@KJ: It didn't change my Tubba read, because I don't have a Tubba read.
So let me put out some of my mafia theory. I think analysis is overhyped. It feels good to go all Sherlock Holmes on someone and figure them out from subtle clues, but I don't actually think it works as well as people like to think. I think a decent player gets analysis right 60% of the time, and an excellent player gets it right maybe 70% of the time. Of course I keep doing it, because it's fun, and because even if I'm only at 60%, that's better than purely random chance. And I'll listen to it in the absence of other things, or in conjunction with them.
But relying on that kind of behavioral analysis to the exclusion of other things doesn't work that well. I think the two actual most powerful techniques are mechanical analysis (e.g. "we have a cop result" or "we have a tracker result" or "we've done PoE on night actions") and scumslips. We have what looks to me like a scumslip. I'm not going to ignore that in favor of behavioral analysis, no matter how good the reasoning looks on paper. Could I be wrong on the EtR team? Yeah, sure. But in that case I'll reevaluate at the time, and there's little point in making a bunch of hypotheticals now.
And this is another thing that I think people overvalue with analysis - it seems like people really want to wait until they are absolutely convinced of their call before they kill the target and end the Day. But that's not what I think is the right play (and seems to be something I'm consistently being either misinterpreted or misrepresented on.) I'm not 100% dead locked into this team; again, I admit the possibility that I am wrong. But I am dead locked into the concept that once there is a solid "breakthrough opportunity" like this, it is a waste of time to do all this debate and rehashing. Just kill the suspect(s), go into Night, and we're either right or we're wrong, and we'll deal with it from there. Not only do I think it's the right thing to do from a town perspective - long days and long games naturally give scum an advantage due to fatigue - but it's just more fun.
tom/lw: can you two explain why you want my flip? I felt like we had a good townblock going early game.
I think so too, but now I'm hedging on you, idk, day ones are just a ***** show for me...
Because of 1 post right?
I mean I know my EtR vote was bad. And I pulled it back when I reflected on it.
Is that really a reason to throw away our block and lynch me rahter than Kami who is spewing bad mafia theory to avoid commenting on anything else or Tubba who makes a T/s without commitments?
The one reason I’m sort of ok with this is that at least it will prove the crazy “EtR believes in a 5 person scum team” theory wrong and you and tom will be left alone.
Welcome Vezok! Your slot is whatever because it was Riku. Have you been reading along already?
This post makes me wonder if scum really has daychat.
I can’t think of any reason other than s/s why Lngr would let the replacement slot know how they stand.
@lngr: why?
Because it's a polite thing to do? I know sometimes when I replace in, I haven't read the thread, so it's good to know whether I need to immediately start defending myself, or I am town read and I can take my time catching up, or whatever.
I haven't read anything at all, but I will roleplay a drunk character.
Can anyone give some bullet points until I finish reading?
Great, so you will be pretending to be Riku.
The biggest bullet point is probably the Tau/EtR shenanigans. Tau and EtR are neighbors, Tau claimed to be separated scum and told etr to post a question with the other scum in it. EtR did something like that, Tau called him out, EtR said he assumed Tau was gambling town and wanted to see what Tau would do.
I haven't read anything at all, but I will roleplay a drunk character.
Can anyone give some bullet points until I finish reading?
Great, so you will be pretending to be Riku.
The biggest bullet point is probably the Tau/EtR shenanigans. Tau and EtR are neighbors, Tau claimed to be separated scum and told etr to post a question with the other scum in it. EtR did something like that, Tau called him out, EtR said he assumed Tau was gambling town and wanted to see what Tau would do.
Oh so it's one of those games. I'll have to read to actually understand how something like this happened.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy. Check out the Shop Thread
Because it's a polite thing to do? I know sometimes when I replace in, I haven't read the thread, so it's good to know whether I need to immediately start defending myself, or I am town read and I can take my time catching up, or whatever.
But that’s not really what happens when you replace in?
No one will ever lynch a replacement before giving them time to catch up unless deadline is looming.
Responding when a replacement asks for stuff (like you did just now) is all fine.
But telling them what their standing is, is weird.
If one of you flips scum, I’m going to auto-scumread the other.
