@Osie, those games are very recent actially. Rhand just found out that I was here in Stuttgart from Secret Agent mafia, then [ongoing game which I am still participating in] and now this game. Not sure if that affects your read or not given he has made it somewhat a running joke.
And since you guys can't suss it out, my point is that IF someone was the midnight desperado, claiming miller instead makes a ton of sense. They would know there is no claim vig since they are the desperado, and I would hope a millet wouldn't counterclaim them the first day.
@Osie, those games are very recent actially. Rhand just found out that I was here in Stuttgart from Secret Agent mafia, then [ongoing game which I am still participating in] and now this game. Not sure if that affects your read or not given he has made it somewhat a running joke.
And since you guys can't suss it out, my point is that IF someone was the midnight desperado, claiming miller instead makes a ton of sense. They would know there is no claim vig since they are the desperado, and I would hope a millet wouldn't counterclaim them the first day.
Hmm... That's a weird gambit, and given that miller claims are more likely to come from scum, I know I'd counterclaim that.
@Osie, those games are very recent actially. Rhand just found out that I was here in Stuttgart from Secret Agent mafia, then [ongoing game which I am still participating in] and now this game. Not sure if that affects your read or not given he has made it somewhat a running joke.
And since you guys can't suss it out, my point is that IF someone was the midnight desperado, claiming miller instead makes a ton of sense. They would know there is no claim vig since they are the desperado, and I would hope a millet wouldn't counterclaim them the first day.
Hmm... That's a weird gambit, and given that miller claims are more likely to come from scum, I know I'd counterclaim that.
Sorry, that was dumb. Miller claims are a likely claim for scum to make in most setups. In this setup, scum shouldn't claim miller if they know it exists since they'll get counterclaimed and then they're just getting 1-for-1 at best, unless they are lucky.
Anyways, it is still a weird gambit, so I would still wonder what the heck the person is doing. And given that as miller it usually makes sense to claim ASAP, the despy is likely to be counterclaiming if they try it unless they are lucky and get their first post off earlier.
Will be around starting tomorrow, spent all of my day reading through things.
Osie you are the one who makes T/S lists way earlier than basically anyone right? I remember seeing that in a different game and hating it but can't recall if that was you
Will be around starting tomorrow, spent all of my day reading through things.
Osie you are the one who makes T/S lists way earlier than basically anyone right? I remember seeing that in a different game and hating it but can't recall if that was you
Musing outloud, non zero chance Osie is scum and is framer and knows there is a town desparado.
I have thoughts about this, but I want Osie to respond to you first.
unvote
I think Osie is town for the miller claim. There is no reason at all for scum to want to claim this because as you described before claimed, mislynching toDay can end the game toNight.
Claiming miller puts us in the no lynch world, which scum!Osie would want to avoid (unless the desperado / claim vig was discarded, which is the only possible Osie!scum world).
@Osie: the miller thing was just me writing out a possible scenario. Much like you just did with the alignment cop.
@Lngr: if you think that Osie might be the desperado falseclaiming miller to protect himself in the Night, then why spell that out in thread?
@Rhand, you and shadow were discussing no lynch even before the Miller claim. not sure it really moved the dial on that way of thinking.
If Osie really is a miller, mechanically I am fine with WIFOM'ing scum. They are never going to NK Osie because of mechanical reasons for the Miller claim.
Also, in nearly every game some player pulls some preposterous junk out of his keester. Yet whenever I suggest someone might be pulling a gambit, no one has any imagination. Yeesh.
@Osie, still not tracking why shadow being townie gives you hope that Cantrip is townie. Explain like I am 5?
@Shadow: have you given roleblocker / thief any thought in that Desperado claim plan? Unless everyone goes for the same 1 or 2 targets, I think it gives scum too much info on who they best block if they have those tokens.
@Lngr: you've lost me. Can you rephrase in easier language why you think it's ok to out a possible town gambit?
I did consider the roleblocker/thief, I think the benefit potentially outweighs the downside, in that if scum choose to roleblock a player, unless that player is exactly the desparado, we can glean some info from that action; and it’s wifom a worst. And even if they hit the desparado, that means no one dies in that loop.
It doesn’t actually give any info though? Not anything concrete anyway. I also thought about suggesting fake cop checks at the start of day 2, but I think it’s less likely to actually help in a game this small.
