Vaimes, how much experience do you have with Axel?
Like, two or three games spread out over several years. Could be more that I don't remember. Don't think I've seen him as scum. Seems markedly different from a recent strong village performance he had.
Responses to previous questions people asked me at the tail end of D2:
@Killjoy:
Quote from Killjoy »
proph: What have you seen from me this game that fits my "trying to improve" thing?
Couple of things; think you've been a lot more aggressive with your votes this game as opposed to other games (you've pressured Axel/KCC/Rhand for most of Day 1) and you've been active with following up with people when they don't answer your questions.
@Keldeo
Quote from Keldeo »
Wait, how do you know Nacho got the orb? He didn't say anything about that.
Was explicitly told that I found myself gifting an orb to Nacho, when I targeted Axelrod on N2.
Quote from Keldeo »
This might be a weird request, but can you link me to a personal QT you've used as town that was in a similar style, if you have one? I couldn't find anything recent looking at DLP.
This is probably a good one? Not sure if 2666 Mafia is actually still viewable but replaced into similar circumstances as this game (replaced in the middle of Day 2, randed town, spent some time catching up and making a large wallpost)
Quote from Keldeo »
(was in a pretty tiring game that ended a couple days ago. If someone wants town sub meta from me, I can link it, but I never read the entire thread like I did here, so I don’t know how applicable it is.)
Can I get a link to this? Like to think I'm more adept at reading off-site games than other people.
Quote from Keldeo »
KCC and Proph: What did you do last night?
Tried to give dkings an Orange Orb, got roleblocked.
Quote from Keldeo »
Do you think scum would have a loud bodyguard though @Proph?
I think scum having a loud bodyguard would be kind of bastardly, so I don't believe that's the case. dkings is someone I am strongly scumreading due to behavior, though. Having him be confirmed as town would be surprising to me.
@fulcrum
Quote from fulcrum »
Proph, I get that you're busy, but I'd really appreciate you jotting down some thoughts about me/Vaimes sooner rather than later. They don't have to be fully fleshed out.
Alright, I read through it.
...Yeah, reading through your towncase is making me have some second thoughts about Vaimes being scum. The point about scum!Vaimes not even considering how his role would be used in a townie manner is insightful and something I didn't really consider. Your breakdown of the possible scum/town motivations and risks and rewards is also cogent.
I think I was reading too much into his macro-tells as opposed to looking at his micro-tells, which you've done here. However, here's the problem I'm having - in the world where (I suppose) you and Vaimes are both town, who are the mafia? tom just got iced. dkings apparently has mod confirmation that he is a bodyguard (which makes no sense to me). Are my reads really this rusty after a 1.5 year break from MTGS mafia?
Quote from Vaimes »
I personally feel completely drained and have no desire to even open the game thread. I don't know what it is about this day but it makes me wish I were dead.
Part of me feels like scum Vaimes would probably be too self-conscious to post something like this in the game thread if he was mafia.
Yeah, reading through most of Today, I guess Vaimes can be town. Definitely need to revise my reads then if that's the case.
Alright so let me just come clean about my role because there are a lot of questions about it and I'd like to get them answered in this one post.
I'm Prospero, Town Enchanter.
My spring ability is I can give someone a green orb at Night.
My summer ability is that I can give someone a yellow orb at Night.
My winter ability is that I can give someone a blue orb at Night.
My fall ability is that I can give someone a orange orb at Night.
In addition, X times per game during the Day, I can pick an orb and give it to another player during the Day once per Day.
If a player with a green orb targets a player with an green or orange orb, they are roleblocked.
If a player with a yellow orb targets a player with a yellow or orange orb, their ability name is told to the player that is targeted.
If a player with a blue orb targets a player with a blue or orange orb, that player is protected from the first nightkill to target them during that Night. Orange orbs have no effect but make the other orbs work.
Day 1 - shadow targets vezok with a blue orb.
Night 1 - I target Axel with a yellow orb. Gave my orb to Nacho instead.
Night 2 - I target dkings with a green orb. I was roleblocked.
OK, so, this is where I stand on things right now:
- I think Killjoy, Silver, Last, KCC, and Axelrod are behaviorally town. I still believe Axelrod's claim. Asta and Vaimes are lower tier town reads. Keldeo is someone who I need to reread and get a better feel for - he has a lot of nuance in his posts for sure, but I can't tell if that's something that specific to only town him or something he can generally fake as both alignments (hence why I'd like to get some meta).
- I find it bizarre that there are both masons, a double voter, and a bodyguard/Friendly Neighbor all in the same setup. I want dkings to come and confirm that his bodyguard is public, because I do not recall him mentioning that in his claim.
- KCC, I didn't mention anything about you because I assumed you were pulling a gambit and did not want me to question what you were doing.
- I want to go back to Nacho's reads now that's he's dead and flipped town. He was actively rereading before his death and I can trust his reads. To that, if dkings is indeed town, I want to reread and poke at Rhand/fulcrum with sticks. Rhand was a townread of mine earlier but Nacho raised good points in his last couple of posts, and he hasn't posted anything in the past couple of weeks that has made me feel good about him. One post I didn't really like was this:
Quote from Rhand »
I feel a lot worse about tom now for what Axel just pointed out. Tom loves open wolfing and that post about who his buddies would be is totally useless and fits perfectly in that meta.
I know it's easy to say this because tom flipped town, but shifting your read that strongly based off of a joke post tom made feels very disingenuous to me.
I think if there is any mafia on my wagon, it's fulcrum and even though she raised solid points with her Vaimes defense, she's the least townie out of most of the players in the game right now and if dkings is town then there are not a whole lot of people left that can be mafia.
I thought about something. If a wagon goes beyond 8 votes without me and grape on it, then it's probably a wagon on town. That means scum have to bus seriously or we can just exclude them in a pile of non-voters.
@proph: Do your orbs survive after your death?
I'm still debating if scum shadow would send me a protection orb just to mess with me or this is town shadow who simply read me correctly in a few posts.
So we still need to talk to decide on wagon, but if you are town, you're gonna have to vote on the biggest wagon regardless of your opinion of it. Otherwise we'll just lynch town.
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@Keldeo: how has your Vaimes read evolved since then?
Keldeo read finished. That was tough. I still don't like how he doesn't seem to take hard stances on anything.
Does anyone have experience with him? Is that his normal play style?
Fulcrum is probably just town.
There's the early interaction with Vezok which wasn't w/v, there's the irritation with tom (I don't think scum would show this level of irritation knowing tom is town. Scum would either not voice anything or try to get him lynched over it) and the irritation when I was wondering if he was counterclaiming KCC. And then the real counterclaim to Axel.
The only thing I don't understand is that she doesn't seem to believe her own counterclaim anymore, but I can't see a wolf motivation for dropping that either.
Last, I listed my PoE in my last post. Want to focus on solving Rhand/fulcrum/Keldeo/X I think.
What are your reads looking like?
vezok: Forgot to mention that. When I die, orbs start disappearing at a rate of two per season, with the most recent orbs disappearing first.
Rhand: Is there a reason why you aren't showing your thought process/reactions to posts when you're rereading? It makes it quite difficult to gauge your thought process (for example, I don't understand why you think Keldeo doesn't take hard stances on anything, he had some solid stances in post 2700 and is currently voting me)
The scum!KCC I just caught in the last micro was very aggressive and oozed agenda. I don’t see any of that here.
