I can't remember at this moment who suggested that a vig shoot at Bur last night, but that person is probably town.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Bears mentioning in light of GF's flip that his choice of Highroller (presumably collectively with other Mafia) and his subsequent justification of same, suggests someone on the Mafia may have known Highroller from back in the day. And is that actually only Az and me?
Like, they could have picked him completely randomly. That is possible. They could have picked him because they didn't know him at all and hoped his choices would be the least informed of anyone's. I suppose something like that is possible too. But I find it interesting.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Ah, it was actually GF who said if there is a vig. shoot Bur.
So that's not a lot of help....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I feel like just slowly reading back through the thread again from the beginning and making note of anything that stands out to me. The only problem with that is it's going to lead to (1) an enormous single post that is going to be a tremendous slog for anyone to read, or (2) a ton of smaller posts leading to me getting a multi-posting/spam warning (if no one is around to break them up.)
I think I'm going to start with the smaller posts. Maybe three quotes at a time or something.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Mons' Goblin Raiders, Townie Goblin, corpse discovered Day 1, body dug up and devoured Night 1.
Re: Highroller's Goblins. We know HR is Town. We know neither of the dead Mafia had anything to do with the graveyard or those Goblins. So if the scum had anything to do with the Graveyard/Goblin then it's exactly the last scum who does/did it. I do not believe, however, that the mod. would make a Townie role whos function was to only help the scum. By providing them with the fodder for whatever function the scum role has. That's just a little too bastardy for me. I could believe that the Town and Scum could both be given roles that use the Graveyard/Goblin, but the issue there is, how would that work? What's the priority? If the The Town and the Scum both want to dig up that Goblin, who gets it? It's kind of muddy and creates timing/priority issues that I don't like. And that in turn suggests to me that, in fact, the role that's doing it is simply another Townie role. That's simpler and just makes more sense.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Of course, that assumes Highroller is telling all about his role and didn't hold something back, which I kind of assumed he did. If his role does something else and it's something useful on it's own, then I suppose the Mod. could possibly make the Goblin be something that benefits the scum.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Don't we still have the favorable rules regarding multi-posting in effect?
Actually, I left confirmed town alive because I don't have a NK, but way to OMGUS. My points from yesterday regarding your play being hypocritical and extremely risky for a townie still stand. If we hadn't taken out Grape, you probably would have wound up roleblocked, and it's some kind of Christmas miracle you didn't get redirected by Bur since you were literally the only person who declared that you had a confirmable power role yesterday, IIRC.
So I guess we're lucky, but I still don't understand how on the one hand you berate the town for sharing unnecessary role information, and then the same exact day do that exact same thing in both a self-serving and ultimately pointless fashion where the only effect was to help the mafia identify you had a power role they could screw with, and not to clear you. So pardon me for seriously eyebrowing you for that, among your other issues.
Townie power roles sometimes act the same way as mafia, because they also feel like they have something to hide and/or get upset about people putting them in a position to have to spill their info, and because of that they wind up giving off the same tells as a mafia would. That seems to be what happened here, and one of the only people I've met who can accurately distinguish between those two groups of people was Iso in his prime.
@Axel - I don't necessarily agree that a mod wouldn't see a way to utilize a townie remaining alive, and providing a benefit to the scum for doing so, as "too bastardy". Depending on how the game turns out, you could see that as providing an interesting strategic tension, where the mafia has to weigh the benefits of killing off a particular townie from a lynch or information standpoint, vs. the role benefits of having that player remain alive. Absolutely something I might do.
I wouldn't make any assumptions regarding the alignment of HR's pairing, either way. Better to trust in analysis.
@Axel - I don't necessarily agree that a mod wouldn't see a way to utilize a townie remaining alive, and providing a benefit to the scum for doing so, as "too bastardy". Depending on how the game turns out, you could see that as providing an interesting strategic tension, where the mafia has to weigh the benefits of killing off a particular townie from a lynch or information standpoint, vs. the role benefits of having that player remain alive. Absolutely something I might do.
I wouldn't make any assumptions regarding the alignment of HR's pairing, either way. Better to trust in analysis.
Yes, well, *cough*, you are a bastard mod. so, suggesting that it's a role that you might design is not exactly detracting from my point.
Technically, I don't know Wuffles tendencies on such things either, so, yes, it's possible, but I will assume no bastard-mod tendencies until shown otherwise.
As for whether I'm correct about what the design would be, well, *cough* let me refer you to the discussion I had with Cantripmancer about what made sense for GF's role as a scum role and just point out that I was 100% correct.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
and it's some kind of Christmas miracle you didn't get redirected by Bur since you were literally the only person who declared that you had a confirmable power role yesterday, IIRC.
