Axel, your point that I didn’t push Proph and that is suspicious doesn’t make sense, either. Consider the world you are in: I am mafia, Rhand is mafia, Proph is (?). If Proph is town, I should have pushed him harder so that Rhand or I wouldn’t have been in that situation, no? And if Proph is mafia, why make that post saying that people should consolidate onto me/Rhand/Proph at all? I am not someone who will yell at people to lynch my pet read or something.
If you (general you) are town I’d appreciate if you could consider a world where I’m town, and read Rhand in that context.
Keldeo is kinda right. The way he played yesterday seems to be extremely dubious coming from a scum partner with Rhand. There's also a lot of bits and pieces here and there where his posts are just weird from a scum perspective.
Unfortunately, the evidence against him is too stacked and I can't really agree with keeping him alive in good conscience. He'll always be in the back of my mind as a very possible scum suspect. It also doesn't help that there are no strong pushes from him that could maybe help us solve his alignment by lynching his targets.
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Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy. Check out the Shop Thread
Vaimes, I have a question about the message sender thing you give away. What will that look like, to the player who is getting sent the message? Is it just, a message from the Mod. which could literally say anything, and the sender could choose to not reveal that the message was from them if they wanted?
I'm wondering this like, if scum had this ability, can they send a message that says "Player X is not mafia." Which then looks like something official from the Mod.
Or "You are now being protected by Queen Titania."
Axel, your point that I didn’t push Proph and that is suspicious doesn’t make sense, either. Consider the world you are in: I am mafia, Rhand is mafia, Proph is (?). If Proph is town, I should have pushed him harder so that Rhand or I wouldn’t have been in that situation, no?
No?
I mean, you might have played it that way, but you easily might not have? You're not very big on pushes in general, it seems. I don't know if that's Town-you or scum-you or both. The non-committal aspect of it is part of what I don't like, in that - as scum - it looks like you're afraid to make a hard push on Town-Proph and (1) be wrong, and (2) potentially tie yourself to rhand. As Town I don't know what you're doing, or perhaps I should say what you're doing is something I would never do. This would not be the first time I voted someone for not playing the way I thought they should play. But this is also not the only time you've done it.
There's too many times of me going
And if Proph is mafia, why make that post saying that people should consolidate onto me/Rhand/Proph at all? I am not someone who will yell at people to lynch my pet read or something.
That post was almost redundant with what was happening in the game already. That's why I said it sounded somewhat "helpful townie." As scum, you make that post just hoping it will look good later, one way or the other. You guys are probably talking about it in the scum-chat, and maybe conceding the likelihood one of you is going down. Maybe rhand goes down, and you can say you helped. Maybe things actually consolidate onto (town) Proph. and it works out. If you get lynched, at least there is probably no way for someone to read anything against rhand out of it. And if Proph is scum, well, then you guys were just screwed period yesterday, so no harm is done by you making that post.
If you (general you) are town I’d appreciate if you could consider a world where I’m town, and read Rhand in that context.
You are asking me to invest a lot of time/brainpower into an alternate hypothesis. What do you expect me to find from doing this? As far as I can tell, literally the only one you have suggested as an alternate to you is KCC (which, incidentally, is what several other people have already said). And your basis - which seems almost entirely based on rhand's being hands off with her - seems very WIFOM.
Rest assured, if you're Town (and I live - which I suppose I just might if you're town) I'll be re-visiting.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Like what would have made you townread my reaction to KCC’a claim? Saying “hey guys I’m a roleblocker too, what do you think of KCC’a role?” Should I just full claim SOD1 from now on?
And I'll say this again, for future reference. It's not about claiming - though some Town just can't help themselves in a situation like that. It's not about "softing" - though, again, I feel like most Town would be motivated to post something in a situation like that. It's about saying/doing nothing. Having zero reaction when it seems like you ought to have had one. Trying to figure out KCC, instead of appearing mostly indifferent to her and asking other people questions.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I mean what gain do you expect to get from continuing to case me? You have made it very clear that you scumread me and think I should die today. I’m not asking you to find someone else to lynch, I’m always dying today anyway, what I’m asking you is just to get a head start on considering it. It’s fine if if you want to revisit overnight, I guess.
And in the meantime, you - you know, the one being lynched - could do it much more effectively, knowing your own alignment, that is.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
OK back, let me get caught up on the recent events.
Quote from Keldeo »
I haven't finished looking at KCC/Rhand stuff either, but she's the person I'd like to kill most out of the people I got a chance to look at. Rhand had da strong townread on her for most of the game, which isn't bad in itself but specifically I feel as though Rhand would have flipped on her at some point if he could push her as a mislynch, which has definitely been plausible, but he kept going on a strong townread of her from her first posts, meta reasons, and her voting Nacho with him day 1. You can look at Rhand walking back his early meta-ish townread of Mindreaver as an example of him opening up a mislynch opportunity as the thread attitudes shifted. dot dot dot
Vote KittyCupCake
Keldeo, what do you make of KCC being virtually the only person to townread or express a "Not Scum" read on Rhand for most of Yesterday? Do you think that she was just caught dead in the water there for Day 2?
Quote from Silvercrys »
Yep, solving the game with mechanics because my behavioral reads are a big mush and I don't really have time to iso a bunch of people, plus game feels solvable from claims
Fair; I echo you on "not really having time to ISO a bunch of people".
I have this slight paranoia tingle on you where you're pushing lynches due to mechanical reasons over behavior given that I know you're a heavily behavioral based player, buuuuuuut I don't think you're aligned with Rhand based on how you pushed him Yesterday so I feel inclined to sheep you and see where we end up (also b/c I've been feeling super lost Today, definitely wish that deadline was a little longer)
@Asta
Reconcile these two posts for me:
Quote from Asta »
Never a dull moment, huh. Just burning up the stage here. Alright so
Fulcrum/Vaimes/Killjoy feel cleared through set-up gaming.