That early claim also doesn’t fit how I see her scum meta.
@Proph: that post is Keldeo explaining why he doesn’t take hard stances. He still waffles on everything.
If there’s anything post #300 has taught me for this game, it is that there’s no point in long explanations for my reads. It costs a lot of energy to write that all out and all it got me was flak.
If you want me to flesh out certain reads, then ask.
Meanwhile I reread Silver, and I keep going back and forth. I still feel like his initial scumread on me was typical town reading Rhand, but the way he keeps coming back to it irks me. He keeps writing me off as town and then putting me back in his scum pile.
I focused on solving the KCC wagon yesterDay a bit and you were kind of lumped into the pile of "people I'm not town reading who were off all the wagons and might be a wolf" but I've never thought you were town.
Specifically, I very much agree that Axel's post looks like it was written specifically for him to post in this thread, which completely negates any sort of claim of genuineness contained within.
It is possible that the post was written specifically with the thought that I might post it in the thread later. Like, that is not only possible, that is what happened. Same as the post I wrote for my N1 (or technically N2) action, which I didn't end up posting. It started as me just working through my thoughts on why I was doing what I was doing - because I tend to like explaining my choices to the Mod. when I submit them - but then I thought I might want to post them to the thread later as well.
Or, he posted it in scumchat when writing it and then asked DV if he could copypaste it to be safe.
So, yes, this is essentially exactly what I would have done if I was going to "fake" my thought process. I would absolutely have made sure it was permissible to do ahead of time, which is why you don't town-read me for the fact of posting it. Only potentially if you think the actual thought process is genuine.
Anyway, I do not have the mental energy to do anything but skim right now. I cannot process that claim of Prophs, except it looks very elaborate if it's fake, so, it's probably mostly true, but what that means for alignment is a huge *shrug atm.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I focused on solving the KCC wagon yesterDay a bit and you were kind of lumped into the pile of "people I'm not town reading who were off all the wagons and might be a wolf" but I've never thought you were town.
Okay, one time during D1 I said I wanted to kill Mindreaver over you and I kinda didn't think you were a wolf
That isn't this though:
"I still feel like his initial scumread on me was typical town reading Rhand, but the way he keeps coming back to it irks me. He keeps writing me off as town and then putting me back in his scum pile."
It happened one time like 2000 posts ago, it's not a pattern like you seem to be indicating
They're the least villagery players on the Axel wagon and if they're both town the team has to be like, tom and 3 people I'm town reading or something.
If I had to point to something on Last it's his Vaimes read, though.
He kept referring to Vaimes' meta as a reason for his wolf read but it never really felt like that meta read was anchored in things Vaimes has actually done in the thread. It felt like he was operating on someone else telling him that Vaimes was in his wolf meta and was just pushing him expecting other people to agree with him, I can't really explain it better than that.
My Rhand read hasn't really changed, his read on me wasn't as strong as I thought but it still felt like tmi to me and, well, here are the old posts:
I feel like there’s a lot to unpack within these last ~20 posts, but it’s midnight and I need to be up early.
I’m reading Nacho’s posts and I feel like I’m watching a roomba short-circuit. So far I don’t think he’s town.
Oh also I’ll be the first to say it: there’s totally a neutral in the game.
Is this a claim?
unvote
I like Silver.
Nacho feels like a copy of myself when I’m writing things that are good observations and then people scumread me for that.
Vaimes feels a bit less playful than usual.
It was me pre-empting unfounded scumreads on Nacho because I know how that feels.
Why are you spoilering an invitation to talk? Doesn’t feel very inviting.
But Rhand, secret invitations are the best!
Feel free to elaborate more on his observations? I don't really expect to agree with you based on past experience but I value the input all the same.
It’s not about the observations themselves but about how others perceive her as scum because they don’t follow the thought process behind her observations. Happens to me all the time. Silver is doing it now.
This is almost definitely influenced by the fact he's voting for me. But, it's scummish anyway.
Tom putting up a gimmick is totally NAI.
He’s very comprehensible in this one, which for me is a big relief. He’s had gimmicks where I couldn’t understand what he meant. His thoughts are clear here.
You do have experience playing with tom and his gimmicks, right?
Rhand: talk me through scum Axel. I think he's made like, less than 5 posts? I haven't seen anything really bad from him.
I’m not a fan of his semi-serious RVS vote. It’s a minor tell, but scum more often look for something tangible in rvs than town do.
I thought it was full on RVS, but he later said it wasn’t.
What bothers me more is his tom read. Calling tom’s gimmick scummy is opportunistic.
Wall incoming, but I think there’s enough info now to provide an early reads post.
Silver:
He’s having fun in RVS and his reaction to Shadow in #14 feels pure. I would be very surprised if that comes from scum!Silver because I don’t expect him to think about a post like that as scum and craft an answer when it’s totally not necessary.
His mixed feelings from Nacho pushing him are normal.
His vote on me seems to come out of nowhere, but when he explains it, he’s voting me for what town always mislynch me for when I get mislynched: my posts feel weird.
Verdict: town
Lastwhisper:
He starts his own sidegame instead of playing the game at first, and then calls Nacho wolfy for his reaction to KCC, which I think was a very pure reaction. Nacho gets more flak for that though; too much to all come from scum.
He doesn’t like tom’s gimmick, but his reaction to it is better than Axelrod’s: he merely says he’s not a fan of the gimmick and that tom doesn’t give him town vibes. Ergo, he’s not calling the gimmick itself scummy, which is good.
His response to Vaimes where he uses the word “probably” talking about his tells not being AI bugs me bigtime. It looks like he jokingly wants to get rid of Vaimes’ push.
His reads in #163 don’t look like real reads. He doesn’t give a real read on both Vaimes and Silver and waffles on Nacho. The only thing there is a townread on KJ.
A lot of scum!pings there, but his later posts are suddenly way better. I like how he questions Silver’s Rhand vote and how he starts real worldbuilding and pressuring Vezok.
Verdict: lean town (if he’s scum he won’t keep up his new posting)
Shadow:
Not enough posts for a read. Null.
I can read him very well though if he actually posts.
Vaimes:
He is in jokey spam-mode, which is a good sign. He knows his own meta though, and I’ve seen him make a whole town believe he’s town before.
There are a few things that trouble me: He voted Nacho, who was low hanging fruit at that point. He claims the existence of a neutral. And the things he’s accusing LW of are dependent of the alignment of the ones LW is interacting with.
I do like that he goes from Nacho to Axel now.
Verdict: Not sure. I’m going to classify him as null for now and will see where he goes with his Axel vote.
@Vaimes: talk more about Axel please. And what is your LW read right now?
KCC:
Claiming a scummy role from the get-go is the townie thing to do. Scum doesn’t like locking themselves into a claim from the start. I know a few players that do things like that, but KCC doesn’t strike me as one of those, unless she is consciously changing up her game. Which is totally unnecessary because she hasn’t played that many games recently that we all know her meta.
I like her Nacho reaction and have a total mindmeld with her question to Vaimes in #200
Verdict: town
Vezok:
Again a Nacho voter. The fact that she says he agrees with Vaimes on Nacho probably means that she isn’t scum with Vaimes. Saying later on that Nacho is scum because her posts don’t make sense points to a scummy mindset: not making sense is not a scumtell but something scum looks for when trying to get town lynched (I know that all too well). Also not a fan of the randomness of people she gives reads on.
