Wisp is mostly all over the place, but I feel like he's getting there naturally. The out of nowhere pressureswitches are pretty fine, and aren't really in a conformist or "following the scummy town wagon" kinda way. He's kinda bouncing off the walls instead of maliciously targeting people who are low hanging fruit BECAUSE they are low hanging fruit (such as me or DotA).
Grape has a fairly higher than normal volume of buzzwords (see 543/544 for good examples). I also noticed he "Hmmmm"ed at Cantrip in 277, but I don't really see any follow up from that as of yet. There's also something to be said about tone, but that's not as reliable as positioning.
Cantrip hasn't done much as of this point, but it's of note that he started this game (stated at least twice) with a weak townread of me. I recognize that I didn't have much content as of ~250 or so by the time he had stated them. As of tat point, that's what I've got for him.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
This is a post near the end of D1. I think all the voters on Grape are town, and interestingly all of the scum in this case would be on Proph (which continues to make him town if that's the case). Also all of the unknowns are between Proph and Grape, which makes them less likely a team.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Dota had a few town pings in tone but not enough that I really got there on him. Definitely liked his version of the KJ special where he just did his own thing and chased it down.
Given all the remaining players
tell me in one word, if you think they are a wolf or town, without saying anything else. I don't want an explanation, you can leave that for another post. I just want, town or wolf, mafia or villager, and no nulls.
Proph: wolf
DoTA: wolf
Cantrip: wolf
Wisp: Town
Axelrod: town
KJ: Wolf
Have everyone but Wisp and Axel at slightly above random to be a wolf.
Grape: Explain this progression. Why the wolf on Cantrip when you've barely mentioned him all game up to this point? You've at least mentioned me and things I've done at that point as if you're trying to evauluate me, but you never really said much about Cantrip.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Reading Axel's wall on me and it has reminded me that I need to go reread the end of day. Definitely joining the chorus that the change in opinion on me through the wall just feels incredibly natural. Especially since given my lack of cache Axel could just try to bury me here with little chance of blowback. If he was scum he is A in great position and B definitely does not need to defend me there. Doesn't even feel like he was trying to leave himself a back door to come back to me tomorrow while putting me on the backburner to focus on Dota or Eco toDay.
Need to dive into Eco's entrance a bit deeper but I am trying to figure out the repeated interactions with Proph. The repeated invocation of playing devil's advocate just is pinging me. Proph is in the position of power here and I'm not sure why he's putting the WIFOM out there on his handling of Wisp and Eco's reaction to it. Feels overly defensive while still trying to maintain distance from his actions. Why is proph spilling wine about his own theoretical scum motivations here. Rather than just the more assertive tone he was using at EoD and garnering town reads from DV for, just feels wrong to me.
Okay. I guess I can buy this? Just to play devil's advocate a little more, I'm not sure that I would leave Wisp on the mislunch table as scum given that I had quite a fair bit of pushback in the early game when I called him scum. I think I was the only player to actively scumread him at that stage. But fair, I can buy this line of reasoning.
This is Grape's first real interaction with the slot in a while... and it's about how Proph is scummy?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Proph I need your help here on LW. During my reread I was nodding along with your early mafia-read of him - I thought he was overly defensive, inconsistent, trying pretty hard to seem relaxed/detached, and spent a lot of time agreeing and voting with you despite reading you as mafia. I picked out #230 as a broad "let's look at the low posters" very soon after you cased him in #181. Even in D2 while there's been more engagement he's been holding back waiting for results of this "game" which I'm very unimpressed by because needing to wait for everyone to answer is a great way to stall out when you have lurkers.
But, Proph, you've switched your read to pretty much ride or die town and I need you to help me because I don't get it. I get that you read him from a town mindset and it fit, and I can see some positives like it sounds like he's talking without a filter, and I think that his voting would be less erratic (or at least more tactical) if he was mafia. But I also feel like his votes have been pretty safe and he's tried quite hard to make sure we all know he's having trouble nailing down reads. So, uh, help please?
