Well I already claimed. However, one of our potential suspects is implying he’s holding info (Az), which unfortunately means he should claim late at the same time gives him more info to craft his claim if he’s scum. I really think whoever is holding potentially incriminating evidence should have claimed already making the mass claim a bit less attractive. I do have an idea though. Can whoever is land claim?
Just whether or not you're land, not a full claim at this point.
I'll massclaim at this point, absolutely. There's no way 1 mafioso can take anywhere near the advantage of it that 8 townsfolk can. I'll even go first if so desired.
My read on Vez is that he's kinda just coasting effort-wise since he's being universally townread. Could be improved, but I'm not lynching him anytime soon.
[WIFOM]@Iso
I shouldn't be lynched because I, outside of V/LA periods, have been productive and as active as I normally am as either alignment. Beyond that, I haven't heard a real case presented against me besides the age-old "mafia are more likely to be in lurkers," which I agree with. But it needs to be contextual. Since returning, for better or for worse, this is my baseline activity level.
I don't think my interactions with either of Grapefruit/Bur are particularly AI, and I'd say my interactions/read with/by Cantrip would be points in my favor. Beyond that, I don't have a great reason to be kept alive. My role is confirmable with help, but not overly powerful, and I certainly wouldn't be more helpful than some of the other present players in creating cases. As time moves on, I'd think I can help with behavioral analysis fairly well.[/WIFOM]
@Highroller I think your argument against Terry fails Occam's Razor. Make the town expend the lynch, kill a potential investigative role.
@Vez What makes you think theorycrafting is AI, and in a good way re: Axel? Why do you think I'm the most likely mafia?
**** it, let’s massclaim. I want dan, vezok, Az, and Axelrod to be the first four to claim, followed by KA, and then I don’t care what order Highroller, myself, Rezombied, and JoeTerry claim in. (I think that’s everyone in the game.)
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I don't know that it makes a ton of sense for Vez to murder the guy he spent the most time attacking, thereby demonstrating to the town how wrong he was about that thing, in addition to Grape. *shrug*
I think I still don't favor a mass-claim yet until slightly later in the game. If we have additional investigative or other roles, or if the scum aren't able to to an accurate threat assessment, they may kill some of the wrong people and allow us to benefit from a few more rounds of night interactions. Losing their RBer helps militate in favor of a claim, but they still have a NK at play. Maybe it doesn't matter as much since Iso already part-claimed, IDK, but if the mafia are on the fence about whether they can safely kill Iso tonight or not, I'd say that's probably a good thing.
We do seem to have some roles that might work cooperatively with others, though. So it might not be the worst thing. *thinks*
Yeah, I think I'd rather give it at least one more day before we mass.
The biggest factor is that right now, the mafia don't know if we have protective roles, and they don't know how dangerous Iso and Terry are, whether they have reusable abilities.
So they have to play around a doctor, and they have to take their best guess as to how much of a threat those two represent, vs. how much of a threat the rest of us might present. And that creates a major opportunity for them to misplay to our benefit, and kill less-than-optimal people.
@dan: I expressed my opiniom of axel theory crafting in a post on the last page. It's because his theory crafting is clearing people when there are too many cleared people already.
It's almost the same situation as in phantom toolboth. I see you as scum as the PoE is pretty tight.
I dislike claiming at this moment as my role is made to be bad to claim, but we have so much advantage that it doesn't really matter. I'll claim first if needed also as my role doesn't interact with anything we might have.
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@highroller: All of those are true points, but none of them make me scum.
Funny, Grapefruit21 said the same thing. Because he was mafia. Of course he said that. Are you seriously thinking that saying, "I'm not mafia" is going to magically make me think you aren't.
I flipflopped between terry and grapefruit at the end of the last day, because I was insecure about my reads.
Oh give me a freaking break. You didn't read Grapefruit21 as mafia, you defended him throughout the day and you were very reluctant to vote for him. Even when you did, you expressed misgivings about it. So don't tell me you wavered in between the two of them.
I'll massclaim at this point, absolutely. There's no way 1 mafioso can take anywhere near the advantage of it that 8 townsfolk can. I'll even go first if so desired.
... Ok, so, it's desired. Let's get to it then.
@Highroller I think your argument against Terry fails Occam's Razor.
It does not.