Her vote on Mind is weak and using omgus as extra confidence is again a scummy mindset: omgus in itself is never a tell but often used by scum during fake hunting.
There’s a possible link with Fulcrum because of the way she defends her.
Verdict: scum
@Vezok: you said you gave a (non)read on LW because of the recent scumgame with him. I was also scum there. Why not give a read on me there?
Dkings:
No posts. Null.
Mindreaver:
I like his self-meta because it’s true. And if he does this as scum after a hiatus, that would be extremely dumb because now he has to keep up his energy level.
I mindmeld with him about Nacho and Vezok.
Verdict: town
Axelrod:
The fact that he chose a semi-serious RVS target is bothersome. What is worse is that he uses KCC’s later posts to strengthen that vote. And then he calls tom’s gimmick in itself scummy.
Verdict: scum
KillJoy:
He’s very easy to read as town, and this is town!him.
I wonder if he can mimick his towngame as scum. I haven’t seen him as scum in a loooong time. But I doubt he can. His towngame is extremely pure.
Verdict: town
Tom:
He is throwing out reads all the time, and with the songs he has to really think about them. All his reads are pretty much fleshed out. I know tom is capable of a lot as scum, but this would be too amazing to be true. I’m convinced this is town!tom.
He reminds me of that game where used animal behavior to talk about all of us, which also gave deep insight.
Verdict: town
Slothful:
Some of his questions feel like stating the obvious, but others seem like he’s trying to figure out the game. Not enough there for a read.
Verdict: null
Gemma:
Not a lot of explanation in her posts, but I liked all the votes she cast when she cast them (apart from the brief tom vote).
When she does post longer sentences, I tend to mindmeld with her (Vezok, the tom gimmick).
Verdict: town
Nacho:
I think the reaction she gave to KCC could come from either alignment, with a bigger chance of coming from town. Scum demanding claims on page 1 is pretty darn dumb, and Nacho isn’t dumb.
I like where her vote is right now.
I don’t like the mindreaver vote and the continued KCC pressure.
Verdict: lean town
Fulcrum:
Her first post feels like she distances herself from town a bit with how she talks about tom. Probably NAI though because she hasn’t been active on the site for a while.
I like how she wants Nacho to stop about KCC, which is indeed a needless distraction in thread by now.
Not much more there yet. I’ll need more to form a read.
Verdict: null
Asta:
Nothing really there. It bothers me that she did read the game when she posted #293 and didn’t comment on anything apart from answering a question directed at her.
Can be newb scum that doesn’t really know how to play scum.
Verdict: lean scum
Town
Silver
KCC
Mindreaver
KJ
Tom
Gemma
Lean town
LW
Nacho
Null
Shadow
Vaimes
Dkings
Slothful
fulcrum
Lean scum
Asta
Scum
Vezok
Axelrod
There almost has to be scum in the non-posters. Unless I’m wrong about one of my townclears, but this looks like a good base to start off with.
About KCC: maybe I phrased it wrong. It should’ve been “a” townie thing to do instead of “the” townie thing to do. Not claiming anything is also townie.
It takes a certain personality type to prepare your claim as mafia on D1. LW, shadow, tom are some people here that I could see doing that. I haven’t seen KCC’s scum game for a long time, but I do know she plays the persons game over the mechanics game. She wouldn’t play the mechanics from D1 as either alignment. Which is exactly what preparing a claim is.
Most scum fakeclaim. They don’t go around preparing us for their scummy role D1.
KCC does tend to get ran up and she knows it. So her thinking about what would happen if she does and her having to claim that role then is perfectly normal.
Was there an answer KCC could’ve given you that would have triggered you to remove your vote?
Refusing to answer questions feels bad no matter the alignment. Unless it's a joke question, answers are always going to help town, so I side-eye folks who outright ignore questions. It's why I actually went ahead and answered some questions about me or what have you even though I was still 3 pages behind.
-snip-
Kind of not bothered by early scumreads of me because I know I haven't been active. Trying to fix that today and maybe throw out some questions.
This explains the post I was bothered by. Asta back to null, maybe even lean town.
I like fulcrum more and more. I don't know why she'd try to provide so many reasonable propositions for why I acted the way I did if she was scum.
KCC voting fulcrum feels ???? I don't feel like that post is smearing tom. Fulcrum is asking a question to another person and not really attacking tom. I also agree that tom's gimmick makes his post unreadable. I skipped all of them simply because I have no idea what he is trying to say in them. I only read the bolded parts. Don't feel like tom's scum though. He does these gimmicks all the time and drops them when stuff becomes serious.
Vezok likes defending Fulcrum a lot.
And then this answer by Fulcrum:
I like fulcrum more and more. I don't know why she'd try to provide so many reasonable propositions for why I acted the way I did if she was scum.
Uhh,I could have been trying to pocket you? Have you never been pocketed?
I can definitely see them aligned.
With that pocket remark, Fulcrum being scum without Vezok being a buddy would be very strange. Why would scum ever confess pocketing to town?
Axel’s #364 makes me think we just have very opposing views on mafia. I’m still bothered by his semi-RVS and gimmick handling, but I’m going to wait and see.
My early reads are often good though. I’m conflicted.
I do know he becomes very strong later in the game if he’s town, so lynching him now on what is mainly a gutread is probably a bad idea. unvote
I'm seeing Tom saying that Nacho seems anxious, since that's word that kept popping up in the rap. Or maybe he's calling Nacho paranoid, and that's towny, because of the "Sometimes I let my demons get ahold me,"
, +I'm a little manic, I just wanna see your big smile
If you ain't ecstatic I feel like I blew it big time
If I got so many wrong, then Fulcrum is right and tom isn't as clear as I thought he was.
Anyways, his reads are bolded. Even though his reasoning isn’t always as clear, we know his worldview.
Your read strength on Silver seems a bit overblown for the reasoning that you gave - I also townread smooth responses, but a little bit of banter in the very beginning of the game isn't enough for a full blown townread... is it? What do you think of his Asta suspicion based on them holding back on the RVS vote? What do you think of his M1ndreaver read?
I was suspicious of Asta too. I don’t agree with his mindreaver read, but since he has me as scum, seeing someone mindmeld with me must feel suspicious, so
My main reason for the townread is the combination of him answering like that to Shadow in RVS and more importantly him scumreading me for my “weird” posting.
People not understanding my thought process is why I get mislynched all the time, and the first one to go there is usually town: scum latch on to town afterwards.
Quote from Nacho »
What do you mean by saying that "Nacho gets more flak for that reaction" in your read on LW? One thing that I liked from LW re: talking about tom's gimmick is attacking it and then saying that he didn't like the way that either Axel or Sloth did it. The entire reason why I think scum might attack tom's gimmick is because it's an easy hit and also hard to argue with (it is almost irrefutably anti-town, after all), but LW attacking the others who did so means that he ends up alienating himself from the allies that he would have but he's still attacking it so he risks drawing the ire of TeamTom(tm) as well.
That I wanted to scumread LW for attacking you, but he isn’t the only one, so the attack in itself becomes NAI unless the whole scumteam decides to jump on you there.
Do you agree LW is probably town? Attacking both sides would be pretty bad scum play.
