Damn getting blamed for a lynch i didnt want. Crazy.
Consistency/inconsistency is rarely AI imo
For sloth, that definitely ties into my basketball analogy. His way of interacting with the thread is much showier and hollower. Hes shooting long 2s and getting lost in transition
Think hes scum
She was not being allowed to take the drone with her on her return to Sursamen. SC agent + combat drone was a combination that was well known far beyond the Culture. Although perilously close to a cliché, it remained a partnership you could, allegedly, still frighten children and bad people with.
The platform’s own drone-standard AI was, with her permission, moving slowly through her suite of enhancements and gradually turning off those it was thought the Morthanveld might object to. Click. There went the electromagnetic effector ability. She could still sense EM activity but she couldn’t affect it any more. She had lived most of her life without such abilities and to date had used very few of them in anger, but she experienced their going with a distinct sense of loss and even dismay.
She looked down at her fingernails. They appeared normal at the moment, but she’d already thought the signal that would make them detach and fall off by the following morning. New nails would grow back during the next few days, but they wouldn’t be Coherent Radiation Emission Weapons, they wouldn’t be lasers.
Oh well, she thought, inspecting them. Even ordinary, unamended nails could still scratch.
I’m a jailkeeper, looks like I finally guessed right. Certainly would’ve preferred to not be outed but that’s a post game discussion, and at least we net scum.
I mean, if we lynch neither of them and mafia don't want to reveal who's lying, they'd have to shoot around the jailkeeper unless they also had a roleblocker.
Agree with this, if we keep both alive, we know one is bad and force mafia to decide the pros/cons of keeping a powerful role in the game vs. outing a mafia. If we shoot wrong, we have killed a powerful role and delayed a mafia kill. If we shoot right, mafia just kill the jailkeeper next. Unless we truly can't come to a consensus on a strong mafia read, my instinct is to shoot elsewhere for at least tonight. But overall, yeah, think Tubba is scum over Shadow unless shadow just had a list of flavors prepared for each possible role. Are there other known roles that would fit in this scenario that Shadow could have prepared for? It is crazy that of all the roles Tubba could have chosen it would just so happen to be the one that shadow had, unless there are only like 3 roles that could fit that scenario?
@tom: why propose to lynch outside of tubba/shadow?
@Shadow: what were your thoughts when GJ first softed?
”Oh my gosh, ZDS is clear and GJ knows who the killer is.”
Thx. I understand how you went to the tom conclusion now. Let’s lynch tubba
@tom: you know lynching mafia is always better than lynching maybe not mafia, right?
lynching a goon might force them to not use another skill to do the kill.
Yeah, that's true, especially since shadow's flavor thing was wildly detailed while tubba's was delayed and vague
I think it’s very unlikely this is a four way town fest. I feel very strongly that ZDS is town. There’s no logical reason for GJ to mention anything if he’s scum. I know I’m town, so Shadow has to be scum unless we are in the incredibly unlucky world where we are all town.
you do not think thats a possibility
Come on bro
No I don’t, but I was asked if I’d considered the possibility.
It’s not impossible just incredibly improbable.
Why didn't you do a detailed flavor claim when Shadow basically copied his verbatim?
Ferbin Hausk, Prince
I essentially have my target detained and questioned regarding the conspiracy.
My flavor is “The Liveware Problem, Militarized Culture SuperLifter” and I use effectors to hold someone in place (protecting them from kills but rendering them unable to act).
@Umami
???
still waiting for someone to answer my first question
and for Tubba to answer my question towards them
Ferbin Hausk, Prince
I essentially have my target detained and questioned regarding the conspiracy.
My flavor is “The Liveware Problem, Militarized Culture SuperLifter” and I use effectors to hold someone in place (protecting them from kills but rendering them unable to act).
@Umami
???
still waiting for someone to answer my first question
and for Tubba to answer my question towards them
so let me clarify some things
Shadow originally just claimed Doctor?
The answer to that question, which you could read for yourself if you go back like 2 pages, is no.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Also shadow, why not stick with the doctor claim? Did you think Tubba was purposefully trying to claim something that could exist with your role? I feel like staying doctor kept WIFOM high?
then what was this?
@Axelrod
maybe I would've found it, that's not really relevant
I'd rather ask than back read because that's what I do a lot of the time
Also shadow, why not stick with the doctor claim? Did you think Tubba was purposefully trying to claim something that could exist with your role? I feel like staying doctor kept WIFOM high?
then what was this?