Axel's last few posts with Rhand feel suspicious.
Grape confirmed Mason, which confirms Vezok. Feels weird that mafia would have killed the masons this early when they were just kinda waiting around to be murder-lurdered later.
I'll finish scoop later, gotta get to work.
Quote from Asta »
Vote Keldeo
I might rethink after a vote count and everything, but this feels right based on Axel's spec.
First you say that "Axel's last few posts with Rhand feel suspicious" and then in your next post, you agree with Axel's analysis and vote Keldeo? Especially because you moved off on Keldeo Yesterday:
Quote from Asta »
Okay I *love* Keldeo's posts tbh-- accumulating all the reads to figure out the best potential wagons is good. He didn't try to defend his possible wagon. I dunno, I just dig it.
Can you talk about your progression here? Going from loving Keldeo's posts, to the Rhand flip, to saying that "Axel's last few posts with Rhand feel suspicious", to voting Keldeo based on his analysis?
This mechanical discussion and stuff about KJ being a neutral is just making me bury my hands into my face. I want to keep saying this - we aren't here to lynch neutrals. We're here to lynch scum. Caring too much about a neutral is just inviting the scum to manipulate discussion. (Flashbacks to Pizza in Final Fantasy 2 Mafia where he brazenly neutral hunted during the Day and got away with it)
@fulcrum: What do you think about the points I raised against Asta earlier in this post?
Quote from Killjoy »
I'm curious why Proph sent me an orange orb last night though. I've been meaning to ask but keep forgetting.
@proph
I gave you an orange orb so that anyone with a blue orb can protect you. You were one of my stronger townreads going into N3.
@Keldeo - now that you're here, can you talk to me about your gloves on approach WRT me throughout most of Yesterday?
You were voting me and I think it was clear that you wanted me to be lynched, but you mostly asked me a bunch of questions rather than putting me under the gun/argued strongly for my lynch. Do you normally not make cases/convince others to lynch the person you want to lynch?
Spring - King of Aos Si, two votes, originally not active until Summer (Meaning I did not have the power online until Nacho swapped to Summer)
Summer - King of Aos Si, two votes
Fall - I'm a vanilla townie
Winter - Benevolent King, I can target one person that day, and that person is blessed by a winter wind or some ish that increased their lynch threshold by 1 (one)
Unless there's something you know that I don't, that's all of my abilities.
Okay, yeah, I don't believe this.
So, I have 5 abilities:
Playful Forgetfulness is my spring RB.
Lethargy of Feasts is my fall delay shield.
Winter Trap is my... winter trap that delays.
Lightning Strike is my busdrive.
And then Summer Storms is my summer ability that just triggers to turn on the busdrives.
Obviously, you have an extra vote ability now, Asta. But, I don't believe it works as claimed. If it worked so similarly to how mine turns on in the summer, why don't you have a separate trigger?
FWIW I also have a similar "trigger" ability.
I just realized I haven't done "full" claim for massclaim, so here:
I've got 3 abilities:
- Summer of Love: The first time the game transitions to summer, I gain a single use of Fairy Devotion
- Fairy Devotion: This is the BG ability. It's restricted to summer, but I can choose a target at any time.
- Cycle of Renewal: Any time the game circles back to summer, I can change my target if I so choose.
Keldeo is kinda right. The way he played yesterday seems to be extremely dubious coming from a scum partner with Rhand. There's also a lot of bits and pieces here and there where his posts are just weird from a scum perspective.
Some of that could be a result of Keldeo being from a different site.
I stand by the observations I made late D3. He spent a lot of time asking other people about Rhand instead of engaging directly, among other things.
I mean I know I know my own alignment haha, I’m going to do that sit down and analyze people more deeply thing on Saturday because I don’t have time today for more than mobile pop-ins.
Proph, what do you mean by putting you under the gun? I’m not really the type to bust out a wallpost case or idk, treat someone as outed when I’m not sure, and I’ve had trouble finding confident wolfreads this game. It probably makes me a worse player to not have that confidence, but it’s not really how I think about the game.
Also, DV confirmed that Preparation for Winter (my summer ability) would probably not be able to be tracked or blocked, depending On the wording of the ability.
@Proph
Why does it feel like you are taking a 3rd party approach to the thread? like you are doing your own thing in isolation while seemingly oblivious to the fact that Keldeo is getting brutalized in the thread right now?
honestly a lack of counter train probably means nothing, but its like either Keldeo is a wolf and his partners are going for bus cred
or he is town
it really is hard to understand the mindset of Keldeo, but like where are his partners in this equation?
you guys are telling me there is nothing that you like about Keldeo?
you can call this fencesitting because I am refusing to take a stance on him, but like I have my thoughts and yall have yours, I still believe it could go either way
its probably best though because then we can start working on people outside Keldeo, or he just flips wolf and we gucci
I'm doing this because I haven't read or posted at all in four days and I'm trying to work out Keldeo's alignment for myself; I'm uncertain of his alignment atm
Think this is the first time this Day we've actually been able to talk and I want to do interact with him
@Keldeo: How do you generally interact with scumreads then? Just felt weird to me that instead of voting me and convincing the rest of the game to lunch your scumread you just asked me a couple of questions then pivoted elsewhere
Help me understand your playstyle; I understand that it's influenced a lot from Newcomb but that's to the extent of it
@Proph
you dont have to answer this anytime soon, but preferably before we end the day
if Keldeo flips town where do you go from here?
and vice versa as well?
There have been attempts at a counterwagon (fulcrum wants Proph being the most notable, as I recall) just no bites elsewhere
I doubt all of the people voting counterwagons are wolves, though that doesn't help much (one of them is Keldeo himself, the others are fulcrum and Vaimes of whom only fulcrum night be imo)
@Keldeo: sorry if you said, I probably missed it. Why do you want KCC?
