No lynching feels wrong, but every time I try to come up with a reason why I fail to do so just on a pure logic basis. Which is really annoying honestly. Best I can say is it feels like playing to not lose vs. playing to win
That's fair. Scum not using the claim vig on me if they have it is strategically wrong assuming nobody else claims today, so if that kill isn't there/is prevented (or a Despy kill is), then the claim vig likely isn't around. Holstering with the thought that people will waste their protections is an idea, but it's not clear that it's worth giving town that extra day, especially if town forms at least a 3-player towncore (Shadow+Osie+???)
Rhand has jumped up on my reads after further activity, and Killjoy and Anak both have pinged me both positively and negatively. Cantrip is still a relatively blank slate. LnGrrrR still looks scummy.
Come to think of it, Cantrip's 2nd post was not great in the sense that it was pretty easy, and the entry was already a bit of a scumping. I'll just make that a straight scumlean.
Sorry for my lack of contribution. We're having a lot of fun right now with a blizzard that has played havoc with everything in my life, including my internet access.
I agree with the no lynch plan, but I'm unsure about the "name a target" plan. Would we be naming who we planned to target [with our own ability, which we won't disclose], or who we planned to target [if we were the despy]?
Something about Anak's posts feels off, but maybe that's just because he's returning from hiatus.
Unvote
KJ's apparent lack of consideration of the entire setup or that we're playing mafia doesn't feel likely.
@Osie: I don't understand your explanation of the Thief ability. What item(s) can the thief end up with if not the ability of his target? I have the question in to Tom, but I'd like to hear your explanation.
@Osie: I don't understand your explanation of the Thief ability. What item(s) can the thief end up with if not the ability of his target? I have the question in to Tom, but I'd like to hear your explanation.
@Osie: I don't understand your explanation of the Thief ability. What item(s) can the thief end up with if not the ability of his target? I have the question in to Tom, but I'd like to hear your explanation.
The Baker's bread loaf.
Also, if the Thief steals from someone who has already used their ability but didn't have their token stolen, and then gets motivated, they can use the scum side of that token.
@Cantrip: Take care there... that sounds like an awful situation.
The target naming: you would name your target as if you were desperado.
I’m at KJ > Cantrip > Anak >> Lngr > Shadow >> Osie.
KJ feels like he’s putting up an act.
Cantrip waffles in both his posts.
Anak doesn’t ping me either way.
Lngr doesn’t seem to understand the danger of outing a possible town gambit at all, which I think makes him likely town.
Shadow proposed a plan that makes sure we get a Day with Night action info. I don’t think scum would do that.
Osie is radiating townyness. If this is scum!Osie, then hats off.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Cantrip: Take care there... that sounds like an awful situation.
The target naming: you would name your target as if you were desperado.
I’m at KJ > Cantrip > Anak >> Lngr > Shadow >> Osie.
KJ feels like he’s putting up an act.
Cantrip waffles in both his posts.
Anak doesn’t ping me either way.
Lngr doesn’t seem to understand the danger of outing a possible town gambit at all, which I think makes him likely town.
Shadow proposed a plan that makes sure we get a Day with Night action info. I don’t think scum would do that.
Osie is radiating townyness. If this is scum!Osie, then hats off.
Actually, Rhand... walk me through this post. I wanna hear mostly about Osie but just tell me about the others a bit too.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Cantrip: Take care there... that sounds like an awful situation.
The target naming: you would name your target as if you were desperado.
I’m at KJ > Cantrip > Anak >> Lngr > Shadow >> Osie.
KJ feels like he’s putting up an act.
Cantrip waffles in both his posts.
Anak doesn’t ping me either way.
Lngr doesn’t seem to understand the danger of outing a possible town gambit at all, which I think makes him likely town.
Shadow proposed a plan that makes sure we get a Day with Night action info. I don’t think scum would do that.
Osie is radiating townyness. If this is scum!Osie, then hats off.
Actually, Rhand... walk me through this post. I wanna hear mostly about Osie but just tell me about the others a bit too.
I'll start by saying I don't fault Osie for claiming Miller first post... I've been taught that that's just what you do in games because if you don't and get copped, Miller is convenient as a claim. Independent of this games specific mechanics, of course.
