@Last
I don’t expect the day to end right now but there’s nothing happening. What does that mean about the game state? Do you think it’s possible for KJ and Zion to be town? Why isn’t anyone trying to push their case? What does that mean for the game state?
In what way do you find this to be true? I'm pretty sure Tom and I are being very vocal about our respective cases and pushing for others to join us. Hell, I've been asking literally everyone to prove me wrong.
The thing to note is that there just isn't that much movement from players outside the two wagons.
@KJ: I find it curious by your lack of response to my prompts - my tone was joking, but I was quite serious in looking for a reaction.
@all: Agreed on lyncher. One question though: TP = Town Power? Or...?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Last
I don’t expect the day to end right now but there’s nothing happening. What does that mean about the game state? Do you think it’s possible for KJ and Zion to be town? Why isn’t anyone trying to push their case? What does that mean for the game state?
In what way do you find this to be true? I'm pretty sure Tom and I are being very vocal about our respective cases and pushing for others to join us. Hell, I've been asking literally everyone to prove me wrong.
The thing to note is that there just isn't that much movement from players outside the two wagons.
@KJ: I find it curious by your lack of response to my prompts - my tone was joking, but I was quite serious in looking for a reaction.
@all: Agreed on lyncher. One question though: TP = Town Power? Or...?
I can see that you and Tom are putting out the effort. The post was more to draw attention to the “stalemate” feeling I was getting from it.
@Last
How do you go from thinking it’s possible for both KJ and Zi to be town to naked voting Zion?
@Flarg
Why is KJ’s opinion important enough to warrant direct invitation to your lurker lynch plan? Why not ask the class?
Grape or KCC. Grape sheeped tom on his reads on the two major wagons (says he has his own, still waiting to finish that conversation). KCC seriously keeps not townreading me and it feels intentional. And I feel like, with the way she usually finds her read on me, her asking me if I rolled scum for being hyper serves no purpose.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
well thinking they both can be town is a thing
but like these are the only two trains right now, I think?
and I want someone high to avoid a no lynch when the time comes, unless we choose to CFD
and if we lynch KJ and he flips, you both will here it in the shower room tonight
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Assuming "V/LA" means you won't be around? What does it stand for?
Also what IS it with you kids and your acronyms, back in my day we said "Laughed Out Loud" and we liked it.
@KJ: I feel you're not understanding what I'm saying in regards to the Zion wagon. Still, before that:
I mean, if I'm a counterwagon to Zionite why'd it take so long? Zionite got a bunch of pressure early, with almost no pushback.
This is not really a point, honestly. It doesn't matter when a counterwagon rises so long as one does - and yours did, as I already said, around the midpoint of the Day.
If anything one raising immediately to protect Zionite would be very damning if Z still gets the lynch and flips red. Plus there was also the chance that scum!Zionite would have been able to get out of the chopping block on his own without his teammates being forced to show their hands.
None of this is a guarantee, but it does show that, yes, the timing does not matter, so long as there is one.
#829 pretty much told me for sure you're town and you're solving. You have good reasons to believe what you believe in. I agreed with a lot of it, specifically how things should go down if KJ flips town and if Tom is scum it's been a really obvious and terrible argument to push with. Tom is a really good player. If he commits to something like this, he's pretty damn sure. Because the consequences are dire if he's not right, or a scumTom painting a big fat target on himself for whatever reason, or bussing for literally no reason for town cred. Could be as simple as a town v town tunnel.
So if KJ flips green, the next person lynch should be tom, in your opinion?
I'm a bit worried that I'm going to be essentially forced to vote KJ otherwise I'm lynched instead, when it's definitive for me at least one of us is town and possible both of us are town. Makes me very uncomfortable. Not a fan of the dual wagons meta, but I do see the value in it for reads.
What exactly is your read of KJ, independent of Tom?
You have said you'd happily barn him because your confidence in his skill, would you do this even if you disagree with his read? The term "forced to" seems to indicate that.
I'm actually okay with you answering this. If you've posted in this format before, in this or any other game, please link me to the post.
It's been years to be honest. I won't be able to find you a meta post like that. But I can offer you my thoughts. I was using the preview function and was like "wow no one is going to read this unless I do something to pair it down". So I took the KCC evaluation out because there was a lot of formatting I didn't want to bother with making sure it all worked, but let the link remain if anyone was interested in checking it out. I do think it was a good read.
