KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Which is why I'm examining Tom and Vaimes. I'm expecting to come out still pretty sure they're town, but going in with open mind. I've literally never read either of them incorrectly and don't super expect this game to be the first time.
Sample size is pretty decent w/ both. Played in probably 15 games combined with them, and followed along/hosted another 20-30. Think they're both pretty easy reads, as much as Tom would protest that because of his fragile ego.
>Ive got 7 people i dont currently want dead. Not quite half. (Kami/vaimes/cantrip/shin/lngrr/hr/1053)
Pretty decent town reads on d1 Tom.
>If you add the "alright i guess not day 1" (chris/hunger/rod/re) im down to 7 candidates
Rhand/grape/tubba/johnny/last/kj/dv
Im aggressively null on rhand/tubba/johnny/kj
Grape/dv has a moderate to decent chance to contain a wolf
Last is scummy
Uh
vaimes
lngrr/1053/cantrip
kami/hr/shin
re/hunger
rhand/kj
grape/dv/chris/last
Moving chris down to my read instead of my likelihood of lynching him day 1
Removing rod/gj/tubba because literal nothing
No one in orange or red, separating positive from negative nulls (dark amd light gray) maybe those are reads
-
Hum. It's consistent at least, though 'wolf reading partners but not lynching them' is a Tom staple, tbh.
I was gonna say something like "well since I was supposed to die in the Night, why not lynch me toDay," but then that leaves the game at F3 going into the Night phase, which is Not Ideal. No Lynching is also kinda bad, since if all actions go through, that would immediately eliminate three players, unless scum holstered their shot.
Tom, the three people on me are all scum I caught last game. Rodemy I let go admittedly, but I murdered two of them and the third solidly pinged me. It isn't BS for me to go "Yeah this is not three members of town all doing this scummy action." All know me (Also Vaimes trying to pretend like he barely knows me when in scum chat he was terrified of me is a joke in and of itself) but all three of them going "Trying to make chris do stuff via voting" cannot be how three of them think. Almost assuredly one as I doubt three scum decide to have an adventure on me. Maybe two are town, but all three? I just don't believe that. It's one of those votes that looks good because "hey do stuff" but I would offer "why do these players who have all played many games with Chris expect a vote to pressure him to be active?" I will be more active because I am recovering well from surgery, not due to pressure. And my uptick of activity was more or less announced in thread when I stated why I would be largely absent. It was predictable So the votes were always going to be toothless.
NOW why Vaimes? Simple. Towm Vaimes who wants to pressure an unknown alignment Chris uses both votes to do it. He KNOWS who I am, he knows what I do to towns as scum and vice versa. So for him to do a poke vote is just weak. He's not invested. He's posturing. Guy got his ass kicked by us (see Tom, I can be a team player!) last game so he comes out and is all like "look at me, I can't be scum, I have a pulse" but really he isn't being strong. Strong is slapping two votes on me and really going in. He voted with every intention to unvote me when I became more active, which as stated above was always going to happen.
You guys voted Vaimes once. Vote Vaimes again.
i dont find "pressure chris to make him do something" a scummy action.
ESPECIALLY from the people that were just on the other side of town chris.
And frankly, i know you better than any of them i imagine and i am quite pleased youre under some pressure
I dont find vaimes only using one of his votes to poke at someone indicative at all and not sure why you would. Hes open that its a poke/pressure vote thats... the correct use of half of ones votes.
And you say vaimes should know you... well it goes both ways buddy because hes pretty easily readable as town here
So what you got, boo?
Hum.
Tom's Chris/Vaimes interactions in this section is probably towniest thing he's done.
But accurately reading Vaimes as town isn't.. exactly difficult, I guess.
Tbh Tom I am just not willing to engage you this game any longer. I will be re-reading with scrutiny but you are not nearly good enough at mafia to act as if I am a crazy person. Thank you, next.
you can just say "you got me i have no legs to stand on for this vaimes push"
Its fine i wont even scumread you for it unless you catch up and still wanna press it for no/bad reasons
Nng.
Yeah, having trouble seeing this be w/w, this whole segment.
Sample size is pretty decent w/ both. Played in probably 15 games combined with them, and followed along/hosted another 20-30. Think they're both pretty easy reads, as much as Tom would protest that because of his fragile ego.
Can't really speak for tom but both of us probably would've killed you a lot sooner, tbh.
