KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
The status quo is decidedly not pro town, but I’m not seeing how it’s pro scum either. Is the play to just glorp along till deadline and rush a wagon through? Not even care about a lunch and just night action attrition? The irony of me bemoaning the lack of activity isn’t lost on me, but I’m not a game carrier.
You would think it'd normally be a slam dunk that the person with 450 posts on d1 was the nk, and person with 20 posts was the vig.
And yet..
Pretty sure the content in the posts is what matters and not the multitude of said posts. Heck if the night kill in everyg ame was based off post count then wisp would be shot every n1.
I've been kind of dancing around the fact, but I feel like there's certain kinds of scum teams that would sort of "mercy kill" Last based on gamethread health + his own mental state.
I don't think Sir Chris is ever part of a scum team that makes either of those kills on N1, as a name off top of head.
Ehh i guess I can kinda see it, but seems silly to kill based off of that.
Oh wait, you are in my faction. But, win con factgions I can't imagine being super impact to being a village. Mine is a little bit, but don't mind explaining it.
I still don't think alt win cons should be thrown around so easily because we have no idea how they could hurt the overrall towns win condition.
Sorry, still busy AF with work, but I see a light somewhere in the distance. Not going to hit on everything here, but hopefully get more in the game soon.
I feel like I'm having a tough time getting real reads in this game because every time a post comes off as agenda-y, I think, "yeah, it could be alt wincon agenda influencing that." Every time is probably a bit of hyperbole and I'm probably overthinking it, but it's definitely a different dynamic.
I get what Chris is saying re:Vaimes, but just not really sure I get the same conclusion. It's pretty meta and pretty one-sided based on a recent game I didn't experience. On the other hand a bunch of other people have super strong meta town reads on Vaimes and I have a leaning town read going as well just based on his seeming to want to progress the game and in a way that feels more...invested. On the flipside of this, Vaimes does make a good point on his brief wagon analysis in that Chris stalling out with himself and two other town reads is interesting. Still reading Chris as town though. I also feel like a bunch of people have said they don't really like KA and yet as Vaimes points out his wagon also hasn't moved. That's probably my best bet for scum and will probably end up with my vote there and look to push that.
I have really liked Winds so far and would put him in my town pool. In particular I want to sheep him on KA's post feeling pretty shallow/hallow as well as his point about the Rhand wagon stalling out vs Grape despite having the support of the Starks as an alt wincon lynch which would have been a free pass for any scum!stark if they exist. Also, the fact that he openly said he doesn't want to lynch Starks or Night's Watch due to his alt wincon just didn't feel like something scum would have done. Obviously scum can hide behind alt wincons, but like the timing and way it was presented and the attention it would draw just feels so detached from how I think a scum would approach it.
The second NK definitely lowers my opinion of the Rod slot. It already was somewhat in the air due to not seeing it actually succeed or knowing the conditions of how it would, but multiple extra kills definitely opens some possibilities. Until we know more I think Rodemy goes back to neutral-ish for me.
I'm not sure I would be so quick to say LW couldn't have been the scum NK. While he was a potential mislynch, he got run up to almost a mislynch and they couldn't get it to go through. Last is a bit polarizing and I feel like he also had a lot of strong supporters for his towniness that could have caused a problem. He was also unable to be protected due to his claim of ascetic so it was a kill that was likely to go through and not be watched/seen.
HR on the other hand was more town read overall, but definitely had a few strong detractors including Last. Towards the end of the Day Last and I discussed HR feeling off. Could also lend credence to the scum NK being last to make HR look worse.
I still need to look into shin more, but I feel like his posts just don't say anything and he isn't really trying to do anything other than multi-quote reply to stuff that most of the time has like no impact.
Tubba also feels like he is just floating by.
Also KJ.
Probably others too.
My hypocrisy knows no bounds.
Vote: KA
I don't know why peple care so much about the alt win cons, thats my biggest issue with them. Its hard to push forward a read when it seems like everyone has agendas towards their win cons be it bad or good ones.
My only experience with scum vaimes was when he tried to call me a dumb town read and then he ended up flipping scum. He hasn't actually been doing that this game so I don't know if that way his way of buying my iron throne vote or just some form of trying to get me to pocket him. Maybe he just doesn't even care about me. I still want to go back and look at the rhand wagon. I am pretty sure there is either scum on that train or that rhand himself is scum so I don't know how that got dropped for the GF mess.
