Sorry if I just missed the posts all together. But can someone tell me why they think Shadow is town?
I see comments on how the scum reads on him are bad or how the players voting him are wolfy but I don't think I see many reasons to actually town read him?
That's honestly going to persuade me to vote Az a lot faster because the only reason I don't want to vote him is because I don't want to easily give up a wagon in compromise of the wagonee's preferred wagon.
this is still a wolf post
Would clear shadow from flip
I'm back, work is slow, and it's time to catch up.
I think Chris and KCC are both town. That fight over Beeboy would have had some sort of pivot if one of them was scum.
I don't get the Az wagon. Cantrips pretty much seems to be a direct response to 522 I guess? I don't know what Shadow and KCC are voting him for. Does 564 have a typo or am I dumb? LW's is downright scummy.
Vez is really townie.
As is Vaimes.
Vote: Tom
dont agree with a whole lot of this but i do like thinking about az wagon on its own merits
Guess it could be an excuse to oppose the wagon, worth keeping an eye on
@AZ: I expect you'll ignore this question as well, but can you explain why your vote is on shadow, instead of me? -I was the first to vote Chris, for these exact same reasons you are holding against shadow.
I actually already did, and so has Chris. Once again, it's not what you do. It's the way you do it. Your vote on Chris was fine. I wasn't quite sure what to make of that particular Chris post myself. But the way shadow went about his attack, has scum written all over it. Too much hyperbole, too salivating at the prospect of scoring points on him.
Then, there's his defensive posts versus me. Trying to make an argument that he wouldn't possibly attack a town Chris as scum this early in the game, because of potential blowback. Not buying that false premise, at all.
sure, I'll vote Azrael, I still would like to know why he voted me vote: Azreal
and to be fair, Shadow is right, we aren't lynching top-posting Shadow if he is a wolf anyways
Sorry, I just woke up and I like to read threads backwards, I didn't even see this big part.
First off, you are saying Scum Chris decided to announce to the thread that he had seen someone claim power instead of just... quietly noting it and murdering said power at night. Secondly, you are saying that Scum Chris chose to defend town power who had pressure on them instead of letting towns do what towns do best and eat them alive and hopefully save me as scum the trouble of having to use my night kill on a marginal town player who just happened to roll power by town doing my dirty work for me. If someone says in thread that they think it is role madness, unless they are making a play, they have just claimed power of some variety. I mean... duh. Vanillas can't exactly think on role madness very hard. If the scum team is so inept that they didn't figure that out I am not going to be too stressed this game as they suck.
I can see an exceptionally powerful scum team thinking about role madness and discussing it. I also know that scum then wouldn't randomly drop that in the middle of day one. At least not good scum. I always assume if someone makes a 'oops' play, they are town. Why? Because I am right at least 90% of the time. I have been wrong, it's not an exact science, but I know for certain towns mislynch over bad reasoning a lot more than I forgive scum for a mistake. So I play those odds every time, and also see how the person reacts to my defense. I don't just make a read and never change it if need be. It's the first step. Beeboy seems good though.
We have more town than we do scum, so by default it is more likely it is a sloppy town slip. Simple math, really. Also you learn a lot when you push against things. When you think on it. Last game I wasn't at my best for example, but by grinding away at obvious lynches I came away with 'someone was for sure bussing Lng day 1' and I was right, it was Shadow. Who I suspected quite a bit. To his credit he got me off of him day 2 with good play, and then he was shot night 2. But my methods of resisting and then analyzing the resistance led me down a good path even if I was outplayed for a day.
For example. Shadow has gone from "I don't agree with this" to "This is GARBAGE" to "Look man can't we just agree and scum hunt together?" You, KCC, are not happy with how I defended beeboy. You are like "wtf" and are punching me in the face. I like that, it reaffirms my town lean on you I had earlier because you come off earnest despite momentum going away from my lynch. You don't care about momentum, you think I am scum. You are sincere. Shadow, like me, sensed that my lynch was losing steam quickly as he gained votes and cowardly sought to bring me on board to his survival while cloaking himself in his post count as a means to live. For someone who called my read "garbage" and "weak" he was quick to forgive my transgressions.
Also I see no reason to be scum reading Azrael at present. No one has really done a good job of refuting the Shadow wagon beyond 'top poster' which is honestly trash logic.
chris finally comments and its a big oof
Oh and then its start of shadow v chris sounds like a good time to stop for lunch
(Yes its lunch no i dont care its 6 pm)
Well, my evil friction based plan worked better than I had even hoped for. I'll be less abrasive today.
Vaimes thought Azrael couldn't play his stuff before EoD. Az did but Vaimes was unmoved. Town.
Vezok counterclaimed the scum in a very believable way. Town.
Axel wanted to punch me in the face for my Fuwa antics. Town.
KCC felt pure all day and also stabbed Az repeatedly. Town.
Killjoy "didn't like either lynch" but ended on the scum, that's likely town.
Fuwa was voted on by a few people I find suspect and I kind of like when people want to stab me, so they are probably town too.
So late in the day one of my sneaky opinions is "Oh man no matter Az's alignment shadow is probably town here due to wagonomics, how interesting" and that holds true now that he was scum.
So let's see 7 town reads based off wagons throughout the day. Probably have to downgrade Beeboy to "maybe" just because that read isn't as strong as wagonomics but that leaves 3ish scum in Tom/Wisp/Grapefruit/DK but everyone tells me DK looks really good so we'll see. Oh, Cantripmancer somehow avoided my list both ways. He's probably ok for now.
Tom's "oh man shouldn't have hammered in case he is town for Vezok" feels super scum.
Doom and gloom? Far from it, I think town learned a lot from day 1 and it is incredibly helpful, however with the amount of people I have as town read and looking over people's lists I am squarely not town read by just about anyone. My lynch is likely inevitable which isn't a bad thing for town overall probably as it should provide clarity. I am not saying today or anything and it isn't like I am going to stop posting or answering questions, but writing is kind of on the wall. I am quite pleased with the direction of the game.
