I would send Mikey or myself in place of one of Vaimes or Wuffles unless you want the game to end on the spot.
I'm really thinking the scumteam is osie/mikey/KJ. KJ might be replaced with Vaimes, but I'm not sure.
Mikey has done almost nothing all game. This is much more in line with his scum self than his town self. I'm convinced he isn't town here and will not accept any mission with him on it.
The second mission failed either due to osie or due to KJ. KJ being scum would explain a lot except his play this game. Osie being scum would explain the first fail and it would mean that Vaimes is the second scum. Grapes proposal almost surely guarantees only one scum on the mission. The hard part is going to be the last mission.
@Kj: What do you think of grape's proposal.
@Osie: Who do you think is scum and why? Everything you said this game doesn't really make sense coming from a town mindset. Even if I'm wrong about everything else this game, I think you are scum just because your thoughts seem to try to sow discord instead of solving the game.
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@Osie: Who do you think is scum and why? Everything you said this game doesn't really make sense coming from a town mindset. Even if I'm wrong about everything else this game, I think you are scum just because your thoughts seem to try to sow discord instead of solving the game.
I have said this over and over again and provided a ton of reasoning. It's really dishonest to say I haven't tried to solve.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
It will fail
There's always a scum in you and wuffles, send killjoy instead
1 scum doesn't fail the mission.
@KJ "wanted to see what happened" is possibly the weakest answer to hang the results of a game on...
And jumping to Vez being scum as the simplest answer isn't the conclusion I'd reach even if I treated you as an IC.
Anyway my current view is that Osie and KJ managed to only put one fail in on the second mission which definitely isn't an Occams razor solution but makes the most sense behaviorally to me.
The only other world I can see is an Odmsie having a game from hell and just being wrong on everything and wuffles is scum who hasn't been sent on missions by chance and KJ didn't want to risk him being a second fail vote last mission.
@Osie and what in that ISO brought you to that conclusion?
I wasn't going to make more than 1 post tonight before bed but... For the moment, I'm not convinced of the alignment of Wuffles. But Vaimes is probably scum and one of Vez or Wuffles is likely too.
Because I think KJ is scum I'm forced to conclude Vaimes is town. I'll go into it more soon but I'm convinced KJ outed himself by choosing Vaimes as he did. And the more I think about it probably condemned wuffles in doing so.
I'm gonna yoink my "I am in a very vulnerable position right now and if Grape were scum here he could easily lynch me" townread of you from F&E and use it here. Cool? Cool.
Oh, and Grape, after completing part of a full person-by-person ISO with notetaking for the thread, I'm more inclined to believe a KJ-Vezok-Wuffles scumteam. Haven't gotten back to KJ (or you or Mikey) yet, but Vezok and Wuffles were both individually quite scummy, relation-wise somewhat scummy, and KJ is scummy by mechanics before even starting in on his ISO. Before starting to ISO Vaimes, I was at:
Town
Osieorb18 - Town
Grape/Mikey - Townie
Vezok - Slightly townie
Vaimes - Slightly scummy
Vezok/Wuffles - Scummy
KJ - Scum Scum
I might finish things after I've moved in if the game hasn't already ended by then.
So since no one is really being open I'm going to be: we don't get anymore mechanical information this game. This mission either has 4 passes or ends the game. So our relevant mechanical information is the votes leading to missions and that there was 1 fail in Osie/Vez/KJ and one in KJ/Vez/Vaimes.
The purest occams razor application says KJ is scum and accounts for both fails. Just assuming all the passes after mission 1 points to a spy team of Mikey/KJ/Wuffles. Which is 100% plausible and explains KJ's (previously) baffling inclusion of Vaimes in the last mission. KJ's inability to provide any explanation is just staggering.
Biggest hole in this mission is town!Osie. Which is hard for me to wrap my head around. The fast proposal without any discussion and his steadfast confidence here where he is promising he's read everything multiple times and has a revolutionary view of the game but isn't giving any insight into the why is just hard to stomach from town. Like being written off in this format is frustrating but the specific type of appeal here feels scummy to me. He's proposing a worldview that's completely upside down from standard, insisting he has given huge work to explain it (which to an extent he has and it was ignored because it was after he was the "obvious" fail in a mission) but giving nothing now in crunch time is hard to swallow.
Anyway my mission right now is to find to town in wuffles/Vaimes/osie/mikey. I'm reasonably confident Vaimes is one. And non vote count mechanics really points to Osie but my gut doesn't believe that team. If Vez is scum here I'm going to lose this game barring a miracle.
It will fail
There's always a scum in you and wuffles, send killjoy instead
1 scum doesn't fail the mission.
@KJ "wanted to see what happened" is possibly the weakest answer to hang the results of a game on...
