My Empoof town read is dropping a little bit. I still think he's town, but his disengagement is concerning.
If Grape is W and Osie V he might be a place to look in the lategame.
Eh. Actually I don't think that's the case here, if he knows I'm tunneling that w/w world, I don't think he tries to lynch the opposite one that I'm trying to lynch? That's kind of a weird self-centric PoV, but if feels right.
Yeah, okay. I think only way Empoof is scum is probably if we're looking at v/v here, and the disengagement is actually just 'I don't need to do anything, town is gonna clean these two up'.
Yeah, he's still just town, though he's maybe dropped below Tammy and SC in my town reads.
@Empoof I took a look at osie's scum game here and I noticed that both members of your team were in it - what do they think of osie's alignment if it's different from yours?
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@Voxx Tubba posted at me with the "good ol' town grape" thing and initially I thought that was a scummy read (because I wasn't being my normal self) but his tone felt right. Then he stopped posting and I don't know what to make of him.
If Osie is a wolf it's Rage and then one of Marko, Tubba, Foop. If Osie is a villager I'll have to completely reevaluate but I'd start by making sure I actually like my town reads on you and the worst because the core of SC and Tammy is fine. I don't have a team in mind but I'd start by lynching one of Marko/Tubba and seeing where things go. Gun to head Foop+Marko and Tubba but I'd be lost if Osie flipped town.
My team is roughly about as engaged as I am. None of us have read beyond pg 1 of each others games.
Tubba's showing activity consistent with most of his past games, to be fair. Got anything else that suggests anything about him?
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Voxx - do you kind of feel like there’s a little part of you telling you that Empoof is scum but you like his posts so much in general that you don’t want him to be scum because it might break your heart a little? You maybe don’t think like that, but I have wondered if he’s pulling a tom on me. The times when tom has played at my homesite and been scum, I’ve liked his posts so much I’ve written him off as town. I think it’s around day three when I realize that I probably should look deeper.
Anyway, I told my team last night that I wasn’t even going to look into this feeling unless I just didn’t think three scum felt like they existed in the other six, but waking up to you waxing a bit confusedly about Empoof makes me feel on the right track with you in that dangerously egotistical he’s thinking similar thoughts to me at the same time type of way. I’m not really caring about the disengagement thing, mine is more that there were a couple posts eod yesterday that pinged and the concern I’m getting tom’d but overall I just really like his posts and hope my first instinct was right.
Titus - I don’t know. I was going to say that grape might not be scummy because upon being asked if his team had any thoughts he mentioned them being just as disengaged as he is, which I thought if he’s s I’m he’d probably make up some thoughts to make it look like he was town, and then I looked at who his team was and I don’t think it’d be believable any way. Regardless, I don’t really have a grasp on the game to answer and don’t know if I could even if I did.
Oh Empoof - I was looking at the lineup for a music festival I’m going to and father John misty is there. What songs should I listen to as an introduction?
Oh Empoof - I was looking at the lineup for a music festival I’m going to and father John misty is there. What songs should I listen to as an introduction?
Seeing as he's got a new album out I'd suggest to you to go listen to Mr Tillman from it. God's Favourite Customer and Please Don't Die are probably other good ideas.
Tammy, on a scale of 1 to 10 how aware are you of what's happened Day 2?
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Also, I agree with the "thinking things at the same time" thing. A good way to earn trust is by mirroring, or showing the same thoughts or behaviours as others.
Also, does seriously no one think that Grape or Osie are Town? (except themselves)
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Also, I agree with the "thinking things at the same time" thing. A good way to earn trust is by mirroring, or showing the same thoughts or behaviours as others.
Also, does seriously no one think that Grape or Osie are Town? (except themselves)
I think Osie is town, but in the rare event he is not, he would be trying to get lynched to protect grape.
The creature audibly sighs, and walks away from it's work. It appears to be forging a sword over a magma vent in the middle of the library
I think Grape is very likely scum here. The level of engagement just doesn't make sense otherwise. My only hesitation is that even as scum, he'd be doing something?
Osie is possibly not scum, but I'm not betting the farm anytime soon.
I'd go for Grape and give Osie a little more rope to see what they do with it. Vote Grape
I'm pseudo V/LA for about 24 hours. I'm not going to make a big fuss about it because I'm not tearing up the megabytes anyways, but if you ask me a question and I don't get back to you, that's why.
Voxx - do you kind of feel like there’s a little part of you telling you that Empoof is scum but you like his posts so much in general that you don’t want him to be scum because it might break your heart a little? You maybe don’t think like that, but I have wondered if he’s pulling a tom on me. The times when tom has played at my homesite and been scum, I’ve liked his posts so much I’ve written him off as town. I think it’s around day three when I realize that I probably should look deeper.
Anyway, I told my team last night that I wasn’t even going to look into this feeling unless I just didn’t think three scum felt like they existed in the other six, but waking up to you waxing a bit confusedly about Empoof makes me feel on the right track with you in that dangerously egotistical he’s thinking similar thoughts to me at the same time type of way. I’m not really caring about the disengagement thing, mine is more that there were a couple posts eod yesterday that pinged and the concern I’m getting tom’d but overall I just really like his posts and hope my first instinct was right.
Titus - I don’t know. I was going to say that grape might not be scummy because upon being asked if his team had any thoughts he mentioned them being just as disengaged as he is, which I thought if he’s s I’m he’d probably make up some thoughts to make it look like he was town, and then I looked at who his team was and I don’t think it’d be believable any way. Regardless, I don’t really have a grasp on the game to answer and don’t know if I could even if I did.