Sample size is pretty decent w/ both. Played in probably 15 games combined with them, and followed along/hosted another 20-30. Think they're both pretty easy reads, as much as Tom would protest that because of his fragile ego.
Can't really speak for tom but both of us probably would've killed you a lot sooner, tbh.
Even as a confirmed neutral who couldn't kill a chunk of the team/you had a wolf doc, and I was town reading you?
I could have buried you today. Used you not dying in the night, used the fact that Shin's role doesn't make sense for him being the last wolf, used the fact that I'm the only person _that_ locked in on you being town, used the fact that you've done minimal active solving this game and coasted off of town reads and being king, used the fact that there's no way every Lannister was town.
I could have dropped a castle wall of death on your head and ridden off into the sunset with my win and you being lynched.
But I just. Couldn't.
I'm too sure you're town, and I don't have it in me to manufacture a case for my personal win at the expense of a town that never cast a single lynch vote for me this game despite me being an outed neutral.
Couldn't let you get mislynched for the loss again on mtgs either.
Not when I'm actually alive this time to keep that from happening.
So consider the knee still bent, and you still my king, even if you getting the kingship over people whose role actually benefits it was...really dumb.
But this does mean you need to suck it up and put some /work/ in.
I have literally no idea who you think the wolf is, I'm not even sure if you know you who think the wolf is.
If I'm gonna be your shield even when I need you dead, gonna need you to hit a wolf with me today.
Like, look - I don't game throw. If there's 2 votes on Vaimes, I'll hammer it to secure my win. But you're gonna need two votes on him without me, because I think he's town.
HI IF YOURE TOWN NIGHTVIG PLEASE SHOOT X=Y TONIGHT TIA
Also gonna use this post to say chris' reasoning on vaimes was, at least partially, that there must have been scum voting him and lngrr and rod were town...
And he keeps scumreading vaimes after deciding rodslot is scum...
But real talk i can totally see townchris, having still not actually read vaimes' posts, just keeping vaimes in his scumreads out of stubborness/because he only remembers the argument/because he hates the idea of me being right/whatever.
But im still waiting on, like, that chrissing that i know and love thats just not happening here
This feels pretty town, though, especially given he knew my role, and x=y was a wolf. Mm.
The longer Sir Chris goes without fully reading the game and displaying actual critical thought instead of an easy to fake self-centric viewpoint the more concerned I get he might actually just be a wolf here.
The longer Sir Chris goes without fully reading the game and displaying actual critical thought instead of an easy to fake self-centric viewpoint the more concerned I get he might actually just be a wolf here.
you know phighters starting pitcher theory?
Vaguely familiar. Don't remember exact details of it
[Quote=phighter]Most great pitchers suck in the first inning
They have no rhythm to the game or feel for what is going on or what their opponent is going to do
Opponent isn’t overthinking, they’re just looking to get hits
Batters tee off and usually score like a run or two in the first because the pitcher can’t do planning
Then in later innings as the pitcher gets a feel they dominate and take over and play lights out
The idea then is that great/good wolves suck in the early going because they have no threadfeel for a game with no thread in it, while town can kinda just do whatever because they are making the threadfeel
Essentially wolves are ****ed until they sette in because they don’t know what is going to be brought around them
Then and only then can they get comfy and start not wolfing *****tily
Don't really see any signs of him genuinely thinking about the game. It's all bluster - I AM SIR CHRIS THE MIGHTY WOLVES HAVE TO BE VOTING ME. Or like. THIS MAN TOOK A BAD VIG SHOT THEREFORE HE IS A WOLF. It's level 1, there's no depth to it, and I don't really think he believes any of those scum reads, just thinks it is easy to push/expected of him.
Think he has enough pride as a villager that if he wasn't caught up and didn't have his head in the game, he'd make an effort to do so. Instead he's just...content. Pressure on him mostly dissipated, someone did something that he could call wolfy and put vote on, but there's just no spark or drive there to actually solve.
He's a competent player. He's better than he's displayed this game probably as both alignments, but I've spent most of the last hour or so reading and re-reading his ISO and I just don't think this is a villager. Certainly not a villager who is supposed to be good at this game.
I think your reasoning on x=y being scum is bad. I think everyone's reasoning on him being scum is bad. Think there's almost 0% chance he's a wolf this game and that's a terrible lynch.
yo is the bolded hyperbole?
This is solid given what Tom knows. You can almost see him trying to piece together the setup/x=y's alignment based on him knowing I'm also a vig and like.
