KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
V/LA
Sir Chris through May 9th
Killjoy through the week
Lastwhisper through the week (semi V/LA)
Shinichi from May 9th-10th
Rodemy through May 12th
With 19 alive it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is May 14th at 1700 MST.
A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
I'm not feeling a lot of movement. Why's that? Question directed to everyone.
This usually suggests scum are happy with where the votes are. So either they've settled on bussing one (or more) of their buddies, or the main wagons are town and there's no need for them to disturb that.
Agree with the first, but there's an important possibility you've left out here. No wagons are even at half the kill threshold, so the scum might be happy with the shape of the wagons simply because the wagons are so weak.
I'm not feeling a lot of movement. Why's that? Question directed to everyone.
This usually suggests scum are happy with where the votes are. So either they've settled on bussing one (or more) of their buddies, or the main wagons are town and there's no need for them to disturb that.
Agree with the first, but there's an important possibility you've left out here. No wagons are even at half the kill threshold, so the scum might be happy with the shape of the wagons simply because the wagons are so weak.
While that's true, piling on nearer the end of the phase is pretty common, even if there isn't strong belief the wagon will flip scum.
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When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
At least 8 people haven't posted meaningful content in the last 48 hours. It's beneficial for my gamestate read if this stagnant scum are happy with things is right and I decidedly don't think that's the case. I'm pretty sure it's just that people aren't here.
I'm not feeling a lot of movement. Why's that? Question directed to everyone.
This usually suggests scum are happy with where the votes are. So either they've settled on bussing one (or more) of their buddies, or the main wagons are town and there's no need for them to disturb that.
Agree with the first, but there's an important possibility you've left out here. No wagons are even at half the kill threshold, so the scum might be happy with the shape of the wagons simply because the wagons are so weak.
@DV: What's your current Chris read, and why?
I agree with his pushes and when he is here he seems town, however, its a light town read. If someone made a scum case I'd listen to them at the very least. Its one of those things where I think he's town, but part of me is going mmmm. I'm not very interested in pushing him day one to figure it out since I feel that with the way he posts(IE the sheer weight behind its posts) it will eventually become more clear to me of what I think his alignment is.
At least 8 people haven't posted meaningful content in the last 48 hours. It's beneficial for my gamestate read if this stagnant scum are happy with things is right and I decidedly don't think that's the case. I'm pretty sure it's just that people aren't here.
I'm not feeling a lot of movement. Why's that? Question directed to everyone.
This usually suggests scum are happy with where the votes are. So either they've settled on bussing one (or more) of their buddies, or the main wagons are town and there's no need for them to disturb that.
Agree with the first, but there's an important possibility you've left out here. No wagons are even at half the kill threshold, so the scum might be happy with the shape of the wagons simply because the wagons are so weak.
@DV: What's your current Chris read, and why?
Is it even common to hit a threshold this big? I normally don't see majority get reached early on when they're pretty big.
@Shin no need to apologize. You had announced V/LA. It's cool. It was more an observation than assigning blame. I hate when stagnation reads get incorrectly applied. I find them much more meaningful in short games than long ones.
My point about the disconnect on DV talking about how he feels better about shin being scum because I disagree with him and I'm bad town, while scum reading me. What did you think I was asking about when you said it was bias?
As for the second post I think clearing LW for volume is a bad idea. He's a high poster as either alignment. LnG I agree isn't mafia. KA and KJ have both just felt off in small amounts. KJ had a DV read early that felt fake and then evaluated DV from nothing when I asked him about him yesterday. Which feels slightly off but not enough for a read. With KA it's way too early for this sort of read but it's a wolfy pop-in's thing. He's commenting on whatever the major current event is and not much else.
For some reason I thought you meant personal bias.
My point about the disconnect on DV talking about how he feels better about shin being scum because I disagree with him and I'm bad town, while scum reading me. What did you think I was asking about when you said it was bias?
As for the second post I think clearing LW for volume is a bad idea. He's a high poster as either alignment. LnG I agree isn't mafia. KA and KJ have both just felt off in small amounts. KJ had a DV read early that felt fake and then evaluated DV from nothing when I asked him about him yesterday. Which feels slightly off but not enough for a read. With KA it's way too early for this sort of read but it's a wolfy pop-in's thing. He's commenting on whatever the major current event is and not much else.
For some reason I thought you meant personal bias.
I'll take a look at the post if I can find it.
I was asking if I was being biased in seeing it. And looking at my ISO I haven't made the case coherently so I'll do it this way. In 1149 DV talks about my Shin read as if he believes I'm town (as in I'm usually wrong when we butt heads). He does all this while having a vote on me. Which means he'd think I'm scum in which case I'm not wrong I'm just pushing an agenda. He only gives two justifications for voting me. This this 700 posts earlier:
@Everyone
What are your scum leans outside Shinichi, if he even is one?
