@shadow
I have no idea what you are trying to catch, I dont really care either way, im just confused because of this hard-on you have for me
ill claim last, first, in the middle or whenever
Other than just PoE which I understand, why should people think I am a wolf?
before I go, I feel like we should focus less on Osie's actions, and more on his posts, I dont feel like I can ask or say anything more on the matter that hasnt already been said or asked, and I feel like any answer that Osie gives on why he chose his targets will just lead to more circular arguments.
still not a fan of the AtE, but I cant talk since that'd be hypocritical
I might have to make a list to quantify all my issues with how Fuwa/Osie has played. And then decide if there's room for reasonable doubt or it's damn the torpedoes full speed ahead.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
if sir chris is a wolf here, what is he trying to accomplish?
Him being on a dead wagon looks good and bad, like hes definitely not trying hard to push Killjoy so its not doing much of anything, but the same can be said about him trying to save his own partner Grape
in a wolf killjoy world, he hammers his partner day 1, and then is v/la for most of day 2, only coming it to drop these large fillers posts that accomplish nothing, in terms of quality over quantity he is definitely worse than Chris
Despite that, Killjoy's posts have been a lot more natural, if there is one wolf between chris/killjoy, Killjoy is definitely the town in this picture
Cantrip has been consistently townie throughout the game, so I'm not worried about him
Axelrod pretty much-buried Grape, so ya
Tom, the world where he fake claimed his flavor is almost impossible based on the nature of this game IMO
Shadow is on both wolves, questioning this slot at this point is just fearmongering
Osie #2392
I still cant see scum!Osie making this post in frustration out of Grapes lynch if he is a partner with him
honestly if Osie didn't take those ridiculous actions last night I wouldn't even need to second guess my self here
I really think we are wrong somewhere, and the last two scum are just mocking us, playing this really bad 4D chess with our heads
I want to deep dive some of the other players that have gone other the radar recently, even those such as Vezok, who in this case would of had to CC his own partner, play that I could still easily see coming from him, and KCC who has been pretty lackluster from memory as of late
or maybe the PoE really is just Killjoy/Osie/Chris, and I'm thinking harder than I need to on this
meh
Looking at these 3 VCs, would a Tom/Osi team make any sense at all? That would be grape and Tom bussing fuwa to counterwagon Az. Then, grape and Osie bussing Tom to counterwagon grape. Is that ridiculous?
I guess scum would prefer a fuwa lynch to Az. And would also prefer losing a likely vanilla Tom to grape. But still, that'd be two days in a row where they committed to dropping a player no matter how the eod played out.
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Osie sorry if you took it personal. I think you are town and I like your insight. I'm just trying to defend you.
@shadow: You're still in the PoE cause you haven't made any major waves regarding killed scum or don't have a solid role. Like you're still heavily town in my opinion due to wagon placement and such, but you're still not confirmed.
Last night I had time to think about stupid stuff due to not having my ability on and I also forgot about megs doc claim. I thought that there is a chance scum might shoot me (a small one) just cause I'm semi-cleared. So osie's night action doesn't seem impossible. Also osie's claim has been consistent since the Fuwa slot and I think it's true while simultaneously being kinda *****ty for scum and having bad synergy with the Az's role.
So yeah, even though the action is "very bad", I do not think osie is scum.
vote KJ
I have no idea why you guys put him so low on your claim list, but he should be the first to claim.
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Osie, Do you agree with Fuwa slow-rolling the doctor portion of your claim? Why/not?
Maybe. I wasn't in her shoes, so it's possible that I would have claimed it at the time, depending on pressure and knowledge at the time of the game state (of which she had more than I had coming in). I wouldn't have bothered hiding the 2-ability element, most likely, though. I like the way I claimed.
I might have to make a list to quantify all my issues with how Fuwa/Osie has played. And then decide if there's room for reasonable doubt or it's damn the torpedoes full speed ahead.
Fuwa was even busier than I am and still is. I had a crazy busy (and stressful) day today and the next two days aren't looking much better unless I get lucky.
