Also, I wasn't going to say anything, but since people are actively lobbying for the iron throne and there's a good chance some of those people are mafia, there's a good chance there could be a consensus election with town on board which could muddle the interpretation of the role of who wins iron throne. I think we should spread out votes out so that each person only gets 1 vote for iron throne. If we do it this way, it will be really interesting to see what shadow does to solve the problem of having a million-way tie. Or, if scum decides to take power, then we know for that the throne person is scum and it's and easy next lynch. This is the weakest the iron throne position will be, given the relative power of an extra vote against a huge number of people, so now would be the time to make this move. Either we all tie (and probably no one gets power) or scum wins throne for a day and is immediately lynched.
@Highroller, let's make this easy. Do you think that GF is, overall, town, scum, or neutral?
I have no opinion on Grapefruit beyond a default neutral read.
You, on the other hand? Definitely suspicious of you. Your attempts to cast aspersions on me for not calling for a mass roleclaim despite the obvious reasons why - which I myself detailed in previous posts - were skeezy AF, and now you're attacking me for not mafia-reading Grapefruit despite blatantly bandwagoning him and adamantly refusing to give your reasons why you think he's suspicious. I'm not asking you for Donald Trump's tax returns, dude, I'm asking for why you think Grapefruit is the one we should be voting for. In fact, most of the people who have voted for Grapefruit today are now no longer voting for Grapefruit. Before Vaimes voted him, it was just you. So clearly it's really not that self-explanatory why Grapefruit definitely is the best lynch target.
So do you want to actually detail your rationale for this, or am I going to get yet another post of you stonewalling and failing to understand how burden of proof works?
I am kinda fine with voting HR... but mostly because I seemingly can't help but scumread.
Read: I have no good reason for justify suspicion against Highroller, but I'm still going to be antagonistic towards him despite openly acknowledging the fact that it's for no good reason.
Also, I wasn't going to say anything, but since people are actively lobbying for the iron throne and there's a good chance some of those people are mafia, there's a good chance there could be a consensus election with town on board which could muddle the interpretation of the role of who wins iron throne. I think we should spread out votes out so that each person only gets 1 vote for iron throne. If we do it this way, it will be really interesting to see what shadow does to solve the problem of having a million-way tie. Or, if scum decides to take power, then we know for that the throne person is scum and it's and easy next lynch. This is the weakest the iron throne position will be, given the relative power of an extra vote against a huge number of people, so now would be the time to make this move. Either we all tie (and probably no one gets power) or scum wins throne for a day and is immediately lynched.
... Ok, aside from the whole Prisoner's dilemma thing of actually getting the town to cooperate, is there any obvious problem with this?
I'm not sure yet how alternate wincons effect balance.
My gut says there's probably enough that are ~anti town, at least in unintended consequences, that 4 scum is more likely than 5.
19er with 5 scum is reasonable without that.
Powerful 4?
3 scum, plus a 2-3 person "evil" faction?
No mafia just a big factional free for all?
I'm not sure yet how alternate wincons effect balance.
5 mafia would be appropriate for 20 players in a game in which the only factions are "town" and "mafia." So, 5 mafia is ok for 20 towns who are united in a common goal of killing mafia.
Were there 5 mafia in this game, there would be 5 mafia in a game with 19 players - already a problem - and the game is set up so that the 14 townspeople are going to be subdivided into factions that have mechanical incentives not to work with each other.
So yeah, we're probably dealing with 4 mafia. (Unless we're dealing with something REALLY weird, like it's the Night King and he's the mafia and he can recruit people or some bonkers thing like that.)
I'm feeling better about 1053 for a very stupid reason now.
I'd be against spreading the vote out as it's just too easy to mess with expectations. If we take the 1053 plan and it's not a tie was it mafia breaking it for one of their own or to frame. Was is a random rogue townie wanting it for themselves. I also think it's valuable to put it on a townie who normally wouldn't be dealt with early and for mafia to take a stance against them. Which is why I am supporting Vaimes, he's a strongish town read and unlikely to be an early NK normally.
I'd be against spreading the vote out as it's just too easy to mess with expectations. If we take the 1053 plan and it's not a tie was it mafia breaking it for one of their own or to frame. Was is a random rogue townie wanting it for themselves. I also think it's valuable to put it on a townie who normally wouldn't be dealt with early and for mafia to take a stance against them. Which is why I am supporting Vaimes, he's a strongish town read and unlikely to be an early NK normally.
R=Oh, right.
Ok then, looks like Vaimes, First of his Name for the Iron Throne it is.
