Shadow, I can't help but be paranoid of you, especially based on your signature.
I am giving you a lot of credit because your tone was excited to me. If you were a wolf that targeted someone, and got the hint you were watched, what would you have done differently?
@Tubba: Outside of you and Shadow, who looks the worse from reactions to all of this?
Actually, shadow same question.
Oh paranoia on me is fine, I get it. But it should be pretty apparent in how direct I was to you that I knew you saw more than one person, which as scum I wouldn’t have known if ZDS was BP or protected.
As far as what I would have done, play it cool, give it time, and contingency plan. Actually the scenario listed in my sig I basically did exactly that.
Tom wanting you lynch elsewhere is a bad look, but it’s Tom so I don’t know how to look at that. I’m not a huge fan of Sloth basically ignoring the current dealings to continue his side conversation. Rhand looks okay, he seems to want to solve, and Tubba is voting him which is...something.
I mean, if we lynch neither of them and mafia don't want to reveal who's lying, they'd have to shoot around the jailkeeper unless they also had a roleblocker.
I don't think Tubba did anything to suggest his protection/block was successful. shadow, to his credit, did poke at ZDS a bunch and immediately jumped on GJ's soft.
Also GJ, next time you want to soft a result, don't have a vote on a completely unrelated person in the same post.
I am not going to lie, I had tom's thought a few seconds after I posted, and freaked out because what if I just outed 3 town PRs.
And then I thought, how cold would the ******* deck have to be to catch two other town people targeting an already townie read person and no night kill.
I don't think Tubba did anything to suggest his protection/block was successful. shadow, to his credit, did poke at ZDS a bunch and immediately jumped on GJ's soft.
Why would I want to draw attention to it? It was obvious something happened and I don’t see the benefit in tipping my hand. If I was scum looking for PR’s, I can see poking around. Otherwise, keep quiet and see what happens
But the risk of putting it off a day and trying for that seems lower than the risk of mislynching town jk...
Except odds are astronomically high we will still have to solve the shadow/Tubba dichotomy by lynching one of them.
i mean, yes. Im obviously not suggesting keeping them both alive forever
But with their claims + johnnys watch its overwhelmingly likely that one is town jk and one the scum that performed a kill. Which is not gonna be the important scum roles.
Again not much in the way of reward. Its largely risk minimization.
But prolly agree overall not worth it. Getting the info early informs all later decisions etc
But man does getting it wrong here between the two suck hard.
Its probably just tubba though
Don't really have the time go through this till later, don't let's not kill anyone yet, I was happy to vote Tubba because I wanted more from them given how they played day 1, didn't expect a dichotomy
From what I've read GJ softdd before either claimed, so I don't really think who claimed first really matters, but hey that's just me
My flavor is “The Liveware Problem, Militarized Culture SuperLifter” and I use effectors to hold someone in place (protecting them from kills but rendering them unable to act).
I’m a jailkeeper, looks like I finally guessed right. Certainly would’ve preferred to not be outed but that’s a post game discussion, and at least we net scum.
I'm not sure the CC matters. I imagine that had shadow claimed first, Tubba would've CC'd. Scum want to bank on town mislynching between the dichotomy so they can get rid of both the jailer and the watcher.
@Tubba: Outside of you and Shadow, who looks the worse from reactions to all of this?
Actually, shadow same question.
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Rhand, who would you be voting if shadow didn't counterclaim (but claimed an unrelated role instead)? What if we got shadow to claim first and Tubba counterclaimed?
I'm not sure the CC matters. I imagine that had shadow claimed first, Tubba would've CC'd. Scum want to bank on town mislynching between the dichotomy so they can get rid of both the jailer and the watcher.
I’m open to reasons why Shadow over tubba.
But not open to lynching outside these two.
Tubba's doesn't have a lot going on. The ZDS protection makes sense. There isn't any sort of PR soft that I can see. He doesn't seem to care about being townread, which I guess could mesh with being a protective role but could just as easily be a Tubba thing.
shadow also doesn't have anything that looks like a "ho ho ho I have a protective claim up my sleeve for when I eventually get run up" soft. He has ZDS much lower in his reads than Tubba did.
I think town!shadow would've voted tom without needing to be asked. GJ was clearly claiming watcher, shadow would know that he was seen with someone else visiting ZDS, and GJ's post made it sound like tom was the guilty party. shadow kind of poked at the claim a bit before voting, which I don't like.
I’ve spent this entire day so far prodding at ZDS, trying to figure out if he was the kill target, or if he was scum who tried to kill.
