People should go through Lissa's ISO and pay particular attention to her roz read, as well as to when and how she swears, then talk here about what stands out. Points to whomever notices the same things as me.
I don't think I have a massively different overall worldview to gemma, it boils down to a fairly similar poe overall, but I don't really understand the rhand stuff at all? Just like why he is casually top wagon for a while I guess. I guess he was the counter yesterday but I could so easily just forget entirely I'm confused by that in the first place as well. It's a little disorienting as a threadstate thing and I should probably dig into it and get a better grasp so I can engage with it better.
Idk I'd love to clean up my reads on rhand and nancy because I think it's dels/shadow/sheep but I don't feel superstrong about the last part but neither is ******* posting. I really want to be able to get one clear in there and the reads I have feel stale and insufficient.
I actually like the post that Lissa referenced now that I’ve had time to read it all. (262) I don’t really know about the “making up mafia theory” part, but this was the first post that felt sincere to me? i.e. The reaction feels real and he feels pretty determined to shut down what he feels is a bad case.
This post is also where he locks in to the Gemma/Shadow/Reg scum team. So that’s what I wanna discuss. The Gemma/Shadow/Reg scumteam theory is completely insane. It’s the most paranoid silly conspiracy theory ever to think the scumteam is the three people in the game who know each other the best and just all entered and immediately started three-way buddying each other like that. This is why I townread LW. Because LW suggested it and seemed really sure of it.
But Rhand follows it. And I don’t know whether that makes him a stubborn townie who is essentially OMGUSing Gemma and then crafting an entire team because of it, or if he’s scum that is just following on to what he thinks is an okay team theory to fake. I’m curious what people’s opinions are on this.
My feelings toward that always amounted to the former; I think it was the original base of my read, before that one post where I locked him in.
He also has a pretty strong mindmeld read with LW. This is what prompted Shadow to be like “how is anyone liking LW’s posts”, which Rhand justified with a “yeah I know its weird I usually don’t” (124 and 272) I don't really have any comment on this, I just think it's worth noting. It's possible he is scum trying to latch on to LW, but has trouble justifying why?
Relevant Posts for Rhand locking in the Gemma/Shadow/Reg team and continuing his townread of LW: 304, 308
He basically says that Reg is scum entirely because of Gemma's treatment of him? And that Shadow is scum either way, presumably for... Shadow's treatment of Gemma. It's just crazy to me that someone can actually think they are w/w, so I have a really hard time understanding this. He gives some reads on other players in 308... eh, they're fine. He centers it all on the Gemma/Reg/Shadow team mostly, which sort of ties in to what I noticed near EoD yesterday, which is that he bases a lot of his reads on worldbuilding like that. I'd like to see him actually explain in more depth why he is reading people the way he does, because I think it's easy for scum to base things on association like that.
I don't really think most wolves go about it in... that way so heavily though? Like that kind of read as a whole.
It's also worth noting that in 308, he says that Shadow is scum because Shadow tried to go after Lastwhisper. This is consistent with his EoD yesterday: He cited my vote on Lastwhisper as the reason why he voted me, and (presumably?) still thinks I am scum. So that's points for consistency. But also, Shadow... didn't really go after LW? Shadow shaded LW's posts a bit but ranked him pretty high on his readslist and didn't actually vote LW until much later. @Rhand can you explain exactly how you thought Shadow was going after LW?
A weird post I noted is 837 where he is asked to explain why he's voting for Wheat and not Shadow, and says that there's not enough support for a Shadow lynch. Weird because, in the most recent votals, Shadow is at 3 and Wheat is at 2...? And also I just... I never got the impression that there wasn't "enough support" for a Shadow lynch, Shadow seemed to be one of the main targets all day. I don't really how this is scum-motivated unless he is buddies with Shadow, but still. @Rhand Why did you think a Shadow lynch didn't have enough support?
It isn't super off to me but I'll leave it to him to actually explain if he ever resurfaces.
Other than that, I basically agree with whoever said his later part of day 1 felt... like there's not really a huge amount of progression from what I recall, other than moving onto Wheat, he just sort of restates his reads and doesn't seem particularly invested, until he picks up votes and then he seems sort of flail-y. It's hard for me to be unbiased because he votes me, and on one hand it fits with his behaviour and his stance on LW, but on the other hand it's just, like... really? Looking at it again now, he calls out Vaimes too... I guess because Vaimes had defended him earlier, but then votes him? And still thinks Wheat is scum. It kind of feels like just an aggressive angry townie, but I don't have any real reason to believe it's not fakeable.
could and would are two separate (intertwined, but separate) things
some of both are relevant here, i think, but mostly it isn't really that simple as "can" or "can't" it's "how well" even within ability
and this actually goes somewhere i swear
is something like that fakeable? probably. did/do i think he faked this particular case based on the specifics and also the "would he want to" end of things? no, not really.
also, i think it's rather uncomfortable to take this particular approach as a wolf for most people.
Also as I'm looking at it, I notice he already had Regfan as scum in his last readslist, so the whole thing of like "omg dels is definitely scum" is uh... it shouldn't be as much of a "revelation" as it is?
Anyway, I noted 3 people's suspicion on Rhand:
104 - Gemma's initial suspicion of Rhand because of his early questions. (102) I agree with Gemma here, thought Rhand had a weak start. He furthers it in 116 which felt a bit like a "look at why what i'm doing is townie". He votes Gemma in 106 with a sort of... weird amount of conviction, but eh.
396 - Reg was suspicious of Rhand because Rhand's progression towards reaching the whole 3-person scumteam of Gemma/Shadow/Reg wasn't really there. I agree with this as well. I can see where the Gemma thing comes in but I feel you need to do a lot more work to justify why Gemma is with exactly Shadow and Reg, and Rhand didn't really do this, he just sort of followed LW onto it.
514 - Noting Wheat's read on Rhand here. "Rhand feels more like Rhand impersonating Rhand than Rhand himself. Something is missing from his posts." Wheat still felt this way at EoD (1206), to which Rhand replied: "That is true. I completely lost my conviction the last hours, which is very unme." I don't think Wheat was killed by mafia, but either way, his read is still valuable.
Ultimately... eh. I think Rhand could very well be mafia. But I'm not convinced, and some things give me pause. Again, I want to see thoughts from Gemma and Lissa on this.
Okay, I wanted to try and make a case for why Gemma/Shadow are v/v based on interactions, and definitely not w/w, but I don’t have much actual evidence. (This post turns out to be more rambly than an actual case, so just go with it) My notes basically just point to the entirety of page 1, but I think everyone has read that, and many said it looked like buddying, and I guess all I can say is I totally disagree. Regfan had some paranoia that if they were w/w, they’d have to do it like that, and I get it since he knows both of them, but, meh, the whole of page 1 just reads very natural to me. The way they sort of joke around with each other, Shadow saying he’d be sad if she rolled w without him (note that later he explains they’ve only ever been w/w together, so this makes sense), and the way Shadow follows her onto Reg.
I guess if I had to point to any evidence that there’s actual townie thinking going on from Shadow, I would say 29. It looks good to me because he’s basically saying, “I know I’m joking around and having fun with Gemma, but actually I do think she might be town”. It shows that he’s actual thinking about if her silly posts are good, not just putting on some sort of act or buddying. (135 is where he directly explains the townread.)
I also think he has a pretty wide focus throughout the day, especially the early pages. He doesn’t really, like, rely on the Gemma thing, he branches out and reads and interacts with all the other players. I think if he was scum, it’s more likely he’d sort of rely on the Gemma interactions to keep him afloat and/or get him townread, but he doesn’t.
(And if I’m allowed to talk about myself, it’s absolutely ludicrous to think they are w/w/w with Reg. Like, insane. This is why I thought LW was town, and something I wanna talk about in regards to Rhand because he sheeped that same team)
Some other posts I have that I think show a real progression / real solving from Shadow irt Gemma:
142 I like because it, again, shows he has an actual read and is thinking about if she could be scum, and that he genuinely does think her posting makes her town.
218 The second section where he agrees with Gemma’s case on Rhand and thinks Rhand looks bad for it. This shows that his townread on Gemma is actually affecting how he perceives others – i.e. he’s not just hiding behind it.
162 Doesn’t mean much, but again shows consistency with Gemma at the top and Rhand at the bottom. Also noticing that Sheep and Last are at the top, which is good – it shows that he didn’t opportunistically push on Sheep after page 1 where he called him hedgey – again, I think as scum it’d have been easy for him to have Sheep as a scumread here. And it shows that he doesn’t really think Last is overtly scummy, just… annoying.
For Gemma, examples of her authentically solving Shadow are 403, 932, 962, 988, 994, 1003, 1004. She’s clearly very split and having an actual debate between brain and gut, and weighing all the evidence. There’s also a post I can’t find right now where Gemma said that Shadow’s “Wow, your cases are so good, I wish I could be as good as you” (paraphrased) isn’t how wolf!Shadow would treat her, because he’d want to outplay her, and even though I don’t know Shadow at all, I’m trusting Gemma’s read on that one. (And I think it’s another example showing she is really trying to solve him)
So, to Gemma and Shadow, and everyone:
I guess what I wanted to say, to tie together my townreads on both of you, is that I think you are both just town. I basically came in and saw both of you strongly pushing things near EoD, and saw Gemma going crazy over wondering about Shadow, and all I wanted was to scream was “Come on guys, you are both just obviously town!” I think it’s maybe easier to get a sort of “outsider” view as a replacement, maybe it’s not what I’d be thinking if I was in the game from the start, but I think as more of an observer, it’s a lot easier to look at a game and sort of just realize where the villagers are going crazy because they’ve been in the game for 2 weeks, and to take a more straightforward PoV and realize the simple things that people in the game might be missing.
And essentially, even though I don’t know you, Gemma, I am trusting your gut, even if you aren’t. And I think you should trust your gut too, because Shadow really seems like town to me, for these behaviour reasons you have, and for all the reasons I outlined last night.
And what I want to do, and how I’m viewing the game, is through the lens of forming a sort of “town core” there, and solving the other 6. And I hope, Gemma, you are not the paranoid type to think that I’m, like, a wolf with Shadow trying to pocket you or something (though uh from reading this thread, you may be, but I hope not), and Shadow, I know you didn’t trust Reg, and that Reg was suspicious of you, so I hope we can talk about that and work together.
So… yeah.
I don't really understand why any of this is separate from the respective Gemma/Shadow towncases. Or more so I don't know why it specifically deserved like a big focused post? An interaction being v/v (which I hate how a lot of people apply but idk that this is one of that kind of cases) should just be about the solviness of the individual players. A bit of the early stuff here sort of makes sense to separate, the rest is largely just individually liking their reads on each other and I don't really get why that isn't where you put it I guess?
First off, I wanna link 1153 for reference. (My thoughts on Shadow yesterday – they still hold up) The tl;dr of that is that I liked his aggressiveness, his insistence against Roz, his treatment of Gemma, and his wariness of Lastwhisper. By reading more, it’s actually helped me reinforce this view, and I see how the 6 pages I read fit into the whole 26.
For Shadow, I want to primarily examine how he treated the people he was suspicious of, and show why they are real progressions.
