I am very much side-eyeing fulcrum's third ability and I don't believe it's true. This is a lot of setup-gaming speaking, but I refuse to believe that the town has a passive, random cop ability along with a double voter and masons in the game. I think that is a lot of confirmation power for the town and I don't believe her.
Vote fulcrum
I'm sorry, you what? Vaimes is literally confirming that it's a real ability, are you even reading what I'm writing? Also, like, the ability isn't even strong unless used well, because it only happens once every 4 days, is only a not-mafia check, can only check people with spring abilities, and can get the same person twice. It literally only gets strong in an endgame scenario where there are no town with spring abilities left. And how does a double voter mean there can't be any cop like abilites, what.
I specifically targeted people who had passive abilities because I think in a role madness game it is pretty -EV if I end up targeting a town who actually does something, so I didn’t want to target someone unclaimed. I don’t understand why that is so weird?
@ people saying: “How do you not think "Hey, maybe I stopped the Night-kill!"”
This was a thought I had! I also had thoughts like
- Maybe the mafia went for the obvious kill of Vezok and there’s a Doctor who healed her, and obviously they wouldn’t claim because that tells us pretty much nothing about who could still be mafia. Maybe someone is a jailkeeper and blocked the kill. Maybe someone (Vezok FPSing? Someone KCC bus drove the kill into?) is secretly bulletproof and that’s why there was no kill. Maybe Wisp’s dreaming god thing from n0 stopped the kill still, somehow. Maybe something else happened with some wacky ability where fulcrum is town, I don’t want to get into a 1v1 if the result is misleading because then town might lynch me and then her when they find out I’m telling the truth, or anyone else who could have stopped the kill reveals which is really bad, and there are already more roles out than necessary right now after all those d1 claims.
- Or, maybe fulcrum is mafia and I got lucky and stopped the kill, but purely because of all the above possibilities, this result has little bearing on actually getting her killed, and she’s getting suspected by some people anyway, so there’s no need to claim it.
- I’m probably not getting nightkilled anytime soon given the claimed masons and how much pressure my slot has, so I can claim this result later
The reads post of 9 players were all people I was town or null reading, so yes, Fulcrum was not there d2.
I could've, but that's throwing away my chance to do anything. I was thinking of it this way: If you/dkings are town, blocking you definitely does nothing, which is miles better than potentially blocking a cop or doctor or something. If you/dkings mafia, it has a chance to maybe do something, like block the kill or an active ability you were lying about.
Are you ready for some wild and baseless spec? Because I sure do love me some wild and baseless spec.
Here goes.
What if there is no day-killer?
Or
What if Gemma herself was the Day-killer?
This wild and baseless spec brought to you courtesy of this Mod. announcement:
A burst of light that comes from the sun itself suddenly envelops Gemma. Gemma screams as the light burns here leaving nothing behind but Ash. As the town settles down and examines the body they find that they cannot tell who Gemma was. However after searching her place they do find evidence that tells the examiners that she was indeed town.
Gemma has been killed they were Aurora - Town.
And the simple fact that it seems a fairly large coincidence that Aurora - you know, the Sun - was burned away by a burst of light that came from...the Sun.
The way this spec works is one of two things:
(1) Gemma had some kind of self-destruct role, which died upon being targeted. Someone targeted her during the day, and poof. That seems like a pretty bad role, but maybe she had something good to go along with it?
(2) Gemma had a day-kill, attempted to use it, and it turned on her. Like the target reflected it, or something. Paranoid Gun-Owner type thing?
I scanned Gemma's posts for hints of anything along these lines, just to see. Found this:
Quote from Gemma »
as is I just wish I had a dayvig with his name on it
and that was re:Tom, fairly early on.
Also these:
i hope there's somehow a mafia vig so we can both die together tonight babe
i spent all day trying to be super town so that mafia would have to kill me and now we have like a hundred roles out and i'm never going to die literally everything i did all day was pointless
Which actually seems to hint at some kind of a Vengeful role? Maybe? Not sure how a Vengeful role fits into this.
I mean, scum Day-kill is still the simplest explanation. But, I was thinking....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
KCC, could you refresh me on why you think Rhand is town?
1) Even now, after having gone through his iso knowing his alignment, I don't think there is much that was AI in there. He's routinely lynched early, that's going to be a hit 25% of the time, and I don't think we did much more than just that -getting lucky this time. The closest things to tells were probably kjs "no one is trying to lunch Rhand D1" and Axel's look at his voting record.
2) This feels like it might have been an attempt to get me to possibly derail Rhands wagon. And it might be lucky I wasn't available, because I don't know if I would have changed anything, but I definitely would have been fighting with Axel over large parts of his case.
KCC: Do you have a compilation of Last TMIing you? Did you lay it all out in 3261?
I think I put down everything I had. I mean, before that whole conversation he hadn't really talked to or even about me much, which is kinda why that conversation even happened, but anyway, I'm over that. I don't think I was right
I specifically targeted people who had passive abilities because I think in a role madness game it is pretty -EV if I end up targeting a town who actually does something, so I didn’t want to target someone unclaimed. I don’t understand why that is so weird?
Yeah, this was a big concern of mine too when deciding my RB
@ people saying: “How do you not think "Hey, maybe I stopped the Night-kill!"”