"Terry is not cleared" is not an argument that fails, it is a fact. Is there a nonzero chance of Terry being mafia? Yes? Then he's not cleared. That's what "cleared" means.
And the idea of a mafia with a bonus nightkill is not out of the question.
**** it, let’s massclaim. I want dan, vezok, Az, and Axelrod to be the first four to claim, followed by KA, and then I don’t care what order Highroller, myself, Rezombied, and JoeTerry claim in. (I think that’s everyone in the game.)
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I don't know that it makes a ton of sense for Vez to murder the guy he spent the most time attacking, thereby demonstrating to the town how wrong he was about that thing, in addition to Grape. *shrug*
I think I still don't favor a mass-claim yet until slightly later in the game. If we have additional investigative or other roles, or if the scum aren't able to to an accurate threat assessment, they may kill some of the wrong people and allow us to benefit from a few more rounds of night interactions. Losing their RBer helps militate in favor of a claim, but they still have a NK at play. Maybe it doesn't matter as much since Iso already part-claimed, IDK, but if the mafia are on the fence about whether they can safely kill Iso tonight or not, I'd say that's probably a good thing.
We do seem to have some roles that might work cooperatively with others, though. So it might not be the worst thing. *thinks*
Yeah, I think I'd rather give it at least one more day before we mass.
The biggest factor is that right now, the mafia don't know if we have protective roles, and they don't know how dangerous Iso and Terry are, whether they have reusable abilities.
So they have to play around a doctor, and they have to take their best guess as to how much of a threat those two represent, vs. how much of a threat the rest of us might present. And that creates a major opportunity for them to misplay to our benefit, and kill less-than-optimal people.
Soooo, just scum then, Az?
I mean, seriously. You can be against claiming, but on the basis that we have to be super careful so as not to give too much info to the one remaining scum so he won't know what he has to play around and might then kill some of the "wrong" people is super weak. You are legit scare mongering here.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Yeah I claimed Burdering Vig. Does it matter if I’m full vig or one shot?
You didn't claim card, you didn't claim flavor, and you didn't claim how your role abiliy works, specifically if it has any restrictions on the mechanics of this game like every other role seems to, nor did you claim whether you had any other abilities. Full claim means FULL claim.
Don’t you think that info is better left a question mark?
I’m totally fine with JoeTerry and myself abstaining from the massclaim. My role is more interesting when I reveal it later, anyway.
Hey, JoeTerry, question for you: Why did you shoot Bur over Az? Obviously not complaining, but you were wailing to the end of Day 1 about how Az was scum.
KA, can you show your work on the vezok/Grapefruit interactions?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I’m totally fine with JoeTerry and myself abstaining from the massclaim. My role is more interesting when I reveal it later, anyway.
Hey, JoeTerry, question for you: Why did you shoot Bur over Az? Obviously not complaining, but you were wailing to the end of Day 1 about how Az was scum.
KA, can you show your work on the vezok/Grapefruit interactions?
I think Axel hit it on the nose with Az.
In fact, Unvote(?), Vote Az
Lord knows I wanted to shoot him, but I know I’m wrong sometimes and Az can be very good at times, but Bur was lurking and was ultimately the better vig shot. A risk reward type thing I guess.
I mean, seriously. You can be against claiming, but on the basis that we have to be super careful so as not to give too much info to the one remaining scum so he won't know what he has to play around and might then kill some of the "wrong" people is super weak. You are legit scare mongering here.
Or maybe I have a couple lines of play in mind that would be easily disrupted if we claim too soon. BC no matter how many mafia are left alive, sometimes all it takes is a single NK to neuter an interaction.
But in addition to that, the scum have a real conundrum facing them at the moment as far as who is a priority target, and I'd like to keep it that way. They don't know if Terry can fire again. They don't know precisely what Iso can do. They don't know if they have to play around a doctor. If we do have a doctor, that might be serving them on a silver platter to the scum. If we have a bulletproof, they don't know to avoid firing at that guy. If we have an investigative role, again, that could be serving them up on a silver platter. If we have any other roles that can self-clear in some form or fashion, we lose what could be a critical cleared slot for the endgame.
It's loose, lazy, reckless play. Are we really far ahead atm? Yes. Could this throw away a ton of the advantages we currently have from knocking off two scum this early? Also yes.
There's a lot hedging/qualifications for this massclaim. In everyone's next post, can they clearly state if they are willing to fullclaim?