I have a few qusetions about this Eco, first why did you specifically ask Proph for help reading Wisp? Just because of the fact that he changed his read? I get that you ask a couple questions to him here but it feels like you could ask anyone town reading Wisp. Second what is your actual read? Do you think it's Wisp/Dota? Or are you just not convinced on him one way or another yet?
Here's the next interaction... gonna leave this here and evaluate it all at the same time I suppose.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Axel is never under pressure today. His ISO's have been pretty agendaless and have shown a sort of progression. It's lacking the curiosity that would lock the read in to ride or die but it's at the place where I wouldn't reevaluate him before a F3.
Wisp is just a bit below this for me. He's been mostly himself bouncing around and inconsistent with reads. The only time where there was any whiff of an agenda was at the EoD1 but that's gone again D2 and I'm currently happy to slot him into town.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
KJ
Prophylaxis
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
Proph just keeps coming back to scum for me. There just is an undercurrent of agenda to a lot of what he's doing. The Osie clear and urging to reveal the identity. The utterly bizarre in retrospect scum read and reversal on DV. The super eager to kill me to being more or less fine with me on D2. The complete focus on Dota before the last couple of hours. Just feels like he's pushing the game where he wants it to be rather than following what he's reading.
As a result I don't want Dota to die. Proph is absolutely trying to get him killed. He is clearly the dedicated condemn today and we should not kill him. He's been an absolute wet noodle but he's not scum with Proph and Proph is scum here.
That leaves Eco and KJ. Going to sort them. Eco has made a good inital impression on me but not enough to really get anywhere yet. KJ deciding to try and push Wisp in his 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf theory is definitely standing out to me right about now.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
KJ
Prophylaxis
Vote: Proph
@Grape: Explain your sorting of Eco at this point please? You've had a short conversation with him at this point, as I've noted. What left a good impression? Why is he so low otherwise?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Eco's walls on Proph and me are fine. I just don't have the time to dig into them right now but like I can't point to any massive red flags at a glance. And his little back and forth with Wisp about my EoD1 feels natural-ish, but like he kind of has to be scum here I think. I'll try to get back into this a bit more in depth but today is a bit busy and with Proph now looking like he might actually be town the game kind of feels easy. Wisp is never scum so if Proph is legit then it's solved.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
So, Grape's had Eco/Cantrip basically very low in his reads, but never really evaluating him, but despite being low in his reads also never suspecting him. All of his reads are colored by interactions with Proph (who is now cleared town) and are not evaluated on their own merits, but I don't think he gives the same treatment to Canrtip/Eco in that regard.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Alright, I must away. I've already voted so that's done.
I'm sorry I didn't put all the posts about Eco/Grape in one post, but they're all pretty much in the last 100 posts or so so they shouldn't be hard to find.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
- if the team is eco/KJ why would they both townread me and then set themselves up to vote each other off? makes a little more sense for GF to keep pushing me, eco to push KJ/grape, but both converge on KJ to end the game
- KJ's posts have been really poor and him stepping it up 24 hours prior to eod also sucks. but it's hard to see his posts come from a actual mafia mindset I feel. again he feels very oblivious and not in tune with the game state
there's something else that I wanted to mention but I forgot
I'm gonna feel really bad if Eco is town and we mislunch him
but I really do think he fits in most worlds
I don't think Grape/KJ is a thing, because the way Grape voted for KJ at EoD2 did not read like a bus/distancing attempt to me, and KJ soft shaded Grape on Day 1. Very weak interactions, but when we are dealing with two lurkers at the time then that was all I had work with.
If we discount that team then lunching Eco 100% guarantees us a scum flip. We just have to work out who is scum between KJ and Grape in f3. I expect one of us to be killed.
I'm really sorry. I just can't play the game right now.
I see Proph is back to thinking it's me. Which lol.
Going with my prior feeling since I'm way out of date. It's probably KJ/Eco but I'm still paranoid about Proph/KJ even though wisp is adamant that team doesn't make any sense.
