It's so... weird to have reasonably viable wagons on tom, shadow, AND Chris D1. I feel like it's much too... confident? on the part of the rest of us to be pushing those three specific players. They plus Az are arguably the most scum-savvy players out of all of us. A bunch of ignorant townies wagoning all of them independently D1 makes me think they aren't all scum. However, I don't think that they are all town: I don't think all three of them get wagoned D1 without some bussing.
I wanna see this go between shadow and tom due to their inclusion on my wagon. And between them, I'm slightly more suspicious of Shadow. There was a specific bit of wine I didn't like that he had in a post @Cantrip I think?
No wait, I found it, it was @Chris. Even though he admits it's wine, I'm not a fan of it's inclusion.
The problem for you is even if I post a sentence I give a lot of thought to all of my reads so when you ask me to explain I give you two paragraphs of nuanced thought and then you go "oh this isn't going to end well for me" because, well, it's not.
I...what? Also, I have zero fear from you this game.
Also, in scum!me/town!you world, do you really think I’d actually push on you again and expect you to magically still think I wouldn’t do so as scum?
Yeah, it’s wine, you don’t actually have to answer that, I don’t think it helps either of us here, especially if you’re town.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I am starting to actually town read Chris here.
Initially i didn't like the WK of me because I got kind of scared it was an attempt to buddy me which scum will do when a player gets shoved into a corner, either they don't think the player will be lynched or they want to stay off the wagon. But at this point am convinced that Chris does believe that I am town here. And I do like how he is leveraging his other interactions and reads using his read on me rather then just hard defending me.
Mm. I don't know that I understand that Chris post from either alignment. I understand what you're laying down there, but having seen Chris play both alignments, it doesn't seem to fit cleanly into either. If it's bad play under both alignments, and comes from a good player, that doesn't necessarily mean the scum explanation is all that more likely.
But the way you launched that attack? Reads to me like you saw a golden ticket to attack poor logic, and overplayed your hand. So, so often, scum fall into that pattern and try to drag the town along with them. I don't know that you had decided whether you truly wanted to "win" that wagon by successfully spearheading a lynch on a prominent player this early, because blowback is a thing, but regardless of whether this was or was not a calculated scum attack, that was a scum attack.
You should have bussed Chris, Az. This is ugly, and I'm not buying this for a second.
@AZ: I expect you'll ignore this question as well, but can you explain why your vote is on shadow, instead of me? -I was the first to vote Chris, for these exact same reasons you are holding against shadow.
This day will be fun to dissect later when we have some flips. Everyone here who has some sort of vote analysis experience should make sure that today isn’t overlooked. (Definitely will remind y’all later as well, but if I get NK’d then don’t forget)
@KJ: I am reasonably confident that Tom is town, so pick someone other than him or I.
This day will be fun to dissect later when we have some flips. Everyone here who has some sort of vote analysis experience should make sure that today isn’t overlooked. (Definitely will remind y’all later as well, but if I get NK’d then don’t forget)
@KJ: I am reasonably confident that Tom is town, so pick someone other than him or I.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
sure, I'll vote Azrael, I still would like to know why he voted me vote: Azreal
and to be fair, Shadow is right, we aren't lynching top-posting Shadow if he is a wolf anyways
dont necessarily think he will flip a wolf, but like he has a lot of spew on him if he does flip wolf
For example, that town read of grape means they are highly unlikely to be aligned, and also Cupcake's #556 makes them also unlikely aligned since I don't think a wolf insults their partner like that
I
If I can't defend myself because of "what if you are scum tho" none of us should be playing. History shows if I am scum town is like just going to lose anyway so!
I'm not sure if this was directed at my comment, but if it was, then you have appeared to miss the point in rather spectacular fashion. It is in no way an argument that you are Town to point out that (historically) you are great at reading Townies. It is actually meaningless.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I
If I can't defend myself because of "what if you are scum tho" none of us should be playing. History shows if I am scum town is like just going to lose anyway so!
I'm not sure if this was directed at my comment, but if it was, then you have appeared to miss the point in rather spectacular fashion. It is in no way an argument that you are Town to point out that (historically) you are great at reading Townies. It is actually meaningless.
Not true at all! If I was someone who was bad at reading town it would be incredibly scummy for me to suddenly have snap reads like this. By showing I have a history of success it shows I have good faith belief in my abilities. You will find I don't miss many points.
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And Shadow is a sneaky fellow who can never be trusted.
