(Last/Rhand always contains >0 scum due to mission 2, all teams will include one of them)
(Rhand/Ruma contains <2 scum due to mission 4, so no teams will include both)
Rhand, Cantrip, KJ
2.1 would require winking and nodding, 3.1 is a bit cheeky, 3.2 could check out if Rhand was no voting on principle and KJ got gunshy about his proposal.
Rhand, Cantrip, Lng
Same as above, 3.2 voting is more believable from Lng instead of KJ
Rhand, Cantrip, Last
Rhand, Last, KJ
Rhand, Last, Lng
Too many reasons why Rhand/Last don’t make sense as partners from even a mechanical standpoint. I think if they did something that...outlandish...then they got it past me.
Rhand, Lng, KJ
This would have required a significant amount of winking and nodding to even be plausible.
Last, Cantrip, Ruma
1.2 would be all town, 3.2 being risky would explain why all the no votes (granted, Cantrip yes voted. Could be a bluff)
Last, Cantrip, KJ
Checks out with everything except 3.3, which would have required some communicating.
Last, Cantrip, Lng
1.1 is funny, otherwise same as above
Last, Lng, Ruma
3.3 would need communication, and 4.2 would have been pretty risky.
Last, Lng, KJ
Too much communication needed in basically every quest, not a thing.
Last, KJ, Ruma
2.1 and 3.3 would need communication, 3.2 would have had all 3 scum. Nope.World likelihood
Most likely:
Rhand Cantrip Lng
Last Cantrip KJ
Possible:
Rhand Cantrip KJ
Last Cantrip Lng
Unlikely but needs to be considered:
Last Cantrip Ruma
Last Lng RumaThis is all just mechanics at this point. I was gonna do this and then run them through behavioral analysis but this day was stupid busy. So I’m posting this and I’ll do more with it later.
Quick takeaway, I don’t see any feasible world where Cantrip is not scum except mayyyybe last Lng Ruma, but I’m wrapping this up kinda quickly so it’s possible I missed something (don’t think so though). But as it stands, I want him as on of the two not on the mission. I think this game comes down to rhand vs last. I’m very curious to see how people vote, and I sort of think we shouldn’t announce vote intention ahead of time? Gonna let that thought stew for a bit. Got to go.
Does a team consisting of Shadow, Rhand and Cantrip make sense to you? Look at the results through that lens.
Mission 1: Proposed by LnG. KJ, LnGrrrR, rhand. Rhand is only scum, but votes pass.
Mission 2: Propoaed by LW. KJ, LnG, Rhand and LW. Rhand is only scum, LW dummies Rhand and he tries to fail unsuccessfully.
Mission 3: Proposed by Shadow. KJ, Last, LnGrrrR and Rhand. Rhand would be only scum. Shadow claims he dummied Rhand who passed.
Mission 4: Proposed by Cantrip. Cantrip, Wisp, KJ, LnGrrrR, shadow. Shadow and Cantrip are the scum. Again, Cantrip claims to have dummied Shadow, who passed.
Is there any reason why this couldn't be the case?
Honestly... All the missions that Riku was on or the ones he choose, are so disproportionate to the rest of this missions... It makes analysis so much harder
@Grr
Talk to me about killjoy, what do you think of his posts since today started?
I think they suck, but he is probably just paranoid and spinning. Mechanically, a team with him doesn't make sense. Why approve mission 2 with Rhand on it also?
Shadow is probably right in his mechanical post. Right about what? Who knows.
Riku: I didn't trust you, so I voted it down.
Last: The idea is that you outing Rhand makes you X% likely to not be lying, with every mission with you on it that fails after that makes you more likely to be lying.
I'm tired and have been up since 5, so I'm gonna sleep on this.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Shadow is probably right in his mechanical post. Right about what? Who knows.
Riku: I didn't trust you, so I voted it down.
Last: The idea is that you outing Rhand makes you X% likely to not be lying, with every mission with you on it that fails after that makes you more likely to be lying.
I'm tired and have been up since 5, so I'm gonna sleep on this.
I outted because I had the information, there was no reason to withhold it. Also, that's still not how this works...
For me, No one really wants Shadow to go on missions. The only proposal containing him at all was 4.2. No one seems to care about him going on missions. The informants can't keep Shadow off missions forever if he's one of them.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
For me, No one really wants Shadow to go on missions. The only proposal containing him at all was 4.2. No one seems to care about him going on missions. The informants can't keep Shadow off missions forever if he's one of them.
But... they can? We know there are at least two informants on the last mission. Is anyone eager to introduce Shadow as an unknown?
Shadow is never a wolf w/o cantrip, and mission 3.2 makes that even more unlikely since Cantrip voted Yes to a mission where neither Rhand or Shadow were on.