Welp, there goes my theory. How did Az of all people manage to derp clear himself? I am pretty sure that if he was on the scumteam he would have read Bur's role at least once or realised that this is not how it works.
That leaves Axelrod and Ganderin and axelrod is bringing some mad theory crafting here which doesn't really benefit him as scum.
So
vote ganderin_dan
I guess. Can you claim quickly so we get that out of the way?
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Self-redirect (One-shot, passive) – At the start of the game, select a player. The first time you are targeted by a non-killing ability this game, that ability is “bounced” and redirected to the chosen player instead, after which you lose this ability. You will be told if you were targeted, but not by who, and the redirected ability’s owner will know who they were redirected to, but not who or what redirected them. If that player dies before your ability resolves, you may choose a second player to target.
Bur's ability for anyone who didn't read. I just find it impossible that Az as mafia reads Bur's role as a simple redirector and doesn't even realise it doesn't do anything against non-killing actions. I guess he can try to woo us intentionally, but I highly doubt Az tries something like this as scum and the delivery also felt natural.
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Oh, wow. That's the most gimped mafia redirector I've ever seen.
That also slightly further solidifies Terry as town as opposed to killing Bur for town cred as mafia, I think, since it lightly implies the existence of a townie-controlled vig that Bur did not wish the mafia to have the chance to redirect with this.
I only did some light review over the Night, so I'll dig into it now that we have two flips. Double interaction analysis is delicious. The only thing I decided overnight is that Iso's approach is probably just his usual town "rebel without a cause" shtick.
@Terry: I don't see how that clears me?
@vezok: uhh, what do you mean "doesn't even realise it doesn't do anything against non-killing actions." It only works on non-killing actions.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Oh, wow. That's the most gimped mafia redirector I've ever seen.
That also slightly further solidifies Terry as town as opposed to killing Bur for town cred as mafia, I think, since it lightly implies the existence of a townie-controlled vig that Bur did not wish the mafia to have the chance to redirect with this.
This is the worst game I've ever seen you play. So much to the point that I'm not going to throw out the possibility of an intentional derp clear attempt. I needed no other solidification, I am so lock town at this point it hurts.
Hey vezok. Why are you pushing dan to claim quickly? He's nowhere near lynch threshold, and we have plenty of time.
By my PoE him and axelrod are the only ones that have any real chance to be mafia. I already think axelrod might not be mafia just due to posting reasonable stuff. For example, I don't think the last scum comes into today with an idea about how the person who took the dead goblin is almost certainly town. It serves no purpose for mafia and just helps reduce the PoE even further.
So dan is practically the odd one out from all the people and I don't really see how he isn't at the very least one of the top contenders for lynching today. I don't really feel like we have to wait for a week before we get a claim. To be fair, I don't think there's any claim that could convince me he is town so it doesn't really matter when he claims.
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Ah, I missed the fact we weren't getting the "Quest" parts of these roles. Thought Cantrip's looked particularly weak.
Also, I've some basis to believe that Dan is not, in fact, the last Mafia. This is not a hard and fast clear by any stretch of the imagination. It involves some guesswork, but it's in keeping with some of my ideas about this game.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Slight + for Rezombied here, in as much as it appears to be a "serious" vote from Bur and Mafia are less likely to come right out of the gates non-random-voting their teammates when said teammate hasn't yet done anything too egregious.
The "hope Iso is not serious in #54." is weird vote: bur lets go bois!!!
Similarly, first "serious" vote from Moos12 (now Azrael) is a slight + for him.
Neither of these is anything like a solid clear, but, you know, one data point.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@highroller : It is not obvious why you think I'm scum and there's no way I can defend myself from claims of being obvious scum.
It's not obvious why I think you're mafia? Are you joking?
So, what are we looking for, exactly? A guy who tried to defend Grape during day one? Because you did that.
Someone whom Grapefruit21 defended? Because he did that.
A guy who probably wouldn't vote Grape until just about the very end of day when he reluctantly jumped on the bandwagon? Because you did that.
A guy who tried to attack rezombied while Grapefruit21 was doing so? Because you did that.
A guy who acted overly defensive and threatened when suspicion was cast on him? Because you did that - by your own admission.
Oh wait, the mafia could communicate during the day. So might we be looking for someone who pivots positions on a topic during the day - someone who starts out with a stance on a topic and then suddenly switching gears to shift to a position that matched Grapefruit21's position on the same topic? Because you did that too:
While the debate about claiming has for the most part been associated with me, for obvious reasons, it is important to note that the discussion actually began much earlier.
