KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Vaimes: I recall you having a town read of me. What happened to it?
I don't recall revoking it?
I may have left your name in a PoE on one of my posts. I'm juggling several worlds here, and while I do think you're town, it's equally possible you're just having a really good scumgame.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Cool. I'll leave it there to not distract from the fact that I just roasted you, and you decided handwave it and then repeat what other people have already said as your one specific reason.
you did not push him neither before nor during the vote neither.
My vote IS the push
I was going through the KCC ISO and noticed this post. Specifically that line "still not liking KK."
It struck me because KCC had not up until that point voiced any suspicion of KK. KCC had talked with KK quite a bit, but until this post there was no suspicion voiced. So why say "still?" This seems small but I think this is a crack that reveals a fake read. Like, is KCC genuinely scumreading KK the whole time up until this post but just failing to mention it at all? Her posts really don't sound like the posts you make toward somebody you think might be scum. I'll quote them all here for you; everything KCC said to KK up until this post:
Note: all non-KK items have been edited out for brevity.
And it was my question. I understood why that "you can wait for vaimes" was attached, which I appreciate, but I wasn't concerned with my answer effecting vaimes's
Can you explain in more detail why your no vote RVS post is acceptable and vaimes’s is not? I don’t understand that.
Sure. I had a good reason. I wasn't going to pass up on completing the joke from the sign-ups, especially when I had the first post of the game, 3 minutes after it opened.
Mkay. Your push on vaimes still seems flimsy and opportunistic to me, and I could see you taking this strong stance to preemptively defend your own post.
I know you unvoted, but what? If I was scum worried about needing to defend that post, my preemptive defense would be... not posting that in the first place.
Your post to answer the question before vaimes answered yours struck me as you caring more how you’re perceived than for getting his response to the pressure you were supposedly interested in applying.
I could understand this reasoning in some circumstances, but in what way could my response have possibly influenced Vaimes? It was apples and oranges
Here we do see a post which expresses some skepticism of KK...
Sorry, I meant to have quotations around "Best defense is a good offense." I didn't mean it to read like a factual statement, just a possible state of mind.
Oh, I know, and that's just absolutely not how I approach the game.
So KJ’s latest post has possible scumtell(s) worth considering?
Can I get a tl;dr on what killjoy does that should be ignored as NAI? I find myself just ignoring his posts right now with all of the talk of how easy a mislybch he is.
we actually just had a good discussion about this I can refer you to a little later
(if you didn't open the spoiler, go back and do that; I left two editorial comments you should read for context.)
I would think the natural mindset progression here would be to say "not liking KK after this post" or something like that. There's definitely reason to be cagey about reads, so I could see a town KCC not tipping her hand during her earlier exchanges. However, she's talking to KK in a way that doesn't feel skeptical enough to support the statement that she is "still" not liking him. When did that start? I can't tell.
This one thing got me looking deeper into KCC. We can continue with the very same post. But to do that, we have to pull back a bit.
Emiko caught on to something with KCC's play this game that we haven't really explored this game much, which is that KCC's votes and KCC's pressure mostly don't match up, at least in the early game.
[quote from="vezokpiraka »" url="/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-1-te-deum?comment=202"]I usually wait for a claim or claim myself to get out of RVS, but this is low complexity and I don't really expect claims.
We do RVS because that's how we've always done it. It's not like any RVS reason is actually solid ever, bar a scumclaim.
I'm having trouble believing that a majority of your games have had a claim that early
And you only asked me something and didn't wait for a response before voting. I don't know what you expected to happen or why you took your time.
I only took my time because I wasn't ready to move my vote off Vaimes, otherwise the vote would have been in that same post, it had nothing to do with you
So, again, not really pushing a stated read. There's no other comments on Vezok until...
I believe that vezok believes that RVS is pointless and usually ended by someone claiming, because usually the player ending RVS by claiming is vezok.
I think she's claimed on D1 in just about every game I've seen, and have no trouble at all believing that she thinks anything that happens before that is essentially random noise.
Wait. Wait. Wait.
Back when I played, we would force Vez to claim early because scumVez claims were a hilarious catastrophe and a free lynch. Did that actually just get incorporated into Vez's standard play?