Not a land. Willing to fullclaim. It will basically blank my role, but given that I'm on the scummier end of the totem pole (still haven't heard a compelling reason why this is the case), I don't believe I have much leeway to complain.
@Highroller: I think you're just willingly being obtuse. That's not what Occam's says, and you likely know better. You're explaining reasons why Terry can not be cleared, which I don't think anyone disagrees can be true. Bonus nightkills and killing one's own partner are viable lines of play.
But most likely to be true? No. Most logical course of play? Probably not (make them burn the lynch on obvscum instead of having a shot at mafioso #3), so your point about that being the best line for Terry regardless of alignment is, at BEST, arguable.
@Iso: Role madness. Probably safe to say the scum have a third role. Why are you specifically curious about the Vezok interactions? You said earlier you believe Vezok is town.
@Az: I don't believe you've ever properly acknowledged/responded to my 540.
@KA: Did nothing in their later interactions tip this off to you? I don't think that Vezok is scum by any means, but those early posts don't really do much for me. I agree with you that they read naturally, but I think that can come from a scum perspective given the context (very matter-of-fact dialogue of meta & intention, leaning towards theory more than anything else, which doesn't really do anything AI IMO).
@Vez So... theorycrafting about an unknown, but probably town role makes someone more likely to be town, without providing any behavioral evidence to back up one's claims?
@Rez: Re: your 691, I agree that it seems unlikely to group both buddies in that same posting, especially given how obvious Bur was to be a lynch candidate the following day.
Put aside your vote analysis on Vezok for a while. Where do you think the mindset from his posting was generally coming from? For example, I think 453 represents the often bullish town!Vezok we see, and given the traction Terry was having, I think unvoting him in 509 is not a play he would make as scum.
Dude, you have to see that the odds of Terry being scum here are astronomically small. Astronomically. Notwithstanding the fact that, yes, it is technically a non-zero possibility. I do remember the last game I played with Terry, and in that game he was stubborn and kind of did what he wanted regardless of whether it was a good idea or not . So his refusal to claim anything more here is not at all inconsistent or suspicious.
But on that topic, I kind of want to just go ahead and start claiming things. Less because I think it's absolutely the best idea ever and more because I'm kinda bored. Kinda. I want to more it forward, and I have a hard time seeing how we lose from this position (famous last words, I know). So anyway, I will start with just this:
I am the Painter's Servant. I can target a player at night and learn their Races/Card Types. Like, had I targeted Bur or Cantrip my result would have been "Legendary Land". If I targeted myself my result is "Artifact Creature - Scarecrow." I targeted someone last night and have a result. Won't say who just yet, but the result was unusual enough that I'm pretty sure I know their card. I also have a "Quest" ability that turns on at a certain point but I guess I'll keep that one under wraps for the moment too. This ability seems not that great. The odds that a scum false-claims their card/race/type appears low to me, but still potentially useful, and maybe moreso in combination with others. So there it is.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Either we all claim with the exception of highroller(conf town) and terry(almost conf town) or nobody claims.
All of us claimed they have roles better left unclaimed so I'm not sure which way to swing. With two dead scum I think the game can be solved by analysis.
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This is dumb. I already told you what I have to hide.
No, actively keeping information from the town when we're on the cusp of winning, and the mafia's sole option at this point is to hide under cover of town ignorance is the foolish choice.
Claim how your role ability works. In full.
Because here's the thing I'm having trouble figuring out: how were you able to kill Bur? "I'm the vig," well, here's the thing, it seems like every role this game, except Grapefruit21's, was severely gimped due to the reliance every role seems to have on the mechanics of the game. Yet you were able to kill Bur without problems, and are insinuating that you could kill someone again (which I'm assuming is a bluff, I assume). How did you manage to kill Bur, and how does your kill ability work, exactly?
@Highroller: I think you're just willingly being obtuse. That's not what Occam's says, and you likely know better. You're explaining reasons why Terry can not be cleared,
He isn't cleared. That's a fact. One cannot say a fact is illogical.
But most likely to be true? No.
You have no ability to state that, because you don't know all the facts of this game.
In fact you are misusing Occam's Razor, because Occam's Razor specifically states that no more assumptions should be used than are necessary. But you do not know the number of necessary assumptions. Moreover, Occam's Razor is generally employed to reinforce preference for falsibility. "You don't know that magical unicorns didn't do it!" is true, we don't, but it is preferable to believe that gravity and not magical unicorns causes the apple to fall from the tree because magical unicorns are not a falsifiable claim. Terry being town or mafia is.
