Shin > xy is only if you explicitly trust Rod's claim of it being a straight up 50% shot. Like, if you think there is a chance xy is scum, clearly he could be fabricating or leaving out parts of the conditions with which his kills hit. It's only a dichotomy if you have information on the truthiness of the capabilities of the Day kill. i.e. you know he is town so don't doubt his claim, or you are scum buddies and know how it works.
So you're proposing a scenario where XY has a daykill with special conditions, that he's scum with Shin, and that he knew that Shin would not satisfy those conditions and that the shot was guaranteed to fail?
That hadn't even occurred to me, and I don't think it's a plausible scenario. We know there's a daykill, we know it doesn't always work; that's already sufficiently complex without having conditionals attached to the kill.
And we know it's not just a matter of "he just didn't really use the shot D1", because the mod responded - and notably didn't respond when someone else tried to do the same thing.
@Cantrip: For your other questions/comments:
I am not going to address what I'm looking for in Chris's response. You should know not to ask questions like that.
On the shot-response from Thousand: I can see how you could view that response differently. It's not a matter of what is in the response, it's a matter of what was missing, and expectations are certainly subjective.
Of the three, I am approximately XY ~= Shin > Chris. Both on scumminess and info-delivery. But I'd be fine with any of them. We're down to the last day again, so it comes down to who we can get votes on.
unvote vote XequalsY
The main point is I don't agree with your trichotomy post and it sort of feels like it's forced and not well reasoned out. I'm not saying I believe that shin and xy are most likely scum together, but your lack of paranoia or even apparent deeper speculation on what could be going on with xy's role is what really strikes me as odd. I mean, even just at a very basic level this is a faction-based game and a public daykill that could be based on faction isn't that far-fetched or complicated. It might not be right and maybe it just is straight up 50%, but the fact that you aren't questioning it all and trying to set up a tricohotomy based around it rubbed me the wrong way.
@Hunger: I agree that XY could totally be lying about aspects of his ability, but it's not the ability that makes me think he's more likely town than scum. It's his target choice. I just don't see scum making their life difficult by shooting a lurker who hadn't come up when there were so many other "good" targets being discussed PLUS a few wagons to choose from. Again, other than the outside chance that scum rolecopped 1053 and decided his ability was just too dangerous to continue existing, but then I still feel like scum would have done more pre-justifying than "too busy, lol-shoot 1053". YMMV, but that's how I feel.
Also, I don't remember anyone else, but Tom, at minimum, has mused on possible ways that XY's ability could be different than claimed and thus scummier.
Sure, I can see why you would reason that. I think I agree for the most part that 1053 would have been a very odd scum choice. It could be that he had info on him that either rolewise or factionwise that ties into the kill going through. Could also be that he was banking on exactly your reasoning of 1053 being an unlikely scum target. Overall, I don't fault your reasoning for leaning town on it though, but me and Occam have never been friends.
I'm willing to reconsider if you can show me evidence of conditional daykills on MTGS.
OK, I lied. I went back and looked at Playstation and it was a Night mafia vig shot not a day shot.
There is still however the fact that this is a faction-based game with faction-based alternate win conditions AND there was an additional NK. That should be enough to question whether everything is as it seems.
In general, people calling xy for sure town is giving my Playstation vibes. Playstation was the last shadow-hosted game and had a scum day kill that would have walked to end game for the same clear had he not been modkilled. Especially considering we have an extra Night death, why would you just assume he is town? I mean, I don't really want to lynch there regardless, because I think it's mostly self-resolving as we get more info or the scum is forced to NK him, but the lack of paranoia seems weird to me.
@Chris - You said we would know why you didn't want to reveal flavor/role when you did eventually claim for, "weird reasons"...bulletproof - sure, if town more valuable to remain unclaimed, but the flavor thing I don't really get. Also, not super keen on you outing our faction...
What do you think about the fact that they didn’t kill him? That plus the extra nk is bugging me. Like, you CC a vig by vigging them. Why kill Last or Highroller there over a very likely PR?
That's a pretty good thought. The extra NK being town doesn't make a ton of sense to NOT shoot xy. Unless they were afraid of him getting protection since everyone assumed he was town? It's definitely another thing that probably just points to the slot being town, but like I said, I'm not super concerned with that right now because I don't think there is danger of him being lynched toDay. I would probably fight if it started going that way.