Thought I had something else.
Eh?
I've come around to thinking Empoof is probbbbbably just town despite waffling on it for a bit and diving into iso's. I think you know a little bit about how I play, mostly top-down, finding town, and slowly pinning wolves into a PoE box that makes them lose motivation and become even more obvious, where their only options are to try and break out of the PoE/expand it, or do crazy distancing within it that looks like obvious distancing when you know what the wolves need to do to win.
Almost everyone in the PoE has pushed against Empoof.
If I'm wrong about it being Grape + Osie, then yeah, Empoof gets at least possible, but I'm pretty damn sold on that, and don't really think Empoof fits as a third. If we lynch Grape and Osie and Empoof stays alive to F3 or something then yeah of course, take a look there, do your due diligence, etc.
My team and I have gone over Empoof a little, and they generally are with me that he just doesn't really fit into the likely wolves, and think that his disengagement/lack of solving fits pretty well with someone who is like 'meh, I'm okay with what's going on, town reads being town read, wolf reads being wolf read, I just don't need to put in more effort than I need to', and like... it's not really something any of us feel or do, because we're obsessive no lifers when it come to mafia but it makes sense as him feeling that way. I guess.
I didn't like how he town read me so easily based on my D1, because like... I don't think I should have been town read off that D1, especially a D1 that involved me not posting most of it because white background and light sensitivity murdered my eyeballs. I'm still a litttttle skeptical that he had the read that I was posting better here/more engaged here than I would have been after 2 wolf rands because like.... I didn't...post, and if anything I'd have thought that'd be indicative of that very thing, but I kind of like the comparison and thought process, just disagree with the conclusion, I guess.
This isn't to Tammy directly, but the Bolded part is the kind of meandering thought and individual thinking on display that I think Tammy can't really fake well as a wolf. It's the kind of thing I've been looking for, and that I locked her in on in our Qualifier, and it just clicked for me as I read that, and she's just 100% town here.
I somehow suspect you're going to be left alive if you're town, given how tunneled you are on a pairing that I don't think is at all possible to exist.
If I'm any good at this game, I'm dying tonight.
Lmao.
Nice Soft RE.
This isn't really related to...anything, I just went to Marko's last post (which was at EoD1, and skimmed through that EoD again, and just now saw this for first time. Made me laugh.
Problems with this vote count? PM me or DM me on Discord for the fastest response. Posting something in-thread will probably get my attention eventually.
Not Voting - 4 (Tammy, ScarletCelestial, Foopme, MarkoRaj)
Weird.
The four people not voting might be my top 4 town reads.
I'm voting my strongest scum read, along with my next three scum reads, and yet I'm okay with that, because it feels like wolves are shook by the PoE being correct, tried to distance, but their hearts aren't really in it. Wind out of their sails, etc.
I keep reading and re-reading those Grape/Osie cross-votes and interactions, and every time I want to just set one of them on fire as soon as the other flips wolf.
@Empoof I took a look at osie's scum game here and I noticed that both members of your team were in it - what do they think of osie's alignment if it's different from yours?
@Tammy are you seeing father john misty in seattle?? Because I'm seeing him on Saturday too...
Listen to "hollywood forever cemetary sings". I really like the songs "When you're smiling and astride me" and "The Night Josh Tillman Came To Our Apartment" from honeybear, "Pure Comedy" "When the God of Love Returns There’ll Be Hell to Pay" and "So I’m Growing Old on Magic Mountain" from Pure Comedy, and "Please Don't Die" and "We're Only People (And There's Not Much Anyone Can Do About That)" from God's Favorite Customer.
there's quite a lot to like about Tammy's last post. I feel like this kind of townblock should be deepwolf indicative but I actually vibe town just gelling really well. We could just use the lynch now IMO.
Feel like a lot of negative/busying things are happening around this game.
My reads are basically exactly the same as they've always been other than thinking Titus is weird and kind of scummy and slightly leaning ScarletCelestial more town.
My tinfoil read is around the torb slot but even then it's meh.
Kind of a weird game. But also slightly depressed. So. Could be current emotion clouding any reevaluation. Will say that of my team I'm actually the one most questioning of Osie being town or not, but end on wolf basically every time.
Feel like a lot of negative/busying things are happening around this game.
My reads are basically exactly the same as they've always been other than thinking Titus is weird and kind of scummy and slightly leaning ScarletCelestial more town.
My tinfoil read is around the torb slot but even then it's meh.
Kind of a weird game. But also slightly depressed. So. Could be current emotion clouding any reevaluation. Will say that of my team I'm actually the one most questioning of Osie being town or not, but end on wolf basically every time.
Man, I'm sorry dude. Mafia is just a game, take care of your mental health and your life above all else. You have friends if/when you need them.
I'm not strictly against an Osie lynch, but I'm going to make people fight for it.
And I'm still lynching Grapefruit 100% tomorrow regardless of whether or not Osie is town or scum. I and my team spent a ton of time on Grapefruit last night because of the way there was a wagon on him, and then dissipated, and because I couldn't really remember a single post he made D1 through my blinding migraine and blurry vision.
Came out of that ISO pretty locked in on him being a wolf, between the three of us.
Like, I actually considered faking a cop check on him but decided that was stupid.
My main problem is I don't really /learn/ anything new from Grape flipping the wolf I'm sure he is. It almost makes me want to lynch Osie just so we know if this is w/v or w/w, and can sift through the game accordingly.
I do acknowledge it's frustrating, and like...sorry about the wolf rand I guess?
