KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Wheat
Because I can see a glorious game ahead for us, and I dont believe I will ever be the lynch today
and to answer your answer on me omgusing you, "It doesnt exist", ill give you that your push on me, gave me reason to reread a lot of your content, and I still have a hard time, understanding your progression on killjoy, because Ive seen killjoy lurk in every game I was in so far, and he was town in every single one, I mean that could mean everything or maybe even noting, I am just curious if you've ever played with killjoy before, aka, why is his activity pinging you as scum?
also still dont understand how you vote me over shadow, or how you cant see a world where I aint scum... just seems like a rushed conclusion, and a very lacking one at that...
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I'm mostly suspicious of Lissa rn. Mostly cause if they were town they would already post some post wich looks obviously townish.
They are not bad of a player, but theirs posts so far could come from any aligment and it's bothering me.
Plus they townread Rhand and are voting one of shadow's voters. So from theirs PoV it looks like they think it's T/T wagons. It is possible, but I would expect town Lissa to actualy take more initiative here to change a wagon target.
Not really even sure where to start with the first part of this.
Expecting me to have already posted some "obviously" town things is something that should come from having some level of meta (it isn't an accurate expectation anyway, but in theory) and I have no idea who you are. If it's a baseline expectation of a not-bad player that's absurd.
And it's not really at a point in the day where I find it all that useful to push hard on something like that, more focused on developing and fine tuning thoughts.
I've talked pretty in depth about why I'm clearing Rhand and the shadow pushes aren't really... something I can reason with much.
Hi, are you trying to lynch yourself? Cause I'm not supporting that.
Also, can you explain what you mean here?
You was on 3 vs 3 lead wagon. You took a vote down to vote someone else, meaning you are a lead wagon now. And you voted a person who was thinking of defending you, making me reconsider my options.
I mean, you couldn't know the second part, but the first part is still a thing.
yikes
Back to this.
You know, I don't expect specific someone to clear themselves mechanicly d1. Or clear themselves via catching wolf day 1.
But I do expect some players to at least post something wich I can read and say "Hey, this post doesn't make sense when coming from scum" and I can then start to slightly townread them.
You have 0 of such posts. All of them are something wich scum could as well make. And that's bothering me.
It's not about you pushing someone and me agreeing/disagreeing ect. It's more about your mentality being presented this game.
I understood exactly what you meant, and it's exactly the idea I was responding to.
Also some people are villa reading me afaik, this seems like a you problem.
But no I don't really expect to go anywhere near out of my range on an average d1 at this point anyway.
And I didn't say anything about you agreeing or disagreeing you said you expected more initiative.
#515
That quote sounds nitpicky...
How is Reg exactly on the null line?
Why am I so high up? lol
Actually, why is Vaimes and Nancy so high up?
Except for the Rhand read, which all the way at the top is kinda weird? cause I probably wouldnt put him that high, your list is probably the exact opposite of mine...
also one bottom poster can be scum, but I doubt all of them are
Lissa
Since when is, "He says he has significant wolfing issues", ever relevant, to literally anything? and you dont even have experience with him, so why take that at face value, like im ok with using meta, but you dont know his meta, so dont take his self meta at face value, its actually disgusting... and your last sentence doesnt change the fact, that this post is bad 518
I think I've explained... all of those things re: list in fairly substantial depth.
And I didn't hear it from him I heard it from multiple other people a while ago one of whom was Newcomb who has (or apparently used to have) a super good read on him. What gave you the impression I got it from him saying it/why did you assume that?
roz is gunna be a ***** to read
then nancy defends herself using someones meta from an ongoing game, and its ******* atrocious...
actually the only one I truly like is Lissa
but then lissa wants to town read nancy because hur dur, her posts just are so bad, that she must be town
so then that completely ruins my town read on lissa
Let me ask otherwise.
If someone has a lot of posts but for the most of them there is nothing conclusive in them, do you think it's town or scum?
Exactly.
No content on someone who is usualy high enough poster is bothering me.
I mean it's fine to think I didn't do anything indicative but it's actually pretty ludicrous to say most of my posts are not conclusive or contentful.
