Ok, rereading now. I've been pretty out of it the last... well, week with the flu, but the past two days I've been crashing at 8 PM. Since I'm awake now at 3:30 AM (yay coughing), I figured I might as well try to reread one last time and throw thoughts in here.
With regards to the setup Cantrip, I think it definitely is town sided, even if the last scum has something rolecop-y. I think the mod/reviewers underestimated the strength of the VT cop, overestimated the drawback of the town having no real protective roles, or overestimated GJ's bonus coin. Or all three really. But I can at least see the train of thought - with no doc/BG/jailer/etc then there's a very real chance the town's 3 power roles just get mown down without achieving much, but the possibility of that doesn't balance the investigative strength. I wouldn't take GJ at face value, but his anger is likely based in a very real belief that the scum team is underpowered.
Tension was past the breaking point. Nerves were frayed, tempers short, and the cabin fever was real. Normally pristene safe houses were musty, cluttered, and stank of days old food. Fear and distrust had sunk in and handlers had been cut off. Fear can be a very isolating experience.
LnGrrrR (2): Vaimes, Eco
Not voting (3): Cantripmancer, Highroller, LnGrrrR
Please don't play to the minimum posting requirements.
Can you walk us through your mindset when tomsloger counterclaimed vezok and your not voting vezok?
Well my initial response wasn't super enthusiastic because at the time Tom was my top scum read, but the soft counter claim was a) not likely a play scum Tom would have made, and b) I knew that I gave Cheesecake the Watch shot and potentially had more up my sleeve, which meant that one of the investigative claims was probably a lie. I also lost a bit of the plot and thought the situation had a Riku vs Vezok angle, until I managed to work out that Vezok telling the truth would have cleared Riku as well. By the time I was comfortable enough with Vezok being the scum, he had a lot of votes and I didn't want to put him in self hammer range and end the day prematurely. GJ clearly was keen to get his buddy dead before Vezok could spew so he put the vote down instead.
Quote from HR »
Can you walk us through your mindset for being skeptical when Riku claimed to have roleblocked GJ and not voting for GJ?
I didn't remember expressing scepticism, so I looked back. It turns out I was sceptical in #1206 - but about GJ's claim. I was perhaps giving him more credit than he deserved by trying to think through what his claim being true would have meant, but it was imaginative enough to be worth a momentary pause. I did actually think that LnG's vote in #1232 was the L-1 vote so I tried to hammer for a coin, but it turns out I'm bad at counting. If I'd have known he was already at L-1 I'd have dropped it earlier to cut off the self hammer - or at least asked for someone to unvote.
I hope you're feeling better, LnG. Have you had any chance to compile final thoughts? As much as I want to continue sifting to see if I can find something strongly indicative, we're nearing deadline and I'm wondering if I should just place the final vote and hope you're scum.
So, in the context of this attack, in order of scumminess, Cheesecake, Rhand, Vaimes.
OK, so in the context of your read list that you posted earlier, you would essentially be moving Cheesecake down, Rhand stays fairly close to the bottom, and Vaimes might stay roughly where he is in quite a middling position. Is that a fair assessment?
Could you then please explain if you are still happy with your vote on GJ?
He gets in here, claimed his flavor, and then says “oh no, I guess because the flavor is made up that won’t work,” and then drops it entirely. For real? He doesn’t even try and get something going, he doesn’t even speculate on anything, or even bring up mass claim and his reasons why.
Pretty sure he rolled scum and doesn’t actually want to push that angle.
I am very underwhelmed with this line of attack. I get the point, but it seems pretty tenuous to chase a low-poster because they didn't call for a mass claim after a single data point in a game where they directly benefitted from the mass claim by it turning on their role. I also think that a Shadow who was genuninely interested in solving would have saved the vote (or at least, the explanation of the vote) until HR had actually posted content to better inform the read. Instead, Shadow's put HR completely on the defensive and is acting like HR's defensiveness and lack of content in the face of accusations is some sort of slam dunk tell.
I was going to ask Cantrip why he hadn't moved his vote after his previous reads list, but I ate dinner and he sniped me.