This is kind of a silly reason, and not really based on this game
Quote from Axelrod »
Also because it seems like the entire case I am reading against Sir Chris is that he got an early "too strong" read on Beeboy as Town. That is incredibly underwhelming. I don't exactly have a strong "Town" read on Chris or Beeboy for that matter, but I have no issue if he supposedly got one from what Beeboy posted. As someone else (Rhand?) said, it's better than the Town read Az. supposedly got on Grapefruit from what Grapefruit posted.
I know that this sounds like semantics, but it does make a difference, it’s not about the strength of the read, but the feasibility of the read. I think the reasons Chris purported for the read are weak and baseless.
Well, disagree. Looks all about the strength to me. You say it's weak, he says it's not. I'd say, it's not something I'd feel that strong about, but he didn't sound insincere about it.
You bring up Az, what’s your read on him?
Do not have one. Historically, I tend to be overly suspicious of him, perhaps because of a tendency he has to make overly confidant statements about stuff he has no business being so confident about (perhaps we are seeing a theme here). I'm trying to not let that kind of thing sway me too much at this stage of the proceedings.
@KJ: I am reasonably confident that Tom is town, so pick someone other than him or I.
All right. Why? You may have already said somewhere else but just re-summarize this for me, because I certainly don't see it.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@Axel
as it is stated, I don't think Tom has done anything out of the ordinary, or wolfy, and the only thing that might ping me is if his train built up, and votes started to move away in a way that felt malicious
I always tell myself I don't think I'd catch wolf!tom based off his own posts but rather POE and train movement, which I guess is contradictory to the above statement, but ohh well, wouldn't really want to see him go day 1 anyways
Because I’m town.
Because I’m not going to be the lynch.
Because trying to lynch the top poster on day one is a bad idea regardless.
Shall I go on?
Ok so I immediately dislike this post. Like. If you're town, then being wagoned isn't necessarily bad. See me earlier today. I'm using it to help me solve the game. You're trying to shoo me away is not a townie reaction.
The false bravado is probably NAI. Maybe you actually believe you won't be the lynch today, or maybe you're just saying that to try and deter further wagoning, idk.
That last bit is.. what is it, AtE? Fearmongering? You're for sure telling us not to lynch you for reasons that have nothing to do with your alingment there, possibly hinting that the game will stagnate without you? Yeah that's fearmongering.
So, no. I'm not gonna go elsewhere. You take my vote and you like it.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I can't find the question I was gonna answer.
I recall it being who my scum reads are a la Syrenze's post.
Shadow is currently my top scumread. I disagree with his beeboy read, and he made a couple posts I highlighted as really scummy,
My second is... Last. I haven't said anything about this read yet, but Last doesn't feel like town last. He's not... quite as vocal as he usually is, nor as... idk town. I ALWAYS end up catching town Last. And I haven't yet.
As for a third... I don't really have a hard read on this spot. I will say I would like to see more from Vaimes, and I still want to read up on Fuwa's games.
Honorable mention to Az solely for the reason I feel like he's not looking for/finding enough town. My interpretation of his play is that's kinda how he plays. And I'm not seeing that.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Axel: I called it weak as in weak sauce or unconvincing, not weak in read strength.
As far as Tom goes, he’s said a few things that I think line up with town Tom. Unless he’s exactly partners with Cantrip (which I doubt) then his Cantrip read is a bit too prohibitive for scum!tom. Also, I think he’d be making more useless posts if he’s scum.
Ok so I immediately dislike this post. Like. If you're town, then being wagoned isn't necessarily bad. See me earlier today. I'm using it to help me solve the game. You're trying to shoo me away is not a townie reaction.
I don’t disagree that self wagon analysis can be useful, but I can do that much later, and the wagon exists to analyze, it doesn’t need to keep existing. And frankly (and sorry if you’re town) you’re wagon analysis was pretty lackluster, regardless of your alignment.
And yes, me shooing you away is a townie reaction because I’m town and that’s my reaction.
Quote from KJ »
The false bravado is probably NAI. Maybe you actually believe you won't be the lynch today, or maybe you're just saying that to try and deter further wagoning, idk.
The bravado ain’t false, I was mislynched in secret agent and I will not let that happen here. I have a relatively good idea as to why it happened there, and I’m not about to make the same mistake.
Quote from KJ »
That last bit is.. what is it, AtE? Fearmongering? You're for sure telling us not to lynch you for reasons that have nothing to do with your alingment there, possibly hinting that the game will stagnate without you? Yeah that's fearmongering.
