KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Eco: It's not easy to unify my tools when those tools (or rather their results) contradict each other. Its entirely possible that I'm letting Wisp off easy with "liking his reaction to me" but tbh my holistic view is not one I'm super confident on because I've never used it before.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I guess the main thing I want to hear from DoTA is this:
This is his entire progression on Killjoy.
Quote from DoTArchon »
Shows how rusty I am, I hadn't even considered that it could be distancing. I don't think scumKJ brings this up so early in the game when it could have been used later on if I was facing being defenestrated.
Quote from DoTArchon »
It was a viewpoint I hadn't considered, and one that didn't make sense to bring up as scum. I played MTG for a number of years and I agree, it is possible he just overlooked Timetwister. I just see a town mindset from KJ in considering all the possibilities.
Quote from DoTArchon »
I'm beginning to have doubts about my townread of KJ, I liked the early question he asked and the follow up on that, but he has more posts than I do and only 2 or 3 of those are content posts. The rest are just short answers to questions about old games or complaints about Curse (which we can all understand)
Quote from DoTArchon »
The TLDR is: Last and Cantrip are at the bottom of my T/S list by the end of page 5, KJ looking better in retrospect of this.
Quote from DoTArchon »
Right now, Killjoy and Cantrip/Eco, but I'm still busy with the read through. Should have time tonight (few hours from now).
How the heck did he shift from his PoE going from "Last/Cantrip, KJ looking better" to "Killjoy and Cantrip/Eco"?
The "KJ looking better" note was based on the first few pages of the game, but as I read further (specifically the interactions with Wisp and D_V) that read drops off.
Sorry I haven't been as present a lot. Work has been stressful.
Anyway, I think Axel might be town. Early game he got a fair amount of hate for his typical playstyle (in which he doesn't usually start Doing Things until not early game) and that makes me feel like he was a target for scum. I'm confident enough in this at least to put him in the Not Yeeting Today pile.
Proph as I said earlier reminds me of me when I'm trying to get info, and a rusty Proph who isn't used to needing to solve as town probably fits that criteria.
I don't really have a specific opinion on Cantrip as of now. He's one of the Tricksy Hobbits and uses a lot of words. I think I'd prefer overNight to try to figure him out.
I had no good opinion on Osiebell. Osie being Proph is not Osie enough for me to judge him outright. His posts were... fine I guess?
DotA had some decent posts but has not a lot of content, so he's not out of the PoE I suppose but he's not on my chopping block right now.
I need to reread Grape honestly because I just straight up don't remember things from him.
The two people I think currently are scum are DV and Wisp. DV has aggressively jumped on at least Proph for minutia and has also been hedgy in a bad way. Wisp I specifically think is scum for his progression on me. He keeps maintaining (353, 417, 432) that I've been really null. I feel like it's not just an opinion of his, he's trying to convince others of it, possibly to counteract the townleans people seem to have developed on me. He's not scumreading me as of now, so why is he pushing so hard that other's should not be townreading me? I think he knows I'm town and misyeetable so he's trying to preserve that.
Vote Wisp
I'm also fine with an extesion, espceially so GJ can catch up fully etc.
There's a few things in this post that I think sound fabricated.
His first point regarding Axel, it was Osie who had a scumread of him and a few people pointing out to Osie that his opening to the game was well within his meta. D_V, Proph, Wisp and Cantrip all disagreed with Osie about Axel to some degree, so I don't get where KJ comes up with the idea that Axel got a lot of heat.
Eleven of Cantrip's twelve posts were made before this one, and most people had formulated at least some opinion of him by this point. Accusing Cantrip of using a lot of words sounds like an excuse to skip giving a read on him. For posterity, this is all of Cantrip's posts up to this point:
I tried to play the game last night, but MTGS kept throwing error messages, so I gave up and went to bed.
Caught up, ready to rock, let's get this bread.
Crossbell: I know high interaction doesn't automatically equate to town, but I always lean that way. Some general game solving vibes, too. I don't really get the suspicion on Axel. 98 might be a little try-hard, but, as has been noted, the Proph roleplay may be a factor there. Maybe I've got them higher than I ought just because they correctly noted that my absence was because of the weekend. If I'm right in my suspicions of who they are, though, they're solidly in their town meta. Certainly don't see why they're L-2. Town.
@Cross: Can you point to differences in other games from Axel? I'm just getting standard Axel vibes so far.
Killjoy: Pretty light in content, but that last post (150) is pretty solidly town paranoid KJ. Townlean.
DoTArchon: Feels like he wants to solve, especially with his insight into KJ's mindset. Townlean.
Wisp: I think a telling point here is the carelessness. Scum Wisp likes to pretend that they're careless, but they rarely actually post things that garner serious attention beyond "Why is Wisp the way Wisp be?" I'm not getting faked carelessness here (other than the drunkposting, but drunkposting always feels fake to me.) Mild townlean.
Axel: Not much here, but certainly not getting the "awkward" vibes that Cross is concerned about. Still null.
Grape: Some mindmeld on the Easy Breezy Beautiful Whisper read, and I like the long version of 73, but the TLDR feels waffly. Of course, it's coming from the Hedgelord, so I'll take it with a grain of salt and wait and see. Null.
DV: I hate reading DV. Scumlean.
Proph: The energy and engagement give me generally good vibes, but the progression from 22, where he says he will easily be able to read Wisp, to 30, where he votes Wisp for "clumsy" posts feels weird, especially with Proph saying it's for Wisp's "early" posts.
@Proph: Can you show me Wisp being "clumsy", as you note in 30? In their "early" posts only, please.
Do you think Wisp right now is engaged and relaxed? I think his posting has been quite clumsy and.. unconfident, for lack of a better term. He seems to be annoyed with both how I and Crossbell are treating him, which is understandable.
You seem to be listing Wisp's annoyance with you and Cross as a point against them, but then you say it's understandable?
WTH. I had eight posts quoted via multiquote, clicked Reply, nothing. Went to another page and they're gone. So I'm just going to reply as I REREAD things and y'all can suffer my multiposting.
@Cantrip I don't get your town read on crossbell at all. You only added two details beyond engaged and solvey=town. The first was the Proph roleplay was a factor in other people (DV and myself notably) scum reading the wall post and you having a guess to the identity and projecting that to the town meta. I have a hard time seeing how that equals a top town read.
The meta read is actually playing a lot stronger here than I think I realized. Each subsequent post makes me feel like it's more likely who I think it is, and I'm freaking loving it. (Spoiler: I'm probably completely wrong, because I'm almost always wrong on these things, but something something blind squirrel...) I'm also happy with the volume of output. Again, not necessarily town on its own, but in combination with everything, feels indicative to me. The Axel read still doesn't meld with me (nor the DoTa one, tbf), but the meta dive at least lets me see where Cross is coming from.
I don't like DoTA's vote on Crossbell; it feels opportunistic to me. I am fine with his questioning on Crossbell, but the vote feels.. premature? Like he's looking for someone to incriminate. Would still like to see him zoom out/focus on the game at large.
Disagree. That quoted post with bolded emphasis feels like an aha moment, which is harder for scum to fake than town. Not impossible, but the conviction feels more likely town, too.
Killjoy: Pretty light in content, but that last post (150) is pretty solidly town paranoid KJ. Townlean.
Talk to me about why you think 150 is more likely to come from town paranoid killjoy? I'm looking at post 150 and while I do think it's a good callout (because DV jumping straight into assuming inside info on Crossbell's declaration of town on me is a weird assumption given the open setup) I don't see how it sharply indicates town killjoy.
It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ.
Quote from Proph »
Quote from Cantripmaner »
DV: I hate reading DV. Scumlean.
Why does you hating reading DV automatically equivocate to a scumlean? Is it because he's been so vocal in pushing for Crossbell, one of your ostensibly stronger townreads?
Nah, it was simply for the reaction. (I know he reacted in a later post; more when I get there.)
Quote from Proph »
Quote from Cantripmancer »
Proph: The energy and engagement give me generally good vibes, but the progression from 22, where he says he will easily be able to read Wisp, to 30, where he votes Wisp for "clumsy" posts feels weird, especially with Proph saying it's for Wisp's "early" posts.