He sorted PR and would have been a good kill target. Not gonna lie, I also kind of thought he could have been scum, so jailing him was a win/win. (Also, since he already stated as much, I have a role read on him having to do with not being night activated)
You simultaneously thought he was a good kill target, and that he could've been scum?
You didn't think about protecting one of your actual townreads?
You spectated Prison Block, were you not following during the "Rodemy, read the ******* flips" episode? I wouldn't put much weight either way into Rod not paying attention/not reading posts.
---
Quote from Wikipedia synopsis on the book »
Like many Shellwords, the core of Sursamen is known to be inhabited by a mysterious creature called a Xinthian Tensile Aeranothaur, whom the Sarl worship as their "WorldGod."
The Iln entity kills all nearby Sarl and Octs - including both Oramen and tyl Loesp - with a small thermonuclear explosion—after thanking them for their help—and heads towards the core of the Shellworld, planning to capture the Xinthian "WorldGod" and then destroy Sursamen by generating and detonating antimatter.
Litterally the only way the WorldGod makes sense as vanilla is if silver intentionally tried to punish flavourgaming.
But if I use my own role as a reference, and google-fu since I've never read the source novels, you absolutely can flavourgame it correctly (ie the importance of my role and that of my character seem to fit together).
It's not a slamdunk by any means because flavour arguments never are, but I can't bring myself to see it as entirely meaningless.
Additionally, the right way to use a jailer role early is to try and block rather than protect. When I can do both at once it is excellent. Him openly coming out as a PR had a twofold result, I suspected he might be scum cause it shows he wasn’t worried about outing, but it also paints a target on his back as town because good scum kill PRs.
@Tubba: Outside of you and Shadow, who looks the worse from reactions to all of this?
Actually, shadow same question.
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Rhand, who would you be voting if shadow didn't counterclaim (but claimed an unrelated role instead)? What if we got shadow to claim first and Tubba counterclaimed?
If Shadow didn’t counterclaim, I would assume the jailer is what saved you and vote Shadow.
If tubba counterclaimed, I would vote Shadow.
I don’t think mafia automatically counterclaims here. It’s risk vs reward. Claiming a believable town role has long term survival chances. A counterclaim is 1 vs 1, which favours town.
Maybe this is just me being pocketed, but I buy shadow using jail in an agrro way then defensive and this would also match up with him having ZDS as lower on his read list. His whole tone and play has came off better then Tubba during all this as well. The way he described his ablity felt more real also unless he is Mafia RB or they have really good fake claims.
If Shadow didn’t counterclaim, I would assume the jailer is what saved you and vote Shadow.
If tubba counterclaimed, I would vote Shadow.
I don’t think mafia automatically counterclaims here. It’s risk vs reward. Claiming a believable town role has long term survival chances. A counterclaim is 1 vs 1, which favours town.
Sure, but the scum in this situation was already caught. It's already a 1v1, so they might as well get a mislynch out of it.
@Vaimes:Additionally, the right way to use a jailer role early is to try and block rather than protect. When I can do both at once it is excellent. Him openly coming out as a PR had a twofold result, I suspected he might be scum cause it shows he wasn’t worried about outing, but it also paints a target on his back as town because good scum kill PRs.
Ehhh, that's not a soft. ZDS wouldn't be so sloppy. Like maybe, but I saw that post and didn't think for a second it was a serious PR claim.
I don't mind how shadow reacted to Johnny's initial hint, from his perspective (if town) the stopped killer was (most likely) either whoever else targeted me, or me myself.
shadow do you *always* look hard for PR hints?
I'm not fond of Rhand going for the logical vote rather than the behavioural one, and I barn Vaimes's criticism of it, but at least he applies his logic equally.
Its pretty easy to choose between tubba and shadow. Even without shadows genuine looking reaction to gj soft, i was townreading him and wolfreading tubba.
I do think the technically optimal play, if im correctly assuming that the wolf among the two is vanilla, is to lynch elsewhere.
But i certainly dont have anyone i think is more likely wolf than tubba.
Maybe not even more likely than shadow... its probably 70/30 which gut says puts him in about a 3 way tie for second strongest wolf read with jack and sloth...
But more than that i think id rather play suboptimally (again, if im even right on that) and have a flip so
On the plus side, I cant see a scenario where zds is scum here. Gj seems pretty unlikely with either tubba or shadow, though i still think he played this really badly. A little better now i realize that the soft was his d2 entrance but still.
