These are basically my main thoughts coming into Day 2 (reminder, assuming Last/vezok both townfirmed).
I thought KCC's nightkill joke was flat and kind of a weak scumtell, and the Last question didn't read as genuine at all. I couldn't imagine Last, if he's trueclaiming, having another alignment check in a Mini. I could see a newb asking this question, but coming from KCC it just looks fake. This prompted me to look back at her D1 posts, and I remember early in the game she had that awkward scumread on me that a couple of people questioned and then dropped.
There were some posts where Meg was shading KK in a soft chainsaw-y way, almost like he was trying to make KK look bad for suspecting KCC. This is when I suspected a possible alignment between them. One of Meg's posts jumped out at me, a response to Cantrip in 301:
But no, the eyes was because I like that you voted me there. I was sure somebody would, and you did.
Another thing I find to be a scumtell: when someone votes for you, saying you expected it, and commenting that it makes you like that person. It's pandering.
That's when I started thinking of the Rhand/KCC/Meg team as a whole.
The case for Rhand being scum slash the best Day 2 lunch:
- I think a lot of the votes on him (which were me, tom, vezok, Last, Meg, and an intended vote from KK) were from town, but people cried "oh no speed" and decided it was a bad wagon. Meg is a potential busser.
- Gameflow is pretty weird if he's town. As soon as he gets run up to L-2, KK is suddenly in the spotlight.
- I think Rhand is the best lunch for toDay, both because he's likely to be scum, and because if he isn't, it sheds more light on Day 1 votes.
EoD wagon movement just felt very scum-influenced, and I suspect they were pulling away from Rhand. Town!Rhand gets pushed on early, especially when he's busy, and I think if he were actually town he would have ended up being the D1 lunch.
And then why I want Last to claim, or at least confirm his original vezok check. Personally, I think Last is incredibly scummy by behavior. He's super moody, not really solving, prone to being deliberately unhelpful, traits that are very familiar from his play in Modern. He isn't acting like a villager who knows another villager's alignment, he isn't using that information in any meangingful way, he doesn't even seem to want anyone to pay attention to him. Town!Last doesn't need to wait for an invitation to push the game forward. Which is why I want him to be explicitly clear about his vezok check and that it isn't a gambit. If he's telling the truth, sweet, I'm just misreading him and we can move on. And if not, he needs to die, and this whole post/case needs some serious reworking, aside from maybe the Rhand bits since that's sort of in its own independent bubble.
Seeing as how I seriously shot town in the foot by killing KCC last game, I don't really want to jump the gun in scumreading her. But if I'm right about Emiko and KJ being town, then that only leaves four people, three of which are scum.
Speaking of Emiko, I think if Rhand were town he would've voiced more concern about her alignment earlier. She quickly gathered a lot of newbtown townreads on D1 and he kind of didn't really address it, but now wants to say she's acting like textbook scum.
I don't really have a strong read on Cantrip. His presence has seemed okay, I liked some of his responses to me and others. tom's pretty good at reading him though, so. I need to do some more homework there, but again, I want to clear up Last so that I'm working with four potential scum instead of five. I think vezok's okay regardless of Last's alignment.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
These are basically my main thoughts coming into Day 2 (reminder, assuming Last/vezok both townfirmed).
I thought KCC's nightkill joke was flat and kind of a weak scumtell, and the Last question didn't read as genuine at all. I couldn't imagine Last, if he's trueclaiming, having another alignment check in a Mini. I could see a newb asking this question, but coming from KCC it just looks fake. This prompted me to look back at her D1 posts, and I remember early in the game she had that awkward scumread on me that a couple of people questioned and then dropped.
There were some posts where Meg was shading KK in a soft chainsaw-y way, almost like he was trying to make KK look bad for suspecting KCC. This is when I suspected a possible alignment between them. One of Meg's posts jumped out at me, a response to Cantrip in 301:
But no, the eyes was because I like that you voted me there. I was sure somebody would, and you did.
Another thing I find to be a scumtell: when someone votes for you, saying you expected it, and commenting that it makes you like that person. It's pandering.
That's when I started thinking of the Rhand/KCC/Meg team as a whole.
The case for Rhand being scum slash the best Day 2 lunch:
- I think a lot of the votes on him (which were me, tom, vezok, Last, Meg, and an intended vote from KK) were from town, but people cried "oh no speed" and decided it was a bad wagon. Meg is a potential busser.
- Gameflow is pretty weird if he's town. As soon as he gets run up to L-2, KK is suddenly in the spotlight.
- I think Rhand is the best lunch for toDay, both because he's likely to be scum, and because if he isn't, it sheds more light on Day 1 votes.