After I claimed on post 19, Grapefruit posted on Post 20 that we should not claim anything else based on flavor, given that his role cares about card types.
I think that we probably shouldn't claim anything else based on flavor. My role cares about card types and I wouldn't be surprised if scum roles did too. As much as I want to talk about my card because it's one of my favorites and just sweet!
vezok would shortly after post saying he did not know what to make of my claim, saying it’s not useful to his role. This, as we all know by now, prompted rezombied to vote vezok, as vezok had gone against Grapefruit.
We already know this, why am I pointing it out? Well, what is fascinating to me are vezok’s responses to this. Consider post 34:
How much time did you spend fabricating this reason for believing I'm scum? Simply put, it is impossible for me to control the actions of other players, by ignoring posts from others. I might exasperate people with this, but I'll hardly make them claim if they didn't really want to.
And even if I actually thought that my post would influence anyone, I'd still do it as any alignment as I have a strong history of suggesting different types of mass-claims early game even though almost the entire MTGS playerbase considers it a bad idea.
As for you question: I like claiming early and often. I also do things in game that I believe are better that the vast majority of players would consider awful. Even so, just because one player made a post suggesting people stop claiming, doesn't mean that is good advice. Why would grape's opinion hold more sway than both my and highroller's?
I have a question for you rezombied: Why do you think people are voting you right now?
Let’s really analyze this post here, because there are three things vezok says that are of note:
1. His post was not meant to sway others into disregarding Grape’s advice and claiming parts of their role, BUT even if he’d thought it would sway others into doing so, he’d still do it even as a town given his strong history of proposing mass claims.
2. That he likes claiming early and often, says just because Grape made a post doesn’t mean it’s good advice, and asks why grape’s opinion should hold more sway than both his and Highroller’s.
3. He then asks the question of why rezombied thinks people were voting for him. More on this later.
For now, let’s look at the first two. So vezok defends himself against rezombied by saying he’s an ardent proponent of claiming, saying he would claim even if it meant influencing others to claim, and saying he likes claiming early and often, including mass claims.
We then move to post 37. rezombied responds to vezok’s statement,
[quote from="vezokpiraka »" url="/forums/community-forums/mafia/799971-banned-mafia-day-1-carde-diem?comment=34"]
just because one player made a post suggesting people stop claiming, doesn't mean that is good advice.
what good are you hoping to achieve by not following it?
what good are you hoping to achieve by not following it?
More information in the hands of players. I consider that the town as whole can make better decisions when they know more about the setup. Scum can look at 3 roles, while town only at one. A better understanding of the game mechanics leads to better actions.
vezok also doubles down on his questioning of rezombied’s opinion on his vote, asking why he doesn’t care, but more on that later.
What should be taken into account is something vezok says in this post:
I purposefully ignored grape's post and did my thing.
We are talking about the conversation now because you brought it up. I didn't even oppose grape's point. I haven't claimed anything remotely important, but you act like I went against grape's advice and claimed my card and my entire role.
The part about claiming something “remotely important” is noteworthy.
Recall the impassioned defense by vezok, in which he states he supports roleclaiming all of the time, and when questioned by rezombied what he hoped to achieve, he stated that he sought to give more information to the town. And yet, now vezok is trying to claim that he didn’t actually give up any significant or remotely important information. This is completely contradictory.
It almost invariably ends in me being suspected for being scum with no reason except "Boo, proposing massclaims is scummy." Also not all games need a mass claim of any type. For example, this game does not need people claiming just based on what grape is saying.
Reread that again. “For example, this game does not need people claiming just based on what grape is saying.”
Why is Grapefruit someone that vezok says he doesn’t need to listen to when rezombied scrutinizes him for claiming part of his role, yet when the scrutiny comes from the opposite direction, all of a sudden listening to Grape becomes extremely important?
“I do this kind of stuff all the time! I love claiming! Claim early, claim often! I don’t need to listen to Grape, he can’t tell me what to do!”
“So why don’t you advocate mass claims more often?”
“Well we definitely shouldn’t do it in this game! Look at what Grape posted!”
Again, we’re all supposed to pretend that this isn’t contradictory?
I know people are going to try to strawman this argument by saying that I’m just trying to make vezok suspicious because I don’t like that he doesn’t support the mass claim. But this is garbage. The suspicious element is not that vezok does not agree with a mass claim, it’s his reversal of positions at the drop of a hat (or, more accurately, at the drop of ganderin_dan’s post). Irrespective of what you think of the merits and flaws of a mass claim, the fact that Grapefruit goes from someone vezok ignores because he’s just doing his thing, to saying that Grapefruit’s post is the reason people shouldn’t claim is a total 180.