I don't know why people think I am egotistical or that me being wrong about Az would effect me in any way. Right, wrong, it happens in mafia. We overcame my misread, lynched scum day 1, and although my read was wrong we gained information which the only cost was to my accuracy rate, which I am perfectly fine getting over.
Also I am fine with my effort today, I have made my reads and am mulling over things. Going max effort all the time just isn't viable for me any more so I have to think on things. If you look at my history me being wrong day 1 is much more in my town meta than my scum meta, as hilarious as that is! I don't like being wrong as scum, I am a total control freak. I certainly wouldn't buck that trend to be the only person defending Az for like 3 straight days.
Speaking of, assume I am town for a moment please Vezok - that would mean literally no scum defended Az for many, many days. What does this mean to you? Does it shake any of your reads?
Ah, I didn't explain the thoughts in my head very well on Wisp. Dk said "this wasn't the scum response I was expecting" but upon reading what Wisp wrote about how he should have paid more attention and not posted in v/la it seemed almost confessional rather than explaining a town thought process. Like "Oh yeah, probably shouldn't have tried to save my buddy there and gotten the facts wrong oops." So when Wisp was going over his process it felt neutral in its defense, not alignment indicating. I believe him when he says he didn't realize Az had stopped pushing as hard, but that mistake can be made as either alignment. I can understand the confusion though, I didn't really put any of this to paper.
This is scum on the defensive not worrying about their "worldview". Town!Chris even in a hypothetical to Vez here doesn't drop the scum read on me, he uses that as an opportunity to assert his world view and continue his push on me. He isn't here. And it's because he doesn't think he has the cache to push this. He can tell the momentum to kill me has evaporated and he's changing the framing to try and make himself look better. There is just a massive disconnect between his vote on me and telling Vez that if he's town then no scum defended Az so we need to open up the PoE.
Grapefruit you can at least go back to the post where I admitted I was tunneling you that was way before the last post lol.
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Next couple pages is only 1 az vote (rhand in 733)
There is some potential attempts to deflect the wagon.
Chris and beeboy doubling down on shadow, axel focusing in on chris v shadow, grape still looking at "bad" wagons, dkings with the classic "yeah az is scummy, but DAE grapefruit" might be the worst of the bunch
We get some exposition on why az doesnt think hes scummy. Also a push on shadow thats a pretty good look
And him doubling down on grape townread as his wagon swells seems <rand w/w
Now here's me popping in and catching up i already quoted some of this lol
OK fine, I'll move. Grapefruit can wait for more analysis since people think I'm chasing ghosts with him.
Vote Azrael
@Killjoy, I apologize if you said previously that work was keeping you from being active. I must have missed it. Now, since you're specifically one of the players not pushing against Azrael, what do you think of his 311 in response to Rhand asking for a scum game?
this is the bussiest vote so far. Especially coming right after both kcc and vaimes hammering the nail a bit
also Ill reiterate my feelings on Azreal
I don't really think he has done anything wolfy, but I'd be lying if I didnt expect more from him based on what I've been told
and the last time I played with Azrael was my first game on this site, which I dont really remember, nor do I care enough to reread it
meta reads like that are pretty obnoxious, since there could be a list of reasons why he is playing this way as town
this is +town
Scumlast gets nothing from this post.
Wagon at L-1 before shadow unvoted to wait for claim:
Azrael (8): Cantrip, shadow, Kcc, Vaimes, Rhand, tom, dkings, vezok
All my townreads are on him, and im leaning town on shadow and vaimes too so dkings the only real question mark on the wagon
Rest of the votal at that time:
shadow (4): Chris, Azrael, kj, beeboy
tom (2): Axel, Grape
Chris (1): Fuwa
Abstain (1): Last
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Alright thats through the awful fuwa popin that made me vote her. Thats prolly my first iso once ive read everything
Azrael posts in this section make me further townread vaimes and is an ok look for kj (az kinda sucking up to him)
Chris is really throwing anything he can think of against an az lynch.
Would be pretty hilarious if he finally decided to powerwolf and it went this poorly...
I can’t quote the posts right now because I’m on mobile... Azrael hand-waved my Killjoy case multiple times during D1, then in post 997 he made a point of saying I was upset because people were ignoring my “good” reads. The read in question: the Killjoy case he ***** all over.
Plus KJ’s late day posts about Azrael were super scummy, as was the way he dodged both wagons.
Role seems pretty straightforward, and given that she's unlikely to be on Azrael's team, I don't think it's worth pressing her.
If both wagons were scum, the scumteam prioritizes saving Azrael 99% of the time. Possible that Fuwa is lying about her role, but claiming JOAT after Azrael AND vezok seems too weird for scum.
It would be an odd strategic choice. But I have a feeling it was less a choice and more a horrible accident.
yeah i think its fairly clear scum werent heavily influencing the day. Its always possible someone bussed hard but im not seeing that here it seems far more likely if theres scum on him its a latecomer (relative late because the move to fuwa and back messed with the order of votes a bit).
<Dkings, fuwa, kj>
Killjoy posted at #1238 and equivocated. I don't even understand his mentality here, he says "Thought for later: maybe there's actually multiple joats." Suggesting he might believe Fuwa, but doesn't really argue against his lynch or for anyone else. He just throws it out there. This might not be inconsistent with Killjoy not liking either of the choices. And if Killjoy were scum, it would have been so, so easy to jump on Fuwa there. Thinking about it more, it seems like Killjoy might be Town waffling here, unless he's specifically scum with both Az and Fuwa. Maybe he could be gunshy scum who was afraid of looking like he was defending a scumbuddy and locked into not voting from his previous statements. But the bad claim would have given him an easy out to try and save Az if he just went for it.
So, now I'm calling that a Town-lean
i was liking this til you started towning him...
Sure he could have moved to fuwa to "save az" but he was zero impact at eod i doubt he was attempting to accomplish anything at all regardless
I'm still confident that Az doesn't try to town clear a buddy grape in those circumstances.
Why not?
The point of that post was to mimic his in depth analysis, which is easy to do when you know someone is town.
If grape was under more pressure, or if it wasn't worded as confidently, then maybe. But I just don't think Az is capable of making that post knowing grape is scum.