Quote from Nacho »
Wrt Vaimes read, I don't think his early attack on me was an attack on low-hanging fruit - we've played together enough where even if I come out of the gate a bit awkward I really don't think that translates to him thinking he can get me lynched if scum.
ok
Quote from Nacho »
Why is Axel choosing a semi-serious RVS target bothersome? Why is him confirming his initial read based on KCC's posts bad?
Scum can feel awkward placing RVS votes and often look for sort of a reason behind them. Town hardly ever goes there and just has fun with the votes.
Confirming his “read” later on is staying in the safe zone of pushing the RVS vote so he doesn’t have to move it to someone else.
Rhand's post didn't really move the needle for me, no. It's a good post but it doesn't really resolve the weirdness, I'll have to iso him later toDay and try to explain what it is... but I think it's more natural for him to try to win me over than OMGUS me especially after Eurovision lol, and the rest of the reads are like... reasonable but nothing that I really think he wouldn't/couldn't make as a wolf.
Welp, there’s no way I’m getting caught up anywhere close to soon. I’m in disaster recovering mode at work since Friday, and on call perpetually, so I’m not even gonna try, since it’s either get sleep or backread 250 posts; someone give me the quick and dirty or what’s gone down since around post 100, with some color commentary. Most entertaining/useful answer gets something special
It's day 1. You missed almost nothing. KCC claimed a scummy role and nacho tried some rolefishing to get to claim. KCC refused.
Otherwise it's just people bickering about unimportant stuff.
This post… 398 posts in the game and you think there’s nothing?
Rhand has too many townreads. Rhand: Talk to me about Axel a bit. Why is his attitude towards tom's gimmick scummy?
Why is Asta scum?
Also talk to me about Axel's 308 as well.
I think I covered all of that already in this post.
Too many townreads though? It is an early reads post, so some of them will probably still change. But finding town is a big part of solving the game, and I am better at that early game than later on when there's real fights going on.
I did just solve Watchmen Wanted on page 2 by correctly identifying all the town. You should know that… you were one of them?
If you mean 300, I don't find that kind of post very easy to read into personally. The physical experience I get when reading it is that Rhand is slowly pouring a pot full of cold soup over my head to the tune of Peralta's "singing voice". The narration of events is indistinguishable from what I think? is meant to be analysis? and it all just ends up as noise. It's also confusing when people just say "town" or "scum" with no degree of confidence (y'all seem to do that a lot here), my reads are always mapped to a scale of 0-100 and I don't know how I'm supposed to pretend to understand what "town" means for other people with no other information. Sorry that's probably not a very satisfactory answer.
I was hoping my degree of confidence is clear in what I wrote about them?
My main reasons of making posts like this is to show my worldview to the world and to have a post to look back to myself later on because my early reads are often better than the later ones where I’ve been influenced.
I think some time away will probably do me good, anyways - did get the chance to read KCC's recent scumgame (Watchmen, like 7 pages long or I wouldn't have bothered) and most of her posting seemed very agenda-driven, she talked about being a bit nervous at the onset... Doesn't strike me as the type to launch a gambit like the "scummy role" bit...?
But that's just giving me more townreads which genuinely makes me want to kick something.
I’m amazed at how our thinking process works the same way. As well as the amazing ability of formulating stuff in such a way that people vote us for it.
Nacho is floundering and voting in random places. I'm waiting for Nacho to find his feet and make a push he believes in. By helping him push in things he's ambivalent about, I'm helping that process along. Vaimes is along for the ride because he knows how delicious a good wagon is. Haven't liked anything dk's done, no opposition to voting him.
Is that town!Vaimes? Would scum!Vaimes fake this to get on your good side?
It bothers me that I don’t have a read on Dkings/Fulcrum/Shadow at all now that they’ve started posting. Especially Shadow. I’m generally good at reading him and he’s just not pinging me in any direction. Last game I played with Dkings he radiated town to the point he got Daykilled by scum and I’m not getting that here either.
Slothful seems to have disappeared.
Sorry about my walls. In a game this size it's either that or multi-posting :/
His read on me feels realllly soft and he puts me at the top of his list under actual town reads which feels a lot like TMI, and there's a lot of like, glowing praise of and defense for Nacho that also feels like it might be TMI in town!Nacho worlds (which is currently where I'm living).
His tom read where he's like "tom's posts are super clear" and then tom says he's wrong about a lot of them and then he goes "well he's making his conclusions clear at least" (implying the actual reasoning doesn't matter that much) doesn't really feel like an honest re-evaluation of his tom read given new information.
Most of his other reads are like, fine, but his overall progression is a bit strange and seems more like he's trying to position himself a certain way than solve.
@Silver's Rhand Read:
I don't think that Rhand's approach to me or tom is particularly scum. I do agree that he saw himself a bit too strongly in both of us, but the way he did so seemed genuine. If he were scum, I think there'd be a clearer agenda behind it, but it doesn't seem like he was trying to buddy either of us (no fake mindmelding), and neither of us at the time were popular townreads who also hadn't been under fire at that point, so don't really understand what he was trying to accomplish there as scum. What do you mean when you call his read on you "soft"?
It felt like there wasn't enough evidence/process behind the read he was representing. I'm not really sure how to explain it just didn't feel very fleshed out.
Your read on me felt natural at first, but your reassessment of it afterwards feels kind of fake because in the end you didn’t really ever reassess?
I still think you’re more likely town than scum, but this bugs me.
I mean, "I kind of don't think he's a wolf" isn't really a town read though?
You were still in my PoE I just wasn't confident you would flip red, and then Keldeo asked why you're wolfy and I said "it isn't as bad as I thought at first but this was my original read, it's kind of still where I'm at"
It's fine if that bugs you or whatever but it feels like you overstated there being pattern of this because you saw other people doubting my alignment and are trying to turn me into a mislunch now
@Proph: Here is my ISO in the recent game I was talking about. It was a hydra game, but I signed all my posts. If you're looking for a more representative sample of my meta, I linked some more games in this post.
Can you go more into what from toDay changed Vaimes to a town read for you? I know you talked about it a little bit but I'd like you to elaborate a bit more.
Alright so let me just come clean about my role because there are a lot of questions about it and I'd like to get them answered in this one post.
I'm Prospero, Town Enchanter.
My spring ability is I can give someone a green orb at Night.
My summer ability is that I can give someone a yellow orb at Night.
My winter ability is that I can give someone a blue orb at Night.
My fall ability is that I can give someone a orange orb at Night.
In addition, X times per game during the Day, I can pick an orb and give it to another player during the Day once per Day.
If a player with a green orb targets a player with an green or orange orb, they are roleblocked.
If a player with a yellow orb targets a player with a yellow or orange orb, their ability name is told to the player that is targeted.
If a player with a blue orb targets a player with a blue or orange orb, that player is protected from the first nightkill to target them during that Night. Orange orbs have no effect but make the other orbs work.
Day 1 - shadow targets vezok with a blue orb.
Night 1 - I target Axel with a yellow orb. Gave my orb to Nacho instead.
Night 2 - I target dkings with a green orb. I was roleblocked.
Okay I am obsessed with this role. It's so complicated and finicky. It seems to crazy to be fake but it also isn't passing the sniff test of feeling real to me. I've been trying to sort it out in my head and it just doesn't seem to fit to me. Between the claims of DK, Tom, and KCC I just don't see space for it as claimed. But we know there is a grain of truth because all 3 have some level of public confirmation.