KCC then drops vezok and votes ME within the next couple of posts. Look at what happened here. KCC votes for Vezok, reason unstated, has a bit of a back and forth, and then unvotes after a silver post. I'm inferring here that the reason for voting Vezok was to do with Vezok's attitude toward RVS, but the "wait wait wait" and subsequent reasoning doesn't seem great.
Note that there's no unvote here either. But again, Vezok is completely dropped at this point.
So we move to:
My Vez suspicion was minor in the absolute sense, but it was the most interesting thing I saw at that moment. It's early Day 1
And I didn't push him because I didn't need to. The response from him and others made me not want to go in that direction
When I find someone I want to lynch, you'll definitely know it
So this supports that maybe KCC has had some reasoning all along. But see the line, "I didn't push him because I didn't need to?"
Let's go back to where we started this whole thing. "My vote IS the push."
So within the span of a few posts KCC argues in one case that her vote was not a push, but a different vote WAS the push. This feels like a sidestep response to me, one meant to ward off suspicion rather than a real explanation of logical and consistent behavior.
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I'm going to take a brief intermission here to show you some posts from Modern Mafia, which I have also reviewed.
here are KCC's non-RVS votes from D1 of Modern Mafia up until the Az wagon. I'll provide some editorial commentary, but a lot of us were in that game and it's easy enough to read back if you want more context.
A combination of the sample PM not being vanilla and my general perception of recent themed games I've seen made me think the game was role madness.
Beeboy?
KCC, rightly, calls out Beeboy's shifting story here. Click through this post and just read until you see the next post I quote here for context; it's not long. Sir Chris comes in and defends against this push by saying that this shifting story business comes from town mindset (liars stick to their story; the truth evolves because memory is imperfect). After some more back and forth, where I want to stress that there's direct questioning of Beeboy and others, KCC posts this:
From this point KCC was a major factor in what I can only call a really solid D1 scum lynch wagon.
End intermission.
So here's what I want you to take away from what I have just shown you.
In Modern mafia, KCC's votes were clear, and it was easy to follow her progression on them. She engaged with her reads both before and after her votes. Just from reading her Iso you can see how her reads evolved over time and how she was reacting to the events of the game to draw conclusions.
In THIS game, KCC's votes are not especially clear. I don't find it easy to follow her progression. She did not engage with reads (in a way that tracks with what I expect from somebody engaging with a scumread). I can't see how, just from the Iso, KCC's mindset and conclusions are evolving.
The last vote to talk about for this exercise is here:
The mindset of this response is absolutely a scumtell. There's no push back, no challenge, no standing up for his read. KK just accepts that his description of rhands play is wrong and defends with that not being a tell.
I can't see this post coming from someone who believes in their read.
Between the post I started this whole thing with ("Still not liking KK") and this post, KCC interacts with KK several times. I'm not going to quote them all again, but as far as I am concerned it is similar to the previous time I did do that--a lot of questions, none of which I would describe as "trying to solve" or anything that would indicate that KCC thinks KK is scum. Skeptical? Maybe. But it doesn't feel like a real set of interactions.
Then we get to this vote. What's interesting here is that NOTHING that KCC has brought up at any point prior to this one "mindset slip" ever comes into the equation. It's this and nothing but this. Seriously, look:
@Anyone pushing a KK counterwagon from this point forward: I'm going to need to see not just why you think they are a better lynch, but why you think they are so much more likely to be scum that it's worth dumping more claims into the thread at this point. Or, why you don't care
This is just the best example. There's literally nothing else.
I'm not going to go through all of Day 2, because this is way too much already, but I do want to note two things of interest:
1. KCC has mentioned a "reread" let's call it 3.5 times, in lieu of providing solid positions.
2. Finally when we do get something, it is this:
In the meantime, I'd like to know what you think of everyone else. And maybe what you believe the scumteam to be.
I think you're Town for taking Emi of the table in your read list.
I think KJ is town, because I'm confident I can still read him until proven otherwise.
I think rhand is scum with Last. He wanted to leave the door open to multiple info roles, and pounced on Emi Today. I know being wrong doesn't mean scum, but it's also exactly what I was expecting scum to do and kinda the point of checking Emi.
