@KJ I appreciate you taking your time to get this long post right but if you're town the sooner you drop it the better. Is this still the post where you're trying to town clear Proph?
yeah, because it's the only real strong read I have right now, and removing one of the few players from the PoE would be worth it, right?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
yeah, because it's the only real strong read I have right now, and removing one of the few players from the PoE would be worth it, right?
If you can do it then it would be but ummmm I am let's call it skeptical. Proph being scum is probably my second most confident read this game (behind Wisp being town).
Screw me. I'm so sorry guys that I keep promising (and failing) to deliver content, the beginning of this week has just been an absolute rollercoaster. Deadline is on Saturday, it looks like? I'll try to carve out some time tomorrow to seriously grapple with this game.
Quote from KJ »
@Proph It's not so much RVS, but that post that was optimal distancing time. Adding in Timetwister didn't cost anything, and would have felt completely normal to do. In an Axel-DotA world, having DotA in there, or rather not specifically excluding him, wouldn't have felt weird at all.
Okay. I'm not gonna press on further with this line of questioning because I don't think it will deliver much insight into your alignment.
Quote from KJ »
As to entrance based reads, it was KIND OF a joke question, but kind of serious as well. One game, a long time ago, Wisp said he was really good at reading people based on entrances. (I think that) every game sincs, I've asked that question. This is actually the first game that I've gotten an affirmative answer (which I've kind of been holding that in the back of my head as a possible reason he might be scum, that that answer was false and he made up the reads.) Entrance based reads are being able to make decisions on alignment based on first posts.
OK, this makes sense. Wisp's 330 was the post where he answered you re: entrance based reads (where he said that Axel had a good entrance and I had a poor one).
Quote from KJ »
Per DV: I think you're referring to when I was reading DV's initial aggressiveness as malice, but then I recontextualized it as just DV being emotional? I'm not sure? Can you quote where you're referring to here?
at this point I may start believing DV is being malicious, I honestly don't know though
Either way I'm not voting Proph, regardless of how sound DV's case maybe, and the inconsistencies he may? have found
I'll revisit the possibility of Proph being a wolf again, on day 2
I'm not sure he's being malicious.
Just irrationally emotionally driven maybe.
ya I mean, I just have a vendetta against playstyles like that, it's just, it can make the game unfun in town worlds.
either way it's hilarious that you are making this post, when you think me and DV are partners
like I don't really understand what town!killjoy is doing right now
I actually don't think DV is scum rn.
Quote from Killjoy »
Literally the reason you're a wolf there is because I was doubting Wisp being scum at that point and you being scum with Eco fit my "one high one low" theory I was actively looking at. That's it.
So, you went from townreading me (for asking poor questions and reminding you of yourself), to scumread (because of this one high one low theory you had), to null-town (where you said "I actually don't actively think you are rn. I also don't actively think you're not.
I'm kinda at the point where "Proph has a lot of effort, it's probably townie effort, but I'm not gonna remove him from the PoE without more info."") and now to strong town? Can you walk me through all of this progression?
Quote from Lastwhisper »
And he keeps shading me for being uninformed, it's annoying, he wants me to be a god, while he does absolutely nothing? This game has been crazy hard for 0 reason, if killjoy was actually town here, I should be able to see it in his posts, not with the garbage meta, that tells me, "Killjoy is just being useless old killjoy". Which isn't even technically true, because I looked at his recent town games, and he pushes his thoughts, and does not hold his vote close to his chest. If he believes someone is a wolf, he votes them, he fights with them.
Wisp, can you link me to his recent town games? I've been skimming his "recent" scum games (Token Power 4, Dark and Stormy) and I feel like he has a consistent tone as either alignment.
Honestly I'm gunna sleep on it, but idk how can possibly see that post coming from wolf killjoy
What? I am very lost because KJ hasn't really done anything townie in the last page.
Anyway I haven't thought about the game at all because Giannis!!! My brain will be working again in the morning.
/shrug
AtE is my greatest enemy and that was the most human post Killjoy has written all game
but this game comes down to the fact that, If killjoy is not a wolf, this game is a up hill battle, that I don't think is winnable anyways, unless its exactly Cross/Eco
Screw me. I'm so sorry guys that I keep promising (and failing) to deliver content, the beginning of this week has just been an absolute rollercoaster. Deadline is on Saturday, it looks like? I'll try to carve out some time tomorrow to seriously grapple with this game.
Quote from KJ »
@Proph It's not so much RVS, but that post that was optimal distancing time. Adding in Timetwister didn't cost anything, and would have felt completely normal to do. In an Axel-DotA world, having DotA in there, or rather not specifically excluding him, wouldn't have felt weird at all.
Okay. I'm not gonna press on further with this line of questioning because I don't think it will deliver much insight into your alignment.
Quote from KJ »
As to entrance based reads, it was KIND OF a joke question, but kind of serious as well. One game, a long time ago, Wisp said he was really good at reading people based on entrances. (I think that) every game sincs, I've asked that question. This is actually the first game that I've gotten an affirmative answer (which I've kind of been holding that in the back of my head as a possible reason he might be scum, that that answer was false and he made up the reads.) Entrance based reads are being able to make decisions on alignment based on first posts.
OK, this makes sense. Wisp's 330 was the post where he answered you re: entrance based reads (where he said that Axel had a good entrance and I had a poor one).
Quote from KJ »
Per DV: I think you're referring to when I was reading DV's initial aggressiveness as malice, but then I recontextualized it as just DV being emotional? I'm not sure? Can you quote where you're referring to here?
at this point I may start believing DV is being malicious, I honestly don't know though
Either way I'm not voting Proph, regardless of how sound DV's case maybe, and the inconsistencies he may? have found
I'll revisit the possibility of Proph being a wolf again, on day 2
I'm not sure he's being malicious.
Just irrationally emotionally driven maybe.
ya I mean, I just have a vendetta against playstyles like that, it's just, it can make the game unfun in town worlds.
either way it's hilarious that you are making this post, when you think me and DV are partners
like I don't really understand what town!killjoy is doing right now
I actually don't think DV is scum rn.
Quote from Killjoy »
Literally the reason you're a wolf there is because I was doubting Wisp being scum at that point and you being scum with Eco fit my "one high one low" theory I was actively looking at. That's it.
So, you went from townreading me (for asking poor questions and reminding you of yourself), to scumread (because of this one high one low theory you had), to null-town (where you said "I actually don't actively think you are rn. I also don't actively think you're not.
I'm kinda at the point where "Proph has a lot of effort, it's probably townie effort, but I'm not gonna remove him from the PoE without more info."") and now to strong town? Can you walk me through all of this progression?
Quote from Lastwhisper »
And he keeps shading me for being uninformed, it's annoying, he wants me to be a god, while he does absolutely nothing? This game has been crazy hard for 0 reason, if killjoy was actually town here, I should be able to see it in his posts, not with the garbage meta, that tells me, "Killjoy is just being useless old killjoy". Which isn't even technically true, because I looked at his recent town games, and he pushes his thoughts, and does not hold his vote close to his chest. If he believes someone is a wolf, he votes them, he fights with them.
Wisp, can you link me to his recent town games? I've been skimming his "recent" scum games (Token Power 4, Dark and Stormy) and I feel like he has a consistent tone as either alignment.
mostly, I'm looking for any hint of emotion, which I got. The other meta I'm looking for, was him actively pushing his reads, which he hasn't been doing, which is still boggling me
@Proph:I went from townreading you for reminding me of town!me to concluding you need to be scum (mostly because I wasn't feeling Wisp as much at that point) to an actual behavioral townread on you, yes.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Killjoy doesn't even essentially work with Proph given how he and Proph interacted prior to last EoD. Only Killjoy/Eco truly made sense
Strongly disagree. Can you expand on this? And I'm happy that you're considering Proph again but I just don't grasp how one AtE from KJ (as you put it) is enough to take him out of the PoE. Seems like a natural frustration that could come from either alignment unless I'm looking at the wrong post.
Killjoy doesn't even essentially work with Proph given how he and Proph interacted prior to last EoD. Only Killjoy/Eco truly made sense
Strongly disagree. Can you expand on this? And I'm happy that you're considering Proph again but I just don't grasp how one AtE from KJ (as you put it) is enough to take him out of the PoE. Seems like a natural frustration that could come from either alignment unless I'm looking at the wrong post.
I'm more likely to assume unnatural frustration looking at someone like Proph, than looking at someone like Killjoy
he is so blissfully unaware of anything he does, or why I am reading him the way I do
anyways if the wolf team isn't exactly Proph/Killjoy, the game is just not winnable for town
there is the small chance if its is Proph/Eco, we can just get Eco yeeted
but then in that world, the Lylo team is irrelevant, since Killjoy is not going to think his reads are wrong
and vote either you or me, there is a higher chance he might vote Proph if you are alive, but I don't he does if I am alive
Well the problem with Proph as scum teams is that both Eco and KJ are town reading him a pretty significant way and haven't really engaged with my scum case on him at all. Which is unfortunate...
Well the problem with Proph as scum teams is that both Eco and KJ are town reading him a pretty significant way and haven't really engaged with my scum case on him at all. Which is unfortunate...
Think this post is a little +town for Wisp because he's entering a Micro game where he's not extremely familiar with everyone here. Yes, I know he's played with these players a decent number of times, but out of all of these players I am the person that he has the most experience with playing and chatting with outside the game. So him immediately trying to reach out to me and say "please be town" when I am the person that he is the most familiar with makes sense to me.
He makes a couple of more one-liner RVS posts - posts I did not like from him at the time.
not liking this has nothing to do with either of your alignments :P, not need to vote
I'm waiting for something to happen
currently I'm going to keep an eye on your overall energy levels and/or enthusiasm
when do I ever try to make things happen? i mean maybe sometimes I will try, still too early, I am usually good at ending RVS in mechanical games, but in a vanilla game, ya I got nothing
Looking back on this, this was a very reasonable response to me haranguing him at the time. It's been post 35, the game was still extremely young at the time, and he's fine with just chilling at the moment while waiting for other people to post. I was trying to make him post some content or ask some questions, but he's fine with just staying put at the moment.
man i dont want proph to be a wolf Frown
his luck on this site would be so devastating if that was the case again
I wanna give him a chance
Mentioned this earlier as well, but I think this line and thought process comes much more naturally if you're town Wisp here than if you're scum. You have to really stick it in the weeds if you're scum here I feel to emulate this thought.