EoD wagon movement just felt very scum-influenced, and I suspect they were pulling away from Rhand. Town!Rhand gets pushed on early, especially when he's busy, and I think if he were actually town he would have ended up being the D1 lunch.
And then why I want Last to claim, or at least confirm his original vezok check. Personally, I think Last is incredibly scummy by behavior. He's super moody, not really solving, prone to being deliberately unhelpful, traits that are very familiar from his play in Modern. He isn't acting like a villager who knows another villager's alignment, he isn't using that information in any meangingful way, he doesn't even seem to want anyone to pay attention to him. Town!Last doesn't need to wait for an invitation to push the game forward. Which is why I want him to be explicitly clear about his vezok check and that it isn't a gambit. If he's telling the truth, sweet, I'm just misreading him and we can move on. And if not, he needs to die, and this whole post/case needs some serious reworking, aside from maybe the Rhand bits since that's sort of in its own independent bubble.
Seeing as how I seriously shot town in the foot by killing KCC last game, I don't really want to jump the gun in scumreading her. But if I'm right about Emiko and KJ being town, then that only leaves four people, three of which are scum.
Speaking of Emiko, I think if Rhand were town he would've voiced more concern about her alignment earlier. She quickly gathered a lot of newbtown townreads on D1 and he kind of didn't really address it, but now wants to say she's acting like textbook scum.
I don't really have a strong read on Cantrip. His presence has seemed okay, I liked some of his responses to me and others. tom's pretty good at reading him though, so. I need to do some more homework there, but again, I want to clear up Last so that I'm working with four potential scum instead of five. I think vezok's okay regardless of Last's alignment.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
vaimes this is going to sound silly so please excuse the question but did you write all of that just now? based off of notes taking contemporaneously with game events?
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I wrote it in chunks, spread out from a little from when I saw the flips + KCC's post. Most of it without rereading, and some of it after reading pages 1-8, skipping tom's and Silver's posts.
Seeing as how I seriously shot town in the foot by killing KCC last game, I don't really want to jump the gun in scumreading her.
I'm not even upset with you this time. This is such a great post for several reasons that you've hopped into my comfortable town pile and made this game way easier to solve
I guess before you try to charm my socks off, I'd to know if/why you seriously expected Last to have another check?
You can leave your socks on, Vaimes.
And you're right, I obviously wasn't expecting a check last night, but I wanted to see what type of "no" we got. I was basically asking the same thing you did, just less directly
I don't really see a Cantrip connection to KCC and Rhand. You're gonna have to explain that better.
I was really sure KJ was scum in Modern and he turned out to be town so the fact that I'm not getting strong vibes either way makes me think he might be scum.
Also I kinda see KCC as probable scum due to speaheading the KK lynch, but that catch was pretty solid. I actually thought it came from scum.
I still think one of megs or Cantrip is scun. Megs wagoned was kinda there all day, but never had much momentum, while Cantrip wagon didn't even grow. If I was scum, I'd rather would have Cantrip dead on day 1 than KK. So yeah, I like my vote on Cantrip right now.
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i’m scum because i was the counterwagon to (town) KK and (from your perspective, town) cantrip?
that’s not really how counterwagons work. are you sure kk wasn’t the cantrip counterwagon?
I know. Counterwagons tend to be more indicative when you have counterwagons to flipped scum. That's why I said it's possible we had three town wagons going on.
EoD wagon movement just felt very scum-influenced, and I suspect they were pulling away from Rhand. Town!Rhand gets pushed on early, especially when he's busy, and I think if he were actually town he would have ended up being the D1 lunch.
I'd have to go back and confirm, but I feel like Rhand's wagon had practically disbanded long before the time KK/Meg/Me arose. I can see where you're coming from here, but I don't know that I agree that EoD wagon movement specifically points to scum!Rhand.
Quote from Vaimes »
And then why I want Last to claim, or at least confirm his original vezok check. Personally, I think Last is incredibly scummy by behavior. He's super moody, not really solving, prone to being deliberately unhelpful, traits that are very familiar from his play in Modern. He isn't acting like a villager who knows another villager's alignment, he isn't using that information in any meangingful way, he doesn't even seem to want anyone to pay attention to him. Town!Last doesn't need to wait for an invitation to push the game forward. Which is why I want him to be explicitly clear about his vezok check and that it isn't a gambit. If he's telling the truth, sweet, I'm just misreading him and we can move on. And if not, he needs to die, and this whole post/case needs some serious reworking, aside from maybe the Rhand bits since that's sort of in its own independent bubble.
I feel like this is pretty good analysis, but more importantly, it feels like sincere analysis, not calculating analysis.