And jumping to Vez being scum as the simplest answer isn't the conclusion I'd reach even if I treated you as an IC.
Anyway my current view is that Osie and KJ managed to only put one fail in on the second mission which definitely isn't an Occams razor solution but makes the most sense behaviorally to me.
The only other world I can see is an Odmsie having a game from hell and just being wrong on everything and wuffles is scum who hasn't been sent on missions by chance and KJ didn't want to risk him being a second fail vote last mission.
How am I hanging the results on anything? We still have two missions left. We had three at that point with two fails left before loss.
So the first fail was me/Vez/Osie. Second fail was me/Vez/Vaimes.
Vaimes low enthusiasm makes Osie/Vaimes/X (probably grape) the most plausible. Occums says Vez is scum who failed both the last two missions but his reactions and temperment has been good.
@Vez: I think there are two scum on this mission, so I'm inclined to reject.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@KJ this might be late night soccer brain talking but the string of thought to get from 2 town in wuffles, vaimes, grape from least to most scummy, to pick Vaimes to solve him, to immediately turn on Vez when the mission fails doesn't make any sense to me.
Grape: vez is most likely by Occums Razor and mechanics because he was on both failed missions. But again I think he's been behaviorally ok. So I'm figuring that the people who weren't us are the scum then.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Grape: vez is most likely by Occums Razor and mechanics because he was on both failed missions. But again I think he's been behaviorally ok. So I'm figuring that the people who weren't us are the scum then.
Sure but why did you take Vaimes if you suspected he might scum but a failed mission made you completely reevaluate.
@Mikey you're giving me nothing. I was convinced KJ was town yesterday and flipped there, but you're giving up on changing anyone's mind now. Like great you told me a team, give me something to dig into.
I didn't think he might be scum. I wasn't sure. I guess a better way to put it is: I didn't think he wasn't scum. As opposed to Wuffles who I had a slight town feel.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I didn't think he might be scum. I wasn't sure. I guess a better way to put it is: I didn't think he wasn't scum. As opposed to Wuffles who I had a slight town feel.
Exactly my point. If you felt that way you would have taken wuffles to give you the best chance to win on the spot. Instead you took Vaimes for information and proceeded to ignore it. And the only question is why and who are your buddies.
Send: Grape, Vez, Vaimes, and Osie.
Never had time to look at votes. Hopefully I didn't miss anything.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
And my point is that doing that increases the chance to lose at mission 5.
And what makes you so obviously scum is that it doesn't. Both give you the same information. None of wuffles, Vaimes, or myself had been so sending any one of us three provides identical information.
I just can't see KJ as town anymore and Wuffles being scum with him helps explain why he took Vaikes on the mission. I mean maybe I'm overthinking it and KJ just wanted Vaimes to take the fall but that doesn't make sense with him pushing Vez after the mission.
@Vez I don't feel great about taking Osie on the mission but I'm voting against anything with KJ.
Why did you go You/Vez/Vaimes over you/Vez/Wuffles?
And I voted yes because I want to know if I'm wrong about my townreads vOv
@Vaimes I may have read too much into it then.
Pass, Pass, Fail
It is now Discussion 4.1.
Grapefruit21 is the Mission Leader and has until 02:30 AM Eastern Time on July 17th to propose a mission team.
You may continue posting.
This comes as a surprise to nobody with any common sense.
There's always a scum in you and wuffles, send killjoy instead
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I want to be down with Grape's suggestion.
Why is there always scum in Grape and Wuffles? I'll reread, but I'd appreciate a more detailed explantion if it was just casually mentioned.
I would send Mikey or myself in place of one of Vaimes or Wuffles unless you want the game to end on the spot.
I'm really thinking the scumteam is osie/mikey/KJ. KJ might be replaced with Vaimes, but I'm not sure.
Mikey has done almost nothing all game. This is much more in line with his scum self than his town self. I'm convinced he isn't town here and will not accept any mission with him on it.
The second mission failed either due to osie or due to KJ. KJ being scum would explain a lot except his play this game. Osie being scum would explain the first fail and it would mean that Vaimes is the second scum. Grapes proposal almost surely guarantees only one scum on the mission. The hard part is going to be the last mission.
@Kj: What do you think of grape's proposal.
@Osie: Who do you think is scum and why? Everything you said this game doesn't really make sense coming from a town mindset. Even if I'm wrong about everything else this game, I think you are scum just because your thoughts seem to try to sow discord instead of solving the game.
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I have said this over and over again and provided a ton of reasoning. It's really dishonest to say I haven't tried to solve.
KJ, Vaimes, Wuffles
Possibly replace Wuffles with you or Mikey.
I'll explore what this all means after work. Occums says I was wrong about Vezok but I'm not feeling it.
1 scum doesn't fail the mission.
@KJ "wanted to see what happened" is possibly the weakest answer to hang the results of a game on...
And jumping to Vez being scum as the simplest answer isn't the conclusion I'd reach even if I treated you as an IC.
Anyway my current view is that Osie and KJ managed to only put one fail in on the second mission which definitely isn't an Occams razor solution but makes the most sense behaviorally to me.
The only other world I can see is an Odmsie having a game from hell and just being wrong on everything and wuffles is scum who hasn't been sent on missions by chance and KJ didn't want to risk him being a second fail vote last mission.
Where is the wuffles is scum confidence coming from?
Not proposing for a while still.
I'm saying that in the rare case that you are town, I look at Vezok and Mikey.
That was my impression from the 5 or 6 times I read through his ISO.
Also, "after all that?" Get over yourself. This is the kind of dishonest smear job play that Vaimes and KJ are already doing fine enough.
I wasn't going to make more than 1 post tonight before bed but... For the moment, I'm not convinced of the alignment of Wuffles. But Vaimes is probably scum and one of Vez or Wuffles is likely too.
Somewhat busy the next two days so V/LA until Tuesday.
I might put an eye into the thread here and there, but don't count on me posting. I'll try to make sure to message Silver with votes if applicable.
Town
Osieorb18 - Town
Grape/Mikey - Townie
Vezok - Slightly townie
Vaimes - Slightly scummy
Vezok/Wuffles - Scummy
KJ - Scum
Scum
I might finish things after I've moved in if the game hasn't already ended by then.
The purest occams razor application says KJ is scum and accounts for both fails. Just assuming all the passes after mission 1 points to a spy team of Mikey/KJ/Wuffles. Which is 100% plausible and explains KJ's (previously) baffling inclusion of Vaimes in the last mission. KJ's inability to provide any explanation is just staggering.
Biggest hole in this mission is town!Osie. Which is hard for me to wrap my head around. The fast proposal without any discussion and his steadfast confidence here where he is promising he's read everything multiple times and has a revolutionary view of the game but isn't giving any insight into the why is just hard to stomach from town. Like being written off in this format is frustrating but the specific type of appeal here feels scummy to me. He's proposing a worldview that's completely upside down from standard, insisting he has given huge work to explain it (which to an extent he has and it was ignored because it was after he was the "obvious" fail in a mission) but giving nothing now in crunch time is hard to swallow.
Anyway my mission right now is to find to town in wuffles/Vaimes/osie/mikey. I'm reasonably confident Vaimes is one. And non vote count mechanics really points to Osie but my gut doesn't believe that team. If Vez is scum here I'm going to lose this game barring a miracle.
So the first fail was me/Vez/Osie. Second fail was me/Vez/Vaimes.
Vaimes low enthusiasm makes Osie/Vaimes/X (probably grape) the most plausible. Occums says Vez is scum who failed both the last two missions but his reactions and temperment has been good.
@Vez: I think there are two scum on this mission, so I'm inclined to reject.
osie/mikey/kj seems the most plausible right now.
I think wuffles is town.
The only thing that is giving me pause is Vaimes. He had some townie glimmers, but not enough.
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Sure but why did you take Vaimes if you suspected he might scum but a failed mission made you completely reevaluate.
@Mikey you're giving me nothing. I was convinced KJ was town yesterday and flipped there, but you're giving up on changing anyone's mind now. Like great you told me a team, give me something to dig into.
Exactly my point. If you felt that way you would have taken wuffles to give you the best chance to win on the spot. Instead you took Vaimes for information and proceeded to ignore it. And the only question is why and who are your buddies.
Send: Grape, Vez, Vaimes, and Osie.
Never had time to look at votes. Hopefully I didn't miss anything.
And what makes you so obviously scum is that it doesn't. Both give you the same information. None of wuffles, Vaimes, or myself had been so sending any one of us three provides identical information.
vezokpiraka, Osieorb18, Grapefruit21, Vaimes
24 hours from now is ~09:00 Eastern Time on 17 July. You know the drill.
I'm starting to think grape is scum with osie and Vaimes and he put all his buddies on the mission to fool us.
What if we try me/wuffles/Kj/mikey?
But that also can't be right.
Gah. I don't like this game. It's too hard to figure out who is scum when you have the same people alive as in the beginning.
I'd rather lose on the last mission than in the fourth one.
I just can't pass a mission with osie. I'd rather have wuffles instead.
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@Vez I don't feel great about taking Osie on the mission but I'm voting against anything with KJ.
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I mean we either lose the game or learn nothing but yeah.
Everyone looks like scum, help.
(another ptap because I’ve been avoiding thinking about this game, am mobile, gonna vote yes but will post tomorrow when I’m home)