But this is just another example of why I think you're a wolf, I've been tunneling you with certainty all day, calling you w/w with the person you're voting, and you're... kind of just frustrated at me being certain, instead of actively trying to figure out my alignment, calling me a wolf, etc.
This just doesn't at all feel like how you'd be playing this as town in this spot, disengaged or not.
Like. I made 20-something posts on D1, and they were all pushing Ara, who flips town.
I come into today, and gun for your head all day, calling you w/w with the person you're voting, but vote you over him.
Why is there no paranoia? You were in Mistborn with me, where I wrecked the ***** out of you as a wolf. Where is the passion, the fire? Like almost everyone you think is scum is voting you, yet you feel like you're dead inside, and going through the motions.
I just can't see this coming from you as town given all of above. You aren't trying to solve, you aren't trying to galvanize people or convince them in any way, you aren't bothered remotely at all of your scum reads piling onto you. Your mindset and reactions just don't match the gamestate at all.
It feels like you've accepted you're going down, and are in some weird mixture of trying to distance from partners (I bet both of your partners are in your scum reads), and avoiding spew by shutting down any kind of complex interaction.
I'm sorry if I'm tilting or upsetting you here, I've tried to work with you and get you to give me something and you just... haven't.
If it helps, consider it respect for your town game, that I'm so sure you're a wolf because I don't see any glimpse of your usual ability on display here.
Like, I just went through your ISO and ctrl+f'd my name.
You have no progression on me at all. You've never talked about a read on me, but yet you slot me in as reasonably town. Why?
I was the driving force behind a mislynch on D1. I've been tunneling you today. You know I'm a damn good and charismatic wolf who is capable of winning through world building, yet I'm like...linking you to the person you're voting, and this isn't ringing any alarms for you?
I just don't think it's a real progression, I don't think your reads list in general is a real reads list. You've talked about or explained under half your reads.
If you are town here, I need to get there on you dude. We mislynched D1. We lost a PR N1. If you're town, I feel like you're almost certainly going to be the lynch today, and I just... need more signs of life from you. Osie's going to die at some point, be it today or tomorrow, yes, yes, but like...
Throw me a bone here. Talk about why you have me as town, and why you aren't paranoid that I'm basically open wolfing and driving mislynches into the ground D1 and D2 here.
Talk to me about Osie more in depth, and who you think fits as partners of his and why?
I do think you're likely a wolf here, and probably a wolf with the rest of your team squarely in the PoE, and that's why you have so little WIM. But if this isn't the case, if you're actually town, I'm willing to listen, I'm willing to re-evaluate, but I need to see something from you, anything, that looks like you have a town spark in you.
I think I've decided the only Father John Misty song I actually like is Mr Tillman.
Empoof's team wanting osie dead is probably really important... though I'd like to know how osie seems more similar to their scum game.
Possibly V/LA until Tuesday. Going to my Nan's and they still have no WiFi. Might be coming back Monday or the WiFi might be fixed whilst I'm there, hence the possibly.
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Thanks for the father John misty recs! The music festival I’m going to is in Chicago. Also I’m very sorry to hear about your grandma. I went through the same thing a few months back, and it was a hard time. Virtual hugs.
My first instinct on grape might have been right after all, that reaction to voxx was just so flat.
Anyway i have a few other things to respond to later but I realized I’m running late actually so later.
Titus - to actually answer that who’s the third question. Osie/trob had interactions with grape that pinged, so if he flipped scum I’d look into those a bit more. There’s a part of me that is holding onto osie being town though.
Oh SC - I’d say I’m about 5% on knowing what’s happened today. I’ve skimmed most posts, so I have a base idea but haven’t read posts in depth.
I feel like that means the best thing for me to do is go re-read the game again, so I can probably just come to the same conclusions!
I rarely reread because of that. I also don't read when I sub in, just occasionally ask for relevant claims. Avoids groupthink.
On a more serious note, I don't like the stalled nature either.
It suggests that a) Grape is town so scum dgaf or b) grape is scum but Osie is the only wagon they feel they can swing.
You're missing another narrative!
Both of them are wolves, they tried to distance, it backfired, and they lost all wim and are rolling over.
That narrative is unlikely as Grape and Osie either pick a hard bus route or a hard defense route. The votes yesterday also don't suggest Osie with Grape.
Empoof is understandably not engaged in the game with RL things.
SC is v/la.
Marko hasn't posted at all on D2.
Osie is V/LA.
Tubba is V/LA and only made 1-2 posts on D2.
Grapefruit is... to be charitable let's just call it very disengaged. (Or a wolf in anti-spew mode).
TW and Titus are 'here', but getting anything resembling depth/detail out of them is like pulling teeth.
I guess I can try and engage with Titus about why I think Osie/Grape are w/w later today, but feels an awful lot like we're just in an echo-chambery holding pattern right now, and will be tomorrow too. I see very few worlds where we don't lynch one of Osie/Grape today, and the other tomorrow.
And I mean...I think they're both wolves so I'm functionally okay with that, just doesn't feel like many people are all that engaged with the game right now.
I understand maybe this is hypocritical given how little I was into the game on D1, but my eyeballs felt like they were melting out of my skull, so there's a reason for that heh.
Hate to be that guy but I think I called the crickets territory thing a few pages ago. This is gonna be boring as ***** until we know of our obvwolves are wolves.
feeling like maybe a lost I wrote didn't get posted oe maybe I forgot to submit it or something. anyway. who are we lunching out of {osie, grape} and why are they more likely to flip scum than the other in a vacuum?
I have a feeling in this but I'm in confbiasy land
Empoof is understandably not engaged in the game with RL things.
SC is v/la.