@Axelrod
That was Shadow initially attempting to be vague about what his ability was and GJ thinking that it was a doctor hint based on his result, and then Shadow counter-claiming Jailer instead of pretending/leaving it ambiguous about what he was.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I’m a jailkeeper, looks like I finally guessed right. Certainly would’ve preferred to not be outed but that’s a post game discussion, and at least we net scum.
Tubba, why did you choose to target ZDS?
He seemed a plausible choice for the nk, he was my towniest read. As for the flavour, operatives of the Culture’s covert Special Circumstances intelligence organization helps me by detaining my target and holding them for a “gentle” interrogation.
I have a weird conflict for today, and I am not quite sure how to handle it. Let's suffice to say that I have a good feeling about you ZDS. I hope my explanation looks good. I want you to continue watching this game carefully.
To me, who knew ZDS was either the target, or the killer, this line basically confirmed that GJ saw me and someone else (tubba), because if he just saw me then his good feeling made no sense.
waiting for Tubba's response, if they were answering me
then I am not really a fan of Tom throwing mud at them for answering a question that was asked to them
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Sloth: I have seen agenda from scumtom. Zero Escape comes to mind.
I will say though, the way he's, like, arguing with GJ of how he's reading him is weird. Tom's breaking charatcer in a weird way there.
I doubt it makes him scum or anything but it's a step in that direction for me.
And with regard to you playing it closer to the vest... like last game you had all this witty banter and were natural and this game you seem... stiff.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Tubba claimed Jailer before ZDS claimed to have no abilities that could be blocked.There was no way he could have known that ZDS wouldn't be able to know that a block was performed there. So Tubba could be a Roleblocker that tried to block ZDS AND perform the kill on him.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Actually it's probably just a dichotomy and ZDS is just town huh?
Unless there's two Jailkeepers.
Even Terrible-At-Setups me can probably guess that's not a thing.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
FYI if there were two Jailkeeper roles one would have failed because one would have gone off first, yes? Therefore removing the target from being targeted by other roles such as the other Jailkeeper.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I think Axel is right about Tubba being more likely for the way he handled his result today vs. Shadow's handling of the same result.
Axel is still a strong townread.
GJ and ZDS are clear.
Tom is moving slightly down from where he was.
Umsmi is still probably town.
Rhand is... catching my attention. So is Sloth.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Damn getting blamed for a lynch i didnt want. Crazy.
Consistency/inconsistency is rarely AI imo
For sloth, that definitely ties into my basketball analogy. His way of interacting with the thread is much showier and hollower. Hes shooting long 2s and getting lost in transition
Think hes scum
Wasn't it grape's analogy?
mine from mountainous spec
Grape has added several more. Though he missed the obvious rodemy=dennis rodman
As we know, I was presumably the NK attempt. It was to be somewhat expected that I would be, since generally speaking I'm a good player, a town leader, and I've been receiving positive attention.
All of this also makes me an obvious protection target. That in turn makes it an extremely bold move by scum to target me Night 1. You don't typically go for one of the obvious protection targets Night 1.
From that I can infer at least one of the following to be true:
— The scum didn't think things through. This would make careful and attentive players less likely to be scum, reckless players more so, and players who don't know me (and may have underestimated my likelihood of being protected) more so as well;
— The scum did think things through, only they figured I wouldn't be/couldn't be protected (for stronger reasons than betting on someone else being protected). I don't find this likely, but if true, it would make imaginative players more likely to be scum;
— The scum really wanted me dead regardless of the risk involved, because by living longer I pose a threat to them *anyway*. This would make anyone I appeared to suspect Day 1 more likely to be scum, and any of the common scumspects I disagreed with more likely to be town;
— The scum are fine with targeting veterans right away and aren't afraid their own vets may eventually get POEd (earlier) as a result. This would make other veterans less likely to be scum. There's a caveat however: several vets are being scumspected, it wouldn't rise too many eyebrows if eg Axel or tom lived a few more Days.
With all this in mind, I am tentatively clearing tom, KillJoy and Axel. Johnny is claim-cleared and shadow will be cleared if Tubba flips scum (if not, he should be vigged if possible). Normally I would clear Sloth as well, but due to his struggles I could see him making major mistakes.
