both of Proph's votes were interesting in the fact that neither probably was going to happen given the collectives town reads on Asta, and everything surrounding DK's claim
like I said, I really did not like on Proph was actively saying he was trying to get his own read on Keldeo, but never really got there, he just left his vote on Asta, and let Keldeo die
This has been a pattern with Proph all game long. He's been hiding and doing nothing useful pretty consisently in terms of voting.
Asta was visited on N1 which I ~think confirms Dkingsland (more than he was, anyway) since no one else claimed Asta as their N1 target and dkings said he bodyguarded him N1.
I'm town, dkings is a bodyguard with no extra non-wolf kill power in the setup, that leaves the double voter and two manipulatives that can't even control whether their abilities work
There's a world where Dkingsland's ability protects from the lunch and he's a wolf with Asta and also has unclaimed abilities, I suppose. Like maybe he had the daykill and got the bodyguard after he used it or something, he's the only "active" role to only have one mostly passive ability (even Asta has a Winter active lmao)
Seriously... you've got proof Asta was targeted N1, Asta has the mod confirmation, and like you said there does not appear to be another kill in the setup. Tinfoil over my role is just distraction at this point.
And I honestly don't believe at all that you seriously think I was lucky enough to steal an ability that I just so happened to have breadcrumbed like two weeks earlier. In the words of the great Cris Carter...
I don't know that they work exactly as claimed, but there's a good chance the only thing he could be lying about is their literal effects because ~nothing has happened from them yet
1) mod error.
2) dk is hiding something about his role.
Totally by coincidence, I think dk is scum, so this is just icing.
Vaimes, I find it really odd that you keep hammering away at this and yet you have never tried to offer me the ability swap for an opportunity to actually learn exactly what my ability says... which would have been really easy to do if you have been so skeptical.
Proph is literally playing their own game right now, and it doesnt make me feel great about him, but I will give you that his posts arent really wolfy? I have stated before that I think at some points he feels really uninformed, but IDK how much I believe that at this point
What you call "playing their own game" I call being off in nowhereland doing nothing useful.
lets go way back and look at this train, where KCC is being run up
what exactly are the wolves doing here, if KCC is a wolf?
I don't think KCC is scum, but if she is then Silver/fulcrum/KCC are on counterwagons, Proph's slot had been MIA literally all D1, and Vaimes was off hiding in nowhereland being useless.
Not a fan of how Asta keeps using the newbtown defense in order to justify not lynching him - also, his post feels like he's trying to set up KCC as a mislynch after me.
His post also contains zero reasoning as to why he believes I am mafia - it's just an OMGUS vote. I don't think the double vote holds up as mechanical confirmation when we have a mason pair in the game.
Quote from vezok »
I'm willing to vote either dkings or asta with no remorse. I'm a bit iffy on proph simply because his role is just too weird for scum and I kinda liked shadow in the beginning.
vezok, do you have any opinion on me that's not based on shadow or my role? I don't recall you saying anything about me behaviorally or talked to me at all this game?
Quote from Lastwhisper »
@Asta's post against Proph is so bad? It literally reads as, "you are just jealous that I am a pure town read, and you are not"
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Unvote, vote dkings
Would prefer Asta but dkings can die too.
lol at scum trying to lynch me. What even is this? "Yeah I was voting this guy yesterday and today and keep calling him scum, and I totally agree with Last's latest point, but now I'm gonna switch with the wind!"
Like I am literally looking at half of fulcrum’s role PM and these abilities do **** all for a scum team.
Yeah, I mentioned this yesterday and this stuff has only solidified it, both fulcrum and Vaimes are probably only scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/Killjoy and I doubt that's the case. This just isn't a game-winning gambit because if one of them slips up and gets lynched, the entire thing just crumbles.
--------------------------------
So anyway, Proph (preferably) or Silver.
I don't think I need to say much more about Proph.
I really don't like that Silver's entire scumhunting methodology over the past two days has been laser-focused on who the daykiller is. It feels like he is trying to steer us down a bad path. It's also worth noting that he is just completely ignoring Proph in all of his analysis.
I'm rereading for to convince myself as much as any one else, that's not because of you.