@Proph: Can you show me Wisp being "clumsy", as you note in 30? In their "early" posts only, please.
I think post 8, post 19, post 25, and some extent post 29 are indicative of him being reactive/clumsy. I'm used to town Wisp being more proactive and not being afraid to voice out his opinions or to vote early. I would also feel like he would be more critical or dogged in his pursuit of me if he was town. Right now, it feels like he's treating me with kid gloves.
I can see what you're saying a bit with 19 and 25, but I'm really not seeing the reactiveness of 8 or 29. I know you've recently re-evaluated Wisp townward, but given the conviction you were showing based on early game meta comparison, right now it just looks like you've decided that trying to get Wisp mis-eliminated isn't worth the effort and you're going to push elsewhere. (I saw your explanation, and I don't want to ask you to provide more detail because I generally agree with what you "found", but your change in position is a bit, as you say, jarring.)
Quote from Cantripmancer »
You seem to be listing Wisp's annoyance with you and Cross as a point against them, but then you say it's understandable?
At the time I made that post, I thought it was understandable for him to be annoyed at being pressured by Crossbell and I as either alignment. I'd be annoyed if I was being hounded by two clones of mine, for example.
Why does you hating reading DV automatically equivocate to a scumlean? Is it because he's been so vocal in pushing for Crossbell, one of your ostensibly stronger townreads?
Hey man when you gotta look for an excuse to scum read me this is how you do it.
Conclusion Dota, KJ, Grape and Cantrip are a better place to vote out right now. Not sure where to point though.
If you vote DoTA, I'll stop poking the monkey bear that is Axelrod and I'll vote DoTA with you.
Vote Axelrod
I want to +town DV for this. If this is scum!DV being offered a DoTa wagon and then joining Cross on Axel instead, that's some deep pocketing. Maybe less so if both Axel and DoTa flip town, but generally...yeah, I think this is more likely to come from town.
I've read past 200, but I'm falling asleep, so more posts in the morning. Good night.
Idk if I want to sheep this or if I stick with trying to get Axelrod to impress me... I think I just sheep this though since DoTA hasn't gotten better.
How could DoTA have gotten better when he hadn't posted?
I don't like DoTA's vote on Crossbell; it feels opportunistic to me. I am fine with his questioning on Crossbell, but the vote feels.. premature? Like he's looking for someone to incriminate. Would still like to see him zoom out/focus on the game at large.
Disagree. That quoted post with bolded emphasis feels like an aha moment, which is harder for scum to fake than town. Not impossible, but the conviction feels more likely town, too.
Ehh, it's pretty fragile though.
I don't know that it is, though. Feels very much like town pulling a thread (from his 137) and then seeing something significant in the details of your response and jumping on it. Although...he was putting you to L-2 and then peaced out for 24 hours, so I guess it could have been an attempt to start an elimination movement without looking like he was involved. Eh...I just feel like I want more from DoTA for now.
@Cantripmancer Can you, me, and Prophylaxis just all jump into each others' living rooms towncore and stay there? It would make solving this game a hell of a lot easier. Wisp may be able to come too if he is willing to leave the emotional baggage at the door lmao.
Man, that sounds cozy. But I'm far from satisfied with Proph's responses, so...my magic 8-ball says "prognosis is grim". I'm down with Wisp, though.
There is some engagement around page 4/5 between Axel and Crossbell but are they trying to figure each other out or just posting for the sake of having spoken to one another. I don't know if this makes them W/W or T/W but I have a gut feeling that it's not T/T.
That is...a weird way to conclude your statement. Your suspicion of Cross is apparent, so I get that you think they're either W/W or T/W, but why say it this way instead of just pondering whether Axel is a buddy or not? That doesn't seem to jive with your "are they trying to figure each other out" possibility, either, as that would only happen with T/T.
Pretty interested as to how Cantrip and I have.. bifurcating reads outside of the ones on Wisp/Crossbell, but I'll sort that out in X hours or so.
Up until less than 12 hours ago, we were bifurcated on Wisp as well, and I think there's a good chance you're mafia, so are you really that surprised that our reads don't align? Looking forward to you sorting and responding to my questions.
That is...a weird way to conclude your statement. Your suspicion of Cross is apparent, so I get that you think they're either W/W or T/W, but why say it this way instead of just pondering whether Axel is a buddy or not? That doesn't seem to jive with your "are they trying to figure each other out" possibility, either, as that would only happen with T/T.
If I'm wrong about Cross being scum then I have to reevaluate my reads and that includes Cross's scum read of Axel.
I feel like my question (in 265) was essentially what KJ asked in 267. Why did you give me this dismissive response while going into detail when responding to KJ?
@Cantripmancer - Because we're so diametrically opposed on our reads of the slot, can you talk to me in more detail about what you don't like about Proph? I await a glorious wall of evaluation.
Sure, but it'll have to wait until tonight. Because I'm out of time.
(As a random aside: One of my bigger pet peeves I've seen floating around recently is when people say "lunch me right now in f7/f5/whatever so I don't get mislunched in f3". This is such a stupid stance to take because if you know you're town, and there is one wolf remaining, then advocating for your own mislunch just so that you don't bear responsibility in f3 is basically you just throwing the game away. You should just work on lunching literally any other person, because that's someone's alignment you don't know, and that's a chance that you can end the game right there. If you DO end up in f3 or whatever, the game isn't lost. You might have to give it your all and/or try your hardest, but the game isn't over just because you got to f3.)
FWIW, I've recently made comments like this, and (for me) it's not "oh, the game is over; I hate losing!!!" going into the f3. It's that I feel a lot of pressure and responsibility to do a good job, and I seem to inevitably choke.
Note to self: had 278, 280, 281, 299 in the multi-quote to respond to when I ran out of time.
Dangit; I promised myself I wouldn't fall behind this time!
I've read up to current, have many responses I want to make, but they'll have to wait until morning. And I *will* post in the morning.
I know we're no longer to indicate deadline preference in-thread, but if the deadline is extended, a PSA: my weekend, especially being a holiday one, is going to be very busy. I *may* have opportunity for in-depth posting, but I may only be able to skim and post the most pertinent. My daytimes (I'm MST) will likely be spent nowhere near an internet signal. So...my apologies in advance.
A few quick points:
-- Dangit. I thought Cross was Bur or--with a hopeful heart--an outside possibility of Tom. Ah well.
-- With Osie behind the portrait, I'm still pretty much at a townlean, although not as strong. I thought Axel's points against Osie were pretty insightful, and even if I don't necessarily agree with all of them, Axel is certainly trending upward for me.
-- I'm also liking DV a bit more.
-- Still have Proph as most likely scum, but I *have* liked some of his responses. I'll go into more detail when I'm not exhausted.
-- Alas, poor OsieBell. Adieu.
-- Greetings G_J!
Disagree. That quoted post with bolded emphasis feels like an aha moment, which is harder for scum to fake than town. Not impossible, but the conviction feels more likely town, too.
I actually reread the surrounding context and you're right. I can see how DoTA could come to the conclusion that Crossbell is scum for using Axel's meta as the basis for scumreading him, all the while Crossbell is dismissing Wisp's read on DV as "spewing wine into the thread". I'll read through more of DoTA's posts as I go on, but the bolded emphasis is a good catch and something I didn't fully comprehend as I was reading DoTA's post.
Quote from Cantripmancer »
It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ.
Okay. I don't think I've played with scum KJ in forever (I've wolfed against him a couple of times IIRC semi-recently) so I will continue to monitor how he is playing.
I like that you're willing to re-eval on these points.
Quote from Proph »
Quote from Cantripmancer »
I can see what you're saying a bit with 19 and 25, but I'm really not seeing the reactiveness of 8 or 29. I know you've recently re-evaluated Wisp townward, but given the conviction you were showing based on early game meta comparison, right now it just looks like you've decided that trying to get Wisp mis-eliminated isn't worth the effort and you're going to push elsewhere. (I saw your explanation, and I don't want to ask you to provide more detail because I generally agree with what you "found", but your change in position is a bit, as you say, jarring.)