Also you assume in how you talk about it that everyone else just agrees with you at a baseline and that isn't like... accurate so it doesn't even really make sense in that respect.
One of my teammates read the game and shared thoughts.
First, for LW: Said teammate thinks you are more likely town than scum. The scumteam picked out was Rhand, Lissa, sheep.
While I obviously don't agree with my teammate across the board there was one that I came to his conclusion on, and that's sheep. While early on sheep was very townie, suddenly sheep stopped doing anything for most of the rest of the Day in a complete turnaround from the play that made (him? her?) townie in the first place.
But that all said it's deadline very soon.
I'm unwilling to vote Roz. My teammate and I are in agreement that Roz's entry is not indicative of scum.
LW is probably not going to be lynched, there's just not support for it, and even my own team is doubting it.
I am open to voting shadow. My teammate puts him at just on the town side of neutral, which is not enough for me to wildly think I'm seeing things.
I'm also open to voting Rhand, who is the overlap on the list.
Wheat
Sheep is always possible, like you, I liked his entrance, but he slowly began to lurk, which is the complete opposite of his town game I saw on MU, where he lit up the thread at certain points
also I love #771
I'm unwilling to vote Roz. My teammate and I are in agreement that Roz's entry is not indicative of scum.
Thank you, its a typical Roz entrance, doesnt indicate scum!Roz or town!Roz, just good ole Roz, like stated before, I will not lynch there today either
Also I wont vote Rhand for my meta read, and tinfoil...
I still honestly dont see what people like about Shadow...
The lack of support for my pet roz wagon is saddening.
because its a bad cfd, when lynches like Shadow exist... or Rhand in most of the eyes of the people in this game, except maybe you now who, "had a dream"...
You know what, I’ve had a bit of a discussion with my team and I want to try something.
Vote Lastwhisper
Last feels like he’s almost in antispew mode; his posts feel like himself, but with a reserved quality, like he’s really trying not to screw things up.
You know what, I’ve had a bit of a discussion with my team and I want to try something.
Vote Lastwhisper
Last feels like he’s almost in antispew mode; his posts feel like himself, but with a reserved quality, like he’s really trying not to screw things up.
You know what, I’ve had a bit of a discussion with my team and I want to try something.
Vote Lastwhisper
Last feels like he’s almost in antispew mode; his posts feel like himself, but with a reserved quality, like he’s really trying not to screw things up.
Overall I have a substantial issue with Roz's read on me; it is an awkward combination of experience-dependent and incredibly generic and feels more like "I am looking for something to push" than "I actually think this fits what I'm applying it to".
Overall I have a substantial issue with Roz's read on me; it is an awkward combination of experience-dependent and incredibly generic and feels more like "I am looking for something to push" than "I actually think this fits what I'm applying it to".
ok I agree it was a weird ass read, but not coming from Roz, can you vote shadow now? he literally just confirmed himself as scum in #717
Shadow has personally seen two of my town games, hes knows my town meta, he knows how I think, and he even defended me early on because of the meta he knows, and now hes making up *****, and using some reverse psychology , and using the meta he thought made me town, to scum read me
its insane, and Shadow is an amazing player, Ive seen him get out of sticky situations, and this is scum!shadow
The lack of support for my pet roz wagon is saddening.
because its a bad cfd, when lynches like Shadow exist... or Rhand in most of the eyes of the people in this game, except maybe you now who, "had a dream"...
Yes, lynching one of the most of active posters in the game over some unapologetic troll, nothing could ever go wrong.
The lack of support for my pet roz wagon is saddening.
because its a bad cfd, when lynches like Shadow exist... or Rhand in most of the eyes of the people in this game, except maybe you now who, "had a dream"...
Yes, lynching one of the most of active posters in the game over some unapologetic troll, nothing could ever go wrong.
WHEN DOES BEING ACTIVE EQUATE TO BEING TOWN, WHAT EVEN IS THIS GAME...