This was a thought I had! I also had thoughts like
- Maybe the mafia went for the obvious kill of Vezok and there’s a Doctor who healed her, and obviously they wouldn’t claim because that tells us pretty much nothing about who could still be mafia. Maybe someone is a jailkeeper and blocked the kill. Maybe someone (Vezok FPSing? Someone KCC bus drove the kill into?) is secretly bulletproof and that’s why there was no kill. Maybe Wisp’s dreaming god thing from n0 stopped the kill still, somehow. Maybe something else happened with some wacky ability where fulcrum is town, I don’t want to get into a 1v1 if the result is misleading because then town might lynch me and then her when they find out I’m telling the truth, or anyone else who could have stopped the kill reveals which is really bad, and there are already more roles out than necessary right now after all those d1 claims.
- Or, maybe fulcrum is mafia and I got lucky and stopped the kill, but purely because of all the above possibilities, this result has little bearing on actually getting her killed, and she’s getting suspected by some people anyway, so there’s no need to claim it.
- I’m probably not getting nightkilled anytime soon given the claimed masons and how much pressure my slot has, so I can claim this result later
Okay, I don't think these are excuses you made up on the spot, I believe you've definitely thought about this. And if you are town who made this choice, the reasoning here isn't bad
The result is "Keldeo has not targeted Gemma this game" or something to that effect. It's pretty definitive (other than the possibility of the kill not being targeted or explicitly untraceable by my ability)
Vaimes can give me the message toNight and I can trade him that ability so he can verify it (which might just get him shot even faster but that's not an awful course of events if they shoot him toNight over Vezok)
Vaimes has a good point that the ability fulcrum has ~could be on a wolf as a partial role cop ("This player has a role, you don't know what role though") though why she would give it to Vaimes to verify doesn't make a ton of sense unless she was already planning on killing him
I already mentioned the Rhand interactions at EoD yesterday. I really thought an Rhand/KCC pairing made sense earlier in the game, but I don't think there is room for her there now as I don't think she and Keldeo are aligned. Looking back, I think Keldeo/Rhand makes a lot of sense because of things Keldeo has said. KCC/Rhand made a lot of sense because of things Rhand has said. Now I think that was probably pocketing on Rhand's part.
KCC and Axelrod have already nailed it... Keldeo not coming out and claiming the RB on fulcrum D2 is suspect as ****. Also, he has also never voted or pressured her, despite actually voicing earlier in the game (and then pointing it out again today) that Last didn't stop the N1 kill, which is even worse. Not to mention he has claimed two day RB's when there are already multiple other day abilities claimed/revealed (and 3 RB's to boot). We have multiple night investigative abilities claimed, and also Vaimes's 1-shot track if that's legit, as well as other night-activated RB's. I'm having a hard time believing there are this many day abilities that dodge ALL these night actions.
There is room for fulcrum, Silver, Proph or Asta on that team.
I'm town; vezok is town.
KCC and Axelrod are most likely town if Keldeo is scum. vezok's 3576 is right about Rhand's reads list, and I could see Axel being scum if I'm wrong about Keldeo, but he is definitely not scum with both Keldeo/Rhand.
Last has been a gut town read all game. He *might* make sense as a neutral for the whole accusing people of "playing 3p to the thread" thing, but meh.
I'm pretty sure Vaimes and/or Killjoy can only be scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/KJ. That is a deep, deep corner case. Basically, /barn vezok's 3629.
fulcrum being scum here makes sense. In this world, she probably did perform a kill that failed on N1, and Keldeo is claiming potential kill stoppage + setting up to bus her if necessary for monumental towncred, but he isn't going to push it unless it becomes obvious she's going to get lynched. The scum probably do believe Last's ability prevented the kill, but Keldeo wants to subtlely discount Last's role/towncred with the whole "pretty sure he didn't stop the kill" thing. Also, look who fulcrum isn't voting right now despite "understanding" the points against him (hint: it's Keldeo).
Silver and Proph fit mechanically. Proph is a huge question mark (plus another piece in the mess of claimed/verified RB roles), and Silver could just be flat-out lying to clear Keldeo of killing Gemma (or maybe Keldeo hasn't targeted Gemma, and Silver just knows it).
I don't think Asta is scum, but he simply isn't cleared and there is no reason why he can't be scum with these players. And the supposed mod confirmation of my protect is weird.
dk, if I was scum with keldeo, I'm pretty sure we would have planned out a fight yesterDay to prep for this claim instead of dropping it out of nowhere.
Are you ready for some wild and baseless spec? Because I sure do love me some wild and baseless spec.
Here goes.
What if there is no day-killer?
Or
What if Gemma herself was the Day-killer?
This wild and baseless spec brought to you courtesy of this Mod. announcement:
A burst of light that comes from the sun itself suddenly envelops Gemma. Gemma screams as the light burns here leaving nothing behind but Ash. As the town settles down and examines the body they find that they cannot tell who Gemma was. However after searching her place they do find evidence that tells the examiners that she was indeed town.
Gemma has been killed they were Aurora - Town.
And the simple fact that it seems a fairly large coincidence that Aurora - you know, the Sun - was burned away by a burst of light that came from...the Sun.
The way this spec works is one of two things:
(1) Gemma had some kind of self-destruct role, which died upon being targeted. Someone targeted her during the day, and poof. That seems like a pretty bad role, but maybe she had something good to go along with it?
