I think knowing who everyone would have voted for King is fairly useful information, even if it's hard to represent truthfully at this juncture. Like I was totally being serious that I would have voted Tom if I hadn't been slow on the uptake and missed the 3 day time limit due to reading everything too quickly, but he is TOTALLY justified in having the nagging doubt that I was trying to pocket him.
As for concern about me, yeah, I don't really have great analytics or any kind of real sense for this so I'm gonna be pretty wish-washy. The moment I figured out who the last wolf had to be, I was STILL super flip-floppy and uncertain lmao and my posts were WACKED out from it
god I can't wait for Vezok to take the shot. I guess I'm glad he waited this long, since Proph's big post is pretty informative. I think I might put Proph as a town-lean based on the post but I'm fully aware that I'm a ditz who just sees a big post and has the monkey-brain response of "wolf quiet, town loud" so that's a big ole grain of salt to take with that.
I dunno about the whole mason thing. Vezok probably didn't neeeeeeeeeeed to claim it, did they? I don't remember a big wagon forming on vezok. But once vezok claimed, it was kind of important for at least SOMEONE else to claim? Or else it would just be a matter of speculation. So, uh, glad grape claimed.
god I can't wait for Vezok to take the shot. I guess I'm glad he waited this long, since Proph's big post is pretty informative. I think I might put Proph as a town-lean based on the post but I'm fully aware that I'm a ditz who just sees a big post and has the monkey-brain response of "wolf quiet, town loud" so that's a big ole grain of salt to take with that.
see i see prophs wall as... about as quiet as possible for that many words?
god I can't wait for Vezok to take the shot. I guess I'm glad he waited this long, since Proph's big post is pretty informative. I think I might put Proph as a town-lean based on the post but I'm fully aware that I'm a ditz who just sees a big post and has the monkey-brain response of "wolf quiet, town loud" so that's a big ole grain of salt to take with that.
see i see prophs wall as... about as quiet as possible for that many words?
Eh how does that work? He is taking more Stamces than Keldeo in his reads posts. I like Proph’s catch up.
@Dkings: I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. Do you think Proph is scum because of his read on you?
god I can't wait for Vezok to take the shot. I guess I'm glad he waited this long, since Proph's big post is pretty informative. I think I might put Proph as a town-lean based on the post but I'm fully aware that I'm a ditz who just sees a big post and has the monkey-brain response of "wolf quiet, town loud" so that's a big ole grain of salt to take with that.
see i see prophs wall as... about as quiet as possible for that many words?
Eh how does that work? He is taking more Stamces than Keldeo in his reads posts. I like Proph’s catch up.
is he?
I see complete nonreads on me, fonti and essentially asta. Coming down to just claim essentially on vez/grape/axel/kcc, and reasonably lazy meta reads on last/silver/vaimes/dkings
Like yeah proph gave a read on almost everyone. But theres a lot of stuff sheeped from various people and a lot of hedging and im not gonna say any of that is really AI for proph but like
Meh its a prepared post its got a rainbow wall it should be a stance on everyone and it barely qualifies imo
Eh how does that work? He is taking more Stamces than Keldeo in his reads posts. I like Proph’s catch up.
I mean it was Crossbell catch up for sure, but that's a hard no from me
Keldeo and Cross are two different players, and Keldeo not taking stances doesnt make him that wolfy given how consistent he has been imo, with his questions and thoughts
Sorry folks, personal stuff is happening, hence my absence.
I'm here for now.
Keldeo: You asked about my view on Mind and my subsequent view on you IIRC.
Mind was just like... weird the whole game, not specifically townie, could be scum based solely on the self meta, disconnected postings. My issue with his wagon though was that the majority of it seemed to be focused on his lurkyness. I believe I basically said "he could be scum, but not yet" or something. Then I thought that Mind could be town because of wagon movements, which turned out to be a flawed logic when I realized I was approaching it assuming that the people moving back to him were scum, when town behaving that way makes just as much sense.
As far as you go, tonally you're fine, but my lack of experiance with you makes me hesitant to townread you on that front. The thing that buga me about you though (and this is the part that you not actually knowing my well will sound really weird), is that you were vibing my thoughts a bunch Yesterday, and... generally speaking, thoughts I have don't naturally occur in others very often. MAybe this is another one of those thoughts that is completely off base but. it's pretty much true? But even so, the rest of your play hasn't really made me think you're town. But not really the opposite either. Do you have links to any games I could look at, for comparison?
And you asked about why the King voting would be useful. It's kind of a reverse lynch. It's giving someone a daykill, effectively (misus protective interactions, etc). Obviously, people will have opinions on that that are relevent to thair alignments. Who they want, how hard they push, who they push away from. Since we elected Vezok so quickly, there's no pressure to tell the truth. There's no "how hard they pushed" or any of that. I don't think anyone even pushed for anyone else really, so there's not even that. We could have learned a lot from it, perhaps.
Hm. I just had a thought. Axel: I assume your ability was not redirected as you never said anything to that effect when KCC claimed to have targeted you. Is this correct?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Re: Killjoy, what do you mean he’s trying to apply lessons learned from previous games?
Killjoy has been on record saying that has been wanting to improve his mafia game (I think it was around Modern Mafia that this happened, though it may have been a bit earlier). IIRC he said something like this in the Modern Mafia spec chat:
Quote from Killjoy »
So I'm curious: what actually makes me scummy? I feel like Axel is right and it's a style thing.