It’s not though, it’s good Mafia theory. Lynching the top poster day one is bad, and anyone who has played long enough will tell you that’s true, even if they really want not to. I was actually talking to...Voxx I think, and over the course of MU’s long form games, average mislynch percentage for day 1 is about 50%, and average mislynch percentage for the top poster on a day 1 is about 4%. Plus, if you really think the top poster is scum, giving them even more time to say a bunch of crap that can hang their buddies or clear townies is good play.
(*My numbers may be off, but not by that much, I’m going from memory though)
It's so... weird to have reasonably viable wagons on tom, shadow, AND Chris D1. I feel like it's much too... confident? on the part of the rest of us to be pushing those three specific players. They plus Az are arguably the most scum-savvy players out of all of us. A bunch of ignorant townies wagoning all of them independently D1 makes me think they aren't all scum. However, I don't think that they are all town: I don't think all three of them get wagoned D1 without some bussing.
I wanna see this go between shadow and tom due to their inclusion on my wagon. And between them, I'm slightly more suspicious of Shadow. There was a specific bit of wine I didn't like that he had in a post @Cantrip I think?
No wait, I found it, it was @Chris. Even though he admits it's wine, I'm not a fan of it's inclusion.
The problem for you is even if I post a sentence I give a lot of thought to all of my reads so when you ask me to explain I give you two paragraphs of nuanced thought and then you go "oh this isn't going to end well for me" because, well, it's not.
I...what? Also, I have zero fear from you this game.
Also, in scum!me/town!you world, do you really think I’d actually push on you again and expect you to magically still think I wouldn’t do so as scum?
Yeah, it’s wine, you don’t actually have to answer that, I don’t think it helps either of us here, especially if you’re town.
Vote Shadow
So let me get this straight. You think that because the three wagons are on people who are good at being scum, they can't be all on scum. Never mind the fact that even if these wagons on people who haven't posted once and were just zombies that didn't speak the chance of being all three on scum was zero. So yeah, you just made a big post where you said absolutely nothing.
Town KJ makes insightful posts that even though I might not agree with them, actually make some sense. This is just posting for the sake of posting and is very indicative of scum kj.
I'm still liking my vote on chris, but goddamn if I don't want to lynch this slot too.
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Because I’m town.
Because I’m not going to be the lynch.
Because trying to lynch the top poster on day one is a bad idea regardless.
Shall I go on?
Ok so I immediately dislike this post. Like. If you're town, then being wagoned isn't necessarily bad. See me earlier today. I'm using it to help me solve the game. You're trying to shoo me away is not a townie reaction.
The false bravado is probably NAI. Maybe you actually believe you won't be the lynch today, or maybe you're just saying that to try and deter further wagoning, idk.
That last bit is.. what is it, AtE? Fearmongering? You're for sure telling us not to lynch you for reasons that have nothing to do with your alingment there, possibly hinting that the game will stagnate without you? Yeah that's fearmongering.
So, no. I'm not gonna go elsewhere. You take my vote and you like it.
vote killjoy
You asked shadow for reasons why you shouldn't vote for him. He then responded with reasons why you shouldn't vote for him and you accuse him of fearmongering?
The only thing that's giving me pause is the fact that KJ is so bold to champion a lynch on shadow. Does he really think as scum that he can get a lynch on him? Maybe he is trying to put his vote somewhere no on his buddies.
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After looking back over everything, Beeboy's explanation is completely consistent with how things happened. And it's too fluid for a lie.
Unvote vote Chris
For reaching that conclusion in a way that makes no sense without inside info.
I'm glad someone else caught this.
vote sir chris
It felt like I was reading beeboy's lawyer response.
IDK what the **** I was on when I made this post, but there is nothing in the thread that makes me think this after re-reading the exchange. Hell, I might've confused a Cantrip post with a Sir Chris post. The beeboy defense seems self contained.
@KCC: Can you explain your reasoning for this post? I'm trying to remember why I thought this and seeing as you had the same idea as me, an explanation from you would help.
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Historically, I tend to be overly suspicious of him, perhaps because of a tendency he has to make overly confidant statements about stuff he has no business being so confident about (perhaps we are seeing a theme here). I'm trying to not let that kind of thing sway me too much at this stage of the proceedings.
I use to have this exact problem with Az, but it is possible to read around that. And that isn't what I'm seeing here. Az isn't being overly confident, he's being irrational. That's not townAz
@KCC: Can you explain your reasoning for this post? I'm trying to remember why I thought this and seeing as you had the same idea as me, an explanation from you would help.
I would be a little surprised if Beeboy was scum, mostly because there is a guilelessness in some of these posts where I go "would he really?" as scum.
This vague initial read is fine, and I wouldn't have batted an eye at it, though I'm glad shadow pushed him for more
For some reason prerand i got the idea this was a role madness game and never changed that opinion since.