Shinichi
Grape
Cantrip
HR?
Honestly Grape telling me I'm wrong on Shinichi with little to no evidence reinforces that I'm right because the majority of the disagreements where I scum read someone and he defends them I'm right.
Like I'm pretty sure I'm not being blinded by my own bias and this is just a mindset slip.
Grape: I made a new read on DV because my old one was based off beginning of the game DV, and he's done a lot since then. MY read was stale so I decided the best way to answer your question was to ISO him and make that post.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Grape: I made a new read on DV because my old one was based off beginning of the game DV, and he's done a lot since then. MY read was stale so I decided the best way to answer your question was to ISO him and make that post.
That's fair, I just was expecting some remnant of that read. But that really isn't enough to base a read off regardless.
Unvote, Vote Shinichi. I believe either Shinichi or LastWhisper is the best lynch for today, and of them, Shinichi is the currently the only one who actually stands a chance of being lynched.
and Grape is wrong 9 times out of 10 with these arguments with me.
Taking a break from my normally scheduled morning catch up for this. Hey dude. Bro. My man. What are you getting at. Are you just trying to tilt me? Or is this a way for you to catch scum? Because you should realize as I've pointed out this isn't true. We had 3 games. I looked at them and we were pretty much even. I missed massively on Kpaca and you missed big on GJ in playstation all the while telling me I was an absolute idiot or not reading the game for not buying your town read of him. I was wrong on Vaimes in DitF and I don't remember your read on Vaimes there, but Tom sure had that one right. You're acting like we have this massive history of butting heads over town reads but it's basically 1 person I strongly town read and was wrong on (Kpaca in PS) and that's largely it. So drop it or give more examples, because you have no standing to be making ad homs at me like this.
And like because it's such a repeated pattern of you claiming I'm obviously terrible I can't even tell if the massive disconnect between you saying my being opposite of you on DV makes you feel better is a scum slip. It sure looks like one to me. If I was scum then it's not a matter of right or wrong it's me pushing an agenda.
Vote: DV
In DITF you to the death were defending Mindreaver. DITF you also continued to scum read my slot for no reason what so ever, and I'd say that you almost singled handily got that into the water supply so much so that I'd say that KJ lynched the slot over it causing a town loss.
In PS it was a lot more than Kpacam it was also Rodemy and IDK the rest of my reads. Once again, I don't really care if I was wrong on a town read in that game. I had the other four scum nailed day one. My point as with the wordings I used, in situations such as this. IE me forcibly pursing scum reads, I'm more likely right than wrong when you disagree with me. My point, is that I don't care if you are town or scum, either way Shin is scum. Its why I'm pursing Shin.
I think you should be entirely discredited, your read on him amounts to random chance of claiming town which has a good probability of just guessing and getting it right. You are either A) Pushing an Agenda, or B) Really wrong as town. I don't care which, I'm lynching Shin today.
Also, you really think day one I waste my time as scum pushing Shinichi and yourself?
I want you both alive as long as possible if I'm scum. You're so in the weeds of trying to angle a scum read of me you've accused me of "Plotting with Rodemy" and now are accusing my Shinichi case of amounting to "I disagree with Grape" when there is so much more. Your entire read on Shinichi is "Trust me" even though you've basically been wrong with every trust me I've ever seen.
Nah I'm accusing you of treating me as town while pushing me as scum. If you believe I'm scum you wouldn't have the line of thought to think that "Grape being opposite of me makes me feel more strongly about this read." It's obvious you don't believe that as a result. I'm well aware you were pushing Shin before I got involved but if you were town and believed I was scum that thought should never pop into your head.
Anyway maybe you're such an arrogant tosser that you did ignore what you think I am in my zeal to discredit and abuse me. But I don't believe you'd that this game.
Oh no, I am doing exactly that. I'm not doing it to abuse you, but I am doing it to discredit you. Its like you didn't read 1186.
There is definitely some of the I'm not sure you are scum, you are definitely one of the scumiest players in this game. I basically wanted to call you scum all of DITF and I mentioned to Shadow multiple times that I thought KJ might be scum, or have really made a bad fake claim as town and that you were scum.
IDK maybe your play is so reminiscent of DITF you are town. God I want you to be scum this game though.
There's like a disconnect with this push by Grape. I can't tell if its scummy or not, but its whiny as all hell. Grapes like "You can't possibly be doing this" and my response is "Yes that's exactly what I'm doing."
So in that world, scumDV just... has some reads that he's pushing but then he's making a new read knowing grapes town forgetting he's scumreading him in order to "do the dv thing" and make a condescending read
But
If hes town he (in theory) either only makes that connection if hes already townreading grape OR seeing that parallel at least makes him question that scumread a little
I see in the posts DV thinks disproves this theory he said he doesn't care about grapes alignment one way or another but I don't think its making the point he thinks it is...