There have been attempts at a counterwagon (fulcrum wants Proph being the most notable, as I recall) just no bites elsewhere
I doubt all of the people voting counterwagons are wolves, though that doesn't help much (one of them is Keldeo himself, the others are fulcrum and Vaimes of whom only fulcrum night be imo)
@Keldeo: sorry if you said, I probably missed it. Why do you want KCC?
There's also some lip service about KCC that no one is acting on.
I'm one of them. I do currently think that if they're only one scum between KCC and Keldeo I'm leaning towards KCC rn. I'm not super confident in that though.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
honestly a lack of counter train probably means nothing, but its like either Keldeo is a wolf and his partners are going for bus cred
or he is town
it really is hard to understand the mindset of Keldeo, but like where are his partners in this equation?
you guys are telling me there is nothing that you like about Keldeo?
you can call this fencesitting because I am refusing to take a stance on him, but like I have my thoughts and yall have yours, I still believe it could go either way
its probably best though because then we can start working on people outside Keldeo, or he just flips wolf and we gucci
Vaimes: talk to me about this post. How scummy are you seeing?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I do get the point (I think it was silver who said this?) that wolf fulcrum wouldn't have that much to lose by clearing KJ, so I guess it's more of a setup gaming thing, where Vaimes confirmed she had the ability and it doesn't make that much sense on a wolf to me.
KCC:
Claiming a scummy role from the get-go is the townie thing to do. Scum doesn’t like locking themselves into a claim from the start. I know a few players that do things like that, but KCC doesn’t strike me as one of those, unless she is consciously changing up her game. Which is totally unnecessary because she hasn’t played that many games recently that we all know her meta.
I like her Nacho reaction and have a total mindmeld with her question to Vaimes in #200
Verdict: town
...
Axelrod:
The fact that he chose a semi-serious RVS target is bothersome. What is worse is that he uses KCC’s later posts to strengthen that vote. And then he calls tom’s gimmick in itself scummy.
Verdict: scum
All right, at the risk of being accused of derailing the game on a point of "theory," let's go here for a minute.
"Claiming a scummy role from the get-go is the Townie thing to do." At first blush it looks like you are conflating "claiming your scummy role" and "claiming that you have a scummy-sounding role." And while the former might be a thing to do, depending, I would think that claiming the later isn't. I'm trying to imagine how I would act if I got a role PM and it was something I felt like, gee, if I claim this the Town is going to think I am scum for sure. Without speculating too much, my initial thought is that I would feel like I just had to be on my Townie game that game, and just be so super-Townie that I was above suspicion. Or, maybe, I would claim it. Depending on what it was. What I don't see myself doing is going "Hey guys, my role is super-scummy sounding, so, you know, when I claim it, don't hold that against me, kthxby."
That's me though. I'm not locked that no reasonable person could feel otherwise. But it was worth a vote at a time when the votes are mostly worthless.
You say that she has "locked" herself into a claim and scum don't like to do that. Except, maybe, the scum who has a scummy sounding role, yes? Wouldn't they just love to be able to claim their role and not worry about how scummy it looks? That's not a newbie-scum move, to be sure. but KCC isn't a newbie. I'm a little confused about your comments about her meta also. Do you think you know it? Or not? You say she doesn't "strike" you as the type to make a gutsy scum move in her 1st post, but where is that coming from? You also point out how she hasn't been around in a while (except for recently, when I don't think she's been scum). So, how does that even follow?
As for me, what do you find "bothersome" about my "semi-serious" RVS target? Time was, I didn't RVS vote at all, on principle, because I thought they were pointless silly things to do. I got over that. But I think I'm still quicker than most to move past that stage.
I did want to hear KCC's thoughts about why she made that post. You think that's strange? I suppose, maybe, if you really feel her play was the correct "townie" thing to do. But broaden your horizons a bit. Assuming you didn't have that opinion about her opening post - how would her follow up have reassured you? Would it have? I thought it didn't answer the question at all, except, in the most unhelpful way. Like, she is saying (now) that she hopes that by claiming her role is scummy it will help to avoid a mis-lynch? I just don't think that's so. If she is going to avoid a mis-lynch, it's going to be by playing like a Townie. Scum-day chat also does make a scum-claim like that marginally more likely.
None of that makes her scum either, but it's still early. I do not get the "town" read for all of her three posts.
This was the original post that I thought was not w/w between Axel and Rhand - both Rhand's initial read of Axel feeling casual and Axel quoting Rhand's words felt like throwing them back in his face. The latter part is less applicable now that it seems that's a stylistic thing, but the overall read still feels right to me.
I more strongly don't think Rhand/Axel/KCC are w/w/w based on this post. The bulk of this post is Axel trying to get Rhand to stop townreading KCC / arguing that Rhand's reasons to townread KCC are bad, specifically instead of picking at other reads in Rhand's #300. Positionally, abstractly, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
After that post, Axel doesn't have any "major" mentions of Rhand until after Rhand's claim yesterDay, except as a slight scumread and/or someone he needs to review.
I do like his criticism of Rhand in posts like 3419 and after, it feels like he put in the work. The mitigating circumstance here is that it came late enough in the day and he was Rhand's counterwagon so being correct on Rhand there isn't necessarily as towny, and he strikes me as the type of person who might "put in the work" in that sense as mafia too. But generally I think Axel looks decent from his side of interactions with Rhand.
Axel’s #364 makes me think we just have very opposing views on mafia. I’m still bothered by his semi-RVS and gimmick handling, but I’m going to wait and see.
My early reads are often good though. I’m conflicted.
I do know he becomes very strong later in the game if he’s town, so lynching him now on what is mainly a gutread is probably a bad idea. unvote
Quote from Nacho »
Why is Axel choosing a semi-serious RVS target bothersome? Why is him confirming his initial read based on KCC's posts bad?
Scum can feel awkward placing RVS votes and often look for sort of a reason behind them. Town hardly ever goes there and just has fun with the votes.