I also have a light behavioral townread on Osie for 41 because it's a snap response to Shadow which doesn't do a thing that scum like to do. Scum like to sit in their own box of narrative that they KNOW. They don't like improvisation. I feel like this is that becausehHe's agreeing with Shadow's post about a minute after (not a lot of time to weigh if that's a good idea or not) plus Shadow and Osie were kind of in the middle of a disagreement at the time which makes it more likely honest.
There's a Thing that Osie's list of Night Actions basically excludes him from doing anything after initially claiming and tells others to avoid him as well. I see you. But I also don't disagree with the strats on the list, so I'm not caring too much about that.
Now... I plan to weigh mechanics later. It's too early for me to do that stuff. Near the end of the day I'm thinking.
Rhand: If you could start making behaviorally reads so I can more accurately read you please? Thanks.
Nothing about the no lynch, and a question to me that makes me worried about KJ (he ALWAYS thinks I’m scum on D1 of every game we play together. Him wanting to ‘more accurately read me’ sounds nice, but he knows he can’t.
When I ask him why me and not Shadow, this is his answer:
I don't think the no lynch plan is NECESSARILY bad? Mostly because gamesize.
But Law of Whatever Law I'm Thinking Of says that most games don't benefit from no lynching D1. Literally no info is not worth no lynching D1.
Anak: What's your impression of Shadow right now?
It seems like he hasn’t given the whole discussion he was so interested in no thought at all: he gives only blanket statements about no lynching in general: not necessarily bad because of gamesize but not worth it because no info. He doesn’t even touch the whole point of town maybe losing N1 if we mislynch.
He spends a few more posts talking about why we should lynch, to then forget that there’s a NK.
The reason KJ feels like he’s putting on an act is that he throws out the townread on Osie that everyone is agreeing with anyways, then pretends to be able to read me (I gave him the benefit of the doubt on that one at first, but now I think he was using it as an intro to throw out a fake scumread on me) and his mechanical interest looks fake because he clearly didn’t give that real thought when he was giving his reasoning for lynching toDay.
Not much to say about him. He’s just not taking stances. I’ve bolded that in both his non-RVS posts.
Sorry for my lack of contribution. We're having a lot of fun right now with a blizzard that has played havoc with everything in my life, including my internet access.
I agree with the no lynch plan, but I'm unsure about the "name a target" plan. Would we be naming who we planned to target [with our own ability, which we won't disclose], or who we planned to target [if we were the despy]?
Something about Anak's posts feels off, but maybe that's just because he's returning from hiatus.
Unvote
KJ's apparent lack of consideration of the entire setup or that we're playing mafia doesn't feel likely.
@Osie: I don't understand your explanation of the Thief ability. What item(s) can the thief end up with if not the ability of his target? I have the question in to Tom, but I'd like to hear your explanation.
I am drained, sorry I can't muster more atm.
I do like his comment on KJ in that last post.
He seems to be trying to scumhunt and to understand the game mechanics and the no lynching while having not much depth to his posts. I need more from him to form a read.
I thought he was scum for his outing of Osie’s probably non-existing gambit, but he really doesn’t seem to understand that there would be a big issue if that were true. I don’t think there’s scum motivation behind this. He reads like naïve town.
There’s also the not knowing what a Desperado does.
The one thing that does bother me is that he seems to only react to other people without giving thoughts of his own, but I think that’s a standard D1 thing for him.
I Iike how he came up with a plan that allows us to use our PR’s toNight without the risk of losing the game.
He also has the 2 same scumreads as I have, which is a good sign.
He’s thinking strategically on how to win this setup, while at the same time throwing out reads and trying to catch scum. Pure town behavior.
I've played a lot of games with Rhand and (like he says) in those games I usually scumread him at some point. I think usually when he's town.
But during that time I think I've become adequately familiar with his playstyle and his process. He pokes people, he asks questions (that don't always make sense to me as things that will yield much but they work for him I suppose so *shrug*), and there's a progression that he has.
His most pronounced scumread is on me right now and it has none of those things. They're too... I don't wanna say confident but that IS true, there's a better word that not coming to me right now.
He seems to have subverted his process to reach it. Which makes me think he maybe had the conclusion in mind and fit the case to that instead of arriving at it naturally.
I feel like Rhand also knows that if I don't have strong feeling toward a particular plan or strategy that I don't always come down on one side of it, but I know know what Rhand actually KNOWS so this is more of a reason for me instead of a reason overall.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I don’t know if I really want to explain my meta, but you have a few things wrong there KJ.
One that stands out that I don’t mind sharing (because it’s obvious in my meta anyways): I do get confident in my early reads because they’re often right.
