Rhand/Del/sheep? Without checking to see if that works. idfk on Nancy but people are dancing around a ~reason~ she's town, so whatever.
The [reason] thing is about the redacted ongoing reference, where she said Lissa shouldn't scum read her because she was only saying the same thing a villager said in a game she was in.
How much stock are you putting into the Lissa/Rhand thing, where she's clearing him for one very specific thing? Because if I squint I can see it as a buddy thing, you can just keep pointing back to it and don't need to justify whatever else they're doing.
But at the same time, I feel like that's an awful w/w strategy, help.
Hey Team N1 NK. Lock clear me or I'll slap Del so hard all three of you will feel it.
they basically said (yesterday, not just now) that they don't want to put in the effort for the "lock clear" until there's any actual reason to doubt you. they said their current skimming was enough. which they were saying back before KJ's claim and they thought the game could just be an easy KJ/rhand/sheep team. i will check to see if this has changed but trust me they have told me you are town and i've basically accepted it. i can ask them again though.
(from the sounds of it with how good they are at reading you, i agree, it's unlikely you'd taunt them like that as a wolf)
they say to give you a lazy clear just for that.
and they repeated that they don't feel the need to go deeper than that yet, but they said that yes KJ being V is a problem but that even then it's probably still not you and they're gonna be digging elsewhere
Hey Team N1 NK. Lock clear me or I'll slap Del so hard all three of you will feel it.
they basically said (yesterday, not just now) that they don't want to put in the effort for the "lock clear" until there's any actual reason to doubt you. they said their current skimming was enough. which they were saying back before KJ's claim and they thought the game could just be an easy KJ/rhand/sheep team. i will check to see if this has changed but trust me they have told me you are town and i've basically accepted it. i can ask them again though.
[quote from="Gemma »" url="/forums/community-forums/mafia/796109-team-mafia-game-1-the-death-of-stalin-day-2-twos?comment=1547"]How much stock are you putting into the Lissa/Rhand thing, where she's clearing him for one very specific thing? Because if I squint I can see it as a buddy thing, you can just keep pointing back to it and don't need to justify whatever else they're doing.
But at the same time, I feel like that's an awful w/w strategy, help.
my team says that lissa does have a strong aversion to bussing, but they feel like focusing on one specific pinponted thing like that is a bit too on the nose and she might have more depth if she was defending a buddy
my two cents is that when i was reading day 1, the exact post lissa referenced for why rhand was town to her is the major post that made me think rhand was town.
(from the sounds of it with how good they are at reading you, i agree, it's unlikely you'd taunt them like that as a wolf)
they say to give you a lazy clear just for that.
and they repeated that they don't feel the need to go deeper than that yet, but they said that yes KJ being V is a problem but that even then it's probably still not you and they're gonna be digging elsewhere
Rhand/Del/sheep? Without checking to see if that works. idfk on Nancy but people are dancing around a ~reason~ she's town, so whatever.
The [reason] thing is about the redacted ongoing reference, where she said Lissa shouldn't scum read her because she was only saying the same thing a villager said in a game she was in.
How much stock are you putting into the Lissa/Rhand thing, where she's clearing him for one very specific thing? Because if I squint I can see it as a buddy thing, you can just keep pointing back to it and don't need to justify whatever else they're doing.
But at the same time, I feel like that's an awful w/w strategy, help.
That's exactly why I think it's unaligned, because Rhand was being pretty heavily scum read, she was one of the only people town reading him, and she wasn't behaving as if she really thought her read would change any minds. It just doesn't feel like trying to save a buddy and it would look awful for her when he flipped, and she has to know he is always flipping. I don't think it rules them out, but it's a pretty unintuitive approach if they're together. She also just wasn't really trying to buddy up to Last in the way I think she might as Rhand's partner, and killing Last makes no sense if that's her play.
@gemma: i was mostly asking you your opinion on shadow's other responses, not the stuff he said about you. since you're the one who wanted to look into his progressions/reasoning for votes. personally i kinda think all his answers are fine so i'm comfortable sticking with my townread for now (even after the KJ claim), it's not as strong as before, but I don't really... see any problem with shadow's answers. seems like you don't either?
@lissa: well i guess there's a difference between the "i was excited to" and just... the fact that i did at all, but, yeah, i equated them since it's basically all the same issue to me. i still have nothing else to say about that. i think we've already proven that gemma wasn't even super-concensus, but even if she was the post probably would've been the same. i find it weird that your team has an issue with this because i was just in a game with ara where i'd come in and post a ton of paragraphs about why someone was town and she'd be like "uhhhhhh well we already thought they were town but ok" but even then it does feel like that's the only thing you've really had an issue with with me. i know we've never actually played a game together other than mashes, but it's just really weird to be suspected for something that... like, is just totally normal for me, and it's weird that you don't seem to have reasons beyond that. but i know you've said you're waiting till you have more time to post so i'm not jumping to any conclusions.
@gemma re. sheep: i feel like you did imply something else originally, but anyway, if your point is that sheep shouldn't have thought shadow's thought is fake just because it's wrong... idk. i still don't feel that really... is scummy. >_> sorry, i feel this hasn't been a productive line of inquiry. it's just not a post of sheep's that pings me, sorry.
