Now, I am ******* tired, but a few thoughts based on this fresh revelation (and some other things):
Keldeo and Axelrod go up up up in towncred with this flip. More Keldeo than Axelrod, but Keldeo was the only person that KCC pushed in any significant way and I'm fairly confident that she wouldn't do that "haha I have a scummy role" and then proceed to push no one but her partner. Wrt Axelrod, I think if he was scum then the day probably would have turned out differently than "bus partner for 70% of the day then when she's actually get lynched wring my hands and do nothing".
Vaimes and DK both lose a bit of stock. With DK, don't know who pointed it out, but KCC not jumping on him is a very odd move if she's scum here - unless they're partners. Vaimes is one that I'm more conflicted about because I know there's bias there (still hate his push on me, surprise, surprise), but him dismissing the cases on both KCC and DK and using that as a reason to ignore the wagons is terrible.
And what bugs me here, is, Nacho is bluffing his KCC is scum counter-claim, yes? He is lying. And, okay, maybe you can lie if you think you've got a read and/or it's going to make something happen, but this post is, like, another lie on top of the first one. He's making these reads on Keldeo and myself based on his own bluff that KCC is flipping scum.
And I just don't like the bravado of this post, going beyond just telling us that KCC is scum, but giving these conclusions on Keldeo and me (and counter-conclusions on Vaimes and DK I guess) based on the certainty of her flip - the whole "with this flip" certainty he starts the post with.
Yes, you can say that, well, he's still believing here that she will flip scum and so this represents his actual feelings under those assumptions. But this is just not a post I would make - if I was doing a gambit - before I actually had a flip. It feels irresponsible, and, again, too much bravado.
Maybe that's just too much me and no one else thinks this way.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Sigh @Vaimes.
Can you just die please?
You know very well why I am scumreading you. I explained it. I don’t think there is a single possible town motivation to target Vez.
Okay I will say that Keldeo actually voted to lynch his partner Day 1 in the Wonka game, but Sloth had kinda gunked up and everyone piled on him towards the end, so it was kind of the best move? He's willing to lynch even his partner as scum, and there wasn't really a better move there since trying to drum up a different wagon would likely look more suspicious under the circumstances after the fact.
Trying to reread and figure out what that weird tickle in the back of my head was about in comparing Keldeo's wonka!scum to now. I think there's just some general tone that's similar but not actually alignment indicative. Scum!Keldeo actually put in some work to paint me as his partner's partner. I dunno, until we have dead scum, I don't think I can realistically put something down on him. This game is just.......... way too different from wonka for me to try and use that as a backboard to keep steady on. Also he never made like 20 posts in a row like he did just now, which could just be an activity thing or could just be how DLP collapses posts together! I dunno! Sticking Keldeo in my "praying he's town because massive blindspot" category for now. Hope my bad POE helps in this case.
I certainly wouldn't ding Keldeo for not giving reads on the first 1000 posts in the thread. Most posts I've only had time to read once, twice on a good day. Couldn't really give great reads on anyone. Mostly feelings.
That whole mega dramatic counter-claim business that made NO SENSE TO DO feels way too uncontrolled for nacho to be scum... Unless like. That was the point? Make Nacho seem like a loose cannon?
My problem right now is I can't analyze and post fast enough for anything meaningful to form. I didn't really start forming halfway decent reads in Wonka!mafia until we had, what, 8 people. So I'm throwing out basic feelings and I've not really got much digging to back it up. Urgh. Anyways.
I wouldn't mind being vendored but most of my stuff is worse than KCC's roleblock and having it confirmed by someone else that it can't stop "factional abilities" would be good
And yeah Nacho has wolf equity but I'm relegating him to a tinfoil read right now
He snowed me completely in Horsemen (unless I'm misremembering) so I'm not really willing to say "oh yeah, he's totally clear, never a wolf" but at the same time most of the game is a lot wolfier than he is
I do think trying a refuge in audacity to get town pants like fake CCing KCC then fessing up immediately isn't out if his wolf range, the most bizarre thing to me right now is that he wanted the no lunch unless he's exactly a wolf with KCC (but the No Lunch was in response to the Axel wagon iirc so like.... Idk)
Sigh @Vaimes.
Can you just die please?
You know very well why I am scumreading you. I explained it. I don’t think there is a single possible town motivation to target Vez.
Sigh @Vaimes.
Can you just die please?
You know very well why I am scumreading you. I explained it. I don’t think there is a single possible town motivation to target Vez.
You’re basing my motivations on impossible scenarios as if it’s gospel. How about you die?