But if it helps at all, I'm also a vig. I have a third ability - or to be more accurate, if a certain condition is met I will have a third kill ability, I don't have it now - that I kept secret until now.
Now, are there two vigilantes in this game? It raises an eyebrow but is certainly not out of the range of possibility, especially with the burden on Wuffles to come up with 12 stock power roles, which I assume we all are. But how, specifically does Terry's ability work? Why is he so reluctant to claim? And again, I feel that the scenario that if a mafia were to have a bonus kill ability (not out of the realm of plausibility), the most useful play would be to target Bur and claim vigilante, because Bur was going to die anyway.
Dude, you have to see that the odds of Terry being scum here are astronomically small. Astronomically.
I don't agree, but if the threat of lynch forces Terry to claim, which his refusal to do is directly harming the town, then mission accomplished. There's no reason not to vote him.
Az specifically asked me not to claim anything else until he does. So I'd be happy hearing from him first and then I might talk to you considering your claim.
But if it helps at all, I'm also a vig. I have a third ability - or to be more accurate, if a certain condition is met I will have a third kill ability, I don't have it now - that I kept secret until now.
I knew you were holding something back. Someday maybe people will just stop questioning my ability to game a set up. This does put the graveyard eater more back into play as a possible scum role, assuming your killing ability has something to do with the graveyard. If it doesn't, then my earlier point still stands.
I'm assuming Terry's shot isn't unlimited. Could very, very easily be something like "Target player, if they are a land they die, if not (do something else)" Sort of a conditional role like GF's. Makes sense to me given how he's into whether we are lands or not, the role could kill Townies (see: Cantrip) and he would have then gotten a bit lucky with Bur. Multiple (conditional) killing roles existing in the same Town is not difficult for me to believe.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Highroller, everyone in the thread seems to strongly disagree with you on Mafia theory. Are you going to continue pushing Mafia theory or are you going to do something else?
Highroller, everyone in the thread seems to strongly disagree with you on Mafia theory. Are you going to continue pushing Mafia theory or are you going to do something else?
Oh Lord, don't ask this question.
Say what you will, but he's a man who feels the strength of his convictions.
And that said, I'm going back to just re-reading stuff and trying to analyze the actual play of things.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Neither of us know the "fact" of the matter. Very little in this game can actually be fact, but if it turns out Terry is town, him being cleared by his actions will have been fact. I'd hope you can understand that I'm not attempting to argue fact, but likelihood.
We have two competing theories, thus my referencing Occam's.
For your circumstance to be true:
Terry has to be mafia
scum!Terry has an extra kill
scum team (daychat) have to have a similar perspective as you on mafia theory (which, given the demonstrated behavior of the game so far, seems unlikely, thus my posit that it's a reasonable plurality that is being stacked)
scum team had to not have additional information making them value other individuals higher than the potential towncred from killing Bur
scum!Terry had to have been willing to bus GF as opposed to being willing to NL (a viable option for scum in that situation, if activity from the previous deadline is a reference point)
For mine:
Terry is town
Terry is not lying (presumably, this would've been CC'd by now if so)
Terry is playing to his win condition
Terry's shot was not manipulated (presumably, this would've been claimed if so, since a noteworthy amount of the town is clearing Terry.)
Thus my thinking my (and, additionally, the plurality of townsfolk at this point)theory best adheres to Occam's.
@dan: Yeah I know. This week is ******* hard. I barely have time to post, but I love this game so I keep checking it for every new post, but I don't have time to do a full reread that I want to do. Maybe over the weekend, but I won't promise anything.
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No, actively keeping information from the town when we're on the cusp of winning, and the mafia's sole option at this point is to hide under cover of town ignorance is the foolish choice.
Claim how your role ability works. In full.
Because here's the thing I'm having trouble figuring out: how were you able to kill Bur? "I'm the vig," well, here's the thing, it seems like every role this game, except Grapefruit21's, was severely gimped due to the reliance every role seems to have on the mechanics of the game. Yet you were able to kill Bur without problems, and are insinuating that you could kill someone again (which I'm assuming is a bluff, I assume). How did you manage to kill Bur, and how does your kill ability work, exactly?