Grapes play feels about as useful as it was in DITF, where he was town and I kept wanting to scum read him despite the peek. So, there's my hesitation.
So he feels like a game where he was town
And like some other games where he was also town
So it makes you think...
?
Yeah I see where you are going, but hear me out.
Your scum game is largely so effective because of how ineffective some of your town games are. Apply the same process here. Just because Grape is playing the same here doesn't make him town to me. There is a reason I haven't been pushing Grape for a while, and its because of this.
Just look at what Grapes done today, he's sat on LNGR for the better part of the first half of the day, defended Shinichi, and voted me. Its just so scummy.
As to why this is making me read Shinichi more as likely scum. There is clearly some conformation reasons with Meta. But also its the way grape has defended Shinichi.
Grape said "I've been able to 'townclear' Shinichi" how many games he has done so I don't know because he never stated that. However, as I pointed out town clearing someone in two games is akin to random chance. Grapes not really pointed to anything in Shinichi's behavior that makes him town. I have pointed at least to something that makes me think that Shinichi's behavior is scum.
Grape hasn't engaged me on this at all. He's just stubbornly sat on it. As I've said I've been correct with almost all of these arguments with him. I messed up with Rhand, and that's partially due to me purposefully trying not to clear Rhand based off role PM formatting information. He might also say I defended GJ, but that isn't what I'm talking about. I'm saying when I say someone is scum, and he doggedly defends that person I've been right, other than Rhand and that's in three games. So, if he's town I feel great about Shinichi. Grapes totally ignored the BS "Rod is scum" claim by Shinichi which I've proven has no bearing and has never once had any statement showing why Shinichi feels that way(And yes I expect even Shinichi to at least write something, it might not make sense in any normal world, but hell I expect something).
I also just find the way Grape is defending Shinichi to be scummy. Its the vague "Trust" me, but not in a way that feels meaningful. Meanwhile, he doesn't really seem to be hunting. Its like Grape isn't hunting at all. The first bit of true hunting I've seen him do is this "catch" of his, but he's also ignoring where I say he's entirely right on me doing both. Its like he just wants to force the scum read on me. Same, with his "DV and Rod" planned it out thing. It just felt like a smear. It felt like he was trying to imply something scummy.
So, once again I don't know if he's scum. And that's the problem. I can't tell if he's tunneled beyond belief or just trying to defend a scum buddy. Either way, I feel pretty decent about the Shinichi lynch because of this.
I just don't know how Grape gets at a list like
grape
Vaimes
Rhand/Rod/Shin/RE/HR
1053/Tom/Chris
Cantrip/GJ/Hunger/Tubba
KA
LnG
KJ
DV/LW
Since my list is almost inverted my town list is literally,
Vaimes / LW / LNG and KA
How someone has RHAND as their second highest town read is just baffling to me. Rhand has posted almost zero content this game so far. Rod too. Its like he picked the two lowest content posters in the game and said lets make the weakest clears possible.
Was also thinking about 1053 earlier.
I saw a post that i thought illustrated some disparate experience levels. Specifically he made a post where he was, like, reading someone on tone and it specifically sounded like a fairly experienced player just falling back on gut amd i just cant decide if that makes sense for a recent transplant
Was also thinking about 1053 earlier.
I saw a post that i thought illustrated some disparate experience levels. Specifically he made a post where he was, like, reading someone on tone and it specifically sounded like a fairly experienced player just falling back on gut amd i just cant decide if that makes sense for a recent transplant
...from video/irl mafia since I feel like tone is largely replaced by mannerisms/expressions/etc in those games.
Idk just a thing that i didnt know what to make of I still think his entrance really felt like noob town but later posting not filling me with the warm fuzzies
@DV I get that you're trying not to flame and I appreciate it. But it's hard not to feel flamed when you keep making the point about how bad I am in other games. And I'm not sure what your point is beyond saying that because you think I've been awful it somehow makes the fact that I'm town reading Shin here a red flag but also gives you confidence? This line for example just says you're pushing shin because you scum read Shin: "My point as with the wordings I used, in situations such as this. IE me forcibly pursing scum reads, I'm more likely right than wrong when you disagree with me. My point, is that I don't care if you are town or scum, either way Shin is scum. Its why I'm pursing Shin." Fine. That last part makes sense. But it connects in no reasonable way to the first. Look at 981 again. That isn't a statement that makes sense if you think I'm scum. There's no acknowledgement of an agenda. It's you bragging about how you're better than me. And that doesn't make sense if you think I'm scum. Nothing in 1186 proves to me that 981 was making any point beyond "Grape is wrong a lot and that's a tiny point against Shin."