I wanna know whats going on with rhands ability, if he has a Day kill was it 1 shot? If so it doenst make sense to have a 1 shot day kill that has a percent chance to hit or whateevr caused it to miss on me.
Overrall though I have toa gree with your read on wind, I would still be ok with a KA lynch but that not where i wanna go right now.
xequalsy, by page 13 I had made a total of 8 posts. I can see you liking several of those posts, but to give me a townlean as, what, your fourth alignment read of the game (first three being Tom/Chris/DV-ish) based on those 8 posts....rings insincere. Especially with the generic "probing and engaging" rationale. To be frank, it feels like the kind of thing I'd do as a scum replacement: come into the thread and town read a few low-posters so that I could point back at those reads when they died. But I realize the kind of thing I'd do is quite frequently NOT the kind of thing anyone else would do, so... I don't find you scummy for the bare bones town-lean, but it definitely made me raise an eyebrow.
Until now I had not really liked much of your posts, they felt scummy with some sort of agenda. This read on Xequalsy, however, is actually pretty good. I don't sense any agenda's or fakeness whatsoever. The last sentence is a little strange though, but i think i can let that slide.
Eh I guess? It’s fairly barebones but it was mostly about how you felt super on the periphery with your first couple posts, but then turned that vibe around and actually got stuck in and engaged with people without any real pressure on you.
Up to page 17 now - I like Chris’s catch on Shin, but to be honest the muddle of LW and Shin waffling on it makes me come out of it with more of a town read on DV (for being the one to actually push and prod and attempt to resolve it) and Chris over any actual read on Shin.
The actual thing I wanted to ask Shin though was his comment about Rod’s ability as being a “day-vig”. Why did you assume that someone you scum read (repeatedly said through questions by DV etc...) had a “day-vig”?
??
Vote:Shinichi
Not really feeling Tubba so far, but that might be because I skimmed over his later posts in D1 dunno.
Hmm? Not sure what agenda your trying to push, but you know ROD said he had a vig shot. Therefore when he used his ability during the day thats what i assumed it was. I could you know be wrong about my ROD read, thats clearly a possibility. However I would always assume its a day vig if they can shoot during the day, its possible for scum aligned players to have an extra shot during the day as a role ability.
Short of rhand and/or shinichi being scum, i dont think scum had much reason to care how d1 turned out. And neither of them ever seemed in real danger anyway
Short of rhand and/or shinichi being scum, i dont think scum had much reason to care how d1 turned out. And neither of them ever seemed in real danger anyway
@Tubba, you have 2 shots you have to use simultaneously. Who are you shooting and why?
This is a side of Lngrr I haven’t seen before. I’m intrigued.
I’m not at all caught up. Gonna do my best to get involved again, but I’m doing back-to-back cruises to replace a sick colleague, and that’s not as easy as I thought.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Talk to me specifically about tubba. I keep scumreading him and either being right and no one listens and I back off, or being wrong. What makes a scum tubba?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Theyre a little higher in postcount but rodslot or rhand are very appealing too
Pretty much where I'm at. I've liked Hunger's posts when he's made them, but I feel like it's more a case of liking the way Hunger makes posts than the actual content.
I think Rod is still probably town, just because faking the daykill (or being a wolf with the daykill) feels pretty low probability. But a wolf or two in [Tubba, Hunger, Rhand] seems super likely here.
I think KA is probably a wolf, and then 1-2 in the misclears/soft town reads.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
IMO, a daykill should be used early; this gives us time in the Day to process and react to a flip. We're about a week from deadline so I think it's roasty time.
@Tubba, you have 2 shots you have to use simultaneously. Who are you shooting and why?
Tom, he’s one of my big question marks right now. He’s hard for me to read anyways, but he seems like a low energy version of himself this game that I don’t know what to do with.
Cantripmancer, for a similar reason to Tom, with the extant circumstance that I feel like he’s purposefully on the fringe.
It’s probably not fair in the sense that I’m not a high poster to expect more from other players like this, but I feel like these two should be leaders in a game this listless.
Honorable mentions to Rhand and Shin on account of their dissolving wagons.
@Tubba, you have 2 shots you have to use simultaneously. Who are you shooting and why?
Tom, he’s one of my big question marks right now. He’s hard for me to read anyways, but he seems like a low energy version of himself this game that I don’t know what to do with.
Cantripmancer, for a similar reason to Tom, with the extant circumstance that I feel like he’s purposefully on the fringe.
It’s probably not fair in the sense that I’m not a high poster to expect more from other players like this, but I feel like these two should be leaders in a game this listless.