Confirming his “read” later on is staying in the safe zone of pushing the RVS vote so he doesn’t have to move it to someone else.
This, for the record, is Rhand's response to that Axel post I quoted (plus a tidbit on Axel from the same post.) The read on Axel here feels a little bit more like appeasing someone he knows is town (specifically the downplaying of his read as "opposing views on mafia" and "mainly a gutread") than making an excuse to hop off a partner? I'm not actually sure, maybe someone else would find this helpful.
That post I just quoted also has a segment that brings Asta back up from a scumread, which neutralizes that part of my earlier read on him. But I still think Asta is town.
Rhand: Who of dk/KCC/Axel are you scumreading and why?
Only Axel, and that wagon fizzled.
Rhand's push on Axel at EOD1 also felt... relatively serious?
As an aside, his only prior thoughts on dk up to the point of this post is "he hasn't been radiating town like he did last game" and "his frustration feels pure" and he later shuts down joining the dk wagon because his scumread Nacho was on it. Which is a bit dull in terms of I'm not entirely sure why he'd shut down that path if dk was town, unless his goal was just to be off wagon? I do think also that the bodyguard requiring three separate abilities to function the way he said it did is pretty out there to fake.
Rhand's scumread of Axel kind of disappears after that for a while. Axel also didn't talk about Rhand when he was talking about his voters unless I missed something?
This part of your post about Axel bugs me:
You accuse him of being noncommittal, but all the reads you just pushed out are noncommittal too.
He critiques my read on Axel, but I don't think it's indicative of anything about Axel, unless you want to read into his lack of commentary on me agreeing with his apparent SR.
I don’t 100% trust KJ, but I seem to be the only one finding it strange he came with such a strong read on me given our history.
I haven’t seen him as scum for a very long time (I don’t think he even has rolled scum this year), so I am not sure what he is capable of.
His read on me didn’t feel as pure, but now that he dropped it, he feels more pure again.
Silver is a whole different story. KJ always claimed he found out how to read me and was wrong every time he thought he had it. He shouldn’t be this sure. Silver is like every townie ever that mislynched me: my posts sound “off” in some way (probably because I am not native English) and that makes people mistrust me all the time to the point where they step into a Rhand tunnel and never leave it.
I think scum!Silver would have left that tunnel by now, seeing there is not much support for it in this game.
What worries me more is Fulcrum’s scum read on me. I don’t recall her ever explaining why she thinks I am scum, she just drops me in her scum pile.
@Anyone that knows Fulcrum’s meta: is that normal behaviour for her?
More points for Rhand/fulcrum not w/w, btw: This point on fulcrum seems similar to where Rhand was @ing people for their meta about me. As partners, I also don't think he'd need to mention her lack of justification here in a post that's primarily about KJ and silver really, I don't think she would have needed to put him in her shots list d2 either.
Fulcrum is probably just town.
There's the early interaction with Vezok which wasn't w/v, there's the irritation with tom (I don't think scum would show this level of irritation knowing tom is town. Scum would either not voice anything or try to get him lynched over it) and the irritation when I was wondering if he was counterclaiming KCC. And then the real counterclaim to Axel.
The only thing I don't understand is that she doesn't seem to believe her own counterclaim anymore, but I can't see a wolf motivation for dropping that either.
I actually agree with a lot of the reasoning here, which is quite lol.
god I can't wait for Vezok to take the shot. I guess I'm glad he waited this long, since Proph's big post is pretty informative. I think I might put Proph as a town-lean based on the post but I'm fully aware that I'm a ditz who just sees a big post and has the monkey-brain response of "wolf quiet, town loud" so that's a big ole grain of salt to take with that.
see i see prophs wall as... about as quiet as possible for that many words?
Eh how does that work? He is taking more Stamces than Keldeo in his reads posts. I like Proph’s catch up.
@Dkings: I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. Do you think Proph is scum because of his read on you?
Anyway, this is pretty much the only substantive post Rhand ever made on Proph's slot, which isn't great for him.
@Silver can you walk through why you think Proph shouldn't be mafia based on his role, or point to where you did if you already have? Why would mafia "need" to have a consistent disruptive, rather than a semi-disruptive that ramps up in endgame?
I had a not w/w read between KCC and Proph for their yesterDay iirc though, so it's possible this becomes moot as well if KCC is mafia.
To that, if dkings is indeed town, I want to reread and poke at Rhand/fulcrum with sticks. Rhand was a townread of mine earlier but Nacho raised good points in his last couple of posts, and he hasn't posted anything in the past couple of weeks that has made me feel good about him. One post I didn't really like was this:
Quote from Rhand »
I feel a lot worse about tom now for what Axel just pointed out. Tom loves open wolfing and that post about who his buddies would be is totally useless and fits perfectly in that meta.
I know it's easy to say this because tom flipped town, but shifting your read that strongly based off of a joke post tom made feels very disingenuous to me.
And there's the "If this is a bus, why is he giving credit to Nacho?" point.
@Keldeo: How do you generally interact with scumreads then? Just felt weird to me that instead of voting me and convincing the rest of the game to lunch your scumread you just asked me a couple of questions then pivoted elsewhere
Help me understand your playstyle; I understand that it's influenced a lot from Newcomb but that's to the extent of it
Mm, I do the "try to get people on board" thing with confident scumreads. I don't think anyone in this game has been at that level for me, maybe Axel briefly during d1? I usually need someone else encouraging me to get there. I'm very much not the type to tunnel someone or lead a lynch without both something strong and the thread pull to be able to do something with it, and my ability to make reads this game has felt frustratingly limp.
With less confident reads, the read is usually based off some aspect of progression or something that looks off, so I ask about it or get others' opinions on it. Or it's a POE read and I just ask questions about their worldview and perspective to see if some towniness ends up shining through and impressing me. I'm usually too easily impressed, though.