I've read the two posts you spoilered. I've replied to parts of both before now and I'm replying to them again. I am pretty sure I'm reading your posts roughly as close as you're reading mine because we've both missed things (you that I've been in 8ish games with Shin and had the bead on his town game after the second and me missing that you'd retracted your day ability) in each others posts. If you want to push Shin on nothing except his Rod read then be my guest. I think I've sufficiently proven why that's a silly idea (it wasn't justifying a Rod read it was explaining his Wisp read) and given other reasons to suggest he's town. I know Chris read that and disagreed on the substance (he was of the opinion that Shin doesn't read as relaxed) but I don't recall you commenting on it beyond the Rod stuff. You saying that my read is just a "trust me" read is a joke. I mean I am saying trust me, because I'm reasonably confident I'm right but I also attempted to explain it and give examples. If you disagree on the merits that's fine but shading me and claiming my town read is a black box reek of you continuing to try to smear me and my play.
Quote from DV »
So, once again I don't know if he's scum. And that's the problem. I can't tell if he's tunneled beyond belief or just trying to defend a scum buddy. Either way, I feel pretty decent about the Shinichi lynch because of this.
This just isn't the same thing you said in 981. Maybe you were sloppy and meant to say this the first time. But you didn't and this looks like the damage control version. It also doesn't make sense. If you remember anything about scumming with me you'd know that defending a buddy this hard is anathema to me. Despite the fact that I wouldn't get any credit for doing it (I was a janitor preventing flips) I kept trying to bus you in Pirates. In Tokens Wuffles had to urge me to not bus him. If Riku hadn't set me up to make it less needed to bus him I probably would have. In Banned mafia I sunk my entire team because I tried to bus as I had highroller biting at my heels like a rottweiler. Going this hard to save Shin is the last thing I'd ever do as scum. Which I know is self meta and worthless but it's also the truth. I am an awful powerwolfer.
Anyway I find it rather humorous that you take the time to bash me for having Rod as a town lean while also having talked himself about how the Daykill being relatively verified makes Rod reasonably likely town. As for Rhand I've explained that as much as I'm willing to for now. You can read my replies to KA for reasons vague as they are there.
As for your most pertinent question what makes KJ different to DitF is the fact that he's playing a completely different game. They aren't remotely similar despite KJ still being KJ. And I'd be curious to see what you felt the similarities between the two were.
Like I dunno what you expect me to say here. You said to tom that your thing about me being wrong is a minor deal to you. I would say the evidence says otherwise. It feels like a big deal to me and I'm really not particullary interested in your justifications for it anymore. I've heard them. I don't find them convincing. I'd like to see other people's thoughts because I might be in a tunnel because I was angry you have repeatedly gone out of your way to say how bad I am. But so far and now reasonably removed from the initial frustration I still feel the same way about 981 that I did in the time.
@LW for someone who was complaining about how stagnate the game was turning around and saying "well nothing we can do, has to be one of these two" is quite the change of tone. Why do you feel that way?
Are we all going to do that thing where we wait until a day before, someone claims, and then we run around trying to vote up the 2 or 3 people in hopes of finding an acceptable vanilla? Because that would suck and we shouldn't do that.
Grapes posting has been a bit better lately. I don't know what scum!Shin looks like, but town!Shin kinda goes off on weird tangents I can't follow and that's somewhat his game here. HR feels scummy to me but he always does.
Would anyone care to just be really scummy in the next 2 days or so to make this easier? kthxbai
@everyone that seems to misunderstand what I am saying: that post of HR is what made me pull his ISO and his ISO is what made me vote him.
But I need time to dig into it more because I only read him in isolation and have to research the context of his votes to be sure.
@whoever asked me to give opinions on everyone: I can't. I am not in the possibility of catching up. I do what I can to keep up with current events and try to pull an ISO here and there (so far Grape and HR), and that's all I can do for now.
. You said to tom that your thing about me being wrong is a minor deal to you. I would say the evidence says otherwise. It feels like a big deal to me and I'm really not particullary interested in your justifications for it anymore.
Quote from 981 »
Honestly Grape telling me I'm wrong on Shinichi with little to no evidence reinforces that I'm right because the majority of the disagreements where I scum read someone and he defends them I'm right.
Grape refers to 981 but apparently can't read 981.
forgot I was getting my wisdom teeth out tomorrow I am the worst.
Anyway I have a busy day today before being drugged af this weekend so any questions let me know and I will try to clarify. Dont agree with grape votes scum are rarely so bold as to attack me directly like he did.
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Anyway I find it rather humorous that you take the time to bash me for having Rod as a town lean while also having talked himself about how the Daykill being relatively verified makes Rod reasonably likely town. As for Rhand I've explained that as much as I'm willing to for now. You can read my replies to KA for reasons vague as they are there.
Its not that you can't have them as town reads, its that you have them as number two and three. Your list is so terrible and your reads are so weak that you have two non content posters as number two and three after 1300 posts. What the hell are you doing if you are town?
This list feels hamfisted.
1053 is in your list because of other people saying it and you're just trying to sheep those reads, but I'd argue that Hunger's pop ins have been more towny than 1053.