Cantrip has been consistently townie throughout the game, so I'm not worried about him
Can you talk a little more about this? Cantrip's scum game is pretty solid.
probably at one point, when I feel better, and yes Cantrip is probably one of the stronger players at forming content as a wolf, hes very consistent, but after a while, you can really see his questions start to lack in meaning, as well as his pushes
also if you go back to day 1, there are a few posts that have this snide attitude towards Azreal that I don't think comes from a wolf/wolf
the story might be different for you, since you are in the PoE, I mean I guess I also am in the PoE, and its not like the possibility of Cantrip being a wolf isnt there, but like with his pseudo-role claim, and his overall posts, he's definitely going to eat the night KP relatively soon if he is town, and I don't think the wolves wine him by keeping him alive
Given that Tom is highly against bussing, not likely
What are you talking about?
imo I think its highly unlikely for Tom to buss unless he absolutely has to, and KCC was humoring a Fuwa/Tom world, he asked if it was ridiculous, and I answered
imo I think its highly unlikely for Tom to buss unless he absolutely has to, and KCC was humoring a Fuwa/Tom world, he asked if it was ridiculous, and I answered
I don't know if Tom would bus me, but I'd be surprised if he wouldn't bus Fuwa.
Further thought suggests to me that there's no need for a mass claim at the very least until we have mis-lynched. And we should try to allow Vez to be on whatever lynch we decide in case we are wrong. This is because if we are not mis-lynching then we are winning, and if we do mis-lynch there are abilities that will trigger that would be better for us if the scum don't know about/have less information for.
Vez would get...something. Chris would get a track. Given that Chris is still in no way clear to me, I would prefer that he have to claim his track results without knowing everyone else's roles.
There's one more reason, and that is the possibility that scum have some way to mess with Decks, or abilities that care about what Deck a player is. Mass-Claiming unlocks those abilities. Yes, there might also be Town with similar abilities, so it's possible that could be a wash in terms of positive/negative effects, but seems like there's no need to get too risky here.
That is my current 2 cents.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
The possibility of roles that care about decks occurred to me when Az lied about what "Tron" deck he was, and why would he do that? Seems like he might have been afraid of a Town ability that cared what Deck he was, and one logical reason he might have cared about that would be if the scum had such an ability. Could have been one of his one abilities, of course.
This leads me down another rabbit-hole of, could the scum have false-claim Decks? And does this put Tom back on the table for today. There is zero evidence of a re-director in this game except if you believe Tom when he says he's Infect. And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Yeah, @Axel, I think you’re probably right that we really don’t need to. I think it has a good shot at making this game easier, but we still have some night actions that can make things work out.
Further thought suggests to me that there's no need for a mass claim at the very least until we have mis-lynched. And we should try to allow Vez to be on whatever lynch we decide in case we are wrong. This is because if we are not mis-lynching then we are winning, and if we do mis-lynch there are abilities that will trigger that would be better for us if the scum don't know about/have less information for.
Vez would get...something. Chris would get a track. Given that Chris is still in no way clear to me, I would prefer that he have to claim his track results without knowing everyone else's roles.
There's one more reason, and that is the possibility that scum have some way to mess with Decks, or abilities that care about what Deck a player is. Mass-Claiming unlocks those abilities. Yes, there might also be Town with similar abilities, so it's possible that could be a wash in terms of positive/negative effects, but seems like there's no need to get too risky here.
That is my current 2 cents.
You can stop; you're already confirmed town in my book.
The possibility of roles that care about decks occurred to me when Az lied about what "Tron" deck he was, and why would he do that? Seems like he might have been afraid of a Town ability that cared what Deck he was, and one logical reason he might have cared about that would be if the scum had such an ability. Could have been one of his one abilities, of course.
This leads me down another rabbit-hole of, could the scum have false-claim Decks? And does this put Tom back on the table for today. There is zero evidence of a re-director in this game except if you believe Tom when he says he's Infect. And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
I think this is good insight, as well, but I'm not sure that Tom's reaction to my accusation comes from scum? I guess it could if he was completely confident in me not being able to prove anything/convince others, but...I'm more inclined to think he really is Infect and there's a redirect somewhere. And if scum want to expend their efforts keeping me fruitless, that opens things up for the rest of you to use your abilities. It's all good.