I will absolutely talk with you post game about this tom, but apart from the fact that I can't be subtle apparently, I would be really curious as to who wouldn't out with two people targeting a single universal town read player and no kill happening. My immediate thought wasn't "I guess he got watched and doctored." It was "I think I just saw the night kill."
In addition to the fact that the two people I saw were both wolfy. If it was like Rhand/LW targeting ZDS, I might have held my tongue and explored those worlds a bit more, before I out.
Also shadow, why not stick with the doctor claim? Did you think Tubba was purposefully trying to claim something that could exist with your role? I feel like staying doctor kept WIFOM high?
Also shadow, why not stick with the doctor claim? Did you think Tubba was purposefully trying to claim something that could exist with your role? I feel like staying doctor kept WIFOM high?
Because I know enough about game balance to know that wouldn’t make it past review, and I can still wifom whether I’ll target you or not. So scum can try and kill you, and have a 50% chance of missing a kill again, or they can kill me and have a 50% shot at getting caught. Or they can try and kill ZDS who is now clear, and have a 50% shot of that failing.
Late to the party, but my current $.02 is that Tubba is about 90% more likely to be the scum here than Shadow. Looking back now.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I have a weird conflict for today, and I am not quite sure how to handle it. Let's suffice to say that I have a good feeling about you ZDS. I hope my explanation looks good. I want you to continue watching this game carefully.
To me, who knew ZDS was either the target, or the killer, this line basically confirmed that GJ saw me and someone else (tubba), because if he just saw me then his good feeling made no sense.
@rhand
If we have a watcher and a jk, wolves ~always have some kind of roleblocker/redirector/busdriver/etc
And that wolf is extremely unlikely to have performed the n1 kill
Thus, is not tubba or shadow
The actual "ideal" result for today:
Lynch that role
Give our PRs a night unfettered to play chicken with wolves
Lynch the goon later. Possibly even with more info to get it right
Still not convinced this is wrong but i dont think im gonna push it.
This is Mafia 101, but if you are a Jailer and you have Jailed someone on a night there was no kill, that ought to trigger something. Either you think you've protected your target, or you've RB'd your target. And for most people, you would be interested in trying to figure that out, and there would be some kind of follow-up there. So, Tubba's first post:
Sorry for my absence, should’ve V/LA this weekend.
@Rod
The easiest way to put it is when other people say “kooky Rod”, I feel like does that make me “kooky Tubba”?
@ZDS
Just for posterity, you’re scum read was solidified because you felt that I didn’t do enough to sway a majority of my peers off of a lynch I wasn’t sure was wrong.
What would you have done in my position? Keep in mind, you have no town cred, 3/4 of the players scum reading you, and you’re not sure the lynch is wrong?
@Axel
Literally, I was largely incommunicado.
Figuratively, I’m not super shocked ITF flopped green. The absence of any counterplay pointed to a weak scum team or townITF. I don’t think we need to dig into the other implications of night time.
I don’t like Last’s low key OMGUS, but nobody else seems to care about anything they do.
Rhand is sliding down in my eyes, their position on KJ being scum and letting it slide contradicts their meta of always playing to their wincon. Also looking at the fact that they about faced on the KJ read after being called on it is smelly. Vote Rhand is the direction I want to look at today.
I see nothing here, except I don't know what the bold is supposed to mean. That's a rather large Red Flag for me right off the top.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I wanted to townread ITF but couldnt pull the trigger tbh. I might agree it was ~scummy for me. Towntom gets there some amount of the time and manages to move the lynch.
I will say scumtom prolly doesnt bother with the meta. It wasnt that much work but more work than i think id put in just to soften my stance on the inevitable mislynch. Just spoils some of the credit id have been getting for opposing the wagon. If i did do it as scum i probably come back with a really esoteric townread that convinces no one.
Tom, what is the desired purpose of this post? Also, how is having an esoteric townread that convinces no one different than how you approached ITF?
@ZDS: talk to me about your wagon analysis, specifically what did you find that changed your mind or opinion from where you were yesterday before the analysis?
Here, he at least is engaging with ZDS.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@tom: why propose to lynch outside of tubba/shadow?
@Shadow: what were your thoughts when GJ first softed?
”Oh my gosh, ZDS is clear and GJ knows who the killer is.”
Thx. I understand how you went to the tom conclusion now. Let’s lynch tubba
@tom: you know lynching mafia is always better than lynching maybe not mafia, right?
lynching a goon might force them to not use another skill to do the kill.
As far as what I would have done, play it cool, give it time, and contingency plan. Actually the scenario listed in my sig I basically did exactly that.