Lastwhisper:
So, let’s begin with 119, where Shadow starts to sort of shade LW. Rhand and someone else both said “I’m agreeing with LW a lot, and I never do!” (paraphrased) and Shadow was immediately put off by these mindmeld reads. And then in 129, Shadow basically calls LW oblivious. The reason I point these out is because these don’t read to me as a scum pushing on a townie – it reads like Shadow is genuinely annoyed by (or, to be a bit harsher, looks down upon) LW and has real frustration about the way the game is treating him. 406 shows consistency with this PoV, he asks Vaimes (again) how anyone could be mindmelding with LW. And why I don’t think this is scummy, is I don’t think scum will just outwardly express frustration that a townie is being townread! It doesn’t feel like an agenda to break down townreads on LW, that’d just be too obvious a play and I really doubt that’s what Shadow is doing.
I don't think that's in "scum won't do it" territory at all in the average case and beyond that I don't think frustration beyond an extremely overarching background thing is even happening there, it's pretty subtle/internal not super "outward".
Posts 527 and 528 are really funny, he quickly throws out some more worry about LW, and then immediately takes it back. I have no real point here. But I think it’s a towny thought process that shows that LW is still on his mind, and that he’s actually thinking about it, not just shading for no reason. 652 is another post that shows he is actually thinking about LW: When Wheat posts a scumread on LW, Shadow actually points out a problem in Wheat’s case! He doesn’t use it as an opportunity to push LW more, which I think he would be happy to do if he was scum. (And could get away with) I think what we can see is that Shadow is moreso bothered by his, uh, Last’s process/thoughts, and not that he is actually solidly scumreading him.
At this point I think I pinpointed a couple of things that were bothering me in general about these walls.
They feel largely surface level to me a lot of the time. Like you're wolfreading rhand for not thinking in a way that makes sense to you basically afaik?
And also the "shadow wouldn't point out a problem in a case someone was pushing", feel like that's like, on the nuance level of "a wolf wouldn't refute a townread on them" which is a pretty commonly subertved thing.
715 is when he finally votes LW, and I think the reason why is towny. I think town are way more likely than wolves to have these weird type of “something just feels off” reads (see: Shadow’s Nancy read), and I think it lines up perfectly with how he’s been viewing LW the whole time. I have 719 noted as where LW says this vote makes Shadow scum because Shadow should know better (because apparently Shadow knows Last’s town meta), but I think it is the opposite: That is why he wouldn’t do it as scum! Scum don’t just push people for “being different” when they know the person is in fact being exactly the same because they are town. (Or if they do, they make sure they can justify it by the person actually being different, and I get the feeling that LW really really wasn't)
Shadow unvotes in 747 and basically doesn’t continue pushing it. Again, no agenda. What kind of wolf play is it to finally vote Last, and then just… back off right away? Unless you think Shadow is such a cowardly wolf to, like, go for it and then back off the instant he gets any pushback? And, to quote, “If he’s town, this play is inexcusable, arrogant, and frankly insulting.” which is perfectly in line with how Shadow has felt about Last all game. 919 shows that he continues to stay annoyed at LW throughout the rest of the day.
Essentially, I feel like, if Shadow is a wolf, he’d actually, like, hard push LW or try to make a case or something – If he’s a wolf, he’s an aggressive one (see: his push on Roz), but he’s not doing that here, which makes me think there’s no agenda, just frustration and paranoia. The consistent thing throughout the entire day is that he (sorry) just really doesn’t like LW as a player. I picked up on a bit of this in my post yesterday, because I only saw the EoD where he just kept showing passive aggressive wariness of LW, and upon reading the thread, it all makes perfect sense.
The main bigger thing for me here is that I think shadow would be genuinely annoyed with LW as a wolf? As an overarching issue I have with the things you're saying up to here, you're assuming real frustration = town.
I do agree with the "being different" thing to a degree.
Nancy:
His Nancy read is another one that I love. 473. I want to quote it here because I think everyone should read it:
Nancy is like...focusing incorrectly. She doesn’t seem to have a feel for the heartbeat of the game at all. I know that’s not inherently a scum only trait, but it certainly feels like she doesn’t know how to insert herself into the game.
This, even more than the vote on Lastwhisper, is what feels like an authentic townie perspective to me. This type of read has a lot of depth to it, and I think townies makes this kind of read way more often, and scum struggle to fake them believably. This shows that Shadow actually has a read on the game – he is posting a lot in the thread and keeping up – and he is using it for something. And the read fits – I can definitely see where he is coming from. (And I even sort of agree with this perspective, I’ve been rethinking Nancy a bit between start of day and now. But I’ll talk about that in my Nancy post.)
I have continued pushing on Nancy noted down for 547, but I’m not sure what point I wanted to make about that post, so I’ll just leave it here, idk.
The post I actually love is 555, because this helps form the complete puzzle along with Shadow’s Last progression. Look at how damn annoyed he is that Gemma actually posts a reason to townread Nancy. He hates it. He grumbles. He moans like a wildebeast. Okay, I’m exaggerating. But my point is: when I see him get annoyed like this, it doesn’t feel like he’s pushing any sort of agenda. It feels like he hates Nancy’s posts the same way he hates Last’s, and he is truly annoyed at the possibility they might just be town. I don’t think scum shows this sort of annoyance that people aren’t accepting their pushes. Not outwardly.
I actually have a more significant issue than "he could be frustrated on a dtyle level as a wolf".
I personally think it fits very well with scum getting frustrated, actually- not that it doesn't fit with villager, but "wolf being frustrated his mislynch isn't gonna be one" is very much a thing and it feels like a strong fit for both of these.
Roz:
I already talked about his Roz push yesterday, but I think now I see the pattern makes sense. Shadow gets really annoyed when people don’t go for the people he is pushing. 747 is his vote post where he just… clearly hates Roz and wants her dead. There’s more posts of him pushing her. The biggest one that I liked yesterday was 1002. There’s others, but I think I highlighted these in yesterday’s post and I think we all saw those, so I won’t repeat them. But again, I think his aggressiveness here (and especially compared to how he handled Last and Nancy) is a good thing.
The fact that he handles these three pushes in different ways depending on his level of confidence, but that we can see the same underlying threads connecting them and his mindset, is what what makes me think he is town. Ultimately, like I said yesterday, the frustration and stubbornness in all three cases feels real to me, not an agenda. And if it was an agenda, he’d cover it up more.
Some other posts I liked from Shadow:
- Early shade on Sheep in 49 and 51 for being hedgey. Honestly, sheep is such an easy mislynch for scum that I don’t think scum will usually start shading him off the bat, because they can get in trouble for it when sheep flips town. Either way it feels like a good callout. (If sheep is w I guess this can be distancing but whatever)
- 698 is a good point against Rhand which also lines up with how I’m seeing Rhand’s posts. (though I’m not convinced Rhand has to be scum)
Ultimately, I have to agree with Lissa that I really don’t get where most of the Shadow suspicion is even coming from. Like I remember seeing people say that he wasn’t doing enough, or something? When he’s been in the thread it feels more than almost anyone and has made a lot of good reads.
Beyond that, I just generally like his attitude for… sort-of similar reasons to why I like Gemma’s. Shadow has a lot of “I’m so excited to be playing” posts and, quite frankly, yes they are awkward, but I really don’t think his strategy as scum would be to just… fake it and try to convince everyone how excited he is? That doesn’t even seem like the kind of scum player he is, to me. (Though I’ve never seen his scum game)
I wanna talk about Shadow/Gemma interactions seperately, so that'll be another post.
A lot of the rest of this just... doesn't do much for me.
I have been struggling to keep my eyes open to some degree for the past hour and a half and I'm increasingly like... dropping trains of thought as I try to fish up easy words to write them out so I'm gonna go to bed I guess.
They hated the part of your Gemma read where you loved that she came around to Reg town, that you were pretty much just giving her points for townreading your slot.
that's bull*****, i said she looks town for it because she literally had the progression to continue pushing reg as scum - she spent the entire day basically saying that he wasn't really himself, wasn't as invested as usual, etc etc, listed him as scum, and then she totally turned it around when she did not have to. it would have been easy for her to just keep reg in her scumlist and she'd have zero problem getting away with that mislynch if she was scum since vaimes and shadow (the others who know reg) both agreed with it. so it absolutely is a reason to give her town points and YOU are the one simplifying it if you think its just "she's town because she townread me". i would've said the same thing about anyone who has a similar progression, and in fact I did, I gave nancy town points for setting herself up to push you and then just completely turning it around. i made that read based on reg being a player in the game who i happen to know is town, it has NOTHING do with the fact that reg is myself.
They thought the Gemma wall was a bunch of words to look like you cared while talking about the least useful possible target, and straight up wasting time.
i don't need to talk about this anymore. have they met me? have you met me? a lot of words to talk about a townread? ok. again, we've already discussed this and shown that a lot of people in the game didn't even have gemma as that concensus anyway. and i just refuse to take any more ***** because i went in order and started with townreads. and quite frankly i find it hard to believe that this is something your team actually thinks, it feels like they gave you a reason to justify the scumread and they're just sticking with it. wasting time? we have 2 weeks and i wanted to explain my reads as best as i possibly could. like did that time i spent talking about gemma get used up when i could've spent it on something else...? i don't get it.
They feel pretty strongly that you are a wolf and need to die.
but why? because so far it's just the same reasons you said days ago. gave gemma townpoints for her progression on reg. and wrote a lot about gemma, a "concensus" townread. and at this point i just don't believe that you/they believe those are strong reasons. because i just asked you for reasons why i should be "buried" and i get the same reasons you gave nearly a week ago.
I don't really understand why any of this is separate from the respective Gemma/Shadow towncases. Or more so I don't know why it specifically deserved like a big focused post? An interaction being v/v (which I hate how a lot of people apply but idk that this is one of that kind of cases) should just be about the solviness of the individual players. A bit of the early stuff here sort of makes sense to separate, the rest is largely just individually liking their reads on each other and I don't really get why that isn't where you put it I guess?
it's a separate post because in my notes i had a separate section for things that were specifically about gemma/shadow interactions together, whereas the other posts were about them in isolation. i thought i had more to say but i ultimately didn't, which i said at the top of the post, that i wanted to be able to make more of a case but i didn't actually have much. and i wanted to post it separately because i wanted to tie together the two reads and explain why shadow/gemma was my sort of "towncore" that i was intending to work with. i realized as i was writing it that some of the stuff i was saying about their solving each other (particularly on gemma's side) was already stuff i had talked about in my gemma post but oh well.
Shadow, vaimes, and dels - why are your votes on town? Give me the tldr of why I'm scum. I'll read the thread when I get some time.
Hi Hunger!
You know, I actually think I recognize you... I played a game here once, many many years ago. Account name was "Dels" and I just couldn't get back into into that username with this new twitch thing, it wouldn't let me.
(Don't go look at, I was like 18 or something and it's probably embarrassing >_> I remember I idled out because I couldn't handle the 2-week days, as did everyone else from my homeboard who came to play)
You'll notice that it's not really a scum case. Ultimately, it's a PoE thing. I just... really trust Gemma, my team trusts Vaimes strongly, we think Nancy is town, KJ is the vig, and I thiiink Shadow is still town, leaving me with just... you, sheep, and Lissa.
