil's advocate just is pinging me. Proph is in the position of power here and I'm not sure why he's putting the WIFOM out there on his handling of Wisp and Eco's reaction to it. Feels overly defensive while still trying to maintain distance from his actions. Why is proph spilling wine about his own theoretical scum motivations here. Rather than just the more assertive tone he was using at EoD and garnering town reads from DV for, just feels wrong to me.
Okay. I guess I can buy this? Just to play devil's advocate a little more, I'm not sure that I would leave Wisp on the mislunch table as scum given that I had quite a fair bit of pushback in the early game when I called him scum. I think I was the only player to actively scumread him at that stage. But fair, I can buy this line of reasoning.
This is Grape's first real interaction with the slot in a while... and it's about how Proph is scummy?
Proph I need your help here on LW. During my reread I was nodding along with your early mafia-read of him - I thought he was overly defensive, inconsistent, trying pretty hard to seem relaxed/detached, and spent a lot of time agreeing and voting with you despite reading you as mafia. I picked out #230 as a broad "let's look at the low posters" very soon after you cased him in #181. Even in D2 while there's been more engagement he's been holding back waiting for results of this "game" which I'm very unimpressed by because needing to wait for everyone to answer is a great way to stall out when you have lurkers.
But, Proph, you've switched your read to pretty much ride or die town and I need you to help me because I don't get it. I get that you read him from a town mindset and it fit, and I can see some positives like it sounds like he's talking without a filter, and I think that his voting would be less erratic (or at least more tactical) if he was mafia. But I also feel like his votes have been pretty safe and he's tried quite hard to make sure we all know he's having trouble nailing down reads. So, uh, help please?
I have a few qusetions about this Eco, first why did you specifically ask Proph for help reading Wisp? Just because of the fact that he changed his read? I get that you ask a couple questions to him here but it feels like you could ask anyone town reading Wisp. Second what is your actual read? Do you think it's Wisp/Dota? Or are you just not convinced on him one way or another yet?
Here's the next interaction... gonna leave this here and evaluate it all at the same time I suppose.
Axel is never under pressure today. His ISO's have been pretty agendaless and have shown a sort of progression. It's lacking the curiosity that would lock the read in to ride or die but it's at the place where I wouldn't reevaluate him before a F3.
Wisp is just a bit below this for me. He's been mostly himself bouncing around and inconsistent with reads. The only time where there was any whiff of an agenda was at the EoD1 but that's gone again D2 and I'm currently happy to slot him into town.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
KJ
Prophylaxis
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
Proph just keeps coming back to scum for me. There just is an undercurrent of agenda to a lot of what he's doing. The Osie clear and urging to reveal the identity. The utterly bizarre in retrospect scum read and reversal on DV. The super eager to kill me to being more or less fine with me on D2. The complete focus on Dota before the last couple of hours. Just feels like he's pushing the game where he wants it to be rather than following what he's reading.
As a result I don't want Dota to die. Proph is absolutely trying to get him killed. He is clearly the dedicated condemn today and we should not kill him. He's been an absolute wet noodle but he's not scum with Proph and Proph is scum here.
That leaves Eco and KJ. Going to sort them. Eco has made a good inital impression on me but not enough to really get anywhere yet. KJ deciding to try and push Wisp in his 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf theory is definitely standing out to me right about now.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
KJ
Prophylaxis
Vote: Proph
@Grape: Explain your sorting of Eco at this point please? You've had a short conversation with him at this point, as I've noted. What left a good impression? Why is he so low otherwise?
Eco's walls on Proph and me are fine. I just don't have the time to dig into them right now but like I can't point to any massive red flags at a glance. And his little back and forth with Wisp about my EoD1 feels natural-ish, but like he kind of has to be scum here I think. I'll try to get back into this a bit more in depth but today is a bit busy and with Proph now looking like he might actually be town the game kind of feels easy. Wisp is never scum so if Proph is legit then it's solved.
So, Grape's had Eco/Cantrip basically very low in his reads, but never really evaluating him, but despite being low in his reads also never suspecting him. All of his reads are colored by interactions with Proph (who is now cleared town) and are not evaluated on their own merits, but I don't think he gives the same treatment to Canrtip/Eco in that regard.
Condensing my posts on Grape from Yesterday, basically he has bad interactions with Eco.
I feel like I probably don't need to show you more Grape things to show you scum!Grape. Maybe I'll look at Eco to see if I can show partners that way.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
You said you thought DV was scum in 475, and you said that you hated his post where he voted me in 493. But in post 629/633 you no longer think he's scum. What changed during that timeframe? Like what posts from DV's make you think he was being genuinely emotional and not malicious.
(Also wow are these post links screwed up)
You tried to remove me from the PoE completely but you said this earlier. Why did you contradict your process?
I'm not seeing why you think I should see you as e facto town and why Axel should be completely eliminated from the PoE. I never fully eliminate people from the PoE unless there's mechanics involved because nonmechanical stuff is highly subjective.
As for your summary: Yes, I think I've given you a lot of room to maneuver as either alignment. I'm trying to figure out if continuing to give you room will win us the game or I'll just be MEGA POCKETED by you or something.
Also would love to see Grape show up sometime in the next 24 hours or so.
The reason I hated DV's postings was because I took the insane amount of aggression as malice. I eventually reevaluated and decided it might not have been malice and instead been just... getting into the game emotionally. I think it was just it went on long enough to be less likely a tactic and more likely real.
I elininated you because there was enough pointing to town you and its near enough to the end of the game to where eliminations are needed.
Also you really can't take that too literally to mean I will NEVER eliminate anyone nonmechanically because obviously we will evenutally get to a point where there's maybe no mechanics eliminating people and we have 5 people left. Sometimes you gotta make that leap of faith and hope you're right.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Condensing my posts on Grape from Yesterday, basically he has bad interactions with Eco.