Ecophagy, what were your thoughts on GJ at this point?
Vaimes seems fine to me so far. He's avoided both the Vaimes scum tells of bottom posting and breaking down in tears, and he's had some thoughts that I agree with.
I would be careful with that. He isn't that high of a poster, and it could be he is surrounded by more heavier posters.
The interesting thing I find about GJ is that we know he does a lot of throwing vezokpiraka, his fellow teammate, under the bus. Now, GJ makes a quite a few posts disparaging both Vaimes and Eco in the same post, but I think he tries to cast aspersions on Vaimes more.
I couldn't acutally come up with an answer immediately, so I've tried to organise my thoughts a bit.
Basically, I think LnGrrR is my strongest town read at the moment. His play hasn't been amazingly pro town (singling out the fishing and I don't think he has used/is using his vote very productively). Despite that though, I think his has been very open in his thoughts and explanations, and he hasn't dropped off at a point where he could have as his wagon dissipated. Coupled with the fact that I really think his not pro-town actions were too obvious to be preformed by mafia and I didn't really like anyone who voted for him, I have a well grounded read here.
Beyond that, my list has Cheesecake/Vaimes/tomsloger at about the same level. Vaimes I already mentioned seems to be doing town-Vaimes things and not scum-Vaimes things. Cheesecake is also playing in a townie manner - lots of thoughts and commitments to reads, keen to engage with people, and attacks that have been made seem measured rather than exaggerated (i.e. scum reading/suspecting players who could easily be enthusitically voted for like Tom and HR). I'm prepared to respect that this might all be well within Cheesecake's scum range, but they seem pretty clearly to be a useful person for generating content regardless of alignment, so I'm happy with them for now. Tom is basically that I don't think his gimmick is as bad/obfsucating as it could be (despite it being annoying) and I think he has so far made a reasonable effort to not be deliberately ambiguous (which would be a big red flag). I also have similar thoughts to him (esepcially RE: Shadow), and although I think he's over-zealous RE: Rhand (which can be attributed to excitement), I think he makes a decent point about Rhand's reaction to Tom and Tom's gimmick.
So there's 4 town reads because I'm not that rock solid on most of them. I just have a bucket of fairly town players. For the record, the middle reads are a bit of a soup - I think Vezok is town but needs to produce more analysis and interaction to maintain it; Cantrip is townish because I think his disproportionately confident attacks/snark can be contributed to mania over bloodthirst, and (despite what Vaimes thinks) I'm not sure that Shadow and Cantrip can be w/w. Rumanashi I had hopes for at least a reasonable game when he first posted things that looked like normal posts, but if he's going to slide back into deliberately irritating one-liners that don't contribute then I'm going to just ignore him and hope we have a vig shot. GJ I've not been overly impressed with because he's been reticent with his vote, and I think some of his questions have been asked to ask them rather than to get the answers (like repeatedly "who are the wolves?"). But I'm also not sure an actual wolf would go for the strategy of "I have too many town reads let's lynch the person who hasn't posted". HR is null-to-getting-worse the longer he keeps writing walls in his own defence instead of actually making reads, voting, or trying to solve the game.
also, eco, if you had a gun with 3 bullets and you had to fire them one after the other with no flips happening, who would you shoot to hit at least 2 wolves? associative logic being used is reasonable in that case
I think I'd shoot Shadow + Rhand. Shadow I've already explained (plus now instead of arguing against my points he's asking everyone to justify their read on me an a discrediting attempt), and I think Rhand makes a reasonable buddy for Shadow. I don't really have an independent scum on Rhand mind, which is why I asked for meta, although I think at the very least his reaction to Tom is +scum. For a third person I guess I'd probably shoot Riku? As I mentioned above he's not got any real points either way but as a low poster and minimal contributer he's >rand scum, and he did make both Shadow's and Rhand's early town lists for weak reasons which is fairly indicative of buddies (especially if Rhand or Shadow isn't mafia). If all three are town then I hang up my gun and start by looking at Cantrip/Tom.
I wanted this post noted for future scrutiny, Eco's town and mafia reads.