Quote from Vaimes »
Seeing as how I seriously shot town in the foot by killing KCC last game, I don't really want to jump the gun in scumreading her. But if I'm right about Emiko and KJ being town, then that only leaves four people, three of which are scum.
Wait...which four?
Quote from Vaimes »
I think vezok's okay regardless of Last's alignment.
This is an odd little coda at the end of a huge wall. Why is Vez ok regardless of Wisp's alignment? What do you think of Vez independent of Wisp's maybe-claim?
The case for Rhand being scum slash the best Day 2 lunch:
- I think a lot of the votes on him (which were me, tom, vezok, Last, Meg, and an intended vote from KK) were from town, but people cried "oh no speed" and decided it was a bad wagon. Meg is a potential busser.
- Gameflow is pretty weird if he's town. As soon as he gets run up to L-2, KK is suddenly in the spotlight.
- I think Rhand is the best lunch for toDay, both because he's likely to be scum, and because if he isn't, it sheds more light on Day 1 votes.
EoD wagon movement just felt very scum-influenced, and I suspect they were pulling away from Rhand. Town!Rhand gets pushed on early, especially when he's busy, and I think if he were actually town he would have ended up being the D1 lunch.
This is not a case.
1) unless scum piles up on 1 wagon, there is always a lot of town on wagons. That is not an argument for anything.
2) As soon as KK was at L-2, Cantrip was suddenly the spotlight. You’re twisting yesterdays eets to fit your narrative.
3) You want me dead regardless my alignment. Ergo, you’re pushing to get us to lylo.
And then why I want Last to claim, or at least confirm his original vezok check. Personally, I think Last is incredibly scummy by behavior. He's super moody, not really solving, prone to being deliberately unhelpful, traits that are very familiar from his play in Modern. He isn't acting like a villager who knows another villager's alignment, he isn't using that information in any meangingful way, he doesn't even seem to want anyone to pay attention to him. Town!Last doesn't need to wait for an invitation to push the game forward. Which is why I want him to be explicitly clear about his vezok check and that it isn't a gambit. If he's telling the truth, sweet, I'm just misreading him and we can move on. And if not, he needs to die, and this whole post/case needs some serious reworking, aside from maybe the Rhand bits since that's sort of in its own independent bubble.
Vaimes knows LW is town.
Seeing as how I seriously shot town in the foot by killing KCC last game, I don't really want to jump the gun in scumreading her. But if I'm right about Emiko and KJ being town, then that only leaves four people, three of which are scum.
Why is Emiko town?
Speaking of Emiko, I think if Rhand were town he would've voiced more concern about her alignment earlier. She quickly gathered a lot of newbtown townreads on D1 and he kind of didn't really address it, but now wants to say she's acting like textbook scum.
With this smear you convinced me completely.
Why would I be questioning Emiko earlier over something he did EOD?!?
@Megs / KCC: what in that post of Vaimes makes you think he’s town?
I don't really have a strong vezok read. She just doesn't stand out as being scummy. I think if she were scum she'd have no incentive to leave me alive here when Rhand and LW are pushing so hard; if one or both of them are town, that's an easy mislunch in LyLo.
Also her KJ read ("I'm not getting strong vibes so he must be scum this time") reads more as weirdly paranoid than malicious.
I wanted to look at the assertion that Emiko pushed the KK wagon then jumped off before it blew up, so I iso'd.
First thing I noticed is that she never interacted with Shadow. She calls him villagery in 354, then next mention is 540 where she wants to lunch him (along with KJ, Rhand, and me). Next post she votes Killjoy. Not sure the lack of Shadow interaction is indicative, though, since she treated me the exact same way (even down to towning me in 354 and saying I'm in the lunch pool in 540).
Emiko: Silver/tom/ a little bit Koolkoal. Do you think there's scum in that grouping?
i think it is not likely .
Does this come from scum D1?
Wisp replaces in for Shadow and claimes the N0 check. 668 is Emiko's response, asking if the claim is common on Wisp's home site. Followed by 706 where she seems to imply that she thinks Wisp is wolf!faking the claim similar to Marl's recent claims on Colosseum and votes Wisp.
758 is where Emiko first expresses concern about KK, only saying that she doesn't like Kool's 745, and then her next post, 813, she says "this has to be the best wagon right now" and votes Kool.
Emiko, when you posted "coincidence?" in 814, were you saying that you thought that Rhand and KCC's votes on Kool coming so quickly after Vezok's was a coincidence, or were you implying that it was unlikely that that was a coincidence?