I know that sucks if you are town because there is nothing to argue against. You know Rhand is town, so if you have any thoughts on that stuff you could share it. (But I know not everyone tries to defend their slot's previous player) I promise I am a very reasonable person though and highly susceptible to rethinking things, so if you are town, please let's work together so that I can come around to townreading you. I just... don't make any promises.
ok i’ve been waiting literally 5 hours to post, and no one has posted so i’m just writing this and c/ping it over whenever anyone posts. gemma, from now on please even if you’re taking time away from posting, if you see 3 of my posts in a row, please post. >_> this goes for anyone else too, if you can.
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i think lissa is just a wolf at this point.
i don’t feel any real attempt on her part to solve my allignment or interact with me.
i asked her to explain the reasons why she (and her team) feel i am scum and she gave me the same exact stuff she gave me a week ago.
like, a week ago i started by posting my gemma read and she said it was weird that i started with that (and then weird that i said i was excited to) and she named ONE part of the gemma read she didn’t like: that i gave gemma townpoints for ultimately concluding reg was town.
i ask her now, a week later, what are the reasons for me to be buried, she cites the same two things as her main reasons. it’s completely ignoring everything i have done since then. it feels like she can’t make an actual case so she’s just sticking to something really weak and outdated. (i’ve said this too but that’s literally playstyle stuff – i talk about town reads, etc. lissa knows this. and see above for why she’s simplifying the gemma/reg read)
beyond that i just keep getting the feeling that she is posting just to post. she keeps saying she needs time at her computer to post, she has a lot to say, etc, but whenever she does, i find its stuff that i just… have no response to. see: her thoughts about the rhand stuff earlier. (1604 no postlink just scroll up) she goes through my thoughts on rhand in quote chunks but all she really says in each of them is basically that she disagrees/leans towards the town reasons. i tried to respond to it and i just… there’s nothing to say. it doesn’t feel like a meaningful conversation. and that’s how i’ve felt about most of the responses i’ve gotten from lissa.
i said a week ago that i wanted to work with lissa because if she was town we should be able to get on the same page. and i just… haven’t got anything. i have a high high level of respect and love for lissa and i just think if she was town, we’d be getting along a lot better than this.
Now.
Now.
And this is the important part so everyone should read this, even if you disagree.
@Vaimes:
At some point, you are going to have to come around to the idea that I am town. Because right now I think we have solved or nearly solved this. I think the team is Rhand/Sheep/Lissa. If it’s not that, it’s Shadow in one of those places. (I still wanna look at Sheep to doublecheck but that’ll likely be tomorrow or later tonight.)
But let’s look at what’s actually happening in this game, because here is what I’ve been thinking about over the past few hours:
Gemma is town because she is. Vaimes is town because I’ve got a super strong team saying they’ve never read you wrong in 30 games and you are town. And Nancy is probably town because… she just is. I know, it’s lame. But, like… it is what it is. And the scum are probably frustrated about it because she’s someone they would want to mislynch. But =/. And then KJ is the vig
Now, I think those 4 are town, and I think those 4 basically cannot be lynched. Maybe Nancy, because she’s not in the exact same category as Gemma/Vaimes, but Gemma never is and unless my team changes their mind, they are likely going to hard-defend you using me as a mouthpiece if it ever somehow came up.
That leaves FIVE players who are NOT in the “townclear” section:
Myself, Shadow, Sheep, Lissa, Hungerhand
Theoretically, that list of five has three scum in it.
And with 9 players alive, tomorrow we are down to 7 if we mislynch, which is lylo. So two mislynches loses the game.
IF we believe that scum believe that the aforementioned four are not going to be lynched, then that means: the 3 scum in that list of 5 want to win by getting mislynches of the other 2.
i.e. If Lissa is scum with Sheep/Rhand, she wants to win by getting Shadow and Dels lynched.
Does that all make sense so far?
And the same thing applies to anyone else in that group.
And I think if we’re looking at what the team is and what their gameplan is, and worldbuilding and etc, we have to have this PoV in mind.
Now, I’m conf biasing here if I say that Lissa/Sheep/Rhand being the team explains why her top two suspects are Shadow and myself, with sheep as the 3rd. But it makes sense. And that’s why I started thinking about all of this, because both Lissa and Rhand voted me today, and both have Shadow as a suspect as well.
That’s not to say the team of 3 wants to win by getting 2 mislynches in a row. They could bus somewhere. Certainly, they might not have much of a choice if we’re on the right track and we have the whole team in our sights.
But that’s the dynamic that’s going on here, so at the very least, let’s be open about it so that we make it harder for the scum to maneuver.
(without looking at it much, i know that both sheep and shadow have townread me today, shadow wolfreads rhand, not sure his thoughts on lissa or sheep… @shadow? sheep’s list has rhand down to null, lissa as towny, shadow a bit under null)
I have some team thoughts to share regarding some aspects of this but I’ll do that later. Just wanted to get this all off my chest. Vaimes, let me know what you think. Because if you’re town then I think now is the time for us to start working together. What do you think of all this? Because it seems Gemma and I are both in almost exactly the same place right now, and I would like to be able to get on the same page with you. Because from my PoV, if we have 4 lynches left, I’m almost certain that lynching sheep/rhand/lissa/shadow in some order wins the game.
(And Gemma I started looking at all of Lissa’s posts re. Roz and I’ll write a bit about that when I have time to post later)
also i just realized no one answered this: @sheep. my team is voxx and newcomb. lol.
I agree that Lissa's push is bad and I think it's understandable that Dels is frustrated for being pushed on what is basically just good process.
and yes!
like "why did you write another post about gemma/shadow", i'm sorry, i was trying to post thoughts on an entire 26-page day phase! i'm sorry if some of it is overkill but i wouldn't have written it if i didn't feel it was useful.
omg gemma there were literally 8 hours between posts there. 8 HOURS.
(and I'll warn you here in advance I don't get the points for noticing what you notice, sorry)
Here is every post of Lissa's progression on Roz. I also ended up linking some other posts regarding her EoD progression.
Early Reactions to Roz: (can generally be summarized as saying that Roz's reasons to suspect her are wrong and/or bad) 502, 506, 515, 710
Defense turns to suspicion: 718, 725 (Vote is here)
Big gap until Roz posts her big post. Reaction to that: 1072, 1081, 1101
Some non-Roz related posts follow:
1109 - Resistant to a Shadow lynch because people's reasons for it aren't good 1122 - "Are the wagons shadow and rhand?" 1125 - Wants to lynch Wheat 1133 - Votes Wheat
The End: 1173 - Says she'll move back to Roz since can't make Wheat viable 1201 - Votes roz. 1230 - Final comment on Roz.
The summary of this is that Roz pushes Lissa, essentially for... well, very similar reasons to why I had Lissa in my PoE. Because Lissa hadn't done anything for sure townie yet. Lissa's defense is basically to say that sure, she hasn't, but this is a weak reason because she doesn't leave her wolf range day 1 anyway.
Lissa's vote gets placed on Roz (correct me if I'm wrong) because Lissa doesn't like that Roz is saying that about her when Roz doesn't actually have experience playing with her. And she thinks the read is "generic" and that Roz is just looking for something to push.
And then Lissa doesn't know how to react to Roz's big post, she tries to go for Wheat because she doesn't wanna lynch shadow/rhand, then goes back to Roz.
The above is all summarizing and linking in case anyone else wants to look at.
My thoughts:
I... in retrospect I probably would've liked Roz for this. Seems Roz plays very similarly to me in the end. lol. But anyway, I guess I feel like Roz's reason to suspect Lissa is... pretty valid, as far as day 1 reasons go. I don't see why Lissa had such a problem with it, but meh. I think I said about Lissa earlier that this felt a bit... like I didn't really get why it merited a countervote. But meh. Not a strong point for or against Lissa imo.
The interesting part is the EoD. What do people think of this? Is a Lissa/Shadow/Rhand team ever possible here? It looks like Lissa tried to start a Wheat wagon to protect Shadow/Rhand. But that'd be sort of on-the-nose if she's buddied with them. She also didn't have to leave Roz at all.
I guess that's where my biggest issue is. Roz's first big post was... uh... useless, to put it lightly. Roz's second post though had actual reads in it. I'm kind of not a fan of how Lissa doesn't seem to know how to react to the first one, but then she gets back on Roz without ever really having any thoughts about Roz's second post, which was far more substantial.
I guess the only other thing I can say is that Lissa's read on Roz doesn't really progress much from the initial reason for voting. But Roz didn't really post a lot, and when she did, it was EoD with that weird stuff.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
And to Gemma, you said... note the times when she swears...?
506 "Like people's ability to read my really earlygame is a ******* meme."
1122 "Are the wagons shadow and rhand? Wtf"
I uhhhhhh.... that's all I've got. >_> Can I have a hint?
OH and in 515 Lissa quoted a Roz post and says: "team thinks the repeated "mostly" is wolfy here" . I have zero idea if it means anything but Lissa's team said the same thing about me using the word "honestly" a lot.
better representation of where i'm currently at. something like lissa > rhand > sheep > shadow right now in terms of likelihood of them being the scum. ( continues to something like nancy > vaimes > gemma > KJ after that but i can't really order those because they are all for pretty different reasons)
Apparently I'm an ISO diver now. And on this forum where it's even harder to do.
Posts from Lissa with "wheat" in them:
Some early posts where she arrives at a sort of townlean on Wheat: (note there are a few more but they are very early reads that don't seem to play into the future progression so i didn't include) 244, 292, 299
Posts where she admits her read on Wheat needs further examining: 735, 803
947 - Only post about wheat between that and the vote. Explains a thing she dislikes.
1132 is where she explains what makes her vote Wheat. See above links showing her EoD progression, not relinking them here.
[disclaimer it's possible where i missed some where she doesn't reference wheat by name. ctrl+f can only do so much.]
What do people think?
Looking at it, I feel... the progression is a lot less clear than I'd expect. She does explain why some Wheat posts bother her.
The initial vote on Wheat, the justification is... "Felt like he stuck out like a sore thumb among my townreads so I read him over again + why I backed off him and I wasn't really satisfied with it." It's... not really a lot considering he's then 2nd from bottom? Maybe I am missing some other posts but at a glance I don't think I am. Granted, day 1 read, it's fine.
But she says she's gonna be looking more into her Wheat read, but she doesn't seem to ever really get anywhere, just votes him anyway. She does list a few points against him though. She mostly votes him though for one very recent thing he did, not as a result of any new looking into it she's done.
@Lissa Can you explain your Wheat read throughout day 1 and help fill in some of the gaps between those posts? How much was Wheat a scumread after the initial vote, and what did your further looking into Wheat give you to make you want to vote him?
Dels, you're allowed to post a fourth, fifth, etc time after an hour has passed since your last post.
I FORGOT LMAO
I JUST POSTED 4-POSTED BY ACCIDENT
I started writing that post thinking I'd only press "post reply" once someone else posted
but by the time I finished writing it all i completely forgot and hit "post" without thinking!
I WAITED 8 HOURS EARLIER TO MAKE A 4TH POST - AND THEN I DID IT HERE BY ACCIDENT
LOL
and I completely forgot until just now that you already told me that! i didn't have to wait!
Rip
I had a funny moment a couple of days ago where I was writing things to Lissa, I don't remember what it was in response to but I nearly said to her "well you haven't done anything AI" then I was like, waaaaaait. Heh.
I kind of want to let other people respond to your recent posts before I do if that's okay. You didn't quite hit on the roz thing. I don't think anyone is going to get the swearing thing.
