Fun, fun. I like me a good murder but first things first!
@Kami Hi how are you? What kind of player are you?
Dual-class Analyst/Bear.
So now the question becomes, who's willing to sacrifice their killing power to save Shadow, and why?
More likely to use it to kill Shadow's killer than to protect Shadow. Vigs > Docs.
when the doc is 100% guaranteed I’d say it’s actually better than a vig. Plus what if Dota is town? Then day 1 is completely wasted for the sake of vengeance?
I will consider that anyone who uses another scalpel in less than 3 days after the game started is scum claiming. DoTa now you can get useful and scumhunt, because you don't have any power over today.
@Shinichi: I think your name sounds weird. Nothing too special.
I am also fine. I'm not really a type of player. Mostly bad if that's a type.
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I will consider that anyone who uses another scalpel in less than 3 days after the game started is scum claiming. DoTa now you can get useful and scumhunt, because you don't have any power over today.
@Shinichi: I think your name sounds weird. Nothing too special.
I am also fine. I'm not really a type of player. Mostly bad if that's a type.
I don't like the situation you created, your limiting town by saying the next person to make a shot is scum. Also why did u protect so early?
Sure, i know full well their is plenty of room given with the type of post I have made. Would it have made much of a difference if I just randomly saved him later into the phase?
Ill admit his mechanics talk isn't looking to good but thats no where enough to warrent being shot in 24 hours.
Randomly would have been a problem, but if you had committed to saving him because you think he's town or leaving him to die because you think he's scum you would have at least been taking a side rather than fence sitting.
@Dota: I’m going to very strongly disagree that mechanics talk in a game like this is a scum tactic. Because of the special mechanics of lights out, staying silent means that’s any townies who don’t get it are disadvantaged.
True, but it was a plausible enough reason that I could give for targeting you. I didn't doubt that you would be saved, was more interested in the reactions from everyone. What are your thoughts on the reactions?
Where are you getting this idea that we only have two kills a day?
Any more than 2 kills on day one significantly lowers towns chance of winning.
I’m pretty set on Kami being scum here, his reaction to seeing me under fire when he came into the thread wasn’t a town reaction, and his response to Vezok deflecting for me is subtle shade on Vezok.
I think Dota is town, anyone wanting to strike at him needs a very good reason.
I also think Vezok is town, but I’m not going to rule out the deflect as a pocketing tool (but this is the less likely scenario).
Shinichi is more likely town as well, his instant willingness to deflect is a good look.
So we’re at:
Shadow
Dota
Vezok
Shin
Bur
Osie
DV
KamiI’m also interested to hear why Osie is speaking for DV.
@Kami: I never said I'm sure shadow isn't scum. I just think a scalpel this early is not useful for anyone and shifts the attention from scumhunting to useless talks.
With that out of the way, I do think shadow is town. All his posts come from a really good town mindset.
@dota: I don't really care about the scalpel. I'm just going to scumhunt and convince others to use theirs.
@Shinichi: I'm not limiting anyone. I don't have a scalpel today and I'm a single guy. I can only convince others to help me.
The post that is quoting me by Shinichi seems like scum whining they didn't get an easy few hours.
Right now I have
Town
Shadow
Dota
the rest
Shinichi
Scum
Also I can't read osie at all. I'm completely null on him.
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@Kami: I never said I'm sure shadow isn't scum. I just think a scalpel this early is not useful for anyone and shifts the attention from scumhunting to useless talks.
With that out of the way, I do think shadow is town. All his posts come from a really good town mindset.
What can one think of this post? Hmph.
Vezok for Raging Kavu. But maybe a little better. Hmm.
@DoTA: Mind if you elaborated your reads on me, Shin and shadow?
@shadow: What made you change your mind about DoTA? In #44 you asked him DoTA if he were scum and then you don't mention him again until #61 where he's your highest town read.
And could you elaborate your read on Kami while you're at it?
@vezok: Could you tell me, what posts and how they show shadow's towny mindset. I don't disagree with you on that shadow is more likely town, but I want to see what makes you think so.
And could you elaborate your scum read on Shin? I don't really see how that post seems like scum whining...
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
Mod: Does a kill stop pending ninja strikes? Specific example:
Hour 0: A strikes at B.
Hour 6: B strikes at C.
Hour 24: A resolves, B dies.
