I absolutely do not believe that the PoE is that wrong, Chris, and I don't think it's exactly Cantrip/Rodemy, either.
It isn't Day 1 anymore, I need more than "has done enough stuff". What specifically makes both Rhand and shadow townier than Rodemy? More specifically, what makes them more likely to be a villager than Will who got chainsawed by LnGr?
'cause like. You can say "a wolf never says this" all you want but shadow is very good at doing things wolves don't do and still being a wolf. Pretty sure every game he's been a wolf in I went back after the post game and still couldn't figure out how he wasn't town. Maaaybe Arkham excepted but I think he got alignment checked and lunched because of that rather than because he was actually wolfy.
It's just about the only thing I think makes me want Rhand over him, feel like he'd be more engaged / having more fun if he was a wolf. Plus last time I actually thought he was wolf I was wrong and we lost off of it...
What do you make of Rhand telling everyone to follow me if he gets lunched?
I don't have that much respect for his town play if truth be told. He was wildly off in death in the family.
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tbh I am thinking rodemy/you atm. Which is why I am like to myself "oh god I am going to have to slug it out if this one's scum he is power wolfing so hard right now" so I want to go for rodemy first to isolate you and see if I can build threads.
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Ok, I started this last week and made some solid progress today (through page 5). More to come, hopefully tonight. Sorry if it's a little rough around the edges; it started as isoing Rhand, Grape, Shadow, and Will, but I realized while I was at it that I might as well go whole-hog and look at everyone's interactions...and then some non-LnG interaction stuff caught me eye. So pretty much everyone other than Rod, Wisp, Vaimes, and Tubba gets questions in multiple directions. Nothing to Rod because Will barely posted, same with Riku/Wisp, one comment on Tubba, but I'm pretty sold on him being town, and nothing I expect Vaimes to respond to because he hadn't replaced in yet. Nothing to Wisp because of the claim.
Silver,
• Did you ever explain what you were dancing around in 16? Oh. This was where you first noted lack of votes from Riku and Shin.
• 53 mild response to LnG comment.
• When you said "super cereal" in 56, what did you mean (if that wasn't a typo, what does that mean)? Also, in what way did my response to Shin make you "???"?
• So 63 is where you explain your suspicion on Riku for not voting in RVS. I realize there's a difference between Riku's lack of vote and Shin's lack of vote, but no follow up on Shin at this point?
• 87 is a big plus for you, imo, if Tubba is town. This doesn't feel like how scum address town. Possibly coaching, but doesn't feel like it.
• Ditto with the follow up in 90.
• Why did you say there were at least two wolves in [Rhand / LnGrrr / Ruma / Will / Tubba / Shadow] in 187? I see where your general thought process of "here's these people I don't want to lunch, so there have to be wolves in the remainder", but why TWO wolves?
• I did a quick scan, but I don't quite see why Tom is asking if he caught you in 211; can you clarify that for me? I know you had just voted Rhand, but I didn't see any recent comments from you that felt like you were maybe leaning LnG but swerved to Rhand?
• Your justification for voting Rhand over LnG in 213 isn't great, but doesn't feel forced.
Shadow,
• Your 25 still pings on re-read. The missed opportunities feels fakey, and your questions to Silver have a distancing feel about them. Can you point to you-Silver interactions this game that you feel are indicative of the two of you being unaligned?
• But I sorta like 28; not sure scum!you encourages town!Tom like that.
• 31 I can't tell if your annoyance at LnG's standard Rhand vote is real. I was going to say that it didn't seem to even register for you in Token Power Redux, but then I realized that was the first time they did that. Did you ever pick LnG's brain on the Grape question? Oh, yes, you clarified in 80.
• 32/33 is the juicy plomb, which felt really natural the first time through. I...know you can be that witty, so it's entirely possible that it was natural/unplanned.
• What did you get out of your question to LnG in 76?
• My gut response to your 80 is to call you out because you didn't "talk about LnG's Grape question", you just told LnG you wanted to pick his brain on it after Grape responded. Grape responded and you only got back to it in a roundabout way when Silver called you out on "sheeping" Tom, but... thinking about it, I'm not sure that series of events is scummy. I could see me forgetting to follow up immediately and then, when reminded by someone else's comment that essentially addressed my point, just agreeing and moving on. So no town points, but no scum points, either.
• In context, I think LnG's response to you here is less likely to be one given to a buddy. I think if you were scum with LnG he'd give a more confident/definite answer.
• I think your back and forth with Riku/Wisp makes you unaligned with that slot. Riku's initial expression of never reading you again felt a little out of nowhere, but I think there's some actual emotion there.
• Don't really like your Tom/barn vote on LnG in 145, especially with LnG not even commenting on it. Maybe that's just LnG trying to avoid conflict with you?
• I like that you call Shin out in 167 for his liking the LnG wagon but not voting, especially when you start that post off with an indication that you don't feel like lunching him. Good pressure on LnG.
Grape,
• I like your entrance in 27; feels playful, natural.
• 39 (response to LnG's meta question) would ping me if it didn't hit so close to some similar sentiments I've been feeling about myself.
• 42 Same with this one, although it could definitely be you premeditating excuses for being "wrong" in reads this game. Question to LnG at the end feels a little tacked on, but not completely unnatural.
• 44 is where LnG is weirded out by your play in GoT and he's not sure how to read you anymore. I'm not sure whether this is him setting you up to be perceived as being a different alignment from DitF/GoT, or if he's establishing interaction with a buddy. I think I'm leaning toward the latter based on him waffling and including the "probably not alignment indicative" element. Let me see how you respond to it, though.
• LnG's 61 response to Tom about Grape feels straightforward, serious to me. Do you feel like LnG "got real" in posts where he was talking about you this game?
• Your 73 feels a bit odd because you don't really call LnG out on how he's handling you until Tom points it out, and then you're like "hey, if I didn't know I'm not LnG's buddy, I'd think he was trying to theatre with a buddy". But that could just be because you didn't post in between.
• Why didn't you comment on Silver's observation on Riku's RVS habits in 71 when you made post #74?
• 175 is +town to you, imo. You say everyone is restrained except for Rhand and LnG, says it makes you feel better about Rhand, but you're not sure on LnG. It's a hedge (you Hedgelord, you), but if you're scum you're putting buddy!LnG in the spotlight and then hedging in a way that puts him in negative (or, at least, not positive) light.
• I like you naming LnG as a possible theoretical Despy target (second to Chris). LnG had a little scrutiny at this point, but nothing real serious (wagon was Tom and barnShadow, I believe), so only reason to say this if you're scum is some mild pre-emptive distancing. Possible, but doesn't feel that way.
• Something perverse in me wants to read into your comment about Tom never getting NK'd N1, but I'm pretty sure it's NAI.
• Were you saying in 249 that [Chris] not having a scum read on LnG did nothing for you, or [you] not having a scum read on LnG means that Chris's reasoning [for scumreading me] did nothing for you? I've read it several times and I still can't quite parse it.
Rhand,
• Entry feels standard RVS, routine vote on LnG, joking attitude.
• Question @ALL on 105: is it legit for Rhand to accuse Grape of open wolfing if Rhand doesn't know LnG's alignment? Rhand, your second comment feels like a reach, but then Grape clarifies what he meant, and instead of seeing his point, you take him literally and ask him where he used a phrase that he never used....doesn't feel like scum would be so tunneled to push Grape on that, and it doesn't feel like a buddy interaction, either. I think this makes you unaligned with Grape.
• Explain what you were doing with your question to Tubba in 108?
• Tom was somewhat defending you in 130. I want to keep an eye on how he treated you because I don't think you're the kind of player to perversely kill town who are townreading you. If he continues, less likely you're scum?
Vaimes,
(Shinichi posts)
• 46 is pretty low-impact/feels a little pockety toward Shadow.
• 47 is...wow. Not only does he say he likes LnG's slot, but saying "slot" feels a bit like distancing.
• 49 tinfoil breaking could stem from TMI (since Tom obviously wasn't scum)?
• 50 addendum question to LnG
• 51 LnG answers question, asks if Shin's vote on Tom is real.
• 66 Fairly abrasive/prickly non-answer to LnG's "is that Tom vote real" question.
• 70 is an oddly worded defense of Riku; assuming Wisp is town, it could be TMI. If it is (and Shin/Vaimes is scum), then encouragement of Silver to attack a town slot without contributing to it, makes me +town Silver.
• 160 he actually responds to LnG's question.
• 163-166 starts off unvoting Tom, then responds to several posts/asks questions of multiple players, but nothing with/to LnG. Highlights Tom and Shadow's vote on LnG and says the wagon looks nice/asks if he can join, but doesn't vote. ++scum
• 168 Tom was also townreading this slot for effort. But Vaimes replaced Shin before N1, and I don't think Vaimes would blink at the possibility of killing someone who was townreading him.
• 180 laughs off the question about his stated desire to be on LnG without actually voting LnG.
Sir Chris,
• Why vote Rhand in 111 and then soften it with "I'm going to have some fun with Rhand"? That feels like you never really intended to pressure Rhand (and I think Rhand would have picked up on that). Why use the "convince" language in your question to Tubba?
• 148 question to LnG doesn't feel hard-hitting, but not exactly a soft lob, either.
• LnG's response to you in 150 in context feels like he's backing off, trying to avoid antagonizing you. +town to you
• What was your point to LnG in 169? You asked him if your gusto was a scum tell, he said he didn't think gusto was a tell either way, you said he was taking Rhand over you (140) because of your pep...but he actually said it was for your "bombast and overall pomposity". Also, it feels like you're again announcing that you're going to poke Rhand but without any teeth to the threat. In fact...looking at your iso, you talk about poking Rhand 3-4 times early game, but I don't feel like you actually take any steps in that direction. At least, not before you jump off Rhand and onto me in 231. Show me how you were poking/pressuring Rhand prior to 231 (with focus, not just "oh, Rhand is scum")?
• Your 191 where you say "hey, I don't like Rhand or LnG, so join me on Rhand" feels so much like the kind of thing I'd do as scum if I wanted to create some distance between me and buddy!LnG without actually pushing LnG. I fully acknowledge that you are not me, and your methods are not mine, but it's still pinging.
• What did you think of Shin's observation on you at the end of 192?
• 197 you say LnG isn't great for trying to use your pomp against you.
• What question of LnG's to me came off as softball?
Tubba Fett,
• 157 is one of the few responses from you to LnG that I'm not as fond of, but given how LnG treated you in general, I still think you're highly likely to be town.
Posting these notes/questions even though I'm nowhere near finished/don't have conclusions because I want to generate some conversation before we run completely out of time.
tbh I am thinking rodemy/you atm. Which is why I am like to myself "oh god I am going to have to slug it out if this one's scum he is power wolfing so hard right now" so I want to go for rodemy first to isolate you and see if I can build threads.
I mean, if it's me / Rodemy you can go ahead and build off of those associatives because most of them would already exist and should tie us to LnGrrr if you're right.
Also you're doing a bad job of getting me night killed by leaving me on the table. If you want me to get night killed why voice paranoia now? If it's exactly me/Rodemy why not wait until Rodemy flips?
• When you said "super cereal" in 56, what did you mean (if that wasn't a typo, what does that mean)? Also, in what way did my response to Shin make you "???"?
Thought the post explained pretty well but I can try to elaborate. It felt really strange that you made a joke, then Shinichi treated it like it was really serious and you put a lot of thought into it, and then you responded like you had meant it as a serious comment that wasn't a joke and you had actually thought about it a lot. "Super cereal" is just a silly way of saying "super serious".
I still think this whole interaction is really strange. If you're a wolf this is actually one of the better reasons for it because it felt like you... this is hard to explain. I'll put it at the bottom because it's kind of tangential to the question.
• So 63 is where you explain your suspicion on Riku for not voting in RVS. I realize there's a difference between Riku's lack of vote and Shin's lack of vote, but no follow up on Shin at this point?
Didn't really feel the need to, Shinichi was posting pretty frequently and I thought the Ruma catch was really solid and wanted him first. Was mostly focused on getting people to take stances on that one because if he flipped wolf I thought it would be good info and then no one really wanted to talk about it, either.
• Why did you say there were at least two wolves in [Rhand / LnGrrr / Ruma / Will / Tubba / Shadow] in 187? I see where your general thought process of "here's these people I don't want to lunch, so there have to be wolves in the remainder", but why TWO wolves?
"At least two" is just a hedge, I'm almost never 100% confident in the PoE. Just means that I thought the clears I had then were pretty good but there might be a deep wolf, etc.
• I did a quick scan, but I don't quite see why Tom is asking if he caught you in 211; can you clarify that for me? I know you had just voted Rhand, but I didn't see any recent comments from you that felt like you were maybe leaning LnG but swerved to Rhand?
If you reread my #210 you'll see I was only going to be around for an hour at (9:40 PM EDT). Tom was asking if I was still here at (10:53 PM EDT), which was a bit more than an hour after. Pretty sure he was just asking if I was still there.
Why did you think this was related to my Rhand vote or why it might indicate that tom thought I was going to vote LnGrrr?
So... There's this severe mindset mismatch between the mindset you're representing ("I recently compiled my mafia stats, and I've played a few games over on 451, which is a fairly different mafia experience, and it's caused me to be rather introspective.") and the post you made ("This isn't quite true. If it's well into the game and it's not obvious that I'm town, I'm always scum. At this point in the game, I'm actually always town."). I can't really figure out how the mindset of "being introspective" is connected to making the joke or why you wouldn't just own it as a joke. I suppose the answer could be "it really wasn't a joke" but like. It's so obviously a joke I can't see how it could have been serious.
And like, hypothetically speaking, if wolf!Cantrip makes a joke like that and a villager says "man, you look like you put a lot of thought into that really serious post", he maybe says to himself "Hmm, I wonder if I can pocket this villager by congratulating him on seeing that I thought about it a lot but I need to justify why I was thinking deeply about it, because I totally wasn't, and I don't want anyone to know that so I'll talk about how I've been playing on other sites here". I'm probably explaining that badly but that's kind of what it felt like.