I don't think Trip is scum with rhand.
I don't think Vez is gambiting with Last.
So... Meg scum
Which I'll note still fails to provide any reasons I am scum or really many reasons on anybody.
So far on D2 there's no lookback or introspection on the KK wagon, which she started and made sure to finish. I would think that one might want to look into where one went so awry on that sort of thing. No, the Day starts with 100% focus on Last and the claim, and now we're fully embroiled in that discussion.
I have been thinking if there's any valid playstyle changeup argument here, and I suppose I'll listen to whatever argument KCC presents on that front, but I am very skeptical that one would go from the monster towngame in Mondern to... this, where we see a lot of shallow-to-nonexistent reads, a lot of staying open and soft-pressure votes, contradictory explainations for behavior (is a vote a push... or not?) and one wagon that looks opportunistic to me in hindsight that she drove straight through to a lynch.
I'm not seeing town here.
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Despite all of that I actually started tonight with trying to look at Cantrip.
Conclusion: I don't think he's scum here? At least not as strongly as I did.
I tracked down his recent scumgames (including to MAL) and he doesn't really come off the same there as here. But I didn't get to do a full re-read of his ISO here. Short version is I'm less solid on that one than I was before earlier.
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KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
if you mean "who else," I don't know. I've got one possibility outlined up there, let's talk about that. i'm rereading the rest of the game now and may have more for you after that? but I'm personally more comfortable working after I have scum flips rather than building full theory teams wholesale.
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@Vaimes: I don't think that interaction precludes you two from being scum together. It actually kinda feels like TMI. If he is scum, I think that increases your likelyhood of being scum too.
@Megs:I'm just curious if you were thinking about that right now.
On KCC, I'm gonna say that your case feels... kinda like you want her to be scum? Maybe like you started from the conclusion that she was scum and read a bit more into her push of KK than maybe is actually there. And I mean, the focus on Last makes sense if she's a Cop. She would want to know whether or not he was lying/doing a thing before CCing.
I'm still townreading her. I like the way she was poking around the game unabashedly to scumhunt. There was also some mindmelding but that's not like... actually a tell. That's jsut a we might both be town if we're thinking along the same lines.
Why does scum!KCC claim Cop? And claim a suboptimal target?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Cantrip, if KCC is a plausible buddy, who's our third? Because I came into this Day proposing a KCC/Rhand/Meg team.
Vaimes: I'm putting these here because this is twice today you've made a point about who you aren't scum with. I've always found this train of thought unusual for town to have.
Say the scumteam is Vaimes/Meg/Cantrip. That means KCC and Last are telling the truth. That means Emiko and vezok are town. Assuming we can't bully the town into lunching between the Cop claims, that leaves you and Rhand as our only viable mislunches. I don't ~think any of the three of us are scumreading you, though to be fair I don't know what Meg thinks about anything. No one really seems interested in killing Rhand, either, except me and maybe KCC.
In fact, I don't think anyone has made a serious push on you this game. How exactly does that scumteam work?
Now, I guess I misunderstood this originally? The intent of this was to demonstrate that my team of you/Cantrip/Meg was flawed because of the lack of viable mislynches.
I simultaneously think the claims are real, but also that one of them has to be fake. They both have +town things going for them. Behaviorally, I think Last is scummier, but I think his claimed role makes more sense than KCC's check/claim.
Also doesn't really help that almost everyone is dipping out just days before deadline.
Cantrip, one of the reasons I'm trying to nip this scumread of me in the bud is because you are probably my only confident townread right now. I would like to work together on this, because if I start flooding the thread with my Help Me I'm Alone On Town Island thoughts, we're all going to go insane.
I really want to clear both Emiko and vezok, since scum claiming an inno on a buddy is lol, and the players who got checked are independently towny anyways. But I don't feel like either of them can provide the back-and-forth solving I want to engage in.
If I take out Cantrip/Emiko/vezok, that leaves three scum in Rhand/Meg/KCC/KJ/Last. I think we should kill Meg or Rhand now, and we might just have to bite the cop bullet toMorrow.
The bolded is why I was asking about your townread of me. I'm pretty sure it was decently confident for most if not all this game, so the bolded about Cantrip being your only confident townread would be weird.