@gemma re. your post on me, i'm not sure there's anything i can really defend there, except that i'm not sure why you'd say the nancy read is "coming at it from the side" when you seem to... agree with most of the points? again i think this may be a playstyle thing because your issue with my shadow case and maybe the nancy case is you feel like i'm only pointing out certain things, and with shadow i didn't look at like, his progressions and stuff as a whole? and with nancy i can identify reasons for her to be town, and my scum reasons is just "well she hasn't done that much hunting so maybe" and i think it's the same sort of playstyle thing I'm running into with vaimes, which is that I'm mostly looking for reasons to townread people, I'm not necessarily looking at... their overall body of work? in the same way that many players would when they scumhunt? (or rather, townhunt) I only bring up the points that I feel are unique to me and my perspective
I mean idk how I’m supposed to answer this
Im not expressing who/how many of my team feel things because rules
Also what game was this for my own meta looking purposes
Also my team wants me to bury you and that adds onto it
@gemma: i was mostly asking you your opinion on shadow's other responses, not the stuff he said about you. since you're the one who wanted to look into his progressions/reasoning for votes. personally i kinda think all his answers are fine so i'm comfortable sticking with my townread for now (even after the KJ claim), it's not as strong as before, but I don't really... see any problem with shadow's answers. seems like you don't either?
@lissa: well i guess there's a difference between the "i was excited to" and just... the fact that i did at all, but, yeah, i equated them since it's basically all the same issue to me. i still have nothing else to say about that. i think we've already proven that gemma wasn't even super-concensus, but even if she was the post probably would've been the same. i find it weird that your team has an issue with this because i was just in a game with ara where i'd come in and post a ton of paragraphs about why someone was town and she'd be like "uhhhhhh well we already thought they were town but ok" but even then it does feel like that's the only thing you've really had an issue with with me. i know we've never actually played a game together other than mashes, but it's just really weird to be suspected for something that... like, is just totally normal for me, and it's weird that you don't seem to have reasons beyond that. but i know you've said you're waiting till you have more time to post so i'm not jumping to any conclusions.
@gemma re. sheep: i feel like you did imply something else originally, but anyway, if your point is that sheep shouldn't have thought shadow's thought is fake just because it's wrong... idk. i still don't feel that really... is scummy. >_> sorry, i feel this hasn't been a productive line of inquiry. it's just not a post of sheep's that pings me, sorry.
@gemma re. your post on me, i'm not sure there's anything i can really defend there, except that i'm not sure why you'd say the nancy read is "coming at it from the side" when you seem to... agree with most of the points? again i think this may be a playstyle thing because your issue with my shadow case and maybe the nancy case is you feel like i'm only pointing out certain things, and with shadow i didn't look at like, his progressions and stuff as a whole? and with nancy i can identify reasons for her to be town, and my scum reasons is just "well she hasn't done that much hunting so maybe" and i think it's the same sort of playstyle thing I'm running into with vaimes, which is that I'm mostly looking for reasons to townread people, I'm not necessarily looking at... their overall body of work? in the same way that many players would when they scumhunt? (or rather, townhunt) I only bring up the points that I feel are unique to me and my perspective
Urg I missed this post before. Um, I can't comment on the shadow stuff because I don't remember and it would take five years to go back and try to figure out which stuff you're referring to, sorry. I know I suck. I'm going to go to library later so I'll grab a computer and try to get back to you then.
I think it's 0% weird that you're not being comprehensive, I'm never comprehensive, I typically find a handful of things about someone that do a lot for me and the rest is mostly by the wayside. The sideways thing is hard to put into words right now, is like, the way you read into the defensiveness stuff, I had to really squint to see what you were getting at there, the way your read on shadow was really level-y, things like that. I agreed with a lot of the points but the way you got to them felt... awkward. Ish. Maybe you're just an awkward guy, I don't really know what any of this means about your alignment yet.
I am like 97% confident that killing Rhand and sheep gets us at least one hit, a lot less confident that we get two hits but chances are still decent. In the 3% world where Rhand/sheep is v/v, I'd lock Lissa as wolf. Nancy probably can't be with sheep, except maybe in another 3% type world where the team is Dels/sheep/Nancy and Reg tried to work that antialign between two buddies (which I don't think is real). I wouldn't bet the game on that antialign, but I probably wouldn't revisit it until LyLo or unless she does a bunch of scummy scum things when she gets off V/LA.
Vaimes continues to up his level and I feel good about him being town here. Lissa doesn't make sense with my PoE, that's a read I need to go over when I have a keyboard and mouse in front of me instead of this demon technology I'm using right now, but I'd put her around the ~88% mark right now, am kind of waiting for 2-3 things to clear themselves up before I really commit to that town read I think.
Unless I've got something really wrong (which isn't remotely out of the question, heh) then there has to be 1 between shadow/Dels. They can also be together in the world where either sheep or Rhand are town, I'll go over those worlds at some point before deadline.
Mostly I feel good about Vaimes/Lissa, think there's 1-2 in the middle grouping and 1-2 in the bottom grouping, with a really outside shot of Lissa if those slots flip town.
Actually yeah, I just ran that through in my head again and in the world where Rhand/sheep is v/v, Nancy becomes almost always a wolf, Lissa is never with Nancy, the team can be Lissa/Dels/shadow and we're completely screwed here, but I really really don't think that's almost ever the team, think Lissa is probably just town here.
Uh. That may have been confusing to people who aren't familiar with world building. Basically, there's only ever 1 between Nancy/Lissa, if Rhand/sheep are both town then you lock Lissa as mafia, clear Nancy, and the team is exactly Lissa/Dels/shadow. But because I town read Lissa more than Nancy and think there is always a wolf in the low posters, Rhand/sheep/Nancy, if the first two are town then Nancy becomes a wolf, which isn't compatible with the same PoE that puts Lissa as a wolf. In other words, if Rhand/sheep are both town, the worlds make no sense, which means they almost definitely aren't, and which also means Lissa is probably just town. I don't know if that made any more sense the second time but my phone is a piece of garbage and my hands are cramping from trying to deal with its intolerable, freeze-y as **** interface so I'm done.
Yeah I was pretty sure that was an L-1 vote. Is why I moved off. Thanks Eco
Rhand's Dels vote is nagl for Dels ngl, can see that being distancing in more worlds that I can see it being Rhand voting town, especially with the way Dels has kind of been scum reading Rhand but had to be dragged on to him, if Rhand is scum here. I'm kind of tossing up Rhand/Dels + 1 worlds in my head and it doesn't feel viscerally unlikely or anything. I think either of sheep/Nancy slot in there pretty easily, shadow can also be a third I think, though I would want to look over stuff again to make sure I'm not forcing the whole "power wolfing to save 1 bud while bussing the other" archetype.
I also do need to go over Rhand/shadow together soon, because I may be over leveling on the w/w feels. I think they make sense without Dels as well, but the w/w distancing stuff is like, day 1 Rhand voting shadow, shadow pushing other wagons, day 2 they've swapped positions, so it's definitely pretty weird.
This is all off the top of my head. Library is soon.
@Dels re: shadow, are you referring to 1486 / 1517? They don't really move the needle for me. shadow seems to be in a kind of holding pattern, it's roughly the same holding pattern that he has been in all game I think, and he doesn't seem to do much to break out of that or make waves. This general mood of his play this game is probably why I don't have a solid read on him. I think I tend to read people best when their emotions are affecting their play the most, and I don't feel like he's opened up that side of him much this game (this is part of why I suck at reading logical players, aside from how logic and me are just not friends). I felt some minor tremors of emotion from him yesterday that I'd like to try to capture and analyze because they felt town but maybe they just don't mean anything.
I could say that his response to you about Nancy feels mostly fine, because he hits a faint note of TWTBAW there that I like, but in the same breath I would have to say that it's also not out of range for him as a wolf. I wasn't telling him that the Nancy stuff was just playstyle and I think saying that I was is potentially him as a wolf being clingy with an easy wolf read, but it could just as easily be him as a villager so shrug.
I'm not going to be able to do anything with my read on him I don't think until I get my computer back, I just don't have enough time to spend at the library on this and I can't do it in the space of an hour or so because of how complicated he is to read. If you want me to talk about something he has done until then, quote it, give me words about your take on it, ask me for a specific angle, or something, because a general "did you have any issues with his recent stuff" doesn't help either of us get anywhere.
@Shadow: because he is widely townread, and according to my game view has a good grasp on the game.
There’s no way they can keep him alive until lylo. He won’t get lynched.
This is such a strange interaction.
And I'm out of time sadly. I got through Rhand's ISO at least.
You know what, I’ve had a bit of a discussion with my team and I want to try something.
Vote Lastwhisper
Last feels like he’s almost in antispew mode; his posts feel like himself, but with a reserved quality, like he’s really trying not to screw things up.
@shadow could you go over what that discussion looked like a little? I haven't really prodded at this yet but I've wondered about it, when I first read it I assumed the bit about trying something meant that you weren't really serious about your scum read, but it was something else?
I know you've been asked about your Last read but I don't feel like I've gotten anything from you that helped this make sense to me. What clicked for you that made you think Last was scum? Why did you want to lynch him over Rhand? What happened to your Rhand read, also, and why didn't you make any meaningful connection in your push on Last between him and Rhand, or vice versa? (Or did you?)
@Dels was there something you wanted some input on earlier? I remember you asking for people to respond to something that I couldn't respond to when you asked and I don't remember what I've responded to and what I haven't since then. I guess this can be a blanket "link me to anything of yours you want thoughts on" thing, swimming through your ISO on my phone makes want to cry and curl into a ball. I was avoiding commenting on your catch up stuff somewhat while it was happening and I may have neglected to go pick those things up later (somewhat, because I was also just demotivated). I'm also compiling a list of things to do when I have a computer.
I'm gonna go over your shadow read again now I think, since I haven't done that yet after reading his champs game.
Thank you again for writing up that shadow reasoning post, it's saving my life right now. I think his early read on Lissa has aged pretty well.
You know what, I’ve had a bit of a discussion with my team and I want to try something.
Vote Lastwhisper
Last feels like he’s almost in antispew mode; his posts feel like himself, but with a reserved quality, like he’s really trying not to screw things up.
@shadow could you go over what that discussion looked like a little? I haven't really prodded at this yet but I've wondered about it, when I first read it I assumed the bit about trying something meant that you weren't really serious about your scum read, but it was something else?
Most of the conversation was us talking about how Last was (exactly as I said in that quote) holding back and looking like he was trying not to mess up, rather than just posting every thought that came to his mind. One of my partners said (paraphrased): “how did you even get last to be a lowposter?”
We talked about whether it was AI and ended up deciding that it could be, and wanted to see if a somewhat random push on him would cause him to post more; which it seems like it did. So it wasn’t like, hardcore serious scum read, maybe just some wishful thinking.
Quote from Gemma »
I know you've been asked about your Last read but I don't feel like I've gotten anything from you that helped this make sense to me. What clicked for you that made you think Last was scum? Why did you want to lynch him over Rhand? What happened to your Rhand read, also, and why didn't you make any meaningful connection in your push on Last between him and Rhand, or vice versa? (Or did you?)
For a day one lynch, I would always want to lynch last over basically anyone if I thought he stood any chance of being scum, and I think his playstyle is somewhat -EV. My Rhand read didn’t “go” anywhere; but there’s no reason to just park a vote when I can do something with it.
Why would I make a meaningful connection on day one? I’d rather look at individuals and deal with them as individuals. Antialignments are one thing, they help solve later, but I’m not a good enough solver that verifying connections between two scum suspects early game is worthwhile to me. I think I’m good enough to peg one with confidence and go from there. (That doesn’t mean I’m ignoring the team aspect, this is specifically about early game.)
I spent a bit of time looking at votes, and sheep and Lissa spend a lot of time on any wagon other than Rhand, which is a little odd given Rhand's play if Rhand is town and either of them are mafia. I wasn't sure I believed Rhand/Lissa/sheep could be a thing, but if Rhand is mafia I think one of them is a lot more likely to be with him, and it's only a small step from there to that team.
This somewhat depends on Rhand's role. Lissa and sheep both look bad (Vaimes too but I'm pretty sure he's town and if he not he can collapse later and out himself), but if Rhand were to flip blocker it would look particularly bad for Lissa, and I think I would want to give shadow a bit of a pass for a short while, against my better judgement.
I'm kind of seeing more and more evidence for Rhand/sheep to be w/w which is... good, I guess, but I'm slightly worried given Rhand is a total no show, sheep is inactive, and I'm only really in thread with the people I am approximately town reading. I'm never comfortable in this kind of gamestate.
Gemma, can you elaborate on what you mean when you say I’m in a holding pattern?
As in, not quite pushing for/against things, just kind of holding on to the reads that you have and letting the game progress around you.
Wrt the connection thing, I generally notice if someone disagrees with my reads, and if I were pushing someone who had been hard defending one of my scum reads all day I would generally take account for that in my push on them, but we're different players which is fine.
Gemma, can you elaborate on what you mean when you say I’m in a holding pattern?
As in, not quite pushing for/against things, just kind of holding on to the reads that you have and letting the game progress around you.
Wrt the connection thing, I generally notice if someone disagrees with my reads, and if I were pushing someone who had been hard defending one of my scum reads all day I would generally take account for that in my push on them, but we're different players which is fine.
Thats...somewhat accurate I guess. I feel kind of like I get up in the morning and spend my entire morning Mafia commute answering questions from the several hours before and that leaves me with very little time to devote to any other big task. The rest of the day is kind of moments between work where I can do quick replies.
Wrt Rhand/Last the “mind meld” stuff was definitely of note, but I wasn’t trying to team build.
I went through EoD again and I feel funny saying this but I think Dels looks worse than anyone, even sheep. Mostly the way he's making walls and not engaging with anyone until about a minute before deadline. In Rhand v worlds this is particularly bad, because he knows he just doesn't need to show up.
Votes throughout the day kind of make sheep/shadow worse in Rhand v worlds, but sheep's engagement at EoD doesn't look half bad. sheep pops in and says to lynch roz, then checks out with a busy RL thing, but then shortly afterwards he's back in thread, pushing wagons again, and adding his voice to the "lynch outside Rhand" camp. There's not much scum motivation there if wagons are all on town, and I may be underestimating his scum play but I think he'd just not have come back into thread as a wolf in that world.
It was a very busy EoD, almost the entire game was in thread, which is kind of a head tilt of Rhand is town. I'd really appreciate anyone's thoughts on who looks like they're phoning it in in the hours leading up to the lynch, because of Rhand is a villager then the only scum under threat of lynch at EoD was shadow. I want to go over it again myself when I'm free of my phone.
I still think shadow is super likely to be a wolf if Rhand is town, I'm backing off the "always 1 in Rhand/sheep" slightly, Dels looks worse especially in Rhand v worlds, and sheep continues to look bad in Rhand w worlds.
@gemma: interestingly enough, someone else recently said that i “level myself”… i don’t remember who, but it was the first time i heard it. and you’re saying it now. does it mean that i, like, point out things about a person, but then sort of write them off? i.e. “well this is scummy but eh they wouldn’t do it” or “this is townie but they could do it as scum”? i do do that. quite frankly i can’t say i’m super bothered by it, because, well, i’m usually right. >_> (about the townreads. don’t trust my scumreads)
also i honestly had no idea my vote was putting it to L-1. wouldn’t have done it if i did.
@gemma: yes i was referring to shadow’s 1517 his answers to my questions. i honestly didn’t have anything to say about them either so i was just checking if you did. seems you don’t. so. no there isn’t anything else atm. i asked you about that one because it was specifically what you asked me to look into…
what’s strange about rhand’s post about LW? rhand has pretty consistently had LW as a strong townread. (perhaps… tooooo strong….???? omg tmi!)
i don’t remember what else i wanted input on. honestly though you’ve given thoughts on everything in the game at this point that you have interest in, and so have i, i’m not really sure what else there is to talk about. if i notice anything, i’ll let you know.
@shadow: wait how was last ever a lowposter? am i missing something?
@gemma nice find with the votal chart. again, wagon analysis not an area i look at. my team was talking about this earlier in teamchat (probably because you posted this lol) and they said that it really does look like a rhand/sheep/x team is possible. their first instinct was that maybe not just /lissa because that’d mean all 3 wolves on wagon.
then they said rhand/shadow aren’t w/w. and they said that its prooobably just 3 out of 4 of rhand/sheep/lissa/shadow. yes i know this isn’t useful because its kind of where we’re at anyway. and they said if shadow/rhand aren’t w/w then that’d just make lissa a wolf. i asked them if rhand is town would they just say shadow/sheep/lissa and they weren’t particularly enthused by it but admited it was possible. they said rhand/lissa fits together better than shadow/lissa does. (because lissa putting shadow as her strongest wolfread but not doing anything with it is weird as w/w)
also, another one of those unnecessary clarifications: i was essentially on rhand at the end of the day. tried voting there twice but got it wrong so i’m listed as being on last.
i’m never comfortable with this sort of thing either but at this point i just… i trust my townreads, and my team feels mostly the same way, and it’d be hard for me to justify turning that all around when i don’t see any reason to.
I went through EoD again and I feel funny saying this but I think Dels looks worse than anyone, even sheep. Mostly the way he's making walls and not engaging with anyone until about a minute before deadline. In Rhand v worlds this is particularly bad, because he knows he just doesn't need to show up.
it's a thing i do and i always feel bad about it in retrospect. i've been yelled at before for trying to get all my reads out properly and completely ignoring what is happening around me. i just generally feel like the best way for me to actually do something productive and help the game and maybe actually convince people is to write things up in that way, but i always try to do too much and it takes longer than i thought and i end up being useless. i basically wanted to solve the entire game in 4 hours and idk what i was thinking.
my team says they don't think rhand/shadow are v/v.
they also say that the worlds (based on the scum being in rhand/sheep/lissa/shadow, but rhand/shadow not being together?) are basically rhand/sheep/lissa, or sheep/lissa/shadow.
and they say based on this to vote sheep.
i don't think that logic is wrong, but i think rhand is scummier than sheep, and i honestly don't think it is the shadow/sheep/lissa world, so I'm kind of happy with my vote where it is.
I want to look at sheep over the weekend and see if I can actually come up with a concrete read there, even though at this point its seeming like sheep is likely scum. i'll also re-look through my d1 read notes on sheep and see if i i have anything that can contribute to this discussion.
@gemma: interestingly enough, someone else recently said that i “level myself”… i don’t remember who, but it was the first time i heard it. and you’re saying it now. does it mean that i, like, point out things about a person, but then sort of write them off? i.e. “well this is scummy but eh they wouldn’t do it” or “this is townie but they could do it as scum”? i do do that. quite frankly i can’t say i’m super bothered by it, because, well, i’m usually right. >_> (about the townreads. don’t trust my scumreads)
also i honestly had no idea my vote was putting it to L-1. wouldn’t have done it if i did.
@gemma: yes i was referring to shadow’s 1517 his answers to my questions. i honestly didn’t have anything to say about them either so i was just checking if you did. seems you don’t. so. no there isn’t anything else atm. i asked you about that one because it was specifically what you asked me to look into…
what’s strange about rhand’s post about LW? rhand has pretty consistently had LW as a strong townread. (perhaps… tooooo strong….???? omg tmi!)
i don’t remember what else i wanted input on. honestly though you’ve given thoughts on everything in the game at this point that you have interest in, and so have i, i’m not really sure what else there is to talk about. if i notice anything, i’ll let you know.
@shadow: wait how was last ever a lowposter? am i missing something?
@gemma nice find with the votal chart. again, wagon analysis not an area i look at. my team was talking about this earlier in teamchat (probably because you posted this lol) and they said that it really does look like a rhand/sheep/x team is possible. their first instinct was that maybe not just /lissa because that’d mean all 3 wolves on wagon.
then they said rhand/shadow aren’t w/w. and they said that its prooobably just 3 out of 4 of rhand/sheep/lissa/shadow. yes i know this isn’t useful because its kind of where we’re at anyway. and they said if shadow/rhand aren’t w/w then that’d just make lissa a wolf. i asked them if rhand is town would they just say shadow/sheep/lissa and they weren’t particularly enthused by it but admited it was possible. they said rhand/lissa fits together better than shadow/lissa does. (because lissa putting shadow as her strongest wolfread but not doing anything with it is weird as w/w)
also, another one of those unnecessary clarifications: i was essentially on rhand at the end of the day. tried voting there twice but got it wrong so i’m listed as being on last.
i’m never comfortable with this sort of thing either but at this point i just… i trust my townreads, and my team feels mostly the same way, and it’d be hard for me to justify turning that all around when i don’t see any reason to.
That's basically what leveling is, yeah. Which Rhand post about Last are you referring to, sorry?
If you're town then yeah it's pretty much a gimme that Lissa has to be the third wolf in Rhand/sheep worlds. You clear Nancy, give shadow room because he doesn't like bussing and I find it kinda hard to believe that Rhand would go ham on shadow of all scum partners, so yeah it just PoE's to Lissa. Vaimes is, as always, the sexiest of dark horses, but in a Rhand/sheep team I really don't think Vaimes is capable of hitting the notes he has hit this dayphase.
I'm not as comfortable with my town reads as you are, and you have a tighter PoE than I do since I'm basically an inno child at this point, but yes I appreciate that you may not feel like doing a lot. I'm kind of insatiable though so I'm probably going to be here right up until EoD putting hilarious amounts of effort into peeling away all the layers of onion.
my team says they don't think rhand/shadow are v/v.
they also say that the worlds (based on the scum being in rhand/sheep/lissa/shadow, but rhand/shadow not being together?) are basically rhand/sheep/lissa, or sheep/lissa/shadow.
and they say based on this to vote sheep.
i don't think that logic is wrong, but i think rhand is scummier than sheep, and i honestly don't think it is the shadow/sheep/lissa world, so I'm kind of happy with my vote where it is.
I want to look at sheep over the weekend and see if I can actually come up with a concrete read there, even though at this point its seeming like sheep is likely scum. i'll also re-look through my d1 read notes on sheep and see if i i have anything that can contribute to this discussion.
I have a huge amount of success with the logic they're using personally, so :thumb:
@Shadow: because he is widely townread, and according to my game view has a good grasp on the game.
There’s no way they can keep him alive until lylo. He won’t get lynched.
I actually think sheep is scummier than Rhand, heh. Funny thing, the other week I was in a game and had a lock antialign between two slots in the PoE, as well as an antialign between two other slots, one of which was a weak town read. Because of the two antialigns, all my worlds had this one slot as mafia, so I pulled off the lynch I had been pushing for two straight dayphases and shoved a CFD onto him. He flipped mafia, and the guy I had been pushing all game was his partner.
@Shadow: because he is widely townread, and according to my game view has a good grasp on the game.
There’s no way they can keep him alive until lylo. He won’t get lynched.
Von, any wild feelings about my PoE rn? Also, how spewing do you think sheep's "Dels so town" thing is, if sheep were to flip scum? Where are you at big picture wise at the moment?
i feel i had something else to say in response to you gemma but my brain is literally not able to function right now i can't read words or have thoughts.
Von, any wild feelings about my PoE rn? Also, how spewing do you think sheep's "Dels so town" thing is, if sheep were to flip scum? Where are you at big picture wise at the moment?
Not really. I came to my own PoE and it's p much the same as yours, though maybe not as eloquently refined.
Doesn't really do anything for me, because Dels seems like the kind of player people want to townread, so it'd be an easy line from scum!sheep.
Big picture is eh, I really want for people in the PoE to post, but as of now it's mostly just you and Del.
Gnight. I'm gonna take a break from thread for a while I think, is starting to feel a little narrative-y in my head after I started thinking about that other game and I really need some outside inputs. Plus I just don't think I am able to cover much more ground on my phone.
Yeah I was pretty sure that was an L-1 vote. Is why I moved off. Thanks Eco
Rhand's Dels vote is nagl for Dels ngl, can see that being distancing in more worlds that I can see it being Rhand voting town, especially with the way Dels has kind of been scum reading Rhand but had to be dragged on to him, if Rhand is scum here. I'm kind of tossing up Rhand/Dels + 1 worlds in my head and it doesn't feel viscerally unlikely or anything. I think either of sheep/Nancy slot in there pretty easily, shadow can also be a third I think, though I would want to look over stuff again to make sure I'm not forcing the whole "power wolfing to save 1 bud while bussing the other" archetype.
I also do need to go over Rhand/shadow together soon, because I may be over leveling on the w/w feels. I think they make sense without Dels as well, but the w/w distancing stuff is like, day 1 Rhand voting shadow, shadow pushing other wagons, day 2 they've swapped positions, so it's definitely pretty weird.
This is all off the top of my head. Library is soon.
I have both dels and shadow down in my head as not likely w/w with rhand though it's something I'd like to solidify.
@Dels was there something you wanted some input on earlier? I remember you asking for people to respond to something that I couldn't respond to when you asked and I don't remember what I've responded to and what I haven't since then. I guess this can be a blanket "link me to anything of yours you want thoughts on" thing, swimming through your ISO on my phone makes want to cry and curl into a ball. I was avoiding commenting on your catch up stuff somewhat while it was happening and I may have neglected to go pick those things up later (somewhat, because I was also just demotivated). I'm also compiling a list of things to do when I have a computer.
I'm gonna go over your shadow read again now I think, since I haven't done that yet after reading his champs game.
Thank you again for writing up that shadow reasoning post, it's saving my life right now. I think his early read on Lissa has aged pretty well.
wait wtf was it someone else that hated that shadow read who am I thinking of
Im not expressing who/how many of my team feel things because rules
Also what game was this for my own meta looking purposes
Also my team wants me to bury you and that adds onto it
fair enough re. team members, i'm prooooobably pushing it a bit.
i was referring to mountainous lite that i played with ara last month
what are their reasons for wanting to bury me?
oh boy.
They hated the part of your Gemma read where you loved that she came around to Reg town, that you were pretty much just giving her points for townreading your slot.
They thought the Gemma wall was a bunch of words to look like you cared while talking about the least useful possible target, and straight up wasting time.
i find it weird that your team has an issue with this because i was just in a game with ara where i'd come in and post a ton of paragraphs about why someone was town and she'd be like "uhhhhhh well we already thought they were town but ok" but even then it does feel like that's the only thing you've really had an issue with with me.
They think you overuse "honestly" to a wolfy degree. I'm a little less sure on this one and it definitely is something you just Do to some extent I recognize that, but I did some diving and the frequency seems tangibly higher here than the village games I looked at.
They feel pretty strongly that you are a wolf and need to die.
I feel like I am not doing this justice and I don't know how to convey how strongly they feel about all of this any better. I don't really like, do the "write several paragraphs about someone" thing and there really isn't several paragraphs to write anyway.
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But at the same time, I feel like that's an awful w/w strategy, help.
they basically said (yesterday, not just now) that they don't want to put in the effort for the "lock clear" until there's any actual reason to doubt you. they said their current skimming was enough. which they were saying back before KJ's claim and they thought the game could just be an easy KJ/rhand/sheep team. i will check to see if this has changed but trust me they have told me you are town and i've basically accepted it. i can ask them again though.
(from the sounds of it with how good they are at reading you, i agree, it's unlikely you'd taunt them like that as a wolf)
they say to give you a lazy clear just for that.
and they repeated that they don't feel the need to go deeper than that yet, but they said that yes KJ being V is a problem but that even then it's probably still not you and they're gonna be digging elsewhere
my team says that lissa does have a strong aversion to bussing, but they feel like focusing on one specific pinponted thing like that is a bit too on the nose and she might have more depth if she was defending a buddy
my two cents is that when i was reading day 1, the exact post lissa referenced for why rhand was town to her is the major post that made me think rhand was town.
Image leeching is so stupid.
they say they want to know if getting me lynched would count as a mislynch for regfan
You have to grab the actual image URL from the thumbnail search, or save the file onto your computer and upload it to imgur.
I mean idk how I’m supposed to answer this
Im not expressing who/how many of my team feel things because rules
Also what game was this for my own meta looking purposes
Also my team wants me to bury you and that adds onto it
I think it's 0% weird that you're not being comprehensive, I'm never comprehensive, I typically find a handful of things about someone that do a lot for me and the rest is mostly by the wayside. The sideways thing is hard to put into words right now, is like, the way you read into the defensiveness stuff, I had to really squint to see what you were getting at there, the way your read on shadow was really level-y, things like that. I agreed with a lot of the points but the way you got to them felt... awkward. Ish. Maybe you're just an awkward guy, I don't really know what any of this means about your alignment yet.
roz
LW
WG
KJ
Vaimes
Lissa
Nancy
shadow
Dels
sheep
Rhand
I am like 97% confident that killing Rhand and sheep gets us at least one hit, a lot less confident that we get two hits but chances are still decent. In the 3% world where Rhand/sheep is v/v, I'd lock Lissa as wolf. Nancy probably can't be with sheep, except maybe in another 3% type world where the team is Dels/sheep/Nancy and Reg tried to work that antialign between two buddies (which I don't think is real). I wouldn't bet the game on that antialign, but I probably wouldn't revisit it until LyLo or unless she does a bunch of scummy scum things when she gets off V/LA.
Vaimes continues to up his level and I feel good about him being town here. Lissa doesn't make sense with my PoE, that's a read I need to go over when I have a keyboard and mouse in front of me instead of this demon technology I'm using right now, but I'd put her around the ~88% mark right now, am kind of waiting for 2-3 things to clear themselves up before I really commit to that town read I think.
Unless I've got something really wrong (which isn't remotely out of the question, heh) then there has to be 1 between shadow/Dels. They can also be together in the world where either sheep or Rhand are town, I'll go over those worlds at some point before deadline.
Mostly I feel good about Vaimes/Lissa, think there's 1-2 in the middle grouping and 1-2 in the bottom grouping, with a really outside shot of Lissa if those slots flip town.
Um, this is definitely not just a fluff post... Have I mentioned that there's very probably at least 1 between Rhand/shadow?
Rhand - 3 (shadowlancerx, Vaimes, Dels_8)
Dels_8 - 1 (Rhand)
sheepsaysmeep - 1 (Gemma)
Not Voting - 4 (Killjoy, Lissa, Nancy Drew 39, sheepsaysmeep)
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
The deadline is 2200BST on Saturday 18th August.
Rhand's Dels vote is nagl for Dels ngl, can see that being distancing in more worlds that I can see it being Rhand voting town, especially with the way Dels has kind of been scum reading Rhand but had to be dragged on to him, if Rhand is scum here. I'm kind of tossing up Rhand/Dels + 1 worlds in my head and it doesn't feel viscerally unlikely or anything. I think either of sheep/Nancy slot in there pretty easily, shadow can also be a third I think, though I would want to look over stuff again to make sure I'm not forcing the whole "power wolfing to save 1 bud while bussing the other" archetype.
I also do need to go over Rhand/shadow together soon, because I may be over leveling on the w/w feels. I think they make sense without Dels as well, but the w/w distancing stuff is like, day 1 Rhand voting shadow, shadow pushing other wagons, day 2 they've swapped positions, so it's definitely pretty weird.
This is all off the top of my head. Library is soon.
I could say that his response to you about Nancy feels mostly fine, because he hits a faint note of TWTBAW there that I like, but in the same breath I would have to say that it's also not out of range for him as a wolf. I wasn't telling him that the Nancy stuff was just playstyle and I think saying that I was is potentially him as a wolf being clingy with an easy wolf read, but it could just as easily be him as a villager so shrug.
I'm not going to be able to do anything with my read on him I don't think until I get my computer back, I just don't have enough time to spend at the library on this and I can't do it in the space of an hour or so because of how complicated he is to read. If you want me to talk about something he has done until then, quote it, give me words about your take on it, ask me for a specific angle, or something, because a general "did you have any issues with his recent stuff" doesn't help either of us get anywhere.
Two slots with 1 post between them half way through the day phase is insane.
This is such a strange interaction.
And I'm out of time sadly. I got through Rhand's ISO at least.
I know you've been asked about your Last read but I don't feel like I've gotten anything from you that helped this make sense to me. What clicked for you that made you think Last was scum? Why did you want to lynch him over Rhand? What happened to your Rhand read, also, and why didn't you make any meaningful connection in your push on Last between him and Rhand, or vice versa? (Or did you?)
I'm gonna go over your shadow read again now I think, since I haven't done that yet after reading his champs game.
Thank you again for writing up that shadow reasoning post, it's saving my life right now. I think his early read on Lissa has aged pretty well.
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StaffWe talked about whether it was AI and ended up deciding that it could be, and wanted to see if a somewhat random push on him would cause him to post more; which it seems like it did. So it wasn’t like, hardcore serious scum read, maybe just some wishful thinking.For a day one lynch, I would always want to lynch last over basically anyone if I thought he stood any chance of being scum, and I think his playstyle is somewhat -EV. My Rhand read didn’t “go” anywhere; but there’s no reason to just park a vote when I can do something with it.
Why would I make a meaningful connection on day one? I’d rather look at individuals and deal with them as individuals. Antialignments are one thing, they help solve later, but I’m not a good enough solver that verifying connections between two scum suspects early game is worthwhile to me. I think I’m good enough to peg one with confidence and go from there. (That doesn’t mean I’m ignoring the team aspect, this is specifically about early game.)
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StaffThis somewhat depends on Rhand's role. Lissa and sheep both look bad (Vaimes too but I'm pretty sure he's town and if he not he can collapse later and out himself), but if Rhand were to flip blocker it would look particularly bad for Lissa, and I think I would want to give shadow a bit of a pass for a short while, against my better judgement.
I'm kind of seeing more and more evidence for Rhand/sheep to be w/w which is... good, I guess, but I'm slightly worried given Rhand is a total no show, sheep is inactive, and I'm only really in thread with the people I am approximately town reading. I'm never comfortable in this kind of gamestate.
Wrt the connection thing, I generally notice if someone disagrees with my reads, and if I were pushing someone who had been hard defending one of my scum reads all day I would generally take account for that in my push on them, but we're different players which is fine.
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StaffWrt Rhand/Last the “mind meld” stuff was definitely of note, but I wasn’t trying to team build.
fair enough re. team members, i'm prooooobably pushing it a bit.
i was referring to mountainous lite that i played with ara last month
what are their reasons for wanting to bury me?