Fair enough.
If nothing else, however, we know for sure that you hadn't used it at all this game before.
I want to preface by saying that this is very, very reachy. Just another thing to compliment what I've already brought up.
But. I think what you just did there is an example of mirroring, which is a subsconscious psychological response where an individual (you) copes with an accuser/attacker (the guy that's been using the [SNIP] format all game, me) by copying their patterns in an effort to get them to see them as an ally and a nonthreatening entity. Usually the response of a guilty party.
Hi, I'm a counselor.
Convince me that KCC is a better lynch than you and I will.
Protip: You're not going to do that by talking at me about how you're town or saying someone else should be lynched, but by working to solve the game.
I've actually like some posts by you (I even pointed one out when talking about KCC), they just get buried under everything else.
#829 pretty much told me for sure you're town and you're solving. You have good reasons to believe what you believe in. I agreed with a lot of it, specifically how things should go down if KJ flips town and if Tom is scum it's been a really obvious and terrible argument to push with. Tom is a really good player. If he commits to something like this, he's pretty damn sure. Because the consequences are dire if he's not right, or a scumTom painting a big fat target on himself for whatever reason, or bussing for literally no reason for town cred. Could be as simple as a town v town tunnel.
So if KJ flips green, the next person lynch should be tom, in your opinion?
It wouldn't be a bad lynch. I'm not saying automatically, but pretty much everyone should be looking into him.
I'm a bit worried that I'm going to be essentially forced to vote KJ otherwise I'm lynched instead, when it's definitive for me at least one of us is town and possible both of us are town. Makes me very uncomfortable. Not a fan of the dual wagons meta, but I do see the value in it for reads.
What exactly is your read of KJ, independent of Tom?
You have said you'd happily barn him because your confidence in his skill, would you do this even if you disagree with his read? The term "forced to" seems to indicate that.
Just off impressions I'm leaning town on KJ. So that's why I have reservations about lynching him without reading deeply and finding my own reasons. I plan on doing that tonight because that will determine which of us is getting lynched.
I'm actually okay with you answering this. If you've posted in this format before, in this or any other game, please link me to the post.
It's been years to be honest. I won't be able to find you a meta post like that. But I can offer you my thoughts. I was using the preview function and was like "wow no one is going to read this unless I do something to pair it down". So I took the KCC evaluation out because there was a lot of formatting I didn't want to bother with making sure it all worked, but let the link remain if anyone was interested in checking it out. I do think it was a good read.
Fair enough.
If nothing else, however, we know for sure that you hadn't used it at all this game before.
I want to preface by saying that this is very, very reachy. Just another thing to compliment what I've already brought up.
But. I think what you just did there is an example of mirroring, which is a subsconscious psychological response where an individual (you) copes with an accuser/attacker (the guy that's been using the [SNIP] format all game, me) by copying their patterns in an effort to get them to see them as an ally and a nonthreatening entity. Usually the response of a guilty party.
Hi, I'm a counselor.
Yes, that's like definition reaching. Have you considered you may be tunneling?
Convince me that KCC is a better lynch than you and I will.
Protip: You're not going to do that by talking at me about how you're town or saying someone else should be lynched, but by working to solve the game.
I've actually like some posts by you (I even pointed one out when talking about KCC), they just get buried under everything else.
I don't think I have the time before deadline. We'll see.
@slothful
you seem to care more about day 1 wolf reads than I
I'd rather proactively case the people that are being run up now, rather than blow up the thread with my wolf reads
find a possible wolf that isnt in KJ/Zion for me, please?
though I have been particularly lazy in the Zion department
its easier for my to remember Killjoy's thoughts because I've played with him before, and I can case his mindset, while Zion its a little harder
but if Tom's meta means anything then Zion is probably town too
and I really don't want this to be a world of two town wagons
so if we can't dissolve one or the other, then my suggestion is we gamble a 3rd wagon
Sloth ima talk to you directly here because i think youre town and youre not following me.
Which, sure, probably on me. Im not always the best explainer
First of all, the change in KJ i keep talking is not a change in posting style. Its been purely methodology.
My read here is taking into account both:
>the ~5 years of behavioral meta. We are both regular players here. Weve won together as town. Him, anak, and I had a glorious 6 months as scum together before i was eventually redirected to nightkilling myself to lose to an sk. I think hed confirm that scumtom is responsible for mislynching him more than anyone else. Ive also caught him day 1, but lolmicros.