Key points here:
1. When scum is leader, information doesn't need to be shared.
2. For some scum teams, information needs to be shared without suspicion.
3. In 1.2, Lngrr leader, Rhand scum. This is the only case that doesn't add up for Lnggrrr/Rhand/Cantrip. It could be a play, though
4. 2.1, Rhand says no to mission team. Rhand fails mission (allegedly).
5. In 3.3, Rhand votes yes to mission team, Lngrrr doesn't vote. Possibly he was meant to say 'no' here. Lngrr Fails mission.
6. In 4.2, Cantrip is leader. No information needs to be shared.
I put to the jury that Cantrip and Rhand are scum by association. Lngrrr works with this theory, but the Not Voting harms it.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
but if Killjoy refuses to get out of his tunnel, then I have no choice but assume he is scum
Something to note Last: This sounds like a threat and makes me specifically not want to beleive that we're on the same team.
Anywho. Things I know for sure.
Rhand and Wisp are almost never scum together. (2.1)
There is (likely only) one scum in Last, Lng (Or Shadow+Rhand scum) (3.3)
There are two scum in Cantrip, Wisp, Lng (OR Shadow+Cantrip scum) (4.2)
There is one scum tops between Rhand and Riku (4.2)
Lng+Rhand keep being proposed together. Both Lng and Rhand's proposals include both. Likely not scum together.
I tried to change things up with LngrrrR+Wisp+Riku(+me) and was met with a lot of resistance. Note: Cantrip+ Lng approved.
Last I specifically recall reacting in ferver that I'm scum because I didn't propose 2.1 again.
It eventually gets proposed in 3.3, and fails. Note: Cantrip rejected that one.Lng didn't vote.
I do not think that would have passed. I'm wondering if there's two scum in Lng+Wisp+Riku
THAT WOULD MEAN either Rhand+Lng+Riku OR Wisp+Lng/Wisp+Riku and not Rhand. Wisp+Riku more likely because Lng approved.Rhand+Riku is impossible.
Maybe this isn't the case, but would be interesting if it were.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
It eventually gets proposed in 3.3, and fails. Note: Cantrip rejected that one.Lng didn't vote.
doesnt matter, town were voting to pass that one
at the time I had a different idea of who the scum team was, that's why I wanted it proposed again, it was my own paranoia, and I was wrong. Being wrong isn't scummy
anyways, this game doesnt move forward till Cantrip proposes a team
It eventually gets proposed in 3.3, and fails. Note: Cantrip rejected that one.Lng didn't vote.
doesnt matter, town were voting to pass that one
at the time I had a different idea of who the scum team was, that's why I wanted it proposed again, it was my own paranoia, and I was wrong. Being wrong isn't scummy
anyways, this game doesnt move forward till Cantrip proposes a team
You also, #741. Thoughts.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
IDK what to think because 3.3 means that there's 1+ scum in LnGrrrR and Last but likely not both, but neither are likely scum with Rhand. So which is wrong?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
IDK what to think because 3.3 means that there's 1+ scum in LnGrrrR and Last but likely not both, but neither are likely scum with Rhand. So which is wrong?
Wisp is unlikely to be scum, just from his behavior alone. But why are neither likely to be scum with rhand? I've proposed a way they could have been communicating their votes. Do you think it's a possibility?
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
It eventually gets proposed in 3.3, and fails. Note: Cantrip rejected that one.Lng didn't vote.
doesnt matter, town were voting to pass that one
at the time I had a different idea of who the scum team was, that's why I wanted it proposed again, it was my own paranoia, and I was wrong. Being wrong isn't scummy
anyways, this game doesnt move forward till Cantrip proposes a team
You also, #741. Thoughts.
whats there to think about? I already agree that the game-state points to it always being cantrip/Rhand, the problem isnt them, the problem is now KJ or Grr
because 3.2 makes cantrip/Rhand/Shadow, 100% unlikely
Grr's proposal does look weird, since putting another scum on the train is bad, but not as bad with the addition of the dummy mission
and all these no votes, are just things that come from Cantrip, you, and grr being busy or lurky
I think your case is poorly made. If it was all 'not voting' then maybe but saying that Rhand voting no is saying he'll fail but not voting is also a signal... i mean it's possible but unprovable.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I think your case is poorly made. If it was all 'not voting' then maybe but saying that Rhand voting no is saying he'll fail but not voting is also a signal... i mean it's possible but unprovable.