My main thing was the mindset of Kami not having any doubt or seeming to try to figure it out.
Gah, this is why I usually do wall posts with multiple topics. Now I'm not supposed to post anymore until others post.
@Vaimes - A while back you mused on no one else campaigning for the throne. I mentioned Day 1 that I have a claim to it and would like votes as well, but haven't brought it back up due to my play time not likely garnering any support. Someone else mentioned also having a wincon as well as a locked ability behind the throne. I'd very much like to be on the throne, but I don't think it's going to happen until I earn some respect.
I also think we need to start being more public about our support for the throne so mafia can't hide behind their numbers and potentially control it. Don't want to bog down the end of Day with that right here, but tomorrow I think it needs to happen.
@Rhand - Yeah, per my last post yesterDay I'm sort of getting the same feeling. It's why I'm pushing people to give reasoning on Kami other than, "I'd be OK with his lynch." It's giving me feelings, but I do think he has been scummy and don't have any other strong pushes I think I can make right now. I sort of feel like we are being run around by some of the higher "towncore" posters actually being scum, but that's just gut and the fact that nothing has gone in favor of town so far.
@RE - Sure. That could be reasoning to not like me. I guess that's what happens when playing from behind the entire game and feeling the need to comment on all goings on. I'm trying to do it differently right now though and comment on things currently going on before having really read a good chunk of the recent pages. It's making me feel a little itchy...but also kinda freeing.
Aside: Sad days MTGS is going away. This has been my main home for mafia since the MTG mothership mafia forums closed like 6 or 7 years ago. While I haven't played much the last couple years, I always like that it was here to come back to or just idly spectate. Anyway, I'll leave other comments for the designated threads.
And we know it's not just a matter of "he just didn't really use the shot D1", because the mod responded - and notably didn't respond when someone else tried to do the same thing.
I missed this the first time around. Can you point me to the other occurrence that Shadow didn't respond to? I still haven't had time to read a chunk of D1...
I can certainly imagine an infinite variety of ways to set up the hypothetical, but being able to imagine it doesn't make it plausible. I can't think of a single conditional daykill in years of playing mafia. So yeah, I'm discounting that as not worth giving much thought to.
I feel like I have seen something like that, but it's possible it was on another site or even something bandied about in a game review, and I don't have time to hunt it down now. I will mention that one of the reasons I like playing specialties is the possibility of encountering something unusual, so I tend not to discount anything, really. I was thinking that there was a big difference between "discounting that as not worth giving much thought to" and your original response, which I thought was more "complete shutdown of the possibility", but rereading your response, it's more like the former.
What do you think about the fact that they didn’t kill him? That plus the extra nk is bugging me. Like, you CC a vig by vigging them. Why kill Last or Highroller there over a very likely PR?
Now that Hunger's responded, I will add that I personally wondered if Rod was faking it, so if I were a vig, I probably would have assumed Rod was being silly and vigged elsewhere...although if there was a fake dayvig that was ignored by Shadow, that severely minimizes the chances that other people who have actually read the whole thread thought the same, so your point stands, I guess.
@Cantrip - What three posts in the game do you most feel are alignment indicative for the person that posted them?
Do you have any reads that are sharply against the grain? A non-consensus read either in the town or scum direction that you feel quite strongly about? Why?
If I fired a barrage of bullets into: [Kami, Hunger, Rhand, Tubba], how many wolves do you think die?
Oy. Um, given that there are posts I haven't read, this may not be comprehensive, but I will see what I can do to respond to this before the deadline. As for hot take reads, I need to defer on that one until later, hopefully also before deadline. Your barrage of bullets probably hits at least one scum, maybe two. I've liked Hunger's recent posts, and I get a general overall town feel from Tubba, but there's not much there to work with. Several of Rhand's posts have pinged me as scummy. My eval on Kami is in progress.
I'm looking at Kami's ISO, and I'll post what I find, but in the meantime, I'm a little nonplussed by both Kami's apparent lack of concern at being at L-2 ~7 hours before deadline AND by the lack of push by anyone to make another wagon happen. Makes me wonder if scum are perfectly fine just letting the clock turn Kami's wagon into a shrug lynch.