And his wagon shifts around some but doesn't actually lose traction until Gemma gets killed. She shifts around a bit, then fulcrum gets on, Lastwhisper shifts to dkingsland, Vaimes shifts to dkingsland, Gemma gets back on, then dies. Which puts us here:
After Gemma dies, a bunch of dkingsland voters shift to No Lunch, then Keldeo and Killjoy unvote Axel back to back, killing the wagon and leaving us with this:
So... the no lunch actually seems to have been a reaction to dkingsland claiming and Gemma dying, not the Axelrod wagon (dkingsland was Axelrod's counterwagon). It's possible some of those votes were wolves trying to avoid responsibility for the lunch in a sea of mislunches but I can't see much other good reason for them to abandon the wagon and not find a new one (only Axelrod came from somewhere other than the dkingsland wagon).
None of the no lunch voters other than Lastwhisper ended up on KCC at the EoD vote count so that kind of makes sense in, like, KCC + partners wanted to no lunch worlds like tom keeps saying I guess. Keldeo had KCC at L-1 and unvoted in #2163, making the no lunch much more likely. [KCC/Keldeo/Rhand/+1] or something if she's a wolf?
In KCC!town worlds... man, idk. I still think we're living here but game is harder if she is. Keldeo unvoting as a wolf is weird but he might have figured a no lunch isn't terribly bad for them. tom/last could be wolves on her but her wagon at EoD is super clean otherwise with wolves doing ~nothing with their votes. Something like [Rhand/Proph or Keldeo or Both/last or tom/+1?] maybe.
-------------
Rhand insisting I'm villagery but with a weaker read because I think his posts are weird strikes me as strange. Idk.
@Keldeo my read there hasn't really evolved, no. He fits on a lot of teams (I'd even hazard that he's possible partners with Nacho and their interactions have been theater) and his posting is, like, reasonable but I don't think it's out of his range. Possible I'm tunneling but I haven't really seen anything that makes me reconsider.
On the one hand trying to get a masonizer and clear himself is very on brand
On the other I'm not super sure he wasn't trying to shut the Mason chat down and when it didn't work he tried to buy towncred by claiming, and if he actually thinks his role is bad he should've been fine getting bad abilities in exchange for making town reads bulletproof?
I dunno he's talked about it a bunch I'm just not quite getting there I guess
im firmly at NAI for target choice after some thought.
If hes town, he could have used it better but like you say... this was silly but on brand
If hes scum, im not sure it matters what he thought would happen he just targeted vez for some kind of town cred. Whether he thought hed get a neighborhood or just thought he'd get positive vibes from a mason or even <the abilities are fake so he was hoping he wouldnt have to actually trade yet>
Think it was probably a below average target as town and ~average if hes a wolf.
Certainly squarely in both ranges
I believe him when he says he thought he might get a masonizer ability from Vezok. If he was scum, he would have been scared of the ability then not working with Vezok knowing he has it, thus outing him.
except if he got something that outed him somehow he could just not claim?
And i think the chances of that happening anyway are pretty remote. Like, if i think of every way for a mason role to be worded... most have no interaction with vaimes role, some might give him a new neighborhood or access to the one that already exists, and only fringe cases would backfire at all.
Vezok said she would have known he was getting what she gave up. And Vaimes was not in a great position yesterday, was probably expecting to have to claim today or tomorrow. If he's scum, he would have been extra nervous about. The plausibility of it isn't important, what's important is whether Vaimes' thought it would happen.
i dont think theres any chance scumvaimes thought that would happen, so i guess ima need you to tell me why you believe him?
regarding the whole Vaimes thing, I'm kinda falling in favour of town him. I'd rather focus on Rhand a bit.
just for the record, i think fulcrum is the only better vaimes reader here than me and if she is town her read, once explained, should have some weight
This carousel of Last yells at people to scumread me > people scumread me > Last gets excited > someone says I’m town > Last is like wtf why > pressure lessens > Last sulks.
It’s happened like four or five times this game.
whats it make you think of last?
This is, like, game 6 of that happening yeah?
I change my mind easily re: votes if I have no strong scumreads. If thread flow wanted to lunch someone and I was here to change my vote, I would have. It seems like some think I was dead-ser on a No Lunch and wouldn’t have budged, I don’t know where that assumption is coming from.
do you think its an unfair assumption? You left your vote on "no lynch"
I also kinda think mechanics are getting in the way of me being able to have like. Normal reads I feel good about. Super bleh.
how many of your reads are mechanical?
I count 5 completely unclaimed, and 6 whos claims/roles dont effect my read in any meaningful way.
Like... sure vezok/dkings/kcc/asta. Who else?
When I have said a million times that I had no time to re-evaluate my vote? Uh, yeah. Plopping my vote on Axel or Nacho would not have changed anything.
I mean in general, mechanics heavy games kinda makes us focus more on roles than just playing mafia. Which, you know, is one of the reasons the topic of No Lunch came up.
i guess you can keep saying that and i can keep saying that... yes its a pretty huge difference?