That's like the thing you can't accept. I keep hedging on you, because I want to scum read you. Tom's right I should be town reading you, and I know it. And I don't want to.
Things like this.
As for your most pertinent question what makes KJ different to DitF is the fact that he's playing a completely different game. They aren't remotely similar despite KJ still being KJ. And I'd be curious to see what you felt the similarities between the two were.
Is what makes me think you are scum. KJ is near identical to his play in DitF. He hasn't placed a vote(Just like DitF. He's been ineffective(Just like DitF). His posts have little relevance on the game. And if you do what I just did which was to take his ISO from both games and look at them side by side, they look near identical. You literally town read him, because of the peek that game and then danced into the forest with him.
Here is the thing. In DitF you and I disagreed on basically everything still, however I understood at least why you thought that way. Here it feels like I don't understand like you are just taking positions to take them, and then saying "Its this way, because I say so". Just like this KJ thing, there is nothing backing up that statement from you at all. Just like you claiming you've responded to my other posts, because yeah, you typed words on that appeared on the screen, but they basically amounted to "LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU".
Cause what was your response to me. "No you wouldn't be doing that THIS game." And I'm like well I am so tough.
forgot I was getting my wisdom teeth out tomorrow I am the worst.
Anyway I have a busy day today before being drugged af this weekend so any questions let me know and I will try to clarify. Dont agree with grape votes scum are rarely so bold as to attack me directly like he did.
@everyone that seems to misunderstand what I am saying: that post of HR is what made me pull his ISO and his ISO is what made me vote him.
But I need time to dig into it more because I only read him in isolation and have to research the context of his votes to be sure.
... Well, first of all, yeah, you might want to actually take into context someone's votes before accusing them of bandwagoning, seeing as how bandwagoning is entirely a contextual thing. Especially since I had just moved by vote from the leading wagon to a different wagon.
But you're not addressing the main issue with your post:
But last and grape both look like they know shin is gonna flip town and if one of them is scum i would take that as stronger evidence than anything about shins posting
I'm reading something with regards to LastWhisper. He's absolutely playing some kind of a game. The question is whether it's hedging on Shinichi being town and saying, "SEE?! I TOLD YOU SO!" or if it's him trying to defend a fellow mafia.
Either way, I'm going to go ahead with Unvote, Vote LastWhisper.
Mechanically I'm on my own, flavorwise you are all in my faction.
Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and FOS that. What possible faction could contain everyone?
It’s mainly this post that pinged me.
He votes LW and FOSes Grape, while Grape has an actual wagon.
Like, you're saying that this post pinged you, which made you look at my ISO, which made you conclude I was being bandwagony.
Except, in this very post, the post that pinged you, you're saying I'm suspicious because I am voting LastWhisper and NOT Grape, even though Grape was the one with the bandwagon.
To reiterate, you're saying this post is strange because I'm NOT bandwagoning.
And then you're saying I'm mafia because I'm bandwagoning.
forgot I was getting my wisdom teeth out tomorrow I am the worst.
Anyway I have a busy day today before being drugged af this weekend so any questions let me know and I will try to clarify. Dont agree with grape votes scum are rarely so bold as to attack me directly like he did.
grape attacked you?
He flat out called my shin attacks stupid and bad.
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Several things. Really hoping I'll be more free by tomorrow. (Then I've got a portfolio to finish by next Wednesday.) So nothing too in-depth.
Rhand's infrequent responses are very likely NAI, but it's difficult to assess him when he can't defend himself. Highroller's defense is a bit aggressive, but there's validity in the second part of #1344. While Rhand's take on HR feels kind of pure to me, it is still pretty vague. I'd hate to keep waiting for further elaboration, but I think I'd rather hear Rhand out than lynch him straight away.
I think no matter D_V's alignment, Grape picking up on the mindset dissonance makes him town.
Last is still ridiculously scummy. At this point though, I'd just feel bad voting him after that AtE. It's more of a courtesy that I'm not voting him now.
I'm getting weird vibes from tom. I don't really buy what he's saying. His "Grape pushing RE while staying out of the conflict around Shinichi and Wisp is what I'd expect from him if he was scum with one of them" post keeps coming back to me. He's someone I'd keep an eye on.
@D_V
Why do you have an issue with Grape's take on Rhand, but not Wisp's? Wisp has Kami and Rhand pretty high for what they've posted, imo.
If you trusted Wisp's read of Shinichi in the team mafia game, why are you not trusting him now?
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When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
I'm working myself through Shin's ISO. I have a presentation coming up and tomorrow a very full day, so it might take me a while.
@HR: I said the votes FEEL bandwagony, not that they are. I said in that same post that I had to look at context, which I will do when I find time.
Why are you so defensive? It's one vote. It's not like you're about to be lynched.