@Rhand, *shrug* Agree to disagree then. Not saying he would be lynched immediately, but generally I like to know how my slot was seen when I replace in.
@Vezok, yeah, it's been the "biggest" thing that's happened so far.
@KJ: It didn't change my Tubba read, because I don't have a Tubba read.
So let me put out some of my mafia theory. I think analysis is overhyped. It feels good to go all Sherlock Holmes on someone and figure them out from subtle clues, but I don't actually think it works as well as people like to think. I think a decent player gets analysis right 60% of the time, and an excellent player gets it right maybe 70% of the time. Of course I keep doing it, because it's fun, and because even if I'm only at 60%, that's better than purely random chance. And I'll listen to it in the absence of other things, or in conjunction with them.
But relying on that kind of behavioral analysis to the exclusion of other things doesn't work that well. I think the two actual most powerful techniques are mechanical analysis (e.g. "we have a cop result" or "we have a tracker result" or "we've done PoE on night actions") and scumslips. We have what looks to me like a scumslip. I'm not going to ignore that in favor of behavioral analysis, no matter how good the reasoning looks on paper. Could I be wrong on the EtR team? Yeah, sure. But in that case I'll reevaluate at the time, and there's little point in making a bunch of hypotheticals now.
And this is another thing that I think people overvalue with analysis - it seems like people really want to wait until they are absolutely convinced of their call before they kill the target and end the Day. But that's not what I think is the right play (and seems to be something I'm consistently being either misinterpreted or misrepresented on.) I'm not 100% dead locked into this team; again, I admit the possibility that I am wrong. But I am dead locked into the concept that once there is a solid "breakthrough opportunity" like this, it is a waste of time to do all this debate and rehashing. Just kill the suspect(s), go into Night, and we're either right or we're wrong, and we'll deal with it from there. Not only do I think it's the right thing to do from a town perspective - long days and long games naturally give scum an advantage due to fatigue - but it's just more fun.
I agree with everything you just said about Mafia theory for the most part here. No behavioral analysis isn't infallible. Yes, mechanical analysis is stronger as a whole because the human brain is a infinitely more complex than any Mafia setup is going to be.
Scumslips are a different animal though. The vast majority of things called a scumslip aren't. And isolating those to the exclusion if behavior has a much higher failure rate than behavior analysis itself. Most legit scumslips come in the backs of mechanics. Maybe scum are losing their ability to justify their night actions given town night actions and so they take a risk and it doesn't pay off.
That appears to be your opinion of the Tau Gambit. EtR took a risk trusting Tau and it burned him. I cannot see how that could have happened given EtR's reaction to it. I'm sorry if my pesky behavioral analysis is getting in the way of your decidedly not doing that but that's a more reliable way to play Mafia. The scumslip isn't the only scummy thing they're gonna do this game. If we don't catch them immediately it's not the end of the world.
You think his reaction is more close to a scum reaction than town, yes? Show that to me. I will not accept "He scumslipped so we need to resolve it now" as an answer. We're not taking the way road here. I actually am starting to think that they might both be town. So prove your view here I wanna see it.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
The way GJ is scum reading me send abrupt and largely unfounded.
GJ: based on what I've claimed, what do you think my role is? Why do you think I'm lying?
How would your answer change if you were actually scum in your world? "Oh shucks, guess you got me?"
As far as your role, I am going to guess mafia cop, maybe a roleblocker?
If you meant what role do I think you are pretending to be, I assumed cop with a n0 check as the only other role that comes to mind that would know another townie's alignment is mason. And I think you'd have an issue with you two existing in this world with Etr/Tau
GJ is scumreading me for being underwhelming and thinking I'm lying about my ability
Just the bolded. The lying about your ability only occurs if I think you are a wolf. If it makes you feel better, I did some thinking and decided it probably means Grape is town whether I am right or wrong, but your interaction and outing did not come from what I would expect a townie to do who is hiding a pr.
2. GJ is jumping to the conclusion that I'm lying without even bothering to grill me to see if I am indeed lying.
I mean, if I am scum reading you, I don't really care what you are claiming. I don't really have a captivated audiance right now, so it won't likely gain traction. How hard you are defending yourself strikes me as odd.