DV - might still be a wolf, but I am mind-melding with his thought process, I think he is decent enough at pushing an agenda, but I don't think this is how he approaches it as a wolf. Overall I think he is veeeeery likely to be town
Axel - gets to be below DV for claiming to be town in his post, I like those things, fight me.
Grape - might be pocketing me, but I like his posts overall
Everyone else - don't really care yet?
Proph - I'm not even thinking about his meta, I think its an unfun way to interact with Proph. I do very much dislike his handling of me, and pieces of that wall post, that include calling me out for not placing my vote, when that statement was should not have really led to that conclusion, unless you are trying to push malicious thoughts? He definitely needs to like blow me away today, for me to change this, possibly?
Crossbell - Something, something, about straddling the line of like knowing who we are, but also playing like he doesn't know who we are, kinda rubs me the wrong way. I think Grape explains it a lot better
24 hours in, but I would be baffled if there is not a wolf between proph and fake proph.
Feels like I hate all the people that hate me, guess that's how the cookie crumbles
Pretty fine readslist for early game. I know Axel liked the fact that Wisp townread him for claiming to be town in his first post, and I do as well. His writeup on me also reads as fairly nuanced, which is something I missed when I was tunneling him. Maybe I'm reverse tunnelling him now though :|
im not worried, you two are just being annoying
I don't like being patronized, that's all
but its bound to happen in a game with limited player size though
so its w/e
I also have to keep checking which one you I am responding to, because you decided to be coy with your alt
I thiiiink this annoyance is more likely to come from town Wisp than mafia Wisp? I feel like scum Wisp would have tried to weaponize this annoyance into something more malicious in order to advance his win condition. In here he's just like "you two are being annoying" but there's no real attempt to advance an agenda here - it's just a thought.
my questions are
1. Why is fencesitting wolfy in itself? especially this early
2. Why does reacting to pressure, little or not, mean anything outside of context
anyways im going to sleep
also if you have experience with axelrod, I am curious why you think what he has done so far, isn't like null, to slightly townish
since I work better-off people, and not on my own due to my reactive behavior
I am going to spend time figuring out who you are lol, until more stuff happens
This post he even tries to engage with Osie with some questions to try and figure out his alignment. Again, I feel like mafia Wisp would either react poorly to this pressure or spin it off into something agenda-based, and he's just not really doing that at all here.
@Crossbell
so ya im with Proph on, "its too early for this Axel read", nonsense
did you even check the length between the posts, and the post count in compared to the rest of the game?
honestly I'll be lucky to get axel to respond sometimes
Again I might be confirmation-biasing here, but I do like how he even said "hold up Osie, did you go so far as to check even the length between the posts and compare the posts to the rest of the game". Just a fairly nuanced insight that, again, does not seem to come from a position of bad faith.
I wouldn't say you are cherry-picking, you are just meta reading the wrong things
ohh well
ping me again, when you have a case on someone who might actually flip red
still probably not DV
This post was in response to me casing Wisp about the early game meta stuff, and again I think it's a good one. He doesn't overreact or again, spin this off into something malicious. He just says "ping me again, when you have a case on someone who might actually flip red" which reading back on it now shows a type of confidence that I heavily doubt scum Wisp would possess since I just wolf'd with him and he was complaining "if his scum game was just a little bit better".
i do like that Cross re-evaluated me, but its not at all dangerous yet, especially given we have basically 4 non-existent players at the moment, with you and DV right on the line
its still possible its just Proph here, I am still waiting for him to re-evaluate me
And here he's just expecting me to re-evaluate him. Which I did, but my point stands - his confidence here is extremely unlike his wolf game.
Ignoring Cross' alignment here, Grapefruit scum leans can be hit or miss
but whats important, is deciding if he is pushing it maliciously or not, and I don't see that
neither from how he outlined his thoughts, nor in regards to how I perceive his ability as a wolf to outline scum leans
yes I am low-key shading his wolf game here
anyways, off to bed
I am liking Cross on a macro level, but as I stated before I still have quells with his early game
and I don't really care about his thoughts on you, nor your thoughts on him
Important note here is that Wisp is mostly just floating and trying to get more content out in the thread rather feeling that he needs to do something. Again, I think this is a fine look for him. I think this is important to point out because I think thread consensus was very much against Osie at this time, and he isn't really pushing or advocating anything at this stage.
Of course it's Osie, of course it is.
@Proph we have different definitions of LHF if u think Osie is that.
I would prefer not to be wrong on someone who is actually playing the game, but both Axel and DV have pointed out things not to like. And if this was town!Osie, I think he'd be more frustrated?
Again, re-evaluating Osie based on new information about his identity. Not trying to really push anything or drive the game towards any type of overarching agenda.
I do think that Osie is thinking critically enough, that the small amount of inconsistencies, should maybe be overlooked for at least day 1? but in the case of me, I'd probably just vote you anyways.
I don't really see myself voting in Cantrip/Grape/DV/Axel
which leaves what
you, Dota, KJ
and KJ hasn't done anything really wolfy or townie
Dota had that one forceful vote, but that's about it
and you, well, call it omgus, even though my read does encompass other thoughts, the fact that I got double teamed as town, by two different players, leaves a bad taste in my mouth
Osie re-evaluating me looks better, I don't what the hell your re-evaluation was
Same here. Active evaluation and thought put into everyone alive in the game. It's possible that I'm being really charitable here with my interpretation, but it's something that I think scum Wisp has a tough time pulling off.
do know why u think the first sentence, but dota's vote has agenda vibes, and honestly if you look at Grape's original wall on you, it doesn't really seem to say much from what I recall, that makes you "so" bad, but he just states he is keeping the vote. so yes I can see both of these. My brain just doesn't really expect wolf!Grape to be able to talk like this. I imagine more timidness, but maybe I am misremembering
Out of curiosity, @Wisp, are there any wolf Grape games you are basing your meta knowledge on?
on a more serious note, I really don't think its Osie anymore
but nobody cares what I think
and I'm also to fence-sitty to bother
as well as I can't explain things well anyways
More confirmation bias here tbh, but I really struggle to see Wisp write out the last three sentences here if he's a wolf.
there is nothing relevant about that line
but if truly want me to write out what that statement means
it means, I don't really know, I am torn between the things on a macro level that I've see, the things I hated on a micro level
as well as what others have brought up
and I do not want to spend my time trying to save or push you in the world that I am wrong in either direction.
If you think that statement makes me look weird, then knock yourself out
but this isn't the hill u want to die on while straddling the line of L1
His indecision when responding to KJ in this post feels real - specifically where he says he likes things he has seen on a macro vs things he has hated to see on a micro level. He's also considering what happens if he's /wrong/ which is something that scum have a difficult time placing themselves in the mindset of worrying about. So yeah.
@Killjoy where has DV been hedgy, and why does hedgy make him a wolf? I think his aggressive behavior is mostly nai, pushing tomwards somewhat townie. Like him he is aggressively pushing something maliciously, you can usually see it. But you have all but ignored everything people have been saying on Osie. If anything you took the easiest route by not even bothering, when he has been the top train, since the start of the game. While I have been getting flack for hedging on his alignment.
Active question towards KJ aimed at trying to figure out his alignment.
ya lets pressure this
Vote: Killjoy
@Highroller
im going to take a broader look at Grape at some point today
I will await his answer to my question as well
man its crazy how you haven't said anything that isn't a question, for like 3-4 days, and then you drop that god awful post on me? and your reaction to DV is even more piss poor than DV's reactions to pressure, which honestly it isn't even pressure, he just reacts to posts he believes are stupid. When exactly did DV become a wolf-lean for you? because you worded one post, "DV/Cross probably not aligned", and I am curious if you were already trying to find DV's partner in your world, or if you were just making a general statement. Either way, when did DV become a wolf lean for u? Also idk if you think its townie to just not saying anything about the top wagon, but heads up, its not townie, in the slightest lol. So like I asked before, please come back and give me a read on Osie/GJ, so I can actually evaluate your presence in this game
Pretty natural progression on KJ here. Actively questioning him into a pressure vote into him completely freaking out over KJ's post where KJ wolfreads him and DV.
again, im not trying to persuade people of *****, if anything if people didn't give me a decent reason as to why you should die, I would be heavily against it. if you are town here, you make up nutty reasons as to why people are wolves, which honestly I am not at all surprised, given our many interactions in other games. But you should have a read on Osie, Osie doesn't sit at L1, L2 all game, and you are just like, "he is null", while people are trying to kill him. Also I know activity means nothing for you, but that doesn't mean you get to not do anything, half ass read the game, and half ass your reads, and be like, "Not posting is NAI for me"
Why wouldn't someone kill every wolf read on them?
More continued off-the-cuff responses to KJ. Not only does this make Wisp/KJ unaligned, but I don't think Wisp gets this angry/cares this much about KJ calling Osie null if again, Wisp was actually mafia.
god rereading that post, its even worse knowing Killjoy's thought process, its actually infuriating
can we go back plz
Again, I have trouble seeing this raw anger coming from scum Wisp.
I mean Im still hung up on what wolf!Grape was thinking when he re-evaluated GJ's slot after he found out it was Osie, it just doesn't seem like a wolfy thing to do. I would like him to be more of a voice though, since he managed to destroy wolves in the game I was in with him, where I was a wolf, and here, he is just kinda average?
This feels to me as a real thought he had (him comparing Grape from this game to Tarot).
His EoD was also pretty strong (he voted Grape with me after I dropped my legacy post after voting KJ, while telling people to post/act like he actually cared about the outcome of the lunch. Feel like scum would just not really care if I was town and GJ was town - maybe if Grape is a wolf though)
Day 2.
His larger post (790) is pretty solid.
this point was towards Dota, not you? no idea why u quoted that half of my post. And sure I can understand this community style, which is maybe why I play so differently around real time, which is why I can adapt to emotions and tone so differently, while you all stay strong on your convictions based on your "tells", and "reasonings"
I would have honestly killed either your or Killjoy, but you had that frozen wolf posting style that stuck out to me, and if not for DV thinking you were town, and me for once trying to listen to dead townies, I would be voting for you.