It looks like shadow's post has the deadline listed as May 30, 1700 MST, but the amount of hours he listed would line up with today, May 29th 1700 MST. So I'm guessing we go by the date and ignore the hours meaning we have ~30 hours now.
@Cantrip - If I remember it was a KJ post that he tried to do something and didn't get a response. Looking...OK yeah, it was KJ, but the very next post seems to make it super apparent that he was joking around and not actually trying to do anything. And then he actually even commented on it being a thing to see if Rod was faking. 1518, 1519, and 1599.
I guess that looks like a pretty solid unaligned pair in Cantrip/KJ.
However, it looks like shadow didn't make a post in between 1519 and 1599, and the fact that 1519 came right after 1518 both suggest he didn't actually believe there was any chance of shadow doing a thing or that Rod was possibly faking it...hmmm
However, it looks like shadow didn't make a post in between 1519 and 1599, and the fact that 1519 came right after 1518 both suggest he didn't actually believe there was any chance of shadow doing a thing or that Rod was possibly faking it...hmmm
Oh, I do remember seeing that, although I didn't understand what he was doing. I figured I'd missed something that would become clear on reread. But...that does seem odd. And from what I can tell, no one really questioned him on it after the day-action announcement/retraction or after he explained in 1599.
Killjoy, why fake a day-action then rescind it without the mod posting first (or anyone posting, for that matter)? How did you know that Rod wasn't faking his action when nothing happened to indicate that your action wouldn't result in Shadow posting something?
As for the deadline, when Shadow posted his last votecount in 2410, he said the deadline was 27.5 hours from that post, which was 22 hours ago, so I'm assuming we have 5.5 hours or so.
@Mod: Can we get an updated votecount and deadline clarification, please?
Votecount to come; deadline hours were listed incorrectly (read: you mod forgot what day he wrote) and deadline is tomorrow, May 30th at 1700 MST, ~29 hours from now.
Currently my hypotheses on the extra nightkill, in approximate order of likelihood:
1) There's an SK - pretty plausible in a game like this, complexity fits, and lots of characters that could flavorwise fit; but SK-hunting doesn't help us right now, if anything an SK should be helping us N2 because they should be trying to shoot scum now.
2) Mafia extra kill - might not have fired at Rodemy because fearing protection/tracking, or believe they can successfully convince him to fire at town
3) A vig who decided not to shoot Rodemy for some reason; maybe they feared protection, maybe they are 1-shot and think 2 weak killing roles is fine, maybe they just didn't think of it.
#1 gives us about zero info and #2 gives us minimal info so I'm setting the problem aside for another Night or two.
Cantrip, you keep saying I'm at L-2 but I am still pretty sure I'm not.
I just realized there's a #4 which is that someone attempted to shoot Rod but got redirected, but then if they're town I would certainly expect them to claim that.
Currently my hypotheses on the extra nightkill, in approximate order of likelihood:
1) There's an SK - pretty plausible in a game like this, complexity fits, and lots of characters that could flavorwise fit; but SK-hunting doesn't help us right now, if anything an SK should be helping us N2 because they should be trying to shoot scum now.
2) Mafia extra kill - might not have fired at Rodemy because fearing protection/tracking, or believe they can successfully convince him to fire at town
3) A vig who decided not to shoot Rodemy for some reason; maybe they feared protection, maybe they are 1-shot and think 2 weak killing roles is fine, maybe they just didn't think of it.
#1 gives us about zero info and #2 gives us minimal info so I'm setting the problem aside for another Night or two.
Cantrip, you keep saying I'm at L-2 but I am still pretty sure I'm not.
I still wanna go preferably 3, mostly because i think the day vig is a mafia role.
Well i thought deadline was today too... consider this your daily reminder we dont have to use the whole time
Just gonna go ahead and tell scum to kill me tonight. Ill have nothing but free time for day 3 and intend to take this seriously if it's the last game here
@Cantrip: Now that Chris has given something vaguely answer-shaped:
The point is always to look for contradictions and mindset tells. I don't know exactly what a mindset tell will be in any given case until I see it.