GJ is a player that likes to have full info before drawing such final conclusions. How do I know this? Because not too long ago (maybe it's still a thing, IDK but it certainly used to be) GJ's whole D1 play would be to do mostly nothing while poking at people and drawing very weak conclusions to expand the next day because... wait for it... THERES NOT ENOUGH INFO D1.
1). Meta is trash
2). Your meta read on me is woefully out of date. I don't know what made you think this was a final decision though, considering I didn't even commit a vote on you. Things change. I don't believe you, but I am not stupid enough to try to get the town to force through a lynch on an uncced investigative role. Like, even if I was a wolf, why would I draw that much attention to myself?
So, GJ calling my play underwhelming and scumreading me for it (which, again, can be used to describe a lot of his D1 posts in other games) is bull*****.
Am I not allowed to wolf read people who I deem to not be actively hunting?
then check what scumGJ means for this game. I've also been meaning to check the GF wagon to see who the scum are on it.
I am assuming when you quoted my meta, there are parts of it you don't disagree with. What you are doing right now is absurdly wolfy. Even if you legit think I am a wolf, why would you try to read any amount of interaction I have with people with 0 dead bodies? Even on my short list, I am pretty sure my two wolfiest players aren't w/w. I am just going with independent reads.
Evenetually, someone gets lynched. Whoever the town thinks is subjectively the likelies to flip wolf. As of now, I don't feel confidant that it's you,and even if I did, you put yourself on a clock anyway.
Honestly, the towniest thing I have seen you do is when tom asked you, and you double downed on grape.
@Rhand:
I’m burning up and need to rest.
Can someone explain me why I’m the leading wagon? I know DV had this weird scumread and EtR voted me for my vote on him, but I have no idea why anyone else is voting me.
If I somehow end up getting lynched with GJ early or convinced on my wagon, lynch GJ next please.
How did you make this post, and then remove me out of any of your most recent wolf team?
Lot of posts that might look hedgey, but not sure why you think this is one of them.
I like D_V's argument on Mindreaver. unlike scum D_V, this argument actually makes sense. I'm.. actually getting town vibes from D_V. (I SWEAR TO GOD IF YOU ROLLED SCUM AGAIN IMMA RAGE QUIT MAFIA FOREVER)
Why then, through the rest of your post, do you go on everyone other than Mind?
Grape suggests we kill everyone who thought tubba was scum. A slip? Could be. That comes from a knowledge that tubba is 100% town and i don't like that one bit. cue last's 832 and i feel like that confusion is super fake.
Grape is a package deal right now. Only way you can actually read him wolf is if you think KJ is also a wolf. Even then, bold read to make.
Quote from LnGrrr »
GJ "sic'ing" DV on GF, while also asking who here thinks KJ is town, also feels slimy. GJ himself said he doesn't care about Grape toDay, but says an n0 peek is unlikely.
My entire point of that was making fun of DV calling grape a wolf, but not following up because KJ peek. Jesus. Slimy implies I tried to be sneaky about it, I was pretty blatant in your face.
Rodemy can go up in town block, I didn't like that LnGree much.
Why did you say this if you don't believe it?
go on MU more. I thought it was a tad spicy, and I only disagree because the argument feels a bit bleh.
KJ/tubba aren't w/w together. Bland take.
Rhand has had his towniest page by far here. Apart from the inconsistency I want answered, I like him a little more.
Kami just waltzing in and voting top wagon just looks so bad. Legit wondering if it is twtbaw.
KJ not having an issue with it, especially since he doesn't have Rhand in his shortlist.
PTAP or whatever
Rhand and johnny are people i wouldn't mind swinging. Along with mind and lngrr still.
Kami less so but the new wrinkle where he thinks lynching anyone in the team etr named is just as good is...
Idk does he think etr is exactly town or scum that named his whole team and there's no room in his worldview for scum wifoming somehow?
Bah
This doesn't feel like towntom. Like at all. I am sorry tom, but if you think I am more lynchable than mind or Riku on day 1, you are either a wolf, or flipped your town radar over for lols and are just going blind.
Kami 1154 is a very pretty way of looking busy, without actually hunting, and relying on scumslips. I wish there was a way to track success rate of that, because I would be astonished is people pushed fo slips and ended up going wolf was >25%.
