@Cantrip That end of post rhetorical feels like the kind of thing scum would say to try and flush out protective roles. You're not going on record as having globally role-fished (even declaiming it in advance as WIFOM), but you could use the responses and ways players respond to try and identify doctors/bodyguards. I don't see any reason for town!cop to invite public speculation on why they weren't killed.
i honestly didnt think of this implications, you can reach all you want though though
On the topic of Godfathers, I was under the impression that an x-shot Cop and Godfather combo (or Godfathers in general) was something MTGS softbanned after Three Little Pigs. Or at least discouraged.
I'm wondering if Last and KCC aren't both real. If I take a step back, I like Last's claim, and I think an informed vanilla is a weird/kind of out there role to set up a fakeclaim for (on shadow's part) waaay in advance.
If the mod confirmed one of them was scum, I'd probably kill KCC just because the Emiko check is really meh imo.
It might be safer to proceed as if all four of them are town, massclaim toMorrow (if we mislunch), and work from there.
Ok, I read KCC's D1 iso, and I didn't see any breadcrumbs or indications that she was cop (or power), but that's as it should be with a cop. Things I found of interest:
Is this townTom? I think this is townTom. I like townTom
I feel like Tom is an unlikely candidate for scum to choose to unilaterally town in this way. Maaaaaybe if KCC sussed him as a power role and wanted to go on record early as liking him knowing he'd be high on the kill list, but...generally not the kind of play choice I think would come from scum.
Back when I played, we would force Vez to claim early because scumVez claims were a hilarious catastrophe and a free lynch. Did that actually just get incorporated into Vez's standard play?
I didn't see a lot that pinged me one way or the other after that until Wisp claims. I believe that KCC was regarded as a fairly good player back in the day, so I wouldn't expect her to make it obvious that she's cc'ing Wisp, but it still feels a little odd that it takes so long for her to say anything about it. Here are the nine posts KCC makes after Wisp claims (none of which weigh in on Wisp's claim in any way):
But yeah I thought shadow was deliberately trying not to be NK’d.
Maybe. I just know if I was in lylo in one game and early day1 in another, they're getting like a 90/10 split of my attention, so I assumed it was that
The mindset of this response is absolutely a scumtell. There's no push back, no challenge, no standing up for his read. KK just accepts that his description of rhands play is wrong and defends with that not being a tell.
I can't see this post coming from someone who believes in their read.
Or, I said something I thought was quick and clever (It wasn’t, I was just tired-posting like an idiot again) and then came back to it with a fresh mind in the morning.
That doesn't make it better. The fact you didn't think the post through actually makes it worse. Your snap reaction didn't come from a place of thinking you're right, but from a place of knowing you are wrong
Unraveling the sarcasm here, you're saying being wrong is not a scumtell, and you shouldn't be voted for that. But... that entirely relies on you being wrong, and more importantly, being wrong and knowing that you are wrong
-I'm way more confident on KK than Meg now. 0 chance of voting rhand
Mm, yeah, see this? This is suspicious wagon growth. I don't see how what KK said is indicative of anything, in context it was very obviously meant to be a silly quip to a "you're wrong, here's a vote" post.
Again, yes, obviously a silly quip, but not one that comes from someone who thinks they are right.
Mm, yeah, see this? This is suspicious wagon growth. I don't see how what KK said is indicative of anything, in context it was very obviously meant to be a silly quip to a "you're wrong, here's a vote" post.
At the time I had no issue with it because, from my point of view, that's four villagers in a row on Rhand.
Okay. And can you explain more your issues with the growth of the kk wagon?
That's a LOT of posts to not say anything about a pretty high-profile thread topic, including the first one where she agrees with a wolf hypothesis that Wisp puts forth. That said...when she does weigh in, it does feel like she's being pretty pointed about it:
I'm not clearing either of them on it yet, but I'm also not worried about it Today. And shadows posting was fine considering he was busy with another game at lylo
i dont think the reasons hes being voted are particularly indicative and he responded fine to a wagon, cantrip more likely to flip scum, and i care more about lynching scum than minimizing claims (though both would be nice)
I'm not seeing it, and I'm a bit suspicious that this case didn't exist until 24 hours before deadline
Same here, I don't think scum!KCC continues to push hard to lunch vanilla KK/push hard against wagoning me when a plausible case on me is presented.
tl;dr: KCC played D1 mostly how I would expect a cop to with the possible exception of how long it took for her to say anything about Wisp's claim...which is sticking in my craw more than it probably should. I guess that piece is dependent on how savvy a player KCC is. I think she was pretty quick to wink at Vaimes in Modern shortly after she neighborized Vaimes and me, but that was a neighborizing ability. I still think KCC is more likely town than Wisp, but not quite as much as I expected to going into the iso.
IF KCC is scum, I think it's >rand odds that Vaimes is her buddy. There was a LOT of interactions between the two that it wouldn't take much squinting to see coming from buddies talking in-thread.
On the flip side, I still feel like it's pretty ballsy for scum!Wisp to claim a N0 peek coming out of Modern. Yes, there's the possibility of being coached by teammates/deciding to run counter to expectations, but...Wisp was pretty badly burned by locking in claim elements early. Like, quasi-game losing burned.
So a big part of me wants to go with Vaimes's suggestion and leave them both alive until tomorrow. My reluctance there is that if we decide there can't be two town cop elements in the game (and a town vig!), then we have to correctly lunch between them in lylo.
I need to think on this. We have ~5 days to hash things out, so let's keep talking. I'm still feeling like it's more likely that not BOTH the cops are town, especially with a vig, which is borderline info role, too.
@Cantrip That end of post rhetorical feels like the kind of thing scum would say to try and flush out protective roles. You're not going on record as having globally role-fished (even declaiming it in advance as WIFOM), but you could use the responses and ways players respond to try and identify doctors/bodyguards. I don't see any reason for town!cop to invite public speculation on why they weren't killed.
i honestly didnt think of this implications, you can reach all you want though though
Not thinking of the implications is why I think it's scummy. I think town would think of those implications and not voice the question in-thread, especially not in a way that invites speculation like that.
It may not be a strong tell, but I don't think it's a reach.
Wisp, KCC, how likely do each of you think it is that the town power role line up is N0 Peek/1-shot Cop/1-shot Vig/??? Especially in a game billed as low-complexity?