I feel like I probably don't need to show you more Grape things to show you scum!Grape. Maybe I'll look at Eco to see if I can show partners that way.
If possible I'd like behavioral evidence that points to Grape being scum. He has a couple of things going for him that I am still not sure if I can overlook.
KILLJOY PROS
- micro towntells (how rusty are you feeling this game, maybe i'll finally catch scum on mtgs, "dont think i can leave a simple answer to this" which probably doesn't enter KJ's brain if he's scum, "Scum know they need me dead, because I'm the best target for them") tldr - stuff that is pretty easy to fake objectively, but I think these types of micro towntells are easier for town to get into the mindset of
- mostly agenda-less and just overall very disconnected from the game. i read some of KJ's past games but he's never been as disconnected as this. on the contrary in both of his scum games he felt quite engaged and posted a lot of walls, but he also was very engaged as town in tarot/80s. so idk with meta
- don't think he randomly re-evals dv and wisp like he does in day 1/day 2. there's no reason for him to do that
- the high/low poster thing is bizarre, but i feel like scum KJ would have tried to use it to push someone or accomplish something. him just randomly putting it out there and doing nothing with it feels more likely to come from town that doesn't know whats going on vs scum to me
- eco dunks on him d2/d3 in a way where it feels like eco was trying to set kj up as the final mislunch moreso than a bus and then trying to staredown at f3.
- also eco's posts after I declared my eco/kj team felt very... calm. like he was pushing the gamestate in the desired direction. he started to panic when i had my epiphany and when i wanted to vote him out. idk if this means anything but i kinda buy it (1284, 1293)
- if kj is scum here then he has to be completely disengaged as scum and not listening to what his scumbuddy eco is posting in scumchat. i find that somewhat unlikely given that kj has scum games where he is pretty engaged
- has a wolf pelt (eco)
KILLJOY CONS
- meta. he's never played this disengaged as town before I feel
- all the NKs kinda point to him since he's offed everyone who has scumread him. kind of paranoid of this even though it's wine at the end
- hasn't really made an impact on the game macro wise
- wrote up a huge case on cantrip but just never voted or pressured eco
- objectively speaking/in a vacuum, his lack of progression and random stances *is* wolfy. but idk, its better than the lockdown agenda-based consistency that gf has had?
GRAPEFRUIT21 PROS
- had a real impact on the game and tried to solve. opener posts have a lot of nuance
- does his "lack of self confidence/crippling doubt" tell a couple of times, which he does more as town
- his eod is both good and bad. good because i think the mindset required to put out reads when you might die at eod is townie. bad because the way he just abruptly re-evaluated and said "legacy time" when he wasn't likely to be lunched eod1 makes me feel like it could all be an act
GRAPEFRUIT21 CONS
- tunnelling me and osie. kinda refuse to believe his reads are that bad, after he sunk the scumteam in tarot. plus agenda/lack of progression etc. i feel like if GF was town we would have tried to work together, and I would have recognized the towniness in him. me/gf/wisp are a hell of a team, and we can pretty much bounce ideas off of one another
- barely interacted with eco. eco barely interacted with him. ditto with cantrip
- feels like eco would try to go for the win in f5 rather than bus his buddy and try to win in f3. he did not really push grape at all and boxed himself into believing kj was scum. i feel like the scum were comfortable with the gamestate, before I had the epiphany that grape was scum. then eco started panicking (cuz we'd realize that i'd lunch him first). i really do think that eco is the type of player to Play to Win vs Playing Not to Lose, and it was quite likely one of wisp or I would have re-evaluated on kj Yesterday
- weird inactivity gaps. this was the thing that made me so nervous, because I feel like town GF would be more invested and more consistent in activity. instead it's just he posts for a couple of times, then dips for like 2-3 days, then does it again. again he's just Not Here for this xylo which makes me think that he's scum who has lost heart/WIM since we lunched Eco Yesterday moreso than town who got excited that we have a chance to win again. if he's town, he has given me nothing over the past one and a half weeks i feel. inb4 he shows up like 2 hours before deadline and starts spamming
Condensing my posts on Grape from Yesterday, basically he has bad interactions with Eco.
I feel like I probably don't need to show you more Grape things to show you scum!Grape. Maybe I'll look at Eco to see if I can show partners that way.
If possible I'd like behavioral evidence that points to Grape being scum. He has a couple of things going for him that I am still not sure if I can overlook.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Dota Welcome to the right side of history. Can you talk about the KJ distancing read though. I'm really confused what you think the significance of it is. KJ is more likely to be town because he pointed out an interaction could be distancing? Are you an MTG player? Because Axel is right that Time Walk and Ancestral really do massively overshadow Timetwister to a massive degree. So if anything I'd put KJ making a point of it more likely to KJ trying to generate an interaction than anything to do with Axel. Now I'm not going to scum read him over it because that would be ridiculous, but I think I'd put it as a tiny unaligned between KJ and Axel if KJ were to flip scum. Think it's entirely meaningless from Axel's side though. His flip would mean nothing towards KJs.
I'm a little biased here but Grape is obviously attempting to weaken DotA's town read on me here by saying the reason he was townreading me was trying to create an interaction between myself and Axel. First of all I am an MTG player but I don't play power, so if there's an obvious Timetwister blacksheeping there I'm not aware of it, but that's subjective. The bolded I kind of have a problem with as well because why would he mention that given the rest of his post there about me and Axel.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
The meta read is actually playing a lot stronger here than I think I realized. Each subsequent post makes me feel like it's more likely who I think it is, and I'm freaking loving it. (Spoiler: I'm probably completely wrong, because I'm almost always wrong on these things, but something something blind squirrel...) I'm also happy with the volume of output. Again, not necessarily town on its own, but in combination with everything, feels indicative to me. The Axel read still doesn't meld with me (nor the DoTa one, tbf), but the meta dive at least lets me see where Cross is coming from.