Megiddo and KCC chimed in with some advice and that's the sense I'm getting from KJ this game. He's trying to apply lessons learned from his previous games in a way that I think doesn't manifest like the way it does in this game if he rolled a red alignment.
Quote from Keldeo »
Tell me more about Silver and Wisp, if you could? Your actual observations there seem kind of... tame compared to the magnitude of read you’re representing - “idk don’t really think he’d do this as mafia” and blue town. Is there something more to it that I’m missing?
They're somewhat tame because Silver and Last I think are more town for body of work stuff rather than a few specific posts, and I've been using my own personal (maybe outdated in the case of Silver?) meta for them. Can go into it a little more when I'm done with finals hell if you wish.
Quote from Keldeo »
What do you think of fulcrum’s towncase on Vaimes wrt both their alignments?
This is something I will get to after finals hell; will put it on the list.
Quote from Keldeo »
And overall, I’m just wondering - how much of these reads were things you had when you made that post about being caught up to the first 1000, and how much was developed/fully articulated or fleshed out between then and now? Or to put it another way, can you tell me about which reads shifted the most for you between those spots in catchup?
Around the first 1000 posts my reads were super consensus-y (for example I was side-eyeing Axel before I got to his watcher claim). It's hard for me to really answer this question because I'm super disorganized when I catch up.
Basically, the way I went through it was I opened up a Private Game Thread on MU and had it open the same time I was reading through the thread, and I just jotted down my instinctual thoughts every time I read through a post. Rinse and repeat every 500 posts, then I have a bunch of instinctual reactions that I clean up in order to make a developed reads list. So it's hard to really answer your question given that I didn't keep track of my reads in an organized way when I was reading through the thread.
Quote from Keldeo »
Also, what were you scumreading Grape for before you saw the claim?
This was somewhat due to the Slothful slot since I was used to him being a fairly analytical wallposter on DLP (not 100% sure, haven't played with him in years) and he didn't really show me that side of him in his posts here. Also thought Grape was scum when he was catching up because he didn't have the nuance I was looking for in catchup posts.
One question for you what do you make of Fulcrum hard defending Vaimes if you've reached that point yet?
Quote from fulcrum »
Hey Proph, what did you think of Fulcrum defending Vaimes?
Will get to this after finals.
Grape: Do you have any more nuanced comments about my catchup? Like do you agree with my reads, disagree, etc?
@Silvercrys
Quote from Silver »
@Proph did you see dkings claimed bodyguard when run up on D1? Do you think it's a fake claim/role?
IIRC we only stopped lynching him because he crumbed his role a little bit earlier D1? Think that dkings is adept at fake claiming as either alignment (I recall he bragged that he crumbed a PR to be shot as Vanilla Town in The Walking Dead Mafia - holy sh!t how do I remember this, my mafia memory is kind of wild). Not really opposed to lynching bodyguard claims and if I wasn't working on a large group project around EoD1 deadline I would have pushed for dkings's lynch.
Quote from Silver »
Though to be most precise, Proph is a member of the names at the end of the list, I just feel worst about him at the moment and he fits on ~every team.
Can respect that - this slot literally hasn't participated for 99% of the game, and I understand getting shot just so my alignment can be cleared up.
Will say that if people decide that they want to see me eat the noose Today I keep making noise for a week or two so I can feel good about my solve.
@Axelrod
Quote from Axelrod »
She basically was priced into using the Bus drive this way if she was scum, but your confirming its existence is ++
I am, however, somewhat concerned about the gifting of Orbs when the recipient is given no information about what they do/are for. That spins up a lot of possibilities for me a lot of which are sinister.
This is almost the same thing Rhand said about dkings, and it's still just as completely wrong. Why are you so wrong here? You modded that game!
Promise you it will make sense if/when I claim.
WRT dkings - Maybe I'm misremembering, but I literally called out dkings and Rhand as the two top performing townie in Modern D1:
There's also this post where he correctly called out Az and Grape as scum near the tail end of Day 1. I dunno; it's possible we have different perspectives on that game given you were a participant and I was a mod, so maybe I'm overrating dkings's towniness in that game, but he definitely had pretty banger reads Day 1.
OK, sure, you have a point WRT you not really being the person to badger your scumreads (forgive me; this is an area that Voxx and I disagree upon and I haven't played with you in forever).
I don't want my misgivings surrounding you to be based around meta analysis, but you can still see an active reads progression when it comes to your KJ read. You first started with "this doesn't add up" and then expanded further by highlighting issues with his recent posts that made you uneasy. In this game.. all I've got is:
- Starting the vezok wagon
- Doing some cursory wagon analysis on your own flash wagon
- More issues you did not like about vezok
- After vezok claimed, you switched to KCC
- ????
I guess one could argue that you had solid progression on your vezok scumread but your progression on KCC is just Not There. I don't know if that's because you've been busy with holiday season/unused to this style of playerbase, but what I want from you is something like this post in Modern Mafia where you have solid conviction behind your reads and I just haven't been seeing anything like that from your play this game.
But then take fonti.
Her CC of axel makes zero goddamn sense to me. And if she did believe it then her handling of axel since then makes no sense to me. So i cant super answer what scumfonti was doing there but like... compared to what
Tom, could you finish this thought? Or am I misunderstanding something here?
Also, what makes Axel top town to you - you said he felt alone a couple weeks ago, and I know you have a not w/w read with your SR fonti, is there something else?