I take cues from Newcomb in philosophy/approach but I'm not much like him in practice, as you can probably tell. He's more "ivory tower," and a lot more confident and accurate - my reads are pretty awful and I second-guess myself / waver a lot. I'm more the person who asks questions so other people can make reads off the answers, or who brings a fresh perspective or something by pointing out weird stuff and giving everyone the benefit of the doubt.
Why are you trying to solve me here when I'm going to flip soon? I feel like you could be using your time in the thread for something more useful.
Like, if Proph is the only manipulative wolf role, any info/role reading is almost impossible to capitalize on. They can night kill that player but they can't really intentionally affect us with night actions
I guess they could burn the day orb handouts to give that player an orange orb and then a put a green orb on a partner that can target them consistently but trying to get it all to line up is kind of silly
The role makes way better sense as a town role or an extra wolf role on top of a stronger, more intentional manipulative imo
I'm pretty tired and I didn't get much productive out of that ISO sifting. Maybe what I posted helped someone?
Vezok
Vaimes
Killjoy
(don't kill anyone above this line anytime soon, imo)
Asta (considered putting him in the higher tier tbh, it'd feel right to put him there for stuff like his approach to me, his role, and Rhand stuff I've gone into... I don't really think I can feel good about it, though, based on his volume. imo if you're going to kill him you should have a really good reason, and I don't really think the way his role activates is a good reason)
fulcrum (I do have Nacho's Rhand/fulcrum theory in the back of my mind, but I feel like some of her interactions with Rhand were not w/w and her role also seems towny lol)
Axel (some Rhand interactions I like, some have me scratching my head)
Last/Silver (haven't ISOed them, seem somewhat towny independently, Rhand talking about them is probably useful and something I'll look into if I don't die before I get to the thread. @Wisp pick it up tomorrow, if that isn't too presumptuous hehe)
dkings (should maybe be higher for role reasons, I would appreciate other opinions on Rhand's EOD1)
Proph (but probably not w/w with KCC?)
KCC
or something like that. You could probably reorder everyone between Asta and Axel and get something that feels alright. You should have a really good reason if you kill anyone in the top 3 and a good reason for like the top... 5-6, imo.
Probably part of my read on Axel and dkings stems from OMGUS. I have a somewhat out-of-line emotional reaction to their push on me (you two aren't being out-of-line, it's got more to do with my circumstances/experiences than the cases themselves) and so don't think I can view it in a way that's conducive to making a neutral read.
I think you should kill KCC soon. I don't really know where the wolves are other than not liking her things with Rhand, which might mean someone is deep but generally the consensus POE (or at least my perception of it because I don't think it's been written out) feels alright to me :/
If I get hammered before I can post again - thank you all for having me as a newcomer to this forum, sorry I couldn't do more for this slot, kill some wolves for me!
Like, if Proph is the only manipulative wolf role, any info/role reading is almost impossible to capitalize on. They can night kill that player but they can't really intentionally affect us with night actions
I guess they could burn the day orb handouts to give that player an orange orb and then a put a green orb on a partner that can target them consistently but trying to get it all to line up is kind of silly
The role makes way better sense as a town role or an extra wolf role on top of a stronger, more intentional manipulative imo
Alright! Thanks for explaining the axiom haha, I don't really have this sort of setup thinking experience.
Can I ask when you started to have this thought about Proph?
Keldeo feels so pure @Wisp pick it up tomorrow, if that isn't too presumptuous hehe)
honestly I have been really lazy with this gamestate, but I will pick it up if I have to
Ugh, I knew Keldeo was gonna be a blind spot and that's no different. I'm sheeping folks on him, but folks have been unvoting/vote and now I'm the first vote on him. None of this is gonna shake out well.
Hey KCC, why would it be suspicious that I wouldn't loudly announce that I have two votes until it was absolutely necessary? Seems like a great way to get got. Honestly, I was kind of dumb to throw it down when I did. Maybe should have waited until my second vote could make a difference instead of just putting a little extra weight somewhere. Anyways, seems like a couple folks have Spring abilities that don't activate until Summer.
@Prop Yeah, I loudly grumbled about Keldeo being a blind spot multiple times. I'm sheeping. Outside of a few hard town-reads, it's kind of difficult going forward. Flippity-floppity, y'all.
I generally don't like those types of posts, but I want to see what you see in it.
I means what there not to like? town!Wisp can be hedgy too, or do you want me to just continually scream and shout
I think Keldeo is putting in a lot of effort to not die here, and like the rebuttal is, "Well he roleblocked Fulcrum and didnt claim it"
but I guess to be fair the above can be said about a lot of people
Idk why we are so honed on Keldeo though
@Vaimes
ya I probably would defend him here if we are wolf buddies, but we arent, at least I'm not
Pre-releasing all day today. I guess if the deadline is 11:00 p.m. e.s.t. I'll be back before then.
I do kinda like how Keldeo's posting now. But, I don't know if that's in his range or not, and I just don't see how we realistically lynch anyone else.
I don't read too much into the lack of pushback for this lynch, just because it's one of two things (1) Mafia happy with the situation and not rocking the boat or (2) Mafia basically conceding it, which would not be unlike yesterday with Rhand. And the one isn't all that much more likely than the other.
If Keldeo is Town, well, I guess I'm revisiting all my assumptions. Maybe I get NK and don't have to. I think my second best ability is on tonight.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I generally don't like those types of posts, but I want to see what you see in it.
I means what there not to like? town!Wisp can be hedgy too, or do you want me to just continually scream and shout
I think Keldeo is putting in a lot of effort to not die here, and like the rebuttal is, "Well he roleblocked Fulcrum and didnt claim it"
but I guess to be fair the above can be said about a lot of people
Idk why we are so honed on Keldeo though
@Vaimes
ya I probably would defend him here if we are wolf buddies, but we arent, at least I'm not
Keldeo is so nice and reasonable. I don’t really want to kill him.