I can't get over the fact that killjoy never once attempted to do anything with his thoughts, like you iso'd that other game where he was town, and he did things with his votes, it didn't matter how wrong he was. here like even thought he comes off as oblivious to the game state, he actively did nothing for the game state, except shade me and you, "a lot"
and me voting grape here, would be I am not listening to both DV and Axel who I find to be competent players. I just, idk man, there are so many things that can point to both killjoy being town and being a wolf.
For jumping a second vote on a town player before that player entered the thread.
On a scale of RVS to Final 3 how serious is this vote?
Firmly RVS.
Actually, have you considered it seriously? This game size is 3/4 of the usual size. From a theory standpoint, is the second vote on a hypothetical town player in RVS actually be more significant than not?
It might actually be.
I need to reread Grape honestly because I just straight up don't remember things from him.
Grape has 4 wolf reads in the GTHH in 775, which is unusual for scum to do. Also his progression on his reads feel natural.
K so I think based on gameflow, perhaps the scum build of this game is one low poster/one high poster. This game doesn't feel overly dominated by scum (there's not like a couple townreads dominating the game that were somehow not nightkilled N1 or something like that) so not exactly Wisp/Proph.
What would a game dominated by scum feel like? Just a weird N1 kill? Are there other things you'd expect to see?
Too much consensus (which could also mean that scum are sitting back and enjoy the game state) but that's not happening here. Or like, psudo consensus where town doesn't have to fight hard for their scumreads because scum knows they're wrong.
This game, we can't seem to come to a conclusion on who is the scum and who is not.
Too much consensus (which could also mean that scum are sitting back and enjoy the game state) but that's not happening here. Or like, psudo consensus where town doesn't have to fight hard for their scumreads because scum knows they're wrong.
This game, we can't seem to come to a conclusion on who is the scum and who is not.
I pretty strongly disagree with that assessment that the game isn't like that. There is broad consensus that Axel, Wisp, and Proph are townie (I'm a lone voice yelling against Proph. Wisp occasionally agrees with me but doesn't want to act on it first). There is broad consensus that the pool of Eco, you, and Dota contains at least one scum. D1 was pretty consensus'y on Osie/GJ right up till the end and still went back to it.
What makes you think that this game doesn't have consensus when Dota has been at majority -2 multiple times today and has m-1 in spirit from Proph?
Yeah there's gonna be SOME, but not TOO MUCH is my point.
Yeah there's a poE today of me. Eco and DotA have scum. That doesn't mean that that pool is all town, it likely just means that the scum isn't a high priority in it.
The scum would think in that case that they can survive the Day if we yeet the scummiest of those players. I'm guessing it's probably Eco if DotA is being so heavily pushed for (unless there's some bussing going on)
Now, it's not 2 high posters because this game doesn't feel like the game isn't being dominated by scum.
I guess it could be two low posters, if that's the case, it's likely just DotA/Eco. I don't recall Cantrip or DotA really getting much flak D1 so there's a possiblilty for them to potentially coast through the first day, but now the new Day brought DotA being under fire, with Cantripslot kinda getting some today as well.
A similar case can be made for 1 middle 1 low, with the middling player not really being a driving force for scum. In this case Axel or Grape would be the middle player with Eco or DotA being the low.
1 middle 1 high would feel pretty similar to 2 high, but just not as much. I do not think this is the case.
2 middle would mean that Grape and Axel are scum together, and if that's the case, they are kinda just having the luckiest game ever. Their gameplan is kinda just "act townie and hope we don't get yeeted" which... would be working I suppose. Would scumGrape+scum!Axel do that? I think at the very least Axel would be doing more to increase their win percentage, as just hoping not to be yeeted doesn't usually work out very well.
1 high 1 low would have one person doing all the work with the other just kinda trying to survive, although if Eco is the low player he's made quite an effort to catch up and do things so maybe it would feel different in cases with scum!Eco. I think D1 there was a drive to yeet town from somewhere, and that might have come from scum.
