From what I remember KCC pressed for Azreal the most, I'm not going to look at him again for at least a couple more days, WHICH requires him to not eat the mafia night KP by then
Yeah, but I kept getting really weird vibes from her posts about Az. Like she decided early on that he was a lost cause and her later posting towards/about him reflected that*. And I don't like her push on Sir Chris, as much fun as it is when Chris has a giant rotten egg on his face.
*This is largely feels-based and not something I'm going to push until I read some more and decide where I want to go with it.
From what I remember KCC pressed for Azreal the most, I'm not going to look at him again for at least a couple more days, WHICH requires him to not eat the mafia night KP by then
She did, but 1) bussing exists, and 2) I also think she was wielding the Az scumread as a weapon. It's kind of hard to describe, and why I'm mostly just broaching the topic rather than insisting everyone drop what they're doing and chase after this lead.
The other people pushing Az (me, Rhand, uhh Axel? anyone else chime in if I'm forgetting you) were strictly focused on explaining why Az was scum, analyzing his claim and behavior, things like that.
I also think her initial vote on Azrael (where she was like "no, I don't want to vote Az, VOTE AZ") and her jump to and from Fuwa were weird if she's town. Her being so confident in the Azrael push makes her Fuwa vote worse.
I'm town, Rhand was town, I think dk is town, Axel and Fuwa are both probably town, shadow is ehhh a Difficult One now that I'm trying to force myself to state something absolute about him, Cantrip is ???, and Killjoy is kind of town. Mostly because "I don't want to vote Azrael because our reads match" is uh. An interesting post to make as your buddy is about to die.
KCC just kinda sticks out to me here, more than anyone else on the wagon.
I'm also willing to lynch Sir Chris. That part where he knew az was lying about the claim is still really really scummy especially now that Az flipped scum. Killjoy is still scum from yesterday and was also put as "strong town" on dead's scum list.
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I would like you to describe how it was really, really scummy.
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I would like you to describe how it was really, really scummy.
You insisted that dead scum had more to say about his role and he confirmed that in thread to you. It's so scummy that it passes through the "too scummy to be scum" zone and right into this person is 100% scum and nothing anyone says will convince me otherwise.
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I don't understand why you feel that way. Sure I have zany moments but by interacting with Az I got a lot of reads about others once he flipped. Why is me saying that scummy? What is the implication?
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wasn’t it you who said to me yesterday “there’s no way Grape is with Az” or was that someone else?
I know I said that, I think someone else did as well (I want to say axel?), and I'm still confident that Az doesn't try to town clear a buddy grape in those circumstances.
Role seems pretty straightforward, and given that she's unlikely to be on Azrael's team, I don't think it's worth pressing her.
If both wagons were scum, the scumteam prioritizes saving Azrael 99% of the time. Possible that Fuwa is lying about her role, but claiming JOAT after Azrael AND vezok seems too weird for scum.
It would be an odd strategic choice. But I have a feeling it was less a choice and more a horrible accident.
Her being so confident in the Azrael push makes her Fuwa vote worse.
Could just be me that feels that way.
I was definitely more confident in my Az read, but I think fuwa is scum too, and did not mind squeezing that push in. And I was confident I could kick momentum back towards Az before the deadline.
A Fuwa shot would be solid. She had two separate D1 wagons, so it's fairly likely she's going to get lynched sooner rather than later anyway. Her claim was vague and incomplete, and knowing her alignment would go a long way in analyzing how the end-of-day activity played out.
As far as I'm concerned vezok is confirmed town. I have very strong town reads on Shadow, Vaimes and KCC. Vaimes's points about KCC potentially being deep scum are reasonable, but there is no real reason to consider that possibility yet.
I really liked Axelrod's late-day posts yesterday. Tom is on hold with this daykill claim.
A Cantrip re-read might be in order. Anyone who supported Azrael's request for an extension gets scum points from me, and I believe Cantrip was on that short list.
I'm sort of looking at this in reverse order, but it's simpler that way. This analysis also more or less assumes that Fuwa is Town, which I know a lot of people are not assuming.
Vote Count 1.28
Fuwa (7): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, shadowlancerx, tomsloger, Cantripmancer, KittyCupCake, vezokpiraka
Azrael (3): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967
shadowlancerx (2): killjoy, beeboy
Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
Vaimes (1): Azrael
tomsloger (1): Axelrod
Abstain (1): Lastwhisper
This was the maximum shift point after the votes had swung (very quickly) from Az to Fuwa. That's a whole separate thing to look at to how that happened, but for now, this was the vote total. This was getting very close to the deadline, I believe. I think we were less than 24 hours. At this point, Az looked safe and Fuwa looked like a goner. Post #1190 for reference.