Already liked cantrip for town, but pending some poking around at the posts relating to claim i think the way he used it is extremely in line with towncantrip just trying to get some reads on people with it, whereas i think hed do something flashier with a scum crier role.
I like rhands process to start the day as well. Have sort of just been... steadily feeling better about him ever since i tried to wagon him day 1 i think he might be one of my top towns pre reread
Dont think anyone else said anything super noteworthy yet, besides a Thing related to Another Thing from factional chat, but im keeping that in reserve for now
Though his Rhand read going in wrong direction at lylo isn't a great look.
I prefer Vaimes because I think he’s scum and lynching him fulfills my wincon, but if we’re gonna use your doggy to kill people, we should probably be looking for Stark/Nightwatch scum toDay.
@Thousand: I’m convinced you are SK yes. I’m going to reread your iso with this info in mind.
If there’s multiple scum in stark/nightwatch, the role you claimed is meant to side with scum. Which you would’ve figured out yourself if you were indeed just a survivor. Which makes your poe all wrong.
please make the case vaimes is scummier than chris
I dare you
Man. Some of his interactions with Rhand/Chris would be pretty baller if he's a wolf.
Like. Sure, lolshin but does a scumteam that ostensibly thinks winds is vigilante really kill RE instead?
Valid question on surface, but we know Chris' role exists. Don't think they're too concerned about letting me shoot given they can just protect anyone I'm likely to shoot on the team.
RE1031 has died! She was:[spoiler=RE1031]Player: RE1031
Character: Gendry
Faction: Baratheon
Alignment: Town
Abilities: Blacksmith (Active) - Each night you may forge and give an item to another player. Your items include: one shot RoleCop, one shot Tracker, one shot Watcher. You cannot create more that two of any item throughout the course of the game, and each item will be usable alongside other abilities as long as it has the same target as the user's ability target.
Factional Win Conditions: Brother's United - [redacted until end game]
-or- Ours is the Fury - [redacted until end game]
oh *****. These are all info gifts...
Nevermind on that part tbh
Wait lol.
How has the fact that RE had a 1-shot rolecop as one of his gifts not been mentioned yet.
I was given his Watcher shot btw, but was forced to use it on the person I shot, so got no value out of it, beyond learning I shot someone (lol).
Fulfills the north remembers wincon because hes frey
Then if hes scum, great
But if not and it really is lylo, i immediately fulfill "Winter is coming" and one of the nights watch wincons via the game ending
Though those two are true regardless of the faction of any potential game ending mislynch.
So I'd rather just kill the most likely scum, which continues to feel like chris
At lylo, I don't think wolf!Tom goes 'man lynching one partner is really appealing, but I think just lynching my other partner is a more likely wolf hit'.
Think he tries to power-wolf, or at least explores the option of just winning that day.
Im just gonna leave out winds from being mafia tbh. Hes... just so likely to be SK here. In the offchance hes mafia full vig with, like, kj/gj/vaimes or some *****... whatever.
Maybe x=y should shoot him if hes got a shot but id still prefer hunger/kj aorn.
Anyway
Extra kills//bulletproof kami/winds/x=y//chris kami/winds/x=y//chris
(Not w/w, very unlikely v/v)
Player: RE1031
Character: Gendry
Faction: Baratheon
Alignment: Town
Abilities: Blacksmith (Active) - Each night you may forge and give an item to another player. Your items include: one shot RoleCop, one shot Tracker, one shot Watcher. You cannot create more that two of any item throughout the course of the game, and each item will be usable alongside other abilities as long as it has the same target as the user's ability target.
Player: Hunger
Character: Daenerys Targaryen
Faction: Targaryen
Alignment: Town
Abilities: Khaleesi (Active) - While you control the Iron Throne, you learn and have this ability. Passive: You may support your own claim to the throne.
[Khaleesi unlocked: Each night that you control the Iron Throne, you may Target a player and find out their alignment (not faction).]
I see no reason for a rolecop to be town in this setup
Hope thats not a trap i guess but
Occams razor imo
RE1031 has died! She was:[spoiler=RE1031]Player: RE1031
Character: Gendry
Faction: Baratheon
Alignment: Town
Abilities: Blacksmith (Active) - Each night you may forge and give an item to another player. Your items include: one shot RoleCop, one shot Tracker, one shot Watcher. You cannot create more that two of any item throughout the course of the game, and each item will be usable alongside other abilities as long as it has the same target as the user's ability target.