I poke with a lot of questions because they get people to talk about stuff. Sometimes I even ask redundant questions, on purpose, to see if people will give the same answer or contradict what they already said.
Most answers to prodding questions like that are null. That's okay, though. The strategy is to get enough of them that I will occasionally pick up something interesting - either from a lucky shot, or from a lot of little things to piece together.
I didn't get anything from this response that gave me an "ah-ha" moment. Chris mostly didn't engage. That goes in the profile that I continue to develop for this-game-Chris: refusing to engage with my prodding. Will that change in the future? Will he react differently to others? We will see.
Oh, also, regarding "lack of interest in another wagon": there is another wagon. It's X=Y. That's the correct kill today.
Ok, I'm back home and can post from my laptop finally!
Given that I have like 30 hours before deadline, I figure I'll catch up quickly to the rest of D2 and then do skim ISOs as I see helps.
I dislike RE's entrance and reaction to me shooting 1053. #2233 and #2234 as a combo felt gross to me - the vote on me is whatever if their 1053 town read was super strong. But their shade on Hunger is pinging me, unless I skimmed over an explanation they gave at some point in D1.
Out of the others, Rhand just /barning RE and Thousand Winds on me is a bit ???
@RE's #2292:
At that point in time, I felt I could maybe get a discussion going with Shinichi to get a solid read on him/get him lynched (whereas I think I had yet to see anything from 1053 D2), so went for a lurking scum read instead. Also being honest, I knew the faction of Shinichi already which contributed to why I shot elsewhere. I went ahead with a shot early today without other people's input because the game state at that point was basically glacial, just looking at how the wagons went today I doubted we were getting anywhere until right before deadline so maybe the shot attempt could generate discussion.
No, my role doesn't have a reason to need to hide my kill target before I make it. It's basically just a 50% shot with a caveat - I can't kill a certain person.
I think overall, I'm still town-reading RE. The open declaration of their win con is NAI, but I liked their probe and exchange with Chris. It felt like trying to solve Chris despite the alt win con meaning that RE would theoretically be ok with a shrug lynch/wagon on Chris. That plus the mysterious Cantrip clear thing I guess.
Not sure what to think of Chris at the current moment. I liked their start of D1, but I don't really remember much else they did after that so that read dropped off a little. Rod voted for Chris today because of his weird cage-y behaviour overnight regarding not wanting to flavour claim. I think overall it's probably NAI, but it did read a little theatrically (i.e. his paranoia was a bit overblown but I guess stuff like tom having two factions is a thing).
Not a fan of his reaction to people questioning his vote more than any actual reason he's laid out in the thread so far. His reaction to people wanting to discuss his Vaimes read in particular is what's most suspicious to me but then his stubbourness I'm not sure can come from scum!Chris. I know pride etc... but not changing the Vaimes read after multiple people went ??? at him for it then his last couple posts regarding people's comments on his play feels genuine in tone.
I'm not really sure I understand Kami's progression on me/Shin in D2. It makes sense why he's voting for me (i.e. the other wagon so he survives), but his progression from #2245 to #2468 is ???. He's super set on this dichotomy (then adds Chris for the trichotomy) but it doesn't really feel like he developed a read on me at all apart from more people having voted for me over Shin at this current point in time. Also his #2464 role speculation and his certainty that I'm the right lynch for today in #2468 is also a bit baffling to me.
Ok, I'm more tired than I thought I would be from my flight so gonna check out early tonight. I'll be busy at work tomorrow since it'll be my first day back, but I'll be around tomorrow before deadline in a similar time slot to now (i.e. couple hours before deadline if I have the time right).
Skimming the last pages, I like Hunger and Cantrip. And tom.
On the fence about Lngr.
Not liking x=y too much but still think he’s not a good lynch.
I wish I had something to bite into. There seems to be a lot of apathy.
I’m not getting the Kami wagon still but will vote if needed for a lynch.
Tomorrow is the last tour day of my current cruise. I will be very busy.
The Night phase couldn’t fall on a worse moment for me, but I can use it to iso a few people and get a better grasp.
@xequalsy
Why would knowing Shinichi's faction influence your shot? Faction shouldn't be relevant to alignment?