Wrt lynching, I think it's sheep/Lissa + 1 of Hunger/shadow, would lynch either of sheep/Lissa as they both lock Nancy as town which I think just seals this. I can see the merit in lynching Lissa while we're both alive to shove on her since she's obviously a harder lynch than sheep. I do think this is pretty unloseable unless I'm wrong on you or Von and I don't think I am.
Lynching one and vigging the other probably looks the same regardless of the order, except that if we lynch sheep and vig Lissa then we kind of force mafia to block KJ over shadow in the world where Lissa/shadow is w/v, which would give us more information for day 3.
I am pretty convinced that sheep/Lissa is w/w, but in the world where Lissa is town then 1 of Dels/Vaimes would have to be mafia, so lynching Lissa over sheep has the benefit of clearing that up (and it's almost always just Dels in that world, since Dels town would require me/Newcomb/Voxx all being pocketed by Vaimes and just no).
So yeah I guess I don't mind much either way, I think they're both hits, lynch one vig the other, sort shadow/Hunger tomorrow.
Okay nevermind, Shadow did actually post a readslist which gives insight into his views
Shadow
Gemma
Lissa
Dels
Vaimes
Killjoy
Sheep
Nancy
Rhand
So I was a bit wrong about my Nancy talk, actually. I had my team's thoughts in the forefront of my mind, plus remembered Gemma was clearing Nancy as well. (Lissa too) But Shadow does actually still have Nancy as scum, and I remember Vaimes didn't fully agree with our read. So Nancy might not necessarily be "someone who scum don't think they can get lynched"?
That said, the interesting thing is Shadow's read on Lissa.
In 1486 he says that Lissa is "always town", so it's actually a pretty strong read. The Vaimes read doesn't seem strong so much as he just isn't considering a scum!Vaimes right now? And I'm below Lissa, which is... sort of surprising considering Shadow was suspicious of Reg day one and others have given me a much tougher time?
But with KJ claimed vig, and based on his Rhand vote + his listing things he dislikes about Sheep, it seems like Shadow's team right now is Sheep/Hungerhand/Nancy.
I guess the interesting thing is that he has townreads on both me and Lissa. Doesn't exactly fit with the "scum agenda" I have in mind. But if he's scum with, like, Lissa and one of rhand/sheep then it could make sense? Idk. Just thinking out loud here really.
@Shadow sorry 'cause I already @'d you earlier but can you explain some of your overall view today with a bit more depth? how likely do you feel your bottom 3 are to be the team? if they're not, what's going on? and just generally curious your thoughts on my big gamestate post earlier, plus lissa stuff. what makes her so strong a read? and if you'll indulge my own selfishness, can you explain the TR on me a bit more? just feels a bit weird that others have given me a pretty tough time and you didn't.
You misread his post, he said Lissa is always town IF Nancy is mafia.
Re: Nancy, I'm not clearing her just yet. I think she's probably town for a few reasons that could be stronger, and she's unaligned with both of my scum reads. I would lock clear her with a Lissa scum flip and would clear her until LyLo with a sheep scum flip.
i wouldn't say i'm "clearing" nancy either but my team and i just... think she's just town. it's not just for that stuff, but the fact that we have other reasons to feel that way makes me pretty confident in it. i do agree those anti-aligns seem likely though.
also yes gemma it is okay if you don't comment on the lissa stuff =P
i'm... kinda tired now but. can you explain the lynch one vig the other stuff? is it necessary/smart to shoot tonight? if we lynch one person in the PoE and they flip town, do we want to shoot another before reassessing? if the PoE is right then likely you hit scum i guess. and if we lynch someone and they flip scum do you shoot? sorry, i know i'm dumb, i am just bad with role stuff and theory. just want to make sure i understand the rationale behind it. i'm actually too tired to process again so i'll read in the morning. good night.
i wouldn't say i'm "clearing" nancy either but my team and i just... think she's just town. it's not just for that stuff, but the fact that we have other reasons to feel that way makes me pretty confident in it. i do agree those anti-aligns seem likely though.
also yes gemma it is okay if you don't comment on the lissa stuff =P
i'm... kinda tired now but. can you explain the lynch one vig the other stuff? is it necessary/smart to shoot tonight? if we lynch one person in the PoE and they flip town, do we want to shoot another before reassessing? if the PoE is right then likely you hit scum i guess. and if we lynch someone and they flip scum do you shoot? sorry, i know i'm dumb, i am just bad with role stuff and theory. just want to make sure i understand the rationale behind it. i'm actually too tired to process again so i'll read in the morning. good night.
Heh, it's neither necessary nor smart, I'm just lazily assuming my reads are right. If we lynch scum, then a misvig loses us a lynch, which is obviously not ideal. If we mislynch today the vig has to holster without question, because a misvig would lead to overrun.
If they are w/w, though, what we get out of it is a) to confirm that with the flip, and b) to force mafia to choose between using their block on KJ to save a partner and using their block on shadow (if he's town). If they use their block on KJ, they'll be forced into a suboptimal kill (presumably Vaimes) since they can't kill me until they've taken care of the protective. I'm kind of assuming they have a blocker, I don't know what roles they give scum here. Blocker generally just makes a lot of a sense with a full tracker having flipped.
Anyway we don't really need to think too much about this yet, and I'm still holding out on Nancy being replaced so that I can potentially get there on her slot and not have to worry at all about worlds where she's being miscleared and Lissa is town. But like, in the world where she is mafia then all my reads are wrong, so, not a serious concern.
Lynching one and vigging the other probably looks the same regardless of the order, except that if we lynch sheep and vig Lissa then we kind of force mafia to block KJ over shadow in the world where Lissa/shadow is w/v, which would give us more information for day 3.
I am pretty convinced that sheep/Lissa is w/w, but in the world where Lissa is town then 1 of Dels/Vaimes would have to be mafia, so lynching Lissa over sheep has the benefit of clearing that up (and it's almost always just Dels in that world, since Dels town would require me/Newcomb/Voxx all being pocketed by Vaimes and just no).
So yeah I guess I don't mind much either way, I think they're both hits, lynch one vig the other, sort shadow/Hunger tomorrow.
I guess it doesn't have to be Dels in that world, I don't think I'm lock sold on shadow/Rhand being unaligned and I'm not sure I would lynch Dels over Nancy even with a sheep wolf flip if it came to that. I really don't think it ever does come to that. I'm not entirely sure I can believe that anyone in this game could still be scum reading Dels after their post about Lissa and their world view. I think most of this just speaks to how likely it is that Lissa is a wolf here.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Dels/(sorta Gemma too): I think there’s a pretty good chance that the team is just Hunger/Nancy/sheep, yeah.
As such, if you think lynching sheep/Lissa accomplishes much the same thing, then I absolutely think a sheep lynch is the correct choice here.
In a world where Nancy is town, which I just...I don’t buy that clear on her, bu in that world, I would reconsider Lissa, but I also kind of think I’d have to reconsider Dels.
I don’t think it’s Dels though; I think scum!Dels’ team tells him to take the opportunity he had when he came into the game to jump on the push on me, because I’m pretty sure they know that once that mislynch momentum is gone, it won’t come back. That might be vain of me, but it’s where I’m at. (Also, there’s something to be said for WIM...actually, just for my own sanity, Dels, what’s your preferred alignment and why?)
I will consider what hunger does with this game, but again, I don’t think that slot is ever town, and I’m especially for that lynch because it basically clears me (unless you want to say I’m scum bussing, which... )
I would compromise with a sheep lynch, but I won’t support a Lissa lynch.
~~~~~
I kinda want to color some votecounts, but I think that can just wait until tomorrow for another eod to look at. And Gemma already did one.
Ooookay. I took a full look at all of sheep's posts. Warning in advance I have no real conclusions, but I'm gonna lay out anything interesting I saw so people can look for themselves. Use this post if you wanna enhance your read on sheep, otherwise ignore. My focus was on: Any posts where sheep gives/explains a read. I didn't actually ISO, I ctrl+f'd sheepsaysmeep on every page so i could see the context, why sheep was giving the read he was giving. (edit after writing post: this paragraph is a total lie, this actually ends up being a lot and i came to some pretty big conclusions. i would suggest reading it, because i think i've noticed some really important things)
Posts where Sheep displays early suspicion on Gemma and Shadow: 40 - Dislikes Gemma's entrance and Shadow's townread on Gemma, both lean w but not w/w together 43 - This is where sheep said Gemma prefers scum, which was later said to be untrue 44 - Votes Shadow 55 - Doesn't like Gemma's reads, feels like Gemma trying to pocket sheep by giving him the early TR
i have no opinion on this except that i don't really agree with the suspicion on either gemma or shadow, thought their entrances were pretty natural. maybe sheep is just paranoid though.
Continued Day 1 posts re. Shadow/Gemma: 173 - Sheep asks Wheat why Wheat scumreads shadow/gemma 285 - Still has them as w leans at 285 286 - Has an issue with Wheat scumreading Gemma for being excited. This is the one that bothers me because didn't sheep... also scumread Gemma for her early excitement? @Sheep can you explain why you asked Wheat to clarify him suspecting the same two people as you? 645 - Still has the Gemma read and explains why, check it out. I'm noting the "Gemma's scumgame is really strong" because I wonder if this is a copout reason sheep is using to hold onto the Gemma suspicion?
Posts where Sheep uses meta knowledge to read people: 70 - Sheep explains his meta with people. Nancy Drew of course he said earlier is an easy read. Note that he only played "one game with wisp where he didn't post much" (this is relevant soon)
225 - "nancy drew is gun to my head town" 426 - Dislikes Nancy's easy townread on sheep. Note consistency with sheep disliking people who TR him. 467 - Feels better about Nancy Drew. Between last post and this one is the bulk of the Nancy/Lissa argument, where (imo) Nancy reacted in a pretty town!Nancy way, so this makes sense. Also 428 where Nancy admits the TR was too strong/too easy. 645 - "nancy had something i disliked here and there but overall pretty towny" 1320 - day 2 readslist, nancy "towny". 1321 - day 2, wonders why nancy hasn't posted more. (nancy is... on vacation? so...?)
94 - Wisp waaayy different from his scumgame 592 - Defines Wisp's scumgame as more awkward, less intent to solve 1189 - Maintains that Wisp can't be scum this game.
This section I think is the strongest reason for why sheep could be town. First, the wisp stuff. Remember that Sheep said he only played one game with wisp. Sheep didn't set himself up as a wisp meta expert. So a scum!sheep doesn't have to meta-defend Wisp. But he does it anyway, a really strong defense, completely rules out the possibility of ever suspecting Wisp. Maybe this is because, as we've discussed, LW wasn't ever going to be a lynch anyway? But it does look good for Sheep. The other thing is the Nancy read. I know we already know this, but my god they are unlikely to be w/w, right? The interesting thing is that even though sheep calls Nancy an easy read from meta, Sheep's read on Nancy doesn't really come that easily, it's a bit turbulent at times (and still is to this very day). It ultimately ends up at townread every time though. I think if Sheep is scum and Nancy is town, Sheep can't get away with a scumread after saying he can read Nancy well. So it could be that Sheep is trying to not give Nancy the fullclear here? But in that case, why set yourself up as an expert Nancy reader at all? He has no problem giving Wisp the fullpass. So why not Nancy? I know the answer to all of this could just be "because scum do things sometimes" and, yeah, fair enough, but the nuanced progression on Nancy does actually look good. Very curious your thoughts on this, Gemma and anyone else.