The timing (very early game, before Grape had much pressure) is actually part of why I'm questioning. I wouldn't put it past Az to champion a buddy and shut down attacks against Grape, never dreaming that he himself would ever even flip, much less end up being the lunch for the Day. Not damning for Grape, but I don't feel like it clears him as much as you think it does.
i do think its notable that in az first post after his wagon materialized, he reiterated it and added on
@Tom
shoot Shadow plz, he got the benefit of the top post day 1, and this micro read trumps everything he's done on a macro level, ill will eat a sock if he's town after making that *****ty post
I find it likely Tom is scum who got a day vig because we successfully lynched scum (the evil version of Vezok's condition) and also if he has a dayvig it is probably low EV to use it today as town. In a high powered setup much better to use it later on but since I think he is scum and is trying to "prove himself" then anyone who is not in my town confirm is fine.
@KCC: is the type of player that will do literally anything regardless of alignment. He plays for his own enjoyment of the game regardless of anyone’s alignment.
the second regardless is not actually true when im scum!
I find it likely Tom is scum who got a day vig because we successfully lynched scum (the evil version of Vezok's condition) and also if he has a dayvig it is probably low EV to use it today as town. In a high powered setup much better to use it later on but since I think he is scum and is trying to "prove himself" then anyone who is not in my town confirm is fine.
Do you just come up with the worst justifications for why people can be scum for fun?
Hiding a day vig and not using it instantly is probably the dumbest play anyone can make.
Everyone has either glossed over or ignored the other point I made against Killjoy in the post where I voted him. In 52, he uses a assertive tone toward KCC when he says "walk me through this". He wants an answer. Then, when KCC gives him one just a few posts later, he doesn't acknowledge it and just agrees with her re:Fuwa, with a "toss this out and see if it sticks" vibe.
Town. Actually getting upset when people don't pick up on his good reads. How many scum think to fake that kind of emotion?
Do you guys really not think this is a thing?
so youre saying az TMIed your read on kj was correct?
The next thing I'm looking at is how the votes shifted from Az to Fuwa in that very, very short period of time ~ 1 day from the deadline. And then the last thing would be to look closer at how Az got run up in the first place, but that's definitely another day.
Pre-Az claim, the vote count looked like this (this count was posted after the claim, but nothing had changed at that point yet):
Vote Count 1.23
Azrael (7): Cantripmancer, KittyCupCake, Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967, vezokpiraka, shadowlancerx
shadowlancerx (4): Sir Chris, Azrael, killjoy, beeboy
tomsloger (2): Axelrod, Grapefruit21
Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
dkingsland967 (1): tomsloger
Abstain (1): Lastwhisper
With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch..
With probably several people, myself included, having stated they were waiting to see what Az was going to say when he came back.
Post-claim I was the first one to say anything, and my initial, initial reaction was that I didn't want to lynch this claim. Seemed powerful, flavorful, useful if Az was Town. But I had questions, and even as I was typing my post I could feel something was wrong with it. Just didn't make sense as claimed, so I followed up, and didn't like the follow-up answers either.
Beeboy then said he was "falling" for the claim. Which might be an interesting choice of words.
Interestingly, Grapefruit's initial response is to call on a hypothetical vig. to shoot Az in the night.
Shadow expresses uncertainty, seeing that if we let the claim go, we would almost be committed to letting Az live until D3, which would be the earliest he could "prove" anything to us.
Dking expressed doubts, but for a weird reason in my opinion. He doesn't think the "Cop" shot Az claimed lines of with the "Flavor" of Karn. Of all the reasons to have problems with the claim, this...was not one of them. My spider sense is tingling a tiny bit here.
Vaimes fairly unequivocally disbelieved the claim. Even the part that was immediately provable, which seemed a little silly to me, but okay.
Vez also weighed in that he thought Az was lying.
Ditto Rhand.
Man, no one (except Beeboy?) has believed it yet. How did all the votes swing away? Inquiring minds want to know. But, once again, I gotta run. Back later.
beeboy wording there is super scummy
Dkings stuff is pretty weird but not part of my read
Grape i think just hates tron, which is reasonable and probably nai (other than the fact townies love wurmcoil engine)
If I wasn't me I would say shooting me is a good shot tbh. Way too many people think I am scum right now, no one seems to be seeing my town perspective, and so getting me off the board probably wouldn't hurt. I know I am town though so I must insist that's not a good idea but I wouldn't be too upset to die today. I am much more sad about being mislynched than vig shot, especially when I think that vig is scum.
Tom posts and it appears that he reads Vez's counter-claim as a slam dunk against Az. But then says/does nothing else. I'll reiterate that this just does not seem to me like Town behavior.
ok i dont usually defend myself but between this and some posts around eod talking about me wasting my vote and *****, id like to clarify
I was trying to catch up and only half paying attention to what was going on in the present. Reading it now yall were in eod mode and im just like "derp derp reading posts from last week"
I did see that claim and counterclaim as a "slam dunk" on az, but there wasnt any room for me on the wagon at the time
Ftr, im resetting my view on the setup a bit with fuwa and last claims. So my mechanical read on az possibly wasnt valid but it was still right so
Anyway i think if fuwa is town i deserve an amount of scrutiny for voting them i guess but im always gonna wagon and ***** so meh
Grapefruit you can at least go back to the post where I admitted I was tunneling you that was way before the last post lol.
So with that admission what exactly is your read? Because the post I jumped all over suggests it's a town read but the post you pointed to really leaves the door open for just about anything.
@Fuwa if you can only use one ever how is Vaimes fishing?
@tom why so low on KJ? You barely mentioned him after him being such a focus for you D1.
i learned yesterday that i’ve literally not logged in to mtgs on my phone once since the curse/twitch/amazon nonsense, so please excuse the ghosting. i had to find my password.
tom if you actually have a day vig please shoot me so i can go yell at proph about putting a day vig in his game.
also you and a couple of other people have made comments on my posts being awful. given that i posted... twice? maybe three times? i’m curious as to how you could draw such a strong conclusion.
i think i already asked axelrod this question.
to help me get into the game faster, anybody have anything they’d like me to read + give opinions on? people/game events etc.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I'm going to finish this piece. Then do something else.