@Proph I hrrmmmmmm'ed at Cantrip's post because of him saying meta was a big part of his read. Felt very weird to claim a meta read on a suspected identity. Then he gave a bunch of hedging before sticking with the read. Had the potential of TMI.
The second potential important post here, with expanation. He never pursues this read at all.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Reading Crossbell now and it's so many posts. My eyes just want to glaze over it. I have become a dinosaur.
Anyway I still have my same feelings about Crossbell's entrance. If I'm being generous some of the jaggedness could be coming from the roleplay, but it's spikey.
And the rainbow wall is still just rubbing me the wrong way. Like the read on me for example chooses to harp on the second vote when it seems obvious my vote was determined before the game by the cards. But then there does seem to be a reasonable thought process on reacting to my posts. Interestingly though is that it's very staccato. Could be a playstyle thing but each point about my posts is disconnected from the last. For example mentions my question to Wisp looks like busy work but then likes my explanation in #66 with some reservations. Or the emphasis on 69 being unexplained and abrupt before sort of liking my 73 where it's explained. It feels performative but I am not sure if I'm mistaking different style for scummy. To me it feels like busywork because I'd never do an ISO that way and I'd weave back to the earlier posts in my analysis and how the subsequent posts change my opinions of them. The only reason I might is if I was scum just trying to get something to stick to the wall and was writing up every post without thinking about it.
The words on DV have the same sort of staccato element to a lesser degree. But in fairness the read on Wisp is much more fluid.
So the whole thing just feels off to me just on a process level and that's before I get to the reads that just make me squint like the Axel suspicion, Dota getting scum leaned, and the content of the Wisp read which stands out in how hedgey it is compared to everything else.
The spamming with Wisp definitely does feel like an attempt to solve him. Like he clearly knows Wisp and irking Wisp and spamming with him is usually a reliable way to sort him so that's a town indication.
If Crossbell is Osie as people have speculated (I don't want to know the mystery is fun and I am truly awful at guessing Alts going 0'fer in the DLP/MU thing game) then the reads wall is much less of a red flag. 133. Well the reads part of it. I'd have to do a meta dive on Osie to see if the staccato part translates but I'm not going to do a meta dive based upon speculation that I don't really have an opinion on.
The Axel Meta analysis doesn't give me great vibes. It's very arbitrary with the 100 post cut off and fact that in particular 80s feelgood was similarly joking. I get that it was about the switch flipping to serious but it doesn't go into the context of the game at all. The comparison to Feel Good 80s in particular is pinging me. That game was so comparably jokey that I think it completely undermines their point. And I think Crossbell knows it too throwing my quote in at the end talking about how the joking is a character break. Definitely agenda vibes here.
The team sort in 155 is just incomprehensible to me. I have no clue how any Cantrip teams were eliminated at that point. Cantrip had 1 post at that point. 1.
I think this might be confirmation bias because I've been scum reading Cross through this ISO but the friendly meme'ing with Proph and DV feels like if not a pocket attempt and attempt to get in their good graces.
198 is sort of what I mean. It's a kind of pointless post other than to agree with Proph. He doesn't really use that distinction to push Wisp or Axel. He's pushing Axel but that is never really his point.
The pivot to Dota has a whiff of OMGUS to it. Not in the traditional sense of a knee jerk reaction but in a wanting to build a wagon over the vote. The move off Axel and onto Dota just feels off to me. I can't point to any specific post but the way they beg DV to go with them and then follow Proph instead after DV votes with Cross is just more of the appeasement I was getting at.
ISO done.
So major thoughts are the intial tone felt off but that improved throughout the game. Probably was mostly early Roleplay missing for me. The readswall and team sort are agenda'y red flags to me. As is the intial Axel push. Then the buddying up to Proph and DV just doesn't feel like town core building to me (given the different handling of Wisp for example).
Vote on Crossbell sticking and increasing in intensity.
I made the point earlier that this post felt off. It's trying to nail Osie to the wall, and doesn't seem a fair analysis of his play. It's full of agenda.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Think the wolves plan this game is to discredit or mislunch one or both of us, and that is why I am suspicious of DV
This is still giving me the heebie jeebies. I'm town reading Wisp to some degree, and Proph knowing Cross was Osie makes it make a bit more sense, but where is the suspicion on me? I literally made a case on both Proph and Osie with the qualifier that both can't be scum together. Weird stuff.
tl;dr - I just don't see the maliciousness. Osie was super over the top and hyperactive, but I think he has constant foot-in-mouth syndrome like me, and that was even more amplified because he chose to intentionally emulate my posting style. I feel like if he randed scum this game, he would have been a lot more reserved and play more by-the-book rather than ruffle people's feathers early.
It's too long to quote but Proph's giant wall explaining his Osie read doesn't really work for me and the TLDR doesn't really summarize the majority of his post.
The body mostly talks about his own mindset in interacting with Osie and barely mentions reasons for actively town reading him. The first 3 paragraphs end with a negative view! And they are the most in depth. After that Proph just mostly points to his older posts as explanations for his reads and uses the line about missing maliciousness.
The big problem I have with this post is that he's presenting it as a long promised explanation about his Osie read but he doesn't really do that. It's a sublte difference but it's more a justification for his read than it is a read of Osie.