KCC is the one who starts the shift back to Az. That's post #1200. Considering KCC was on Fuwa that represented a 2-vote swing, and suddenly made Az viable again. If this was some kind of bus, then it was a huge and epic bus - especially considering it was Az we are talking about and his unknown but presumably powerful role. Scum simply would not have wanted him to get lynched in that spot, at that time. Period. You might argue that KCC was just trying to be consistent, having been on Az's case for most of the day, but the shift off Az onto Fuwa wouldn't have been consistent with that. in fact, it would have been actively detrimental to hypothetical scum-KCC's epic bussing efforts.
And then if hypothetical scum-KCC did move off Az and onto Fuwa, seeing that Fuwa was about to get lynched, it seems like it would have been much, much easier and better for scum to just let that happen. Rather than turn and lead the charge to re-bus Az all over again. I mean, it's theoretically possible - KCC could have been gambling that there wasn't enough time for more votes to shift back to Az - but just not at all likely. Even if Fuwa were scum, one would assume that scum would rather have had Fuwa lynched in that spot over Az, and if KCC was already voting Fuwa and would have then got the "credit" for being on a correct lynch, it just seems less and less plausible that KCC can be scum.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
My vote came at #1203. You can believe it or not but I hadn't actually seen KCC's vote when I made mine. And I didn't think my vote was going to do any good. It was almost a protest vote as much as anything else. I thought the way the votes had moved from Az to Fuwa was terrible, and the way that Az - who probably thought himself not in danger anymore - had stopped his "player analysis" posting, was really bad.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
And then if hypothetical scum-KCC did move off Az and onto Fuwa, seeing that Fuwa was about to get lynched, it seems like it would have been much, much easier and better for scum to just let that happen. Rather than turn and lead the charge to re-bus Az all over again. I mean, it's theoretically possible - KCC could have been gambling that there wasn't enough time for more votes to shift back to Az - but just not at all likely. Even if Fuwa were scum, one would assume that scum would rather have had Fuwa lynched in that spot over Az, and if KCC was already voting Fuwa and would have then got the "credit" for being on a correct lynch, it just seems less and less plausible that KCC can be scum.
I'm pretty much in agreement with all of this.
Also, regarding the bolded sentence, the fact that we have plurality lynch makes it even less likely that scum would take that gamble.
Last Whisper votes for Fuwa in #1217. And in hindsight this is a really bad vote. He makes the really weird remark that "Azreal did exactly what he needed to do as either a wolf or villager" - i.e. we shouldn't lynch him because of his string of analysis posts - even though he stopped doing them as soon as he got out of range. Says there's plenty of time to evaluate Az later, and even opines that it's 99% likely Az flips Town anyway.
So, yeah, bad vote.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Dk why do you think fuwa is a good shot but think it would be risky to move from fuwa to Az for scum kcc?
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I just looked back over the end-of-day posts regarding the deadline extension.
Pro: Killjoy, Axelrod, Fuwa. Cantrip also said he would support an extension, but only if people wanted to switch off from lynching Azrael to lynching Tom, and vezok voted for it very late for the expressed reason that he didn't want to lynch Fuwa.
Anti: KCC, Shadow, Rhand, Grape, Vaimes
Made no comment: Tom, Chris, LW. Also beeboy, but he hasn't posted since the 14th.
Dk why do you think fuwa is a good shot but think it would be risky to move from fuwa to Az for scum kcc?
I've already stated why I think Fuwa is a good shot.
Axelrod made a very good point. In a world where Fuwa is town and KCC is scum, why would KCC try to sway momentum back to her buddy when Fuwa was at L-2? Add in the fact that Azrael didn't actually have to get to 9 votes to potentially be lynched and it's even more risky.
In a world where both Fuwa and KCC are scum, I don't think it makes sense either, but that's more based on a hunch that Azrael likely had a very strong role. Weak abilities generally don't require jumping through hoops to unlock them.
Dk why do you think fuwa is a good shot but think it would be risky to move from fuwa to Az for scum kcc?
I've already stated why I think Fuwa is a good shot.
Axelrod made a very good point. In a world where Fuwa is town and KCC is scum, why would KCC try to sway momentum back to her buddy when Fuwa was at L-2? Add in the fact that Azrael didn't actually have to get to 9 votes to potentially be lynched and it's even more risky.