It does tell them who's on to them, but I guess most of that would be in thread anyways.
I guess I'm ok with that plan.
So we no lynch toDay and all announce our Desperado target before Night.
I'll start by saying I don't fault Osie for claiming Miller first post... I've been taught that that's just what you do in games because if you don't and get copped, Miller is convenient as a claim. Independent of this games specific mechanics, of course.
I also have a light behavioral townread on Osie for 41 because it's a snap response to Shadow which doesn't do a thing that scum like to do. Scum like to sit in their own box of narrative that they KNOW. They don't like improvisation. I feel like this is that becausehHe's agreeing with Shadow's post about a minute after (not a lot of time to weigh if that's a good idea or not) plus Shadow and Osie were kind of in the middle of a disagreement at the time which makes it more likely honest.
There's a Thing that Osie's list of Night Actions basically excludes him from doing anything after initially claiming and tells others to avoid him as well. I see you. But I also don't disagree with the strats on the list, so I'm not caring too much about that.
Now... I plan to weigh mechanics later. It's too early for me to do that stuff. Near the end of the day I'm thinking.
Rhand: If you could start making behaviorally reads so I can more accurately read you please? Thanks.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@KJ: Any reason why you ask me and not Shadow for example?
First impressions:
Osie town (explained before)
Shadow big townlean (solid ideas to solve the game)
Cantrip slight scumlean (only based on one post though, need more)
Lngr slight scumlean (needs to respond to me)
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Not gonna lie, I’m kind of spooked that me saying “hey we should talk about the merits of no lynch” has gotten the response of people all being in favor of the “no lynch plan”.
Still think it’s pribably worthwhile, but people should still be hunting. (Yes, including me, I’ve been moderately lazy the past 30 posts)
Maybe I'm just slow or Rusty but what are the merits of no lynching with a claimed Miller? Shadow mentioned it and others seed to jump right on board but I don't understand the benefits to us going that route.
I'm inclined to believe Osie, right now it's just a bunch of wine with no other information or actions, as the downside. But, that was at the cost of playing Miller properly. The game is balanced around all the roles so we can't try and break the game right now knowing that, tomorrow though maybe.
This game is going to be won based on analysis, and not mechanics, so I propose we start by going that route.
Rhand sounds eager to get to the night phase in 67, which comes across as scummy to me, especially as it's in context of pushing no lynching which I don't think benefits the town. Slight town points to KJ and Shadow, KJ for asking for people to post so he could get reads, and Shadow for thoroughly talking through after Osies claim
@Cantrip Hiding in the shadows is what I do best though, but I couldn't stay away forever!
What part of “Now all we need is for everyone to start posting.” makes me eager to end the Day Anak?
My goal with that post was to finalize the practical discussion so people would actually look for scum instead.
Why are you asking about the benefits of no lynching while at the same time attacking me for agreeing to no lynch “which you don’t think benefits town”?
The reason for the no lynch plan is that we can lose N1 if we mislynch toDay.
@Anak, if there is a claim vig, and we mislynch today, then scum vig kills Osie, then another townie (assuming kill goes through) for 2 and 2 tomorrow morning for assuming scum win.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Rhand, because it is probably wrong and I am fine with giving scum WIFOM. Plus, Osie's reaction indicates I am likely flat out wrong.
Unvote I am fine with the no lynch plan.
Did you think you were wrong when you posted that?
Osie throwing shade on me for thinking he was lying in a townie way made me think I was likely incorrect.
Then the question stands. Why were you ok with outing his possible gambit before you knew you were incorrect?
Because I hinted at it, he replied in a way that made me think I was wrong, but probably more importantly, I was annoyed everyone was acting like I was crazy instead of just thinking through the scenario. I am not going to sit here and be treated like a loonie because people aren't creative.
I can only say that in so many ways. Kinda running out here.
@KJ, I think the other relevant part of the no lynch plan is so everyone can fire off their abilities for analysis. Everyone has some ability in this game so no-lynch isn't as useless as it might be in a game with VTs. Plus, with abilities being opposed and open, makes it harder for scum to hide in ability claims.
This is really the last post I want to commit to the no lynch thing. This is @Anak and @KJ.