This line in particular sticks out to me: "I keep interacting with Osie and I am using him sort of a sounding board to re-evaluate my own reads, like the one scumread I had on Wisp at the time:"
That does nothing to explain why he thought Osie was town but it does justify Proph's actions. This isn't someone trying to enlighten the game, it's someone trying to protect themselves from blowback. The TLDR provides a postitive case for Osie but it's also a weak case that doesn't really justify the strength proph was posting with or the repeated delays in explaining it. Activity, TWTBAW, and roleplay isn't this indepth case that is hard to explain. This definitely feels like covering tracks and retroactive justification more than it feels like a natural town case.
Vote: Proph
The parts of this post about you are obviously wrong, and I don't think he arrived at this post naturally.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Aaaaaaaaaand I have work now.
I did whaT I could. I feel like the conclusions you came to are what I would be trying to prove anyway. I'm off at midnight btw so I can't be back before deadline.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Proph:
1. Because I had no confidence in the high/low thing as an ACTUAL THING. It was more "this feels like this could be the case, lets assume it's true and see where it goes" and it turned out to not be a thing.
2.I believe it was because I disliked DotA's lack of really doing anything at all more than I disliked Cantrip's play. I think I made a post addressing that somewhere, and when I come across it during my towncase I'll make a note.
3. IIRC I was reading his ISO when I posted that first post, and then was asked by Wisp to ISO him officially? Yeah no in a post just before it I said I was rereading Osie. And I think I made the "Cross might be scum" post because I'd already finished reading his ISO and that was the conclusion I'd come to?
The second question is because I didn't really want to argue again that you were being driven by an agenda. I had outlined my (incorrect) case on that elsewhere.
The third question will be answered in my self ISO but the short answer is I really thought I'd caught something early with you and was probably falling to confirmation bias in reading subsequent posts. I'd said early on that I should reevaluate if you were able to keep up not the activity but the direct engagement but never really did that. I took your reevaluation of me to be backing down from conflict after EoD1 when I survived. As for the "kid gloves" to use your words it wasn't exactly about the way you posted at KJ but the way you handled the thread flow. I thought it fit because you were leaving him in the PoE but not actively trying to bury him. I wouldn't call most of what you did actively defending him but prioritizing other targets.
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Curse PremiumOK, you not doing much with the whole high/low posters kinda makes sense now because you didn't really push any scumreads or vote anybody based off of it. You just only hammered the two townies (and helped us vote scum Eco off the map)
Please point to me where you said you disliked DoTA.
Uhh I'll recheck context but I can buy this I think.
Is there a reason why you didn't mention this, or pressure Cantrip for this during Day 1? I know you were pretty focused on Osie and I, but I don't think there was anything precluding either Cantrip/me or Cantrip/Osie being a team at the time - especially when Cantrip also expressed a townread on Osie during Day 1.
And why did you interpret me re-evaluating you at EoD1/SoD2 as a scummy thing? Wouldn't me as scum just try to railroad you and continue my dogged pursuit after we mislunched GJ?
Fair re: thread flow.
--
I'm still busy with a coding assessment but I'll try to be more active on Friday. Until then, y'all just post your cases.
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Curse Premiumbeen pretty irresponsible this morning which is bad for me, need to work harder on focusing
see y'all tonight and will be around tomorrow
Continuing my post.
Killjoy - 1 (Grapefruit21)
Grapefruit21 - 1 (Killjoy)
With 3 alive, it is 2 to majority lynch.
Day will end on 12:05 AM, EST, on Sunday, August 1.
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Curse PremiumHere's the random notes post I've been saving up all Day regarding Cantrip/Eco interactions. Very lazy, cursory analysis that is not formatted well.
Cantripmancer:
This post here makes me feel like he has TMI on Killjoy being town? Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but the way he just goes "town, town town" on Crossbell, KJ, and DoTA. He fencesits on Grape. He says that he gets "standard Axel vibes" from Axel, which makes me think that he may be TMIing on Killjoy, especially since he says this:
Epecially when the thread consensus was very much at KJ either a null or scumread.
Also again, might be confirmation biasing, but I kinda don't like this interaction between Cantrip and GF. It feels very softball-y. Also I especially don't like the "Hrmmmmmmmmm" coming from GF here.
Cantrip didn't really interact with either KJ or GF that much, so let's take a look at Ecophagy.
Pretty safe reads post here, townreading the obvious town while putting his potential buddy in the PoE/null section. The thing that's weirding me out here is that he's giving both GF and KJ a chance to redeem themselves by saying to GF "768 is a first step" and to KJ "start with this VCA".
Slightly townreads Grape here. Will have to see his progression.
Also slightly townreads KJ here, but then immediately backs down on it because he says that the logic is "really flimsy". Also gives the answer key to KJ here.
Not exactly sure if he shades KJ like this if he's buddies with him. Here's another shade attempt:
Also kinda reads as unaligned tbh.
Kind of a neutral retort towards Grape, and also another attempt to dunk on KJ.
Day 3.. gonna take things with more of a grain of salt and figure out what the scum's plan was going into that Day. Still think the hypothesis of Eco/Grape converging towards KJ as the final mislunch is correct but we'll see.
Definitely feels like Eco is trying to prepare KJ as the final mislunch as opposed to bussing his buddy.
Lol
:/
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Curse PremiumMaybe will vote today but more likely tomorrow, when everyone has posted their cases.
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Curse PremiumI still can't really get past this question. Grapefruit, you /saw/ my wolfgame in Snow White, where I did the stupid "popping bottles" thing and started things off way too early. Why did you ask me this question when you saw me effectively end RVS super early in Snow White?
HOW is it very out of character for me? What games were you using to base this comparison off of?
Still just trying to figure out here if this is Cantrip knowing that KJ is town and is easily to apply a townread on him for that, or if he's scum and this is Cantrip trying to defend him pre-emptively. I feeeeeeeel like Cantrip doesn't want to have a against-the-grain townread on KJ because it would make him look bad if KJ flipped before him?