Asta is confirming DK's protection.
Proph confirms KCC's RB.
And Proph's gift is confirmed.
The whole thing is fishy but I can't figure out what isn't fitting.
Since this seems pretty split, and we've got less than a week before the deadline and need 10 votes to lynch, I wanted to see who even would be possible to lynch toDay. I was going to ask people for their POEs/bottom tiers, like tom did, but I think enough was posted to figure it out -
Grapefruit: not [Asta, KJ, KCC?, Silver?, Last?] Not entirely sure where he's going today, but I will assume he will vote with vezok
Keldeo: idk, Proph/KCC/fulcrum/Vaimes/Rhand I guess? I haven't sat down and done work for this game for a while, I feel like some of my reads need updating.
fulcrum: Proph, others? If I assume she has the same POE as yesterday, it'd be Rhand/Keldeo, Axel/KCC/Proph/dkings
Axel: Hasn't posted an explicit POE, seems suspecting Vaimes?
If we leave Axel and dkings' votes out for now, we have a max of 13 votes. So, if each person "votes" for everyone they seem to be okay with lynching / are not townreading, the viable wagons are:
Keldeo (12): Everyone but me
Proph (12): Everyone but him
Rhand (11): Everyone but him and KCC
Possibly viable wagons given compromise from people not on them, or added votes from Axel/dkings:
KCC (8*): Killjoy, Silver, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, Keldeo, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok,
Axel (7*): Killjoy, Rhand, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok
So, to be actually productive, I think that people who are not voting me/Rhand/Proph right now should move onto one of us, and/or make a case for why someone besides these people should be a wagon today.
--
I'm puzzled that no one seems to be, like, hard defending any of these three "viable wagons." There are just people who would prefer other people in their POE, or would only vote us to compromise. This is probably expected, because if more than ~3 people were strongly defending someone, they wouldn't be a viable wagon in the first place. But if there are mafia in the top three there, why are they being bussed? It seems pretty subpar to bus today, given that mafia would need to convince even fewer town than usual in order to not get a mafia lynched - if there are mafia bussing today, I'd think it's probably a result of carrying over reads from a previous day to be consistent...? If there are not mafia, where is it that the townreads of [the thread/people/me] are wrong right now?
--
I also think, from a setup gaming perspective, that the 10 to lynch today might point to Asta being town. If he were mafia, it would be nearly impossible to lynch mafia today, and that just seems like a rough thing for town - especially if the increase in the number required to lynch is also from a mafia role. And given that no one's claimed it, I'd guess it's more likely that it's a result of a mafia action.
(Alternatively, it could be from (1) the role of someone who's dead (which could only be Gemma, I think) or who can't claim it for whatever reason; (2) Wisp's "dreams of prophecy," but I don't think he is faking not knowing what it does, or faking his frustration at the number of people needed to lynch, and besides, I don't think he is w/w with Asta; or (3) something weird I haven't thought of.)
Rhand: Given that KCC moved from a potential scum to Nacho with you, who is now confirmed town, does that affect your townread on her?
Last: You said 'interesting catch' about how Grape and vezok don't seem to agree on silver. Why must they? Why is that a 'catch'?
Also, why is Proph the best lynch right now? Because of his push on DK?
Keldeo: It's not that you should have wanted a lynch, nor that there's a mechanical reason for a no lynch. The problem is that you unvoted one of my scumreads for poor reasons. You backed off that wagon for bad reasons.
I will say it tempers it a bit knowing the mechanical benefit being widely known at that point. It makes your indecisiveness/ lean toward no lynching not AS bad. But, in general, scum prefer no lynching to lynching because it gives town less info and gives scum more control. So, for that reason plus the reason above, if KCC is scum, you might also be scum. But given the new info, you aren't (as?) independently scummy.
But, as such. Unvote.
Vaimes: Can you talk to me about why Axel is scum? Give me a paragraph? Is 3200 all of it?
Hmmm. I think I wanna Vote Rhand.
Proph: Aggressiveness and followup is what town!me looks like, huh? You have nothing more... specific?
If a player with a green orb targets a player with an green or orange orb, they are roleblocked.
Who is 'they'? The player doing the targetting, or the player being targeted?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Proph: that post is Keldeo explaining why he doesn’t take hard stances. He still waffles on everything.
OK sure, I can see that he expresses some uncertainty in his reads in 2963/3110. Do you think his uncertainty/verboseness is indicative of a mafia mindset, though? I haven't played with Keldeo before but it seems more stylistic than anything else.
Quote from Rhand »
If there’s anything post #300 has taught me for this game, it is that there’s no point in long explanations for my reads. It costs a lot of energy to write that all out and all it got me was flak.
Hey, I liked your reads list at the time when I was catching up!
Can you talk to me about your Vaimes read? I looked back on your ISO I don't find much reasoning for you wanting to lynch him outside of you saying that you don't believe that your role and his role can coexist, and that he's "shut down and isn't helping progress at all".
Yo @Wisp, talk to me about how your reads look like right now? Would like to sync up with you sometime Today.
Keldeo: Thanks, I'll take a look at those when I get the time.
Vaimes isn't a strong town read, but I actually sat down and took the time to read fulcrum's towncase on him and it made a lot of sense to me. Also think that some of the things he's posted lately are a little too on-the-nose for him to post as scum.
Quote from Vaimes »
I personally feel completely drained and have no desire to even open the game thread. I don't know what it is about this day but it makes me wish I were dead.
This is a sentiment IMO that town Vaimes would probably just post and not care about how he is perceived, but something that scum Vaimes would probably think about internally but not post in thread, if that makes sense.
Also I agree with you in that wagons should be consolidated on me/Rhand/you atm.
Grapefruit: Not sure what I can tell you, it's my role.
Also I disagree with you about looking at Wisp. Think that dreaming god is designed to have positive and negative effects for the town, and evaluating his alignment based on how scummy or townie his dreaming god abilities are is kind of loose.
Killjoy: I mean, considering that you either didn't vote or voted only one person for the entire Day in previous town games of yours, I'd say yes? Think you've improved a lot in the past four/five months or so.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Finally back from holiday travel/family time/catch-up work and ready to play Mafia again. I need to do some re-reading and fully examine D3, but two quick things from skimming the day:
1) @Asta
I *AM* protecting you, but there is definitely nothing in my role PM about mod confirmation of my ability. I just double-checked to make sure I didn't miss it. Is this a specific Oberon/Titania interaction? Can you provide some more clarify on what you were told?