Honorable mentions to Rhand and Shin on account of their dissolving wagons.
Why would dissolving wagons give you a read? Wolves don't always try to pressure dissolving wagons on townies, and wolves dissolving can happen admittedly, but what makes you think this is the case here?
@Tubba, you have 2 shots you have to use simultaneously. Who are you shooting and why?
Tom, he’s one of my big question marks right now. He’s hard for me to read anyways, but he seems like a low energy version of himself this game that I don’t know what to do with.
Cantripmancer, for a similar reason to Tom, with the extant circumstance that I feel like he’s purposefully on the fringe.
It’s probably not fair in the sense that I’m not a high poster to expect more from other players like this, but I feel like these two should be leaders in a game this listless.
Honorable mentions to Rhand and Shin on account of their dissolving wagons.
Why would dissolving wagons give you a read? Wolves don't always try to pressure dissolving wagons on townies, and wolves dissolving can happen admittedly, but what makes you think this is the case here?
Rhand’s moreso than Shin because he was a lot closer to actually dying, but it pinged me. I feel like if Rhand was townie he should’ve been mislynched. Maybe letting the day drag on longer is a better strategy in that situation, but I’m not thinking that far out of the box.
@Tubba, the correct answer was to ask kindly for 7 more shots...
But honestly, surprised about Tom. Why not Sir Chris instead?
I am fine at this point plucking low hanging fruit, ie low posting players, off the vine. We need to get some traction dang it.
So everyone, let's pick one of the people up there who don't actually want to play the game and help them along.
I guess I will go with
Vote Gentleman Johnny since he has firmly allied himself to Sir Chris, who I am not very enamored with at the moment.
I considered Chris, but he has a plausible excuse for his lack of impact so far.
I’m more of a “hear everyone’s arguments and see what feels right to me”, two killing shots felt like too much power and responsibility. Vote Rhand
Rhand’s moreso than Shin because he was a lot closer to actually dying, but it pinged me. I feel like if Rhand was townie he should’ve been mislynched. Maybe letting the day drag on longer is a better strategy in that situation, but I’m not thinking that far out of the box.
Ill be honest. Day 1, I don't think I could in good faith lynch Rhand day 1, even if he is a wolf. I would feel too heartbroken if he flipped town, and was lynched day 1 two times in a row. Especially since he didn't deserve it in Family (reactions aside).
Also, why? If Rhand is town and there was already one wolf on it or more. Unless you think his wagon was pure, and then it fell apart?
Sorry for not posting yesterday - spent a lot of time travelling. Gonna be another busy day for me, but I’ll try and get some detailed rereading going even if I don’t get to post again.
Been kinda waffling on what to do with this, but let’s go with this.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
The fearsome dragon, XequalsY, took to the skies, searching for something to eat. What it found instead was a man who claimed fire as an ally. Without even landing, the dragon decided to test that alliance; he unleashed a torrent of flame upon 1053nm, engulfing him in fire. Perhaps he’d be the sacrifice that R’hllor wanted. Or perhaps instead he’d just be dead.
1053nm has died! He was:
Player: 1053nm
Character: Stannis Baratheon
Faction: Baratheon
Alignment: Town
Abilities: Chosen by the Light (Active) - While you control the Iron Throne, you will learn and have this ability.
Passive: You may support your own claim to the throne.
[Chosen by the Light unlocked: Target up to two players, any abilities they use tonight (other than killing abilities) will be redirected to you.]
Factional Win Conditions: Brother's United - [redacted until end of game]
-or- Ours is the Fury - [redacted until end of game]
Your brother, the king died unexpectedly. You didn’t love him, and he didn’t love you. Yet you respected his station. So when you received the raven from Ned Stark, revealing the truth of Robert’s children, you felt the call of duty. By right, you are king.
And you met a Red Priestess from across the narrow sea, she speaks in your ear, truths she shouldn’t possibly know, the Lord of Light favors you, you are the Prince who was Promised. With her by your side, and the Lord of Light behind you, nothing will stand in the way of you taking your rightful place in the Red Keep, and destroying the false kings and pretenders!
I just. Don't get it. We've had a dead, stagnant day, and that offers the potential to get a meaningful flip to spend the rest of the day on. KA. Rhand maybe. Even Shinichi, despite my preference to keep Starks alive. Anything that provides insight on d1/today, which is like. Almost anyone but the person that hasn't been here and is clearly new.
Whatever what's done is done.