(2) Gemma had a day-kill, attempted to use it, and it turned on her. Like the target reflected it, or something. Paranoid Gun-Owner type thing?
I scanned Gemma's posts for hints of anything along these lines, just to see. Found this:
Quote from Gemma »
as is I just wish I had a dayvig with his name on it
and that was re:Tom, fairly early on.
Also these:
i hope there's somehow a mafia vig so we can both die together tonight babe
i spent all day trying to be super town so that mafia would have to kill me and now we have like a hundred roles out and i'm never going to die literally everything i did all day was pointless
Which actually seems to hint at some kind of a Vengeful role? Maybe? Not sure how a Vengeful role fits into this.
I mean, scum Day-kill is still the simplest explanation. But, I was thinking....
I had some similar thoughts about this on D2, mostly because of how suddenly emotional/erratic Gemma's posts became that RL day shortly before D_V posted her death, but I concluded it was a little too far-fetched.
I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
I'm confused. Obviously if I had red checked fulcrum or something that was more compelling, I'd have claimed and voted and pressured her, but I don't think a roleblock on a night with no kill is tantamount to a red check at all in a role madness game. It's like a track, a result doesn't give you something you should base a push in imo. There are so many other reasons for the kill to have been stopped.
Like, if I had claimed the roleblock, what would we have gotten out of it? Regardless of her alignment, I think fulcrum would have just said she didn't carry the kill so there must've been some other thing that stopped the kill. That doesn't get us anywhere if other protectives/disruptives don't want to claim, and just outs my role unnecessarily.
And now I feel like fulcrum is probably v because Vaimes is vouching for an ability that seems much more beneficial on town than mafia (I don't really understand the utility of it as a weak rolecop, it's pretty roundabout and uninformative), and I don't think Vaimes is w with Rhand. Also she tracked me, which seems okay? (this is also true of Silver, where he's been pointing to stuff that increases chances for me and Proph to be town, and I feel like he might just cruise control into lunching the POE given his pretty decent position in the threadstate.) But then I'm not sure where the n1 kill went unless like, KJ is doctor or something. It makes me wonder whether it's possible the daykill is like a factional option to make it day instead of night, which also solves the "stapled to a role" thing? The sun flavor thing is an interesting peek but I don't think it fits anyone's flavor *but* Gemma's.
Actually V/LA until Sundayish now. Please give me the weekend at least to read Rhand.
I'm confused. Obviously if I had red checked fulcrum or something that was more compelling, I'd have claimed and voted and pressured her, but I don't think a roleblock on a night with no kill is tantamount to a red check at all in a role madness game. It's like a track, a result doesn't give you something you should base a push in imo. There are so many other reasons for the kill to have been stopped.
Like, if I had claimed the roleblock, what would we have gotten out of it? Regardless of her alignment, I think fulcrum would have just said she didn't carry the kill so there must've been some other thing that stopped the kill. That doesn't get us anywhere if other protectives/disruptives don't want to claim, and just outs my role unnecessarily.
And now I feel like fulcrum is probably v because Vaimes is vouching for an ability that seems much more beneficial on town than mafia (I don't really understand the utility of it as a weak rolecop, it's pretty roundabout and uninformative), and I don't think Vaimes is w with Rhand. Also she tracked me, which seems okay? (this is also true of Silver, where he's been pointing to stuff that increases chances for me and Proph to be town, and I feel like he might just cruise control into lunching the POE given his pretty decent position in the threadstate.) But then I'm not sure where the n1 kill went unless like, KJ is doctor or something. It makes me wonder whether it's possible the daykill is like a factional option to make it day instead of night, which also solves the "stapled to a role" thing? The sun flavor thing is an interesting peek but I don't think it fits anyone's flavor *but* Gemma's.
Actually V/LA until Sundayish now. Please give me the weekend at least to read Rhand.
KCC/me/fulcrum
Have a neighbor chat for the full phase, until the next night ends
The chat is called friendly which coincides with my dream choice which is friendship, whether it means anything more is hard to say
But given if my chat, confirmed friendlies even with the fact that I don't know for sure it does, would be wild and OP
Wait, that would be incredibly broken. We'd have a confirmed town list of you, me, kcc, killjoy and vezok. Also probably dk, maybe asta. And Vaimes has to die or will help us solve. That's game.
I mean it's been said, but the issue is not whether or not the RB/No kill is a slam dunk against fulcrum, but whether it ought to have raised your suspicions in some way that should have been evident in your posting.
But there's nothing there that I see. You ought to have, at the very least, seemed more interested in this?
That's the issue there.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
It does seems like, if her role had been stripped, that she would have been told though. You don't normally lose your abiliites but still think you have them. And she would have said something, I assume.
Maybe if it all happened instantaneously - i.e. they target, find her role, and have the option to use it right then. But this theory allows that they could have chosen to shoot someone else. And left her alive with no ability and potentially having to explain.
Could have been a "copy" effect, as opposed to a straight steal? Someone has already claimed something like that?
Ah.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
It does seems like, if her role had been stripped, that she would have been told though. You don't normally lose your abiliites but still think you have them. And she would have said something, I assume.
Maybe if it all happened instantaneously - i.e. they target, find her role, and have the option to use it right then. But this theory allows that they could have chosen to shoot someone else. And left her alive with no ability and potentially having to explain.