I'm still looking through some interactions, but I likely will not be able to contribute very much from now until Monday, so...
V/LA until Monday
I'll try to keep up on reading, though, and contribute as I can.
And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
I think this is good insight, as well, but I'm not sure that Tom's reaction to my accusation comes from scum?
What reaction would you have expected? Admitting he false claimed? Is there any plausible town explanation he could have offered for that? -"There must have been a redirect" seems like the highest probability chance of getting out of it
I think this is good insight, as well, but I'm not sure that Tom's reaction to my accusation comes from scum?
What reaction would you have expected? Admitting he false claimed? Is there any plausible town explanation he could have offered for that? -"There must have been a redirect" seems like the highest probability chance of getting out of it
Also the likeliest explanation. Neither grape nor az even tried to fake claim the deck. It makes literally no sense for scum tom to think it would be a good idea especially when he shot town and got heat for it.
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This leads me down another rabbit-hole of, could the scum have false-claim Decks? And does this put Tom back on the table for today. There is zero evidence of a re-director in this game except if you believe Tom when he says he's Infect. And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
I think this is good insight, as well, but I'm not sure that Tom's reaction to my accusation comes from scum? I guess it could if he was completely confident in me not being able to prove anything/convince others, but...I'm more inclined to think he really is Infect and there's a redirect somewhere. And if scum want to expend their efforts keeping me fruitless, that opens things up for the rest of you to use your abilities. It's all good.[/quote]
Proph's not answering questions about redirectors...
[quote]This leads me down another rabbit-hole of, could the scum have false-claim Decks? And does this put Tom back on the table for today. There is zero evidence of a re-director in this game except if you believe Tom when he says he's Infect. And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
I think this is good insight, as well, but I'm not sure that Tom's reaction to my accusation comes from scum? I guess it could if he was completely confident in me not being able to prove anything/convince others, but...I'm more inclined to think he really is Infect and there's a redirect somewhere. And if scum want to expend their efforts keeping me fruitless, that opens things up for the rest of you to use your abilities. It's all good.
This leads me down another rabbit-hole of, could the scum have false-claim Decks? And does this put Tom back on the table for today. There is zero evidence of a re-director in this game except if you believe Tom when he says he's Infect. And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
I think this is good insight, as well, but I'm not sure that Tom's reaction to my accusation comes from scum? I guess it could if he was completely confident in me not being able to prove anything/convince others, but...I'm more inclined to think he really is Infect and there's a redirect somewhere. And if scum want to expend their efforts keeping me fruitless, that opens things up for the rest of you to use your abilities. It's all good.
Proph is not answering questions about redirectors. <- Fixed the formatting.
Neither grape nor az even tried to fake claim the deck.
Az kinda did though (claimed plain Tron vs flipped monogreen tron). As for grape, scum might have a very limited number of safe claims and didn't want to waste one on someone who was likely getting lynched.
Proph is not answering questions about redirectors.
This, if anything, implies that the answer would be alignment-indicative, which is significantly more so the case if one of the two of them (probably Tom) is lying. If redirection wouldn't be visible (which I doubt), then Proph can answer as such without inherently confirming that the redirection occurred. If redirection would be visible, then Proph saying so confirms tom as having lied.
Proph is not answering questions about redirectors.
This, if anything, implies that the answer would be alignment-indicative, which is significantly more so the case if one of the two of them (probably Tom) is lying. If redirection wouldn't be visible (which I doubt), then Proph can answer as such without inherently confirming that the redirection occurred. If redirection would be visible, then Proph saying so confirms tom as having lied.
Or Cantrip as having lied for tom, which is even more devastating to the scumteam.
My shortlist of who ought to be on the table for today. Sir Chris would be on here also except for the claim. Everyone else would require me to invent some serious conspiracy theories as to how they could be scum. Which I'm very capable of coming up with. Just don't feel the need to do so at this time.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
This seems VERY unlikely to me, yeah.
This is why I feel it's likely that it's a redirect ability.
I feel like the chance of someone unclaimed now faking their deck name is pretty much nonexistent, anyway, so to clarify, here's a paraphrase of last night's action submission and response as such (approved by Proph):
Me: Target Tom with [foo] and guess Infect.