After that, we get a series of posts by Wisp that Emiko doesn't like, but no indication as to why she doesn't like them, as well as the next post highlighting Wisp's reads and Emiko asking the thread why we're not lunching Wisp (but still no indication as to what is wrong with Wisp's reads), and finally 863, where she says that Wisp talks to other players like he knows they're town. This is literally the first reason she's given for suspecting Wisp other than in 826 where she says "last has not given much more to the thread than shadow did. the cop check is suspicious." But throughout all these posts where she repeatedly goes after Wisp, she's still voting Kool. 882 she naked unvotes Kool after Kool's claim, no indication as to why. When I ask her about it, she says we have time and she wants to read more. When I press, she says she reread Kool, would still be ok lunching him, but there are others she wants lunched more.
A few more posts (including another one where Wisp is still most wolfy), and then she pivots onto me (as better than Kool or Megiddo), but only because I "use too many words to say very little".
So she found Kool scummy (but without any reasoning) until he claimed, vocally attacked Wisp all Day but never once voted him, said she still found Kool scummy but pushed me at the last minute instead. This doesn't feel like a town progression. It feels like scum trying to get as many claims as possible, but without much commitment. And the continuous attacking of Wisp without a vote feels like not wanting to put any real pressure on a buddy.
Emiko, why no Wisp vote until toDay?
Vaimes, you think the above is agenda-less?
Megiddo, to anticipate your queston: I don't know why.
I think Emiko's overall choices are more likely to come from scum than the possible role fishing I suspect of Wisp. Completely possible that the two of them are buddies, but if only one's scum, I'd think it more likely to be Emiko.
Vote Emiko
Wisp, I still want to know why you oh-so-innocently openly wondered why you weren't NK'd.
Because LW claiming an innocent on a buddy and then both of them doing literally nothing is not really stellar scum play.
"It feels like scum trying to get as many claims as possible, but without much commitment." But you also think that she could be buddies with LW? What exactly is the strategy behind fakeclaiming a cop check and having your buddy doubt your claim for no concrete reason?
I do think it's agenda-less. What is the agenda? Vote everyone, say nothing, and hope she doesn't get called out on it?
She's kind of all over the place, and isn't very verbose, which can look inconsistent and scummy. But she reads as pretty confident in what she's doing, in a "doesn't care how it's perceived" kind of way. Think she'd be a little more careful slash open to advice/guiding if she were actually scum, on this forum, for the first time. That she came into this Day continuing to push Last makes no sense as a Last buddy, or as scum pushing on a claimed PR and damn the consequences.
According to your ISO, you had Emiko as villagery for the first half-ish of the Day, and didn't mention her much after that. Did anything actually jump out at you before we went into Night?
ok now talk me through this. Why is everyone where they are?
kittycake appears to think about the game but not think about what she says if it says her opinion .
i liked the explanations for your reads in post 864 . it did not appear fake .
megiddo posted 485 . i do not believe that is likely to be wolf except directly with you . i like his effort also .
vaimes almost completely pocketed me during the second half of day 1 . a lot of the same thoughts on last and vezok .
rhand i do not like most of their posts and there is not much there . he appears like he could be wrong and not wolf though .
cantripman appears to use a lot of words to say very little . i have not read his town game but he appears to try to act as himself .
vezok did very little during day 1 . when she did post there were a lot of votes that appeared to be to look good or manipulate instead of for a good reason .
last progression on vaimes on day 1 was bad . i said so in post 855 . last also did not do anything during day 1 . he was very defensive . he pushed for bad reasons . the cop claim looks more likely to be a wolf gambit .
This is not a case.
1) unless scum piles up on 1 wagon, there is always a lot of town on wagons. That is not an argument for anything.
2) As soon as KK was at L-2, Cantrip was suddenly the spotlight. You’re twisting yesterdays eets to fit your narrative.
3) You want me dead regardless my alignment. Ergo, you’re pushing to get us to lylo.
Personally I don’t see the point in being disagreeable with a scumread just because I think they’re scum. If their question isn’t rolefishy or asked to sling mud, I’m not gonna do something *****y like “lol ur scum don’t talk to me.”
First thing I noticed is that she never interacted with Shadow. She calls him villagery in 354, then next mention is 540 where she wants to lunch him (along with KJ, Rhand, and me).
i did not interact with most people who did not post much on day 1 . i said could be village in 354 but that is a very light read . 540 is contextually a reread . reads change sometimes when people reread .
758 is where Emiko first expresses concern about KK, only saying that she doesn't like Kool's 745, and then her next post, 813, she says "this has to be the best wagon right now" and votes Kool.
i was asked to vote one of the three main wagons .