If they frame, we kill, and throne flips town, then we have more information that way too. If we agree that no matter what, throne dies then that should disincentivize town from voting with their faction. This actually gives us at least a framework for interpreting the result. Grapefruit, as someone who has been regularly scumread and doesn't seem to be a town (I mean team) player, I think you just jumped from neutral to scumlean for me. If someone wants to play for their faction rather than town as a whole, then either way voting them out is either really good (scum dead) or neutral (divisive town out).
Not Voting (5): Shinichi, Tubba Fett, Coballt, Lastwhisper, Cantripmancer
V/LA
Sir Chris through May 9th
Killjoy through the week (semi V/LA)
Last through the week (semi V/LA)
With 19 alive it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is May 14th at 1700 MST.
A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
When I am feeling better I am going to ter grapefruit apart for his horrific defense of shin.
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When I am feeling better I am going to ter grapefruit apart for his horrific defense of shin.
Maybe you should take a minute and realize your case is bad and Shin wasn't using that passage to explain his Shin read.
@1053 what information do we gain from the vote not being a tie in those worlds? If I'm remembering correctly the votes aren't made public so we gain nothing other than the target, which tells us basically nothing.
Grape, be real, I'm not going to explain how I'm going to react to the vote to death. I'll make my case after the vote. The more information I give you (and scum/other scum) now, the more you can use it to shape your vote.
Yeah, there we go. My guess was that Highroller was derping and didn't realize that you can't vote for yourself to take the throne.
Not at all interested in trying to tie the vote. That's basically giving mafia full control of the throne, be it to take for themselves, or to cast doubt on villagers. The idea of killing anyone who sits on the throne is ridiculous. And I don't want mafia having two votes, and I don't want any PRs they have to be unstoppable.
And then of course there's the matter of secondary win conditions. Mine don't conflict with lynching scum, and I'd honestly not even bother with this game if they did, so I'm going to pursue all of them to the best of my ability.
When I am feeling better I am going to ter grapefruit apart for his horrific defense of shin.
Maybe you should take a minute and realize your case is bad and Shin wasn't using that passage to explain his Shin read.
@1053 what information do we gain from the vote not being a tie in those worlds? If I'm remembering correctly the votes aren't made public so we gain nothing other than the target, which tells us basically nothing.
What was he doing?
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Grape, be real, I'm not going to explain how I'm going to react to the vote to death. I'll make my case after the vote. The more information I give you (and scum/other scum) now, the more you can use it to shape your vote.
sigh
There is no indication in the rules that the votes are made public. I've contacted the mod for an answer, but if the votes are private then this plan cannot work because there is no enforcement mechanism available to us. Other than killing the Throne recipient which is a bad idea if scum are aware of the plan.
@Chris sorry that was unclear, he was talking about his read on LW using the Rod read as evidence. Why it's obvious in context is because it flows from him using the HR read to talk about what LW should be doing. I disagree with his assessments overall (his insistence that LW should scum read HR for scum reading LW is particularly egregious) but I can follow the thread.
Ill go into detail later but this is what i got so far, honestly the ROD read is just because i don't think hes done enough tobe locked town for me so i find it supcest your still trying to read him as town.
So it's about LW then, very well.
"I find it suspect you are town reading Rod. So I put you as town."
In my experience when people try to shield people with meta against me I am usually the one who is correct. Like I understand Shin is a bit rambly but I feel like I got the point. That and his follow up line about "playing like I always do" is a very big "uh oh" moment.
I am leaning town on you Grape because it would be very audacious of a scum player to provoke the me after the game I just had, so I think you'd tread carefully here in either a defense of a buddy or a white knighting a town player.
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1) It tests cooperation. You have already shown that you don't believe in it and heavily hinted at what you do at baseline in a prisoner's dilemma situation. Info gained whether or not people agree to do the plan.
2) Scum have to make the difficult decision about whether they should intentionally give up power or take the risk. Killing the throne gives us info about the scum either way. Seeing who they intentionally targeted also gives a lot of information. Also, giving probably a scum team of 4 one extra vote now when there are 15 town is not that big of a deal. Again, not going to discuss possibilities or how I would interpret every single outcome in detail before we see who gets the throne--I'll do that regardless and, as you've already pointed out, telling scum exactly how you're going to react is just giving them unnecessary information. Unless of course, you're scum and are digging for extra information?
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1053: First, DV recanted the entirety of the claim, not just the neutral alignment.
I dislike the idea that we "get information on scum" if we kill the iron throne and it's town. What info do we get? How is this worth a wasted day? What do we do the next time?