As for who this may incriminate, I don't know yet. It would be worth reviewing my Day 1 posts to see who may have felt threatened by them. If someone could do that review from an outside perspective (ie not mine) that would be great.
Rhand is in this weird position where I could both clear him for knowing the kill was risky, or suspect him for really wanting me dead (and for not being a stranger to reckless and silly gambles).
---
I agree that Tubba seems to be playing in damage control mode. The fact he nonetheless persists in attacking Rhand is... interesting. It will be worth coming back to this when/if he flips scum.
Tubba, give us reads, thoughts and observations. Lots and lots of them. Open your heart completely. If you are town, now is not the time to be "tight-lipped". Don't wait for questions and pokes. Like Axel says, be proactive.
I wouldn't put much weight into theories of what kind of scum Tubba could be. If he is scum, chances are fairly high he was already the scummiest among the scum team, and therefore the least damaging (from that POV) if he gets tracked or watched.
The ideal play (IMO) would have been for Johnny to not hint at anything and push either Tubba or shadow, then claim if it looks like someone else is about to get lynched. But that didn't happen and now that the cats are out of the bag and hissing at each other, it's better to go for the 50% chance than to aim for the fancy superplay.
I agree it's a bold move by Umami to start 1429 handwaving Tubba away if she has access to mafia day chat. Not that she couldn't pull that kind of easy low-risk gambit, but it's a point in her favour anyway.
The only thing I can say in Tubba's favor here is that he did claim Jailer prior to ZDS claiming anything. If ZDS had an ability that he used, the claim would have busted right then, so that was a risk. As opposed to him just claiming "Doctor."
See shadow's quote above.
It does lead to an interesting puzzle if Tubba flips anything other than jailer or roleblocker: why would he risk me claiming I wasn't blocked?
If that happens, I bet he either suicidally tried to fish a counter-claim out of me, or I was gang-banged by scum Tubba and scum shadow together. The first is far more likely. But we'll think about that if it's still relevant after the flip.
@ZDS: Actually that brings up a question GJ might need to ask the mod: If he sees someone use an ability AND kill, does he see them twice? Do assigned kills work like that?
I can't imagine that would work that way but it's a thing I thought of when responding to you.
I think it's possible that you weren't just the kill here, but there's... nothing to suggest that, Tubba and Shadow are counterclaimed on a role that isn't likely duplicated, which means there's scum there. The claimed role is protective, and if somehow you weren't the kill... how in the hell did GJ even catch them? Like it requires an ainsane amount of mental gymnastics to assume, given now public info that all this happened and there's also an unexplained lack of kill because that means that maybe Shadow and tubba are buddies or something?
The likelihoods just kinda go down on all possibilities that aren't the simplest most straightforward one, as far as I can see here.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I agree. I'm putting the thought out there because I don't know if I'll be alive Day 3 to bring it up then. Tubba's flip will either invalidate it or make it relevant.
See, what’s really happening is a 4-way gambit where the scum decided to skip their kill N1 and then offer up dueling counterclaims to explain the missing kill so that by sacrificing one they essentially “clear” all the other three.
So, clearly the lynch order should now be: Tubba->Shadow->ZDS->GJ. Game.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
See, what’s really happening is a 4-way gambit where the scum decided to skip their kill N1 and then offer up dueling counterclaims to explain the missing kill so that by sacrificing one they essentially “clear” all the other three.
So, clearly the lynch order should now be: Tubba->Shadow->ZDS->GJ. Game.
Wait, what?!
The ideal play (IMO) would have been for Johnny to not hint at anything and push either Tubba or shadow, then claim if it looks like someone else is about to get lynched.
The problem is that there were both wolfyish players. I realistically don't know who would be pushed more, and assuming I am correct, one is a doctor. It's a different story if it was one of shadow/Tubba + Rhand, for instance. I probably push the nonRhand player and move on because it looks super natural (based on my reads yesterday).
In order for me to not out, I would have had to had a reasonable guess as to who is lock town and who is the wolf. I didn't really have that between Shadow/Tubba.
See, what’s really happening is a 4-way gambit where the scum decided to skip their kill N1 and then offer up dueling counterclaims to explain the missing kill so that by sacrificing one they essentially “clear” all the other three.
So, clearly the lynch order should now be: Tubba->Shadow->ZDS->GJ. Game.
One day I’m going to do this!
(I’m never going to do this but wish I was.)