The thing that buga me about you though (and this is the part that you not actually knowing my well will sound really weird), is that you were vibing my thoughts a bunch Yesterday, and... generally speaking, thoughts I have don't naturally occur in others very often. MAybe this is another one of those thoughts that is completely off base but. it's pretty much true? But even so, the rest of your play hasn't really made me think you're town. But not really the opposite either. Do you have links to any games I could look at, for comparison?
And you asked about why the King voting would be useful. It's kind of a reverse lynch. It's giving someone a daykill, effectively (misus protective interactions, etc). Obviously, people will have opinions on that that are relevent to thair alignments. Who they want, how hard they push, who they push away from. Since we elected Vezok so quickly, there's no pressure to tell the truth. There's no "how hard they pushed" or any of that. I don't think anyone even pushed for anyone else really, so there's not even that. We could have learned a lot from it, perhaps.
Alright, thanks.
Here are my most recent games, I linked a couple of these earlier: town, town (hydra but I made all the posts), mafia, mafia (in multiball)
Off the top of my head, the most prominent thing I agreed with you on was scumreading Axel for pushing on easy targets, and that's a read I make a lot (with varying success... you can see me applying it to Smiling Bodies, who was town, in the hydra game I linked.) Was there something else particularly that concerned you?
I get why having had king voting would be useful in the abstract - I was more asking what you made of the specific answers that people gave you to that question, since people gave some pretty disparate answers. If you don't think people would necessarily tell the truth after the fact, it makes sense that you might not get anything major from it, but then why ask it of people?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Also, kind of unrelated, but I gifted an orb to Axel last Night in order to confirm the busdrive and it swapped over to Nacho, so we know that KCC is telling the truth here about the busdrive.
Wait, how do you know Nacho got the orb? He didn't say anything about that.
And overall, I’m just wondering - how much of these reads were things you had when you made that post about being caught up to the first 1000, and how much was developed/fully articulated or fleshed out between then and now? Or to put it another way, can you tell me about which reads shifted the most for you between those spots in catchup?
Around the first 1000 posts my reads were super consensus-y (for example I was side-eyeing Axel before I got to his watcher claim). It's hard for me to really answer this question because I'm super disorganized when I catch up.
Basically, the way I went through it was I opened up a Private Game Thread on MU and had it open the same time I was reading through the thread, and I just jotted down my instinctual thoughts every time I read through a post. Rinse and repeat every 500 posts, then I have a bunch of instinctual reactions that I clean up in order to make a developed reads list. So it's hard to really answer your question given that I didn't keep track of my reads in an organized way when I was reading through the thread.
Okay. I'd appreciate you talking more about Silver/Wisp and answering KJ's question when you're able, yeah.
I asked this to try to get a better sense of your process/progression/genuineness so this is pretty much a non-answer for what I was going for. But if it's genuine I know you can't help that. oorgh.
This might be a weird request, but can you link me to a personal QT you've used as town that was in a similar style, if you have one? I couldn't find anything recent looking at DLP.
There's this idea that the mention of the private thread brings to mind, that boils down to mafia being less likely to fake unconventional methods of notetaking. But I guess it doesn't really apply here because the answer is like... more deliberate or centered around the medium, it's not really incidental.
Proph, I get that you're busy, but I'd really appreciate you jotting down some thoughts about me/Vaimes sooner rather than later. They don't have to be fully fleshed out.
Yeah I don't really want to read in to the way he was taking notes while catching up, it's a bit angleshooty lol
Kind of conflicted, feel like Proph's wall is somewhere between "okay" and "good", he's posting now so I don't really want to end the day early by killing him I guess
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@KCC The odds are very, very low of zero wolves on a 7 person wagon trying to lunch a villager. It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely. That's more than 1/3 of the players in the game voting for a villager.
If you think dkingsland is town now, and still think Killjoy/Asta/Vezok are, there's almost definitely a wolf in tom/last/Keldeo just by the numbers? 7 players of 15 alive, if there's not a wolf there I'll (again, metaphorically) eat a hat, especially if your town. And it's kind of weird that you're looking at two players on the dkingsland wagon to flip (Nacho/fulcrum).
But then take fonti.
Her CC of axel makes zero goddamn sense to me. And if she did believe it then her handling of axel since then makes no sense to me. So i cant super answer what scumfonti was doing there but like... compared to what
Tom, could you finish this thought? Or am I misunderstanding something here?
Also, what makes Axel top town to you - you said he felt alone a couple weeks ago, and I know you have a not w/w read with your SR fonti, is there something else?
thats a complete thought. Though possibly missing a (rhetorical) question mark.
Axel townread is something not super easy to explain. Its a bit positional, a bit just a vibe. But the sense of isolation was reinforced by the wagon on him, and frankly i think hes just generically towny anyway.
@Asta: Who would you shoot if you were in my place?
I'm not convinced in killing anyone of the top picks. I guess I don't really like how low laying Vaimes is right now and his role usage is kinda bad, but I'm not that convinced he is scum.
I'm talking myself into nacho and out of it almost every day.
@nacho: Who do you think is the scum on KCC's wagon? 2 picks please.
Also I had a weird dream last night where I shot killjoy and he flipped scum and everyone rejoiced and I can't stop thinking about how stupid that would be (I don't think kj is scum and I'm not gonna shoot him lol)
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I personally feel completely drained and have no desire to even open the game thread. I don't know what it is about this day but it makes me wish I were dead.