Literally the difference between trying to lynch scum and not?
But the second question here is more important to me. You said you cant get normal reads because mechanics. Which of your reads are being effected by mechanics?
What are you focusing on thats stopping you?
Oh, right, Proph is in this game too. He can die I guess?
I might iso Keldeo, right now he's just kind of here and posting a bunch and I think he has villagery tone but Mindreaver was pretty bad and Keldeo fits on a lot of teams
proph i want to kill just a little bit more every time he delays
With you on keldeo. If hes scum hes played perfectly fine replacing in, but hes never wanted to move forward. Its more than just the unvote
And i think we might have had an all town wagon on mind, who was scummy af
I forgot to add that I'm frustrated by lack of useful stuff too. I'm stuck in a place where I just have a mass of town leans and a mushy mass of other players. And I'm just not making the time to figure it out. Trying to kick myself into gear but I just don't have it right now.
Well, silly seems wrong. You can disagree, but really only if you're strongly scum-reading him. Otherwise Mason is kind of exactly what you would want in this spot.
I want someone I trust as town + someone whose reads I trust. Do I trust vezok's process as town? No.
Then why are you wasting your time telling us we shouldn't have elected him rather than trying to make sure Vezok lynches correctly?
Typing "that election is dumb" takes less than 30 seconds. Rereading the entire game and putting my conclusions in a palatable format takes a hell of a lot longer than that.
Also, tom, it doesn't matter that much given where my thoughts are but I'd still like to know what you meant by "the conversation dkings and Axel would have had" about you.
thats
Difficult to explain
But the conversation would be about me gimmicking. How to react to it, what to do with me etc.
The speed at which dkings reached tiers with me would have come faster with someone else annoyed by me in similar ways and going through it together
I wanna say he gets to "whatever ill just ignore him" about a week earlier if he had a chat with axel
Okay, so I don't think that misinterpretation in the posts Vaimes mentioned that KCC linked in itself makes them not partners, because it seems like just... a misinterpretation of something cryptic that Vaimes said, that I think could have happened even if they were wolves together. Even knowing his role "You can trust me" is like kind of a stretch to associate with it.
But there was this exchange Vaimes had with me about her that I actually think is pretty not partnery:
There isn't much to say. She softclaimed a scummy ability, and I kind of want to see what it is. Can't do that if she's dead. And I don't have a strong enough scumread on her to push it.
Quote from Keldeo »
Sorry, huh? Wouldn't she claim the role before being lynched, or it'd flip if and when she did?
I want to see her role while she is still alive, so waiting for her to flip is kind of counter-productive.
This was before she claimed, and I feel that the way he danced around the train of thought "I want to see her role so she needs to be alive" (which is a bit mystifying without the context of his role) would be less likely to occur to him as a thought to fake if they're w/w, because Vaimes would already know her role.
Like... I guess Vaimes' role would be a convenient excuse as a KCC partner to hold off on voting her - pretending to think about pseudo-rolecopping her. But I just feel like it's harder to arrive at that line of thought if he already knew her role. Does this make sense?
this is kind of interesting as an unalignment
But my first reaction is it means vaimes process day 1 was "i want the scumsided role"
Anyway, enough about me. I want to target Last, but if someone else wants to give me something I’m open to proposals.
Also back to wanting to kill Nacho.
ive thought a little more
Best ive come up with are
>kcc: prove her roleblock specifically doesnt hit factional kills seems solid?
>dkings: dont think scum has a bodyguard, so possibly a cop shot. and lets a theoretical townvaimes die for someone else
Targeting last seems moderately useless since i think im just believing he has approximately that ability regardless of alignment and it does nothing for you?
Now, I am ******* tired, but a few thoughts based on this fresh revelation (and some other things):
Keldeo and Axelrod go up up up in towncred with this flip. More Keldeo than Axelrod, but Keldeo was the only person that KCC pushed in any significant way and I'm fairly confident that she wouldn't do that "haha I have a scummy role" and then proceed to push no one but her partner. Wrt Axelrod, I think if he was scum then the day probably would have turned out differently than "bus partner for 70% of the day then when she's actually get lynched wring my hands and do nothing".
Vaimes and DK both lose a bit of stock. With DK, don't know who pointed it out, but KCC not jumping on him is a very odd move if she's scum here - unless they're partners. Vaimes is one that I'm more conflicted about because I know there's bias there (still hate his push on me, surprise, surprise), but him dismissing the cases on both KCC and DK and using that as a reason to ignore the wagons is terrible.
And what bugs me here, is, Nacho is bluffing his KCC is scum counter-claim, yes? He is lying. And, okay, maybe you can lie if you think you've got a read and/or it's going to make something happen, but this post is, like, another lie on top of the first one. He's making these reads on Keldeo and myself based on his own bluff that KCC is flipping scum.