@LastWhisper: 3 lines max, why is LnGrrr your most confidant read?
1. The way he's playing catch up is scummy
2. How he discredited everyone's attack on me early on, was scummy
3. Arguing that because someone else is doing it, that it invalidates their read, this post was mostly why I jumped back on him again, comes off as, "I'm being called out for something, but that's not a good read, because you are also doing that something"
Quote from Grr »
Me: Explaining that people who say something is bad/weird/lulz then doing it them self is suspicious.
Yeah I can't tell if KA thinks flipping Rhand actually resolves the thing or will then retreat to pushing EtR again. I believe he'll do the latter so his recent posts and giant theory post justifying it feels scummy to me.
Yeah I can't tell if KA thinks flipping Rhand actually resolves the thing or will then retreat to pushing EtR again. I believe he'll do the latter so his recent posts and giant theory post justifying it feels scummy to me.
Vote: KA
nah, this dude is always gets shot, or checked, as well as should riku's slot, more so leaning towards a cop check on him, rather than a shot
do not vote kami today, the chance of him being just bad town, is just too damn high, this is coming from the person who tunneled on him in every single game i've played with him in, and him flipping town every single game
1. The way he's playing catch up is scummy
2. How he discredited everyone's attack on me early on, was scummy
3. Arguing that because someone else is doing it, that it invalidates their read, this post was mostly why I jumped back on him again, comes off as, "I'm being called out for something, but that's not a good read, because you are also doing that something"
Quote from Grr »
Me: Explaining that people who say something is bad/weird/lulz then doing it them self is suspicious.
Number 3 in particular, good variation of a CFTWR tell. His oddball white knighting, as Rod called it felt irritating.
I think I am something like
VV
Me
LW
DW
Rodemy
V
Tau
Grape*
Null
Vaimes
KJ*
Vezok/Riku
Rhand
W
tom
EtR
Lngrr
WW
tubba
mind
Rhand I keep moving up and down. He has good posts and bad. I would prefer not to deal with him tonight.
My only spicy read is tom, and I am still working the mechanics out on that, apart from meta reasons. I just haven't felt the rush of the hunt out of him, or the fun. He is treating this game like a business, and seems relatively apathetic to who gets lynched. I just don't get his view of this game, compared to what town should be seeing.
Part of me is worried that it feels like we (in general) have a ton of concensus reads, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. I am tabling KJ/grape as I said. They are another day. Only null I would consider is Rhand.
Otherwise, yeah. Had to reference opening post for a few players, but this is what I am staring at. I find my lack of town reads disturbing, but not sure what else I am looking for.
Yeah I can't tell if KA thinks flipping Rhand actually resolves the thing or will then retreat to pushing EtR again. I believe he'll do the latter so his recent posts and giant theory post justifying it feels scummy to me.
Vote: KA
nah, this dude is always gets shot, or checked, as well as should riku's slot, more so leaning towards a cop check on him, rather than a shot
do not vote kami today, the chance of him being just bad town, is just too damn high, this is coming from the person who tunneled on him in every single game i've played with him in, and him flipping town every single game
I would rather you vote Grr, please?
Meh, I am getting tired of moving problems to be "next game's problem". You get people to change by lynching them over and over. If Riku's 3 day posts were actual posts instead of just ***** posts, I would like that slot alot more. In Kami's case, I'd just settle for non mechanic/theory analysis that is actually about the game.
Also, hosts. Make sure these games have more vigs, please. If there was a vig every game, I would never be sad, regardless of my alignment.
can you walk me through why mind is WW, or point me to a post where you stated why is was scum, if you already wrote one?
I wasn't super impressed with his iso, and would pretty much barn DV's thing. I don't feel like he is trying to solve, and hasn't really done anything apart from respond to that back and forth between him and DV. I just get this feeling he is struggling to post. I also don't like a lot of his feel coming off his posts, like his list:
I was reading your breadcrumbs early, and I actually thought you were going to counterclaim the neighbors
Like, could you find a more pockety post than this one? Actually, as annoying as it is, probably points to KJ town in wolf Mind world.