The reason why I thought his post 8 was clumsy was because he didn't lead off with an RVS vote, and he did a LOT of this type of behavior when we wolfed together in Darling. (At first I thought this was indicative of wolf him, but thinking about it more critically I think it means he might be town, because I don't think he would do this type of outreach if he rolled scum again)
Fair.
Quote from Proph »
Post 29 still strikes me as a little weird. Not really sure what he is implying when he says "hmm, hard debate on which of you I would kill first". Does he mean in a hypothetical world where he randed scum, he would have trouble figuring out which one of me or DV to nightkill N1?
That's what I took it as, but maybe @Wisp could confirm?
Up until less than 12 hours ago, we were bifurcated on Wisp as well, and I think there's a good chance you're mafia, so are you really that surprised that our reads don't align? Looking forward to you sorting and responding to my questions.
I'm surprised because I think we have similar playstyles and ways of approaching the game. I'm also town, so I'm trying to figure out if you pushing me is you attempting to actively sort me or if you are trying to get me mislunched. (Gun to head, I think it's the former, but I know your scumgame is good - which is why I am putting you at arm's length)
Ok. I mean, even if you say we have similar playstyles (which I agree with), feelings about any given individual's posts are going to vary from player to player, so...yeah.
My scumread on DV boils down to a couple of things:
1) Out of all of the votes on the Crossbell wagon, his feels the most agenda-driven. With an exception, he's been pretty gung-ho about not liking Crossbell or I. I fear that he may be trying to chain mislunches (he's tunnelling Crossbell, then when he flips town he will shift to focus to me)
2) I feel like his posts have been kind of narrow? Like he doesn't show much insight into his thought process for his townreads, and he went from post 223 to 327 without really catching up.
3) PoE. Think if Crossbell is town, there's likely at least scum on his wagon. I like Grape atm, and DoTA may be town. We'll see on Axel after he completes his catchup.
I have to say that I do like this post from DV though. It's self meta, but it reads as somewhat genuine.
Quote from DV »
This is a severe misunderstanding of my scum rage game play. Typically as scum I argue about pendantic ***** to appear playing the game and then get annoyed by players ignoring my correct statements.
Its likely hard for players to seperate that from my town game play, because my town play focused on specific things but for me it was always with a purpose. Maybe not a purpose that other players understood, but a purpose none the less. Largely my town reads/gameplay in the last 5(? more maybe) years hyper evolved into me taking an active role to get players to respond to me to see these specific things/meta reads and that turned into me largely bullying people/becoming more toxic as I took the game too seriously.
My scum games I'd just get mad because people would say that something I did was a scum tell or something really dumb and then I'd just use that as a cover for my aimlessness which is in my opinion always been my biggest scum tell. Really though what I'm trying to get across is that it wasn't fake, it was always anger misplaced as it may have been.
This is feeling more like town!Proph.
I have no more responses, but I do have more thoughts, but I'm also out of time. So more when I can.
He also skips giving an opinion on Grape, who by this point has engaged with several players and posted a Crossbell/Osie ISO.
As for his last paragraph, I agree with what Wisp said in 502, 503 and 506. I don't see how KJ got to a scumread of D_V and Wisp there, his reasoning seems flimsy.
I also didn't like the hammer post. In his post above he says Osie is "fine I guess".
Four posts later (the posts between are talking to Wisp and D_V):
A lot of his posts, when read individually didn't do much for me. Tone was fine, I guess. For the most part.
There were a few things that were off though when I ISO'd him just now.
Firstly, in 98, he had a lot of words for why DV was scum, but still had Axel as biggest scum for some reason.
I also don't think he and Wisp are scum together for the back and forth between them following this being very awkward.
But the biggest problem for me ends up being his progression onto his scumreads. As of 197, he was scumreading DV and Axel still as far as I could tell, but he offers to vote DotA with DV (who I don't think he'd said anyone about at that point) which... really makes no sense to me.
By 256 his reads don't seem to really have any substance, he's on Axel and DotA now, and he still really hasn't said too much about DotA yet.
By 360 he's flipped on me out of nowhere, now I'm suddenly a possibility and he's seriously entertaining me being scum despite continuously saying he thought I was town for various reasons.
All in all he feels like he's just kinda trying to yeet someone that he doesn't actually naturally scumread.
So that's what I got from his ISO. TBH I didn't really try really hard to read him before because I'm always so bad at it, and was gonna put it off till over Night/Tomorrow just because I didn't want to deal with it. So, er, sorry about that?
He now has a scum read of Osie, but doesn't believe Osie and Wisp could be scum together.
Then...
I'm just gonna blatantly copy Axel and ISO Cantrip first because 12 posts.
Cantrip seems at first glance to not be putting as much thought into his reads as I'm used to. 151 is obviously fairly shallow. Particularly his scumlean of DV. He says he hates reading DV, which I interpret as he thought a lot/everything DV was doing was scummy... but there's no specifics. Cantrip is the type of player who would have specific reasons for disliking someone generally, and his choice not to specify those reasons in his list here doesn't actually make a whole lot of sense to me. Actually there's a second possible meaning to "I hate reading DV" and that's that he just dislikes trying to discern his alignment... but then the Scumlean comes out of nowhere and still has no stated reasons. Note: He says of DotA: Townlean for insight into my play.
In 241 is progression on his DotA read. It's notable because it's kinda just a reaction to DotA's vote on Cross, but contradicts Proph's read on the same vote. Cantrip seems to come down on it being a townie post from DotA.
In 245, he says "It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ." @Cantrip: What games have I been scum against you? I can't remember.
It's entirely possible this read is actually fake in order to placate Proph here. This kinda makes me think that Proph and Cantrip are unaligned, because Cantrip probably doesn't make a potentially demonstrably false statement like this to placate his buddy during theatre.
Note: he (possibly jokingly) claims that DV might be town for, I assume, a natural sounding post 178.
In 265: "That is...a weird way to conclude your statement. Your suspicion of Cross is apparent, so I get that you think they're either W/W or T/W, but why say it this way instead of just pondering whether Axel is a buddy or not? That doesn't seem to jive with your "are they trying to figure each other out" possibility, either, as that would only happen with T/T." This feels nitpicky, His point wrt DotA is that is doesn't mesh with DotA's assertion that Axel and Crossbell potentially weren't actually trying to figure each other out (which implies that they are buddies performing theatre) but Cantrip has issues with the way DotA worded his argument, acting as if DotA contradicted himself when he really didn't. I'm not sure there's a remarkable difference between asking if Axel and Cross were buddies and saying DotA didn't think it's T/T, or even a difference between asking if it's T/W or W/W.
In conclusion: I'm actually thinking he might be a wolf here, because I'm not seeing the extensive probing I'm used to, and specfically I'm not seeing thoughtful Cantrip I'm used to seeing. I don't think this is time constraints, I think it's just Cantrip acting abnormal.
Coloring added to seperate quotes from my thoughts.
K so I think based on gameflow, perhaps the scum build of this game is one low poster/one high poster. This game doesn't feel overly dominated by scum (there's not like a couple townreads dominating the game that were somehow not nightkilled N1 or something like that) so not exactly Wisp/Proph.
I feel like Axel is being really passive to be the lead scum. He's making a lot of big opinion posts, but isn't pushing really. Axel hasn't really been too proactive either, so he could be scum.
Grape has 4 wolf reads in the GTHH in 775, which is unusual for scum to do. Also his progression on his reads feel natural.
Between Wisp and Proph, in the event that I'm right here and there's one in the top posters... I think Proph is less liekly to be scum there.
Axel or DotA + Wisp for scum? The scum don't really have another really good leader, and I feel like they have one.
Now the scum team is Wisp and Axel or Wisp and myself.
He shoots out a couple of.. I believe? Questions with out follow up.
Quote from Killjoy »
Hey DV, I'd like to know why you think Crossbell potentially has inside info for what is obviously a reaction to Proph's play? That post is obviously "Proph is town [based on something unsaid as of yet] but you jumped straight to inside info/discrediting. What gives there?