Emiko, when you posted "coincidence?" in 814, were you saying that you thought that Rhand and KCC's votes on Kool coming so quickly after Vezok's was a coincidence, or were you implying that it was unlikely that that was a coincidence?
i thought that rhand and kittycake votes near vezok vote was coincidence . why would i ask coincidence by itself if not a coincidence ?
i listed wisp read on vaimes during day 1 . the pattern did not make sense and i wanted other people to see it .
But throughout all these posts where she repeatedly goes after Wisp, she's still voting Kool.
i was told that voting wisp was not useful and i needed to vote in the wagons .
882 she naked unvotes Kool after Kool's claim, no indication as to why. When I ask her about it, she says we have time and she wants to read more. When I press, she says she reread Kool, would still be ok lunching him, but there are others she wants lunched more.
i doubted that kool was a wolf .
vocally attacked Wisp all Day but never once voted him
not true . i voted him in this post and only changed my vote in this post after i was told that my vote was useless in this post . i voted last for over 100 posts during day 1 .
said she still found Kool scummy
i said i would not mind his lynch . at that point i did not read him as wolf or as town .
It feels like scum trying to get as many claims as possible, but without much commitment.
how does it feel that way ?
And the continuous attacking of Wisp without a vote feels like not wanting to put any real pressure on a buddy.
this sounds like you know wisp is a wolf because you are a buddy with him and you want to leave the option to vote him open . i pushed wisp hard when there was no pressure on him . i had no reason to do that if i was his buddy .
Emiko, why no Wisp vote until toDay?
see above . i voted wisp for a while during day 1 .
I think Emiko's overall choices are more likely to come from scum than the possible role fishing I suspect of Wisp. Completely possible that the two of them are buddies, but if only one's scum, I'd think it more likely to be Emiko.
Vote Emiko
your post appears to be a forced explanation for this vote .
replying to one of cantripman posts was very tiring .
i think the team is :
lastwhisper + cantripman + one of vezok or rhand .
my reads had vezok lower than rhand . after rereading both of them i think vezok is more likely to be confused . because of the lastwhisper fake check on vezok she probably should not be in lylo . rhand looks more fake . vezok vote on cantripman this day phase does not appear to be a bus .
Cantrip, Emiko definitely voted for LW on Day 1. That you missed it both during the actual Day and on a reread doesn't really inspire me to think you made that case+vote in good faith.
lastwhisper + cantripman + one of vezok or rhand .
my reads had vezok lower than rhand . after rereading both of them i think vezok is more likely to be confused . because of the lastwhisper fake check on vezok she probably should not be in lylo . rhand looks more fake . vezok vote on cantripman this day phase does not appear to be a bus .
I can dig it, but that wholly depends on whether KCC is legit or if someone told her (correctly) in scumchat that I am very easy to buddy up to. And if Meg gets off his butt.
I can dig it, but that wholly depends on whether KCC is legit or if someone told her (correctly) in scumchat that I am very easy to buddy up to. And if Meg gets off his butt.
reading kittycake :
her pattern on you early day 1 appears okay .
i get a little bit of the same thoughts with tomsloger and silvercrys .
her responses to my push on her look like explanation , not caught defense .
questioning on koolkoal and on tomsloger .
i do not like lack of interaction the whole game with lastwhisper and cantripmancer .
i think that she is town but that she is not putting effort .
for the rest of the game , i would go for lynching :
lastwhisper and then cantripman and then rhand and then vezok
i think that leads us to a town win ?
I'm very tempted to just /barn you at this point from what I've seen, but I'm leaning Meg as scum over a last/Vez Gambit, and over a rhand/Cantrip team
for the rest of the game , i would go for lynching :
lastwhisper and then cantripman and then rhand and then vezok
i think that leads us to a town win ?
I'm very tempted to just /barn you at this point from what I've seen, but I'm leaning Meg as scum over a last/Vez Gambit, and over a rhand/Cantrip team
what teams make sense with meg ?
you appear to say it is not you , me (appear to think is town), vaimes (appear to think is town), kj (appear to think is town), last (not a gambit), or vez (not a gambit) .
you say it is not likely meg+rhand+cantrip exactly ("over a rhand/Cantrip team") .
that is all of the players . there are no other possible teams .
cantrip, your big post on emiko starts from a weird place of trying to make her out to be scum through association with last. Neither player's alignment is known.
why do this?
>Megiddo, to anticipate your queston: I don't know why. Shrugs
I mean, if that's the question your were anticipating I don't like the answer.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I thought KCC's nightkill joke was flat and kind of a weak scumtell, and the Last question didn't read as genuine at all. I couldn't imagine Last, if he's trueclaiming, having another alignment check in a Mini. I could see a newb asking this question, but coming from KCC it just looks fake. This prompted me to look back at her D1 posts, and I remember early in the game she had that awkward scumread on me that a couple of people questioned and then dropped.