"Hey guys I am power."
Where to start here...
Okay, first, I'm not happy he posted this at all. -I didn't get this impression from bee's post the first time I read it, but then again, I'm not actively looking for powerroles to kill. But let's say, hypothetically, a townChris was observant enough to catch this without being focused on powerrole hunting.... why announce this in the thread? If the scum missed his accidental claim the first time, they've definitely seen it now!
Second, I still haven't seen an explanation for why Chris jumped to sloppy-town-slip over sloppy-scum-slip? -That certainly wasn't my first reaction. I know when I draw a powerrole as town, I don't immediately assume rolemadness, but I have had that thought when being in an absurdly powerful scum team. Yes, bee has explained his thought process in detail now, and I do believe him, but that info wasn't in the thread yet at the time Chris made this declaration! Even worse, I've asked Chris to explain this 3 times now. The first was ignored, the second time he chose to try playing semantics rather than actually answering, and the third time he ignored it again...
A combination of the sample PM not being vanilla and my general perception of recent themed games I've seen made me think the game was role madness.
Beeboy?
Strong lean town tbh.
Liars stick to their story, people remembering give variations.
I've got your back.
This is the post that really set off my alarms.
This was a valid concern that needed explaining from bee. Chris making up an answer for him is not helpful town play. Worse, this explanation doesn't even make sense. But Chris never saw this as a potential inconsistency because Chris already knows bee is town here, and just wanted bee and everyone to know who was defending a townie.
(Bee did later respond and explain this issue... in a way that was consistent and made sense... not Chris's "oops I misremembered" reasoning)
Because I’m town.
Because I’m not going to be the lynch.
Because trying to lynch the top poster on day one is a bad idea regardless.
Shall I go on?
Ok so I immediately dislike this post. Like. If you're town, then being wagoned isn't necessarily bad. See me earlier today. I'm using it to help me solve the game. You're trying to shoo me away is not a townie reaction.
The false bravado is probably NAI. Maybe you actually believe you won't be the lynch today, or maybe you're just saying that to try and deter further wagoning, idk.
That last bit is.. what is it, AtE? Fearmongering? You're for sure telling us not to lynch you for reasons that have nothing to do with your alingment there, possibly hinting that the game will stagnate without you? Yeah that's fearmongering.
So, no. I'm not gonna go elsewhere. You take my vote and you like it.
vote killjoy
You asked shadow for reasons why you shouldn't vote for him. He then responded with reasons why you shouldn't vote for him and you accuse him of fearmongering?
Well, actually, Shadow was completely dismissive in his response to Killjoy here. If you ask someone "Why shouldn't we lynch you?" (which is a bad question in general, basically about as good as "are you scum?") and the person responds "because I'm Town," that player has not, in fact, given you a reason not to lynch them. It's a non-response. A snark, if you will. (the rolleyes is a tiny hint....) Sometimes snarking is justified in the face of bad questions.
Shadow gave three non-responses. Well, the last one "lynching the Top poster is a bad idea" is not completely a non-response, but it is completely non-alignment indicative. I can see Shadow giving snarky responses to Killjoy just due to the fact that it was a bad question, but if you snark at someone then you shouldn't be too surprised when they come back and vote you for it.
In other news, I now have a pretty strong Town read on KCC. Carry on.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Fuwa, what are you trying to "help" him with, in this post?
Help him read me of course.
The person you were supposedly hard scumreading? You thought he genuinely needed help in figuring you out?
I don't see what's wrong with that. I don't get why you have to emphasize that I wanted to help him read me. It doesn't matter if he needed the help or not.
You misunderstood my defense there. I was pretty vague in hhow memory functions so...!
When you are lying and know you are lying, you will repeat yourself over and over. It is why 100% 'same thing' is a bit odd when questioning someone. Someone giving slightly different answers that make sense isn't 'oops I misremembered' but rather just how memory works.
I can understand thinking it is strange, especially since we've never played together, but I really do have a history of accusations of knowing too much because I make aggressive town reads of people. Just how I am.
Also Killjoy is right (because I am town if nothing else) about not all of these wagons being scum. On day 1 when town has to deal with bumbling and misunderstandings having all good scum as wagons independently pretty much never happens. Someone should also teach Shadow that no one gives a **** how many posts you have if you use them to smear someone with lies.
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Beeboy "misremembering" or giving different reasoning for the role madness thing isn't weird, given that he explained afterwards, but Sir Chris not being set off by it is.
If Beeboy is town, Sir Chris defense of him is TMI.