Also, not every scumread I arrive at is due to my own questioning. I generally focus on one person and move on when I decide that person is the wrong one to push (like Lngr in this game).
I don't doubt you get confident, but that's why I didn't want to use it because it's not accurate. I think your most accurate reads come after the poking and prodding you usually do. Which I feel like when dealing with me you'd do but you haven't. I guess the level of confidence in my being scum should be less than what you're projecting IMO.
But my point is there's no progression. You basically started with a scumread on me with nothing leading up to it. I strongly feel like this isn't your style.
Imagine I'm town though. Are either of Cantrip/ Shadow scum for that? Both? Neither? Why?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@KJ: why would you being town have an impact on Cantrip or I?
I’m literally still at this:
Shadow
Osie
Rhand
Lngr
Anak
Cantrip/KJ
Also, despite everything, there is a possible advantage to lynching today; if KJ is scum, I’m almost certain that town has the despy Role (Or it’s not in the game) which means if we do lynch, and don’t hit scum, it increases the hit percentage of the despy Role...
Huh, if KJ is town, that sort of blows that theory up. Well dang it.
If my read on you is the reason you're scumreading me, then why ask me "I wanna hear mostly about Osie but just tell me about the others a bit too."?
Like I said, you feel fake this game. That's why I started scumreading you.
Cantrip doesn't look too good regardless your alignment.
Shadow is probably town regardless your alignment.
Shadow: Because scum like to push scummy town. You're kind of like passively pushing me behind Rhand while cantrip is a little there too. He's less.
Why are Lngrrr and Anak in that order? They're both kinda the same in terms of activity and content.
Rhand because I wanted to see your reasoning on him. It also had to do with the whole "too much confidence" tell I was mentioning earlier.
Why are both those true? And why regardless of my alignment?
I'm willing to drop the meta read since I'm apparently wrong about it but please explain this.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
See 125. I think he's approaching you legitimately unsure of your alignment. There's bits of his posts that ping me as manipulative, but 115 felt real.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I don't want to no Lynch but I shall don't want to Lynch people that I'm not somewhat sure of. Right now I wouldn't even Lynch Shadow. Like if we had to Lynch right at this moment.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I don't want to no Lynch but I shall don't want to Lynch people that I'm not somewhat sure of. Right now I wouldn't even Lynch Shadow. Like if we had to Lynch right at this moment.
I don't want to no Lynch but I shall don't want to Lynch people that I'm not somewhat sure of. Right now I wouldn't even Lynch Shadow. Like if we had to Lynch right at this moment.
Shadow is closest though for sure.
wut?
I'm not as sure as if like to be about you too want to Lynch you right now.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Blegh this game is difficult, since a no lynch looks pretty likely nobody's voting or really doing anything besides discussing mechanics and a bit of meta. Honestly if we're going to no lynch then let's just get to it since otherwise we'll just spin our wheels for days before hand anyway.
Sorry been a busy couple days, and I'm going to be away with no internet for the weekend, will be back and posting Sunday evening though.
Actually, can you hold off just a little longer, please? I spent some time this afternoon reading the thread with a critical eye--first chance I've really gotten since the game began--and I have some questions/observations that I'm compiling. Post to come shortly.
@Tom: Since you didn't respond to my PM, will you respond in-thread? Can you explicitly state what the thief role does?
While you're at it, will you publicly confirm what happens if Despy targets GF/framed town/miller? (Does the Despy "see" the actual alignment or the "fake" alignment?)
And is Osie's 107 accurate ("...if the Thief steals from someone who has already used their ability but didn't have their token stolen, and then gets motivated, they can use the scum side of that token.")?
@Shadow:
• Why didn't you vote anyone in RVS?
• Am I wrong in believing that thinking about worst case situations pre-game and bringing them up is well within your scum wheelhouse?
• Per your suggested plan in 15, what's to differentiate between "despy targeted scum and was the NK target" and "despy targeted scum and the NK was successfully doc'd"?
• ...and I apparently didn't read any of your posts after 15? I actually didn't have any questions or concerns with your other posts, which is odd enough that now I'm thinking I need to read your iso. But I've made everyone wait too long already, and I've got other projects to catch up on, so I'll do that next opportunity.
@Rhand:
• Your 14 feels a bit like fearmongering, in that you are proposing a plan of action (No despy shot + no miller claim), identifying a problem with that plan ("we can’t push anyone to claim and then not lynch them"), and then apparently giving up rather than offering alternative solutions.