Even if you look at this list, his yellows are all pretty spicy, but his 1 red is kami, which is a relatively easy read to make.
GJ how much do you think agreement in reads are bad?
For example in playstation(Before I got replaced) the town had a decent agreement of T/S reads. Most of the scum reads were correct.
Thoughts?
On a scale of 1-5 (5 being danger, 1 being great for town), probably a 2? From what I have seen, it usually means there is probably a wolf in town reads, but honestly, there is no reason to think about it. And there isn't a ton of agreement, and some fighting in the middle, so probably closer to a 1.
But what makes me concerned is wolves at full power I feel would try to fight town cores from being created. Because otherwise, it creates issues for reducing mislynches.
In Playstation, I would argue is was more diverse. Yes, some wolves were content, but tom/kpaca I would argue were both deep in a lot of cases. Same town reads, with varying wolf reads is where I would be more concerned.
But that’s not really what happens when you replace in?
No one will ever lynch a replacement before giving them time to catch up unless deadline is looming.
Responding when a replacement asks for stuff (like you did just now) is all fine.
But telling them what their standing is, is weird.
If one of you flips scum, I’m going to auto-scumread the other.
@Wisp there is about a 2% chance this game has a cop. It's a Bur/Shadow joint. I will be shocked if there is a hard investigation.
But more importantly I think KA is scummier than LnG (who is more absent than anything) and I don't see a difference between leaving various consensus scum reads to be sorted by power.
As for your earlier question about an RB and why I don't want to have to think about you I assume there is a scum RB in every game and I hope we kill them so you self resolve.
I don't know why people are giving Kami so much *****. I think he's right, at least about town talking itself in circles with everyone trying to be the most correct person in the room. We've cycled through like, three or four major wagons, and people just wanna keep going up and down like a demented seesaw.
As long as a lynch lands on EtR, Rhand, or LnGR, I'm good. At this point I don't care about anything else. I'm a little concerned about Tau now, but it's not something I want to pursue without a flip elsewhere.
@Wisp there is about a 2% chance this game has a cop. It's a Bur/Shadow joint. I will be shocked if there is a hard investigation.
But more importantly I think KA is scummier than LnG (who is more absent than anything) and I don't see a difference between leaving various consensus scum reads to be sorted by power.
As for your earlier question about an RB and why I don't want to have to think about you I assume there is a scum RB in every game and I hope we kill them so you self resolve.
Where is Gan_Dan when you need him? That guy is how you make catchup posts as a townie.
I don't know why people are giving Kami so much *****. I think he's right, at least about town talking itself in circles with everyone trying to be the most correct person in the room. We've cycled through like, three or four major wagons, and people just wanna keep going up and down like a demented seesaw.
As long as a lynch lands on EtR, Rhand, or LnGR, I'm good. At this point I don't care about anything else. I'm a little concerned about Tau now, but it's not something I want to pursue without a flip elsewhere.
Doesn't seem interested in hunting wolves, just feels like he is here, but doing.....what exactly?
I don't know why people are giving Kami so much *****. I think he's right, at least about town talking itself in circles with everyone trying to be the most correct person in the room. We've cycled through like, three or four major wagons, and people just wanna keep going up and down like a demented seesaw.
As long as a lynch lands on EtR, Rhand, or LnGR, I'm good. At this point I don't care about anything else. I'm a little concerned about Tau now, but it's not something I want to pursue without a flip elsewhere.
first you are doing exactly what grr was doing, and second, "Oh, so the Riku slot is town. Thanks, Rhand.", is such a scummy comment to his post
shade, shade, shade, Rhand actually made a handful of decent posts, go read them and don't be obnoxious
@Wisp there is about a 2% chance this game has a cop. It's a Bur/Shadow joint. I will be shocked if there is a hard investigation.
But more importantly I think KA is scummier than LnG (who is more absent than anything) and I don't see a difference between leaving various consensus scum reads to be sorted by power.