It's just frustrating. Reminds me of when I've played on this site before and felt like I was clearly town and clearly pointing out wolves and still got lynched. Bleh.
I'm a bit coddled on DLP, can just expect people to follow me a lot of the time because I have the record to back it up.
I don't really understand how you got so deep into this tunnel?
Yes, I was wrong that Silver was scumreading Gemma - I didn't think he was aaking a legitimate question because I thought the answer was obvious. That was wrong, but don't really understand how you got from that to "any worlds where Nacho is town requires redacted information and that's LOL".
I also was nitpicky and overly aggressive in the early game and I can see people being weirded out by that if they didn't know what I was doing, but there's nothing scummy about either of those qualities in early game when people are trying to generate information.
Then there's my position on KCC's claim; claiming that I'm "freaking out as scum" because a townie held up a neon sign that said "LYNCH ME, I'M NOT CONFIRMABLE" is ridiculously dumb; if faced with a claim like that as scum, chances are I try to mislynch her eventually but I'm not so inexperienced to the point where I figure it's something I have to attempt immediately like you're currently implying.
Your push on me is frustrating because I don't think it's coming from scum but you're pushing me like you are scum - you're attacking small pieces of my play but ignoring my play as a whole, you're acting like I've messed up to the point where I'm either terrible or scum despite it being early as hell and despite me not doing anything close to that bad (I've been scattered and I've had points that were incorrect, but again, nothing that explains the "gosh I can't see any world where Nacho is town that isn't zany". If you're actually invested in reading me this game, take a step back and make an effort to see where I'm coming from.
If I'm wrong, I expect to come around on you sooner or later on my own terms.
The LOL part is more about me accurately reading into something super obscure, rather than like. Dismissing your alignment.
I remember when Voxx softed a scummy role D1 in whatever game that was where Iso was a neutral and solved the scumteam Day 1. He was a town rolecop. Could be wrong, but I don't think anyone made a huge deal of it, so I don't know why KCC doing it is any different. This game has a lot of roles, so of course town is going to have some scummy roles. There probably aren't enough mechanically traditional town roles to go around.
Sorry, but the last bit just sounds like CFTWR. I think I'm the only one voting you, and it feels weird to me that you're that worried about my read, especially if it's wrong. You don't trust me to take in new information and change my mind?
Again, if something jumps out at me as being towny from you, I'll make note of it. I don't really want to fall into the trap of scumreading you and squeezing every post henceforth through the scumidifier.
And, hypothetically, making a bad play does not mean you are a bad player.
ya so 5 pages in and I think Vezok is closer to his scum self, not as natural, reads that I feel like he pulled out of thin air
whiteknighting Fulcrum, and somehow turning that into a reason to scumlean me more???
Vote: Vezok
@Vezok
What is so townie about Ful's posts? like everything outside the first post is literally just ok, nothing that should sway the needle for you at least not enough to warrant shading me for hating her opening post
easy questions, easy call out, and the last line in #220 is just awkward
Do you know what whiteknighting is? Because this post implies you don't.
fulcrum: yes, Last TMI's more than the average scum player. He ~tends to be obvious about partner interactions, with vezok being the exception last game.
I liked your Gemma read. You may be a villager for the next 72 hours.
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Nacho, an olive branch to you.
Unvote, vote Axelrod
I will explore this.
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Hottake: Rhand is scum because nobody has tried to mislunch him yet. sideeyesemoji
I don't know why I even thought Vaimes might be scum d1. This is his confident town self. Bonus points for the Rhand bit.
dk, I didn’t think your trade it to me, tbh. Especially if you’re lying.
Probably would have been more valuable to send it to him than having me use it, and then kill him if you die or he doesn't trade. Too late now.
I have a weird theory about Rhand and Asta's post times being close together. Could have been because Asta was getting coached. Will look into it as I go.
@dkingsland not saying you just happened to steal Gemma's role and it was the one you crumbed, saying you might have had to kill her to unlock your bodyguard
@dkingsland not saying you just happened to steal Gemma's role and it was the one you crumbed, saying you might have had to kill her to unlock your bodyguard
this feels reachy, but like you literally just confirmed he targeted Asta, so why would you instill this paranioa? What did your role do again? You see who targeted someone?