Kind of interesting how I feel better about the ones who want Keldeo dead. I don't super think both fulcrum and Silver are mafia, and honestly I have a lot of doubts about both of them being scum at all.
Sorry, Tom, could you reword or restate what you mean by “compared to what”? I’m probably just stuck on parsing it as an intro to “what town fonti would have done, blah blah blah” but I don’t understand.
Vaimes, do you want to kill me then?
Your vote’s on fulcrum but I get that’s probably outdated given what you’re saying. What do you think of her approach to you toDay?
Kind of. I like and appreciate the effort and engagement, and feel some sort of aversion to wanting to kill you, to be honet vOv
I think the scum strategy of "heavily defend Vaimes and hope to get towncred from it slash make him look bad when fulcrum flips mafia" is silly when she was already scumreading me before, this is more work on her part, and it doesn't really do anything for her own survival.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
So Keldeo and Vezok have both asked me for a shot and like. Yeah okay fine.
Nacho's weird dramatique performance YesterDay was aggravating but feels so over the top and dumb in a vacuum that I can't imagine any mafia letting him do it since they have Day Talk. At the very least, KCC and Nacho couldn't be same team.
Alright quick wagon analysis of KCC since she's been bounced around in the top slot a lot
Tom - Top town read based on non-mechanics, just feels the most solve-y
LastWhisper - Pretty high town read based on feeling; seems like they're genuinely trying to solve and not like they're just going down random side streets
That leaves KillJoy and Keldeo, who I have no strong reads on (just plain nothing has jumped out at me as clearly scum or clearly town, and likely nothing will until there's fewer than 10 people in this game), but by general consensus I would pick Keldeo over Killjoy for potential scum.
This, of course, assumes KCC is a townie getting mislynched but with some scum hopping on.
Shooting Nacho or KCC gets us information on that entire debacle and I feel like KCC is more likely scum out of the two, esp since I generally pinpoint about 5 of 7 of her wagon as being town and 2 as null.
Asta, love, looking at a single wagon in isolation won't get you far, unless you already know it's on scum or countering scum. Try looking at the way the wagons /changed/, who joined which wagon when, to see where scum might have used an opportunity to push away from their partners, or distance, or jump off a partner and onto a town. The events around the vote counts (i.e. whether someone claimed, or counterclaimed, how easily scum could excuse a vote on a town, or excuse themselves from voting on a partner) also matter. All of that will be more useful for you than looking at a single wagon out of context. Consider, also, that your two null reads on KCC could easily be scum. Or a townread of yours could be wrong. Or, maybe there were no scum run up around KCC's wagon yesterday, and she's town with all town on her.
Hm. I just had a thought. Axel: I assume your ability was not redirected as you never said anything to that effect when KCC claimed to have targeted you. Is this correct?
No, I was not re-directed.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
OK, sure, you have a point WRT you not really being the person to badger your scumreads (forgive me; this is an area that Voxx and I disagree upon and I haven't played with you in forever).
TBD. I was really confident Proph and I have discussed this exact subject before, but I thought it was in our TMNT mentor chat and I was wrong. I need to look through a couple other QTs and PMs when I have a chance.
I don't want my misgivings surrounding you to be based around meta analysis, but you can still see an active reads progression when it comes to your KJ read. You first started with "this doesn't add up" and then expanded further by highlighting issues with his recent posts that made you uneasy. In this game.. all I've got is:
- Starting the vezok wagon
- Doing some cursory wagon analysis on your own flash wagon
- More issues you did not like about vezok
- After vezok claimed, you switched to KCC
- ????
I guess one could argue that you had solid progression on your vezok scumread but your progression on KCC is just Not There. I don't know if that's because you've been busy with holiday season/unused to this style of playerbase, but what I want from you is something like this post in Modern Mafia where you have solid conviction behind your reads and I just haven't been seeing anything like that from your play this game.
You’re not wrong I guess, I don’t have a ton of conviction right now. This game has frustrated the ***** out of me. I don’t know this playerbase at all, and the general feel/style of this game is decidedly not MTGS-like so I’m wildly out of my comfort zone. I missed chunks of D1 and I’ve rarely been able to have real-time interactions with anyone because the game is much more active in evenings/overnight. The reads I have felt strongest about (other than vezok) are town reads, and 2 of my biggest scumreads have been effectively blown up by mason claims.
Nacho's weird dramatique performance YesterDay was aggravating but feels so over the top and dumb in a vacuum that I can't imagine any mafia letting him do it since they have Day Talk. At the very least, KCC and Nacho couldn't be same team.
I brought this theory up earlier when talking to Silver and the more I think about it the more it makes sense. If KCC is town, Nacho ran the CC gambit to try to get her lynched without his buddies needing to get on board, which probably also points to an inactive/lurker scum team.
I'm in the portion of the mafia game where I can't actively recall everyone's names and have trouble recalling what I think about a person's posting when I do see their avatar. It's a flaw! It will likely bite me!
I do what I have time for. Vezok asked my opinion on the shot-- wanted to give some kind of thought process instead of just blindly sheeping Tom and saying you. Feel free to analyze the wagon also! I'm likely tunneling on major events because I've needed to read things quickly and have therefore missed small details. Trying to generally avoid lynching lurkers, but. If we gotta we gotta. Lurkers are a blind spot for me, and honestly we might just need to lynch one or two to get movement swirling.