Quote from Killjoy »
@Dota: "There is some engagement around page 4/5 between Axel and Crossbell but are they trying to figure each other out or just posting for the sake of having spoken to one another. I don't know if this makes them W/W or T/W but I have a gut feeling that it's not T/T." If one of the possibilities is 'trying to figure each other out, wouldn't T/T be possible there? What specifically makes you lean that they are not [both] doing that which would specifically make it a not t/t interaction?
Quote from Killjoy »
I'm rereading now, but I feel the need to ask this important game-altering question.
Wisp: any entrance based reads?
He says that DV/Cross are an unaligned pair, a read that is now moot because both flipped town.
Quote from Killjoy »
Proph: How rusty are you feeling this game?
Quote from Killjoy »
When I'm reading your posts, I see a lot of myself in them. Old me who asked a lot of questions that perhaps I didn't think about in too much depth first. It's unlike you.
Like when you compare Axel calling himself town in the first post and Cross doing it. The intent is very different I think. Cross meant it to be more subtle. Axel was very open with it. It's not the same.
Quote from Killjoy »
Last game I recall was... Winterfell? I tunnelled you like crazy and I think Seppel had to talk me down.
Bear in mind I'm not saying you're scum for seeming rusty. I just noticed your questions are not as good as they usually are.
Here's the little micro interaction that... I would say looks decent for killjoy, but the fact that his read on me basically stopped at that is a little worrying. Plus, the fact that I specifically prodded him why he asked that question removes a little bit of the townpoints I was giving him for it.
Quote from Killjoy »
Sorry I haven't been as present a lot. Work has been stressful.
Anyway, I think Axel might be town. Early game he got a fair amount of hate for his typical playstyle (in which he doesn't usually start Doing Things until not early game) and that makes me feel like he was a target for scum. I'm confident enough in this at least to put him in the Not Yeeting Today pile.
Proph as I said earlier reminds me of me when I'm trying to get info, and a rusty Proph who isn't used to needing to solve as town probably fits that criteria.
I don't really have a specific opinion on Cantrip as of now. He's one of the Tricksy Hobbits and uses a lot of words. I think I'd prefer overNight to try to figure him out.
I had no good opinion on Osiebell. Osie being Proph is not Osie enough for me to judge him outright. His posts were... fine I guess?
DotA had some decent posts but has not a lot of content, so he's not out of the PoE I suppose but he's not on my chopping block right now.
I need to reread Grape honestly because I just straight up don't remember things from him.
The two people I think currently are scum are DV and Wisp. DV has aggressively jumped on at least Proph for minutia and has also been hedgy in a bad way. Wisp I specifically think is scum for his progression on me. He keeps maintaining (353, 417, 432) that I've been really null. I feel like it's not just an opinion of his, he's trying to convince others of it, possibly to counteract the townleans people seem to have developed on me. He's not scumreading me as of now, so why is he pushing so hard that other's should not be townreading me? I think he knows I'm town and misyeetable so he's trying to preserve that.
Vote Wisp
I'm also fine with an extesion, espceially so GJ can catch up fully etc.
He thinks Axel might be town because his playstyle usually attracts the attention of scum. Something I think I asked KJ back then was what scum specifically were pressuring him, since he had a null read on Osie (who was pressuring Axel the most back then) and he was scumreading Wisp. I am not sure if I ever got a response back to that question.
Quote from Killjoy »
Proph as I said earlier reminds me of me when I'm trying to get info, and a rusty Proph who isn't used to needing to solve as town probably fits that criteria.[quote] His read on me kinda stops from here? Though he did call me mafia in one of his most recent posts, so again, I am interested in seeing his progression as it pertains to me.
[quote=Killjoy]I don't really have a specific opinion on Cantrip as of now. He's one of the Tricksy Hobbits and uses a lot of words. I think I'd prefer overNight to try to figure him out.
I had no good opinion on Osiebell. Osie being Proph is not Osie enough for me to judge him outright. His posts were... fine I guess?
DotA had some decent posts but has not a lot of content, so he's not out of the PoE I suppose but he's not on my chopping block right now.
I need to reread Grape honestly because I just straight up don't remember things from him.
The two people I think currently are scum are DV and Wisp. DV has aggressively jumped on at least Proph for minutia and has also been hedgy in a bad way. Wisp I specifically think is scum for his progression on me. He keeps maintaining (353, 417, 432) that I've been really null. I feel like it's not just an opinion of his, he's trying to convince others of it, possibly to counteract the townleans people seem to have developed on me. He's not scumreading me as of now, so why is he pushing so hard that other's should not be townreading me? I think he knows I'm town and misyeetable so he's trying to preserve that.
Vote Wisp
I'm also fine with an extesion, espceially so GJ can catch up fully etc.
He did reread Cantrip and came to the conclusion that he could likely be scum on Day 2, so he did at least follow up with that read.
Quote from Killjoy »
That's quite a post.
@Wisp:So first of all, you seem to be implying that you saying that I'm really null somehow means that you want to yeet me, which is why you countered with "but I said I didn't want you dead" or whatever, but that's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that you saying that I'm really null so much is an attempt to persuade others of this, possibly in counter to others townreading me. I interepretted this as an attempt to drive the conversation subtly in that direction.
Like, imagine a conversation about you. "Wisp is a great dude" I say.
Just that, it's an opinion. It's just kinda sitting there. Others are talking about you, saying various things. DV is trying real hard to figure out what your name means. GJ is talking about the ecology of Will-o-the-Wisps from Scottish folklore. Proph is describing the shrine he has of you in his bedroom.
So a bit later, I pop in with another "Wisp is a great dude". The more I say this, the less passive it is. It's not just "I think he's cool" but now it's starting to move towards "and I think you should think so too". Conversation continues. DV: "WISP WHY". GJ: "And the Faeries in Ireland..." Proph: "Wisp body pillow"
Then I come in again "great dude". It's meant to be persuasive now. I said it again.
So, back to reality here: Just because you say you weren't gonna yeet me doesn't mean you weren't trying to degrade the townread on me to make yeeting me easier later. That was what I was saying there, that that's what I felt you were doing.
Second of all, DV. I know you've played with me enough to get how I do things. Obviously I haven't posted much this game, but activity is not alignment indicative for me, you know that. When did I think DV was scum? here. I thought that was DV showing his hand a bit. DV saw that Cross thought that Proph might be town, and instead of analyzing that info and trying to discern it's origin, he assumes the reason and jumps straight to "inside info" which does not logically follow. It was obviously just "Osie saw something that he thought was indicative of Proph's town game". Potentially manufacturing a scummy reason for that is bloodthirsty scum material. I'd argue he's doing the same with me when he said I claimed scum. Like, I made a post he supposedly disagreed with and in response... I'm scum. He doesn't seem to care why I hold this opinion, he just wants me gone. And that's not what town do typically.
Thirdly, I feel like trying to force me to have an opinion on someone I'm null on isn't gonna tell you much about my alignment, but I'll give it a go.
@DV: I'd say react inquisitively to my 'attack'. You don't have to kill everything that has a scumread on you.
Proph: I'll answer you vis a vis Axel's detractors after I finish rereading Osie.
This post.
I keep coming back to it.
This post is one of the most mindset-illuminating posts from KJ, and I think it's important because of the way he is talking to Wisp about.. Wisp degrading a townread on him? Then he goes into an example/anecdote talking about how KJ repeating "Wisp is a great dude" becomes more and more persuasive over time. Anyways, the post is KJ trying to explain to Wisp why KJ is scumreading him.. I think? Part of me wants to say that KJ is not creative enough as scum to come up with this example/anecdote of sorts, but I dunno. Plus this tone KJ is adopting makes me think that KJ is talking down to Wisp in some form or fashion. I just have NO idea what that means for KJ's alignment. He does a lot of noteworthy, strange things in this post, but I just can't really make heads or tails about it. Maybe my reading comprehension is failing me, but that's what I have WRT this post.
Quote from Killjoy »
It would be hilarious if in the last game on MTGS, I actually catch scum.
This post feels genuine-ish though. A small statement but a noteworthy one.
Quote from Killjoy »
Also Cross might be scum btw.
Quote from Killjoy »
So, Crossbell.
A lot of his posts, when read individually didn't do much for me. Tone was fine, I guess. For the most part.