My argument is my own, you weren't active in my opinion, this site, makes a case, votes, and there is no time to work around it. Which is why its so easy for wolves to just make one big wall on why someone is a wolf, and just skate to victory. Anyways that is irrelevant, cause you were pretty damn active in the MU game. So are u just playing different cause ur playing to the longer day phases? or what?
if you don't think I am trying to figure out this game, you are either reading a completely different game, and/or being malicious. I'd take Killjoy hedging on me at this point, to be townier than you hedging on me.
Genuinely inquisitive over why Grapefruit's behavior/activity in this game is different in this one compared to Tarot, once again. I think his last sentence is also pretty townie.
ohh god that did not help me like you at all. jesus
@Wisp - this was in response to Grape linking his scum games. What exactly did you not like about him doing that?
Grape is my next dive, and right now this is mostly on what I remember. I liked his early thoughts, I thought they were really good in how he wrote them, and it didn't really feel like a wolf faking content. and again I also think how he handled Crossbell just doesn't make sense from a wolf, but just like with killjoy, trying to find wolves using the method of, "Why would a wolf do this", is heavily garnished in wine, but a micro read none the less. I also think from a meta perspective, how he played EoD, just doesn't come off as how I expect wolf grape to play? I mean even removing meta, its still kinda hard to keep up that, "I don't care attitude". But it also comes alongside feeling frozen, but to be fair, he came back into the thread to me trying to bury him, so IDK.
in terms of towniness, "towniness is used as loosely as possible for basically lurking for the most part"
Grape > Killjoy
Fan of this paragraph on Grape. Again, it feels like he is actively trying to really evaluate and think about Grape here, hence why he is working off of his memory. I still want to hear sources from him regarding wolf Grape's meta. Like, how is Wisp coming to the conclusion that what wolf Grape did at EoD is not in his wolf meta?
they are the same person... I used them interchangeable to discuss the slot with a disregard of if the post refers to Osie/Cross or GJ. It's actually irrelevant to the point I made, I was even defending u a bit. And if u had time to nitpik that, then you had time to go back at my stuff and answer it, and honestly it's been so long. I can't even remember what I asked you. I thought he meant to ask about Axel, because that was the only read I could think of that he might have thought of since you never switched your read on Osie's slot
He's taking any opportunity here to engage with DoTA even though DoTA was having extreme difficulties posting Yesterday. Sure.
Lmao axel for wolf, get the **** out of here, you give Proph the benefit of the doubt and not me? Doesn't need to be a leader when none of you are playing the game. Proph isn't even that unnatural enough to give those wolf controlling the narrative vibes. And if he is a wolf who is able to do this, is strictly because enough of you have 0 presence in this game.
Suggest I'm a wolf again, I dare you.
Keep saying this again and again, but I don't see this type of bolded confidence EVER coming from Wisp if he's scum here. I literally JUST wolfed with him and he was extremely passive, even in wolfchat. So this type of confidence here makes me feel very comfortable with town Wisp here.
Nah there is no more opportunities, I can't trust you to re-evaluate in lylo if get there if you are town, and still thinking axel is a wolf is just as god damn dangerous. I do not trust you at all anymore. Playing your own game was cute for a while, but now it's dangerous whether malicious or not.
I gave u a chance with your first big set of reads. Making up bs as to why DV could be a wolf, then randomly re-evaluating that. You then reached so far to call me a wolf and not once have you tried to see me as town. You even suggesting that axel can be in the PoEz without even talking about his posts, just blows my mind. I don't think you are reading the game with the intention of solving from a town perspective, if you are even fully reading, or rather skimming to find what can keep people in the PoE. It's literally day 2, of a micro, with only one more mis yeet available. And I feel like y'all aren't even trying to remove people from the PoE. But you have the audacity to keep shading me and Proph? And now Axel?
I'm going to sleep, this is irritating
Good posts wrt his handling of KJ.
But Killjoy does have decent amount of posts that can be interpreted as townie, which is somewhat based on meta and somewhat based on tells and nuance. I'm not removing him from the PoE, but I slept on it, and I think I'm overreacting to idiocracy
And again, highly doubt that Wisp does this sort of sleep re-evaluation here if he's a wolf. His agenda is essentially nonexistent.
His spazzing/continual vote shifts from KJ to Eco and then back again also reads as extremely impulsive.
i mean its kinda irrelevant, and also wifom, but I guess a lot of things can be either, "Do I believe this, or do I not believe this"
and if you are busy enough that it effects your ability to play, then do yourself and us a favor. The lack of emotion was super hard to read from a town perspective.
I really wish you would stop making these kinda of posts, the genuinity of these posts does not exist for me. I know why town you would say it, and I know why would you would say, but man. Your emotions have been the saving grace of your slot at certain points, and I really need to give you a good reread.
Thread direction, allowed us to both be alive today, regardless of our alignments, which given how everyone treated Axel outside Killjoy, I kinda new this was gunna happen, even still, I was really hoping I died coming in to today
Still think this nuance in terms of him reading me is something that I think scum Wisp would have quite the difficult time faking - don't think he would have such visceral hatred for my general gamestate posts if he knew my alignment.
veracity was definitely the wrong word here, think of a big brain synonym for energy
also wolf!Proph can't call me a wolf here, so that's kinda fun lol
Yada yada he doesn't have the balls to say the bolded if he's a wolf, yada yada.
His evaluation of Eco's post in 1164 where he contributes his own thoughts on the solve is also quite good (where he thinks the solve is KJ/Eco).
So yeah, it's possible that I am super conf-biased when it comes to Wisp, but I think he's very very likely town here.
Day 1 Summary:
- Spent a lot of time getting harangued by me and Osie, and pretty much just shrugged off our questioning and our pressure. Think that's a good look for him - he would have likely cracked under the pressure if he was a wolf
- Evaluated Osie in a way that felt real, and unagenda'd. This was at a time where many players in this game were voting Osie and wanted him dead. His progression felt like he was honestly trying to work out Osie's alignment.
- Dunked on KJ for calling Osie null after he was the main focus on Day 1, among various other sins.
- Flip-flopped on GJ/Osie various times before deciding to sheep me on Grape/KJ for Day 1. CFD attempt failed.
Day 2 Summary: - Engages with Grapefruit about his differing playstyle in Tarot compared to this game, and how he acted at EoD.
- Has the reads game (call someone town/wolf) and continues to press people to play it. Eco points out how he did not do that in any of his scum games but has done it in his town ones.
- Switches on voting Eco/KJ before settling on DoTA since I pushed DoTA's lunch so heavily.
- Continues to harangue KJ about his poor posting.
Conclusion:
Think most of you know this already, but I wanted to put in my due diligence and read through the player with the highest post count in the game just to make sure I am being thorough. I think Wisp is pretty much lock town due to the reasons I have mentioned in this post. In addition to being vastly unlike his scum meta, he's been working on genuinely solving this game and getting people to post more content. He's been virtually lacking agenda, and is very impulsive about reacting to other people's posts. If he's scum here, he's played an excellent game and deserves to win (also he will use up his one chance). But I think he's just Town here. I am also not tinfoiling him being alive still because I feel most MTGS scums don't really see Wisp as a threat, I feel (sorry Wisp, nothing personal).
Lock town, never re-evaluate, if he's scum he deserves to win etc. Again, I know I was pretty confirmation biased in this ISO, but I truly think I am correct on this. He has just had a bunch of impulsive, tonally pure posts that I think would be very difficult for him to fake as mafia. If he was mafia then there would be a TON of other easier-to-take opportunities throughout the game as well.
Let's move onto (Grape, Killjoy, Eco). Two scum and one town in this pile. I'll try to get out another post like this tonight.
Grape, KJ, Eco. If I can find ONE townie out of this pile, then we will have solved this game (well, minus the part where I have to convince the other townie and Wisp that I am correct in my worldview)
I need to go back to work rn, but I should be more free tonight.
Actually, have you considered it seriously? This game size is 3/4 of the usual size. From a theory standpoint, is the second vote on a hypothetical town player in RVS actually be more significant than not?
It might actually be.
More than a little shade sent my way. Scum love to make these sort of second degree pushes. KJ is normally the type to question whatever catches his fancy but this one raises my eyebrow. Because he didn't really flag my RVS vote on his own only to suggest that Crossie should maybe suspect me for it.
326, 331, and 333 for what starts off as a probing question but fizzles into a meaty softball of "you're not scummy but why aren't you playing better?" I realize this is heavy confirmation bias from me but it definitely is a point in favor them being buddies.
475 is a readswall and again I mostly think it works for a buddy with Proph world. His town read of Proph is very ethereal compared to his other town read on Axel and his scum reads are in line with what I'd expect for a him/Proph world. The DV read in particular makes sense. Chainsawing a read on his buddy and agreeing with Proph's early read on Wisp. If his reads are that aligned with Proph then I'm surprised that it didn't factor into the town read.
Just got to the body pillow post and I have A no clue why Proph thinks it should have been AI and B no clue why Wisp thought KJ was robotic all game.
523 and 524 is a progression that is ummmmmm forced? If 523 is a a preview after doing the ISO it doesn't really match the tone of 524 and if it was excitement that lead to the ISO then why is the ISO so tepid and KJ not really disappointed at not finding his smoking gun?
The end of day is inscrutable. I want to read into it but it's not worth doing.
First post that feels worth diving into is his ISO on Cantrip. And it's solid. It's reasonably in depth and internally coherent. So far it's the strongest point in favor of town!KJ I've seen.
820 isn't alignment indicative at all but I disagree with it on a theory basis. Funny that he's focusing on town clearing Proph now but probably not AI. Despite my confirmation bias screaming that it is.
Then we have the game flow 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf stuff. Which still just feels agenda based to me. The lack of explanation of why the game didn't feel dominated (lack of consensus) that didn't match up with reality (there has been a ton of consensus this game) just is utterly bizarre. So bizarre it's hard to paint as purely scummy but the use of it to push at Wisp before eventually backing down after heavy pushback is a red flag.
1063 is another red flag on the 1 high/1 low thing because he mentions he's focusing on it because it's the higher win% for mafia. It means it's not really an attempt to solve because as town you are just trying to figure out what you think is happening not trying to guess what the mafia's optimal path is and basing your solve upon that. Really highlights the lack of a solving mindset.
A bit later in the day we see the start of his pivot away from suspecting Proph before this revelation that lead to the forthcoming ISO. It's first noticable when he muses me/Wisp/Dota were scum pushing him. Then he muses that 1085 never comes from scum.