How was I supposed to re-evaluate the rest of the game with the Wisp pivot? Did you expect me to actually re-evaluate everything when it was Day 1 and most people hadn't geared up to post by then?
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Curse PremiumGenerally Grape's macro has been better than KJ's, but KJ's micro has been better. But overall in terms of a birds eye view, I just can't get past the fact that GF has no wolf pelts and pretty much just tunneled Osie and me all game. I really don't think that town GF would have just been stuck in the mud. I'll reread the MU game (Tarot Mafia) to see if he's the same or different.
This post still reads as bad to me lol
I still don't really understand the thought process here
Grapefruit says that he thought the slot still has a decent chance to be a wolf, but then he transitions into "GJ's not scum with Proph and Proph's wall is howling". And then he continues with the fact that GJ is not scum because he thinks I am. So why did he say the second sentence exactly? Grape, can you enlighten me?
I still don't really think that KJ re-evaluates on DV for literally no reason if he's a wolf? Like, why would you do that?
GF's EoD1 still looks decent for him minus the whole "legacy time" thing. I keep bringing that up bc it's so jarring. I also don't really understand why in his quoted post makes him think that DV thinks GJ is town.
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Curse PremiumHere he's giving himself another opportunity to townread Grape.
This post also feels legit
I feeeeeeeeeel like Eco doesn't post this last part if he's scum with KJ. It feels like a dunk and unnecessary shade.
Again this is confirmation bias, but Eco's giving a chance for KJ to clear himself/look better and he just doesn't take it. He never does the vote analysis that Eco keeps suggesting. I feel like Eco would poke KJ in scumchat to do it, or KJ would have delivered on the VCA to make himself and Eco look good.
This feels like a dunk for dunk's sake moreso than distancing I /feeeeeeel/?
this doesn't feeeeeeel like a buddy/buddy interaction?
I think this post is pretty wolfy ngl
He's giving Eco kind of a pass here while giving himself license to go after me and KJ and tie us as a team.
Again this feels like chaining a KJ mislunch once DoTA is dead moreso than "I'm gearing up to bus my buddy"
blurgh
don't like how he ties his scumread on me into an excuse to townread Eco here
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Curse PremiumThis is where I do not think that GF is being genuine about tunnelling me. I feel like he's happy that I am gearing up with him on the KJ misexecute and he's happy to stop pressuring me if we all agree on scum KJ. Also I would expect someone who was actually tunnelled on me to not flip a dime based on one post.
I feel like this is Eco just going in for the kill here as opposed to bussing. I feel like if he was actually scum with KJ he would be weighing GF more as an option and casing him more heavily in order to get the W yesterday, right?
And I feeeeeel like if KJ was actually scum then he would engage in this crossbus with Eco, right? Because that's how you do the SQUEEZE PLAY - commit to bussing each other in xylo so that you come into f3 looking good.
And like I don't think KJ/Eco just come into f5 with the intention to townread me and Wisp and then fight each other. It makes more sense imo that Grape and Eco are scum and they've been coalescing around getting KJ as the final mislunch while working through the game from different ways. And they don't even spend a whole lot of time interacting, while Eco has a lot of posts late Day 2 where he's essentially just shading KJ.
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Curse PremiumThere's a part of me who is very scared to lose to slanker KJ who essentially had very little impact throughout the game, and I can hear DV just lecturing me about how I screwed up and that I should have re-evaluated because I wasn't NK'd, but the evidence points to Grape
Also not to do KJ's work for him but I gave y'all four days to post. That's quite a bit of time, especially considering we knew what this xylo was likely going to be on Saturday (one of me or Wisp would have been left alive)
- Grape has had a continual tunnel on me for Days 1/2/3 and was focusing on Osie/GJ for most of Day 1. He later pivoted to a me/KJ team when it was obvious that he couldn't get me mislunched, but his reads have been very flat. That's the definition of static progression right there. He never really had any change of heart or major reads changes. It's always just been Osie for most of Day 1, then when I made Osie reveal himself it was me. Then Day 2 rolled around and he was pretty floaty for the beginning of Day 2, but soon refocused on me and to KJ. He focused his worldview on the assumption that I was going to flip scum and based most of his reads around that assumption, even though he didn't really try that hard to get me lunched. Like he basically used his tunnel on me as an excuse to look like he was doing something and he never bothered to really debate or engage with me like DV did - I think because he knew he'd get smoked. Even yesterday in xylo he bemoaned his ability to not get me lunched but quickly pivoted to KJ. I think town Grape, if he genuinely had that scumread on me, would try WAY harder to get me lunched and in general be more active and engaged with the game. Or would have townread me, and we would have worked together!
- Grapefruit and Eco BARELY interacted with each other. Grape asked a softball question to Eco, Eco replied. Eco did the same, Grape replied. But they largely kept out of each other's way. Grape was on team Proph/KJ and he cleared Eco because he didn't think it would makes sense with me as scum, but he never really went out of his way to interact with Eco. Eco, on the other hand, forced himself into believing it was KJ/Grape, and did try to convince me that it was Grape, but his primary focus throughout most of Yesterday was KJ (and he was forced to adopt that team because he boxed himself in). Grape said that Eco's walls were "fine" Yesterday but didn't really elaborate or analyse Eco in depth like he did with KJ. The game makes sense if KJ/Eco were approaching the game from different viewpoints but tried to end the game Yesterday by converging on KJ.