Actually, I think Vezok should probably be another? Even if scum, I don't think Last claims the peek on his scumbuddy. Do you disagree with that statement?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Megs:I'm just curious if you were thinking about that right now.
On KCC, I'm gonna say that your case feels... kinda like you want her to be scum? Maybe like you started from the conclusion that she was scum and read a bit more into her push of KK than maybe is actually there. And I mean, the focus on Last makes sense if she's a Cop. She would want to know whether or not he was lying/doing a thing before CCing.
I'm still townreading her. I like the way she was poking around the game unabashedly to scumhunt. There was also some mindmelding but that's not like... actually a tell. That's jsut a we might both be town if we're thinking along the same lines.
Why does scum!KCC claim Cop? And claim a suboptimal target?
I was not. Why was that your first question to me?
I have been thinking she might be scum for a while, that is true, and it's possible I might be reaching in some areas. Can you point out any specific parts of the argument that you think don't hold up?
You mentioned the Last focus, sure. You're right, if you're planning on coming into the thread to counterclaim somebody you probably do spend most of your time on that. But all of it? And no real analysis of people's reactions to it?
KCC is promising a reread, and unless the results of that really wow me I'm not buying this.
anything else you are concerned about?
Can you give me some examples of "poking around unabashedly?"
And I'm not going to try and figure out why scum runs gambits. That's part of the point of running a gambit. However, should it be a gambit, Emiko would be a good target because... of the
What do you think of Cantrip's analysis of KCC in 1306?
1, I think Cantrip is looking at individual posts and micro-things when if you pull out, look at the overall flow of her posts, and especially look at it in contrast to the towngame we just saw KCC in (note: this is what I just did), you get a very different picture.
This bit makes sense if you accept that Cantrip is town: "Same here, I don't think scum!KCC continues to push hard to lunch vanilla KK/push hard against wagoning me when a plausible case on me is presented."
if you're asking about buddies, this is somewhere I would start if KCC flips scum.
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"And I'm not going to try and figure out why scum runs gambits. That's part of the point of running a gambit. However, should it be a gambit, Emiko would be a good target because... of the"
was going to end with me talking about the fact that Emiko is kind of being backseated here? Nothing really scummy afaict. And certainly there weren't a lot of people trying to lynch her. It's a safe cop. It doesn't really remove any ML options because I don't think emi WAS a ml option.
KCC's stated reasoning at the time was: "Anyway, I'm just going to share my check now, I realized I'm not going to get much more from holding it now that me/last are the obvious discussion Today. Emi is Town. I wasn't confident I could read her if scum, and if town, I didn't think she'd be NKed, and I think scum might see her as a viable softtarget for mislynch."
I mentioned I think KCC is "too smart" to cop Emi, mostly because of the bolded. Also one other thing, but this is the important part.
If you can show me that Emi was actually on people's read lists or even paranoia lists I'd feel more comfortable about it.
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KJ I feel like you’re trying to drown everyone with questions. Like you ask a million questions, and then a million more. If I sat here and answered all of your questions, I’d just refresh the thread and find even more of them. Where are you going with these questions? I literally do not want to answer them because it feels to me like you’re on the road to confirmation bias.
Points where your arguments aren't as strong as I'd like them to be:
You compare this game to Modern. Comparing play in a game where you don't know someone's alignment to the most recent one isn't as telling as you think. It's too small a sample size (and therefore too much room for error) and players play differently between games in the smaller sense. Some things are different, but only the bigger things stay the same. But, given the small sample size, I can't tell what's the big stuff and whats the small stuff.
You point out that her progression is less clear in this game. Fine, that could be a thing, but also if she's a Cop, then maybe she doesn't need to put in as much effort to solve people D1. She has a cop shot, She can just... know a person's alignment.
You then say that she interacts with KK a lot, but asks questions that "aren't trying to solve". Can you tell me some of those questions?
Post 768, which you quoted that KCC votes KK is kinda a gotcha post... It could be a "You did something scummy that I can hang you for and not look bad" but I'm also seeing a possibility of that just being the straw that broke the camels back and it turned from "I was kinda thinking you're scum up to now, but this post is just really scummy. VOTE".