Could have been a "copy" effect, as opposed to a straight steal? Someone has already claimed something like that?
Ah.
If the daykiller actually did steal Gemma's role, my guess is that it happened as an effect of the kill and they went in blind. I can't imagine they would have had the option to choose someone else.
I mean it's been said, but the issue is not whether or not the RB/No kill is a slam dunk against fulcrum, but whether it ought to have raised your suspicions in some way that should have been evident in your posting.
But there's nothing there that I see. You ought to have, at the very least, seemed more interested in this?
Next thing I'm going to do is look closer at Rhand's whole wagon and how it actually went off.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
The result is "Keldeo has not targeted Gemma this game" or something to that effect. It's pretty definitive (other than the possibility of the kill not being targeted or explicitly untraceable by my ability
Not limited to "during the Night" or anything like that then.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
There's no way you block someone as town, see there's no night kill and then proceed to ignore the person you blocked for the rest of the game and start blocking elsewhere.
That's simply not the way a town works. Like at least breadcrumb that you blocked him. Also nice to see Keldeo not reading my posts and coming up with the same theory I did. I usually focus on the posts that come from confirmed town, because I know their thoughts are pure, but kinda ignore them when I'm scum cause I don't care about them (can't push them).
vote Keldeo
I was right on m1ndreaver day 1. That wagon needs more scrutiny. I'm also feeling better about KCC.
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Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy. Check out the Shop Thread
You know, and it's silly as hell, but that's the towniest Lastwhisper entrance I've seen in a while
my 3 posts? or the hi? because I will enter with Hi as either alignment, if I replace in though, it may or may not be different
my entrances are totally NAI
I have a winter night roleblock, Queen of Winter. If I successfully prevent a non-factional ability, I'll lose Queen of Winter and gain a one-shot of whatever ability I prevented
When I claimed my RB specifically only worked on nonfactional abilities, and there was a bit of discussion on that topic, you... unless I missed something, didn't mention this at all?
Did you consider CCing me? Or chiming in that you had a similar restriction on an ability?
Wall incoming, but I think there’s enough info now to provide an early reads post.
Silver:
He’s having fun in RVS and his reaction to Shadow in #14 feels pure. I would be very surprised if that comes from scum!Silver because I don’t expect him to think about a post like that as scum and craft an answer when it’s totally not necessary.
His mixed feelings from Nacho pushing him are normal.
His vote on me seems to come out of nowhere, but when he explains it, he’s voting me for what town always mislynch me for when I get mislynched: my posts feel weird.
Verdict: town
The focus of this "read" is to defuse silvers push, and devalue his vote.
Verdict: town
Lastwhisper:
He starts his own sidegame instead of playing the game at first, and then calls Nacho wolfy for his reaction to KCC, which I think was a very pure reaction. Nacho gets more flak for that though; too much to all come from scum.
He doesn’t like tom’s gimmick, but his reaction to it is better than Axelrod’s: he merely says he’s not a fan of the gimmick and that tom doesn’t give him town vibes. Ergo, he’s not calling the gimmick itself scummy, which is good.
His response to Vaimes where he uses the word “probably” talking about his tells not being AI bugs me bigtime. It looks like he jokingly wants to get rid of Vaimes’ push.
His reads in #163 don’t look like real reads. He doesn’t give a real read on both Vaimes and Silver and waffles on Nacho. The only thing there is a townread on KJ.
A lot of scum!pings there, but his later posts are suddenly way better. I like how he questions Silver’s Rhand vote and how he starts real worldbuilding and pressuring Vezok.
Verdict: lean town (if he’s scum he won’t keep up his new posting)
The purpose of this "read" is to reinforce/encourage pushes on Nacho/Vez/silver. It's being friendly with hopes of steering down wrong paths, with some doors left open to turn around later
Verdict: town
Vaimes:
He is in jokey spam-mode, which is a good sign. He knows his own meta though, and I’ve seen him make a whole town believe he’s town before.
There are a few things that trouble me: He voted Nacho, who was low hanging fruit at that point. He claims the existence of a neutral. And the things he’s accusing LW of are dependent of the alignment of the ones LW is interacting with.
I do like that he goes from Nacho to Axel now.
Verdict: Not sure. I’m going to classify him as null for now and will see where he goes with his Axel vote.
@Vaimes: talk more about Axel please. And what is your LW read right now?
There's a lot of shading in here, and hedging of the read to keep this as a potential push later. And with the later continued neutral hunting, this isn't distancing.
KCC:
Claiming a scummy role from the get-go is the townie thing to do. Scum doesn’t like locking themselves into a claim from the start. I know a few players that do things like that, but KCC doesn’t strike me as one of those, unless she is consciously changing up her game. Which is totally unnecessary because she hasn’t played that many games recently that we all know her meta.
I like her Nacho reaction and have a total mindmeld with her question to Vaimes in #200
Verdict: town
This was a good play, not coming at me cripples a good chunk of my hunting style. I wouldn't be surprised if Rhand encouraged most or all of the scumteam to play hands off with me.
The gentle push towards vaimes here really makes me think they aren't aligned.
Vezok:
Again a Nacho voter. The fact that she says he agrees with Vaimes on Nacho probably means that she isn’t scum with Vaimes. Saying later on that Nacho is scum because her posts don’t make sense points to a scummy mindset: not making sense is not a scumtell but something scum looks for when trying to get town lynched (I know that all too well). Also not a fan of the randomness of people she gives reads on.