Lngrr doesn't need to say he'll vote no, as Rhand already said he'd vote yes in that scenario.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
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LnG
Wisp
Rhand
KJ
Shadow
Ruma
Mission proposals:
1.1 (Cantrip)
Proposed: Cantrip, Lng, Last
Yes (3): Cantrip, LnG, Rhand
No (3): KJ, Wisp, Shadow
Not Voting (1): Riku
1.2 (Lng)
Proposed: KJ, LnG, Rhand
Yes (6): Rhand, KJ, Wisp, Shadow, Riku, Cantrip
Not voting (1): LnGrrrR
Results: pass pass
Dummy: KJ (pass)
2.1 (Last)
Proposed: KJ, Lng, Rhand, Last
Yes (6): Cantrip, KJ, LnGrrrR, LW, Riku, Shadow
No (1): Rhand
Results: Pass Pass Pass
Dummy: Rhand (fail)
3.1 (Rhand)
Proposed: Rhand, LnGrrrR, KJ, Cantrip
Yes (2): LnGrrrR, Rhand
No (5): Cantrip, KJ, LW, Riku, Shadow
3.2 (KJ)
Proposed: KJ, LnGrrrR, Wisp, Riku
Yes (2): Cantrip, LnG
No (5): KJ, Rhand, Riku, Shadow, Wisp
3.3 (Shadow)
Proposed: KJ, Last, LnG, Rhand
Yes (5): KJ, LW, Rhand, Riku, Shadow
No (1): Cantrip
Not voting (1): LnG
Results: Pass Pass Fail
Dummy: Rhand (Pass)
4.1 (Ruma)
Proposed: Riku, Killjoy, Lngrrr, Cantrip and Wisp
Yes (0):
No(5): KJ, Last, LnGrrrR Rhand, Shadow
Not Voting (2): Cantrip, Riku
4.2 (Cantrip)
Proposed: Cantrip, Wisp, LnG, Killjoy, Shadow
Yes (6): Cantrip, LnGrrrR, Rhand, Riku, Shadow, Wisp
No (0):
Not Voting (1): KJ
Results: Pass Pass Fail Fail
Dummy: Shadow (Pass)
Possible teams
(Last/Rhand always contains >0 scum due to mission 2, all teams will include one of them)
(Rhand/Ruma contains <2 scum due to mission 4, so no teams will include both)
Rhand, Cantrip, KJ
2.1 would require winking and nodding, 3.1 is a bit cheeky, 3.2 could check out if Rhand was no voting on principle and KJ got gunshy about his proposal.
Rhand, Cantrip, Lng
Same as above, 3.2 voting is more believable from Lng instead of KJ
Rhand, Cantrip, Last
Rhand, Last, KJ
Rhand, Last, Lng
Too many reasons why Rhand/Last don’t make sense as partners from even a mechanical standpoint. I think if they did something that...outlandish...then they got it past me.
Rhand, Lng, KJ
This would have required a significant amount of winking and nodding to even be plausible.
Last, Cantrip, Ruma
1.2 would be all town, 3.2 being risky would explain why all the no votes (granted, Cantrip yes voted. Could be a bluff)
Last, Cantrip, KJ
Checks out with everything except 3.3, which would have required some communicating.
Last, Cantrip, Lng
1.1 is funny, otherwise same as above
Last, Lng, Ruma
3.3 would need communication, and 4.2 would have been pretty risky.
Last, Lng, KJ
Too much communication needed in basically every quest, not a thing.
Last, KJ, Ruma
2.1 and 3.3 would need communication, 3.2 would have had all 3 scum. Nope.
World likelihood
Most likely:
Rhand Cantrip Lng
Last Cantrip KJ
Possible:
Rhand Cantrip KJ
Last Cantrip Lng
Unlikely but needs to be considered:
Last Cantrip Ruma
Last Lng Ruma
This is all just mechanics at this point. I was gonna do this and then run them through behavioral analysis but this day was stupid busy. So I’m posting this and I’ll do more with it later.
Quick takeaway, I don’t see any feasible world where Cantrip is not scum except mayyyybe last Lng Ruma, but I’m wrapping this up kinda quickly so it’s possible I missed something (don’t think so though). But as it stands, I want him as on of the two not on the mission. I think this game comes down to rhand vs last. I’m very curious to see how people vote, and I sort of think we shouldn’t announce vote intention ahead of time? Gonna let that thought stew for a bit. Got to go.
Talk to me about KJ?
With both are concluding on rhand/cantrkp, but you believe it's more likely grr, while I think it's KJ now
@Cantrip
Can you tell why you chose to track Shadow?
Does a team consisting of Shadow, Rhand and Cantrip make sense to you? Look at the results through that lens.
Mission 1: Proposed by LnG. KJ, LnGrrrR, rhand. Rhand is only scum, but votes pass.
Mission 2: Propoaed by LW. KJ, LnG, Rhand and LW. Rhand is only scum, LW dummies Rhand and he tries to fail unsuccessfully.
Mission 3: Proposed by Shadow. KJ, Last, LnGrrrR and Rhand. Rhand would be only scum. Shadow claims he dummied Rhand who passed.
Mission 4: Proposed by Cantrip. Cantrip, Wisp, KJ, LnGrrrR, shadow. Shadow and Cantrip are the scum. Again, Cantrip claims to have dummied Shadow, who passed.