@Grape: I generally assume players play to win as best they can. If players aren't doing that, I feel like they would compensate somehow.
I think that it's probable that one of the people actively pushing me (DotA, Wisp, with a side of Grape possibly) are scum. DotA's pretty all in on that, Wisp keeps coming back to it, Grape is pushing me over two scummier slots. I'm in a good position for scum here, being the townie that other townies would like to yeet. I'm scummy enough to get a good wagon on me but not so much that there's too much consensus there. So DotA, Wisp, Grape. Looking into them now.
D2 was it, when he moved to Killjoy at the very end
I think, that with that vote, he had full intention of seeing Killjoy die there
If he is voting you, who is town, why move to a scum buddy, like why even try to get that wagon going
when Dota is ripe for the picking, there is just 0 reason imo
@Dota Welcome to the right side of history. Can you talk about the KJ distancing read though. I'm really confused what you think the significance of it is. KJ is more likely to be town because he pointed out an interaction could be distancing? Are you an MTG player? Because Axel is right that Time Walk and Ancestral really do massively overshadow Timetwister to a massive degree. So if anything I'd put KJ making a point of it more likely to KJ trying to generate an interaction than anything to do with Axel. Now I'm not going to scum read him over it because that would be ridiculous, but I think I'd put it as a tiny unaligned between KJ and Axel if KJ were to flip scum. Think it's entirely meaningless from Axel's side though. His flip would mean nothing towards KJs.
I don't have a big problem with the ordering of either group (KJ, Dota, and Cantrip are murky soup) but I'm curious as to why you're "decently sure" that we're in a 1 and 1 situation? Based on the groupings it doesn't seem to be a team based read so I'm guessing it's some sort of game flow thing?
Calling my voting record abysmal is funny.
GJ doesn't really feel like a wolf here. Proph does. DV feels town. Wisp feels town. Axel feels town.
I can't remember a single post of KJs.
KJ and Cantrip I have nothing on
Dota had a few town pings in tone but not enough that I really got there on him. Definitely liked his version of the KJ special where he just did his own thing and chased it down.
KJ's hammer is just one of those black boxes that I just can't evaluate. I can project anything into it and it's just not as indicative as I want it to be. I like his posting being in his own world just chasing his own leads and not worrying about the larger game state. Usually points to town!KJ.
Proph: wolf
DoTA: wolf
Cantrip: wolf
Wisp: Town
Axelrod: town
KJ: Wolf
Have everyone but Wisp and Axel at slightly above random to be a wolf.
Ohhh. Well that's what I get for relying on the first post where he is janitored or something.
The game feels so relaxed. Maybe it's just weekend things but KJ and Axel didn't feel like people trying break the PoE open as scum.
The GJ was a sunk cost for you because of the Osie defense from early. Was a freeroll especially since your pivot target was me. Odds were against you stopping the wagon or permanently saving GJ if he did survive were next to nil. You lose nothing by defending him there and gain this line of defense. The only way it hurts you is if GJ survives and clears himself to the point where you have to NK him which was exceedingly unlikely.
The activity argument isn't as much of a slam dunk for you as it used to be but it's definitely a point in your favor. As is the EoD exchange with DV. Which is why I haven't vote you yet. I can make an active case on you but have doubts. With Eco, KJ, and Dota I can't really make a proactive case so I'm just kind of waiting for them to do something or to vote one at near random.
Been working on it. Definitely think the first is Proph. The second is probably Eco or KJ. Dota feels like the miss Proph is trying to push through before going to the rest of the PoE. Gun to my head I'd lean KJ right now but that will probably change as I do the reading today.
Axel is never under pressure today. His ISO's have been pretty agendaless and have shown a sort of progression. It's lacking the curiosity that would lock the read in to ride or die but it's at the place where I wouldn't reevaluate him before a F3.