There were some posts where Meg was shading KK in a soft chainsaw-y way, almost like he was trying to make KK look bad for suspecting KCC. This is when I suspected a possible alignment between them. One of Meg's posts jumped out at me, a response to Cantrip in 301:
But no, the eyes was because I like that you voted me there. I was sure somebody would, and you did.
Another thing I find to be a scumtell: when someone votes for you, saying you expected it, and commenting that it makes you like that person. It's pandering.
That's when I started thinking of the Rhand/KCC/Meg team as a whole.
The case for Rhand being scum slash the best Day 2 lunch:
- I think a lot of the votes on him (which were me, tom, vezok, Last, Meg, and an intended vote from KK) were from town, but people cried "oh no speed" and decided it was a bad wagon. Meg is a potential busser.
- Gameflow is pretty weird if he's town. As soon as he gets run up to L-2, KK is suddenly in the spotlight.
- I think Rhand is the best lunch for toDay, both because he's likely to be scum, and because if he isn't, it sheds more light on Day 1 votes.
EoD wagon movement just felt very scum-influenced, and I suspect they were pulling away from Rhand. Town!Rhand gets pushed on early, especially when he's busy, and I think if he were actually town he would have ended up being the D1 lunch.
And then why I want Last to claim, or at least confirm his original vezok check. Personally, I think Last is incredibly scummy by behavior. He's super moody, not really solving, prone to being deliberately unhelpful, traits that are very familiar from his play in Modern. He isn't acting like a villager who knows another villager's alignment, he isn't using that information in any meangingful way, he doesn't even seem to want anyone to pay attention to him. Town!Last doesn't need to wait for an invitation to push the game forward. Which is why I want him to be explicitly clear about his vezok check and that it isn't a gambit. If he's telling the truth, sweet, I'm just misreading him and we can move on. And if not, he needs to die, and this whole post/case needs some serious reworking, aside from maybe the Rhand bits since that's sort of in its own independent bubble.
Seeing as how I seriously shot town in the foot by killing KCC last game, I don't really want to jump the gun in scumreading her. But if I'm right about Emiko and KJ being town, then that only leaves four people, three of which are scum.
Speaking of Emiko, I think if Rhand were town he would've voiced more concern about her alignment earlier. She quickly gathered a lot of newbtown townreads on D1 and he kind of didn't really address it, but now wants to say she's acting like textbook scum.
I don't really have a strong read on Cantrip. His presence has seemed okay, I liked some of his responses to me and others. tom's pretty good at reading him though, so. I need to do some more homework there, but again, I want to clear up Last so that I'm working with four potential scum instead of five. I think vezok's okay regardless of Last's alignment.
I'm not even upset with you this time. This is such a great post for several reasons that you've hopped into my comfortable town pile and made this game way easier to solve
wagon movements were fairly scattershot, Rhand and I actually had a 4-4 split in 761.
A few posts after that VC is where KCC moves from me to KK and starts that wagon in earnest, I think.
check out 865 and the few posts after.
I think I'm buying your worldview here. Well, 2/3s of it.
You can leave your socks on, Vaimes.
And you're right, I obviously wasn't expecting a check last night, but I wanted to see what type of "no" we got. I was basically asking the same thing you did, just less directly
I was really sure KJ was scum in Modern and he turned out to be town so the fact that I'm not getting strong vibes either way makes me think he might be scum.
Also I kinda see KCC as probable scum due to speaheading the KK lynch, but that catch was pretty solid. I actually thought it came from scum.
I still think one of megs or Cantrip is scun. Megs wagoned was kinda there all day, but never had much momentum, while Cantrip wagon didn't even grow. If I was scum, I'd rather would have Cantrip dead on day 1 than KK. So yeah, I like my vote on Cantrip right now.
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Maybe. I'm still rereading, and the middle of my list is blurry, but I don't think I see a scumteam without Meg on it
Rhand, why aren't you touching Megiddo with a 10-foot pole?
I know. Counterwagons tend to be more indicative when you have counterwagons to flipped scum. That's why I said it's possible we had three town wagons going on.
I'd have to go back and confirm, but I feel like Rhand's wagon had practically disbanded long before the time KK/Meg/Me arose. I can see where you're coming from here, but I don't know that I agree that EoD wagon movement specifically points to scum!Rhand.
I feel like this is pretty good analysis, but more importantly, it feels like sincere analysis, not calculating analysis.
Wait...which four?
This is an odd little coda at the end of a huge wall. Why is Vez ok regardless of Wisp's alignment? What do you think of Vez independent of Wisp's maybe-claim?