Cantrip, with the talent pool in this game, scum definitely have someone who knows how to role hunt, so yes, I was hard breadcrumbing vanilla. And I very intentionally avoided comments on Last. -I thought he was probably town Gambiting but maybe scum fishing for reactions, and didn't trust myself to make a post about it that both wasn't a blatant lie and also wouldn't get me shot.
As for us both being true claiming, I still think it's very unlikely, like 5%. It's too much power, and the setup was basically designed to implode in that case anyway, so why fight it?
It seems like quite literally everyone agrees that Meg is scum, so that might be the best way to go.
Think it's important to hash out specific scumteams, though, that take into account worlds where all PR claims are true, and where one of them isn't. I want to see some Thought Processes.
Vaimes: Well, Yesterday there was also Silver. You weren't expecting Tom to shoot him. That's a whole other mislynch that you weren't expecting to not exist. You also weren't expecting KCC to clear Emiko.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Vaimes: Well, Yesterday there was also Silver. You weren't expecting Tom to shoot him. That's a whole other mislynch that you weren't expecting to not exist. You also weren't expecting KCC to clear Emiko.
Yeah, because Silver is just so damn mislunchable. He and tom were my strongest townreads.
I was also already townreading Emiko, so the clear on her really doesn't change anything.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Like I don't really understand how you could have had Silver as null. Or Rhand as town, for that matter. I don't recall any of his scumgames, or if I've ever even seen one, maybe Mistborn? But if you can look at me with a straight face and say that he at some point in this game has left his scumrange, I'll eat a brick.
Can you tell me the towniest thing you believe he's done?
Part of me wants to massclaim Today since my setup gaming brain tells me there's most likely just one more piece of town power out there at most. And it's possible there's none left. that would help POE/sorting through the claims.
I'm glad vezok/vaimes are skeptical of KCC's claim. I was thinking about that on my way home and I don't especially like the way it was handled, which I'll mostly sum up by saying i feel like KCC is too smart to check Emiko.
But let's start the analysis assuming that Last's claim is true and accurate and KCC's claim is also true and accurate. that puts us here:
(vanilla x2, vig)
vezokpiraka (confirmed by last)
EmikoYuriemoto (confirmed by kcc)
Last (shadow) (informed vanilla)
KittyCupCake (1-shot cop)
Megiddo
Rhand
Cantripmancer
Vaimes
Killjoy
It's not me, but you don't know that.
This is somewhat awkward, since from the perspective of anybody doing this exercise the game is literally solved: lynch down the row of "not mes" and you get the entire scumteam.
...
See I feel like it isn't that easy, since there isn't that much pushback in the thread against locking in the confirmeds and rolling with this scenario. if the scumteam really is in that five and the town locks in the blues they are completely trapped. they can't NK outside of the confirmeds or it's gg, and assuming we're capable of coming to consensus about ONE of the 5 unconfirmed players being town... that's all she wrote.
That said, it's not like this was planned. KJ is right that scum couldn't have known about KCC/Emi clears as well as silver being killed (presumably vig'd).
So I wouldn't say this is an impossible scenario. But again, I don't feel a ton of urgency from anybody right now. There's a lot of shrugs, which is sort of how this whole game has been going the whole time but I'm not seeing anybody within that five trying to really establish a narrative and push things forward. there are the constant murmurs of "meg is scum" without a push attached, but if this scenario is true I don't even mind being mislynched here that much since all we need to do is hit 3/4 to win the game and I don't want to be in lylo if half of the players have me on the scumlist.
The other thing scum would want to do here is sow uncertainty about the claims and try to get us to lynch there. Obviously, lynching KCC, finding that she is town, and then immediately going to lynch Last would be gg.
Off the cuff, a team that makes sense in this world is Rhand (limited activity) Cantrip (not that pushy) Killjoy (also not that pushy), since I could see this crew not trying to propel the game forward strongly. it could fit.
A very quick readback shows me:
Rhand: has not posted.
Cantrip: looking at... wisp and me? rhand... vaimes. notably NOT vezok despite wisp. I am curious how cantrip thinks vezok will be flipping scum in his scenario though. he is OK with leaving all of the confirmed players alive for Today.
Killjoy: Like, totally off in his own world here. Believes KCC, wants to lynch... wisp and vezok? This is a weird scumline since wisp town would eliminate vezok. I think based on arrow directions he's more strong on cantrip/vaimes? It also sounds like he is leaning to leave the blues alive.
Vaimes: skeptical of the KCC claim. fwiw i think that's healthy skepticism. I had the same concerns and I am glad that vaimes/vezok covered them. I'll... probably get back to those concerns later in this post. Vaimes also goes through this exercise in a much more succinct way in his own post, which seems... fine. I am thinking on that one. I think, end of day, it sounds like he wants to lynch within the 5 uncleared though.
So, alright. Everybody who has posted is at least, let's call it half-interested in lynching outside of the blues. That to me suggests that we may be on the wrong track a bit, though of course you don't have to start a mislynch wagon to make one happen.
...Circling back a bit, if we ARE in this world and there is a PR within the 5 uncleared, they should just claim now. that takes it from 2 available to 1.
...
So that's the world where everybody is truthful. the rest require some more work.
here are some worlds I won't consider:
1) Last is town, vezok is scum: I'm not expending brainpower on this, but I will have cross words with somebody postgame if this is the case.
2) KCC is town, Emiko is scum: Same as above; I'm not aware of any softbans on godfathers/ltd. cop but in a non-micro/non-specialty that doesn't seem fair.
3) last and KCC are both scum: I don't see this being possible for a variety of reasons, like lack of cc, game balance, etc.
so that leaves:
World 1A:
Last is town, Vezok is town
KCC is scum, Emiko is Town
World 1B
Last is town, vezok is town
KCC is scum, emiko is scum
World 2A
Last is scum, vezok is town
KCC is town, emiko is town
World 2B
Last is scum, vezok is scum
KCC is town, emiko is town
I think world 1B is unlikely. Scum KCC doesn't need to gambit to townclear emiko. I think Emiko was not at huge risk of being lynched here. I think it makes more sense to softclear a townie than to protect a buddy. KCC would have known while discussing this claim and while doing it that it would create this weird 4-player dichotomy. She would know that there would be potential that the town treats all claims as true, and that to maximize POE she would want to NK specifically Vezok, as that preserves the question of Last's alignment and keeps him open as a mislynch option (shooting Last, as has been covered already, does not leave Vezok as a ML option).