Marko hasn't posted at all on D2.
Osie is V/LA.
Tubba is V/LA and only made 1-2 posts on D2.
Grapefruit is... to be charitable let's just call it very disengaged. (Or a wolf in anti-spew mode).
TW and Titus are 'here', but getting anything resembling depth/detail out of them is like pulling teeth.
I guess I can try and engage with Titus about why I think Osie/Grape are w/w later today, but feels an awful lot like we're just in an echo-chambery holding pattern right now, and will be tomorrow too. I see very few worlds where we don't lynch one of Osie/Grape today, and the other tomorrow.
And I mean...I think they're both wolves so I'm functionally okay with that, just doesn't feel like many people are all that engaged with the game right now.
I understand maybe this is hypocritical given how little I was into the game on D1, but my eyeballs felt like they were melting out of my skull, so there's a reason for that heh.
I don't think there's little said, but little fresh that's said. I don't feel Osie is scum based on play or votes. Best play is to keep town united, lynch Grape then argue Tubba or Osie tomorrow.
Tammy, maybe I missed it but did you answer what conditions you needed to read me?
I didn’t. Did you ever answer who your rock was this game?
I’m not going to tell you the little tings I think I’ve picked up that are a decent indicator if you’re town, but generally I think the way you respond to pressure or a mounting wagon is indicative as well as the interactions with and about flipped scum. No wagon has been built on you, and I’m not the type make a wagon just to get a reaction. No scum have flipped, so that’s not there to analyze.
Someone once told me that they work around you to get a read on you, and I’m kinda testing that out here. I’ve rarely straight up town read you when you’ve been town, and even when you e been scum and I thought you were I’d take a long time considering because you used to get mislynched so often. I don’t know if you still do, but the basic idea with working around you is to not spend so much time fixated on getting a read on you when it’s a weakness. Note things that are notable if they occur, but worry about my reads elsewhere and then see how you fit into the puzzle. It’s probably not perfect, but my old way wasn’t working so I’m trying something new.
Voxx - I don’t think I worded what I was trying to say yesterday morning. Im not very clear when groggy. But it’s really not important I don’t think. It was mostly a musing.
I thought I realized a smoking gun earlier because it dawned on me that tubba was voting grape and the last ting I remembered was him calling grape good ol town grape, which for some reason my team thinks spewed grape clear if tubba scum, so I thoight his progression was all wrong, but going back to his iso he started dropping that read later on, so nevermind that.
There’s also a team note of possible unaligned with osie/grape. Though that might have been a misremembered point. I’m moslty putting this here for a reminder for myself and team to go check that because I can’t find it in notes and I don’t want it to get buried and forgotten.
@Troba well that's good. Doesn't help me solve you but it's good.
@RE the thing I was pinged by and 53 would be explained by general nervousness rather than scumminess.
Well um oops. My early ping on grape started with this post and it was due to me misreading troba for tubba and think g he was calling out someone for an early rvs post and that felt weird and like some maybe early distancing with tubba especially when he said he stopped reading my posts because egg talk and limited time. The whole thing just felt wrong and whelp his early game doesn’t look so weird when I’m reading the correct name.
Grape - earlier in this game you had some interaction with tubba on his ability to read you, what do you think of his progression on you?
Hey Tammy! I'd appreciate if you could give the Osie/Grape stuff from earlier this day a closer look, from Osie's side especially.
As well as look at my posts a bit closer regarding his mindset regarding it.
I'm pretty dialed in on Grape being a wolf, as is my entire team, so we've been combing through thread looking for partners, as we're like at 97%+ certainty on that read. (More specifically, they're at 90%ish, and I'm at pretty much 100%)
Starting from that baseline, like.
I'm town.
We think you are solidly town.
We think SC is very likely to be town, but there's some team tinfoil if it turns out to be Osie is town and this isn't w/w. I think they're being dumb and she's just town though, but it's worth considering late game if things don't quite fit and this is w/v.
Empoof is probably not a third in Grape/Osie w/w worlds, and we don't really think he's a wolf with Grape regardless. There is also Ara + her team's read on him which we take somewhat seriously given the respect we have for Lissa and Visor as players, and think he's probably just town here and would never really reconsider that until F3.
We're /pretty/ sure that Marko is not w/w with Grape, and liked some of his D1 posts independently of that, but it's not as strong of a town read as the previous three.
Trob and TW both voted/pushed Grape, and we spent some time combing over the early D1 interactions and decided they were probably just a little bit too weird to be w/w. I think the slot is pretty clear if Grape/Osie is w/w, but there's some hesitation if it turns out to be w/v - but given I don't think it is w/v, its not where I'm all that interested in looking right now, and probably just is town regardless.
That leaves Grape, Osie, Tubba, and Titus.
My team kind of just wants to slap a 'solved' stamp on the game and power lynch them in that order, and are rolling their eyes at me for still putting this much effort into things, but given you're citing unalignments in this cluster that would mean there'd have to be wolves outside it, I want you to look back at the interactions and my earlier posts and evaluate given that if you could.
I really think that Grape/osie crossvote and interaction is one of the fakest things I've ever seen in a mafia game. Just reeks of scum theater, and a lot of Osie's posts felt like scum complaining, and his mindset just wasn't meshing with the gamestate. He was complaining about the game playing 'sheep the lurkers', when we were both voting for Grapefruit along with him at the time, and the rest of my scum team minus him was his exact same scum team PoE. It just didn't/doesn't feel like he was critically thinking about the game, and it's a lot more likely to come from a wolf.