If we mislynch toDay AND {the claim vig hits OR the desperado misses} AND the NK hits, we lose (3 town deaths = 2 vs 2 = scum win)
To prevent that: {no lynch OR scum lynch} OR {claim vig misses OR Desperado hits OR Desperado doesn't fire} OR NK misses OR desperado token was discarded.
no lynch OR scum lynch: there's never enough info on D1 to have a sure scum lynch. Pending a huge slip, we shouldn't count on that. No lynch is the only safe option here.
claim vig or NK misses: we need the doc token to prevent those. 5 chances out of 8 we have that; those are not comfortable odds. And we can't have it claim if it exists, as that gives a possible claim vig a target to shoot that can't be protected, so we'll have to go to Night not knowing if there's a chance of surviving. Bad idea.
Desperado hits: that would be awesome, but again, not enough info on D1 to be sure of this. And missing costs us the game. And this requires the token to be in town.
Desperado doesn't fire: it would be a good option that activates our lynch again, but we can't count on the token being in town hands, so it's an unreliable option.
Desperado was discarded: no way of finding that out.
Basically if we want to lynch, the desperado / claim vig token is the only one we can lynch without possibly losing to a mislynch. No lynching is always better in this case unless we massclaim and decide the desperado claim has enough scum equity to lynch it. Which is a bad idea again because scum might have thief / roleblock tokens, and we don't want them to know where to target those.
@Rhand, because it is probably wrong and I am fine with giving scum WIFOM. Plus, Osie's reaction indicates I am likely flat out wrong.
Unvote I am fine with the no lynch plan.
Did you think you were wrong when you posted that?
Osie throwing shade on me for thinking he was lying in a townie way made me think I was likely incorrect.
Then the question stands. Why were you ok with outing his possible gambit before you knew you were incorrect?
Because I hinted at it, he replied in a way that made me think I was wrong, but probably more importantly, I was annoyed everyone was acting like I was crazy instead of just thinking through the scenario. I am not going to sit here and be treated like a loonie because people aren't creative.
I can only say that in so many ways. Kinda running out here.
@KJ, I think the other relevant part of the no lynch plan is so everyone can fire off their abilities for analysis. Everyone has some ability in this game so no-lynch isn't as useless as it might be in a game with VTs. Plus, with abilities being opposed and open, makes it harder for scum to hide in ability claims.
I don't think we were treating you like a loonie. I think people just were trying to understand where you were coming from.
This is really the last post I want to commit to the no lynch thing. This is @Anak and @KJ.
If we mislynch toDay AND {the claim vig hits OR the desperado misses} AND the NK hits, we lose (3 town deaths = 2 vs 2 = scum win)
To prevent that: {no lynch OR scum lynch} OR {claim vig misses OR Desperado hits OR Desperado doesn't fire} OR NK misses OR desperado token was discarded.
no lynch OR scum lynch: there's never enough info on D1 to have a sure scum lynch. Pending a huge slip, we shouldn't count on that. No lynch is the only safe option here.
claim vig or NK misses: we need the doc token to prevent those. 5 chances out of 8 we have that; those are not comfortable odds. And we can't have it claim if it exists, as that gives a possible claim vig a target to shoot that can't be protected, so we'll have to go to Night not knowing if there's a chance of surviving. Bad idea.
Desperado hits: that would be awesome, but again, not enough info on D1 to be sure of this. And missing costs us the game. And this requires the token to be in town.
Desperado doesn't fire: it would be a good option that activates our lynch again, but we can't count on the token being in town hands, so it's an unreliable option.
Desperado was discarded: no way of finding that out.
Basically if we want to lynch, the desperado / claim vig token is the only one we can lynch without possibly losing to a mislynch. No lynching is always better in this case unless we massclaim and decide the desperado claim has enough scum equity to lynch it. Which is a bad idea again because scum might have thief / roleblock tokens, and we don't want them to know where to target those.
I mean, if noone else claims, then the doc just targets me.
The thing about no Lynch is you also don't have any confirmed assignments for the next day.
And scum are obviously gonna try and produce as much wine as possible using the lack of info.
Is basically just weighing risk vs. Reward on risking dead town vs hitting scum D1 (although I think D1 is overwhelmingly a mislynch? I'd have to put stats together. )
So just in general is a bad idea because in the end analysis beats mechanics 99 times out of 100.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Actually I hadn't considered the vigs. I'll have to think. And I'll have to look back on the previous token games because I recall going into mechanics there.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@KJ: Confirmed assignments?