I don't feel especially strong about worlds 2B or 2B (aka, scum last). The way he just ran the claim out there in his third post doesn't seem like a calculated move? One thing that gives me pause is that shadow made almost zero mention of vezok in all of his posts. almost zero!
203: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=203
444: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=444
With this kind of role i'd usually expect something very coy to look back on and say "see?"
though maybe the scum play here has gotten too savvy for that to work. That said, the two posts from shadow are plausibly from somebody who knows that vezok is town.
In short, I kind of buy it? it wouldn't be scum/scum because shadow wouldn't say what he said if he knew vezok were SCUM. and scum/town doesn't feel right with how last handled it.
So that leaves world 1A.
The first thing to note about this is that the poe doesn't actually open up all that much.
the scum are KCC + 2[Meg, Vaimes, Rhand, KJ, Cantrip]. Though +1 when the margin is this tight is a significant amount. (again, we can assume that silver was expected to be alive and likely pushed as a potential ml candidate today).
it would behoove scum in this world to try and focus on the last scum world. lynching Last here is not actually a guarantee of a KCC lynch, and I'm sure KCC feels reasonably confident about her ability to argue out of a lynch even if pinned down this way. note of course that even if lynched, you then have to find just one mislynch with plenty of available candidates.
KCC obviously came into this whole thing trying to CC, and is arguing for Last. nobody else was super strongly agreeing on that, which... well I guess it just means we aren't dealing with power wolf trying to steer the game home right away.
Something to note. For both All Blue world and 1A, the scumteam would (i assume) prefer us to focus on either of the 2A/B worlds, as those have the most ml options.
So.
I'm short on actual opinions right now, sorry. but this is my worldview going in to some rereads. I have like 5 tabs open of various people's isos that I have been neglecting. should be back to phoneposting tomorrow at least.
quick hit thoughts:
> rhand needs to post
> vaimes looks like he's trying to take control of the game rn. could be a scum
> killjoy... seems pure? probably not a scum.
> cantrip's 1299 post read like a mark zuckerberg senate testimony: answering the questions but failing to read the room. could be scum.
> KCC gives me the jibblies. I'm still stuck on how EOD1 went. could be scum.
emiko/vezok/last are excused from this round of quick hit thoughts.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
@Meggido
why didnt you say anything about rhand, regardless if he hasnt posted in a bit?
Killjoy: Like, totally off in his own world here. Believes KCC, wants to lynch... wisp and vezok? This is a weird scumline since wisp town would eliminate vezok. I think based on arrow directions he's more strong on cantrip/vaimes? It also sounds like he is leaning to leave the blues alive.
no
lot of words but the analysis just feels fake and easy
heres to hoping round 2 is better
Silver was absolutely mislynchable. He was null to me. I can't recall many others town reading him.
I dont believe this, maybe the lynchable part, but like why does it matter, flips point to him being shot by Tom?
I didnt town read him persay, but I was taking from shadow's book, and not lynching a Top posting silver actually pushing things
looks like I misinterpreted his answer, probably should have read up more, its 3 am and I am tired
@Cantrip Not thinking of the implications is why I think it's scummy. I think town would think of those implications and not voice the question in-thread, especially not in a way that invites speculation like that.
ok that assessment is fair from your pov but its also definitely depends on the player and their personality, and not a strong in anyway, I vary rarely think about the implications of my posts when I am town since I dont see need be self-aware of what I am saying
for the first bit i was only commenting on posts since kcc's claim. the point of the exercise there was "in this world, do the actions of the people who COULD be scum support the fact that we are in this world?"
rhand, unless i'm blind, had zero of those.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
And now that I’ve thought on it some more, I kind of struggle to see KCC CC’ing Last as scum toDay. And she’s forcing a dichotomy, to boot.
If we lunch one of them, either way the gambit is ruined, and wasted on a PR that used its shot in pregame.
Despite my snarky comment just before this, I think these are really good points. Unfortunately, they're coming from someone who could possibly be a buddy with KCC, so if it's a scum gambit, you had plenty of time to hash out these really good points ahead of time. But again on the flip side, it's hard to believe that a you/KCC/??? team would think it worth the risk, seeing as how if we lunch Wisp and he flips town, not only is Vez confirmed town, but KCC gets a lot of scrutiny. So...I'm still at "KCC town, Wisp probably scum".
Part of me wants to massclaim Today since my setup gaming brain tells me there's most likely just one more piece of town power out there at most. And it's possible there's none left. that would help POE/sorting through the claims.
If there *is* one more town PR, what does that do to the theory of 2x town cops for you? If no one else is power, does that make it likely, in your opinion, that both Wisp and KCC are town?
Quote from Megiddo »
I'm glad vezok/vaimes are skeptical of KCC's claim. I was thinking about that on my way home and I don't especially like the way it was handled, which I'll mostly sum up by saying i feel like KCC is too smart to check Emiko.
I feel like this is a little insulting to KCC. She explained her reasoning, and I can actually see that possibility.
Quote from Megiddo »
The other thing scum would want to do here is sow uncertainty about the claims and try to get us to lynch there. Obviously, lynching KCC, finding that she is town, and then immediately going to lynch Last would be gg.
Out of curiosity, why specifically highlight this possibility but not the opposite (lunching Wisp, finding that he is town, and then immediately going to lunch KCC)?
Quote from Megiddo »
Cantrip: looking at... wisp and me? rhand... vaimes. notably NOT vezok despite wisp. I am curious how cantrip thinks vezok will be flipping scum in his scenario though. he is OK with leaving all of the confirmed players alive for Today.
...? I'm not strongly pushing lunching one of the cop claims, but I said I think it's unlikely that they're both town, and even though I like the idea of leaving them both alive, I think it would put us in a bad position toMorrow if we don't correctly lunch scum toDay. What are you talking about with how I think Vez will be flipping scum in my scenario??? I'm pretty much 95% sure Vez is town, regardless of Wisp's alignment.
Quote from Megiddo »
...Circling back a bit, if we ARE in this world and there is a PR within the 5 uncleared, they should just claim now. that takes it from 2 available to 1.