>the last [however many games] since he started leveling up. In particular, ive been either scum or NKed early in ~most of them so have been watching it happen knowing his alignment. Hes become one of my very favorite players. I nominated him for most improved player for mtgs awards, and talked about him in an upcoming podcast. And Ive spent active time thinking about how it was going to play out when he finally rolled wolf in this new phase of his mafia playing.
It is hard to give shorthand to my meta here.
Obviously you can choose how much credence to give it. But i, with the [above experience], am telling you that KJ is scum by both of those sets of meta.
He has abandoned not only his new methodology, but the process by which hes applying it.
And in so doing regressing towards the more social game of scumKJ of old.
Town!Tom should just die unless he is horribly wrong, or they need to move mechanical info from the game
That's my opinion on your slot
See, this is a decent meter of Tom.
Anyway.
Im pretty ok at mafia. Usually better at the charisma-based skills but ive also got decent WIS and INT
Most of my reads in most games are fairly squishy. I operate in ranges and percentage points.
Last two times i remember feeling this strongly: hill house
Started pushing lngrr page 3. Got serious about it a few days later. Got him lynched d1. He flipped scum, i got NKed n1 OTG4
Started pushing cantrip page 6.
This isnt as recent but its a better example because it was a more similar meta-ish read, specifically one based on a metaphor about carson daly that was far more esoteric than what im giving everyone here..
Which is probably why i couldnt get him lynched and he NKed me n1 (town still won)
Last time i remember feeling this strongly and being wrong: twinborn
I lynched townproph so hard.
I've had a chance to reread Killjoy's ISO, and I kinda see some stuff but still not okay to lynch him. So this means that KJ's wagon should be analyzed further because while I've done some FlargTM "objectively scummy" things, I'm not seeing the same from KJ. While yes he is asking some stuff that isn't really followed up on, that could be said of KCC and other players as well. The majority of his posts I'm town-reading. I'm not really sure where he's getting his TownVaimes read though, he's kind of a blank spot for me because Vaimes posts don't really make any impression. Maybe I need to look closer at that.
Here's KJ's posts I do have comments about though.
#91 seems a little disingenuous, kinda fake. And he did this a couple of times like "let me solve" and later "there's no flips so I can't solve". So that's off. #711 is weird. While I agree KCC is likely scum, it's like KJ doesn't want to push KCC for some reason. If KJ were more like Tom, there would have been a vote here and a bigger post about why KCC is scum, because it's a meta argument. Just find it really weird that KJ calls out KCC as scum here but we're not seeing a vote. I could speculate but maybe I'm over-analyzing this one. #748 is a Vaimes aside, and I think what Vaimes is saying here is that a scumTom wouldn't make this play, involving the cellmates and going all in based on meta. Which I totally agree, it would be very reckless for scumTom to do this unless he's bussing, which he had virtually no reason to do so since I was such an easy target, and that would be pretty bad scum play. I don't think KJ picked up on this and instead summed up what Tom's attack is about. Odd. #755 I feel like I've done this at scum, been really frustrated that there was no wall to even argue with. Just a bunch of stacked-up crap votes. But you know, it's pretty frustrating as town too. I don't think Tom is pretending not to know his case is flimsy, but the doubling down on meta arguments gives that impression. Could see it either way. #810 Same as above. Trying to get some content to actually respond to but the wagon is so spontaneous it's hard to nail down why players are voting him. 814 is KJ's T/S list, very helpful. I actually agree with most of this, although my GJ and Tom would be higher and Vaimes, Rhand, Jack lower. Pretty much okay with a lynch on any of his bottom ranked (even though I'm reluctant on Tubba). I want to see more of this but that's going to be real difficult if we lynch him. Also, it would be too easy for scumKJ to scum read me here to get on the easytrain wagon and he doesn't. #921 is a bit of a reach but not uncommon in Town of Salem and other mafia setups. I think he's trying to reconcile why Tom is going so hard and KJ is townreading Tom. It does explain things and it's possible, but not likely. #957 is coming to terms with Tom probably being town. I feel like with a scumKJ this would have been more obvious sooner. This one is hard to see from a scumKJ mindset. #969 More frustration with the situation. And he is right; he's doing solvey things. The T/S list is evidence of that. But again these votes kind of sprang up and there's not a lot to engage with. I get it. #970 I don't like it, I could see it as scummy. But given the circumstances I just can't help but think he's Town. #1013 I hate that he's relying on KCC meta and not more actively pursuing it as a lead. These are valid reads that I don't think he's following up on satisfactorily. But that could be because Tom is so relentless it's hard to concentrate on anything else.