2) Regarding Axelrod's PM/post/quote/thing
I'm wary. This reminds me of something one of my scumbuddies did in Big Red Button (I think it was DV) where he posted a rant in the thread from one of the lynch QTs. It was super fake and scummy and I couldn't believe he didn't get run up for it.
the ones left are:
Past, revenge, friendship
Night 0 was tranquility
Night 1 was leadership
Night 2 was prophecy
@grape
I mean there isn't much I can do to quell that thought, I wish I could confirm what my abilities do but I can't, king maker is the only one that really matches
Still stand by my statement that DK/Asta are always the same alignment
@Grape
You can either assume mafia chose to not use their kp n1, or someone stopped it, I wanna believe it was me, but there are some inconsistences with Gemma dying so idk
@Killjoy
its exactly what Silver said, if I have a mason chat, I am not going to talk like I am a solo player, given we are both actively given our thoughts in the chat, which again Grape/Vezok have widely different lives and timezones which hinders their ability to interact which is fair, so ya
but like if I have a partner may it be a mason or another hydra or anything of the sorts, I always keep my partners thoughts in the back of my mind when I post my thoughts, and read our chat, so I understand where Silver is coming from when he pointed out that they don't seem to act like masons
@Keldeo
dont see how Asta is townier because he is the counter to a mechanic we know nothing about
@Proph
my reads have been shifted throughout this day phase because of evberyone elses thoughts, I really dont know where I stand, which is why instead of given full on reads, which requires me to reread, I have sorta been building teams based on what I believe and what others believe as the day goes on and new thoughts come up
Like I am quite certain that even given my paranioa Grape/Vezok are town, DK/Asta are of the same alignment, that Killjoy is town, I eventually want to do a deep dive of the thread, but idk when that is happening
@Grape
You can either assume mafia chose to not use their kp n1, or someone stopped it, I wanna believe it was me, but there are some inconsistences with Gemma dying so idk
Is it possible the scum team used the day kill in lieu of a night kill?
KCC, you can't honestly believe that you look anywhere near townie enough or even townie at all, to argue, "you hadn't actually setup that push enough and were concerned with how that looked"
Exactly. You thought I was a soft target you could just jump on without reasons. -Until I called you out on your push not lining up with anything you'd ever posted.
also @KCC
the reason why me reads go back and forth when I am town, is because every time someone says something about my reads, may it be a town or a wolf read, I put it into consideration, and sometimes I just straight up 180 it because I am putting more trust in their thoughts rather than mine
@Grape
You can either assume mafia chose to not use their kp n1, or someone stopped it, I wanna believe it was me, but there are some inconsistences with Gemma dying so idk
Is it possible the scum team used the day kill in lieu of a night kill?
@kcc
I'm not going to bother with you, attack me if you want, I say things on a spur sometimes my brain thinks they are true, whether they are not is not something I usually don't bother with, but I aint doing it with the malicious undertone if that's what you seem to believe
you should listen to the person who is dead that believed I was town, because when he says I have a problem with TMI as a wolf, he's not lying, he saw it first hand when we were wolves together
this game has been overwhelming for me, and on another note I am pretty disappointed in the fact that you are focusing on me today
@Silver
only asked cause this day kill user is still out their somewhere, its possible its one of them, or its possible someone who has already claimed is hiding it
WHAT DO U WANT ME TO SAY, YOU KEEP SAYING I DIDNT TALK ABOUT YOU AT ALL, AND IVE BEEN BACK AND FOURTH ON YOU BECAUSE OF
1. YOUR INITIAL SOFT
2. AND HOW ******* SCUMMY YOUR CLAIM IS
holy jesus man, Im the one being malicious here? you want me to go find all the posts that mention your name? is this because I havent taken a stance based on your actual content? you dont radiate towniness anywhere, you dont deserve to be a town lean. Rhands says you dont resemble your mafia self based on the game he posted, I read your iso there, I see no difference
(I'm presently considering whether KCC and Proph are a dichotomy, there's a lot of overlap in their roles imo)
I'd be less concerned about this, except Tom was already pretty close to me with the redirect and Jail. I doubt the game has 3 RBs and they're all Town.
Also, if I'm understanding Prophs claim, he's used it 3 times and it's done exactly nothing so far? Like, none of them do anything right now? That feels wrong
On the semi plus side, I don't think he's an Arsonist or neutral of any kind
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Bye.
@Killjoy:
Couple of things; think you've been a lot more aggressive with your votes this game as opposed to other games (you've pressured Axel/KCC/Rhand for most of Day 1) and you've been active with following up with people when they don't answer your questions.
@Keldeo
Was explicitly told that I found myself gifting an orb to Nacho, when I targeted Axelrod on N2.
This is probably a good one? Not sure if 2666 Mafia is actually still viewable but replaced into similar circumstances as this game (replaced in the middle of Day 2, randed town, spent some time catching up and making a large wallpost)
Can I get a link to this? Like to think I'm more adept at reading off-site games than other people.
Tried to give dkings an Orange Orb, got roleblocked.
I think scum having a loud bodyguard would be kind of bastardly, so I don't believe that's the case. dkings is someone I am strongly scumreading due to behavior, though. Having him be confirmed as town would be surprising to me.
@fulcrum
Alright, I read through it.
...Yeah, reading through your towncase is making me have some second thoughts about Vaimes being scum. The point about scum!Vaimes not even considering how his role would be used in a townie manner is insightful and something I didn't really consider. Your breakdown of the possible scum/town motivations and risks and rewards is also cogent.
I think I was reading too much into his macro-tells as opposed to looking at his micro-tells, which you've done here. However, here's the problem I'm having - in the world where (I suppose) you and Vaimes are both town, who are the mafia? tom just got iced. dkings apparently has mod confirmation that he is a bodyguard (which makes no sense to me). Are my reads really this rusty after a 1.5 year break from MTGS mafia?
Part of me feels like scum Vaimes would probably be too self-conscious to post something like this in the game thread if he was mafia.
Yeah, reading through most of Today, I guess Vaimes can be town. Definitely need to revise my reads then if that's the case.
I'm Prospero, Town Enchanter.
My spring ability is I can give someone a green orb at Night.
My summer ability is that I can give someone a yellow orb at Night.
My winter ability is that I can give someone a blue orb at Night.
My fall ability is that I can give someone a orange orb at Night.
In addition, X times per game during the Day, I can pick an orb and give it to another player during the Day once per Day.
If a player with a green orb targets a player with an green or orange orb, they are roleblocked.
If a player with a yellow orb targets a player with a yellow or orange orb, their ability name is told to the player that is targeted.
If a player with a blue orb targets a player with a blue or orange orb, that player is protected from the first nightkill to target them during that Night.
Orange orbs have no effect but make the other orbs work.
Day 1 - shadow targets vezok with a blue orb.
Night 1 - I target Axel with a yellow orb. Gave my orb to Nacho instead.
Night 2 - I target dkings with a green orb. I was roleblocked.
- I think Killjoy, Silver, Last, KCC, and Axelrod are behaviorally town. I still believe Axelrod's claim. Asta and Vaimes are lower tier town reads. Keldeo is someone who I need to reread and get a better feel for - he has a lot of nuance in his posts for sure, but I can't tell if that's something that specific to only town him or something he can generally fake as both alignments (hence why I'd like to get some meta).
- I find it bizarre that there are both masons, a double voter, and a bodyguard/Friendly Neighbor all in the same setup. I want dkings to come and confirm that his bodyguard is public, because I do not recall him mentioning that in his claim.
- KCC, I didn't mention anything about you because I assumed you were pulling a gambit and did not want me to question what you were doing.
- I want to go back to Nacho's reads now that's he's dead and flipped town. He was actively rereading before his death and I can trust his reads. To that, if dkings is indeed town, I want to reread and poke at Rhand/fulcrum with sticks. Rhand was a townread of mine earlier but Nacho raised good points in his last couple of posts, and he hasn't posted anything in the past couple of weeks that has made me feel good about him. One post I didn't really like was this:
I know it's easy to say this because tom flipped town, but shifting your read that strongly based off of a joke post tom made feels very disingenuous to me.