Hour 30: ??? - does C die?
C does die. Once a Ninja Strike has been used, the only way to prevent it is to Deflect it.
Additionally, the following has been added to the rules:
• Posting "No Kill" does not actually expend the Scalpel; it just indicates unwillingness to use it. A player may retract his/her "No Kill" at any time prior to the End of Day being announced.
Raynor grabs a clone and rips his leg off, then swings it around in a circle at knee-level, knocking a slew of ninjas to the ground while yelling Sweep the leg!
@Kami: I never said I'm sure shadow isn't scum. I just think a scalpel this early is not useful for anyone and shifts the attention from scumhunting to useless talks.
With that out of the way, I do think shadow is town. All his posts come from a really good town mindset.
What can one think of this post? Hmph.
Vezok for Raging Kavu. But maybe a little better. Hmm.
@Kami: I never said I'm sure shadow isn't scum. I just think a scalpel this early is not useful for anyone and shifts the attention from scumhunting to useless talks.
With that out of the way, I do think shadow is town. All his posts come from a really good town mindset.
What can one think of this post? Hmph.
Vezok for Raging Kavu. But maybe a little better. Hmm.
What does "raging kavu" mean in this context?
Shadow, still have an open question to you.
Ehh. He could go either way. What does Raging Kavu mean to you in this context?
@Kami: I never said I'm sure shadow isn't scum. I just think a scalpel this early is not useful for anyone and shifts the attention from scumhunting to useless talks.
With that out of the way, I do think shadow is town. All his posts come from a really good town mindset.
What can one think of this post? Hmph.
Vezok for Raging Kavu. But maybe a little better. Hmm.
Funny you say that. This was my profile picture on mafiascum for a long time.
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@Bur : Mostly #61 and the way he approached the setup gaming. I could see the idea coming from scum, but with how he reasoned with the others, I find it very hard to think it would come from scum. Also his reaction to getting scalpeled is exactly how I would expect town to act. I would expect scum to be just a little panicked, but shadow was this as an opportunity to scum hunt.
Side note: It's useless to wait for people to claim who would and who wouldn't save you as scum would easily fake the words.
About Shinichi: I don't really know how to better put it into words. To me that post feels like he was upset that I deflected the kill going for shadow, because he felt that was an opportunity to hide under the radar for scum while people discuss this. His rhetorical question about why I used it so early just further cements this. To be fair, this could come from town Shinichi as I don't really know his meta, but I'm doubtful about this. His other posts don't sway me one way or the other.
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@Bur:
Re Dota: I didn’t really change my mind so much as just solidify the read; I liked his follow up posts, and I think him taking a risk and making that first strike unilaterally points towards him being town.
Re Kami: His reaction felt like him containing real excitement that I was struck, and he immediately tried to plan for me dying and proceeding from there, rather than analyzing whether it was a good idea for me to live or not. The justification being that vigs > docs.
Oops. I missed it. I'ma still need you to explain more though.
Any more than 2 kills on day one significantly lowers towns chance of winning.
Why?
So if we kill more than 2 people, then we are doing so without flip info AND if we whiff it’s an instant loss.
2 kills gives us 2 flips (plus scum night kill) to work with and solve in final 5.
Interesting note though, based on cantrip’s clarification that dead players strikes still resolve, one failed strike does not doom us immediately. (A failed strike and block however do.)
As such, because 3 town deaths day one = game over, I think I’m going to keep my scalpel to end of day to prevent shenanigans.
@DoTA: Mind if you elaborated your reads on me, Shin and shadow?
Bur: Asking the right questions, focusing on behaviour. I'm reminded of Russian Roulette when I "caught" Terry. He kept talking about town needing to rely on behaviour analysis because of the odd kill mechanic, but he never did any analysis himself. You've actively engaged with the game. The post I've quoted is evidence enough, although there are numerous others I could pull up.
Same goes for Shadow, he's asking solid questions and digging into motivations. His reaction to my targeting him was also what I would expect from town, as scum he could easily have tried to turn that back on me. My reasons given for the attack were weak and could easily have turned into me fighting for my life. The fact that he hasn't is also a big factor in my read, he's invested in solving the game rather than pushing an easy kill.