As for your earlier question about an RB and why I don't want to have to think about you I assume there is a scum RB in every game and I hope we kill them so you self resolve.
i mean if im scum here, then I just claim I was roleblocked? so how does that self resolve? and I agree hard cops are rough, hopefully a watcher/tracker, idk?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
So let me put out some of my mafia theory. I think analysis is overhyped. It feels good to go all Sherlock Holmes on someone and figure them out from subtle clues, but I don't actually think it works as well as people like to think. I think a decent player gets analysis right 60% of the time, and an excellent player gets it right maybe 70% of the time. Of course I keep doing it, because it's fun, and because even if I'm only at 60%, that's better than purely random chance. And I'll listen to it in the absence of other things, or in conjunction with them.
But relying on that kind of behavioral analysis to the exclusion of other things doesn't work that well. I think the two actual most powerful techniques are mechanical analysis (e.g. "we have a cop result" or "we have a tracker result" or "we've done PoE on night actions") and scumslips. We have what looks to me like a scumslip. I'm not going to ignore that in favor of behavioral analysis, no matter how good the reasoning looks on paper. Could I be wrong on the EtR team? Yeah, sure. But in that case I'll reevaluate at the time, and there's little point in making a bunch of hypotheticals now.
And this is another thing that I think people overvalue with analysis - it seems like people really want to wait until they are absolutely convinced of their call before they kill the target and end the Day. But that's not what I think is the right play (and seems to be something I'm consistently being either misinterpreted or misrepresented on.) I'm not 100% dead locked into this team; again, I admit the possibility that I am wrong. But I am dead locked into the concept that once there is a solid "breakthrough opportunity" like this, it is a waste of time to do all this debate and rehashing. Just kill the suspect(s), go into Night, and we're either right or we're wrong, and we'll deal with it from there. Not only do I think it's the right thing to do from a town perspective - long days and long games naturally give scum an advantage due to fatigue - but it's just more fun.
Rhand (6): EtR, Grapefruit21, Lastwhisper, D_V, Vaimes, KamikazeArchon
EtR (2): M1ndreaver, Tubba Fett
KamikazeArchon (2): Rhand, LnGrrrR
M1ndreaver (1): tomsloger
Killjoy (1): Rumanshi
Gentleman Johnny (1): Killjoy
LnGrrrR (1): Rodemy
Not Voting (2): Reaverb Tau, Gentleman Johnny
V/LA: KamikazeArchon (March 8th - 10th)
With 16 alive, it’s 9 to lynch. Deadline is on March 8th.
Thinking like that, is how you lose games
Because of 1 post right?
I mean I know my EtR vote was bad. And I pulled it back when I reflected on it.
Is that really a reason to throw away our block and lynch me rahter than Kami who is spewing bad mafia theory to avoid commenting on anything else or Tubba who makes a T/s without commitments?
The one reason I’m sort of ok with this is that at least it will prove the crazy “EtR believes in a 5 person scum team” theory wrong and you and tom will be left alone.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Can anyone give some bullet points until I finish reading?
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Check out the Shop Thread
This post makes me wonder if scum really has daychat.
I can’t think of any reason other than s/s why Lngr would let the replacement slot know how they stand.
@lngr: why?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Great, so you will be pretending to be Riku.
The biggest bullet point is probably the Tau/EtR shenanigans. Tau and EtR are neighbors, Tau claimed to be separated scum and told etr to post a question with the other scum in it. EtR did something like that, Tau called him out, EtR said he assumed Tau was gambling town and wanted to see what Tau would do.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Oh so it's one of those games. I'll have to read to actually understand how something like this happened.
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
But that’s not really what happens when you replace in?
No one will ever lynch a replacement before giving them time to catch up unless deadline is looming.
Responding when a replacement asks for stuff (like you did just now) is all fine.
But telling them what their standing is, is weird.
If one of you flips scum, I’m going to auto-scumread the other.
@Vezok, yeah, it's been the "biggest" thing that's happened so far.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Im still most confident about this slot, out of everyone else
I think you could still go both ways, and its not only because of the vote on ETR, if that was the only reason
I thought it was the only reason. Apart from DV’s weird case I haven’t seen any reason why anyone scumreads me apart from “he had some scummy posts”.
On playing a drunk character, read Four Horseman of the Apocolypse Mafia. Take a look at this sweet dude named Rodemy. He did the same thing <4
Scumslips are a different animal though. The vast majority of things called a scumslip aren't. And isolating those to the exclusion if behavior has a much higher failure rate than behavior analysis itself. Most legit scumslips come in the backs of mechanics. Maybe scum are losing their ability to justify their night actions given town night actions and so they take a risk and it doesn't pay off.