And I just don't like the bravado of this post, going beyond just telling us that KCC is scum, but giving these conclusions on Keldeo and me (and counter-conclusions on Vaimes and DK I guess) based on the certainty of her flip - the whole "with this flip" certainty he starts the post with.
Yes, you can say that, well, he's still believing here that she will flip scum and so this represents his actual feelings under those assumptions. But this is just not a post I would make - if I was doing a gambit - before I actually had a flip. It feels irresponsible, and, again, too much bravado.
Maybe that's just too much me and no one else thinks this way.
i kinda get what youre saying maybe?
He was already pushing kcc nothing stopping him from making associatives before counterclaiming
But this is like a switch turned on this is real now but
Nothing changed really to make that switch flip? Like, after her rvs soft her claim wasnt that far from what i expected
So yeah its kinda weird
Think Axel's point is that if Nacho knew he was lying/reaction baiting like he kind of claimed later and KCC might not be a wolf that it doesn't make any sense to try to push a worldview based on KCC being a wolf so strongly since the whole point was to see how she reacted to being counterclaimed and not that he actually thought she was a wolf because of her role
I am Sycorax, Town Illusionist, got the ability to swap seasons. So it's summer now, will be spring tomorrow. Is only a one-shot power so am now effectively a VT.
The reason why I was initially skeptical of her role based on mine is because my role has two uses - **** up a scum JOAT, benefit a town JOAT. My big expectation was scum JOAT since it's harder for my role to have positive synergy with people I can't talk to without letting baddies know. That on its own is obviously not enough to counterclaim.
That small niggle + scumread blew up into "I'm willing to take a leap on this and lie" came with the description of her roleblock - I didn't trust the "it blocks scum but not vig and maybe SK" and that read like a scum slip based on DV calling out the scum kill as "the night kill" in scum role PMs and "all kills" in town ones.
I was willing to take this risk because it seemed like there weren't a whole lot of people hard townreading Kitty anyways + I was hopeful I'd be able to talk myself out of getting mislynched the next day without a significant fight.
There are a couple of reasons I thought that playing up the counterclaim was a stronger move than ignoring the role stuff and hammering in the scum slip and just push for the lynch.
1) thought it would be more polarizing, leave for a more interesting situation for scum and town to react to (in particular, felt the chances of people having strongly and obviously alignment indicative reactions went up)
2) the chances of me drawing a kill over outed Mason jump up significantly if I'm correct (which I was pretty confident that I was, just not 95%).
To Kitty, I'm sorry for lying about my role to get you rush lynched. I'm thankful you had the opportunity to make the last couple of posts that you did and applaud you for the apparently ridiculously cool headed style.
Though I guess here what he's representing is that he really thought she was going to flip red and lied to CC her to try to push the lunch in faster?
It's been bothering me too but I can't really put my finger on it
Now, I am ******* tired, but a few thoughts based on this fresh revelation (and some other things):
Keldeo and Axelrod go up up up in towncred with this flip. More Keldeo than Axelrod, but Keldeo was the only person that KCC pushed in any significant way and I'm fairly confident that she wouldn't do that "haha I have a scummy role" and then proceed to push no one but her partner. Wrt Axelrod, I think if he was scum then the day probably would have turned out differently than "bus partner for 70% of the day then when she's actually get lynched wring my hands and do nothing".
Vaimes and DK both lose a bit of stock. With DK, don't know who pointed it out, but KCC not jumping on him is a very odd move if she's scum here - unless they're partners. Vaimes is one that I'm more conflicted about because I know there's bias there (still hate his push on me, surprise, surprise), but him dismissing the cases on both KCC and DK and using that as a reason to ignore the wagons is terrible.
And what bugs me here, is, Nacho is bluffing his KCC is scum counter-claim, yes? He is lying. And, okay, maybe you can lie if you think you've got a read and/or it's going to make something happen, but this post is, like, another lie on top of the first one. He's making these reads on Keldeo and myself based on his own bluff that KCC is flipping scum.
And I just don't like the bravado of this post, going beyond just telling us that KCC is scum, but giving these conclusions on Keldeo and me (and counter-conclusions on Vaimes and DK I guess) based on the certainty of her flip - the whole "with this flip" certainty he starts the post with.
Yes, you can say that, well, he's still believing here that she will flip scum and so this represents his actual feelings under those assumptions. But this is just not a post I would make - if I was doing a gambit - before I actually had a flip. It feels irresponsible, and, again, too much bravado.
Maybe that's just too much me and no one else thinks this way.
the gambit itself already had an excess of irresponsibility and bravado that i feel are outside of most people's ranges - adding a couple of degrees on irresponsibility and bravado on top of that isn't really that wild.