In a world where both Fuwa and KCC are scum, I don't think it makes sense either, but that's more based on a hunch that Azrael likely had a very strong role. Weak abilities generally don't require jumping through hoops to unlock them.
Hmm. I dont think fuwa is a good shot.
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Killjoy and Grapefruit posted. Killjoy waffled and said he didn't like either option. GF liked the shift to Az. That's mostly NAL stuff for me.
I was staying up until midnight to see what happened under the mistaken belief that the day ended at midnight e.s.t. When we went past midnight and Proph did not appear I was annoyed, but still stayed up. Then Proph posted the updated votecount at something like 12:30-12:45 a.m.
Vote Count 1.29
Fuwa (7): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, shadowlancerx, tomsloger, Cantripmancer, vezokpiraka, Lastwhisper
Azrael (5): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967, KittyCupCake, Azelrod,
shadowlancerx (2): killjoy, beeboy
Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
Vaimes (1): Azrael
Abstain (0):
With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch.
When I realized it was still going to be 2 more hours. I went to bed. Fuwa had still not claimed anything at that point.
Of course, Fuwa appeared shortly after and made his claim in #132. 1-shot JOAT. Votes for Azrael in the same post.
It's interesting to contemplate this from a "what if they are both scum" viewpoint. I feel like scum-Fuwa could easily make that vote in that spot, might even have felt obligated to do so. But it still seems likely that the scum - if forced to pick between Az and Fuwa - would have preferred Az live, no disrespect intended to Fuwa. And it would have been very easy for Fuwa to take a dive here, or just not vote Az to increase the likelyhood of his own lynch.
Looking back, Fuwa didn't have much at all to say about Az prior to the "self-preservation" vote. Most might have been this:
I like Azrael's posts, but others made pretty convincing points against him too... so I'm just gonna observe how his train goes. I don't feel like joining it, nor am I against it.
AZ didn't have anything to say about Fuwa either, until he got under pressure and started doing player reviews "from the lowest poster up." That means you probably can't attach any significant meaning to the fact that Az started with Fuwa. His "read" however, was very inconclusive.
So, I can't say the scum-buddy theory is disproven from any of this. It still just seems less likely to me though.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I don't understand why you feel that way. Sure I have zany moments but by interacting with Az I got a lot of reads about others once he flipped. Why is me saying that scummy? What is the implication?
As far as I'm concerned vezok is confirmed town. I have very strong town reads on Shadow, Vaimes and KCC. Vaimes's points about KCC potentially being deep scum are reasonable, but there is no real reason to consider that possibility yet.
I really liked Axelrod's late-day posts yesterday. Tom is on hold with this daykill claim.
A Cantrip re-read might be in order. Anyone who supported Azrael's request for an extension gets scum points from me, and I believe Cantrip was on that short list.
I don't understand why you feel that way. Sure I have zany moments but by interacting with Az I got a lot of reads about others once he flipped. Why is me saying that scummy? What is the implication?
That was one of the most fake, plastic exchanges I've ever seen.
If you were actually testing him, you don't announce "Hey, this is s test!" And you certainly don't try to clear him when he responds in the exact way you said he should.
Well, unless you're scum, then "I'm gonna test him, oh look he passed, let's look elsewhere!" makes perfect sense.
I focused a good bit of my overnight re-read on him, and I'm strongly leaning town there. His interaction with Az don't feel like distancing or busing to me.
So now we're getting to the most interesting part, from my perspective at least. Because I thought Fuwa's claim was awful.
Had I been around, it is entirely possible that that claim would have convinced me to vote for him. I'm not sure there's much point in dissecting it now, but it's just so textbook bad for someone in his situation. When I first read it, next morning catching up before I knew who got lynched, my very first thought was "wow, he's such a goner...." There was simply no way that claim, made in that way, at that time, was going to convince anyone to change their votes. Or so I thought.
Cantrip was the first one who posted after, and his take essentially mirrored my own. In #1235 he claims he had been planning to move his vote back to Az before the end of the day (and here I pause to say, really? You were leaving it until the literal last second when it might not have mattered anymore? And I make a note to myself to go and check if Cantrip said anywhere that this was his intention.) But despite this intention, Fuwa's claim has him leaving his vote right where it is.
And I can't blame him. As I said, had I been in that spot, that definitely would have been at least my initial take on it as well. Possibly I could have come around. Don't know.