It really does seem like vezok is fishing for information here while trying to avoid claiming anything substantial about his own role. If vezok was so adamant about the merits of claiming, Grapefruit be damned, then he probably should have claimed more. Yet as soon as ganderin_dan posted his statement, vezok switches, and all of a sudden Grapefruit’s post becomes authoritative and the reason why people shouldn’t claim.
He later goes so far as to say this:
I don't have a problem with people who claim day 1 if they believe it's for the greater good of the game, but it's not a good idea, highroller being an exception.
What happened here?
vezok started out from I support all kinds of claims, I hope to gain information from the town, I’ll do whatever I want, why should Grapefruit’s opinion matter more than mine, and then subsequently 180’ed to, it’s not a good idea to claim, people shouldn’t claim. What happened here? Grapefruit’s post? The one that vezok was so comfortable ignoring?
Or was it ganderin_dan’s scrutiny?
Also, again, we see this lukewarmness about the whole thing. We see adamant support for claiming of all kinds, yet vezok is reluctant to claim any more about his role than he doesn’t use the graveyard. We see vezok later switch and say, No claiming, claiming is bad, Grape said so. Oh, by the way, if anyone wants to claim, that’s totally fine. You can claim if you want to. Don’t let me stand in your way.
It all adds up to a lot of nothing makes sense. As gandarin_dan points out, vezok completely contradicts his own logic, which he then attempts to walk back and acts like he’s not completely switching his position.
We then go to post 73. vezok had previously stated that mass claiming would hinder the town. I asked why. vezok responds with
This question will be answered at a later date, but suffice to say I have very strong reasons to believe this.
So we have a guy who, when voted against, repeatedly states about how much he loves claiming and how much he believes in sharing information with the town… until he suddenly believes the exact opposite.
I challenge anyone to read your interactions with Grapefruit21 yesterday and not be suspicious, and yet you're trying to act like nothing you did yesterday should give anyone the slightest hint of concern? Yeah, comfortable with my vote being where it is.
I mean, fun and games aside, I have a sneaking suspicion we probably would just win with a mass claim at this point
*Slow clap*
(can hear Highroller's eyes rolling already through my computer).
No, because, in your defense, you expressed that it was probably beneficial to the town before.
Anyway, yeah, we should DEFINITELY mass claim.
In addition to at least two-thirds of the mafia members clearly not wanting a mass claim, we know that the mafia have roles themselves, and that by forcing them to claim, they must either claim their own role, which we can use to pinpoint their mafia status like we did with Grapefruit21, or they will be forced to make up a role, in which we might catch them in a lie.
I believe we should role claim in reverse numerical order according to the player list at the start of the thread, starting with ganderin_dan and ending with Iso.
Other thoughts:
1. I'm going to guess the last role is the Godfather, unless someone knows of any other common mafia roles it would more likely be instead.
It doesn't, so I don't know where Terry's coming from either.
3. Terry should not be regarded as cleared. Bur's lynch was inevitable. Throwing Bur under the bus was therefore the only logical play of the remaining mafia member. If said mafia member were to have access to a nightkill ability, Bur would be the logical option to use it on. Also, Terry only joined the bandwagon on Grapefruit when it became clear it was between Grape and himself. Both of these actions would be performed by Terry irrespective of alignment, and therefore he should not get a pass.
4. rezombied is highly unlikely to be mafia at this point. I would say I am also. I doubt that Iso is mafia given that he voted Grapefruit prior to the bandwagon really picking up steam.
5. Arguments about behavior in previous mafia games are totally worthless
Significant usage yesterday was against Cantripmancer, after which it was agreed that Cantripmancer behaves the same way whether he’s town or mafia, resulting in one person inviting for him and the other person continuing to maintain his vote for unrelated reasons (specifically vezokpiraka); and to defend Grapefruit21 (also by vezokpiraka), and Grapefruit ended up being mafia. It was also employed by vezokpiraka to defend himself against rezombied, after which Grapefruit21 attempted to argue that rezombied was mafia because he didn't care about this argument.
So I’m going to go ahead and ignore any future arguments about previous behavior in mafia games. It has granted no one clairvoyance enough to find the mafia’s hidden fortress, and analyzing behavior in this game proved sufficient to lynch Grapefruit21.
Not to mention it seems really obvious to me that if the mafia know you’re all going to look at their previous games, then you’re basically announcing to them exactly how to throw you off their scent.
I said that because of the last game I played with Iso. In which he (apparently) glanced at his role PM for 2 seconds before the game started, misunderstood his role, and later counter-claimed a vig. claim when he was not, in fact, the vig.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I don't have a feel at all for Axel this game. I remember vaguely thinking townie but I don't have anything in my notes.