- Eco dunked on KJ a lot throughout the game in a way that makes me think that he was trying to set KJ up as the final mislunch as opposed to distancing. I feel like Eco taking the chance letting this game go to final 3 with either me alive or Last alive is too risky - he would have tried to end it in f5. If Eco was distancing, then I feel like KJ would have allowed himself to gain some towncred by answering Eco's questions, but he never did that. Like, I see very little reason for Eco to set KJ up for a bus here when he allowed himself the freedom to go more after Grape because Grape was tunneling me at the time, but Eco never really did that. This is kind of tautological logic but the way Yesterday was set up didn't feel like a crossbus was going on.
- The scum's game plan doesn't make sense if KJ/Eco are scum. Like, what are the scum going to do, crossbus and then have to fight in f3? Eco essentially boxed himself into voting KJ, and KJ if he was buddies with Eco should have gotten the memo and focused on Eco a LOT earlier. Instead, he just kinda floated unaware-ly. KJ and Eco essentially boxed themselves into voting themselves Yesterday if they're both scum, and that's not really a winning play as wolf. No, the winning play is to set KJ up as the final mislunch while you and your buddy convince me and Wisp that KJ is scum, and that's how Yesterday kinda felt. Also, Eco's posts towards EoD when I was re-evaluating had that touch of panic in them - he felt pretty flat and consistent when he was focusing on KJ.
- To top things off, KJ isn't really even that scummy. He's had a fair number of micro towntells throughout the game (him asking me if I'm rusty, him saying imagine if he caught scum this game, him saying that he couldn't leave a detailed answer to Wisp's game when if he's a wolf he just snap answers his two scum and four town) but for the most part I can sorta believe him in that he's been approaching the game from a super uninformed angle - a type of way that I think would be difficult to emulate as a wolf. I feel like it's more likely he's just town and disengaged. As scum I feel like he'd know more about the actual gamestate at least as opposed to constantly being clueless like he has been.
If I'm wrong, hopefully people see where I'm coming from at least. I know some of these points are kinda conf-biasy (like the third, there's nothing really stopping Eco from distancing from KJ... but I don't think he would do that gun to head as it's a play not to lose line as opposed to playing to win)
The only world where KJ could be scum is if he's super disengaged with the game thread, and isn't even responding to his buddy Eco in daychat. But the game just makes more sense with Grape being the last scum. I know he's a better townie than this, is what it comes down to. I don't think he rands town and spends the entire game just railing after me. That's such an agenda-driven push.
I'll wait for you both to post because you guys have barely posted this f3 but that's where I stand on things atm.
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Curse PremiumI plan on voting tomorrow. Maybe tonight if y'all get back to me in time but I highly doubt that.
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Curse Premiumlike we just dunked on a wolf right? he would work with me and try to turn this game from a bad end into a good one
don't want to prod on RL things but grape's stretches of absence unnerve me because it reminds me strongly of what i do as scum (post well for a stretch then peace from the thread for a bit)
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Curse PremiumThen comes the post where I ask Cross to consider whther or not the second vote on an RVS wagon is relevent.This was based on the fact that in a 12 player game, the third vote on an RVS wagon is sometimes relevent, and I was postulating whether the second would be similarly relevent in this game size.
331 is where I decide you are town for how you're playing. In the post I asked you if you were feeling rusty because your questions felt, I guess disconnected? Like you were obviously trying to figure out the game but you were just kind of questioning everything in order to find SOMETHING relevent. I think that's why I used to do it anyway, which I noted that it reminded me of me.
475 was a slightly lazy reads list which scumreads Wisp and DV, saying that :The two people I think currently are scum are DV and Wisp. DV has aggressively jumped on at least Proph for minutia and has also been hedgy in a bad way. Wisp I specifically think is scum for his progression on me. He keeps maintaining (353, 417, 432) that I've been really null. I feel like it's not just an opinion of his, he's trying to convince others of it, possibly to counteract the townleans people seem to have developed on me. He's not scumreading me as of now, so why is he pushing so hard that other's should not be townreading me? I think he knows I'm town and misyeetable so he's trying to preserve that."
516 is me trying to explain why I dislike Wisp's "extremely null" designation. The crux of that argument was basically I felt like people were tentitively townreading me and Wisp was trying to push a new narritive about me just being really null and not town. I did this with a longwinded paragraph about your Wisp bodypillow et al. You may remember it.
It's been said that 522 was a natural thought by me. It was, but I'm biased. The reason I posted this was obviously because I'm usually garbage at catching scum/commiting to the read.
523/524 was a response to Wisp asking my to ISO Cross, like I said.
I'm actually not sure what post of yours I was referring to in 627. I looked and couldn't find one that immediately made sense
In 629 I was softening on my scumread of DV, thinking maybe his aggression wasn't malicious, but he was just overly (and more importantly, genuinely) emotional. Also not in an agenda driven way, which malicious implies.
I end up voting GJ because I had thought Cross was scum, and GJ didn't really improve my read on the slot.
Short convo with Wisp, followed by an attempt to get into the game by ISOing Cantrip. I conclude he's likely scum.
In 485 I had some questions for DotA but one of them was nonsensical since I misread a post and based a question off of that.
941 is just... 100% wrong. It's actually kind of embarassing. I even discount Grape for having too many scumreads. And the gameflow thing was just... misguided to say the least.This is followed by Wisp and Grape questioning me on it. Wisp calls it BS and questions my reads, Grape asks what I would look for in a game dominated by scum.
Side note: now that Wisp is dead he is probably 100% cursing me in the spec chat now that he knows I was town the whole time.
956 is when I start thinking Wisp might be town again because during our discussion his response to me was townie.
in 977, Eco pokes me for not following through on my VCA, which I was reconsidering due to game size. He also accused me of backing down from a fight with Wisp, which wasn't true.
In response to Wisp's game: "I guess Proph wolf, wisp town, grape town, axel town, dota town eco scum." which was primarily based on recent reads and my high/low read which was wrong.