• Your point that Osie's unlikely to be scum for the miller claim is a good one, and I feel like you're town for it unless specifically scum with Osie.
• Some mindmeld with your thought in 63 that unless we go for narrowed targets with the despy plan, we're letting scum plan around it, but I like Shadow's response to that in the next post.
@Killjoy:
• Something feels off about your 24. I started out thinking it felt bloodthirsty, but that's not quite it.
• Why did you ask Anak how he felt about Shadow in 82 when Anak had just recently indicated awarding slight town points to Shadow in 76?
• As I already mentioned, it's hard for me to wrap my head around a town player not considering the NK.
• I really don't like your question to Shadow in 120 about his order of LnG and Anak. Your addendum of "they're both kinda the same in terms of activity and content" feels like a logical fallacy...strawman, maybe? I feel like LnG has contributed quite a bit more to the conversation than Anak has, and I definitely have a stronger sense of LnG's presence/opinion. I feel like if you flip scum, there's a good chance your buddy is one of the two. The part of that post when you question Rhand on his reads of me and Shadow feels false, as well. Why did you use the phrase "why are those both true"? (specifically the bolded)?
• In 132, when you say that scum!Shadow has "dead town" to gain from letting Rhand push you...how exactly, when we're not lynching toDay?
@Osie:
• You talked quite a lot in 25 about what you didn't lose by claiming miller. What do/did you gain from claiming miller?
• Oh, you expounded in 33. Ok, so less chance you get copped, and you feel confident enough in your ability that if scum don't kill you, you'll be able to figure it out. You do realize that you saying that you haven't much thought about scum equity of such a plan doesn't do anything for us, right? And, especially given your posting restriction choices in Scum Love the King, I don't really see scum!Osie as a "go with the flow" kind of player. The scum equity of such a plan, by the way, is very similar: less chance you get copped, less question as to why you're still alive late game (because the scum are trying to lynch you, obv), less chance of being watched, and greater chance the doc or bodyguard wastes their shots on you.
• In 43 you say "most of the time, [me claiming Miller] helps the town more than it hurts it, it's just risky." Is there more "help" than narrowing cop targets? Why does that outweigh the possibility of an extra scum kill, even if the percentage of scum having a claim vig is small?
• 49: Yes, you should declare a fake Despy target.
• Your 68.....wut? Did you seriously just suggest, even on a very low-level, that my RVS was a chainsaw? The 4th post of the game?
• Re: your 101, I can't help but tinfoil the possibility that you're on the scum team, there's a claim vig, you know the miller/framer card isn't in play (or one of you is the framer), and your 101 is designed to set up a scenario where the claim vig doesn't shoot N1 to "confirm" you/suggest that there's no claim vig, regular NK occurs, single mislynch D2 + NK OR Claim Vig seals the deal.
@LnG:
• Your question to Osie in 30 doesn't make sense. Osie voted Rhand for 14, not for Rhand's vote of you in 4. That said, I'm guessing this was probably a post confusion derp.
• I don't understand why you would suspect Osie of a town gambit only to expose the possibility of that gambit (rather than using Osie's responses to justify a town read on him).
• I like your train of thought in 52. Doesn't sound like the kind of corner case thinking that would come from scum trying to shade Osie. Unless you're specifically scum with Osie and this is a planned gambit (which I think is unlikely), this puts you at townlean for me.
• Your 83 feels very open and townie.
@Anak:
• 56: Why do you hate early T/S lists?
• How do I not have any other questions for you? I apparently need to iso you, too.
• Hmm, actually, what are your thoughts on me and LnG?
In 43 you say "most of the time, [me claiming Miller] helps the town more than it hurts it, it's just risky." Is there more "help" than narrowing cop targets? Why does that outweigh the possibility of an extra scum kill, even if the percentage of scum having a claim vig is small?
I think this is the only real question for me?
Unless scum think I'm incompetent or an easy mislynch (both of which could be the case, I guess), then I'm the target of a nightkill.
In 43 you say "most of the time, [me claiming Miller] helps the town more than it hurts it, it's just risky." Is there more "help" than narrowing cop targets? Why does that outweigh the possibility of an extra scum kill, even if the percentage of scum having a claim vig is small?
I think this is the only real question for me?
Unless scum think I'm incompetent or an easy mislynch (both of which could be the case, I guess), then I'm the target of a nightkill.