Wisp is just a bit below this for me. He's been mostly himself bouncing around and inconsistent with reads. The only time where there was any whiff of an agenda was at the EoD1 but that's gone again D2 and I'm currently happy to slot him into town.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
KJ
Prophylaxis
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
Proph just keeps coming back to scum for me. There just is an undercurrent of agenda to a lot of what he's doing. The Osie clear and urging to reveal the identity. The utterly bizarre in retrospect scum read and reversal on DV. The super eager to kill me to being more or less fine with me on D2. The complete focus on Dota before the last couple of hours. Just feels like he's pushing the game where he wants it to be rather than following what he's reading.
As a result I don't want Dota to die. Proph is absolutely trying to get him killed. He is clearly the dedicated condemn today and we should not kill him. He's been an absolute wet noodle but he's not scum with Proph and Proph is scum here.
That leaves Eco and KJ. Going to sort them. Eco has made a good inital impression on me but not enough to really get anywhere yet. KJ deciding to try and push Wisp in his 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf theory is definitely standing out to me right about now.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
KJ
Prophylaxis
Vote: Proph
Because Proph is my strongest scum read. And if I'm right Dota isn't scum. So if we're not doing Proph I want to vote KJ. Because he and Proph have kind of been on similar pages here. At this point in a game you can't have your reads in a vacuum. You're asking me to evaluate Dota and KJ independent of my read on Proph. And I'm just not going to do that. I'll read their posts on their own merits but for overall reads you have to connect these things.
WHy doesn't it feel like KJ? I was town reading him earlier but his townie floatiness has diminished a bit and he's been more reactive lately. It has felt more and more like him to me.
@Proph I'll respond to the rest later but if you were confirmed town I'd have to completely reevaluate but my initial guess would be Dota/Eco.
Okay Proph isn't happening today.
Vote: KJ
Definitely prefer this over Dota and I think I prefer it over Eco. Dota isn't buddied with Proph as I've said before. His reevaluation today doesn't mean as much because he's already been called out on it. As for Eco his heavy interactions with Proph don't strike me as W/W stuff. Feels like Eco is genuinely trying to figure Proph out despite having him as a town read. Time to actually read the walls and reply to stuff.
Okay but that line of thought doesn't mesh with you finding Wisp to be a bit scummy. Because if Dota is being pushed as the fall guy then it isn't scum making that push. I guess Wisp is technically on Dota but he's much more interested in pushing you. Build a team for me. If someone in that pool isn't a high priority and there is a deep wolf what is happening? Just stating that idea and not chasing it down isn't a town thought. It's the appearance of trying to think holistically about the game without actually doing it.
Why would you assume you're living in the higher win% world? People are always trying to maximize their win% doesn't mean they're doing it effectively.
Actually, have you considered it seriously? This game size is 3/4 of the usual size. From a theory standpoint, is the second vote on a hypothetical town player in RVS actually be more significant than not?
It might actually be.
this post was so stupid lol
I need to reread Grape honestly because I just straight up don't remember things from him.
could be avoiding reading a partner?
Grape has 4 wolf reads in the GTHH in 775, which is unusual for scum to do. Also his progression on his reads feel natural.
He basically gives Grape a TWTBAW read here? at least that's how I interpret it. Can't really say why this is anything but NAI in terms of being a team or not
in the next two posts, Grape pretty much calls killjoy out with questioning and attacking his mindset.
The scum would think in that case that they can survive the Day if we yeet the scummiest of those players. I'm guessing it's probably Eco if DotA is being so heavily pushed for (unless there's some bussing going on)
again he mentions Eco being a "wolfier", the other example was when he shaded Eco, in a very partnery way
its so hard to read any of these though, because he simply did not vote any of his scum reads, ever, but he did vote Dota, over Eco at EoD, which is contradiction to the above statement
Killjoy writes a lot of information over analysis, with nothing to back it up
like a lot
Grape is pushing me over two scummier slots.
lmao... nmeither of which you are voting apparently, just feels like shade here
I'm scummy enough to get a good wagon on me but not so much that there's too much consensus there. So DotA, Wisp, Grape. Looking into them now.
god what are these posts, there isn't consensus, because both the top posters are hedging so hard on you because we are trying to read you. Such a nutty post
Just like, these specific interactions here make me think that KJ/Grape are unaligned. If they are aligned, then congrats, they distanced well and Grape bussed his buddy in f5 instead of voting Eco here. But I'm just gonna go through here:
For jumping a second vote on a town player before that player entered the thread.