Factional Win Conditions: Brother's United - [redacted until end game]
-or- Ours is the Fury - [redacted until end game]
oh *****. These are all info gifts...
Nevermind on that part tbh
Wait lol.
How has the fact that RE had a 1-shot rolecop as one of his gifts not been mentioned yet.
I was given his Watcher shot btw, but was forced to use it on the person I shot, so got no value out of it, beyond learning I shot someone (lol).
Feel like this gives Shin increased wolf equity.
ive brought that up before i thought?
Anyway if its shin my guess is day rolecop, night roleblock
Dont currently see the point of rereading other than succesfully naming the scumteam as early as possible
Chris/rhand/shin/johnny/lngrr or smthing?
Ill be looking for a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat but... lets say low confidence...
Think i wanna vote johnny
Because shin is just rolecop and rhands role is obviously not important...
Whatever though
This is kind of worrisome with the knowledge that town wasn't as ****ed as it looked, though.
is it?
I think it really shows i did think we were ****ed and was therefore taking a big swing
Anyway i realized claiming it last night in stark chat that no nights watch members claimed our wincon
Wear no crowns: have no members control the iron throne
Take no sides: participate in the least lynches as a faction
That second one is why none of us were on wagon (except the day we needed numbers for kami lynch).
Shadow said solo factions wont help so currently NW is at 2 lynch votes, baratheons at 3...
So if we can lynch scum without me voting i can win 5 times @grape
But yeah i think thats at least part of why i voted where i voted this game you should probably be aware
I mean ill let kj claim his role just in case hes got something relevant, but basically i was trying to get shin to confirm with shadow he sees everything (aka he rolecopped kj after kj unlocked so make sure he can still see what would have been kjs old role) but... he didn't/doesnt understand what im asking/won't
Ftr, i also basically told shin that he could thunderdome me by lying and kj projected hard hed have lynched me...
But
Like we can lynch shin and you shoot vaimes so it doesnt matter i guess
Assuming shin does confirm kj and gj wasnt fakeclaiming roleblocks
Maybe some low poster
Don't love him tossing Rhand's name on here when he'd literally never mentioned Rhand to this point though.
Which is why I'm examining Tom and Vaimes. I'm expecting to come out still pretty sure they're town, but going in with open mind. I've literally never read either of them incorrectly and don't super expect this game to be the first time.
Pretty decent town reads on d1 Tom.
>If you add the "alright i guess not day 1" (chris/hunger/rod/re) im down to 7 candidates
Rhand/grape/tubba/johnny/last/kj/dv
Im aggressively null on rhand/tubba/johnny/kj
Grape/dv has a moderate to decent chance to contain a wolf
Last is scummy
Uh
vaimes
lngrr/1053/cantrip
kami/hr/shin
re/hunger
rhand/kj
grape/dv/chris/last
Moving chris down to my read instead of my likelihood of lynching him day 1
Removing rod/gj/tubba because literal nothing
No one in orange or red, separating positive from negative nulls (dark amd light gray) maybe those are reads
-
Hum. It's consistent at least, though 'wolf reading partners but not lynching them' is a Tom staple, tbh.
Pretty unlikely to be w/w.
Especially with everything else that was going on at the time.
This is less great though, following it.
Hum.
Tom's Chris/Vaimes interactions in this section is probably towniest thing he's done.
But accurately reading Vaimes as town isn't.. exactly difficult, I guess.
Nng.
Yeah, having trouble seeing this be w/w, this whole segment.
Even as a confirmed neutral who couldn't kill a chunk of the team/you had a wolf doc, and I was town reading you?
I don't recall how and when that info came to light.
And all of that doesn't stop you from analyzing the game and PoE'ing the scumteam.
I mean. True enough. It didn't.
Chaining a bunch of wolf lynches to pull the game back from lylo is fun.
I could have buried you today. Used you not dying in the night, used the fact that Shin's role doesn't make sense for him being the last wolf, used the fact that I'm the only person _that_ locked in on you being town, used the fact that you've done minimal active solving this game and coasted off of town reads and being king, used the fact that there's no way every Lannister was town.
I could have dropped a castle wall of death on your head and ridden off into the sunset with my win and you being lynched.
But I just. Couldn't.
I'm too sure you're town, and I don't have it in me to manufacture a case for my personal win at the expense of a town that never cast a single lynch vote for me this game despite me being an outed neutral.
Couldn't let you get mislynched for the loss again on mtgs either.
Not when I'm actually alive this time to keep that from happening.