He isn't cleared. That's a fact. One cannot say a fact is illogical.
You have no ability to state that, because you don't know all the facts of this game.
In fact you are misusing Occam's Razor, because Occam's Razor specifically states that no more assumptions should be used than are necessary. But you do not know the number of necessary assumptions. Moreover, Occam's Razor is generally employed to reinforce preference for falsibility. "You don't know that magical unicorns didn't do it!" is true, we don't, but it is preferable to believe that gravity and not magical unicorns causes the apple to fall from the tree because magical unicorns are not a falsifiable claim. Terry being town or mafia is.
But if it helps at all, I'm also a vig. I have a third ability - or to be more accurate, if a certain condition is met I will have a third kill ability, I don't have it now - that I kept secret until now.
Now, are there two vigilantes in this game? It raises an eyebrow but is certainly not out of the range of possibility, especially with the burden on Wuffles to come up with 12 stock power roles, which I assume we all are. But how, specifically does Terry's ability work? Why is he so reluctant to claim? And again, I feel that the scenario that if a mafia were to have a bonus kill ability (not out of the realm of plausibility), the most useful play would be to target Bur and claim vigilante, because Bur was going to die anyway.
I don't agree, but if the threat of lynch forces Terry to claim, which his refusal to do is directly harming the town, then mission accomplished. There's no reason not to vote him.
Woah. Alright, I'm down with a Terry full-claim, followed by Highroller full-claim, digest and see if further claims are necessary from anyone else.
Terry, I'm not going to answer that question right now.
My read on Vez is that he's kinda just coasting effort-wise since he's being universally townread. Could be improved, but I'm not lynching him anytime soon.
[WIFOM]@Iso
I shouldn't be lynched because I, outside of V/LA periods, have been productive and as active as I normally am as either alignment. Beyond that, I haven't heard a real case presented against me besides the age-old "mafia are more likely to be in lurkers," which I agree with. But it needs to be contextual. Since returning, for better or for worse, this is my baseline activity level.
I don't think my interactions with either of Grapefruit/Bur are particularly AI, and I'd say my interactions/read with/by Cantrip would be points in my favor. Beyond that, I don't have a great reason to be kept alive. My role is confirmable with help, but not overly powerful, and I certainly wouldn't be more helpful than some of the other present players in creating cases. As time moves on, I'd think I can help with behavioral analysis fairly well.[/WIFOM]
@Highroller I think your argument against Terry fails Occam's Razor. Make the town expend the lynch, kill a potential investigative role.
@Vez What makes you think theorycrafting is AI, and in a good way re: Axel? Why do you think I'm the most likely mafia?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I don't know that it makes a ton of sense for Vez to murder the guy he spent the most time attacking, thereby demonstrating to the town how wrong he was about that thing, in addition to Grape. *shrug*
I think I still don't favor a mass-claim yet until slightly later in the game. If we have additional investigative or other roles, or if the scum aren't able to to an accurate threat assessment, they may kill some of the wrong people and allow us to benefit from a few more rounds of night interactions. Losing their RBer helps militate in favor of a claim, but they still have a NK at play. Maybe it doesn't matter as much since Iso already part-claimed, IDK, but if the mafia are on the fence about whether they can safely kill Iso tonight or not, I'd say that's probably a good thing.
We do seem to have some roles that might work cooperatively with others, though. So it might not be the worst thing. *thinks*
Yeah, I think I'd rather give it at least one more day before we mass.
So they have to play around a doctor, and they have to take their best guess as to how much of a threat those two represent, vs. how much of a threat the rest of us might present. And that creates a major opportunity for them to misplay to our benefit, and kill less-than-optimal people.
@dan: I expressed my opiniom of axel theory crafting in a post on the last page. It's because his theory crafting is clearing people when there are too many cleared people already.
It's almost the same situation as in phantom toolboth. I see you as scum as the PoE is pretty tight.
I dislike claiming at this moment as my role is made to be bad to claim, but we have so much advantage that it doesn't really matter. I'll claim first if needed also as my role doesn't interact with anything we might have.
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Rationale behind this?
Funny, Grapefruit21 said the same thing. Because he was mafia. Of course he said that. Are you seriously thinking that saying, "I'm not mafia" is going to magically make me think you aren't.