@ZDS: No offense, but I think you’re missing another, relatively likely possibility. After Prison Block, it’s clear that you play a good scum game, and thus even if you’re town read, scum might not expect you to be protected because they wouldn’t be expected to kill you. This is doubly true if scum saw your soft claim and went for the PR kill.
As far as speculation that Tubba could be role blocker, I’ve got the question to the mod in as to whether he would be seen twice, but if so, it’s feasible that he went for a kill on you and a block elsewhere, there’s not a heck of a lot of reason to block and kill [unknown, suspected PR townie]. But maybe also he’s not, and something else entirely.
@Tom: the fact that scum can act and kill means there is almost nothing to suggest Tubba is the weakest role, it only suggests he’s the lowest player in the PoE, so I do reject your logic.
I wonder if all the wolves have PRs because of that clause?
given overall posts, and actions if we lock in on voting in this dichotomy, I dont see myself not voting Tubba
unlikely they are v/v given the fact that their roles are identical, its just feels like a straight up counter-claim to buy one day and a mislynch
work all day again so ill be on and off
I am also asking silver now about that. As a host, my assumption would be I only see them once, since the ability describes I see who they target, but not what they do. I have never heard of a watcher seeing a target twice, but that feels really weird. Like Shadow, does it even matter from your perspective? I don't get the obsession with this?
@ZDS: No offense, but I think you’re missing another, relatively likely possibility. After Prison Block, it’s clear that you play a good scum game, and thus even if you’re town read, scum might not expect you to be protected because they wouldn’t be expected to kill you. This is doubly true if scum saw your soft claim and went for the PR kill.
It's a possibility indeed, nevertheless aiming the NK in my direction was still a risky move. Moreover, it still reflects well on people who knew me from before Prison Block.
Besides it's not like my theories point to anyone in particular. It's more of a world-building kind of thing.
I am also asking silver now about that. As a host, my assumption would be I only see them once, since the ability describes I see who they target, but not what they do. I have never heard of a watcher seeing a target twice, but that feels really weird. Like Shadow, does it even matter from your perspective? I don't get the obsession with this?
It doesn’t matter, I was just asked, so why not speculate. And it doesn’t hurt to ask about mechanics.
Wasn't it grape's analogy?
The platform’s own drone-standard AI was, with her permission, moving slowly through her suite of enhancements and gradually turning off those it was thought the Morthanveld might object to. Click. There went the electromagnetic effector ability. She could still sense EM activity but she couldn’t affect it any more. She had lived most of her life without such abilities and to date had used very few of them in anger, but she experienced their going with a distinct sense of loss and even dismay.
She looked down at her fingernails. They appeared normal at the moment, but she’d already thought the signal that would make them detach and fall off by the following morning. New nails would grow back during the next few days, but they wouldn’t be Coherent Radiation Emission Weapons, they wouldn’t be lasers.
Oh well, she thought, inspecting them. Even ordinary, unamended nails could still scratch.
Axelrod - 2 (Slothful, Jackrito)
Vaimes - 1 (Rodemy)
shadowlancerx - 1 (Tubba Fett)
Jackrito - 1 (Umami)
Not Voting - 6 (Grapefruit21, tomsloger, Vaimes, Lastwhisper, Killjoy, Axelrod)
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to achieve a majority.
Day 2 ends at 11:59:59 PM Eastern Time on 05 May 2020.
Vote Count 2.1
Vote Count 1.1
Vote Count 1.2
Vote Count 1.3
Vote Count 1.4
Vote Count 1.5
Vote Count 1.6
Vote Count 1.7
Vote Count 1.8
Vote Count 1.9
Vote Count 1.10 [Final]
End of Day 1
If your vote is uncounted and I didn't say why, please PM me or DM me on Discord so I can investigate.
Tubba, why did you choose to target ZDS?
Agree with this, if we keep both alive, we know one is bad and force mafia to decide the pros/cons of keeping a powerful role in the game vs. outing a mafia. If we shoot wrong, we have killed a powerful role and delayed a mafia kill. If we shoot right, mafia just kill the jailkeeper next. Unless we truly can't come to a consensus on a strong mafia read, my instinct is to shoot elsewhere for at least tonight. But overall, yeah, think Tubba is scum over Shadow unless shadow just had a list of flavors prepared for each possible role. Are there other known roles that would fit in this scenario that Shadow could have prepared for? It is crazy that of all the roles Tubba could have chosen it would just so happen to be the one that shadow had, unless there are only like 3 roles that could fit that scenario?