It's hard looking back to see/remember how fast the posts were coming, but there was a long period after Az claimed where there was no movement on any wagons. We were sitting there. Some of us had unanswered questions for Az, but there wasn't really any push anywhere else. Didn't seem like anyone's opinions had changed much. Looked like Az lynch was going to happen.
Az started doing his longer posts looking at people and giving more opinions, and I'm sure that helped some people decide to come off of him later. He asked for an extension.
The first vote for Fuwa came @1086 from Grapefruit. For basically the reason that he did not want to lynch the claimed Cop shot. This is something he had previously stated, so, nothing really new. He's also adamantly against a deadline extension, however, and in hindsight that's fairly Townie. Given that he has stated he doesn't want Az lynched, were he scumbuddies, one would think he might have supported an extension request - frankly, even if he's Town I would have thought he might have supported this if he didn't want Az lynched - but he did not.
I posted and I did support the deadline extension request *unpats self*
In my defense, Az had started making longer, more analytical posts on all the players and I thought that was a good thing, regardless of his alignment. Whichever way he flipped, it would give us more to work with.
Chris voted for Tom. Possibly trying to get an alternate wagon moving. There were a few people who had indicated support in that direction.
Ah, then Fuwa showed up. This is what started it. She made a few posts that indicated she had been busy and hadn't had time to catch up, and then the remark that apparently sets herself on fire when she responded to an accusation of her possibly being "inexperienced scum" and said she wasn't, she was just busy.
Chris pounces immediately. Votes Fuwa in #1118. Two reasons given (1) Doesn't like Fuwa supporting a deadline extension request while at the same time saying she will only be around for a little bit. (2) Responding to the accusation of being inexperienced scum when "no one accused you of being scum." I think both of these points might be invalid, in as much as Fuwa was saying she wasn't going to be around for long now, but if there was an extension, that would give her time to catch up and make a more intelligent vote later as opposed to just "sheeping" someone. This doesn't seem unreasonable to me. And the second point was just wrong in as much as I think someone (Azrael?) did suggest that Fuwa might be inexperienced scum at one point.
Shadow joins the Fuwa wagon at #1124, and I think this probably officially makes it "a thing." He doesn't say why except that he was "down" to explore that avenue at present. Perhaps consistent with his waffling on Az a bit. We have ~12 hours left until the deadline at this point.
I'm obviously not a fan of this movement. In general I dislike last minute CFDs (unless I'm pushing one of course, but that would only be if I really, really thought the person was scum, or was really really convinced we were about to mislynch. Not just to "see what happens" with 12 hours until deadline. That's irresponsible to me.)
Shadow petitions for more Fuwa votes in #1130. This could just be a differing philosophy at work here, but yeah, not a fan. He explains his reasoning a little better in #1135
I was down on Fuwa before, and her pop in is all kinds of wolfy. Since we don’t have the risk of no lynch, applying some pressure and seeing what comes seems like a fine thing to do
Then says:
I’d say I’m about 50% on Az being scum, and maybe slightly higher on Fuwa. Not by a lot.
Tom joins the Fuwa wagon in #1146 with a "lol" and :popcorneating. Then elaborates he's "More or less happy with these wagons" and "Dont think theyre more likely scum than az, but definitely >rand after that popin and its the best counterwagon weve had." You may imagine how unimpressed I am with this.
Ugh. Cantrip vehemently argues against the Fuwa wagon in #1138, #1147 and #1157. Then votes Fuwa in #1162. He acts like he's been bullied into it by a combination of Chris/Tom/Shadow and says "You can't all be scum!" Does say that he would happily go back to Az, but the switch is still bad. Since when do you get bullied, Cantrip? This ties the vote count, I believe, at 5-5.
Cantrip then elaborates on his vote in #1165, but it does seem like he put the cart before the horse a bit. Almost as though he knew his flip-flop looked bad and was trying to justify it after the fact. That is something he could do as Town as well though.
Then KCC of all people switches to Fuwa in #1168 with a :shrug. KCC had expressed some concerns about Fuwa before, but had always said Az first. I am presuming this was for the "just push this to see where it goes" reasoning, and not because it suddenly looked so much better.
Vez votes Fuwa in #1183. He also requests deadline extension because he won't be around and he really doesn't want to lynch Fuwa. This is consistent with him needing to be on lynches as Fuwa is now the leading wagon and we are close to deadline. Now it's 7-3.
That's peak Fuwa wagon. I come back and opine that I think this wagon is stupid. But that doesn't actually move the dial for anyone as far as I can see. It's KCC switching the vote back to Az in #1200 that begins the comeback - though LW still votes for Fuwa first. And then I think Shadow switches back as I discussed previously.
Given we don't actually know Fuwa's alignment it's hard to make a firm conclusion about any of this. If I assume Fuwa is Town though, the worst looking votes were: Chris, Tom, Cantrip, Last Whisper.
I excuse GF for starting it and being very explicit it was because he just didn't want to lynch a claimed Cop Shot - but then not wishing for an extension at a point when it still looked like Az was the lynch. Shadow was also fairly explicit he just wanted to see a counterwagon in action and (apparently) felt like there was plenty of time to explore this before deadline. Shadow later redeems himself going back to Az. KCC I already said is Town or one of the most epic of bussers. And Vez is also very likely Town already for reasons not even having to do with this, but his vote is still consistent.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@Tom
shoot Shadow plz, he got the benefit of the top post day 1, and this micro read trumps everything he's done on a macro level, ill will eat a sock if he's town after making that *****ty post
Grape is town
Vaimes is town
Kcc is town
ill work out everyone else at one point
gunna go back to reading, also good luck lynching me, I am unlynchable
“you don’t know Fuwa’s alignment so you can’t prove it was a bad vote” had the potential to be a villagery statement if it was followed by “Axel knows Fuwa’s alignment, so he’s scum” or something similar.
But I don’t think it would occur to scum!LW to think that far. As is, it just reads as panicky.
(1) Did you have this day-vig on D1 and choose not to use/say anything about it, or did it not come "online" as it were until today?