1063 is where I try to explain to YOU about high/low. I eliminate most other worlds here as well. Slightly later I explain why I landed on you/Eco as the team.
I appretntly never officially said why I disliked DotA. I just kinda voted him at the end of the day. The reason was just "I read his ISO and wasn't impressed". I think I said that before though?
Then is a conversation with Wisp where I was getting annoyed with him. I'm sure you remember it.
I attempt to towncase you in 1306 because eliminating you from the PoE would help solve the game significantly
Then I make some posts trying to show Grape is scum...
Aaaaaand that's everything that I've really done.
So, a summary!: I think you would think I'm town because I don't have a scum agenda. I have been very disconnected with this game due to time constraints, but I feel like the posts I do make aren't helping the scum team. I believe you could see where I'm coming from for the most part. There's also something to be said (as you pointed out) that Eco was trying to dunk me for a lot of Yesterday, and you would be correct to think that he's not doing that as a Hail Mary trying to win. A part of my case would also be that I've made some posts that Grape is scum with Eco.
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Curse PremiumYou said you thought DV was scum in 475, and you said that you hated his post where he voted me in 493. But in post 629/633 you no longer think he's scum. What changed during that timeframe? Like what posts from DV's make you think he was being genuinely emotional and not malicious.
(Also wow are these post links screwed up)
You tried to remove me from the PoE completely but you said this earlier. Why did you contradict your process?
As for your summary: Yes, I think I've given you a lot of room to maneuver as either alignment. I'm trying to figure out if continuing to give you room will win us the game or I'll just be MEGA POCKETED by you or something.
Also would love to see Grape show up sometime in the next 24 hours or so.
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Curse PremiumIt's a little frustrating that both of you have not been proactive really whatsoever during this f3 :/
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Curse PremiumI'll give Grape the last 24 hours but I have to say that whichever one of you is town, you're making it pretty difficult for me to get there on you.
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Curse Premium- First assumption is that Grape was tunneling on me all game but shifted to an actually correct target in KJ late Day 2 and Day 3. So town Grape here was just never able to get there on me.
- Scum were majorly lurking for Day 1. I'll feel really silly if this is the case, because KJ/Cantrip were the lowest posters on Day 1/2 aside from DoTA I'm pretty sure.
- Cantrip was trying to slide KJ in his townreads by saying that his 150 was classic town KJ, and he thinks that the sharpness of his insight comes from town KJ.
- Killjoy calls Cantrip a Tricksy Hobbit and tries to distance/throw him under the bus when he cased Cantrip. However, if he truly wanted to get bus cred, then he would vote Cantrip/Eco there? Right? And try to fully commit to the bus, in order to get towncred?
- Killjoy tries to hop onto the GJ wagon after "scumreading" two townies, DV and Wisp.
- I have to say that Grape is still giving me a mixed feeling about his EoD. Like, his stuff where he thinks he's dead kinda comes off as genuine and.. it would be solid wolf play to fake that as scum. The other thing that I'm kinda reading into (but I shouldn't) is the nightkill. DV was offed randomly N1 for saying that Cantrip/KJ was the team; would scum Grape really kill someone that was defending him? And I could see KJ/Cantrip playing the wine game I think, and killing the person who thought they were aligned?
- Eco was giving KJ a lot of rope and a lot of opportunities for Eco to reverse his read on KJ. He was also giving Grape these opportunities though.
- So in the world where KJ is town, Eco is trying to distance from him while pushing town DOTA. Eco continues to engage with him about how he's playing the game but shading him in the process
- I have to say that in the world where KJ is scum he's kinda been pocketing me all game and... it's working? Idk.
- In 1174 Eco basically forces himself to tunnel KJ by saying that because me/Grape is a very unlikely team, then KJ has to be mafia here. So again he's locking himself in to going to f3 here or to make KJ look good if he flips scum.
Eco again dunks/distances from KJ here:
More dunking/distancing here.
I have to say that these chain of posts do look good for GF. Him hesitating as to why everyone's on board with executing KJ is a good look.
This is kinda a dunk on his scum buddy but I can sorta see Eco kind of playing up his anger here to distance between themselves more?
And yeah Eco keeps bashing on KJ.
---
My conclusion is... it's so hard to read into anything that happened in that f5 because I feel like Eco may have went into antispew at some point. He's definitely skilled enough to seed misguided interactions as scum.
I feel like if Eco was bussing, then that means that KJ just wasn't very active in scum chat or wasn't listening to Eco at all, because KJ's responses come off as very disconnected and again, unaware of the game state. Also, Eco's plan that f5 was to try and not to lose as opposed to win, because he didn't go after me, Wisp, or GF at all. He just boxed himself in and voted KJ. He was essentially guaranteeing a scum lunch there as opposed to trying to go for the win. And I feeeeeeel like scum Eco would just go for the win?
I still feel like Cantrip's post is TMI knowing that KJ is town, because he defended DOTA and Osie. But again I'm not sure if he sandwiched a buddy between two townreads..?
I need to reread Pirates to see if GF also had static progression in that game and to see if he is capable of faking his nuance.
During Day 2, he was more aggro towards KJ
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Curse PremiumI'm second guessing myself sigh. I really do feel like Eco/Grape were going for the W Yesterday, because again I feel that they could potentially convince Wisp or I to vote KJ. That's why they both were casing KJ and leading up to a vote on him,
I have to say that everyone who was NK'd suspected KJ. DV said that Cantrip/KJ was the team. Axel soured on him EoD2. Last was the more likely person to vote for KJ than me.