With my winter ability I can see whether someone was targeted on a previous night
I picked Asta and N1, because dkings claimed he didn't get a chance to use the bodyguard before the lunch and everything else that's happened has been pretty much public info or hard to lie about.
Result was "yes," so "someone" (presumably dkingsland) targeted him with "something" (presumably the bodyguard) on N1
The thing that's most suspicious about it is that Asta claimed he got a message about it, that almost never happens with bodyguards lol
So my theory was that maybe it had never happened in the first place and they both lied (which couldn't be true now, given my result and current claims, I believe all N1 actions are accounted for?)
That doesn't mean that the bodyguard isn't targeting a wolf though (Asta) or that it's every part of his role; even the weak roles have all had multiple things going on, I'd be surprised if the almost passive bodyguard was the only ability dkings has
A compulsive bodyguard that can only switch targets every 6 deaths or if a role changes the season to summer? Ya it's pretty garbage especially since we planned out his target, which in hindsight was really stupid
A compulsive bodyguard that can only switch targets every 6 deaths or if a role changes the season to summer? Ya it's pretty garbage especially since we planned out his target, which in hindsight was really stupid
I mean the idea was to put on someone scum would want to kill, which with asta's role at the time seemed like him. In a game without Nacho calling summer early, we could have had dk on an investigative or an actual clear.
I don't really get now why Asta's role would be a top priority, and announcing it is still counter-intuitive
Look man, we had a few minutes to decided, and everyone thought asta was town. It was announced so we didn't have a situation where people die and scum!dk's like "oh, i didn't target them, teehee."
And let's say that the whole vigilante shot did steal Gemma's role, now we have a serious problem
Could explain why the wolves shot someone like Gemma who was unclaimed, and so random and out of nowhere, but I still think there were better options, so I'm still confused on he choice of shot
I don't really get now why Asta's role would be a top priority, and announcing it is still counter-intuitive
Look man, we had a few minutes to decided, and everyone thought asta was town. It was announced so we didn't have a situation where people die and scum!dk's like "oh, i didn't target them, teehee."
Wolves killed you N1 in Game of Thrones just for top posting, remember? Lol
I don't think trying to read into their choice to kill Gemma specifically is much different from night kill analysis
honestly if we are going to get sucked into mechanical reads, then we should look into world's where the vigilante shot stole her role, because then we would have a person being cleared for having a role that originally wasn't theirs
And let's say that the whole vigilante shot did steal Gemma's role, now we have a serious problem
Could explain why the wolves shot someone like Gemma who was unclaimed, and so random and out of nowhere, but I still think there were better options, so I'm still confused on he choice of shot
I'm not sure it makes a huge difference? I claimed the majority of my role beforehand. So did KCC. Silver softed an info role and Dk softed bodyguard before, iirc. Vezok and Killjoy are town regardless. I guess the only role that I would care about that could have been stolen would have been Vaimes?
Jesus who didn't soft or claim their role day 1???
*raises hand*
I just now realized we only had 5 days left until deadline. Blah.
DK/Proph are kinda the lowest on my 'would lynch' list. I feel similarly that both could be scum but don't have strong opinions on them.
KCC and Last are the two I feel like I would push for right now. As I said before, fulcrum could also be scum but I haven't really got behavioral reasons for that, it's more VCA and such. I'll post points about that tomorrow before work if I have time, otherwise Sunday.
I'm townleaning Silver as of right now.
Proph: Asta jumped on Rhand with no hesitation in response to me starting the wagon on him. There was I think really just me really pushing that, and Asta jumped on with both votes immediately. I doubt Rhand would have told him to just let him die at that point, as Rhand was not, at that point, under significant prior to those votes. Those votes were actually almost more pressure than were really on Rhand at that point.
And with regards to his abilities... He has two seasons of double votes and one of causing someone to gain a lynch threshold. If he's scum, that's a lot of voting power in scum hands, and similarly his other ability is mechanically the same as removing a vote from a wagon. Effectively it's setting the (currently on wagon) variable to -1. That potentially removes the vote effectively of one of his buddies, requiring a lot of collusion to lynch that person. I feel like it's more likely that that ability lies on town (therefore making town harder to lynch) instead of the opposite.