That appears to be your opinion of the Tau Gambit. EtR took a risk trusting Tau and it burned him. I cannot see how that could have happened given EtR's reaction to it. I'm sorry if my pesky behavioral analysis is getting in the way of your decidedly not doing that but that's a more reliable way to play Mafia. The scumslip isn't the only scummy thing they're gonna do this game. If we don't catch them immediately it's not the end of the world.
You think his reaction is more close to a scum reaction than town, yes? Show that to me. I will not accept "He scumslipped so we need to resolve it now" as an answer. We're not taking the way road here. I actually am starting to think that they might both be town. So prove your view here I wanna see it.
ill argue that mechanical analysis has its flaws too, but that depends on context
How would your answer change if you were actually scum in your world? "Oh shucks, guess you got me?"
As far as your role, I am going to guess mafia cop, maybe a roleblocker?
If you meant what role do I think you are pretending to be, I assumed cop with a n0 check as the only other role that comes to mind that would know another townie's alignment is mason. And I think you'd have an issue with you two existing in this world with Etr/Tau
Just the bolded. The lying about your ability only occurs if I think you are a wolf. If it makes you feel better, I did some thinking and decided it probably means Grape is town whether I am right or wrong, but your interaction and outing did not come from what I would expect a townie to do who is hiding a pr.
I mean, if I am scum reading you, I don't really care what you are claiming. I don't really have a captivated audiance right now, so it won't likely gain traction. How hard you are defending yourself strikes me as odd.
1). Meta is trash
2). Your meta read on me is woefully out of date. I don't know what made you think this was a final decision though, considering I didn't even commit a vote on you. Things change. I don't believe you, but I am not stupid enough to try to get the town to force through a lynch on an uncced investigative role. Like, even if I was a wolf, why would I draw that much attention to myself?
Am I not allowed to wolf read people who I deem to not be actively hunting?
I am assuming when you quoted my meta, there are parts of it you don't disagree with. What you are doing right now is absurdly wolfy. Even if you legit think I am a wolf, why would you try to read any amount of interaction I have with people with 0 dead bodies? Even on my short list, I am pretty sure my two wolfiest players aren't w/w. I am just going with independent reads.
Evenetually, someone gets lynched. Whoever the town thinks is subjectively the likelies to flip wolf. As of now, I don't feel confidant that it's you,and even if I did, you put yourself on a clock anyway.
Honestly, the towniest thing I have seen you do is when tom asked you, and you double downed on grape.
@Rhand:
How did you make this post, and then remove me out of any of your most recent wolf team?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Lot of posts that might look hedgey, but not sure why you think this is one of them.
Why then, through the rest of your post, do you go on everyone other than Mind?
Grape is a package deal right now. Only way you can actually read him wolf is if you think KJ is also a wolf. Even then, bold read to make.
My entire point of that was making fun of DV calling grape a wolf, but not following up because KJ peek. Jesus. Slimy implies I tried to be sneaky about it, I was pretty blatant in your face.
Rodemy can go up in town block, I didn't like that LnGree much.
go on MU more. I thought it was a tad spicy, and I only disagree because the argument feels a bit bleh.
KJ/tubba aren't w/w together. Bland take.
Rhand has had his towniest page by far here. Apart from the inconsistency I want answered, I like him a little more.
Kami just waltzing in and voting top wagon just looks so bad. Legit wondering if it is twtbaw.
KJ not having an issue with it, especially since he doesn't have Rhand in his shortlist.
This doesn't feel like towntom. Like at all. I am sorry tom, but if you think I am more lynchable than mind or Riku on day 1, you are either a wolf, or flipped your town radar over for lols and are just going blind.
Kami 1154 is a very pretty way of looking busy, without actually hunting, and relying on scumslips. I wish there was a way to track success rate of that, because I would be astonished is people pushed fo slips and ended up going wolf was >25%.
@LastWhisper: 3 lines max, why is LnGrrr your most confidant read?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Gitgud, casuals.