Her vote on Mind is weak and using omgus as extra confidence is again a scummy mindset: omgus in itself is never a tell but often used by scum during fake hunting.
There’s a possible link with Fulcrum because of the way she defends her.
Verdict: scum
@Vezok: you said you gave a (non)read on LW because of the recent scumgame with him. I was also scum there. Why not give a read on me there?
This is redundant now, but between the LHF attack and this push being too hard if they were planning a mason Gambit, I had Vez as pretty lock town from this.
More relevant, the shading of the Mind vote is +scum on that slot; and the tie to fulcrum, which Rhand continues later, I had as +scum to fulcrum. Though, I'm leaning towards fulcrum now being semiclear mechanically.
Mindreaver:
I like his self-meta because it’s true. And if he does this as scum after a hiatus, that would be extremely dumb because now he has to keep up his energy level.
I mindmeld with him about Nacho and Vezok.
Verdict: town
This might be open irritation at a buddy making too big promises.
Axelrod:
The fact that he chose a semi-serious RVS target is bothersome. What is worse is that he uses KCC’s later posts to strengthen that vote. And then he calls tom’s gimmick in itself scummy.
Verdict: scum
If Axel is town, this isn't a soft target he's going after, which is dramatically different from his approach to Gemma and Tom. This also isn't so much an attack as further buddying to me and Tom, On the other hand, rhand might just think he sees a potential opening to rally me and/or Tom in this direction early.
KillJoy:
He’s very easy to read as town, and this is town!him.
I wonder if he can mimick his towngame as scum. I haven’t seen him as scum in a loooong time. But I doubt he can. His towngame is extremely pure.
Verdict: town
This is also redundant now, but I had this as straight forward pocketing, especially with the later vote interaction
Tom:
He is throwing out reads all the time, and with the songs he has to really think about them. All his reads are pretty much fleshed out. I know tom is capable of a lot as scum, but this would be too amazing to be true. I’m convinced this is town!tom.
He reminds me of that game where used animal behavior to talk about all of us, which also gave deep insight.
Verdict: town
Rhand shows here he is leaning on getting close with the strongest townies
Slothful:
Some of his questions feel like stating the obvious, but others seem like he’s trying to figure out the game. Not enough there for a read.
Verdict: null
Gemma:
Not a lot of explanation in her posts, but I liked all the votes she cast when she cast them (apart from the brief tom vote).
When she does post longer sentences, I tend to mindmeld with her (Vezok, the tom gimmick).
Verdict: town
Another townie he obviously didn't want to cross. Which justs makes it stranger that Rhand would run head first at a Town Axel.
Nacho:
I think the reaction she gave to KCC could come from either alignment, with a bigger chance of coming from town. Scum demanding claims on page 1 is pretty darn dumb, and Nacho isn’t dumb.
I like where her vote is right now.
I don’t like the mindreaver vote and the continued KCC pressure.
Verdict: lean town
Nicely calls nacho Town and not dumb, but leaves openings. Steers away from mind (which I think is buddy defense here) and also me (which is probably a mix of pocketing me and waiting to see if I'd turn on Nacho to open this option up)
Fulcrum:
Her first post feels like she distances herself from town a bit with how she talks about tom. Probably NAI though because she hasn’t been active on the site for a while.
I like how she wants Nacho to stop about KCC, which is indeed a needless distraction in thread by now.
Not much more there yet. I’ll need more to form a read.
Verdict: null
I could see this either way. The subtle shading might be keeping a mislynch open, though the "hasn't played here in a while" bit could be setting up a defense if anyone says she feels off.
Verdict: Maybe scum from just the iso? Luckily, I think her confirmed ability (and her sharing it), are almost clearing now
Asta:
Nothing really there. It bothers me that she did read the game when she posted #293 and didn’t comment on anything apart from answering a question directed at her.
Can be newb scum that doesn’t really know how to play scum.
Verdict: lean scum
If Asta is scum, why go past that first sentence? Why go out of the way to shade, but only gently where there's not much credit to be gained
From the rest of Rhands iso, I have a few notes that point towards fulcrum being a possible buddy, which I now don't think are right, a bunch that point to Mind/keld, which feels like overkill to dig up those posts at this point, two on KJ looking town, which aren't needed, and something on dk/Asta that actually might be relevant to go pull
And I got completely sidetracked there. If anyone wants to find when Asta first double voted, that'd be cool. Otherwise, this is now a note to self to do that
I actually had that same thought Axel did about Gemma being the daykiller, and there being like a deflector or something.
But the solution is the same as looking for the daykiller: finding a place for a passive/Day active deflector (though why would someone use that D1?) on one of the claimed roles.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
fulcrum is telling the truth about the ability. Passive, learn the name of a non-mafia player who takes an action at Night in spring. I have it now.
Quote from Vaimes »
Hi Proph. I am confirming her third ability. Now what?
Huh. Well, okay, then.
I still find it difficult to believe that DV would include a random cop ability in a game with masons in them, but given you can vouch for fulcrum's truthfulness, I'll
Unvote
This game, I swear. Felt pretty good about gut instincts on dkings/fulcrum/Vaimes when I was first catching up and then fulcrum town-cases Vaimes, dkings gets mod confirmed, and fulcrum has her ability usage backed up by Vaimes. Oh well, time to go back to the drawing board.