So yeah. I can't vote him. There's not enough here compared to some other options like KCC, Grape. A couple of weird things that could be scummy but I seriously don't get his wagon beyond Tom's tunneling. And having myself be the next popular option, this is a losing proposition either way. We need a new wagon. I'd be good to vote either KCC or Grape.
Oh damn, I think I missed being put at L-2 by Last?
...wait. Why didn't anyone else make this more obvious? This game is weird.
I'm Sean Qestis. I was a restaurant manager before being convicted of arson. Just a plain ol' vanilla town. So you wouldn't be losing much if you need me to flip. I don't want to put KJ to claim either.
I'd say, if you're on my wagon, most of you are justified in being there. I haven't had the townvibes sometimes and there's absolutely a clash of meta going on. But it would be incredible to me if there wasn't scum there too, seeking opportunity but having no real reasons of their own. KCC for sure. Lastwhisper I could definitely see too.
Let me do a T/S before the lynch deadline even if you aren't sold because it could be valuable to the team.
B. Gentleman Johnny
C. Lastwhisper
D. KittyCupCake
D. ZeDorkSlipeur
E. Rhand
E. Vaimes
Way too many unsorted here. Flarg is next after KJ? Tubba way too high? Wat? Not what I was expecting.
one of the more egregious examples of "I am convinced X player is Scum and Y player is defending him so he must be Scum too" I've seen in a while lol
but yeah I disagree with this reads list a lot - tubba way too high, ter, grape too high, lw at null seems weird (i can see people going either way but he should be sortable)
Ok caught up.
I think it's well possible both KJ and Zionite are mafia.
I checked KJ in Seasons and especially his early game feels completely different here indeed.
The one problem with KJ is that I have a scumread on tom off his early posts.
Tom has the tendency to open wolf when he rolls mafia, and in his first post he calls himself "guilty". As a joking response to a mod post, but still, that is typical mafia!tom behaviour.
What also bothers me is that he talks exclusively about KJ. Town!tom doesn't tunnel-focus like that.
One thing that makes less sense in a scum!tom world is how hard he's fighting to get KJ lynched over Zionite.
If KJ flips town, that would put tom in an awful position toMorrow.
Possible worlds where tom is mafia:
mafia!tom is bussing mafia!KJ to protect mafia!Zionite because Zionite has a powerful role and tom wants to protect that AND get towncred for lynching KJ
mafia!tom is chainsawing onto town!KJ to protect mafia!Zionite mafia!tom is bussing mafia!KJ while town!Zionite was going to get lynched
If tom is town, then KJ is likely mafia.
The Zionite wagon seems very pure. If KJ is indeed mafia and Zionite is town, Zionite would be dead already.
So I believe that IF KJ is mafia, Zionite is mafia too.
Making Zionite the best lynch of the Day.
KCC: This is her town game. As mafia she takes control of the narrative. As town she sits back and observes and will only become a big voice after a few gameDays.
Grape: The main problem I have with him is that I don't agree with almost anything he says. It's as if we are reading different games.
ZDS: his Zionite read doesn't feel natural. He calls him LHF while in the same breath saying his KCC case wasn't good.
@Rhand
Tom locks in on KJ very early according to his cell mates, before there was pressure on Zion or anyone else really. I don’t see scum!Tom painting himself into that corner to eliminate town!KJ. Barring corner cases where Tom knows KJ has a powerful role or fears his town game, it doesn’t seem like a reasonable line of play.
@Rhand
Tom locks in on KJ very early according to his cell mates, before there was pressure on Zion or anyone else really. I don’t see scum!Tom painting himself into that corner to eliminate town!KJ. Barring corner cases where Tom knows KJ has a powerful role or fears his town game, it doesn’t seem like a reasonable line of play.
The Zion pressure started very early though.
And tom is tom... you never know what he would do as either alignment lol. He might be smug enough to believe he can get out of getting lynched after dunking a townie.