ROZ' POSTING STYLE, DOESNT MAKE HIM ANYMORE SCUM THAN TOWN OR VICE VERSA, JUST AS SHADOW OR ANY OTHER OF THE TOP POSTERS POSTING ALOT, DOESNT MAKE THEM TOWN
Overall I have a substantial issue with Roz's read on me; it is an awkward combination of experience-dependent and incredibly generic and feels more like "I am looking for something to push" than "I actually think this fits what I'm applying it to".
I don't think it even qualifies as a read, honestly.
Overall I have a substantial issue with Roz's read on me; it is an awkward combination of experience-dependent and incredibly generic and feels more like "I am looking for something to push" than "I actually think this fits what I'm applying it to".
ok I agree it was a weird ass read, but not coming from Roz, can you vote shadow now? he literally just confirmed himself as scum in #717
Shadow has personally seen two of my town games, hes knows my town meta, he knows how I think, and he even defended me early on because of the meta he knows, and now hes making up *****, and using some reverse psychology , and using the meta he thought made me town, to scum read me
its insane, and Shadow is an amazing player, Ive seen him get out of sticky situations, and this is scum!shadow
I have a really hard time giving this a lot of weight with the sheer degree of tunnel you have had on Shadow. Like you've been basically locked in the entire day.
Overall I have a substantial issue with Roz's read on me; it is an awkward combination of experience-dependent and incredibly generic and feels more like "I am looking for something to push" than "I actually think this fits what I'm applying it to".
ok I agree it was a weird ass read, but not coming from Roz, can you vote shadow now? he literally just confirmed himself as scum in #717
Shadow has personally seen two of my town games, hes knows my town meta, he knows how I think, and he even defended me early on because of the meta he knows, and now hes making up *****, and using some reverse psychology , and using the meta he thought made me town, to scum read me
its insane, and Shadow is an amazing player, Ive seen him get out of sticky situations, and this is scum!shadow
I have a really hard time giving this a lot of weight with the sheer degree of tunnel you have had on Shadow. Like you've been basically locked in the entire day.
The lack of support for my pet roz wagon is saddening.
because its a bad cfd, when lynches like Shadow exist... or Rhand in most of the eyes of the people in this game, except maybe you now who, "had a dream"...
Yes, lynching one of the most of active posters in the game over some unapologetic troll, nothing could ever go wrong.
WHEN DOES BEING ACTIVE EQUATE TO BEING TOWN, WHAT EVEN IS THIS GAME...
ROZ' POSTING STYLE, DOESNT MAKE HIM ANYMORE SCUM THAN TOWN OR VICE VERSA, JUST AS SHADOW OR ANY OTHER OF THE TOP POSTERS POSTING ALOT, DOESNT MAKE THEM TOWN
In order to have a posting style, first you must post.
Play 50 games of mafia, the person who is active as shadow is will flip town 40 times and the person who plays like Roz will flip mafia 40 times. If everyone played like Roz, we would get to day 3 with nothing to go off. Simply by posting, regardless of his alignment, shadow is helping to solve the game. Roz is intentionally doing the opposite. I would prefer to kill people not solving the game on day 1, when I haven't had enough time to get strong reads.
Overall I have a substantial issue with Roz's read on me; it is an awkward combination of experience-dependent and incredibly generic and feels more like "I am looking for something to push" than "I actually think this fits what I'm applying it to".
ok I agree it was a weird ass read, but not coming from Roz, can you vote shadow now? he literally just confirmed himself as scum in #717
Shadow has personally seen two of my town games, hes knows my town meta, he knows how I think, and he even defended me early on because of the meta he knows, and now hes making up *****, and using some reverse psychology , and using the meta he thought made me town, to scum read me
its insane, and Shadow is an amazing player, Ive seen him get out of sticky situations, and this is scum!shadow
I have a really hard time giving this a lot of weight with the sheer degree of tunnel you have had on Shadow. Like you've been basically locked in the entire day.
and?
I think it's pretty likely significant confirmation bias is happening here.
