I'm still confident that Az doesn't try to town clear a buddy grape in those circumstances.
Why not?
The point of that post was to mimic his in depth analysis, which is easy to do when you know someone is town.
If grape was under more pressure, or if it wasn't worded as confidently, then maybe. But I just don't think Az is capable of making that post knowing grape is scum.
The timing (very early game, before Grape had much pressure) is actually part of why I'm questioning. I wouldn't put it past Az to champion a buddy and shut down attacks against Grape, never dreaming that he himself would ever even flip, much less end up being the lunch for the Day. Not damning for Grape, but I don't feel like it clears him as much as you think it does.
It's been a long time since you last played; why do you think I know you well?
Yes, that, but also, you were the only one who realized who I was pregame. I know you can't quite clear me, but I figure this might help a little.
And other than fuwa and grape, I'm pretty comfortable with your list
What if I told you that one of the big reasons I think you suspect Fuwa could mirror a reason that *I* could suspect Fuwa, which is also a reason I *did* suspect Az, but I still don't think Fuwa is scum? If that is a reason for you, I can understand where your suspicion comes from, but that's lessened for me because of the type of game this is/nature of claimed roles. And especially from Az's claim (which I think was mostly true, but sweetened with a cop check) and his role title, I think it REALLY unlikely that with both of them being wagoned, the lunch ends up on Az over Fuwa. Az's reputation is not something that can be dismissed, and his role sounds like it would have been powerful had it come to fruition. It's possible that Fuwa is scum, but I think it's highly unlikely.
Vaimes, a lot of similarities, yes, but seeing as how that circle pretty strongly matches the EoD votecount, and I seriously doubt the entirety of the scum team was on Fuwa/Shadow, I suspect I'm wrong about at least one of my town reads.
I don’t know why Azrael would choose Grape to try and prop up, no offense to him. My impression is that Grape rarely endgames.
He can correct me tho.
You're saying that Az wouldn't have townfirmed buddy!Grape because Grape was unlikely to endgame, thus proving Az's read to be wrong? Is Az that prideful that he would want to avoid appearing wrong even on a fabricated read?
Not that I feel this should be a sticking point, to be frank. It's wifom, and I'm certainly not pushing for Grape's lunch because of it. I just don't think Grape can be cleared for it, either.
I think it REALLY unlikely that with both of them being wagoned, the lunch ends up on Az over Fuwa. Az's reputation is not something that can be dismissed, and his role sounds like it would have been powerful had it come to fruition.
I don't think the scumteam really picked there. And I think fuwa was being really honest about her vote being strictly self preservation.
As for the other fuwa reasoning, that's a consideration, but it's very low on my list where it isn't even worth mentioning.
a lot of similarities, yes, but seeing as how that circle pretty strongly matches the EoD votecount,
My reads aren't based at all on wagon analysis, or the final vote count. The fact that those methods lineup so well with what I had already, I feel is a really good sign.
Is Az that prideful that he would want to avoid appearing wrong even on a fabricated read?
I think he kinda is. If grape was a buddy, I think the wording in that post is significantly softened. I can't see Az doing such a thorough read, that intentionally wrong.
Sorry for being so lackluster in the latter half of yesterday. I'm worse at multitasking than I wanted to believe. Anyway it's time to completely reevaluate. I was deep in a tunnel on DK, tom, and Shadow and I'm pretty sure that makes no sense as a team anymore.
And then if hypothetical scum-KCC did move off Az and onto Fuwa, seeing that Fuwa was about to get lynched, it seems like it would have been much, much easier and better for scum to just let that happen. Rather than turn and lead the charge to re-bus Az all over again. I mean, it's theoretically possible - KCC could have been gambling that there wasn't enough time for more votes to shift back to Az - but just not at all likely. Even if Fuwa were scum, one would assume that scum would rather have had Fuwa lynched in that spot over Az, and if KCC was already voting Fuwa and would have then got the "credit" for being on a correct lynch, it just seems less and less plausible that KCC can be scum.
I'm pretty much in agreement with all of this.
Also, regarding the bolded sentence, the fact that we have plurality lynch makes it even less likely that scum would take that gamble.
This seems right. KCC was already super townie before Az's flip but his spot on the VC is really good. Fuwa is probably also clear for that formation. It's possible that was a CFD onto scum and back again but seems incredibly unlikely to me.
Maybe not “rarely endgames,” but he tends to be a popular shrug lynch since lately he’s been widely scumread more as town.