I think x=y is probbbbbably town? If it was just a loud reporter or something I could have seen it being a wolf role, but actual public KP being on wolf team seems unlikely.
Uugh. I would have much preferred another attempt at Shin.
The flip's details have some minor interesting properties. Nothing that's relevant to the current gamestate, but remind me to post a hypothesis Day 3 if I make it that far. No real associatives from this flip either.
@LnGrr: That's weird timing for a vote on GJ, considering he's now being active - actually more active than Chris.
Like. What is more useful, the flip of someone who has has no pressure and minimal interactions, or the flip of someone who was a main wagon on d1 or d2? You always try to shed clarity on gamestate
Notes tell me it's due to a Cantrip claim. That sounds familiar. Probably is fine then, don't think Cantrip hard ties himself to partner d1. And Cantrip seems competent enough to trust that mechanically. RE probably just town
I hate x=y's shot choice and iso
Went to find progression for that shot and it doesnt exist, and the iso has far too many probablys
Not gonna do anything about it without a potential night vig claiming, which i still dont want. But "public day vig" is the only thing keeping me off the slot rn, and only barely
RE is almost certainly town as per previous post logic. Wouldn't hate further clarification from Cantrip at some point down the road, because if this is just a read that could be wrong that's useful info, especially given RE's drop off.
Vaimes is my king, and very confident he's town here.
Likewise am pretty sure Sir Chris is town here - just wrong.
18. D_V Thousand_Winds
14. RE1031
2. Vaimes
3. Sir Chris
Don't think Rodemy/x=y is likely to be a wolf here. Confirmed daykilling KP that is public is almost always town.
LnGrrrR had the d1 thing with the factions that I struggle to see a wolf ever doing. Didn't feel calculated, no agenda, just information spilled out of nowhere really.
18. D_V Thousand_Winds
14. RE1031
2. Vaimes
3. Sir Chris
13. Rodemy XequalsY
10. LnGrrrR
Still planning on protecting the Starks and Night's Watch members for another day or two, though we really need to start hitting some red flips. I only know the name of one NW member, but there has to be multiple of them I think for role to make any sense, but not going to out that in case there's another faction that wants them dead somehow. Regardless, Tom, Shinichi, KJ has at most 1 wolf between them, and I will protect them. Pack survives, etc.
Feel like pretty high odds of 3 wolves in these 6 names. There probably is one wolf in my Stark/NW cluster too, but 3 in 6 or so is pretty good odds and sorting through this feels solid.
I think GJ and Cantrip are probably the most likey town here in that group. If I could unilaterally control the death order it'd be something like KA > Rhand > Tubba > Hunger > GJ > Cantrip, with obvious re-evaluation after each red flip to look at unalignments.
Well, I'm out for a couple days super busy with some work stuff. Hopefuly some of our inactive people (RE, Rhand, Chris, Cantrip, Hunger?) can find some time to properly catch up/play.
V/LA-ish 3-4 days. Sporadic.
Looks like our deadline is May 30 at 1700 MST. 8 to lynch. Doesn't need to happen immediately, but we should probably not leave it til the last hour either.
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This is probably correct.
Some of what you have opinions on can be summed up by DV existing. I'm sure you can extrapolate.
I'm continuing my reread tomorrow.
Somebody ask me something.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
This all still depends on Vaimes actually playing town the entire game.
Pretty sure the content in the posts is what matters and not the multitude of said posts. Heck if the night kill in everyg ame was based off post count then wisp would be shot every n1.
Ehh i guess I can kinda see it, but seems silly to kill based off of that.
I still don't think alt win cons should be thrown around so easily because we have no idea how they could hurt the overrall towns win condition.
I don't know why peple care so much about the alt win cons, thats my biggest issue with them. Its hard to push forward a read when it seems like everyone has agendas towards their win cons be it bad or good ones.
My only experience with scum vaimes was when he tried to call me a dumb town read and then he ended up flipping scum. He hasn't actually been doing that this game so I don't know if that way his way of buying my iron throne vote or just some form of trying to get me to pocket him. Maybe he just doesn't even care about me. I still want to go back and look at the rhand wagon. I am pretty sure there is either scum on that train or that rhand himself is scum so I don't know how that got dropped for the GF mess.
I wanna know whats going on with rhands ability, if he has a Day kill was it 1 shot? If so it doenst make sense to have a 1 shot day kill that has a percent chance to hit or whateevr caused it to miss on me.