Oh give me a freaking break. You didn't read Grapefruit21 as mafia, you defended him throughout the day and you were very reluctant to vote for him. Even when you did, you expressed misgivings about it. So don't tell me you wavered in between the two of them.
Why do you keep bringing this up?
... Ok, so, it's desired. Let's get to it then.
It does not.
"Terry is not cleared" is not an argument that fails, it is a fact. Is there a nonzero chance of Terry being mafia? Yes? Then he's not cleared. That's what "cleared" means.
And the idea of a mafia with a bonus nightkill is not out of the question.
How about this?
1. ganderin_dan
2. vezokpiraka
3. Azrael
4. Axelrod
5. TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
6. KamikazeArchon
7. Iso
8. Highroller
9. rezombied
When did you full claim?
I’m not opposed to Highroller’s claim order.
As for why we don’t have a Cop, I intend to leave that a mystery, for now.
Az, if the scum have a third role, it’s probably informational.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Same with iso, for the moment.
I mean, seriously. You can be against claiming, but on the basis that we have to be super careful so as not to give too much info to the one remaining scum so he won't know what he has to play around and might then kill some of the "wrong" people is super weak. You are legit scare mongering here.
Absolutely not.
So far, my review through page ~5 suggests that Highroller, Vezok and Rezombied are probably not scum with Grapefruit.
I'm not a land.
Hey, JoeTerry, question for you: Why did you shoot Bur over Az? Obviously not complaining, but you were wailing to the end of Day 1 about how Az was scum.
KA, can you show your work on the vezok/Grapefruit interactions?
I think Axel hit it on the nose with Az.
In fact, Unvote(?), Vote Az
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I would prefer to abstain but if too many people abstain the whole mass claim becomes pointless. So meh.
Unvote, Vote Terry. What do you have to hide?
Or maybe I have a couple lines of play in mind that would be easily disrupted if we claim too soon. BC no matter how many mafia are left alive, sometimes all it takes is a single NK to neuter an interaction.
But in addition to that, the scum have a real conundrum facing them at the moment as far as who is a priority target, and I'd like to keep it that way. They don't know if Terry can fire again. They don't know precisely what Iso can do. They don't know if they have to play around a doctor. If we do have a doctor, that might be serving them on a silver platter to the scum. If we have a bulletproof, they don't know to avoid firing at that guy. If we have an investigative role, again, that could be serving them up on a silver platter. If we have any other roles that can self-clear in some form or fashion, we lose what could be a critical cleared slot for the endgame.
It's loose, lazy, reckless play. Are we really far ahead atm? Yes. Could this throw away a ton of the advantages we currently have from knocking off two scum this early? Also yes.
Not a land. Willing to fullclaim. It will basically blank my role, but given that I'm on the scummier end of the totem pole (still haven't heard a compelling reason why this is the case), I don't believe I have much leeway to complain.
@Highroller: I think you're just willingly being obtuse. That's not what Occam's says, and you likely know better. You're explaining reasons why Terry can not be cleared, which I don't think anyone disagrees can be true. Bonus nightkills and killing one's own partner are viable lines of play.
But most likely to be true? No. Most logical course of play? Probably not (make them burn the lynch on obvscum instead of having a shot at mafioso #3), so your point about that being the best line for Terry regardless of alignment is, at BEST, arguable.
@Iso: Role madness. Probably safe to say the scum have a third role. Why are you specifically curious about the Vezok interactions? You said earlier you believe Vezok is town.
@Az: I don't believe you've ever properly acknowledged/responded to my 540.
@KA: Did nothing in their later interactions tip this off to you? I don't think that Vezok is scum by any means, but those early posts don't really do much for me. I agree with you that they read naturally, but I think that can come from a scum perspective given the context (very matter-of-fact dialogue of meta & intention, leaning towards theory more than anything else, which doesn't really do anything AI IMO).
@Vez So... theorycrafting about an unknown, but probably town role makes someone more likely to be town, without providing any behavioral evidence to back up one's claims?
@Rez: Re: your 691, I agree that it seems unlikely to group both buddies in that same posting, especially given how obvious Bur was to be a lynch candidate the following day.
Put aside your vote analysis on Vezok for a while. Where do you think the mindset from his posting was generally coming from? For example, I think 453 represents the often bullish town!Vezok we see, and given the traction Terry was having, I think unvoting him in 509 is not a play he would make as scum.