I do think the bus scenario is slightly more likely though, but only if tom believes KJ would get lynched anyways.
ya because we just mindlessly lynch people on this site because they dunked on a townie the previous day
I will agree that I don't understand this play at the moment if this is in fact wolf!tom, unless he decided to roleplay as ladylambadelta
but even if I believe he is town, I have no reason to agree with his case on Killjoy
one of the more egregious examples of "I am convinced X player is Scum and Y player is defending him so he must be Scum too" I've seen in a while lol
but yeah I disagree with this reads list a lot - tubba way too high, ter, grape too high, lw at null seems weird (i can see people going either way but he should be sortable)
first of all, i think half-sorting the game day 1 is pretty good? Im sure i could give some leans to the nulls but i just dont feel strongly enough to bother before flips.
Realistically, its only the top and bottom tier im locked on and everything else is leans...
Flarg in orange via comparative around KJ. Of the people positioning themselves against my push, hes felt the least like hes trying to solve me over it.
Sloth is town because hes actively figuring me out over it and not even defending kj except that he has a scumread of his own that he believes in.
Terraine is just a skeptic. Looking at me to some degree. Not really looking at kj for herself which is eh but <message reaction test> persists and shes high on the list to reevaluate in unlikely event of kj town
Jack is opposed too but only theoretically and im really just gut town on him separate from it
Last has been more pro-kj than anti-my read. For ? reasons and i think i could easily have put him orange instead/in addition but i didnt because i think his play here only makes sense as scum if he has TMI kj is town.
So yeah kinda defaulted to sticking flarg there because of the lens in looking at the game through. Might be unfair if hes really just that unwilling to <something kind of rude here about playing suboptimally>
But i just dont get the vibe he cares about my or kjs alignments
The other person i actively considered making orange was Johnny
Idk why i didnt
Flarg and kcc feel most likely kj buddies still, but i find kcc just towny enough to leave her in null
@Rhand
Tom locks in on KJ very early according to his cell mates, before there was pressure on Zion or anyone else really. I don’t see scum!Tom painting himself into that corner to eliminate town!KJ. Barring corner cases where Tom knows KJ has a powerful role or fears his town game, it doesn’t seem like a reasonable line of play.
if youre interested in percentages, i had him about 50% to scum when i sent the message, which is (to remind the bad at statistics among us) about double <=rand!scum> and a very strong read that early. It rose steadily and then your case confirming a lot of my feels gave me a last jump to something like 75-80%, which is as high as id ever really go without mechanics or flips
I dont think wolf!me defaults to tmi'ing town!killjoy here
cause personally I think town!killjoy is hard to come by mislynch
and all I do is look like I am whiteknighting, since I not actively attacking your case analytically
The thing to note is that there just isn't that much movement from players outside the two wagons.
@KJ: I find it curious by your lack of response to my prompts - my tone was joking, but I was quite serious in looking for a reaction.
@all: Agreed on lyncher. One question though: TP = Town Power? Or...?
On your time.
Show me an agenda.
I can see that you and Tom are putting out the effort. The post was more to draw attention to the “stalemate” feeling I was getting from it.
@Last
How do you go from thinking it’s possible for both KJ and Zi to be town to naked voting Zion?
@Flarg
Why is KJ’s opinion important enough to warrant direct invitation to your lurker lynch plan? Why not ask the class?
but like these are the only two trains right now, I think?
and I want someone high to avoid a no lynch when the time comes, unless we choose to CFD
and if we lynch KJ and he flips, you both will here it in the shower room tonight
Well if it’s shedding a lurker, I feel like most of us have forgotten dorqueslippeur already.
Underestimated how tired I'd be after work. Anything addressed to me I'll get to tomorrow.
Also what IS it with you kids and your acronyms, back in my day we said "Laughed Out Loud" and we liked it.
@KJ: I feel you're not understanding what I'm saying in regards to the Zion wagon. Still, before that:
This is not really a point, honestly. It doesn't matter when a counterwagon rises so long as one does - and yours did, as I already said, around the midpoint of the Day.
If anything one raising immediately to protect Zionite would be very damning if Z still gets the lynch and flips red. Plus there was also the chance that scum!Zionite would have been able to get out of the chopping block on his own without his teammates being forced to show their hands.
None of this is a guarantee, but it does show that, yes, the timing does not matter, so long as there is one.
Also clarify this for me - wrong in what way? Scummier or Townier than you thought?
ok boomer
What exactly is your read of KJ, independent of Tom?