I'm not sure this is good advice. Maybe it's the case...but maybe not.
Quote from Megiddo »
here are some worlds I won't consider:
1) Last is town, vezok is scum: I'm not expending brainpower on this, but I will have cross words with somebody postgame if this is the case.
2) KCC is town, Emiko is scum: Same as above; I'm not aware of any softbans on godfathers/ltd. cop but in a non-micro/non-specialty that doesn't seem fair.
3) last and KCC are both scum: I don't see this being possible for a variety of reasons, like lack of cc, game balance, etc.
/barn
Quote from Megiddo »
World 1A:
Last is town, Vezok is town
KCC is scum, Emiko is Town
World 1B
Last is town, vezok is town
KCC is scum, emiko is scum
World 2A
Last is scum, vezok is town
KCC is town, emiko is town
World 2B
Last is scum, vezok is scum
KCC is town, emiko is town
I think world 1B is unlikely. Scum KCC doesn't need to gambit to townclear emiko. I think Emiko was not at huge risk of being lynched here. I think it makes more sense to softclear a townie than to protect a buddy. KCC would have known while discussing this claim and while doing it that it would create this weird 4-player dichotomy. She would know that there would be potential that the town treats all claims as true, and that to maximize POE she would want to NK specifically Vezok, as that preserves the question of Last's alignment and keeps him open as a mislynch option (shooting Last, as has been covered already, does not leave Vezok as a ML option).
I agree with this assessment, and I certainly know that if I were fake-claiming a blue cop result, doing so on my buddy would feel all kinds of horrible risky. Pretty sure neither 1B nor 2B is likely.
Quote from Megiddo »
I don't feel especially strong about worlds 2B or 2B (aka, scum last). The way he just ran the claim out there in his third post doesn't seem like a calculated move?
That's really the biggest thing keeping me from just going all in on Wisp. And maybe that was his plan, to specifically be audacious in the face of just getting into trouble for claiming hastily. If so, I applaud his boldness, because it's definitely giving me pause.
I want to look back at posts myself, but I generally agree with this. *I* probably would have breadcrumbed a wink in my first post or two, but probably the best way to handle this (if you don't have to claim or just say it like Wisp did) is to make a strong/cryptic town read on Vez near the end of the Day so that if you die N1 it's obvious who your peek was, so it's not that surprising that Shadow hadn't before he replaced out.
Quote from Megiddo »
> cantrip's 1299 post read like a mark zuckerberg senate testimony: answering the questions but failing to read the room. could be scum.
Unpack this for me, Meg. How did I fail to read the room there?
Quote from Megiddo »
> KCC gives me the jibblies. I'm still stuck on how EOD1 went. could be scum.
Can you be specific on this, too, please? What didn't you like about EoD1?
@Cantrip Not thinking of the implications is why I think it's scummy. I think town would think of those implications and not voice the question in-thread, especially not in a way that invites speculation like that.
ok that assessment is fair from your pov but its also definitely depends on the player and their personality, and not a strong in anyway, I vary rarely think about the implications of my posts when I am town since I dont see need be self-aware of what I am saying
I mostly agree that it's not a strong indicator (and also definitely player-dependent), but it certainly makes me lean toward you being scum over KCC.
KCC, I know you're on V/LA (until deadline!), but when you have the chance, can you talk about the difference in your perspective on Vezok in 208 and 281?
Also Cantrip no offense but...your grasp on my scum range sucks. You owe it to me to not tinfoil for the sake of tinfoiling.
So walk me through your thoughts nice and slow.
I'm not tinfoiling. When I was reviewing KCC, I saw a lot of back and forth between the two of you that I felt could come from buddies. I'm nowhere near actively pursuing that, though, unless KCC flips scum. And I'm townreading KCC, so I don't really have huge concerns that you're her buddy. If you really want me to highlight what I saw, I guess I can go back and see if actually laying it out results in a strong "yes buddies" or "no not" feeling, but I don't feel like that's the most productive use of my limited time right now.
I started off looking at Shadow's posts from the perspectives of true N0 Peek Cop on Vezok vs. scum possibly planning on fake-claiming something cop-like (possibly because Shadow may not have had such a plan/could have just been Wisp deciding to run with something). With that in mind, I was mostly looking to see if there was anything that specifically supported Shadow as the true N0 Peek (or specifically demolished it), since if that slot is scum, there's no guarantee that he was aiming for what Wisp ended up doing, so speculation in that direction would have been doubly speculative.
However, as I was iso'ing, I realized that there's a bit of conversation about Vez possibly being scum around pages 4/5, so I reread everything until Shadow replaced out, hoping to find times when Shadow should have claimed his check.
I'm putting this here after previewing my post: Below are my thoughts and musings; not everything reflects what I think is likely. I will be happy to which is which upon request, but I sorta ran out of time and I don't want to lose all this, so my apologies for the thought vomit. :/
Vez RVS could still be early distancing/voting buddy!Shadow.
(Aside: this would be hilarious if Vaimes was completely being honest.)
If Wisp saw this post before claiming, I think it's highly unlikely he chooses to townfirm Vez over any other random town...and I certainly don't see Shadow deciding that Vez is the best choice to fake townfirm and passing that idea on to Wisp to cling to when Shadow hadn't said anything in-thread that committed him there...and really, I think Wisp is familiar enough with Vez to know that Vez pretty easily comes under fire...hrm, did I just talk myself out of the likelihood of scum!Wisp faking a clear on town!Vez? And as risky as it would be to fake a cop check (period), it's twice as risky to fake a N0 peek on a buddy, since you couldn't even fall back on "oh maybe Vez is godfather lol" (because that goes beyond bastard modding).
Um. Ok, well, on with the read, I guess.
Shadow seems to be implying something with his [redacted], but I don't feel like having an N0 peek precludes D1 participation? Oh, right, possibly this was because Modern wasn't over yet.
This and this also feel unlikely to come from scum, even knowing that Shadow is wily.
Reading all these back and forths between Tom and Silver with KK pop-ins attacking Silver really reinforces that town are their own worst enemy.
Vaimes has an epiphany that Shadow is town and votes Vez for "pouncing" on Shadow. His next post also doesn't feel like something scum would feel inclined to do.
Something about this post from KCC feels off (this would be one of the things that might point to you being buddies with KCC, Vaimes, but could also come from scum!KCC trying to fake ties with you).