On a scale of RVS to Final 3 how serious is this vote?
Firmly RVS.
Actually, have you considered it seriously? This game size is 3/4 of the usual size. From a theory standpoint, is the second vote on a hypothetical town player in RVS actually be more significant than not?
It might actually be.
Random shading of Grapefruit by asking if the second vote on a hypothetical town player is more significant than not. Again, if KJ/Grape are buddies, I see no reason for KJ to dunk his scumbuddy/draw attention to him like this.
Too much consensus (which could also mean that scum are sitting back and enjoy the game state) but that's not happening here. Or like, psudo consensus where town doesn't have to fight hard for their scumreads because scum knows they're wrong.
This game, we can't seem to come to a conclusion on who is the scum and who is not.
I pretty strongly disagree with that assessment that the game isn't like that. There is broad consensus that Axel, Wisp, and Proph are townie (I'm a lone voice yelling against Proph. Wisp occasionally agrees with me but doesn't want to act on it first). There is broad consensus that the pool of Eco, you, and Dota contains at least one scum. D1 was pretty consensus'y on Osie/GJ right up till the end and still went back to it.
What makes you think that this game doesn't have consensus when Dota has been at majority -2 multiple times today and has m-1 in spirit from Proph?
Yeah there's gonna be SOME, but not TOO MUCH is my point.
Yeah there's a poE today of me. Eco and DotA have scum. That doesn't mean that that pool is all town, it likely just means that the scum isn't a high priority in it.
The scum would think in that case that they can survive the Day if we yeet the scummiest of those players. I'm guessing it's probably Eco if DotA is being so heavily pushed for (unless there's some bussing going on)
This response from Grape "I pretty strongly disagree with that assessment that the game isn't like that" feels really aggro and I don't think it's a tone you want to adopt with your wolf buddy.
Man it doesn't feel like killjoy...
Idk why Grape is like this...
WHy doesn't it feel like KJ? I was town reading him earlier but his townie floatiness has diminished a bit and he's been more reactive lately. It has felt more and more like him to me.
@Proph I'll respond to the rest later but if you were confirmed town I'd have to completely reevaluate but my initial guess would be Dota/Eco.
This feels way more like a scum trying to opportunistically drag KJ down to a possible mislunch territory moreso than "why isn't it my scumbuddy"? If GF/KJ were buddies, then there's no reason for Grape to say this. He just lets Wisp talk himself out of his scumbuddy.
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Okay Proph isn't happening today.
Vote: KJ
Definitely prefer this over Dota and I think I prefer it over Eco. Dota isn't buddied with Proph as I've said before. His reevaluation today doesn't mean as much because he's already been called out on it. As for Eco his heavy interactions with Proph don't strike me as W/W stuff. Feels like Eco is genuinely trying to figure Proph out despite having him as a town read. Time to actually read the walls and reply to stuff.
And yes, this vote doesn't feel like a bus vote. Why would you push a counterwagon on your buddy when I'm pushing the town counterwagon in DoTA? You would either stick to me or lunch DoTA with me.
Also, if you look at GF's last page in his ISO, he says he wants to vote me but he shifts focus first to ISOing KJ. If it's KJ/Grape then I'm pretty sure you don't want to start off with ISOing your scumbuddy, you would just want to ISO me since Wisp/Eco could potentially be convinced into voting me at SoD3.
Grape just doesn't really talk to Killjoy like he is talking to a partner, and he at least puts his money where his mouth is
I agree yes.
And if we both agree on that, then Eco is scum.