It can also probably be said that Rhand's ability being one that can't be interacted with at night along with Asta's abilities both being the same aren't as likely to be aligned than not aligned.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Vaimes: fulcrums nonmafia thing was a spring ability, right? Does the ability you get no longer have a season attached, or am I misremembering something?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I might have mentioned my town role name before Gemma but I don't think so. I purposefully hid the double vote ability until Summer came and activated it because I was pretty sure that would get me shot immediately. I mean, I want to believe DK is definitely a bodyguard, but yeah, if scum wanted to remove voting power from town they would have shot DK then me.
Anyways, baa baa. Vaimes is still voting Proph, so I'm chill to stay there. (BTW, my vote wasn't an OMGUS vote, it was mostly a foregone conclusion since Vaimes was there.) Last is voting me, obvis not gonna hop on that wagon. Killjoy's not voting yet so not a great way to go. This has been the sheeping update.
So, dk, you think the team is proph, silver, asta? Can you elaborate on the Asta read?
See, that's the thing... I don't have an indepedent scumread on Asta. There are a few weird things here and there, but nothing particularly damning on its own. But he's the only player that makes sense unless I'm wrong about KCC. Or Last is snowing all of us, but I just don't see that for like a dozen different reasons.
And I noticed something else that kinda points to Proph/Asta, but I'll put it in a separate post so this one isn't a chore to parse.
Like you were one of my original targets, but then I got worried I’d look scummy if me getting your role cancelled the protect on Asta.
Well tbh I wouldn't have taken the trade N1 without knowing who it was or how it happened. I would have done it N2 or N3, with hopes you would have stayed quiet about having the ability so scum would still think the BG was on.
@dkingsland not saying you just happened to steal Gemma's role and it was the one you crumbed, saying you might have had to kill her to unlock your bodyguard
Having to perform a kill to unlock a protective ability doesn't seem to make a lot of sense?
Vezok confirmed Proph gave her the orb early so it can't be Proph
Doubt it was Vaimes either
Your role went off on N0
KCC and fulcrum had both softed their roles by then, pretty sure
Honestly would have to be one of Asta/Dkingsland/Killjoy still I think
- Last's and Proph's abilities were confirmed during D1
- vezok is confirmed
- Vaimes and I breadcrumbed our roles long before Gemma died
- KCC/Axel/fulcrum full-claimed
- Silver weakly softed
That leaves Asta and Killjoy (if he's neutral) as possibilities, and also Rhand if the kill doesn't show up in flip once it's been used.
There is a corner case where Silver softed info role thinking one of Axel/fulcrum would get lynched and Rhand could copy one of their abilities, but that's a stretch.
But if someone did indeed steal Gemma's role, Occam's says its Asta due to the weird spring/summer doublevote claim that doesn't become active until the first summer.
On the other hand, Axel's theory that it was part of Gemma's role (Aurora?) that she burned up and didn't reveal her abilities when she died isn't really any less reasonable than the idea that the daykiller stole Gemma's role.
@DK
I wouldn't say nothing useful? Like he is clearly trying,. But like I am not certain which alignment that is coming from
I don't mean that he isn't trying in his posts, I mean in his voting. I'm pretty sure he has avoided every single major wagon over the course of the game.
Sorry if my hedging is bothering you
Can I clear Vaimes off of this? lmao
This has been a pattern with Proph all game long. He's been hiding and doing nothing useful pretty consisently in terms of voting.
Seriously... you've got proof Asta was targeted N1, Asta has the mod confirmation, and like you said there does not appear to be another kill in the setup. Tinfoil over my role is just distraction at this point.
And I honestly don't believe at all that you seriously think I was lucky enough to steal an ability that I just so happened to have breadcrumbed like two weeks earlier. In the words of the great Cris Carter...
/barn
I could see this, especially when considering the vote Proph cast below.