And from there it's just statement of intent to clear Proph and his one bigger post answering questions. I found nothing at all that convinced me he can't be scum. Saw nothing that makes me think he and Proph are unaligned. Saw a decent amount of scummy stuff. I am still pretty convinced it's exactly Proph/KJ.
Killjoy has been robotic all game
are we reading different games???
Did you read the body pillow post? That is entirely unrobotic, quite human, and reasonably funny. Plus you can catch glimpses of frustration at times before then.
Like he gets annoyed at the pushback from Proph about his 1 high/1 low theory and then you as well. He's more sleepwalking than robotic to me. He's been genuinely human throughout but just not active or probing to his own standards. There is none of the KJ following his own lead doggedly and doing his own thing.
Killjoy has been robotic all game
are we reading different games???
Did you read the body pillow post? That is entirely unrobotic, quite human, and reasonably funny. Plus you can catch glimpses of frustration at times before then.
Like he gets annoyed at the pushback from Proph about his 1 high/1 low theory and then you as well. He's more sleepwalking than robotic to me. He's been genuinely human throughout but just not active or probing to his own standards. There is none of the KJ following his own lead doggedly and doing his own thing.
ok ill give you the bodybag post had "something", and by something I mean "words", and probably more emotion than anything else he has done, up until telling me I am attacking him personally
don't agree with his Proph bounce back being "human" though
nor do I believe he has "not been doing his own thing"
its day 3 and Killjoy is still playing like its Day 1
Eco is literally invisible
and I am still telling you that I don't believe this is wolf!killjoy anymore
I want to vote Proph or Eco now
Maybe go read Axel's read of Killjoy?
I didn't mean he hasn't been doing his own thing. I meant that he hasn't been doing it in his dogged, relentless, town meta way. He is letting things slip away but still operating in his own world just in a non persistent way.
Going to go look up Axel's KJ post.
Eco is completely invisible though. Which isn't a good look at all.
Even though I solved it with my last post, I guess I'll still soldier on with these reviews.
Killjoy
I liked one of Killjoy's first posts, where he made an observation that my failure to include Timetwister in my list of Blue cards to vote suggested that I would be less likely scum-alligned with DoTA. Because, if we were buddies, I would probably have been more conscious of leaving my buddy deliberately off a list he might otherwise have been included on. I thought that was a fair observation, and showed some kind of critical thinking/game solving mentality. It was just one sentence though, and certainly not something he couldn't have said as scum.
Another reasonable observation is at #267 where he points out to DoTA that DoTA is questioning whether Osie and I are trying to figure each other out or not (or just posting for the sake of show), and he asks DoTA - if trying to figure each other out is one of the possibilities - why does DoTA also say he doesn't think it's a T/T interaction? What specifically makes him feel that? This is a fair question, which again seems to show a game-solving mentality. But again, I would say it's also not outside scum-range, particularly because as scum Killjoy would know that this was, in fact, a T/T interaction. This post does give me "Killjoy less likely aligned with DoTA" vibes though.
In #324 Killjoy makes another "I think they are less likely aligned" observation regarding DV and Osie for what he regards as a weak attack on Osie by DV (basically Osie gave Proph an early "town" read and DV questioned the genuineness of this read). All this seems fair.
Killjoy seems to suspect Proph a little early on for what he perceives as Proph asking some poor questions. The good here is that Killjoy is directly engaging Proph on the topic, and not just saying it into the void (and voting). It's more probing, like he's trying to solve Proph. So, I think it's still fine.
He then throws out some more comprehensive thoughts at #475.
Thinks I am likely Town because I got some heat/criticism early for doing essentially what I always do, and he thinks that criticism might have been more likely to come from scum. Not sure about this reasoning - a lot came from Osie - but it doesn't feel like it's "insider" info leaking out here.
Proph he seems to have come around on as more likely Town, as a rusty Town Proph who hasn't Towned it up in awhile makes sense to Killjoy for why Proph's questions aren't the greatest. Okay.
No opinion on Cantrip. Just says he's one of the "tricksy" ones who uses a lot of words and needs to keep an eye out. Okay.
No good opinion on Osie yet. Says his posts have been...fine? Also, probably okay, though he probably should have a better opinion on one of the top posters who's been the subject of much discussion thus far.
DoTA - some decent posts but not a lot of content. Fine. This is kind of how I felt also.
Doesn't remember much about Grape and need to re-read him. Maybe fine? Does he ever do this?
Current best guesses for scum are DV (whiff) and Last.
DV because he's both (1) aggressively jumped on Proph, but also (2) been "hedgy in a bad way." Which are somewhat contradictory things. Also, I don't see where he mentioned anything about this before. Before, he seemed to be questioning DV for DV's theory that Osie was showing inside info in declaring Proph Town. That wasn't DV going after Proph at all. Maybe DV did start going after Proph (don't remember and not looking it up) but Killjoy never said anything about that before this, and also doesn't seem to be questioning DV about it now either. Doesn't point out where DV has been hedgy either. So, this looks less solvey and more conclusory.
Last because Killjoy specifically doesn't like Last's progression on him. Claims Last has been saying Killjoy is null to him, but at the same time, claims that Last is arguing repeatedly that others should also not have developed a "Town" read on Killjoy. I read the three post Killjoy linked to make this argument and they are all posts where Last is saying Killjoy is null and he basically has no thoughts. They are not posts where Last is arguing to others that they should not have Town thoughts about Killjoy, so that part of this argument was not supported here. Maybe Last did make those statements, I just don't see them yet and I am not trying to look them up. If Last did, it's a better argument than if Killjoy's entire point is based on a read of only the three posts he quoted.
Something to possibly be said about KJ not jumping the Osie wagon and seeming to be willing to give GJ more time to get into the game.
He then engages a bit with both of his above referenced scum-reads. With DV, he points out a DV post he says he didn't like, along with what he perceives to be a scummy pattern of behavior. With Last, he goes much more into depth. He breaks down why he feels Last's repeated remarks that KJ is "null" looked malicious to him (i.e. an attempt to get other people to agree and degrade their Town-reads on KJ.) This is, in some ways, an answer to my question above, though I'm not sure how much I agree with it. He finally challenges DV's scum read on himself - saying essentially that DV should know better.
I do feel a certain amount of sincerity here. If this is a scum-KJ pleading his case, he's doing a pretty good job.
He puts off an Osie read/opinion though. Which isn't great considering they were still top suspect approaching deadline.
Finally does re-read and gives that opinion in #524. Conclusion is that Osie might be scum. He's seeing a strange progression on Osie's scum-reads (arguing why he thinks one person is scum while voting another, and then seeming to switch to a suspicion of DoTA from out of nowhere, finally flipping on KJ himself after initially saying he thought KJ was Town.) He excuses his earlier failure to read Osie as he just didn't want to because he's traditionally bad at it.
And, eh, I don't see too many red flags with this. I'm probably biased since I was one of the biggest Osie pushers, but what this isn't is simple bandwaggoning. Looks like some independent thought going on here.
He then makes an observation that probably doesn't serve him well if scum, which is that he doesn't think Proph could be scum with anyone BUT Osie at this point, given the way Proph is defending him. Doesn't think scum-Proph would go this hard defending an easy mis-yeet. Given scum KJ knows that this will be a mis-yeet, seems less likely he would want to cut off his ability to argue Proph is still scum later, not when he didn't have to.
And then he revises his opinion on DV towards the end of the day, saying he no longer thinks DV is scum. Not quite sure how this happened.
KJ appears to have made the same mistake I did about the deadline, but he realized it in time and was around for the deadline, indicating a willingness to vote for GJ/Osie or Last. Which is at least consistent. Then settles on GJ, remarking he thought he had more time. This still seems fair to me. The "counter-wagon" that was developing at the last minute was on Grape, and KJ didn't really say anything about that, which isn't great, but with the deadline, it's more understandable. I do note a lack of opinion on Grape for basically the entire day.
At the end of all this, I...actually mostly like Killjoy? I agree with some of his stuff, but even more than that, I like his thought processes, and I don't see anything malicious here. His whole Tone is also very natural and just appears unforced to me. It's not an enormous amount of content, but it's not a lurking scum amount of content.
Verdict: Could be Town!
This was an interesting thing to reread after doing my ISO. We basically highlighted the same posts more or less but had different things as the most indicative. For example he mentioned a couple times that he was curious if KJ followed up on threads (which never happened) and it wasn't a major concern for him but it was for me. I also find the point about scum not wanting to commit to Proph is only scum with GJ convincing since KJ didn't remotely stick to that belief. And that seems to have been one of Axel's stronger points in KJ's favor.
Axel being pinged by the sudden change of mind on DV but not being overly concerned is where I'm most in disagreement with him. To me town!KJ is methodical, follows his own leads, doesn't really care about the flow of the game. Here he's dropping his own reads left and right and is really responsive to outside pressures. It's possible he's trying to play more collaboratively as town but here it strikes me as something he's doing as scum to avoid pressure.
If I'm breaking down DoTA's post on KJ it seems to boil down to "Killjoy changed his reads a lot. And he said a lot of people could still be scum."
Which, I guess? KJ has been a bit all over, moreso on D2 I feel. I am a little sympathetic because I can't get a handle on very much either. But he did an independent iso of Cantrip and concluded "might be a wolf." Then when asked to list his "top two" said "DoTA + Wisp." But quickly added "Eco is down there too."
And more recently "Proph + Eco."
I really don't like this "One High, One Low" poster spec. Because it's like his "scum" read on Proph is entirely derived from it by virtue of now thinking Last might be Town (therefore, the other "high" poster is the scum.) He has got a pool of 4, and all he's doing is mixing and matching combinations of those 4, 1 high and 1 low. Which is bad.
Also for what it's worth Axel here can be seen souring on KJ after his wall. Still thought Dota was a better bet by his voting record but this is not a strong vote of confidence and points to the same 1hi/1low shenanigans that I didn't like.
Going to reread his outburst from last night because you're clearly believing this but I don't see it at all right now.