#*****posts
The GJ way path to no lynching:
1. The way he's playing catch up is scummy
2. How he discredited everyone's attack on me early on, was scummy
3. Arguing that because someone else is doing it, that it invalidates their read, this post was mostly why I jumped back on him again, comes off as, "I'm being called out for something, but that's not a good read, because you are also doing that something"
Vote: KA
do not vote kami today, the chance of him being just bad town, is just too damn high, this is coming from the person who tunneled on him in every single game i've played with him in, and him flipping town every single game
I would rather you vote Grr, please?
Number 3 in particular, good variation of a CFTWR tell. His oddball white knighting, as Rod called it felt irritating.
I think I am something like
VV
Me
LW
DW
Rodemy
V
Tau
Grape*
Null
Vaimes
KJ*
Vezok/Riku
Rhand
W
tom
EtR
Lngrr
WW
tubba
mind
Rhand I keep moving up and down. He has good posts and bad. I would prefer not to deal with him tonight.
My only spicy read is tom, and I am still working the mechanics out on that, apart from meta reasons. I just haven't felt the rush of the hunt out of him, or the fun. He is treating this game like a business, and seems relatively apathetic to who gets lynched. I just don't get his view of this game, compared to what town should be seeing.
Part of me is worried that it feels like we (in general) have a ton of concensus reads, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. I am tabling KJ/grape as I said. They are another day. Only null I would consider is Rhand.
Otherwise, yeah. Had to reference opening post for a few players, but this is what I am staring at. I find my lack of town reads disturbing, but not sure what else I am looking for.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Meh, I am getting tired of moving problems to be "next game's problem". You get people to change by lynching them over and over. If Riku's 3 day posts were actual posts instead of just ***** posts, I would like that slot alot more. In Kami's case, I'd just settle for non mechanic/theory analysis that is actually about the game.
Also, hosts. Make sure these games have more vigs, please. If there was a vig every game, I would never be sad, regardless of my alignment.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Vote LnGrrrr
The GJ way path to no lynching:
can you walk me through why mind is WW, or point me to a post where you stated why is was scum, if you already wrote one?
I wasn't super impressed with his iso, and would pretty much barn DV's thing. I don't feel like he is trying to solve, and hasn't really done anything apart from respond to that back and forth between him and DV. I just get this feeling he is struggling to post. I also don't like a lot of his feel coming off his posts, like his list:
Like, could you find a more pockety post than this one? Actually, as annoying as it is, probably points to KJ town in wolf Mind world.
Even if you look at this list, his yellows are all pretty spicy, but his 1 red is kami, which is a relatively easy read to make.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
For example in playstation(Before I got replaced) the town had a decent agreement of T/S reads. Most of the scum reads were correct.
Thoughts?
On a scale of 1-5 (5 being danger, 1 being great for town), probably a 2? From what I have seen, it usually means there is probably a wolf in town reads, but honestly, there is no reason to think about it. And there isn't a ton of agreement, and some fighting in the middle, so probably closer to a 1.
But what makes me concerned is wolves at full power I feel would try to fight town cores from being created. Because otherwise, it creates issues for reducing mislynches.
In Playstation, I would argue is was more diverse. Yes, some wolves were content, but tom/kpaca I would argue were both deep in a lot of cases. Same town reads, with varying wolf reads is where I would be more concerned.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
But more importantly I think KA is scummier than LnG (who is more absent than anything) and I don't see a difference between leaving various consensus scum reads to be sorted by power.
As for your earlier question about an RB and why I don't want to have to think about you I assume there is a scum RB in every game and I hope we kill them so you self resolve.
As long as a lynch lands on EtR, Rhand, or LnGR, I'm good. At this point I don't care about anything else. I'm a little concerned about Tau now, but it's not something I want to pursue without a flip elsewhere.
Where is Gan_Dan when you need him? That guy is how you make catchup posts as a townie.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Doesn't seem interested in hunting wolves, just feels like he is here, but doing.....what exactly?
Tbf, you only feel slightly more here than Kami.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
If you're talking about me, addressing me directly and also in the third person in the same post makes it harder to understand.
shade, shade, shade, Rhand actually made a handful of decent posts, go read them and don't be obnoxious