(2) Can this be a Night-Vig or is it Day only?
(3) Is it use now or lose it, or can you save for later?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Fuwa, haven't heard from you for a bit; Chris's wagon has faltered. Who else do you want to pressure? (Could it be....Azrael?)
Most likely shadow actually. I like Azrael's posts, but others made pretty convincing points against him too... so I'm just gonna observe how his train goes. I don't feel like joining it, nor am I against it.
this is a post i wanted to look back on with flip
Lot of layers here
You can always just say what's on your mind whether it's a scum or a town flip
Shooting in that bottom 4 for sure. Prolly iso all 4 tomorrow
I still think Chris is the best choice here. Not only because I think it's a high probability shot, but it also should be the most informative flip.
Also, it will save me the trouble of trying to lynch him, which is almost certainly what I'll be doing the rest of the Day if he's alive.
Quote from Axelrod »
Then KCC of all people switches to Fuwa in #1168 with a :shrug. KCC had expressed some concerns about Fuwa before, but had always said Az first. I am presuming this was for the "just push this to see where it goes" reasoning, and not because it suddenly looked so much better.
More or less. I was planning to move back to Az unless fuwa completely imploded. We obviously weren't lynching Az until much closer to the deadline, so it was something to do in the meantime.
Not sure if I want to answer that first question.
Not sure yet. I'm having a lot more likes than dislikes now. Even Chris starts to sound good to me.
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@Fuwa how is Vaimes fishing given that you've claimed everything about your role?
It's just a thought. Because knowing I can only shoot once means I'm essentially vanilla after my shot therefore useless but if I still have them, one of it may lay on scum.
But since two other people asked me, I might not be thinking at the right direction. And I think KCC is confirmed town to me.
TMI there dictates that I vote him for it. TMI is making correct assumptions with scum knowledge. So if Beeboy is town me hopping on him being town early is at least a valid TMI thought because it is a possibility. Me saying something while defending a scum and calling it TMI just makes no sense.
Also I would read basically no one as scum for what I said there because I don't think scum use that as a tact to defend their heavily suspected buddy.
What? Why does TMI dictate that you vote him for it? I'm saying YOU had TMI about Az's role (contrary to your assertion that you just "guessed" that he was holding something back) because you're scum with him. And asking him that was trying to make people less interested in lunching him/making his claim more believable.
Vig, please shoot the tron and dredge players. Please and thank you.
What would you say the chances are that scum!you decides to make an RVS joke about shooting decks your buddies have as an early distancing effort you could point back to?
Like every part of me wanted to open the day with the shot and see what happens
But im being responsible.
I never did catch up yesterday and the 5 or so pages im missing are the meat of the AZ wagon lol
It says something, I think, that this actually makes you feel more scummy, not less, imo. I think town!Tom is more likely to just take the shot and ride out the backlash/bask in accolades. That said, I nodded along with a lot of your catch-up, so I'm not really feeling scum!you overall. If you're scum and just playing me, good job, I guess.
@cantrip
Those 3 posts depend on the location in the thread tbh
Anything that I said in the past week was literally spit ball analysis based on what I did see, and I also though later on that Azreal's posts were better than they actually were
Also contradicting myself is pretty NAI, I've send at points I don't see why Wolf!Az makes those posts as either alignment towards grape, buts it's way more likely that they aren't w/w from them
Yeah, last night I was like, wait, did I just ask Wisp of all people why he wasn't consistent in his opinion? You'd think I'd have learned from Phantom.
Wait, what is that KCC post? No, but votes anyways????
Was that ever explained or questioned?
iirc, kcc talked about remembering playing with az fondly
I think this is "sad i have to kill him", which i doubt a buddy expresses
Why "have to kill him" at that point in the Day when KCC was the 3rd vote on a wagon that wasn't guaranteed to lead to a claim much less a lunch? That question isn't really the question I want to ask, but I can't verbalize what pings me about this response. Talk to me about this.
I'm really torn, as well, because I have reasons to want strong competing wagons, so I'd love to make Fuwa a thing, but her wagon has pretty much all my suspects other than Az, and just...no.
Me throwing my hands up was me deciding that it was unlikely that I was right about everyone that was on Fuwa was scum, and deciding to see what a Fuwa wagon resulted in.
Elaborating in 1165 was because I decided it would be better to be open about my reasons rather than just vaguely alluding to them in 1157 (one of which I almost got really stuck on, hence the question to Fuwa in 1139).
@Cantrip
lmao, I'm not going to make up some deep reason, I have literally no idea what I was thinking back then
best guess is I thought he was townie, but not as townie as those above him?
also,
Tom's wagonomic analysis is pretty much what I'd expect from town!tom, so he still is in my town leans, next to KCC/Vezok
/barn Cantrip's response to Sir Chris in the above post
are there more people voting Chris yet?
big trains bring more information? and the more likely we are to get more thoughts from him, and reactions? Hence we get more reason to debate if he should actually be shot?
Im still not wrong, and I'm not talking about his overall content with that post, because they vary between really good and really bad
I stand by opinion
I kind of want to kill LW just because bad votes and his logic is non-existent, but I'm afraid that his defense of "lol, that's just how I am and you can suck it" is virtually unassailable.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Tbh I have given a lot of content and I don't respond well to bull***** pressure. If you think votes are going to make me suddenly care more it is the opposite, I'll just let you mislynch me and move on with my life. Really my only sin this game isn't my methods but some of my conclusions. My effort has been good as has my attitude, so I am not going to be upset with myself if I get pitchforked.
Of course shooting later is better than early, you have more information. In a game like this it is likely power will catch scum and if you don't reveal your shot day 2 you can shoot for sure scum on a later day or keep it in your pocket for when reads crystalize. Shooting later is so much better later that is disgusts me tht it is seen as "dumb" for me to believe otherwise. Having more information to aim at someone makes total sense.
As for your Vezok comment, Tom, it is something I would expect you to realize before going HAMMER TIME and not doing it. As town you actually care about it, as scum you fake that sentiment.