Proph: You have guessed wrong, so no action for you!
Neither grape nor az even tried to fake claim the deck.
Az kinda did though (claimed plain Tron vs flipped monogreen tron). As for grape, scum might have a very limited number of safe claims and didn't want to waste one on someone who was likely getting lynched.
I checked with Proph on this one and he said the two are synonymous, which wasn't a very satisfactory answer, but he confirmed if I had guessed either deck name for Az I would have guessed "right". So it's not actually a fake claim.
I don't really think Tom lied about his deck, so I may have to accept the presence of a secret re-director, much as that would bother me. This doesn't clear Tom in any way though. I don't remember what Cantrip said about Tom yesterday, but if the scum had reason to believe Cantrip was going to try to shoot town-Tom, then they probably don't take the trouble to re-direct him, which they absolutely would do for scum-Tom.
Yes, they could be trying to eat their cake and have it too by stealing Cantrip's vig. and then getting a Tom-mislynch, but it seems like a lot of the abilities in this game are 1-shot. If scum have a repeatable, secret, re-direct, I will be even more upset.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I checked with Proph on this one and he said the two are synonymous, which wasn't a very satisfactory answer, but he confirmed if I had guessed either deck name for Az I would have guessed "right". So it's not actually a fake claim.
That doesn't mean Az knew that, or that he wasn't trying to false claim. I mean, he clearly, deliberately did not claim monogreen.
And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
This seems VERY unlikely to me, yeah.
This is why I feel it's likely that it's a redirect ability.
I feel like the chance of someone unclaimed now faking their deck name is pretty much nonexistent, anyway, so to clarify, here's a paraphrase of last night's action submission and response as such (approved by Proph):
Me: Target Tom with [foo] and guess Infect.
Proph: You have guessed wrong, so no action for you!
But why do you think it's more likely that you're redirected instead of tom lying to you?
This is all setup speculation, but...
From a hosting perspective, not telling you that you were redirected seems really questionable. Even if he wouldn't tell you, it seems Ockham-y that tom lied over you being redirected. Not to mention that unless it's one of Azrael's abilities getting crazy lucky, a redirector ability on scum is likely 3 manipulatives on a 4 person team. That seems very unlikely; again, it seems more likely that tom lied.
All in all, I'm down to lynch tom on the basis of the claim likely being false and having scum equity, or Killjoy on relation to Az and general ehh.
Other lynches could be reasonable, but those seem like the two most reasonable at this time.
Sir Chris probably doesn't get lynched before Killjoy.
I don't really think Tom lied about his deck, so I may have to accept the presence of a secret re-director, much as that would bother me. This doesn't clear Tom in any way though. I don't remember what Cantrip said about Tom yesterday, but if the scum had reason to believe Cantrip was going to try to shoot town-Tom, then they probably don't take the trouble to re-direct him, which they absolutely would do for scum-Tom.
Yes, they could be trying to eat their cake and have it too by stealing Cantrip's vig. and then getting a Tom-mislynch, but it seems like a lot of the abilities in this game are 1-shot. If scum have a repeatable, secret, re-direct, I will be even more upset.
Even a 1-shot secret redirector bothers me. Like, a host doesn't say "You have guessed wrong" with a redirect unless it's questionable hosting. A host wouldn't say "You have guessed wrong" if the person was doctored, or if the action was roleblocked, or the like. And as long as the veracity of his claim and the result of Cantrip's action is in question, tom's in the PoE.
Even a 1-shot secret redirector bothers me. Like, a host doesn't say "You have guessed wrong" with a redirect unless it's questionable hosting.
This isn't an issue that bothers me, if I was running a game with a redirect, I'd be unlikely to tell them that in most situations, and I definitely wouldn't answer questions about that to anyone but the redirector.
And I'd guess this is something proph agrees with me on. I don't think this speculation is of any value.
Meh this is all fair speculation, It depends on the host, I know Osie likes to let people know if you get redirected, I probably would as well, if not I'd be likely to put in the OP, "Roles may exist which may present false information to other roles."
I'd rather just evaluate Tom on his play over mechanics at this point in time
Even a 1-shot secret redirector bothers me. Like, a host doesn't say "You have guessed wrong" with a redirect unless it's questionable hosting.