So I went back over Shadow's ISO to try and re-centre my read. There are some towny points that I'd sort of glossed over in my petty sniping, but I think they are outweighed by a number of niggles and his attitidue towards wagons he's voted on.
I actually think Shadow's initial reason for voting HighRoller was pretty good (#381) - the lack of push for any kind of claim was a decent place to start, and obviously HighRoller hadn't been posting much so voting for pressure as well is fine. I wasn't a huge fan of him not waiting for more posts to reveal his reasoning, but I think in retrospect it didn't actually matter: the reasoning was sound enough already. The early VT claim is another positive point - it's not something scum Shadow would want to tie himself into, but it's a pretty cheap way to score points since the claim was actually totally unnecessary.
Smaller flags occurred during the early game which I have covered before, but I think town Shadow would be more keen to join the early Eco wagon (#8) immediately after voting Cheesecake, whereas scum Shadow is fine sticking to his preplanned vote. I think #68 is very overconfident on these early town reads, and given how they fit popular opinion that was developing at the time, the post looks like an effort to cash in on some town points by making early, strong town read. I don't think we really got much explanation for them either (Riku was posting, GJ was some sort of unexplained tell, Rhand was ?, Cheesecake was ?). I think #312 was a very stilted thing to say to people he was already reading strongly as town (since it comes with an implicit "maybe you guys will town read me now too")
I also think his handling of votes/wagons has been scummy. Voting LnGrrR in #78 for being "awkward" was frankly a rubbish reason, and it looks for all the world like someone who wanted to follow Cantrip onto a LnGrrR wagon, but felt he needed his own reason so just voted off LnGrrR's next post. In #382 he even drops LnGrrR back to null from scum after reading page 1 (with no specifics), which appears to be a way to reverse an unpopular read for a very contrived reason. While I think his initial vote on HR was fine, he's been very happy to hang on to it despite acknowledging a very real likelihood of confirmation bias (#595) with no attempts at objectivity. He's also been very happy to dedicate effort to sparring with HR despite admitting that he would basically never change his mind (#498), rather than other producitve things.
Overall, on top of a few pings, I think Shadow has displayed the key scum indicator of seeking players he thinks he can get lynched, joining the LnGrrR for a contrived reason and continuing to push the HR wagon - intially started reasonably - without reflection or development.
I don't really want to jump straight to believing a counter claim from the person I'm currently voting, but I do agree that a coinless Tracker + whatever Tom claims to be + an alignment cop + Cheesecake's Watch shot is really too much investigative power for a Mini. I'm not really sure why Tom as scum would counterclaim here and sacrifice himself for Vezok. I'm also not really sure why Vezok as scum would have investigated Riku as town when he could have, say, claimed to have investigated his top-scum-read Cheesecake.
Ecophagy not voting Vezok after tomsloger counterclaimed him is interesting, but I’m not sure what it says.
Right now I continue to lean towards voting Vaimes if LnGrrrR turns out to be town. This is mostly for future notation.
I have nothing else to add to this day that I can think of. I'm ok with ending day unless anyone has any closing remarks to add.
Ecophagy, what were your thoughts on GJ at this point?
I don't really remember, but I do remember spending the early game not really understanding why GJ was so widely read as town and disliking his reluctance to vote. But I never really dug into it because I was focussing on Shadow (oops).
Because I figure it is smarter to see what gift gives out tomorrow, as it will give a bit more info tomorrow than toDay, plus I think I get mislynched tomorrow going against you or eco, whereas neither of you is an auto mislynch tomorrow.
LnGrrrR has been killed. He was Appiah Nzema Rich Vanilla Town
You begin the game with 1 coin in your possession.
No one ever realizes how many spies there are in Africa, which does make your job easier. And on a massive continent with hugely varied languages, cultures, and environments you'll take whatever help you can get.
Harold wanted nothing more than to go to the casino, get sloshed, lose some tax payer money, and forget all about the past two weeks. His suits all had mothballs and his normally pristine flat was rank. And worst of all he was down to his last bottle of vodka.
He hadn't heard from anyone in days and the last time he stepped outside was at least a week ago. He had cleaned his pistol so many times that he'd shaved 2 seconds off his already stellar personal best. The normally organized target board looked more like a conspiracy theorists fever dream than his tidy handiwork.