At the time I was more focused on Ruma and since then I haven't really had any other good reason to think you're a wolf. Well, except for this post you just made, because it feels a lot like busy work but we'll see where you go with it, I suppose.
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That's... actually a good point I guess but it still seems weird to keep going "hey I think this guy could be a wolf with the person I want to lunch" if you actually want me to die.
That's... actually a good point I guess but it still seems weird to keep going "hey I think this guy could be a wolf with the person I want to lunch" if you actually want me to die.
posting from mobile, so I'll respond to your other post when I'm at a computer, but this response is...wut? How is Chris's post a good point? Do you actually think there's a correlation between Chris voicing suspicion of Tom and Tom being the NK?
No, my point was that Chris suspecting me reduces the chances of me being nightkilled and his point is that he suspected tom and tom was nightkilled anyway. It's data that goes against my theory that someone being suspected by Chris reduces the chance of them being killed.
Though I suppose that was also before the LnGrrr flip cleared tom, I'd have to go back and see if Chris actually thought tom and LnGrrr we're partners because that's a pretty significant difference lol.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Rhand (3) - Vaimes (#299), Grapefruit21 (#300), Will-98 (#329)
LnGrrrR (3) - tomsloger (#144), Silvercrys3467 (#348), shadowlancerx (#353)
Sir Chris (1) - Cantripmancer (#230)
tomsloger (1) - LnGrrrR (#153)
Grapefruit21 (1) - Rhand (#268)
Will-98 (1) - Sir Chris (#332)
I think it is extreme wishful thinking that rhand and lngr are both scum tbh. I also like these votals for silver/rodemy because silver constantly goes back and forth on rhand and if lng could have gotten his act together I am sure he and will/rodemy would have pushed hard on Rhand.
Yeah liking my Rhand is town world bunches.
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Is your Rhand is town world based on me being a wolf or is it vice versa?
Because it really sounds like you're starting from worlds where I'm a wolf and building backwards to justify that read.
Also if LnGr had been my partner I, like most of the people in this game, would have bussed him into the dirt. There's no point in helping you lunch my partner if I don't even get any cred for it.
(You know who did kind of bus him pretty hard if he's his partner? Shadow.)
Also your theory that all three wolves would have pushed Rhand hard to save a mostly wolf read goon is pretty ridiculous.
Okay so let's have a little talk about my world building. I don't think the way Lng interacted with Rhand is scum/scum, I just don't. I tend to be right when I say these things. My scum hunting can be hit or miss - I am man enough to admit that - but my town reading is far less prone to errors. So you pushing Rhand here when I think there is a lot of interaction and circumstances that point against it rubs me the wrong way. In fact I'd say I for sure don't have a solid scum read on you. I just keep looking over the game and going "man Silver as power wolf just kind of makes sense here." It's not that you've done anything to offend me, but I am putting together a puzzle and scum is a missing shape in the middle that's shaped very close to your shape and I go "Hrm."
Also um... Lng never really pushed Rhand. So.. not all three wolves would have been on him! Also eventually both of you abandoned ship so nothing hard about it I do agree.
No need to bus recklessly and early though. Town can never get mislynches back, after all.
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You just said if LnGr had gotten his act together you think he and Rodemy would have pushed Rhand, in which case, yes, all three of us would have been pushing Rhand to save him.
I'm neither voting Rhand nor campaigning for his lunch at this precise moment so I have no idea where you got this idea that I'm strongly pushing him. I've been reconsidering since he told people to follow me if he gets lunched which is kind of a ~weird~ look if he's a wolf who thinks he's going down, which is why I asked you about it.
I said I find him more likely to flip wolf than anyone else, said we need to pick between Rhand or shadow unless someone is going to make a persuasive case otherwise, then moved my vote to shadow because I'm a waffly ***** who is afraid of lunching the wrong person and second guesses his reads every time he interacts with someone he thinks is a wolf, but there's no room for that in the game of Mafia so I have to suck it up and lunch someone anyway.
But I find myself wondering if we're even reading the same game. Maybe it's me and my reads are trash. Always possible. Hell, Vaimes has Rhand as least likely LnGrrr partner and I still have no idea how he got that over Grape. But I've not been presented with persuasive evidence to the contrary. Merely saying "I don't think Rhand and LnGr interacted like partners" isn't persuasive to me.
That is not to say I think Rhand is a lock wolf, or even to say that Rodemy is a villager, it's just to say that I do not understand the basis by which you are clearing Rhand over Rodemy. I don't understand why you are dismissing the Will thing and holding strongly to the idea that Rhand can't be his partner. I've read the posts you made about it and their posts together over and over and I apparently don't understand the principles by which you arrived at the reads you have.
You very clearly believe them. If you were a wolf you wouldn't be pushing me, for starters, because I'm an easy kill over you due to my claim and post count, and you need as many of those as you can get if you're a wolf. Unless you just really think I'm mislunchable but that's not... that's not a thing.
Your twinges of paranoia towards me match up almost exactly with when I start to feel uncomfortable about the direction of the thread which means you also feel, instinctively or otherwise, that weird "something is wrong" vibe I've been getting.
The difference is, when I get it I try to reassess and then arrive back at the same PoE I had when I started because I don't have enough info and I still think my townreads are ~mostly good (no one has even tried to convince me otherwise), and when you get it you start pushing random teams with me in them because you apparently think me powerwolfing resolves the weirdness. Not sure how or why, apparently it just does.
I get these holistic negative space reads you're representing on me. I have that exact read on shadow where the game just makes sense if he's a wolf who tried to bus LnGrrr and it backfired, but he isn't reeeally acting like a wolf. Especially not like his wolf self. Which leaves me with like, five days to figure out what the hell is going on in this game because you're right, none of it does make sense. Everyone has reasons to not be a wolf with LnGrrr except for people who are almost never wolves (Wisp) and people I don't think are playing like wolves (Rhand, shadow) which means some of those dichotomies are bad or shadow is pulling the wool over my eyes again, but if the dichotomies are bad one of them is probably being pushed by the third wolf. I just don't know who it is, but it certainly feels like it might be the Rhand/LnGrrr dichotomy that is the bad one because I straight up do not understand it.
• Why vote Rhand in 111 and then soften it with "I'm going to have some fun with Rhand"? That feels like you never really intended to pressure Rhand (and I think Rhand would have picked up on that). Why use the "convince" language in your question to Tubba?
- That was not meant to be softening it, that's how I talk to people I am engaging.
- Tubba said "not yet", to me the yet implied that he was waiting for something or a bar to pass for him to be convinced. I was curious.
• 148 question to LnG doesn't feel hard-hitting, but not exactly a soft lob, either.
- Yeah, I was more baffled than anything.
• LnG's response to you in 150 in context feels like he's backing off, trying to avoid antagonizing you. +town to you
- Thank you.
• What was your point to LnG in 169? You asked him if your gusto was a scum tell, he said he didn't think gusto was a tell either way, you said he was taking Rhand over you (140) because of your pep...but he actually said it was for your "bombast and overall pomposity". Also, it feels like you're again announcing that you're going to poke Rhand but without any teeth to the threat. In fact...looking at your iso, you talk about poking Rhand 3-4 times early game, but I don't feel like you actually take any steps in that direction. At least, not before you jump off Rhand and onto me in 231. Show me how you were poking/pressuring Rhand prior to 231 (with focus, not just "oh, Rhand is scum")?
- Sometimes I am too cheeky with my language. I was referring to his statement which I instead chose to call pep. I saw something wrong with his taking Rhand over me and citing something that to me was a very obvious null tell given my history. As for Rhand, the announcement of the poke was the poke. Maybe that's a bit meta for my own good but it was meant to be like "Hi, do I have your attention yet?" Rhand didn't much ping me after that.
• Your 191 where you say "hey, I don't like Rhand or LnG, so join me on Rhand" feels so much like the kind of thing I'd do as scum if I wanted to create some distance between me and buddy!LnG without actually pushing LnG. I fully acknowledge that you are not me, and your methods are not mine, but it's still pinging.
- In reality I was pushing an agenda to see how everything looked with me doing it. I can see because Lng was scum how this would look a bit odd but his alignment to my scheme was coincidence.
• What did you think of Shin's observation on you at the end of 192?
- Really confusing, on second look. At first I thought he meant I was an easy mislynch but looking back now maybe he meant the most prized mislynch for a scum to create if they can. Which is apparently true.
• 197 you say LnG isn't great for trying to use your pomp against you.
- Accurate
• What question of LnG's to me came off as softball?
- I'll get back to you when I re-read again.
Same thing for Silver. I'll do more review and ponder things.
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No, my point was that Chris suspecting me reduces the chances of me being nightkilled and his point is that he suspected tom and tom was nightkilled anyway. It's data that goes against my theory that someone being suspected by Chris reduces the chance of them being killed.
Though I suppose that was also before the LnGrrr flip cleared tom, I'd have to go back and see if Chris actually thought tom and LnGrrr we're partners because that's a pretty significant difference lol.
That’s now how any of this works tho. If you are scum it doesn’t matter if you “suspect” someone or not.
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No, my point was that Chris suspecting me reduces the chances of me being nightkilled and his point is that he suspected tom and tom was nightkilled anyway. It's data that goes against my theory that someone being suspected by Chris reduces the chance of them being killed.
Though I suppose that was also before the LnGrrr flip cleared tom, I'd have to go back and see if Chris actually thought tom and LnGrrr we're partners because that's a pretty significant difference lol.
That’s now how any of this works tho. If you are scum it doesn’t matter if you “suspect” someone or not.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. That Chris is a wolf? I think he's a villager, so. Why do you think he's a wolf?
• I did a quick scan, but I don't quite see why Tom is asking if he caught you in 211; can you clarify that for me? I know you had just voted Rhand, but I didn't see any recent comments from you that felt like you were maybe leaning LnG but swerved to Rhand?
If you reread my #210 you'll see I was only going to be around for an hour at (9:40 PM EDT). Tom was asking if I was still here at (10:53 PM EDT), which was a bit more than an hour after. Pretty sure he was just asking if I was still there.
Why did you think this was related to my Rhand vote or why it might indicate that tom thought I was going to vote LnGrrr?
Lol. For some reason I thought Tom was saying he "caught" you in a mistake. As in, he saw something off in your vote on Rhand (hence asking why not vote LnG). Sorry.
Quote from Silver »
So... There's this severe mindset mismatch between the mindset you're representing ("I recently compiled my mafia stats, and I've played a few games over on 451, which is a fairly different mafia experience, and it's caused me to be rather introspective.") and the post you made ("This isn't quite true. If it's well into the game and it's not obvious that I'm town, I'm always scum. At this point in the game, I'm actually always town."). I can't really figure out how the mindset of "being introspective" is connected to making the joke or why you wouldn't just own it as a joke. I suppose the answer could be "it really wasn't a joke" but like. It's so obviously a joke I can't see how it could have been serious.
And like, hypothetically speaking, if wolf!Cantrip makes a joke like that and a villager says "man, you look like you put a lot of thought into that really serious post", he maybe says to himself "Hmm, I wonder if I can pocket this villager by congratulating him on seeing that I thought about it a lot but I need to justify why I was thinking deeply about it, because I totally wasn't, and I don't want anyone to know that so I'll talk about how I've been playing on other sites here". I'm probably explaining that badly but that's kind of what it felt like.
At the time I was more focused on Ruma and since then I haven't really had any other good reason to think you're a wolf. Well, except for this post you just made, because it feels a lot like busy work but we'll see where you go with it, I suppose.
I mean...yes it was tongue in cheek, but actually no, it wasn't a joke. A big part of that introspection was the realization that when I'm town, my biggest contribution almost always seems to be being able to make it obvious to others that I'm town (as opposed to solving, hunting, etc). I've also been told from multiple players that I'm difficult to catch as scum, especially on behavior, and that they have to rely on a combination of PoE and interactions with (mostly from) my buddies to catch me. So...D1 I'm ALWAYS town (no PoE, no flips, so no interactions to analyze). No joke.
As for your hypothetical...sure? I could see scum!me doing something like that, probably. I think I'm pretty good at pocketing.
Mildly tilted at my efforts being labeled busy work, but whatevs.
No, my point was that Chris suspecting me reduces the chances of me being nightkilled and his point is that he suspected tom and tom was nightkilled anyway. It's data that goes against my theory that someone being suspected by Chris reduces the chance of them being killed.
Though I suppose that was also before the LnGrrr flip cleared tom, I'd have to go back and see if Chris actually thought tom and LnGrrr we're partners because that's a pretty significant difference lol.
Yeah, I get that he identified a counter-example, but it's not a GOOD counterexample. I would think it would only be convincing to you if you thought there was some correlation between Chris's voiced suspicion and Tom dying. *I* saw Chris's response and rolled my eyes, because it felt like Robert De Niro going "I have nipples, Greg; could you milk me?" Yes, it's a counterexample, but there's no logic behind it; it feels empty. But then you were like, Good point! o.O
I like the effort you put into 1364, btw. There's a lot of conviction there, even if it doesn't feel like you take any hard stances in it. On your comment about reassessing then arriving back where you started: have you considered the possibility that this is happening because you're super tunneled on some/all of your perceptions of the game? Do you tend to tunnel, or not so much?
Chris, first off, thanks for responding to every single bullet point I gave, but that's not really necessary for the comments unless you feel like you need to clarify/correct my perspective. Second, here's what I see from you on Rhand early game:
111 you vote Rhand for his reasoning on Grape.
115 you get SUPER HYPED at the possibility that Rhand really is scum.
131 you ask why he voted Shadow and not you, then vaguely threaten him.
138 you indicate that it doesn't make sense for Rhand to vote Shadow when he suspected you first.
169 you say Rhand's not being genuine and threaten to poke him again to see if he breaks.
186 you clarify the zeal = righteous zeal to Tom's question.
191 you tell Silver you have no warm fuzzies for LnG or Rhand and encourage him to vote Rhand.
220 you unalign Rhand and Shin.
224 you unalign Rhand and Shadow, then say "Hm hm hm. Oh believe you me Rhand I am poking you just the way I want to. You are totes poked right now." and ask him about Riku.