This isn't an issue that bothers me, if I was running a game with a redirect, I'd be unlikely to tell them that in most situations, and I definitely wouldn't answer questions about that to anyone but the redirector.
And I'd guess this is something proph agrees with me on. I don't think this speculation is of any value.
I mean, this ventures into the territory of what qualifies as bastard modding due to a decent percentage of hosts approaching that as the host lying to the player if they don't make clear that the player was redirected. I don't think this is really where we want to go with that, but saying that this redirection scenario isn't highly suspect and saying that the more likely scenario isn't just that tom lied is hokey. We don't know if a redirect exists or not. If we go on behavior solely, tom could be either alignment. He sets himself up that way and I have yet to see anyone point to anything he's done that was stellarly different here. Given that he's also mechanically likely to have lied, there is little to no reason not to lynch that slot.
Given my experience with Proph, I would strongly not expect him to have a secret redirector without implying something about its likelihood to the players as a whole. That fundamentally goes against two distinct rules of design that he has always championed and maintained:
1. The mod will not lie to the players.
2. The game is, first-and-foremost, about behavioral analysis.
Given my experience with Proph, I would strongly not expect him to have a secret redirector without implying something about its likelihood to the players as a whole. That fundamentally goes against two distinct rules of design that he has always championed and maintained:
1. The mod will not lie to the players.
2. The game is, first-and-foremost, about behavioral analysis.
(To be fair, he's more about the latter than the former, but the former is a core rule of non-bastard modding in pretty much any community.)
I have no idea what you are trying to catch, I dont really care either way, im just confused because of this hard-on you have for me
ill claim last, first, in the middle or whenever
Other than just PoE which I understand, why should people think I am a wolf?
still not a fan of the AtE, but I cant talk since that'd be hypocritical
if sir chris is a wolf here, what is he trying to accomplish?
Him being on a dead wagon looks good and bad, like hes definitely not trying hard to push Killjoy so its not doing much of anything, but the same can be said about him trying to save his own partner Grape
in a wolf killjoy world, he hammers his partner day 1, and then is v/la for most of day 2, only coming it to drop these large fillers posts that accomplish nothing, in terms of quality over quantity he is definitely worse than Chris
Despite that, Killjoy's posts have been a lot more natural, if there is one wolf between chris/killjoy, Killjoy is definitely the town in this picture
Cantrip has been consistently townie throughout the game, so I'm not worried about him
Axelrod pretty much-buried Grape, so ya
Tom, the world where he fake claimed his flavor is almost impossible based on the nature of this game IMO
Shadow is on both wolves, questioning this slot at this point is just fearmongering
Osie
#2392
I still cant see scum!Osie making this post in frustration out of Grapes lynch if he is a partner with him
honestly if Osie didn't take those ridiculous actions last night I wouldn't even need to second guess my self here
I really think we are wrong somewhere, and the last two scum are just mocking us, playing this really bad 4D chess with our heads
I want to deep dive some of the other players that have gone other the radar recently, even those such as Vezok, who in this case would of had to CC his own partner, play that I could still easily see coming from him, and KCC who has been pretty lackluster from memory as of late
or maybe the PoE really is just Killjoy/Osie/Chris, and I'm thinking harder than I need to on this
meh
Hmm
I'm against a massclaim at this point, I don't think it's necessary yet, but if we choose to go down that road today, I think I want to go first
Looking at these 3 VCs, would a Tom/Osi team make any sense at all? That would be grape and Tom bussing fuwa to counterwagon Az. Then, grape and Osie bussing Tom to counterwagon grape. Is that ridiculous?
I guess scum would prefer a fuwa lynch to Az. And would also prefer losing a likely vanilla Tom to grape. But still, that'd be two days in a row where they committed to dropping a player no matter how the eod played out.
I guess a redirect or something isn't ridiculous.
Was I right about Chris/Osi? -Ugh idk
Maybe I'll reread you and kj again
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@shadow: You're still in the PoE cause you haven't made any major waves regarding killed scum or don't have a solid role. Like you're still heavily town in my opinion due to wagon placement and such, but you're still not confirmed.