I was so confident when we entered this phase lol
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Curse PremiumI think it's like 60% Grape 40% KJ atm but we'll see. I'm trying to be even-keeled and evaluate all of the evidence objectively but my human brain loves playing tricks on me. The NK thing is spooky but again, not sure how much I should be reading into that. It's just that.. did Eco plan to go down during f5 and then have me waffle on Grape because Eco intentionally didn't interact with him? Did he plan all this out? How was he going to win in a Eco/(me or Wisp)/Grape f3? Was he gonna use his arguing of pushing KJ to get there when Grape also pushed KJ quite heavily?
Will reiterate: whomever the townie is here, you're making it difficult for me to get there on you.
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Curse Premiumand I'm going to bed. cheers.
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Curse Premiumwill be ending this game in 9 hours fyi
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Curse Premiumi can't believe i'm stuck by myself trying to decide the game and y'all are just Not Posting
Hey I'm doing stuff.
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Curse Premiumi have some more stuff written but I'm literally just waiting for you and grape to act like townies who want to win the game
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Curse PremiumI feel like I probably don't need to show you more Grape things to show you scum!Grape. Maybe I'll look at Eco to see if I can show partners that way.
I elininated you because there was enough pointing to town you and its near enough to the end of the game to where eliminations are needed.
Also you really can't take that too literally to mean I will NEVER eliminate anyone nonmechanically because obviously we will evenutally get to a point where there's maybe no mechanics eliminating people and we have 5 people left. Sometimes you gotta make that leap of faith and hope you're right.
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Curse PremiumPoints noted re your last post.
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Curse PremiumKILLJOY PROS
- micro towntells (how rusty are you feeling this game, maybe i'll finally catch scum on mtgs, "dont think i can leave a simple answer to this" which probably doesn't enter KJ's brain if he's scum, "Scum know they need me dead, because I'm the best target for them") tldr - stuff that is pretty easy to fake objectively, but I think these types of micro towntells are easier for town to get into the mindset of
- mostly agenda-less and just overall very disconnected from the game. i read some of KJ's past games but he's never been as disconnected as this. on the contrary in both of his scum games he felt quite engaged and posted a lot of walls, but he also was very engaged as town in tarot/80s. so idk with meta
- don't think he randomly re-evals dv and wisp like he does in day 1/day 2. there's no reason for him to do that
- the high/low poster thing is bizarre, but i feel like scum KJ would have tried to use it to push someone or accomplish something. him just randomly putting it out there and doing nothing with it feels more likely to come from town that doesn't know whats going on vs scum to me
- eco dunks on him d2/d3 in a way where it feels like eco was trying to set kj up as the final mislunch moreso than a bus and then trying to staredown at f3.
- also eco's posts after I declared my eco/kj team felt very... calm. like he was pushing the gamestate in the desired direction. he started to panic when i had my epiphany and when i wanted to vote him out. idk if this means anything but i kinda buy it (1284, 1293)
- if kj is scum here then he has to be completely disengaged as scum and not listening to what his scumbuddy eco is posting in scumchat. i find that somewhat unlikely given that kj has scum games where he is pretty engaged
- has a wolf pelt (eco)
KILLJOY CONS
- meta. he's never played this disengaged as town before I feel
- all the NKs kinda point to him since he's offed everyone who has scumread him. kind of paranoid of this even though it's wine at the end
- hasn't really made an impact on the game macro wise
- wrote up a huge case on cantrip but just never voted or pressured eco
- objectively speaking/in a vacuum, his lack of progression and random stances *is* wolfy. but idk, its better than the lockdown agenda-based consistency that gf has had?
GRAPEFRUIT21 PROS
- had a real impact on the game and tried to solve. opener posts have a lot of nuance
- does his "lack of self confidence/crippling doubt" tell a couple of times, which he does more as town
- his eod is both good and bad. good because i think the mindset required to put out reads when you might die at eod is townie. bad because the way he just abruptly re-evaluated and said "legacy time" when he wasn't likely to be lunched eod1 makes me feel like it could all be an act
GRAPEFRUIT21 CONS
- tunnelling me and osie. kinda refuse to believe his reads are that bad, after he sunk the scumteam in tarot. plus agenda/lack of progression etc. i feel like if GF was town we would have tried to work together, and I would have recognized the towniness in him. me/gf/wisp are a hell of a team, and we can pretty much bounce ideas off of one another
- barely interacted with eco. eco barely interacted with him. ditto with cantrip
- feels like eco would try to go for the win in f5 rather than bus his buddy and try to win in f3. he did not really push grape at all and boxed himself into believing kj was scum. i feel like the scum were comfortable with the gamestate, before I had the epiphany that grape was scum. then eco started panicking (cuz we'd realize that i'd lunch him first). i really do think that eco is the type of player to Play to Win vs Playing Not to Lose, and it was quite likely one of wisp or I would have re-evaluated on kj Yesterday
- weird inactivity gaps. this was the thing that made me so nervous, because I feel like town GF would be more invested and more consistent in activity. instead it's just he posts for a couple of times, then dips for like 2-3 days, then does it again. again he's just Not Here for this xylo which makes me think that he's scum who has lost heart/WIM since we lunched Eco Yesterday moreso than town who got excited that we have a chance to win again. if he's town, he has given me nothing over the past one and a half weeks i feel. inb4 he shows up like 2 hours before deadline and starts spamming
- has no wolf pelts
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Curse Premiumnot "really low"
I did whaT I could. I feel like the conclusions you came to are what I would be trying to prove anyway. I'm off at midnight btw so I can't be back before deadline.
Good luck.
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Curse PremiumI'll be thread camping sort of for the next couple of hours I guess seeing if grape will actually show up and play
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Curse PremiumNo way he slanks the entirety of f3 as town
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Curse PremiumRegardless of the outcome of this game, it was a pleasure playing with all of you.
May the better side prevail.
Vote Grapefruit21