I mean his high/low mindset is bad, since even though from my perspective, I know it exists, given my now town read of KJ, it just came out of no where, when the other easier world could have just been a bunch of low posters. He spent most of the game ignoring both me and Proph on a macro level, taking w/e micro post he liked, swapping us back and forth
is it bad? yes? is it malicious? maybe? I'm going towards no, and I think there are better things to highlight if you want to bury wolf!Killjoy here
I mean his high/low mindset is bad, since even though from my perspective, I know it exists, given my now town read of KJ, it just came out of no where, when the other easier world could have just been a bunch of low posters. He spent most of the game ignoring both me and Proph on a macro level, taking w/e micro post he liked, swapping us back and forth
is it bad? yes? is it malicious? maybe? I'm going towards no, and I think there are better things to highlight if you want to bury wolf!Killjoy here
I mean I disagree? Pretty strongly, I personally think it's the second most egregious thing in his ISO because it's highlighting his lack of solving. He's working backwards from first principles to hide a lack of solving with it. He's saying the scum must be this and looking for people who fit rather than looking for scum and then trying to make sense of the gamestate around his reads.
For the record the worst thing is the way he drops threads in a very un-KJ like way. If you was you or your brother it wouldn't be a concern but for KJ to drop things with 0 progression is a massive red flag.
Still think Proph is scummier for the record but I'm feeling better about KJ being the buddy with his actions as well the team making sense as buddies.
Still working on the next person on the list (most likely Grape, bc I want to go from top to bottom) but let me interject for a bit.
Grape, you probably won't listen to me, but I'm not scum. I know I've been pretty busy Today, but my scum game is nowhere near as good as this and you're barking up the wrong tree by including me as part of your gamesolve.
I don't defend Osie/GJ to the ends of the earth Day 1 if I'm scum. I take my easy mislunch and get out of there - you've seen this before with ZDS in Snow White Mafia. Maybe I try to avoid accountability somehow, but I don't lay my neck on the line to save GJ if I have a red role PM.
I don't push DoTA this hard if I'm scum. I struggle with massive TMI as a wolf and it would have been difficult for me to push DoTA knowing that he was town. I'm way more comfortable bussing buddies than pushing mislunches as scum because I know their alignment.
I don't post this much as scum. I struggle to maintain energy as the game goes on and I most certainly could not have kept up for Day 2, let alone all of Day 1.
I don't argue with DV late Day 1 if I'm scum. I seriously lost my cool there and I would not have allowed him to push my buttons if I'm scum.
Etc et al. The reason why I'm making this post is because if you're the one town out of the three then you need to stop tunneling. I would have been seriously exasperated, and would not have played how I've played this game if I rolled scum for the millionth time in a row on this site. If you're town here, get out the tunnel and re-evaluate.
I mean I tend to notice this a lot from Killjoy, so it's truly hard to say if there is actually a separation between his alignments and how he plays
Hence, why I adopted the phrase, "its killjoy doing killjoy things"
I arguably hate that he has only ever voted at EoD and never has put his money where his mouth is, that is just so wolfy to me
Voting Proph is going to be a pain, in town!killjoy worlds, I need his case sooner than later, so I can break it down
in wolf!killjoy worlds, its irrelevant since I trust that town!Eco doesn't vote my towncore which is you, with his town read of me (referring to w/e lylo turns out be)
did you really push him though? like Dota literally buried himself, and you were just beating down the lower posters, which would be easy for you to do, and correct from either alignment I think?
I know full well how much you struggle with TMI, but I know you aren't incapable of pushing bad town
If you are truly town here, my most comfortable option would be Eco, the literal invisible player
I don't defend Osie/GJ to the ends of the earth Day 1 if I'm scum. I take my easy mislunch and get out of there - you've seen this before with ZDS in Snow White Mafia. Maybe I try to avoid accountability somehow, but I don't lay my neck on the line to save GJ if I have a red role PM.
I don't push DoTA this hard if I'm scum. I struggle with massive TMI as a wolf and it would have been difficult for me to push DoTA knowing that he was town. I'm way more comfortable bussing buddies than pushing mislunches as scum because I know their alignment.
So as scum you don't hard push town or hard defend them. Got it
But seriously I am making to effort to not be completely tunneled and doing the legwork. I've been doing it slowly myself but my KJ dive only deepened my convictions. Going to do Eco/Cantrip next. Was hoping to get more out of him toDay first but that ship has sailed.
did you really push him though? like Dota literally buried himself, and you were just beating down the lower posters, which would be easy for you to do, and correct from either alignment I think?
This is true, but look back at EoD2 where I delivered my ultimatum to lunch DoTA. I was determined as hell to push that lunch through because I thought he would flip red. I don't think I make that same post with that same amount of conviction if I'm a wolf.
I'll try to finish my ISOs tomorrow so we can talk about it. The point I'm trying to make is that while my scum game is solid, it's not like god tier or anything, and I think that a decent amount of my play this game I would quantify as out of my wolf range.
Pretty bloody harsh to be called invisible for having a real life. I'm not going into details, but I've been dealing with some things more important than a mafia game.
That being said, I have managed to review Proph.
On D1, I have real trouble seeing the Mafia agenda behind his play - he scum read LW, but then totally flipped to a town read. As mafia he could have easily left it as a "still scummy" read and moved elsewhere, but he's stuck to town LW relgiously even though it hasn't really encouraged LW to town read him back. He even helped me get to town LW where as scum he could have used my reservations as an excuse to doubt his own town read.
He voted DV but changed his mind, and could safely have voted DV while arguing with him over Osie. #660 maintains a negative (but not scum) read of DV, but has the self-awareness to recognise it's more because of emotional reasons rather than genuine scum tells. This is another case where scum-Proph could easily have parked a vote and a hard scum read, but it looks like Proph has been more interested in solving than in taking easy avenues. That DV got NK'd also ruled out Proph being able to push DV on D2, which would have been a very viable scum plan.
The defence of Osie is another big plus - while defending a town read is not a new scum play, Proph really went above and beyond despite catching flak. Not so much in the "town case" in #499, but the argument with DV had genuine passion, and I just can't see scum bothering to compile #623. Proph also genuninely pushed alternative wagons and wasn't a million miles away from saving GJ at the death (the replacement was also an option for Proph to lose strength in his Osie town read had he wanted). Speaking of those alternative wagons, Proph called the team KJ and Grape in #501 and voted both of them before EoD, which is looking impressively prescient and a strong mark against him being buddies with either.
D2, and scum-Proph again could have pushed the KJ/FD team that he settled on in his #616 "legacy" reads, but instead tried to push DoTArchon then Cantrip (briefly) for content. This is another case where Proph could have simply rested on the work already done, put down a safe vote, and coast. I'm not wild about Proph's deferral to Axelrod over KJ and his settling on DoTA/EcoTrip team as that was definitely the lowest hanging fruit (#883), especially since despite a fair amount of interaction Proph didn't really try to read me, just relied on Cantrip's very few posts and PoE. However, I find it quite difficult to scumread Proph for this because I thought DoTA was scum as well (oops), and Proph is at least showing flexibility in his reads rather than rigidly sticking to his D1 convictions.
D3 - Not a fan of Proph's lamenting over DoTA at the start of the Day. DoTA had a lot of scum points against him, and never really made an effort to appear town or save himself, so it's a bit over the top for Proph to "blame himself" for it - certaintly the doubts listed in #1110 should really have been brought up before the fact. That being said, Proph has still been fairly spiky and engaged toDay - I'll believe the behind-the-scenes work on ISOs when I see it but the LW summary is a good start (and another opportunity to express doubt passed up). I do like that he came into the Day having to reevaluate his world after the DoTA flip - it would have been easy for scum-Proph to either keep pusing EcoTrip by PoE or just pick whichever of KJ/GF isn't his buddy and bury them. A lot does come down to his final set of reads, how good the analysis is, and how well they line with his progressions.
Overall, D1 looks really good for Proph. I just can't see why he would make so many big calls or not seek safe/conservatives plays as scum when both are really against his natural desire when playing as Mafia. However, when I started this I basically wrote Proph off as obv town and was prepared to just go through the motions, but actually late D2 and the start of D3 has given me pause. D2 in particular was a lot lower energy, barning Axel, and voting for the softest team. I think I can see this from a town perspective of someone with a confident PoE (which #660 was) relaxing because no-one listened to them over Osie/GJ, and at least the start of D2 was good, but the main thing I'd be looking for in scum Proph is the energy levels dropoing off after the D1 he had. I don't think they have dropped as far as they could have, even in to D3 assuming these ISOs do come out and he has been engaged even if there hasn't been reams of content.
So yeah, I ultimately think Proph probably is town because I really struggle to see D1 coming from scum, and the bits I don't like are not impossible to have come from town with a confident PoE and irritation at having been ignored D1. Not as confident as I want to be after the D1, but enough that I think if scum-Proph really was pulling out all the stops and going against his natural scum game for the last MTGS game then he wouldn't be slowing down and trying to reevalute: he'd be trying to control the game and just hard push his PoE for the win.
harsh, maybe? Im definitely not the best at talking about my dissatisfaction without projecting my idea of how the game should be played
In terms of Proph, there are too many, "I believe this is what he would", going on
but I guess that's mafia for you, you decide what you think is happening
ultimately though, I think most of what you said is irrelevant, at least irrelevant in the sense that it doesn't help me see town!Proph here
cause I look at him differently
though the frustration towards DV and trying to get low posters killed before top posters, looks good?
but like it was incorrect, so meh
on a micro level a lot of the stuff he does just feels like an attempt to look uninformed, and ignoring those posts are bad, because a lot of that style is the crux of Proph's scum play
but if you want me to think you are a wolf, you are doing a good job in the sense of removing Proph, since in that world, its you/Killjoy
and I vote you first. Anyways, I think this game all about pocketing Killjoy right now, since he is town in my eyes, and probably will win or lose this game today.
You talking about Proph is good in that sense, but Proph talking about me is weird in that sense
meh
Now looking at Grape's case on Proph, because at this stage he's either the town's last hope or scum pushing an unlikely execute. I couldn't find a single case post, so this is using #543, #768, #996, and #1143. The basic points seem to be:
Proph's read on Osie is too strong for/doesn't mesh with the presented evidence
An "undercurrent of agenda" around his focus. Working towards tactically useful ends (like DoTA and GF, as well as revealing Crossbell's identity and DV) rather than following genuine reads.
D2 Hyperfocus on DoTA beyond presented evidence and with no serious reevaluation - especially compared to KJ. Compounded by over the top reaction to DoTA's town flip.