Killjoy posted at #1238 and equivocated. I don't even understand his mentality here, he says "Thought for later: maybe there's actually multiple joats." Suggesting he might believe Fuwa, but doesn't really argue against his lynch or for anyone else. He just throws it out there. This might not be inconsistent with Killjoy not liking either of the choices. And if Killjoy were scum, it would have been so, so easy to jump on Fuwa there. Thinking about it more, it seems like Killjoy might be Town waffling here, unless he's specifically scum with both Az and Fuwa. Maybe he could be gunshy scum who was afraid of looking like he was defending a scumbuddy and locked into not voting from his previous statements. But the bad claim would have given him an easy out to try and save Az if he just went for it.
So, now I'm calling that a Town-lean.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
And then at #1249, with less than 38 minutes until deadline, it's Shadowlancerx who comes in and probably saves the day. He switches off Fuwa and back to Az. And that flips the majority.
I said something about epic-bussing in relation to KCC above, this would truly be some epic-bussing if Shadow is not Town. Again, it's not impossible, but it just seems so unlikely for a scum-Shadow to make the decision to throw Az under the bus like that with 38 minutes remaining, when it would have been sooooo so easy to stay on Fuwa after that terrible claim. It seems so unlikely that I'm just not going to believe it.
Shadow-Town.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Cantrip followed Shadow's vote with a vote for Az at #1252, and this vote likely sealed the deal. He thinks he's just tipped it to be 7-6 in favor of Az, but it's actually 8-5 because Shadow's vote came off Fuwa. I feel like this vote is consistent with what Cantrip has been posting in the thread. I also like how active and engaged he was at the deadline, asking questions and prodding, especially of Fuwa. As I said, his thought process seemed to mirror my own.
As a possible bus-vote, I rate this as marginally more plausible than Shadow's vote, but still not likely. Maybe if Cantrip had actually caught that the vote total was now in favor of Az. Rhand came back posting in the middle and he was still aggressively pushing for an Az lynch, so that could have had an effect as well. But overall, it still looks good for Cantrip.
Cantrip-Likely Town
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
The other people pushing Az (me, Rhand, uhh Axel? anyone else chime in if I'm forgetting you) were strictly focused on explaining why Az was scum, analyzing his claim and behavior, things like that.
I know that my reasoning probably seemed questionable to anyone but me at the time, but I freaking started the Az wagon, and then I stumped for votes to grow his wagon.
KCC is the one who starts the shift back to Az. That's post #1200. Considering KCC was on Fuwa that represented a 2-vote swing, and suddenly made Az viable again. If this was some kind of bus, then it was a huge and epic bus - especially considering it was Az we are talking about and his unknown but presumably powerful role. Scum simply would not have wanted him to get lynched in that spot, at that time. Period. You might argue that KCC was just trying to be consistent, having been on Az's case for most of the day, but the shift off Az onto Fuwa wouldn't have been consistent with that. in fact, it would have been actively detrimental to hypothetical scum-KCC's epic bussing efforts.
And then if hypothetical scum-KCC did move off Az and onto Fuwa, seeing that Fuwa was about to get lynched, it seems like it would have been much, much easier and better for scum to just let that happen. Rather than turn and lead the charge to re-bus Az all over again. I mean, it's theoretically possible - KCC could have been gambling that there wasn't enough time for more votes to shift back to Az - but just not at all likely. Even if Fuwa were scum, one would assume that scum would rather have had Fuwa lynched in that spot over Az, and if KCC was already voting Fuwa and would have then got the "credit" for being on a correct lynch, it just seems less and less plausible that KCC can be scum.
This is REALLY good analysis, and I agree with the conclusion.
I want to reread some, looking at Az interactions, but here's where I'm at:
TOWN
KCC - Strong force in getting Az lunched over Fuwa. Vez - Strong early counterclaim against scum; unlikely to come from a buddy. Fuwa - Counterwagon to scum, also 1-shot feels like a more likely balancing element than Az's "get all after a while". Axel - Lots of mindmeld, doesn't feel like he has an agenda. Dkings - Super innocent/pure posting. Shadow - Pushed by dead scum, voted Az when he could have pushed it toward Fuwa pretty easily. Vaimes - Good feelings of conviction, sat on Az wagon, which could be a bus, I suppose, but doesn't feel that way. Killjoy - Still feel like his response to early game pressure was really good, but I feel like he needs the most re-evaluation of anyone in my not-interested-in-killing list.