So you claiming miller narrows cop targets and draws the NK to you, with a slight chance of an extra mafia kill if they have the claim vig? Again, why do those two benefits outweigh the possibility of an extra kill, especially since, if you are playing well, you would be less likely to be copped and more likely to be NK'd, anyway?
Also, I really would like to know how serious your 68 was.
That's fair. Scum not using the claim vig on me if they have it is strategically wrong assuming nobody else claims today, so if that kill isn't there/is prevented (or a Despy kill is), then the claim vig likely isn't around. Holstering with the thought that people will waste their protections is an idea, but it's not clear that it's worth giving town that extra day, especially if town forms at least a 3-player towncore (Shadow+Osie+???)
Rhand has jumped up on my reads after further activity, and Killjoy and Anak both have pinged me both positively and negatively. Cantrip is still a relatively blank slate. LnGrrrR still looks scummy.
Town:
Osie
Shadow
Null/Neutral:
Anaklusmos
Killjoy
Rhand
Inactive:
Cantripmancer
Scum:
LnGrrrR
I agree with the no lynch plan, but I'm unsure about the "name a target" plan. Would we be naming who we planned to target [with our own ability, which we won't disclose], or who we planned to target [if we were the despy]?
Something about Anak's posts feels off, but maybe that's just because he's returning from hiatus.
Unvote
KJ's apparent lack of consideration of the entire setup or that we're playing mafia doesn't feel likely.
@Osie: I don't understand your explanation of the Thief ability. What item(s) can the thief end up with if not the ability of his target? I have the question in to Tom, but I'd like to hear your explanation.
I am drained, sorry I can't muster more atm.
The Baker's bread loaf.
Also, if the Thief steals from someone who has already used their ability but didn't have their token stolen, and then gets motivated, they can use the scum side of that token.
The target naming: you would name your target as if you were desperado.
I’m at KJ > Cantrip > Anak >> Lngr > Shadow >> Osie.
KJ feels like he’s putting up an act.
Cantrip waffles in both his posts.
Anak doesn’t ping me either way.
Lngr doesn’t seem to understand the danger of outing a possible town gambit at all, which I think makes him likely town.
Shadow proposed a plan that makes sure we get a Day with Night action info. I don’t think scum would do that.
Osie is radiating townyness. If this is scum!Osie, then hats off.
I think I'm gonna reread.
I'll expand after Rhand answers me because I don't wanna feed him answers.
Standing on the sidelines, showing interest in presumably both the no lynch idea and Osie’s miller claim + Shadow’s reaction.
In his next post, he does weigh in on the miller claim and what it does for his read on Osie, but he keeps both options open:
Nothing about the no lynch, and a question to me that makes me worried about KJ (he ALWAYS thinks I’m scum on D1 of every game we play together. Him wanting to ‘more accurately read me’ sounds nice, but he knows he can’t.
When I ask him why me and not Shadow, this is his answer:
Which I initially was ok with; maybe he found something new in my meta.
When he finally weighs in on the mechanics, this is what we get:
It seems like he hasn’t given the whole discussion he was so interested in no thought at all: he gives only blanket statements about no lynching in general: not necessarily bad because of gamesize but not worth it because no info. He doesn’t even touch the whole point of town maybe losing N1 if we mislynch.
He spends a few more posts talking about why we should lynch, to then forget that there’s a NK.
The reason KJ feels like he’s putting on an act is that he throws out the townread on Osie that everyone is agreeing with anyways, then pretends to be able to read me (I gave him the benefit of the doubt on that one at first, but now I think he was using it as an intro to throw out a fake scumread on me) and his mechanical interest looks fake because he clearly didn’t give that real thought when he was giving his reasoning for lynching toDay.
Not much to say about him. He’s just not taking stances. I’ve bolded that in both his non-RVS posts.
I do like his comment on KJ in that last post.
He seems to be trying to scumhunt and to understand the game mechanics and the no lynching while having not much depth to his posts. I need more from him to form a read.
I thought he was scum for his outing of Osie’s probably non-existing gambit, but he really doesn’t seem to understand that there would be a big issue if that were true. I don’t think there’s scum motivation behind this. He reads like naïve town.
There’s also the not knowing what a Desperado does.
The one thing that does bother me is that he seems to only react to other people without giving thoughts of his own, but I think that’s a standard D1 thing for him.