Tom wanting you lynch elsewhere is a bad look, but it’s Tom so I don’t know how to look at that. I’m not a huge fan of Sloth basically ignoring the current dealings to continue his side conversation. Rhand looks okay, he seems to want to solve, and Tubba is voting him which is...something.
Except odds are astronomically high we will still have to solve the shadow/Tubba dichotomy by lynching one of them.
Ferbin Hausk, Prince
I essentially have my target detained and questioned regarding the conspiracy.
I am not going to lie, I had tom's thought a few seconds after I posted, and freaked out because what if I just outed 3 town PRs.
And then I thought, how cold would the ******* deck have to be to catch two other town people targeting an already townie read person and no night kill.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Why would I want to draw attention to it? It was obvious something happened and I don’t see the benefit in tipping my hand. If I was scum looking for PR’s, I can see poking around. Otherwise, keep quiet and see what happens
But with their claims + johnnys watch its overwhelmingly likely that one is town jk and one the scum that performed a kill. Which is not gonna be the important scum roles.
Again not much in the way of reward. Its largely risk minimization.
But prolly agree overall not worth it. Getting the info early informs all later decisions etc
But man does getting it wrong here between the two suck hard.
Its probably just tubba though
And since Shadow counterclaimed tubba, tubba is the logical one to lynch.
vote tubba
tom is mafia too.
From what I've read GJ softdd before either claimed, so I don't really think who claimed first really matters, but hey that's just me
I'm assuming you don't believe both your roles can co-exist, so why are you not voting Shadow, or are you, and I missed it?
I mean it's doubtful wolves chose to not kill night 1, so like unless something happened else where, you should be voting Shadow
Ignore most of this if you are
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Rhand, who would you be voting if shadow didn't counterclaim (but claimed an unrelated role instead)? What if we got shadow to claim first and Tubba counterclaimed?
I’m open to reasons why Shadow over tubba.
But not open to lynching outside these two.
Buuut now I'm less sure, so I have to think about it.
Tubba's doesn't have a lot going on. The ZDS protection makes sense. There isn't any sort of PR soft that I can see. He doesn't seem to care about being townread, which I guess could mesh with being a protective role but could just as easily be a Tubba thing.
shadow also doesn't have anything that looks like a "ho ho ho I have a protective claim up my sleeve for when I eventually get run up" soft. He has ZDS much lower in his reads than Tubba did.
You didn't think about protecting one of your actual townreads?
Where's the soft that you thought you saw?
If Shadow didn’t counterclaim, I would assume the jailer is what saved you and vote Shadow.
If tubba counterclaimed, I would vote Shadow.
I don’t think mafia automatically counterclaims here. It’s risk vs reward. Claiming a believable town role has long term survival chances. A counterclaim is 1 vs 1, which favours town.
Okay.
shadow do you *always* look hard for PR hints?
I'm not fond of Rhand going for the logical vote rather than the behavioural one, and I barn Vaimes's criticism of it, but at least he applies his logic equally.
I do think the technically optimal play, if im correctly assuming that the wolf among the two is vanilla, is to lynch elsewhere.
But i certainly dont have anyone i think is more likely wolf than tubba.
Maybe not even more likely than shadow... its probably 70/30 which gut says puts him in about a 3 way tie for second strongest wolf read with jack and sloth...
But more than that i think id rather play suboptimally (again, if im even right on that) and have a flip so
On the plus side, I cant see a scenario where zds is scum here. Gj seems pretty unlikely with either tubba or shadow, though i still think he played this really badly. A little better now i realize that the soft was his d2 entrance but still.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
To answer the question though, yes insofar as playing scum a bunch has pushed me to build that skill, and it’s not something you can just turn off.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Doesnt neccesarily change my read though
ZDS/GJ
<shadow or tubba>
Umami
Grape
Rhand
kj/rod/axel
Vaimes/last
jack/sloth
<tubba or shadow>
Where im at before associatives from <all of this>
@Shadow: what were your thoughts when GJ first softed?
If we have a watcher and a jk, wolves ~always have some kind of roleblocker/redirector/busdriver/etc
And that wolf is extremely unlikely to have performed the n1 kill
Thus, is not tubba or shadow
The actual "ideal" result for today:
Lynch that role
Give our PRs a night unfettered to play chicken with wolves
Lynch the goon later. Possibly even with more info to get it right
Still not convinced this is wrong but i dont think im gonna push it.
Thx. I understand how you went to the tom conclusion now. Let’s lynch tubba
@tom: you know lynching mafia is always better than lynching maybe not mafia, right?
lynching a goon might force them to not use another skill to do the kill.