DEAD LINE
Grape - Least likely among the ones I'd be interested in lunching/vigging toDay, but definitely needs some scrutiny. Beeboy - Trying to decide whether 907 was a legitimate derp or a calculated one, because how do you miss a modpost that you should be looking for? Tom - Too much lolposting/lack of content/lack of solving. A dayvig is almost always welcome, though, so let's start there and see where it goes.
Chris - That role info exchange just felt so much like Chris and Az were power wolfing/winking at each other. Az's response to the question doesn't feel like scum trying to placate town. Also, Chris was pushing the "Oh, Vez, you're not really a JOAT! Oh, phew, Az isn't really counterclaimed; nothing to see here, folks!" line. Starting the Day off with "I was being evilly frictional on purpose" feels ick, too. Wisp - So way back in 760 I said "If [something], then I'm definitely [something else]". Decoded, that is "If [Az's wagon suddenly dissipates], then I'm definitely [taking a hard look at Wisp]", because Wisp's unvote in 757 was terrible and felt like it was intended to start wagon dismantling momentum. A little while later in 767 I added "if [not something], then I'll probably [some third thing]." That decoded is "if [Az's wagon doesn't fall apart, then I'll probably [unvote him, because this would be a natural point for scum to pivot off of him and onto someone else]". I ended up not following my instincts, there, thankfully, but I still think that unvote was really bad.
SCUM
I want some reread time before giving my final recommendation on Tom's kill.
Tom, it's a little concerning that you didn't weigh in on your kill choice/reasoning BEFORE opening up the discussion. Who do YOU want to shoot? Why?
I got a nice big list of reads, and we agree on many so that's good.
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Annd then the last (two) votes were Killjoy at #1260, and Tom swooping in for "Hammertime" too late @1261.
Both of these were the equivalent of garbage-time votes given the plurality lynching mechanism. Az was already going down, so the votes were meaningless in that sense. I will give Killjoy more credit for being around earlier and expressing his opinions. Tom gets NOTHING.
That's that part of the day. I think the earlier part where all the votes went off Az and onto Fuwa so rapidly is worth a closer look also, but that will have to happen later.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I'm still confident that Az doesn't try to town clear a buddy grape in those circumstances.
Why not?
The point of that post was to mimic his in depth analysis, which is easy to do when you know someone is town.
If grape was under more pressure, or if it wasn't worded as confidently, then maybe. But I just don't think Az is capable of making that post knowing grape is scum.
I'm also going to echo KCC is asking Fuwa to state whether he used his 1-shot last night. Not anything else yet, but just that much.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
On the subject of who Tom is going to hypothetically shoot.
1. Vaimes
2. Grapefruit21 3. Axelrod
5. Sir Chris
6. Fuwa 7. Cantripmancer 8. shadowlancerx 9. vezokpiraka 10. KittyCupCake r. KillerCandyCorn
11. Lastwhisper r. Syrenz
12. dkingsland967 13. killjoy
14. beeboy
If I struck through your name I currently actively think you are Town. The rest I haven't looked close enough at yet.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
*This is largely feels-based and not something I'm going to push until I read some more and decide where I want to go with it.
The other people pushing Az (me, Rhand, uhh Axel? anyone else chime in if I'm forgetting you) were strictly focused on explaining why Az was scum, analyzing his claim and behavior, things like that.
I also think her initial vote on Azrael (where she was like "no, I don't want to vote Az, VOTE AZ") and her jump to and from Fuwa were weird if she's town. Her being so confident in the Azrael push makes her Fuwa vote worse.
Could just be me that feels that way.
Azrael (9): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967, KittyCupCake, Axelrod, Fuwa, shadowlancerx, Cantripmancer, killjoy
Fuwa (5): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, tomsloger, vezokpiraka, Lastwhisper
shadowlancerx (1): beeboy
Vaimes (1): Azrael
I'm town, Rhand was town, I think dk is town, Axel and Fuwa are both probably town, shadow is ehhh a Difficult One now that I'm trying to force myself to state something absolute about him, Cantrip is ???, and Killjoy is kind of town. Mostly because "I don't want to vote Azrael because our reads match" is uh. An interesting post to make as your buddy is about to die.
KCC just kinda sticks out to me here, more than anyone else on the wagon.
It is also worth noting that Az had no real push yesterday except for me.
But it’s fine, you do you.