Lynching Terry, Rez, Bur, KA, and Dan probably nets at least 2 scum. Vig should always fire in there. Rez deserves a ton of skepticism for the late wagon hop. KA looks okay-ish but again we didn't have the numbers when he moved off. Dan doing somehow less than Bur is a giant red flag. Terry needs a lynch.
i dont think grape gives up both of his buddies in this post. kinda wine, but thats just my thought on it.
-----
Anyway RB's are a common scum role. They are also commonly town in Role Madness games. Both sides usually need some form of blocking. The fact that I haven't been CC'd is a great look for me to be quite honest.
This feels scummy.
@vezok: Can you give something better than "not feeling"? More detailed, at least?
Maybe.
Grape doesn't feel like scum. He is fighting his lynch and claimed a role that would mostly be -EV as a scum claim. His wagon also doesn't look like scum trying to save a body.
Terry is just doing nothing, but fighting his lynch and I just came out of a game with Albertino where he did the exact same thing and I was convinced he was scum. (he was town)
I'm just unconvinced on both of them. I'd rather lynch someone else, but I will vote one of them before the deadline. Probably the one with more votes on him.
vezok would rather lynch someone else, but only voted for myself, grape, cantrip, and terry (and bur in rvs) yesterday so lets get into that:
115: votes cantrip:
-KA voted cantrip 5 posts prior (where KA votes cantrip because of meta)
-puts me at 60% town, calls cantrips vote on me in 31 opportunistic
-calls cantrips play shallow and non-commital and full of nothing.
(a reread of cantrups posts up to this point shows:
51: looks good, questions at dan moos and grape are solid
91: responds reasonably to grape and moo, the stuff between he and highroller makes my eyes glaze over though
105: pushes grape along with some meta and highroller stuff.
this part of vezos post does not read as genuine.)
-points out cantrip was scum in his last 5 games
posts re: cantrip are mostly based on meta.
245: "I kinda want to move my vote to grape, but Cantrip keeps doing these things that just more and more scummy."
295-298: he and iso associate ka with grape
331: votes rez:
-"I think this is a reasonable lynch although I'm not convinced he is scum."
-currently there are 3 votes on me:
-KA (318: basically naked)
-Grapefruit (149: "I just don't get his focus this game")
-Bur (26 "#25, which felt really awkward")
336: town meta read on grape, "middle of the road" "I could go for lynching him if it comes to that, but I'd rather try rezombied first" "I'm bad at reading grape so I just kinda assume he is town and work from there"
438: votes grapefruit: not feeling terry. grapes claim is dubious, but "not really that bad" " I'd still rather lynch cantrip or rezomb."
450: defends grape against cantrips questions
453: "I'm still gathering support to lynch [cantrip], not sure why you think I should stop when I don't really consider any of the big wagons even close to as scummy as you. I won't try to push a case I don't believe in."
-emphasis mine
457: more meta about cantrip "I'm voting grape at the moment and trying to push my real read. You damn well now that a wagon can form hours before the deadline so I'm still giving my best to push the game in the direction I want to."
484: votes terry:
-"I'd prefer gan too, but I'm not feeling either terry or grape."
509: unvotes
-"I'm not feeling this wagon either."
-tries to get terry to name someone to vote besides grape.
521: defends grape, defends terry, unconvinced on both. "I'd rather lynch someone else, but I will vote one of them before the deadline. Probably the one with more votes on him."
532: votes terry, justified by just wanting to lynch someone
624: votes grape:
-"I just want a lynch right now and I will figure things out later. I have some suspicions avout the scum team, but I gotta see a flip before I decide on things. Terry is not happening even though I think that is the superior lynch."
So, clears grape based on meta, "pushes cantrip" based on meta, shows no real reads based on interaction in game. talks about wanting to push cantrrip, but doesnt, and wagon hops back and forth until the end of the day.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I am pretty sure wuffles is opposed to Godfathers.
@highroller: All of those are true points, but none of them make me scum. I've been wrong about my reads. I flipflopped between terry and grapefruit at the end of the last day, because I was insecure about my reads. None of the things you enumerated show in any way I'm scum.
Over defensiveness is not a scum tell, having bad reads is not a scum tell. I guess you have a point about me defending grape, but it was due to my misguided reads.
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I thought I saw something last night that made me not want to kill vezo, but I just read his ISO and couldn’t find anything. Maybe it was something grape said.
In addition to at least two-thirds of the mafia members clearly not wanting a mass claim, we know that the mafia have roles themselves, and that by forcing them to claim, they must either claim their own role, which we can use to pinpoint their mafia status like we did with Grapefruit21, or they will be forced to make up a role, in which we might catch them in a lie.