You have said you'd happily barn him because your confidence in his skill, would you do this even if you disagree with his read? The term "forced to" seems to indicate that.
Fair enough.
If nothing else, however, we know for sure that you hadn't used it at all this game before.
I want to preface by saying that this is very, very reachy. Just another thing to compliment what I've already brought up.
But. I think what you just did there is an example of mirroring, which is a subsconscious psychological response where an individual (you) copes with an accuser/attacker (the guy that's been using the [SNIP] format all game, me) by copying their patterns in an effort to get them to see them as an ally and a nonthreatening entity. Usually the response of a guilty party.
Hi, I'm a counselor.
Convince me that KCC is a better lynch than you and I will.
Protip: You're not going to do that by talking at me about how you're town or saying someone else should be lynched, but by working to solve the game.
I've actually like some posts by you (I even pointed one out when talking about KCC), they just get buried under everything else.
It wouldn't be a bad lynch. I'm not saying automatically, but pretty much everyone should be looking into him.
Just off impressions I'm leaning town on KJ. So that's why I have reservations about lynching him without reading deeply and finding my own reasons. I plan on doing that tonight because that will determine which of us is getting lynched.
Yes, that's like definition reaching. Have you considered you may be tunneling?
I don't think I have the time before deadline. We'll see.
you seem to care more about day 1 wolf reads than I
I'd rather proactively case the people that are being run up now, rather than blow up the thread with my wolf reads
find a possible wolf that isnt in KJ/Zion for me, please?
its easier for my to remember Killjoy's thoughts because I've played with him before, and I can case his mindset, while Zion its a little harder
but if Tom's meta means anything then Zion is probably town too
and I really don't want this to be a world of two town wagons
so if we can't dissolve one or the other, then my suggestion is we gamble a 3rd wagon
if you haven't already, can we get the state of the wagons again?
VC please
I keep saying I'll do things, but then I don't
maybe later in the morning once I wake up
Which, sure, probably on me. Im not always the best explainer
First of all, the change in KJ i keep talking is not a change in posting style. Its been purely methodology.
My read here is taking into account both:
>the ~5 years of behavioral meta. We are both regular players here. Weve won together as town. Him, anak, and I had a glorious 6 months as scum together before i was eventually redirected to nightkilling myself to lose to an sk. I think hed confirm that scumtom is responsible for mislynching him more than anyone else. Ive also caught him day 1, but lolmicros.
>the last [however many games] since he started leveling up. In particular, ive been either scum or NKed early in ~most of them so have been watching it happen knowing his alignment. Hes become one of my very favorite players. I nominated him for most improved player for mtgs awards, and talked about him in an upcoming podcast. And Ive spent active time thinking about how it was going to play out when he finally rolled wolf in this new phase of his mafia playing.
It is hard to give shorthand to my meta here.
Obviously you can choose how much credence to give it. But i, with the [above experience], am telling you that KJ is scum by both of those sets of meta.
He has abandoned not only his new methodology, but the process by which hes applying it.
And in so doing regressing towards the more social game of scumKJ of old.
And also taunt kj and last for this:
Anyway.
Im pretty ok at mafia. Usually better at the charisma-based skills but ive also got decent WIS and INT
Most of my reads in most games are fairly squishy. I operate in ranges and percentage points.
Last two times i remember feeling this strongly:
hill house
Started pushing lngrr page 3. Got serious about it a few days later. Got him lynched d1. He flipped scum, i got NKed n1
OTG4
Started pushing cantrip page 6.
This isnt as recent but its a better example because it was a more similar meta-ish read, specifically one based on a metaphor about carson daly that was far more esoteric than what im giving everyone here..
Which is probably why i couldnt get him lynched and he NKed me n1 (town still won)
Last time i remember feeling this strongly and being wrong:
twinborn
I lynched townproph so hard.
Zion/ywfmf/jack/grape
NULLS*
Flarg
KJ
C. Lastwhisper
D. KittyCupCake
D. ZeDorkSlipeur
E. Rhand
E. Vaimes
Here's KJ's posts I do have comments about though.
#91 seems a little disingenuous, kinda fake. And he did this a couple of times like "let me solve" and later "there's no flips so I can't solve". So that's off.
#711 is weird. While I agree KCC is likely scum, it's like KJ doesn't want to push KCC for some reason. If KJ were more like Tom, there would have been a vote here and a bigger post about why KCC is scum, because it's a meta argument. Just find it really weird that KJ calls out KCC as scum here but we're not seeing a vote. I could speculate but maybe I'm over-analyzing this one.