There were a few things that were off though when I ISO'd him just now.
Firstly, in 98, he had a lot of words for why DV was scum, but still had Axel as biggest scum for some reason.
I also don't think he and Wisp are scum together for the back and forth between them following this being very awkward.
But the biggest problem for me ends up being his progression onto his scumreads. As of 197, he was scumreading DV and Axel still as far as I could tell, but he offers to vote DotA with DV (who I don't think he'd said anyone about at that point) which... really makes no sense to me.
By 256 his reads don't seem to really have any substance, he's on Axel and DotA now, and he still really hasn't said too much about DotA yet.
By 360 he's flipped on me out of nowhere, now I'm suddenly a possibility and he's seriously entertaining me being scum despite continuously saying he thought I was town for various reasons.
All in all he feels like he's just kinda trying to yeet someone that he doesn't actually naturally scumread.
So that's what I got from his ISO. TBH I didn't really try really hard to read him before because I'm always so bad at it, and was gonna put it off till over Night/Tomorrow just because I didn't want to deal with it. So, er, sorry about that?
I can buy this progression on Osie? Of course, I'm pretty sure this was in the waning hours of Day 1 where I was aggressively defending him, but KJ claiming to have him as null and then scumreading him later because he actually read Osie's posts probably makes sense.
Quote from Killjoy »
@Proph: Can you go a little more into why you think Osieslot is town? His progression was really weird about people.
Quote from Killjoy »
I don't think Proph can be scum with anyone but GJ for that post, perhaps? Like, why does Proph hard defend the de facto easy town yeet there?
This is all fine.
Quote from Killjoy »
I'm not sure he's being malicious.
Just irrationally emotionally driven maybe.
This is where he reverses his scumread on DV.
Quote from Killjoy »
I actually don't think DV is scum rn.
Reversal on his DV read with no in-thread progression.
Quote from Killjoy »
I'm willing to go GJ or Last right now I think.
Quote from Killjoy »
Vote GJ
Screw it. I thought I had more time.
Quote from Killjoy »
This is the best place to vote I think. I'm not sure GJ is town like you are.
This makes sense and lines up with what he has stated in thread.
----
Day 2
Quote from Killjoy »
I don't think I could leave so simple an answer for this.
Slightly townie in a vacuum? Scum would just answer Wisp's query, right, and not invite negative attention on them by intentionally refusing to answer this?
Quote from Killjoy »
I need to reexamine the GJ wagon first.
Okay. Let's see if he does this analysis.
Quote from Killjoy »
I'm just gonna blatantly copy Axel and ISO Cantrip first because 12 posts.
Cantrip seems at first glance to not be putting as much thought into his reads as I'm used to. 151 is obviously fairly shallow. Particularly his scumlean of DV. He says he hates reading DV, which I interpret as he thought a lot/everything DV was doing was scummy... but there's no specifics. Cantrip is the type of player who would have specific reasons for disliking someone generally, and his choice not to specify those reasons in his list here doesn't actually make a whole lot of sense to me. Actually there's a second possible meaning to "I hate reading DV" and that's that he just dislikes trying to discern his alignment... but then the Scumlean comes out of nowhere and still has no stated reasons. Note: He says of DotA: Townlean for insight into my play.
In 241 is progression on his DotA read. It's notable because it's kinda just a reaction to DotA's vote on Cross, but contradicts Proph's read on the same vote. Cantrip seems to come down on it being a townie post from DotA.
In 245, he says "It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ."
@Cantrip: What games have I been scum against you? I can't remember.
It's entirely possible this read is actually fake in order to placate Proph here. This kinda makes me think that Proph and Cantrip are unaligned, because Cantrip probably doesn't make a potentially demonstrably false statement like this to placate his buddy during theatre.
Note: he (possibly jokingly) claims that DV might be town for, I assume, a natural sounding post 178.
In 265: "That is...a weird way to conclude your statement. Your suspicion of Cross is apparent, so I get that you think they're either W/W or T/W, but why say it this way instead of just pondering whether Axel is a buddy or not? That doesn't seem to jive with your "are they trying to figure each other out" possibility, either, as that would only happen with T/T." This feels nitpicky, His point wrt DotA is that is doesn't mesh with DotA's assertion that Axel and Crossbell potentially weren't actually trying to figure each other out (which implies that they are buddies performing theatre) but Cantrip has issues with the way DotA worded his argument, acting as if DotA contradicted himself when he really didn't. I'm not sure there's a remarkable difference between asking if Axel and Cross were buddies and saying DotA didn't think it's T/T, or even a difference between asking if it's T/W or W/W.
In conclusion: I'm actually thinking he might be a wolf here, because I'm not seeing the extensive probing I'm used to, and specfically I'm not seeing thoughtful Cantrip I'm used to seeing. I don't think this is time constraints, I think it's just Cantrip acting abnormal.
Coloring added to seperate quotes from my thoughts.
This is him analyzing specifically Cantrip. Axel did not come to a very charitable conclusion regarding Cantrip, and KJ is similar. His thoughts and his conclusion are good IMO.
Quote from Killjoy »
K so I think based on gameflow, perhaps the scum build of this game is one low poster/one high poster. This game doesn't feel overly dominated by scum (there's not like a couple townreads dominating the game that were somehow not nightkilled N1 or something like that) so not exactly Wisp/Proph.
I feel like Axel is being really passive to be the lead scum. He's making a lot of big opinion posts, but isn't pushing really. Axel hasn't really been too proactive either, so he could be scum.
Grape has 4 wolf reads in the GTHH in 775, which is unusual for scum to do. Also his progression on his reads feel natural.
Between Wisp and Proph, in the event that I'm right here and there's one in the top posters... I think Proph is less liekly to be scum there.
Axel or DotA + Wisp for scum? The scum don't really have another really good leader, and I feel like they have one.
This is where his flip-flopping of his reads begins. In the early game, he said that he was saying that Axel was getting a lot of heat so he might be town. But now he's saying that Axel might be scum (well, he says it in a more roundabout way - a way I've broken down and questioned him about yesterday)
He is still stuck on Wisp for scum. He hasn't mentioned anything about Wisp since Day 2 started as well. He also might think that DoTA is scum.
Quote from Killjoy »
Eco is down there too obviously. I didn't include him because I already made a post on him.
You/Eco makes sense as well.
It could be a middling player with a lower player if you're not scum I suppose.
So he is officially suspecting... Axel, Wisp, DoTA, and Eco?
Quote from Killjoy »
Axel isn't eliminated as a wolf, but it's unlikely.
Why is it BS?
He says that it is unlikely that Axel is a wolf now?
Quote from Killjoy »
How am I sahding you and proph? I'm literally saying "I think there's scum in X and Y". Do you dispute my reasoning? Doi you not think theres a scum in the high posters and low posters? Why not? I've presented why I think this, feel free to talk about why that's wrong.
And no I'm not trying to see you as town. That's now how I'm playing the game. Sorry if that method doesn't mesh with how you would like others to play mafia.
I'm not seeing why you think I should see you as e facto town and why Axel should be completely eliminated from the PoE. I never fully eliminate people from the PoE unless there's mechanics involved because nonmechanical stuff is highly subjective.
Him saying that he never fully eliminates people from the PoE is kinda ehh because that means that he can always justify a lunch on anybody - ie, he will never have true townreads. I don't really know how KJ is trying to solve the game here.
Quote from Killjoy »
I actually don't hate Wisps response to me though. Maybe my read is wrong
I can believe this reads change.
Quote from Killjoy »
I'm not backing down because conflict, I'm backing down because I've played with Wisp a fair bit and his jumping on me for not townreading him and Proph isn't something scum Wisp tends to do. He's not the type to think that he's being the paragon of towniness as scum, nor would he start a fight to try to change my opinion like that.
And I've just been wondering if this gamesize will produce good VCA honestly. It's what I normally gravitate to but this game is really small and has much less info.
I'll still try it, but I'm wondering if it won't produce much.
This post also reads as honest.
Quote from Killjoy »
I guess Proph wolf, wisp town, grape town, axel town, dota town eco scum.