With Shinichi, I had a light scumread on them for how safe that comment felt about deflecting off Shadow, but the more I read their posts the more I feel they should be in my null pile. I'm not 100% convinced they're town but neither can I say that they are scum because of X Y and Z reasons.
Oops. I missed it. I'ma still need you to explain more though.
Any more than 2 kills on day one significantly lowers towns chance of winning.
Why?
So if we kill more than 2 people, then we are doing so without flip info AND if we whiff it’s an instant loss.
Why is it an instant loss?
Hypothetical example: players are ABCDEFGH. A and B are scum.
ABC fire at DEF. DEF for whatever reason don't do anything about it. 3 players dead, all town.
Then GH fire at AB. Both scum dead, we win.
2 kills gives us 2 flips (plus scum night kill) to work with and solve in final 5.
Hoooold up.
Why are you assuming scum gets a night kill?
@Shinicky: Someone would save little old me? Nah. Also, I think you're town. Are you town or just scum mason again?
???????
OoG, don't worry about it.
I hate to say this, but you brought it up in game so I have to worry about it. Occam's razor is that one of you mentioned in scumchat that they're swamped and the other seconded that. Then you posted in game that you're both busy which is why you're not very active. If one or both of you is town then posting for another player to explain their activity levels just doesn't seem right. I'm not in any way implying that you are discussing the game outside of the thread in that situation, please understand that.
The problem now is that if you are townies then in day 2 it can be used as a "scumslip" to push a mislynch that loses town the game.
Right now I have an idea that could lead to town poe'ing this into a win, it would be to kill you and D_V as our two for today thereby either catching the slipped scum or removing a possible mislynch target for tomorrow. Assuming scum kill within myself/shadow/Bur toNight then tomorrow it's between Shin/Kami/Vezok to catch the two scum. If anyone in that grouping dies then we're in for a tough end game but at least scum don't have an easy out for a mislynch.
And sure, the scenario you mentioned could happen, but killing 5 players without a single flip is a terrible idea.
Yeah killing 5 might be a bad idea, but it looks like you're trying to do a comprehensive "game theory" analysis and basing it on faulty assumptions, or not covering all the scenarios.
The question is whether you're just town taking shortcuts in your reasoning or you're scum intentionally being misleading.
DoTA, why those two groupings? What distinguishes you/shadow/bur vs. me/shin/vezok?
@Kami: I’m basing my assumptions on the pregame and mid game math we did in the previous lights out game, which came to the conclusion that killing 2 people day one is the correct play.
And in general I feel as though I’ve justified it reasonably clearly; killing 2 people day 1 provides the most information available without risking the game being over if we are wrong on all kills. Killing a third (and beyond) player can be done day 2 but with flips to analyze with.
And sure, the scenario you mentioned could happen, but killing 5 players without a single flip is a terrible idea.
Yeah killing 5 might be a bad idea, but it looks like you're trying to do a comprehensive "game theory" analysis and basing it on faulty assumptions, or not covering all the scenarios.
The question is whether you're just town taking shortcuts in your reasoning or you're scum intentionally being misleading.
DoTA, why those two groupings? What distinguishes you/shadow/bur vs. me/shin/vezok?
Groupings are based on my Poe at the moment, I have Bur and Shadow are above you/shin/Vezok on my town list.
Yeah I wasn't in the previous lights out game, so referencing it looks like a giant hole in your math. Fine. It looks like the NK was actually messing up all of my math, so more of your assumptions work out than I expected.
However, optimal mechanical play needs to be balanced with actual behavioral analysis. Maximizing our kill-control or number of flips does nothing if we aim our kills wrong.
Here's a scenario. Two people have been killed D1 and you think you have a lock on a scumread. You suspect you might get NKed. Do you take the shot?
Yeah I wasn't in the previous lights out game, so referencing it looks like a giant hole in your math. Fine. It looks like the NK was actually messing up all of my math, so more of your assumptions work out than I expected.
However, optimal mechanical play needs to be balanced with actual behavioral analysis. Maximizing our kill-control or number of flips does nothing if we aim our kills wrong.
Here's a scenario. Two people have been killed D1 and you think you have a lock on a scumread. You suspect you might get NKed. Do you take the shot?
No, I don’t. I put my thoughts out there and then end the day. What if my third scum read looks much better on seeing one of the other flips? What if the scum go for the WIFOM kill? What if I’m just wrong and have now caused a loss because I was too sure of myself? (I’ve done this before, to glorious embarrassment)
On the other hand, each post Kami writes makes me feel worse and worse about him.