Overall I have a substantial issue with Roz's read on me; it is an awkward combination of experience-dependent and incredibly generic and feels more like "I am looking for something to push" than "I actually think this fits what I'm applying it to".
ok I agree it was a weird ass read, but not coming from Roz, can you vote shadow now? he literally just confirmed himself as scum in #717
Shadow has personally seen two of my town games, hes knows my town meta, he knows how I think, and he even defended me early on because of the meta he knows, and now hes making up *****, and using some reverse psychology , and using the meta he thought made me town, to scum read me
its insane, and Shadow is an amazing player, Ive seen him get out of sticky situations, and this is scum!shadow
I have a really hard time giving this a lot of weight with the sheer degree of tunnel you have had on Shadow. Like you've been basically locked in the entire day.
and?
I think it's pretty likely significant confirmation bias is happening here.
You don't agree with his reasoning, or you just think he's wrong?
Real life things finally sorted for the foreseeable (And hopefully permanant) future!!!! Can start being a human again and using brain cells. I'll be making up for being a burden on this game tonight, promise.
If someone wants to let me know what they think I should focus on moreso when catching up then would be hugely appreciated too.
If you could focus on showing that you care about the game that would be pretty ideal, since like, I currently don't believe that you do and think you're decently likely to be scum for it.
ok I agree it was a weird ass read, but not coming from Roz, can you vote shadow now? he literally just confirmed himself as scum in #717
Shadow has personally seen two of my town games, hes knows my town meta, he knows how I think, and he even defended me early on because of the meta he knows, and now hes making up *****, and using some reverse psychology , and using the meta he thought made me town, to scum read me
its insane, and Shadow is an amazing player, Ive seen him get out of sticky situations, and this is scum!shadow
I have a really hard time giving this a lot of weight with the sheer degree of tunnel you have had on Shadow. Like you've been basically locked in the entire day.
and?
I think it's pretty likely significant confirmation bias is happening here.
You don't agree with his reasoning, or you just think he's wrong?
Thoughts on WG/KJ?
I don't know that I really have the experience to agree or disagree, it's a meta related thing. And I don't know that I think he has to be actually wrong.
I just... normally that kind of thought is something I would at least be interested in looking into, though I think it's something people are prone to confirmation biasing even on a more general level.
But I feel like shadow could do basically anything but reveal as Innocent Child and lw would still think he's a wolf and lw has been there the entire 12 or so days this game has been running. That + already confirmation bias prone and perspective-specific type of read = an interpretation/perception that's probably intensely confirmation biased to the degree of being pretty much meaningless.
If you could focus on showing that you care about the game that would be pretty ideal, since like, I currently don't believe that you do and think you're decently likely to be scum for it.
Shouldn't be a problem; have several hours carved out for this tonight and tomorrow.
Think I'm in the right headspace to actually gamesolve too.
I've played quite a bit with killjoy, and he's very often mislynch bait when he's town. Him not voting is a little ???? but like, not something I would hang a case of him on. I did like his catchup, and including antialignments was a nice touch. I should probably reread him in Resistance, where he was just scum.
How the hell do you not know that I'm usually stingy with my vote? Well. When I'm not tunneling.
So yeah. how do you not know this?
Aside: I wanna go back and relook at that whole "people not voting for me" thing and see what part Lissa played in that, and what I'm confusing her with Gemma with.
The closest I am willing to vote in Wheat but would like more discussion from him.
Shadow might be scum too, but not quite as sure.
I kinda like this in combination with the me/reg/gemma read. Villagery lack of self awareness.
His game thoughts post feels decently like he's actually thinking about things.
Not super strong but I feel somewhat better?
I still have issues with Wheat but my thoughts are pretty jumbled there right now, need to dig in and work through them.
If you could focus on showing that you care about the game that would be pretty ideal, since like, I currently don't believe that you do and think you're decently likely to be scum for it.
Shouldn't be a problem; have several hours carved out for this tonight and tomorrow.