Last night I had time to think about stupid stuff due to not having my ability on and I also forgot about megs doc claim. I thought that there is a chance scum might shoot me (a small one) just cause I'm semi-cleared. So osie's night action doesn't seem impossible. Also osie's claim has been consistent since the Fuwa slot and I think it's true while simultaneously being kinda *****ty for scum and having bad synergy with the Az's role.
So yeah, even though the action is "very bad", I do not think osie is scum.
vote KJ
I have no idea why you guys put him so low on your claim list, but he should be the first to claim.
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Maybe. I wasn't in her shoes, so it's possible that I would have claimed it at the time, depending on pressure and knowledge at the time of the game state (of which she had more than I had coming in). I wouldn't have bothered hiding the 2-ability element, most likely, though. I like the way I claimed.
I was trying to just make the joke and then ended up answering instead. Oh well.
Neither am I.
Fuwa was even busier than I am and still is. I had a crazy busy (and stressful) day today and the next two days aren't looking much better unless I get lucky.
Can you talk a little more about this? Cantrip's scum game is pretty solid.
What are you talking about?
also if you go back to day 1, there are a few posts that have this snide attitude towards Azreal that I don't think comes from a wolf/wolf
the story might be different for you, since you are in the PoE, I mean I guess I also am in the PoE, and its not like the possibility of Cantrip being a wolf isnt there, but like with his pseudo-role claim, and his overall posts, he's definitely going to eat the night KP relatively soon if he is town, and I don't think the wolves wine him by keeping him alive
imo I think its highly unlikely for Tom to buss unless he absolutely has to, and KCC was humoring a Fuwa/Tom world, he asked if it was ridiculous, and I answered
I don't know if Tom would bus me, but I'd be surprised if he wouldn't bus Fuwa.
Well
I have no power here im fullclaimed and ive got a festival this week...
Maybe vezok/axel/shadow dont claim or something i think more or less everyone would be fine with that
shadow/cantrip
vaimes/kcc/last
osi/chris
kj
Vez would get...something. Chris would get a track. Given that Chris is still in no way clear to me, I would prefer that he have to claim his track results without knowing everyone else's roles.
There's one more reason, and that is the possibility that scum have some way to mess with Decks, or abilities that care about what Deck a player is. Mass-Claiming unlocks those abilities. Yes, there might also be Town with similar abilities, so it's possible that could be a wash in terms of positive/negative effects, but seems like there's no need to get too risky here.
That is my current 2 cents.
This leads me down another rabbit-hole of, could the scum have false-claim Decks? And does this put Tom back on the table for today. There is zero evidence of a re-director in this game except if you believe Tom when he says he's Infect. And I'm still wary of Proph allowing someone to get re-directed and NOT being told they were re-directed - although in Cantrip's specific case, I can sort of understand how it could have happened.
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(I agree with this post in its entirety.)
I think this is good insight, as well, but I'm not sure that Tom's reaction to my accusation comes from scum? I guess it could if he was completely confident in me not being able to prove anything/convince others, but...I'm more inclined to think he really is Infect and there's a redirect somewhere. And if scum want to expend their efforts keeping me fruitless, that opens things up for the rest of you to use your abilities. It's all good.
I'm still looking through some interactions, but I likely will not be able to contribute very much from now until Monday, so...
V/LA until Monday
I'll try to keep up on reading, though, and contribute as I can.
This seems VERY unlikely to me, yeah.
What reaction would you have expected? Admitting he false claimed? Is there any plausible town explanation he could have offered for that? -"There must have been a redirect" seems like the highest probability chance of getting out of it
Also the likeliest explanation. Neither grape nor az even tried to fake claim the deck. It makes literally no sense for scum tom to think it would be a good idea especially when he shot town and got heat for it.
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Proph's not answering questions about redirectors...
Proph is not answering questions about redirectors. <- Fixed the formatting.
Az kinda did though (claimed plain Tron vs flipped monogreen tron). As for grape, scum might have a very limited number of safe claims and didn't want to waste one on someone who was likely getting lynched.