Oh rip, someone said this already. Brownie to KCC and vezok then.
@Vaimes why do you want a wagon on tom?
I think Cantrip is nitpicking and asking for unnecessary details about the role madness thing from Beeboy. I'd think this is scummy, but he claimed before that poking like this is something he'd do even as town so hmm.
I like his later interactions with others. It's more engaging than commentary. (Which is what I'm doing but oh well)
I was thinking Shadow is reasonable until #506. It doesn't sound like he's actually scumreading Chris. But I don't think I want to lynch here.
@Lastwhisper why do you keep pinging me but asking me nothing? :<
Also, why do you like the wagon on Shadow?
I don't see what's wrong with that. I don't get why you have to emphasize that I wanted to help him read me. It doesn't matter if he needed the help or not.
It matters because you didn't approach this like he was subtly mudslinging you; you approached it as though you thought he was actually trying to get a read and could be persuaded.
Okay, first, I'm not happy he posted this at all. -I didn't get this impression from bee's post the first time I read it, but then again, I'm not actively looking for powerroles to kill. But let's say, hypothetically, a townChris was observant enough to catch this without being focused on powerrole hunting.... why announce this in the thread? If the scum missed his accidental claim the first time, they've definitely seen it now!
Second, I still haven't seen an explanation for why Chris jumped to sloppy-town-slip over sloppy-scum-slip? -That certainly wasn't my first reaction. I know when I draw a powerrole as town, I don't immediately assume rolemadness, but I have had that thought when being in an absurdly powerful scum team. Yes, bee has explained his thought process in detail now, and I do believe him, but that info wasn't in the thread yet at the time Chris made this declaration! Even worse, I've asked Chris to explain this 3 times now. The first was ignored, the second time he chose to try playing semantics rather than actually answering, and the third time he ignored it again...
Sorry, I just woke up and I like to read threads backwards, I didn't even see this big part.
First off, you are saying Scum Chris decided to announce to the thread that he had seen someone claim power instead of just... quietly noting it and murdering said power at night. Secondly, you are saying that Scum Chris chose to defend town power who had pressure on them instead of letting towns do what towns do best and eat them alive and hopefully save me as scum the trouble of having to use my night kill on a marginal town player who just happened to roll power by town doing my dirty work for me. If someone says in thread that they think it is role madness, unless they are making a play, they have just claimed power of some variety. I mean... duh. Vanillas can't exactly think on role madness very hard. If the scum team is so inept that they didn't figure that out I am not going to be too stressed this game as they suck.
I can see an exceptionally powerful scum team thinking about role madness and discussing it. I also know that scum then wouldn't randomly drop that in the middle of day one. At least not good scum. I always assume if someone makes a 'oops' play, they are town. Why? Because I am right at least 90% of the time. I have been wrong, it's not an exact science, but I know for certain towns mislynch over bad reasoning a lot more than I forgive scum for a mistake. So I play those odds every time, and also see how the person reacts to my defense. I don't just make a read and never change it if need be. It's the first step. Beeboy seems good though.
We have more town than we do scum, so by default it is more likely it is a sloppy town slip. Simple math, really. Also you learn a lot when you push against things. When you think on it. Last game I wasn't at my best for example, but by grinding away at obvious lynches I came away with 'someone was for sure bussing Lng day 1' and I was right, it was Shadow. Who I suspected quite a bit. To his credit he got me off of him day 2 with good play, and then he was shot night 2. But my methods of resisting and then analyzing the resistance led me down a good path even if I was outplayed for a day.
For example. Shadow has gone from "I don't agree with this" to "This is GARBAGE" to "Look man can't we just agree and scum hunt together?" You, KCC, are not happy with how I defended beeboy. You are like "wtf" and are punching me in the face. I like that, it reaffirms my town lean on you I had earlier because you come off earnest despite momentum going away from my lynch. You don't care about momentum, you think I am scum. You are sincere. Shadow, like me, sensed that my lynch was losing steam quickly as he gained votes and cowardly sought to bring me on board to his survival while cloaking himself in his post count as a means to live. For someone who called my read "garbage" and "weak" he was quick to forgive my transgressions.
Not such a good look, as compared to you.
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Beeboy "misremembering" or giving different reasoning for the role madness thing isn't weird, given that he explained afterwards, but Sir Chris not being set off by it is.
If Beeboy is town, Sir Chris defense of him is TMI.
Oh rip, someone said this already. Brownie to KCC and vezok then.
@Vaimes why do you want a wagon on tom?