And the extra vote is the least interesting part of the Iron Throne. Whoever's on the Iron Throne can't have their abilities interrupted. That means if scum get the throne, any town protective role is effectively disabled. This is what we should be worried about, not the extra vote.
1) It tests cooperation. You have already shown that you don't believe in it and heavily hinted at what you do at baseline in a prisoner's dilemma situation. Info gained whether or not people agree to do the plan.
Unless there is broad agreement that the value of this is high then it isn't testing anything. I don't see a benefit and I see a cost. To put it in prisoners dilemma terms it would be a dilemma where both cooperating gives 0, you being betrayed gives 0, and you doing the betraying gives 1.
2) Scum have to make the difficult decision about whether they should intentionally give up power or take the risk. Killing the throne gives us info about the scum either way. Seeing who they intentionally targeted also gives a lot of information. Also, giving probably a scum team of 4 one extra vote now when there are 15 town is not that big of a deal. Again, not going to discuss possibilities or how I would interpret every single outcome in detail before we see who gets the throne--I'll do that regardless and, as you've already pointed out, telling scum exactly how you're going to react is just giving them unnecessary information. Unless of course, you're scum and are digging for extra information?
I've now confirmed that votes aren't made public. So let's say we attempt this plan and we find out that rather than whatever happens in a tie (which I forgot to ask) it's announced that GJ is the King and he survives the night. We learn nothing because mafia were aware of the plan. They chose to get us to play a guessing game of did they put it on one of their own or on a townie and hope we'll kill them for them. I'm telling you how I'd react because the plan gives us nothing of value at the cost of putting it on a townie who otherwise wouldn't be a threat. There is also the point that even if we did all cooperate there is no evidence that we'd gain anything for doing so. Show me a reward then I might be interest in trying to make this happen.
@Chris I'd interpret that sentence as "I find your Rod read a red flag because he hasn't earned a town read but it doesn't outweigh everything else." Now because it's Shin there doesn't seem to be an everything else (in fact the only everything else seems to be another red flag wrt HR. I don't particularly care how you read me right now, I'm confident this is town!Shin.
May I ask why you are confident precisely (if you have said so before. please forgive me I was bedridden all of yesterday) also why I should take your confidence as credible? What is your history and accuracy with Shin?
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I still hate that Shin hasn't really instantiated on his scum read on Rodemy, like I can argue he's town for my reasons and how shallow they may is quite subjective, but for the most part he hasn't pointed out anything that was really scummy from him, which is weird since even I pointed out posts I didn't like him Rodemy who I initially had as a lock town from his entrance
That's still the problem I have, like Shin is arguing that not only is my read shallow, but that Rodemy is scummy... and he still has yet to place his vote
You can't really deny that it looks like he's creating a narrative @Grape
I and you both know we are treating him different for the sake of who he is, not due to his context, mechanically, like usual, he is quite scummy. I think his overall attitude is towny outside of that, and I will employ different tactics to read my brother even though I initially jumped on him
I would rather in the meantime, focus on other people, if we are dead set on lynching Shin, we still have 8 other days to find other scum (if he is scum), and Shin has been the forefront of many pages, which at this point it's just pointless to continue this conversation
@Everyone
What are your scum leans outside Shinichi, if he even is one?
Shinichi
Grape
Cantrip
HR?
Honestly Grape telling me I'm wrong on Shinichi with little to no evidence reinforces that I'm right because the majority of the disagreements where I scum read someone and he defends them I'm right.
May I ask why you are confident precisely (if you have said so before. please forgive me I was bedridden all of yesterday) also why I should take your confidence as credible? What is your history and accuracy with Shin?
I've played probably 8ish games with Shin. After reading him incorrectly for the first few I've been consistently able to arrive at his town game.
As for what gives me confidence it's a combination of tone, style, and substance. He feels relaxed in his tone hasn't shown any signs of tightness. While it isn't a fast rule he tends to stick more stringently to his out of date catch ups as town. As scum he's more prone towards real time interaction and focusing in on specific people. Which is slightly different to his town game which also shows a focus but is likely to be on people he's familiar and friendly with. Most importantly I think his more explained reads are likely to come from town. His HR stance of "he's wrong and feels townie but I don't want to commit to it while he's pushing wrong things" feels more like a town stance than a scum one. And his consistent bashing of multiple people reading more into Rod's opening is the right choice. Yes it's buried in a ton of text but the opinions there feel like an organic town mindset to me.
Shadow didn't give my fake day kill anything. I'm willing to town read Rodemy for that alone period.
uhhm confirmation doesn't equate to alignment, it's more likely that as a vig he's town, but not definite, I would hope he dies soon though if that's the case because I would have questions if he continues to live on and on as the days pass
May I ask why you are confident precisely (if you have said so before. please forgive me I was bedridden all of yesterday) also why I should take your confidence as credible? What is your history and accuracy with Shin?