I acknowledge it's possible I can be conf-biasing a tunnel into the interaction, and want more sets of reasonable eyes (like, oh, you and your whole team) to spend some time on it and look at it from the perspective of Grape very likely wolf, and see what they think about Osie given that.
Tubba and Titus both fit with those two as a team relatively well, and aren't town reads. My team thinks it's more likely to be Tubba, and I /guess/ I agree, but Titus pushing Grape but shielding Osie has me squinting pretty aggressively if that turns out to be w/w.
But yeah, like. This is not a mechanical claim or anything, I think it's pretty clear I'm VT - but my team and I sunk a ton of time into Grape and his ISO and read through other games to meta dive a bit, and he's just never a villager here, so we used that read to form the rest of our reads.
I wouldn’t take my team tights on the unalignments very seriously right now. I don’t think that tubba post spews grape town for instance, just kinda putting that thought there for completeness.
And the osie thug might be a misrembrance, so hold on that one.
My goal for tonight is to get through both their ISO’s. Going deeper will probably wait for tomorrow and weekend.
Oh I would be surprised to see a grape/titus team though. I haven’t seen titus!scum in over a year, so this meta could be wrong but this particular sort of bus would surprise me coming from titus.
The Titus read is the way she tried to tie me to Grape as a partner, then goaded me into voting Grape with her (this was at start of day when I came in blazing right at Titus).
She's not a town read independently, and that felt an awful lot like trying to tie me to someone she knows is a wolf.
Not a lock, but not something I'm willing to hard clear her for, etc.
I think it's most likely to just be Grape/Osie/Tubba, but there's some small things that make me squint at that, too.
I'll look at that tomorrow. I'm probably not going to make it through the ossie I was planning to get through. Headed to bed soon, and I got distracted.
I did make it through grape, and eh I'm not feeling the super scum you are. Today is super disengaged and his response to you last night was very wooden and I didn't like his end of day yesterday, but I'm nowhere near the level of confidence you have that he'll flip scum. Scum team doesn't have him as a strong scumread either except by poe.
There's also concern about the gamestate right now and a concern that this isn't a gamestate that is due to scum just giving up. Just a general observation.
Oh Grape - If you read ossie as strongly scum as you do, why isn't that pulling you into the game some?
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If Grape is W and Osie V he might be a place to look in the lategame.
Eh. Actually I don't think that's the case here, if he knows I'm tunneling that w/w world, I don't think he tries to lynch the opposite one that I'm trying to lynch? That's kind of a weird self-centric PoV, but if feels right.
Yeah, okay. I think only way Empoof is scum is probably if we're looking at v/v here, and the disengagement is actually just 'I don't need to do anything, town is gonna clean these two up'.
Yeah, he's still just town, though he's maybe dropped below Tammy and SC in my town reads.
Voxxicus
Tammy
SC
Empoof
Marko
Trob
Titus
Tubba
Osie
Grape
Tubba's showing activity consistent with most of his past games, to be fair. Got anything else that suggests anything about him?
Voxx - do you kind of feel like there’s a little part of you telling you that Empoof is scum but you like his posts so much in general that you don’t want him to be scum because it might break your heart a little? You maybe don’t think like that, but I have wondered if he’s pulling a tom on me. The times when tom has played at my homesite and been scum, I’ve liked his posts so much I’ve written him off as town. I think it’s around day three when I realize that I probably should look deeper.
Anyway, I told my team last night that I wasn’t even going to look into this feeling unless I just didn’t think three scum felt like they existed in the other six, but waking up to you waxing a bit confusedly about Empoof makes me feel on the right track with you in that dangerously egotistical he’s thinking similar thoughts to me at the same time type of way. I’m not really caring about the disengagement thing, mine is more that there were a couple posts eod yesterday that pinged and the concern I’m getting tom’d but overall I just really like his posts and hope my first instinct was right.
Titus - I don’t know. I was going to say that grape might not be scummy because upon being asked if his team had any thoughts he mentioned them being just as disengaged as he is, which I thought if he’s s I’m he’d probably make up some thoughts to make it look like he was town, and then I looked at who his team was and I don’t think it’d be believable any way. Regardless, I don’t really have a grasp on the game to answer and don’t know if I could even if I did.
Thought I had something else.
Right now, I highly favor Grape+Tubba based on votes but I waffle as to the third.
Seeing as he's got a new album out I'd suggest to you to go listen to Mr Tillman from it. God's Favourite Customer and Please Don't Die are probably other good ideas.
Tammy, on a scale of 1 to 10 how aware are you of what's happened Day 2?
Also, does seriously no one think that Grape or Osie are Town? (except themselves)
I think Osie is town, but in the rare event he is not, he would be trying to get lynched to protect grape.
I think Grape is very likely scum here. The level of engagement just doesn't make sense otherwise. My only hesitation is that even as scum, he'd be doing something?
Osie is possibly not scum, but I'm not betting the farm anytime soon.
I'd go for Grape and give Osie a little more rope to see what they do with it.
Vote Grape
I'm pseudo V/LA for about 24 hours. I'm not going to make a big fuss about it because I'm not tearing up the megabytes anyways, but if you ask me a question and I don't get back to you, that's why.
Explain the osie read?
Eh?
I've come around to thinking Empoof is probbbbbably just town despite waffling on it for a bit and diving into iso's. I think you know a little bit about how I play, mostly top-down, finding town, and slowly pinning wolves into a PoE box that makes them lose motivation and become even more obvious, where their only options are to try and break out of the PoE/expand it, or do crazy distancing within it that looks like obvious distancing when you know what the wolves need to do to win.
Almost everyone in the PoE has pushed against Empoof.