I'm also willing to lynch Sir Chris. That part where he knew az was lying about the claim is still really really scummy especially now that Az flipped scum. Killjoy is still scum from yesterday and was also put as "strong town" on dead's scum list.
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Im killing someone today.
Discuss
You insisted that dead scum had more to say about his role and he confirmed that in thread to you. It's so scummy that it passes through the "too scummy to be scum" zone and right into this person is 100% scum and nothing anyone says will convince me otherwise.
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I know I said that, I think someone else did as well (I want to say axel?), and I'm still confident that Az doesn't try to town clear a buddy grape in those circumstances.
This is smart to consider, because I absolutely knew Az was scum. I don't think Chris would be a mislynch though.
But Cantrip knows me fairly well, you can discuss it with him. :Smile:
It would be an odd strategic choice. But I have a feeling it was less a choice and more a horrible accident.
I was definitely more confident in my Az read, but I think fuwa is scum too, and did not mind squeezing that push in. And I was confident I could kick momentum back towards Az before the deadline.
Can it be Chris? You know you want to
And if it is, I won’t tell you to follow the whims of the masses (not really your style) but I would hope that you ask for a claim before firing.
Also, I wouldn’t mind a Fuwa shot, other than that I’d need to ponder.
(*Looks at top 3 of library*)
Okay, are you claiming that you can't use all of these at once, that you can't use all of these yet, or that you can only use one of these ever?
If it's one of those first two options, did you do something last night?
-Just yes or no right now, no details.
As far as I'm concerned vezok is confirmed town. I have very strong town reads on Shadow, Vaimes and KCC. Vaimes's points about KCC potentially being deep scum are reasonable, but there is no real reason to consider that possibility yet.
I really liked Axelrod's late-day posts yesterday. Tom is on hold with this daykill claim.
A Cantrip re-read might be in order. Anyone who supported Azrael's request for an extension gets scum points from me, and I believe Cantrip was on that short list.
Still probably gonna kill tom after he “fires.”
KCC is the one who starts the shift back to Az. That's post #1200. Considering KCC was on Fuwa that represented a 2-vote swing, and suddenly made Az viable again. If this was some kind of bus, then it was a huge and epic bus - especially considering it was Az we are talking about and his unknown but presumably powerful role. Scum simply would not have wanted him to get lynched in that spot, at that time. Period. You might argue that KCC was just trying to be consistent, having been on Az's case for most of the day, but the shift off Az onto Fuwa wouldn't have been consistent with that. in fact, it would have been actively detrimental to hypothetical scum-KCC's epic bussing efforts.
And then if hypothetical scum-KCC did move off Az and onto Fuwa, seeing that Fuwa was about to get lynched, it seems like it would have been much, much easier and better for scum to just let that happen. Rather than turn and lead the charge to re-bus Az all over again. I mean, it's theoretically possible - KCC could have been gambling that there wasn't enough time for more votes to shift back to Az - but just not at all likely. Even if Fuwa were scum, one would assume that scum would rather have had Fuwa lynched in that spot over Az, and if KCC was already voting Fuwa and would have then got the "credit" for being on a correct lynch, it just seems less and less plausible that KCC can be scum.
Also KCC scum worlds are so fringe that you'd need some serious role info to make me even consider the thought.
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I'm pretty much in agreement with all of this.
Also, regarding the bolded sentence, the fact that we have plurality lynch makes it even less likely that scum would take that gamble.
So, yeah, bad vote.
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KCC also had a post that looks really cheeky and TMI, but it can be shelved for now.
Or make tom shoot LW. That would be fun.
Pro: Killjoy, Axelrod, Fuwa. Cantrip also said he would support an extension, but only if people wanted to switch off from lynching Azrael to lynching Tom, and vezok voted for it very late for the expressed reason that he didn't want to lynch Fuwa.
Anti: KCC, Shadow, Rhand, Grape, Vaimes
Made no comment: Tom, Chris, LW. Also beeboy, but he hasn't posted since the 14th.
Also, /barn the stuff about KCC being very likely town.
I've already stated why I think Fuwa is a good shot.
Axelrod made a very good point. In a world where Fuwa is town and KCC is scum, why would KCC try to sway momentum back to her buddy when Fuwa was at L-2? Add in the fact that Azrael didn't actually have to get to 9 votes to potentially be lynched and it's even more risky.
In a world where both Fuwa and KCC are scum, I don't think it makes sense either, but that's more based on a hunch that Azrael likely had a very strong role. Weak abilities generally don't require jumping through hoops to unlock them.