Vaimes, I find it really odd that you keep hammering away at this and yet you have never tried to offer me the ability swap for an opportunity to actually learn exactly what my ability says... which would have been really easy to do if you have been so skeptical.
What you call "playing their own game" I call being off in nowhereland doing nothing useful.
I don't think KCC is scum, but if she is then Silver/
fulcrum/KCC are on counterwagons, Proph's slot had been MIA literally all D1, andVaimeswas off hiding in nowhereland being useless.lol at scum trying to lynch me. What even is this? "Yeah I was voting this guy yesterday and today and keep calling him scum, and I totally agree with Last's latest point, but now I'm gonna switch with the wind!"
Vote Proph
Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr I have a job that keeps me very busy?
Tbh I'm being very much reminded of why I stopped playing Mafia in the first place.
Yeah, I mentioned this yesterday and this stuff has only solidified it, both fulcrum and Vaimes are probably only scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/Killjoy and I doubt that's the case. This just isn't a game-winning gambit because if one of them slips up and gets lynched, the entire thing just crumbles.
--------------------------------
So anyway, Proph (preferably) or Silver.
I don't think I need to say much more about Proph.
I really don't like that Silver's entire scumhunting methodology over the past two days has been laser-focused on who the daykiller is. It feels like he is trying to steer us down a bad path. It's also worth noting that he is just completely ignoring Proph in all of his analysis.
Yeah, a bit.
I'm rereading for to convince myself as much as any one else, that's not because of you.
It's just frustrating. Reminds me of when I've played on this site before and felt like I was clearly town and clearly pointing out wolves and still got lynched. Bleh.
I'm a bit coddled on DLP, can just expect people to follow me a lot of the time because I have the record to back it up.
Ok fine
Will read that post from DK after work
I don't know why I even thought Vaimes might be scum d1. This is his confident town self. Bonus points for the Rhand bit.
Easily mod gamed? It's results from two partial rolecop shots.
But fine, I also really don't think fulcrum shoots axel while being in our neighborhood
Probably would have been more valuable to send it to him than having me use it, and then kill him if you die or he doesn't trade. Too late now.
I have a weird theory about Rhand and Asta's post times being close together. Could have been because Asta was getting coached. Will look into it as I go.
But God if I think about her ability being stolen, It just opens up a lot of people. Ahhhhhhhhh
*Internally screaming*
I wouldn't say nothing useful? Like he is clearly trying,. But like I am not certain which alignment that is coming from
Doubt it was Vaimes either
Your role went off on N0
KCC and fulcrum had both softed their roles by then, pretty sure
Honestly would have to be one of Asta/Dkingsland/Killjoy still I think
Can you point me to where you crumbed your role, that would be much appreciated
I picked Asta and N1, because dkings claimed he didn't get a chance to use the bodyguard before the lunch and everything else that's happened has been pretty much public info or hard to lie about.
Result was "yes," so "someone" (presumably dkingsland) targeted him with "something" (presumably the bodyguard) on N1
The thing that's most suspicious about it is that Asta claimed he got a message about it, that almost never happens with bodyguards lol
So my theory was that maybe it had never happened in the first place and they both lied (which couldn't be true now, given my result and current claims, I believe all N1 actions are accounted for?)
That doesn't mean that the bodyguard isn't targeting a wolf though (Asta) or that it's every part of his role; even the weak roles have all had multiple things going on, I'd be surprised if the almost passive bodyguard was the only ability dkings has
What if silver was the one who stole Gemma's role? :Thinking_emoji:
I think we should have trains on Asta, DK, and Proph now
I mean the idea was to put on someone scum would want to kill, which with asta's role at the time seemed like him. In a game without Nacho calling summer early, we could have had dk on an investigative or an actual clear.
Look man, we had a few minutes to decided, and everyone thought asta was town. It was announced so we didn't have a situation where people die and scum!dk's like "oh, i didn't target them, teehee."
Could explain why the wolves shot someone like Gemma who was unclaimed, and so random and out of nowhere, but I still think there were better options, so I'm still confused on he choice of shot
#mechanics
I don't think trying to read into their choice to kill Gemma specifically is much different from night kill analysis
I'm not sure it makes a huge difference? I claimed the majority of my role beforehand. So did KCC. Silver softed an info role and Dk softed bodyguard before, iirc. Vezok and Killjoy are town regardless. I guess the only role that I would care about that could have been stolen would have been Vaimes?