Is it too late to swing?
I mean, you're voting for me? Is that how you want it to swing? You ought to know this post does nothing to change anyone's mind.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@Axel: I think Vaimes is voting for Keldeo right now but has expressed willingness to CFD to me or KCC.
Yeah I'm in a similar boat to Axel; moving back into college today is rough but I should be back before 11 EST.
@Lastwhisper: If Keldeo flips scum, I think I'm just gonna trust in Axelrod and Silver and the game becomes easy mode (which I certainly hope is the case here). If Keldeo flips town... the game becomes much more difficult. I'd like to take a hard look at Asta in that case - his summer abilities don't line up with either of KCC's or dkings, and the post I mentioned is something I want to press him on more.
Quote from Keldeo »
Mm, I do the "try to get people on board" thing with confident scumreads. I don't think anyone in this game has been at that level for me, maybe Axel briefly during d1? I usually need someone else encouraging me to get there. I'm very much not the type to tunnel someone or lead a lynch without both something strong and the thread pull to be able to do something with it, and my ability to make reads this game has felt frustratingly limp.
With less confident reads, the read is usually based off some aspect of progression or something that looks off, so I ask about it or get others' opinions on it. Or it's a POE read and I just ask questions about their worldview and perspective to see if some towniness ends up shining through and impressing me. I'm usually too easily impressed, though.
Ohh, okay, then. So your approach to me Yesterday was something like "I'm not too sure on Proph, but he hasn't really been townie and he's low on my PoE so I'm just going to vote him and then ask him questions about his progression and worldview to see if something impresses"?
Not sure if you can do this but can I see your train of thought WRT your read on me? All I remember from Yesterday is that you voted me due to PoE and then asked me questions but I don't recall you explicitly laying out your progression. This doesn't have to be super exhaustive, fyi
Quote from Keldeo »
I take cues from Newcomb in philosophy/approach but I'm not much like him in practice, as you can probably tell. He's more "ivory tower," and a lot more confident and accurate - my reads are pretty awful and I second-guess myself / waver a lot. I'm more the person who asks questions so other people can make reads off the answers, or who brings a fresh perspective or something by pointing out weird stuff and giving everyone the benefit of the doubt.
Got it, ty.
Quote from Keldeo »
Why are you trying to solve me here when I'm going to flip soon? I feel like you could be using your time in the thread for something more useful.
I think there's time to move off on you if you are indeed town and I think getting a handle on your mindset and how you think is important.
@Prop Yeah, I loudly grumbled about Keldeo being a blind spot multiple times. I'm sheeping. Outside of a few hard town-reads, it's kind of difficult going forward. Flippity-floppity, y'all.
Tell me how your reads changed from "Axel is suspicious" to "I'm going to trust Axel on Keldeo".
Axel, your point that I didn’t push Proph and that is suspicious doesn’t make sense, either. Consider the world you are in: I am mafia, Rhand is mafia, Proph is (?). If Proph is town, I should have pushed him harder so that Rhand or I wouldn’t have been in that situation, no? And if Proph is mafia, why make that post saying that people should consolidate onto me/Rhand/Proph at all? I am not someone who will yell at people to lynch my pet read or something.
If you (general you) are town I’d appreciate if you could consider a world where I’m town, and read Rhand in that context.
Unfortunately, the evidence against him is too stacked and I can't really agree with keeping him alive in good conscience. He'll always be in the back of my mind as a very possible scum suspect. It also doesn't help that there are no strong pushes from him that could maybe help us solve his alignment by lynching his targets.
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I mean, you might have played it that way, but you easily might not have? You're not very big on pushes in general, it seems. I don't know if that's Town-you or scum-you or both. The non-committal aspect of it is part of what I don't like, in that - as scum - it looks like you're afraid to make a hard push on Town-Proph and (1) be wrong, and (2) potentially tie yourself to rhand. As Town I don't know what you're doing, or perhaps I should say what you're doing is something I would never do. This would not be the first time I voted someone for not playing the way I thought they should play. But this is also not the only time you've done it.
There's too many times of me going
That post was almost redundant with what was happening in the game already. That's why I said it sounded somewhat "helpful townie." As scum, you make that post just hoping it will look good later, one way or the other. You guys are probably talking about it in the scum-chat, and maybe conceding the likelihood one of you is going down. Maybe rhand goes down, and you can say you helped. Maybe things actually consolidate onto (town) Proph. and it works out. If you get lynched, at least there is probably no way for someone to read anything against rhand out of it. And if Proph is scum, well, then you guys were just screwed period yesterday, so no harm is done by you making that post.
You are asking me to invest a lot of time/brainpower into an alternate hypothesis. What do you expect me to find from doing this? As far as I can tell, literally the only one you have suggested as an alternate to you is KCC (which, incidentally, is what several other people have already said). And your basis - which seems almost entirely based on rhand's being hands off with her - seems very WIFOM.
Rest assured, if you're Town (and I live - which I suppose I just might if you're town) I'll be re-visiting.
I mean what gain do you expect to get from continuing to case me? You have made it very clear that you scumread me and think I should die today. I’m not asking you to find someone else to lynch, I’m always dying today anyway, what I’m asking you is just to get a head start on considering it. It’s fine if if you want to revisit overnight, I guess.
Keldeo, what do you make of KCC being virtually the only person to townread or express a "Not Scum" read on Rhand for most of Yesterday? Do you think that she was just caught dead in the water there for Day 2?
Fair; I echo you on "not really having time to ISO a bunch of people".