-----
These players are confirmed town by mechanics:
vezokpiraka (mason)
dkingsland967 (mod-confirmed to be bodyguard)
fulcrum (Vaimes has her cop ability)
Killjoy (fulcrum has confirmed him as town)
Assuming a four person scumteam, three out of seven players here are scum? Solid base to start off on I guess once I start looking at the Rhand interactions (which I feel like everyone said that they were going to do, no one has just put in the dirty legwork yet besides... KCC?)
@proph
Why? Because emotions and not fully trusting my own read, and PoE
That was only an answer to one of my questions. How about the other two?
(And what do you mean by emotions?)
Quote from fulcrum »
I'm sorry, you what? Vaimes is literally confirming that it's a real ability, are you even reading what I'm writing? Also, like, the ability isn't even strong unless used well, because it only happens once every 4 days, is only a not-mafia check, can only check people with spring abilities, and can get the same person twice. It literally only gets strong in an endgame scenario where there are no town with spring abilities left. And how does a double voter mean there can't be any cop like abilites, what.
Fair enough; at the time Vaimes didn't confirm it.
Keep in mind that I haven't looked at the interactions yet, but I still have a hard time believing that Keldeo is scum. His posting yesterday was A+ and I can see worlds where town!Keldeo doesn't claim his action immediately because he is new/unfamiliar with site meta (which I believe to be the crux of the case against him).
@Lastwhisper: Were the targets of you/fulcrum/KCC for your Dreaming God ability completely random? Like, you just activated the ability and all of a sudden you entered a neighbor chat with those two?
I'm sorry, you what? Vaimes is literally confirming that it's a real ability, are you even reading what I'm writing? Also, like, the ability isn't even strong unless used well, because it only happens once every 4 days, is only a not-mafia check, can only check people with spring abilities, and can get the same person twice. It literally only gets strong in an endgame scenario where there are no town with spring abilities left. And how does a double voter mean there can't be any cop like abilites, what.
I might rethink after a vote count and everything, but this feels right based on Axel's spec.
Look, I get the arguments against Keldeo and Axel, but this is such a hot garbage take from Proph. He's a better town than this.
@ people saying: “How do you not think "Hey, maybe I stopped the Night-kill!"”
This was a thought I had! I also had thoughts like
- Maybe the mafia went for the obvious kill of Vezok and there’s a Doctor who healed her, and obviously they wouldn’t claim because that tells us pretty much nothing about who could still be mafia. Maybe someone is a jailkeeper and blocked the kill. Maybe someone (Vezok FPSing? Someone KCC bus drove the kill into?) is secretly bulletproof and that’s why there was no kill. Maybe Wisp’s dreaming god thing from n0 stopped the kill still, somehow. Maybe something else happened with some wacky ability where fulcrum is town, I don’t want to get into a 1v1 if the result is misleading because then town might lynch me and then her when they find out I’m telling the truth, or anyone else who could have stopped the kill reveals which is really bad, and there are already more roles out than necessary right now after all those d1 claims.
- Or, maybe fulcrum is mafia and I got lucky and stopped the kill, but purely because of all the above possibilities, this result has little bearing on actually getting her killed, and she’s getting suspected by some people anyway, so there’s no need to claim it.
- I’m probably not getting nightkilled anytime soon given the claimed masons and how much pressure my slot has, so I can claim this result later
The reads post of 9 players were all people I was town or null reading, so yes, Fulcrum was not there d2.
Here goes.
What if there is no day-killer?
Or
What if Gemma herself was the Day-killer?
This wild and baseless spec brought to you courtesy of this Mod. announcement:
And the simple fact that it seems a fairly large coincidence that Aurora - you know, the Sun - was burned away by a burst of light that came from...the Sun.
The way this spec works is one of two things:
(1) Gemma had some kind of self-destruct role, which died upon being targeted. Someone targeted her during the day, and poof. That seems like a pretty bad role, but maybe she had something good to go along with it?
(2) Gemma had a day-kill, attempted to use it, and it turned on her. Like the target reflected it, or something. Paranoid Gun-Owner type thing?
I scanned Gemma's posts for hints of anything along these lines, just to see. Found this:
and that was re:Tom, fairly early on.
Also these:
Which actually seems to hint at some kind of a Vengeful role? Maybe? Not sure how a Vengeful role fits into this.
I mean, scum Day-kill is still the simplest explanation. But, I was thinking....
1) Even now, after having gone through his iso knowing his alignment, I don't think there is much that was AI in there. He's routinely lynched early, that's going to be a hit 25% of the time, and I don't think we did much more than just that -getting lucky this time. The closest things to tells were probably kjs "no one is trying to lunch Rhand D1" and Axel's look at his voting record.
2) This feels like it might have been an attempt to get me to possibly derail Rhands wagon. And it might be lucky I wasn't available, because I don't know if I would have changed anything, but I definitely would have been fighting with Axel over large parts of his case.
I think I put down everything I had. I mean, before that whole conversation he hadn't really talked to or even about me much, which is kinda why that conversation even happened, but anyway, I'm over that. I don't think I was right
I haven't liked my odds of guessing the kill, and we didn't have a single high priority target to shield, like on N1.