I think Cantrip is nitpicking and asking for unnecessary details about the role madness thing from Beeboy. I'd think this is scummy, but he claimed before that poking like this is something he'd do even as town so hmm.
I like his later interactions with others. It's more engaging than commentary. (Which is what I'm doing but oh well)
I was thinking Shadow is reasonable until #506. It doesn't sound like he's actually scumreading Chris. But I don't think I want to lynch here.
@Lastwhisper why do you keep pinging me but asking me nothing? :<
Also, why do you like the wagon on Shadow?
Vote Sir Chris
Why do you not want to lynch the person who isn't scum reading me but is pretending to, precisely?
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
And by that I meant #595 and not #596 as he snuck one in the middle there.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I wanna see this go between shadow and tom due to their inclusion on my wagon. And between them, I'm slightly more suspicious of Shadow. There was a specific bit of wine I didn't like that he had in a post @Cantrip I think?
No wait, I found it, it was @Chris. Even though he admits it's wine, I'm not a fan of it's inclusion. Vote Shadow
I am fine moving back here.
Initially i didn't like the WK of me because I got kind of scared it was an attempt to buddy me which scum will do when a player gets shoved into a corner, either they don't think the player will be lynched or they want to stay off the wagon. But at this point am convinced that Chris does believe that I am town here. And I do like how he is leveraging his other interactions and reads using his read on me rather then just hard defending me.
I choose "don't".
You should have bussed Chris, Az. This is ugly, and I'm not buying this for a second.
Vote Count 1.18
shadowlancerx (5): Sir Chris, Azrael, Lastwhisper, killjoy, beeboy
tomsloger (3): Rhand, Axelrod, Vaimes
Sir Chris (3): KittyCupCake, vezokpiraka, shadowlancerx
beeboy (2): dkingsland967, tomsloger
Grapefruit21 (1): Fuwa
Fuwa (1): Grapefruit21
Azrael (1): Cantripmancer
Abstain (0)
With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch.
Day 1 will end on Friday, August 16th, at 11:59 PM.
Fuwa V/LA until deadline
@KJ: I am reasonably confident that Tom is town, so pick someone other than him or I.
@Chris: What’s your read on Az?
Vote Azrael
Not really, no.
Unvote vote azrael
Because I’m town.
Because I’m not going to be the lynch.
Because trying to lynch the top poster on day one is a bad idea regardless.
Shall I go on?
vote: Azreal
and to be fair, Shadow is right, we aren't lynching top-posting Shadow if he is a wolf anyways
@beeboy
yes
Pikachuopenmouth.gif
(This of course means Last is scum and the other aren’t /joke)
For example, that town read of grape means they are highly unlikely to be aligned, and also Cupcake's #556 makes them also unlikely aligned since I don't think a wolf insults their partner like that
Not true at all! If I was someone who was bad at reading town it would be incredibly scummy for me to suddenly have snap reads like this. By showing I have a history of success it shows I have good faith belief in my abilities. You will find I don't miss many points.
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Do not have one. Historically, I tend to be overly suspicious of him, perhaps because of a tendency he has to make overly confidant statements about stuff he has no business being so confident about (perhaps we are seeing a theme here). I'm trying to not let that kind of thing sway me too much at this stage of the proceedings.
What does this even mean?
All right. Why? You may have already said somewhere else but just re-summarize this for me, because I certainly don't see it.
as it is stated, I don't think Tom has done anything out of the ordinary, or wolfy, and the only thing that might ping me is if his train built up, and votes started to move away in a way that felt malicious
I always tell myself I don't think I'd catch wolf!tom based off his own posts but rather POE and train movement, which I guess is contradictory to the above statement, but ohh well, wouldn't really want to see him go day 1 anyways
where did u go?
The false bravado is probably NAI. Maybe you actually believe you won't be the lynch today, or maybe you're just saying that to try and deter further wagoning, idk.
That last bit is.. what is it, AtE? Fearmongering? You're for sure telling us not to lynch you for reasons that have nothing to do with your alingment there, possibly hinting that the game will stagnate without you? Yeah that's fearmongering.
So, no. I'm not gonna go elsewhere. You take my vote and you like it.
I recall it being who my scum reads are a la Syrenze's post.
Shadow is currently my top scumread. I disagree with his beeboy read, and he made a couple posts I highlighted as really scummy,
My second is... Last. I haven't said anything about this read yet, but Last doesn't feel like town last. He's not... quite as vocal as he usually is, nor as... idk town. I ALWAYS end up catching town Last. And I haven't yet.
As for a third... I don't really have a hard read on this spot. I will say I would like to see more from Vaimes, and I still want to read up on Fuwa's games.