I have this slight paranoia tingle on you where you're pushing lynches due to mechanical reasons over behavior given that I know you're a heavily behavioral based player, buuuuuuut I don't think you're aligned with Rhand based on how you pushed him Yesterday so I feel inclined to sheep you and see where we end up (also b/c I've been feeling super lost Today, definitely wish that deadline was a little longer)
@Asta
Reconcile these two posts for me:
First you say that "Axel's last few posts with Rhand feel suspicious" and then in your next post, you agree with Axel's analysis and vote Keldeo? Especially because you moved off on Keldeo Yesterday:
Can you talk about your progression here? Going from loving Keldeo's posts, to the Rhand flip, to saying that "Axel's last few posts with Rhand feel suspicious", to voting Keldeo based on his analysis?
This mechanical discussion and stuff about KJ being a neutral is just making me bury my hands into my face. I want to keep saying this - we aren't here to lynch neutrals. We're here to lynch scum. Caring too much about a neutral is just inviting the scum to manipulate discussion. (Flashbacks to Pizza in Final Fantasy 2 Mafia where he brazenly neutral hunted during the Day and got away with it)
@fulcrum: What do you think about the points I raised against Asta earlier in this post?
I gave you an orange orb so that anyone with a blue orb can protect you. You were one of my stronger townreads going into N3.
@Keldeo - now that you're here, can you talk to me about your gloves on approach WRT me throughout most of Yesterday?
You were voting me and I think it was clear that you wanted me to be lynched, but you mostly asked me a bunch of questions rather than putting me under the gun/argued strongly for my lynch. Do you normally not make cases/convince others to lynch the person you want to lynch?
FWIW I also have a similar "trigger" ability.
I just realized I haven't done "full" claim for massclaim, so here:
I've got 3 abilities:
- Summer of Love: The first time the game transitions to summer, I gain a single use of Fairy Devotion
- Fairy Devotion: This is the BG ability. It's restricted to summer, but I can choose a target at any time.
- Cycle of Renewal: Any time the game circles back to summer, I can change my target if I so choose.
Some of that could be a result of Keldeo being from a different site.
I stand by the observations I made late D3. He spent a lot of time asking other people about Rhand instead of engaging directly, among other things.
Proph, what do you mean by putting you under the gun? I’m not really the type to bust out a wallpost case or idk, treat someone as outed when I’m not sure, and I’ve had trouble finding confident wolfreads this game. It probably makes me a worse player to not have that confidence, but it’s not really how I think about the game.
Also, DV confirmed that Preparation for Winter (my summer ability) would probably not be able to be tracked or blocked, depending On the wording of the ability.
Why does it feel like you are taking a 3rd party approach to the thread? like you are doing your own thing in isolation while seemingly oblivious to the fact that Keldeo is getting brutalized in the thread right now?
or he is town
it really is hard to understand the mindset of Keldeo, but like where are his partners in this equation?
you guys are telling me there is nothing that you like about Keldeo?
you can call this fencesitting because I am refusing to take a stance on him, but like I have my thoughts and yall have yours, I still believe it could go either way
its probably best though because then we can start working on people outside Keldeo, or he just flips wolf and we gucci
Think this is the first time this Day we've actually been able to talk and I want to do interact with him
@Keldeo: How do you generally interact with scumreads then? Just felt weird to me that instead of voting me and convincing the rest of the game to lunch your scumread you just asked me a couple of questions then pivoted elsewhere
Help me understand your playstyle; I understand that it's influenced a lot from Newcomb but that's to the extent of it
I'll give you an answer from my experience, but I will do so after he answers
you dont have to answer this anytime soon, but preferably before we end the day
if Keldeo flips town where do you go from here?
and vice versa as well?
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I doubt all of the people voting counterwagons are wolves, though that doesn't help much (one of them is Keldeo himself, the others are fulcrum and Vaimes of whom only fulcrum night be imo)
@Keldeo: sorry if you said, I probably missed it. Why do you want KCC?
I'm one of them. I do currently think that if they're only one scum between KCC and Keldeo I'm leaning towards KCC rn. I'm not super confident in that though.
The Current Season is Fall.
With 12 Alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Unvote, vote Keldeo
I generally don't like those types of posts, but I want to see what you see in it.
I more strongly don't think Rhand/Axel/KCC are w/w/w based on this post. The bulk of this post is Axel trying to get Rhand to stop townreading KCC / arguing that Rhand's reasons to townread KCC are bad, specifically instead of picking at other reads in Rhand's #300. Positionally, abstractly, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
I do like his criticism of Rhand in posts like 3419 and after, it feels like he put in the work. The mitigating circumstance here is that it came late enough in the day and he was Rhand's counterwagon so being correct on Rhand there isn't necessarily as towny, and he strikes me as the type of person who might "put in the work" in that sense as mafia too. But generally I think Axel looks decent from his side of interactions with Rhand.
This, for the record, is Rhand's response to that Axel post I quoted (plus a tidbit on Axel from the same post.) The read on Axel here feels a little bit more like appeasing someone he knows is town (specifically the downplaying of his read as "opposing views on mafia" and "mainly a gutread") than making an excuse to hop off a partner? I'm not actually sure, maybe someone else would find this helpful.
Rhand's push on Axel at EOD1 also felt... relatively serious?
As an aside, his only prior thoughts on dk up to the point of this post is "he hasn't been radiating town like he did last game" and "his frustration feels pure" and he later shuts down joining the dk wagon because his scumread Nacho was on it. Which is a bit dull in terms of I'm not entirely sure why he'd shut down that path if dk was town, unless his goal was just to be off wagon? I do think also that the bodyguard requiring three separate abilities to function the way he said it did is pretty out there to fake.
He critiques my read on Axel, but I don't think it's indicative of anything about Axel, unless you want to read into his lack of commentary on me agreeing with his apparent SR.
I actually agree with a lot of the reasoning here, which is quite lol.
Anyway, this is pretty much the only substantive post Rhand ever made on Proph's slot, which isn't great for him.
@Silver can you walk through why you think Proph shouldn't be mafia based on his role, or point to where you did if you already have? Why would mafia "need" to have a consistent disruptive, rather than a semi-disruptive that ramps up in endgame?