#748 is a Vaimes aside, and I think what Vaimes is saying here is that a scumTom wouldn't make this play, involving the cellmates and going all in based on meta. Which I totally agree, it would be very reckless for scumTom to do this unless he's bussing, which he had virtually no reason to do so since I was such an easy target, and that would be pretty bad scum play. I don't think KJ picked up on this and instead summed up what Tom's attack is about. Odd.
#755 I feel like I've done this at scum, been really frustrated that there was no wall to even argue with. Just a bunch of stacked-up crap votes. But you know, it's pretty frustrating as town too. I don't think Tom is pretending not to know his case is flimsy, but the doubling down on meta arguments gives that impression. Could see it either way.
#810 Same as above. Trying to get some content to actually respond to but the wagon is so spontaneous it's hard to nail down why players are voting him.
814 is KJ's T/S list, very helpful. I actually agree with most of this, although my GJ and Tom would be higher and Vaimes, Rhand, Jack lower. Pretty much okay with a lynch on any of his bottom ranked (even though I'm reluctant on Tubba). I want to see more of this but that's going to be real difficult if we lynch him. Also, it would be too easy for scumKJ to scum read me here to get on the easytrain wagon and he doesn't.
#921 is a bit of a reach but not uncommon in Town of Salem and other mafia setups. I think he's trying to reconcile why Tom is going so hard and KJ is townreading Tom. It does explain things and it's possible, but not likely.
#957 is coming to terms with Tom probably being town. I feel like with a scumKJ this would have been more obvious sooner. This one is hard to see from a scumKJ mindset.
#969 More frustration with the situation. And he is right; he's doing solvey things. The T/S list is evidence of that. But again these votes kind of sprang up and there's not a lot to engage with. I get it.
#970 I don't like it, I could see it as scummy. But given the circumstances I just can't help but think he's Town.
#1013 I hate that he's relying on KCC meta and not more actively pursuing it as a lead. These are valid reads that I don't think he's following up on satisfactorily. But that could be because Tom is so relentless it's hard to concentrate on anything else.
So yeah. I can't vote him. There's not enough here compared to some other options like KCC, Grape. A couple of weird things that could be scummy but I seriously don't get his wagon beyond Tom's tunneling. And having myself be the next popular option, this is a losing proposition either way. We need a new wagon. I'd be good to vote either KCC or Grape.
Way too many unsorted here. Flarg is next after KJ? Tubba way too high? Wat? Not what I was expecting.
...wait. Why didn't anyone else make this more obvious? This game is weird.
I'm Sean Qestis. I was a restaurant manager before being convicted of arson. Just a plain ol' vanilla town. So you wouldn't be losing much if you need me to flip. I don't want to put KJ to claim either.
I'd say, if you're on my wagon, most of you are justified in being there. I haven't had the townvibes sometimes and there's absolutely a clash of meta going on. But it would be incredible to me if there wasn't scum there too, seeking opportunity but having no real reasons of their own. KCC for sure. Lastwhisper I could definitely see too.
Let me do a T/S before the lynch deadline even if you aren't sold because it could be valuable to the team.
Killjoy (5): Tubba Fett, Vaimes, Tomsloger, Gentleman Johnny, Grapefuit21
Grapefruit21 (1): Rhand
KittyCupCake (1): Zionite
Not Voting (2): ZeDorkSlipeur, Killjoy
one of the more egregious examples of "I am convinced X player is Scum and Y player is defending him so he must be Scum too" I've seen in a while lol
but yeah I disagree with this reads list a lot - tubba way too high, ter, grape too high, lw at null seems weird (i can see people going either way but he should be sortable)
I think it's well possible both KJ and Zionite are mafia.
I checked KJ in Seasons and especially his early game feels completely different here indeed.
The one problem with KJ is that I have a scumread on tom off his early posts.
Tom has the tendency to open wolf when he rolls mafia, and in his first post he calls himself "guilty". As a joking response to a mod post, but still, that is typical mafia!tom behaviour.
What also bothers me is that he talks exclusively about KJ. Town!tom doesn't tunnel-focus like that.
One thing that makes less sense in a scum!tom world is how hard he's fighting to get KJ lynched over Zionite.