Votes throughout the day kind of make sheep/shadow worse in Rhand v worlds, but sheep's engagement at EoD doesn't look half bad. sheep pops in and says to lynch roz, then checks out with a busy RL thing, but then shortly afterwards he's back in thread, pushing wagons again, and adding his voice to the "lynch outside Rhand" camp. There's not much scum motivation there if wagons are all on town, and I may be underestimating his scum play but I think he'd just not have come back into thread as a wolf in that world.
It was a very busy EoD, almost the entire game was in thread, which is kind of a head tilt of Rhand is town. I'd really appreciate anyone's thoughts on who looks like they're phoning it in in the hours leading up to the lynch, because of Rhand is a villager then the only scum under threat of lynch at EoD was shadow. I want to go over it again myself when I'm free of my phone.
I still think shadow is super likely to be a wolf if Rhand is town, I'm backing off the "always 1 in Rhand/sheep" slightly, Dels looks worse especially in Rhand v worlds, and sheep continues to look bad in Rhand w worlds.
also i honestly had no idea my vote was putting it to L-1. wouldn’t have done it if i did.
@gemma: yes i was referring to shadow’s 1517 his answers to my questions. i honestly didn’t have anything to say about them either so i was just checking if you did. seems you don’t. so. no there isn’t anything else atm. i asked you about that one because it was specifically what you asked me to look into…
what’s strange about rhand’s post about LW? rhand has pretty consistently had LW as a strong townread. (perhaps… tooooo strong….???? omg tmi!)
i don’t remember what else i wanted input on. honestly though you’ve given thoughts on everything in the game at this point that you have interest in, and so have i, i’m not really sure what else there is to talk about. if i notice anything, i’ll let you know.
@shadow: wait how was last ever a lowposter? am i missing something?
@gemma nice find with the votal chart. again, wagon analysis not an area i look at. my team was talking about this earlier in teamchat (probably because you posted this lol) and they said that it really does look like a rhand/sheep/x team is possible. their first instinct was that maybe not just /lissa because that’d mean all 3 wolves on wagon.
then they said rhand/shadow aren’t w/w. and they said that its prooobably just 3 out of 4 of rhand/sheep/lissa/shadow. yes i know this isn’t useful because its kind of where we’re at anyway. and they said if shadow/rhand aren’t w/w then that’d just make lissa a wolf. i asked them if rhand is town would they just say shadow/sheep/lissa and they weren’t particularly enthused by it but admited it was possible. they said rhand/lissa fits together better than shadow/lissa does. (because lissa putting shadow as her strongest wolfread but not doing anything with it is weird as w/w)
also, another one of those unnecessary clarifications: i was essentially on rhand at the end of the day. tried voting there twice but got it wrong so i’m listed as being on last.
i’m never comfortable with this sort of thing either but at this point i just… i trust my townreads, and my team feels mostly the same way, and it’d be hard for me to justify turning that all around when i don’t see any reason to.
it's a thing i do and i always feel bad about it in retrospect. i've been yelled at before for trying to get all my reads out properly and completely ignoring what is happening around me. i just generally feel like the best way for me to actually do something productive and help the game and maybe actually convince people is to write things up in that way, but i always try to do too much and it takes longer than i thought and i end up being useless. i basically wanted to solve the entire game in 4 hours and idk what i was thinking.
they also say that the worlds (based on the scum being in rhand/sheep/lissa/shadow, but rhand/shadow not being together?) are basically rhand/sheep/lissa, or sheep/lissa/shadow.
and they say based on this to vote sheep.
i don't think that logic is wrong, but i think rhand is scummier than sheep, and i honestly don't think it is the shadow/sheep/lissa world, so I'm kind of happy with my vote where it is.
I want to look at sheep over the weekend and see if I can actually come up with a concrete read there, even though at this point its seeming like sheep is likely scum. i'll also re-look through my d1 read notes on sheep and see if i i have anything that can contribute to this discussion.
If you're town then yeah it's pretty much a gimme that Lissa has to be the third wolf in Rhand/sheep worlds. You clear Nancy, give shadow room because he doesn't like bussing and I find it kinda hard to believe that Rhand would go ham on shadow of all scum partners, so yeah it just PoE's to Lissa. Vaimes is, as always, the sexiest of dark horses, but in a Rhand/sheep team I really don't think Vaimes is capable of hitting the notes he has hit this dayphase.
I'm not as comfortable with my town reads as you are, and you have a tighter PoE than I do since I'm basically an inno child at this point, but yes I appreciate that you may not feel like doing a lot. I'm kind of insatiable though so I'm probably going to be here right up until EoD putting hilarious amounts of effort into peeling away all the layers of onion.
Deja vu, hopefully.
see you tomorrow, goodnight.
Doesn't really do anything for me, because Dels seems like the kind of player people want to townread, so it'd be an easy line from scum!sheep.
Big picture is eh, I really want for people in the PoE to post, but as of now it's mostly just you and Del.
I have both dels and shadow down in my head as not likely w/w with rhand though it's something I'd like to solidify.wait wtf was it someone else that hated that shadow read who am I thinking of
oh boy.
They hated the part of your Gemma read where you loved that she came around to Reg town, that you were pretty much just giving her points for townreading your slot.
They thought the Gemma wall was a bunch of words to look like you cared while talking about the least useful possible target, and straight up wasting time.
They thought this was pretty wolfy:
They think you overuse "honestly" to a wolfy degree. I'm a little less sure on this one and it definitely is something you just Do to some extent I recognize that, but I did some diving and the frequency seems tangibly higher here than the village games I looked at.
They feel pretty strongly that you are a wolf and need to die.
I feel like I am not doing this justice and I don't know how to convey how strongly they feel about all of this any better. I don't really like, do the "write several paragraphs about someone" thing and there really isn't several paragraphs to write anyway.