Is there any reason why this couldn't be the case?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
There isn't any reason why, but you and KJ aren't making it any easier to come to that conclusion...
Also the fact that killjoy will probably never re-evaluate me again, makes this game impossible for town to win, if me and him are both town
The problem is, who is his partner
You, KJ, or Shadow
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
What I do know, is that I have an assignment due in 12 hours so I won't have time to do so today.
Talk to me about killjoy, what do you think of his posts since today started?
3.2 means that cantrip/shadow/Rhand is extremely unlikely
rhand/Cantrip/grr
Or Rhand/Cantrip/KJ
I think they suck, but he is probably just paranoid and spinning. Mechanically, a team with him doesn't make sense. Why approve mission 2 with Rhand on it also?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Rhand and KJ don't really make sense for mission 2. Why would KJ approve? Why would the other informant approve?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/808743-one-last-job-proposal-5-1?comment=56
KILLJOY maybe just wrong town? I'm hesitant to say bad, but like I'm already getting deja Vu if he is town...
Shadow is probably right in his mechanical post. Right about what? Who knows.
Riku: I didn't trust you, so I voted it down.
Last: The idea is that you outing Rhand makes you X% likely to not be lying, with every mission with you on it that fails after that makes you more likely to be lying.
I'm tired and have been up since 5, so I'm gonna sleep on this.
-
-
-
-
Posting while I think about No's and Yes's.
Wisp,Rhand,KJ,Shadow, Riku,
Cantrip, LnG should be taken off the team.
Rhand should be dummied.
Like... I just shared Cantrip/Shadow/Rhand up there.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
But... they can? We know there are at least two informants on the last mission. Is anyone eager to introduce Shadow as an unknown?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
you voted to yes on 3.1 after I explicitly said Rhand was a wolf???
1. Rhand is wolf
2. I am Town
3. Riku is town
now we have 4.2, where there has two be two wolves, and if we put that in conjunction with
,
and
it is more likely that Grr is the last wolf over KJ
Key points here:
1. When scum is leader, information doesn't need to be shared.
2. For some scum teams, information needs to be shared without suspicion.
3. In 1.2, Lngrr leader, Rhand scum. This is the only case that doesn't add up for Lnggrrr/Rhand/Cantrip. It could be a play, though
4. 2.1, Rhand says no to mission team. Rhand fails mission (allegedly).
5. In 3.3, Rhand votes yes to mission team, Lngrrr doesn't vote. Possibly he was meant to say 'no' here. Lngrr Fails mission.
6. In 4.2, Cantrip is leader. No information needs to be shared.
I put to the jury that Cantrip and Rhand are scum by association. Lngrrr works with this theory, but the Not Voting harms it.
Anywho. Things I know for sure.
Rhand and Wisp are almost never scum together. (2.1)
There is (likely only) one scum in Last, Lng (Or Shadow+Rhand scum) (3.3)
There are two scum in Cantrip, Wisp, Lng (OR Shadow+Cantrip scum) (4.2)
There is one scum tops between Rhand and Riku (4.2)
Lng+Rhand keep being proposed together. Both Lng and Rhand's proposals include both. Likely not scum together.
I tried to change things up with LngrrrR+Wisp+Riku(+me) and was met with a lot of resistance. Note: Cantrip+ Lng approved.
Last I specifically recall reacting in ferver that I'm scum because I didn't propose 2.1 again.
It eventually gets proposed in 3.3, and fails. Note: Cantrip rejected that one.Lng didn't vote.
I do not think that would have passed. I'm wondering if there's two scum in Lng+Wisp+Riku
THAT WOULD MEAN either Rhand+Lng+Riku OR Wisp+Lng/Wisp+Riku and not Rhand. Wisp+Riku more likely because Lng approved.Rhand+Riku is impossible.
Maybe this isn't the case, but would be interesting if it were.
Wisp, stop scumreading because killjoy is tunneling.
Tunneling can be town just not rethinking.
Killjoy, what do you think of my #741
doesnt matter, town were voting to pass that one
at the time I had a different idea of who the scum team was, that's why I wanted it proposed again, it was my own paranoia, and I was wrong. Being wrong isn't scummy
anyways, this game doesnt move forward till Cantrip proposes a team
You also, #741. Thoughts.
Wisp is unlikely to be scum, just from his behavior alone. But why are neither likely to be scum with rhand? I've proposed a way they could have been communicating their votes. Do you think it's a possibility?
because 3.2 makes cantrip/Rhand/Shadow, 100% unlikely
Grr's proposal does look weird, since putting another scum on the train is bad, but not as bad with the addition of the dummy mission
and all these no votes, are just things that come from Cantrip, you, and grr being busy or lurky
Lngrr doesn't need to say he'll vote no, as Rhand already said he'd vote yes in that scenario.