Honorable mention to Az solely for the reason I feel like he's not looking for/finding enough town. My interpretation of his play is that's kinda how he plays. And I'm not seeing that.
As far as Tom goes, he’s said a few things that I think line up with town Tom. Unless he’s exactly partners with Cantrip (which I doubt) then his Cantrip read is a bit too prohibitive for scum!tom. Also, I think he’d be making more useless posts if he’s scum. I don’t disagree that self wagon analysis can be useful, but I can do that much later, and the wagon exists to analyze, it doesn’t need to keep existing. And frankly (and sorry if you’re town) you’re wagon analysis was pretty lackluster, regardless of your alignment.
And yes, me shooing you away is a townie reaction because I’m town and that’s my reaction. The bravado ain’t false, I was mislynched in secret agent and I will not let that happen here. I have a relatively good idea as to why it happened there, and I’m not about to make the same mistake. It’s not though, it’s good Mafia theory. Lynching the top poster day one is bad, and anyone who has played long enough will tell you that’s true, even if they really want not to. I was actually talking to...Voxx I think, and over the course of MU’s long form games, average mislynch percentage for day 1 is about 50%, and average mislynch percentage for the top poster on a day 1 is about 4%. Plus, if you really think the top poster is scum, giving them even more time to say a bunch of crap that can hang their buddies or clear townies is good play.
(*My numbers may be off, but not by that much, I’m going from memory though)
So let me get this straight. You think that because the three wagons are on people who are good at being scum, they can't be all on scum. Never mind the fact that even if these wagons on people who haven't posted once and were just zombies that didn't speak the chance of being all three on scum was zero. So yeah, you just made a big post where you said absolutely nothing.
Town KJ makes insightful posts that even though I might not agree with them, actually make some sense. This is just posting for the sake of posting and is very indicative of scum kj.
I'm still liking my vote on chris, but goddamn if I don't want to lynch this slot too.
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Yeah, wtf I'm not touching the shadow wagon with a ten foot pole.
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vote killjoy
You asked shadow for reasons why you shouldn't vote for him. He then responded with reasons why you shouldn't vote for him and you accuse him of fearmongering?
The only thing that's giving me pause is the fact that KJ is so bold to champion a lynch on shadow. Does he really think as scum that he can get a lynch on him? Maybe he is trying to put his vote somewhere no on his buddies.
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IDK what the **** I was on when I made this post, but there is nothing in the thread that makes me think this after re-reading the exchange. Hell, I might've confused a Cantrip post with a Sir Chris post. The beeboy defense seems self contained.
@KCC: Can you explain your reasoning for this post? I'm trying to remember why I thought this and seeing as you had the same idea as me, an explanation from you would help.
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I use to have this exact problem with Az, but it is possible to read around that. And that isn't what I'm seeing here. Az isn't being overly confident, he's being irrational. That's not townAz
I guess I can pull out my laptop for you
This vague initial read is fine, and I wouldn't have batted an eye at it, though I'm glad shadow pushed him for more
Where to start here...
Okay, first, I'm not happy he posted this at all. -I didn't get this impression from bee's post the first time I read it, but then again, I'm not actively looking for powerroles to kill. But let's say, hypothetically, a townChris was observant enough to catch this without being focused on powerrole hunting.... why announce this in the thread? If the scum missed his accidental claim the first time, they've definitely seen it now!
Second, I still haven't seen an explanation for why Chris jumped to sloppy-town-slip over sloppy-scum-slip? -That certainly wasn't my first reaction. I know when I draw a powerrole as town, I don't immediately assume rolemadness, but I have had that thought when being in an absurdly powerful scum team. Yes, bee has explained his thought process in detail now, and I do believe him, but that info wasn't in the thread yet at the time Chris made this declaration! Even worse, I've asked Chris to explain this 3 times now. The first was ignored, the second time he chose to try playing semantics rather than actually answering, and the third time he ignored it again...
This is the post that really set off my alarms.
This was a valid concern that needed explaining from bee. Chris making up an answer for him is not helpful town play. Worse, this explanation doesn't even make sense. But Chris never saw this as a potential inconsistency because Chris already knows bee is town here, and just wanted bee and everyone to know who was defending a townie.
(Bee did later respond and explain this issue... in a way that was consistent and made sense... not Chris's "oops I misremembered" reasoning)
Shadow gave three non-responses. Well, the last one "lynching the Top poster is a bad idea" is not completely a non-response, but it is completely non-alignment indicative. I can see Shadow giving snarky responses to Killjoy just due to the fact that it was a bad question, but if you snark at someone then you shouldn't be too surprised when they come back and vote you for it.