He obviously hasn't read the game or the rules and if you ISO him, it's just a bunch of fluff posts and posts about mechanics.
I don't really see the scumhunting anywhere.
Idk how I feel about shadow at the moment. I have a good gut feeling about him, but I'm still wary of him and his cute wolf-y face.
D_V needs to post.
Osie needs to talk about something else than Raging Kavu.
I'll be back soon, after I finish doing the model answers for my students' homework.
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
Hm. Would you press a button that gave you a 50/50 chance of guaranteeing your team wins/loses the game?
No...are you implying that you think that’s what I’m doing?
Not implying anything, trying to figure out thought process. You see, I would probably press that button. And I have played with players who would press it without hesitation.
Would you press the button if it was 55/45 for a win?
Hey bur why did you comment on 5 out of 7 players there
I have not much to say about either vezok or Shinichi. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm too tired to actually try to decipher Shinichi's posts and decided to go through vezok tomorrow.
Gun to head: If you had to decide the two people to die today right now, who'd you pick and why?
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
@Shinicky: Someone would save little old me? Nah. Also, I think you're town. Are you town or just scum mason again?
???????
OoG, don't worry about it.
I hate to say this, but you brought it up in game so I have to worry about it. Occam's razor is that one of you mentioned in scumchat that they're swamped and the other seconded that. Then you posted in game that you're both busy which is why you're not very active. If one or both of you is town then posting for another player to explain their activity levels just doesn't seem right. I'm not in any way implying that you are discussing the game outside of the thread in that situation, please understand that.
The problem now is that if you are townies then in day 2 it can be used as a "scumslip" to push a mislynch that loses town the game.
Right now I have an idea that could lead to town poe'ing this into a win, it would be to kill you and D_V as our two for today thereby either catching the slipped scum or removing a possible mislynch target for tomorrow. Assuming scum kill within myself/shadow/Bur toNight then tomorrow it's between Shin/Kami/Vezok to catch the two scum. If anyone in that grouping dies then we're in for a tough end game but at least scum don't have an easy out for a mislynch.
D_V and I were both working on his setup (Arkham). But enough OoG.
On the game, I don't like that Vezok said that thing putting stuff out of his hands, though I do like that he saved Shadow. At the same time, there's some wine there given that it's Day 1.
I'm super suspicious of Kami right now too.
Shadow is probably town?
Since I know I'm town and Vezok's statement is dumb, and I'm not seeing any other scumreads or action...
Sure, i know full well their is plenty of room given with the type of post I have made. Would it have made much of a difference if I just randomly saved him later into the phase?
Ill admit his mechanics talk isn't looking to good but thats no where enough to warrent being shot in 24 hours.
Randomly would have been a problem, but if you had committed to saving him because you think he's town or leaving him to die because you think he's scum you would have at least been taking a side rather than fence sitting.
Fair point thats a very fair point but i am a sporatic player, seems though i dont have to worry about it anymore
@Bur : Mostly #61 and the way he approached the setup gaming. I could see the idea coming from scum, but with how he reasoned with the others, I find it very hard to think it would come from scum. Also his reaction to getting scalpeled is exactly how I would expect town to act. I would expect scum to be just a little panicked, but shadow was this as an opportunity to scum hunt.
Side note: It's useless to wait for people to claim who would and who wouldn't save you as scum would easily fake the words.
About Shinichi: I don't really know how to better put it into words. To me that post feels like he was upset that I deflected the kill going for shadow, because he felt that was an opportunity to hide under the radar for scum while people discuss this. His rhetorical question about why I used it so early just further cements this. To be fair, this could come from town Shinichi as I don't really know his meta, but I'm doubtful about this. His other posts don't sway me one way or the other.
The words cant be faked but the interactions that will have happened due to the pressure of the kill would have been nice. I wasnt upset that you defelcted the kill like I said I would have done it myself if i had no reason to believe he was scum, its just you didnt say anything beforehand you just popped in deflecting the kill. Also how was my question rehtorical?
@Kami: I never said I'm sure shadow isn't scum. I just think a scalpel this early is not useful for anyone and shifts the attention from scumhunting to useless talks.