Vote Count 2.1
tomsloger (3): Axelrod, Sir Chris, Vaimes
Killjoy (2): dkingsland967, vezokpiraka
Sir Chris (1): KittyCupCake
Abstain (8): Grapefruit21, tomsloger, Fuwa, Cantripmancer, shadowlancerx, Lastwhisper, beeboy, Killjoy
With 14 alive, it takes 8 votes to lynch.
Day 1 will end on Sunday, September 1st, at 11:59 PM.
Hmm. I dont think fuwa is a good shot.
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I was staying up until midnight to see what happened under the mistaken belief that the day ended at midnight e.s.t. When we went past midnight and Proph did not appear I was annoyed, but still stayed up. Then Proph posted the updated votecount at something like 12:30-12:45 a.m. When I realized it was still going to be 2 more hours. I went to bed. Fuwa had still not claimed anything at that point.
Of course, Fuwa appeared shortly after and made his claim in #132. 1-shot JOAT. Votes for Azrael in the same post.
It's interesting to contemplate this from a "what if they are both scum" viewpoint. I feel like scum-Fuwa could easily make that vote in that spot, might even have felt obligated to do so. But it still seems likely that the scum - if forced to pick between Az and Fuwa - would have preferred Az live, no disrespect intended to Fuwa. And it would have been very easy for Fuwa to take a dive here, or just not vote Az to increase the likelyhood of his own lynch.
Looking back, Fuwa didn't have much at all to say about Az prior to the "self-preservation" vote. Most might have been this: AZ didn't have anything to say about Fuwa either, until he got under pressure and started doing player reviews "from the lowest poster up." That means you probably can't attach any significant meaning to the fact that Az started with Fuwa. His "read" however, was very inconclusive.
So, I can't say the scum-buddy theory is disproven from any of this. It still just seems less likely to me though.
For now.
That was one of the most fake, plastic exchanges I've ever seen.
If you were actually testing him, you don't announce "Hey, this is s test!" And you certainly don't try to clear him when he responds in the exact way you said he should.
Well, unless you're scum, then "I'm gonna test him, oh look he passed, let's look elsewhere!" makes perfect sense.
I focused a good bit of my overnight re-read on him, and I'm strongly leaning town there. His interaction with Az don't feel like distancing or busing to me.
I'm pretty sure one of my current townleans need to be scum, and these are probably two of the more likely.
I'm sure the scumteam as a whole would agree with this. But there's no guarantee fuwa individually does.
Had I been around, it is entirely possible that that claim would have convinced me to vote for him. I'm not sure there's much point in dissecting it now, but it's just so textbook bad for someone in his situation. When I first read it, next morning catching up before I knew who got lynched, my very first thought was "wow, he's such a goner...." There was simply no way that claim, made in that way, at that time, was going to convince anyone to change their votes. Or so I thought.
Cantrip was the first one who posted after, and his take essentially mirrored my own. In #1235 he claims he had been planning to move his vote back to Az before the end of the day (and here I pause to say, really? You were leaving it until the literal last second when it might not have mattered anymore? And I make a note to myself to go and check if Cantrip said anywhere that this was his intention.) But despite this intention, Fuwa's claim has him leaving his vote right where it is.
And I can't blame him. As I said, had I been in that spot, that definitely would have been at least my initial take on it as well. Possibly I could have come around. Don't know.
Killjoy posted at #1238 and equivocated. I don't even understand his mentality here, he says "Thought for later: maybe there's actually multiple joats." Suggesting he might believe Fuwa, but doesn't really argue against his lynch or for anyone else. He just throws it out there. This might not be inconsistent with Killjoy not liking either of the choices. And if Killjoy were scum, it would have been so, so easy to jump on Fuwa there. Thinking about it more, it seems like Killjoy might be Town waffling here, unless he's specifically scum with both Az and Fuwa. Maybe he could be gunshy scum who was afraid of looking like he was defending a scumbuddy and locked into not voting from his previous statements. But the bad claim would have given him an easy out to try and save Az if he just went for it.
So, now I'm calling that a Town-lean.
I said something about epic-bussing in relation to KCC above, this would truly be some epic-bussing if Shadow is not Town. Again, it's not impossible, but it just seems so unlikely for a scum-Shadow to make the decision to throw Az under the bus like that with 38 minutes remaining, when it would have been sooooo so easy to stay on Fuwa after that terrible claim. It seems so unlikely that I'm just not going to believe it.