Okay, I don't think these are excuses you made up on the spot, I believe you've definitely thought about this. And if you are town who made this choice, the reasoning here isn't bad
Vaimes can give me the message toNight and I can trade him that ability so he can verify it (which might just get him shot even faster but that's not an awful course of events if they shoot him toNight over Vezok)
Vaimes has a good point that the ability fulcrum has ~could be on a wolf as a partial role cop ("This player has a role, you don't know what role though") though why she would give it to Vaimes to verify doesn't make a ton of sense unless she was already planning on killing him
Yeah I'm pretty much locked in on him here.
I already mentioned the Rhand interactions at EoD yesterday. I really thought an Rhand/KCC pairing made sense earlier in the game, but I don't think there is room for her there now as I don't think she and Keldeo are aligned. Looking back, I think Keldeo/Rhand makes a lot of sense because of things Keldeo has said. KCC/Rhand made a lot of sense because of things Rhand has said. Now I think that was probably pocketing on Rhand's part.
KCC and Axelrod have already nailed it... Keldeo not coming out and claiming the RB on fulcrum D2 is suspect as ****. Also, he has also never voted or pressured her, despite actually voicing earlier in the game (and then pointing it out again today) that Last didn't stop the N1 kill, which is even worse. Not to mention he has claimed two day RB's when there are already multiple other day abilities claimed/revealed (and 3 RB's to boot). We have multiple night investigative abilities claimed, and also Vaimes's 1-shot track if that's legit, as well as other night-activated RB's. I'm having a hard time believing there are this many day abilities that dodge ALL these night actions.
There is room for fulcrum, Silver, Proph or Asta on that team.
I'm town; vezok is town.
KCC and Axelrod are most likely town if Keldeo is scum. vezok's 3576 is right about Rhand's reads list, and I could see Axel being scum if I'm wrong about Keldeo, but he is definitely not scum with both Keldeo/Rhand.
Last has been a gut town read all game. He *might* make sense as a neutral for the whole accusing people of "playing 3p to the thread" thing, but meh.
I'm pretty sure Vaimes and/or Killjoy can only be scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/KJ. That is a deep, deep corner case. Basically, /barn vezok's 3629.
fulcrum being scum here makes sense. In this world, she probably did perform a kill that failed on N1, and Keldeo is claiming potential kill stoppage + setting up to bus her if necessary for monumental towncred, but he isn't going to push it unless it becomes obvious she's going to get lynched. The scum probably do believe Last's ability prevented the kill, but Keldeo wants to subtlely discount Last's role/towncred with the whole "pretty sure he didn't stop the kill" thing. Also, look who fulcrum isn't voting right now despite "understanding" the points against him (hint: it's Keldeo).
Silver and Proph fit mechanically. Proph is a huge question mark (plus another piece in the mess of claimed/verified RB roles), and Silver could just be flat-out lying to clear Keldeo of killing Gemma (or maybe Keldeo hasn't targeted Gemma, and Silver just knows it).
I don't think Asta is scum, but he simply isn't cleared and there is no reason why he can't be scum with these players. And the supposed mod confirmation of my protect is weird.
my question is why though? why would she do that
and I guess it does explain why her kill makes almost no sense
I had some similar thoughts about this on D2, mostly because of how suddenly emotional/erratic Gemma's posts became that RL day shortly before D_V posted her death, but I concluded it was a little too far-fetched.
I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
maybe thats me though
that just seems so bad
vote: Keldeo
I willing to leave my tinfoil team for the likes of that
It's not.
Like, if I had claimed the roleblock, what would we have gotten out of it? Regardless of her alignment, I think fulcrum would have just said she didn't carry the kill so there must've been some other thing that stopped the kill. That doesn't get us anywhere if other protectives/disruptives don't want to claim, and just outs my role unnecessarily.
And now I feel like fulcrum is probably v because Vaimes is vouching for an ability that seems much more beneficial on town than mafia (I don't really understand the utility of it as a weak rolecop, it's pretty roundabout and uninformative), and I don't think Vaimes is w with Rhand. Also she tracked me, which seems okay? (this is also true of Silver, where he's been pointing to stuff that increases chances for me and Proph to be town, and I feel like he might just cruise control into lunching the POE given his pretty decent position in the threadstate.) But then I'm not sure where the n1 kill went unless like, KJ is doctor or something. It makes me wonder whether it's possible the daykill is like a factional option to make it day instead of night, which also solves the "stapled to a role" thing? The sun flavor thing is an interesting peek but I don't think it fits anyone's flavor *but* Gemma's.
Actually V/LA until Sundayish now. Please give me the weekend at least to read Rhand.
I did too
This is why I claim ***** upfront.
I don't think he was asking us.
... Thanks lmao
Have a neighbor chat for the full phase, until the next night ends
The chat is called friendly which coincides with my dream choice which is friendship, whether it means anything more is hard to say
But given if my chat, confirmed friendlies even with the fact that I don't know for sure it does, would be wild and OP
Wait, that would be incredibly broken. We'd have a confirmed town list of you, me, kcc, killjoy and vezok. Also probably dk, maybe asta. And Vaimes has to die or will help us solve. That's game.
But there's nothing there that I see. You ought to have, at the very least, seemed more interested in this?
That's the issue there.
Maybe if it all happened instantaneously - i.e. they target, find her role, and have the option to use it right then. But this theory allows that they could have chosen to shoot someone else. And left her alive with no ability and potentially having to explain.