We lunch him and then we'll see who the scum kill in f3 (probably me, I will take all the time in the world to analyze) then the game probably goes to Grape/Wisp/KJ?
Ya I can see how you read that aggressive tone as unaligned
WHy doesn't it feel like KJ? I was town reading him earlier but his townie floatiness has diminished a bit and he's been more reactive lately. It has felt more and more like him to me.
@Proph I'll respond to the rest later but if you were confirmed town I'd have to completely reevaluate but my initial guess would be Dota/Eco.
If its Grape/Killjoy, this post is just him town-siding very 0 reason, I am literally moving off his buddy, and he is asking me why, its like he is trying to keep me there
@Wisp - if you're alive in f3, do not snap vote (maybe tell the other two to do so? up to you)
It's gonna be a huge responsibility, I know, but take the time and reread. Though I will say if I die, I do have a strong belief that the team is Grape/Eco.
I would never snap vote in lylo
but if Killjoy is town in that world, the game ending in a town lose, will be all on him
so he needs to read this post, and think about why I am just town here
Current VC is
Eco (1) - Killjoy
Killjoy (1) - Eco
want to see gf's thoughts, and want to see if he still thinks I'm mafia
Wisp is mostly all over the place, but I feel like he's getting there naturally. The out of nowhere pressureswitches are pretty fine, and aren't really in a conformist or "following the scummy town wagon" kinda way. He's kinda bouncing off the walls instead of maliciously targeting people who are low hanging fruit BECAUSE they are low hanging fruit (such as me or DotA).
Grape has a fairly higher than normal volume of buzzwords (see 543/544 for good examples). I also noticed he "Hmmmm"ed at Cantrip in 277, but I don't really see any follow up from that as of yet. There's also something to be said about tone, but that's not as reliable as positioning.
Cantrip hasn't done much as of this point, but it's of note that he started this game (stated at least twice) with a weak townread of me. I recognize that I didn't have much content as of ~250 or so by the time he had stated them. As of tat point, that's what I've got for him.
Continuing reading.
Also of note, the only unknown Grape doesn't mention here is Cantrip.
So there's that.
I'm sorry I didn't put all the posts about Eco/Grape in one post, but they're all pretty much in the last 100 posts or so so they shouldn't be hard to find.
again I really hate giving KJ a pass like this, but I think the game makes the most sense if KJ is town for some inexplicable reason
we will see what grape says though
- if the team is eco/KJ why would they both townread me and then set themselves up to vote each other off? makes a little more sense for GF to keep pushing me, eco to push KJ/grape, but both converge on KJ to end the game
- KJ's posts have been really poor and him stepping it up 24 hours prior to eod also sucks. but it's hard to see his posts come from a actual mafia mindset I feel. again he feels very oblivious and not in tune with the game state
there's something else that I wanted to mention but I forgot
let me hop onto my laptop
but I really do think he fits in most worlds
I don't think Grape/KJ is a thing, because the way Grape voted for KJ at EoD2 did not read like a bus/distancing attempt to me, and KJ soft shaded Grape on Day 1. Very weak interactions, but when we are dealing with two lurkers at the time then that was all I had work with.
If we discount that team then lunching Eco 100% guarantees us a scum flip. We just have to work out who is scum between KJ and Grape in f3. I expect one of us to be killed.
So yeah.
Would love if anyone could double check my work. I feel like I'm gonna throw the game lmao
My shift ends in about 10mins and I'll be home in like a half hour after that
Still waiting to hear from Grape.
I'm really sorry. I just can't play the game right now.
I see Proph is back to thinking it's me. Which lol.
Going with my prior feeling since I'm way out of date. It's probably KJ/Eco but I'm still paranoid about Proph/KJ even though wisp is adamant that team doesn't make any sense.
Vote: KJ
and me voting grape here, would be I am not listening to both DV and Axel who I find to be competent players. I just, idk man, there are so many things that can point to both killjoy being town and being a wolf.