If you hoped to get discussion going, shooting a lurker was not the way to do it. Shinichi was frequently the candidate people defaulted to scumreading - killing him would have at least forced them to look elsewhere. So avoiding shooting Shinichi is exactly what I'd expect scum to do :I
1053 was nearly confirmed town to me. I also think asking who would be a worthy shot is a good way of generating discussion?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
Vaimes, please review last night and recall that voting me today is contrary to your win condition.
I don't know how much you want to discuss this in the open, but...no it isn't?
I mean I suppose it is, but our wincon is guaranteed to be fulfilled toNight regardless of whether you live or die, so now the primary concern for me is your alignment, not your house. Unless there's something else I'm completely missing?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Tom's lack of desire to explain his scumread of me annoys me to no end. (This isn't the first game he's done it. It always feels bad to me). I'm sure he probasly has a reason but he's not saying and that makes me feel like he was gonna scumread me regardless of what I did in reaction. IDK if that's the case but that's how it feels.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Kami's entrance into the day doesn't tell me much. IDK what I'm supposed to be looking for.
Winds seems to be implying that he's scummy for it but I'm looking for typical scumtells and not seeing them. Nervousness seems absent, It's not really reactionary. Unless his not reacting to votes on him is what Winds is referring to? Maybe scum just ignore votes on themselves? IDK.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Tom, the three people on me are all scum I caught last game. Rodemy I let go admittedly, but I murdered two of them and the third solidly pinged me. It isn't BS for me to go "Yeah this is not three members of town all doing this scummy action." All know me (Also Vaimes trying to pretend like he barely knows me when in scum chat he was terrified of me is a joke in and of itself) but all three of them going "Trying to make chris do stuff via voting" cannot be how three of them think. Almost assuredly one as I doubt three scum decide to have an adventure on me. Maybe two are town, but all three? I just don't believe that. It's one of those votes that looks good because "hey do stuff" but I would offer "why do these players who have all played many games with Chris expect a vote to pressure him to be active?" I will be more active because I am recovering well from surgery, not due to pressure. And my uptick of activity was more or less announced in thread when I stated why I would be largely absent. It was predictable So the votes were always going to be toothless.
Someone talk to me about this. The observation that his wagon is made of scum he caught last game seems... like something scum would not be focusing on? It displays a broader view of the game than scum typically have.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I suppose my problem with tom is that he says this: "To clarify
The alignment makeup of ones faction should never be clearing or condemning, but it does change the odds by some percentage"
But he's acting like it condemns me and I dislike that.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
When you are not sure where to go, safe to go with a person you are pretty sure is town.
Chris, Cantrip, RE is my sort of short list. I am having a hard time engaging on what is going on. I kind of like Shini's mindset from the last page. He feels solvey. tom, I don't actually know.
Kami, I am trying to read as someone who subjectively reads kamis tone as wolf typically.
What the hell? I dislike this post. The justification feels awkward and I'm townreading Vaimes.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I might as well claim since someone could hammer me at any time, unless Vaimes reconsiders.
I'm Cersei Lannister. My house is Lannister. I have the passive ability to support myself for the throne. I have a secret ability (I don't know what it is) that unlocks if I get the throne.
My hypothesis is from my own ability and the Renly and Stannis flips. I hypothesize that characters from the books that have the most direct claims to the Iron Throne would all have the "you can support yourself" ability. E.g. if we have Joffrey, perhaps Robb, probably Daenerys, I would not be surprised to see that. So far those have also had the "secret unlock ability" so that is also likely to be shared.
And, obviously, I intended to achieve one of my house win conditions tonight if I survive.
Full disclosure: I consider the house win conditions to be the primary win condition in this game, and the normal Mafia alignments to be secondary. That said, my house win conditions are not contrary to the town; should I survive and achieve my main win condition, I do want to go "completionist" and try to get my "normal" win condition too (though that's less likely with this many town dead).
If like, the only thing you know about your role is you unlock an ability upon getting the throne, why have you not pushed to receive the throne, given almost no one else in the game has expressed a desire for it?
Vaimes says it's an alt win condition, but I don't really give a ***** about alt win conditions. If it unlocks an actual ability I guess I don't understand why you haven't pushed for it.