We only have the following info for certain:
Gemma was town
We have the following on claim, but it's basically iron-clad
Vezok is a mason
Grape is a mason
All other claims have to be proven. Yeah, I'm King and get two votes in Summer/Spring (that's been proven) but that doesn't prove I'm town. (I am town. I don't personally see Mafia as getting a King).
So yeah! Nacho, KCC, and Dkings are our three biggest potential sources of information. I'm actually gonna analyze DKing's wagon next because I'm fairly certain he's town because he's a bodyguard.
@DKings
Okay, yeah, that's a spicy take. My only problem is Nacho completely fizzled out his counter-claim when she stated what she had. If anything, it feels like he might have run the whole thing as a distraction to make KCC's wagon lose momentum? On the whole, it just doesn't make sense. (I'll totally acknowledge that it could have made sense to start with, Nacho, and we're just looking at it with the benefit of hindsight.)
Though. An inactive/lurky scum team does raise the notion that we should work towards pinning lurkers and making them more accountable. LW talked about it WAY THE **** BACK and I'd agree that avoiding lynching non-posters because they're not posting contributes to worse games. Not sure where to go based on that tbh but it's a trail I'm willing to pick up on.
You give us a top 2/3 of your choice, and let us make cases for which one you should shoot, rather than everyone just spinning their wheels or not really doing anything.
You give us a top 2/3 of your choice, and let us make cases for which one you should shoot, rather than everyone just spinning their wheels or not really doing anything.
You give us a top 2/3 of your choice, and let us make cases for which one you should shoot, rather than everyone just spinning their wheels or not really doing anything.
Well I wanted to see who the people wanted to dead, because my shot choices might be bad. I'm not that invested in the game and I can't really make sense of anything.
I'd like to shoot in nacho/keldeo/vaimes/kcc/fulcrum. I strongly prefer nacho with vaimes coming in second pretty closely and kcc in third. I kinda like what keldeo has been posting, but m1ndreaver left a sour taste in my mouth so I'm not completely opposed to that shot. I'm also of two minds on fulcrum so good arguments for or against could sway me here too.
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Sorry, Tom, could you reword or restate what you mean by “compared to what”? I’m probably just stuck on parsing it as an intro to “what town fonti would have done, blah blah blah” but I don’t understand.
"when i think about scumfontis motivation for the claim, i have no townfonti motivation to compare it to"
Kind of. I like and appreciate the effort and engagement, and feel some sort of aversion to wanting to kill you, to be honet vOv
I think the scum strategy of "heavily defend Vaimes and hope to get towncred from it slash make him look bad when fulcrum flips mafia" is silly when she was already scumreading me before, this is more work on her part, and it doesn't really do anything for her own survival.
I brought this theory up earlier when talking to Silver and the more I think about it the more it makes sense. If KCC is town, Nacho ran the CC gambit to try to get her lynched without his buddies needing to get on board, which probably also points to an inactive/lurker scum team.
in this world why does he retract the CC and defend her for an ~average reads posts?
You give us a top 2/3 of your choice, and let us make cases for which one you should shoot, rather than everyone just spinning their wheels or not really doing anything.
Well I wanted to see who the people wanted to dead, because my shot choices might be bad. I'm not that invested in the game and I can't really make sense of anything.
I'd like to shoot in nacho/keldeo/vaimes/kcc/fulcrum. I strongly prefer nacho with vaimes coming in second pretty closely and kcc in third. I kinda like what keldeo has been posting, but m1ndreaver left a sour taste in my mouth so I'm not completely opposed to that shot. I'm also of two minds on fulcrum so good arguments for or against could sway me here too.
i very much think proph should be an option.
Ill make a post about it soon™
I am moderately baffled by how scummily my play has been seen. I think the takeaway is that when I'm lazy/don't have time I'm really bad an anti-town.
I think knowing who everyone would have voted for King is fairly useful information, even if it's hard to represent truthfully at this juncture. Like I was totally being serious that I would have voted Tom if I hadn't been slow on the uptake and missed the 3 day time limit due to reading everything too quickly, but he is TOTALLY justified in having the nagging doubt that I was trying to pocket him.
As for concern about me, yeah, I don't really have great analytics or any kind of real sense for this so I'm gonna be pretty wish-washy. The moment I figured out who the last wolf had to be, I was STILL super flip-floppy and uncertain lmao and my posts were WACKED out from it
god I can't wait for Vezok to take the shot. I guess I'm glad he waited this long, since Proph's big post is pretty informative. I think I might put Proph as a town-lean based on the post but I'm fully aware that I'm a ditz who just sees a big post and has the monkey-brain response of "wolf quiet, town loud" so that's a big ole grain of salt to take with that.
I dunno about the whole mason thing. Vezok probably didn't neeeeeeeeeeed to claim it, did they? I don't remember a big wagon forming on vezok. But once vezok claimed, it was kind of important for at least SOMEONE else to claim? Or else it would just be a matter of speculation. So, uh, glad grape claimed.
Eh how does that work? He is taking more Stamces than Keldeo in his reads posts. I like Proph’s catch up.
@Dkings: I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. Do you think Proph is scum because of his read on you?