Posts where Sheep townreads Lissa: 259 - Townpoints to Lissa. Reason quoted. 282 - Expands on why townpoints to Lissa 424 - Says Lissa's interaction with Nancy super villagery. (We all know which interaction this is)
Day 1 Various other notable reads: 75 - Gives Gemma/Wisp a not-w/w read, likely for this (74) chain of posts. (my opinion: eh? considering sheep already thought gemma was scum it's a bit of an odd read, it essentially means last town atm). 225 - Dislikes Reg townreading him for the early stuff. This is consistent with Sheep disliking Gemma's townread on him. 230 - Expands on Regfan read. 285 - Rhand null. idk why. 467 - Townreads Rhand for this post. No reason given. 741 - Starts to have an issue with Wheat
Approaching end of day: 902 - This seems important. This is where sheep starts to take EoD lynch stances. He's okay with shadow or eevee, NOT with wheat, and sheep explains that a previous point against Wheat was a misunderstanding. +townpoints for reasonableness tbh. 1064 - Sheep says a Roz lynch should happen if Roz refuses to claim despite being top wagon 1150 - Sheep continues to hate Roz's behaviour. 1154 - Votes Roz. Says a wheat lynch would be eh, and rhand lynch would be bad.
Day 2: 1314 - Notable early sort of defense of me from Rhand's question. 1320 - Reads list.
Note Gemma and Shadow still a "bit under null". Gemma called this out earlier saying why is she still there, I agree, that read looks stagnant as hell. Also noting the Lissa read. She has the same reason for townreading Lissa. I associate town!Sheep with constantly updating reads and throwing out new "ok X is looking better now" "hmmm X made a bad post actually, maybe they're not town" "nvm X looking better" and in this moment, my god am I feeling the Lissa/Sheep team here.
1391 - thinks Gemma's play is joke/fps because wolf gemma wouldn't seriously do that. (note this is where the "dels reaction towny af" stuff is but not linking 'cause we've already all seen/discussed that) 1463 - Finally admits that Gemma's recent posting is better but still paranoid about her scumgame
Ooooookay.
So.
That ended up being a LOT more than I expected. You can sort of see my thoughts jump around here because I didn't edit anything.
So what do I think is the case for town!Sheep? Mostly just the Nancy/Wisp meta reads looking good. I really do think that. If Sheep is scum, it's good play.
But towards the end there, I... I'm kind of feeling just hit in the face with all sorts of things that I never saw before, that make me think Sheep is scum.
The Gemma read. It's stagnant. It's justified with paranoia. It starts on page 1 of the game and it never really changes until it gets called out day 2.
The Lissa read too. My god, the Lissa read. Sheep TR's Lissa for her Nancy progression and interaction essentially, and... that's it.
The Shadow read too. Where does it go? Sheep has Shadow as a w lean all day but never really seems to have much to say about the potential Shadow lynch near EoD? He says a shadow lynch is good but then he sort of just... goes for Roz? Because of Roz's refusal to claim, which is... fair enough I guess.
And most importantly. After seeing the "rhand null" post, followed by the "rhand lynch is bad" near EoD, I just went through sheep's ISO and ctrl+f'd "rhand".
Here is EVERY post in the game from sheep with "rhand" in it: 285, 301, 465, 467, 580, 1154, 1320
Okay, I did miss the post where he gave rhand a townread since it was unclear that that's why he was quoting it. But. This is... a really weak progression. Null. No reason given. Townread for one post. Then has Rhand as town in readslist and calls Rhand a bad lynch. Today after Rhand gets heat for his EoD, Rhand is down to null again. No reason given.
This REALLY looks like a sheep/rhand/lissa team. And I swear I'm not confbiasing because I honestly went into this thinking I might come out of it saying "actually sheep is okay, maybe it's actually shadow" It COULD be sheep/shadow somehow since sheep never really pushes shadow, just (i think?) leaves a vote on him all day but then switches to roz when things count? ... **** it could. i'm just going insane at this point lol i don't even know anymore. but i think sheep actually makes sense with the other 3 people in PoE.
Please tell me if I'm crazy or if you're seeing what I'm seeing here.
...Anyway, besides that stuff, I pointed out anything I feel is relevant, so feel free to share thoughts on any of it.
okay i just want to make sure i'm not crazy for saying sheep fits with the other 3 people in my PoE. its possible i could see sheep as fitting with anyone because sheep never gives strong reads/progressions in general.
but that's not true, right? sheep doesn't fit with nancy because of obv reasons. sheep doesn't fit with gemma because of his nonstop paranoia of her. though by that logic he doesn't fit with shadow either so nvm, i was overreacting on that. sheep wouldn't have fit with LW for the super-super-defense. sheep wouldn't have fit with Roz, for, y'know, the vote. sheep doesn't fit with me because idk why the hell would i write all this about sheep after defending him earlier if we are w/w.
So I don't think I'm just confbiasing for seeing ways that sheep makes sense with rhand/lissa/shadow. am I?
shadow, re. nancy: fair enough, i get why you wouldn't clear for it. i dunno what to tell you other than that i disagree. i wasn't really all-in on it at first but at this point, all my years of experience are practically screaming at me that if we lynched nancy, she would just flip town. my team seems to agree, it's come up a decent amount and they just... really don't think she is scum. i think gemma and i have both made our cases for why she's town beyond that, and i also think the anti-aligns are real, so there's not much else i can say to convince you. you really think sheep/nancy could be w/w? can you take a look at the section of my sheep ISO above where i linked all of sheep's posts about nancy, and let me know your thoughts?
my preferred alignment is town because being a wolf sucks and i'm bad at it (or at least, i am nowadays, i didn't use to be) and i get very very self-conscious about it. it's stressful, and in my recent wolf games, i've realized that i just... don't know how to do it. i also just really really really hate lying to people.
Okay, at this point I've done just about everything I can possibly do for this game. I've posted more in half a phase than I probably should in an entire phase. I've said all that I can possibly say about every player in this game.
So I'm gonna dial it down and try to chill for the next week. Give people like sheep, KJ, Hunger, Nancy (if she ever comes back) a chance to actually read everything and catch up.
I'll be following along so tag me if you have any questions or responses and etc, there's just no point in me overloading the thread and I don't really have anything else to say, pretty happy with these conclusions and I'll go mad if I don't figure out how to stay patient because we're not getting a flip for another week anyway.
I think all my cards are on the table at this point, so it is what it is.
The only thing I said I'd do but never did was post stuff about Vaimes, but he is likely just town so there's no point. I'll add postnums to my d1 notes at some point before EoD and share them just in case I die and anyone wants to look at it, but whatever. I'm not writing an actual casepost about Vaimes.
my team said that shadow's vote is "sticky" which i think means it looks stagnant and maybe looks like one of those "just vote your buddy and never move, unnaturally" type of bus votes
they said it's prime bussing position at the peak of the rhand wagon in 1.9, and that he ends there as well. (this isn't really accurate, he moves over to roz for quite a while. actually @shadow why did you end back on rhand? you seemed pretty anti-roz?)
i said i don't really agree, they were pretty against each other. my team said, but were they really pushing it in a way that'd get the other person lynched? i said, eh, shadow did switch his vote roz eventually and only went back to rhand when rhand was clearly not gonna happen. and rhand moved to roz, and hey i remember rhand's post saying he's abandoning the shadow wagon because not enough people were interested in it.
my team said is shadow hardpushing rhand today? i said sort of, shadow is voting rhand, but not really pushing heavily. my team said they think shadow should be more intensely against rhand considering it was the counterwagon to a townie and they ended on it. they said shadow could be pushing it for credit, not because he really believes it. they said maybe the fact that neither was trying to get "credit" means its not w/w, but they think it'd be a pretty lackluster strategy if shadow was w and rhand was v.
i have no strong opinions on this stuff but @vaimes i think this is more your alley? i think my team makes a good point though that shadow/rhand could be together, think my team thoughts earlier saying it's definitely not-w/w is a bit premature.
Dels, read my earlier posts about sheep/Rhand and Rhand/shadow. I don't think I talked in much depth because phone but I basically came to the same conclusions as you did, sheep's EoD looks strongly w/w with Rhand, weakly w/w with shadow, and otherwise pretty villagery. He makes a lot of sense with Lissa, too. I think his most likely teams are sheep/Lissa/Rhand, sheep/Rhand/shadow, sheep/Lissa/shadow in that order of likelihood. I also don't think Rhand/shadow are unaligned, I think they're aligned if anything, I came into the day phase leaning pretty heavily on Rhand/shadow + 1 worlds.
@Dels/(sorta Gemma too): I think there’s a pretty good chance that the team is just Hunger/Nancy/sheep, yeah.
As such, if you think lynching sheep/Lissa accomplishes much the same thing, then I absolutely think a sheep lynch is the correct choice here.
In a world where Nancy is town, which I just...I don’t buy that clear on her, bu in that world, I would reconsider Lissa, but I also kind of think I’d have to reconsider Dels.
I don’t think it’s Dels though; I think scum!Dels’ team tells him to take the opportunity he had when he came into the game to jump on the push on me, because I’m pretty sure they know that once that mislynch momentum is gone, it won’t come back. That might be vain of me, but it’s where I’m at. (Also, there’s something to be said for WIM...actually, just for my own sanity, Dels, what’s your preferred alignment and why?)
I will consider what hunger does with this game, but again, I don’t think that slot is ever town, and I’m especially for that lynch because it basically clears me (unless you want to say I’m scum bussing, which... )
I would compromise with a sheep lynch, but I won’t support a Lissa lynch.
~~~~~
I kinda want to color some votecounts, but I think that can just wait until tomorrow for another eod to look at. And Gemma already did one.
I would really appreciate it if you went into a lot more detail about all of this, but none of it makes sense to me.
Talk about how Nancy/sheep can be a team. Talk about why Nancy is mafia in a way that actually engages with the reasoning put forth about her rather than just writing it off or calling something it isn't.
Talk about your Lissa town read.
Talk about why you've barely been pushing Rhand slot all game despite having a strong scum read. Talk about why you're rolling your eyes at the idea that anyone could think you're together.
Talk about why you're content with a sheep lynch when you have what looks like a lock scum read on Hunger.
Talk about why Nancy town would mean you would have to reconsider Dels.
To be completely frank, none of these thoughts seem real to me. Your reasoning for town reading Dels ignores the vast majority of his content this game over a narrow view of his read on you, and the way you've phrased it as a mislynch momentum thing feels self-serving and fake, like the real point of the read is to suggest that you're town more than that Dels is town. Your view of the game seems extremely disjointed.
@Dels once we have some content from Hunger, we should start thinking about what lynch we think is best today to take care of all worlds, because I'm not convinced it's Lissa and I'm fairly torn between sheep/Hunger/shadow. Part of me thinks it may be better to lynch/vig in Hunger/shadow since we always have at least one hit in there, and sheep isn't remotely an endgame threat.
I might be getting my laptop back today which is really exciting, I can stop living in hell maybe!
Vaimes
I knew I wouldn't have much time to post or read the thread right away and want to interact. I happen to know for a fact you are either misguided or scum so I'd like an interaction point with you and your view on me/the game state. Why's it so hard to explain a read? Also, if the rest of the game is as wall-y as this page...I might not actually read the whole thing.