I can't remember the last time I end gamed. I think it might be tokens which was a loooong time ago. Actually it was probably that tinyhunt game on DLP. This was a depressing exercise...
INTERESTING choice on Proph’s part that you’re not listed twice in the votecount, or that the total number of abstaining votes isn’t the living players +1.
you're the only guy on the entire internet who could drag me out of mafia retirement, just so you know that.
MEG STATUS: i have been reading this game at work and gym today, I'm through page 10 or so. based on that much of the game, i have KCC + cantrip as scum with vaimes, axelrod, whisper, grapefruit as town
slapping out a vote kcc
work is mega slow for me these days and mtgs mobile posting is actually not the worst so I should be reasonably active
more later, will continue reading while following the active game. ask me questions if you want.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
Are you reading D1 with knowledge of the lynch? Or are you doing this blind? Because the latter seems a bad way to do it, but I do not understand your reads if it's the former.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Are you reading D1 with knowledge of the lynch? Or are you doing this blind? Because the latter seems a bad way to do it, but I do not understand your reads if it's the former.
good question -- going in I knew the lynch and NK.
which reads don't you understand?
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
@Vaimes: I’d entertain a KCC tin foil if she is alive much much later, but I don’t think it’s worthwhile currently. I can grok your feelings about the bus potential though.
LW’s post about Az acting like a villager does come off as TMI.
KCC also had a post that looks really cheeky and TMI, but it can be shelved for now.
explain this to me with small words, while I take a look at everything I missed while on vacation
also I think was DK, maybe not, I only caught a glimpse of a few posts, and remember even less
anyways someone said, "the v/la's contain 1-2 wolves possibly"
and Im probably tunneling that person for the rest of the game till they are lynched, so I have no time for statements like that, and its also one of the wolfiest statements all game imo
Last Whisper votes for Fuwa in #1217. And in hindsight this is a really bad vote. He makes the really weird remark that "Azreal did exactly what he needed to do as either a wolf or villager" - i.e. we shouldn't lynch him because of his string of analysis posts - even though he stopped doing them as soon as he got out of range. Says there's plenty of time to evaluate Az later, and even opines that it's 99% likely Az flips Town anyway.
So, yeah, bad vote.
ya I was wrong, and since we dont know Fuwa's alignment, you cant decide the vote is bad
I stand by all my statements in that quote, except for the last one kek, sue me
I also standby the statement im about to make, don't care that he flipped wolf, idk how the **** that lynched happened, especially not without a buss, probably even more than 1
@Tom
shoot Shadow plz, he got the benefit of the top post day 1, and this micro read trumps everything he's done on a macro level, ill will eat a sock if he's town after making that *****ty post
Grape is town
Vaimes is town
Kcc is town
ill work out everyone else at one point
gunna go back to reading, also good luck lynching me, I am unlynchable
@Meg Ill accept your town read
on a side note, your scum leans are horrendously bad outside maybe Cantrip, you are lucky you replaced Beeboy
speaking of which, Vaimes unless he evolved tremendously from his previous 3 scum games, definitely not wolf here based on meta, I forgot to add that to my town list above, so thanks for reminding me
@Last: walk me through this. How is this post bad enough that it negates and entire town read day one? Do you know the possible purposes of such a post even?
“you don’t know Fuwa’s alignment so you can’t prove it was a bad vote” had the potential to be a villagery statement if it was followed by “Axel knows Fuwa’s alignment, so he’s scum” or something similar.
But I don’t think it would occur to scum!LW to think that far. As is, it just reads as panicky.
“you don’t know Fuwa’s alignment so you can’t prove it was a bad vote” had the potential to be a villagery statement if it was followed by “Axel knows Fuwa’s alignment, so he’s scum” or something similar.
But I don’t think it would occur to scum!LW to think that far. As is, it just reads as panicky.
Are you reading D1 with knowledge of the lynch? Or are you doing this blind? Because the latter seems a bad way to do it, but I do not understand your reads if it's the former.
also I think was DK, maybe not, I only caught a glimpse of a few posts, and remember even less
anyways someone said, "the v/la's contain 1-2 wolves possibly"
I kinda agree with that though.
-Not that bring vla is scummy, but just statistically, with how many were away, there's a good chance of scum in there. Plus the way D1 went, it really didn't feel like all the scum were active.