I've played probably 8ish games with Shin. After reading him incorrectly for the first few I've been consistently able to arrive at his town game.
As for what gives me confidence it's a combination of tone, style, and substance. He feels relaxed in his tone hasn't shown any signs of tightness. While it isn't a fast rule he tends to stick more stringently to his out of date catch ups as town. As scum he's more prone towards real time interaction and focusing in on specific people. Which is slightly different to his town game which also shows a focus but is likely to be on people he's familiar and friendly with. Most importantly I think his more explained reads are likely to come from town. His HR stance of "he's wrong and feels townie but I don't want to commit to it while he's pushing wrong things" feels more like a town stance than a scum one. And his consistent bashing of multiple people reading more into Rod's opening is the right choice. Yes it's buried in a ton of text but the opinions there feel like an organic town mindset to me.
So you can only find his "Town games"? Cause like statistically speaking just saying he's town is more likely right when playing multiple games.
If you can't find his scum game your opinion is basically worthless.
Shadow didn't give my fake day kill anything. I'm willing to town read Rodemy for that alone period.
uhhm confirmation doesn't equate to alignment, it's more likely that as a vig he's town, but not definite, I would hope he dies soon though if that's the case because I would have questions if he continues to live on and on as the days pass
Scum having day kills is rare.
Scum with day chat approving a Shinichi kill exists only in the fevered dreams of a madman or Grape I guess.
Shadow didn't give my fake day kill anything. I'm willing to town read Rodemy for that alone period.
uhhm confirmation doesn't equate to alignment, it's more likely that as a vig he's town, but not definite, I would hope he dies soon though if that's the case because I would have questions if he continues to live on and on as the days pass
Scum having day kills is rare.
Scum with day chat approving a Shinichi kill exists only in the fevered dreams of a madman or Grape I guess.
ok fair enough, but this is also Rodemy who in the chance of being scum, probably wouldn't care much for the advice of his partners
@DV
Check my ISO, I linked a scum game of his, keep in mind he was a 3p faction but like evil is evil
I nailed him to the wall in the game you hosted that he got replaced out of, and that was the only reason he survived. He feels basically the same to me from that game, I feel comfortable pursing this to see if I understand his game.
@DV
Check my ISO, I linked a scum game of his, keep in mind he was a 3p faction but like evil is evil
I nailed him to the wall in the game you hosted that he got replaced out of, and that was the only reason he survived. He feels basically the same to me from that game, I feel comfortable pursing this to see if I understand his game.
I honestly forgot about that game, if I wasnt busy I'd ISO that game...
@DV I'm a town clearer not a scum hunter. It's how I play by default and it's what I remember. I've never to my memory called Shin town and been wrong.
Also I decided to take a look. Since Pirates we've been in 2 games together where we were both town, Ghostbusters and DitF, and while your memory of the first is of you being correct and my being a buffoon I was actually closer to right when we were butting heads than you were (but still wildly off base). As for Death in the Family I was correct on all my town clears excepting Rod, which was a rather unfortunate misfire, but not one we were in disagreement over. But please point me to examples of us disagreeing and you being vindicated.
Also my coordination point was that your reply less than a minute after he posted it felt coordinated in a chat, at the time I incorrectly thought faction chats had day chat. I did not think it made the 2 of you scum together.
Also my coordination point was that your reply less than a minute after he posted it felt coordinated in a chat, at the time I incorrectly thought faction chats had day chat. I did not think it made the 2 of you scum together.
Oh I understand.
When you have been daychating as mafia this whole game it must be hard to remember the rest of us are not plotting in the shadows.
@Hr, why don't you ISO me? I feel like if you had you would have your answer. Mainly, I thought GF hopped on me with a vote even though he isn't sure I am scum and has been saying he thinks it is more likely I am 3rd party.
Also, this game will go a lot better if you don't put words in my mouth. I didn't attack you for not mafia reading GF. I asked why you were wondering what the case on GF was. For someone with asked neutral read on him, not sure why you seem to be concerned about his wagon, or why you wouldn't take a stand on it one way or another if you're concerned.
Also, I don't have burden of proof for why I am voting. I don't owe you an explanation for the people I vote.
Read: I have no good reason for justify suspicion against Highroller, but I'm still going to be antagonistic towards him despite openly acknowledging the fact that it's for no good reason.
... antagonistic is a strong word, but essentially yes.