I believe we should role claim in reverse numerical order according to the player list at the start of the thread, starting with ganderin_dan and ending with Iso.
I'll just point out that there are at least two rather major differences in circumstances from yesterday vs. today as far as the benefits of a mass claim. Namely that people have had one night to utilize their roles which potentially catches Mafia in lies when the time comes for them to claim roles/actions - we've already seen Iso purportedly attempting this on Az - and that would not have been the case on D1. But more significantly, there's only one Mafia left. We have an 8-1 numerical advantage, and the benefits of coordination would seem at this point to greatly outweigh the risks of what this one lone Mafia might be able to do with that knowledge.
I'm still just saying that from a completely logical perspective, not because it's the "fun" thing to do.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Well I already claimed. However, one of our potential suspects is implying he’s holding info (Az), which unfortunately means he should claim late at the same time gives him more info to craft his claim if he’s scum. I really think whoever is holding potentially incriminating evidence should have claimed already making the mass claim a bit less attractive. I do have an idea though. Can whoever is land claim?
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Highroller is town for obvious reasons.
Terry is almost certainly town for vigging bur.
Rezombied is probably town cause grapefruit hounded him all day.
Iso is also pretty town for going after grape so much yesterday.
I think the scum is in {Az, Axelrod, gd}
@highroller : It is not obvious why you think I'm scum and there's no way I can defend myself from claims of being obvious scum.
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Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
Like, they could have picked him completely randomly. That is possible. They could have picked him because they didn't know him at all and hoped his choices would be the least informed of anyone's. I suppose something like that is possible too. But I find it interesting.
Vote: Ganderin Dan
So that's not a lot of help....
I think I'm going to start with the smaller posts. Maybe three quotes at a time or something.
Re: Highroller's Goblins. We know HR is Town. We know neither of the dead Mafia had anything to do with the graveyard or those Goblins. So if the scum had anything to do with the Graveyard/Goblin then it's exactly the last scum who does/did it. I do not believe, however, that the mod. would make a Townie role whos function was to only help the scum. By providing them with the fodder for whatever function the scum role has. That's just a little too bastardy for me. I could believe that the Town and Scum could both be given roles that use the Graveyard/Goblin, but the issue there is, how would that work? What's the priority? If the The Town and the Scum both want to dig up that Goblin, who gets it? It's kind of muddy and creates timing/priority issues that I don't like. And that in turn suggests to me that, in fact, the role that's doing it is simply another Townie role. That's simpler and just makes more sense.
Actually, I left confirmed town alive because I don't have a NK, but way to OMGUS. My points from yesterday regarding your play being hypocritical and extremely risky for a townie still stand. If we hadn't taken out Grape, you probably would have wound up roleblocked, and it's some kind of Christmas miracle you didn't get redirected by Bur since you were literally the only person who declared that you had a confirmable power role yesterday, IIRC.
So I guess we're lucky, but I still don't understand how on the one hand you berate the town for sharing unnecessary role information, and then the same exact day do that exact same thing in both a self-serving and ultimately pointless fashion where the only effect was to help the mafia identify you had a power role they could screw with, and not to clear you. So pardon me for seriously eyebrowing you for that, among your other issues.
Townie power roles sometimes act the same way as mafia, because they also feel like they have something to hide and/or get upset about people putting them in a position to have to spill their info, and because of that they wind up giving off the same tells as a mafia would. That seems to be what happened here, and one of the only people I've met who can accurately distinguish between those two groups of people was Iso in his prime.
I wouldn't make any assumptions regarding the alignment of HR's pairing, either way. Better to trust in analysis.
All I know is that the last game I was in where I made more than 3 posts in a row I got hit with a spam warning, so, now I don't do that anymore.
Yes, well, *cough*, you are a bastard mod. so, suggesting that it's a role that you might design is not exactly detracting from my point.
Technically, I don't know Wuffles tendencies on such things either, so, yes, it's possible, but I will assume no bastard-mod tendencies until shown otherwise.
As for whether I'm correct about what the design would be, well, *cough* let me refer you to the discussion I had with Cantripmancer about what made sense for GF's role as a scum role and just point out that I was 100% correct.
Welp, there goes my theory. How did Az of all people manage to derp clear himself? I am pretty sure that if he was on the scumteam he would have read Bur's role at least once or realised that this is not how it works.
That leaves Axelrod and Ganderin and axelrod is bringing some mad theory crafting here which doesn't really benefit him as scum.
So
vote ganderin_dan
I guess. Can you claim quickly so we get that out of the way?