@silver, to clarify, the lie was that I was CC'ing. i wasn't reaction testing kitty - i just thought the responses from kitty's scum partners as i nailed her on the CC would be more interesting than the responses from her scum partners as i railed her into oblivion with normal people arguments, and thought i'd be more likely to die if i downed scum by CC'ing them as opposed to downing them by normal people arguments.
@tom, the switch flip that you're missing is the part where i thought she scumslipped based on her wording of the NK.
so counterclaiming kitty as scum and bussing the ***** out of her is not out of my scumrange as scum
counterclaiming kitty as scum and retracting the counterclaim halfway through is... not something i'd do as scum simply because it torpedos my endgame chances. i don't have the most ungodly greatest scumgame ever BUT i do very genuinely love playing scum and, as a result, i generally play for endgame, whether it is me going to endgame (usually), or, very rarely, my scumpartner going for endgame. the move is sloppy and one that will predictably get me a lot of hate and if i'm scum here i would rather at least get the KCC mislynch and play dumb or get the KCC bus and cash in on towncred for a partner that wasn't playing that great anyways.
and yes i know that no one here knows me well enough for that to be useful now that Gemma is dead, so... future reference?
I'm honestly kinda demotivated to do much today because I can't start a wagon toDay. Not a huge fan of the King mechanic today.
Hm. Lets try this:
Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Vaimes, Lastwhisper, KittyCupCake, Grapefruit2,Rhand, dkingsland967: If Vezok didn't claim mason, who would you have voted for King?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Theres a part of me that wants to keep waiting to see what people put out there voluntarily and who just does nothing and lets vez shoot but
Think id rather just have a record of thoughts
Would like everyone to give their top two shot choices
I know a few that have been said fairly recently:
I'm pretty out of it. Can't really form coherent thoughts.
Nacho makes good points in her favour, but the fact that she is the one saying it makes less likely to be true.
I'm also thinking if shouldn't just shoot KCC to reveal stuff about the day 1 wagons.
You are getting to chat about this with your buddy, right?
It is fair to ask who I would shoot, so, I'm thinking about that.
As of this moment I'm probably on Vaimes. I still need to do some reviewing, especially Rhand/Fulcrum/Proph(slot). I thought had a good read on Fulcrum, but that was largely based on one post, and it's probably not a good idea to base a read on one whole post. I'm not crazy about Asta's posting either, but there's the whole newbie thing going on there. Keldeo and Nacho both have made posts I liked and posts that bugged me, but they are probably landing more in the undecided range than the actively wish death on range. Probably would not campaign for anyone else today, unless I see/remember something else more sinister.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I'm honestly kinda demotivated to do much today because I can't start a wagon toDay. Not a huge fan of the King mechanic today.
Hm. Lets try this:
Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Vaimes, Lastwhisper, KittyCupCake, Grapefruit2,Rhand, dkingsland967: If Vezok didn't claim mason, who would you have voted for King?
Probably you. Maybe Nacho to see who would support him.
Theres a part of me that wants to keep waiting to see what people put out there voluntarily and who just does nothing and lets vez shoot but
Think id rather just have a record of thoughts
Would like everyone to give their top two shot choices
I know a few that have been said fairly recently:
regarding the whole Vaimes thing, I'm kinda falling in favour of town him. I'd rather focus on Rhand a bit.
just for the record, i think fulcrum is the only better vaimes reader here than me and if she is town her read, once explained, should have some weight
i guess you can keep saying that and i can keep saying that... yes its a pretty huge difference?
Literally the difference between trying to lynch scum and not?
But the second question here is more important to me. You said you cant get normal reads because mechanics. Which of your reads are being effected by mechanics?
What are you focusing on thats stopping you?
Doesn't make much of a difference to me if the outcome is the same. Sorry to disappoint, but you seem to be losing touch with how I actually think versus how you expect me to think. My play has sucked this entire year, so I don't fully blame you.
I said mechanics were getting in the way of reads that I felt good about, not that I couldn't get normal reads at all. In a vacuum people usually shy away from lunching PRs, especially if they might be useful later. So a game full of that is gonna be hard, at least for me, because I hate making those kinds of decisions, and I tend to cave towards not lunching PRs.
Best ive come up with are
>kcc: prove her roleblock specifically doesnt hit factional kills seems solid?
>dkings: dont think scum has a bodyguard, so possibly a cop shot. and lets a theoretical townvaimes die for someone else
Targeting last seems moderately useless since i think im just believing he has approximately that ability regardless of alignment and it does nothing for you?
I just think his role is cool, and if I wasn't being directed, then I was just gonna dick around and take one of his seven hundred abilities. But yeah, dk and KCC are practical choices, and I briefly thought about targeting dk first.
I'm honestly kinda demotivated to do much today because I can't start a wagon toDay. Not a huge fan of the King mechanic today.