So consider the knee still bent, and you still my king, even if you getting the kingship over people whose role actually benefits it was...really dumb.
But this does mean you need to suck it up and put some /work/ in.
I have literally no idea who you think the wolf is, I'm not even sure if you know you who think the wolf is.
If I'm gonna be your shield even when I need you dead, gonna need you to hit a wolf with me today.
God knows he'd do it in a heartbeat.
Back to my Tom iso.
Surprisingly, under.
Bottom 5 all town, even. Of course, the top bunch were probably all town too, wolves predictably in the middle to bottom third as per usual.
You really aren't making this easy on me, Tommy boy.
This is like. Your prototypical scum way of dealing with partners. Shade 'em, but ultimately push the other people instead.
Let's kill a wolf.
(Once I finish these errands.)
This feels pretty town, though, especially given he knew my role, and x=y was a wolf. Mm.
Is this a post a partner makes to another partner about their third partner?
[x] doubt
This whole string is pretty great in retrospect.
Pretty close to saying '**** it, it's always 1 of Shin/KJ'.
This is solid given what Tom knows. You can almost see him trying to piece together the setup/x=y's alignment based on him knowing I'm also a vig and like.
I just don't think he's a wolf doing this.
Tom's an okay wolf but he's not this good.
Though his Rhand read going in wrong direction at lylo isn't a great look.
Man. Some of his interactions with Rhand/Chris would be pretty baller if he's a wolf.
This sure is a vote count.
A chance it's literally all 4 wolves as the only 4 wagons...at lylo.
Valid question on surface, but we know Chris' role exists. Don't think they're too concerned about letting me shoot given they can just protect anyone I'm likely to shoot on the team.
Wait lol.
How has the fact that RE had a 1-shot rolecop as one of his gifts not been mentioned yet.
I was given his Watcher shot btw, but was forced to use it on the person I shot, so got no value out of it, beyond learning I shot someone (lol).
Feel like this gives Shin increased wolf equity.
At lylo, I don't think wolf!Tom goes 'man lynching one partner is really appealing, but I think just lynching my other partner is a more likely wolf hit'.
Think he tries to power-wolf, or at least explores the option of just winning that day.
This analysis somewhat points to KJ (loosely)?
Yep.
There are the roleblocks to consider though.
Anyway if its shin my guess is day rolecop, night roleblock
This is kind of worrisome with the knowledge that town wasn't as ****ed as it looked, though.
I think it really shows i did think we were ****ed and was therefore taking a big swing
Anyway i realized claiming it last night in stark chat that no nights watch members claimed our wincon
Wear no crowns: have no members control the iron throne
Take no sides: participate in the least lynches as a faction
That second one is why none of us were on wagon (except the day we needed numbers for kami lynch).
Shadow said solo factions wont help so currently NW is at 2 lynch votes, baratheons at 3...
So if we can lynch scum without me voting i can win 5 times
But yeah i think thats at least part of why i voted where i voted this game you should probably be aware
im just a role cop
Bran Stark
Ability: Third Eye- You check a person every night i will be told who they are and any abilities they have.
the information of who i checked is correct.
i waas at work lol
Do u want me to claim my check on you?
Tom is Jon Snow
He is literally a vanilla role, not a single ability besides his vote.
Want to have it all in one post, if you could
Well, sanity check me here. And we still need kj claim...
But shin has now claimed that neither kj or me could have roleblocked gj.
Thus its mechanically shin or vaimes
?
someone already posted my actions,
n1 i role copped DV/TW
n2 Cantrip
n3 GJ
n4 KJ
n5 Tom
Just get all the info in the thread for now while I'm here and looking through some things. KJ can claim any futher results later when he's here.
Wonder if youll ask the same questions i did
Dump everything of relevance that happened in Stark chat, if you could?
You know me, I'll get this right if I have all the info, just.
Feel pretty hamstrung atm.
KJ has to out his role, i will not out it for him lol
It's almost certainly you or KJ that is the final wolf, like.
I'm a little bit baffled by how you're playing this as either alignment, but if you are town, have you not considered that like.
There is a wolf alive, and it's very likely to be KJ? So why are you trying to withhold information, or not trying to solve.
Ftr, i also basically told shin that he could thunderdome me by lying and kj projected hard hed have lynched me...
But
Like we can lynch shin and you shoot vaimes so it doesnt matter i guess
Assuming shin does confirm kj and gj wasnt fakeclaiming roleblocks