I Iike how he came up with a plan that allows us to use our PR’s toNight without the risk of losing the game.
He also has the 2 same scumreads as I have, which is a good sign.
He’s thinking strategically on how to win this setup, while at the same time throwing out reads and trying to catch scum. Pure town behavior.
Planning to reread in the next 5-6 hours. Will toss out an updated read list then, but on the whole I’m feeling similar to where Rhand is at.
Not voting: anak, cantrip, kj, lngrr, osi, rhand, shadow
Lets go ahead and make deadline wednesday the 20th at noon PST, but yall can end day at any time by majjing (including votes for no lynch)
I've played a lot of games with Rhand and (like he says) in those games I usually scumread him at some point. I think usually when he's town.
But during that time I think I've become adequately familiar with his playstyle and his process. He pokes people, he asks questions (that don't always make sense to me as things that will yield much but they work for him I suppose so *shrug*), and there's a progression that he has.
His most pronounced scumread is on me right now and it has none of those things. They're too... I don't wanna say confident but that IS true, there's a better word that not coming to me right now.
He seems to have subverted his process to reach it. Which makes me think he maybe had the conclusion in mind and fit the case to that instead of arriving at it naturally.
I feel like Rhand also knows that if I don't have strong feeling toward a particular plan or strategy that I don't always come down on one side of it, but I know know what Rhand actually KNOWS so this is more of a reason for me instead of a reason overall.
One that stands out that I don’t mind sharing (because it’s obvious in my meta anyways): I do get confident in my early reads because they’re often right.
Also, not every scumread I arrive at is due to my own questioning. I generally focus on one person and move on when I decide that person is the wrong one to push (like Lngr in this game).
But my point is there's no progression. You basically started with a scumread on me with nothing leading up to it. I strongly feel like this isn't your style.
Imagine I'm town though. Are either of Cantrip/ Shadow scum for that? Both? Neither? Why?
I’m literally still at this:
Shadow
Osie
Rhand
Lngr
Anak
Cantrip/KJ
Also, despite everything, there is a possible advantage to lynching today; if KJ is scum, I’m almost certain that town has the despy Role (Or it’s not in the game) which means if we do lynch, and don’t hit scum, it increases the hit percentage of the despy Role...
Huh, if KJ is town, that sort of blows that theory up. Well dang it.
Like I said, you feel fake this game. That's why I started scumreading you.
Cantrip doesn't look too good regardless your alignment.
Shadow is probably town regardless your alignment.
Why are Lngrrr and Anak in that order? They're both kinda the same in terms of activity and content.
Rhand because I wanted to see your reasoning on him. It also had to do with the whole "too much confidence" tell I was mentioning earlier.
Why are both those true? And why regardless of my alignment?
I'm willing to drop the meta read since I'm apparently wrong about it but please explain this.
Towncore -
Osie
Shadow
Rhand
Probably still town -
KJ
At least one of these people is town - Anak/Cantrip/LnGrrrR
If I can remove one of those three, I'm down for a lynch. Either way, I'd be down for no lynch on the mechanical basis.
See 125. I think he's approaching you legitimately unsure of your alignment. There's bits of his posts that ping me as manipulative, but 115 felt real.
Rhand: Ok so I disagree on your Town read of Shadow. I think the way he's pushing me feels more akin to scum letting town drive a lynch.
Very little.
He won't get to sit at town forever if he's too relaxed this game, but I'm comfortable with his early play for the most part.
I also actively would not lynch you, Shadow, or Rhand today, and I think other town feel the same there.
Shadow is closest though for sure.
Shall was "really" I think
Where are Anak and Lngr?
Sorry been a busy couple days, and I'm going to be away with no internet for the weekend, will be back and posting Sunday evening though.
While you're at it, will you publicly confirm what happens if Despy targets GF/framed town/miller? (Does the Despy "see" the actual alignment or the "fake" alignment?)
And is Osie's 107 accurate ("...if the Thief steals from someone who has already used their ability but didn't have their token stolen, and then gets motivated, they can use the scum side of that token.")?
@Shadow:
• Why didn't you vote anyone in RVS?
• Am I wrong in believing that thinking about worst case situations pre-game and bringing them up is well within your scum wheelhouse?
• Per your suggested plan in 15, what's to differentiate between "despy targeted scum and was the NK target" and "despy targeted scum and the NK was successfully doc'd"?