One thing I will say is if you shoot dkings and he flips scum I will have my suspicion of you vanish, because he has said a few things that have bothered me (especially as it relates to the viability of a fuwa shot but also how he seems to live in a 'assume fuwa is town world' for his reads on other people) so I will be interested to see if perhaps this is a giant misunderstanding.
Cantripmancer - I guess if you want to think I'd use that tactic to make people less interested in voting for him I'd do that. Honestly as his scum buddy at that point I might just claim masons with him or something if I am going to go through all of that trouble. I seek conflict in mafia, Az train was boring and if he was scum I thought to myself he isn't a threat and I always lean towards bad play being town until proven otherwise. I guess what is the problem here is people aren't understanding my mindset. To me, just like last game, it is harmless to rail against bad scum play because they die anyway. So I learn things about other people along the way. It is a reason why "fuwa is a good shot" pings me from dkings is because I felt that was one of the better pieces of information we learned by me being stubborn against Az. I have a good faith belief that me being against the Az lynch was better for town in the long run than me being for it. All I care about is town's success, even if I apparently look like a horrible player in the process. My WIM may drained, but I still care about town.
Grapefruit - My read on you is "Az probably didn't instantly call his buddy super town." I didn't like some interactions with rhand day one but Az's play being not so great indicates that read on you makes you town until further notice.
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I kinda resonate with what Chris is saying. Dkings has also pinged me weirdly, but I'm pretty sure he is just town and tom shooting there would be "really bad"
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Would clear shadow from flip dont agree with a whole lot of this but i do like thinking about az wagon on its own merits
Guess it could be an excuse to oppose the wagon, worth keeping an eye on
this <anemic> response to the wagon kinda makes me think its all town at this point
Not sure what to make of the chris stuff chris finally comments and its a big oof
Oh and then its start of shadow v chris sounds like a good time to stop for lunch
(Yes its lunch no i dont care its 6 pm)
This is scum on the defensive not worrying about their "worldview". Town!Chris even in a hypothetical to Vez here doesn't drop the scum read on me, he uses that as an opportunity to assert his world view and continue his push on me. He isn't here. And it's because he doesn't think he has the cache to push this. He can tell the momentum to kill me has evaporated and he's changing the framing to try and make himself look better. There is just a massive disconnect between his vote on me and telling Vez that if he's town then no scum defended Az so we need to open up the PoE.
Vote: Chris
Vote: Chris
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Ohhhh...
Unvote
Unvote
BooBooTheFool.jpeg
There is some potential attempts to deflect the wagon.
Chris and beeboy doubling down on shadow, axel focusing in on chris v shadow, grape still looking at "bad" wagons, dkings with the classic "yeah az is scummy, but DAE grapefruit" might be the worst of the bunch
We get some exposition on why az doesnt think hes scummy. Also a push on shadow thats a pretty good look
And him doubling down on grape townread as his wagon swells seems <rand w/w
Now here's me popping in and catching up i already quoted some of this lol
this is the bussiest vote so far. Especially coming right after both kcc and vaimes hammering the nail a bit this is +town
Scumlast gets nothing from this post.
Wagon at L-1 before shadow unvoted to wait for claim:
Azrael (8): Cantrip, shadow, Kcc, Vaimes,
Rhand, tom, dkings, vezokAll my townreads are on him, and im leaning town on shadow and vaimes too so dkings the only real question mark on the wagon
Rest of the votal at that time:
shadow (4): Chris, Azrael, kj, beeboy
tom (2): Axel, Grape
Chris (1): Fuwa
Abstain (1): Last
How many scum here?
Azrael posts in this section make me further townread vaimes and is an ok look for kj (az kinda sucking up to him)
Chris is really throwing anything he can think of against an az lynch.
Would be pretty hilarious if he finally decided to powerwolf and it went this poorly...
Notable: chris/fuwa never w/w
At the time i just wanted more interesting wagons to look back on then it exploded
If shes town: good look for axel opposing it, bad looks for chris/last
If shes scum too, wagon prolly doesnt matter but kj could be a 3rd buddy
Fuwa shot might bring some clarity tbh prolly my third considerstion rn after my actual scumreads
Fuwa (7): Grape, Chris, shadow, tom, Cantrip, Kcc, vezok
Azrael (3): Vaimes, Rhand, dkings
shadow (2): kj, beeboy
Chris (1): Fuwa
Vaimes (1): Azrael
tom (1): Axel
Abstain (1): Last
Fuwa (7): Grape, Chris, shadow, tom, Cantrip, vezok, Last
Azrael (5): Vaimes, Rhand, dkings, Kcc, Axel,
shadow (2): kj, beeboy
Chris (1): Fuwa
Vaimes (1): Azrael
I think vezok is town, and he needs to be on wagons this is almost interesting lol
Beat you to it kcc/cantrip/shadow
Why would there be?
Yes, 1-shot.
If you understand my role right, isn't this fishing?
If this really is a powerwolf team, its in az/chris/beeboy/kj/grape
More likely a mixed team with dkings/fuwa or some *****
Idk thats not what you were talking about yeah i think its fairly clear scum werent heavily influencing the day. Its always possible someone bussed hard but im not seeing that here it seems far more likely if theres scum on him its a latecomer (relative late because the move to fuwa and back messed with the order of votes a bit).
<Dkings, fuwa, kj> ponder banned in modern yo i was liking this til you started towning him...
Sure he could have moved to fuwa to "save az" but he was zero impact at eod i doubt he was attempting to accomplish anything at all regardless
What do?
Did you use an ability last night?
Whos scum?
Guess im waiting on fuwa and megs for a bit now
i do think its notable that in az first post after his wagon materialized, he reiterated it and added on what post?
Dkings stuff is pretty weird but not part of my read
Grape i think just hates tron, which is reasonable and probably nai (other than the fact townies love wurmcoil engine)
Shadow response to claim pretty townie this being in the middle of a post analyzing the counterwagon is hilarious if this is town chris his pride is broken
I was trying to catch up and only half paying attention to what was going on in the present. Reading it now yall were in eod mode and im just like "derp derp reading posts from last week"
I did see that claim and counterclaim as a "slam dunk" on az, but there wasnt any room for me on the wagon at the time
Ftr, im resetting my view on the setup a bit with fuwa and last claims. So my mechanical read on az possibly wasnt valid but it was still right so
Anyway i think if fuwa is town i deserve an amount of scrutiny for voting them i guess but im always gonna wagon and ***** so meh
Think chris is the scummiest of day 2. Megs and fuwa posts have also sucked
Vez and axel the towniest.