There are a few other mentions of Vez in negative light, but nothing significant. Shadow pops in to debunk my Silver/Tom scum theatre tinfoil, but no mention of Vez.
Mild scum-reference to Vez from Silver, but then a few posts later Silver keeps Vez just a smidge under null.
If Vez and Shadow/Wisp are buddies, this is the kind of post I'd expect Vez to make to get off of voting Shadow, but that's not a strong impression.
This and this would also be cute little winks if Vez/Shadow were buddies.
And then Shadow replaces out in 547.
So I had thought there was a little more pressure on Vez than there really was (lots of people pondering and finding little things, but no solid pushes that weren't immediately eclipsed by other reads), and I was hoping Shadow's lack of anything-Vez was indicative in a vacuum, but as I said before, I could totally see Shadow holding onto the peek until Vez came under serious scrutiny (and crumbing EoD1 in case he, Shadow, got killed), but there just wasn't a lot of Vez-centric conversation.
So this was a lot of work to...really muddy how I feel about the likelihood that Wisp is scum.
Wisp, Did you ever explain why you claimed when you did? I can't remember and can't easily find it right now if you did.
Meh, I wanted to take some time to sum up where I ended up on the two cops, but I really don't know where I am now. Still feel pretty strongly that they can't both be town? But also feel like there are solid reasons for both to be town/for neither to fake claims.
More when I have time. It's the weekend, but we're getting closer to deadline, so I'll do my best to contribute sooner rather than later.
You go and grab a cup of coffee from the green room, and start wondering to yourself, why is it called "green" room exactly, even though it isn't really green? After thinking about it for a moment you realise your brain hurts and go back to scrolling your social media live feed.
I simultaneously think the claims are real, but also that one of them has to be fake. They both have +town things going for them. Behaviorally, I think Last is scummier, but I think his claimed role makes more sense than KCC's check/claim.
Also doesn't really help that almost everyone is dipping out just days before deadline.
Cantrip, one of the reasons I'm trying to nip this scumread of me in the bud is because you are probably my only confident townread right now. I would like to work together on this, because if I start flooding the thread with my Help Me I'm Alone On Town Island thoughts, we're all going to go insane.
I really want to clear both Emiko and vezok, since scum claiming an inno on a buddy is lol, and the players who got checked are independently towny anyways. But I don't feel like either of them can provide the back-and-forth solving I want to engage in.
If I take out Cantrip/Emiko/vezok, that leaves three scum in Rhand/Meg/KCC/KJ/Last. I think we should kill Meg or Rhand now, and we might just have to bite the cop bullet toMorrow.
work also being weird for me. my department feels like it’s falling apart? guy i just worked with for months who put in awesome work is getting let go.
so, sorry for not participating during the day.
@cantrip: i’ll answer one thing now and the rest later: failing to read the room meaning that when there’s one BIG HUGE TOPIC to address you start your post with a bunch of unrelated queries and only get around to looking at it about halfway through.
i need to talk to you more.
and killjoy.
somebody asked about my thoughts on likelihood of the claims:
i think it is VERY POSSIBLE for an informed townie and a 1-shot cop to exist in the same setup, ESPECIALLY with a vig. vig gives a non-lynch way to sniff out and help solve a potential dichotomy.
i’m back and forth with myself on what another PR would do to the setup. will think.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
On the flip side, I still feel like it's pretty ballsy for scum!Wisp to claim a N0 peek coming out of Modern. Yes, there's the possibility of being coached by teammates/deciding to run counter to expectations, but...Wisp was pretty badly burned by locking in claim elements early. Like, quasi-game losing burned.
if he believes that it will pay off then he would do it ?
I really want to clear both Emiko and vezok, since scum claiming an inno on a buddy is lol, and the players who got checked are independently towny anyways.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
That end of post rhetorical feels like the kind of thing scum would say to try and flush out protective roles. You're not going on record as having globally role-fished (even declaiming it in advance as WIFOM), but you could use the responses and ways players respond to try and identify doctors/bodyguards. I don't see any reason for town!cop to invite public speculation on why they weren't killed.
i honestly didnt think of this implications, you can reach all you want though though
I'm wondering if Last and KCC aren't both real. If I take a step back, I like Last's claim, and I think an informed vanilla is a weird/kind of out there role to set up a fakeclaim for (on shadow's part) waaay in advance.
If the mod confirmed one of them was scum, I'd probably kill KCC just because the Emiko check is really meh imo.
It might be safer to proceed as if all four of them are town, massclaim toMorrow (if we mislunch), and work from there.
It feels a little off for KCC to mention the bolded if she's a power role, maybe.
I feel like Tom is an unlikely candidate for scum to choose to unilaterally town in this way. Maaaaaybe if KCC sussed him as a power role and wanted to go on record early as liking him knowing he'd be high on the kill list, but...generally not the kind of play choice I think would come from scum.
I'm not sure this thought...
Matches up with this response shortly thereafter:
I didn't see a lot that pinged me one way or the other after that until Wisp claims. I believe that KCC was regarded as a fairly good player back in the day, so I wouldn't expect her to make it obvious that she's cc'ing Wisp, but it still feels a little odd that it takes so long for her to say anything about it. Here are the nine posts KCC makes after Wisp claims (none of which weigh in on Wisp's claim in any way):
This feels pretty unlikely to come from scum (unless KCC's scum with me, I realize, but *I* know that's not a concern).
Same here, I don't think scum!KCC continues to push hard to lunch vanilla KK/push hard against wagoning me when a plausible case on me is presented.
tl;dr: KCC played D1 mostly how I would expect a cop to with the possible exception of how long it took for her to say anything about Wisp's claim...which is sticking in my craw more than it probably should. I guess that piece is dependent on how savvy a player KCC is. I think she was pretty quick to wink at Vaimes in Modern shortly after she neighborized Vaimes and me, but that was a neighborizing ability. I still think KCC is more likely town than Wisp, but not quite as much as I expected to going into the iso.
IF KCC is scum, I think it's >rand odds that Vaimes is her buddy. There was a LOT of interactions between the two that it wouldn't take much squinting to see coming from buddies talking in-thread.