If I'm wrong about it being Grape + Osie, then yeah, Empoof gets at least possible, but I'm pretty damn sold on that, and don't really think Empoof fits as a third. If we lynch Grape and Osie and Empoof stays alive to F3 or something then yeah of course, take a look there, do your due diligence, etc.
My team and I have gone over Empoof a little, and they generally are with me that he just doesn't really fit into the likely wolves, and think that his disengagement/lack of solving fits pretty well with someone who is like 'meh, I'm okay with what's going on, town reads being town read, wolf reads being wolf read, I just don't need to put in more effort than I need to', and like... it's not really something any of us feel or do, because we're obsessive no lifers when it come to mafia but it makes sense as him feeling that way. I guess.
I didn't like how he town read me so easily based on my D1, because like... I don't think I should have been town read off that D1, especially a D1 that involved me not posting most of it because white background and light sensitivity murdered my eyeballs. I'm still a litttttle skeptical that he had the read that I was posting better here/more engaged here than I would have been after 2 wolf rands because like.... I didn't...post, and if anything I'd have thought that'd be indicative of that very thing, but I kind of like the comparison and thought process, just disagree with the conclusion, I guess.
This isn't to Tammy directly, but the Bolded part is the kind of meandering thought and individual thinking on display that I think Tammy can't really fake well as a wolf. It's the kind of thing I've been looking for, and that I locked her in on in our Qualifier, and it just clicked for me as I read that, and she's just 100% town here.
Where is Marko?
Lmao.
Nice Soft RE.
This isn't really related to...anything, I just went to Marko's last post (which was at EoD1, and skimmed through that EoD again, and just now saw this for first time. Made me laugh.
osieorb18 - 2 (the worst, Grapefruit21)
Not Voting - 4 (Tammy, ScarletCelestial, Foopme, MarkoRaj)
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to majority lynch.
Day 2 ends at 6:00 PM Eastern Time on August 18th unless there is a majority lynch.
Osieorb18 is V/LA until Sunday, August 12th.
MarkoRaj has been prodded.
Problems with this vote count? PM me or DM me on Discord for the fastest response. Posting something in-thread will probably get my attention eventually.
Weird.
The four people not voting might be my top 4 town reads.
I'm voting my strongest scum read, along with my next three scum reads, and yet I'm okay with that, because it feels like wolves are shook by the PoE being correct, tried to distance, but their hearts aren't really in it. Wind out of their sails, etc.
I keep reading and re-reading those Grape/Osie cross-votes and interactions, and every time I want to just set one of them on fire as soon as the other flips wolf.
I feel like that means the best thing for me to do is go re-read the game again, so I can probably just come to the same conclusions!
I rarely reread because of that. I also don't read when I sub in, just occasionally ask for relevant claims. Avoids groupthink.
On a more serious note, I don't like the stalled nature either.
It suggests that a) Grape is town so scum dgaf or b) grape is scum but Osie is the only wagon they feel they can swing.
Everyone in my slot wants Osie's corpse.
@Tammy are you seeing father john misty in seattle?? Because I'm seeing him on Saturday too...
Listen to "hollywood forever cemetary sings". I really like the songs "When you're smiling and astride me" and "The Night Josh Tillman Came To Our Apartment" from honeybear, "Pure Comedy" "When the God of Love Returns There’ll Be Hell to Pay" and "So I’m Growing Old on Magic Mountain" from Pure Comedy, and "Please Don't Die" and "We're Only People (And There's Not Much Anyone Can Do About That)" from God's Favorite Customer.
I'm slightly obsessed with his music right now.
Also I'm not tom.
You're missing another narrative!
Both of them are wolves, they tried to distance, it backfired, and they lost all wim and are rolling over.
But I do think that was a BG soft. Just not that you were the target.
Needed to say that to SHRINK YOUR EGO a little.
there's quite a lot to like about Tammy's last post. I feel like this kind of townblock should be deepwolf indicative but I actually vibe town just gelling really well. We could just use the lynch now IMO.
Blood for the blood god etc.
Okay my real life stuff is starting to eat at me.
Grandma is dying, likely by tomorrow.
Feel like a lot of negative/busying things are happening around this game.
My reads are basically exactly the same as they've always been other than thinking Titus is weird and kind of scummy and slightly leaning ScarletCelestial more town.
My tinfoil read is around the torb slot but even then it's meh.
Kind of a weird game. But also slightly depressed. So. Could be current emotion clouding any reevaluation. Will say that of my team I'm actually the one most questioning of Osie being town or not, but end on wolf basically every time.
link didn't post so here's plaintext
I never assumed I was being saved, just that it was a funny soft.
Man, I'm sorry dude. Mafia is just a game, take care of your mental health and your life above all else. You have friends if/when you need them.
And I'm still lynching Grapefruit 100% tomorrow regardless of whether or not Osie is town or scum. I and my team spent a ton of time on Grapefruit last night because of the way there was a wagon on him, and then dissipated, and because I couldn't really remember a single post he made D1 through my blinding migraine and blurry vision.
Came out of that ISO pretty locked in on him being a wolf, between the three of us.
Like, I actually considered faking a cop check on him but decided that was stupid.
My main problem is I don't really /learn/ anything new from Grape flipping the wolf I'm sure he is. It almost makes me want to lynch Osie just so we know if this is w/v or w/w, and can sift through the game accordingly.
@Voxx that level of certainty is frustrating. But if you're willing to lynch Osie let's do that. I'm convinced he's scum here.