After everything im at
Cantrip/kcc/vezok
Shadow/vaimes
Last/axel
Grape/kj
Fuwa
Chris/dkings/megiddo
Shooting in that bottom 4 for sure. Prolly iso all 4 tomorrow
So with that admission what exactly is your read? Because the post I jumped all over suggests it's a town read but the post you pointed to really leaves the door open for just about anything.
@Fuwa if you can only use one ever how is Vaimes fishing?
@tom why so low on KJ? You barely mentioned him after him being such a focus for you D1.
What exactly is your read on me? Just saying you are done tunneling isn't a read.
@Fuwa how is Vaimes fishing given that you've claimed everything about your role?
@tom what changed on KJ? I'm not seeing your path to a null read on him?
I asked u a few questions before, did you ever answer them?
@tom
I was triggered by him saying I'm playing poorly, you can ignore it
tom if you actually have a day vig please shoot me so i can go yell at proph about putting a day vig in his game.
also you and a couple of other people have made comments on my posts being awful. given that i posted... twice? maybe three times? i’m curious as to how you could draw such a strong conclusion.
i think i already asked axelrod this question.
to help me get into the game faster, anybody have anything they’d like me to read + give opinions on? people/game events etc.
It's hard looking back to see/remember how fast the posts were coming, but there was a long period after Az claimed where there was no movement on any wagons. We were sitting there. Some of us had unanswered questions for Az, but there wasn't really any push anywhere else. Didn't seem like anyone's opinions had changed much. Looked like Az lynch was going to happen.
Az started doing his longer posts looking at people and giving more opinions, and I'm sure that helped some people decide to come off of him later. He asked for an extension.
The first vote for Fuwa came @1086 from Grapefruit. For basically the reason that he did not want to lynch the claimed Cop shot. This is something he had previously stated, so, nothing really new. He's also adamantly against a deadline extension, however, and in hindsight that's fairly Townie. Given that he has stated he doesn't want Az lynched, were he scumbuddies, one would think he might have supported an extension request - frankly, even if he's Town I would have thought he might have supported this if he didn't want Az lynched - but he did not.
I posted and I did support the deadline extension request *unpats self*
In my defense, Az had started making longer, more analytical posts on all the players and I thought that was a good thing, regardless of his alignment. Whichever way he flipped, it would give us more to work with.
Chris voted for Tom. Possibly trying to get an alternate wagon moving. There were a few people who had indicated support in that direction.
Ah, then Fuwa showed up. This is what started it. She made a few posts that indicated she had been busy and hadn't had time to catch up, and then the remark that apparently sets herself on fire when she responded to an accusation of her possibly being "inexperienced scum" and said she wasn't, she was just busy.
Chris pounces immediately. Votes Fuwa in #1118. Two reasons given (1) Doesn't like Fuwa supporting a deadline extension request while at the same time saying she will only be around for a little bit. (2) Responding to the accusation of being inexperienced scum when "no one accused you of being scum." I think both of these points might be invalid, in as much as Fuwa was saying she wasn't going to be around for long now, but if there was an extension, that would give her time to catch up and make a more intelligent vote later as opposed to just "sheeping" someone. This doesn't seem unreasonable to me. And the second point was just wrong in as much as I think someone (Azrael?) did suggest that Fuwa might be inexperienced scum at one point.
Shadow joins the Fuwa wagon at #1124, and I think this probably officially makes it "a thing." He doesn't say why except that he was "down" to explore that avenue at present. Perhaps consistent with his waffling on Az a bit. We have ~12 hours left until the deadline at this point.
I'm obviously not a fan of this movement. In general I dislike last minute CFDs (unless I'm pushing one of course, but that would only be if I really, really thought the person was scum, or was really really convinced we were about to mislynch. Not just to "see what happens" with 12 hours until deadline. That's irresponsible to me.)
Shadow petitions for more Fuwa votes in #1130. This could just be a differing philosophy at work here, but yeah, not a fan. He explains his reasoning a little better in #1135 Then says:
Tom joins the Fuwa wagon in #1146 with a "lol" and :popcorneating. Then elaborates he's "More or less happy with these wagons" and "Dont think theyre more likely scum than az, but definitely >rand after that popin and its the best counterwagon weve had." You may imagine how unimpressed I am with this.
Ugh. Cantrip vehemently argues against the Fuwa wagon in #1138, #1147 and #1157. Then votes Fuwa in #1162. He acts like he's been bullied into it by a combination of Chris/Tom/Shadow and says "You can't all be scum!" Does say that he would happily go back to Az, but the switch is still bad. Since when do you get bullied, Cantrip? This ties the vote count, I believe, at 5-5.
Cantrip then elaborates on his vote in #1165, but it does seem like he put the cart before the horse a bit. Almost as though he knew his flip-flop looked bad and was trying to justify it after the fact. That is something he could do as Town as well though.
Then KCC of all people switches to Fuwa in #1168 with a :shrug. KCC had expressed some concerns about Fuwa before, but had always said Az first. I am presuming this was for the "just push this to see where it goes" reasoning, and not because it suddenly looked so much better.
Vez votes Fuwa in #1183. He also requests deadline extension because he won't be around and he really doesn't want to lynch Fuwa. This is consistent with him needing to be on lynches as Fuwa is now the leading wagon and we are close to deadline. Now it's 7-3.
That's peak Fuwa wagon. I come back and opine that I think this wagon is stupid. But that doesn't actually move the dial for anyone as far as I can see. It's KCC switching the vote back to Az in #1200 that begins the comeback - though LW still votes for Fuwa first. And then I think Shadow switches back as I discussed previously.