Because you said you were going to see if they could possibly come from town. And it's absurd that you're claiming the subtle difference between our handling of it is so significant that you see no way that it could ever come from town, but have no issue with DV or HR. Also you're just making crap up about LW. There are lot's of reasons to suspect him but he implicitly agreed with you and said the faction thing was a bad reason to vote him but he liked voting LnG anyway. You also started pushing me for reasons you never explained to my knowledge so that's why I have to go on.
Let me rephrase what I said originally, then. Not whether your pushes *can* come from town, whether they *do* come from town. Anything *can* come from town, really, barring a poor scum performance.
Did I not already explain my townleans on Highroller and D_V? You are a considerably different player from the two of them. As previously seen from D_V in this game, he's prone to jumping onto people for simple reasoning, and HR has used questionable (to me, at least) logic in the past, regarding mafia theory. Not that I loved their votes, but it's more reasonable (or rather, excusable) coming from them.
And if you want to push Wisp for the way he handled LnG then that makes sense because his handling of it was truly bizarre and is one of the things bugging me about Wisp. And why I keep asking everyone about why they think my handling of LnG was scummy.
I did call out that very post when I cased Wisp. For slightly different reasoning, but that was something I noticed.
If I said that your way of handling LnG was scummy, I don't recall it. I don't believe I did, because (I think) I found it unusual more than anything.
~~~
While I was thinking about the game, a distance away from the game, another theory came to me. Killjoy and 1053 are buddies. 1053's playing how scum usually play. Very little engagement, and one well-written post with their thoughts on the game collected. I don't agree that what they've said so far equates to noob town, and any reason for believing they could be noob town requires you first to strongly underestimate them. KJ's thoughts on me ring as artificial. He's stalling on a read on me, with the excuse that my process may come from town, but until I actually do stuff, he can't give the read. Except I've done stuff. Him sheeping tom's read of 1053 feels bad - so potentially a buddy trying to lock another buddy to the towncore. Need to also revisit Cantrip's thoughts on me as well - iirc - he first called me out for not doing many AI things, but then questioned KJ's neutral read of me, which strikes me as odd. (Though it may have been another player who did that.)
...Is what I'd say, but I've caught up now, and I'm significantly less sure on 1053. I'm going to think about their theory on how we should be voting for the Iron Throne, whether the logic is sound and if there are no flaws in the plan. The thought behind it seems town motivated, at least.
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Hey Grapefruit so after reviewing your reasoning I disagree. I feel like Shin's responses to me have been pretty tight and I don't get a relaxed vibe at all. I guess we'll just have to have a battle of wits and personality to decide who will get their way.
(Hint probably me)
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So working on catching up and haven't read the last few pages, but I did come across this and either after 6 times rereading the OP I am just blind at the mention of a 5 man scum team or Highroller slipped. Also somewhat strange that he says if scum have daychat when it's in the OP and despite my limited amount of focus on this game pretty sure I remember it being brought up in thread. Sorta smells like trying to be extra coy and the whole, "guys, lets avoid mafia on the throne OK!" just feels forced.
Can someone please explain to me why Grapefruit is the leading wagon?
Can you explain why he shouldn't be?
What an incredibly unhelpful post!
No, seriously, what is the reason for the Grapefruit wagon? You, for example, jumped on it with no explanation.
Regarding the Iron Throne: If the mafia have daychat, that means one of them is likely to start out with 4 votes just right off the bat. Even without daychat, we are still very likely to be at a disadvantage from the get-go. A mafia on the throne would be bad news for any town. We should work to avoid that.
Personally, I think the vote would best go to either Vaimes or myself. Vaimes because I agree that we're dealing with TownVaimes, and myself because I think pretty much everyone who's played with me in a previous game has said, "Yeah, Highroller's in keeping with his past behavior."
Vote: Highroller
Also, lets put me on the throne. It's my birthright.
Am i missing something? Where does he mention 5 mafia?
So working on catching up and haven't read the last few pages, but I did come across this and either after 6 times rereading the OP I am just blind at the mention of a 5 man scum team or Highroller slipped. Also somewhat strange that he says if scum have daychat when it's in the OP and despite my limited amount of focus on this game pretty sure I remember it being brought up in thread. Sorta smells like trying to be extra coy and the whole, "guys, lets avoid mafia on the throne OK!" just feels forced.Vote: Highroller
Also, lets put me on the throne. It's my birthright.
That is...very potentially a slip.
I don't see a mention of scumteam size in the OP. Could be 4 or 5 depending on if there's a neutral?
We have 1 or 2 neutral that have outted, so i would assume based on stats its either 4 or 5 mafia anyways. I would think any player knowlegble in balance or the game state could figure that out. So I don't beleive its a slip from hunger.