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Bur's ability for anyone who didn't read. I just find it impossible that Az as mafia reads Bur's role as a simple redirector and doesn't even realise it doesn't do anything against non-killing actions. I guess he can try to woo us intentionally, but I highly doubt Az tries something like this as scum and the delivery also felt natural.
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That also slightly further solidifies Terry as town as opposed to killing Bur for town cred as mafia, I think, since it lightly implies the existence of a townie-controlled vig that Bur did not wish the mafia to have the chance to redirect with this.
I only did some light review over the Night, so I'll dig into it now that we have two flips. Double interaction analysis is delicious. The only thing I decided overnight is that Iso's approach is probably just his usual town "rebel without a cause" shtick.
@Terry: I don't see how that clears me?
@vezok: uhh, what do you mean "doesn't even realise it doesn't do anything against non-killing actions." It only works on non-killing actions.
Who targeted me last Night? That was...an odd choice.
Az, what happened to you last Night?
I don't know that I agree that KA pointing out Grapefruit's "enemy" clause is necessarily clearing, but it does look better for him.
Waiting for Az's response before I say more.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Also, there is a thing that I'll be telling you guys about at some later point. That's all I'm going to say atm though.
I received no communications from the mod last night regarding anything happening to me.
That said, I'm more inclined to lynch Axelrod or Az over ganderin_dan at this point, but I'm not opposed to a massclaim.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Also Bur had a quest and if it's anything like mine, his ability probably gets upgraded after consuming the shot.
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Hey vezok. Why are you pushing dan to claim quickly? He's nowhere near lynch threshold, and we have plenty of time.
By my PoE him and axelrod are the only ones that have any real chance to be mafia. I already think axelrod might not be mafia just due to posting reasonable stuff. For example, I don't think the last scum comes into today with an idea about how the person who took the dead goblin is almost certainly town. It serves no purpose for mafia and just helps reduce the PoE even further.
So dan is practically the odd one out from all the people and I don't really see how he isn't at the very least one of the top contenders for lynching today. I don't really feel like we have to wait for a week before we get a claim. To be fair, I don't think there's any claim that could convince me he is town so it doesn't really matter when he claims.
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Also, I've some basis to believe that Dan is not, in fact, the last Mafia. This is not a hard and fast clear by any stretch of the imagination. It involves some guesswork, but it's in keeping with some of my ideas about this game.
Similarly, first "serious" vote from Moos12 (now Azrael) is a slight + for him.
Neither of these is anything like a solid clear, but, you know, one data point.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
So, what are we looking for, exactly? A guy who tried to defend Grape during day one? Because you did that.
Someone whom Grapefruit21 defended? Because he did that.
A guy who probably wouldn't vote Grape until just about the very end of day when he reluctantly jumped on the bandwagon? Because you did that.
A guy who tried to attack rezombied while Grapefruit21 was doing so? Because you did that.
A guy who acted overly defensive and threatened when suspicion was cast on him? Because you did that - by your own admission.
Oh wait, the mafia could communicate during the day. So might we be looking for someone who pivots positions on a topic during the day - someone who starts out with a stance on a topic and then suddenly switching gears to shift to a position that matched Grapefruit21's position on the same topic? Because you did that too:
I challenge anyone to read your interactions with Grapefruit21 yesterday and not be suspicious, and yet you're trying to act like nothing you did yesterday should give anyone the slightest hint of concern? Yeah, comfortable with my vote being where it is.
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*Slow clap*
No, because, in your defense, you expressed that it was probably beneficial to the town before.
Anyway, yeah, we should DEFINITELY mass claim.
In addition to at least two-thirds of the mafia members clearly not wanting a mass claim, we know that the mafia have roles themselves, and that by forcing them to claim, they must either claim their own role, which we can use to pinpoint their mafia status like we did with Grapefruit21, or they will be forced to make up a role, in which we might catch them in a lie.
I believe we should role claim in reverse numerical order according to the player list at the start of the thread, starting with ganderin_dan and ending with Iso.
Other thoughts:
1. I'm going to guess the last role is the Godfather, unless someone knows of any other common mafia roles it would more likely be instead.
2. It doesn't, so I don't know where Terry's coming from either.
3. Terry should not be regarded as cleared. Bur's lynch was inevitable. Throwing Bur under the bus was therefore the only logical play of the remaining mafia member. If said mafia member were to have access to a nightkill ability, Bur would be the logical option to use it on. Also, Terry only joined the bandwagon on Grapefruit when it became clear it was between Grape and himself. Both of these actions would be performed by Terry irrespective of alignment, and therefore he should not get a pass.