Hm. Lets try this:
Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Vaimes, Lastwhisper, KittyCupCake, Grapefruit2,Rhand, dkingsland967: If Vezok didn't claim mason, who would you have voted for King?
You, Silver, or maybe fulcrum. You because townread, though I don't usually trust your scumreads that much. Silver because I really want him to do something big. fulcrum because she's a good shot when she's town + making her justify the kill.
i dont think theres any chance scumvaimes thought that would happen, so i guess ima need you to tell me why you believe him?
Don't understand your specific objection.
its not so much a specific objection
Just like
Its such a farfetched thing for him to believe that id like to hear why you believe him strongly enough to base a read off
By shot are you referring to where I want vezok to Lynch Tom? I'd prefer she make that call herself. That was the whole reason I was ok with her being King today.
I actually regret that we voted so quickly because the conversation about who we'd vote ignoring vezok might have been as telling as votal analysis.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
And I just don't like the bravado of this post, going beyond just telling us that KCC is scum, but giving these conclusions on Keldeo and me (and counter-conclusions on Vaimes and DK I guess) based on the certainty of her flip - the whole "with this flip" certainty he starts the post with.
Yes, you can say that, well, he's still believing here that she will flip scum and so this represents his actual feelings under those assumptions. But this is just not a post I would make - if I was doing a gambit - before I actually had a flip. It feels irresponsible, and, again, too much bravado.
Maybe that's just too much me and no one else thinks this way.
Can you just die please?
You know very well why I am scumreading you. I explained it. I don’t think there is a single possible town motivation to target Vez.
Trying to reread and figure out what that weird tickle in the back of my head was about in comparing Keldeo's wonka!scum to now. I think there's just some general tone that's similar but not actually alignment indicative. Scum!Keldeo actually put in some work to paint me as his partner's partner. I dunno, until we have dead scum, I don't think I can realistically put something down on him. This game is just.......... way too different from wonka for me to try and use that as a backboard to keep steady on. Also he never made like 20 posts in a row like he did just now, which could just be an activity thing or could just be how DLP collapses posts together! I dunno! Sticking Keldeo in my "praying he's town because massive blindspot" category for now. Hope my bad POE helps in this case.
I certainly wouldn't ding Keldeo for not giving reads on the first 1000 posts in the thread. Most posts I've only had time to read once, twice on a good day. Couldn't really give great reads on anyone. Mostly feelings.
That whole mega dramatic counter-claim business that made NO SENSE TO DO feels way too uncontrolled for nacho to be scum... Unless like. That was the point? Make Nacho seem like a loose cannon?
My problem right now is I can't analyze and post fast enough for anything meaningful to form. I didn't really start forming halfway decent reads in Wonka!mafia until we had, what, 8 people. So I'm throwing out basic feelings and I've not really got much digging to back it up. Urgh. Anyways.
I know you don't want my RB, but it's way more productive than getting some random effect from last
It's not just you. That's one of several things that I feel is off from EoD
He snowed me completely in Horsemen (unless I'm misremembering) so I'm not really willing to say "oh yeah, he's totally clear, never a wolf" but at the same time most of the game is a lot wolfier than he is
I do think trying a refuge in audacity to get town pants like fake CCing KCC then fessing up immediately isn't out if his wolf range, the most bizarre thing to me right now is that he wanted the no lunch unless he's exactly a wolf with KCC (but the No Lunch was in response to the Axel wagon iirc so like.... Idk)
Ehh you really want to give a RB to Vaimes?
Well at least he will have to explain his target because we’ll know he has it, but ehh...
Actually I know what I’m gonna do with it. Stay tuned.