I had a not w/w read between KCC and Proph for their yesterDay iirc though, so it's possible this becomes moot as well if KCC is mafia.
And there's the "If this is a bus, why is he giving credit to Nacho?" point.
With less confident reads, the read is usually based off some aspect of progression or something that looks off, so I ask about it or get others' opinions on it. Or it's a POE read and I just ask questions about their worldview and perspective to see if some towniness ends up shining through and impressing me. I'm usually too easily impressed, though.
I take cues from Newcomb in philosophy/approach but I'm not much like him in practice, as you can probably tell. He's more "ivory tower," and a lot more confident and accurate - my reads are pretty awful and I second-guess myself / waver a lot. I'm more the person who asks questions so other people can make reads off the answers, or who brings a fresh perspective or something by pointing out weird stuff and giving everyone the benefit of the doubt.
Why are you trying to solve me here when I'm going to flip soon? I feel like you could be using your time in the thread for something more useful.
Like, if Proph is the only manipulative wolf role, any info/role reading is almost impossible to capitalize on. They can night kill that player but they can't really intentionally affect us with night actions
I guess they could burn the day orb handouts to give that player an orange orb and then a put a green orb on a partner that can target them consistently but trying to get it all to line up is kind of silly
The role makes way better sense as a town role or an extra wolf role on top of a stronger, more intentional manipulative imo
Vezok
Vaimes
Killjoy
(don't kill anyone above this line anytime soon, imo)
Asta (considered putting him in the higher tier tbh, it'd feel right to put him there for stuff like his approach to me, his role, and Rhand stuff I've gone into... I don't really think I can feel good about it, though, based on his volume. imo if you're going to kill him you should have a really good reason, and I don't really think the way his role activates is a good reason)
fulcrum (I do have Nacho's Rhand/fulcrum theory in the back of my mind, but I feel like some of her interactions with Rhand were not w/w and her role also seems towny lol)
Axel (some Rhand interactions I like, some have me scratching my head)
Last/Silver (haven't ISOed them, seem somewhat towny independently, Rhand talking about them is probably useful and something I'll look into if I don't die before I get to the thread. @Wisp pick it up tomorrow, if that isn't too presumptuous hehe)
dkings (should maybe be higher for role reasons, I would appreciate other opinions on Rhand's EOD1)
Proph (but probably not w/w with KCC?)
KCC
or something like that. You could probably reorder everyone between Asta and Axel and get something that feels alright. You should have a really good reason if you kill anyone in the top 3 and a good reason for like the top... 5-6, imo.
Probably part of my read on Axel and dkings stems from OMGUS. I have a somewhat out-of-line emotional reaction to their push on me (you two aren't being out-of-line, it's got more to do with my circumstances/experiences than the cases themselves) and so don't think I can view it in a way that's conducive to making a neutral read.
I think you should kill KCC soon. I don't really know where the wolves are other than not liking her things with Rhand, which might mean someone is deep but generally the consensus POE (or at least my perception of it because I don't think it's been written out) feels alright to me :/
If I get hammered before I can post again - thank you all for having me as a newcomer to this forum, sorry I couldn't do more for this slot, kill some wolves for me!
Can I ask when you started to have this thought about Proph?
@Wisp pick it up tomorrow, if that isn't too presumptuous hehe)
honestly I have been really lazy with this gamestate, but I will pick it up if I have to
Hey KCC, why would it be suspicious that I wouldn't loudly announce that I have two votes until it was absolutely necessary? Seems like a great way to get got. Honestly, I was kind of dumb to throw it down when I did. Maybe should have waited until my second vote could make a difference instead of just putting a little extra weight somewhere. Anyways, seems like a couple folks have Spring abilities that don't activate until Summer.
@Prop Yeah, I loudly grumbled about Keldeo being a blind spot multiple times. I'm sheeping. Outside of a few hard town-reads, it's kind of difficult going forward. Flippity-floppity, y'all.
I think Keldeo is putting in a lot of effort to not die here, and like the rebuttal is, "Well he roleblocked Fulcrum and didnt claim it"
but I guess to be fair the above can be said about a lot of people
Idk why we are so honed on Keldeo though
@Vaimes
ya I probably would defend him here if we are wolf buddies, but we arent, at least I'm not
Is it too late to swing?
I do kinda like how Keldeo's posting now. But, I don't know if that's in his range or not, and I just don't see how we realistically lynch anyone else.
I don't read too much into the lack of pushback for this lynch, just because it's one of two things (1) Mafia happy with the situation and not rocking the boat or (2) Mafia basically conceding it, which would not be unlike yesterday with Rhand. And the one isn't all that much more likely than the other.
If Keldeo is Town, well, I guess I'm revisiting all my assumptions. Maybe I get NK and don't have to. I think my second best ability is on tonight.
Can we CFD on KCC?
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Yeah I'm in a similar boat to Axel; moving back into college today is rough but I should be back before 11 EST.
@Lastwhisper: If Keldeo flips scum, I think I'm just gonna trust in Axelrod and Silver and the game becomes easy mode (which I certainly hope is the case here). If Keldeo flips town... the game becomes much more difficult. I'd like to take a hard look at Asta in that case - his summer abilities don't line up with either of KCC's or dkings, and the post I mentioned is something I want to press him on more.
Ohh, okay, then. So your approach to me Yesterday was something like "I'm not too sure on Proph, but he hasn't really been townie and he's low on my PoE so I'm just going to vote him and then ask him questions about his progression and worldview to see if something impresses"?
Not sure if you can do this but can I see your train of thought WRT your read on me? All I remember from Yesterday is that you voted me due to PoE and then asked me questions but I don't recall you explicitly laying out your progression. This doesn't have to be super exhaustive, fyi
Got it, ty.
I think there's time to move off on you if you are indeed town and I think getting a handle on your mindset and how you think is important.