On the flip side, I still feel like it's pretty ballsy for scum!Wisp to claim a N0 peek coming out of Modern. Yes, there's the possibility of being coached by teammates/deciding to run counter to expectations, but...Wisp was pretty badly burned by locking in claim elements early. Like, quasi-game losing burned.
So a big part of me wants to go with Vaimes's suggestion and leave them both alive until tomorrow. My reluctance there is that if we decide there can't be two town cop elements in the game (and a town vig!), then we have to correctly lunch between them in lylo.
I need to think on this. We have ~5 days to hash things out, so let's keep talking. I'm still feeling like it's more likely that not BOTH the cops are town, especially with a vig, which is borderline info role, too.
It may not be a strong tell, but I don't think it's a reach.
Wisp, KCC, how likely do each of you think it is that the town power role line up is N0 Peek/1-shot Cop/1-shot Vig/??? Especially in a game billed as low-complexity?
As for us both being true claiming, I still think it's very unlikely, like 5%. It's too much power, and the setup was basically designed to implode in that case anyway, so why fight it?
If we lunch one of them, either way the gambit is ruined, and wasted on a PR that used its shot in pregame.
At best, I won't be phone posting
It seems like quite literally everyone agrees that Meg is scum, so that might be the best way to go.
Think it's important to hash out specific scumteams, though, that take into account worlds where all PR claims are true, and where one of them isn't. I want to see some Thought Processes.
I was also already townreading Emiko, so the clear on her really doesn't change anything.
I am town.
Silver was absolutely mislynchable. He was null to me. I can't recall many others town reading him.
Can you tell me the towniest thing you believe he's done?
He was busy and replaced out? Or rolled over and died? Something. Someone else can remind me if it matters.
Part of me wants to massclaim Today since my setup gaming brain tells me there's most likely just one more piece of town power out there at most. And it's possible there's none left. that would help POE/sorting through the claims.
I'm glad vezok/vaimes are skeptical of KCC's claim. I was thinking about that on my way home and I don't especially like the way it was handled, which I'll mostly sum up by saying i feel like KCC is too smart to check Emiko.
But let's start the analysis assuming that Last's claim is true and accurate and KCC's claim is also true and accurate. that puts us here:
(vanilla x2, vig)
vezokpiraka (confirmed by last)
EmikoYuriemoto (confirmed by kcc)
Last (shadow) (informed vanilla)
KittyCupCake (1-shot cop)
Megiddo
Rhand
Cantripmancer
Vaimes
Killjoy
It's not me, but you don't know that.
This is somewhat awkward, since from the perspective of anybody doing this exercise the game is literally solved: lynch down the row of "not mes" and you get the entire scumteam.
...
See I feel like it isn't that easy, since there isn't that much pushback in the thread against locking in the confirmeds and rolling with this scenario. if the scumteam really is in that five and the town locks in the blues they are completely trapped. they can't NK outside of the confirmeds or it's gg, and assuming we're capable of coming to consensus about ONE of the 5 unconfirmed players being town... that's all she wrote.
That said, it's not like this was planned. KJ is right that scum couldn't have known about KCC/Emi clears as well as silver being killed (presumably vig'd).
So I wouldn't say this is an impossible scenario. But again, I don't feel a ton of urgency from anybody right now. There's a lot of shrugs, which is sort of how this whole game has been going the whole time but I'm not seeing anybody within that five trying to really establish a narrative and push things forward. there are the constant murmurs of "meg is scum" without a push attached, but if this scenario is true I don't even mind being mislynched here that much since all we need to do is hit 3/4 to win the game and I don't want to be in lylo if half of the players have me on the scumlist.
The other thing scum would want to do here is sow uncertainty about the claims and try to get us to lynch there. Obviously, lynching KCC, finding that she is town, and then immediately going to lynch Last would be gg.
Off the cuff, a team that makes sense in this world is Rhand (limited activity) Cantrip (not that pushy) Killjoy (also not that pushy), since I could see this crew not trying to propel the game forward strongly. it could fit.
A very quick readback shows me:
Rhand: has not posted.
Cantrip: looking at... wisp and me? rhand... vaimes. notably NOT vezok despite wisp. I am curious how cantrip thinks vezok will be flipping scum in his scenario though. he is OK with leaving all of the confirmed players alive for Today.
Killjoy: Like, totally off in his own world here. Believes KCC, wants to lynch... wisp and vezok? This is a weird scumline since wisp town would eliminate vezok. I think based on arrow directions he's more strong on cantrip/vaimes? It also sounds like he is leaning to leave the blues alive.
Vaimes: skeptical of the KCC claim. fwiw i think that's healthy skepticism. I had the same concerns and I am glad that vaimes/vezok covered them. I'll... probably get back to those concerns later in this post. Vaimes also goes through this exercise in a much more succinct way in his own post, which seems... fine. I am thinking on that one. I think, end of day, it sounds like he wants to lynch within the 5 uncleared though.
So, alright. Everybody who has posted is at least, let's call it half-interested in lynching outside of the blues. That to me suggests that we may be on the wrong track a bit, though of course you don't have to start a mislynch wagon to make one happen.
...Circling back a bit, if we ARE in this world and there is a PR within the 5 uncleared, they should just claim now. that takes it from 2 available to 1.
...
So that's the world where everybody is truthful. the rest require some more work.
here are some worlds I won't consider:
1) Last is town, vezok is scum: I'm not expending brainpower on this, but I will have cross words with somebody postgame if this is the case.
2) KCC is town, Emiko is scum: Same as above; I'm not aware of any softbans on godfathers/ltd. cop but in a non-micro/non-specialty that doesn't seem fair.
3) last and KCC are both scum: I don't see this being possible for a variety of reasons, like lack of cc, game balance, etc.
so that leaves:
World 1A:
Last is town, Vezok is town
KCC is scum, Emiko is Town
World 1B
Last is town, vezok is town
KCC is scum, emiko is scum
World 2A
Last is scum, vezok is town
KCC is town, emiko is town
World 2B
Last is scum, vezok is scum
KCC is town, emiko is town
I think world 1B is unlikely. Scum KCC doesn't need to gambit to townclear emiko. I think Emiko was not at huge risk of being lynched here. I think it makes more sense to softclear a townie than to protect a buddy. KCC would have known while discussing this claim and while doing it that it would create this weird 4-player dichotomy. She would know that there would be potential that the town treats all claims as true, and that to maximize POE she would want to NK specifically Vezok, as that preserves the question of Last's alignment and keeps him open as a mislynch option (shooting Last, as has been covered already, does not leave Vezok as a ML option).