In other news, I now have a pretty strong Town read on KCC. Carry on.
I don't see what's wrong with that. I don't get why you have to emphasize that I wanted to help him read me. It doesn't matter if he needed the help or not.
When you are lying and know you are lying, you will repeat yourself over and over. It is why 100% 'same thing' is a bit odd when questioning someone. Someone giving slightly different answers that make sense isn't 'oops I misremembered' but rather just how memory works.
I can understand thinking it is strange, especially since we've never played together, but I really do have a history of accusations of knowing too much because I make aggressive town reads of people. Just how I am.
Also Killjoy is right (because I am town if nothing else) about not all of these wagons being scum. On day 1 when town has to deal with bumbling and misunderstandings having all good scum as wagons independently pretty much never happens. Someone should also teach Shadow that no one gives a **** how many posts you have if you use them to smear someone with lies.
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Beeboy "misremembering" or giving different reasoning for the role madness thing isn't weird, given that he explained afterwards, but Sir Chris not being set off by it is.If Beeboy is town, Sir Chris defense of him is TMI.
Oh rip, someone said this already. Brownie to KCC and vezok then.
@Vaimes why do you want a wagon on tom?
I think Cantrip is nitpicking and asking for unnecessary details about the role madness thing from Beeboy. I'd think this is scummy, but he claimed before that poking like this is something he'd do even as town so hmm.
I like his later interactions with others. It's more engaging than commentary. (Which is what I'm doing but oh well)
I was thinking Shadow is reasonable until #506. It doesn't sound like he's actually scumreading Chris. But I don't think I want to lynch here.
@Lastwhisper why do you keep pinging me but asking me nothing? :<
Also, why do you like the wagon on Shadow?
Vote Sir Chris
It matters because you didn't approach this like he was subtly mudslinging you; you approached it as though you thought he was actually trying to get a read and could be persuaded.
Sorry, I just woke up and I like to read threads backwards, I didn't even see this big part.
First off, you are saying Scum Chris decided to announce to the thread that he had seen someone claim power instead of just... quietly noting it and murdering said power at night. Secondly, you are saying that Scum Chris chose to defend town power who had pressure on them instead of letting towns do what towns do best and eat them alive and hopefully save me as scum the trouble of having to use my night kill on a marginal town player who just happened to roll power by town doing my dirty work for me. If someone says in thread that they think it is role madness, unless they are making a play, they have just claimed power of some variety. I mean... duh. Vanillas can't exactly think on role madness very hard. If the scum team is so inept that they didn't figure that out I am not going to be too stressed this game as they suck.
I can see an exceptionally powerful scum team thinking about role madness and discussing it. I also know that scum then wouldn't randomly drop that in the middle of day one. At least not good scum. I always assume if someone makes a 'oops' play, they are town. Why? Because I am right at least 90% of the time. I have been wrong, it's not an exact science, but I know for certain towns mislynch over bad reasoning a lot more than I forgive scum for a mistake. So I play those odds every time, and also see how the person reacts to my defense. I don't just make a read and never change it if need be. It's the first step. Beeboy seems good though.
We have more town than we do scum, so by default it is more likely it is a sloppy town slip. Simple math, really. Also you learn a lot when you push against things. When you think on it. Last game I wasn't at my best for example, but by grinding away at obvious lynches I came away with 'someone was for sure bussing Lng day 1' and I was right, it was Shadow. Who I suspected quite a bit. To his credit he got me off of him day 2 with good play, and then he was shot night 2. But my methods of resisting and then analyzing the resistance led me down a good path even if I was outplayed for a day.
For example. Shadow has gone from "I don't agree with this" to "This is GARBAGE" to "Look man can't we just agree and scum hunt together?" You, KCC, are not happy with how I defended beeboy. You are like "wtf" and are punching me in the face. I like that, it reaffirms my town lean on you I had earlier because you come off earnest despite momentum going away from my lynch. You don't care about momentum, you think I am scum. You are sincere. Shadow, like me, sensed that my lynch was losing steam quickly as he gained votes and cowardly sought to bring me on board to his survival while cloaking himself in his post count as a means to live. For someone who called my read "garbage" and "weak" he was quick to forgive my transgressions.
Not such a good look, as compared to you.
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Why do you not want to lynch the person who isn't scum reading me but is pretending to, precisely?
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I pinged you once if I recall, and I'm not voting Shadow?
@killjoy
the good ole not posting content read kek, the lack of emotion comes from the fact that nothing has triggered me yet
this doesnt feel like wolf!chris lmao