This, if anything, implies that the answer would be alignment-indicative, which is significantly more so the case if one of the two of them (probably Tom) is lying. If redirection wouldn't be visible (which I doubt), then Proph can answer as such without inherently confirming that the redirection occurred. If redirection would be visible, then Proph saying so confirms tom as having lied.
Or Cantrip as having lied for tom, which is even more devastating to the scumteam.
1. Vaimes2. Axelrod3. tomsloger
4. Sir Chris5. Osieorb18
6. Cantripmancer7. shadowlancerx8. vezokpiraka9. KittyCupCake10. Lastwhisper11. killjoy
My shortlist of who ought to be on the table for today. Sir Chris would be on here also except for the claim. Everyone else would require me to invent some serious conspiracy theories as to how they could be scum. Which I'm very capable of coming up with. Just don't feel the need to do so at this time.
I feel like the chance of someone unclaimed now faking their deck name is pretty much nonexistent, anyway, so to clarify, here's a paraphrase of last night's action submission and response as such (approved by Proph):
Me: Target Tom with [foo] and guess Infect.
Proph: You have guessed wrong, so no action for you!
I checked with Proph on this one and he said the two are synonymous, which wasn't a very satisfactory answer, but he confirmed if I had guessed either deck name for Az I would have guessed "right". So it's not actually a fake claim.
Yes, they could be trying to eat their cake and have it too by stealing Cantrip's vig. and then getting a Tom-mislynch, but it seems like a lot of the abilities in this game are 1-shot. If scum have a repeatable, secret, re-direct, I will be even more upset.
Killjoy (3): tomsloger, Sir Chris, vezokpiraka
osieorb18 (2): Axelrod, Vaimes
tomsloger (1): KittyCupCake
Lastwhisper (1): shadowlancerx
Abstain (5): osieorb18, Cantripmancer, Lastwhisper, Killjoy, osieorb18
With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
Day 3 will end at 11:59PM EST, Wednesday, September 18th. Here is the deadline.
That doesn't mean Az knew that, or that he wasn't trying to false claim. I mean, he clearly, deliberately did not claim monogreen.
But why do you think it's more likely that you're redirected instead of tom lying to you?
This is all setup speculation, but...
From a hosting perspective, not telling you that you were redirected seems really questionable. Even if he wouldn't tell you, it seems Ockham-y that tom lied over you being redirected. Not to mention that unless it's one of Azrael's abilities getting crazy lucky, a redirector ability on scum is likely 3 manipulatives on a 4 person team. That seems very unlikely; again, it seems more likely that tom lied.
All in all, I'm down to lynch tom on the basis of the claim likely being false and having scum equity, or Killjoy on relation to Az and general ehh.
Other lynches could be reasonable, but those seem like the two most reasonable at this time.
Sir Chris probably doesn't get lynched before Killjoy.
Even a 1-shot secret redirector bothers me. Like, a host doesn't say "You have guessed wrong" with a redirect unless it's questionable hosting. A host wouldn't say "You have guessed wrong" if the person was doctored, or if the action was roleblocked, or the like. And as long as the veracity of his claim and the result of Cantrip's action is in question, tom's in the PoE.
I'll move to Killjoy if necessary, but I like this idea more right now.
This isn't an issue that bothers me, if I was running a game with a redirect, I'd be unlikely to tell them that in most situations, and I definitely wouldn't answer questions about that to anyone but the redirector.
And I'd guess this is something proph agrees with me on. I don't think this speculation is of any value.
I'd rather just evaluate Tom on his play over mechanics at this point in time
I mean, this ventures into the territory of what qualifies as bastard modding due to a decent percentage of hosts approaching that as the host lying to the player if they don't make clear that the player was redirected. I don't think this is really where we want to go with that, but saying that this redirection scenario isn't highly suspect and saying that the more likely scenario isn't just that tom lied is hokey. We don't know if a redirect exists or not. If we go on behavior solely, tom could be either alignment. He sets himself up that way and I have yet to see anyone point to anything he's done that was stellarly different here. Given that he's also mechanically likely to have lied, there is little to no reason not to lynch that slot.
1. The mod will not lie to the players.
2. The game is, first-and-foremost, about behavioral analysis.
(To be fair, he's more about the latter than the former, but the former is a core rule of non-bastard modding in pretty much any community.)