When Nacho changed the season to Summer and retracted his counterclaim, the votal looked like this:
Axelrod (3): Vaimes (#979), Killjoy (#1525), Lastwhisper (#1651)
KittyCupCake (5): dkingsland967 (#942), tomsloger (#1553), Gemma (#1576), vezokpiraka (#1584), Axelrod (#1619)
dkingsland967 (5): Silvercrys3467 (#1313), Asta (#1359), KittyCupCake (#1437), Grapefruit21 (#1489), Nachomamma8 (#1647)
Abstaining (2): Prophylaxis, Keldeo
Then Axelrod gets run up and claims here:
Grapefruit21 (2): fulcrum (#1537), tomsloger (#1670)
dkingsland967 (5): Silvercrys3467 (#1313), Asta (#1359), KittyCupCake (#1437), Grapefruit21 (#1489), Nachomamma8 (#1647)
Axelrod (7): Vaimes (#979), Killjoy (#1525), Lastwhisper (#1651), Keldeo (#1666), vezokpiraka (#1692), Rhand (#1700), Gemma (#1714)
Abstaining (1): Prophylaxis
And his wagon shifts around some but doesn't actually lose traction until Gemma gets killed. She shifts around a bit, then fulcrum gets on, Lastwhisper shifts to dkingsland, Vaimes shifts to dkingsland, Gemma gets back on, then dies. Which puts us here:
KittyCupCake (2): dkingsland967 (#942), Axelrod (#1619)
Axelrod (5): Killjoy (#1525), Keldeo (#1666), vezokpiraka (#1692), Rhand (#1700), fulcrum (#1724)
dkingsland967 (7): Silvercrys3467 (#1313), Asta (#1359), KittyCupCake (#1437), Grapefruit21 (#1489), Nachomamma8 (#1647), Lastwhisper (#1793), Vaimes (#1795)
Abstaining (1): Prophylaxis
After Gemma dies, a bunch of dkingsland voters shift to No Lunch, then Keldeo and Killjoy unvote Axel back to back, killing the wagon and leaving us with this:
Grapefruit21 (1): tomsloger (#1670)
Axelrod (3): vezokpiraka (#1692), Rhand (#1700), fulcrum (#1724)
dkingsland967 (3): Asta (#1359), Grapefruit21 (#1489), Nachomamma8 (#1647)
No Lynch (5): KittyCupCake (#1841), Vaimes (#1846), Silvercrys3467 (#1847), Lastwhisper (#1879), Axelrod (#1882)
Abstaining (4): Prophylaxis, Gemma, Keldeo, Killjoy
The rest of the phase is mainly just KCC getting run up, culminating in the final vote count and no lunch:
Nachomamma8 (2): Rhand (#1988), KittyCupCake (#2065)
dkingsland967 (4): Grapefruit21 (#1489), Nachomamma8 (#1647), Silvercrys3467 (#2088), fulcrum (#2103)
KittyCupCake (7): dkingsland967 (#942), tomsloger (#1967), Killjoy (#1990), Asta (#2016), Asta (#2067), vezokpiraka (#2128), Lastwhisper (#2143)
Abstaining (2): Prophylaxis, Keldeo
So... the no lunch actually seems to have been a reaction to dkingsland claiming and Gemma dying, not the Axelrod wagon (dkingsland was Axelrod's counterwagon). It's possible some of those votes were wolves trying to avoid responsibility for the lunch in a sea of mislunches but I can't see much other good reason for them to abandon the wagon and not find a new one (only Axelrod came from somewhere other than the dkingsland wagon).
None of the no lunch voters other than Lastwhisper ended up on KCC at the EoD vote count so that kind of makes sense in, like, KCC + partners wanted to no lunch worlds like tom keeps saying I guess. Keldeo had KCC at L-1 and unvoted in #2163, making the no lunch much more likely. [KCC/Keldeo/Rhand/+1] or something if she's a wolf?
In KCC!town worlds... man, idk. I still think we're living here but game is harder if she is. Keldeo unvoting as a wolf is weird but he might have figured a no lunch isn't terribly bad for them. tom/last could be wolves on her but her wagon at EoD is super clean otherwise with wolves doing ~nothing with their votes. Something like [Rhand/Proph or Keldeo or Both/last or tom/+1?] maybe.
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Rhand insisting I'm villagery but with a weaker read because I think his posts are weird strikes me as strange. Idk.
@Keldeo my read there hasn't really evolved, no. He fits on a lot of teams (I'd even hazard that he's possible partners with Nacho and their interactions have been theater) and his posting is, like, reasonable but I don't think it's out of his range. Possible I'm tunneling but I haven't really seen anything that makes me reconsider.
So id always kill her first
This is, like, game 6 of that happening yeah?
Literally the difference between trying to lynch scum and not?
But the second question here is more important to me. You said you cant get normal reads because mechanics. Which of your reads are being effected by mechanics?
What are you focusing on thats stopping you?
With you on keldeo. If hes scum hes played perfectly fine replacing in, but hes never wanted to move forward. Its more than just the unvote
And i think we might have had an all town wagon on mind, who was scummy af
I am not part of the people who elected Vezok as king. This is not a great observation.
Typing "that election is dumb" takes less than 30 seconds. Rereading the entire game and putting my conclusions in a palatable format takes a hell of a lot longer than that.
Difficult to explain
But the conversation would be about me gimmicking. How to react to it, what to do with me etc.
The speed at which dkings reached tiers with me would have come faster with someone else annoyed by me in similar ways and going through it together
I wanna say he gets to "whatever ill just ignore him" about a week earlier if he had a chat with axel
But my first reaction is it means vaimes process day 1 was "i want the scumsided role"
Best ive come up with are
>kcc: prove her roleblock specifically doesnt hit factional kills seems solid?
>dkings: dont think scum has a bodyguard, so possibly a cop shot. and lets a theoretical townvaimes die for someone else
Targeting last seems moderately useless since i think im just believing he has approximately that ability regardless of alignment and it does nothing for you?