Think I'm in the right headspace to actually gamesolve too.
shadow, Rhand, WG, Roz, and probably KJ are currently viable wagons, so start there. Would personally like some focus on Lissa, I have a weak town read on her but find her interactions with the shadow wagon to be a little problematic. I have very strong town reads on Vaimes and LW. You should probably take a glance at them for yourself but I think your time is better spent elsewhere. I'd also appreciate it if you take a deeper look at sheep's progressions because I have more of a problem with them than you seem to and his trajectory this day phase has been pretty, um, flat.
I have a really hard time giving this a lot of weight with the sheer degree of tunnel you have had on Shadow. Like you've been basically locked in the entire day.
and?
I think it's pretty likely significant confirmation bias is happening here.
You don't agree with his reasoning, or you just think he's wrong?
Thoughts on WG/KJ?
I don't know that I really have the experience to agree or disagree, it's a meta related thing. And I don't know that I think he has to be actually wrong.
I just... normally that kind of thought is something I would at least be interested in looking into, though I think it's something people are prone to confirmation biasing even on a more general level.
But I feel like shadow could do basically anything but reveal as Innocent Child and lw would still think he's a wolf and lw has been there the entire 12 or so days this game has been running. That + already confirmation bias prone and perspective-specific type of read = an interpretation/perception that's probably intensely confirmation biased to the degree of being pretty much meaningless.
He's definitely confirmation biased, yeah. I think he has a decent point, I don't really find that read from shadow to be very believable either. How do you feel about shadow overall atm?
I think it's pretty likely significant confirmation bias is happening here.
You don't agree with his reasoning, or you just think he's wrong?
Thoughts on WG/KJ?
I don't know that I really have the experience to agree or disagree, it's a meta related thing. And I don't know that I think he has to be actually wrong.
I just... normally that kind of thought is something I would at least be interested in looking into, though I think it's something people are prone to confirmation biasing even on a more general level.
But I feel like shadow could do basically anything but reveal as Innocent Child and lw would still think he's a wolf and lw has been there the entire 12 or so days this game has been running. That + already confirmation bias prone and perspective-specific type of read = an interpretation/perception that's probably intensely confirmation biased to the degree of being pretty much meaningless.
He's definitely confirmation biased, yeah. I think he has a decent point, I don't really find that read from shadow to be very believable either. How do you feel about shadow overall atm?
I guess I need to like... take a better look at what he was talking about really.
Wheat
Sheep is always possible, like you, I liked his entrance, but he slowly began to lurk, which is the complete opposite of his town game I saw on MU, where he lit up the thread at certain points
feel like that game was the time period where iwas literally at home sitting in front of my laptop all day
full day math camp/having to do like an amc 10 test every few days isnt the same amount of time to play rip
You know what, I’ve had a bit of a discussion with my team and I want to try something.
Vote Lastwhisper
Last feels like he’s almost in antispew mode; his posts feel like himself, but with a reserved quality, like he’s really trying not to screw things up.
dude this cnt be a real htought he's like my top town by a mile
Thats not how statistics work, like at all, and the law of large numbers definitely doesnt owe you anything
Its insane that you would base lynches off that summary
you are just plain out ignoring the fact that some town just cant post, because of life, while some scum can.
Spamming the thread is not necessarily town tell
and vice versa lurking isnt an automatic scum tell
Lissa
Gemma
Now this one is for both of you...
Why do you both think its confirmation bias?
are there towns tells that are being missed here?
Gemma He's definitely confirmation biased, yeah. I think he has a decent point, I don't really find that read from shadow to be very believable either. How do you feel about shadow overall atm?
so why not vote him??????
Lissa But I feel like shadow could do basically anything but reveal as Innocent Child and lw would still think he's a wolf and lw has been there the entire 12 or so days this game has been running.
yep you got me with that nice shade... great ******* post
If you could focus on showing that you care about the game that would be pretty ideal, since like, I currently don't believe that you do and think you're decently likely to be scum for it.
Shouldn't be a problem; have several hours carved out for this tonight and tomorrow.