Overrall though I have toa gree with your read on wind, I would still be ok with a KA lynch but that not where i wanna go right now.
Until now I had not really liked much of your posts, they felt scummy with some sort of agenda. This read on Xequalsy, however, is actually pretty good. I don't sense any agenda's or fakeness whatsoever. The last sentence is a little strange though, but i think i can let that slide.
Hmm? Not sure what agenda your trying to push, but you know ROD said he had a vig shot. Therefore when he used his ability during the day thats what i assumed it was. I could you know be wrong about my ROD read, thats clearly a possibility. However I would always assume its a day vig if they can shoot during the day, its possible for scum aligned players to have an extra shot during the day as a role ability.
Uhm? I was heavily voted at some point during D1
Iso him then get back to us on your vaimes read.
This is a side of Lngrr I haven’t seen before. I’m intrigued.
I’m not at all caught up. Gonna do my best to get involved again, but I’m doing back-to-back cruises to replace a sick colleague, and that’s not as easy as I thought.
Rhand-47
Tubba-34
Cobalt+Johnny-31
1053-27
Hunger-26
Cantrip-19
Over/under 2.5 scum in lowposters
Theyre a little higher in postcount but rodslot or rhand are very appealing too
Pretty much where I'm at. I've liked Hunger's posts when he's made them, but I feel like it's more a case of liking the way Hunger makes posts than the actual content.
I think Rod is still probably town, just because faking the daykill (or being a wolf with the daykill) feels pretty low probability. But a wolf or two in [Tubba, Hunger, Rhand] seems super likely here.
I think KA is probably a wolf, and then 1-2 in the misclears/soft town reads.
WiFOM mostly. Decent odds of a wolf in there, but not something I'd bet the game on.
IMO, a daykill should be used early; this gives us time in the Day to process and react to a flip. We're about a week from deadline so I think it's roasty time.
Tom, he’s one of my big question marks right now. He’s hard for me to read anyways, but he seems like a low energy version of himself this game that I don’t know what to do with.
Cantripmancer, for a similar reason to Tom, with the extant circumstance that I feel like he’s purposefully on the fringe.
It’s probably not fair in the sense that I’m not a high poster to expect more from other players like this, but I feel like these two should be leaders in a game this listless.
Honorable mentions to Rhand and Shin on account of their dissolving wagons.
You aren't going to be voting anyone then. Things happen.
Speaking of, I am going to Michigan, so I will be low impact.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Why would dissolving wagons give you a read? Wolves don't always try to pressure dissolving wagons on townies, and wolves dissolving can happen admittedly, but what makes you think this is the case here?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Yikes at anyone with less posts than me.
tom, I do agree with one thing. Why do you feel low energy this game?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
But honestly, surprised about Tom. Why not Sir Chris instead?
I am fine at this point plucking low hanging fruit, ie low posting players, off the vine. We need to get some traction dang it.
So everyone, let's pick one of the people up there who don't actually want to play the game and help them along.
I guess I will go with
Vote Gentleman Johnny since he has firmly allied himself to Sir Chris, who I am not very enamored with at the moment.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Rhand’s moreso than Shin because he was a lot closer to actually dying, but it pinged me. I feel like if Rhand was townie he should’ve been mislynched. Maybe letting the day drag on longer is a better strategy in that situation, but I’m not thinking that far out of the box.
I considered Chris, but he has a plausible excuse for his lack of impact so far.
I’m more of a “hear everyone’s arguments and see what feels right to me”, two killing shots felt like too much power and responsibility.
Vote Rhand
Ill be honest. Day 1, I don't think I could in good faith lynch Rhand day 1, even if he is a wolf. I would feel too heartbroken if he flipped town, and was lynched day 1 two times in a row. Especially since he didn't deserve it in Family (reactions aside).
Also, why? If Rhand is town and there was already one wolf on it or more. Unless you think his wagon was pure, and then it fell apart?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Been kinda waffling on what to do with this, but let’s go with this.
Dracaris:1053nm
Or at least give someone the chance to claim.
1053nm has died! He was:
Character: Stannis Baratheon
Faction: Baratheon
Alignment: Town
Abilities: Chosen by the Light (Active) - While you control the Iron Throne, you will learn and have this ability.
Passive: You may support your own claim to the throne.
[Chosen by the Light unlocked: Target up to two players, any abilities they use tonight (other than killing abilities) will be redirected to you.]