He was already pushing kcc nothing stopping him from making associatives before counterclaiming
But this is like a switch turned on this is real now but
Nothing changed really to make that switch flip? Like, after her rvs soft her claim wasnt that far from what i expected
So yeah its kinda weird
Though I guess here what he's representing is that he really thought she was going to flip red and lied to CC her to try to push the lunch in faster?
It's been bothering me too but I can't really put my finger on it
I'm still really not feeling keldeo as the kill today
Nacho seems like a bit of a maverick on that team, but fonti/kcc definitely makes sense
the gambit itself already had an excess of irresponsibility and bravado that i feel are outside of most people's ranges - adding a couple of degrees on irresponsibility and bravado on top of that isn't really that wild.
@silver, to clarify, the lie was that I was CC'ing. i wasn't reaction testing kitty - i just thought the responses from kitty's scum partners as i nailed her on the CC would be more interesting than the responses from her scum partners as i railed her into oblivion with normal people arguments, and thought i'd be more likely to die if i downed scum by CC'ing them as opposed to downing them by normal people arguments.
@tom, the switch flip that you're missing is the part where i thought she scumslipped based on her wording of the NK.
counterclaiming kitty as scum and retracting the counterclaim halfway through is... not something i'd do as scum simply because it torpedos my endgame chances. i don't have the most ungodly greatest scumgame ever BUT i do very genuinely love playing scum and, as a result, i generally play for endgame, whether it is me going to endgame (usually), or, very rarely, my scumpartner going for endgame. the move is sloppy and one that will predictably get me a lot of hate and if i'm scum here i would rather at least get the KCC mislynch and play dumb or get the KCC bus and cash in on towncred for a partner that wasn't playing that great anyways.
and yes i know that no one here knows me well enough for that to be useful now that Gemma is dead, so... future reference?
Keldeo, I saw your question and will get back to you when I can.
Hm. Lets try this:
Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Vaimes, Lastwhisper, KittyCupCake, Grapefruit2,Rhand, dkingsland967: If Vezok didn't claim mason, who would you have voted for King?
Tom or You
Nacho makes good points in her favour, but the fact that she is the one saying it makes less likely to be true.
I'm also thinking if shouldn't just shoot KCC to reveal stuff about the day 1 wagons.
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Think id rather just have a record of thoughts
Would like everyone to give their top two shot choices
I know a few that have been said fairly recently:
Tom: keldeo/fulcrum
Fulcrum: keldeo/rhand
Rhand: nacho/vaimes
Last: vaimes/fulcrum
Vaimes: fulcrum/nacho
You are getting to chat about this with your buddy, right?
It is fair to ask who I would shoot, so, I'm thinking about that.
As of this moment I'm probably on Vaimes. I still need to do some reviewing, especially Rhand/Fulcrum/Proph(slot). I thought had a good read on Fulcrum, but that was largely based on one post, and it's probably not a good idea to base a read on one whole post. I'm not crazy about Asta's posting either, but there's the whole newbie thing going on there. Keldeo and Nacho both have made posts I liked and posts that bugged me, but they are probably landing more in the undecided range than the actively wish death on range. Probably would not campaign for anyone else today, unless I see/remember something else more sinister.
Think I said Keldeo/Rhand at some point but if I didn't I'm saying it now
Don't understand your specific objection.
:smileup::smileup:
I said mechanics were getting in the way of reads that I felt good about, not that I couldn't get normal reads at all. In a vacuum people usually shy away from lunching PRs, especially if they might be useful later. So a game full of that is gonna be hard, at least for me, because I hate making those kinds of decisions, and I tend to cave towards not lunching PRs. I just think his role is cool, and if I wasn't being directed, then I was just gonna dick around and take one of his seven hundred abilities. But yeah, dk and KCC are practical choices, and I briefly thought about targeting dk first. You, Silver, or maybe fulcrum. You because townread, though I don't usually trust your scumreads that much. Silver because I really want him to do something big. fulcrum because she's a good shot when she's town + making her justify the kill. Are you gonna wait the full three weeks?
Just like
Its such a farfetched thing for him to believe that id like to hear why you believe him strongly enough to base a read off
Tom: keldeo/fulcrum
Fulcrum: keldeo/rhand
Rhand: nacho/vaimes
Last: vaimes/fulcrum
Vaimes: fulcrum/nacho
Silver: keldeo/rhand
Axel: vaimes?
Need to answer:
Proph
Kcc
vezok
dkings
Keldeo
KJ
Grape
Nacho
Asta
As for my choice I'll pick nacho first and maybe keldeo second, but these are subject to change.
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I actually regret that we voted so quickly because the conversation about who we'd vote ignoring vezok might have been as telling as votal analysis.