I think if there is any mafia on my wagon, it's fulcrum and even though she raised solid points with her Vaimes defense, she's the least townie out of most of the players in the game right now and if dkings is town then there are not a whole lot of people left that can be mafia.
Unvote, vote Rhand
@proph: Do your orbs survive after your death?
I'm still debating if scum shadow would send me a protection orb just to mess with me or this is town shadow who simply read me correctly in a few posts.
So we still need to talk to decide on wagon, but if you are town, you're gonna have to vote on the biggest wagon regardless of your opinion of it. Otherwise we'll just lynch town.
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
@Keldeo: how has your Vaimes read evolved since then?
Keldeo read finished. That was tough. I still don't like how he doesn't seem to take hard stances on anything.
Does anyone have experience with him? Is that his normal play style?
Working on reading Fulcrum now.
There's the early interaction with Vezok which wasn't w/v, there's the irritation with tom (I don't think scum would show this level of irritation knowing tom is town. Scum would either not voice anything or try to get him lynched over it) and the irritation when I was wondering if he was counterclaiming KCC. And then the real counterclaim to Axel.
The only thing I don't understand is that she doesn't seem to believe her own counterclaim anymore, but I can't see a wolf motivation for dropping that either.
vezokpiraka
Grapefruit21
dkingsland967
Asta
town reads (from strong to weaker):
fulcrum
KittyCupCake
Lastwhisper
Killjoy
POE (from null to scumread):
Silvercrys3467
Prophylaxis
Axelrod
Keldeo
Vaimes
I'm going to focus on reading the POE grouping now
vote Vaimes
@Proph
What's your scum Poe?
Why is KCC a town read for you?
What are your reads looking like?
vezok: Forgot to mention that. When I die, orbs start disappearing at a rate of two per season, with the most recent orbs disappearing first.
Rhand: Is there a reason why you aren't showing your thought process/reactions to posts when you're rereading? It makes it quite difficult to gauge your thought process (for example, I don't understand why you think Keldeo doesn't take hard stances on anything, he had some solid stances in post 2700 and is currently voting me)
The scum!KCC I just caught in the last micro was very aggressive and oozed agenda. I don’t see any of that here.
That early claim also doesn’t fit how I see her scum meta.
@Proph: that post is Keldeo explaining why he doesn’t take hard stances. He still waffles on everything.
If there’s anything post #300 has taught me for this game, it is that there’s no point in long explanations for my reads. It costs a lot of energy to write that all out and all it got me was flak.
If you want me to flesh out certain reads, then ask.
Meanwhile I reread Silver, and I keep going back and forth. I still feel like his initial scumread on me was typical town reading Rhand, but the way he keeps coming back to it irks me. He keeps writing me off as town and then putting me back in his scum pile.
which game is this?
I am working off about 4 hours sleep right now and my brain is fuzzy. So, look for more coherent thoughts tomorrow.
It is possible that the post was written specifically with the thought that I might post it in the thread later. Like, that is not only possible, that is what happened. Same as the post I wrote for my N1 (or technically N2) action, which I didn't end up posting. It started as me just working through my thoughts on why I was doing what I was doing - because I tend to like explaining my choices to the Mod. when I submit them - but then I thought I might want to post them to the thread later as well.
So, yes, this is essentially exactly what I would have done if I was going to "fake" my thought process. I would absolutely have made sure it was permissible to do ahead of time, which is why you don't town-read me for the fact of posting it. Only potentially if you think the actual thought process is genuine.
Anyway, I do not have the mental energy to do anything but skim right now. I cannot process that claim of Prophs, except it looks very elaborate if it's fake, so, it's probably mostly true, but what that means for alignment is a huge *shrug atm.
That isn't this though:
"I still feel like his initial scumread on me was typical town reading Rhand, but the way he keeps coming back to it irks me. He keeps writing me off as town and then putting me back in his scum pile."
It happened one time like 2000 posts ago, it's not a pattern like you seem to be indicating
Your read on me felt natural at first, but your reassessment of it afterwards feels kind of fake because in the end you didn’t really ever reassess?
I still think you’re more likely town than scum, but this bugs me.
You were still in my PoE I just wasn't confident you would flip red, and then Keldeo asked why you're wolfy and I said "it isn't as bad as I thought at first but this was my original read, it's kind of still where I'm at"
It's fine if that bugs you or whatever but it feels like you overstated there being pattern of this because you saw other people doubting my alignment and are trying to turn me into a mislunch now
@Proph: Here is my ISO in the recent game I was talking about. It was a hydra game, but I signed all my posts. If you're looking for a more representative sample of my meta, I linked some more games in this post.
Can you go more into what from toDay changed Vaimes to a town read for you? I know you talked about it a little bit but I'd like you to elaborate a bit more.
Okay I am obsessed with this role. It's so complicated and finicky. It seems to crazy to be fake but it also isn't passing the sniff test of feeling real to me. I've been trying to sort it out in my head and it just doesn't seem to fit to me. Between the claims of DK, Tom, and KCC I just don't see space for it as claimed. But we know there is a grain of truth because all 3 have some level of public confirmation.
Asta is confirming DK's protection.
Proph confirms KCC's RB.
And Proph's gift is confirmed.
The whole thing is fishy but I can't figure out what isn't fitting.
--
Rhand (3) - Vezokpiraka, Silvercrys, Prophylaxis
Prophylaxis (3) - Keldeo, lastwhisper, fulcrum
Vaimes (1) - Rhand
Axelrod (1) - Vaimes
Not Voting(4) - dkingsland967, Grapefruit21, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
Since this seems pretty split, and we've got less than a week before the deadline and need 10 votes to lynch, I wanted to see who even would be possible to lynch toDay. I was going to ask people for their POEs/bottom tiers, like tom did, but I think enough was posted to figure it out -
If we leave Axel and dkings' votes out for now, we have a max of 13 votes. So, if each person "votes" for everyone they seem to be okay with lynching / are not townreading, the viable wagons are:
Keldeo (12): Everyone but me
Proph (12): Everyone but him
Rhand (11): Everyone but him and KCC
Possibly viable wagons given compromise from people not on them, or added votes from Axel/dkings:
KCC (8*): Killjoy, Silver, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, Keldeo, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok,
Axel (7*): Killjoy, Rhand, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok
Probably not happening today:
Vaimes (4): Silver, Rhand, Keldeo, Axel
Silver (4): Killjoy, Asta, Asta, Rhand
Fulcrum (3): Proph, Keldeo, KCC
Lastwhisper (2): Killjoy, KCC
Dkings (2): Proph, fulcrum
This is all dependent on me having counted "votes"/interpreted posts correctly. A bit busywork, but maybe this makes the thread state a bit clearer.
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I'm puzzled that no one seems to be, like, hard defending any of these three "viable wagons." There are just people who would prefer other people in their POE, or would only vote us to compromise. This is probably expected, because if more than ~3 people were strongly defending someone, they wouldn't be a viable wagon in the first place. But if there are mafia in the top three there, why are they being bussed? It seems pretty subpar to bus today, given that mafia would need to convince even fewer town than usual in order to not get a mafia lynched - if there are mafia bussing today, I'd think it's probably a result of carrying over reads from a previous day to be consistent...? If there are not mafia, where is it that the townreads of [the thread/people/me] are wrong right now?