I still have no idea how he has come to the conclusion of me being a wolf and DoTA being town, after he just said that he was scumreading Axel/Wisp/Eco/DoTA. He took Wisp out of this but his progression on everyone else is confusing. And I don't know why he is scumreading me.
i have no idea what is going on inside killjoy's brain
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
man less than 12 hours before EoD, and we get his a decent post from Dota
and I can't even tell if he is just trying to save himself by pushing something maliciously, because he is absolutely correct about Killjoy's progression lmao
So, I think I'm basically punting on Proph and LW at this point. If one of them is scum, I just don't think I am catching them. Like, maybe if I was in a final 3 situation with one of them which I do not think is going to happen.
Axel Proph LW
Grape
Killjoy
These two guys feel kind of similar. They both have posted stuff I liked all right, and I at least have reasons for belief they could be Town.
Eco
DoTA
I might possibly be willing to move Eco over DoTA because the fact is he's posting all right. I gotta look again at how bad I thought Cantrip was. But voting outside these bottom two seems bad.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Definitely prefer this over Dota and I think I prefer it over Eco. Dota isn't buddied with Proph as I've said before. His reevaluation today doesn't mean as much because he's already been called out on it. As for Eco his heavy interactions with Proph don't strike me as W/W stuff. Feels like Eco is genuinely trying to figure Proph out despite having him as a town read. Time to actually read the walls and reply to stuff.
I think gun to head KJ is town but I have heavy reservations.
The reason why I'm saying this is because throughout KJ's ISO, there are faint glimmers of his mindset and genuineness that I think would be unintuitive for him to fake. (Him responding to Wisp with the whole anecdote about body pillows and will-o-wisps, him doing the random-ass reads reversal on DV at EoD, him saying maybe it will be the first time he catches scum on the last game on this site)
Meanwhile, DoTA's case on KJ is factually accurate, but I don't see any windows into his mindset at all. No "oh well I was wrong on GJ, sorry guys, time to solve once again". Just a flat case on KJ, a vote, and nothing else. I think it's a mistake to let someone with that low of content level stay alive. So yeah. That's where I am.
K so I think based on gameflow, perhaps the scum build of this game is one low poster/one high poster. This game doesn't feel overly dominated by scum (there's not like a couple townreads dominating the game that were somehow not nightkilled N1 or something like that) so not exactly Wisp/Proph.
Why do you think there is a mafia in the high posters, if you don't believe that the game is overly dominated by scum?
The options I was looking at was" 2 high posters/1 high 1 low/ 2 middling/ 1 low 1 middling/ 1 middling 1 high/ 2 low.
Now, it's not 2 high posters because this game doesn't feel like the game isn't being dominated by scum.
I guess it could be two low posters, if that's the case, it's likely just DotA/Eco. I don't recall Cantrip or DotA really getting much flak D1 so there's a possiblilty for them to potentially coast through the first day, but now the new Day brought DotA being under fire, with Cantripslot kinda getting some today as well.
A similar case can be made for 1 middle 1 low, with the middling player not really being a driving force for scum. In this case Axel or Grape would be the middle player with Eco or DotA being the low.
1 middle 1 high would feel pretty similar to 2 high, but just not as much. I do not think this is the case.
2 middle would mean that Grape and Axel are scum together, and if that's the case, they are kinda just having the luckiest game ever. Their gameplan is kinda just "act townie and hope we don't get yeeted" which... would be working I suppose. Would scumGrape+scum!Axel do that? I think at the very least Axel would be doing more to increase their win percentage, as just hoping not to be yeeted doesn't usually work out very well.
1 high 1 low would have one person doing all the work with the other just kinda trying to survive, although if Eco is the low player he's made quite an effort to catch up and do things so maybe it would feel different in cases with scum!Eco. I think D1 there was a drive to yeet town from somewhere, and that might have come from scum.
So it's most likely 1 high 1 low or 2 low posters and town is going crazy. I'm leaning the former because it has the higher win percentage usually, as opposed to both scum lurking and town being crazy.
Quote from Killjoy »
I feel like Axel is being really passive to be the lead scum. He's making a lot of big opinion posts, but isn't pushing really. Axel hasn't really been too proactive either, so he could be scum.
What does this statement even mean?
"I feel like Axel is too passive to be the lead scum." implies that you don't think he is the "lead scum". Then you say that he's making a lot of big opinion posts but isn't pushing anywhere and that he hasn't been proactive, so you think that he "could be scum". What do you mean by all of this? And if you think Axel is mafia, why aren't you pushing or interrogating him?
If Axel is scum he's not the one driving the scum agenda. And I don't actively think he's scum.
Quote from Killjoy »
Axel or DotA + Wisp for scum? The scum don't really have another really good leader, and I feel like they have one.
Do you have any behavioral evidence to base this off of, or is it just all working off of your theory that the scum "need to have a leader"?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
So it's most likely 1 high 1 low or 2 low posters and town is going crazy. I'm leaning the former because it has the higher win percentage usually, as opposed to both scum lurking and town being crazy.
K so I think based on gameflow, perhaps the scum build of this game is one low poster/one high poster. This game doesn't feel overly dominated by scum (there's not like a couple townreads dominating the game that were somehow not nightkilled N1 or something like that) so not exactly Wisp/Proph.
Why do you think there is a mafia in the high posters, if you don't believe that the game is overly dominated by scum?
The options I was looking at was" 2 high posters/1 high 1 low/ 2 middling/ 1 low 1 middling/ 1 middling 1 high/ 2 low.
Now, it's not 2 high posters because this game doesn't feel like the game isn't being dominated by scum.
I guess it could be two low posters, if that's the case, it's likely just DotA/Eco. I don't recall Cantrip or DotA really getting much flak D1 so there's a possiblilty for them to potentially coast through the first day, but now the new Day brought DotA being under fire, with Cantripslot kinda getting some today as well.
A similar case can be made for 1 middle 1 low, with the middling player not really being a driving force for scum. In this case Axel or Grape would be the middle player with Eco or DotA being the low.
1 middle 1 high would feel pretty similar to 2 high, but just not as much. I do not think this is the case.
2 middle would mean that Grape and Axel are scum together, and if that's the case, they are kinda just having the luckiest game ever. Their gameplan is kinda just "act townie and hope we don't get yeeted" which... would be working I suppose. Would scumGrape+scum!Axel do that? I think at the very least Axel would be doing more to increase their win percentage, as just hoping not to be yeeted doesn't usually work out very well.
1 high 1 low would have one person doing all the work with the other just kinda trying to survive, although if Eco is the low player he's made quite an effort to catch up and do things so maybe it would feel different in cases with scum!Eco. I think D1 there was a drive to yeet town from somewhere, and that might have come from scum.
So it's most likely 1 high 1 low or 2 low posters and town is going crazy. I'm leaning the former because it has the higher win percentage usually, as opposed to both scum lurking and town being crazy.
This is like the worst thing you have posted, KJ. What does "this game doesn't feel like the game isn't being dominated by scum" even mean? It's like you have a theory - because you feel it?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
uh, what? If you're going to say things are "agenday" you have to explain what the scum agenda is. Because I'm reading those events essentially completely the opposite to you because I can't come up with a reason for mafia-Proph to have done them. If Proph was pushing the game where he wanted there were paths of significantly lower resistance he could have taken.
It's hard for me to imagine a lower resistance route than ending up with a PoE of you, KJ, and Dota while only ever voting Dota. He's also been backing out of direct confrontation other than at the EoD1 when he and DV went hammer and tongs.
If you're town here, who are the scum? I've been pushing you for nearly the entire Day phase, and Eco has since he replaced in. Who is pushing you in bad faith?
I've tried to get you to interact with the gamestate at large for nearly the entire Day phase, my dude.
KermitSippingTea.gif
Quote from KJ »
So it's most likely 1 high 1 low or 2 low posters and town is going crazy. I'm leaning the former because it has the higher win percentage usually, as opposed to both scum lurking and town being crazy.
Why would you assume you're living in the higher win% world? People are always trying to maximize their win% doesn't mean they're doing it effectively.