If KJ flips town, that would put tom in an awful position toMorrow.
Possible worlds where tom is mafia:
mafia!tom is bussing mafia!KJ to protect mafia!Zionite because Zionite has a powerful role and tom wants to protect that AND get towncred for lynching KJ
mafia!tom is chainsawing onto town!KJ to protect mafia!Zionite
mafia!tom is bussing mafia!KJ while town!Zionite was going to get lynchedIf tom is town, then KJ is likely mafia.
The Zionite wagon seems very pure. If KJ is indeed mafia and Zionite is town, Zionite would be dead already.
So I believe that IF KJ is mafia, Zionite is mafia too.
Making Zionite the best lynch of the Day.
My T/S:
town
YMFMLF
Sloth
KCC
Lean town
Flarg
Jackrito
GJ
Null
Vaimes
Last
tubba
KJ
Lean scum
Grape
tom
ZDS
Scum
Zionite
vote Zionite
KCC: This is her town game. As mafia she takes control of the narrative. As town she sits back and observes and will only become a big voice after a few gameDays.
Grape: The main problem I have with him is that I don't agree with almost anything he says. It's as if we are reading different games.
ZDS: his Zionite read doesn't feel natural. He calls him LHF while in the same breath saying his KCC case wasn't good.
Removing Zion from L1
I swear I don't understand how you guys get to these conclusions
Tom locks in on KJ very early according to his cell mates, before there was pressure on Zion or anyone else really. I don’t see scum!Tom painting himself into that corner to eliminate town!KJ. Barring corner cases where Tom knows KJ has a powerful role or fears his town game, it doesn’t seem like a reasonable line of play.
Because we trust each other's instincts?
The Zion pressure started very early though.
And tom is tom... you never know what he would do as either alignment lol. He might be smug enough to believe he can get out of getting lynched after dunking a townie.
I do think the bus scenario is slightly more likely though, but only if tom believes KJ would get lynched anyways.
I will agree that I don't understand this play at the moment if this is in fact wolf!tom, unless he decided to roleplay as ladylambadelta
but even if I believe he is town, I have no reason to agree with his case on Killjoy
first of all, i think half-sorting the game day 1 is pretty good? Im sure i could give some leans to the nulls but i just dont feel strongly enough to bother before flips.
Realistically, its only the top and bottom tier im locked on and everything else is leans...
Flarg in orange via comparative around KJ. Of the people positioning themselves against my push, hes felt the least like hes trying to solve me over it.
Sloth is town because hes actively figuring me out over it and not even defending kj except that he has a scumread of his own that he believes in.
Terraine is just a skeptic. Looking at me to some degree. Not really looking at kj for herself which is eh but <message reaction test> persists and shes high on the list to reevaluate in unlikely event of kj town
Jack is opposed too but only theoretically and im really just gut town on him separate from it
Last has been more pro-kj than anti-my read. For ? reasons and i think i could easily have put him orange instead/in addition but i didnt because i think his play here only makes sense as scum if he has TMI kj is town.
So yeah kinda defaulted to sticking flarg there because of the lens in looking at the game through. Might be unfair if hes really just that unwilling to <something kind of rude here about playing suboptimally>
But i just dont get the vibe he cares about my or kjs alignments
The other person i actively considered making orange was Johnny
Idk why i didnt
Flarg and kcc feel most likely kj buddies still, but i find kcc just towny enough to leave her in null
Several people will hate this post
cause personally I think town!killjoy is hard to come by mislynch
and all I do is look like I am whiteknighting, since I not actively attacking your case analytically
question, how do you decide Killjoy is a null here?
B. Gentleman Johnny
C. Lastwhisper
D. KittyCupCake
D. ZeDorkSlipeur
E. Rhand
E. Vaimes
Johnny scummy. Just couldnt/cant commit
Last is "lean opposite alignment of kj"
KCC is "lean same alignment as kj"
Zds is well and truly null.
Rhand and vaimes are both just <dont have a foothold yet>. Both also people id rather not lynch day 1 on principal anyway so not too worried about it
~~~~~~~~~
If im right and kj is scum, im looking at flarg, kcc, maybe vaimes, fill in with gj/zds/rhand as needed
If i were to be confirmed wrong, scumreads would be last/gj with a big pile of people to reread through a different lens (my cellmates especially)
Sloth/tubba town either way. These are reads based on journeys, not destinations.