@KA: Did nothing in GF/Vezok's earlier interactions...*
@Vez: re - Axel
@Rez: it seems unlikely that GF would group both buddies...*
Dude, you have to see that the odds of Terry being scum here are astronomically small. Astronomically. Notwithstanding the fact that, yes, it is technically a non-zero possibility. I do remember the last game I played with Terry, and in that game he was stubborn and kind of did what he wanted regardless of whether it was a good idea or not . So his refusal to claim anything more here is not at all inconsistent or suspicious.
But on that topic, I kind of want to just go ahead and start claiming things. Less because I think it's absolutely the best idea ever and more because I'm kinda bored. Kinda. I want to more it forward, and I have a hard time seeing how we lose from this position (famous last words, I know). So anyway, I will start with just this:
I am the Painter's Servant. I can target a player at night and learn their Races/Card Types. Like, had I targeted Bur or Cantrip my result would have been "Legendary Land". If I targeted myself my result is "Artifact Creature - Scarecrow." I targeted someone last night and have a result. Won't say who just yet, but the result was unusual enough that I'm pretty sure I know their card. I also have a "Quest" ability that turns on at a certain point but I guess I'll keep that one under wraps for the moment too. This ability seems not that great. The odds that a scum false-claims their card/race/type appears low to me, but still potentially useful, and maybe moreso in combination with others. So there it is.
All of us claimed they have roles better left unclaimed so I'm not sure which way to swing. With two dead scum I think the game can be solved by analysis.
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Claim how your role ability works. In full.
Because here's the thing I'm having trouble figuring out: how were you able to kill Bur? "I'm the vig," well, here's the thing, it seems like every role this game, except Grapefruit21's, was severely gimped due to the reliance every role seems to have on the mechanics of the game. Yet you were able to kill Bur without problems, and are insinuating that you could kill someone again (which I'm assuming is a bluff, I assume). How did you manage to kill Bur, and how does your kill ability work, exactly?
He isn't cleared. That's a fact. One cannot say a fact is illogical.
You have no ability to state that, because you don't know all the facts of this game.
In fact you are misusing Occam's Razor, because Occam's Razor specifically states that no more assumptions should be used than are necessary. But you do not know the number of necessary assumptions. Moreover, Occam's Razor is generally employed to reinforce preference for falsibility. "You don't know that magical unicorns didn't do it!" is true, we don't, but it is preferable to believe that gravity and not magical unicorns causes the apple to fall from the tree because magical unicorns are not a falsifiable claim. Terry being town or mafia is.
But if it helps at all, I'm also a vig. I have a third ability - or to be more accurate, if a certain condition is met I will have a third kill ability, I don't have it now - that I kept secret until now.
Now, are there two vigilantes in this game? It raises an eyebrow but is certainly not out of the range of possibility, especially with the burden on Wuffles to come up with 12 stock power roles, which I assume we all are. But how, specifically does Terry's ability work? Why is he so reluctant to claim? And again, I feel that the scenario that if a mafia were to have a bonus kill ability (not out of the realm of plausibility), the most useful play would be to target Bur and claim vigilante, because Bur was going to die anyway.
I don't agree, but if the threat of lynch forces Terry to claim, which his refusal to do is directly harming the town, then mission accomplished. There's no reason not to vote him.
I'm assuming Terry's shot isn't unlimited. Could very, very easily be something like "Target player, if they are a land they die, if not (do something else)" Sort of a conditional role like GF's. Makes sense to me given how he's into whether we are lands or not, the role could kill Townies (see: Cantrip) and he would have then gotten a bit lucky with Bur. Multiple (conditional) killing roles existing in the same Town is not difficult for me to believe.
Im not a land
Not opposed to claims either.
@terry calm down, lol. Ive been sick.
unvote
Say what you will, but he's a man who feels the strength of his convictions.
And that said, I'm going back to just re-reading stuff and trying to analyze the actual play of things.
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Neither of us know the "fact" of the matter. Very little in this game can actually be fact, but if it turns out Terry is town, him being cleared by his actions will have been fact. I'd hope you can understand that I'm not attempting to argue fact, but likelihood.
We have two competing theories, thus my referencing Occam's.
For your circumstance to be true:
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Woah. Alright, I'm down with a Terry full-claim, followed by Highroller full-claim, digest and see if further claims are necessary from anyone else.
Terry, I'm not going to answer that question right now.