And I’m going back and forth, because in general I agree with you, behavior is more important, but we also end up with risking only day 1 behavior and then boom game over.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@KJ Got a townread on Shadow, his initial thought about no lynching and subsequent questions read to me as genuine game solving, and not prying for information or trying to slant us in a way that's bad for the town.
No lynching feels wrong, but every time I try to come up with a reason why I fail to do so just on a pure logic basis. Which is really annoying honestly. Best I can say is it feels like playing to not lose vs. playing to win
And since you guys can't suss it out, my point is that IF someone was the midnight desperado, claiming miller instead makes a ton of sense. They would know there is no claim vig since they are the desperado, and I would hope a millet wouldn't counterclaim them the first day.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Hmm... That's a weird gambit, and given that miller claims are more likely to come from scum, I know I'd counterclaim that.
Sorry, that was dumb. Miller claims are a likely claim for scum to make in most setups. In this setup, scum shouldn't claim miller if they know it exists since they'll get counterclaimed and then they're just getting 1-for-1 at best, unless they are lucky.
Osie you are the one who makes T/S lists way earlier than basically anyone right? I remember seeing that in a different game and hating it but can't recall if that was you
I have been known to do that, yes.
I'm liking you for the effort you're putting in to solving, but this rang hollow.
I think Osie is town for the miller claim. There is no reason at all for scum to want to claim this because as you described before claimed, mislynching toDay can end the game toNight.
Claiming miller puts us in the no lynch world, which scum!Osie would want to avoid (unless the desperado / claim vig was discarded, which is the only possible Osie!scum world).
@Osie: the miller thing was just me writing out a possible scenario. Much like you just did with the alignment cop.
@Lngr: if you think that Osie might be the desperado falseclaiming miller to protect himself in the Night, then why spell that out in thread?
Not liking Cantrip’s waffly question to Osie.
Elementary. I agree with it. You're at null.
If Osie really is a miller, mechanically I am fine with WIFOM'ing scum. They are never going to NK Osie because of mechanical reasons for the Miller claim.
Also, in nearly every game some player pulls some preposterous junk out of his keester. Yet whenever I suggest someone might be pulling a gambit, no one has any imagination. Yeesh.
@Osie, still not tracking why shadow being townie gives you hope that Cantrip is townie. Explain like I am 5?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
@Lngr: you've lost me. Can you rephrase in easier language why you think it's ok to out a possible town gambit?
It still feels a bit iffy to give scum all that info though.
I guess I'm ok with that plan.
So we no lynch toDay and all announce our Desperado target before Night.
Now all we need is for everyone to start posting.
Very low-level read: Cantrip's first post was a chainsaw vote of Anak for voting Shadow.
P.s. My phone tries to autocorrect Anak to something awkward...
I also have a light behavioral townread on Osie for 41 because it's a snap response to Shadow which doesn't do a thing that scum like to do. Scum like to sit in their own box of narrative that they KNOW. They don't like improvisation. I feel like this is that becausehHe's agreeing with Shadow's post about a minute after (not a lot of time to weigh if that's a good idea or not) plus Shadow and Osie were kind of in the middle of a disagreement at the time which makes it more likely honest.
There's a Thing that Osie's list of Night Actions basically excludes him from doing anything after initially claiming and tells others to avoid him as well. I see you. But I also don't disagree with the strats on the list, so I'm not caring too much about that.
Now... I plan to weigh mechanics later. It's too early for me to do that stuff. Near the end of the day I'm thinking.
Rhand: If you could start making behaviorally reads so I can more accurately read you please? Thanks.
First impressions:
Osie town (explained before)
Shadow big townlean (solid ideas to solve the game)
Cantrip slight scumlean (only based on one post though, need more)
Lngr slight scumlean (needs to respond to me)
Everyone else null.
Unvote I am fine with the no lynch plan.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Anak (1): cantrip
Not voting: kj, lngrr, osi, rhand, shadow
Still think it’s pribably worthwhile, but people should still be hunting. (Yes, including me, I’ve been moderately lazy the past 30 posts)
Did you think you were wrong when you posted that?
Maybe I'm just slow or Rusty but what are the merits of no lynching with a claimed Miller? Shadow mentioned it and others seed to jump right on board but I don't understand the benefits to us going that route.
I'm inclined to believe Osie, right now it's just a bunch of wine with no other information or actions, as the downside. But, that was at the cost of playing Miller properly. The game is balanced around all the roles so we can't try and break the game right now knowing that, tomorrow though maybe.