Gemma?
Killjoy can't be a wolf without fulcrum also being a wolf ..
The Current Season is Winter.
With 10 Alive it takes 6 to lynch.
I'm currently at KCC/Asta/Proph/Dkingsland in roughly that order
vote Asta
My confbias wants to say that all the scum are scrambling to distance now.
Quick, every scum vote a scum!!
I just now realized we only had 5 days left until deadline. Blah.
DK/Proph are kinda the lowest on my 'would lynch' list. I feel similarly that both could be scum but don't have strong opinions on them.
KCC and Last are the two I feel like I would push for right now. As I said before, fulcrum could also be scum but I haven't really got behavioral reasons for that, it's more VCA and such. I'll post points about that tomorrow before work if I have time, otherwise Sunday.
I'm townleaning Silver as of right now.
Proph: Asta jumped on Rhand with no hesitation in response to me starting the wagon on him. There was I think really just me really pushing that, and Asta jumped on with both votes immediately. I doubt Rhand would have told him to just let him die at that point, as Rhand was not, at that point, under significant prior to those votes. Those votes were actually almost more pressure than were really on Rhand at that point.
And with regards to his abilities... He has two seasons of double votes and one of causing someone to gain a lynch threshold. If he's scum, that's a lot of voting power in scum hands, and similarly his other ability is mechanically the same as removing a vote from a wagon. Effectively it's setting the (currently on wagon) variable to -1. That potentially removes the vote effectively of one of his buddies, requiring a lot of collusion to lynch that person. I feel like it's more likely that that ability lies on town (therefore making town harder to lynch) instead of the opposite.
It can also probably be said that Rhand's ability being one that can't be interacted with at night along with Asta's abilities both being the same aren't as likely to be aligned than not aligned.
Anyways, baa baa. Vaimes is still voting Proph, so I'm chill to stay there. (BTW, my vote wasn't an OMGUS vote, it was mostly a foregone conclusion since Vaimes was there.) Last is voting me, obvis not gonna hop on that wagon. Killjoy's not voting yet so not a great way to go. This has been the sheeping update.
not for long, I'm gunna tie the wagons that we have
vote: DK
what does FoSing me and KCC do @killjoy, when you are voting nobody?
See, that's the thing... I don't have an indepedent scumread on Asta. There are a few weird things here and there, but nothing particularly damning on its own. But he's the only player that makes sense unless I'm wrong about KCC. Or Last is snowing all of us, but I just don't see that for like a dozen different reasons.
And I noticed something else that kinda points to Proph/Asta, but I'll put it in a separate post so this one isn't a chore to parse.
Well tbh I wouldn't have taken the trade N1 without knowing who it was or how it happened. I would have done it N2 or N3, with hopes you would have stayed quiet about having the ability so scum would still think the BG was on.
Having to perform a kill to unlock a protective ability doesn't seem to make a lot of sense?
- Last's and Proph's abilities were confirmed during D1
- vezok is confirmed
- Vaimes and I breadcrumbed our roles long before Gemma died
- KCC/Axel/fulcrum full-claimed
- Silver weakly softed
That leaves Asta and Killjoy (if he's neutral) as possibilities, and also Rhand if the kill doesn't show up in flip once it's been used.
There is a corner case where Silver softed info role thinking one of Axel/fulcrum would get lynched and Rhand could copy one of their abilities, but that's a stretch.
But if someone did indeed steal Gemma's role, Occam's says its Asta due to the weird spring/summer doublevote claim that doesn't become active until the first summer.
On the other hand, Axel's theory that it was part of Gemma's role (Aurora?) that she burned up and didn't reveal her abilities when she died isn't really any less reasonable than the idea that the daykiller stole Gemma's role.
I don't mean that he isn't trying in his posts, I mean in his voting. I'm pretty sure he has avoided every single major wagon over the course of the game.
Bottom of post 723
You should rethink on Proph.