DoTA's D2 is a big pile of noting until his last post on Killjoy, which at least looks like he put some amount of effort into doing something (after promising to do something for awhile). I'm just looking at that one post now.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Small mountainous games are basically just throwing darts. I have determined.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Small mountainous games are basically just throwing darts. I have determined.
It's frustrating for me because I feel like I'm putting a *****ton of effort into this game, yet I know I could lose at any time.
I have to remind myself that 7p/2s mountainous is, significantly scumsided, but we knew this going in. Like, I've spent most of this Day phase just *hoping* my worldview is correct and I'm not getting snowed by somebody somewhere.
So it's most likely 1 high 1 low or 2 low posters and town is going crazy. I'm leaning the former because it has the higher win percentage usually, as opposed to both scum lurking and town being crazy.
Why do you think that me/Eco are a team then?
Cantripslot/Eco is a low poster, you are a high poster, so that fits. I have misgivings about Cantrip, and tbh I'm still undecided which of the two of you are the scum highposter if my theory is correct.I mostly said that because I was doubting that Wisp was scum.
TBH I'd never laid out all the possibilities in one place before and didn't realize that the 2 low postser possibility was so similar to the 1 high 1 low possibility. So it's entirely possible that neither you or wisp are scum... I'm looking over votecounts now to see what that tells me.
@Axel: Yes. It's a theory based quite a bit on less tangible things like gameflow and such. Do you not think that has any bearing here?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Axel: Yes. It's a theory based quite a bit on less tangible things like gameflow and such. Do you not think that has any bearing here?
No? It makes zero sense to me. This idea you seem to be pushing about "game flow" suggesting anything.
I mean, there could be a mafia among the high posters, and a mafia among the low posters, but you have zero reason for suspecting this as far as I can see. It seems about as accurate as stating that there is probably a mafia among (any random group of 3 people).
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
If I'm breaking down DoTA's post on KJ it seems to boil down to "Killjoy changed his reads a lot. And he said a lot of people could still be scum."
Which, I guess? KJ has been a bit all over, moreso on D2 I feel. I am a little sympathetic because I can't get a handle on very much either. But he did an independent iso of Cantrip and concluded "might be a wolf." Then when asked to list his "top two" said "DoTA + Wisp." But quickly added "Eco is down there too."
And more recently "Proph + Eco."
I really don't like this "One High, One Low" poster spec. Because it's like his "scum" read on Proph is entirely derived from it by virtue of now thinking Last might be Town (therefore, the other "high" poster is the scum.) He has got a pool of 4, and all he's doing is mixing and matching combinations of those 4, 1 high and 1 low. Which is bad.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I will have a hard time being around for the last hour of EoD.
Doubt village DoTA barely participates throughout the entirety of this game Day and then leaves a half baked case on KJ hours before deadline. That's not village behavior. That's "scum trying to coast to survive the Day" behavior. He hasn't made any attempt to solve or use his time productively Today. Just a notes-dump and a case + vote on KJ. No remorse/attempt to re-evaluate after the GJ mislunch. No attempt to talk to me or Eco about why we might be wrong.
I will be around for the next 50 minutes if anyone wants to talk with me.
I would rather lunch DoTA than KJ. If I'm wrong, then I will take full responsibility.
Also, this resistance I've come across when trying to lunch DoTA kind of makes me think I'm right. Because what scum wouldn't want to hop and vote/agree with me if they saw villager DoTA struggling?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Whatever. Y'all can do whatever you want. I've basically had it with this game.
I spent at least one hour each day, often more, working on trying to solve this game and then I just get hit with one of the fencesittiest reads on me I've ever seen.
No one wants to listen to me despite me posting two PBPAs today and a lot of real time.
I think that it's probable that one of the people actively pushing me (DotA, Wisp, with a side of Grape possibly) are scum. DotA's pretty all in on that, Wisp keeps coming back to it, Grape is pushing me over two scummier slots. I'm in a good position for scum here, being the townie that other townies would like to yeet. I'm scummy enough to get a good wagon on me but not so much that there's too much consensus there. So DotA, Wisp, Grape. Looking into them now.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Whatever. Y'all can do whatever you want. I've basically had it with this game.
I spent at least one hour each day, often more, working on trying to solve this game and then I just get hit with one of the fencesittiest reads on me I've ever seen.
No one wants to listen to me despite me posting two PBPAs today and a lot of real time.
Go off kings.
Well, if this is fake... I think you win this game scum!Proph.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I don’t know what the count is, but I’m okay voting DoTA.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I think that it's probable that one of the people actively pushing me (DotA, Wisp, with a side of Grape possibly) are scum. DotA's pretty all in on that, Wisp keeps coming back to it, Grape is pushing me over two scummier slots. I'm in a good position for scum here, being the townie that other townies would like to yeet. I'm scummy enough to get a good wagon on me but not so much that there's too much consensus there. So DotA, Wisp, Grape. Looking into them now.
no dota and eco are not scummier, your iso is filled to the brim with non-sense. We are evaluating u less on your content, rather how you present it, and go about your business. Trust me, I want nothing to do but to remove you from this game, but I'm just going to follow Proph instead of hedging anymore.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Dude, there are no role. How long does it take to say Town/Mafia....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
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This post: There's a few things in this post that I think sound fabricated.
His first point regarding Axel, it was Osie who had a scumread of him and a few people pointing out to Osie that his opening to the game was well within his meta. D_V, Proph, Wisp and Cantrip all disagreed with Osie about Axel to some degree, so I don't get where KJ comes up with the idea that Axel got a lot of heat.
Eleven of Cantrip's twelve posts were made before this one, and most people had formulated at least some opinion of him by this point. Accusing Cantrip of using a lot of words sounds like an excuse to skip giving a read on him. For posterity, this is all of Cantrip's posts up to this point:
He also skips giving an opinion on Grape, who by this point has engaged with several players and posted a Crossbell/Osie ISO.
As for his last paragraph, I agree with what Wisp said in 502, 503 and 506. I don't see how KJ got to a scumread of D_V and Wisp there, his reasoning seems flimsy.
I also didn't like the hammer post. In his post above he says Osie is "fine I guess".
Four posts later (the posts between are talking to Wisp and D_V):
Then...
before hammering GJ.
Day 2 begins and suddenly he has a scumread of Cantrip, who's only other mention was in the first post quoted:
And again, just a few posts later:
Now the scum team is Wisp and Axel or Wisp and myself.
Or Wisp and Eco (after Wisp calls him out on it)
So 4 players out of the remaining 7 are scumreads here according to him, and in his previous post he specifically states:
Vote: Killjoy
He shoots out a couple of.. I believe? Questions with out follow up.
He says that DV/Cross are an unaligned pair, a read that is now moot because both flipped town.
Here's the little micro interaction that... I would say looks decent for killjoy, but the fact that his read on me basically stopped at that is a little worrying. Plus, the fact that I specifically prodded him why he asked that question removes a little bit of the townpoints I was giving him for it.
He thinks Axel might be town because his playstyle usually attracts the attention of scum. Something I think I asked KJ back then was what scum specifically were pressuring him, since he had a null read on Osie (who was pressuring Axel the most back then) and he was scumreading Wisp. I am not sure if I ever got a response back to that question.
He did reread Cantrip and came to the conclusion that he could likely be scum on Day 2, so he did at least follow up with that read.
This post.
I keep coming back to it.
This post is one of the most mindset-illuminating posts from KJ, and I think it's important because of the way he is talking to Wisp about.. Wisp degrading a townread on him? Then he goes into an example/anecdote talking about how KJ repeating "Wisp is a great dude" becomes more and more persuasive over time. Anyways, the post is KJ trying to explain to Wisp why KJ is scumreading him.. I think? Part of me wants to say that KJ is not creative enough as scum to come up with this example/anecdote of sorts, but I dunno. Plus this tone KJ is adopting makes me think that KJ is talking down to Wisp in some form or fashion. I just have NO idea what that means for KJ's alignment. He does a lot of noteworthy, strange things in this post, but I just can't really make heads or tails about it. Maybe my reading comprehension is failing me, but that's what I have WRT this post.
This post feels genuine-ish though. A small statement but a noteworthy one.