Dels
Sounds familiar! Actually, I think I know what game it was. First game with Sir Chris and crew from Gamefaqs? I think we scum read each other the first couple days and were t/t.
I don't think I have a massively different overall worldview to gemma, it boils down to a fairly similar poe overall, but I don't really understand the rhand stuff at all? Just like why he is casually top wagon for a while I guess. I guess he was the counter yesterday but I could so easily just forget entirely I'm confused by that in the first place as well. It's a little disorienting as a threadstate thing and I should probably dig into it and get a better grasp so I can engage with it better.
Idk I'd love to clean up my reads on rhand and nancy because I think it's dels/shadow/sheep but I don't feel superstrong about the last part but neither is ******* posting. I really want to be able to get one clear in there and the reads I have feel stale and insufficient.
Dels_8 - 2 (Rhand, Lissa)
sheepsaysmeep - 1 (Gemma)
Not Voting - 3 (Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39, sheepsaysmeep)
Game is solved I think.
My feelings toward that always amounted to the former; I think it was the original base of my read, before that one post where I locked him in.
I don't really think most wolves go about it in... that way so heavily though? Like that kind of read as a whole.
It isn't super off to me but I'll leave it to him to actually explain if he ever resurfaces.
could and would are two separate (intertwined, but separate) things
some of both are relevant here, i think, but mostly it isn't really that simple as "can" or "can't" it's "how well" even within ability
and this actually goes somewhere i swear
is something like that fakeable? probably. did/do i think he faked this particular case based on the specifics and also the "would he want to" end of things? no, not really.
also, i think it's rather uncomfortable to take this particular approach as a wolf for most people.
I don't think that's in "scum won't do it" territory at all in the average case and beyond that I don't think frustration beyond an extremely overarching background thing is even happening there, it's pretty subtle/internal not super "outward".
At this point I think I pinpointed a couple of things that were bothering me in general about these walls.
They feel largely surface level to me a lot of the time. Like you're wolfreading rhand for not thinking in a way that makes sense to you basically afaik?
And also the "shadow wouldn't point out a problem in a case someone was pushing", feel like that's like, on the nuance level of "a wolf wouldn't refute a townread on them" which is a pretty commonly subertved thing.
The main bigger thing for me here is that I think shadow would be genuinely annoyed with LW as a wolf? As an overarching issue I have with the things you're saying up to here, you're assuming real frustration = town.
I do agree with the "being different" thing to a degree.
I actually have a more significant issue than "he could be frustrated on a dtyle level as a wolf".
I personally think it fits very well with scum getting frustrated, actually- not that it doesn't fit with villager, but "wolf being frustrated his mislynch isn't gonna be one" is very much a thing and it feels like a strong fit for both of these.
A lot of the rest of this just... doesn't do much for me.
I have been struggling to keep my eyes open to some degree for the past hour and a half and I'm increasingly like... dropping trains of thought as I try to fish up easy words to write them out so I'm gonna go to bed I guess.
RhandHunger - 3 (shadowlancerx, Vaimes, Dels_8)Dels_8 - 2 (
RhandHunger, Lissa)sheepsaysmeep - 1 (Gemma)
Not Voting - 3 (Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39, sheepsaysmeep)
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
The deadline is 2200BST on August 18th (about a week from now).
Hunger is replacing Rhand, effective immediately.
Nancy is V/LA until the 16th. She may be replaced.
Gemma
roz
LW
WG
KJ
Vaimes
Nancy
Dels
shadow
Hunger
Lissa
sheep
I have a busy weekend so probably won't get caught up immediately.
that's bull*****, i said she looks town for it because she literally had the progression to continue pushing reg as scum - she spent the entire day basically saying that he wasn't really himself, wasn't as invested as usual, etc etc, listed him as scum, and then she totally turned it around when she did not have to. it would have been easy for her to just keep reg in her scumlist and she'd have zero problem getting away with that mislynch if she was scum since vaimes and shadow (the others who know reg) both agreed with it. so it absolutely is a reason to give her town points and YOU are the one simplifying it if you think its just "she's town because she townread me". i would've said the same thing about anyone who has a similar progression, and in fact I did, I gave nancy town points for setting herself up to push you and then just completely turning it around. i made that read based on reg being a player in the game who i happen to know is town, it has NOTHING do with the fact that reg is myself.
i don't need to talk about this anymore. have they met me? have you met me? a lot of words to talk about a townread? ok. again, we've already discussed this and shown that a lot of people in the game didn't even have gemma as that concensus anyway. and i just refuse to take any more ***** because i went in order and started with townreads. and quite frankly i find it hard to believe that this is something your team actually thinks, it feels like they gave you a reason to justify the scumread and they're just sticking with it. wasting time? we have 2 weeks and i wanted to explain my reads as best as i possibly could. like did that time i spent talking about gemma get used up when i could've spent it on something else...? i don't get it.
but why? because so far it's just the same reasons you said days ago. gave gemma townpoints for her progression on reg. and wrote a lot about gemma, a "concensus" townread. and at this point i just don't believe that you/they believe those are strong reasons. because i just asked you for reasons why i should be "buried" and i get the same reasons you gave nearly a week ago.
it's a separate post because in my notes i had a separate section for things that were specifically about gemma/shadow interactions together, whereas the other posts were about them in isolation. i thought i had more to say but i ultimately didn't, which i said at the top of the post, that i wanted to be able to make more of a case but i didn't actually have much. and i wanted to post it separately because i wanted to tie together the two reads and explain why shadow/gemma was my sort of "towncore" that i was intending to work with. i realized as i was writing it that some of the stuff i was saying about their solving each other (particularly on gemma's side) was already stuff i had talked about in my gemma post but oh well.
Hi Hunger!
You know, I actually think I recognize you... I played a game here once, many many years ago. Account name was "Dels" and I just couldn't get back into into that username with this new twitch thing, it wouldn't let me.
(Don't go look at, I was like 18 or something and it's probably embarrassing >_> I remember I idled out because I couldn't handle the 2-week days, as did everyone else from my homeboard who came to play)
Anyway.
This is the only post where I've really talked about your slot:
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/796109-team-mafia-game-1-the-death-of-stalin-day-2-twos?page=27#c1317
You'll notice that it's not really a scum case. Ultimately, it's a PoE thing. I just... really trust Gemma, my team trusts Vaimes strongly, we think Nancy is town, KJ is the vig, and I thiiink Shadow is still town, leaving me with just... you, sheep, and Lissa.
I know that sucks if you are town because there is nothing to argue against. You know Rhand is town, so if you have any thoughts on that stuff you could share it. (But I know not everyone tries to defend their slot's previous player) I promise I am a very reasonable person though and highly susceptible to rethinking things, so if you are town, please let's work together so that I can come around to townreading you. I just... don't make any promises.
-------------------------
i think lissa is just a wolf at this point.
i don’t feel any real attempt on her part to solve my allignment or interact with me.
i asked her to explain the reasons why she (and her team) feel i am scum and she gave me the same exact stuff she gave me a week ago.
like, a week ago i started by posting my gemma read and she said it was weird that i started with that (and then weird that i said i was excited to) and she named ONE part of the gemma read she didn’t like: that i gave gemma townpoints for ultimately concluding reg was town.
i ask her now, a week later, what are the reasons for me to be buried, she cites the same two things as her main reasons. it’s completely ignoring everything i have done since then. it feels like she can’t make an actual case so she’s just sticking to something really weak and outdated. (i’ve said this too but that’s literally playstyle stuff – i talk about town reads, etc. lissa knows this. and see above for why she’s simplifying the gemma/reg read)
beyond that i just keep getting the feeling that she is posting just to post. she keeps saying she needs time at her computer to post, she has a lot to say, etc, but whenever she does, i find its stuff that i just… have no response to. see: her thoughts about the rhand stuff earlier. (1604 no postlink just scroll up) she goes through my thoughts on rhand in quote chunks but all she really says in each of them is basically that she disagrees/leans towards the town reasons. i tried to respond to it and i just… there’s nothing to say. it doesn’t feel like a meaningful conversation. and that’s how i’ve felt about most of the responses i’ve gotten from lissa.
i said a week ago that i wanted to work with lissa because if she was town we should be able to get on the same page. and i just… haven’t got anything. i have a high high level of respect and love for lissa and i just think if she was town, we’d be getting along a lot better than this.
Now.
Now.
And this is the important part so everyone should read this, even if you disagree.
@Vaimes:
At some point, you are going to have to come around to the idea that I am town. Because right now I think we have solved or nearly solved this. I think the team is Rhand/Sheep/Lissa. If it’s not that, it’s Shadow in one of those places. (I still wanna look at Sheep to doublecheck but that’ll likely be tomorrow or later tonight.)
But let’s look at what’s actually happening in this game, because here is what I’ve been thinking about over the past few hours:
Gemma is town because she is. Vaimes is town because I’ve got a super strong team saying they’ve never read you wrong in 30 games and you are town. And Nancy is probably town because… she just is. I know, it’s lame. But, like… it is what it is. And the scum are probably frustrated about it because she’s someone they would want to mislynch. But =/. And then KJ is the vig
Now, I think those 4 are town, and I think those 4 basically cannot be lynched. Maybe Nancy, because she’s not in the exact same category as Gemma/Vaimes, but Gemma never is and unless my team changes their mind, they are likely going to hard-defend you using me as a mouthpiece if it ever somehow came up.
That leaves FIVE players who are NOT in the “townclear” section:
Myself, Shadow, Sheep, Lissa, Hungerhand
Theoretically, that list of five has three scum in it.
And with 9 players alive, tomorrow we are down to 7 if we mislynch, which is lylo. So two mislynches loses the game.
IF we believe that scum believe that the aforementioned four are not going to be lynched, then that means: the 3 scum in that list of 5 want to win by getting mislynches of the other 2.
i.e. If Lissa is scum with Sheep/Rhand, she wants to win by getting Shadow and Dels lynched.
Does that all make sense so far?
And the same thing applies to anyone else in that group.
And I think if we’re looking at what the team is and what their gameplan is, and worldbuilding and etc, we have to have this PoV in mind.
Now, I’m conf biasing here if I say that Lissa/Sheep/Rhand being the team explains why her top two suspects are Shadow and myself, with sheep as the 3rd. But it makes sense. And that’s why I started thinking about all of this, because both Lissa and Rhand voted me today, and both have Shadow as a suspect as well.
That’s not to say the team of 3 wants to win by getting 2 mislynches in a row. They could bus somewhere. Certainly, they might not have much of a choice if we’re on the right track and we have the whole team in our sights.
But that’s the dynamic that’s going on here, so at the very least, let’s be open about it so that we make it harder for the scum to maneuver.
(without looking at it much, i know that both sheep and shadow have townread me today, shadow wolfreads rhand, not sure his thoughts on lissa or sheep… @shadow? sheep’s list has rhand down to null, lissa as towny, shadow a bit under null)
I have some team thoughts to share regarding some aspects of this but I’ll do that later. Just wanted to get this all off my chest. Vaimes, let me know what you think. Because if you’re town then I think now is the time for us to start working together. What do you think of all this? Because it seems Gemma and I are both in almost exactly the same place right now, and I would like to be able to get on the same page with you. Because from my PoV, if we have 4 lynches left, I’m almost certain that lynching sheep/rhand/lissa/shadow in some order wins the game.