About the Grape / LW vote choice: that has nothing to do with me thinking your other votes feel bandwagony. The reason that that pinged me and made me look at your iso is that we are nearing EOD and you choose the shorter wagon of your two suspects to place your vote.
Not that strong reads on any of you really
I'd obviously prefer to catch up the rest of the way, but I really want Rhand to get back here so I can figure out if I want to kill him or not.
Grape seems scummy but he always does to me so I'm not sure if I want him dead for being scum or being Grape.
Shin I need to look at again. Save for re.
Shinichi (4): Sir Chris, D_V, Rodemy, KamikazeArchon
Grapefruit21 (4): LnGrrrR, Vaimes, 1053nm, tomsloger
Lastwhisper (1): Highroller
Hunger (1): Lastwhisper
D_V (1): Grapefruit21
Highroller (1): Rhand
Not Voting (7): Shinichi, Tubba Fett, Gentleman Johnny, Cantripmancer, Killjoy, RE1031, Hunger
V/LA
Sir Chris through May 9th
Killjoy through the week
Lastwhisper through the week (semi V/LA)
Shinichi from May 9th-10th
Rodemy through May 12th
With 19 alive it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is May 14th at 1700 MST.
A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
@DV: What's your current Chris read, and why?
I agree with his pushes and when he is here he seems town, however, its a light town read. If someone made a scum case I'd listen to them at the very least. Its one of those things where I think he's town, but part of me is going mmmm. I'm not very interested in pushing him day one to figure it out since I feel that with the way he posts(IE the sheer weight behind its posts) it will eventually become more clear to me of what I think his alignment is.
Still thinking on Grape right now.
Sorry I had finals to worry about
Is it even common to hit a threshold this big? I normally don't see majority get reached early on when they're pretty big.
I'll take a look at the post if I can find it.
Day Ones do not need to be 1k+ posts.
Don't really know what to make of complete lack of wagon movement. Probably because widespread inactivity + people have an aversion to voting.
Been really procrastinating on my own work
I was asking if I was being biased in seeing it. And looking at my ISO I haven't made the case coherently so I'll do it this way. In 1149 DV talks about my Shin read as if he believes I'm town (as in I'm usually wrong when we butt heads). He does all this while having a vote on me. Which means he'd think I'm scum in which case I'm not wrong I'm just pushing an agenda. He only gives two justifications for voting me. This this 700 posts earlier:
and a passing mention accusing me of neutral hunting.
He clearly doesn't believe that read or he wouldn't be making a point out of how wrong I always am as town.
It's like an internal disconnect I guess, where he's supposed to think youre scum and is making associations to past games where you were town?
Actually lololol this is a relevant thought to have in the same breath you call me mafia.
Like I'm pretty sure I'm not being blinded by my own bias and this is just a mindset slip.
I see what you're getting at now. I will look into it more when my attention isn't divided.
Grape: I made a new read on DV because my old one was based off beginning of the game DV, and he's done a lot since then. MY read was stale so I decided the best way to answer your question was to ISO him and make that post.
That's fair, I just was expecting some remnant of that read. But that really isn't enough to base a read off regardless.
There's Death in the Family, Phantom Tollbooth, Team Mafia Game 3, Rogue One, Arkham Horror, and Silence of the Lambs.
Offsite, the most recent games I have are these two:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1773265
https://animebase.me/threads/fin-round-10-the-meg-game-thread.768332/
Agreement. I really hate these 30 page day ones.
Grape is literally ignoring these two posts.
There's like a disconnect with this push by Grape. I can't tell if its scummy or not, but its whiny as all hell. Grapes like "You can't possibly be doing this" and my response is "Yes that's exactly what I'm doing."
its w/e at this point
But
If hes town he (in theory) either only makes that connection if hes already townreading grape OR seeing that parallel at least makes him question that scumread a little
I see in the posts DV thinks disproves this theory he said he doesn't care about grapes alignment one way or another but I don't think its making the point he thinks it is...
Hmm
Might vote him later gonna think on it.
Grapes play feels about as useful as it was in DITF, where he was town and I kept wanting to scum read him despite the peek. So, there's my hesitation.
And like some other games where he was also town
So it makes you think...
?
Yeah I see where you are going, but hear me out.
Your scum game is largely so effective because of how ineffective some of your town games are. Apply the same process here. Just because Grape is playing the same here doesn't make him town to me. There is a reason I haven't been pushing Grape for a while, and its because of this.
Just look at what Grapes done today, he's sat on LNGR for the better part of the first half of the day, defended Shinichi, and voted me. Its just so scummy.
As to why this is making me read Shinichi more as likely scum. There is clearly some conformation reasons with Meta. But also its the way grape has defended Shinichi.
Grape said "I've been able to 'townclear' Shinichi" how many games he has done so I don't know because he never stated that. However, as I pointed out town clearing someone in two games is akin to random chance. Grapes not really pointed to anything in Shinichi's behavior that makes him town. I have pointed at least to something that makes me think that Shinichi's behavior is scum.