But this is just another example of why I think you're a wolf, I've been tunneling you with certainty all day, calling you w/w with the person you're voting, and you're... kind of just frustrated at me being certain, instead of actively trying to figure out my alignment, calling me a wolf, etc.
This just doesn't at all feel like how you'd be playing this as town in this spot, disengaged or not.
Like. I made 20-something posts on D1, and they were all pushing Ara, who flips town.
I come into today, and gun for your head all day, calling you w/w with the person you're voting, but vote you over him.
Why is there no paranoia? You were in Mistborn with me, where I wrecked the ***** out of you as a wolf. Where is the passion, the fire? Like almost everyone you think is scum is voting you, yet you feel like you're dead inside, and going through the motions.
I just can't see this coming from you as town given all of above. You aren't trying to solve, you aren't trying to galvanize people or convince them in any way, you aren't bothered remotely at all of your scum reads piling onto you. Your mindset and reactions just don't match the gamestate at all.
It feels like you've accepted you're going down, and are in some weird mixture of trying to distance from partners (I bet both of your partners are in your scum reads), and avoiding spew by shutting down any kind of complex interaction.
I'm sorry if I'm tilting or upsetting you here, I've tried to work with you and get you to give me something and you just... haven't.
If it helps, consider it respect for your town game, that I'm so sure you're a wolf because I don't see any glimpse of your usual ability on display here.
You have no progression on me at all. You've never talked about a read on me, but yet you slot me in as reasonably town. Why?
I was the driving force behind a mislynch on D1. I've been tunneling you today. You know I'm a damn good and charismatic wolf who is capable of winning through world building, yet I'm like...linking you to the person you're voting, and this isn't ringing any alarms for you?
I just don't think it's a real progression, I don't think your reads list in general is a real reads list. You've talked about or explained under half your reads.
If you are town here, I need to get there on you dude. We mislynched D1. We lost a PR N1. If you're town, I feel like you're almost certainly going to be the lynch today, and I just... need more signs of life from you. Osie's going to die at some point, be it today or tomorrow, yes, yes, but like...
Throw me a bone here. Talk about why you have me as town, and why you aren't paranoid that I'm basically open wolfing and driving mislynches into the ground D1 and D2 here.
Talk to me about Osie more in depth, and who you think fits as partners of his and why?
I do think you're likely a wolf here, and probably a wolf with the rest of your team squarely in the PoE, and that's why you have so little WIM. But if this isn't the case, if you're actually town, I'm willing to listen, I'm willing to re-evaluate, but I need to see something from you, anything, that looks like you have a town spark in you.
You're better than your play this game.
Empoof's team wanting osie dead is probably really important... though I'd like to know how osie seems more similar to their scum game.
Possibly V/LA until Tuesday. Going to my Nan's and they still have no WiFi. Might be coming back Monday or the WiFi might be fixed whilst I'm there, hence the possibly.
My first instinct on grape might have been right after all, that reaction to voxx was just so flat.
Anyway i have a few other things to respond to later but I realized I’m running late actually so later.
Titus - to actually answer that who’s the third question. Osie/trob had interactions with grape that pinged, so if he flipped scum I’d look into those a bit more. There’s a part of me that is holding onto osie being town though.
Oh SC - I’d say I’m about 5% on knowing what’s happened today. I’ve skimmed most posts, so I have a base idea but haven’t read posts in depth.
That narrative is unlikely as Grape and Osie either pick a hard bus route or a hard defense route. The votes yesterday also don't suggest Osie with Grape.
Tammy is busy/not fully caught up.
Empoof is understandably not engaged in the game with RL things.
SC is v/la.
Marko hasn't posted at all on D2.
Osie is V/LA.
Tubba is V/LA and only made 1-2 posts on D2.
Grapefruit is... to be charitable let's just call it very disengaged. (Or a wolf in anti-spew mode).
TW and Titus are 'here', but getting anything resembling depth/detail out of them is like pulling teeth.
I guess I can try and engage with Titus about why I think Osie/Grape are w/w later today, but feels an awful lot like we're just in an echo-chambery holding pattern right now, and will be tomorrow too. I see very few worlds where we don't lynch one of Osie/Grape today, and the other tomorrow.
And I mean...I think they're both wolves so I'm functionally okay with that, just doesn't feel like many people are all that engaged with the game right now.
I understand maybe this is hypocritical given how little I was into the game on D1, but my eyeballs felt like they were melting out of my skull, so there's a reason for that heh.
feeling like maybe a lost I wrote didn't get posted oe maybe I forgot to submit it or something. anyway. who are we lunching out of {osie, grape} and why are they more likely to flip scum than the other in a vacuum?
I have a feeling in this but I'm in confbiasy land
I don't think there's little said, but little fresh that's said. I don't feel Osie is scum based on play or votes. Best play is to keep town united, lynch Grape then argue Tubba or Osie tomorrow.
I didn’t. Did you ever answer who your rock was this game?
I’m not going to tell you the little tings I think I’ve picked up that are a decent indicator if you’re town, but generally I think the way you respond to pressure or a mounting wagon is indicative as well as the interactions with and about flipped scum. No wagon has been built on you, and I’m not the type make a wagon just to get a reaction. No scum have flipped, so that’s not there to analyze.
Someone once told me that they work around you to get a read on you, and I’m kinda testing that out here. I’ve rarely straight up town read you when you’ve been town, and even when you e been scum and I thought you were I’d take a long time considering because you used to get mislynched so often. I don’t know if you still do, but the basic idea with working around you is to not spend so much time fixated on getting a read on you when it’s a weakness. Note things that are notable if they occur, but worry about my reads elsewhere and then see how you fit into the puzzle. It’s probably not perfect, but my old way wasn’t working so I’m trying something new.