I see complete nonreads on me, fonti and essentially asta. Coming down to just claim essentially on vez/grape/axel/kcc, and reasonably lazy meta reads on last/silver/vaimes/dkings
Like yeah proph gave a read on almost everyone. But theres a lot of stuff sheeped from various people and a lot of hedging and im not gonna say any of that is really AI for proph but like
Meh its a prepared post its got a rainbow wall it should be a stance on everyone and it barely qualifies imo
I mean it was Crossbell catch up for sure, but that's a hard no from me
Keldeo and Cross are two different players, and Keldeo not taking stances doesnt make him that wolfy given how consistent he has been imo, with his questions and thoughts
I'm here for now.
Keldeo: You asked about my view on Mind and my subsequent view on you IIRC.
Mind was just like... weird the whole game, not specifically townie, could be scum based solely on the self meta, disconnected postings. My issue with his wagon though was that the majority of it seemed to be focused on his lurkyness. I believe I basically said "he could be scum, but not yet" or something. Then I thought that Mind could be town because of wagon movements, which turned out to be a flawed logic when I realized I was approaching it assuming that the people moving back to him were scum, when town behaving that way makes just as much sense.
As far as you go, tonally you're fine, but my lack of experiance with you makes me hesitant to townread you on that front. The thing that buga me about you though (and this is the part that you not actually knowing my well will sound really weird), is that you were vibing my thoughts a bunch Yesterday, and... generally speaking, thoughts I have don't naturally occur in others very often. MAybe this is another one of those thoughts that is completely off base but. it's pretty much true? But even so, the rest of your play hasn't really made me think you're town. But not really the opposite either. Do you have links to any games I could look at, for comparison?
And you asked about why the King voting would be useful. It's kind of a reverse lynch. It's giving someone a daykill, effectively (misus protective interactions, etc). Obviously, people will have opinions on that that are relevent to thair alignments. Who they want, how hard they push, who they push away from. Since we elected Vezok so quickly, there's no pressure to tell the truth. There's no "how hard they pushed" or any of that. I don't think anyone even pushed for anyone else really, so there's not even that. We could have learned a lot from it, perhaps.
Hm. I just had a thought.
Axel: I assume your ability was not redirected as you never said anything to that effect when KCC claimed to have targeted you. Is this correct?
Top shot choices:
Tom: fulcrum/keldeo/proph
Vezok: nacho/axel
Grape: dkings/proph/keldeo
Last: fulcrum/kcc
Axel: vaimes
Silver: keldeo/rhand
Kj: keldeo/silver/kcc
Rhand: nacho/vaimes
Dkings: kcc/nacho
Vaimes: fulcrum/nacho
Kcc: nacho/fulcrum
Proph: dkings/vaimes
Fulcrum: keldeo/rhand
Still hasnt stated scumreads?:
Keldeo
Nacho
Asta
Killjoy has been on record saying that has been wanting to improve his mafia game (I think it was around Modern Mafia that this happened, though it may have been a bit earlier). IIRC he said something like this in the Modern Mafia spec chat:
Megiddo and KCC chimed in with some advice and that's the sense I'm getting from KJ this game. He's trying to apply lessons learned from his previous games in a way that I think doesn't manifest like the way it does in this game if he rolled a red alignment.
They're somewhat tame because Silver and Last I think are more town for body of work stuff rather than a few specific posts, and I've been using my own personal (maybe outdated in the case of Silver?) meta for them. Can go into it a little more when I'm done with finals hell if you wish.
This is something I will get to after finals hell; will put it on the list.
Around the first 1000 posts my reads were super consensus-y (for example I was side-eyeing Axel before I got to his watcher claim). It's hard for me to really answer this question because I'm super disorganized when I catch up.
Basically, the way I went through it was I opened up a Private Game Thread on MU and had it open the same time I was reading through the thread, and I just jotted down my instinctual thoughts every time I read through a post. Rinse and repeat every 500 posts, then I have a bunch of instinctual reactions that I clean up in order to make a developed reads list. So it's hard to really answer your question given that I didn't keep track of my reads in an organized way when I was reading through the thread.
This was somewhat due to the Slothful slot since I was used to him being a fairly analytical wallposter on DLP (not 100% sure, haven't played with him in years) and he didn't really show me that side of him in his posts here. Also thought Grape was scum when he was catching up because he didn't have the nuance I was looking for in catchup posts.
Will get to this after finals.
Grape: Do you have any more nuanced comments about my catchup? Like do you agree with my reads, disagree, etc?
@Silvercrys
IIRC we only stopped lynching him because he crumbed his role a little bit earlier D1? Think that dkings is adept at fake claiming as either alignment (I recall he bragged that he crumbed a PR to be shot as Vanilla Town in The Walking Dead Mafia - holy sh!t how do I remember this, my mafia memory is kind of wild). Not really opposed to lynching bodyguard claims and if I wasn't working on a large group project around EoD1 deadline I would have pushed for dkings's lynch.
Can respect that - this slot literally hasn't participated for 99% of the game, and I understand getting shot just so my alignment can be cleared up.
Will say that if people decide that they want to see me eat the noose Today I keep making noise for a week or two so I can feel good about my solve.
@Axelrod
Promise you it will make sense if/when I claim.
WRT dkings - Maybe I'm misremembering, but I literally called out dkings and Rhand as the two top performing townie in Modern D1:
https://prnt.sc/qd0077
There's also this post where he correctly called out Az and Grape as scum near the tail end of Day 1. I dunno; it's possible we have different perspectives on that game given you were a participant and I was a mod, so maybe I'm overrating dkings's towniness in that game, but he definitely had pretty banger reads Day 1.