If they frame, we kill, and throne flips town, then we have more information that way too. If we agree that no matter what, throne dies then that should disincentivize town from voting with their faction. This actually gives us at least a framework for interpreting the result. Grapefruit, as someone who has been regularly scumread and doesn't seem to be a town (I mean team) player, I think you just jumped from neutral to scumlean for me. If someone wants to play for their faction rather than town as a whole, then either way voting them out is either really good (scum dead) or neutral (divisive town out).
Vote Grapefruit
If mafia frame, we kill, and throne flips town - what kind of information do we gain from that? If I'm not missing anything, it seems more like we've lost a day. Could you give an example of the kind of information we'd gain from this strategy? Right now, all I'm seeing is wine.
What gives you the impression that Grape has been playing for their faction rather than town as a whole?
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Taking the player list:
1. KamikazeArchon
2. Vaimes
3. Sir Chris
4. Cantripmancer
5. Shinichi
6. Rhand
7. Hunger: townlean
8. Grapefruit21
9. Tubba Fett
10. LnGrrrR
11. Gentleman (formerly Cobalt)
12. Highroller
13. Rodemy
14. RE1031
15. 1053nm
16. Lastwhisper
17. Killjoy
18. D_V
19. tomsloger
1 should vote for 2, 2 for 3, ..., 19 for 1. Can write it all out with names if that is helpful/clearer.
Also Tom: effort is key
And I just missed this part:
I have no opinion on Grapefruit beyond a default neutral read.
You, on the other hand? Definitely suspicious of you. Your attempts to cast aspersions on me for not calling for a mass roleclaim despite the obvious reasons why - which I myself detailed in previous posts - were skeezy AF, and now you're attacking me for not mafia-reading Grapefruit despite blatantly bandwagoning him and adamantly refusing to give your reasons why you think he's suspicious. I'm not asking you for Donald Trump's tax returns, dude, I'm asking for why you think Grapefruit is the one we should be voting for. In fact, most of the people who have voted for Grapefruit today are now no longer voting for Grapefruit. Before Vaimes voted him, it was just you. So clearly it's really not that self-explanatory why Grapefruit definitely is the best lynch target.
So do you want to actually detail your rationale for this, or am I going to get yet another post of you stonewalling and failing to understand how burden of proof works?
Read: I have no good reason for justify suspicion against Highroller, but I'm still going to be antagonistic towards him despite openly acknowledging the fact that it's for no good reason.
... Ok, aside from the whole Prisoner's dilemma thing of actually getting the town to cooperate, is there any obvious problem with this?
Also, hey Gentleman Johnny. Good to see you.
My gut says there's probably enough that are ~anti town, at least in unintended consequences, that 4 scum is more likely than 5.
19er with 5 scum is reasonable without that.
Powerful 4?
3 scum, plus a 2-3 person "evil" faction?
No mafia just a big factional free for all?
Were there 5 mafia in this game, there would be 5 mafia in a game with 19 players - already a problem - and the game is set up so that the 14 townspeople are going to be subdivided into factions that have mechanical incentives not to work with each other.
So yeah, we're probably dealing with 4 mafia. (Unless we're dealing with something REALLY weird, like it's the Night King and he's the mafia and he can recruit people or some bonkers thing like that.)
The possibility did occur to me, but I don't think shadowlancerx is THAT much of a bastard mod.
I'd be against spreading the vote out as it's just too easy to mess with expectations. If we take the 1053 plan and it's not a tie was it mafia breaking it for one of their own or to frame. Was is a random rogue townie wanting it for themselves. I also think it's valuable to put it on a townie who normally wouldn't be dealt with early and for mafia to take a stance against them. Which is why I am supporting Vaimes, he's a strongish town read and unlikely to be an early NK normally.
Ok then, looks like Vaimes, First of his Name for the Iron Throne it is.
Vote Grapefruit
-All men must serve.
Shinichi (6): Killjoy, Sir Chris, D_V, Highroller, Rodemy, KamikazeArchon
Grapefruit21 (3): LnGrrrR, Vaimes, 1053nm
Lastwhisper (3): RE1031, tomsloger, Grapefruit21
LnGrrrR (1): Rhand
Highroller (1): Hunger
Not Voting (5): Shinichi, Tubba Fett, Coballt, Lastwhisper, Cantripmancer
V/LA
Sir Chris through May 9th
Killjoy through the week (semi V/LA)
Last through the week (semi V/LA)
With 19 alive it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is May 14th at 1700 MST.