There are a few questions there, but nothing with any bite. So I get where Rhand was coming from when he said something like "your poking stick is broken".
But...your explanation in 231 sounds like a rational progression, so probably not as indicative as I initially thought.
You say you were pushing an agenda when you made 191; can you explain that to me a little more?
I do tend to confbias a bit but I wouldn't really say I'm tunnely. When I have a strong read I'll tunnel it to death but generally I tunnel worldviews/game states rather than individual wolf reads. Which is why my vote bounces around my PoE so much, I guess, because a lot of times just posting things that sound like they make sense makes me want to move it somewhere else but it doesn't really change my town reads. Or something like that anyway.
I'm not sure how I feel about you saying it was tongue in cheek but not a joke and also agreeing that if you were a wolf you might do that lol. It's a bit like... the thing I would expect you to do as a wolf because you're trying to establish plausible deniability while also making me feel like I have you figured out or something. It sort of fits that same wolf mold I already had you in of being reasonable/agreeable.
Like, I can kind of see you going through your old games and playing with new people in a new meta and realizing things about your own play you didn't know before but I can't really see how that post isn't a joke even with that context. I'm sure you do believe that you shouldn't be lunched on D1 and that if you're a wolf it will become apparent "later" because you won't be obviously town but the wording and posts immediately preceding it make it feel like a joke based on your self-meta and not just self-meta as you seem to be implying. Or something, I'm probably explaining this badly still.
tbh I dont understand any of what Silver and Chris are trying to say, a lot of words
Quote from Silver »
No, my point was that Chris suspecting me reduces the chances of me being nightkilled and his point is that he suspected tom and tom was nightkilled anyway. It's data that goes against my theory that someone being suspected by Chris reduces the chance of them being killed.
Though I suppose that was also before the LnGrrr flip cleared tom, I'd have to go back and see if Chris actually thought tom and LnGrrr we're partners because that's a pretty significant difference lol.
lmao, I gotta go with Rodemy and say, what is this? What's the conclusion here?
tbh I dont understand any of what Silver and Chris are trying to say, a lot of words
Quote from Silver »
No, my point was that Chris suspecting me reduces the chances of me being nightkilled and his point is that he suspected tom and tom was nightkilled anyway. It's data that goes against my theory that someone being suspected by Chris reduces the chance of them being killed.
Though I suppose that was also before the LnGrrr flip cleared tom, I'd have to go back and see if Chris actually thought tom and LnGrrr we're partners because that's a pretty significant difference lol.
lmao, I gotta go with Rodemy and say, what is this? What's the conclusion here?
There isn't really a conclusion rofl.
I made a comment about how it's weird for Chris to keep voicing suspicion of me if he wants me to die.
He said he suspected tom and tom died died anyway.
I said "good point, but still weird"
Cantrip tried to nitpick me for saying "good point" because he doesn't think it actually is a good point. Or something.
I said "well, it shows that wolves this game are willing to night kill someone Chris is pushing... but LnGrrr's flip basically cleared tom so I'm not sure the circumstances really are the same, so maybe you're right, I guess."
And now we're here.
Talk to me about Rhand and shadow, Wisp. Do you think they're both villagers, or what?
All of my Mafia minutes yesterday (few as they were) went to my other game. I’ll be able to address some of the questions for me here in the next few hours. This one real quick though:
I do tend to confbias a bit but I wouldn't really say I'm tunnely. When I have a strong read I'll tunnel it to death but generally I tunnel worldviews/game states rather than individual wolf reads. Which is why my vote bounces around my PoE so much, I guess, because a lot of times just posting things that sound like they make sense makes me want to move it somewhere else but it doesn't really change my town reads. Or something like that anyway.
I'm not sure how I feel about you saying it was tongue in cheek but not a joke and also agreeing that if you were a wolf you might do that lol. It's a bit like... the thing I would expect you to do as a wolf because you're trying to establish plausible deniability while also making me feel like I have you figured out or something. It sort of fits that same wolf mold I already had you in of being reasonable/agreeable.
Like, I can kind of see you going through your old games and playing with new people in a new meta and realizing things about your own play you didn't know before but I can't really see how that post isn't a joke even with that context. I'm sure you do believe that you shouldn't be lunched on D1 and that if you're a wolf it will become apparent "later" because you won't be obviously town but the wording and posts immediately preceding it make it feel like a joke based on your self-meta and not just self-meta as you seem to be implying. Or something, I'm probably explaining this badly still.
I get where you're coming from. I don't know that I'm accurately communicating my methodology behind that post. The delivery and the overgeneralization was tongue-in-cheek, sorta jokey. The content was 100% serious.
I don't think it's AI, though. That's probably another reason why I was surprised by Riku liking it. I definitely could make that post as town or as wolf.
I guess, bottom line: I don't expect you to townread me for it, but I also hope you're looking at me holistically and not tunneling because of posts I could make as either alignment. *shrug*
Sorry lol. Forgot you were voting him because it's been there for so long.
@Cantrip:
re: tunneling, I mean, you're in the PoE so you're one of the handful of people I'm actively trying to read as a wolf and see who is the worst.
re: "the point", no, I don't really see how you thought me thinking that was a good point could be AI. If you wouldn't mind connecting the dots for me?
re: tunneling, I mean, you're in the PoE so you're one of the handful of people I'm actively trying to read as a wolf and see who is the worst.
Fair enough, I guess.
Quote from Silver »
re: "the point", no, I don't really see how you thought me thinking that was a good point could be AI. If you wouldn't mind connecting the dots for me?
This is mostly academic, because the series of posts I'm rereading right now pretty strongly point to you being town, but if Chris makes a statement that doesn't really make sense to me, and then you say that it's a good point, then I feel like I'm left with three options:
1) It really was a good point and I'm not insightful enough to understand (two other players have questioned it, though, so at least I'm not crazy by myself).
2) You're town and really think that Chris's response was good.
3) You're scum and trying to pocket Chris by agreeing with him, agreeing with him because he's your buddy, or agreeing overly hasty just to seem agreeable.
I obviously don't think 1) is true, and if Chris's response wasn't a good point and I think you're intelligent, then that makes 2) less likely.
But, like I said, sorta academic, since I'm pretty solidly coming to a town read on you.
Oh, Wisp, I said "Don't" because I fully expected you to come in here and vote me after I flipped scum in Phantom, possibly just on principle. I'm surprised (in a good way) that you didn't.
You forgot "(4) His statement was trivially true and I didn't care to argue that point specifically, so I agreed with it because it wasn't all that important to the point I was making."
I often concede trivial positions that I don't actually care about to focus on the point; he is trivially correct that tom was killed and that he was suspecting tom. Yes there are mitigating factors (I claimed, tom did not, tom was spewed by the LnGrrr flip, etc.) but it wasn't really important to the point I was making. It's weird either way that he wants me to get night killed and keeps saying he thinks I'm power wolfing.
I don't even know why I'm still talking about this. Yes it wasn't a good point but saying "that's... actually a good point but" doesn't indicate I've reversed my position about it being weird.
Like, whether it was a good point or not isn't something I was actively thinking about at the time because it was orthogonal to the point I was actually trying to make, and when you said it isn't really a good point I realized you were right but I still don't really care because it still doesn't affect the point I actually cared about.
Which, to reiterate, is that Chris is simultaneously representing me as someone he wants the wolves to night kill and as someone he thinks is a good lunch. If he actually wanted to increase the chances of me being night killed he would be representing a stronger town read than the one he (doesn't) have because, as a claimed PR, high posting consensus villager I'm the number one kill target, but the more doubt he sows about my alignment the less likely I am to be killed.
I still don't think wolf!Chris tries to push me because he actually needs me as a plausible kill over him, but yeah, it's still ~weird~.
And that's ~all the words I have to say on the subject.
Ok, here are some more notes, but there's a tl;dr at the bottom because I think I actually found a smoking gun.
Vaimes,
(more Shin posts)
• 279 Shin quotes Silver giving reasons to vote Rhand over LnG and says "I kinda feel like voting Rhand is a cop out, no?" Calls Rhand and Chris town. There'd be very little scum motivation to counter a town read that favored a buddy. So +town to Vaimes (unless, possibly, he's buddies with Rhand...or maybe with Silver).
• 282 I feel like this confusion from Shin is genuine, probably not buddies with Chris?
• 283 Vames replaces in.
• 286 Why did you feel the need to post the player list?
• 290 How has your knowledge of Chris's weaknesses benefited you this game?
• 338 Says he should have a read on Shadow and LnG by now, says LnG pings null rather than scummy, so LnG can live. Hedges on Shadow.
Rhand,
• 301 Tom defends you again. And again in 523.
• 524 you say you iso'd LnG. Would prefer Grape over LnG, but not opposed to LnG, citing his lack of townie conviction and possible buddies with Grape due to softball questions.
• 550 you put LnG at L-2, but observe that he hasn't been on in 5 days.
• [more in this post range, see out-take below]
Silver,
• 328 you ask Tom why LnG is the better lunch.
• 348 Pretty sure you're town for the naked vote push on LnG here.
• Not as fond of the sheeping reasons for Rhand/LnG in 374, nor the conflation of the two as on the same level, though.
• I like in 425 that you seem to try to shake Shadow and Grape out of their aside and get them back on track.
• 442 you encourage the Rhand wagon to abandon ship or push harder; I think unless Rhand is also scum you are town for this.
• 485 you give Wisp some space to catch up and shift your vote to LnG in the meantime. Another good look for you.
• 497 would be pretty brazen of you if you're buddies with LnG.
• 500 I like your response to Chris here, specifically that you're continuing to try and engage/explain rather than dismissing.
Grape,
• In context, I think you're right to question that first line of LnG's 331. I think it heightens the possibility of one of Rhand or Rod being scum.
• 391 you forgot LnG was in the game.
Shadow,
• 353 Follows Silver onto LnG with his own near naked vote.
• 433 encourages LnG to play the game.
• 440 I like that when it's coming down to brass tacks, you re-assert pushing LnG over Rhand. Possible you're scum reading the writing on the wall, but I don't think that's the case.
• 441 I also like that you follow up with your personal reasons for suspecting him.
• Why did you add the "(@Mafia)" to the end of 548?
Tubba,
• 359 I tilted my head a little at you saying that LnG gave your rb/jk comment a second look and moved on. I see him giving you some townies in 265, but not really any scrutiny on the rb/jk comment; can you point out where you saw that?
Rodemy,
(Posts from/about Will)
• 427 Feels like he's just reiterating a lot of what's been observed/said about LnG. Very self-conscious post. Finds LnG questionable but doesn't vote.
Wisp
• 487 you join the LnG wagon, but actually state reasons for doing so.
• 527 you say you're at Grape/Grr/Silver.
• 565 you're quite confident on LnG being mafia.
Sequence of posts that feels like I should be able to glean something from it:
551 Chris gets really annoyed (or affects it) that the leading wagon is on lurking LnG and pushes toward Silver.
552 Chris singles Rhand out for putting LnG into claim range when Rhand knew LnG hadn't been on for 5 days.
553 Rhand says there's no interest in Silver and he thinks LnG is best option.
554 Chris MAKES A DEAL with Rhand, says Rhand should vote Silver and Chris will spend his weekend presenting the case on Silver.
555 Rhand says he doesn't really want to lunch LnG, but instead Grape; encourages Chris to look at Grape.
556 Chris says "vote Silver now and I'll iso Grape on the spot".
557 Rhand votes Silver.
558 Rhand says he skimmed Silver's iso, gives a few small reasons, says Silver is probably scum but so is Grape.
559 Chris says he's isoing Grape.
560 Chris presents a rather persuasive case for Grape being town, encourages Rhand to stay on Silver.
I planned on postulating on this, but then I read 594 and anything I can pull from here just pales in comparison, so I'll plan on coming back to this later.
Chris,
• 272 you chuckle at a LnG-Grape interaction (but call it not AI), then say that you think LnG and Grape are unaligned based on LnG's analysis of Grape's play. I think this is +town to you unless the team is exactly LnG/you/Grape. Buddies don't usually go out of their way to unalign each other from townies. Did you ever clarify which of LnG's posts gave you that impression?
• 431, like Will's 427, also feels like a restatement of the game state with a little more elaboration, but you don't vote LnG.
• 436 you say there's no reason to put LnG at 4 votes vs 3, why not?
• 453 I don't like that you try to start a new wagon (Silver) when LnG's just starting to get attention, especially after demurring on voting LnG despite suspecting him.
• 488 you push to lunch Silver over LnG despite thinking they're buddies. If Silver flips town, that doesn't look good.
• 551 you again push away from LnG (this time using his inactivity as a reason) and push toward Silver.
• 552 is more vociferous pushing away from inactive LHF (LnG).
• [more in this post range, see out-take below]
• 562 you ask what the case on LnG is, exactly, and say you worry about "group think" (which, if I interpret it correctly, you're saying you're concerned about group consensus creating conf bias?).
• 563 If you weren't you, what would you think of this post, Chris, now that LnG has flipped scum?
• 571 you use AtE to push away from LnG's wagon.
• 594 is really weird. You use Rhand's willingness to vote Silver as rationale to town Rhand (which I can actually see), but then you say "So, in a world where you are town which I can buy given how people have trembled at this argument:" then list your town reads and say "You [Silver] are town because I just stipulated that", then list a PoE of LW/Tom/Tubba/Lng/Will/Vaimes, then unvote Silver and vote his scumread of Wisp. Like...
O.o
Let me say that again, slightly differently.
o.O
You had ZERO rationale for towning Silver there. You had been suspecting him (and voting him), you even said a few posts previous that if he could guess why you thought Rhand was town, he could be lock town, too. Five minutes later he posted and said he didn't see it initially, but asked you to give him a bit since he just stepped away from the computer. 8 minutes later, not even giving him the chance to try, you town him....because you said--in the same post--that he was town??? ??? ???????
What?
Silver doesn't seem to think anything is odd from this and votes Wisp (I'm guessing he was just happy to finally have some traction there). And no one else seems to notice, probably because Wisp claims out of nowhere and the attention shifts there. 604 you (Chris) vote Tom. 607 Silver goes back to LnG, which is a REALLY good look for him, imo.