OK, sure, you have a point WRT you not really being the person to badger your scumreads (forgive me; this is an area that Voxx and I disagree upon and I haven't played with you in forever).
I don't want my misgivings surrounding you to be based around meta analysis, but you can still see an active reads progression when it comes to your KJ read. You first started with "this doesn't add up" and then expanded further by highlighting issues with his recent posts that made you uneasy. In this game.. all I've got is:
- Starting the vezok wagon
- Doing some cursory wagon analysis on your own flash wagon
- More issues you did not like about vezok
- After vezok claimed, you switched to KCC
- ????
I guess one could argue that you had solid progression on your vezok scumread but your progression on KCC is just Not There. I don't know if that's because you've been busy with holiday season/unused to this style of playerbase, but what I want from you is something like this post in Modern Mafia where you have solid conviction behind your reads and I just haven't been seeing anything like that from your play this game.
Tom, could you finish this thought? Or am I misunderstanding something here?
Also, what makes Axel top town to you - you said he felt alone a couple weeks ago, and I know you have a not w/w read with your SR fonti, is there something else?
Who do you think she should shoot?
Alright, thanks.
Here are my most recent games, I linked a couple of these earlier: town, town (hydra but I made all the posts), mafia, mafia (in multiball)
Off the top of my head, the most prominent thing I agreed with you on was scumreading Axel for pushing on easy targets, and that's a read I make a lot (with varying success... you can see me applying it to Smiling Bodies, who was town, in the hydra game I linked.) Was there something else particularly that concerned you?
I get why having had king voting would be useful in the abstract - I was more asking what you made of the specific answers that people gave you to that question, since people gave some pretty disparate answers. If you don't think people would necessarily tell the truth after the fact, it makes sense that you might not get anything major from it, but then why ask it of people?
Wait, how do you know Nacho got the orb? He didn't say anything about that.
Okay. I'd appreciate you talking more about Silver/Wisp and answering KJ's question when you're able, yeah.
I asked this to try to get a better sense of your process/progression/genuineness so this is pretty much a non-answer for what I was going for. But if it's genuine I know you can't help that. oorgh.
This might be a weird request, but can you link me to a personal QT you've used as town that was in a similar style, if you have one? I couldn't find anything recent looking at DLP.
There's this idea that the mention of the private thread brings to mind, that boils down to mafia being less likely to fake unconventional methods of notetaking. But I guess it doesn't really apply here because the answer is like... more deliberate or centered around the medium, it's not really incidental.
Kind of conflicted, feel like Proph's wall is somewhere between "okay" and "good", he's posting now so I don't really want to end the day early by killing him I guess
-------------
@KCC The odds are very, very low of zero wolves on a 7 person wagon trying to lunch a villager. It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely. That's more than 1/3 of the players in the game voting for a villager.
Here's your peak wagon:
Nachomamma8 (2): Rhand (#1988), KittyCupCake (#2065)
dkingsland967 (4): Grapefruit21 (#1489), Nachomamma8 (#1647), Silvercrys3467 (#2088), fulcrum (#2103)
KittyCupCake (8): dkingsland967 (#942), tomsloger (#1967), Killjoy (#1990), Asta x2 (#2016), vezokpiraka (#2128), Lastwhisper (#2143), Keldeo (#2147
Abstaining (1): Prophylaxis
If you think dkingsland is town now, and still think Killjoy/Asta/Vezok are, there's almost definitely a wolf in tom/last/Keldeo just by the numbers? 7 players of 15 alive, if there's not a wolf there I'll (again, metaphorically) eat a hat, especially if your town. And it's kind of weird that you're looking at two players on the dkingsland wagon to flip (Nacho/fulcrum).
Do you think your wagon here is clean?
Axel townread is something not super easy to explain. Its a bit positional, a bit just a vibe. But the sense of isolation was reinforced by the wagon on him, and frankly i think hes just generically towny anyway.
I'm not convinced in killing anyone of the top picks. I guess I don't really like how low laying Vaimes is right now and his role usage is kinda bad, but I'm not that convinced he is scum.
I'm talking myself into nacho and out of it almost every day.
@nacho: Who do you think is the scum on KCC's wagon? 2 picks please.
Also I had a weird dream last night where I shot killjoy and he flipped scum and everyone rejoiced and I can't stop thinking about how stupid that would be (I don't think kj is scum and I'm not gonna shoot him lol)
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Keldeo (5): tom, Grapefruit, Silvercrys, Killjoy, fulcrum
fulcrum (4): tom, Lastwhisper, Vaimes, KCC
KCC (3): Lastwhisper, Killjoy, dkingsland
Vaimes (3): Axelrod, Rhand, Proph
Proph (2): tom, Grapefruit
Dkingsland (2): Grapefruit, Proph
Rhand (2): Silvercrys, fulcrum
Axelrod (1): vezok
Silvercrys (1): Killjoy
Hum. Kind of interesting that so many people want Nacho dead.
Frankly its only stubbornness keeping me townreading him from the first half of d1
I know this can also be applied to me, but I already volunteered to die like four times, and yet.
Vaimes, do you want to kill me then?
Your vote’s on fulcrum but I get that’s probably outdated given what you’re saying. What do you think of her approach to you toDay?