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I also think, from a setup gaming perspective, that the 10 to lynch today might point to Asta being town. If he were mafia, it would be nearly impossible to lynch mafia today, and that just seems like a rough thing for town - especially if the increase in the number required to lynch is also from a mafia role. And given that no one's claimed it, I'd guess it's more likely that it's a result of a mafia action.
(Alternatively, it could be from (1) the role of someone who's dead (which could only be Gemma, I think) or who can't claim it for whatever reason; (2) Wisp's "dreams of prophecy," but I don't think he is faking not knowing what it does, or faking his frustration at the number of people needed to lynch, and besides, I don't think he is w/w with Asta; or (3) something weird I haven't thought of.)
I don't think it is but that seems to be the consensus in the thread.
I ask because if it is due to Wisp we should definitely take a serious look at him today. Because it's decidedly anti town.
Last: You said 'interesting catch' about how Grape and vezok don't seem to agree on silver. Why must they? Why is that a 'catch'?
Also, why is Proph the best lynch right now? Because of his push on DK?
Keldeo: It's not that you should have wanted a lynch, nor that there's a mechanical reason for a no lynch. The problem is that you unvoted one of my scumreads for poor reasons. You backed off that wagon for bad reasons.
I will say it tempers it a bit knowing the mechanical benefit being widely known at that point. It makes your indecisiveness/ lean toward no lynching not AS bad. But, in general, scum prefer no lynching to lynching because it gives town less info and gives scum more control. So, for that reason plus the reason above, if KCC is scum, you might also be scum. But given the new info, you aren't (as?) independently scummy.
But, as such. Unvote.
Vaimes: Can you talk to me about why Axel is scum? Give me a paragraph? Is 3200 all of it?
Hmmm. I think I wanna Vote Rhand.
Proph: Aggressiveness and followup is what town!me looks like, huh? You have nothing more... specific?
Who is 'they'? The player doing the targetting, or the player being targeted?
Hey, I liked your reads list at the time when I was catching up!
Can you talk to me about your Vaimes read? I looked back on your ISO I don't find much reasoning for you wanting to lynch him outside of you saying that you don't believe that your role and his role can coexist, and that he's "shut down and isn't helping progress at all".
Keldeo: Thanks, I'll take a look at those when I get the time.
Vaimes isn't a strong town read, but I actually sat down and took the time to read fulcrum's towncase on him and it made a lot of sense to me. Also think that some of the things he's posted lately are a little too on-the-nose for him to post as scum.
This is a sentiment IMO that town Vaimes would probably just post and not care about how he is perceived, but something that scum Vaimes would probably think about internally but not post in thread, if that makes sense.
Also I agree with you in that wagons should be consolidated on me/Rhand/you atm.
Grapefruit: Not sure what I can tell you, it's my role.
Also I disagree with you about looking at Wisp. Think that dreaming god is designed to have positive and negative effects for the town, and evaluating his alignment based on how scummy or townie his dreaming god abilities are is kind of loose.
Killjoy: I mean, considering that you either didn't vote or voted only one person for the entire Day in previous town games of yours, I'd say yes? Think you've improved a lot in the past four/five months or so.
The person doing the targeting.
I'll see if I can get some Rhand/Keldeo/fulcrum ISOs done in the next couple of days.
1) @Asta
I *AM* protecting you, but there is definitely nothing in my role PM about mod confirmation of my ability. I just double-checked to make sure I didn't miss it. Is this a specific Oberon/Titania interaction? Can you provide some more clarify on what you were told?
2) Regarding Axelrod's PM/post/quote/thing
I'm wary. This reminds me of something one of my scumbuddies did in Big Red Button (I think it was DV) where he posted a rant in the thread from one of the lynch QTs. It was super fake and scummy and I couldn't believe he didn't get run up for it.
Now I am confused about Asta/DK, like I had asked Asta if this was just him believing DK had protected him
Anyways I can't say anymore till Asta answer DK's question
Past, revenge, friendship
Night 0 was tranquility
Night 1 was leadership
Night 2 was prophecy
@grape
I mean there isn't much I can do to quell that thought, I wish I could confirm what my abilities do but I can't, king maker is the only one that really matches
@Grape
You can either assume mafia chose to not use their kp n1, or someone stopped it, I wanna believe it was me, but there are some inconsistences with Gemma dying so idk
its exactly what Silver said, if I have a mason chat, I am not going to talk like I am a solo player, given we are both actively given our thoughts in the chat, which again Grape/Vezok have widely different lives and timezones which hinders their ability to interact which is fair, so ya
but like if I have a partner may it be a mason or another hydra or anything of the sorts, I always keep my partners thoughts in the back of my mind when I post my thoughts, and read our chat, so I understand where Silver is coming from when he pointed out that they don't seem to act like masons
@Keldeo
dont see how Asta is townier because he is the counter to a mechanic we know nothing about
@Proph
my reads have been shifted throughout this day phase because of evberyone elses thoughts, I really dont know where I stand, which is why instead of given full on reads, which requires me to reread, I have sorta been building teams based on what I believe and what others believe as the day goes on and new thoughts come up
Like I am quite certain that even given my paranioa Grape/Vezok are town, DK/Asta are of the same alignment, that Killjoy is town, I eventually want to do a deep dive of the thread, but idk when that is happening
Can you walk through why you made these choices?
@DK: And you didn't get an orb?
Wait. What did you do last Night?
Is it possible the scum team used the day kill in lieu of a night kill?
I did not receive an orb
I claimed weak investigative but my abilities aren't out
I think everyone else is more or less full claimed?
(I'm presently considering whether KCC and Proph are a dichotomy, there's a lot of overlap in their roles imo)
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Okay. So, walk me through what you could possibly be talking about here:
... because that whole post is just a lie
Exactly. You thought I was a soft target you could just jump on without reasons. -Until I called you out on your push not lining up with anything you'd ever posted.
That's not an issue I have. I don't expect that at all. I just expect you to not blatantly make things up
I don't care what you believe??
Also, not anything I'm talking about.
I'm not going to bother with you, attack me if you want, I say things on a spur sometimes my brain thinks they are true, whether they are not is not something I usually don't bother with, but I aint doing it with the malicious undertone if that's what you seem to believe
you should listen to the person who is dead that believed I was town, because when he says I have a problem with TMI as a wolf, he's not lying, he saw it first hand when we were wolves together
this game has been overwhelming for me, and on another note I am pretty disappointed in the fact that you are focusing on me today
@Silver
only asked cause this day kill user is still out their somewhere, its possible its one of them, or its possible someone who has already claimed is hiding it
what did I make up?
1. YOUR INITIAL SOFT
2. AND HOW ******* SCUMMY YOUR CLAIM IS
holy jesus man, Im the one being malicious here? you want me to go find all the posts that mention your name? is this because I havent taken a stance based on your actual content? you dont radiate towniness anywhere, you dont deserve to be a town lean. Rhands says you dont resemble your mafia self based on the game he posted, I read your iso there, I see no difference
I'd be less concerned about this, except Tom was already pretty close to me with the redirect and Jail. I doubt the game has 3 RBs and they're all Town.
Also, if I'm understanding Prophs claim, he's used it 3 times and it's done exactly nothing so far? Like, none of them do anything right now? That feels wrong
On the semi plus side, I don't think he's an Arsonist or neutral of any kind