Think I'm in the right headspace to actually gamesolve too.
im so glad that you just need to be "in the right head space" to ******* choose to post in a game you signed up for... i expect some decent posts tomorrow...
wg going oh never going to vote him because i think his entrance is nai is ??? pretty bad
also htought you werent allowed to reference teamie's thoguhts?
you just cant copy/paste, you can rephrase, and you can refer to ur teams thoughts as a collective whole, you cant refer to a specific player tho, like, "So and so said this" or "so and so believes this"
LW, lay off Regfan you have no right to comment on his mental health in that way.
You and I have very different ways of playing the game. I work by maximizing information and using that information on day 2+ to solve the game via world building and none of that is possible without content posts. Roz can continue to play the way he is and I will never solve his alignment nor will he help me solve anyone else's alignment, so yes I want him dead over someone who will do both of those things. I'm not worried about shadow scum. I'll catch him tomorrow if I'm alive, and when I do it I'll have way more information from his flip than if I lynch him today. And if he's town then I'll have a better chance of getting there, too.
I'm not defending shadow, I just think there are better lynches and killing him today doesn't really line up with my process.
I don’t actually think a Last lynch is in the cards today, but I think he’s going to need some serious scrutiny tomorrow, he freaked out when I voted him, he’s basically doing everything in his power to force through a lynch on me. If he’s town, this play is inexcusable, arrogant, and frankly insulting.
Vote Roz
This slot is never getting NK’d, and I absolutely don’t want him in any LyLo.
I think it's confirmation bias because you've been latched on with an absurd degree of strength since the very start and that particular (portion of the) read is very perception/perspective heavy so it's hard to imagine it's not somewhat colored by that.
It's not shade you're still one of my top villager reads.
That doesn't require me to think you are playing well.
I agree with KJ on Wheat 100%. His recent thought progressions don't make sense. Regfan's post in that Regfan / Gemma / LW conversation was really bad, and calling Regfan town now is off.
I'm at Regfan / Wheat / Shadow now, with Gemma a close 4th.
My current reads, ordered by strength of the read:
Town
Lastwhisper (unchanged)
KillJoy (comes with a good case on Wheat in a stalled game. Scum!KJ would’ve been on my wagon by now)
Nancy (unchanged)
Lissa (unchanged)
Lean town
Sheep (same reads as me)
Null
Vaimes (posts lack content in many cases, but good observations here and there)
Roz (saw some good posts and some I don’t like. Need more to make a good read)
Lean scum
Gemma (most likely not scum with Regfan, but I don’t like how she talks about Shadow. And how she clears Regfan for a bad post. Scum if Regfan is town)
Scum
Regfan (632 looks like a typical scum post)
Shadow (half of what he says is the opposite of what I’m thinking and the other half is spam)
Wheat (unnatural thought progressions, very strange how he stays open to be on both most popular wagons, bad defense of Regfan)
unvote, vote Wheat_Grinder
I'm ok with switching back to Shadow, but that wagon seems stalled and we need a lynch.
I'm not ok with lynching anyone outside of my bottom 4, but would hammer Roz if needed for deadline.
shadowlancerx - 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Rhand, Lastwhisper)
Rhand - 2 (Vaimes, shadowlancerx)
Wheat_Grinder - 2 (Lissa, Killjoy)
Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Lastwhisper - 1 (Wheat_Grinder)
roz_the_eevee - 1 (Gemma)
Not Voting - 2 (Regfan, Nancy Drew 39)
With 12 Alive it takes 7 to Lynch.
The deadline is 2200BST on Wednesday 1st August
Because I can see a glorious game ahead for us, and I dont believe I will ever be the lynch today
and to answer your answer on me omgusing you, "It doesnt exist", ill give you that your push on me, gave me reason to reread a lot of your content, and I still have a hard time, understanding your progression on killjoy, because Ive seen killjoy lurk in every game I was in so far, and he was town in every single one, I mean that could mean everything or maybe even noting, I am just curious if you've ever played with killjoy before, aka, why is his activity pinging you as scum?
also still dont understand how you vote me over shadow, or how you cant see a world where I aint scum... just seems like a rushed conclusion, and a very lacking one at that...
I’m on board.
I understood exactly what you meant, and it's exactly the idea I was responding to.
Also some people are villa reading me afaik, this seems like a you problem.