Yeah, that's true, especially since shadow's flavor thing was wildly detailed while tubba's was delayed and vague
Why didn't you do a detailed flavor claim when Shadow basically copied his verbatim?
I essentially have my target detained and questioned regarding the conspiracy.
My flavor is “The Liveware Problem, Militarized Culture SuperLifter” and I use effectors to hold someone in place (protecting them from kills but rendering them unable to act).
@Umami
???
still waiting for someone to answer my first question
and for Tubba to answer my question towards them
yeah, shadow's is like way more detailed
Why did everyone die after I got home from work
The answer to that question, which you could read for yourself if you go back like 2 pages, is no.
@Axelrod
maybe I would've found it, that's not really relevant
I'd rather ask than back read because that's what I do a lot of the time
He seemed a plausible choice for the nk, he was my towniest read. As for the flavour, operatives of the Culture’s covert Special Circumstances intelligence organization helps me by detaining my target and holding them for a “gentle” interrogation.
Asking only because if he did soft doctor it wouldn't line up with his thoughts below
waiting for Tubba's response, if they were answering me
then I am not really a fan of Tom throwing mud at them for answering a question that was asked to them
Since I woke up today at 6am, a bunch of claiming and counterclaiming seems to have happened.
Catching up with recent posts now.
Looks like tubba and ZDS are a dichotomy somehow. And there's a watcher involved too I think?
I forget the game.
I wanna say Grape was one of the two but I honestly can't remember.
I'm wondering now (in post 1280) if either will claim the DocBlocker variant of Jailer
I will say though, the way he's, like, arguing with GJ of how he's reading him is weird. Tom's breaking charatcer in a weird way there.
I doubt it makes him scum or anything but it's a step in that direction for me.
And with regard to you playing it closer to the vest... like last game you had all this witty banter and were natural and this game you seem... stiff.
One or both of Shadow/Tubba is a Jailkeeper.
GJ is basically confirmed town.
Unless there's two Jailkeepers.
Even Terrible-At-Setups me can probably guess that's not a thing.
Let's talk some more, let other's spew themselves in the thread.
I think Axel is right about Tubba being more likely for the way he handled his result today vs. Shadow's handling of the same result.
Axel is still a strong townread.
GJ and ZDS are clear.
Tom is moving slightly down from where he was.
Umsmi is still probably town.
Rhand is... catching my attention. So is Sloth.
Grape has added several more. Though he missed the obvious rodemy=dennis rodman
Because it keeps the real jailkeeper occupied and mafia free reign to kill anyone else?
If we just lynch a goon today im assuming they can do whatever they want with much better info than our PRs have
As we know, I was presumably the NK attempt. It was to be somewhat expected that I would be, since generally speaking I'm a good player, a town leader, and I've been receiving positive attention.
All of this also makes me an obvious protection target. That in turn makes it an extremely bold move by scum to target me Night 1. You don't typically go for one of the obvious protection targets Night 1.
From that I can infer at least one of the following to be true:
— The scum didn't think things through. This would make careful and attentive players less likely to be scum, reckless players more so, and players who don't know me (and may have underestimated my likelihood of being protected) more so as well;
— The scum did think things through, only they figured I wouldn't be/couldn't be protected (for stronger reasons than betting on someone else being protected). I don't find this likely, but if true, it would make imaginative players more likely to be scum;
— The scum really wanted me dead regardless of the risk involved, because by living longer I pose a threat to them *anyway*. This would make anyone I appeared to suspect Day 1 more likely to be scum, and any of the common scumspects I disagreed with more likely to be town;
— The scum are fine with targeting veterans right away and aren't afraid their own vets may eventually get POEd (earlier) as a result. This would make other veterans less likely to be scum. There's a caveat however: several vets are being scumspected, it wouldn't rise too many eyebrows if eg Axel or tom lived a few more Days.
With all this in mind, I am tentatively clearing tom, KillJoy and Axel. Johnny is claim-cleared and shadow will be cleared if Tubba flips scum (if not, he should be vigged if possible). Normally I would clear Sloth as well, but due to his struggles I could see him making major mistakes.
As for who this may incriminate, I don't know yet. It would be worth reviewing my Day 1 posts to see who may have felt threatened by them. If someone could do that review from an outside perspective (ie not mine) that would be great.