I don't feel especially strong about worlds 2B or 2B (aka, scum last). The way he just ran the claim out there in his third post doesn't seem like a calculated move? One thing that gives me pause is that shadow made almost zero mention of vezok in all of his posts. almost zero!
203: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=203
444: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=444
With this kind of role i'd usually expect something very coy to look back on and say "see?"
though maybe the scum play here has gotten too savvy for that to work. That said, the two posts from shadow are plausibly from somebody who knows that vezok is town.
In short, I kind of buy it? it wouldn't be scum/scum because shadow wouldn't say what he said if he knew vezok were SCUM. and scum/town doesn't feel right with how last handled it.
So that leaves world 1A.
The first thing to note about this is that the poe doesn't actually open up all that much.
the scum are KCC + 2[Meg, Vaimes, Rhand, KJ, Cantrip]. Though +1 when the margin is this tight is a significant amount. (again, we can assume that silver was expected to be alive and likely pushed as a potential ml candidate today).
it would behoove scum in this world to try and focus on the last scum world. lynching Last here is not actually a guarantee of a KCC lynch, and I'm sure KCC feels reasonably confident about her ability to argue out of a lynch even if pinned down this way. note of course that even if lynched, you then have to find just one mislynch with plenty of available candidates.
KCC obviously came into this whole thing trying to CC, and is arguing for Last. nobody else was super strongly agreeing on that, which... well I guess it just means we aren't dealing with power wolf trying to steer the game home right away.
Something to note. For both All Blue world and 1A, the scumteam would (i assume) prefer us to focus on either of the 2A/B worlds, as those have the most ml options.
So.
I'm short on actual opinions right now, sorry. but this is my worldview going in to some rereads. I have like 5 tabs open of various people's isos that I have been neglecting. should be back to phoneposting tomorrow at least.
quick hit thoughts:
> rhand needs to post
> vaimes looks like he's trying to take control of the game rn. could be a scum
> killjoy... seems pure? probably not a scum.
> cantrip's 1299 post read like a mark zuckerberg senate testimony: answering the questions but failing to read the room. could be scum.
> KCC gives me the jibblies. I'm still stuck on how EOD1 went. could be scum.
emiko/vezok/last are excused from this round of quick hit thoughts.
why didnt you say anything about rhand, regardless if he hasnt posted in a bit?
no
lot of words but the analysis just feels fake and easy
heres to hoping round 2 is better
because this would amazing scum theater
I dont believe this, maybe the lynchable part, but like why does it matter, flips point to him being shot by Tom?
I didnt town read him persay, but I was taking from shadow's book, and not lynching a Top posting silver actually pushing things
@Cantrip
Not thinking of the implications is why I think it's scummy. I think town would think of those implications and not voice the question in-thread, especially not in a way that invites speculation like that.
ok that assessment is fair from your pov but its also definitely depends on the player and their personality, and not a strong in anyway, I vary rarely think about the implications of my posts when I am town since I dont see need be self-aware of what I am saying
rhand, unless i'm blind, had zero of those.
rhand is in my "probably scum" column at the moment,
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Despite my snarky comment just before this, I think these are really good points. Unfortunately, they're coming from someone who could possibly be a buddy with KCC, so if it's a scum gambit, you had plenty of time to hash out these really good points ahead of time. But again on the flip side, it's hard to believe that a you/KCC/??? team would think it worth the risk, seeing as how if we lunch Wisp and he flips town, not only is Vez confirmed town, but KCC gets a lot of scrutiny. So...I'm still at "KCC town, Wisp probably scum".
Describe it to me/highlight a post or two you feel exemplifies it?
If there *is* one more town PR, what does that do to the theory of 2x town cops for you? If no one else is power, does that make it likely, in your opinion, that both Wisp and KCC are town?
I feel like this is a little insulting to KCC. She explained her reasoning, and I can actually see that possibility.
Out of curiosity, why specifically highlight this possibility but not the opposite (lunching Wisp, finding that he is town, and then immediately going to lunch KCC)?
...? I'm not strongly pushing lunching one of the cop claims, but I said I think it's unlikely that they're both town, and even though I like the idea of leaving them both alive, I think it would put us in a bad position toMorrow if we don't correctly lunch scum toDay. What are you talking about with how I think Vez will be flipping scum in my scenario??? I'm pretty much 95% sure Vez is town, regardless of Wisp's alignment.
I'm not sure this is good advice. Maybe it's the case...but maybe not.
/barn
I agree with this assessment, and I certainly know that if I were fake-claiming a blue cop result, doing so on my buddy would feel all kinds of horrible risky. Pretty sure neither 1B nor 2B is likely.
That's really the biggest thing keeping me from just going all in on Wisp. And maybe that was his plan, to specifically be audacious in the face of just getting into trouble for claiming hastily. If so, I applaud his boldness, because it's definitely giving me pause.
I want to look back at posts myself, but I generally agree with this. *I* probably would have breadcrumbed a wink in my first post or two, but probably the best way to handle this (if you don't have to claim or just say it like Wisp did) is to make a strong/cryptic town read on Vez near the end of the Day so that if you die N1 it's obvious who your peek was, so it's not that surprising that Shadow hadn't before he replaced out.
Unpack this for me, Meg. How did I fail to read the room there?
Can you be specific on this, too, please? What didn't you like about EoD1?
Can you point me to some strong examples of interactions that you feel would be "amazing scum theatre" between you and Vaimes?
I mostly agree that it's not a strong indicator (and also definitely player-dependent), but it certainly makes me lean toward you being scum over KCC.
KCC, I know you're on V/LA (until deadline!), but when you have the chance, can you talk about the difference in your perspective on Vezok in 208 and 281?
Planning to look at Shadow/Wisp posts next.
If I don’t manage to invest time in this tomorrow, I will replace out.
So walk me through your thoughts nice and slow.
I'm not tinfoiling. When I was reviewing KCC, I saw a lot of back and forth between the two of you that I felt could come from buddies. I'm nowhere near actively pursuing that, though, unless KCC flips scum. And I'm townreading KCC, so I don't really have huge concerns that you're her buddy. If you really want me to highlight what I saw, I guess I can go back and see if actually laying it out results in a strong "yes buddies" or "no not" feeling, but I don't feel like that's the most productive use of my limited time right now.