On (1) I don't really agree. Obviously I can only read #499 with hindsight, but it seems like the read was Proph saying things Osie did weren't as scummy as they appeared - and that's pretty fine for D1. Especially since Proph got a headstart by correctly guessing Crossbell was Osie, and actually trying to out Crossbell's identity to support the town read with meta is a good look for Proph. If Proph had been mafia defending town-Osie, I would have expected Proph to come in D2 and start hunting via the wagon, but he didn't: suggesting it wasn't a tactical play.
I also don't think I fully agree with (2) - I: think Proph has mostly been pretty good at putting his reads out there and voting them as opposed to looking for wagons. I certainly find it hard to think of a scum agenda behind the Osie reveal and DV read. Where I do agree with Grape (and this bleeds into (3)) is the focus on DoTA specifically and the reaction to DoTA's flip - and the comparison between KJ and DoTA is actually very interesting (but could be explainable by Proph just choosing to sheep Axel over his own judgement on KJ).
So the case on Proph is not without merit, but I'm coming away with "is that it?". Yeah, Proph got sloppy over DoTA and I came to similar misgivings above. But Proph also has a very large body of work that Grape is overlooking malciously. All the D1 has been handwaved as "agenday" (and Grape never responded when I asked for clarification on D2) with focus put on individual events that look bad instead of within the wider context of Proph's ISO and the game. It doesn't help that if Proph is town, then GF has to be scum who has just been pushing this fringe case all game instead of having to engage with active wagons. Let's not forget that after Grape voted Osie and he flipped town, Grape's world view basically didn't change: he kept pushing Proph.
GRAPE VOTED OSIE AS SELF-PRESERVATION
and what exactly did that flip have to do with his read of Proph?
Oh you're right, Grape scum-read Crossbell then bailed on that read when Osie revealed himself. Then it became a town read when GJ replaced in for ??. It would matter because if you vote someone who you think is scum and they flip town, you should at least try and reevaluate the person who read them as town rather than just plough on. But since the vote on GJ was self-pres then I guess that doesn't count against Grape so much.
Also if you think my case on Proph is irrelevent then ok? It wasn't for you, it was to write out my thought processes for everyone. If you think there are posts Proph has made that are more important that I have overlooked then feel free to tell me so we can actually talk about it.
idk anymore, we are too all over the place for this game to ever end in a town win, I think
try to talk to me about Killjoy when u get a chance, since from your PoV the team is exactly Killjoy/Grape
and they are possibly the only team that doesn't have much of anything removing the possibility of its existence, I sound Grape voting Killjoy near EoD yesterday
you and Grape also don't really have much removing the possibility of the team
I can't really see myself re-evaluating Grape honestly
but as it stands, this is where we are
Killjoy thinks Proph is town
I think Grape/Killjoy are town
Grape thinks the wolf team is exactly Proph/Killjoy
You think Grape is bad, and that me and proph are town
Also if you think my case on Proph is irrelevent then ok? It wasn't for you, it was to write out my thought processes for everyone. If you think there are posts Proph has made that are more important that I have overlooked then feel free to tell me so we can actually talk about it.
I think me and you like and hate different things from Proph/Grape
you argue that Osie flipping town, means that Grape should have re-evaluated his read on Proph, because Osie liked them
where exactly has anyone listened to a dead players reads this game?
I am also trying to understand the wolf motivation for Grape to switch his read on Osie after it was revealed he was Osie.
idk anymore, we are too all over the place for this game to ever end in a town win, I think
try to talk to me about Killjoy when u get a chance, since from your PoV the team is exactly Killjoy/Grape
and they are possibly the only team that doesn't have much of anything removing the possibility of its existence, I sound Grape voting Killjoy near EoD yesterday
I don't think KJ was realistically going to happen at that point, so I guess it was just a little distancing to make F5 easier. But you're right it was a bit weird, I'll try and go through all their interactions and see if there's anything else.
You are pretty much right that it basically just comes down to who KJ and Proph think the team are though.
I think me and you like and hate different things from Proph/Grape
you argue that Osie flipping town, means that Grape should have re-evaluated his read on Proph, because Osie liked them
where exactly has anyone listened to a dead players reads this game?
I meant because Proph town read Osie and was right. Since Grape was wolf-reading Proph and ended up agreeing with him that GJ was town-looking, I think town-Grape would have been more interested in reevaluating Proph than he was.
Quote from LW »
I am also trying to understand the wolf motivation for Grape to switch his read on Osie after it was revealed he was Osie.
Because other players did as well for the same reason, and Grape didn't want to be left holding the bag on the wagon. Note that in #474 when Grape unvoted he said "Definitely going to need to reevaluate and see how much of my case still makes sense with that meta." but never actually did.
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Deadline is 10:30 PM, EST, on July 24.
If you can do it then it would be but ummmm I am let's call it skeptical. Proph being scum is probably my second most confident read this game (behind Wisp being town).
Okay. I'm not gonna press on further with this line of questioning because I don't think it will deliver much insight into your alignment.
OK, this makes sense. Wisp's 330 was the post where he answered you re: entrance based reads (where he said that Axel had a good entrance and I had a poor one).
This is what you said at EoD, unprompted:
So, you went from townreading me (for asking poor questions and reminding you of yourself), to scumread (because of this one high one low theory you had), to null-town (where you said "I actually don't actively think you are rn. I also don't actively think you're not.
I'm kinda at the point where "Proph has a lot of effort, it's probably townie effort, but I'm not gonna remove him from the PoE without more info."") and now to strong town? Can you walk me through all of this progression?
Wisp, can you link me to his recent town games? I've been skimming his "recent" scum games (Token Power 4, Dark and Stormy) and I feel like he has a consistent tone as either alignment.
What? I am very lost because KJ hasn't really done anything townie in the last page.
Anyway I haven't thought about the game at all because Giannis!!! My brain will be working again in the morning.
AtE is my greatest enemy and that was the most human post Killjoy has written all game
but this game comes down to the fact that, If killjoy is not a wolf, this game is a up hill battle, that I don't think is winnable anyways, unless its exactly Cross/Eco
so Idk anymore
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Strongly disagree. Can you expand on this? And I'm happy that you're considering Proph again but I just don't grasp how one AtE from KJ (as you put it) is enough to take him out of the PoE. Seems like a natural frustration that could come from either alignment unless I'm looking at the wrong post.
he is so blissfully unaware of anything he does, or why I am reading him the way I do
anyways if the wolf team isn't exactly Proph/Killjoy, the game is just not winnable for town
there is the small chance if its is Proph/Eco, we can just get Eco yeeted
but then in that world, the Lylo team is irrelevant, since Killjoy is not going to think his reads are wrong
and vote either you or me, there is a higher chance he might vote Proph if you are alive, but I don't he does if I am alive
Lastwhisper
So, this is his very first post of the game:
Think this post is a little +town for Wisp because he's entering a Micro game where he's not extremely familiar with everyone here. Yes, I know he's played with these players a decent number of times, but out of all of these players I am the person that he has the most experience with playing and chatting with outside the game. So him immediately trying to reach out to me and say "please be town" when I am the person that he is the most familiar with makes sense to me.
He makes a couple of more one-liner RVS posts - posts I did not like from him at the time.
Looking back on this, this was a very reasonable response to me haranguing him at the time. It's been post 35, the game was still extremely young at the time, and he's fine with just chilling at the moment while waiting for other people to post. I was trying to make him post some content or ask some questions, but he's fine with just staying put at the moment.
Mentioned this earlier as well, but I think this line and thought process comes much more naturally if you're town Wisp here than if you're scum. You have to really stick it in the weeds if you're scum here I feel to emulate this thought.
Pretty fine readslist for early game. I know Axel liked the fact that Wisp townread him for claiming to be town in his first post, and I do as well. His writeup on me also reads as fairly nuanced, which is something I missed when I was tunneling him. Maybe I'm reverse tunnelling him now though :|
I thiiiink this annoyance is more likely to come from town Wisp than mafia Wisp? I feel like scum Wisp would have tried to weaponize this annoyance into something more malicious in order to advance his win condition. In here he's just like "you two are being annoying" but there's no real attempt to advance an agenda here - it's just a thought.
This post he even tries to engage with Osie with some questions to try and figure out his alignment. Again, I feel like mafia Wisp would either react poorly to this pressure or spin it off into something agenda-based, and he's just not really doing that at all here.
Again I might be confirmation-biasing here, but I do like how he even said "hold up Osie, did you go so far as to check even the length between the posts and compare the posts to the rest of the game". Just a fairly nuanced insight that, again, does not seem to come from a position of bad faith.
This post was in response to me casing Wisp about the early game meta stuff, and again I think it's a good one. He doesn't overreact or again, spin this off into something malicious. He just says "ping me again, when you have a case on someone who might actually flip red" which reading back on it now shows a type of confidence that I heavily doubt scum Wisp would possess since I just wolf'd with him and he was complaining "if his scum game was just a little bit better".
And here he's just expecting me to re-evaluate him. Which I did, but my point stands - his confidence here is extremely unlike his wolf game.
Important note here is that Wisp is mostly just floating and trying to get more content out in the thread rather feeling that he needs to do something. Again, I think this is a fine look for him. I think this is important to point out because I think thread consensus was very much against Osie at this time, and he isn't really pushing or advocating anything at this stage.
Again, re-evaluating Osie based on new information about his identity. Not trying to really push anything or drive the game towards any type of overarching agenda.
Same here. Active evaluation and thought put into everyone alive in the game. It's possible that I'm being really charitable here with my interpretation, but it's something that I think scum Wisp has a tough time pulling off.
Out of curiosity, @Wisp, are there any wolf Grape games you are basing your meta knowledge on?
More confirmation bias here tbh, but I really struggle to see Wisp write out the last three sentences here if he's a wolf.
His indecision when responding to KJ in this post feels real - specifically where he says he likes things he has seen on a macro vs things he has hated to see on a micro level. He's also considering what happens if he's /wrong/ which is something that scum have a difficult time placing themselves in the mindset of worrying about. So yeah.
Active question towards KJ aimed at trying to figure out his alignment.
Pretty natural progression on KJ here. Actively questioning him into a pressure vote into him completely freaking out over KJ's post where KJ wolfreads him and DV.
More continued off-the-cuff responses to KJ. Not only does this make Wisp/KJ unaligned, but I don't think Wisp gets this angry/cares this much about KJ calling Osie null if again, Wisp was actually mafia.
Again, I have trouble seeing this raw anger coming from scum Wisp.