With that out of the way, I do think shadow is town. All his posts come from a really good town mindset.
@dota: I don't really care about the scalpel. I'm just going to scumhunt and convince others to use theirs.
@Shinichi: I'm not limiting anyone. I don't have a scalpel today and I'm a single guy. I can only convince others to help me.
The post that is quoting me by Shinichi seems like scum whining they didn't get an easy few hours.
Right now I have
Town
Shadow
Dota
the rest
Shinichi
Scum
Also I can't read osie at all. I'm completely null on him.
Ill shoot you i mean ur post and this one just make it easy for me to think you may be scum, also explain how your not limiting people? If ur not sure of his alignment why just jump into the thread with a doc shot? I may be against random death, but u kinda just negating all the pressure of the shot
Where are you getting this idea that we only have two kills a day?
Any more than 2 kills on day one significantly lowers towns chance of winning.
I’m pretty set on Kami being scum here, his reaction to seeing me under fire when he came into the thread wasn’t a town reaction, and his response to Vezok deflecting for me is subtle shade on Vezok.
I think Dota is town, anyone wanting to strike at him needs a very good reason.
I also think Vezok is town, but I’m not going to rule out the deflect as a pocketing tool (but this is the less likely scenario).
Shinichi is more likely town as well, his instant willingness to deflect is a good look.
So we’re at:
Shadow
Dota
Vezok
Shin
Bur
Osie
DV
KamiI’m also interested to hear why Osie is speaking for DV.
Ur town reading my reasoning while Dota seems to see it the other way around
I can kinda see the osie and DV beiing at the bottom but what concerns u about bursama?
3 kills would just be asking for a town lose
I am curious how u read Vezo as town, his spout about how if anymore people use the scalpel they're scum seems like its coming from scum
@DoTA: Mind if you elaborated your reads on me, Shin and shadow?
Bur: Asking the right questions, focusing on behaviour. I'm reminded of Russian Roulette when I "caught" Terry. He kept talking about town needing to rely on behaviour analysis because of the odd kill mechanic, but he never did any analysis himself. You've actively engaged with the game. The post I've quoted is evidence enough, although there are numerous others I could pull up.
Same goes for Shadow, he's asking solid questions and digging into motivations. His reaction to my targeting him was also what I would expect from town, as scum he could easily have tried to turn that back on me. My reasons given for the attack were weak and could easily have turned into me fighting for my life. The fact that he hasn't is also a big factor in my read, he's invested in solving the game rather than pushing an easy kill.
With Shinichi, I had a light scumread on them for how safe that comment felt about deflecting off Shadow, but the more I read their posts the more I feel they should be in my null pile. I'm not 100% convinced they're town but neither can I say that they are scum because of X Y and Z reasons.
Ive played with shadow twice now and both times he read me as town early on, both times he was scum XD. I dont think he would easily just twist words or attack with slight thinking on his part.
I cant comment on bur because idk anything about how he plays as for myself i feel like people are reading to into my statement which should be wifom lol.
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Where are you getting this idea that we only have two kills a day?
I will consider that anyone who uses another scalpel in less than 3 days after the game started is scum claiming. DoTa now you can get useful and scumhunt, because you don't have any power over today.
@Shinichi: I think your name sounds weird. Nothing too special.
I am also fine. I'm not really a type of player. Mostly bad if that's a type.
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D_V and I have both been pretty busy.
@Shinicky: Someone would save little old me? Nah. Also, I think you're town. Are you town or just scum mason again?
What's a vital
Also why?
So your a good analyst and a bear got it. Are you ok with shadow dieing ?
Also the idea of protect by murder seems extreme, but fun at the same ti
My name is from an anime lol
True, but it was a plausible enough reason that I could give for targeting you. I didn't doubt that you would be saved, was more interested in the reactions from everyone. What are your thoughts on the reactions?
+Town Shadow
Elaborate? Do you think that I would take that shot as scum?
And neither do you. How do you feel about that?
I’m pretty set on Kami being scum here, his reaction to seeing me under fire when he came into the thread wasn’t a town reaction, and his response to Vezok deflecting for me is subtle shade on Vezok.
I think Dota is town, anyone wanting to strike at him needs a very good reason.
I also think Vezok is town, but I’m not going to rule out the deflect as a pocketing tool (but this is the less likely scenario).