Could have been a "copy" effect, as opposed to a straight steal? Someone has already claimed something like that?
Ah.
If the daykiller actually did steal Gemma's role, my guess is that it happened as an effect of the kill and they went in blind. I can't imagine they would have had the option to choose someone else.
Also,
That's simply not the way a town works. Like at least breadcrumb that you blocked him. Also nice to see Keldeo not reading my posts and coming up with the same theory I did. I usually focus on the posts that come from confirmed town, because I know their thoughts are pure, but kinda ignore them when I'm scum cause I don't care about them (can't push them).
vote Keldeo
I was right on m1ndreaver day 1. That wagon needs more scrutiny. I'm also feeling better about KCC.
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
The Current Season is Fall.
With 12 Alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Unvote, vote Keldeo
L-2, don’t lunch him til Sunday.
Think these two posts argue against Keldeo, Last w/w.
When I claimed my RB specifically only worked on nonfactional abilities, and there was a bit of discussion on that topic, you... unless I missed something, didn't mention this at all?
Did you consider CCing me? Or chiming in that you had a similar restriction on an ability?
The focus of this "read" is to defuse silvers push, and devalue his vote.
Verdict: town
The purpose of this "read" is to reinforce/encourage pushes on Nacho/Vez/silver. It's being friendly with hopes of steering down wrong paths, with some doors left open to turn around later
Verdict: town
?
There's a lot of shading in here, and hedging of the read to keep this as a potential push later. And with the later continued neutral hunting, this isn't distancing.
Verdict: not scum
This was a good play, not coming at me cripples a good chunk of my hunting style. I wouldn't be surprised if Rhand encouraged most or all of the scumteam to play hands off with me.
The gentle push towards vaimes here really makes me think they aren't aligned.
This is redundant now, but between the LHF attack and this push being too hard if they were planning a mason Gambit, I had Vez as pretty lock town from this.
More relevant, the shading of the Mind vote is +scum on that slot; and the tie to fulcrum, which Rhand continues later, I had as +scum to fulcrum. Though, I'm leaning towards fulcrum now being semiclear mechanically.
?
This might be open irritation at a buddy making too big promises.
Verdict: scum
If Axel is town, this isn't a soft target he's going after, which is dramatically different from his approach to Gemma and Tom. This also isn't so much an attack as further buddying to me and Tom, On the other hand, rhand might just think he sees a potential opening to rally me and/or Tom in this direction early.
Verdict: maybe scum
This is also redundant now, but I had this as straight forward pocketing, especially with the later vote interaction
Verdict: town
Rhand shows here he is leaning on getting close with the strongest townies
I didn't get anything from this
Another townie he obviously didn't want to cross. Which justs makes it stranger that Rhand would run head first at a Town Axel.
Nicely calls nacho Town and not dumb, but leaves openings. Steers away from mind (which I think is buddy defense here) and also me (which is probably a mix of pocketing me and waiting to see if I'd turn on Nacho to open this option up)
I could see this either way. The subtle shading might be keeping a mislynch open, though the "hasn't played here in a while" bit could be setting up a defense if anyone says she feels off.
Verdict: Maybe scum from just the iso? Luckily, I think her confirmed ability (and her sharing it), are almost clearing now
If Asta is scum, why go past that first sentence? Why go out of the way to shade, but only gently where there's not much credit to be gained
Verdict: lean town
That's my coloring over his list
And I got completely sidetracked there. If anyone wants to find when Asta first double voted, that'd be cool. Otherwise, this is now a note to self to do that
But the solution is the same as looking for the daykiller: finding a place for a passive/Day active deflector (though why would someone use that D1?) on one of the claimed roles.
Still probably a scum for NL d1.
KCC/Keldeo/Rhand/? Fits in with my reads.
Huh. Well, okay, then.
I still find it difficult to believe that DV would include a random cop ability in a game with masons in them, but given you can vouch for fulcrum's truthfulness, I'll
Unvote
This game, I swear. Felt pretty good about gut instincts on dkings/fulcrum/Vaimes when I was first catching up and then fulcrum town-cases Vaimes, dkings gets mod confirmed, and fulcrum has her ability usage backed up by Vaimes. Oh well, time to go back to the drawing board.
-----
These players are confirmed town by mechanics:
vezokpiraka (mason)
dkingsland967 (mod-confirmed to be bodyguard)
fulcrum (Vaimes has her cop ability)
Killjoy (fulcrum has confirmed him as town)
Which leaves uhhhh
Silvercrys
Lastwhisper
Vaimes
KittyCupCake
Keldeo
Axelrod
Asta
Assuming a four person scumteam, three out of seven players here are scum? Solid base to start off on I guess once I start looking at the Rhand interactions (which I feel like everyone said that they were going to do, no one has just put in the dirty legwork yet besides... KCC?)
(And what do you mean by emotions?)
Fair enough; at the time Vaimes didn't confirm it.
Keep in mind that I haven't looked at the interactions yet, but I still have a hard time believing that Keldeo is scum. His posting yesterday was A+ and I can see worlds where town!Keldeo doesn't claim his action immediately because he is new/unfamiliar with site meta (which I believe to be the crux of the case against him).
@Lastwhisper: Were the targets of you/fulcrum/KCC for your Dreaming God ability completely random? Like, you just activated the ability and all of a sudden you entered a neighbor chat with those two?