This feels to me as a real thought he had (him comparing Grape from this game to Tarot).
His EoD was also pretty strong (he voted Grape with me after I dropped my legacy post after voting KJ, while telling people to post/act like he actually cared about the outcome of the lunch. Feel like scum would just not really care if I was town and GJ was town - maybe if Grape is a wolf though)
Day 2.
His larger post (790) is pretty solid.
Genuinely inquisitive over why Grapefruit's behavior/activity in this game is different in this one compared to Tarot, once again. I think his last sentence is also pretty townie.
@Wisp - this was in response to Grape linking his scum games. What exactly did you not like about him doing that?
Fan of this paragraph on Grape. Again, it feels like he is actively trying to really evaluate and think about Grape here, hence why he is working off of his memory. I still want to hear sources from him regarding wolf Grape's meta. Like, how is Wisp coming to the conclusion that what wolf Grape did at EoD is not in his wolf meta?
He's taking any opportunity here to engage with DoTA even though DoTA was having extreme difficulties posting Yesterday. Sure.
Keep saying this again and again, but I don't see this type of bolded confidence EVER coming from Wisp if he's scum here. I literally JUST wolfed with him and he was extremely passive, even in wolfchat. So this type of confidence here makes me feel very comfortable with town Wisp here.
Good posts wrt his handling of KJ.
And again, highly doubt that Wisp does this sort of sleep re-evaluation here if he's a wolf. His agenda is essentially nonexistent.
His spazzing/continual vote shifts from KJ to Eco and then back again also reads as extremely impulsive.
Still think this nuance in terms of him reading me is something that I think scum Wisp would have quite the difficult time faking - don't think he would have such visceral hatred for my general gamestate posts if he knew my alignment.
Yada yada he doesn't have the balls to say the bolded if he's a wolf, yada yada.
His evaluation of Eco's post in 1164 where he contributes his own thoughts on the solve is also quite good (where he thinks the solve is KJ/Eco).
So yeah, it's possible that I am super conf-biased when it comes to Wisp, but I think he's very very likely town here.
Day 1 Summary:
- Spent a lot of time getting harangued by me and Osie, and pretty much just shrugged off our questioning and our pressure. Think that's a good look for him - he would have likely cracked under the pressure if he was a wolf
- Evaluated Osie in a way that felt real, and unagenda'd. This was at a time where many players in this game were voting Osie and wanted him dead. His progression felt like he was honestly trying to work out Osie's alignment.
- Dunked on KJ for calling Osie null after he was the main focus on Day 1, among various other sins.
- Flip-flopped on GJ/Osie various times before deciding to sheep me on Grape/KJ for Day 1. CFD attempt failed.
Day 2 Summary:
- Engages with Grapefruit about his differing playstyle in Tarot compared to this game, and how he acted at EoD.
- Has the reads game (call someone town/wolf) and continues to press people to play it. Eco points out how he did not do that in any of his scum games but has done it in his town ones.
- Switches on voting Eco/KJ before settling on DoTA since I pushed DoTA's lunch so heavily.
- Continues to harangue KJ about his poor posting.
Conclusion:
Think most of you know this already, but I wanted to put in my due diligence and read through the player with the highest post count in the game just to make sure I am being thorough. I think Wisp is pretty much lock town due to the reasons I have mentioned in this post. In addition to being vastly unlike his scum meta, he's been working on genuinely solving this game and getting people to post more content. He's been virtually lacking agenda, and is very impulsive about reacting to other people's posts. If he's scum here, he's played an excellent game and deserves to win (also he will use up his one chance). But I think he's just Town here. I am also not tinfoiling him being alive still because I feel most MTGS scums don't really see Wisp as a threat, I feel (sorry Wisp, nothing personal).
Lock town, never re-evaluate, if he's scum he deserves to win etc. Again, I know I was pretty confirmation biased in this ISO, but I truly think I am correct on this. He has just had a bunch of impulsive, tonally pure posts that I think would be very difficult for him to fake as mafia. If he was mafia then there would be a TON of other easier-to-take opportunities throughout the game as well.
Let's move onto (Grape, Killjoy, Eco). Two scum and one town in this pile. I'll try to get out another post like this tonight.
He said something to that effect and hasn't followed up on it at all. So I'm not holding my breath.
Grape, KJ, Eco. If I can find ONE townie out of this pile, then we will have solved this game (well, minus the part where I have to convince the other townie and Wisp that I am correct in my worldview)
I need to go back to work rn, but I should be more free tonight.
More than a little shade sent my way. Scum love to make these sort of second degree pushes. KJ is normally the type to question whatever catches his fancy but this one raises my eyebrow. Because he didn't really flag my RVS vote on his own only to suggest that Crossie should maybe suspect me for it.
326, 331, and 333 for what starts off as a probing question but fizzles into a meaty softball of "you're not scummy but why aren't you playing better?" I realize this is heavy confirmation bias from me but it definitely is a point in favor them being buddies.
475 is a readswall and again I mostly think it works for a buddy with Proph world. His town read of Proph is very ethereal compared to his other town read on Axel and his scum reads are in line with what I'd expect for a him/Proph world. The DV read in particular makes sense. Chainsawing a read on his buddy and agreeing with Proph's early read on Wisp. If his reads are that aligned with Proph then I'm surprised that it didn't factor into the town read.
Just got to the body pillow post and I have A no clue why Proph thinks it should have been AI and B no clue why Wisp thought KJ was robotic all game.
523 and 524 is a progression that is ummmmmm forced? If 523 is a a preview after doing the ISO it doesn't really match the tone of 524 and if it was excitement that lead to the ISO then why is the ISO so tepid and KJ not really disappointed at not finding his smoking gun?
The end of day is inscrutable. I want to read into it but it's not worth doing.
are we reading different games???
First post that feels worth diving into is his ISO on Cantrip. And it's solid. It's reasonably in depth and internally coherent. So far it's the strongest point in favor of town!KJ I've seen.
820 isn't alignment indicative at all but I disagree with it on a theory basis. Funny that he's focusing on town clearing Proph now but probably not AI. Despite my confirmation bias screaming that it is.
Then we have the game flow 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf stuff. Which still just feels agenda based to me. The lack of explanation of why the game didn't feel dominated (lack of consensus) that didn't match up with reality (there has been a ton of consensus this game) just is utterly bizarre. So bizarre it's hard to paint as purely scummy but the use of it to push at Wisp before eventually backing down after heavy pushback is a red flag.
1063 is another red flag on the 1 high/1 low thing because he mentions he's focusing on it because it's the higher win% for mafia. It means it's not really an attempt to solve because as town you are just trying to figure out what you think is happening not trying to guess what the mafia's optimal path is and basing your solve upon that. Really highlights the lack of a solving mindset.
A bit later in the day we see the start of his pivot away from suspecting Proph before this revelation that lead to the forthcoming ISO. It's first noticable when he muses me/Wisp/Dota were scum pushing him. Then he muses that 1085 never comes from scum.
And from there it's just statement of intent to clear Proph and his one bigger post answering questions. I found nothing at all that convinced me he can't be scum. Saw nothing that makes me think he and Proph are unaligned. Saw a decent amount of scummy stuff. I am still pretty convinced it's exactly Proph/KJ.
Did you read the body pillow post? That is entirely unrobotic, quite human, and reasonably funny. Plus you can catch glimpses of frustration at times before then.
Like he gets annoyed at the pushback from Proph about his 1 high/1 low theory and then you as well. He's more sleepwalking than robotic to me. He's been genuinely human throughout but just not active or probing to his own standards. There is none of the KJ following his own lead doggedly and doing his own thing.
don't agree with his Proph bounce back being "human" though
nor do I believe he has "not been doing his own thing"
its day 3 and Killjoy is still playing like its Day 1
Eco is literally invisible
and I am still telling you that I don't believe this is wolf!killjoy anymore
I want to vote Proph or Eco now
Maybe go read Axel's read of Killjoy?
Going to go look up Axel's KJ post.
Eco is completely invisible though. Which isn't a good look at all.
This was an interesting thing to reread after doing my ISO. We basically highlighted the same posts more or less but had different things as the most indicative. For example he mentioned a couple times that he was curious if KJ followed up on threads (which never happened) and it wasn't a major concern for him but it was for me. I also find the point about scum not wanting to commit to Proph is only scum with GJ convincing since KJ didn't remotely stick to that belief. And that seems to have been one of Axel's stronger points in KJ's favor.
Axel being pinged by the sudden change of mind on DV but not being overly concerned is where I'm most in disagreement with him. To me town!KJ is methodical, follows his own leads, doesn't really care about the flow of the game. Here he's dropping his own reads left and right and is really responsive to outside pressures. It's possible he's trying to play more collaboratively as town but here it strikes me as something he's doing as scum to avoid pressure.
Also for what it's worth Axel here can be seen souring on KJ after his wall. Still thought Dota was a better bet by his voting record but this is not a strong vote of confidence and points to the same 1hi/1low shenanigans that I didn't like.
Going to reread his outburst from last night because you're clearly believing this but I don't see it at all right now.
is it bad? yes? is it malicious? maybe? I'm going towards no, and I think there are better things to highlight if you want to bury wolf!Killjoy here
I mean I disagree? Pretty strongly, I personally think it's the second most egregious thing in his ISO because it's highlighting his lack of solving. He's working backwards from first principles to hide a lack of solving with it. He's saying the scum must be this and looking for people who fit rather than looking for scum and then trying to make sense of the gamestate around his reads.
For the record the worst thing is the way he drops threads in a very un-KJ like way. If you was you or your brother it wouldn't be a concern but for KJ to drop things with 0 progression is a massive red flag.
Still think Proph is scummier for the record but I'm feeling better about KJ being the buddy with his actions as well the team making sense as buddies.
Grape, you probably won't listen to me, but I'm not scum. I know I've been pretty busy Today, but my scum game is nowhere near as good as this and you're barking up the wrong tree by including me as part of your gamesolve.
I don't defend Osie/GJ to the ends of the earth Day 1 if I'm scum. I take my easy mislunch and get out of there - you've seen this before with ZDS in Snow White Mafia. Maybe I try to avoid accountability somehow, but I don't lay my neck on the line to save GJ if I have a red role PM.
I don't push DoTA this hard if I'm scum. I struggle with massive TMI as a wolf and it would have been difficult for me to push DoTA knowing that he was town. I'm way more comfortable bussing buddies than pushing mislunches as scum because I know their alignment.