Given we don't actually know Fuwa's alignment it's hard to make a firm conclusion about any of this. If I assume Fuwa is Town though, the worst looking votes were: Chris, Tom, Cantrip, Last Whisper.
I excuse GF for starting it and being very explicit it was because he just didn't want to lynch a claimed Cop Shot - but then not wishing for an extension at a point when it still looked like Az was the lynch. Shadow was also fairly explicit he just wanted to see a counterwagon in action and (apparently) felt like there was plenty of time to explore this before deadline. Shadow later redeems himself going back to Az. KCC I already said is Town or one of the most epic of bussers. And Vez is also very likely Town already for reasons not even having to do with this, but his vote is still consistent.
What do you mean?
(1) Did you have this day-vig on D1 and choose not to use/say anything about it, or did it not come "online" as it were until today?
(2) Can this be a Night-Vig or is it Day only?
(3) Is it use now or lose it, or can you save for later?
That was a small part of it.
If it is Chris/Az, I'm guessing they came into the game feeling pretty invincible. Like, no way either ever gets lynched D1, so why play cautiously?
Seriously? I included that option because it sounded like what you might be claiming, but I wasn't actually expecting it.
Alright, since Tom is considering you as a target, I think I'd like to hear what you chose to do and more importantly, why you chose that.
I still think Chris is the best choice here. Not only because I think it's a high probability shot, but it also should be the most informative flip.
Also, it will save me the trouble of trying to lynch him, which is almost certainly what I'll be doing the rest of the Day if he's alive.
More or less. I was planning to move back to Az unless fuwa completely imploded. We obviously weren't lynching Az until much closer to the deadline, so it was something to do in the meantime.
Not sure if I want to answer that first question.
Not sure yet. I'm having a lot more likes than dislikes now. Even Chris starts to sound good to me.
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My actual read will come near/on weekends. I'm on nanny duty for a few kids 24/7 and I've severely underestimated how much work that would be. Pretty much only posting when they're sleeping / distracted. Should be getting my break this weekend.
But since two other people asked me, I might not be thinking at the right direction. And I think KCC is confirmed town to me.
I will get back to you once I decided on what to do. Until then, I can only hope tom doesn't shoot me.
What would you say the chances are that scum!you decides to make an RVS joke about shooting decks your buddies have as an early distancing effort you could point back to?
It says something, I think, that this actually makes you feel more scummy, not less, imo. I think town!Tom is more likely to just take the shot and ride out the backlash/bask in accolades. That said, I nodded along with a lot of your catch-up, so I'm not really feeling scum!you overall. If you're scum and just playing me, good job, I guess.
Yeah, last night I was like, wait, did I just ask Wisp of all people why he wasn't consistent in his opinion? You'd think I'd have learned from Phantom.
But this. This should be answerable. You went out of your way to separate him from EVERYONE else.
Why "have to kill him" at that point in the Day when KCC was the 3rd vote on a wagon that wasn't guaranteed to lead to a claim much less a lunch? That question isn't really the question I want to ask, but I can't verbalize what pings me about this response. Talk to me about this.
This mildly pings of theatre.
Axel, ftr, this sums up my reasoning behind my move to Fuwa:
Me throwing my hands up was me deciding that it was unlikely that I was right about everyone that was on Fuwa was scum, and deciding to see what a Fuwa wagon resulted in.
Elaborating in 1165 was because I decided it would be better to be open about my reasons rather than just vaguely alluding to them in 1157 (one of which I almost got really stuck on, hence the question to Fuwa in 1139).
Fuwa, you never answered this:
And to add on to that, is it you+someone else, or can you neighborize two other people?
lmao, I'm not going to make up some deep reason, I have literally no idea what I was thinking back then
best guess is I thought he was townie, but not as townie as those above him?
also,
Tom's wagonomic analysis is pretty much what I'd expect from town!tom, so he still is in my town leans, next to KCC/Vezok
/barn Cantrip's response to Sir Chris in the above post
are there more people voting Chris yet?
plus I still would like more content from Meg anyways
@tom: Can I persuade you to move dkings down and KJ up and consider him a good vig target?
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Should there be? -Convince me
also, there really isn't a reason not to?
Im still not wrong, and I'm not talking about his overall content with that post, because they vary between really good and really bad
I stand by opinion
Also, megs coming in and causually talking about how a daykill would be something he could just blame of proph is completely underwhelming.
Of course shooting later is better than early, you have more information. In a game like this it is likely power will catch scum and if you don't reveal your shot day 2 you can shoot for sure scum on a later day or keep it in your pocket for when reads crystalize. Shooting later is so much better later that is disgusts me tht it is seen as "dumb" for me to believe otherwise. Having more information to aim at someone makes total sense.
As for your Vezok comment, Tom, it is something I would expect you to realize before going HAMMER TIME and not doing it. As town you actually care about it, as scum you fake that sentiment.
One thing I will say is if you shoot dkings and he flips scum I will have my suspicion of you vanish, because he has said a few things that have bothered me (especially as it relates to the viability of a fuwa shot but also how he seems to live in a 'assume fuwa is town world' for his reads on other people) so I will be interested to see if perhaps this is a giant misunderstanding.
Cantripmancer - I guess if you want to think I'd use that tactic to make people less interested in voting for him I'd do that. Honestly as his scum buddy at that point I might just claim masons with him or something if I am going to go through all of that trouble. I seek conflict in mafia, Az train was boring and if he was scum I thought to myself he isn't a threat and I always lean towards bad play being town until proven otherwise. I guess what is the problem here is people aren't understanding my mindset. To me, just like last game, it is harmless to rail against bad scum play because they die anyway. So I learn things about other people along the way. It is a reason why "fuwa is a good shot" pings me from dkings is because I felt that was one of the better pieces of information we learned by me being stubborn against Az. I have a good faith belief that me being against the Az lynch was better for town in the long run than me being for it. All I care about is town's success, even if I apparently look like a horrible player in the process. My WIM may drained, but I still care about town.
Grapefruit - My read on you is "Az probably didn't instantly call his buddy super town." I didn't like some interactions with rhand day one but Az's play being not so great indicates that read on you makes you town until further notice.
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