Wisp, why would town!you ever post this question?
Vote Lastwhisper
Scrolling social media is a good way to pass some time and forgot all about your real life duties. You think you should do it more often.
Vaimes (2): Lastwhisper, Rhand
Lastwhisper (2): EmikoYuriemoto, Cantripmancer
Rhand (1): Vaimes
Cantripmancer (1): vezokpiraka
Not Voting (3): Killjoy, Megiddo, KittyCupCake
V/LA: -
With 9 alive, it’s 5 to lynch. Deadline is on October 22nd.
This is not a case.
1) unless scum piles up on 1 wagon, there is always a lot of town on wagons. That is not an argument for anything.
2) As soon as KK was at L-2, Cantrip was suddenly the spotlight. You’re twisting yesterdays eets to fit your narrative.
3) You want me dead regardless my alignment. Ergo, you’re pushing to get us to lylo.
Vaimes knows LW is town.
Why is Emiko town?
With this smear you convinced me completely.
Why would I be questioning Emiko earlier over something he did EOD?!?
@Megs / KCC: what in that post of Vaimes makes you think he’s town?
I tacked on the vezok part because vezok would be a sixth slot, but I specifically think she's not as likely to be scum with Last.
I think Emiko is town for her pursuit of LW, among general good impressions. She doesn't seem to have any agenda.
No comment on anything else you said, I know you're thrilled that people aren't piling onto me.
Also her KJ read ("I'm not getting strong vibes so he must be scum this time") reads more as weirdly paranoid than malicious.
First thing I noticed is that she never interacted with Shadow. She calls him villagery in 354, then next mention is 540 where she wants to lunch him (along with KJ, Rhand, and me). Next post she votes Killjoy. Not sure the lack of Shadow interaction is indicative, though, since she treated me the exact same way (even down to towning me in 354 and saying I'm in the lunch pool in 540).
Does this come from scum D1?
Wisp replaces in for Shadow and claimes the N0 check. 668 is Emiko's response, asking if the claim is common on Wisp's home site. Followed by 706 where she seems to imply that she thinks Wisp is wolf!faking the claim similar to Marl's recent claims on Colosseum and votes Wisp.
758 is where Emiko first expresses concern about KK, only saying that she doesn't like Kool's 745, and then her next post, 813, she says "this has to be the best wagon right now" and votes Kool.
Emiko, when you posted "coincidence?" in 814, were you saying that you thought that Rhand and KCC's votes on Kool coming so quickly after Vezok's was a coincidence, or were you implying that it was unlikely that that was a coincidence?
She asks Kool for reads, then towns Meg, attacks Vez and Wisp, says Vez is slightly better than Wisp, but both stink, either smears or clarifies Wisp's general play, asks Wisp for reads, questions Wisp, continues to question Wisp, but specifies that her vote is still on Kool when Wisp says her lone vote on him is wolfy.
After that, we get a series of posts by Wisp that Emiko doesn't like, but no indication as to why she doesn't like them, as well as the next post highlighting Wisp's reads and Emiko asking the thread why we're not lunching Wisp (but still no indication as to what is wrong with Wisp's reads), and finally 863, where she says that Wisp talks to other players like he knows they're town. This is literally the first reason she's given for suspecting Wisp other than in 826 where she says "last has not given much more to the thread than shadow did. the cop check is suspicious." But throughout all these posts where she repeatedly goes after Wisp, she's still voting Kool. 882 she naked unvotes Kool after Kool's claim, no indication as to why. When I ask her about it, she says we have time and she wants to read more. When I press, she says she reread Kool, would still be ok lunching him, but there are others she wants lunched more.
A few more posts (including another one where Wisp is still most wolfy), and then she pivots onto me (as better than Kool or Megiddo), but only because I "use too many words to say very little".
So she found Kool scummy (but without any reasoning) until he claimed, vocally attacked Wisp all Day but never once voted him, said she still found Kool scummy but pushed me at the last minute instead. This doesn't feel like a town progression. It feels like scum trying to get as many claims as possible, but without much commitment. And the continuous attacking of Wisp without a vote feels like not wanting to put any real pressure on a buddy.
Emiko, why no Wisp vote until toDay?
Vaimes, you think the above is agenda-less?
Megiddo, to anticipate your queston: I don't know why.
I think Emiko's overall choices are more likely to come from scum than the possible role fishing I suspect of Wisp. Completely possible that the two of them are buddies, but if only one's scum, I'd think it more likely to be Emiko.
Vote Emiko
Wisp, I still want to know why you oh-so-innocently openly wondered why you weren't NK'd.