I don't post this much as scum. I struggle to maintain energy as the game goes on and I most certainly could not have kept up for Day 2, let alone all of Day 1.
I don't argue with DV late Day 1 if I'm scum. I seriously lost my cool there and I would not have allowed him to push my buttons if I'm scum.
Etc et al. The reason why I'm making this post is because if you're the one town out of the three then you need to stop tunneling. I would have been seriously exasperated, and would not have played how I've played this game if I rolled scum for the millionth time in a row on this site. If you're town here, get out the tunnel and re-evaluate.
Hence, why I adopted the phrase, "its killjoy doing killjoy things"
I arguably hate that he has only ever voted at EoD and never has put his money where his mouth is, that is just so wolfy to me
Voting Proph is going to be a pain, in town!killjoy worlds, I need his case sooner than later, so I can break it down
in wolf!killjoy worlds, its irrelevant since I trust that town!Eco doesn't vote my towncore which is you, with his town read of me (referring to w/e lylo turns out be)
I know full well how much you struggle with TMI, but I know you aren't incapable of pushing bad town
If you are truly town here, my most comfortable option would be Eco, the literal invisible player
So as scum you don't hard push town or hard defend them. Got it
But seriously I am making to effort to not be completely tunneled and doing the legwork. I've been doing it slowly myself but my KJ dive only deepened my convictions. Going to do Eco/Cantrip next. Was hoping to get more out of him toDay first but that ship has sailed.
This is true, but look back at EoD2 where I delivered my ultimatum to lunch DoTA. I was determined as hell to push that lunch through because I thought he would flip red. I don't think I make that same post with that same amount of conviction if I'm a wolf.
I'll try to finish my ISOs tomorrow so we can talk about it. The point I'm trying to make is that while my scum game is solid, it's not like god tier or anything, and I think that a decent amount of my play this game I would quantify as out of my wolf range.
That being said, I have managed to review Proph.
On D1, I have real trouble seeing the Mafia agenda behind his play - he scum read LW, but then totally flipped to a town read. As mafia he could have easily left it as a "still scummy" read and moved elsewhere, but he's stuck to town LW relgiously even though it hasn't really encouraged LW to town read him back. He even helped me get to town LW where as scum he could have used my reservations as an excuse to doubt his own town read.
He voted DV but changed his mind, and could safely have voted DV while arguing with him over Osie. #660 maintains a negative (but not scum) read of DV, but has the self-awareness to recognise it's more because of emotional reasons rather than genuine scum tells. This is another case where scum-Proph could easily have parked a vote and a hard scum read, but it looks like Proph has been more interested in solving than in taking easy avenues. That DV got NK'd also ruled out Proph being able to push DV on D2, which would have been a very viable scum plan.
The defence of Osie is another big plus - while defending a town read is not a new scum play, Proph really went above and beyond despite catching flak. Not so much in the "town case" in #499, but the argument with DV had genuine passion, and I just can't see scum bothering to compile #623. Proph also genuninely pushed alternative wagons and wasn't a million miles away from saving GJ at the death (the replacement was also an option for Proph to lose strength in his Osie town read had he wanted). Speaking of those alternative wagons, Proph called the team KJ and Grape in #501 and voted both of them before EoD, which is looking impressively prescient and a strong mark against him being buddies with either.
D2, and scum-Proph again could have pushed the KJ/FD team that he settled on in his #616 "legacy" reads, but instead tried to push DoTArchon then Cantrip (briefly) for content. This is another case where Proph could have simply rested on the work already done, put down a safe vote, and coast. I'm not wild about Proph's deferral to Axelrod over KJ and his settling on DoTA/EcoTrip team as that was definitely the lowest hanging fruit (#883), especially since despite a fair amount of interaction Proph didn't really try to read me, just relied on Cantrip's very few posts and PoE. However, I find it quite difficult to scumread Proph for this because I thought DoTA was scum as well (oops), and Proph is at least showing flexibility in his reads rather than rigidly sticking to his D1 convictions.
D3 - Not a fan of Proph's lamenting over DoTA at the start of the Day. DoTA had a lot of scum points against him, and never really made an effort to appear town or save himself, so it's a bit over the top for Proph to "blame himself" for it - certaintly the doubts listed in #1110 should really have been brought up before the fact. That being said, Proph has still been fairly spiky and engaged toDay - I'll believe the behind-the-scenes work on ISOs when I see it but the LW summary is a good start (and another opportunity to express doubt passed up). I do like that he came into the Day having to reevaluate his world after the DoTA flip - it would have been easy for scum-Proph to either keep pusing EcoTrip by PoE or just pick whichever of KJ/GF isn't his buddy and bury them. A lot does come down to his final set of reads, how good the analysis is, and how well they line with his progressions.
Overall, D1 looks really good for Proph. I just can't see why he would make so many big calls or not seek safe/conservatives plays as scum when both are really against his natural desire when playing as Mafia. However, when I started this I basically wrote Proph off as obv town and was prepared to just go through the motions, but actually late D2 and the start of D3 has given me pause. D2 in particular was a lot lower energy, barning Axel, and voting for the softest team. I think I can see this from a town perspective of someone with a confident PoE (which #660 was) relaxing because no-one listened to them over Osie/GJ, and at least the start of D2 was good, but the main thing I'd be looking for in scum Proph is the energy levels dropoing off after the D1 he had. I don't think they have dropped as far as they could have, even in to D3 assuming these ISOs do come out and he has been engaged even if there hasn't been reams of content.
So yeah, I ultimately think Proph probably is town because I really struggle to see D1 coming from scum, and the bits I don't like are not impossible to have come from town with a confident PoE and irritation at having been ignored D1. Not as confident as I want to be after the D1, but enough that I think if scum-Proph really was pulling out all the stops and going against his natural scum game for the last MTGS game then he wouldn't be slowing down and trying to reevalute: he'd be trying to control the game and just hard push his PoE for the win.
In terms of Proph, there are too many, "I believe this is what he would", going on
but I guess that's mafia for you, you decide what you think is happening
ultimately though, I think most of what you said is irrelevant, at least irrelevant in the sense that it doesn't help me see town!Proph here
cause I look at him differently
though the frustration towards DV and trying to get low posters killed before top posters, looks good?
but like it was incorrect, so meh
on a micro level a lot of the stuff he does just feels like an attempt to look uninformed, and ignoring those posts are bad, because a lot of that style is the crux of Proph's scum play
but if you want me to think you are a wolf, you are doing a good job in the sense of removing Proph, since in that world, its you/Killjoy
and I vote you first. Anyways, I think this game all about pocketing Killjoy right now, since he is town in my eyes, and probably will win or lose this game today.
You talking about Proph is good in that sense, but Proph talking about me is weird in that sense
meh
On (1) I don't really agree. Obviously I can only read #499 with hindsight, but it seems like the read was Proph saying things Osie did weren't as scummy as they appeared - and that's pretty fine for D1. Especially since Proph got a headstart by correctly guessing Crossbell was Osie, and actually trying to out Crossbell's identity to support the town read with meta is a good look for Proph. If Proph had been mafia defending town-Osie, I would have expected Proph to come in D2 and start hunting via the wagon, but he didn't: suggesting it wasn't a tactical play.
I also don't think I fully agree with (2) - I: think Proph has mostly been pretty good at putting his reads out there and voting them as opposed to looking for wagons. I certainly find it hard to think of a scum agenda behind the Osie reveal and DV read. Where I do agree with Grape (and this bleeds into (3)) is the focus on DoTA specifically and the reaction to DoTA's flip - and the comparison between KJ and DoTA is actually very interesting (but could be explainable by Proph just choosing to sheep Axel over his own judgement on KJ).
So the case on Proph is not without merit, but I'm coming away with "is that it?". Yeah, Proph got sloppy over DoTA and I came to similar misgivings above. But Proph also has a very large body of work that Grape is overlooking malciously. All the D1 has been handwaved as "agenday" (and Grape never responded when I asked for clarification on D2) with focus put on individual events that look bad instead of within the wider context of Proph's ISO and the game. It doesn't help that if Proph is town, then GF has to be scum who has just been pushing this fringe case all game instead of having to engage with active wagons. Let's not forget that after Grape voted Osie and he flipped town, Grape's world view basically didn't change: he kept pushing Proph.
and what exactly did that flip have to do with his read of Proph?
Oh you're right, Grape scum-read Crossbell then bailed on that read when Osie revealed himself. Then it became a town read when GJ replaced in for ??. It would matter because if you vote someone who you think is scum and they flip town, you should at least try and reevaluate the person who read them as town rather than just plough on. But since the vote on GJ was self-pres then I guess that doesn't count against Grape so much.
try to talk to me about Killjoy when u get a chance, since from your PoV the team is exactly Killjoy/Grape
and they are possibly the only team that doesn't have much of anything removing the possibility of its existence, I sound Grape voting Killjoy near EoD yesterday
you and Grape also don't really have much removing the possibility of the team
I can't really see myself re-evaluating Grape honestly
but as it stands, this is where we are
Killjoy thinks Proph is town
I think Grape/Killjoy are town
Grape thinks the wolf team is exactly Proph/Killjoy
You think Grape is bad, and that me and proph are town
so from each perspective
Grape: Proph/Killjoy
Me: Proph/Eco
Eco: Grape/Killjoy?
Proph: (Grape/Killjoy/Eco)
Killjoy: (Grape/Me/Eco)
you argue that Osie flipping town, means that Grape should have re-evaluated his read on Proph, because Osie liked them
where exactly has anyone listened to a dead players reads this game?
I am also trying to understand the wolf motivation for Grape to switch his read on Osie after it was revealed he was Osie.
I don't think KJ was realistically going to happen at that point, so I guess it was just a little distancing to make F5 easier. But you're right it was a bit weird, I'll try and go through all their interactions and see if there's anything else.
You are pretty much right that it basically just comes down to who KJ and Proph think the team are though.
I meant because Proph town read Osie and was right. Since Grape was wolf-reading Proph and ended up agreeing with him that GJ was town-looking, I think town-Grape would have been more interested in reevaluating Proph than he was.
Because other players did as well for the same reason, and Grape didn't want to be left holding the bag on the wagon. Note that in #474 when Grape unvoted he said "Definitely going to need to reevaluate and see how much of my case still makes sense with that meta." but never actually did.