• ...and I apparently didn't read any of your posts after 15? I actually didn't have any questions or concerns with your other posts, which is odd enough that now I'm thinking I need to read your iso. But I've made everyone wait too long already, and I've got other projects to catch up on, so I'll do that next opportunity.
@Rhand:
• Your 14 feels a bit like fearmongering, in that you are proposing a plan of action (No despy shot + no miller claim), identifying a problem with that plan ("we can’t push anyone to claim and then not lynch them"), and then apparently giving up rather than offering alternative solutions.
• Your point that Osie's unlikely to be scum for the miller claim is a good one, and I feel like you're town for it unless specifically scum with Osie.
• Some mindmeld with your thought in 63 that unless we go for narrowed targets with the despy plan, we're letting scum plan around it, but I like Shadow's response to that in the next post.
@Killjoy:
• Something feels off about your 24. I started out thinking it felt bloodthirsty, but that's not quite it.
• Why did you ask Anak how he felt about Shadow in 82 when Anak had just recently indicated awarding slight town points to Shadow in 76?
• As I already mentioned, it's hard for me to wrap my head around a town player not considering the NK.
• I really don't like your question to Shadow in 120 about his order of LnG and Anak. Your addendum of "they're both kinda the same in terms of activity and content" feels like a logical fallacy...strawman, maybe? I feel like LnG has contributed quite a bit more to the conversation than Anak has, and I definitely have a stronger sense of LnG's presence/opinion. I feel like if you flip scum, there's a good chance your buddy is one of the two. The part of that post when you question Rhand on his reads of me and Shadow feels false, as well. Why did you use the phrase "why are those both true"? (specifically the bolded)?
• In 132, when you say that scum!Shadow has "dead town" to gain from letting Rhand push you...how exactly, when we're not lynching toDay?
@Osie:
• You talked quite a lot in 25 about what you didn't lose by claiming miller. What do/did you gain from claiming miller?
• Oh, you expounded in 33. Ok, so less chance you get copped, and you feel confident enough in your ability that if scum don't kill you, you'll be able to figure it out. You do realize that you saying that you haven't much thought about scum equity of such a plan doesn't do anything for us, right? And, especially given your posting restriction choices in Scum Love the King, I don't really see scum!Osie as a "go with the flow" kind of player. The scum equity of such a plan, by the way, is very similar: less chance you get copped, less question as to why you're still alive late game (because the scum are trying to lynch you, obv), less chance of being watched, and greater chance the doc or bodyguard wastes their shots on you.
• In 43 you say "most of the time, [me claiming Miller] helps the town more than it hurts it, it's just risky." Is there more "help" than narrowing cop targets? Why does that outweigh the possibility of an extra scum kill, even if the percentage of scum having a claim vig is small?
• 49: Yes, you should declare a fake Despy target.
• Your 68.....wut? Did you seriously just suggest, even on a very low-level, that my RVS was a chainsaw? The 4th post of the game?
• Re: your 101, I can't help but tinfoil the possibility that you're on the scum team, there's a claim vig, you know the miller/framer card isn't in play (or one of you is the framer), and your 101 is designed to set up a scenario where the claim vig doesn't shoot N1 to "confirm" you/suggest that there's no claim vig, regular NK occurs, single mislynch D2 + NK OR Claim Vig seals the deal.
@LnG:
• Your question to Osie in 30 doesn't make sense. Osie voted Rhand for 14, not for Rhand's vote of you in 4. That said, I'm guessing this was probably a post confusion derp.
• I don't understand why you would suspect Osie of a town gambit only to expose the possibility of that gambit (rather than using Osie's responses to justify a town read on him).
• I like your train of thought in 52. Doesn't sound like the kind of corner case thinking that would come from scum trying to shade Osie. Unless you're specifically scum with Osie and this is a planned gambit (which I think is unlikely), this puts you at townlean for me.
• Your 83 feels very open and townie.
@Anak:
• 56: Why do you hate early T/S lists?
• How do I not have any other questions for you? I apparently need to iso you, too.
• Hmm, actually, what are your thoughts on me and LnG?
Right now I'm at:
Shadow
LnG
Rhand
Osie
Anak
KJ
I'll reassess after I get some responses.
I think this is the only real question for me?
Unless scum think I'm incompetent or an easy mislynch (both of which could be the case, I guess), then I'm the target of a nightkill.
Also, I really would like to know how serious your 68 was.
I am ok with moving forward with the no lynch, but are we going to do the desperado target claim?