This game is going to be won based on analysis, and not mechanics, so I propose we start by going that route.
Rhand sounds eager to get to the night phase in 67, which comes across as scummy to me, especially as it's in context of pushing no lynching which I don't think benefits the town. Slight town points to KJ and Shadow, KJ for asking for people to post so he could get reads, and Shadow for thoroughly talking through after Osies claim
@Cantrip Hiding in the shadows is what I do best though, but I couldn't stay away forever!
My goal with that post was to finalize the practical discussion so people would actually look for scum instead.
Why are you asking about the benefits of no lynching while at the same time attacking me for agreeing to no lynch “which you don’t think benefits town”?
The reason for the no lynch plan is that we can lose N1 if we mislynch toDay.
Osie throwing shade on me for thinking he was lying in a townie way made me think I was likely incorrect.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Then the question stands. Why were you ok with outing his possible gambit before you knew you were incorrect?
I'm not certain it's the best move yet but will think about it today, it seems to hinge on the scum vig.
@Rhand ah okay, I agree with you then. Just had time for a quick glance through the thread and genuinely though wanted us to end the day already.
But Law of Whatever Law I'm Thinking Of says that most games don't benefit from no lynching D1. Literally no info is not worth no lynching D1.
Anak: What's your impression of Shadow right now?
Because I hinted at it, he replied in a way that made me think I was wrong, but probably more importantly, I was annoyed everyone was acting like I was crazy instead of just thinking through the scenario. I am not going to sit here and be treated like a loonie because people aren't creative.
I can only say that in so many ways. Kinda running out here.
@KJ, I think the other relevant part of the no lynch plan is so everyone can fire off their abilities for analysis. Everyone has some ability in this game so no-lynch isn't as useless as it might be in a game with VTs. Plus, with abilities being opposed and open, makes it harder for scum to hide in ability claims.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
If we mislynch toDay AND {the claim vig hits OR the desperado misses} AND the NK hits, we lose (3 town deaths = 2 vs 2 = scum win)
To prevent that: {no lynch OR scum lynch} OR {claim vig misses OR Desperado hits OR Desperado doesn't fire} OR NK misses OR desperado token was discarded.
no lynch OR scum lynch: there's never enough info on D1 to have a sure scum lynch. Pending a huge slip, we shouldn't count on that. No lynch is the only safe option here.
claim vig or NK misses: we need the doc token to prevent those. 5 chances out of 8 we have that; those are not comfortable odds. And we can't have it claim if it exists, as that gives a possible claim vig a target to shoot that can't be protected, so we'll have to go to Night not knowing if there's a chance of surviving. Bad idea.
Desperado hits: that would be awesome, but again, not enough info on D1 to be sure of this. And missing costs us the game. And this requires the token to be in town.
Desperado doesn't fire: it would be a good option that activates our lynch again, but we can't count on the token being in town hands, so it's an unreliable option.
Desperado was discarded: no way of finding that out.
Basically if we want to lynch, the desperado / claim vig token is the only one we can lynch without possibly losing to a mislynch. No lynching is always better in this case unless we massclaim and decide the desperado claim has enough scum equity to lynch it. Which is a bad idea again because scum might have thief / roleblock tokens, and we don't want them to know where to target those.
I don't think we were treating you like a loonie. I think people just were trying to understand where you were coming from.
I mean, if noone else claims, then the doc just targets me.
And scum are obviously gonna try and produce as much wine as possible using the lack of info.
Is basically just weighing risk vs. Reward on risking dead town vs hitting scum D1 (although I think D1 is overwhelmingly a mislynch? I'd have to put stats together. )
So just in general is a bad idea because in the end analysis beats mechanics 99 times out of 100.
And I’m going back and forth, because in general I agree with you, behavior is more important, but we also end up with risking only day 1 behavior and then boom game over.
Yeah... Despy claim means scum can roleblock or thief and then we just lose. I think we go for the no lynch and then claim D2 route.
Except for motivator.
Funny story though... I might have forgotten that the scum get a night kill. So I was not factoring that death into my calculations.
Derpclear denied.
No lynching feels wrong, but every time I try to come up with a reason why I fail to do so just on a pure logic basis. Which is really annoying honestly. Best I can say is it feels like playing to not lose vs. playing to win