What I'd like to ideally try to do for the next hour is to MAKE SURE GF/KJ ARE NOT ON A TEAM TOGETHER
Because then we can lunch scum Eco and then re-visit this in f3
I think, that with that vote, he had full intention of seeing Killjoy die there
If he is voting you, who is town, why move to a scum buddy, like why even try to get that wagon going
when Dota is ripe for the picking, there is just 0 reason imo
It might actually be.
this post was so stupid lol
I need to reread Grape honestly because I just straight up don't remember things from him.
could be avoiding reading a partner?
Grape has 4 wolf reads in the GTHH in 775, which is unusual for scum to do. Also his progression on his reads feel natural.
He basically gives Grape a TWTBAW read here? at least that's how I interpret it. Can't really say why this is anything but NAI in terms of being a team or not
in the next two posts, Grape pretty much calls killjoy out with questioning and attacking his mindset.
The scum would think in that case that they can survive the Day if we yeet the scummiest of those players. I'm guessing it's probably Eco if DotA is being so heavily pushed for (unless there's some bussing going on)
again he mentions Eco being a "wolfier", the other example was when he shaded Eco, in a very partnery way
its so hard to read any of these though, because he simply did not vote any of his scum reads, ever, but he did vote Dota, over Eco at EoD, which is contradiction to the above statement
Killjoy writes a lot of information over analysis, with nothing to back it up
like a lot
Grape is pushing me over two scummier slots.
lmao... nmeither of which you are voting apparently, just feels like shade here
I'm scummy enough to get a good wagon on me but not so much that there's too much consensus there. So DotA, Wisp, Grape. Looking into them now.
god what are these posts, there isn't consensus, because both the top posters are hedging so hard on you because we are trying to read you. Such a nutty post
Random shading of Grapefruit by asking if the second vote on a hypothetical town player is more significant than not. Again, if KJ/Grape are buddies, I see no reason for KJ to dunk his scumbuddy/draw attention to him like this.
This response from Grape "I pretty strongly disagree with that assessment that the game isn't like that" feels really aggro and I don't think it's a tone you want to adopt with your wolf buddy.
This feels way more like a scum trying to opportunistically drag KJ down to a possible mislunch territory moreso than "why isn't it my scumbuddy"? If GF/KJ were buddies, then there's no reason for Grape to say this. He just lets Wisp talk himself out of his scumbuddy.
And yes, this vote doesn't feel like a bus vote. Why would you push a counterwagon on your buddy when I'm pushing the town counterwagon in DoTA? You would either stick to me or lunch DoTA with me.
Also, if you look at GF's last page in his ISO, he says he wants to vote me but he shifts focus first to ISOing KJ. If it's KJ/Grape then I'm pretty sure you don't want to start off with ISOing your scumbuddy, you would just want to ISO me since Wisp/Eco could potentially be convinced into voting me at SoD3.
And if we both agree on that, then Eco is scum.
We lunch him and then we'll see who the scum kill in f3 (probably me, I will take all the time in the world to analyze) then the game probably goes to Grape/Wisp/KJ?
WHy doesn't it feel like KJ? I was town reading him earlier but his townie floatiness has diminished a bit and he's been more reactive lately. It has felt more and more like him to me.
@Proph I'll respond to the rest later but if you were confirmed town I'd have to completely reevaluate but my initial guess would be Dota/Eco.
If its Grape/Killjoy, this post is just him town-siding very 0 reason, I am literally moving off his buddy, and he is asking me why, its like he is trying to keep me there
@Wisp - if you're alive in f3, do not snap vote (maybe tell the other two to do so? up to you)
It's gonna be a huge responsibility, I know, but take the time and reread. Though I will say if I die, I do have a strong belief that the team is Grape/Eco.
so eco is basically scum in all worlds
the trouble is figuring out who is eco's buddy
but that's a job for next week
but if Killjoy is town in that world, the game ending in a town lose, will be all on him
so he needs to read this post, and think about why I am just town here