I'm always wary of people accusing others of asking questions that "can't solve" because I get that a lot and I'm almost always town when that happens.
However, 1023 and the following point might be a thing. It feels like an over-doing-it push, and if true that she uses 'reread' in lieu of actual reasons frequently might mean she doesn't actually have any.
I'll quote KCC poking around later, I need to go.
I will say that I don't hate the Emiko targeting as much as you do. She's hard to read I think due to the language barrier. We're not used to her yet so we don't know how to actually read her. It took a while for Rhand also I think.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I may have left your name in a PoE on one of my posts. I'm juggling several worlds here, and while I do think you're town, it's equally possible you're just having a really good scumgame.
Strapping on the carpal tunnel bands...
Start here:
I was going through the KCC ISO and noticed this post. Specifically that line "still not liking KK."
It struck me because KCC had not up until that point voiced any suspicion of KK. KCC had talked with KK quite a bit, but until this post there was no suspicion voiced. So why say "still?" This seems small but I think this is a crack that reveals a fake read. Like, is KCC genuinely scumreading KK the whole time up until this post but just failing to mention it at all? Her posts really don't sound like the posts you make toward somebody you think might be scum. I'll quote them all here for you; everything KCC said to KK up until this post:
Here we do see a post which expresses some skepticism of KK... but literally the next post we have her saying that KK has a "good read."
I would think the natural mindset progression here would be to say "not liking KK after this post" or something like that. There's definitely reason to be cagey about reads, so I could see a town KCC not tipping her hand during her earlier exchanges. However, she's talking to KK in a way that doesn't feel skeptical enough to support the statement that she is "still" not liking him. When did that start? I can't tell.
This one thing got me looking deeper into KCC. We can continue with the very same post. But to do that, we have to pull back a bit.
Emiko caught on to something with KCC's play this game that we haven't really explored this game much, which is that KCC's votes and KCC's pressure mostly don't match up, at least in the early game.
KCC has voted for:
Vaimes (RVS vote? Ish. It sort of morphed as she went, but it became a serious vote. See here: http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=158)
Vezok. That happened here: http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=168
At the time of the vote there was no reasoning provided. Not an issue in and of itself. But... this is the followup: So, again, not really pushing a stated read. There's no other comments on Vezok until...
KCC then drops vezok and votes ME within the next couple of posts. Look at what happened here. KCC votes for Vezok, reason unstated, has a bit of a back and forth, and then unvotes after a silver post. I'm inferring here that the reason for voting Vezok was to do with Vezok's attitude toward RVS, but the "wait wait wait" and subsequent reasoning doesn't seem great.
Note that there's no unvote here either. But again, Vezok is completely dropped at this point.
So we move to:
Meg. First mention of me all game:
And, next post is the vote:
No reasoning. I can infer why she voted me, but there's no stated reasoning.
Now at this point Emiko jumps in and questions what's going on. Only at this point do we get anything to work with:
So this supports that maybe KCC has had some reasoning all along. But see the line, "I didn't push him because I didn't need to?"
Let's go back to where we started this whole thing. "My vote IS the push."
So within the span of a few posts KCC argues in one case that her vote was not a push, but a different vote WAS the push. This feels like a sidestep response to me, one meant to ward off suspicion rather than a real explanation of logical and consistent behavior.
here are KCC's non-RVS votes from D1 of Modern Mafia up until the Az wagon. I'll provide some editorial commentary, but a lot of us were in that game and it's easy enough to read back if you want more context.
So what was happening here was that Beeboy had a fairly uninspiring opening including a "slip" that the game was role madness.
There was some amount of pressure here. KCC had commented on Beeboy (explicitly calling him a scumread: http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/812915-modern-mafia-game-over-terminus-town-victory?comment=204) and when Shadow asked for her to move onto the wagon, she did.
After that something fun happened.
KCC, rightly, calls out Beeboy's shifting story here. Click through this post and just read until you see the next post I quote here for context; it's not long. Sir Chris comes in and defends against this push by saying that this shifting story business comes from town mindset (liars stick to their story; the truth evolves because memory is imperfect). After some more back and forth, where I want to stress that there's direct questioning of Beeboy and others, KCC posts this:
There's more back and forth, and, (again really stressing this point) after questioning Az and clearly expressing suspicion of him, we get this:
From this point KCC was a major factor in what I can only call a really solid D1 scum lynch wagon.