But no I don't really expect to go anywhere near out of my range on an average d1 at this point anyway.
And I didn't say anything about you agreeing or disagreeing you said you expected more initiative.
I think I've explained... all of those things re: list in fairly substantial depth.
And I didn't hear it from him I heard it from multiple other people a while ago one of whom was Newcomb who has (or apparently used to have) a super good read on him. What gave you the impression I got it from him saying it/why did you assume that?
I don't think I can overstate how ******* insane I think it would be to make that "he made up bad mafia theory to push me" post as a wolf.
Also I should probably make clear there isn't really any order in tiers for the most part. But Rhand being on top was actively on purpose.
Why does that completely ruin your read?
also it's not really what happened anyway
I mean it's fine to think I didn't do anything indicative but it's actually pretty ludicrous to say most of my posts are not conclusive or contentful.
Also you assume in how you talk about it that everyone else just agrees with you at a baseline and that isn't like... accurate so it doesn't even really make sense in that respect.
That doesn't currently appear to be a thing that happened?
acknowledging, will do in a bit after caught up and head wrapped around ***** again
gonna put a bunch of time into game today
First, for LW: Said teammate thinks you are more likely town than scum. The scumteam picked out was Rhand, Lissa, sheep.
While I obviously don't agree with my teammate across the board there was one that I came to his conclusion on, and that's sheep. While early on sheep was very townie, suddenly sheep stopped doing anything for most of the rest of the Day in a complete turnaround from the play that made (him? her?) townie in the first place.
But that all said it's deadline very soon.
I'm unwilling to vote Roz. My teammate and I are in agreement that Roz's entry is not indicative of scum.
LW is probably not going to be lynched, there's just not support for it, and even my own team is doubting it.
I am open to voting shadow. My teammate puts him at just on the town side of neutral, which is not enough for me to wildly think I'm seeing things.
I'm also open to voting Rhand, who is the overlap on the list.
For now,
Unvote, Vote: Shadow
Sheep is always possible, like you, I liked his entrance, but he slowly began to lurk, which is the complete opposite of his town game I saw on MU, where he lit up the thread at certain points
also I love #771
I'm unwilling to vote Roz. My teammate and I are in agreement that Roz's entry is not indicative of scum.
Thank you, its a typical Roz entrance, doesnt indicate scum!Roz or town!Roz, just good ole Roz, like stated before, I will not lynch there today either
Also I wont vote Rhand for my meta read, and tinfoil...
I still honestly dont see what people like about Shadow...
Vote Lastwhisper
Last feels like he’s almost in antispew mode; his posts feel like himself, but with a reserved quality, like he’s really trying not to screw things up.
Shadow has personally seen two of my town games, hes knows my town meta, he knows how I think, and he even defended me early on because of the meta he knows, and now hes making up *****, and using some reverse psychology , and using the meta he thought made me town, to scum read me
its insane, and Shadow is an amazing player, Ive seen him get out of sticky situations, and this is scum!shadow
ROZ' POSTING STYLE, DOESNT MAKE HIM ANYMORE SCUM THAN TOWN OR VICE VERSA, JUST AS SHADOW OR ANY OTHER OF THE TOP POSTERS POSTING ALOT, DOESNT MAKE THEM TOWN
Vote: roz_the_eevee
Play 50 games of mafia, the person who is active as shadow is will flip town 40 times and the person who plays like Roz will flip mafia 40 times. If everyone played like Roz, we would get to day 3 with nothing to go off. Simply by posting, regardless of his alignment, shadow is helping to solve the game. Roz is intentionally doing the opposite. I would prefer to kill people not solving the game on day 1, when I haven't had enough time to get strong reads.
Thoughts on WG/KJ?
I just... normally that kind of thought is something I would at least be interested in looking into, though I think it's something people are prone to confirmation biasing even on a more general level.
But I feel like shadow could do basically anything but reveal as Innocent Child and lw would still think he's a wolf and lw has been there the entire 12 or so days this game has been running. That + already confirmation bias prone and perspective-specific type of read = an interpretation/perception that's probably intensely confirmation biased to the degree of being pretty much meaningless.