Factional Win Conditions:
Brother's United - [redacted until end of game]
-or-
Ours is the Fury - [redacted until end of game]
Your brother, the king died unexpectedly. You didn’t love him, and he didn’t love you. Yet you respected his station. So when you received the raven from Ned Stark, revealing the truth of Robert’s children, you felt the call of duty. By right, you are king.
And you met a Red Priestess from across the narrow sea, she speaks in your ear, truths she shouldn’t possibly know, the Lord of Light favors you, you are the Prince who was Promised. With her by your side, and the Lord of Light behind you, nothing will stand in the way of you taking your rightful place in the Red Keep, and destroying the false kings and pretenders!
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch!
I just. Don't get it. We've had a dead, stagnant day, and that offers the potential to get a meaningful flip to spend the rest of the day on. KA. Rhand maybe. Even Shinichi, despite my preference to keep Starks alive. Anything that provides insight on d1/today, which is like. Almost anyone but the person that hasn't been here and is clearly new.
Whatever what's done is done.
I think x=y is probbbbbably town? If it was just a loud reporter or something I could have seen it being a wolf role, but actual public KP being on wolf team seems unlikely.
The flip's details have some minor interesting properties. Nothing that's relevant to the current gamestate, but remind me to post a hypothesis Day 3 if I make it that far. No real associatives from this flip either.
@LnGrr: That's weird timing for a vote on GJ, considering he's now being active - actually more active than Chris.
@Tubba: When was Rhand closer to dying than Shin?
Gonna be honest. 50% faction guessing, 50% lurking scum read.
Process vs results. Was a bad shot even if he was scum,
Went to find progression for that shot and it doesnt exist, and the iso has far too many probablys
Not gonna do anything about it without a potential night vig claiming, which i still dont want. But "public day vig" is the only thing keeping me off the slot rn, and only barely
12. Highroller, Renly Baratheon: Town, killed night 1.
16. Lastwhisper, Arya Stark: Town, killed night 1.
15. 1053nm, Stannis Baratheon: Town, killed day 2.
1. KamikazeArchon
2. Vaimes
3. Sir Chris
4. Cantripmancer
5. Shinichi
6. Rhand
7. Hunger
9. Tubba Fett
10. LnGrrrR
11. Coballt Gentleman Johnny
13. Rodemy XequalsY
14. RE1031
17. Killjoy
18. D_V Thousand_Winds
19. tomsloger
I'm town.
RE is almost certainly town as per previous post logic. Wouldn't hate further clarification from Cantrip at some point down the road, because if this is just a read that could be wrong that's useful info, especially given RE's drop off.
Vaimes is my king, and very confident he's town here.
Likewise am pretty sure Sir Chris is town here - just wrong.
18. D_V Thousand_Winds
14. RE1031
2. Vaimes
3. Sir Chris
Don't think Rodemy/x=y is likely to be a wolf here. Confirmed daykilling KP that is public is almost always town.
LnGrrrR had the d1 thing with the factions that I struggle to see a wolf ever doing. Didn't feel calculated, no agenda, just information spilled out of nowhere really.
18. D_V Thousand_Winds
14. RE1031
2. Vaimes
3. Sir Chris
13. Rodemy XequalsY
10. LnGrrrR
Still planning on protecting the Starks and Night's Watch members for another day or two, though we really need to start hitting some red flips. I only know the name of one NW member, but there has to be multiple of them I think for role to make any sense, but not going to out that in case there's another faction that wants them dead somehow. Regardless, Tom, Shinichi, KJ has at most 1 wolf between them, and I will protect them. Pack survives, etc.
18. D_V Thousand_Winds
14. RE1031
2. Vaimes
3. Sir Chris
13. Rodemy XequalsY
10. LnGrrrR
17. Killjoy
19. tomsloger
5. Shinichi
This leaves:
1. KamikazeArchon
4. Cantripmancer
6. Rhand
7. Hunger
9. Tubba Fett
11. Coballt Gentleman Johnny
Feel like pretty high odds of 3 wolves in these 6 names. There probably is one wolf in my Stark/NW cluster too, but 3 in 6 or so is pretty good odds and sorting through this feels solid.
I think GJ and Cantrip are probably the most likey town here in that group. If I could unilaterally control the death order it'd be something like KA > Rhand > Tubba > Hunger > GJ > Cantrip, with obvious re-evaluation after each red flip to look at unalignments.
V/LA-ish 3-4 days. Sporadic.
Looks like our deadline is May 30 at 1700 MST. 8 to lynch. Doesn't need to happen immediately, but we should probably not leave it til the last hour either.