A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
When I am feeling better I am going to ter grapefruit apart for his horrific defense of shin.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Maybe you should take a minute and realize your case is bad and Shin wasn't using that passage to explain his Shin read.
@1053 what information do we gain from the vote not being a tie in those worlds? If I'm remembering correctly the votes aren't made public so we gain nothing other than the target, which tells us basically nothing.
Not at all interested in trying to tie the vote. That's basically giving mafia full control of the throne, be it to take for themselves, or to cast doubt on villagers. The idea of killing anyone who sits on the throne is ridiculous. And I don't want mafia having two votes, and I don't want any PRs they have to be unstoppable.
And then of course there's the matter of secondary win conditions. Mine don't conflict with lynching scum, and I'd honestly not even bother with this game if they did, so I'm going to pursue all of them to the best of my ability.
What was he doing?
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
sigh
There is no indication in the rules that the votes are made public. I've contacted the mod for an answer, but if the votes are private then this plan cannot work because there is no enforcement mechanism available to us. Other than killing the Throne recipient which is a bad idea if scum are aware of the plan.
Ill go into detail later but this is what i got so far, honestly the ROD read is just because i don't think hes done enough tobe locked town for me so i find it supcest your still trying to read him as town.
So it's about LW then, very well.
"I find it suspect you are town reading Rod. So I put you as town."
In my experience when people try to shield people with meta against me I am usually the one who is correct. Like I understand Shin is a bit rambly but I feel like I got the point. That and his follow up line about "playing like I always do" is a very big "uh oh" moment.
I am leaning town on you Grape because it would be very audacious of a scum player to provoke the me after the game I just had, so I think you'd tread carefully here in either a defense of a buddy or a white knighting a town player.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
2) Scum have to make the difficult decision about whether they should intentionally give up power or take the risk. Killing the throne gives us info about the scum either way. Seeing who they intentionally targeted also gives a lot of information. Also, giving probably a scum team of 4 one extra vote now when there are 15 town is not that big of a deal. Again, not going to discuss possibilities or how I would interpret every single outcome in detail before we see who gets the throne--I'll do that regardless and, as you've already pointed out, telling scum exactly how you're going to react is just giving them unnecessary information. Unless of course, you're scum and are digging for extra information?
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
I dislike the idea that we "get information on scum" if we kill the iron throne and it's town. What info do we get? How is this worth a wasted day? What do we do the next time?
And the extra vote is the least interesting part of the Iron Throne. Whoever's on the Iron Throne can't have their abilities interrupted. That means if scum get the throne, any town protective role is effectively disabled. This is what we should be worried about, not the extra vote.
Unless there is broad agreement that the value of this is high then it isn't testing anything. I don't see a benefit and I see a cost. To put it in prisoners dilemma terms it would be a dilemma where both cooperating gives 0, you being betrayed gives 0, and you doing the betraying gives 1.
I've now confirmed that votes aren't made public. So let's say we attempt this plan and we find out that rather than whatever happens in a tie (which I forgot to ask) it's announced that GJ is the King and he survives the night. We learn nothing because mafia were aware of the plan. They chose to get us to play a guessing game of did they put it on one of their own or on a townie and hope we'll kill them for them. I'm telling you how I'd react because the plan gives us nothing of value at the cost of putting it on a townie who otherwise wouldn't be a threat. There is also the point that even if we did all cooperate there is no evidence that we'd gain anything for doing so. Show me a reward then I might be interest in trying to make this happen.
@Chris I'd interpret that sentence as "I find your Rod read a red flag because he hasn't earned a town read but it doesn't outweigh everything else." Now because it's Shin there doesn't seem to be an everything else (in fact the only everything else seems to be another red flag wrt HR. I don't particularly care how you read me right now, I'm confident this is town!Shin.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
That's still the problem I have, like Shin is arguing that not only is my read shallow, but that Rodemy is scummy... and he still has yet to place his vote
You can't really deny that it looks like he's creating a narrative @Grape
I and you both know we are treating him different for the sake of who he is, not due to his context, mechanically, like usual, he is quite scummy. I think his overall attitude is towny outside of that, and I will employ different tactics to read my brother even though I initially jumped on him
I would rather in the meantime, focus on other people, if we are dead set on lynching Shin, we still have 8 other days to find other scum (if he is scum), and Shin has been the forefront of many pages, which at this point it's just pointless to continue this conversation
What are your scum leans outside Shinichi, if he even is one?
Shinichi
Grape
Cantrip
HR?
Honestly Grape telling me I'm wrong on Shinichi with little to no evidence reinforces that I'm right because the majority of the disagreements where I scum read someone and he defends them I'm right.