Shinichi is more likely town as well, his instant willingness to deflect is a good look.
So we’re at:
Shadow
Dota
Vezok
Shin
Bur
Osie
DV
Kami
I’m also interested to hear why Osie is speaking for DV.
So... you're making it so you don't have to contribute real reads since you can just go for the first person to use a scalpel. That's pretty scummy.
OoG, don't worry about it.
With that out of the way, I do think shadow is town. All his posts come from a really good town mindset.
@dota: I don't really care about the scalpel. I'm just going to scumhunt and convince others to use theirs.
@Shinichi: I'm not limiting anyone. I don't have a scalpel today and I'm a single guy. I can only convince others to help me.
The post that is quoting me by Shinichi seems like scum whining they didn't get an easy few hours.
Right now I have
Town
Shadow
Dota
the rest
Shinichi
Scum
Also I can't read osie at all. I'm completely null on him.
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What can one think of this post? Hmph.
Vezok for Raging Kavu. But maybe a little better. Hmm.
@shadow: What made you change your mind about DoTA? In #44 you asked him DoTA if he were scum and then you don't mention him again until #61 where he's your highest town read.
And could you elaborate your read on Kami while you're at it?
@vezok: Could you tell me, what posts and how they show shadow's towny mindset. I don't disagree with you on that shadow is more likely town, but I want to see what makes you think so.
And could you elaborate your scum read on Shin? I don't really see how that post seems like scum whining...
Ninja Strike Tracker:
shadowlancerx (0) - Struck by DoTArchon, Deflected by vezokpiraka.
Players Still Holding Scalpels:
1. Bur
2. D_V
3. KamikaziArchon
4. osieorb18
5. shadowlancerx
6. Shinichi
C does die. Once a Ninja Strike has been used, the only way to prevent it is to Deflect it.
Additionally, the following has been added to the rules:
• Posting "No Kill" does not actually expend the Scalpel; it just indicates unwillingness to use it. A player may retract his/her "No Kill" at any time prior to the End of Day being announced.
=====================================================================
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Shadow, still have an open question to you.
Ehh. He could go either way. What does Raging Kavu mean to you in this context?
Funny you say that. This was my profile picture on mafiascum for a long time.
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Side note: It's useless to wait for people to claim who would and who wouldn't save you as scum would easily fake the words.
About Shinichi: I don't really know how to better put it into words. To me that post feels like he was upset that I deflected the kill going for shadow, because he felt that was an opportunity to hide under the radar for scum while people discuss this. His rhetorical question about why I used it so early just further cements this. To be fair, this could come from town Shinichi as I don't really know his meta, but I'm doubtful about this. His other posts don't sway me one way or the other.
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Re Dota: I didn’t really change my mind so much as just solidify the read; I liked his follow up posts, and I think him taking a risk and making that first strike unilaterally points towards him being town.
Re Kami: His reaction felt like him containing real excitement that I was struck, and he immediately tried to plan for me dying and proceeding from there, rather than analyzing whether it was a good idea for me to live or not. The justification being that vigs > docs. ...I don’t think so?
Why?
2 kills gives us 2 flips (plus scum night kill) to work with and solve in final 5.
Interesting note though, based on cantrip’s clarification that dead players strikes still resolve, one failed strike does not doom us immediately. (A failed strike and block however do.)
As such, because 3 town deaths day one = game over, I think I’m going to keep my scalpel to end of day to prevent shenanigans.
Bur: Asking the right questions, focusing on behaviour. I'm reminded of Russian Roulette when I "caught" Terry. He kept talking about town needing to rely on behaviour analysis because of the odd kill mechanic, but he never did any analysis himself. You've actively engaged with the game. The post I've quoted is evidence enough, although there are numerous others I could pull up.
Same goes for Shadow, he's asking solid questions and digging into motivations. His reaction to my targeting him was also what I would expect from town, as scum he could easily have tried to turn that back on me. My reasons given for the attack were weak and could easily have turned into me fighting for my life. The fact that he hasn't is also a big factor in my read, he's invested in solving the game rather than pushing an easy kill.
With Shinichi, I had a light scumread on them for how safe that comment felt about deflecting off Shadow, but the more I read their posts the more I feel they should be in my null pile. I'm not 100% convinced they're town but neither can I say that they are scum because of X Y and Z reasons.