Shouldn't be a problem; have several hours carved out for this tonight and tomorrow.
Think I'm in the right headspace to actually gamesolve too.
I... don't really remember thinking much new about KJ when I was catching up? Let's see.
I kinda like this in combination with the me/reg/gemma read. Villagery lack of self awareness.
His game thoughts post feels decently like he's actually thinking about things.
Not super strong but I feel somewhat better?
I still have issues with Wheat but my thoughts are pretty jumbled there right now, need to dig in and work through them.
I guess I need to like... take a better look at what he was talking about really.
I'm not at all sure.
full day math camp/having to do like an amc 10 test every few days isnt the same amount of time to play rip
also htought you werent allowed to reference teamie's thoguhts?
Gemma
in response to #726
Thats not how statistics work, like at all, and the law of large numbers definitely doesnt owe you anything
Its insane that you would base lynches off that summary
you are just plain out ignoring the fact that some town just cant post, because of life, while some scum can.
Spamming the thread is not necessarily town tell
and vice versa lurking isnt an automatic scum tell
Lissa
Gemma
Now this one is for both of you...
Why do you both think its confirmation bias?
are there towns tells that are being missed here?
Gemma
He's definitely confirmation biased, yeah. I think he has a decent point, I don't really find that read from shadow to be very believable either. How do you feel about shadow overall atm?
so why not vote him??????
Lissa
But I feel like shadow could do basically anything but reveal as Innocent Child and lw would still think he's a wolf and lw has been there the entire 12 or so days this game has been running.
yep you got me with that nice shade... great ******* post
im so glad that you just need to be "in the right head space" to ******* choose to post in a game you signed up for... i expect some decent posts tomorrow...
also vote shadow if you arent already
You and I have very different ways of playing the game. I work by maximizing information and using that information on day 2+ to solve the game via world building and none of that is possible without content posts. Roz can continue to play the way he is and I will never solve his alignment nor will he help me solve anyone else's alignment, so yes I want him dead over someone who will do both of those things. I'm not worried about shadow scum. I'll catch him tomorrow if I'm alive, and when I do it I'll have way more information from his flip than if I lynch him today. And if he's town then I'll have a better chance of getting there, too.
I'm not defending shadow, I just think there are better lynches and killing him today doesn't really line up with my process.
also answer my question... "What are these town tells I am apparently missing?"
I'll have way more information from his flip than if I lynch him today
what in the hell??
I'm not defending shadow, I just think there are better lynches and killing him today doesn't really line up with my process.
lmao...
Vote Roz
This slot is never getting NK’d, and I absolutely don’t want him in any LyLo.
It's not shade you're still one of my top villager reads.
That doesn't require me to think you are playing well.
I agree with KJ on Wheat 100%. His recent thought progressions don't make sense. Regfan's post in that Regfan / Gemma / LW conversation was really bad, and calling Regfan town now is off.
I'm at Regfan / Wheat / Shadow now, with Gemma a close 4th.
My current reads, ordered by strength of the read:
Town
Lastwhisper (unchanged)
KillJoy (comes with a good case on Wheat in a stalled game. Scum!KJ would’ve been on my wagon by now)
Nancy (unchanged)
Lissa (unchanged)
Lean town
Sheep (same reads as me)
Null
Vaimes (posts lack content in many cases, but good observations here and there)
Roz (saw some good posts and some I don’t like. Need more to make a good read)
Lean scum
Gemma (most likely not scum with Regfan, but I don’t like how she talks about Shadow. And how she clears Regfan for a bad post. Scum if Regfan is town)
Scum
Regfan (632 looks like a typical scum post)
Shadow (half of what he says is the opposite of what I’m thinking and the other half is spam)
Wheat (unnatural thought progressions, very strange how he stays open to be on both most popular wagons, bad defense of Regfan)
unvote, vote Wheat_Grinder
I'm ok with switching back to Shadow, but that wagon seems stalled and we need a lynch.
I'm not ok with lynching anyone outside of my bottom 4, but would hammer Roz if needed for deadline.