End intermission.
So here's what I want you to take away from what I have just shown you.
In Modern mafia, KCC's votes were clear, and it was easy to follow her progression on them. She engaged with her reads both before and after her votes. Just from reading her Iso you can see how her reads evolved over time and how she was reacting to the events of the game to draw conclusions.
In THIS game, KCC's votes are not especially clear. I don't find it easy to follow her progression. She did not engage with reads (in a way that tracks with what I expect from somebody engaging with a scumread). I can't see how, just from the Iso, KCC's mindset and conclusions are evolving.
The last vote to talk about for this exercise is here:
Between the post I started this whole thing with ("Still not liking KK") and this post, KCC interacts with KK several times. I'm not going to quote them all again, but as far as I am concerned it is similar to the previous time I did do that--a lot of questions, none of which I would describe as "trying to solve" or anything that would indicate that KCC thinks KK is scum. Skeptical? Maybe. But it doesn't feel like a real set of interactions.
Then we get to this vote. What's interesting here is that NOTHING that KCC has brought up at any point prior to this one "mindset slip" ever comes into the equation. It's this and nothing but this. Seriously, look:
She says it herself.
Until EOD, all that she does. The only thing. Is to keep focus on KK:
This is just the best example. There's literally nothing else.
I'm not going to go through all of Day 2, because this is way too much already, but I do want to note two things of interest:
1. KCC has mentioned a "reread" let's call it 3.5 times, in lieu of providing solid positions.
2. Finally when we do get something, it is this:
Which I'll note still fails to provide any reasons I am scum or really many reasons on anybody.
So far on D2 there's no lookback or introspection on the KK wagon, which she started and made sure to finish. I would think that one might want to look into where one went so awry on that sort of thing. No, the Day starts with 100% focus on Last and the claim, and now we're fully embroiled in that discussion.
I have been thinking if there's any valid playstyle changeup argument here, and I suppose I'll listen to whatever argument KCC presents on that front, but I am very skeptical that one would go from the monster towngame in Mondern to... this, where we see a lot of shallow-to-nonexistent reads, a lot of staying open and soft-pressure votes, contradictory explainations for behavior (is a vote a push... or not?) and one wagon that looks opportunistic to me in hindsight that she drove straight through to a lynch.
I'm not seeing town here.
Conclusion: I don't think he's scum here? At least not as strongly as I did.
I tracked down his recent scumgames (including to MAL) and he doesn't really come off the same there as here. But I didn't get to do a full re-read of his ISO here. Short version is I'm less solid on that one than I was before earlier.
meg: "here's a massive case on somebody I think is scum"
killjoy: "but who are the scum tho?"
smh
Who is the team with her?
why do you need or want to hear a full team theory from me at this juncture?
@Megs:I'm just curious if you were thinking about that right now.
On KCC, I'm gonna say that your case feels... kinda like you want her to be scum? Maybe like you started from the conclusion that she was scum and read a bit more into her push of KK than maybe is actually there. And I mean, the focus on Last makes sense if she's a Cop. She would want to know whether or not he was lying/doing a thing before CCing.
I'm still townreading her. I like the way she was poking around the game unabashedly to scumhunt. There was also some mindmelding but that's not like... actually a tell. That's jsut a we might both be town if we're thinking along the same lines.
Why does scum!KCC claim Cop? And claim a suboptimal target?
What do you think of Cantrip's analysis of KCC in 1306?
Vaimes: I'm putting these here because this is twice today you've made a point about who you aren't scum with. I've always found this train of thought unusual for town to have.
Now, I guess I misunderstood this originally? The intent of this was to demonstrate that my team of you/Cantrip/Meg was flawed because of the lack of viable mislynches.
Is that interpretation not correct?
Also: The bolded is why I was asking about your townread of me. I'm pretty sure it was decently confident for most if not all this game, so the bolded about Cantrip being your only confident townread would be weird.
Actually, I think Vezok should probably be another? Even if scum, I don't think Last claims the peek on his scumbuddy. Do you disagree with that statement?