But you? No, absolutely not. I thought I had caught you when we had that early game spat, and I should have stuck to my freakin' guns.
Vote: Sir Chris
If I had two votes, you'd have both of them. I tip my hat to you on (another) masterful piece of manipulation. I haven't reread too much further past that, but I'm pretty sure no one even ever questioned that really horrible progression.
But you're scum. I'm almost certain of it now.
I look forward to seeing how you try to wriggle out of this one, but fair warning: 23 hours from now I'm going to be heavily restricted in my available time and only able to post from mobile for most the weekend, possibly through deadline. I will keep up on reading current events, but if you want to have any meaningful in-depth discussions, the sooner the better.
To anybody who looks at my words above on Chris and doesn't feel persuaded: PLEASE go reread 550-600 with a critical eye. I simply cannot believe that expert mafia player Chris pushes away from scum!LnG because he thinks town are conf biasing on an inactive slot, strongly pressures Silver (to the point of manipulating Rhand into voting him), offers Silver a chance to be "lock-town", doesn't give Silver the chance to do so even though Silver asked for time, then pulls a 180 and declares Silver town and votes Silver's primary suspect, then when that suspect claims a self-resolving town claim, pushes (again away from LnG) onto town!Tom.
Just....no. This is expert skill Chris is demonstrating, but it's scum expert skill.
First off, thank you for thinking I am very good at mafia I genuinely appreciate that. I love when I see moments like this where someone is genuinely excited to play mafia. It's awesome. Like you went hard here, and that's to be applauded and respected. Seriously, I'd play mafia with you any day of the week. God, how can anyone even come close to scum reading you? Totally ridiculous.
Secondly I can see why 594 is confusing because I wasn't very clear in my thinking process there. So read it back as I explain: I was reading the mood of the room and how no one was really wanting to mix it up between Silver and myself and it led me to believe that it was because it was a town on town argument. I said everyone was trembling at it and what that was meant was me and silver were going at it by ourselves for awhile and when two town heavy hitters go blow for blow it tends to leave a vacuum where scum would rather just not get caught in the middle. I thought that scum would have interceded a bit more if I was hammering away at a member of scum and based off that I was willing to let the matter go then and there and to prod LW.
As for 563...
Pretty null, seems like at the time I was hyped up. In fact with knowledge of Lng being scum for sure a town lean on myself because what's the point of fighting for a scum buddy who isn't posting? It is such a waste of time. Scum Chris just goes in on the bus that he already crumbed earlier with his glances at Lng instead of trying to save someone not there. It isn't expert play at all from a scum Chris to crumb that he has his eye on Lng only to waste energy and resources fighting an afk player's lynch. The psychology employed by town chris is "I don't know what Lng's alignment is, but the cold acceptance of it is not in town's best interest (which I will argue right this second is still a good decision btw, Lng being scum is results based and not indicative of all worlds. I would say that finding scum based off that method before I spiced up the day has low equity. I stick with that. As I said in 563, it cost town nothing to provoke more content, we still got our scum at the end of the day.
571 you say push away from Lng wagon, I say quite more movement in the latter stages of the day. Yes I could have been hamfisted in my defense of bad scum player Lng, but nothing in my award winning length history suggests I'd care to do so there. Tom knew this and he died. I don't kill Tom night 1 if I have him pocketed. Actually I probably kill you and go "weird kill"
I think, if my read is right, I am playing one level above you right now and you are confused. You see me defending Lng and think "He is defending Lng" but I was defending LNG because the game state was bothering me. I see it as "there's no harm in pushing things and seeing where they can go" and you see "He was trying to save Lng as scum" which is no value for me to do as scum. I will repeat this a lot: there is no value in my wasting so much energy trying to save a non-poster.
Love the post though.
Private Mod Note
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2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang) 2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer 2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator) 2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia 2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational 2015 - Best Town Player 2015 - Best Mafia Player 2015 - Best Overall Player
First off, thank you for thinking I am very good at mafia I genuinely appreciate that. I love when I see moments like this where someone is genuinely excited to play mafia. It's awesome. Like you went hard here, and that's to be applauded and respected. Seriously, I'd play mafia with you any day of the week. God, how can anyone even come close to scum reading you? Totally ridiculous.
To return the compliment: I'm absolutely stoked to be playing mafia with you, and having a lot of fun, but I'm even more stoked to think I've caught you.
Because I'm still riding that high, and admittedly probably in a tunnel (hopefully one that leads to dead scum), I want to point out that this is pretty standard textbook appeasing the attacker. You're complimenting AND declaring me obv!town. Does scum!Chris resort to these methods? Not sure, more on that below. And I'll be sure to revisit this post later to see if time provides different perspective.
Quote from Chris »
Secondly I can see why 594 is confusing because I wasn't very clear in my thinking process there. So read it back as I explain: I was reading the mood of the room and how no one was really wanting to mix it up between Silver and myself and it led me to believe that it was because it was a town on town argument. I said everyone was trembling at it and what that was meant was me and silver were going at it by ourselves for awhile and when two town heavy hitters go blow for blow it tends to leave a vacuum where scum would rather just not get caught in the middle. I thought that scum would have interceded a bit more if I was hammering away at a member of scum and based off that I was willing to let the matter go then and there and to prod LW.
I can see that possibility, I suppose. I can't remember who made the point at the time, but I pose a similar question: if you and Silver are both town, then why weren't there more nibbles at Silver (scum choosing to vote him based on your push)? I think it's just as possible that town wasn't buying what you were selling, and your buddies (well, buddy, since LnG was afk) certainly weren't going to jump on that wagon without some town support. Actually, more significantly, the entirety of the exchange between you and Silver was ~6 hours (maybe 7.5 if I look at your opening volley in 549). 7.5 hours. On this site. In perspective, since 7.5 hours ago, five players have posted. And in those specific 7.5 hours, you, Rhand, Shadow, Silver, and Wisp posted. Hmm. Five players. So why would you argue that the whole thread was held in thrall, popcorning your clash with Silver, on the edge of their seats with anticipation, as opposed to...just not a lot of players being around? And I don't think you're that oblivious to the habits of game threads on this site. So...nah, not buying that your 180 was sincere.
Quote from Chris »
As for 563...
Pretty null, seems like at the time I was hyped up. In fact with knowledge of Lng being scum for sure a town lean on myself because what's the point of fighting for a scum buddy who isn't posting? It is such a waste of time. Scum Chris just goes in on the bus that he already crumbed earlier with his glances at Lng instead of trying to save someone not there. It isn't expert play at all from a scum Chris to crumb that he has his eye on Lng only to waste energy and resources fighting an afk player's lynch. The psychology employed by town chris is "I don't know what Lng's alignment is, but the cold acceptance of it is not in town's best interest (which I will argue right this second is still a good decision btw, Lng being scum is results based and not indicative of all worlds. I would say that finding scum based off that method before I spiced up the day has low equity. I stick with that. As I said in 563, it cost town nothing to provoke more content, we still got our scum at the end of the day.
Further, I will say with no doubt in my heart towns who only about the next step in front of them don't tend to do well. Pressing Silver, a wolf who does not have much experience, does us little harm if he is town. Do you not think I can ferret out his alignment correctly, Shadow? So little faith in little old me? As I told others if they are town and I turn my gaze to them they based on over a decade of playing have very little to fear from me.
I love the resistance to Silver. It's really getting these old bones jittering with excitement. Oh my, what a beautiful game mafia is.
Oppose away, let's see if I've still got some of my magic left.
So you start off with a fearmongering appeal to intelligence (towns...next step...don't...do well), but I like that you chose to focus on you pushing away from LnG. Yes, there are plenty of instances of that in your iso, which, while not a great look for you, isn't hard evidence because, hey, town can be wrong, right? Right, so you pushing away from LnG in and of itself isn't necessarily bad (*I* pushed away from LnG a few times).
No, my point was that middle line about the resistance to Silver. You had no problem tossing that out there as though it was indicative that Silver was scum, but you were totally blind that the exact same thing was happening with LnG...and that you were one of the ones creating that resistance? Hypocrite much? "But Cantrip," I can hear you say, "why would a player of my caliber openly take that avenue of attack while simultaneously employing it?" Because I think you know that one of the best places to hide is right in plain sight (also see below).
Quote from Chris »
571 you say push away from Lng wagon, I say quite more movement in the latter stages of the day. Yes I could have been hamfisted in my defense of bad scum player Lng, but nothing in my award winning length history suggests I'd care to do so there. Tom knew this and he died. I don't kill Tom night 1 if I have him pocketed. Actually I probably kill you and go "weird kill"
To address the smaller point first: Why would you kill me? You had me pretty strongly pocketed from 620 on; I'm pretty sure any suspicion I leveled at you after that point was minimal, and you'd already deflected a strong attack from me.
As for reasons to kill Tom: he's a strong analyst with conviction who isn't afraid to reassess prior Day reads in light of new information. And he was hard spewed town for his constant pressure on LnG. Are more reasons needed?
Quote from Chris »
I think, if my read is right, I am playing one level above you right now and you are confused. You see me defending Lng and think "He is defending Lng" but I was defending LNG because the game state was bothering me. I see it as "there's no harm in pushing things and seeing where they can go" and you see "He was trying to save Lng as scum" which is no value for me to do as scum. I will repeat this a lot: there is no value in my wasting so much energy trying to save a non-poster.
If you think I'm taking the 0-level read and running with it, you couldn't be further from the truth. Multiple players pushed away from LnG (either actively or passively in trying to lunch someone else). I know sometimes people reference 6th or 7th level reads, and I really don't think most reads ever go THAT deep. I think in general there are 0-level reads, 1st-level reads, and 2nd-level reads. And most of those levels are reliant on WIFOM. For instance, my 0-level would probably be "Chris pushed away from scum!LnG; he must be scum!" A 1st-level would be "Why would scum!Chris be so obvious in defending a buddy? That's crazy; he's probably town." I guess I'm more at a 2nd-level read of "Many scum would never defend a buddy there, but Chris is a strong player, able to argue his way out of probably anything beyond a cop check (and maybe even then); I don't think he'd blink twice at--artfully--pushing away from a buddy if he thought he could do so cleanly."
And you DID do so artfully. The first time I read that series of posts, it didn't even ping me. Felt very natural. But there were TOO many things that a skilled player shouldn't be doing, and since I know you're skilled, I think it's just more likely that you're powerwolfing scum.
I have to dash out the door, so I think this post has most of my thoughts, but I totally reserve the right to add an addendum.
Besides, to be frank, I'm not trying to convince YOU. That's an exercise in lunacy, especially with that silver tongue of yours, you little devil. I look forward when I get back to being able to read the thread (later tonight; I'm not going VLA yet) to hearing what others think.
Also please if you would try not to meta my niceness. I was just being nice.
I have a question for you: What would you say if I have a very strong and successful career out of bussing buddies? Also why does scum Chris throw suspicion on Tom at end of day for bussing Lng and then kill him that night? I feel like there's a lot of little flaws that add up to the right conclusion but you are too excited to see them.
Also one thing I will say for now, as I need to eat, is scum tend to be afraid of gong after non LHF. The reason why if silver is town (BUT PERHAPS HE IS NOT I have now decided!) scum stay out of the way is Silver can turn and eat them.
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ptap. Drunk and tired and facing a heatwave with people on board that are 70+ and organising a deviation because said heatwave caused our rivers to dry out.
Can’t read walls right now
Also please if you would try not to meta my niceness. I was just being nice.
...I'm not quite sure how to respond to this. Like...I feel like you got super serious there, and you're probably sincere, and I want to respect your wishes, but at the same time, it's Mafia. Being nice is a valid tactic to use (for either alignment, for various reasons), so it feels odd for you to request that I not meta it. Not trying to be conflicting or rude (and I did feel like you were being nice; I just didn't know if I could trust that all your being nice motives were pure), just feeling a little like you're Obi Wan telling me these aren't the droids I'm looking for.
Quote from Chris »
I have a question for you: What would you say if I have a very strong and successful career out of bussing buddies?
I'd say that if you're that aware of your meta, then you likely have no problem subverting it as it suits you.
Quote from Chris »
Also why does scum Chris throw suspicion on Tom at end of day for bussing Lng and then kill him that night?
Did...did you just WIFOM at me? I mean, I could think of a few reasons that might be true (trying to reduce the chance of Tom receiving protection N1, or possibly planning on leaving Tom to create WIFOM until you talked with your buddy and decided there was no way he'd ever be mislunched, just to name two), but at minimum, you could have done it just so you could point back to it and ask "why would I do this".
Quote from Chris »
I feel like there's a lot of little flaws that add up to the right conclusion but you are too excited to see them.
Also one thing I will say for now, as I need to eat, is scum tend to be afraid of gong after non LHF. The reason why if silver is town (BUT PERHAPS HE IS NOT I have now decided!) scum stay out of the way is Silver can turn and eat them.
Ok, sure, but...did you read the part about how that exchange with Silver didn't take very long and maybe everyone else was just busy until the focus shifted somewhere else?
Something you didn't address above: why did you dangle a "lock-town opportunity" in front of Silver and then not wait for him to actually look for it (when he specifically said he was going to)?
Well, I am playing a lot of 48/24 hour games and that's my natural habitat, it is actually valid when you say I didn't give time for it to develop. That's just a good point.
Also WIFOM is pretty easy to solve when dealing with someone on my level, actually. I have a track record of success as both alignments. Now true it is hard to tell those alignments apart but "is very good at catching scum" is actually true for both of my alignments. I tend to be the final boss of most scum teams, as it were. The fact that we are having this conversation is all the proof you can want that I am not scum, coupled with my good availability. Like GoT Scum Chris was having severe health problems and had to phone it in effort wise, but it is clearly not the case here.
Like sure scum Chris could have totally killed tom who just said he was town because LULZ and FUN but that is just saying it to say it, and not really likely. I have years of history that your only answer for is "well I guess you're subverting" but why would I need to subvert myself? Why aggressively town clear so many people? You see some things that are questionable, and I think objectively I don't mind any question you've been posing me, and you swim towards my scum and don't really take a moment to start from neutral. I get it, I'm really good and also exciting to engage with. I am also town so this is an awkward dance for me.
As for niceness, it is mostly because I tend to prefer logistical manipulation as either alignment over emotional manipulation. Nice/mean from me tends to be Chris' mood based but you can meta how you like, I suppose.
Like here's the thing. I can do anything as scum. Like, true statement I know my meta better than anyone here times five. I study myself, I write notes, I could do absolutely anything. However true that may be when we get to an argument where the only thing in its favor is "so you could SAY you would never" it gets a bit thin, you know? I don't think anyone ever scums it up with their entire strategy being "heh heh, but I never would do it that way!" or I guess maybe they do, I just think it is unlikely I'd do that because I'd much rather be getting credit for murdering my scumbuddy Lng day 2 than having this conversation with you right now. In defending Lng so much if I were his buddy I had to have known scrutiny was coming.
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Also I don't know if you want to give me credit for this but I am doing my best to respond to you ASAP when you post so you and I can have as much face time together as possible so that hopefully you change your mind on me and stab Rodemy with me
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Well, I am playing a lot of 48/24 hour games and that's my natural habitat, it is actually valid when you say I didn't give time for it to develop. That's just a good point.
Hmm. Ok. Why didn't you? Like...you "caught" what was obviously--for you--a strong reason to town read Rhand. And I can see a town mindset going "hey, if the guy I'm suspecting can find that, too, based on the kind of tell it is, that mindmeld might actually mean he's town"...but then you tromp all over that by just giving him town pants for no (apparent) reason. Why???
Quote from Chris »
Also WIFOM is pretty easy to solve when dealing with someone on my level, actually. I have a track record of success as both alignments. Now true it is hard to tell those alignments apart but "is very good at catching scum" is actually true for both of my alignments. I tend to be the final boss of most scum teams, as it were. The fact that we are having this conversation is all the proof you can want that I am not scum, coupled with my good availability. Like GoT Scum Chris was having severe health problems and had to phone it in effort wise, but it is clearly not the case here.
Ooooookay, but isn't a big part of why you had to phone it in because you had health problems? I felt like you probably would have gone full-on town demolishing in GoT if you hadn't been hindered by real life health issues. So are you attempting to handwave my suspicions with "I'm here, and engaging; doesn't that in and of itself mean I'm town"? Because I didn't equate your lack of presence and engagement in GoT with you being scum. BTW, I don't feel like you actually showed how to solve WIFOM when dealing with someone on your level; just said it was easy.
Quote from Chris »
Like sure scum Chris could have totally killed tom who just said he was town because LULZ and FUN but that is just saying it to say it, and not really likely. I have years of history that your only answer for is "well I guess you're subverting" but why would I need to subvert myself? Why aggressively town clear so many people? You see some things that are questionable, and I think objectively I don't mind any question you've been posing me, and you swim towards my scum and don't really take a moment to start from neutral. I get it, I'm really good and also exciting to engage with. I am also town so this is an awkward dance for me.
I gave two reasons in 1391 why you (or anyone) might have chosen to kill Tom, and I listed three possible reasons for you to throw suspicion on Tom and then kill him that Night, and none of those five reasons were "LULZ" or "FUN". The subversion comment was in response to you saying you have a history of bussing, and be honest: do you really ALWAYS bus? Do you NEVER white knight/powerwolf a buddy who's under fire? Do you expect me to take you at your word when you throw more wine at me and ask why you would need to subvert yourself? The ways of scum are strange and mysterious (as poor Wisp witnessed first hand in Phantom recently), and I'm not here to provide answers for why town!you or scum!you did or didn't do a thing. My job is to look at behaviors and try to decide whether they come from a town mindset or a scum mindset. I saw you HEAVILY suspect Silver, then in the span of just a few posts pull a 180 and vote with Silver, then push off onto town!Tom when Wisp fell through. All while doing a whole lot to dismantle LnG's wagon. Why would scum!you do that? That's WIFOM. You did it; I think it's more likely to come from scum than town.
Quote from Chris »
As for niceness, it is mostly because I tend to prefer logistical manipulation as either alignment over emotional manipulation. Nice/mean from me tends to be Chris' mood based but you can meta how you like, I suppose.
I can accept that you might feel that way, but--especially since I suspect you--it's near impossible to just accept niceties leveled at me and accept them at face value while the game is still being played.
Quote from Chris »
Like here's the thing. I can do anything as scum. Like, true statement I know my meta better than anyone here times five. I study myself, I write notes, I could do absolutely anything. However true that may be when we get to an argument where the only thing in its favor is "so you could SAY you would never" it gets a bit thin, you know? I don't think anyone ever scums it up with their entire strategy being "heh heh, but I never would do it that way!" or I guess maybe they do, I just think it is unlikely I'd do that because I'd much rather be getting credit for murdering my scumbuddy Lng day 2 than having this conversation with you right now. In defending Lng so much if I were his buddy I had to have known scrutiny was coming.
Huh. I've TOTALLY done things with the thought "no one would think scum would do this". Thanks for the self-meta; I'll tuck it away with the niceness as "interesting, but not convincing". Do you think you'd easily accept another player's self-meta as convincing if you suspected them?
And yes, you'd have known that scrutiny was coming. I've been in that situation myself as scum, and still made the choice that I knew would draw attention, believing that I could handle that attention/scrutiny. You're a strong player who's already voiced feeling like you can take on pretty much anyone in the thread; I have no problem believing that you would barely blink at powerwolfing while defending a buddy, even a buddy strongly likely to go down, and thinking you could handle any fallout.
Also I don't know if you want to give me credit for this but I am doing my best to respond to you ASAP when you post so you and I can have as much face time together as possible so that hopefully you change your mind on me and stab Rodemy with me
I give you credit for playing well and boldly, and for that I hugely respect you. It maaaaaybe moves the scumometer a little toward town, but just a little. I certainly appreciate you responding quickly (but I also understand that you have a life and a family, so I'm not going to start screaming for your lunch just because you don't respond in a timely manner). As I said, I'm not trying to convince YOU. The more back and forth the two of us have, though, the more grist there is for the others to chew on while they make their decision. (Those that actually read these posts. Wisp I'm looking at you.)
And stabbing Rod...blegh, deciding whether that's a good idea would require me to actually finish rereading the game, which I probably won't have time to do before deadline. Why do that when I have caught scum squirming under my thumb?
Ooooookay, but isn't a big part of why you had to phone it in because you had health problems? I felt like you probably would have gone full-on town demolishing in GoT if you hadn't been hindered by real life health issues. So are you attempting to handwave my suspicions with "I'm here, and engaging; doesn't that in and of itself mean I'm town"? Because I didn't equate your lack of presence and engagement in GoT with you being scum. BTW, I don't feel like you actually showed how to solve WIFOM when dealing with someone on your level; just said it was easy.
Ah no. I meant in GoT if I had been feeling better I would have bussed super hard. I almost did bus super hard but no one listened and I didn't have the energy to bus harder and not get listened to harder. Defending buddies is so 2014.
I'll respond more when I am awake, what I will say however is that what I am trying to demonstrate to you really isn't self meta, but rather game theory laid out. Like... you really think scum Chris votes for an EXTENSION for his scumbuddy who is missing? Like... god I know WIFOM my man but jesus you really think I'd do that in thread? I mean OK, anything is possible doctrine I suppose.
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So we're murdering a player who is gone and there has been almost no resistance to his lynch.
Boy am I nervous about this "safe, top tier play" being right. Extremely nervous. Maybe this is my paranoia speaking but... gosh this would be convenient for town if he is actually scum.
Hmm. Well, you weren't leading the charge, but as the second affirmative (first after KJ asked the question), you're maybe less likely to do that with a buddy, especially if your meta tends to bus. But who on this site is going to go, no, screw that guy that's been AFK; lunch him now!? So getting out in front of what will likely be a popular opinion, that you're unlikely to catch flak for later, and that maybe gives a buddy a chance to rally isn't a huge stretch.
Frankly, I feel like you shot yourself in the foot a little. Most of the responses you've given me amount to WIFOM afaict, and while I know I can't just wave that term around and think that it'll discredit every argument you make, every time you say "I really wouldn't do this as scum", I think "but he's been crowing all game about how good he is". So maybe you ARE playing one level above where I've been thinking, or even two, but I think where I'm really getting hung up isn't how your choices look bad in retrospect. It's that the way you're playing the game feels questionable, and if you're really the GREAT SIR CHRIS, SCUM-MURDERER AS TOWN AND EPIC DECEIVER OF TOWNIES WHEN SCUM, then the only way I can reconcile the choices and tactics you're resorting to is from you having a mindset of intentional subterfuge.
I want to reread this page in the morning and see how it looks after some rest. I'm off to bed.
It isn't Day 1 anymore, I need more than "has done enough stuff". What specifically makes both Rhand and shadow townier than Rodemy? More specifically, what makes them more likely to be a villager than Will who got chainsawed by LnGr?
'cause like. You can say "a wolf never says this" all you want but shadow is very good at doing things wolves don't do and still being a wolf. Pretty sure every game he's been a wolf in I went back after the post game and still couldn't figure out how he wasn't town. Maaaybe Arkham excepted but I think he got alignment checked and lunched because of that rather than because he was actually wolfy.
It's just about the only thing I think makes me want Rhand over him, feel like he'd be more engaged / having more fun if he was a wolf. Plus last time I actually thought he was wolf I was wrong and we lost off of it...
What do you make of Rhand telling everyone to follow me if he gets lunched?
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Silver,
• Did you ever explain what you were dancing around in 16? Oh. This was where you first noted lack of votes from Riku and Shin.
• 53 mild response to LnG comment.
• When you said "super cereal" in 56, what did you mean (if that wasn't a typo, what does that mean)? Also, in what way did my response to Shin make you "???"?
• So 63 is where you explain your suspicion on Riku for not voting in RVS. I realize there's a difference between Riku's lack of vote and Shin's lack of vote, but no follow up on Shin at this point?
• 87 is a big plus for you, imo, if Tubba is town. This doesn't feel like how scum address town. Possibly coaching, but doesn't feel like it.
• Ditto with the follow up in 90.
• Why did you say there were at least two wolves in [Rhand / LnGrrr / Ruma / Will / Tubba / Shadow] in 187? I see where your general thought process of "here's these people I don't want to lunch, so there have to be wolves in the remainder", but why TWO wolves?
• I did a quick scan, but I don't quite see why Tom is asking if he caught you in 211; can you clarify that for me? I know you had just voted Rhand, but I didn't see any recent comments from you that felt like you were maybe leaning LnG but swerved to Rhand?
• Your justification for voting Rhand over LnG in 213 isn't great, but doesn't feel forced.
Shadow,
• Your 25 still pings on re-read. The missed opportunities feels fakey, and your questions to Silver have a distancing feel about them. Can you point to you-Silver interactions this game that you feel are indicative of the two of you being unaligned?
• But I sorta like 28; not sure scum!you encourages town!Tom like that.
• 31 I can't tell if your annoyance at LnG's standard Rhand vote is real. I was going to say that it didn't seem to even register for you in Token Power Redux, but then I realized that was the first time they did that. Did you ever pick LnG's brain on the Grape question? Oh, yes, you clarified in 80.
• 32/33 is the juicy plomb, which felt really natural the first time through. I...know you can be that witty, so it's entirely possible that it was natural/unplanned.
• What did you get out of your question to LnG in 76?
• My gut response to your 80 is to call you out because you didn't "talk about LnG's Grape question", you just told LnG you wanted to pick his brain on it after Grape responded. Grape responded and you only got back to it in a roundabout way when Silver called you out on "sheeping" Tom, but... thinking about it, I'm not sure that series of events is scummy. I could see me forgetting to follow up immediately and then, when reminded by someone else's comment that essentially addressed my point, just agreeing and moving on. So no town points, but no scum points, either.
• In context, I think LnG's response to you here is less likely to be one given to a buddy. I think if you were scum with LnG he'd give a more confident/definite answer.
• I think your back and forth with Riku/Wisp makes you unaligned with that slot. Riku's initial expression of never reading you again felt a little out of nowhere, but I think there's some actual emotion there.
• Don't really like your Tom/barn vote on LnG in 145, especially with LnG not even commenting on it. Maybe that's just LnG trying to avoid conflict with you?
• I like that you call Shin out in 167 for his liking the LnG wagon but not voting, especially when you start that post off with an indication that you don't feel like lunching him. Good pressure on LnG.
Grape,
• I like your entrance in 27; feels playful, natural.
• 39 (response to LnG's meta question) would ping me if it didn't hit so close to some similar sentiments I've been feeling about myself.
• 42 Same with this one, although it could definitely be you premeditating excuses for being "wrong" in reads this game. Question to LnG at the end feels a little tacked on, but not completely unnatural.
• 44 is where LnG is weirded out by your play in GoT and he's not sure how to read you anymore. I'm not sure whether this is him setting you up to be perceived as being a different alignment from DitF/GoT, or if he's establishing interaction with a buddy. I think I'm leaning toward the latter based on him waffling and including the "probably not alignment indicative" element. Let me see how you respond to it, though.
• LnG's 61 response to Tom about Grape feels straightforward, serious to me. Do you feel like LnG "got real" in posts where he was talking about you this game?
• Your 73 feels a bit odd because you don't really call LnG out on how he's handling you until Tom points it out, and then you're like "hey, if I didn't know I'm not LnG's buddy, I'd think he was trying to theatre with a buddy". But that could just be because you didn't post in between.
• Why didn't you comment on Silver's observation on Riku's RVS habits in 71 when you made post #74?
• 175 is +town to you, imo. You say everyone is restrained except for Rhand and LnG, says it makes you feel better about Rhand, but you're not sure on LnG. It's a hedge (you Hedgelord, you), but if you're scum you're putting buddy!LnG in the spotlight and then hedging in a way that puts him in negative (or, at least, not positive) light.
• I like you naming LnG as a possible theoretical Despy target (second to Chris). LnG had a little scrutiny at this point, but nothing real serious (wagon was Tom and barnShadow, I believe), so only reason to say this if you're scum is some mild pre-emptive distancing. Possible, but doesn't feel that way.
• Something perverse in me wants to read into your comment about Tom never getting NK'd N1, but I'm pretty sure it's NAI.
• Were you saying in 249 that [Chris] not having a scum read on LnG did nothing for you, or [you] not having a scum read on LnG means that Chris's reasoning [for scumreading me] did nothing for you? I've read it several times and I still can't quite parse it.
Rhand,
• Entry feels standard RVS, routine vote on LnG, joking attitude.
• Question @ALL on 105: is it legit for Rhand to accuse Grape of open wolfing if Rhand doesn't know LnG's alignment? Rhand, your second comment feels like a reach, but then Grape clarifies what he meant, and instead of seeing his point, you take him literally and ask him where he used a phrase that he never used....doesn't feel like scum would be so tunneled to push Grape on that, and it doesn't feel like a buddy interaction, either. I think this makes you unaligned with Grape.
• Explain what you were doing with your question to Tubba in 108?
• Tom was somewhat defending you in 130. I want to keep an eye on how he treated you because I don't think you're the kind of player to perversely kill town who are townreading you. If he continues, less likely you're scum?
Vaimes,
(Shinichi posts)
• 46 is pretty low-impact/feels a little pockety toward Shadow.
• 47 is...wow. Not only does he say he likes LnG's slot, but saying "slot" feels a bit like distancing.
• 49 tinfoil breaking could stem from TMI (since Tom obviously wasn't scum)?
• 50 addendum question to LnG
• 51 LnG answers question, asks if Shin's vote on Tom is real.
• 66 Fairly abrasive/prickly non-answer to LnG's "is that Tom vote real" question.
• 70 is an oddly worded defense of Riku; assuming Wisp is town, it could be TMI. If it is (and Shin/Vaimes is scum), then encouragement of Silver to attack a town slot without contributing to it, makes me +town Silver.
• 160 he actually responds to LnG's question.
• 163-166 starts off unvoting Tom, then responds to several posts/asks questions of multiple players, but nothing with/to LnG. Highlights Tom and Shadow's vote on LnG and says the wagon looks nice/asks if he can join, but doesn't vote. ++scum
• 168 Tom was also townreading this slot for effort. But Vaimes replaced Shin before N1, and I don't think Vaimes would blink at the possibility of killing someone who was townreading him.
• 180 laughs off the question about his stated desire to be on LnG without actually voting LnG.
Sir Chris,
• Why vote Rhand in 111 and then soften it with "I'm going to have some fun with Rhand"? That feels like you never really intended to pressure Rhand (and I think Rhand would have picked up on that). Why use the "convince" language in your question to Tubba?
• 148 question to LnG doesn't feel hard-hitting, but not exactly a soft lob, either.
• LnG's response to you in 150 in context feels like he's backing off, trying to avoid antagonizing you. +town to you
• What was your point to LnG in 169? You asked him if your gusto was a scum tell, he said he didn't think gusto was a tell either way, you said he was taking Rhand over you (140) because of your pep...but he actually said it was for your "bombast and overall pomposity". Also, it feels like you're again announcing that you're going to poke Rhand but without any teeth to the threat. In fact...looking at your iso, you talk about poking Rhand 3-4 times early game, but I don't feel like you actually take any steps in that direction. At least, not before you jump off Rhand and onto me in 231. Show me how you were poking/pressuring Rhand prior to 231 (with focus, not just "oh, Rhand is scum")?
• Your 191 where you say "hey, I don't like Rhand or LnG, so join me on Rhand" feels so much like the kind of thing I'd do as scum if I wanted to create some distance between me and buddy!LnG without actually pushing LnG. I fully acknowledge that you are not me, and your methods are not mine, but it's still pinging.
• What did you think of Shin's observation on you at the end of 192?
• 197 you say LnG isn't great for trying to use your pomp against you.
• What question of LnG's to me came off as softball?
Tubba Fett,
• 157 is one of the few responses from you to LnG that I'm not as fond of, but given how LnG treated you in general, I still think you're highly likely to be town.
Posting these notes/questions even though I'm nowhere near finished/don't have conclusions because I want to generate some conversation before we run completely out of time.
I mean, if it's me / Rodemy you can go ahead and build off of those associatives because most of them would already exist and should tie us to LnGrrr if you're right.
Also you're doing a bad job of getting me night killed by leaving me on the table. If you want me to get night killed why voice paranoia now? If it's exactly me/Rodemy why not wait until Rodemy flips?
Thought the post explained pretty well but I can try to elaborate. It felt really strange that you made a joke, then Shinichi treated it like it was really serious and you put a lot of thought into it, and then you responded like you had meant it as a serious comment that wasn't a joke and you had actually thought about it a lot. "Super cereal" is just a silly way of saying "super serious".
I still think this whole interaction is really strange. If you're a wolf this is actually one of the better reasons for it because it felt like you... this is hard to explain. I'll put it at the bottom because it's kind of tangential to the question.
Didn't really feel the need to, Shinichi was posting pretty frequently and I thought the Ruma catch was really solid and wanted him first. Was mostly focused on getting people to take stances on that one because if he flipped wolf I thought it would be good info and then no one really wanted to talk about it, either.
"At least two" is just a hedge, I'm almost never 100% confident in the PoE. Just means that I thought the clears I had then were pretty good but there might be a deep wolf, etc.
If you reread my #210 you'll see I was only going to be around for an hour at (9:40 PM EDT). Tom was asking if I was still here at (10:53 PM EDT), which was a bit more than an hour after. Pretty sure he was just asking if I was still there.
Why did you think this was related to my Rhand vote or why it might indicate that tom thought I was going to vote LnGrrr?
So... There's this severe mindset mismatch between the mindset you're representing ("I recently compiled my mafia stats, and I've played a few games over on 451, which is a fairly different mafia experience, and it's caused me to be rather introspective.") and the post you made ("This isn't quite true. If it's well into the game and it's not obvious that I'm town, I'm always scum. At this point in the game, I'm actually always town."). I can't really figure out how the mindset of "being introspective" is connected to making the joke or why you wouldn't just own it as a joke. I suppose the answer could be "it really wasn't a joke" but like. It's so obviously a joke I can't see how it could have been serious.
And like, hypothetically speaking, if wolf!Cantrip makes a joke like that and a villager says "man, you look like you put a lot of thought into that really serious post", he maybe says to himself "Hmm, I wonder if I can pocket this villager by congratulating him on seeing that I thought about it a lot but I need to justify why I was thinking deeply about it, because I totally wasn't, and I don't want anyone to know that so I'll talk about how I've been playing on other sites here". I'm probably explaining that badly but that's kind of what it felt like.
At the time I was more focused on Ruma and since then I haven't really had any other good reason to think you're a wolf. Well, except for this post you just made, because it feels a lot like busy work but we'll see where you go with it, I suppose.
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Though I suppose that was also before the LnGrrr flip cleared tom, I'd have to go back and see if Chris actually thought tom and LnGrrr we're partners because that's a pretty significant difference lol.
LnGrrrR (3) - tomsloger (#144), Silvercrys3467 (#348), shadowlancerx (#353)
Sir Chris (1) - Cantripmancer (#230)
tomsloger (1) - LnGrrrR (#153)
Grapefruit21 (1) - Rhand (#268)
Will-98 (1) - Sir Chris (#332)
I think it is extreme wishful thinking that rhand and lngr are both scum tbh. I also like these votals for silver/rodemy because silver constantly goes back and forth on rhand and if lng could have gotten his act together I am sure he and will/rodemy would have pushed hard on Rhand.
Yeah liking my Rhand is town world bunches.
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Because it really sounds like you're starting from worlds where I'm a wolf and building backwards to justify that read.
Also if LnGr had been my partner I, like most of the people in this game, would have bussed him into the dirt. There's no point in helping you lunch my partner if I don't even get any cred for it.
(You know who did kind of bus him pretty hard if he's his partner? Shadow.)
Also your theory that all three wolves would have pushed Rhand hard to save a mostly wolf read goon is pretty ridiculous.
Okay so let's have a little talk about my world building. I don't think the way Lng interacted with Rhand is scum/scum, I just don't. I tend to be right when I say these things. My scum hunting can be hit or miss - I am man enough to admit that - but my town reading is far less prone to errors. So you pushing Rhand here when I think there is a lot of interaction and circumstances that point against it rubs me the wrong way. In fact I'd say I for sure don't have a solid scum read on you. I just keep looking over the game and going "man Silver as power wolf just kind of makes sense here." It's not that you've done anything to offend me, but I am putting together a puzzle and scum is a missing shape in the middle that's shaped very close to your shape and I go "Hrm."
Also um... Lng never really pushed Rhand. So.. not all three wolves would have been on him! Also eventually both of you abandoned ship so nothing hard about it I do agree.
No need to bus recklessly and early though. Town can never get mislynches back, after all.
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I'm neither voting Rhand nor campaigning for his lunch at this precise moment so I have no idea where you got this idea that I'm strongly pushing him. I've been reconsidering since he told people to follow me if he gets lunched which is kind of a ~weird~ look if he's a wolf who thinks he's going down, which is why I asked you about it.
I said I find him more likely to flip wolf than anyone else, said we need to pick between Rhand or shadow unless someone is going to make a persuasive case otherwise, then moved my vote to shadow because I'm a waffly ***** who is afraid of lunching the wrong person and second guesses his reads every time he interacts with someone he thinks is a wolf, but there's no room for that in the game of Mafia so I have to suck it up and lunch someone anyway.
But I find myself wondering if we're even reading the same game. Maybe it's me and my reads are trash. Always possible. Hell, Vaimes has Rhand as least likely LnGrrr partner and I still have no idea how he got that over Grape. But I've not been presented with persuasive evidence to the contrary. Merely saying "I don't think Rhand and LnGr interacted like partners" isn't persuasive to me.
That is not to say I think Rhand is a lock wolf, or even to say that Rodemy is a villager, it's just to say that I do not understand the basis by which you are clearing Rhand over Rodemy. I don't understand why you are dismissing the Will thing and holding strongly to the idea that Rhand can't be his partner. I've read the posts you made about it and their posts together over and over and I apparently don't understand the principles by which you arrived at the reads you have.
You very clearly believe them. If you were a wolf you wouldn't be pushing me, for starters, because I'm an easy kill over you due to my claim and post count, and you need as many of those as you can get if you're a wolf. Unless you just really think I'm mislunchable but that's not... that's not a thing.
Your twinges of paranoia towards me match up almost exactly with when I start to feel uncomfortable about the direction of the thread which means you also feel, instinctively or otherwise, that weird "something is wrong" vibe I've been getting.
The difference is, when I get it I try to reassess and then arrive back at the same PoE I had when I started because I don't have enough info and I still think my townreads are ~mostly good (no one has even tried to convince me otherwise), and when you get it you start pushing random teams with me in them because you apparently think me powerwolfing resolves the weirdness. Not sure how or why, apparently it just does.
I get these holistic negative space reads you're representing on me. I have that exact read on shadow where the game just makes sense if he's a wolf who tried to bus LnGrrr and it backfired, but he isn't reeeally acting like a wolf. Especially not like his wolf self. Which leaves me with like, five days to figure out what the hell is going on in this game because you're right, none of it does make sense. Everyone has reasons to not be a wolf with LnGrrr except for people who are almost never wolves (Wisp) and people I don't think are playing like wolves (Rhand, shadow) which means some of those dichotomies are bad or shadow is pulling the wool over my eyes again, but if the dichotomies are bad one of them is probably being pushed by the third wolf. I just don't know who it is, but it certainly feels like it might be the Rhand/LnGrrr dichotomy that is the bad one because I straight up do not understand it.
That's where I'm at. Got a bit rambly, sorry.
- That was not meant to be softening it, that's how I talk to people I am engaging.
- Tubba said "not yet", to me the yet implied that he was waiting for something or a bar to pass for him to be convinced. I was curious.
• 148 question to LnG doesn't feel hard-hitting, but not exactly a soft lob, either.
- Yeah, I was more baffled than anything.
• LnG's response to you in 150 in context feels like he's backing off, trying to avoid antagonizing you. +town to you
- Thank you.
• What was your point to LnG in 169? You asked him if your gusto was a scum tell, he said he didn't think gusto was a tell either way, you said he was taking Rhand over you (140) because of your pep...but he actually said it was for your "bombast and overall pomposity". Also, it feels like you're again announcing that you're going to poke Rhand but without any teeth to the threat. In fact...looking at your iso, you talk about poking Rhand 3-4 times early game, but I don't feel like you actually take any steps in that direction. At least, not before you jump off Rhand and onto me in 231. Show me how you were poking/pressuring Rhand prior to 231 (with focus, not just "oh, Rhand is scum")?
- Sometimes I am too cheeky with my language. I was referring to his statement which I instead chose to call pep. I saw something wrong with his taking Rhand over me and citing something that to me was a very obvious null tell given my history. As for Rhand, the announcement of the poke was the poke. Maybe that's a bit meta for my own good but it was meant to be like "Hi, do I have your attention yet?" Rhand didn't much ping me after that.
• Your 191 where you say "hey, I don't like Rhand or LnG, so join me on Rhand" feels so much like the kind of thing I'd do as scum if I wanted to create some distance between me and buddy!LnG without actually pushing LnG. I fully acknowledge that you are not me, and your methods are not mine, but it's still pinging.
- In reality I was pushing an agenda to see how everything looked with me doing it. I can see because Lng was scum how this would look a bit odd but his alignment to my scheme was coincidence.
• What did you think of Shin's observation on you at the end of 192?
- Really confusing, on second look. At first I thought he meant I was an easy mislynch but looking back now maybe he meant the most prized mislynch for a scum to create if they can. Which is apparently true.
• 197 you say LnG isn't great for trying to use your pomp against you.
- Accurate
• What question of LnG's to me came off as softball?
- I'll get back to you when I re-read again.
Same thing for Silver. I'll do more review and ponder things.
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That’s now how any of this works tho. If you are scum it doesn’t matter if you “suspect” someone or not.
I mean...yes it was tongue in cheek, but actually no, it wasn't a joke. A big part of that introspection was the realization that when I'm town, my biggest contribution almost always seems to be being able to make it obvious to others that I'm town (as opposed to solving, hunting, etc). I've also been told from multiple players that I'm difficult to catch as scum, especially on behavior, and that they have to rely on a combination of PoE and interactions with (mostly from) my buddies to catch me. So...D1 I'm ALWAYS town (no PoE, no flips, so no interactions to analyze). No joke.
As for your hypothetical...sure? I could see scum!me doing something like that, probably. I think I'm pretty good at pocketing.
Mildly tilted at my efforts being labeled busy work, but whatevs.
Yeah, I get that he identified a counter-example, but it's not a GOOD counterexample. I would think it would only be convincing to you if you thought there was some correlation between Chris's voiced suspicion and Tom dying. *I* saw Chris's response and rolled my eyes, because it felt like Robert De Niro going "I have nipples, Greg; could you milk me?" Yes, it's a counterexample, but there's no logic behind it; it feels empty. But then you were like, Good point! o.O
I like the effort you put into 1364, btw. There's a lot of conviction there, even if it doesn't feel like you take any hard stances in it. On your comment about reassessing then arriving back where you started: have you considered the possibility that this is happening because you're super tunneled on some/all of your perceptions of the game? Do you tend to tunnel, or not so much?
Chris, first off, thanks for responding to every single bullet point I gave, but that's not really necessary for the comments unless you feel like you need to clarify/correct my perspective. Second, here's what I see from you on Rhand early game:
111 you vote Rhand for his reasoning on Grape.
115 you get SUPER HYPED at the possibility that Rhand really is scum.
131 you ask why he voted Shadow and not you, then vaguely threaten him.
138 you indicate that it doesn't make sense for Rhand to vote Shadow when he suspected you first.
169 you say Rhand's not being genuine and threaten to poke him again to see if he breaks.
186 you clarify the zeal = righteous zeal to Tom's question.
191 you tell Silver you have no warm fuzzies for LnG or Rhand and encourage him to vote Rhand.
220 you unalign Rhand and Shin.
224 you unalign Rhand and Shadow, then say "Hm hm hm. Oh believe you me Rhand I am poking you just the way I want to. You are totes poked right now." and ask him about Riku.
There are a few questions there, but nothing with any bite. So I get where Rhand was coming from when he said something like "your poking stick is broken".
But...your explanation in 231 sounds like a rational progression, so probably not as indicative as I initially thought.
You say you were pushing an agenda when you made 191; can you explain that to me a little more?
I'm not sure how I feel about you saying it was tongue in cheek but not a joke and also agreeing that if you were a wolf you might do that lol. It's a bit like... the thing I would expect you to do as a wolf because you're trying to establish plausible deniability while also making me feel like I have you figured out or something. It sort of fits that same wolf mold I already had you in of being reasonable/agreeable.
Like, I can kind of see you going through your old games and playing with new people in a new meta and realizing things about your own play you didn't know before but I can't really see how that post isn't a joke even with that context. I'm sure you do believe that you shouldn't be lunched on D1 and that if you're a wolf it will become apparent "later" because you won't be obviously town but the wording and posts immediately preceding it make it feel like a joke based on your self-meta and not just self-meta as you seem to be implying. Or something, I'm probably explaining this badly still.
lmao, I gotta go with Rodemy and say, what is this? What's the conclusion here?
back to Rodemy, I guess, sadly I'm still pretty disconnected with this game
I made a comment about how it's weird for Chris to keep voicing suspicion of me if he wants me to die.
He said he suspected tom and tom died died anyway.
I said "good point, but still weird"
Cantrip tried to nitpick me for saying "good point" because he doesn't think it actually is a good point. Or something.
I said "well, it shows that wolves this game are willing to night kill someone Chris is pushing... but LnGrrr's flip basically cleared tom so I'm not sure the circumstances really are the same, so maybe you're right, I guess."
And now we're here.
Talk to me about Rhand and shadow, Wisp. Do you think they're both villagers, or what?
Also stop voting me.
Thoughts on the Rodemy wagon? (Currently just Chris/Wisp).
I don't think it's AI, though. That's probably another reason why I was surprised by Riku liking it. I definitely could make that post as town or as wolf.
I guess, bottom line: I don't expect you to townread me for it, but I also hope you're looking at me holistically and not tunneling because of posts I could make as either alignment. *shrug*
(Back from vacation, will catch up on the last page and a half tomorrow probably.)
Wisp is a town PR.
More villagers on Rod please.
I remember seeing Rod demand an apology. For what? I’m sorry you ruined the town facade that Will set up for you, but that’s about it lmao.
Sorry lol. Forgot you were voting him because it's been there for so long.
@Cantrip:
re: tunneling, I mean, you're in the PoE so you're one of the handful of people I'm actively trying to read as a wolf and see who is the worst.
re: "the point", no, I don't really see how you thought me thinking that was a good point could be AI. If you wouldn't mind connecting the dots for me?
This is mostly academic, because the series of posts I'm rereading right now pretty strongly point to you being town, but if Chris makes a statement that doesn't really make sense to me, and then you say that it's a good point, then I feel like I'm left with three options:
1) It really was a good point and I'm not insightful enough to understand (two other players have questioned it, though, so at least I'm not crazy by myself).
2) You're town and really think that Chris's response was good.
3) You're scum and trying to pocket Chris by agreeing with him, agreeing with him because he's your buddy, or agreeing overly hasty just to seem agreeable.
I obviously don't think 1) is true, and if Chris's response wasn't a good point and I think you're intelligent, then that makes 2) less likely.
But, like I said, sorta academic, since I'm pretty solidly coming to a town read on you.
Oh, Wisp, I said "Don't" because I fully expected you to come in here and vote me after I flipped scum in Phantom, possibly just on principle. I'm surprised (in a good way) that you didn't.
I often concede trivial positions that I don't actually care about to focus on the point; he is trivially correct that tom was killed and that he was suspecting tom. Yes there are mitigating factors (I claimed, tom did not, tom was spewed by the LnGrrr flip, etc.) but it wasn't really important to the point I was making. It's weird either way that he wants me to get night killed and keeps saying he thinks I'm power wolfing.
I don't even know why I'm still talking about this. Yes it wasn't a good point but saying "that's... actually a good point but" doesn't indicate I've reversed my position about it being weird.
Like, whether it was a good point or not isn't something I was actively thinking about at the time because it was orthogonal to the point I was actually trying to make, and when you said it isn't really a good point I realized you were right but I still don't really care because it still doesn't affect the point I actually cared about.
Which, to reiterate, is that Chris is simultaneously representing me as someone he wants the wolves to night kill and as someone he thinks is a good lunch. If he actually wanted to increase the chances of me being night killed he would be representing a stronger town read than the one he (doesn't) have because, as a claimed PR, high posting consensus villager I'm the number one kill target, but the more doubt he sows about my alignment the less likely I am to be killed.
I still don't think wolf!Chris tries to push me because he actually needs me as a plausible kill over him, but yeah, it's still ~weird~.
And that's ~all the words I have to say on the subject.
Vaimes,
(more Shin posts)
• 279 Shin quotes Silver giving reasons to vote Rhand over LnG and says "I kinda feel like voting Rhand is a cop out, no?" Calls Rhand and Chris town. There'd be very little scum motivation to counter a town read that favored a buddy. So +town to Vaimes (unless, possibly, he's buddies with Rhand...or maybe with Silver).
• 282 I feel like this confusion from Shin is genuine, probably not buddies with Chris?
• 283 Vames replaces in.
• 286 Why did you feel the need to post the player list?
• 290 How has your knowledge of Chris's weaknesses benefited you this game?
• 338 Says he should have a read on Shadow and LnG by now, says LnG pings null rather than scummy, so LnG can live. Hedges on Shadow.
Rhand,
• 301 Tom defends you again. And again in 523.
• 524 you say you iso'd LnG. Would prefer Grape over LnG, but not opposed to LnG, citing his lack of townie conviction and possible buddies with Grape due to softball questions.
• 550 you put LnG at L-2, but observe that he hasn't been on in 5 days.
• [more in this post range, see out-take below]
Silver,
• 328 you ask Tom why LnG is the better lunch.
• 348 Pretty sure you're town for the naked vote push on LnG here.
• Not as fond of the sheeping reasons for Rhand/LnG in 374, nor the conflation of the two as on the same level, though.
• I like in 425 that you seem to try to shake Shadow and Grape out of their aside and get them back on track.
• 442 you encourage the Rhand wagon to abandon ship or push harder; I think unless Rhand is also scum you are town for this.
• 485 you give Wisp some space to catch up and shift your vote to LnG in the meantime. Another good look for you.
• 497 would be pretty brazen of you if you're buddies with LnG.
• 500 I like your response to Chris here, specifically that you're continuing to try and engage/explain rather than dismissing.
Grape,
• In context, I think you're right to question that first line of LnG's 331. I think it heightens the possibility of one of Rhand or Rod being scum.
• 391 you forgot LnG was in the game.
Shadow,
• 353 Follows Silver onto LnG with his own near naked vote.
• 433 encourages LnG to play the game.
• 440 I like that when it's coming down to brass tacks, you re-assert pushing LnG over Rhand. Possible you're scum reading the writing on the wall, but I don't think that's the case.
• 441 I also like that you follow up with your personal reasons for suspecting him.
• Why did you add the "(@Mafia)" to the end of 548?
Tubba,
• 359 I tilted my head a little at you saying that LnG gave your rb/jk comment a second look and moved on. I see him giving you some townies in 265, but not really any scrutiny on the rb/jk comment; can you point out where you saw that?
Rodemy,
(Posts from/about Will)
• 427 Feels like he's just reiterating a lot of what's been observed/said about LnG. Very self-conscious post. Finds LnG questionable but doesn't vote.
Wisp
• 487 you join the LnG wagon, but actually state reasons for doing so.
• 527 you say you're at Grape/Grr/Silver.
• 565 you're quite confident on LnG being mafia.
================================================================================================================
Sequence of posts that feels like I should be able to glean something from it:
551 Chris gets really annoyed (or affects it) that the leading wagon is on lurking LnG and pushes toward Silver.
552 Chris singles Rhand out for putting LnG into claim range when Rhand knew LnG hadn't been on for 5 days.
553 Rhand says there's no interest in Silver and he thinks LnG is best option.
554 Chris MAKES A DEAL with Rhand, says Rhand should vote Silver and Chris will spend his weekend presenting the case on Silver.
555 Rhand says he doesn't really want to lunch LnG, but instead Grape; encourages Chris to look at Grape.
556 Chris says "vote Silver now and I'll iso Grape on the spot".
557 Rhand votes Silver.
558 Rhand says he skimmed Silver's iso, gives a few small reasons, says Silver is probably scum but so is Grape.
559 Chris says he's isoing Grape.
560 Chris presents a rather persuasive case for Grape being town, encourages Rhand to stay on Silver.
I planned on postulating on this, but then I read 594 and anything I can pull from here just pales in comparison, so I'll plan on coming back to this later.
================================================================================================================
Chris,
• 272 you chuckle at a LnG-Grape interaction (but call it not AI), then say that you think LnG and Grape are unaligned based on LnG's analysis of Grape's play. I think this is +town to you unless the team is exactly LnG/you/Grape. Buddies don't usually go out of their way to unalign each other from townies. Did you ever clarify which of LnG's posts gave you that impression?
• 431, like Will's 427, also feels like a restatement of the game state with a little more elaboration, but you don't vote LnG.
• 436 you say there's no reason to put LnG at 4 votes vs 3, why not?
• 453 I don't like that you try to start a new wagon (Silver) when LnG's just starting to get attention, especially after demurring on voting LnG despite suspecting him.
• 488 you push to lunch Silver over LnG despite thinking they're buddies. If Silver flips town, that doesn't look good.
• 551 you again push away from LnG (this time using his inactivity as a reason) and push toward Silver.
• 552 is more vociferous pushing away from inactive LHF (LnG).
• [more in this post range, see out-take below]
• 562 you ask what the case on LnG is, exactly, and say you worry about "group think" (which, if I interpret it correctly, you're saying you're concerned about group consensus creating conf bias?).
• 563 If you weren't you, what would you think of this post, Chris, now that LnG has flipped scum?
• 571 you use AtE to push away from LnG's wagon.
• 594 is really weird. You use Rhand's willingness to vote Silver as rationale to town Rhand (which I can actually see), but then you say "So, in a world where you are town which I can buy given how people have trembled at this argument:" then list your town reads and say "You [Silver] are town because I just stipulated that", then list a PoE of LW/Tom/Tubba/Lng/Will/Vaimes, then unvote Silver and vote his scumread of Wisp. Like...
O.o
Let me say that again, slightly differently.
o.O
You had ZERO rationale for towning Silver there. You had been suspecting him (and voting him), you even said a few posts previous that if he could guess why you thought Rhand was town, he could be lock town, too. Five minutes later he posted and said he didn't see it initially, but asked you to give him a bit since he just stepped away from the computer. 8 minutes later, not even giving him the chance to try, you town him....because you said--in the same post--that he was town??? ??? ???????
What?
Silver doesn't seem to think anything is odd from this and votes Wisp (I'm guessing he was just happy to finally have some traction there). And no one else seems to notice, probably because Wisp claims out of nowhere and the attention shifts there. 604 you (Chris) vote Tom. 607 Silver goes back to LnG, which is a REALLY good look for him, imo.
But you? No, absolutely not. I thought I had caught you when we had that early game spat, and I should have stuck to my freakin' guns.
Vote: Sir Chris
If I had two votes, you'd have both of them. I tip my hat to you on (another) masterful piece of manipulation. I haven't reread too much further past that, but I'm pretty sure no one even ever questioned that really horrible progression.
But you're scum. I'm almost certain of it now.
I look forward to seeing how you try to wriggle out of this one, but fair warning: 23 hours from now I'm going to be heavily restricted in my available time and only able to post from mobile for most the weekend, possibly through deadline. I will keep up on reading current events, but if you want to have any meaningful in-depth discussions, the sooner the better.
Dang, this feels good.
Just....no. This is expert skill Chris is demonstrating, but it's scum expert skill.
Secondly I can see why 594 is confusing because I wasn't very clear in my thinking process there. So read it back as I explain: I was reading the mood of the room and how no one was really wanting to mix it up between Silver and myself and it led me to believe that it was because it was a town on town argument. I said everyone was trembling at it and what that was meant was me and silver were going at it by ourselves for awhile and when two town heavy hitters go blow for blow it tends to leave a vacuum where scum would rather just not get caught in the middle. I thought that scum would have interceded a bit more if I was hammering away at a member of scum and based off that I was willing to let the matter go then and there and to prod LW.
As for 563...
Pretty null, seems like at the time I was hyped up. In fact with knowledge of Lng being scum for sure a town lean on myself because what's the point of fighting for a scum buddy who isn't posting? It is such a waste of time. Scum Chris just goes in on the bus that he already crumbed earlier with his glances at Lng instead of trying to save someone not there. It isn't expert play at all from a scum Chris to crumb that he has his eye on Lng only to waste energy and resources fighting an afk player's lynch. The psychology employed by town chris is "I don't know what Lng's alignment is, but the cold acceptance of it is not in town's best interest (which I will argue right this second is still a good decision btw, Lng being scum is results based and not indicative of all worlds. I would say that finding scum based off that method before I spiced up the day has low equity. I stick with that. As I said in 563, it cost town nothing to provoke more content, we still got our scum at the end of the day.
571 you say push away from Lng wagon, I say quite more movement in the latter stages of the day. Yes I could have been hamfisted in my defense of bad scum player Lng, but nothing in my award winning length history suggests I'd care to do so there. Tom knew this and he died. I don't kill Tom night 1 if I have him pocketed. Actually I probably kill you and go "weird kill"
I think, if my read is right, I am playing one level above you right now and you are confused. You see me defending Lng and think "He is defending Lng" but I was defending LNG because the game state was bothering me. I see it as "there's no harm in pushing things and seeing where they can go" and you see "He was trying to save Lng as scum" which is no value for me to do as scum. I will repeat this a lot: there is no value in my wasting so much energy trying to save a non-poster.
Love the post though.
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Because I'm still riding that high, and admittedly probably in a tunnel (hopefully one that leads to dead scum), I want to point out that this is pretty standard textbook appeasing the attacker. You're complimenting AND declaring me obv!town. Does scum!Chris resort to these methods? Not sure, more on that below. And I'll be sure to revisit this post later to see if time provides different perspective.
I can see that possibility, I suppose. I can't remember who made the point at the time, but I pose a similar question: if you and Silver are both town, then why weren't there more nibbles at Silver (scum choosing to vote him based on your push)? I think it's just as possible that town wasn't buying what you were selling, and your buddies (well, buddy, since LnG was afk) certainly weren't going to jump on that wagon without some town support. Actually, more significantly, the entirety of the exchange between you and Silver was ~6 hours (maybe 7.5 if I look at your opening volley in 549). 7.5 hours. On this site. In perspective, since 7.5 hours ago, five players have posted. And in those specific 7.5 hours, you, Rhand, Shadow, Silver, and Wisp posted. Hmm. Five players. So why would you argue that the whole thread was held in thrall, popcorning your clash with Silver, on the edge of their seats with anticipation, as opposed to...just not a lot of players being around? And I don't think you're that oblivious to the habits of game threads on this site. So...nah, not buying that your 180 was sincere.
Here's 563 for reference:
So you start off with a fearmongering appeal to intelligence (towns...next step...don't...do well), but I like that you chose to focus on you pushing away from LnG. Yes, there are plenty of instances of that in your iso, which, while not a great look for you, isn't hard evidence because, hey, town can be wrong, right? Right, so you pushing away from LnG in and of itself isn't necessarily bad (*I* pushed away from LnG a few times).
No, my point was that middle line about the resistance to Silver. You had no problem tossing that out there as though it was indicative that Silver was scum, but you were totally blind that the exact same thing was happening with LnG...and that you were one of the ones creating that resistance? Hypocrite much? "But Cantrip," I can hear you say, "why would a player of my caliber openly take that avenue of attack while simultaneously employing it?" Because I think you know that one of the best places to hide is right in plain sight (also see below).
To address the smaller point first: Why would you kill me? You had me pretty strongly pocketed from 620 on; I'm pretty sure any suspicion I leveled at you after that point was minimal, and you'd already deflected a strong attack from me.
As for reasons to kill Tom: he's a strong analyst with conviction who isn't afraid to reassess prior Day reads in light of new information. And he was hard spewed town for his constant pressure on LnG. Are more reasons needed?
If you think I'm taking the 0-level read and running with it, you couldn't be further from the truth. Multiple players pushed away from LnG (either actively or passively in trying to lunch someone else). I know sometimes people reference 6th or 7th level reads, and I really don't think most reads ever go THAT deep. I think in general there are 0-level reads, 1st-level reads, and 2nd-level reads. And most of those levels are reliant on WIFOM. For instance, my 0-level would probably be "Chris pushed away from scum!LnG; he must be scum!" A 1st-level would be "Why would scum!Chris be so obvious in defending a buddy? That's crazy; he's probably town." I guess I'm more at a 2nd-level read of "Many scum would never defend a buddy there, but Chris is a strong player, able to argue his way out of probably anything beyond a cop check (and maybe even then); I don't think he'd blink twice at--artfully--pushing away from a buddy if he thought he could do so cleanly."
And you DID do so artfully. The first time I read that series of posts, it didn't even ping me. Felt very natural. But there were TOO many things that a skilled player shouldn't be doing, and since I know you're skilled, I think it's just more likely that you're powerwolfing scum.
I have to dash out the door, so I think this post has most of my thoughts, but I totally reserve the right to add an addendum.
Besides, to be frank, I'm not trying to convince YOU. That's an exercise in lunacy, especially with that silver tongue of yours, you little devil. I look forward when I get back to being able to read the thread (later tonight; I'm not going VLA yet) to hearing what others think.
Also please if you would try not to meta my niceness. I was just being nice.
I have a question for you: What would you say if I have a very strong and successful career out of bussing buddies? Also why does scum Chris throw suspicion on Tom at end of day for bussing Lng and then kill him that night? I feel like there's a lot of little flaws that add up to the right conclusion but you are too excited to see them.
Also one thing I will say for now, as I need to eat, is scum tend to be afraid of gong after non LHF. The reason why if silver is town (BUT PERHAPS HE IS NOT I have now decided!) scum stay out of the way is Silver can turn and eat them.
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Can’t read walls right now
Will become more productive later.
...I'm not quite sure how to respond to this. Like...I feel like you got super serious there, and you're probably sincere, and I want to respect your wishes, but at the same time, it's Mafia. Being nice is a valid tactic to use (for either alignment, for various reasons), so it feels odd for you to request that I not meta it. Not trying to be conflicting or rude (and I did feel like you were being nice; I just didn't know if I could trust that all your being nice motives were pure), just feeling a little like you're Obi Wan telling me these aren't the droids I'm looking for.
I'd say that if you're that aware of your meta, then you likely have no problem subverting it as it suits you.
Did...did you just WIFOM at me? I mean, I could think of a few reasons that might be true (trying to reduce the chance of Tom receiving protection N1, or possibly planning on leaving Tom to create WIFOM until you talked with your buddy and decided there was no way he'd ever be mislunched, just to name two), but at minimum, you could have done it just so you could point back to it and ask "why would I do this".
Ok, sure, but...did you read the part about how that exchange with Silver didn't take very long and maybe everyone else was just busy until the focus shifted somewhere else?
Something you didn't address above: why did you dangle a "lock-town opportunity" in front of Silver and then not wait for him to actually look for it (when he specifically said he was going to)?
#’s 140, 143, 151, 152, 157 and 159 seem to be the pertinent ones for your question.
Also WIFOM is pretty easy to solve when dealing with someone on my level, actually. I have a track record of success as both alignments. Now true it is hard to tell those alignments apart but "is very good at catching scum" is actually true for both of my alignments. I tend to be the final boss of most scum teams, as it were. The fact that we are having this conversation is all the proof you can want that I am not scum, coupled with my good availability. Like GoT Scum Chris was having severe health problems and had to phone it in effort wise, but it is clearly not the case here.
Like sure scum Chris could have totally killed tom who just said he was town because LULZ and FUN but that is just saying it to say it, and not really likely. I have years of history that your only answer for is "well I guess you're subverting" but why would I need to subvert myself? Why aggressively town clear so many people? You see some things that are questionable, and I think objectively I don't mind any question you've been posing me, and you swim towards my scum and don't really take a moment to start from neutral. I get it, I'm really good and also exciting to engage with. I am also town so this is an awkward dance for me.
As for niceness, it is mostly because I tend to prefer logistical manipulation as either alignment over emotional manipulation. Nice/mean from me tends to be Chris' mood based but you can meta how you like, I suppose.
Like here's the thing. I can do anything as scum. Like, true statement I know my meta better than anyone here times five. I study myself, I write notes, I could do absolutely anything. However true that may be when we get to an argument where the only thing in its favor is "so you could SAY you would never" it gets a bit thin, you know? I don't think anyone ever scums it up with their entire strategy being "heh heh, but I never would do it that way!" or I guess maybe they do, I just think it is unlikely I'd do that because I'd much rather be getting credit for murdering my scumbuddy Lng day 2 than having this conversation with you right now. In defending Lng so much if I were his buddy I had to have known scrutiny was coming.
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No comments on my Chris suspicions?
Hmm. Ok. Why didn't you? Like...you "caught" what was obviously--for you--a strong reason to town read Rhand. And I can see a town mindset going "hey, if the guy I'm suspecting can find that, too, based on the kind of tell it is, that mindmeld might actually mean he's town"...but then you tromp all over that by just giving him town pants for no (apparent) reason. Why???
Ooooookay, but isn't a big part of why you had to phone it in because you had health problems? I felt like you probably would have gone full-on town demolishing in GoT if you hadn't been hindered by real life health issues. So are you attempting to handwave my suspicions with "I'm here, and engaging; doesn't that in and of itself mean I'm town"? Because I didn't equate your lack of presence and engagement in GoT with you being scum. BTW, I don't feel like you actually showed how to solve WIFOM when dealing with someone on your level; just said it was easy.
I gave two reasons in 1391 why you (or anyone) might have chosen to kill Tom, and I listed three possible reasons for you to throw suspicion on Tom and then kill him that Night, and none of those five reasons were "LULZ" or "FUN". The subversion comment was in response to you saying you have a history of bussing, and be honest: do you really ALWAYS bus? Do you NEVER white knight/powerwolf a buddy who's under fire? Do you expect me to take you at your word when you throw more wine at me and ask why you would need to subvert yourself? The ways of scum are strange and mysterious (as poor Wisp witnessed first hand in Phantom recently), and I'm not here to provide answers for why town!you or scum!you did or didn't do a thing. My job is to look at behaviors and try to decide whether they come from a town mindset or a scum mindset. I saw you HEAVILY suspect Silver, then in the span of just a few posts pull a 180 and vote with Silver, then push off onto town!Tom when Wisp fell through. All while doing a whole lot to dismantle LnG's wagon. Why would scum!you do that? That's WIFOM. You did it; I think it's more likely to come from scum than town.
I can accept that you might feel that way, but--especially since I suspect you--it's near impossible to just accept niceties leveled at me and accept them at face value while the game is still being played.
Huh. I've TOTALLY done things with the thought "no one would think scum would do this". Thanks for the self-meta; I'll tuck it away with the niceness as "interesting, but not convincing". Do you think you'd easily accept another player's self-meta as convincing if you suspected them?
And yes, you'd have known that scrutiny was coming. I've been in that situation myself as scum, and still made the choice that I knew would draw attention, believing that I could handle that attention/scrutiny. You're a strong player who's already voiced feeling like you can take on pretty much anyone in the thread; I have no problem believing that you would barely blink at powerwolfing while defending a buddy, even a buddy strongly likely to go down, and thinking you could handle any fallout.
I give you credit for playing well and boldly, and for that I hugely respect you. It maaaaaybe moves the scumometer a little toward town, but just a little. I certainly appreciate you responding quickly (but I also understand that you have a life and a family, so I'm not going to start screaming for your lunch just because you don't respond in a timely manner). As I said, I'm not trying to convince YOU. The more back and forth the two of us have, though, the more grist there is for the others to chew on while they make their decision. (Those that actually read these posts. Wisp I'm looking at you.)
And stabbing Rod...blegh, deciding whether that's a good idea would require me to actually finish rereading the game, which I probably won't have time to do before deadline. Why do that when I have caught scum squirming under my thumb?
Ah no. I meant in GoT if I had been feeling better I would have bussed super hard. I almost did bus super hard but no one listened and I didn't have the energy to bus harder and not get listened to harder. Defending buddies is so 2014.
I'll respond more when I am awake, what I will say however is that what I am trying to demonstrate to you really isn't self meta, but rather game theory laid out. Like... you really think scum Chris votes for an EXTENSION for his scumbuddy who is missing? Like... god I know WIFOM my man but jesus you really think I'd do that in thread? I mean OK, anything is possible doctrine I suppose.
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Frankly, I feel like you shot yourself in the foot a little. Most of the responses you've given me amount to WIFOM afaict, and while I know I can't just wave that term around and think that it'll discredit every argument you make, every time you say "I really wouldn't do this as scum", I think "but he's been crowing all game about how good he is". So maybe you ARE playing one level above where I've been thinking, or even two, but I think where I'm really getting hung up isn't how your choices look bad in retrospect. It's that the way you're playing the game feels questionable, and if you're really the GREAT SIR CHRIS, SCUM-MURDERER AS TOWN AND EPIC DECEIVER OF TOWNIES WHEN SCUM, then the only way I can reconcile the choices and tactics you're resorting to is from you having a mindset of intentional subterfuge.
I want to reread this page in the morning and see how it looks after some rest. I'm off to bed.