Voxx - I don’t think I worded what I was trying to say yesterday morning. Im not very clear when groggy. But it’s really not important I don’t think. It was mostly a musing.
I thought I realized a smoking gun earlier because it dawned on me that tubba was voting grape and the last ting I remembered was him calling grape good ol town grape, which for some reason my team thinks spewed grape clear if tubba scum, so I thoight his progression was all wrong, but going back to his iso he started dropping that read later on, so nevermind that.
There’s also a team note of possible unaligned with osie/grape. Though that might have been a misremembered point. I’m moslty putting this here for a reminder for myself and team to go check that because I can’t find it in notes and I don’t want it to get buried and forgotten.
Well um oops. My early ping on grape started with this post and it was due to me misreading troba for tubba and think g he was calling out someone for an early rvs post and that felt weird and like some maybe early distancing with tubba especially when he said he stopped reading my posts because egg talk and limited time. The whole thing just felt wrong and whelp his early game doesn’t look so weird when I’m reading the correct name.
Grape - earlier in this game you had some interaction with tubba on his ability to read you, what do you think of his progression on you?
As well as look at my posts a bit closer regarding his mindset regarding it.
I'm pretty dialed in on Grape being a wolf, as is my entire team, so we've been combing through thread looking for partners, as we're like at 97%+ certainty on that read. (More specifically, they're at 90%ish, and I'm at pretty much 100%)
Starting from that baseline, like.
I'm town.
We think you are solidly town.
We think SC is very likely to be town, but there's some team tinfoil if it turns out to be Osie is town and this isn't w/w. I think they're being dumb and she's just town though, but it's worth considering late game if things don't quite fit and this is w/v.
Empoof is probably not a third in Grape/Osie w/w worlds, and we don't really think he's a wolf with Grape regardless. There is also Ara + her team's read on him which we take somewhat seriously given the respect we have for Lissa and Visor as players, and think he's probably just town here and would never really reconsider that until F3.
We're /pretty/ sure that Marko is not w/w with Grape, and liked some of his D1 posts independently of that, but it's not as strong of a town read as the previous three.
Trob and TW both voted/pushed Grape, and we spent some time combing over the early D1 interactions and decided they were probably just a little bit too weird to be w/w. I think the slot is pretty clear if Grape/Osie is w/w, but there's some hesitation if it turns out to be w/v - but given I don't think it is w/v, its not where I'm all that interested in looking right now, and probably just is town regardless.
That leaves Grape, Osie, Tubba, and Titus.
My team kind of just wants to slap a 'solved' stamp on the game and power lynch them in that order, and are rolling their eyes at me for still putting this much effort into things, but given you're citing unalignments in this cluster that would mean there'd have to be wolves outside it, I want you to look back at the interactions and my earlier posts and evaluate given that if you could.
I really think that Grape/osie crossvote and interaction is one of the fakest things I've ever seen in a mafia game. Just reeks of scum theater, and a lot of Osie's posts felt like scum complaining, and his mindset just wasn't meshing with the gamestate. He was complaining about the game playing 'sheep the lurkers', when we were both voting for Grapefruit along with him at the time, and the rest of my scum team minus him was his exact same scum team PoE. It just didn't/doesn't feel like he was critically thinking about the game, and it's a lot more likely to come from a wolf.
I acknowledge it's possible I can be conf-biasing a tunnel into the interaction, and want more sets of reasonable eyes (like, oh, you and your whole team) to spend some time on it and look at it from the perspective of Grape very likely wolf, and see what they think about Osie given that.
Tubba and Titus both fit with those two as a team relatively well, and aren't town reads. My team thinks it's more likely to be Tubba, and I /guess/ I agree, but Titus pushing Grape but shielding Osie has me squinting pretty aggressively if that turns out to be w/w.
But yeah, like. This is not a mechanical claim or anything, I think it's pretty clear I'm VT - but my team and I sunk a ton of time into Grape and his ISO and read through other games to meta dive a bit, and he's just never a villager here, so we used that read to form the rest of our reads.
I wouldn’t take my team tights on the unalignments very seriously right now. I don’t think that tubba post spews grape town for instance, just kinda putting that thought there for completeness.
And the osie thug might be a misrembrance, so hold on that one.
My goal for tonight is to get through both their ISO’s. Going deeper will probably wait for tomorrow and weekend.
She's not a town read independently, and that felt an awful lot like trying to tie me to someone she knows is a wolf.
Not a lock, but not something I'm willing to hard clear her for, etc.
I think it's most likely to just be Grape/Osie/Tubba, but there's some small things that make me squint at that, too.
I did make it through grape, and eh I'm not feeling the super scum you are. Today is super disengaged and his response to you last night was very wooden and I didn't like his end of day yesterday, but I'm nowhere near the level of confidence you have that he'll flip scum. Scum team doesn't have him as a strong scumread either except by poe.
There's also concern about the gamestate right now and a concern that this isn't a gamestate that is due to scum just giving up. Just a general observation.
Oh Grape - If you read ossie as strongly scum as you do, why isn't that pulling you into the game some?
osieorb18 - 3 (the worst, Grapefruit21, Foopme)
Not Voting - 3 (Tammy, ScarletCelestial, MarkoRaj)
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to majority lynch.
Day 2 ends at 6:00 PM Eastern Time on August 18th unless there is a majority lynch.
Osieorb18 is V/LA until Sunday, August 12th.
Problems with this vote count? PM me or DM me on Discord for the fastest response. Posting something in-thread will probably get my attention eventually.