Grape hasn't engaged me on this at all. He's just stubbornly sat on it. As I've said I've been correct with almost all of these arguments with him. I messed up with Rhand, and that's partially due to me purposefully trying not to clear Rhand based off role PM formatting information. He might also say I defended GJ, but that isn't what I'm talking about. I'm saying when I say someone is scum, and he doggedly defends that person I've been right, other than Rhand and that's in three games. So, if he's town I feel great about Shinichi. Grapes totally ignored the BS "Rod is scum" claim by Shinichi which I've proven has no bearing and has never once had any statement showing why Shinichi feels that way(And yes I expect even Shinichi to at least write something, it might not make sense in any normal world, but hell I expect something).
I also just find the way Grape is defending Shinichi to be scummy. Its the vague "Trust" me, but not in a way that feels meaningful. Meanwhile, he doesn't really seem to be hunting. Its like Grape isn't hunting at all. The first bit of true hunting I've seen him do is this "catch" of his, but he's also ignoring where I say he's entirely right on me doing both. Its like he just wants to force the scum read on me. Same, with his "DV and Rod" planned it out thing. It just felt like a smear. It felt like he was trying to imply something scummy.
So, once again I don't know if he's scum. And that's the problem. I can't tell if he's tunneled beyond belief or just trying to defend a scum buddy. Either way, I feel pretty decent about the Shinichi lynch because of this.
I just don't know how Grape gets at a list like
Vaimes
Rhand/Rod/Shin/RE/HR
1053/Tom/Chris
Cantrip/GJ/Hunger/Tubba
KA
LnG
KJ
DV/LW
Vaimes / LW / LNG and KA
How someone has RHAND as their second highest town read is just baffling to me. Rhand has posted almost zero content this game so far. Rod too. Its like he picked the two lowest content posters in the game and said lets make the weakest clears possible.
This is really a minor point to me at the end of the day.
Grape what about KJ's behavior is ANY different that DITF where you literally ran around holding his hand all game?
Was also thinking about 1053 earlier.
I saw a post that i thought illustrated some disparate experience levels. Specifically he made a post where he was, like, reading someone on tone and it specifically sounded like a fairly experienced player just falling back on gut amd i just cant decide if that makes sense for a recent transplant
...from video/irl mafia since I feel like tone is largely replaced by mannerisms/expressions/etc in those games.
Idk just a thing that i didnt know what to make of I still think his entrance really felt like noob town but later posting not filling me with the warm fuzzies
I've read the two posts you spoilered. I've replied to parts of both before now and I'm replying to them again. I am pretty sure I'm reading your posts roughly as close as you're reading mine because we've both missed things (you that I've been in 8ish games with Shin and had the bead on his town game after the second and me missing that you'd retracted your day ability) in each others posts. If you want to push Shin on nothing except his Rod read then be my guest. I think I've sufficiently proven why that's a silly idea (it wasn't justifying a Rod read it was explaining his Wisp read) and given other reasons to suggest he's town. I know Chris read that and disagreed on the substance (he was of the opinion that Shin doesn't read as relaxed) but I don't recall you commenting on it beyond the Rod stuff. You saying that my read is just a "trust me" read is a joke. I mean I am saying trust me, because I'm reasonably confident I'm right but I also attempted to explain it and give examples. If you disagree on the merits that's fine but shading me and claiming my town read is a black box reek of you continuing to try to smear me and my play.
This just isn't the same thing you said in 981. Maybe you were sloppy and meant to say this the first time. But you didn't and this looks like the damage control version. It also doesn't make sense. If you remember anything about scumming with me you'd know that defending a buddy this hard is anathema to me. Despite the fact that I wouldn't get any credit for doing it (I was a janitor preventing flips) I kept trying to bus you in Pirates. In Tokens Wuffles had to urge me to not bus him. If Riku hadn't set me up to make it less needed to bus him I probably would have. In Banned mafia I sunk my entire team because I tried to bus as I had highroller biting at my heels like a rottweiler. Going this hard to save Shin is the last thing I'd ever do as scum. Which I know is self meta and worthless but it's also the truth. I am an awful powerwolfer.
Anyway I find it rather humorous that you take the time to bash me for having Rod as a town lean while also having talked himself about how the Daykill being relatively verified makes Rod reasonably likely town. As for Rhand I've explained that as much as I'm willing to for now. You can read my replies to KA for reasons vague as they are there.
As for your most pertinent question what makes KJ different to DitF is the fact that he's playing a completely different game. They aren't remotely similar despite KJ still being KJ. And I'd be curious to see what you felt the similarities between the two were.
Like I dunno what you expect me to say here. You said to tom that your thing about me being wrong is a minor deal to you. I would say the evidence says otherwise. It feels like a big deal to me and I'm really not particullary interested in your justifications for it anymore. I've heard them. I don't find them convincing. I'd like to see other people's thoughts because I might be in a tunnel because I was angry you have repeatedly gone out of your way to say how bad I am. But so far and now reasonably removed from the initial frustration I still feel the same way about 981 that I did in the time.
@LW for someone who was complaining about how stagnate the game was turning around and saying "well nothing we can do, has to be one of these two" is quite the change of tone. Why do you feel that way?
Grapes posting has been a bit better lately. I don't know what scum!Shin looks like, but town!Shin kinda goes off on weird tangents I can't follow and that's somewhat his game here. HR feels scummy to me but he always does.
Would anyone care to just be really scummy in the next 2 days or so to make this easier? kthxbai
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
But I need time to dig into it more because I only read him in isolation and have to research the context of his votes to be sure.
@whoever asked me to give opinions on everyone: I can't. I am not in the possibility of catching up. I do what I can to keep up with current events and try to pull an ISO here and there (so far Grape and HR), and that's all I can do for now.
Grape refers to 981 but apparently can't read 981.
forgot I was getting my wisdom teeth out tomorrow I am the worst.
Anyway I have a busy day today before being drugged af this weekend so any questions let me know and I will try to clarify. Dont agree with grape votes scum are rarely so bold as to attack me directly like he did.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Its not that you can't have them as town reads, its that you have them as number two and three. Your list is so terrible and your reads are so weak that you have two non content posters as number two and three after 1300 posts. What the hell are you doing if you are town?
This list feels hamfisted.
1053 is in your list because of other people saying it and you're just trying to sheep those reads, but I'd argue that Hunger's pop ins have been more towny than 1053.
That's like the thing you can't accept. I keep hedging on you, because I want to scum read you. Tom's right I should be town reading you, and I know it. And I don't want to.
Things like this.
Is what makes me think you are scum. KJ is near identical to his play in DitF. He hasn't placed a vote(Just like DitF. He's been ineffective(Just like DitF). His posts have little relevance on the game. And if you do what I just did which was to take his ISO from both games and look at them side by side, they look near identical. You literally town read him, because of the peek that game and then danced into the forest with him.
Here is the thing. In DitF you and I disagreed on basically everything still, however I understood at least why you thought that way. Here it feels like I don't understand like you are just taking positions to take them, and then saying "Its this way, because I say so". Just like this KJ thing, there is nothing backing up that statement from you at all. Just like you claiming you've responded to my other posts, because yeah, you typed words on that appeared on the screen, but they basically amounted to "LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU".
Cause what was your response to me. "No you wouldn't be doing that THIS game." And I'm like well I am so tough.
But you're not addressing the main issue with your post:
Like, you're saying that this post pinged you, which made you look at my ISO, which made you conclude I was being bandwagony.
Except, in this very post, the post that pinged you, you're saying I'm suspicious because I am voting LastWhisper and NOT Grape, even though Grape was the one with the bandwagon.
To reiterate, you're saying this post is strange because I'm NOT bandwagoning.
And then you're saying I'm mafia because I'm bandwagoning.
That's a total contradiction in logic.
He flat out called my shin attacks stupid and bad.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Rhand's infrequent responses are very likely NAI, but it's difficult to assess him when he can't defend himself. Highroller's defense is a bit aggressive, but there's validity in the second part of #1344. While Rhand's take on HR feels kind of pure to me, it is still pretty vague. I'd hate to keep waiting for further elaboration, but I think I'd rather hear Rhand out than lynch him straight away.
I think no matter D_V's alignment, Grape picking up on the mindset dissonance makes him town.
Last is still ridiculously scummy. At this point though, I'd just feel bad voting him after that AtE. It's more of a courtesy that I'm not voting him now.
I'm getting weird vibes from tom. I don't really buy what he's saying. His "Grape pushing RE while staying out of the conflict around Shinichi and Wisp is what I'd expect from him if he was scum with one of them" post keeps coming back to me. He's someone I'd keep an eye on.
@D_V
Why do you have an issue with Grape's take on Rhand, but not Wisp's? Wisp has Kami and Rhand pretty high for what they've posted, imo.
If you trusted Wisp's read of Shinichi in the team mafia game, why are you not trusting him now?
@HR: I said the votes FEEL bandwagony, not that they are. I said in that same post that I had to look at context, which I will do when I find time.
Why are you so defensive? It's one vote. It's not like you're about to be lynched.
About the Grape / LW vote choice: that has nothing to do with me thinking your other votes feel bandwagony. The reason that that pinged me and made me look at your iso is that we are nearing EOD and you choose the shorter wagon of your two suspects to place your vote.
Shin on rod, dv on grape, rhand on highroller.
Prolly some minor ones too... last on shin, Kami on me, grape on RE?
There's some wolves mentioned in this post probably