Rhand is in this weird position where I could both clear him for knowing the kill was risky, or suspect him for really wanting me dead (and for not being a stranger to reckless and silly gambles).
---
I agree that Tubba seems to be playing in damage control mode. The fact he nonetheless persists in attacking Rhand is... interesting. It will be worth coming back to this when/if he flips scum.
Tubba, give us reads, thoughts and observations. Lots and lots of them. Open your heart completely. If you are town, now is not the time to be "tight-lipped". Don't wait for questions and pokes. Like Axel says, be proactive.
I wouldn't put much weight into theories of what kind of scum Tubba could be. If he is scum, chances are fairly high he was already the scummiest among the scum team, and therefore the least damaging (from that POV) if he gets tracked or watched.
The ideal play (IMO) would have been for Johnny to not hint at anything and push either Tubba or shadow, then claim if it looks like someone else is about to get lynched. But that didn't happen and now that the cats are out of the bag and hissing at each other, it's better to go for the 50% chance than to aim for the fancy superplay.
I agree it's a bold move by Umami to start 1429 handwaving Tubba away if she has access to mafia day chat. Not that she couldn't pull that kind of easy low-risk gambit, but it's a point in her favour anyway.
---
Do you think he RBd me and the lack of kill is still unexplained, or do you think he both RBd and tried to kill me?
Same question to Killjoy, and to anyone else who had a similar thought.
See shadow's quote above.
It does lead to an interesting puzzle if Tubba flips anything other than jailer or roleblocker: why would he risk me claiming I wasn't blocked?
If that happens, I bet he either suicidally tried to fish a counter-claim out of me, or I was gang-banged by scum Tubba and scum shadow together. The first is far more likely. But we'll think about that if it's still relevant after the flip.
He didn't claim anything before Tubba did, but heavily hinted at being some kind of protection role.
Umami, the typical set-up here will have 25% scum.
---
Before we even discuss ending the Day, I want to see the analyses we were promised.
I can't imagine that would work that way but it's a thing I thought of when responding to you.
I think it's possible that you weren't just the kill here, but there's... nothing to suggest that, Tubba and Shadow are counterclaimed on a role that isn't likely duplicated, which means there's scum there. The claimed role is protective, and if somehow you weren't the kill... how in the hell did GJ even catch them? Like it requires an ainsane amount of mental gymnastics to assume, given now public info that all this happened and there's also an unexplained lack of kill because that means that maybe Shadow and tubba are buddies or something?
The likelihoods just kinda go down on all possibilities that aren't the simplest most straightforward one, as far as I can see here.
So, clearly the lynch order should now be: Tubba->Shadow->ZDS->GJ. Game.
Wait, what?!
The problem is that there were both wolfyish players. I realistically don't know who would be pushed more, and assuming I am correct, one is a doctor. It's a different story if it was one of shadow/Tubba + Rhand, for instance. I probably push the nonRhand player and move on because it looks super natural (based on my reads yesterday).
In order for me to not out, I would have had to had a reasonable guess as to who is lock town and who is the wolf. I didn't really have that between Shadow/Tubba.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
(I’m never going to do this but wish I was.)
@ZDS: No offense, but I think you’re missing another, relatively likely possibility. After Prison Block, it’s clear that you play a good scum game, and thus even if you’re town read, scum might not expect you to be protected because they wouldn’t be expected to kill you. This is doubly true if scum saw your soft claim and went for the PR kill.
As far as speculation that Tubba could be role blocker, I’ve got the question to the mod in as to whether he would be seen twice, but if so, it’s feasible that he went for a kill on you and a block elsewhere, there’s not a heck of a lot of reason to block and kill [unknown, suspected PR townie]. But maybe also he’s not, and something else entirely.
@Tom: the fact that scum can act and kill means there is almost nothing to suggest Tubba is the weakest role, it only suggests he’s the lowest player in the PoE, so I do reject your logic.
given overall posts, and actions if we lock in on voting in this dichotomy, I dont see myself not voting Tubba
unlikely they are v/v given the fact that their roles are identical, its just feels like a straight up counter-claim to buy one day and a mislynch
work all day again so ill be on and off
The GJ way path to no lynching:
It's a possibility indeed, nevertheless aiming the NK in my direction was still a risky move. Moreover, it still reflects well on people who knew me from before Prison Block.
Besides it's not like my theories point to anyone in particular. It's more of a world-building kind of thing.