But the fake Merlin might.
i think that counter claim as a gambit is not a good idea .
but spreading confusion might be a good idea for scum .
it appears that you state it strong replying to vaimes .
sorry to meg .
I have been thinking she might be scum for a while, that is true, and it's possible I might be reaching in some areas. Can you point out any specific parts of the argument that you think don't hold up?
You mentioned the Last focus, sure. You're right, if you're planning on coming into the thread to counterclaim somebody you probably do spend most of your time on that. But all of it? And no real analysis of people's reactions to it?
KCC is promising a reread, and unless the results of that really wow me I'm not buying this.
anything else you are concerned about?
Can you give me some examples of "poking around unabashedly?"
And I'm not going to try and figure out why scum runs gambits. That's part of the point of running a gambit. However, should it be a gambit, Emiko would be a good target because... of the
1, I think Cantrip is looking at individual posts and micro-things when if you pull out, look at the overall flow of her posts, and especially look at it in contrast to the towngame we just saw KCC in (note: this is what I just did), you get a very different picture.
This bit makes sense if you accept that Cantrip is town: "Same here, I don't think scum!KCC continues to push hard to lunch vanilla KK/push hard against wagoning me when a plausible case on me is presented."
if you're asking about buddies, this is somewhere I would start if KCC flips scum.
"And I'm not going to try and figure out why scum runs gambits. That's part of the point of running a gambit. However, should it be a gambit, Emiko would be a good target because... of the"
was going to end with me talking about the fact that Emiko is kind of being backseated here? Nothing really scummy afaict. And certainly there weren't a lot of people trying to lynch her. It's a safe cop. It doesn't really remove any ML options because I don't think emi WAS a ml option.
KCC's stated reasoning at the time was: "Anyway, I'm just going to share my check now, I realized I'm not going to get much more from holding it now that me/last are the obvious discussion Today. Emi is Town. I wasn't confident I could read her if scum, and if town, I didn't think she'd be NKed, and I think scum might see her as a viable softtarget for mislynch."
I mentioned I think KCC is "too smart" to cop Emi, mostly because of the bolded. Also one other thing, but this is the important part.
If you can show me that Emi was actually on people's read lists or even paranoia lists I'd feel more comfortable about it.
you might be able to figure it out and i think you are town .
it appears
he pushed you away from her before you asked him .
avalon maelstrom stormy prison playstation .
i think i can engage you too ? even with the language barrier .
that post was messed up .
What about those games?
You compare this game to Modern. Comparing play in a game where you don't know someone's alignment to the most recent one isn't as telling as you think. It's too small a sample size (and therefore too much room for error) and players play differently between games in the smaller sense. Some things are different, but only the bigger things stay the same. But, given the small sample size, I can't tell what's the big stuff and whats the small stuff.
You point out that her progression is less clear in this game. Fine, that could be a thing, but also if she's a Cop, then maybe she doesn't need to put in as much effort to solve people D1. She has a cop shot, She can just... know a person's alignment.
You then say that she interacts with KK a lot, but asks questions that "aren't trying to solve". Can you tell me some of those questions?
Post 768, which you quoted that KCC votes KK is kinda a gotcha post... It could be a "You did something scummy that I can hang you for and not look bad" but I'm also seeing a possibility of that just being the straw that broke the camels back and it turned from "I was kinda thinking you're scum up to now, but this post is just really scummy. VOTE".
I'm always wary of people accusing others of asking questions that "can't solve" because I get that a lot and I'm almost always town when that happens.
However, 1023 and the following point might be a thing. It feels like an over-doing-it push, and if true that she uses 'reread' in lieu of actual reasons frequently might mean she doesn't actually have any.
I'll quote KCC poking around later, I need to go.
I will say that I don't hate the Emiko targeting as much as you do. She's hard to read I think due to the language barrier. We're not used to her yet so we don't know how to actually read her. It took a while for Rhand also I think.
Vaimes: I will answer you later as well.
Is that what you mean?
no i fixed my format error in quoting .
put together the implications to be completely certain .
so by "pushing me away from her," do you mean how he lead his responses with "who's the team?"
sorry .
to answer your question the approach is deflection and defense for KCC .