"I need a drink." he thought as his phone's 5:30 alarm rang. It had been another sleepless night. Harold broke the seal on the bottle and took a deep swig straight from the neck and felt fire spread down his throat. His eyes started watering and he fell to his knees clawing at his neck.
Cantripmancer has been killed he was Harold Baines Rich Vanilla Town
You begin the game with 1 coin in your possession.
Bond movies are the bane of your existence... Somehow the idea of a handsome British man in a suit screams spy to everyone. You've had your cover blown more times than you can count due to people saying "Are you a spy? You are like a real life James Bond!" Sure you drink martini's. And you like baccarat. Not every Englishman who does is a spy. Well recently you've realized that you can be a lot more effective if you just speak in a Canadian Accent, which you've learned to do perfectly. No one ever suspects a handsome Canadian.
It is now day 6. With 3 alive 2 is a majority. Deadline is March 15th at 7pm EST. Please do not play to the minimum requirements. Good luck!
Okay, so. This is my favorite horn to toot, even if it is incredibly self-deprecating.
My scumgame is notoriously awful. Like pitiful. You can see it from miles away. Scum!Vaimes almost never endgames (and I say almost because I endgamed and won within the last several months, maybe longer. See the *exceptions paragraph below.)
The tl;dr is that in my most recent scumgame, which happened in December, tom caught me Day 1. In this game, I was tom's top non-checked townread, even despite my big push on him before he died. He didn't check me because when tom doubts my alignment, he lynches me. And it's pretty questionable to assert that I magically go from sucky scum to masterfully endgaming scum in three months (= one MTGS game) not having rolled scum at all in between.
*Exceptions: I tend to perform really well as scum when my teammates are super invested and we blow up scumchat with fluff posts. With how quickly vezok and GJ bit it, there's no universe where I 1) maintain a strong thread presence, or 2) push tom when scum!me knows he's telling the truth, is very capable of catching me, and there's literally nothing stopping me from shooting him.
I think this is all I can really do: show why I'm town, rather than why Eco is scum. Because tbh, I think Highroller has been leagues scummier this game than Eco, and in any other world where tom didn't check him, I'd have snapvoted him immediately.
A roleblocker/tracker, a likely protective role, and apparently a ******* inventor who gives track shots against two goons with a singleton roleblocker, plus whatever tom is claiming to be. Our only ******* power role, who proceeded to do **** all until vezok came, and then just drew a bunch of suspicion). Oh, and he can't even muster the emotion to rage like he does every game EVEN when he had a legit excuse to chew tom out because of WHAT ******* HAPPENED TO HIM THE LAST TIME HE WAS PUSHED AS AN INVESTIGATIVE CLAIM. IT WOULDNT HAVE EVEN BEEN THAT HARD TO FAKE. I just had to hint it 5000 times because in addition to having ***** for power, WE DONT EVEN HAVE DAY CHAT. What a bunch of *****.
I have never seen such a blatantly unbalanced game in my life, since that one ******* mini that was secretly multiball with one of the wolf teams having a double voter and that's just from the roles I know are out there. Probably at least one more role or two out there because what the **** is the point of giving coins on lynch with a competitive nature of who gets what coins and who is a power role. Oh, and because Riku takes a 1-9 shot, I get ******* outed when I probably could have mustered a mislynch or 2 before getting caught (but whatever, because I probably don't live past day 3 anyway since every single game I have been town, I get shot night 1, even if my reads are completely ******* off).
W.e, sorry wolfbuddy. gl trying to wade through all this garbage.
It's a bluff, but is it a bluff or a double-bluff?
Vote Vaimes. I don't really have anything in the way of a case, but at least Vaimes being confirmed as the last scum explains why GJ was distancing so enthusiastically but never actually pushed him. He's clearly come into toDay with a Plan, although I have to say "I'm too bad at scum to be scum here" is a very weak line to take.
Grapefruit is refusing to answer if scum can kill and use an ability either way, which is unfortunate because if he did I could have been cleared by now.