Shadow-Town.
As a possible bus-vote, I rate this as marginally more plausible than Shadow's vote, but still not likely. Maybe if Cantrip had actually caught that the vote total was now in favor of Az. Rhand came back posting in the middle and he was still aggressively pushing for an Az lynch, so that could have had an effect as well. But overall, it still looks good for Cantrip.
Cantrip-Likely Town
You're thinking it's posturing?
Why?
Expound on this, please.
I know that my reasoning probably seemed questionable to anyone but me at the time, but I freaking started the Az wagon, and then I stumped for votes to grow his wagon.
Worth noting, yes, and I want to look back over those posts, but you of all people should know that this isn't conclusive.
Why not?
It's been a long time since you last played; why do you think I know you well? And *wink* back, I think.
Are you off that table, or...?
This is REALLY good analysis, and I agree with the conclusion.
I want to reread some, looking at Az interactions, but here's where I'm at:
TOWN
KCC - Strong force in getting Az lunched over Fuwa.
Vez - Strong early counterclaim against scum; unlikely to come from a buddy.
Fuwa - Counterwagon to scum, also 1-shot feels like a more likely balancing element than Az's "get all after a while".
Axel - Lots of mindmeld, doesn't feel like he has an agenda.
Dkings - Super innocent/pure posting.
Shadow - Pushed by dead scum, voted Az when he could have pushed it toward Fuwa pretty easily.
Vaimes - Good feelings of conviction, sat on Az wagon, which could be a bus, I suppose, but doesn't feel that way.
Killjoy - Still feel like his response to early game pressure was really good, but I feel like he needs the most re-evaluation of anyone in my not-interested-in-killing list.
DEAD LINE
Grape - Least likely among the ones I'd be interested in lunching/vigging toDay, but definitely needs some scrutiny.
Beeboy - Trying to decide whether 907 was a legitimate derp or a calculated one, because how do you miss a modpost that you should be looking for?
Tom - Too much lolposting/lack of content/lack of solving. A dayvig is almost always welcome, though, so let's start there and see where it goes.
Chris - That role info exchange just felt so much like Chris and Az were power wolfing/winking at each other. Az's response to the question doesn't feel like scum trying to placate town. Also, Chris was pushing the "Oh, Vez, you're not really a JOAT! Oh, phew, Az isn't really counterclaimed; nothing to see here, folks!" line. Starting the Day off with "I was being evilly frictional on purpose" feels ick, too.
Wisp - So way back in 760 I said "If [something], then I'm definitely [something else]". Decoded, that is "If [Az's wagon suddenly dissipates], then I'm definitely [taking a hard look at Wisp]", because Wisp's unvote in 757 was terrible and felt like it was intended to start wagon dismantling momentum. A little while later in 767 I added "if [not something], then I'll probably [some third thing]." That decoded is "if [Az's wagon doesn't fall apart, then I'll probably [unvote him, because this would be a natural point for scum to pivot off of him and onto someone else]". I ended up not following my instincts, there, thankfully, but I still think that unvote was really bad.
SCUM
I want some reread time before giving my final recommendation on Tom's kill.
Tom, it's a little concerning that you didn't weigh in on your kill choice/reasoning BEFORE opening up the discussion. Who do YOU want to shoot? Why?
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Both of these were the equivalent of garbage-time votes given the plurality lynching mechanism. Az was already going down, so the votes were meaningless in that sense. I will give Killjoy more credit for being around earlier and expressing his opinions. Tom gets NOTHING.
That's that part of the day. I think the earlier part where all the votes went off Az and onto Fuwa so rapidly is worth a closer look also, but that will have to happen later.
If grape was under more pressure, or if it wasn't worded as confidently, then maybe. But I just don't think Az is capable of making that post knowing grape is scum.
Yes, that, but also, you were the only one who realized who I was pregame. I know you can't quite clear me, but I figure this might help a little.
And other than fuwa and grape, I'm pretty comfortable with your list
1. Vaimes2. Grapefruit21
3. Axelrod5. Sir Chris
6. Fuwa
7. Cantripmancer8. shadowlancerx9. vezokpiraka10. KittyCupCake r. KillerCandyCorn11. Lastwhisper r. Syrenz
12. dkingsland967
13. killjoy14. beeboy
If I struck through your name I currently actively think you are Town. The rest I haven't looked close enough at yet.
I'd be more comfortable with a KJ shot, than either dk or grape. Otherwise