Shadow didn't give my fake day kill anything. I'm willing to town read Rodemy for that alone period.
I've played probably 8ish games with Shin. After reading him incorrectly for the first few I've been consistently able to arrive at his town game.
As for what gives me confidence it's a combination of tone, style, and substance. He feels relaxed in his tone hasn't shown any signs of tightness. While it isn't a fast rule he tends to stick more stringently to his out of date catch ups as town. As scum he's more prone towards real time interaction and focusing in on specific people. Which is slightly different to his town game which also shows a focus but is likely to be on people he's familiar and friendly with. Most importantly I think his more explained reads are likely to come from town. His HR stance of "he's wrong and feels townie but I don't want to commit to it while he's pushing wrong things" feels more like a town stance than a scum one. And his consistent bashing of multiple people reading more into Rod's opening is the right choice. Yes it's buried in a ton of text but the opinions there feel like an organic town mindset to me.
So you can only find his "Town games"? Cause like statistically speaking just saying he's town is more likely right when playing multiple games.
If you can't find his scum game your opinion is basically worthless.
Scum having day kills is rare.
Scum with day chat approving a Shinichi kill exists only in the fevered dreams of a madman or Grape I guess.
Check my ISO, I linked a scum game of his, keep in mind he was a 3p faction but like evil is evil
I nailed him to the wall in the game you hosted that he got replaced out of, and that was the only reason he survived. He feels basically the same to me from that game, I feel comfortable pursing this to see if I understand his game.
Also I decided to take a look. Since Pirates we've been in 2 games together where we were both town, Ghostbusters and DitF, and while your memory of the first is of you being correct and my being a buffoon I was actually closer to right when we were butting heads than you were (but still wildly off base). As for Death in the Family I was correct on all my town clears excepting Rod, which was a rather unfortunate misfire, but not one we were in disagreement over. But please point me to examples of us disagreeing and you being vindicated.
Also my coordination point was that your reply less than a minute after he posted it felt coordinated in a chat, at the time I incorrectly thought faction chats had day chat. I did not think it made the 2 of you scum together.
Oh I understand.
When you have been daychating as mafia this whole game it must be hard to remember the rest of us are not plotting in the shadows.
Also, this game will go a lot better if you don't put words in my mouth. I didn't attack you for not mafia reading GF. I asked why you were wondering what the case on GF was. For someone with asked neutral read on him, not sure why you seem to be concerned about his wagon, or why you wouldn't take a stand on it one way or another if you're concerned.
Also, I don't have burden of proof for why I am voting. I don't owe you an explanation for the people I vote.
... antagonistic is a strong word, but essentially yes.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Did I not already explain my townleans on Highroller and D_V? You are a considerably different player from the two of them. As previously seen from D_V in this game, he's prone to jumping onto people for simple reasoning, and HR has used questionable (to me, at least) logic in the past, regarding mafia theory. Not that I loved their votes, but it's more reasonable (or rather, excusable) coming from them. I did call out that very post when I cased Wisp. For slightly different reasoning, but that was something I noticed.
If I said that your way of handling LnG was scummy, I don't recall it. I don't believe I did, because (I think) I found it unusual more than anything.
~~~
While I was thinking about the game, a distance away from the game, another theory came to me. Killjoy and 1053 are buddies. 1053's playing how scum usually play. Very little engagement, and one well-written post with their thoughts on the game collected. I don't agree that what they've said so far equates to noob town, and any reason for believing they could be noob town requires you first to strongly underestimate them. KJ's thoughts on me ring as artificial. He's stalling on a read on me, with the excuse that my process may come from town, but until I actually do stuff, he can't give the read. Except I've done stuff. Him sheeping tom's read of 1053 feels bad - so potentially a buddy trying to lock another buddy to the towncore. Need to also revisit Cantrip's thoughts on me as well - iirc - he first called me out for not doing many AI things, but then questioned KJ's neutral read of me, which strikes me as odd. (Though it may have been another player who did that.)
...Is what I'd say, but I've caught up now, and I'm significantly less sure on 1053. I'm going to think about their theory on how we should be voting for the Iron Throne, whether the logic is sound and if there are no flaws in the plan. The thought behind it seems town motivated, at least.
(Hint probably me)
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Does that mean i should scum read you, since you think i am town again. I am so scared :O.
Am i missing something? Where does he mention 5 mafia?
We have 1 or 2 neutral that have outted, so i would assume based on stats its either 4 or 5 mafia anyways. I would think any player knowlegble in balance or the game state could figure that out. So I don't beleive its a slip from hunger.
What gives you the impression that Grape has been playing for their faction rather than town as a whole?