(And Gemma I started looking at all of Lissa’s posts re. Roz and I’ll write a bit about that when I have time to post later)
also i just realized no one answered this: @sheep. my team is voxx and newcomb. lol.
I'd rather just see what you think of the game.
and yes!
like "why did you write another post about gemma/shadow", i'm sorry, i was trying to post thoughts on an entire 26-page day phase! i'm sorry if some of it is overkill but i wouldn't have written it if i didn't feel it was useful.
omg gemma there were literally 8 hours between posts there. 8 HOURS.
(and I'll warn you here in advance I don't get the points for noticing what you notice, sorry)
Here is every post of Lissa's progression on Roz. I also ended up linking some other posts regarding her EoD progression.
Early Reactions to Roz: (can generally be summarized as saying that Roz's reasons to suspect her are wrong and/or bad)
502, 506, 515, 710
Defense turns to suspicion:
718, 725 (Vote is here)
Big gap until Roz posts her big post. Reaction to that:
1072, 1081, 1101
Some non-Roz related posts follow:
1109 - Resistant to a Shadow lynch because people's reasons for it aren't good
1122 - "Are the wagons shadow and rhand?"
1125 - Wants to lynch Wheat
1133 - Votes Wheat
The End:
1173 - Says she'll move back to Roz since can't make Wheat viable
1201 - Votes roz.
1230 - Final comment on Roz.
The summary of this is that Roz pushes Lissa, essentially for... well, very similar reasons to why I had Lissa in my PoE. Because Lissa hadn't done anything for sure townie yet. Lissa's defense is basically to say that sure, she hasn't, but this is a weak reason because she doesn't leave her wolf range day 1 anyway.
Lissa's vote gets placed on Roz (correct me if I'm wrong) because Lissa doesn't like that Roz is saying that about her when Roz doesn't actually have experience playing with her. And she thinks the read is "generic" and that Roz is just looking for something to push.
And then Lissa doesn't know how to react to Roz's big post, she tries to go for Wheat because she doesn't wanna lynch shadow/rhand, then goes back to Roz.
The above is all summarizing and linking in case anyone else wants to look at.
My thoughts:
I... in retrospect I probably would've liked Roz for this. Seems Roz plays very similarly to me in the end. lol. But anyway, I guess I feel like Roz's reason to suspect Lissa is... pretty valid, as far as day 1 reasons go. I don't see why Lissa had such a problem with it, but meh. I think I said about Lissa earlier that this felt a bit... like I didn't really get why it merited a countervote. But meh. Not a strong point for or against Lissa imo.
The interesting part is the EoD. What do people think of this? Is a Lissa/Shadow/Rhand team ever possible here? It looks like Lissa tried to start a Wheat wagon to protect Shadow/Rhand. But that'd be sort of on-the-nose if she's buddied with them. She also didn't have to leave Roz at all.
I guess that's where my biggest issue is. Roz's first big post was... uh... useless, to put it lightly. Roz's second post though had actual reads in it. I'm kind of not a fan of how Lissa doesn't seem to know how to react to the first one, but then she gets back on Roz without ever really having any thoughts about Roz's second post, which was far more substantial.
I guess the only other thing I can say is that Lissa's read on Roz doesn't really progress much from the initial reason for voting. But Roz didn't really post a lot, and when she did, it was EoD with that weird stuff.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
And to Gemma, you said... note the times when she swears...?
506 "Like people's ability to read my really earlygame is a ******* meme."
1122 "Are the wagons shadow and rhand? Wtf"
I uhhhhhh.... that's all I've got. >_> Can I have a hint?
OH and in 515 Lissa quoted a Roz post and says: "team thinks the repeated "mostly" is wolfy here" . I have zero idea if it means anything but Lissa's team said the same thing about me using the word "honestly" a lot.
this is the happiest moment of my life
Unvote: Hunger
Vote: Lissa
better representation of where i'm currently at. something like lissa > rhand > sheep > shadow right now in terms of likelihood of them being the scum. ( continues to something like nancy > vaimes > gemma > KJ after that but i can't really order those because they are all for pretty different reasons)
Posts from Lissa with "wheat" in them:
Some early posts where she arrives at a sort of townlean on Wheat: (note there are a few more but they are very early reads that don't seem to play into the future progression so i didn't include)
244, 292, 299
Votes wheat in 435. reason 439
Readslist, Wheat 2nd from bottom 515
Posts where she admits her read on Wheat needs further examining:
735, 803
947 - Only post about wheat between that and the vote. Explains a thing she dislikes.
1132 is where she explains what makes her vote Wheat. See above links showing her EoD progression, not relinking them here.
[disclaimer it's possible where i missed some where she doesn't reference wheat by name. ctrl+f can only do so much.]
What do people think?
Looking at it, I feel... the progression is a lot less clear than I'd expect. She does explain why some Wheat posts bother her.
The initial vote on Wheat, the justification is... "Felt like he stuck out like a sore thumb among my townreads so I read him over again + why I backed off him and I wasn't really satisfied with it." It's... not really a lot considering he's then 2nd from bottom? Maybe I am missing some other posts but at a glance I don't think I am. Granted, day 1 read, it's fine.
But she says she's gonna be looking more into her Wheat read, but she doesn't seem to ever really get anywhere, just votes him anyway. She does list a few points against him though. She mostly votes him though for one very recent thing he did, not as a result of any new looking into it she's done.
@Lissa Can you explain your Wheat read throughout day 1 and help fill in some of the gaps between those posts? How much was Wheat a scumread after the initial vote, and what did your further looking into Wheat give you to make you want to vote him?
I FORGOT LMAO
I JUST POSTED 4-POSTED BY ACCIDENT
I started writing that post thinking I'd only press "post reply" once someone else posted
but by the time I finished writing it all i completely forgot and hit "post" without thinking!
I WAITED 8 HOURS EARLIER TO MAKE A 4TH POST - AND THEN I DID IT HERE BY ACCIDENT
LOL
and I completely forgot until just now that you already told me that! i didn't have to wait!
I had a funny moment a couple of days ago where I was writing things to Lissa, I don't remember what it was in response to but I nearly said to her "well you haven't done anything AI" then I was like, waaaaaait. Heh.
I kind of want to let other people respond to your recent posts before I do if that's okay. You didn't quite hit on the roz thing. I don't think anyone is going to get the swearing thing.
I am pretty convinced that sheep/Lissa is w/w, but in the world where Lissa is town then 1 of Dels/Vaimes would have to be mafia, so lynching Lissa over sheep has the benefit of clearing that up (and it's almost always just Dels in that world, since Dels town would require me/Newcomb/Voxx all being pocketed by Vaimes and just no).
So yeah I guess I don't mind much either way, I think they're both hits, lynch one vig the other, sort shadow/Hunger tomorrow.
So I was a bit wrong about my Nancy talk, actually. I had my team's thoughts in the forefront of my mind, plus remembered Gemma was clearing Nancy as well. (Lissa too) But Shadow does actually still have Nancy as scum, and I remember Vaimes didn't fully agree with our read. So Nancy might not necessarily be "someone who scum don't think they can get lynched"?
That said, the interesting thing is Shadow's read on Lissa.
In 1486 he says that Lissa is "always town", so it's actually a pretty strong read. The Vaimes read doesn't seem strong so much as he just isn't considering a scum!Vaimes right now? And I'm below Lissa, which is... sort of surprising considering Shadow was suspicious of Reg day one and others have given me a much tougher time?
But with KJ claimed vig, and based on his Rhand vote + his listing things he dislikes about Sheep, it seems like Shadow's team right now is Sheep/Hungerhand/Nancy.
I guess the interesting thing is that he has townreads on both me and Lissa. Doesn't exactly fit with the "scum agenda" I have in mind. But if he's scum with, like, Lissa and one of rhand/sheep then it could make sense? Idk. Just thinking out loud here really.
@Shadow sorry 'cause I already @'d you earlier but can you explain some of your overall view today with a bit more depth? how likely do you feel your bottom 3 are to be the team? if they're not, what's going on? and just generally curious your thoughts on my big gamestate post earlier, plus lissa stuff. what makes her so strong a read? and if you'll indulge my own selfishness, can you explain the TR on me a bit more? just feels a bit weird that others have given me a pretty tough time and you didn't.
Re: Nancy, I'm not clearing her just yet. I think she's probably town for a few reasons that could be stronger, and she's unaligned with both of my scum reads. I would lock clear her with a Lissa scum flip and would clear her until LyLo with a sheep scum flip.
i wouldn't say i'm "clearing" nancy either but my team and i just... think she's just town. it's not just for that stuff, but the fact that we have other reasons to feel that way makes me pretty confident in it. i do agree those anti-aligns seem likely though.
also yes gemma it is okay if you don't comment on the lissa stuff =P
i'm... kinda tired now but. can you explain the lynch one vig the other stuff? is it necessary/smart to shoot tonight? if we lynch one person in the PoE and they flip town, do we want to shoot another before reassessing? if the PoE is right then likely you hit scum i guess. and if we lynch someone and they flip scum do you shoot? sorry, i know i'm dumb, i am just bad with role stuff and theory. just want to make sure i understand the rationale behind it. i'm actually too tired to process again so i'll read in the morning. good night.
Anyway we don't really need to think too much about this yet, and I'm still holding out on Nancy being replaced so that I can potentially get there on her slot and not have to worry at all about worlds where she's being miscleared and Lissa is town. But like, in the world where she is mafia then all my reads are wrong, so, not a serious concern.
As such, if you think lynching sheep/Lissa accomplishes much the same thing, then I absolutely think a sheep lynch is the correct choice here.
In a world where Nancy is town, which I just...I don’t buy that clear on her, bu in that world, I would reconsider Lissa, but I also kind of think I’d have to reconsider Dels.
I don’t think it’s Dels though; I think scum!Dels’ team tells him to take the opportunity he had when he came into the game to jump on the push on me, because I’m pretty sure they know that once that mislynch momentum is gone, it won’t come back. That might be vain of me, but it’s where I’m at. (Also, there’s something to be said for WIM...actually, just for my own sanity, Dels, what’s your preferred alignment and why?)
I will consider what hunger does with this game, but again, I don’t think that slot is ever town, and I’m especially for that lynch because it basically clears me (unless you want to say I’m scum bussing, which... )
I would compromise with a sheep lynch, but I won’t support a Lissa lynch.
~~~~~
I kinda want to color some votecounts, but I think that can just wait until tomorrow for another eod to look at. And Gemma already did one.
Posts where Sheep displays early suspicion on Gemma and Shadow:
40 - Dislikes Gemma's entrance and Shadow's townread on Gemma, both lean w but not w/w together
43 - This is where sheep said Gemma prefers scum, which was later said to be untrue
44 - Votes Shadow
55 - Doesn't like Gemma's reads, feels like Gemma trying to pocket sheep by giving him the early TR
i have no opinion on this except that i don't really agree with the suspicion on either gemma or shadow, thought their entrances were pretty natural. maybe sheep is just paranoid though.
Continued Day 1 posts re. Shadow/Gemma:
173 - Sheep asks Wheat why Wheat scumreads shadow/gemma
285 - Still has them as w leans at 285
286 - Has an issue with Wheat scumreading Gemma for being excited. This is the one that bothers me because didn't sheep... also scumread Gemma for her early excitement? @Sheep can you explain why you asked Wheat to clarify him suspecting the same two people as you?