And, obviously, I intended to achieve one of my house win conditions tonight if I survive.
Full disclosure: I consider the house win conditions to be the primary win condition in this game, and the normal Mafia alignments to be secondary. That said, my house win conditions are not contrary to the town; should I survive and achieve my main win condition, I do want to go "completionist" and try to get my "normal" win condition too (though that's less likely with this many town dead).
Man.
I have like the exact opposite approach to this game.
Maybe it's why so many people have felt like they just aren't genuinely invested in solving/finding wolves?
@Thousand: One of my first posts declared my desire for the throne. I've been fine with Vaimes holding it, and haven't pushed for it since, for ~reasons~.
I don't expect the claim to do much for people - it wouldn't do much for me if I saw someone else claim it - but claiming is the right thing to do.
I hereby announce my claim to the Iron Throne. I shall be a fair and just ruler, and will weigh the advice of the citizens and lords in shaping the policy of the land.
There is still however the fact that this is a faction-based game with faction-based alternate win conditions AND there was an additional NK. That should be enough to question whether everything is as it seems.
My main thing was the mindset of Kami not having any doubt or seeming to try to figure it out.
@Vaimes - A while back you mused on no one else campaigning for the throne. I mentioned Day 1 that I have a claim to it and would like votes as well, but haven't brought it back up due to my play time not likely garnering any support. Someone else mentioned also having a wincon as well as a locked ability behind the throne. I'd very much like to be on the throne, but I don't think it's going to happen until I earn some respect.
I also think we need to start being more public about our support for the throne so mafia can't hide behind their numbers and potentially control it. Don't want to bog down the end of Day with that right here, but tomorrow I think it needs to happen.
@Rhand - Yeah, per my last post yesterDay I'm sort of getting the same feeling. It's why I'm pushing people to give reasoning on Kami other than, "I'd be OK with his lynch." It's giving me feelings, but I do think he has been scummy and don't have any other strong pushes I think I can make right now. I sort of feel like we are being run around by some of the higher "towncore" posters actually being scum, but that's just gut and the fact that nothing has gone in favor of town so far.
@RE - Sure. That could be reasoning to not like me. I guess that's what happens when playing from behind the entire game and feeling the need to comment on all goings on. I'm trying to do it differently right now though and comment on things currently going on before having really read a good chunk of the recent pages. It's making me feel a little itchy...but also kinda freeing.
Aside: Sad days MTGS is going away. This has been my main home for mafia since the MTG mothership mafia forums closed like 6 or 7 years ago. While I haven't played much the last couple years, I always like that it was here to come back to or just idly spectate. Anyway, I'll leave other comments for the designated threads.
Will be around for another 10 minutes though.
I feel like I have seen something like that, but it's possible it was on another site or even something bandied about in a game review, and I don't have time to hunt it down now. I will mention that one of the reasons I like playing specialties is the possibility of encountering something unusual, so I tend not to discount anything, really. I was thinking that there was a big difference between "discounting that as not worth giving much thought to" and your original response, which I thought was more "complete shutdown of the possibility", but rereading your response, it's more like the former.
Now that Hunger's responded, I will add that I personally wondered if Rod was faking it, so if I were a vig, I probably would have assumed Rod was being silly and vigged elsewhere...although if there was a fake dayvig that was ignored by Shadow, that severely minimizes the chances that other people who have actually read the whole thread thought the same, so your point stands, I guess.
Oy. Um, given that there are posts I haven't read, this may not be comprehensive, but I will see what I can do to respond to this before the deadline. As for hot take reads, I need to defer on that one until later, hopefully also before deadline. Your barrage of bullets probably hits at least one scum, maybe two. I've liked Hunger's recent posts, and I get a general overall town feel from Tubba, but there's not much there to work with. Several of Rhand's posts have pinged me as scummy. My eval on Kami is in progress.
I'm looking at Kami's ISO, and I'll post what I find, but in the meantime, I'm a little nonplussed by both Kami's apparent lack of concern at being at L-2 ~7 hours before deadline AND by the lack of push by anyone to make another wagon happen. Makes me wonder if scum are perfectly fine just letting the clock turn Kami's wagon into a shrug lynch.
@Cantrip - If I remember it was a KJ post that he tried to do something and didn't get a response. Looking...OK yeah, it was KJ, but the very next post seems to make it super apparent that he was joking around and not actually trying to do anything. And then he actually even commented on it being a thing to see if Rod was faking. 1518, 1519, and 1599.
I guess that looks like a pretty solid unaligned pair in Cantrip/KJ.
Killjoy, why fake a day-action then rescind it without the mod posting first (or anyone posting, for that matter)? How did you know that Rod wasn't faking his action when nothing happened to indicate that your action wouldn't result in Shadow posting something?
As for the deadline, when Shadow posted his last votecount in 2410, he said the deadline was 27.5 hours from that post, which was 22 hours ago, so I'm assuming we have 5.5 hours or so.
@Mod: Can we get an updated votecount and deadline clarification, please?
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StaffWhy am I town and not TPR?
1) There's an SK - pretty plausible in a game like this, complexity fits, and lots of characters that could flavorwise fit; but SK-hunting doesn't help us right now, if anything an SK should be helping us N2 because they should be trying to shoot scum now.
2) Mafia extra kill - might not have fired at Rodemy because fearing protection/tracking, or believe they can successfully convince him to fire at town
3) A vig who decided not to shoot Rodemy for some reason; maybe they feared protection, maybe they are 1-shot and think 2 weak killing roles is fine, maybe they just didn't think of it.
#1 gives us about zero info and #2 gives us minimal info so I'm setting the problem aside for another Night or two.
Cantrip, you keep saying I'm at L-2 but I am still pretty sure I'm not.
I still wanna go preferably 3, mostly because i think the day vig is a mafia role.
Just gonna go ahead and tell scum to kill me tonight. Ill have nothing but free time for day 3 and intend to take this seriously if it's the last game here
The point is always to look for contradictions and mindset tells. I don't know exactly what a mindset tell will be in any given case until I see it.
I poke with a lot of questions because they get people to talk about stuff. Sometimes I even ask redundant questions, on purpose, to see if people will give the same answer or contradict what they already said.
Most answers to prodding questions like that are null. That's okay, though. The strategy is to get enough of them that I will occasionally pick up something interesting - either from a lucky shot, or from a lot of little things to piece together.
I didn't get anything from this response that gave me an "ah-ha" moment. Chris mostly didn't engage. That goes in the profile that I continue to develop for this-game-Chris: refusing to engage with my prodding. Will that change in the future? Will he react differently to others? We will see.
Oh, also, regarding "lack of interest in another wagon": there is another wagon. It's X=Y. That's the correct kill today.
Given that I have like 30 hours before deadline, I figure I'll catch up quickly to the rest of D2 and then do skim ISOs as I see helps.
I dislike RE's entrance and reaction to me shooting 1053. #2233 and #2234 as a combo felt gross to me - the vote on me is whatever if their 1053 town read was super strong. But their shade on Hunger is pinging me, unless I skimmed over an explanation they gave at some point in D1.
Out of the others, Rhand just /barning RE and Thousand Winds on me is a bit ???
@RE's #2292:
At that point in time, I felt I could maybe get a discussion going with Shinichi to get a solid read on him/get him lynched (whereas I think I had yet to see anything from 1053 D2), so went for a lurking scum read instead. Also being honest, I knew the faction of Shinichi already which contributed to why I shot elsewhere. I went ahead with a shot early today without other people's input because the game state at that point was basically glacial, just looking at how the wagons went today I doubted we were getting anywhere until right before deadline so maybe the shot attempt could generate discussion.
No, my role doesn't have a reason to need to hide my kill target before I make it. It's basically just a 50% shot with a caveat - I can't kill a certain person.
I think overall, I'm still town-reading RE. The open declaration of their win con is NAI, but I liked their probe and exchange with Chris. It felt like trying to solve Chris despite the alt win con meaning that RE would theoretically be ok with a shrug lynch/wagon on Chris. That plus the mysterious Cantrip clear thing I guess.
Not sure what to think of Chris at the current moment. I liked their start of D1, but I don't really remember much else they did after that so that read dropped off a little. Rod voted for Chris today because of his weird cage-y behaviour overnight regarding not wanting to flavour claim. I think overall it's probably NAI, but it did read a little theatrically (i.e. his paranoia was a bit overblown but I guess stuff like tom having two factions is a thing).
Not a fan of his reaction to people questioning his vote more than any actual reason he's laid out in the thread so far. His reaction to people wanting to discuss his Vaimes read in particular is what's most suspicious to me but then his stubbourness I'm not sure can come from scum!Chris. I know pride etc... but not changing the Vaimes read after multiple people went ??? at him for it then his last couple posts regarding people's comments on his play feels genuine in tone.
I'm not really sure I understand Kami's progression on me/Shin in D2. It makes sense why he's voting for me (i.e. the other wagon so he survives), but his progression from #2245 to #2468 is ???. He's super set on this dichotomy (then adds Chris for the trichotomy) but it doesn't really feel like he developed a read on me at all apart from more people having voted for me over Shin at this current point in time. Also his #2464 role speculation and his certainty that I'm the right lynch for today in #2468 is also a bit baffling to me.
Vote: Kami
Vaimes, please review last night and recall that voting me today is contrary to your win condition.
On the fence about Lngr.
Not liking x=y too much but still think he’s not a good lynch.
I wish I had something to bite into. There seems to be a lot of apathy.
I’m not getting the Kami wagon still but will vote if needed for a lynch.
Tomorrow is the last tour day of my current cruise. I will be very busy.
The Night phase couldn’t fall on a worse moment for me, but I can use it to iso a few people and get a better grasp.
Why would knowing Shinichi's faction influence your shot? Faction shouldn't be relevant to alignment?
If you hoped to get discussion going, shooting a lurker was not the way to do it. Shinichi was frequently the candidate people defaulted to scumreading - killing him would have at least forced them to look elsewhere. So avoiding shooting Shinichi is exactly what I'd expect scum to do :I
1053 was nearly confirmed town to me. I also think asking who would be a worthy shot is a good way of generating discussion?
I mean I suppose it is, but our wincon is guaranteed to be fulfilled toNight regardless of whether you live or die, so now the primary concern for me is your alignment, not your house. Unless there's something else I'm completely missing?
Time to try to catch up with d2.
Just gonna be spouring notes as I read things.
Any questions for me as I read?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Winds seems to be implying that he's scummy for it but I'm looking for typical scumtells and not seeing them. Nervousness seems absent, It's not really reactionary. Unless his not reacting to votes on him is what Winds is referring to? Maybe scum just ignore votes on themselves? IDK.
The alignment makeup of ones faction should never be clearing or condemning, but it does change the odds by some percentage"
But he's acting like it condemns me and I dislike that.
Currently wanna vote Kami or GJ though.
I'm Cersei Lannister. My house is Lannister. I have the passive ability to support myself for the throne. I have a secret ability (I don't know what it is) that unlocks if I get the throne.
My hypothesis is from my own ability and the Renly and Stannis flips. I hypothesize that characters from the books that have the most direct claims to the Iron Throne would all have the "you can support yourself" ability. E.g. if we have Joffrey, perhaps Robb, probably Daenerys, I would not be surprised to see that. So far those have also had the "secret unlock ability" so that is also likely to be shared.
Full disclosure: I consider the house win conditions to be the primary win condition in this game, and the normal Mafia alignments to be secondary. That said, my house win conditions are not contrary to the town; should I survive and achieve my main win condition, I do want to go "completionist" and try to get my "normal" win condition too (though that's less likely with this many town dead).
Vaimes says it's an alt win condition, but I don't really give a ***** about alt win conditions. If it unlocks an actual ability I guess I don't understand why you haven't pushed for it.
If you did and I missed it, could you quote?
Man.
I have like the exact opposite approach to this game.
Maybe it's why so many people have felt like they just aren't genuinely invested in solving/finding wolves?
I guess I don't super feel like this is how a wolf handles this, but the claim doesn't do anything for me either.
I don't expect the claim to do much for people - it wouldn't do much for me if I saw someone else claim it - but claiming is the right thing to do.
Might help us in the long run when it comes to dealing with mechanics?
I've already voted but I can change my vote.