I think the scum strategy of "heavily defend Vaimes and hope to get towncred from it slash make him look bad when fulcrum flips mafia" is silly when she was already scumreading me before, this is more work on her part, and it doesn't really do anything for her own survival.
I want them both dead and yet feel like they’re not aligned?
Meh :/
Nacho's weird dramatique performance YesterDay was aggravating but feels so over the top and dumb in a vacuum that I can't imagine any mafia letting him do it since they have Day Talk. At the very least, KCC and Nacho couldn't be same team.
Alright quick wagon analysis of KCC since she's been bounced around in the top slot a lot
KittyCupCake (8): dkingsland967 (#942), tomsloger (#1967), Killjoy (#1990), Asta x2 (#2016), vezokpiraka (#2128), Lastwhisper (#2143), Keldeo (#2147)
Out of the seven people on there
Asta - Me, I'm town, I know this
DKings - He's a bodyguard; Town
Vezok - Mason claim seems legit
Tom - Top town read based on non-mechanics, just feels the most solve-y
LastWhisper - Pretty high town read based on feeling; seems like they're genuinely trying to solve and not like they're just going down random side streets
That leaves KillJoy and Keldeo, who I have no strong reads on (just plain nothing has jumped out at me as clearly scum or clearly town, and likely nothing will until there's fewer than 10 people in this game), but by general consensus I would pick Keldeo over Killjoy for potential scum.
This, of course, assumes KCC is a townie getting mislynched but with some scum hopping on.
Shooting Nacho or KCC gets us information on that entire debacle and I feel like KCC is more likely scum out of the two, esp since I generally pinpoint about 5 of 7 of her wagon as being town and 2 as null.
TBD. I was really confident Proph and I have discussed this exact subject before, but I thought it was in our TMNT mentor chat and I was wrong. I need to look through a couple other QTs and PMs when I have a chance.
You're confusing KCC's claim. She claimed a bus drive, not a redirect. Bus drive swaps abilities that target two players.
You’re not wrong I guess, I don’t have a ton of conviction right now. This game has frustrated the ***** out of me. I don’t know this playerbase at all, and the general feel/style of this game is decidedly not MTGS-like so I’m wildly out of my comfort zone. I missed chunks of D1 and I’ve rarely been able to have real-time interactions with anyone because the game is much more active in evenings/overnight. The reads I have felt strongest about (other than vezok) are town reads, and 2 of my biggest scumreads have been effectively blown up by mason claims.
There's no way Axel and KCC are scum together with the way he was gunning for her on D1.
I brought this theory up earlier when talking to Silver and the more I think about it the more it makes sense. If KCC is town, Nacho ran the CC gambit to try to get her lynched without his buddies needing to get on board, which probably also points to an inactive/lurker scum team.
I'm in the portion of the mafia game where I can't actively recall everyone's names and have trouble recalling what I think about a person's posting when I do see their avatar. It's a flaw! It will likely bite me!
I do what I have time for. Vezok asked my opinion on the shot-- wanted to give some kind of thought process instead of just blindly sheeping Tom and saying you. Feel free to analyze the wagon also! I'm likely tunneling on major events because I've needed to read things quickly and have therefore missed small details. Trying to generally avoid lynching lurkers, but. If we gotta we gotta. Lurkers are a blind spot for me, and honestly we might just need to lynch one or two to get movement swirling.
We only have the following info for certain:
Gemma was town
We have the following on claim, but it's basically iron-clad
Vezok is a mason
Grape is a mason
All other claims have to be proven. Yeah, I'm King and get two votes in Summer/Spring (that's been proven) but that doesn't prove I'm town. (I am town. I don't personally see Mafia as getting a King).
So yeah! Nacho, KCC, and Dkings are our three biggest potential sources of information. I'm actually gonna analyze DKing's wagon next because I'm fairly certain he's town because he's a bodyguard.
@DKings
Okay, yeah, that's a spicy take. My only problem is Nacho completely fizzled out his counter-claim when she stated what she had. If anything, it feels like he might have run the whole thing as a distraction to make KCC's wagon lose momentum? On the whole, it just doesn't make sense. (I'll totally acknowledge that it could have made sense to start with, Nacho, and we're just looking at it with the benefit of hindsight.)
Though. An inactive/lurky scum team does raise the notion that we should work towards pinning lurkers and making them more accountable. LW talked about it WAY THE **** BACK and I'd agree that avoiding lynching non-posters because they're not posting contributes to worse games. Not sure where to go based on that tbh but it's a trail I'm willing to pick up on.
I kinda want to shoot nacho. The way she fired her shot after CCing KCC seems decidedly un-town. The flip would be good for information.
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You give us a top 2/3 of your choice, and let us make cases for which one you should shoot, rather than everyone just spinning their wheels or not really doing anything.
I'll vote for that.
Well I wanted to see who the people wanted to dead, because my shot choices might be bad. I'm not that invested in the game and I can't really make sense of anything.
I'd like to shoot in nacho/keldeo/vaimes/kcc/fulcrum. I strongly prefer nacho with vaimes coming in second pretty closely and kcc in third. I kinda like what keldeo has been posting, but m1ndreaver left a sour taste in my mouth so I'm not completely opposed to that shot. I'm also of two minds on fulcrum so good arguments for or against could sway me here too.
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(which is what that post was largely about)
Ill make a post about it soon™
It's more effort for no real gain, aside from maybe some "scum!fulcrum would never bother defending town!Vaimes" wine.