Also: no offense taken.
I’d rather wait til postgame to talk about Last’s read on me but I uh. If you think we could be together, lol you.
However, as I was iso'ing, I realized that there's a bit of conversation about Vez possibly being scum around pages 4/5, so I reread everything until Shadow replaced out, hoping to find times when Shadow should have claimed his check.
I'm putting this here after previewing my post: Below are my thoughts and musings; not everything reflects what I think is likely. I will be happy to which is which upon request, but I sorta ran out of time and I don't want to lose all this, so my apologies for the thought vomit. :/
Vez RVS could still be early distancing/voting buddy!Shadow.
(Aside: this would be hilarious if Vaimes was completely being honest.)
Emiko, can you detail why you thought this?
KJ questioning town!Silver's town read on KJ is a good sign for KJ. Most of that post feels pretty solidly townie, actually.
KCC talks about Vaimes and votes Vez, but doesn't provide any reasoning.
First real pressure on Vez is 3 posts from Tom.
KCC is the next post and she explains why the Vez vote (she doesn't believe that his RVS stance is real, something I agreed with at the time).
Shadow asks Tom about "not Vez like".
I chime in on not believing Vez's RVS stance.
If Wisp saw this post before claiming, I think it's highly unlikely he chooses to townfirm Vez over any other random town...and I certainly don't see Shadow deciding that Vez is the best choice to fake townfirm and passing that idea on to Wisp to cling to when Shadow hadn't said anything in-thread that committed him there...and really, I think Wisp is familiar enough with Vez to know that Vez pretty easily comes under fire...hrm, did I just talk myself out of the likelihood of scum!Wisp faking a clear on town!Vez? And as risky as it would be to fake a cop check (period), it's twice as risky to fake a N0 peek on a buddy, since you couldn't even fall back on "oh maybe Vez is godfather lol" (because that goes beyond bastard modding).
Um. Ok, well, on with the read, I guess.
Shadow seems to be implying something with his [redacted], but I don't feel like having an N0 peek precludes D1 participation? Oh, right, possibly this was because Modern wasn't over yet.
This and this also feel unlikely to come from scum, even knowing that Shadow is wily.
Also like Vaimes defusing Tom v. Silver.
Reading all these back and forths between Tom and Silver with KK pop-ins attacking Silver really reinforces that town are their own worst enemy.
Vaimes has an epiphany that Shadow is town and votes Vez for "pouncing" on Shadow. His next post also doesn't feel like something scum would feel inclined to do.
Something about this post from KCC feels off (this would be one of the things that might point to you being buddies with KCC, Vaimes, but could also come from scum!KCC trying to fake ties with you).
There are a few other mentions of Vez in negative light, but nothing significant. Shadow pops in to debunk my Silver/Tom scum theatre tinfoil, but no mention of Vez.
Mild scum-reference to Vez from Silver, but then a few posts later Silver keeps Vez just a smidge under null.
Tom finds Vez pretty suspect.
If Vez and Shadow/Wisp are buddies, this is the kind of post I'd expect Vez to make to get off of voting Shadow, but that's not a strong impression.
This and this would also be cute little winks if Vez/Shadow were buddies.
And then Shadow replaces out in 547.
So I had thought there was a little more pressure on Vez than there really was (lots of people pondering and finding little things, but no solid pushes that weren't immediately eclipsed by other reads), and I was hoping Shadow's lack of anything-Vez was indicative in a vacuum, but as I said before, I could totally see Shadow holding onto the peek until Vez came under serious scrutiny (and crumbing EoD1 in case he, Shadow, got killed), but there just wasn't a lot of Vez-centric conversation.
So this was a lot of work to...really muddy how I feel about the likelihood that Wisp is scum.
Wisp, Did you ever explain why you claimed when you did? I can't remember and can't easily find it right now if you did.
More when I have time. It's the weekend, but we're getting closer to deadline, so I'll do my best to contribute sooner rather than later.
You go and grab a cup of coffee from the green room, and start wondering to yourself, why is it called "green" room exactly, even though it isn't really green? After thinking about it for a moment you realise your brain hurts and go back to scrolling your social media live feed.
Lastwhisper (2): EmikoYuriemoto, KittyCupCake
Vaimes (1): Rhand
Megiddo (1): vezokpiraka
Rhand (1): Vaimes
Not Voting (4): Killjoy, Megiddo, Lastwhisper, Cantripmancer
V/LA: KittyCupCake (22.10.), vezokpiraka (20.10.)
With 9 alive, it’s 5 to lynch. Deadline is on October 22nd.
I simultaneously think the claims are real, but also that one of them has to be fake. They both have +town things going for them. Behaviorally, I think Last is scummier, but I think his claimed role makes more sense than KCC's check/claim.
Also doesn't really help that almost everyone is dipping out just days before deadline.
Cantrip, one of the reasons I'm trying to nip this scumread of me in the bud is because you are probably my only confident townread right now. I would like to work together on this, because if I start flooding the thread with my Help Me I'm Alone On Town Island thoughts, we're all going to go insane.
I really want to clear both Emiko and vezok, since scum claiming an inno on a buddy is lol, and the players who got checked are independently towny anyways. But I don't feel like either of them can provide the back-and-forth solving I want to engage in.
If I take out Cantrip/Emiko/vezok, that leaves three scum in Rhand/Meg/KCC/KJ/Last. I think we should kill Meg or Rhand now, and we might just have to bite the cop bullet toMorrow.
so, sorry for not participating during the day.
@cantrip: i’ll answer one thing now and the rest later: failing to read the room meaning that when there’s one BIG HUGE TOPIC to address you start your post with a bunch of unrelated queries and only get around to looking at it about halfway through.
i need to talk to you more.
and killjoy.
somebody asked about my thoughts on likelihood of the claims:
i think it is VERY POSSIBLE for an informed townie and a 1-shot cop to exist in the same setup, ESPECIALLY with a vig. vig gives a non-lynch way to sniff out and help solve a potential dichotomy.
i’m back and forth with myself on what another PR would do to the setup. will think.
I'll ldo stuff after work today.
if he believes that it will pay off then he would do it ?
how is vezok independently towny ?