4. rezombied is highly unlikely to be mafia at this point. I would say I am also. I doubt that Iso is mafia given that he voted Grapefruit prior to the bandwagon really picking up steam.
5. Arguments about behavior in previous mafia games are totally worthless
Significant usage yesterday was against Cantripmancer, after which it was agreed that Cantripmancer behaves the same way whether he’s town or mafia, resulting in one person inviting for him and the other person continuing to maintain his vote for unrelated reasons (specifically vezokpiraka); and to defend Grapefruit21 (also by vezokpiraka), and Grapefruit ended up being mafia. It was also employed by vezokpiraka to defend himself against rezombied, after which Grapefruit21 attempted to argue that rezombied was mafia because he didn't care about this argument.
So I’m going to go ahead and ignore any future arguments about previous behavior in mafia games. It has granted no one clairvoyance enough to find the mafia’s hidden fortress, and analyzing behavior in this game proved sufficient to lynch Grapefruit21.
Not to mention it seems really obvious to me that if the mafia know you’re all going to look at their previous games, then you’re basically announcing to them exactly how to throw you off their scent.
6. Axelrod, why’d you post this yesterday?
i dont think grape gives up both of his buddies in this post. kinda wine, but thats just my thought on it.
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vezok would rather lynch someone else, but only voted for myself, grape, cantrip, and terry (and bur in rvs) yesterday so lets get into that:
115: votes cantrip:
-KA voted cantrip 5 posts prior (where KA votes cantrip because of meta)
-puts me at 60% town, calls cantrips vote on me in 31 opportunistic
-calls cantrips play shallow and non-commital and full of nothing.
(a reread of cantrups posts up to this point shows:
51: looks good, questions at dan moos and grape are solid
91: responds reasonably to grape and moo, the stuff between he and highroller makes my eyes glaze over though
105: pushes grape along with some meta and highroller stuff.
this part of vezos post does not read as genuine.)
-points out cantrip was scum in his last 5 games
posts re: cantrip are mostly based on meta.
245: "I kinda want to move my vote to grape, but Cantrip keeps doing these things that just more and more scummy."
295-298: he and iso associate ka with grape
331: votes rez:
-"I think this is a reasonable lynch although I'm not convinced he is scum."
-currently there are 3 votes on me:
-KA (318: basically naked)
-Grapefruit (149: "I just don't get his focus this game")
-Bur (26 "#25, which felt really awkward")
336: town meta read on grape, "middle of the road" "I could go for lynching him if it comes to that, but I'd rather try rezombied first" "I'm bad at reading grape so I just kinda assume he is town and work from there"
438: votes grapefruit: not feeling terry. grapes claim is dubious, but "not really that bad" " I'd still rather lynch cantrip or rezomb."
450: defends grape against cantrips questions
453: "I'm still gathering support to lynch [cantrip], not sure why you think I should stop when I don't really consider any of the big wagons even close to as scummy as you. I won't try to push a case I don't believe in."
-emphasis mine
457: more meta about cantrip "I'm voting grape at the moment and trying to push my real read. You damn well now that a wagon can form hours before the deadline so I'm still giving my best to push the game in the direction I want to."
484: votes terry:
-"I'd prefer gan too, but I'm not feeling either terry or grape."
509: unvotes
-"I'm not feeling this wagon either."
-tries to get terry to name someone to vote besides grape.
521: defends grape, defends terry, unconvinced on both. "I'd rather lynch someone else, but I will vote one of them before the deadline. Probably the one with more votes on him."
532: votes terry, justified by just wanting to lynch someone
624: votes grape:
-"I just want a lynch right now and I will figure things out later. I have some suspicions avout the scum team, but I gotta see a flip before I decide on things. Terry is not happening even though I think that is the superior lynch."
So, clears grape based on meta, "pushes cantrip" based on meta, shows no real reads based on interaction in game. talks about wanting to push cantrrip, but doesnt, and wagon hops back and forth until the end of the day.
Vote: vezokpiraka
I doubt there's a Godfather, Highroller.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
That being said, I doubt Kami comes in and calls into doubt a very serious flavor flaw in Grapes role that turns out to be true.
Which is why I don't think we have a Godfather.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@highroller: All of those are true points, but none of them make me scum. I've been wrong about my reads. I flipflopped between terry and grapefruit at the end of the last day, because I was insecure about my reads. None of the things you enumerated show in any way I'm scum.
Over defensiveness is not a scum tell, having bad reads is not a scum tell. I guess you have a point about me defending grape, but it was due to my misguided reads.
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I'm still just saying that from a completely logical perspective, not because it's the "fun" thing to do.