I can buy this progression on Osie? Of course, I'm pretty sure this was in the waning hours of Day 1 where I was aggressively defending him, but KJ claiming to have him as null and then scumreading him later because he actually read Osie's posts probably makes sense.
This is all fine.
This is where he reverses his scumread on DV.
Reversal on his DV read with no in-thread progression.
This makes sense and lines up with what he has stated in thread.
----
Day 2
Slightly townie in a vacuum? Scum would just answer Wisp's query, right, and not invite negative attention on them by intentionally refusing to answer this?
Okay. Let's see if he does this analysis.
This is him analyzing specifically Cantrip. Axel did not come to a very charitable conclusion regarding Cantrip, and KJ is similar. His thoughts and his conclusion are good IMO.
This is where his flip-flopping of his reads begins. In the early game, he said that he was saying that Axel was getting a lot of heat so he might be town. But now he's saying that Axel might be scum (well, he says it in a more roundabout way - a way I've broken down and questioned him about yesterday)
He is still stuck on Wisp for scum. He hasn't mentioned anything about Wisp since Day 2 started as well. He also might think that DoTA is scum.
So he is officially suspecting... Axel, Wisp, DoTA, and Eco?
He says that it is unlikely that Axel is a wolf now?
Him saying that he never fully eliminates people from the PoE is kinda ehh because that means that he can always justify a lunch on anybody - ie, he will never have true townreads. I don't really know how KJ is trying to solve the game here.
I can believe this reads change.
This post also reads as honest.
I still have no idea how he has come to the conclusion of me being a wolf and DoTA being town, after he just said that he was scumreading Axel/Wisp/Eco/DoTA. He took Wisp out of this but his progression on everyone else is confusing. And I don't know why he is scumreading me.
i have no idea what is going on inside killjoy's brain
Don't worry Proph, neither do I.
and I can't even tell if he is just trying to save himself by pushing something maliciously, because he is absolutely correct about Killjoy's progression lmao
AxelProphLWGrape
Killjoy
These two guys feel kind of similar. They both have posted stuff I liked all right, and I at least have reasons for belief they could be Town.
Eco
DoTA
I might possibly be willing to move Eco over DoTA because the fact is he's posting all right. I gotta look again at how bad I thought Cantrip was. But voting outside these bottom two seems bad.
vote: Dota
This is L2 BTW, and we have about 3 and half hours left
Vote: KJ
Definitely prefer this over Dota and I think I prefer it over Eco. Dota isn't buddied with Proph as I've said before. His reevaluation today doesn't mean as much because he's already been called out on it. As for Eco his heavy interactions with Proph don't strike me as W/W stuff. Feels like Eco is genuinely trying to figure Proph out despite having him as a town read. Time to actually read the walls and reply to stuff.
I think gun to head KJ is town but I have heavy reservations.
The reason why I'm saying this is because throughout KJ's ISO, there are faint glimmers of his mindset and genuineness that I think would be unintuitive for him to fake. (Him responding to Wisp with the whole anecdote about body pillows and will-o-wisps, him doing the random-ass reads reversal on DV at EoD, him saying maybe it will be the first time he catches scum on the last game on this site)
Meanwhile, DoTA's case on KJ is factually accurate, but I don't see any windows into his mindset at all. No "oh well I was wrong on GJ, sorry guys, time to solve once again". Just a flat case on KJ, a vote, and nothing else. I think it's a mistake to let someone with that low of content level stay alive. So yeah. That's where I am.
Now, it's not 2 high posters because this game doesn't feel like the game isn't being dominated by scum.
I guess it could be two low posters, if that's the case, it's likely just DotA/Eco. I don't recall Cantrip or DotA really getting much flak D1 so there's a possiblilty for them to potentially coast through the first day, but now the new Day brought DotA being under fire, with Cantripslot kinda getting some today as well.
A similar case can be made for 1 middle 1 low, with the middling player not really being a driving force for scum. In this case Axel or Grape would be the middle player with Eco or DotA being the low.
1 middle 1 high would feel pretty similar to 2 high, but just not as much. I do not think this is the case.
2 middle would mean that Grape and Axel are scum together, and if that's the case, they are kinda just having the luckiest game ever. Their gameplan is kinda just "act townie and hope we don't get yeeted" which... would be working I suppose. Would scumGrape+scum!Axel do that? I think at the very least Axel would be doing more to increase their win percentage, as just hoping not to be yeeted doesn't usually work out very well.
1 high 1 low would have one person doing all the work with the other just kinda trying to survive, although if Eco is the low player he's made quite an effort to catch up and do things so maybe it would feel different in cases with scum!Eco. I think D1 there was a drive to yeet town from somewhere, and that might have come from scum.
So it's most likely 1 high 1 low or 2 low posters and town is going crazy. I'm leaning the former because it has the higher win percentage usually, as opposed to both scum lurking and town being crazy.
If Axel is scum he's not the one driving the scum agenda. And I don't actively think he's scum.
It's my theory, yeah.
It's hard for me to imagine a lower resistance route than ending up with a PoE of you, KJ, and Dota while only ever voting Dota. He's also been backing out of direct confrontation other than at the EoD1 when he and DV went hammer and tongs.
KermitSippingTea.gif
Why would you assume you're living in the higher win% world? People are always trying to maximize their win% doesn't mean they're doing it effectively.
I have to remind myself that 7p/2s mountainous is, significantly scumsided, but we knew this going in. Like, I've spent most of this Day phase just *hoping* my worldview is correct and I'm not getting snowed by somebody somewhere.
TBH I'd never laid out all the possibilities in one place before and didn't realize that the 2 low postser possibility was so similar to the 1 high 1 low possibility. So it's entirely possible that neither you or wisp are scum... I'm looking over votecounts now to see what that tells me.
@Axel: Yes. It's a theory based quite a bit on less tangible things like gameflow and such. Do you not think that has any bearing here?
I mean, there could be a mafia among the high posters, and a mafia among the low posters, but you have zero reason for suspecting this as far as I can see. It seems about as accurate as stating that there is probably a mafia among (any random group of 3 people).
Which, I guess? KJ has been a bit all over, moreso on D2 I feel. I am a little sympathetic because I can't get a handle on very much either. But he did an independent iso of Cantrip and concluded "might be a wolf." Then when asked to list his "top two" said "DoTA + Wisp." But quickly added "Eco is down there too."
And more recently "Proph + Eco."
I really don't like this "One High, One Low" poster spec. Because it's like his "scum" read on Proph is entirely derived from it by virtue of now thinking Last might be Town (therefore, the other "high" poster is the scum.) He has got a pool of 4, and all he's doing is mixing and matching combinations of those 4, 1 high and 1 low. Which is bad.
Doubt village DoTA barely participates throughout the entirety of this game Day and then leaves a half baked case on KJ hours before deadline. That's not village behavior. That's "scum trying to coast to survive the Day" behavior. He hasn't made any attempt to solve or use his time productively Today. Just a notes-dump and a case + vote on KJ. No remorse/attempt to re-evaluate after the GJ mislunch. No attempt to talk to me or Eco about why we might be wrong.
Burn the witch.
Though I've asked him to explain his scumread on me multiple multiple times now, and he has not done so.
I would rather lunch DoTA than KJ. If I'm wrong, then I will take full responsibility.
Also, this resistance I've come across when trying to lunch DoTA kind of makes me think I'm right. Because what scum wouldn't want to hop and vote/agree with me if they saw villager DoTA struggling?
I'm kinda at the point where "Proph has a lot of effort, it's probably townie effort, but I'm not gonna remove him from the PoE without more info."
Whatever. Y'all can do whatever you want. I've basically had it with this game.
I spent at least one hour each day, often more, working on trying to solve this game and then I just get hit with one of the fencesittiest reads on me I've ever seen.
No one wants to listen to me despite me posting two PBPAs today and a lot of real time.
Go off kings.
I'm voting dota
Vote: DoTA
Let's just do it.
Lets goooooooo
Vote Count:
DOTArchon - 4 (Ecophagy, Prophylaxis, LastWhisper, Axelrod)
Killjoy - 2 (DOTArchon, Grapefruit21)