"It feels like scum trying to get as many claims as possible, but without much commitment." But you also think that she could be buddies with LW? What exactly is the strategy behind fakeclaiming a cop check and having your buddy doubt your claim for no concrete reason?
She's kind of all over the place, and isn't very verbose, which can look inconsistent and scummy. But she reads as pretty confident in what she's doing, in a "doesn't care how it's perceived" kind of way. Think she'd be a little more careful slash open to advice/guiding if she were actually scum, on this forum, for the first time. That she came into this Day continuing to push Last makes no sense as a Last buddy, or as scum pushing on a claimed PR and damn the consequences.
kittycake appears to think about the game but not think about what she says if it says her opinion .
i liked the explanations for your reads in post 864 . it did not appear fake .
megiddo posted 485 . i do not believe that is likely to be wolf except directly with you . i like his effort also .
vaimes almost completely pocketed me during the second half of day 1 . a lot of the same thoughts on last and vezok .
rhand i do not like most of their posts and there is not much there . he appears like he could be wrong and not wolf though .
cantripman appears to use a lot of words to say very little . i have not read his town game but he appears to try to act as himself .
vezok did very little during day 1 . when she did post there were a lot of votes that appeared to be to look good or manipulate instead of for a good reason .
last progression on vaimes on day 1 was bad . i said so in post 855 . last also did not do anything during day 1 . he was very defensive . he pushed for bad reasons . the cop claim looks more likely to be a wolf gambit .
why ?
i assume last is wolf .
if last is the first to die , the gambit generally leaves vezok alone .
if vezok is town and dies first , the players generally leave last alone .
if vezok is wolf and dies first , the gambit hurts last .
vezok does not appear to be likely to die first .
they could be buddies .
it also fits my belief that it is a copy of that other game .
i did not interact with most people who did not post much on day 1 . i said could be village in 354 but that is a very light read . 540 is contextually a reread . reads change sometimes when people reread .
i was asked to vote one of the three main wagons .
i thought that rhand and kittycake votes near vezok vote was coincidence . why would i ask coincidence by itself if not a coincidence ?
i listed wisp read on vaimes during day 1 . the pattern did not make sense and i wanted other people to see it .
i was told that voting wisp was not useful and i needed to vote in the wagons .
i doubted that kool was a wolf .
not true . i voted him in this post and only changed my vote in this post after i was told that my vote was useless in this post . i voted last for over 100 posts during day 1 .
i said i would not mind his lynch . at that point i did not read him as wolf or as town .
how does it feel that way ?
this sounds like you know wisp is a wolf because you are a buddy with him and you want to leave the option to vote him open . i pushed wisp hard when there was no pressure on him . i had no reason to do that if i was his buddy .
see above . i voted wisp for a while during day 1 .
your post appears to be a forced explanation for this vote .
i think the team is :
lastwhisper + cantripman + one of vezok or rhand .
my reads had vezok lower than rhand . after rereading both of them i think vezok is more likely to be confused . because of the lastwhisper fake check on vezok she probably should not be in lylo . rhand looks more fake . vezok vote on cantripman this day phase does not appear to be a bus .
lastwhisper and then cantripman and then rhand and then vezok
i think that leads us to a town win ?
I can dig it, but that wholly depends on whether KCC is legit or if someone told her (correctly) in scumchat that I am very easy to buddy up to. And if Meg gets off his butt.
There'll be a nice long section about this in my read list
I'm totally down for that
reading kittycake :
her pattern on you early day 1 appears okay .
i get a little bit of the same thoughts with tomsloger and silvercrys .
her responses to my push on her look like explanation , not caught defense .
questioning on koolkoal and on tomsloger .
i do not like lack of interaction the whole game with lastwhisper and cantripmancer .
i think that she is town but that she is not putting effort .
I'm very tempted to just /barn you at this point from what I've seen, but I'm leaning Meg as scum over a last/Vez Gambit, and over a rhand/Cantrip team
what teams make sense with meg ?
you appear to say it is not you , me (appear to think is town), vaimes (appear to think is town), kj (appear to think is town), last (not a gambit), or vez (not a gambit) .
you say it is not likely meg+rhand+cantrip exactly ("over a rhand/Cantrip team") .
that is all of the players . there are no other possible teams .
But while I'm doing that, we can talk about Cantrip a bit
Did you notice him role fishing me Day 1? If you didn't, I can go find it, but if you did, I actually think of that as more likely from townCantrip
this ?
i do not believe that was rolefishing . it looks like fluff , maybe to support a pocket .
why do this?
>Megiddo, to anticipate your queston: I don't know why. Shrugs
I mean, if that's the question your were anticipating I don't like the answer.
is your team emiko/last/me?