Hypothetical example: players are ABCDEFGH. A and B are scum.
ABC fire at DEF. DEF for whatever reason don't do anything about it. 3 players dead, all town.
Then GH fire at AB. Both scum dead, we win.
Hoooold up.
Why are you assuming scum gets a night kill?
The problem now is that if you are townies then in day 2 it can be used as a "scumslip" to push a mislynch that loses town the game.
Right now I have an idea that could lead to town poe'ing this into a win, it would be to kill you and D_V as our two for today thereby either catching the slipped scum or removing a possible mislynch target for tomorrow. Assuming scum kill within myself/shadow/Bur toNight then tomorrow it's between Shin/Kami/Vezok to catch the two scum. If anyone in that grouping dies then we're in for a tough end game but at least scum don't have an easy out for a mislynch.
Yeah killing 5 might be a bad idea, but it looks like you're trying to do a comprehensive "game theory" analysis and basing it on faulty assumptions, or not covering all the scenarios.
The question is whether you're just town taking shortcuts in your reasoning or you're scum intentionally being misleading.
DoTA, why those two groupings? What distinguishes you/shadow/bur vs. me/shin/vezok?
And in general I feel as though I’ve justified it reasonably clearly; killing 2 people day 1 provides the most information available without risking the game being over if we are wrong on all kills. Killing a third (and beyond) player can be done day 2 but with flips to analyze with.
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However, optimal mechanical play needs to be balanced with actual behavioral analysis. Maximizing our kill-control or number of flips does nothing if we aim our kills wrong.
Here's a scenario. Two people have been killed D1 and you think you have a lock on a scumread. You suspect you might get NKed. Do you take the shot?
On the other hand, each post Kami writes makes me feel worse and worse about him.
He obviously hasn't read the game or the rules and if you ISO him, it's just a bunch of fluff posts and posts about mechanics.
I don't really see the scumhunting anywhere.
Idk how I feel about shadow at the moment. I have a good gut feeling about him, but I'm still wary of him and his cute wolf-y face.
D_V needs to post.
Osie needs to talk about something else than Raging Kavu.
I'll be back soon, after I finish doing the model answers for my students' homework.
Would you press the button if it was 55/45 for a win?
I have not much to say about either vezok or Shinichi. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm too tired to actually try to decipher Shinichi's posts and decided to go through vezok tomorrow.
Gun to head: If you had to decide the two people to die today right now, who'd you pick and why?
D_V and I were both working on his setup (Arkham). But enough OoG.
On the game, I don't like that Vezok said that thing putting stuff out of his hands, though I do like that he saved Shadow. At the same time, there's some wine there given that it's Day 1.
I'm super suspicious of Kami right now too.
Shadow is probably town?
Since I know I'm town and Vezok's statement is dumb, and I'm not seeing any other scumreads or action...
Ninja Strike: KamikazeArchon
I'm going to resist the urge to counterkill for now. Tell me how you arrived at your suspicion.
[/quote]
Fair point thats a very fair point but i am a sporatic player, seems though i dont have to worry about it anymore
Idk its tempting to just shoot you or watch u burn in hell but i play off of random whims and no i aint scum or mason smh -.-
So confused at this Raging Kavu thing
The words cant be faked but the interactions that will have happened due to the pressure of the kill would have been nice. I wasnt upset that you defelcted the kill like I said I would have done it myself if i had no reason to believe he was scum, its just you didnt say anything beforehand you just popped in deflecting the kill. Also how was my question rehtorical?
Ill shoot you i mean ur post and this one just make it easy for me to think you may be scum, also explain how your not limiting people? If ur not sure of his alignment why just jump into the thread with a doc shot? I may be against random death, but u kinda just negating all the pressure of the shot
Ur town reading my reasoning while Dota seems to see it the other way around
I can kinda see the osie and DV beiing at the bottom but what concerns u about bursama?
3 kills would just be asking for a town lose
I am curious how u read Vezo as town, his spout about how if anymore people use the scalpel they're scum seems like its coming from scum
Ive played with shadow twice now and both times he read me as town early on, both times he was scum XD. I dont think he would easily just twist words or attack with slight thinking on his part.
I cant comment on bur because idk anything about how he plays as for myself i feel like people are reading to into my statement which should be wifom lol.