@Tom
shoot Shadow plz, he got the benefit of the top post day 1, and this micro read trumps everything he's done on a macro level, ill will eat a sock if he's town after making that *****ty post
Grape is town
Vaimes is town
Kcc is town
ill work out everyone else at one point
gunna go back to reading, also good luck lynching me, I am unlynchable
Shadow is still town. Also, is this a claim? Because we need to check that
nah thats not how I think, regardless of my alignment, and Im also way past the world of FoSing people just because they FoS me
I'm not panicked, exactly why would I panick?
Are you reading D1 with knowledge of the lynch? Or are you doing this blind? Because the latter seems a bad way to do it, but I do not understand your reads if it's the former.
also I think was DK, maybe not, I only caught a glimpse of a few posts, and remember even less
anyways someone said, "the v/la's contain 1-2 wolves possibly"
I kinda agree with that though.
-Not that bring vla is scummy, but just statistically, with how many were away, there's a good chance of scum in there. Plus the way D1 went, it really didn't feel like all the scum were active.
@Tom
shoot Shadow plz, he got the benefit of the top post day 1, and this micro read trumps everything he's done on a macro level, ill will eat a sock if he's town after making that *****ty post
Grape is town
Vaimes is town
Kcc is town
ill work out everyone else at one point
gunna go back to reading, also good luck lynching me, I am unlynchable
Shadow is still town. Also, is this a claim? Because we need to check that
Unvote Vote Lastwhisper
I dont see the connection between your post and this vote, but cool
Why exactly is shadow town, and what claim?
But it’s completely wrong, and you know that. Of course votes can be bad without knowing the target’s alignment. The way you handwaved Axel there looks bad because 1) it’s blatantly wrong, and 2) you didn’t make the logical towny jump to “does Axel know Fuwa’s alignment and is he using it to shade me?@
But it’s completely wrong, and you know that. Of course votes can be bad without knowing the target’s alignment. The way you handwaved Axel there looks bad because 1) it’s blatantly wrong, and 2) you didn’t make the logical towny jump to “does Axel know Fuwa’s alignment and is he using it to shade me?@
I didnt even look at who made that post, I just noticed it while skimming the posts that came while I was driving home from montreal
Why am I being attacked for this? for not wolf-reading someone for a reason y'all think I should be wolf reading him for? kek
Actually, I think he’s saying the vote is bad because it was moving OFF of Azrael, and has nothing to do with Fuwa.
So based on the information that villagers have (that Azrael was scum), it was a bad vote.
doubtful since my vote wasnt on Azreal at the time, I unvoted, from what I saw while skimming which was probably only an hour a day, I choose to vote Fuwa rather than Azreal, I was never voting Azreal there, I felt like all his posts were just getting hand-waved
"ohh Vezok cc'd" lynch him anyways
ya no thanks
in easter-egg mafia on my site, we lynched a lurking scum day 1 off literally nothing, and I still think the lynch was *****, and should have nevered happened
You have a weird attitude towards scum getting lynched. You sound almost bitter, which is not really the way you want to sound unless you’re on the mafia team.
I am pretty hyped tbh. I came out with a lot of town reads for a reason. We'll be fine.
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Your only major contribution Day 1 was trying to divert a scum lynch. That is why you are being attacked.
??????????????
How the hell is that a serious read, I was busy, why not just buss him?
Idk how the way I handled Azreal, or the way he handled me, equates to us being w/w, it literally baffles me that you think this, or that anyone thinks this
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StaffI like your logic, though.
What if I told you that one of the big reasons I think you suspect Fuwa could mirror a reason that *I* could suspect Fuwa, which is also a reason I *did* suspect Az, but I still don't think Fuwa is scum? If that is a reason for you, I can understand where your suspicion comes from, but that's lessened for me because of the type of game this is/nature of claimed roles. And especially from Az's claim (which I think was mostly true, but sweetened with a cop check) and his role title, I think it REALLY unlikely that with both of them being wagoned, the lunch ends up on Az over Fuwa. Az's reputation is not something that can be dismissed, and his role sounds like it would have been powerful had it come to fruition. It's possible that Fuwa is scum, but I think it's highly unlikely.
Vaimes, a lot of similarities, yes, but seeing as how that circle pretty strongly matches the EoD votecount, and I seriously doubt the entirety of the scum team was on Fuwa/Shadow, I suspect I'm wrong about at least one of my town reads.
He can correct me tho.
Not that I feel this should be a sticking point, to be frank. It's wifom, and I'm certainly not pushing for Grape's lunch because of it. I just don't think Grape can be cleared for it, either.
I don't think the scumteam really picked there. And I think fuwa was being really honest about her vote being strictly self preservation.
As for the other fuwa reasoning, that's a consideration, but it's very low on my list where it isn't even worth mentioning.
My reads aren't based at all on wagon analysis, or the final vote count. The fact that those methods lineup so well with what I had already, I feel is a really good sign.
I think he kinda is. If grape was a buddy, I think the wording in that post is significantly softened. I can't see Az doing such a thorough read, that intentionally wrong.
Also I have two votes this phase! Thanks Rhand!
This seems right. KCC was already super townie before Az's flip but his spot on the VC is really good. Fuwa is probably also clear for that formation. It's possible that was a CFD onto scum and back again but seems incredibly unlikely to me.
I can't remember the last time I end gamed. I think it might be tokens which was a loooong time ago. Actually it was probably that tinyhunt game on DLP. This was a depressing exercise...
INTERESTING choice on Proph’s part that you’re not listed twice in the votecount, or that the total number of abstaining votes isn’t the living players +1.
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Curse PremiumPlease do not mention anything about the circumstances of this replacement.
MEG STATUS: i have been reading this game at work and gym today, I'm through page 10 or so. based on that much of the game, i have KCC + cantrip as scum with vaimes, axelrod, whisper, grapefruit as town
slapping out a
vote kcc
work is mega slow for me these days and mtgs mobile posting is actually not the worst so I should be reasonably active
more later, will continue reading while following the active game. ask me questions if you want.
Please, share.
short version is opportunism.
good question -- going in I knew the lynch and NK.
which reads don't you understand?
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StaffAlready don’t like him.
@Vaimes: I’d entertain a KCC tin foil if she is alive much much later, but I don’t think it’s worthwhile currently. I can grok your feelings about the bus potential though.
also I think was DK, maybe not, I only caught a glimpse of a few posts, and remember even less
anyways someone said, "the v/la's contain 1-2 wolves possibly"
and Im probably tunneling that person for the rest of the game till they are lynched, so I have no time for statements like that, and its also one of the wolfiest statements all game imo
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StaffVote lastwhisper
ya I was wrong, and since we dont know Fuwa's alignment, you cant decide the vote is bad
I stand by all my statements in that quote, except for the last one kek, sue me
I also standby the statement im about to make, don't care that he flipped wolf, idk how the **** that lynched happened, especially not without a buss, probably even more than 1
vote: Shadow
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Staffshoot Shadow plz, he got the benefit of the top post day 1, and this micro read trumps everything he's done on a macro level, ill will eat a sock if he's town after making that *****ty post
Grape is town
Vaimes is town
Kcc is town
ill work out everyone else at one point
gunna go back to reading, also good luck lynching me, I am unlynchable
Ill accept your town readon a side note, your scum leans are horrendously bad outside maybe Cantrip, you are lucky you replaced Beeboy
speaking of which, Vaimes unless he evolved tremendously from his previous 3 scum games, definitely not wolf here based on meta, I forgot to add that to my town list above, so thanks for reminding me
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StaffAlso, why is Grape town?
But I don’t think it would occur to scum!LW to think that far. As is, it just reads as panicky.
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StaffHe said he was only at page 10
I kinda agree with that though.
-Not that bring vla is scummy, but just statistically, with how many were away, there's a good chance of scum in there. Plus the way D1 went, it really didn't feel like all the scum were active.
Shadow is still town. Also, is this a claim? Because we need to check that
Unvote Vote Lastwhisper
I'm not panicked, exactly why would I panick?
also I said "We" not "You", we as in I included
Why exactly is shadow town, and what claim?
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StaffYou’ll be lynched before me though
*doubt*
and I didn't even notice it, Grape is still town because Azreal doesn't make that read on a partner, I am standing by that read
So based on the information that villagers have (that Azrael was scum), it was a bad vote.
Why am I being attacked for this? for not wolf-reading someone for a reason y'all think I should be wolf reading him for? kek
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StaffAlso, I’m not the lynch today either, promise
"ohh Vezok cc'd" lynch him anyways
ya no thanks
in easter-egg mafia on my site, we lynched a lurking scum day 1 off literally nothing, and I still think the lynch was *****, and should have nevered happened
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StaffHis posts were getting handwaved because he was incredibly scummy. That is a perfectly reasonable thing to happen in mafia.
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StaffLast’s death would be a wonderful early Christmas present.
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How the hell is that a serious read, I was busy, why not just buss him?
Idk how the way I handled Azreal, or the way he handled me, equates to us being w/w, it literally baffles me that you think this, or that anyone thinks this
I keeping my vote where it is
Who’s tom shooting?
Unvote
And shadow is town because the whole game