645 - Still has the Gemma read and explains why, check it out. I'm noting the "Gemma's scumgame is really strong" because I wonder if this is a copout reason sheep is using to hold onto the Gemma suspicion?
Posts where Sheep uses meta knowledge to read people:
70 - Sheep explains his meta with people. Nancy Drew of course he said earlier is an easy read. Note that he only played "one game with wisp where he didn't post much" (this is relevant soon)
225 - "nancy drew is gun to my head town"
426 - Dislikes Nancy's easy townread on sheep. Note consistency with sheep disliking people who TR him.
467 - Feels better about Nancy Drew. Between last post and this one is the bulk of the Nancy/Lissa argument, where (imo) Nancy reacted in a pretty town!Nancy way, so this makes sense. Also 428 where Nancy admits the TR was too strong/too easy.
645 - "nancy had something i disliked here and there but overall pretty towny"
1320 - day 2 readslist, nancy "towny".
1321 - day 2, wonders why nancy hasn't posted more. (nancy is... on vacation? so...?)
94 - Wisp waaayy different from his scumgame
592 - Defines Wisp's scumgame as more awkward, less intent to solve
1189 - Maintains that Wisp can't be scum this game.
This section I think is the strongest reason for why sheep could be town. First, the wisp stuff. Remember that Sheep said he only played one game with wisp. Sheep didn't set himself up as a wisp meta expert. So a scum!sheep doesn't have to meta-defend Wisp. But he does it anyway, a really strong defense, completely rules out the possibility of ever suspecting Wisp. Maybe this is because, as we've discussed, LW wasn't ever going to be a lynch anyway? But it does look good for Sheep. The other thing is the Nancy read. I know we already know this, but my god they are unlikely to be w/w, right? The interesting thing is that even though sheep calls Nancy an easy read from meta, Sheep's read on Nancy doesn't really come that easily, it's a bit turbulent at times (and still is to this very day). It ultimately ends up at townread every time though. I think if Sheep is scum and Nancy is town, Sheep can't get away with a scumread after saying he can read Nancy well. So it could be that Sheep is trying to not give Nancy the fullclear here? But in that case, why set yourself up as an expert Nancy reader at all? He has no problem giving Wisp the fullpass. So why not Nancy? I know the answer to all of this could just be "because scum do things sometimes" and, yeah, fair enough, but the nuanced progression on Nancy does actually look good. Very curious your thoughts on this, Gemma and anyone else.
Posts where Sheep townreads Lissa:
259 - Townpoints to Lissa. Reason quoted.
282 - Expands on why townpoints to Lissa
424 - Says Lissa's interaction with Nancy super villagery. (We all know which interaction this is)
Day 1 Various other notable reads:
75 - Gives Gemma/Wisp a not-w/w read, likely for this (74) chain of posts. (my opinion: eh? considering sheep already thought gemma was scum it's a bit of an odd read, it essentially means last town atm).
225 - Dislikes Reg townreading him for the early stuff. This is consistent with Sheep disliking Gemma's townread on him.
230 - Expands on Regfan read.
285 - Rhand null. idk why.
467 - Townreads Rhand for this post. No reason given.
741 - Starts to have an issue with Wheat
Approaching end of day:
902 - This seems important. This is where sheep starts to take EoD lynch stances. He's okay with shadow or eevee, NOT with wheat, and sheep explains that a previous point against Wheat was a misunderstanding. +townpoints for reasonableness tbh.
1064 - Sheep says a Roz lynch should happen if Roz refuses to claim despite being top wagon
1150 - Sheep continues to hate Roz's behaviour.
1154 - Votes Roz. Says a wheat lynch would be eh, and rhand lynch would be bad.
Day 2:
1314 - Notable early sort of defense of me from Rhand's question.
1320 - Reads list.
Note Gemma and Shadow still a "bit under null". Gemma called this out earlier saying why is she still there, I agree, that read looks stagnant as hell. Also noting the Lissa read. She has the same reason for townreading Lissa. I associate town!Sheep with constantly updating reads and throwing out new "ok X is looking better now" "hmmm X made a bad post actually, maybe they're not town" "nvm X looking better" and in this moment, my god am I feeling the Lissa/Sheep team here.
1391 - thinks Gemma's play is joke/fps because wolf gemma wouldn't seriously do that. (note this is where the "dels reaction towny af" stuff is but not linking 'cause we've already all seen/discussed that)
1463 - Finally admits that Gemma's recent posting is better but still paranoid about her scumgame
Ooooookay.
So.
That ended up being a LOT more than I expected. You can sort of see my thoughts jump around here because I didn't edit anything.
So what do I think is the case for town!Sheep? Mostly just the Nancy/Wisp meta reads looking good. I really do think that. If Sheep is scum, it's good play.
But towards the end there, I... I'm kind of feeling just hit in the face with all sorts of things that I never saw before, that make me think Sheep is scum.
The Gemma read. It's stagnant. It's justified with paranoia. It starts on page 1 of the game and it never really changes until it gets called out day 2.
The Lissa read too. My god, the Lissa read. Sheep TR's Lissa for her Nancy progression and interaction essentially, and... that's it.
The Shadow read too. Where does it go? Sheep has Shadow as a w lean all day but never really seems to have much to say about the potential Shadow lynch near EoD? He says a shadow lynch is good but then he sort of just... goes for Roz? Because of Roz's refusal to claim, which is... fair enough I guess.
And most importantly. After seeing the "rhand null" post, followed by the "rhand lynch is bad" near EoD, I just went through sheep's ISO and ctrl+f'd "rhand".
Here is EVERY post in the game from sheep with "rhand" in it:
285, 301, 465, 467, 580, 1154, 1320
Okay, I did miss the post where he gave rhand a townread since it was unclear that that's why he was quoting it. But. This is... a really weak progression. Null. No reason given. Townread for one post. Then has Rhand as town in readslist and calls Rhand a bad lynch. Today after Rhand gets heat for his EoD, Rhand is down to null again. No reason given.
This REALLY looks like a sheep/rhand/lissa team. And I swear I'm not confbiasing because I honestly went into this thinking I might come out of it saying "actually sheep is okay, maybe it's actually shadow" It COULD be sheep/shadow somehow since sheep never really pushes shadow, just (i think?) leaves a vote on him all day but then switches to roz when things count? ... **** it could. i'm just going insane at this point lol i don't even know anymore. but i think sheep actually makes sense with the other 3 people in PoE.
Please tell me if I'm crazy or if you're seeing what I'm seeing here.
...Anyway, besides that stuff, I pointed out anything I feel is relevant, so feel free to share thoughts on any of it.
but that's not true, right? sheep doesn't fit with nancy because of obv reasons. sheep doesn't fit with gemma because of his nonstop paranoia of her. though by that logic he doesn't fit with shadow either so nvm, i was overreacting on that. sheep wouldn't have fit with LW for the super-super-defense. sheep wouldn't have fit with Roz, for, y'know, the vote. sheep doesn't fit with me because idk why the hell would i write all this about sheep after defending him earlier if we are w/w.
So I don't think I'm just confbiasing for seeing ways that sheep makes sense with rhand/lissa/shadow. am I?
my preferred alignment is town because being a wolf sucks and i'm bad at it (or at least, i am nowadays, i didn't use to be) and i get very very self-conscious about it. it's stressful, and in my recent wolf games, i've realized that i just... don't know how to do it. i also just really really really hate lying to people.
So I'm gonna dial it down and try to chill for the next week. Give people like sheep, KJ, Hunger, Nancy (if she ever comes back) a chance to actually read everything and catch up.
I'll be following along so tag me if you have any questions or responses and etc, there's just no point in me overloading the thread and I don't really have anything else to say, pretty happy with these conclusions and I'll go mad if I don't figure out how to stay patient because we're not getting a flip for another week anyway.
I think all my cards are on the table at this point, so it is what it is.
The only thing I said I'd do but never did was post stuff about Vaimes, but he is likely just town so there's no point. I'll add postnums to my d1 notes at some point before EoD and share them just in case I die and anyone wants to look at it, but whatever. I'm not writing an actual casepost about Vaimes.
my team has some disagreement about if rhand/shadow can be w/w or not. one team member had said they are anti-align for sure. another questioned this.
they pointed out these votals:
and
my team said that shadow's vote is "sticky" which i think means it looks stagnant and maybe looks like one of those "just vote your buddy and never move, unnaturally" type of bus votes
they said it's prime bussing position at the peak of the rhand wagon in 1.9, and that he ends there as well. (this isn't really accurate, he moves over to roz for quite a while. actually @shadow why did you end back on rhand? you seemed pretty anti-roz?)
i said i don't really agree, they were pretty against each other. my team said, but were they really pushing it in a way that'd get the other person lynched? i said, eh, shadow did switch his vote roz eventually and only went back to rhand when rhand was clearly not gonna happen. and rhand moved to roz, and hey i remember rhand's post saying he's abandoning the shadow wagon because not enough people were interested in it.
my team said is shadow hardpushing rhand today? i said sort of, shadow is voting rhand, but not really pushing heavily. my team said they think shadow should be more intensely against rhand considering it was the counterwagon to a townie and they ended on it. they said shadow could be pushing it for credit, not because he really believes it. they said maybe the fact that neither was trying to get "credit" means its not w/w, but they think it'd be a pretty lackluster strategy if shadow was w and rhand was v.
i have no strong opinions on this stuff but @vaimes i think this is more your alley? i think my team makes a good point though that shadow/rhand could be together, think my team thoughts earlier saying it's definitely not-w/w is a bit premature.
and with that i'm really off for real.
Talk about how Nancy/sheep can be a team. Talk about why Nancy is mafia in a way that actually engages with the reasoning put forth about her rather than just writing it off or calling something it isn't.
Talk about your Lissa town read.
Talk about why you've barely been pushing Rhand slot all game despite having a strong scum read. Talk about why you're rolling your eyes at the idea that anyone could think you're together.
Talk about why you're content with a sheep lynch when you have what looks like a lock scum read on Hunger.
Talk about why Nancy town would mean you would have to reconsider Dels.
To be completely frank, none of these thoughts seem real to me. Your reasoning for town reading Dels ignores the vast majority of his content this game over a narrow view of his read on you, and the way you've phrased it as a mislynch momentum thing feels self-serving and fake, like the real point of the read is to suggest that you're town more than that Dels is town. Your view of the game seems extremely disjointed.
I might be getting my laptop back today which is really exciting, I can stop living in hell maybe!
i have thoughts but i am on timeout. (there's no zipped mouth emoji here smh)
but good post on shadow.
i'm the type to just lynch my strongest scumread so we'll see.
(I usually... do... though...)
I knew I wouldn't have much time to post or read the thread right away and want to interact. I happen to know for a fact you are either misguided or scum so I'd like an interaction point with you and your view on me/the game state. Why's it so hard to explain a read? Also, if the rest of the game is as wall-y as this page...I might not actually read the whole thing.
Dels
Sounds familiar! Actually, I think I know what game it was. First game with Sir Chris and crew from Gamefaqs? I think we scum read each other the first couple days and were t/t.
I should be able to start catching up tomorrow.
is that a replacement?
Hi-fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiive
GUYS I HAVE A COMPUTER I AM SO EXCITED WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE